Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Cash transfer programs are the most common anti-poverty tool in low- and middle-income countries, reaching more than one billion people globally. Benefits are typically targeted using prediction models. In this paper, we develop an extended targeting assessment framework for proxy means testing that accounts for societal sensitivity to targeting errors. Using a social welfare framework, we weight targeting errors based on their position in the welfare  distribution and adjust for different levels of societal inequality aversion. While this approach provides a more comprehensive assessment of targeting performance, our two case studies show that bias in the data, particularly in the form of label bias and unstable proxy means testing weights, leads to a substantial underestimation of welfare losses, disadvantaging some groups more than others.

Cash transfer programs are the most common anti-poverty tool in low- and middle-income countries, reaching more than one billion people globally. Benefits are typically targeted using prediction models. In this paper, we develop an extended targeting assessment framework for proxy means testing that accounts for societal sensitivity to targeting errors. Using a social welfare framework, we weight targeting errors based on their position in the welfare  distribution and adjust for different levels of societal inequality aversion. While this approach provides a more comprehensive assessment of targeting performance, our two case studies show that bias in the data, particularly in the form of label bias and unstable proxy means testing weights, leads to a substantial underestimation of welfare losses, disadvantaging some groups more than others.

Cash transfer programs are the most common anti-poverty tool in low- and middle-income countries, reaching more than one billion people globally. Benefits are typically targeted using prediction models. In this paper, we develop an extended targeting assessment framework for proxy means testing that accounts for societal sensitivity to targeting errors. Using a social welfare framework, we weight targeting errors based on their position in the welfare  distribution and adjust for different levels of societal inequality aversion. While this approach provides a more comprehensive assessment of targeting performance, our two case studies show that bias in the data, particularly in the form of label bias and unstable proxy means testing weights, leads to a substantial underestimation of welfare losses, disadvantaging some groups more than others.

Grüner Wasserstoff ist eine saubere und nachhaltige Form von Wasserstoffgas, das mit erneuerbaren Energiequellen wie Wind- oder Sonnenenergie erzeugt wird. Im Gegensatz zu konventionellen Verfahren, die auf fossile Brennstoffe angewiesen sind, wird grüner Wasserstoff durch ein Verfahren namens Elektrolyse erzeugt, bei dem Wasser mit Hilfe von erneuerbarem Strom in Wasserstoff und Sauerstoff gespalten wird. Er dient als vielseitiger Energieträger und kann nicht nur in der Stahlindustrie, sondern auch in anderen Industriezweigen wie der Chemie- und Zementindustrie sowie im Fernverkehr eingesetzt werden.

Grüner Wasserstoff ist eine saubere und nachhaltige Form von Wasserstoffgas, das mit erneuerbaren Energiequellen wie Wind- oder Sonnenenergie erzeugt wird. Im Gegensatz zu konventionellen Verfahren, die auf fossile Brennstoffe angewiesen sind, wird grüner Wasserstoff durch ein Verfahren namens Elektrolyse erzeugt, bei dem Wasser mit Hilfe von erneuerbarem Strom in Wasserstoff und Sauerstoff gespalten wird. Er dient als vielseitiger Energieträger und kann nicht nur in der Stahlindustrie, sondern auch in anderen Industriezweigen wie der Chemie- und Zementindustrie sowie im Fernverkehr eingesetzt werden.

Grüner Wasserstoff ist eine saubere und nachhaltige Form von Wasserstoffgas, das mit erneuerbaren Energiequellen wie Wind- oder Sonnenenergie erzeugt wird. Im Gegensatz zu konventionellen Verfahren, die auf fossile Brennstoffe angewiesen sind, wird grüner Wasserstoff durch ein Verfahren namens Elektrolyse erzeugt, bei dem Wasser mit Hilfe von erneuerbarem Strom in Wasserstoff und Sauerstoff gespalten wird. Er dient als vielseitiger Energieträger und kann nicht nur in der Stahlindustrie, sondern auch in anderen Industriezweigen wie der Chemie- und Zementindustrie sowie im Fernverkehr eingesetzt werden.

