La défense iranienne a lancé lundi des exercices militaires à grande échelle avec la participation de l’aviation et de systèmes de défense aérienne, a rapporté l’agence Mehr. Ces man£uvres militaires, qui interviennent dans un contexte de réintroduction des sanctions américaines contre les secteurs pétrolier et financier iraniens, impliquent divers armements, a ajouté l’agence Mehr. Les manœuvres, qui dureront deux jours, couvriront plus de 500.000 kilomètres carrés du territoire iranien.
The post L’Iran lance des exercices militaires à « grande échelle » appeared first on .
Le parti dirigé par l'ancien ministre Marcel de Souza s'engage résolument dans les grands regroupements soutenant le chef de l'État. Le choix du Front républicain du Bénin (FRB) est porté sur le bloc Progressiste.
L'annonce a été faite, ce dimanche 4 novembre 2018, au cours d'une sortie politique. Le FRB voulant se conformer à la nouvelle donne s'engage à la formation de grands blocs, en conformant à la nouvelle charte des partis et au nouveau code électoral.
Dirigé par Marcel de Souza, le Front républicain pour une alternative politique (FRAP) a été créé par l'ancienne première dame Chantal de Souza Yayi. Devenu FRB, le parti fait allégeance à la majorité présidentielle. Déjà en discorde avec le régime du président Boni Yayi, Marcel de Souza a très tôt fait allégeance à la Rupture en soutenant au deuxième tour de présidentielle 2016, le candidat Patrice Talon. Ayant bénéficié de l'accord du gouvernement pour le maintien à son poste à la Commission de la Cedeao, Marcel de Souza avec le FRP s'allignent désormais dans le bloc Progressiste.
G.A.
Women and children at an internally displaced persons settlement 60km south of the town of Gode, in Ethiopia, reachable only along a dirt track through the desiccated landscape. Credit: James Jeffrey/IPS
By Dan Bloom
TAIPEI, Nov 5 2018 (IPS)
Amitav Ghosh is one of the world’s top novelists writing in the English language today, and Brooklyn-based author of “The Ibis Trilogy” has a new novel set for publication in June 2019.
Billed as a 350-page cli-fi novel set in several locations around the world, it’s historical fiction with a cli-fi theme this time. According to those who have had early peaks at the manuscript, “Gun Island” is about a descendant of a character named Neel who wants to learn more about his ancestry and who first appeared in the author’s earlier trilogy.
The well-received ”Ibis trilogy” was set in the first half of the 19th century and dealt with the opium trade between India and China that was run by the East India Company and the trafficking of coolies to Mauritius. The three books were titled “Sea of Poppies” (2008), “River of Smoke” (2011) and “Flood of Fire” (2015).
There really is a Gun Island off the coast of India, and according to book industry sources, that’s where Ghosh ”might” have taken the title for his much-anticipated new novel, his first in four years. Readers will have to wait for publication day in June 2019 to find out. The novel will appear first in India and Britain in early summer and later roll out in September in New York and Italy, according to Ghosh.
Amitav Ghosh. Credit: Gage Skidmore.
Meru Gokhale, editor-in-chief in the Literary Publishing unit of Penguin Random House India, who has read the book in manuscript form, said on her Twitter feed that “Amitav Ghosh’s new novel ‘Gun Island’ is amazing — lively, humane, fast-paced, almost mystical, contemporary, utterly engaged.”
Meanwhile, a brief online synopsis of the novel sets the scene this way: In Kolkata the main character of the novel named Dr. Anil Kumar Munshi meets, by complete chance, a distant relative named Kanai Dutt, who upends the scholar’s view of the world with a single Hindi word: ”bundook” (gun in English).
In the captivating story Ghosh tells within the 350-page novel, Munshi, a writer and a folklorist, at Dutt’s suggestion realizes that his family legacy may have deeper roots than he imagined, in the tale of a merchant that Munshi had always understood to be the stuff of Bengali legend.
Ghosh describes it as a story about a world wracked by climate change "in which creature and beings of every kind have been torn loose from their accustomed homes by the catastrophic processes of displacement that are now unfolding across the Earth at an ever-increasing pace."
And we’re off in a tale of an extraordinary journey will take readers from Kolkata to Venice and Sicily via a tangled route through the memories of those Munshi meets along the way. What emerges is an extraordinary portrait of a man groping toward a sense of what is happening around him, struggling to grasp, from within his accepted understanding of the world, the reality with which he is presented.
