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Уулзалт, хураамж ба мэдээллийн урсгал: Монгол улсад уул уурхайн болон усны бодлогыг зохицуулах нь (Mongolian version of: Forums, fees and data flows - coordinating mining and water policy in Mongolia)

Эрдэс болон металл олборлох нь олборлолтод шаардлагатай усны хэмжээ, хаягдал ус хаях болон усны нөөцөд үзүүлэх боломжит бохирдлын хувьд усанд томоохон ул мөр үлдээдэг. Иймд уул уурхай болон усны салбар хооронд зохицуулалт хийх нь маш чухал. Уул уурхайн усны нөөц болон усны нөөцөөс хамааралтай орон нутагт үзүүлэх сөрөг нөлөөллийг бууруулах зорилготой энэ хүрээний олон тооны хэрэгслүүдийг гаргасан байдаг. Үүнд байгаль орчинд нөлөөлөх байдлын үнэлгээ (БОНБҮ), эдгээр үйл явцуудад болон голын сав газрын менежментэд оролцогч талуудын оролцоог хангах, уурхайд хаягдал ус цэвэрлэх сэдэлжүүлэлтийн төлбөрийн схемүүд зэрэг багтана. Хэрэгсэл бүрт нэлээд хэдэн урьдчилсан нөхцөлийг бүрдүүлэх хэрэгтэй учраас тэдгээрийг хэрэгжүүлэх эсэх, хэрхэн хэрэгжүүлэх нь үндэсний, бүсийн болон дотоодын байдлаас хамаарна.

Энэ судалгааны хураангуй тайланд Монгол улсыг бид жишээ судалгааны тохиолдол болгон авч, оролцогч талуудын оролцоо, хаягдал ус цэвэрлэх сэдэлжүүлэлт хоёр нь зохицуулалтыг сайжруулах үндсэн хоёр стратеги гэж үзнэ. Бид эдгээр стратегийг бодлогод хэрхэн хөрвүүлж, хоёр зэргэлдээ голын сав газарт бодитоор хэрхэн хэрэгжүүлснийг үнэлнэ. Ингэхдээ доогуур түвшний захиргааны нэгжүүд дэх хүн хүчний болон санхүүгийн чадавх, устай холбоотой мэдээллийн хүртээмжийг байгалийн нөөцийн үр дүнтэй засаглалын урьдчилсан нөхцөл гэж тусгайлан анхаарч үзнэ. Монгол улсын засаглалын систем олон тооны үйл явцуудаар оролцогч талуудын оролцоог хангадаг гэж заадаг бөгөөд хамгийн чухал нь голын сав газрын олон талт платформууд (ГСГОТП) болон БОНБҮ-ний журмын дагуу хийгддэг орон нутгийн хэлэлцүүлгүүдээр дамжуулан хангах гэдгийг бид олж тогтоосон. Гэхдээ

одоогоор судалгааны бүсийн ГСГОТП нь ихэнхдээ доогуур түвшний захиргааны ажилтнуудыг оруулан гишүүдээ шинэчлэх гэж байгаа ба энд орон нутгийн хэлэлцүүлэг бараг хийгддэггүй.Хаягдал усыг цэвэрлэх сэдэлжүүлэлтийн чиглэлээр Монгол улс 2019 оны зун Ус бохирдуулсны төлбөрийн тухай хуулийн нэмэлт, өөрчлөлтийг баталсан бөгөөд одоогоор хэрэгжүүлэх гарын авлагыг боловсруулж байна.Хүндрэлүүд нь сав газрын усны чанарын мэдээллийг цуглуулах болон хангалттай дээж авах, шинжилгээ хийх баталгаатай холбоотой. Энэ нь хамаарах мэдээллийг авах эсвэл үнэлэхэд хүндрэлтэй тулгардаг, доогуур түвшний захиргааны нэгжүүдийн хүн хүч, санхүүгийн чадавх хязгаарлагдмал байгаатай холбоотой. Бид дараах арга хэмжээг зөвлөж байна. Үүнд:

