Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

The aim of this chapter (in Portuguese) is to present an overview about the challenge of the rise of populist radical right parties in Europe. Based on the literature, it is argued that their electoral rise has allowed these parties to exert influence on the political agenda, beyond the dimension of electoral competition itself. Populist radical right positions have resonated in other spheres, such as public opinion, traditional parties, democratic institutions and public policies. The chapter starts with a definition of populist radical right parties, then discusses what they represent and what are the explanations found in the literature for their emergence and electoral persistence, with a focus on supply-side factors. In the end, the chapter reflects on some of the implications of the rise of the populist radical right in the the European continent.

This paper compares the allocation of private humanitarian aid to that of official humanitarian aid awarded to 140 recipient countries over the 2000–2016 period. We construct a new database that offers information on the country in which the headquarters of private donors are located to test whether private aid tends to follow the humanitarian aid allocation pattern of the respective official donor. Our empirical results confirm that private humanitarian aid tends to “follow the flag”. This finding is robust against the inclusion of various fixed effects, estimating instrumental variables models and disaggregating private humanitarian aid into corporate aid and NGO aid. Donor country‐specific estimations reveal that private humanitarian aid from China, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States tend to “follow the flag”.

This paper compares the allocation of private humanitarian aid to that of official humanitarian aid awarded to 140 recipient countries over the 2000–2016 period. We construct a new database that offers information on the country in which the headquarters of private donors are located to test whether private aid tends to follow the humanitarian aid allocation pattern of the respective official donor. Our empirical results confirm that private humanitarian aid tends to “follow the flag”. This finding is robust against the inclusion of various fixed effects, estimating instrumental variables models and disaggregating private humanitarian aid into corporate aid and NGO aid. Donor country‐specific estimations reveal that private humanitarian aid from China, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States tend to “follow the flag”.

This paper compares the allocation of private humanitarian aid to that of official humanitarian aid awarded to 140 recipient countries over the 2000–2016 period. We construct a new database that offers information on the country in which the headquarters of private donors are located to test whether private aid tends to follow the humanitarian aid allocation pattern of the respective official donor. Our empirical results confirm that private humanitarian aid tends to “follow the flag”. This finding is robust against the inclusion of various fixed effects, estimating instrumental variables models and disaggregating private humanitarian aid into corporate aid and NGO aid. Donor country‐specific estimations reveal that private humanitarian aid from China, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States tend to “follow the flag”.

Die Zeiten für multilaterales Handeln sind schwierig. Viele blicken hoffnungsvoll auf Deutschland, das mit der Allianz für Multilateralismus einen wichtigen Kontrapunkt zur Devise „Mein Land zuerst“ setzt. Umso wichtiger ist es, dass sich die Bundesregierung mit ihrem neuen Weißbuch für Multilateralismus inhaltlich klar positioniert. Sie muss der eigenen Bevölkerung und anderen Staaten klar kommunizieren, warum die Zusammenarbeit mit anderen Staaten, auch wenn sie oft mühsam ist und stets Kompromisse erfordert, genauso im ureigenen deutschen Interesse liegt wie starke und unabhängige internationale Organisationen und globale Normen und Regeln, die für alle gelten. Und sie muss spezifizieren, für welche Veränderungen sie sich einsetzen will.

Die Zeiten für multilaterales Handeln sind schwierig. Viele blicken hoffnungsvoll auf Deutschland, das mit der Allianz für Multilateralismus einen wichtigen Kontrapunkt zur Devise „Mein Land zuerst“ setzt. Umso wichtiger ist es, dass sich die Bundesregierung mit ihrem neuen Weißbuch für Multilateralismus inhaltlich klar positioniert. Sie muss der eigenen Bevölkerung und anderen Staaten klar kommunizieren, warum die Zusammenarbeit mit anderen Staaten, auch wenn sie oft mühsam ist und stets Kompromisse erfordert, genauso im ureigenen deutschen Interesse liegt wie starke und unabhängige internationale Organisationen und globale Normen und Regeln, die für alle gelten. Und sie muss spezifizieren, für welche Veränderungen sie sich einsetzen will.