By the way, readers and literary critics around the world will be surprised to learn that the main charcater’s name of Munshi is also a fictitious name that Ghosh uses on his personal blog — “A.K. Munshi” — as a virtual pen name for Ghosh himself, which he has given to a ”virtual assistant” who handles the novelist’s reader and media email inquiries online.
The author of a book of essays in 2016 titled “The Great Derangement: Climate Change and the Unthinkable,” Ghosh, while not a climate activist per se has never-the-less found himself at the front lines of literary circles discussing the role of novels and movies that deal with global warming. In a way, “Gun Island” is the globe-trotting novelist’s attempt to write a cli-fi novel.
A self-admitted fan of some of Hollywood’s cli-fi disaster epics, such as ”The Day After Tomorrow” and ”Geostorm,” Ghosh recently told an interviewer that he enjoys those two films.
“I love them! I watch them obsessively,” he said, adding: “My climate scientist friends joke and laugh at me for this because the practical science in a movie like ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ is bad. But I find these movies very compelling. And I do think both film and television are very forward-leaning in dealing with climate change.”
As for his new novel, Ghosh describes it as a story about a world wracked by climate change “in which creature and beings of every kind have been torn loose from their accustomed homes by the catastrophic processes of displacement that are now unfolding across the Earth at an ever-increasing pace.”
“Climate change is the most important crisis of our times and it’s hitting us in the face every day,” he told a reporter in Canada in an email exchange. “Look at these devastating typhoons and tornadoes, or the wildfires in Canada and California. These are deadly serious weather events and lived experiences.”
Two years after publishing “The Great Derangement” to great fanfare among literary scholars worldwide, Ghosh now admits that the essays began as a sort of personal ”auto-critique,” challenging himself for failing to adequately tackle the issues of climate change in his own novels.
The result may very well be “Gun Island.”
The post Amitav Ghosh prepares ‘Gun Island’ for publication in 2019 appeared first on Inter Press Service.
This report is for the media and the general public.
The SMM recorded more ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions between the evenings of 2 and 3 November, compared with the previous reporting period. Between the evenings of 3 and 4 November, the Mission recorded fewer ceasefire violations in Donetsk region and a sharp increase in ceasefire violations in Luhansk region, compared with the previous 24 hours. The SMM recorded ceasefire violations inside the Stanytsia Luhanska and Zolote disengagement areas. On 4 November, the Mission heard an explosion 300-400m north of its location in Zolote-5/Mykhailivka as well as at least 15 bursts of heavy-machine-gun fire 500m from its location in the Stanytsia Luhanska disengagement area. It saw weapons in violation of withdrawal lines on both sides of the contact line. The Mission’s access remained restricted in all three disengagement areas. It was also restricted in Holmivskyi, near Novoazovsk – an area close to the border with the Russian Federation – and Verkhnoshyrokivske, and again near Zaichenko and Bezimenne.* The SMM facilitated and monitored adherence to the ceasefire to enable demining near Zolote-2/Karbonit and Nyzhnoteple. In Kyiv, the SMM monitored a public gathering organized in memory of Kateryna Handziuk, a Kherson city council official and civil society activist who died on 4 November after having suffered severe acid injuries in an attack on 31 July 2018.
In Donetsk region, between the evenings of 2 and 3 November, the SMM recorded more ceasefire violations,[1] including about 370 explosions, compared with the previous reporting period (about 230 explosions). Between the evenings of 3 and 4 November, the SMM recorded fewer ceasefire violations, including about 260 explosions, compared with the previous 24 hours.[2]
On the evening and night of 2-3 November, the SMM camera at the Donetsk Filtration Station (DFS) (15km north of Donetsk) recorded an explosion assessed as an incoming round, seven undetermined explosions and about 200 projectiles in flight (mostly from westerly to easterly directions), all at an assessed range of 1-5km at southerly directions. On the following day, the same camera recorded 12 explosions assessed as impacts of rounds of undetermined weapons 1-2km south, as well as 37 undetermined explosions and about 40 projectiles in flight (mostly from westerly to easterly directions), all at an assessed range of 1-5km at southerly directions. On the evening and night of 3-4 November, the same camera recorded three undetermined explosions and 19 projectiles in flight (mostly from north-westerly to south-easterly directions), all at an assessed range of 1-2km at south-westerly directions.