Zu den Ergebnissen der heutigen Sitzung des Rates der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB) äußert sich Marcel Fratzscher, Präsident des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin), wie folgt:

Die Entscheidung der EZB, den Leitzins noch nicht zu senken, ist verständlich und zu diesem Zeitpunkt auch richtig. Allerdings hätte ich mir von der EZB eine klarere Kommunikation gewünscht, die auf die Notwendigkeit von Zinssenkungen in diesem Jahr hinweist. Ein expliziter Hinweis, dass die Zinswende in diesem Jahr bevorsteht und Zinssenkungen notwendig sein werden, um das Ziel der Preisstabilität mittelfristig nicht zu gefährden, indem die Inflation unter zwei Prozent gedrückt wird, wäre sinnvoll gewesen. 

Eine solche kommunikative Vorbereitung von Zinssenkungen wäre wichtig gewesen, um die Finanzierungsbedingungen zu verbessern. Denn die Geldpolitik ist die größte Bremse für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Euroraum in diesem Jahr und vor allem für Deutschland. Die deutsche Wirtschaft dürfte in diesem Jahr kaum wachsen und viele Unternehmen halten sich mit ihren Investitionen zurück, da die Finanzierungsbedingungen sehr restriktiv, also die Zinsen hoch, sind. Dies gilt insbesondere für die Baubranche, aber auch für viele Industriebranchen. 

Die Gefahr, dass die EZB in den kommenden zwei Jahren das Zwei-Prozent-Ziel bei der Inflation sogar „unterschießt“, ist mittlerweile genauso groß wie eine weiterhin zu hohe Inflation. Die Inflation im Euroraum ist in den vergangenen Monaten insgesamt schneller gesunken als erwartet. Sowohl die schwächere wirtschaftliche Entwicklung als auch der deutliche Rückgang der Energiepreise sind zwei der wichtigsten Gründe. 

Der EZB stehen einige sehr schwierige Jahre mit einer stark schwankenden Inflation bevor. Denn es ist wahrscheinlich, dass geopolitische Konflikte, Probleme bei den Lieferketten und Anpassungen bei relativen Preisen immer wieder zu temporären Schocks für die Inflation führen werden. Auch die Lohnentwicklung dürfte in den nächsten zwei bis drei Jahren sehr dynamisch sein, da Beschäftigte ihre erheblichen Reallohnverluste der vergangenen Jahre werden kompensieren wollen. Eine solche Anpassung muss jedoch nicht problematisch sein, zumal eine anhaltende Lohn-Preis-Spirale unwahrscheinlich ist. Die EZB muss durch solche temporären Schocks hindurchschauen und stärker die mittlere und längere Frist im Blick behalten.

Recent decades have shown an unprecedented growth in demand for resources, with a trend that is projected to accelerate in the future. Policymakers around the world have started to recognise that transitioning to a more resource-efficient and circular economy (CE) is key to addressing this challenge. Two important enablers for the transition to a CE are circular business models (CBMs) and consumers. The two are interlinked, as demand shifts among consumers can foster the development and supply of new business models, which in turn require the uptake by consumers to be successful. To promote the development and increase the uptake of new CBMs, policymakers need to provide the respective regulatory frameworks and incentives. Doing so requires systemic policy mixes that go beyond encouraging technological innovations and include targeting the demand side as well. This paper zooms in on the role of the consumer for CBMs, discusses potential consumer barriers to CBM demand, and outlines how policy-making can address these barriers by applying systemic mixes of instruments to tackle the macro-, meso-, and micro-level factors that influence consumer demand simultaneously. While the macro-level describes the economic context of consumers’ decision-making, that is, the availability and supply, infrastructure and price of CBMs in the market, the meso-level characterises the social environment, including social norms and social status, whereas the micro-level focuses on individual characteristics such as consumption habits, security and quality concerns, and environmental knowledge or concern. This paper illustrates how the different consumer barriers are closely interlinked, and that, ideally, policymakers should target all three levels jointly to encourage CBM demand most effectively. In doing so, policymakers should consider the principles of the waste hierarchy in order to maximise the environmental benefits of CE policy mixes. The paper mostly takes a European perspective on the topic, especially when discussing relevant policy frameworks, and reflects on potential differences to other regions, particularly in the Global South, when appropriate

