Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

• The European Parliament that emerged after the June 2024 elections is characterized by a high level of diversity and fragmentation.
• More than 200 national and transnational parties are represented, with more than one third of the Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) belonging to very small political parties, with one to three representatives, or have no party affiliation. Ten national parties gather 204 MEPs, dominating political interactions in the EP environment.
• The observed fragmentation enhances diversity and pluralism but also undermines the formation of stable political and ideological networks and coalitions.
• The EPP, the S&D, and Renew, together with the Greens at some (small) distance, form the cluster of the ‘governing majority’. ESN and PfE are located far away from this first cluster. The European Left and the ECR have an intermediate position, showing thematic flexibility and an occasional, selective ad hoc convergence with either cluster in different votes.
• S&D is the most cohesive political group in the EP, followed by the EPP and the RENEW group that also show a high level of cohesion. Large deviations in the voting patterns of their constituent members exist in the ECR and PfE groups.
• Combining our findings with the ones of the Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES) on the ideological positions of the EP political groups, we find that the groups’ positions on European integration explain voting alignment better than ideology does. This reinforces a key literature insight that European integration has become perhaps the most influential cleavage in the EP politics — one that increasingly structures legislative behaviour beyond the traditional Left–Right divide.

Read here in pdf the Working paper by Antonis Papakostas, former EU official; Research Associate, ELIAMEP; Spyros Blavoukos, Professor, Athens University of Economics and Business; Senior Research Fellow and Head of the ‘Ariane Condellis’ European Program, ELIAMEP and Georgios Matsoukas, Research Assistant, ELIAMEP.

The Transatlantic Periscope is an interactive, multimedia tool that brings together expert commentary, high-quality media coverage, official policy documents, quantitative data, social media posts, and gray literature. It will provide on a monthly basis a summary of the most important news concerning the Greek-US relations, as reflected in the media. Below you will find an overview for October 2025.

On October 2, Kimberly Guilfoyle begun her first official contacts as the new U.S. Ambassador to Greece. The Ambassador visited her Greek counterpart in Washington, D.C., Ambassador Katerina Nasika. According to SKAI, Guilfoyle outlined her plans for Greece, while the Greek Ambassador appeared satisfied with the meeting.

Greece participated in the Association of the United States Army (AUSA) Annual Meeting & Exposition, with a dedicated Hellenic Pavillion, under the auspices of Enterprise Greece and the Hellenic Ministry of National Defense, in collaboration with the American Hellenic Chamber of Commerce. As part of the AUSA Exposition, a high-level event entitled “Investing in Europe’s Defense Future: Opportunities and Innovation in Greece” was held on October 14. The event brought together industry leaders, defense experts, and stakeholders to explore Europe’s evolving defense landscape, with particular emphasis on Greece’s pivotal role in strengthening its defense capabilities. Distinguished speakers, including senior officials from the Hellenic Ministry of National Defense and representatives from U.S. and Greek defense industries, engaged in in-depth discussions on the shared challenges facing European and U.S. defense sectors, highlighting opportunities for enhanced understanding and cooperation.

The Chief of the Hellenic Navy, Vice Admiral Dimitrios Eleftherios Kataras, participated in the commemorative events marking the 250th anniversary of the United States Navy in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, from 7 to 13 October 2025, where he held meetings with senior U.S. officers, following an invitation from his counterpart, Admiral Daryl Caudle, Chief of Naval Operations of the United States. On October 16, Minister of National Defence of Greece, Nikos Dendias, visited the U.S. Naval War College in Rhode Island. During his visit, the Minister of Defense held discussions with the President, Rear Admiral Darryl Walker, and senior officials of the U.S. Navy.

Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis met U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings on October 17, for the second time in six months. During the meeting they reaffirmed the relationship of trust and strategic cooperation between Greece and the United States. Secretary Bessent and Minister Pierrakakis also stressed the need for cooperation on national security issues. Pierrakakis presented Greece’s progress in fiscal stability and investment attraction, and underlined the need to further deepen the economic partnership between Greece and the United States, particularly in the fields of technological innovation and energy infrastructure.