During the day on 3 November, positioned 1km north-west of the railway station in Yasynuvata (non-government-controlled, 16km north-east of Donetsk), the SMM heard 56 undetermined explosions and about 300 shots and bursts of heavy-machine-gun and small-arms fire, all at an assessed range of 1-6km at directions ranging from south to north-north-west. On the following day, at the same location, the Mission heard 23 undetermined explosions at an assessed range of 1-5km north-north-east and south-west.
On the same day, positioned on the eastern edge of Kamianka (government-controlled, 20km north of Donetsk), the SMM heard 14 undetermined explosions and ten bursts of small-arms fire, all at an assessed range of 3-5km south-south-east. The following day, positioned on the eastern edge of Kamianka, the SMM heard 22 explosions (16 assessed as outgoing rounds, two as impacts and the remainder undetermined) and ten bursts of heavy-machine-gun fire, all at an assessed range of 2-4km north-north-east and south-south-west.
During the day on 4 November, positioned at the central railway station in Donetsk city (non-government-controlled, 6km north-west of Donetsk city centre), the SMM heard 22 undetermined explosions and about 50 bursts and shots of heavy-machine-gun and small-arms fire, all at an assessed range of 1-4km north-east and north-north-west.
On the evening of 2 November, while in Horlivka (non-government-controlled, 39km north-east of Donetsk), the SMM heard about 90 undetermined explosions and about 40 bursts of heavy-machine-gun fire, all at an assessed range of 5-7km west-south-west and north-west. On the evening and night of 3-4 November, at the same location, the Mission heard 110 undetermined explosions and about 160 bursts of infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) cannon (30mm), anti-aircraft gun (ZU-23, 23mm) and heavy-machine-gun fire, all at an assessed range of 3-6km south-west, west-north-west and north-west.
On the evening of 2 November, while in Svitlodarsk (government-controlled, 57km north-east of Donetsk), the SMM heard 23 undetermined explosions and about 300 shots and bursts of automatic grenade launcher, heavy-machine-gun and small-arms fire, all at an assessed range of 3-4km south-south-east. The following day, the SMM heard about 90 undetermined explosions and 42 bursts of heavy-machine-gun fire, all at an assessed range of 3-7km south.
In Luhansk region, between the evenings of 2 and 3 November, the SMM recorded more ceasefire violations, including, however, fewer explosions (ten), compared with the previous reporting period (about 70 explosions). Between the evenings of 3 and 4 November, the SMM recorded almost twice as many ceasefire violations (about 1,000), including about 420 explosions, compared with the previous 24 hours. Most ceasefire violations were recorded in areas near Zolote (government-controlled, 60km west of Luhansk) and between Sentianivka (formerly Frunze, non-government-controlled, 44km west of Luhansk) and Zholobok (non-government-controlled, 47km west of Luhansk).
During the day on 4 November, positioned in Sentianivka, the SMM heard about 220 undetermined explosions and about 330 bursts and shots of heavy-machine-gun and small-arms fire, all at an assessed range of 3-6km west-north-west and north-west.
On the same day, while in Kadiivka (formerly Stakhanov, non-government-controlled, 50km west of Luhansk), the SMM heard about 110 explosions at an assessed range of 10-15km north-north-east and north-north-west.
On the same day, positioned in Zolote-5/Mykhailivka (non-government-controlled, 58km west of Luhansk), the SMM heard an explosion (assessed as an airburst ) 300-400m north, six bursts of small-arms fire at an assessed range of 300-500m north-west, as well as seven undetermined explosions at an assessed range of 1-2km north.
The SMM continued to monitor and to pursue full access to the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska (government-controlled, 16km north-east of Luhansk), Zolote and Petrivske[3] (non-government-controlled, 41km south of Donetsk), as foreseen in the Framework Decision of the Trilateral Contact Group relating to disengagement of forces and hardware of 21 September 2016. The SMM’s access remained restricted, but the Mission was able to partially monitor them.*
On the evening of 2 November, the SMM camera at Prince Ihor Monument south-east of the Stanytsia Luhanska bridge (15km north-east of Luhansk) recorded two outgoing explosions at an assessed range of 0.3-1km north-north-west (assessed as inside the disengagement area), as well as an undetermined explosion and 30 projectiles in flight (mostly from north-easterly to south-westerly directions) at an assessed range of 0.3-1.5km north-west, north-north-west and north (assessed as inside the disengagement area). On the same evening, the SMM camera in Stanytsia Luhanska recorded 12 projectiles in flight (five from west to east and seven from northerly to southerly directions), all at an assessed range of 0.5-1km south and south-south-west (all assessed as inside the disengagement area).