Recent decades have shown an unprecedented growth in demand for resources, with a trend that is projected to accelerate in the future. Policymakers around the world have started to recognise that transitioning to a more resource-efficient and circular economy (CE) is key to addressing this challenge. Two important enablers for the transition to a CE are circular business models (CBMs) and consumers. The two are interlinked, as demand shifts among consumers can foster the development and supply of new business models, which in turn require the uptake by consumers to be successful. To promote the development and increase the uptake of new CBMs, policymakers need to provide the respective regulatory frameworks and incentives. Doing so requires systemic policy mixes that go beyond encouraging technological innovations and include targeting the demand side as well. This paper zooms in on the role of the consumer for CBMs, discusses potential consumer barriers to CBM demand, and outlines how policy-making can address these barriers by applying systemic mixes of instruments to tackle the macro-, meso-, and micro-level factors that influence consumer demand simultaneously. While the macro-level describes the economic context of consumers’ decision-making, that is, the availability and supply, infrastructure and price of CBMs in the market, the meso-level characterises the social environment, including social norms and social status, whereas the micro-level focuses on individual characteristics such as consumption habits, security and quality concerns, and environmental knowledge or concern. This paper illustrates how the different consumer barriers are closely interlinked, and that, ideally, policymakers should target all three levels jointly to encourage CBM demand most effectively. In doing so, policymakers should consider the principles of the waste hierarchy in order to maximise the environmental benefits of CE policy mixes. The paper mostly takes a European perspective on the topic, especially when discussing relevant policy frameworks, and reflects on potential differences to other regions, particularly in the Global South, when appropriate

Recent decades have shown an unprecedented growth in demand for resources, with a trend that is projected to accelerate in the future. Policymakers around the world have started to recognise that transitioning to a more resource-efficient and circular economy (CE) is key to addressing this challenge. Two important enablers for the transition to a CE are circular business models (CBMs) and consumers. The two are interlinked, as demand shifts among consumers can foster the development and supply of new business models, which in turn require the uptake by consumers to be successful. To promote the development and increase the uptake of new CBMs, policymakers need to provide the respective regulatory frameworks and incentives. Doing so requires systemic policy mixes that go beyond encouraging technological innovations and include targeting the demand side as well. This paper zooms in on the role of the consumer for CBMs, discusses potential consumer barriers to CBM demand, and outlines how policy-making can address these barriers by applying systemic mixes of instruments to tackle the macro-, meso-, and micro-level factors that influence consumer demand simultaneously. While the macro-level describes the economic context of consumers’ decision-making, that is, the availability and supply, infrastructure and price of CBMs in the market, the meso-level characterises the social environment, including social norms and social status, whereas the micro-level focuses on individual characteristics such as consumption habits, security and quality concerns, and environmental knowledge or concern. This paper illustrates how the different consumer barriers are closely interlinked, and that, ideally, policymakers should target all three levels jointly to encourage CBM demand most effectively. In doing so, policymakers should consider the principles of the waste hierarchy in order to maximise the environmental benefits of CE policy mixes. The paper mostly takes a European perspective on the topic, especially when discussing relevant policy frameworks, and reflects on potential differences to other regions, particularly in the Global South, when appropriate

Die deutsche Entwicklungshilfe steht auf dem Prüfstand. Experte Klingebiel hält die aktuelle Debatte für falsch. Entwicklungspolitik sei ein ganz wichtiges Instrument, um internationale Agenden mitgestalten zu können.

Die deutsche Entwicklungshilfe steht auf dem Prüfstand. Experte Klingebiel hält die aktuelle Debatte für falsch. Entwicklungspolitik sei ein ganz wichtiges Instrument, um internationale Agenden mitgestalten zu können.

Die deutsche Entwicklungshilfe steht auf dem Prüfstand. Experte Klingebiel hält die aktuelle Debatte für falsch. Entwicklungspolitik sei ein ganz wichtiges Instrument, um internationale Agenden mitgestalten zu können.