Die Zeiten für multilaterales Handeln sind schwierig. Viele blicken hoffnungsvoll auf Deutschland, das mit der Allianz für Multilateralismus einen wichtigen Kontrapunkt zur Devise „Mein Land zuerst“ setzt. Umso wichtiger ist es, dass sich die Bundesregierung mit ihrem neuen Weißbuch für Multilateralismus inhaltlich klar positioniert. Sie muss der eigenen Bevölkerung und anderen Staaten klar kommunizieren, warum die Zusammenarbeit mit anderen Staaten, auch wenn sie oft mühsam ist und stets Kompromisse erfordert, genauso im ureigenen deutschen Interesse liegt wie starke und unabhängige internationale Organisationen und globale Normen und Regeln, die für alle gelten. Und sie muss spezifizieren, für welche Veränderungen sie sich einsetzen will.

Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.

Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.

Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.

Bund und Länder haben im Rahmen ihrer Beratungen zum weiteren Vorgehen in der Corona-Pandemie erste Öffnungsschritte beschlossen. Dazu ein Statement von Marcel Fratzscher, Präsident des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin):

Die Entscheidung der Ministerpräsidentenkonferenz ist ein Eingeständnis des Scheiterns. Bund und Länder haben sich zu einem Kurs der Lockerungen entschieden, obwohl die Zahl der Infizierten hoch ist und wieder steigt. Es fehlt an überzeugenden Maßnahmen, wie eine dritte Infektionswelle verhindert werden soll. Viele Ankündigungen der Politik – von breit verfügbaren, kostenlosen Tests über eine bessere Nachverfolgung der Infektionsketten bis hin zu mehr verfügbarem Impfstoff – haben sich bisher als leere Versprechen erwiesen. Und es deutet zu wenig darauf hin, dass diese Vorhaben bald realisiert werden. Bund und Länder sind größtenteils unvorbereitet auf die Konsequenzen ihrer eigenen, nun beschlossenen Schritte.

Die Lockerungen werden einen signifikanten Schaden für Gesundheit und auch für die Wirtschaft verursachen. Eine starke dritte Infektionswelle wird wahrscheinlicher, was zu einem Jo-Jo-Effekt mit erneuten Einschränkungen führen könnte. Schlimmer als die Restriktionen der vergangenen Monate ist für Unternehmen jedoch die fehlende Planungssicherheit.

Die Kehrtwende der Politik in ihrer Corona-Strategie ist symptomatisch für ihre Zögerlichkeit und Zerstrittenheit, die zu einem massiven Verlust ihrer Glaubwürdigkeit geführt haben. Durch diese Fehler hat die eigentlich kluge Strategie an Akzeptanz in der Bevölkerung verloren. Der Richtungswechsel wird diesen Verlust an Akzeptanz jedoch nicht stoppen können, sondern weiter beschleunigen.

Displaced people face many challenges when integrating into the labor market in their host communities. They are also more likely than the host population to be employed in sectors that are highly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as manufacturing, accommodation, and food services. And they are mostly employed informally, and thus have no job security or access to social safety nets during the COVID-19 related economic downturn.

Displaced people face many challenges when integrating into the labor market in their host communities. They are also more likely than the host population to be employed in sectors that are highly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as manufacturing, accommodation, and food services. And they are mostly employed informally, and thus have no job security or access to social safety nets during the COVID-19 related economic downturn.

Displaced people face many challenges when integrating into the labor market in their host communities. They are also more likely than the host population to be employed in sectors that are highly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as manufacturing, accommodation, and food services. And they are mostly employed informally, and thus have no job security or access to social safety nets during the COVID-19 related economic downturn.

Pressure is mounting on international development cooperation agencies to prove the impact of their work. Private and public commissioners as well as the general public are increasingly asking for robust evidence of impact. In this context, rigorous impact evaluation (RIE) methods are increasingly receiving attention within the broader German development system and in GIZ. Compared to other implementing agencies such as DFID or USAid, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH has so far relatively little experience in systematically applying rigorous methods of impact evaluation. This is particularly true in the governance sector. In order to gain more experience and to understand which methods and formats are best suited for GIZ governance programmes, the Governance and Conflict division and the Africa department launched the ‘Impact Initiative Africa’ in 2016, a cooperative effort with several programmes in Africa. The Initiative set out to apply the experiences from GIZ governance programmes to design and conduct RIEs, and to use the results to steer programme implementation. Initially, the Initiative included three countries: Benin (Programme for Decentralisation and Local Development), Malawi (Support to Public Financial and Economic Management) and Mozambique (Good Financial Governance in Mozambique). During its implementation, the Initiative also benefitted from the experience of two additional governance programmes which had already undertaken RIEs, namely Peru (Citizen-oriented State Reform Programme) and Pakistan (Support to Local Governance Programme II). This report summarizes the insights gained from these experiences and discusses opportunities and limitations regarding the use and usability of RIEs in GIZ governance programmes as well as proposals on how to organise RIEs to maximise learning potential and benefits for the specific programmes and the GIZ Governance sector at large.