  • Тэнцвэртэй хүртээмж болон платформ дахь хэлэлцүүлгийг хангахын тулд нийгэм, эдийн засгийн байдлын ялгааг харгалзан хувийн хэвшил болон иргэний нийгмийн төлөөллийг түлхүү оролцуулах хэлбэрээр ГСГОТП дахь оролцогч талуудын ялгаатай байдлыг бий болгох
  • БОНБҮ-ний хүрээнд олон нийтийн хэлэлцүүлгийг идэвхжүүлэх (уул уурхайн лиценз авах болон БОНБҮ-г батлуулах гэх мэт) ба Засгийн газраас баталсан дүрэм, журмуудыг нээлттэй болгох, энэ хүрээнд хариуцлага тооцдог болох
  • Усны мэдээллийг олон нийтэд илүү хүртээмжтэй болгох
  • Уул уурхайн хаягдал усыг хаяхын өмнө цэвэрлэхэд урамшуулал олгохын тулд Ус бохирдуулсны төлбөрийн тухай хуулийг хурдхан хэрэгжүүлэх
  • Эрх мэдлээ хэрэгжүүлэх боломжийг нь бүрдүүлэхийн тулд доогуур түвшний захиргааны байгууллагуудыг чадавхжуулах ба ГСГОТП-д санхүүжилт олгох.

Уулзалт, хураамж ба мэдээллийн урсгал: Монгол улсад уул уурхайн болон усны бодлогыг зохицуулах нь (Mongolian version of: Forums, fees and data flows - coordinating mining and water policy in Mongolia)

Эрдэс болон металл олборлох нь олборлолтод шаардлагатай усны хэмжээ, хаягдал ус хаях болон усны нөөцөд үзүүлэх боломжит бохирдлын хувьд усанд томоохон ул мөр үлдээдэг. Иймд уул уурхай болон усны салбар хооронд зохицуулалт хийх нь маш чухал. Уул уурхайн усны нөөц болон усны нөөцөөс хамааралтай орон нутагт үзүүлэх сөрөг нөлөөллийг бууруулах зорилготой энэ хүрээний олон тооны хэрэгслүүдийг гаргасан байдаг. Үүнд байгаль орчинд нөлөөлөх байдлын үнэлгээ (БОНБҮ), эдгээр үйл явцуудад болон голын сав газрын менежментэд оролцогч талуудын оролцоог хангах, уурхайд хаягдал ус цэвэрлэх сэдэлжүүлэлтийн төлбөрийн схемүүд зэрэг багтана. Хэрэгсэл бүрт нэлээд хэдэн урьдчилсан нөхцөлийг бүрдүүлэх хэрэгтэй учраас тэдгээрийг хэрэгжүүлэх эсэх, хэрхэн хэрэгжүүлэх нь үндэсний, бүсийн болон дотоодын байдлаас хамаарна.

Энэ судалгааны хураангуй тайланд Монгол улсыг бид жишээ судалгааны тохиолдол болгон авч, оролцогч талуудын оролцоо, хаягдал ус цэвэрлэх сэдэлжүүлэлт хоёр нь зохицуулалтыг сайжруулах үндсэн хоёр стратеги гэж үзнэ. Бид эдгээр стратегийг бодлогод хэрхэн хөрвүүлж, хоёр зэргэлдээ голын сав газарт бодитоор хэрхэн хэрэгжүүлснийг үнэлнэ. Ингэхдээ доогуур түвшний захиргааны нэгжүүд дэх хүн хүчний болон санхүүгийн чадавх, устай холбоотой мэдээллийн хүртээмжийг байгалийн нөөцийн үр дүнтэй засаглалын урьдчилсан нөхцөл гэж тусгайлан анхаарч үзнэ. Монгол улсын засаглалын систем олон тооны үйл явцуудаар оролцогч талуудын оролцоог хангадаг гэж заадаг бөгөөд хамгийн чухал нь голын сав газрын олон талт платформууд (ГСГОТП) болон БОНБҮ-ний журмын дагуу хийгддэг орон нутгийн хэлэлцүүлгүүдээр дамжуулан хангах гэдгийг бид олж тогтоосон. Гэхдээ