More at: https://transatlanticperiscope.org/relationship/GR#

Bus rapid transit (BRT) has been widely adopted in emerging economies for its affordability and incremental implementation potential. Yet, many cities are now starting to implement urban rail as a higher-quality mass-transit alternative. This raises the question of the role of existing BRT networks once rail arrives, particularly regarding their land-value effects. This paper examines how BRT-related land value uplift (LVU) evolves after rail begins operation, using Jakarta as a case study. The study analyses residential land values around Transjakarta BRT and MRT Jakarta stations for 2017 (pre-rail) and 2021 (post-rail) using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The findings reveal that (1) proximity to Transjakarta stations was associated with uplift in 2017, particularly in South Jakarta; (2) by 2021, BRT proximity penalties were reported citywide, especially in the north and east, but also in Central Jakarta; and (3) proximity to MRT Jakarta stations was associated with consistent uplift in 2021, with strongest effects at upgraded interchange nodes in South Jakarta. The timing and spatial coherence of these patterns are consistent with a rail-led substitution mechanism in which urban policy attention and developer actions concentrate willingness-to-pay near rail, while stand-alone BRT corridors increasingly reflect proximity penalties in prices. Policy recommendations include strategic co-location and integration of BRT-MRT stations, mitigating BRT proximity effects with context-sensitive station design, and timely transit-oriented development (TOD) and land value capture (LVC) at integrated hubs to harness value where market signals are strongest.

Bus rapid transit (BRT) has been widely adopted in emerging economies for its affordability and incremental implementation potential. Yet, many cities are now starting to implement urban rail as a higher-quality mass-transit alternative. This raises the question of the role of existing BRT networks once rail arrives, particularly regarding their land-value effects. This paper examines how BRT-related land value uplift (LVU) evolves after rail begins operation, using Jakarta as a case study. The study analyses residential land values around Transjakarta BRT and MRT Jakarta stations for 2017 (pre-rail) and 2021 (post-rail) using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The findings reveal that (1) proximity to Transjakarta stations was associated with uplift in 2017, particularly in South Jakarta; (2) by 2021, BRT proximity penalties were reported citywide, especially in the north and east, but also in Central Jakarta; and (3) proximity to MRT Jakarta stations was associated with consistent uplift in 2021, with strongest effects at upgraded interchange nodes in South Jakarta. The timing and spatial coherence of these patterns are consistent with a rail-led substitution mechanism in which urban policy attention and developer actions concentrate willingness-to-pay near rail, while stand-alone BRT corridors increasingly reflect proximity penalties in prices. Policy recommendations include strategic co-location and integration of BRT-MRT stations, mitigating BRT proximity effects with context-sensitive station design, and timely transit-oriented development (TOD) and land value capture (LVC) at integrated hubs to harness value where market signals are strongest.

Bus rapid transit (BRT) has been widely adopted in emerging economies for its affordability and incremental implementation potential. Yet, many cities are now starting to implement urban rail as a higher-quality mass-transit alternative. This raises the question of the role of existing BRT networks once rail arrives, particularly regarding their land-value effects. This paper examines how BRT-related land value uplift (LVU) evolves after rail begins operation, using Jakarta as a case study. The study analyses residential land values around Transjakarta BRT and MRT Jakarta stations for 2017 (pre-rail) and 2021 (post-rail) using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The findings reveal that (1) proximity to Transjakarta stations was associated with uplift in 2017, particularly in South Jakarta; (2) by 2021, BRT proximity penalties were reported citywide, especially in the north and east, but also in Central Jakarta; and (3) proximity to MRT Jakarta stations was associated with consistent uplift in 2021, with strongest effects at upgraded interchange nodes in South Jakarta. The timing and spatial coherence of these patterns are consistent with a rail-led substitution mechanism in which urban policy attention and developer actions concentrate willingness-to-pay near rail, while stand-alone BRT corridors increasingly reflect proximity penalties in prices. Policy recommendations include strategic co-location and integration of BRT-MRT stations, mitigating BRT proximity effects with context-sensitive station design, and timely transit-oriented development (TOD) and land value capture (LVC) at integrated hubs to harness value where market signals are strongest.