COVID-19-induced return migration occurred as an unanticipated course of action due to the pandemic’s adverse impact on migrant workers. The pandemic has undeniably increased the volume of return migration. This chapter, however, cautions against a covidization of return migration and argues that while the pandemic is currently the main reason cited, return migration even when migrants had not met their migration goals had been going on before the outbreak of COVID-19. The chapter uses a gendered lens to discuss the reasons for pre-COVID-19 return migration to a country, Zimbabwe, where people are desperately looking for ways to emigrate due to persistent economic hardships. For many Zimbabweans who have lived through the country’s long-drawn-out socio-economic and political difficulties, migration has become the most viable option. Yet, some of the Zimbabweans who managed to leave the country have returned to the essentially unimproved situation, thus raising questions as to why migrants would return when they have not met the goals of migration and the reasons for migration persist. The chapter shows that return migration is not necessarily influenced by improvement in factors that led to migration but may be an outcome of disappointment with circumstances in the destination country. The reasons for migration still play a role in return migration when migration to destination countries fails to meet migrants’ expectations that motivated migration in the first place. In this respect, return occurs due to multiple reasons that may be linked to both the origin and destination countries. The lack of better economic prospects in destination countries and ensuing gendered socio-cultural and psychological challenges both diminish the appeal of the specific destination country such that return becomes the best option.

COVID-19-induced return migration occurred as an unanticipated course of action due to the pandemic’s adverse impact on migrant workers. The pandemic has undeniably increased the volume of return migration. This chapter, however, cautions against a covidization of return migration and argues that while the pandemic is currently the main reason cited, return migration even when migrants had not met their migration goals had been going on before the outbreak of COVID-19. The chapter uses a gendered lens to discuss the reasons for pre-COVID-19 return migration to a country, Zimbabwe, where people are desperately looking for ways to emigrate due to persistent economic hardships. For many Zimbabweans who have lived through the country’s long-drawn-out socio-economic and political difficulties, migration has become the most viable option. Yet, some of the Zimbabweans who managed to leave the country have returned to the essentially unimproved situation, thus raising questions as to why migrants would return when they have not met the goals of migration and the reasons for migration persist. The chapter shows that return migration is not necessarily influenced by improvement in factors that led to migration but may be an outcome of disappointment with circumstances in the destination country. The reasons for migration still play a role in return migration when migration to destination countries fails to meet migrants’ expectations that motivated migration in the first place. In this respect, return occurs due to multiple reasons that may be linked to both the origin and destination countries. The lack of better economic prospects in destination countries and ensuing gendered socio-cultural and psychological challenges both diminish the appeal of the specific destination country such that return becomes the best option.

COVID-19-induced return migration occurred as an unanticipated course of action due to the pandemic’s adverse impact on migrant workers. The pandemic has undeniably increased the volume of return migration. This chapter, however, cautions against a covidization of return migration and argues that while the pandemic is currently the main reason cited, return migration even when migrants had not met their migration goals had been going on before the outbreak of COVID-19. The chapter uses a gendered lens to discuss the reasons for pre-COVID-19 return migration to a country, Zimbabwe, where people are desperately looking for ways to emigrate due to persistent economic hardships. For many Zimbabweans who have lived through the country’s long-drawn-out socio-economic and political difficulties, migration has become the most viable option. Yet, some of the Zimbabweans who managed to leave the country have returned to the essentially unimproved situation, thus raising questions as to why migrants would return when they have not met the goals of migration and the reasons for migration persist. The chapter shows that return migration is not necessarily influenced by improvement in factors that led to migration but may be an outcome of disappointment with circumstances in the destination country. The reasons for migration still play a role in return migration when migration to destination countries fails to meet migrants’ expectations that motivated migration in the first place. In this respect, return occurs due to multiple reasons that may be linked to both the origin and destination countries. The lack of better economic prospects in destination countries and ensuing gendered socio-cultural and psychological challenges both diminish the appeal of the specific destination country such that return becomes the best option.

Wer Ziele hat, muss diese auch messen können. Doch wie genau geschieht das bei so weitreichenden und umfassenden Vorhaben wie den 17 Zielen für nachhaltige Entwicklung (Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs)?

Wer Ziele hat, muss diese auch messen können. Doch wie genau geschieht das bei so weitreichenden und umfassenden Vorhaben wie den 17 Zielen für nachhaltige Entwicklung (Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs)?