одоогоор судалгааны бүсийн ГСГОТП нь ихэнхдээ доогуур түвшний захиргааны ажилтнуудыг оруулан гишүүдээ шинэчлэх гэж байгаа ба энд орон нутгийн хэлэлцүүлэг бараг хийгддэггүй.Хаягдал усыг цэвэрлэх сэдэлжүүлэлтийн чиглэлээр Монгол улс 2019 оны зун Ус бохирдуулсны төлбөрийн тухай хуулийн нэмэлт, өөрчлөлтийг баталсан бөгөөд одоогоор хэрэгжүүлэх гарын авлагыг боловсруулж байна.Хүндрэлүүд нь сав газрын усны чанарын мэдээллийг цуглуулах болон хангалттай дээж авах, шинжилгээ хийх баталгаатай холбоотой. Энэ нь хамаарах мэдээллийг авах эсвэл үнэлэхэд хүндрэлтэй тулгардаг, доогуур түвшний захиргааны нэгжүүдийн хүн хүч, санхүүгийн чадавх хязгаарлагдмал байгаатай холбоотой. Бид дараах арга хэмжээг зөвлөж байна. Үүнд:

  • Тэнцвэртэй хүртээмж болон платформ дахь хэлэлцүүлгийг хангахын тулд нийгэм, эдийн засгийн байдлын ялгааг харгалзан хувийн хэвшил болон иргэний нийгмийн төлөөллийг түлхүү оролцуулах хэлбэрээр ГСГОТП дахь оролцогч талуудын ялгаатай байдлыг бий болгох
  • БОНБҮ-ний хүрээнд олон нийтийн хэлэлцүүлгийг идэвхжүүлэх (уул уурхайн лиценз авах болон БОНБҮ-г батлуулах гэх мэт) ба Засгийн газраас баталсан дүрэм, журмуудыг нээлттэй болгох, энэ хүрээнд хариуцлага тооцдог болох
  • Усны мэдээллийг олон нийтэд илүү хүртээмжтэй болгох
  • Уул уурхайн хаягдал усыг хаяхын өмнө цэвэрлэхэд урамшуулал олгохын тулд Ус бохирдуулсны төлбөрийн тухай хуулийг хурдхан хэрэгжүүлэх
  • Эрх мэдлээ хэрэгжүүлэх боломжийг нь бүрдүүлэхийн тулд доогуур түвшний захиргааны байгууллагуудыг чадавхжуулах ба ГСГОТП-д санхүүжилт олгох.

Wissenschaftliche/n MitarbeiterIn in der Abteilung Makroökonomie

Die Abteilung Makroökonomie sucht ab 1. Juli 2021 eine/n

wissenschaftliche/n MitarbeiterIn (w/m/div)

für 6 Monate im Rahmen einer Elternzeitvertretung.


Tax expenditure reporting and domestic revenue mobilization in Africa

The use of tax expenditures (TEs) is an important fiscal practice that is often overlooked in public spending debates. The fiscal cost as well as the lack of effectiveness of TEs can be significant. This chapter describes the state of TE reporting across the world, focusing on Africa. It begins by explaining in detail what TEs are and what their role in government expenditure is. It proceeds by offering examples of the fiscal cost of these provisions, their (in)effectiveness, and the reasons why they are often hard to remove. The main portion of the chapter focuses on the lack and inconsistency of TE reporting. The chapter provides the first results of the “Global Tax Expenditures Database” (GTED), an ongoing project aiming to increase transparency and boost research in the TE field. The GTED reveals that over 64% of African countries do not provide any information on their TEs, while most of the countries that do report on TEs leave out important information such as the policy objectives and beneficiaries of those provisions. Lastly, using the available data, the chapter reports that, on average, TEs in African countries account for 2.8% of GDP and 17.8% of total tax revenue, and being as high as 7.8% (in Senegal) and 58.4% (in Mauritania), respectively.