In Mexico, tax expenditures refer to all fiscal measures that reduce public revenue by granting preferential tax treatment relative to the benchmark system. These include deductions, exemptions, tax credits, differentiated rates and tax incentives (SHCP, 2024b).
While tax incentives are conceptually equivalent to tax expenditures, in Mexico the former are a component of the latter, as per the structure of the SHCP’s tax expenditures document. As such, tax incentives constitute a specific subset of tax expenditures and are typically created by presidential decree, unlike other benefits which are incorporated directly into tax legislation (SHCP, 2024b).
Transparency: Mexico fell from 42nd to 51st place in the Global Tax Expenditures Transparency Index (GTETI)’s 2024 ranking, reflecting a decline in the availability, quality and clarity of information pertaining to tax expenditures. While the country still meets the minimum standards for publication of tax expenditure information (as regards such things as estimates, methodology, legal basis and beneficiary analysis), there is still significant room for improvement, particularly when it comes to defining the benchmark, incorporating assessments and strengthening the role of Mexico’s parliament, the Congress of the Union. With publication of the tax expenditures document (Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias) having resumed in 2024, there is now an opportunity to make up lost ground in terms of tax transparency and promote more proactive oversight by the legislative branch and civil society.
Complex fiscal landscape: tax expenditures amounted to some MXN 1.42 trillion in 2024, which equates to 4.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 19.4% of tax revenue. The primary tax expenditures pertain to the 0% value added tax (VAT) rate and the income tax system. Additionally, tax incentives, most of which are granted by presidential decree, account for approximately 25% of total tax expenditure. These measures have different objectives, legal foundations and timeframes, reflecting a Mexican tax expenditure system that is fragmented and inconsistent in design.
Evaluation challenges: despite advances in incidence analysis and disaggregation by tax type, there is no systematic model in place to evaluate compliance with the objectives of this public policy. In the absence of ex-ante and ex-post evaluations and performance indicators, it is difficult to determine the effectiveness and relevance of the different tax expenditures. At the same time, a time lag between publication of tax decrees and the tax expenditures document limits assessment of the impact of these expenditures.
Fiscal sustainability: tax expenditures account for almost 20% of tax revenue. Their scale poses a challenge to the sustainability of public finances. Against the backdrop of the energy transition, demographic transition and structural pressure on welfare spending and public investment, it is essential to review the permanence and effectiveness of these tax expenditures to prevent them from becoming a structural source of inefficiency and regression.

In Mexico, tax expenditures refer to all fiscal measures that reduce public revenue by granting preferential tax treatment relative to the benchmark system. These include deductions, exemptions, tax credits, differentiated rates and tax incentives (SHCP, 2024b).
While tax incentives are conceptually equivalent to tax expenditures, in Mexico the former are a component of the latter, as per the structure of the SHCP’s tax expenditures document. As such, tax incentives constitute a specific subset of tax expenditures and are typically created by presidential decree, unlike other benefits which are incorporated directly into tax legislation (SHCP, 2024b).
Transparency: Mexico fell from 42nd to 51st place in the Global Tax Expenditures Transparency Index (GTETI)’s 2024 ranking, reflecting a decline in the availability, quality and clarity of information pertaining to tax expenditures. While the country still meets the minimum standards for publication of tax expenditure information (as regards such things as estimates, methodology, legal basis and beneficiary analysis), there is still significant room for improvement, particularly when it comes to defining the benchmark, incorporating assessments and strengthening the role of Mexico’s parliament, the Congress of the Union. With publication of the tax expenditures document (Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias) having resumed in 2024, there is now an opportunity to make up lost ground in terms of tax transparency and promote more proactive oversight by the legislative branch and civil society.
Complex fiscal landscape: tax expenditures amounted to some MXN 1.42 trillion in 2024, which equates to 4.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 19.4% of tax revenue. The primary tax expenditures pertain to the 0% value added tax (VAT) rate and the income tax system. Additionally, tax incentives, most of which are granted by presidential decree, account for approximately 25% of total tax expenditure. These measures have different objectives, legal foundations and timeframes, reflecting a Mexican tax expenditure system that is fragmented and inconsistent in design.
Evaluation challenges: despite advances in incidence analysis and disaggregation by tax type, there is no systematic model in place to evaluate compliance with the objectives of this public policy. In the absence of ex-ante and ex-post evaluations and performance indicators, it is difficult to determine the effectiveness and relevance of the different tax expenditures. At the same time, a time lag between publication of tax decrees and the tax expenditures document limits assessment of the impact of these expenditures.
Fiscal sustainability: tax expenditures account for almost 20% of tax revenue. Their scale poses a challenge to the sustainability of public finances. Against the backdrop of the energy transition, demographic transition and structural pressure on welfare spending and public investment, it is essential to review the permanence and effectiveness of these tax expenditures to prevent them from becoming a structural source of inefficiency and regression.