On the same evening, while on the eastern edge of Stanytsia Luhanska, the SMM heard four undetermined explosions and about 120 bursts and shots of heavy-machine-gun and small-arms fire, all at an assessed range of 1.5-6km south-south-west and south-west, assessed as outside the disengagement area. The Mission also heard four undetermined explosions and about 300 shots and bursts of heavy-machine-gun and small-arms fire, all at an assessed range of 2-6km south-south-west and south-west (unable to assess whether inside or outside the disengagement area).
During the day on 4 November, positioned 250m south of the Stanytsia Luhanska bridge, the SMM heard at least 15 bursts of small-arms fire 500m north-north-west, assessed as inside the disengagement area. On the same day, positioned 1km south-south-east of the Stanytsia Luhanska bridge, the Mission heard two bursts of small-arms fire at an assessed range of 1-2km north-west, assessed as inside the disengagement area.
On the evening and night of 2-3 November, the SMM camera in Zolote recorded four projectiles in flight at an assessed range of 1-3km south-east, assessed as inside the disengagement area, and six projectiles in flight 2-5km east-north-east, assessed as outside the disengagement area. During the day on 3 November, positioned on the northern edge of Zolote, the SMM heard two undetermined explosions at an assessed range of 2-3km south-south-east, assessed as outside the disengagement area. On the same day, the SMM saw a tanker truck painted in camouflage colours driven by a Ukrainian Armed Forces soldier entering the disengagement area from the north-eastern outskirts of Katerynivka (government-controlled, 64km west of Luhansk).
During the day on 4 November, positioned in Pervomaisk (non-government-controlled, 58km west of Luhansk), the Mission heard 20 bursts of small-arms fire at an assessed range of 2-3km north-north-east, assessed as inside the disengagement area, as well as 32 undetermined explosions at an assessed range of 5-7km north-north-east and 12 bursts and shots of small-arms fire at an assessed range of 1-2km north-north-east, all assessed as outside the disengagement area. The same day, positioned in Zolote, the SMM heard 40 shots and bursts of automatic grenade launcher, heavy-machine-gun and small-arms fire at an assessed range of 2-3km south-west, all assessed as outside the disengagement area.
During the day on 3 November, positioned north of Petrivske, the SMM heard two bursts of small-arms fire at an assessed range of 3-4km south-south-east, assessed as outside the disengagement area. On 4 November, at the same location, the Mission observed a calm situation.
The SMM continued to monitor the withdrawal of weapons in implementation of the Memorandum and the Package of Measures and its Addendum.
In violation of the withdrawal lines in a government-controlled area, on 2 November, an SMM long-range unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) spotted again a towed howitzer (2A36 Giatsint-B, 152 mm) near Druzhba (76km west of Luhansk).
In violation of the withdrawal lines in a non-government-controlled area, on 2 November, an SMM long-range UAV spotted a surface-to-air missile system (9K31, Strela-1) and a probable mortar south of Kalynove (60km west of Luhansk).
Beyond the respective withdrawal lines but outside designated storage sites in a government-controlled area, on 2 November, an SMM mini-UAV spotted ten towed howitzers (2A65 Msta-B, 152mm) near Novomaiorske (64km south-west of Donetsk).
The SMM observed weapons that could not be verified as withdrawn, as their storage did not comply with the criteria set out in the 16 October 2015 notification from the SMM to the signatories of the Package of Measures on effective monitoring and verification of the withdrawal of heavy weapons. On 4 November, in government-controlled areas of Donetsk region, the SMM saw a surface-to-air missile system (9K35 Strela-10), eight multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) (BM-21 Grad, 122mm) and two tanks (T-64), and noted that two surface-to-air missile systems (9K35), 27 MLRS (BM-21) and a self-propelled howitzer (2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm) were again missing.