Tax expenditure reporting and domestic revenue mobilization in Africa

The use of tax expenditures (TEs) is an important fiscal practice that is often overlooked in public spending debates. The fiscal cost as well as the lack of effectiveness of TEs can be significant. This chapter describes the state of TE reporting across the world, focusing on Africa. It begins by explaining in detail what TEs are and what their role in government expenditure is. It proceeds by offering examples of the fiscal cost of these provisions, their (in)effectiveness, and the reasons why they are often hard to remove. The main portion of the chapter focuses on the lack and inconsistency of TE reporting. The chapter provides the first results of the “Global Tax Expenditures Database” (GTED), an ongoing project aiming to increase transparency and boost research in the TE field. The GTED reveals that over 64% of African countries do not provide any information on their TEs, while most of the countries that do report on TEs leave out important information such as the policy objectives and beneficiaries of those provisions. Lastly, using the available data, the chapter reports that, on average, TEs in African countries account for 2.8% of GDP and 17.8% of total tax revenue, and being as high as 7.8% (in Senegal) and 58.4% (in Mauritania), respectively.

Tax expenditure reporting and domestic revenue mobilization in Africa

The use of tax expenditures (TEs) is an important fiscal practice that is often overlooked in public spending debates. The fiscal cost as well as the lack of effectiveness of TEs can be significant. This chapter describes the state of TE reporting across the world, focusing on Africa. It begins by explaining in detail what TEs are and what their role in government expenditure is. It proceeds by offering examples of the fiscal cost of these provisions, their (in)effectiveness, and the reasons why they are often hard to remove. The main portion of the chapter focuses on the lack and inconsistency of TE reporting. The chapter provides the first results of the “Global Tax Expenditures Database” (GTED), an ongoing project aiming to increase transparency and boost research in the TE field. The GTED reveals that over 64% of African countries do not provide any information on their TEs, while most of the countries that do report on TEs leave out important information such as the policy objectives and beneficiaries of those provisions. Lastly, using the available data, the chapter reports that, on average, TEs in African countries account for 2.8% of GDP and 17.8% of total tax revenue, and being as high as 7.8% (in Senegal) and 58.4% (in Mauritania), respectively.

Knowledge diplomacy and the future(s) of global cooperation

Scientific and expert knowledge is central to any sustainable future. Because consensual knowledge establishes the parameters within which decisions can be made despite complexity and uncertainty, it assumes a facilitating function. This can be for example well observed on how national strategies to achieve sustainability are developed, legitimized, implemented, and assessed. Policy-makers consult scientific experts to better understand problem issues and to come up with evidence-based solutions that can be jointly accepted by any political ideology and by the constituents. At the same time, the reliance of policy-making to scientific knowledge increases the demand or need to be critical of the emerging scientific authority or technocracy. In the context of transformation to sustainability (T2S) where the outcomes of bargaining and persuasion games represent new lock-ins, the ability or the inability to influence the definition of these lock-ins through equitable access to knowledge is integral to the legitimacy of T2S.
Knowledge diplomacy (and how it leads up to consensual knowledge) is an important driver of creating visions and narratives on sustainable futures. At the same time, the transformation process towards sustainability creates new norms for example in governance and social relations that have implications to how knowledge diplomacy is conducted. Expanding access to education as a strategy to reduce income inequality is more likely to empower a broader citizen participation in consensual knowledge making and thus in policy-making. Building on the author’s work on Sustainable Development Pathways, this article introduces three possible futures scenarios of how knowledge diplomacy can unfold depending on how access to scientific and expert knowledge translates into convening power: convergent cosmopolitan society (melting pot 1), convergent liberal world (melting pot 2), and divergent glocality (salad bowl).