In Mexico, tax expenditures refer to all fiscal measures that reduce public revenue by granting preferential tax treatment relative to the benchmark system. These include deductions, exemptions, tax credits, differentiated rates and tax incentives (SHCP, 2024b).
While tax incentives are conceptually equivalent to tax expenditures, in Mexico the former are a component of the latter, as per the structure of the SHCP’s tax expenditures document. As such, tax incentives constitute a specific subset of tax expenditures and are typically created by presidential decree, unlike other benefits which are incorporated directly into tax legislation (SHCP, 2024b).
Transparency: Mexico fell from 42nd to 51st place in the Global Tax Expenditures Transparency Index (GTETI)’s 2024 ranking, reflecting a decline in the availability, quality and clarity of information pertaining to tax expenditures. While the country still meets the minimum standards for publication of tax expenditure information (as regards such things as estimates, methodology, legal basis and beneficiary analysis), there is still significant room for improvement, particularly when it comes to defining the benchmark, incorporating assessments and strengthening the role of Mexico’s parliament, the Congress of the Union. With publication of the tax expenditures document (Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias) having resumed in 2024, there is now an opportunity to make up lost ground in terms of tax transparency and promote more proactive oversight by the legislative branch and civil society.
Complex fiscal landscape: tax expenditures amounted to some MXN 1.42 trillion in 2024, which equates to 4.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) and 19.4% of tax revenue. The primary tax expenditures pertain to the 0% value added tax (VAT) rate and the income tax system. Additionally, tax incentives, most of which are granted by presidential decree, account for approximately 25% of total tax expenditure. These measures have different objectives, legal foundations and timeframes, reflecting a Mexican tax expenditure system that is fragmented and inconsistent in design.
Evaluation challenges: despite advances in incidence analysis and disaggregation by tax type, there is no systematic model in place to evaluate compliance with the objectives of this public policy. In the absence of ex-ante and ex-post evaluations and performance indicators, it is difficult to determine the effectiveness and relevance of the different tax expenditures. At the same time, a time lag between publication of tax decrees and the tax expenditures document limits assessment of the impact of these expenditures.
Fiscal sustainability: tax expenditures account for almost 20% of tax revenue. Their scale poses a challenge to the sustainability of public finances. Against the backdrop of the energy transition, demographic transition and structural pressure on welfare spending and public investment, it is essential to review the permanence and effectiveness of these tax expenditures to prevent them from becoming a structural source of inefficiency and regression.

Many sub-Saharan African countries are increasingly adopting national health insurance policies to improve access to essential services. Informal sector workers, however, often lack coverage because their earnings are typically not low enough to qualify for government subsidies but insufficient to cover insurance premiums, resulting in a phenomenon known as "missing middle". This paper examined socioeconomic inequalities in national health insurance enrolment and determinants of participation among informal sector workers in Kenya. We used nationally representative cross-sectional household survey data (n = 5168) collected from informal sector workers in Kenya in December 2020. First, we examined levels of national health insurance enrolment among informal sector workers. Second, we examined socioeconomic inequalities in national health insurance enrolment using concentration curves and the Wagstaff index. Third, we employed a three-level mixed effects logistic regression model to assess the determinants of national health insurance enrolment. Overall, 21.75% (95% Confidence Interval 20.63–22.89) of informal sector workers in Kenya were enrolled in the national health insurance scheme. We observed pro-rich inequalities in national health insurance enrolment, with a concentration index of 0.35 (95% CI 0.30–0.41). Older age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.66, 95% CI 1.31–2.10), employment in the non-agricultural sector (AOR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.60–2.39), microfinance institutional membership (AOR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.23–1.69), higher education level (AOR = 2.49, 95% CI 1.99–3.11), household’s prior positive experience with healthcare (AOR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.22–1.72), and higher socioeconomic status based on the wealth asset index (AOR = 3.87, 95% CI 2.97–5.05) were all significantly positively associated with national health insurance enrolment. Larger households had lower odds of enrollment (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.60–0.96). Our findings suggest that enrollment rates among informal sector workers remain low, and important pro-rich inequalities prevail. Economic factors, education, and prior experience with healthcare services were key drivers of national health insurance enrollment. Further policies are needed to increase enrollment among informal sector workers, including differential premium levels, reliance on expanded targeted subsidies, and enhanced awareness campaigns. Our findings are also applicable to other low-resource settings experiencing conditions similar to those in Kenya as they transition toward national health insurance policies, with the goal of achieving universal health coverage.