The SMM observed armoured combat vehicles, anti-aircraft guns as well as new trenches and firing positions in the security zone.[4] In government‑controlled areas, on 2 November, an SMM mini-UAV spotted an IFV (BMP variant) and an anti-aircraft gun (ZU-23, 23mm) parked near houses, as well as in total 100m of trenches (not seen in imagery from 29 August 2018) in Novozvanivka (70km west of Luhansk). On the same day, an SMM long-range UAV spotted two IFVs (BMP variants) near Hladosove (51km north-east of Donetsk), three IFVs (BMP-2) near Novotoshkivske (53km west of Luhansk), two IFVs (BMP variants) near Katerynivka, three IFVs (BMP-1) near Vershyna (63km north-east of Donetsk) and two IFVs (BMP-1) east of Bila Hora (54km north of Donetsk). On 3 November, the SMM saw three armoured personnel carriers (APC) (BTR-70) in Novoselivka Druha (36km north-east of Mariupol).
In non-government-controlled areas, on 2 November, an SMM long-range UAV spotted an IFV (BMP-1) near Lozove (52km north-east of Donetsk); an armoured reconnaissance vehicle (BRM-1K), an anti-aircraft gun (ZU-23) mounted atop an APC (MT-LB) and three probable IFVs (BMP-1) south of Kalynove (at the same location as the above-mentioned probable mortar and surface-to-air missile system) and six APCs (MT-LB), one with an anti-aircraft gun (ZU-23), and four probable IFVs (BMP variants) near Kalynove-Borshchuvate (61km west of Luhansk). The same day, an SMM long-range UAV spotted new trenches totalling 400m on the eastern side of the road between Dolomitne (53km north-east of Donetsk) and Novoluhanske (government-controlled, 53km north-east of Donetsk) (not seen in imagery from 29 August 2018) about 500m south from previously observed trenches (see SMM Daily Report 5 July 2018) and a 50m-long trench extension about 2.5km north-west from Nyzhnie Lozove (59km north-east of Donetsk). The same day, the SMM saw a probable IFV (BMP variant) in Debaltseve (58km north-east of Donetsk). On 4 November, the Mission saw an anti-aircraft gun (ZU-23) loaded on the back of a military-type truck in Donetsk city.
On 3 November, an SMM mini-UAV spotted ten new firing positions next to previously observed trenches on the eastern edge of Zolote-4/Rodina (government-controlled, 59km west of Luhansk). The mini-UAV also spotted ongoing upgrades of previously spotted trenches on the north-eastern edge of Zolote-5/Mykhailivka, broken cupboards and closets used to fortify and cover them and six armed persons in camouflage clothes nearby. (For previous observations, see SMM Daily Report 1 November 2018).
On 2 November, an SMM mid-range UAV spotted at least 38 craters assessed as caused by artillery rounds: 18 on the western edge of Zholobok and 20 about 1km south-east of Zholobok (all not seen in imagery from 15 October 2018). The Mission assessed that the rounds had been fired from north-north-westerly and north-westerly directions.
The SMM saw demining activities. On 4 November, the Mission saw 12 people (six men, six women) wearing clothing bearing the logo of an international demining organization conducting demining activities in a field east of road T1309 3km north of Shyrokyi (government-controlled, 38km north-east of Luhansk). A representative of the demining team told the SMM that the area being cleared of mines was about 28,000m2 in size and that it would take up to five months to complete mine clearance (for previous observations from this area, see SMM Daily Report 17 October 2018). The Mission also saw people wearing clothing bearing the logo of an international demining organization conducting demining activities in a forested area and an agricultural field about 4km north-east of Krasna Talivka (government-controlled, 51km north-east of Luhansk).
The SMM facilitated and monitored adherence to the ceasefire to enable demining activities in Zolote-2/Karbonit (government-controlled, 62km west of Luhansk) and Nyzhnoteple (government-controlled, 26km north of Luhansk). The Mission continued to facilitate the operation of the DFS.
On 4 November, the SMM saw heavy engineering equipment and about 20 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers conducting repair works at a bridge on road T0504 south-west of Popasna (government-controlled, 69km west of Luhansk) (for previous observations, see SMM Daily Report 12 September 2018).
The SMM continued to monitor the situation of civilians living near the contact line. On 3 November, two women (in their sixties) in Zolote-4/Rodina told the SMM that the security situation in the village was very tense and heavy shelling and shooting occurred on a daily basis. According to the women, about 40 people remain in Volnyi Hutor, the neighbourhood of Zolote-4/Rodina closest to the contact line, which, they said, was completely without electricity.
On 2 and 3 November, the SMM saw a billboard on the northern side of the entry-exit checkpoint in Stanytsia Luhansk reading in Ukrainian: “The SBU warns: participating in the CALO elections constitutes a high treason”.