Knowledge diplomacy and the future(s) of global cooperation

Scientific and expert knowledge is central to any sustainable future. Because consensual knowledge establishes the parameters within which decisions can be made despite complexity and uncertainty, it assumes a facilitating function. This can be for example well observed on how national strategies to achieve sustainability are developed, legitimized, implemented, and assessed. Policy-makers consult scientific experts to better understand problem issues and to come up with evidence-based solutions that can be jointly accepted by any political ideology and by the constituents. At the same time, the reliance of policy-making to scientific knowledge increases the demand or need to be critical of the emerging scientific authority or technocracy. In the context of transformation to sustainability (T2S) where the outcomes of bargaining and persuasion games represent new lock-ins, the ability or the inability to influence the definition of these lock-ins through equitable access to knowledge is integral to the legitimacy of T2S.
Knowledge diplomacy (and how it leads up to consensual knowledge) is an important driver of creating visions and narratives on sustainable futures. At the same time, the transformation process towards sustainability creates new norms for example in governance and social relations that have implications to how knowledge diplomacy is conducted. Expanding access to education as a strategy to reduce income inequality is more likely to empower a broader citizen participation in consensual knowledge making and thus in policy-making. Building on the author’s work on Sustainable Development Pathways, this article introduces three possible futures scenarios of how knowledge diplomacy can unfold depending on how access to scientific and expert knowledge translates into convening power: convergent cosmopolitan society (melting pot 1), convergent liberal world (melting pot 2), and divergent glocality (salad bowl).

Knowledge diplomacy and the future(s) of global cooperation

Scientific and expert knowledge is central to any sustainable future. Because consensual knowledge establishes the parameters within which decisions can be made despite complexity and uncertainty, it assumes a facilitating function. This can be for example well observed on how national strategies to achieve sustainability are developed, legitimized, implemented, and assessed. Policy-makers consult scientific experts to better understand problem issues and to come up with evidence-based solutions that can be jointly accepted by any political ideology and by the constituents. At the same time, the reliance of policy-making to scientific knowledge increases the demand or need to be critical of the emerging scientific authority or technocracy. In the context of transformation to sustainability (T2S) where the outcomes of bargaining and persuasion games represent new lock-ins, the ability or the inability to influence the definition of these lock-ins through equitable access to knowledge is integral to the legitimacy of T2S.
Knowledge diplomacy (and how it leads up to consensual knowledge) is an important driver of creating visions and narratives on sustainable futures. At the same time, the transformation process towards sustainability creates new norms for example in governance and social relations that have implications to how knowledge diplomacy is conducted. Expanding access to education as a strategy to reduce income inequality is more likely to empower a broader citizen participation in consensual knowledge making and thus in policy-making. Building on the author’s work on Sustainable Development Pathways, this article introduces three possible futures scenarios of how knowledge diplomacy can unfold depending on how access to scientific and expert knowledge translates into convening power: convergent cosmopolitan society (melting pot 1), convergent liberal world (melting pot 2), and divergent glocality (salad bowl).

Studentische Hilfskraft (w/m/div) in der Abteilung Energie, Verkehr, Umwelt

Die Abteilung Energie, Verkehr, Umwelt sucht zum nächstmöglichen Zeitpunkt eine studentische Hilfskraft (w/m/div) für 12 - 19 Wochenstunden.


Do social transfers benefit local economic development? The case of cash-for-work programmes in Jordan

The discussion paper investigates what effects cash-for-work (CfW) can have on local economic development (LED). It is based on the hypothesis that CfW, which is targeted provision of jobs to vulnerable households, affects LED directly (through employment and income for workers and the creation of public goods) but also indirectly (through multiplier and investment effects as well as better social cohesion). The article builds on quantitative and qualitative research conducted in Jordan in 2019, Jordan being a particularly interesting case for the topic: Here, different foreign donors have set up a whole bunch of different CfW programmes after 2016 to support Syrian refugees along with vulnerable Jordanians. The results confirm that CfW has an indirect impact on LED through multiplier effects since CfW participants spend most of their income locally. In addition, CfW programmes in Jordan improve the skills and employability of their participants. This upgrading does not transform into higher employment rates, however, because the Jordanian labour market is extremely tight. Finally, the programmes empower women; they open new doors to the labour market and contribute to a – however not irrevocable – change of traditional gender roles. Our suggestion is thus that other refugee host countries set up CfW programmes as well, covering both refugees and low-income nationals.