Many sub-Saharan African countries are increasingly adopting national health insurance policies to improve access to essential services. Informal sector workers, however, often lack coverage because their earnings are typically not low enough to qualify for government subsidies but insufficient to cover insurance premiums, resulting in a phenomenon known as "missing middle". This paper examined socioeconomic inequalities in national health insurance enrolment and determinants of participation among informal sector workers in Kenya. We used nationally representative cross-sectional household survey data (n = 5168) collected from informal sector workers in Kenya in December 2020. First, we examined levels of national health insurance enrolment among informal sector workers. Second, we examined socioeconomic inequalities in national health insurance enrolment using concentration curves and the Wagstaff index. Third, we employed a three-level mixed effects logistic regression model to assess the determinants of national health insurance enrolment. Overall, 21.75% (95% Confidence Interval 20.63–22.89) of informal sector workers in Kenya were enrolled in the national health insurance scheme. We observed pro-rich inequalities in national health insurance enrolment, with a concentration index of 0.35 (95% CI 0.30–0.41). Older age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.66, 95% CI 1.31–2.10), employment in the non-agricultural sector (AOR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.60–2.39), microfinance institutional membership (AOR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.23–1.69), higher education level (AOR = 2.49, 95% CI 1.99–3.11), household’s prior positive experience with healthcare (AOR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.22–1.72), and higher socioeconomic status based on the wealth asset index (AOR = 3.87, 95% CI 2.97–5.05) were all significantly positively associated with national health insurance enrolment. Larger households had lower odds of enrollment (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.60–0.96). Our findings suggest that enrollment rates among informal sector workers remain low, and important pro-rich inequalities prevail. Economic factors, education, and prior experience with healthcare services were key drivers of national health insurance enrollment. Further policies are needed to increase enrollment among informal sector workers, including differential premium levels, reliance on expanded targeted subsidies, and enhanced awareness campaigns. Our findings are also applicable to other low-resource settings experiencing conditions similar to those in Kenya as they transition toward national health insurance policies, with the goal of achieving universal health coverage.

Many sub-Saharan African countries are increasingly adopting national health insurance policies to improve access to essential services. Informal sector workers, however, often lack coverage because their earnings are typically not low enough to qualify for government subsidies but insufficient to cover insurance premiums, resulting in a phenomenon known as "missing middle". This paper examined socioeconomic inequalities in national health insurance enrolment and determinants of participation among informal sector workers in Kenya. We used nationally representative cross-sectional household survey data (n = 5168) collected from informal sector workers in Kenya in December 2020. First, we examined levels of national health insurance enrolment among informal sector workers. Second, we examined socioeconomic inequalities in national health insurance enrolment using concentration curves and the Wagstaff index. Third, we employed a three-level mixed effects logistic regression model to assess the determinants of national health insurance enrolment. Overall, 21.75% (95% Confidence Interval 20.63–22.89) of informal sector workers in Kenya were enrolled in the national health insurance scheme. We observed pro-rich inequalities in national health insurance enrolment, with a concentration index of 0.35 (95% CI 0.30–0.41). Older age (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.66, 95% CI 1.31–2.10), employment in the non-agricultural sector (AOR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.60–2.39), microfinance institutional membership (AOR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.23–1.69), higher education level (AOR = 2.49, 95% CI 1.99–3.11), household’s prior positive experience with healthcare (AOR = 1.45, 95% CI 1.22–1.72), and higher socioeconomic status based on the wealth asset index (AOR = 3.87, 95% CI 2.97–5.05) were all significantly positively associated with national health insurance enrolment. Larger households had lower odds of enrollment (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.60–0.96). Our findings suggest that enrollment rates among informal sector workers remain low, and important pro-rich inequalities prevail. Economic factors, education, and prior experience with healthcare services were key drivers of national health insurance enrollment. Further policies are needed to increase enrollment among informal sector workers, including differential premium levels, reliance on expanded targeted subsidies, and enhanced awareness campaigns. Our findings are also applicable to other low-resource settings experiencing conditions similar to those in Kenya as they transition toward national health insurance policies, with the goal of achieving universal health coverage.