The SMM visited two border areas outside government control. On 3 November, while at a border crossing point near Uspenka (73km south-east of Donetsk) for about 60 minutes, the SMM saw 44 cars (eight with Ukrainian, 18 with Russian Federation and two with Georgian license plates, and 16 with “DPR” plates) exiting Ukraine. During the same time, the Mission saw three minivans (one with Ukrainian and one with Russian Federation license plates, and one with “DPR” plates) entering Ukraine. The same day, while at a pedestrian border crossing point in Novoborovytsi (79km south of Luhansk) for about 30 minutes, the SMM saw no cross-border traffic.
On 4 November, in Kyiv, the SMM monitored a public gathering organized in commemoration of Kateryna Handziuk, a 33-year-old Kherson city council official and civil society activist who died on 4 November. She had suffered severe injuries in a 31 July acid attack (see SMM Daily Report 2 August 2018). The Mission saw about 400 people (60 per cent men, 40 per cent women, 20-60 years old), including representatives of political parties and civil society, attending the commemoration in front of the building of the Ministry of Interior Affairs of Ukraine at 10 Akademika Bohomoltsia Street. It observed at least 20 people (ten men, ten women, 25-45 years old) holding banners with messages “She was killed!” and “Who killed Kateryna Handziuk” written in Ukrainian. The participants paid tribute by observing a minute of silence and laying flowers and candles. The SMM observed police officers in riot gear standing around the corner of Pylypa Orlyka Street and that Akademika Bohomoltsia Street was blocked off at both ends by three police cars.
The SMM continued monitoring in Kherson, Odessa, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Chernivtsi.
*Restrictions of SMM’s freedom of movement or other impediments to fulfilment of its mandate
The SMM’s monitoring and freedom of movement are restricted by security hazards and threats, including risks posed by mines, unexploded ordnance (UXO) and other impediments – which vary from day to day. The SMM’s mandate provides for safe and secure access throughout Ukraine. All signatories of the Package of Measures have agreed on the need for this safe and secure access, that restriction of the SMM’s freedom of movement constitutes a violation, and on the need for rapid response to these violations. They have also agreed that the Joint Centre for Control and Co-ordination (JCCC) should contribute to such response and co-ordinate mine clearance. Nonetheless, the armed formations in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions frequently deny the SMM access to areas adjacent to Ukraine’s border outside control of the Government (for example, see below). The SMM’s operations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions remain restricted following the fatal incident of 23 April 2017 near Pryshyb; these restrictions continued to limit the Mission’s observations.
Denials of access:
Regular restrictions related to disengagement areas and mines/UXO:
Other impediments:
[1] For a complete breakdown of ceasefire violations, please see the annexed table.
[2] Between the evenings of 2 and 3 November, the SMM cameras in Krasnohorivka and in Svitlodarsk were not operational. Between the evenings of 3 and 4 November, the SMM camera in Krasnohorivka was not operational.
[3] Due to the presence of mines, including on a road between Bohdanivka and Petrivske, the SMM’s access to its camera in Petrivske remains limited, and thus the SMM has not been able to access observations from the camera since 22 June 2018.
[4] The hardware mentioned in this section is not proscribed by the provisions of the Minsk agreements on the withdrawal of weapons.
[5] The SMM informed Ukrainian Armed Forces officers of the JCCC. Russian Federation Armed Forces officers of the JCCC withdrew from the JCCC as of 18 December 2017.
[6] The interference could have originated from anywhere within a radius of several kilometres of the UAV’s position.
Nomads pass the carcass of a goat in April 2000, near Geladid, southwestern Ethiopia, following three years of drought. Picture: REUTERS
By Jeffrey Labovitz
East Africa , Nov 5 2018 (IOM)
Conflict, insecurity, political unrest and the search for economic opportunities continue to drive migration in the East and Horn of Africa.
However, one of the biggest drivers of displacement is not war or the search for better jobs, but changing weather patterns. After five years of drought, more that 1.5-million people were uprooted from their homes as their soils slowly, year by year, dried and cracked.
This year the skies opened up, lonely clouds joined each other, and the rains finally came. But the immediate effect was not joy as one would hope, because whenever there is drought, what follows are floods. Tract of soil hardened by years baking in the sun, turn into racing river beds. Hundreds of thousands who withstood the long dry period lost their homes to an unrelenting wet season. More than 311,000 people were displaced in the May flooding in Kenya alone.