Do social transfers benefit local economic development? The case of cash-for-work programmes in Jordan

The discussion paper investigates what effects cash-for-work (CfW) can have on local economic development (LED). It is based on the hypothesis that CfW, which is targeted provision of jobs to vulnerable households, affects LED directly (through employment and income for workers and the creation of public goods) but also indirectly (through multiplier and investment effects as well as better social cohesion). The article builds on quantitative and qualitative research conducted in Jordan in 2019, Jordan being a particularly interesting case for the topic: Here, different foreign donors have set up a whole bunch of different CfW programmes after 2016 to support Syrian refugees along with vulnerable Jordanians. The results confirm that CfW has an indirect impact on LED through multiplier effects since CfW participants spend most of their income locally. In addition, CfW programmes in Jordan improve the skills and employability of their participants. This upgrading does not transform into higher employment rates, however, because the Jordanian labour market is extremely tight. Finally, the programmes empower women; they open new doors to the labour market and contribute to a – however not irrevocable – change of traditional gender roles. Our suggestion is thus that other refugee host countries set up CfW programmes as well, covering both refugees and low-income nationals.

Do social transfers benefit local economic development? The case of cash-for-work programmes in Jordan

The discussion paper investigates what effects cash-for-work (CfW) can have on local economic development (LED). It is based on the hypothesis that CfW, which is targeted provision of jobs to vulnerable households, affects LED directly (through employment and income for workers and the creation of public goods) but also indirectly (through multiplier and investment effects as well as better social cohesion). The article builds on quantitative and qualitative research conducted in Jordan in 2019, Jordan being a particularly interesting case for the topic: Here, different foreign donors have set up a whole bunch of different CfW programmes after 2016 to support Syrian refugees along with vulnerable Jordanians. The results confirm that CfW has an indirect impact on LED through multiplier effects since CfW participants spend most of their income locally. In addition, CfW programmes in Jordan improve the skills and employability of their participants. This upgrading does not transform into higher employment rates, however, because the Jordanian labour market is extremely tight. Finally, the programmes empower women; they open new doors to the labour market and contribute to a – however not irrevocable – change of traditional gender roles. Our suggestion is thus that other refugee host countries set up CfW programmes as well, covering both refugees and low-income nationals.

Net-zero central banking: A new phase in greening the financial system

Reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is a critical goal of climate policy. Across the world, growing numbers of governments are introducing targets and plans to achieve net-zero around the middle of this century. Alongside this, leading banks and investors are committing to align their portfolios with net-zero by 2050. As guardians of the financial system, central banks and supervisors also need to introduce explicit strategies to support the transition to net-zero as the next stage in confronting the risks of climate change. This report is a first attempt to examine the role that central banks and financial supervisors could play in supporting the transition to net-zero.

Net-zero central banking: A new phase in greening the financial system

Reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is a critical goal of climate policy. Across the world, growing numbers of governments are introducing targets and plans to achieve net-zero around the middle of this century. Alongside this, leading banks and investors are committing to align their portfolios with net-zero by 2050. As guardians of the financial system, central banks and supervisors also need to introduce explicit strategies to support the transition to net-zero as the next stage in confronting the risks of climate change. This report is a first attempt to examine the role that central banks and financial supervisors could play in supporting the transition to net-zero.

Net-zero central banking: A new phase in greening the financial system

Reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is a critical goal of climate policy. Across the world, growing numbers of governments are introducing targets and plans to achieve net-zero around the middle of this century. Alongside this, leading banks and investors are committing to align their portfolios with net-zero by 2050. As guardians of the financial system, central banks and supervisors also need to introduce explicit strategies to support the transition to net-zero as the next stage in confronting the risks of climate change. This report is a first attempt to examine the role that central banks and financial supervisors could play in supporting the transition to net-zero.

Bracing for the typhoon: climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia

This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country-specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country-specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much-needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries.

Bracing for the typhoon: climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia

This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country-specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country-specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much-needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries.

Bracing for the typhoon: climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia

This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country-specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country-specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much-needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries.

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