Los gastos tributarios (o gastos fiscales) en México se conocen como renuncias recaudatorias y se refieren al conjunto de medidas fiscales que reducen los ingresos públicos al otorgar un tratamiento preferencial frente a la estructura tributaria de referencia. Estas incluyen deducciones, exenciones, créditos fiscales, tasas diferenciadas y estímulos fiscales (SHCP, 2024b).
Aunque el concepto de gastos tributarios es equivalente al de estímulos fiscales, en México, los estímulos fiscales son, siguiendo la estructura del documento de renuncias recaudatorias de la SHCP, uno de los componentes de dichas renuncias. Así, los estímulos fiscales conforman un subconjunto específico de las renuncias recaudatorias y suelen establecerse mediante decretos presidenciales, a diferencia de otros beneficios incorporados directamente en las leyes tributarias (SHCP b, 2024).
Transparencia: México pasó del lugar 42 al 51 en la edición más reciente del Índice Global de Transparencia en Gastos Tributarios (GTETI, por su nombre en inglés), lo que refleja un retroceso en la disponibilidad, calidad y claridad de la información relacionada con las renuncias recaudatorias. Si bien el país aún cumple con los elementos mínimos de publicación —como estimaciones, metodología, base legal y análisis de beneficiarios—, persisten áreas de mejora relevantes, en particular en la definición del sistema de referencia (benchmark), la incorporación de evaluaciones y el fortalecimiento del papel del Congreso. La reanudación de la publicación del Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias en 2024 representa una oportunidad para recuperar terreno en transparencia fiscal y promover una supervisión más activa por parte del poder legislativo y la sociedad civil.
Contexto complejo: Las renuncias recaudatorias representaron en 2024 alrededor de 1,42 billones de pesos, equivalentes al 4,2% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y al 19,4% de los ingresos tributarios. Las renuncias recaudatorias se concentran principalmente en el Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA) con tasa cero y en el Sistema de Renta. Además, los estímulos fiscales, otorgados en su mayoría mediante decretos presidenciales, representaron cerca de una cuarta parte del total. Estas medidas tienen distintos objetivos, fundamentos jurídicos y horizontes temporales, lo que refleja un diseño heterogéneo y fragmentado de las renuncias recaudatorias en México.
Desafíos de evaluación: A pesar de los avances en el análisis de incidencia y desagregación por tipo de impuesto, no existe una evaluación sistemática del cumplimiento de objetivos de esta política pública. La ausencia de evaluaciones ex ante y ex post, así como de indicadores de desempeño, impide conocer la eficiencia y pertinencia de varias renuncias recaudatorias. Asimismo, existe un desfase entre la publicación de los decretos fiscales y el Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias, lo que limita la evaluación de su impacto.
Sostenibilidad fiscal: La magnitud de las renuncias recaudatorias, equivalente a casi una quinta parte de los ingresos tributarios, representa un desafío para la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas. En un contexto de presiones estructurales sobre el gasto social, inversión pública, transición energética y transición demográfica es indispensable revisar la permanencia y efectividad de las medidas que implican estas renuncias, ya que si no son evaluadas pueden convertirse en una fuente estructural de ineficiencia y regresividad.