After suffering from a sustained dry period and now a definitive wet period, dare we hope for a return of internally displaced peoples to normalcy with sustained and viable livelihoods?
According to the World Bank, the most recent drought, which lasted four consecutive years, cost the economy of Somalia an estimated $3.2bn. Remarkably, livestock exports fell by 75% and reached a low of 1.3-million live animals compared with a high of 5.3-million in 2015.
This is why, today, we need to talk about goats.
Goats are the prime offering at any celebration in East Africa, whether it is a barbecue, breaking the fast of Ramadan, Christmas dinner, or the culmination of a wedding feast. Nyama choma is the Swahili word for barbecue and it’s the talk of any party. The success of an event corresponds with the quality of the meat.
Goats are omnipresent in the city and in any village. You can see them on the side of bustling markets, dodging cars and people, grazing; their coats dirtied by the East African red cotton soil. They stand below the blooming jacarandas, filling the open space of what is usually a football pitch, crossing pot-holed streets while a fresh-faced boy with a pointed stick, wearing a tattered shirt and shorts, urges them onwards.
Among many rural households in East and Horn of Africa, goats represent the rural community’s social safety net. They represent a marriage dowry, a measure of wealth and prestige.
In Kenya, one goat can sell at market for $70. A juvenile, cherished for its soft meat, goes for $30. In countries where half the population live on less than $1.50 a day, the goat herd represents the family fortune, their bank account, their life savings. When goats go missing, when they die of thirst or starve from hunger, the resiliency of the entire community is compromised. Then, it is the people who are endangered.
While we are talking goats, we can also talk about cows and camels. Cows can be sold for upwards of $500, and camels fetch upwards of $1,000 when sold to Saudi Arabia.
All in all, experts estimate that about 20% of the entire livestock of drought-affected areas has died. While these estimates are not precise, it is safe to say millions of animals died. It is not a stretch to think of more than 10-million livestock deaths.
As aid workers, we talk about people, and we should. When the Horn of Africa last had a famine in 2011, we talked of numbers which are hard to articulate. Years on, it is still hard to imagine the scale of a drought which cost an estimated 250,000 people their lives.
Over the past year, governments and aid agencies worked hard to avoid famine, and large-scale death was averted. We avoided a repeat of 2012. However, this is not a celebration.
Earlier this year Sacdiya, an elderly woman from Balli Hille, Somalia complained: “This drought is absolutely terrible. It’s even worse than the last one in 2011. I have already lost 150 animals to thirst and starvation. How am I supposed to provide for my family with no livestock?”
Ahmed, who lives with his family in a makeshift home built from aluminum and fabric in the outskirts of Hargesia, Somaliland, said: “I lost all of my animals decades ago during my first famine in the 1980s. Back then, as all of my animals were dying, we got so desperate that we started selling the skin hoping to make any money at all. In the past three droughts I have seen in my lifetime, this one is by far the worst I have seen.”
The International Organisation for Migration (IOM), a UN organisation, tracks the displacement of people. We know that when people leave their homes, they have lost their survival mechanisms. People don’t leave behind their goats and their land, unless they fear they will die. It’s that simple.
Those displaced by environmental conditions surpassed 300,000 in Kenya, half a million in Ethiopia and a million in Somalia. And experts predict that the unpredictable and extreme weather events will only get worse.
For the people affected we need to ask, what will they do?
The Famine Early Warning System network offers evidence-based analysis to governments and relief agencies. While this past year has brought rains to most areas, changing weather patterns mean this is an impasse and we need to think of the future. At the same time, we still have millions in need of our help.
We as humanitarians need to remind the world that we continue to need resources to help our people to survive. We also need to remind the world that we need to take care of our goats as we need livelihoods for sustainable return or people will have nothing to go back to.
More importantly, we need to diversify livelihood strategies if indeed changing weather patterns continue to result in mass displacement and current population growth rates continue to prevail. In other words, we need to help the most vulnerable people to adapt.
For the more than 1.5-million people displaced over the past year, they will continue to be stuck in dismal camps for years to come and are dependent on our generosity.
The irony is that all they want is their goats.
• Labovitz is the regional director for East and the Horn of Africa for IOM, the UN migration agency.
The post The importance of goats in East Africa’s recovery from drought appeared first on Inter Press Service.
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Jeffrey Labovitz, is IOM Regional Director for East and Horn of Africa
The post The importance of goats in East Africa’s recovery from drought appeared first on Inter Press Service.