Pressure is mounting on international development cooperation agencies to prove the impact of their work. Private and public commissioners as well as the general public are increasingly asking for robust evidence of impact. In this context, rigorous impact evaluation (RIE) methods are increasingly receiving attention within the broader German development system and in GIZ. Compared to other implementing agencies such as DFID or USAid, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH has so far relatively little experience in systematically applying rigorous methods of impact evaluation. This is particularly true in the governance sector. In order to gain more experience and to understand which methods and formats are best suited for GIZ governance programmes, the Governance and Conflict division and the Africa department launched the ‘Impact Initiative Africa’ in 2016, a cooperative effort with several programmes in Africa. The Initiative set out to apply the experiences from GIZ governance programmes to design and conduct RIEs, and to use the results to steer programme implementation. Initially, the Initiative included three countries: Benin (Programme for Decentralisation and Local Development), Malawi (Support to Public Financial and Economic Management) and Mozambique (Good Financial Governance in Mozambique). During its implementation, the Initiative also benefitted from the experience of two additional governance programmes which had already undertaken RIEs, namely Peru (Citizen-oriented State Reform Programme) and Pakistan (Support to Local Governance Programme II). This report summarizes the insights gained from these experiences and discusses opportunities and limitations regarding the use and usability of RIEs in GIZ governance programmes as well as proposals on how to organise RIEs to maximise learning potential and benefits for the specific programmes and the GIZ Governance sector at large.

Pressure is mounting on international development cooperation agencies to prove the impact of their work. Private and public commissioners as well as the general public are increasingly asking for robust evidence of impact. In this context, rigorous impact evaluation (RIE) methods are increasingly receiving attention within the broader German development system and in GIZ. Compared to other implementing agencies such as DFID or USAid, the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH has so far relatively little experience in systematically applying rigorous methods of impact evaluation. This is particularly true in the governance sector. In order to gain more experience and to understand which methods and formats are best suited for GIZ governance programmes, the Governance and Conflict division and the Africa department launched the ‘Impact Initiative Africa’ in 2016, a cooperative effort with several programmes in Africa. The Initiative set out to apply the experiences from GIZ governance programmes to design and conduct RIEs, and to use the results to steer programme implementation. Initially, the Initiative included three countries: Benin (Programme for Decentralisation and Local Development), Malawi (Support to Public Financial and Economic Management) and Mozambique (Good Financial Governance in Mozambique). During its implementation, the Initiative also benefitted from the experience of two additional governance programmes which had already undertaken RIEs, namely Peru (Citizen-oriented State Reform Programme) and Pakistan (Support to Local Governance Programme II). This report summarizes the insights gained from these experiences and discusses opportunities and limitations regarding the use and usability of RIEs in GIZ governance programmes as well as proposals on how to organise RIEs to maximise learning potential and benefits for the specific programmes and the GIZ Governance sector at large.

The promotion of Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development is one of the 169 targets of the 2030 Agenda, and considered a key means of implementation. The 2030 Agenda, while noble and necessary to put humanity on a sustainable path, has vastly exacerbated the complexity and ambiguity of development policymaking. This article challenges two assumptions that are common in both policy discussions and associated scholarly debates: First, the technocratic belief that policy coherence is an authentically attainable objective; and second, whether efforts to improve the coherence within and across policies makes achieving the Sustainable Development Goals more likely. We unpack the conventional ‘win-win’ understanding of the policy coherence concept to illustrate that fundamentally incompatible political interests continue to shape global development, and that these cannot be managed away. We argue that heuristic, problem-driven frameworks are needed to promote coherence in settings where these fundamental inconsistencies are likely to persist. Instead of mapping synergies ex-ante, future research and policy debates should focus on navigating political trade-offs and hierarchies while confronting the longer-term goal conflicts that reproduce unsustainable policy choices.