Los gastos tributarios (o gastos fiscales) en México se conocen como renuncias recaudatorias y se refieren al conjunto de medidas fiscales que reducen los ingresos públicos al otorgar un tratamiento preferencial frente a la estructura tributaria de referencia. Estas incluyen deducciones, exenciones, créditos fiscales, tasas diferenciadas y estímulos fiscales (SHCP, 2024b).
Aunque el concepto de gastos tributarios es equivalente al de estímulos fiscales, en México, los estímulos fiscales son, siguiendo la estructura del documento de renuncias recaudatorias de la SHCP, uno de los componentes de dichas renuncias. Así, los estímulos fiscales conforman un subconjunto específico de las renuncias recaudatorias y suelen establecerse mediante decretos presidenciales, a diferencia de otros beneficios incorporados directamente en las leyes tributarias (SHCP b, 2024).
Transparencia: México pasó del lugar 42 al 51 en la edición más reciente del Índice Global de Transparencia en Gastos Tributarios (GTETI, por su nombre en inglés), lo que refleja un retroceso en la disponibilidad, calidad y claridad de la información relacionada con las renuncias recaudatorias. Si bien el país aún cumple con los elementos mínimos de publicación —como estimaciones, metodología, base legal y análisis de beneficiarios—, persisten áreas de mejora relevantes, en particular en la definición del sistema de referencia (benchmark), la incorporación de evaluaciones y el fortalecimiento del papel del Congreso. La reanudación de la publicación del Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias en 2024 representa una oportunidad para recuperar terreno en transparencia fiscal y promover una supervisión más activa por parte del poder legislativo y la sociedad civil.
Contexto complejo: Las renuncias recaudatorias representaron en 2024 alrededor de 1,42 billones de pesos, equivalentes al 4,2% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y al 19,4% de los ingresos tributarios. Las renuncias recaudatorias se concentran principalmente en el Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA) con tasa cero y en el Sistema de Renta. Además, los estímulos fiscales, otorgados en su mayoría mediante decretos presidenciales, representaron cerca de una cuarta parte del total. Estas medidas tienen distintos objetivos, fundamentos jurídicos y horizontes temporales, lo que refleja un diseño heterogéneo y fragmentado de las renuncias recaudatorias en México.
Desafíos de evaluación: A pesar de los avances en el análisis de incidencia y desagregación por tipo de impuesto, no existe una evaluación sistemática del cumplimiento de objetivos de esta política pública. La ausencia de evaluaciones ex ante y ex post, así como de indicadores de desempeño, impide conocer la eficiencia y pertinencia de varias renuncias recaudatorias. Asimismo, existe un desfase entre la publicación de los decretos fiscales y el Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias, lo que limita la evaluación de su impacto.
Sostenibilidad fiscal: La magnitud de las renuncias recaudatorias, equivalente a casi una quinta parte de los ingresos tributarios, representa un desafío para la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas. En un contexto de presiones estructurales sobre el gasto social, inversión pública, transición energética y transición demográfica es indispensable revisar la permanencia y efectividad de las medidas que implican estas renuncias, ya que si no son evaluadas pueden convertirse en una fuente estructural de ineficiencia y regresividad.

Los gastos tributarios (o gastos fiscales) en México se conocen como renuncias recaudatorias y se refieren al conjunto de medidas fiscales que reducen los ingresos públicos al otorgar un tratamiento preferencial frente a la estructura tributaria de referencia. Estas incluyen deducciones, exenciones, créditos fiscales, tasas diferenciadas y estímulos fiscales (SHCP, 2024b).
Aunque el concepto de gastos tributarios es equivalente al de estímulos fiscales, en México, los estímulos fiscales son, siguiendo la estructura del documento de renuncias recaudatorias de la SHCP, uno de los componentes de dichas renuncias. Así, los estímulos fiscales conforman un subconjunto específico de las renuncias recaudatorias y suelen establecerse mediante decretos presidenciales, a diferencia de otros beneficios incorporados directamente en las leyes tributarias (SHCP b, 2024).
Transparencia: México pasó del lugar 42 al 51 en la edición más reciente del Índice Global de Transparencia en Gastos Tributarios (GTETI, por su nombre en inglés), lo que refleja un retroceso en la disponibilidad, calidad y claridad de la información relacionada con las renuncias recaudatorias. Si bien el país aún cumple con los elementos mínimos de publicación —como estimaciones, metodología, base legal y análisis de beneficiarios—, persisten áreas de mejora relevantes, en particular en la definición del sistema de referencia (benchmark), la incorporación de evaluaciones y el fortalecimiento del papel del Congreso. La reanudación de la publicación del Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias en 2024 representa una oportunidad para recuperar terreno en transparencia fiscal y promover una supervisión más activa por parte del poder legislativo y la sociedad civil.
Contexto complejo: Las renuncias recaudatorias representaron en 2024 alrededor de 1,42 billones de pesos, equivalentes al 4,2% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) y al 19,4% de los ingresos tributarios. Las renuncias recaudatorias se concentran principalmente en el Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA) con tasa cero y en el Sistema de Renta. Además, los estímulos fiscales, otorgados en su mayoría mediante decretos presidenciales, representaron cerca de una cuarta parte del total. Estas medidas tienen distintos objetivos, fundamentos jurídicos y horizontes temporales, lo que refleja un diseño heterogéneo y fragmentado de las renuncias recaudatorias en México.
Desafíos de evaluación: A pesar de los avances en el análisis de incidencia y desagregación por tipo de impuesto, no existe una evaluación sistemática del cumplimiento de objetivos de esta política pública. La ausencia de evaluaciones ex ante y ex post, así como de indicadores de desempeño, impide conocer la eficiencia y pertinencia de varias renuncias recaudatorias. Asimismo, existe un desfase entre la publicación de los decretos fiscales y el Documento de Renuncias Recaudatorias, lo que limita la evaluación de su impacto.
Sostenibilidad fiscal: La magnitud de las renuncias recaudatorias, equivalente a casi una quinta parte de los ingresos tributarios, representa un desafío para la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas. En un contexto de presiones estructurales sobre el gasto social, inversión pública, transición energética y transición demográfica es indispensable revisar la permanencia y efectividad de las medidas que implican estas renuncias, ya que si no son evaluadas pueden convertirse en una fuente estructural de ineficiencia y regresividad.

At IDOS, we are committed to the sustainable development of our organisation – ecologically, socially and economically – and we contribute to sustainable transformations worldwide through research, policy advice and training. For us, sustainability is not a one-off objective but an ongoing process that we aim to shape with responsibility and foresight. Acting sustainably in our day-to-day operations is a self-imposed obligation that we pursue with conviction and consistency. Our ambition is to act today in such a way that good working conditions and the responsible use of natural resources remain possible in the future. With this report, we are presenting for the first time an account of our greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2022 to 2023.

At IDOS, we are committed to the sustainable development of our organisation – ecologically, socially and economically – and we contribute to sustainable transformations worldwide through research, policy advice and training. For us, sustainability is not a one-off objective but an ongoing process that we aim to shape with responsibility and foresight. Acting sustainably in our day-to-day operations is a self-imposed obligation that we pursue with conviction and consistency. Our ambition is to act today in such a way that good working conditions and the responsible use of natural resources remain possible in the future. With this report, we are presenting for the first time an account of our greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2022 to 2023.

At IDOS, we are committed to the sustainable development of our organisation – ecologically, socially and economically – and we contribute to sustainable transformations worldwide through research, policy advice and training. For us, sustainability is not a one-off objective but an ongoing process that we aim to shape with responsibility and foresight. Acting sustainably in our day-to-day operations is a self-imposed obligation that we pursue with conviction and consistency. Our ambition is to act today in such a way that good working conditions and the responsible use of natural resources remain possible in the future. With this report, we are presenting for the first time an account of our greenhouse gas emissions for the period 2022 to 2023.

تُبرز الواحات المغربية كيف تُفاقِم ندرة المياه أعباء النساء اليومية وتؤثر في سبل عيشهن وأنشطتهن التنموية في المناطق القروية القاحلة، في وقت يضطلعن فيه بدور محوري في التنمية القروية والتكيف مع تغيّر المناخ، مما يستدعي دعمًا موجَّهًا يستجيب لاحتياجاتهن

تُبرز الواحات المغربية كيف تُفاقِم ندرة المياه أعباء النساء اليومية وتؤثر في سبل عيشهن وأنشطتهن التنموية في المناطق القروية القاحلة، في وقت يضطلعن فيه بدور محوري في التنمية القروية والتكيف مع تغيّر المناخ، مما يستدعي دعمًا موجَّهًا يستجيب لاحتياجاتهن

تُبرز الواحات المغربية كيف تُفاقِم ندرة المياه أعباء النساء اليومية وتؤثر في سبل عيشهن وأنشطتهن التنموية في المناطق القروية القاحلة، في وقت يضطلعن فيه بدور محوري في التنمية القروية والتكيف مع تغيّر المناخ، مما يستدعي دعمًا موجَّهًا يستجيب لاحتياجاتهن