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This week France commemorates the victims of the attacks in Paris on 13 November 2015, in which Islamist terrorists killed 130 people at the Bataclan concert hall, outside the Stade de France football stadium and at several street cafés. Commentators take stock a decade on.

On Thursday, Parliament supported the nominations of Nikolaos Milionis from Greece and Pierre Moscovici from France for the European Court of Auditors (ECA).
Committee on Budgetary Control

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

On Thursday, Parliament supported the nominations of Nikolaos Milionis from Greece and Pierre Moscovici from France for the European Court of Auditors (ECA).
Committee on Budgetary Control

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

On Thursday, Parliament supported the nominations of Nikolaos Milionis from Greece and Pierre Moscovici from France for the European Court of Auditors (ECA).
Committee on Budgetary Control

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

On Thursday, Parliament supported the nominations of Nikolaos Milionis from Greece and Pierre Moscovici from France for the European Court of Auditors (ECA).
Committee on Budgetary Control

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

Ricardo Borges de Castro & Leopold Schmertzing, Non-Resident Fellows on Strategic Foresight, ELIAMEP

In recent years, the European Union has increased its investment in strategic foresight capabilities. Within its institutions – the European Commission, the European Parliament, the Council of the EU, and the European External Action Service – and collectively through the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), an EU inter-institutional network focused on global trends, there has been a concerted effort to boost Europe’s anticipatory edge. Yet, recent events show that these processes and insights have not sufficiently permeated the EU and, especially, national policymaking and preparedness. There is now a window of opportunity for Europe to review and strengthen its strategic capabilities.

No One Saw it Coming?

This year once again revealed how unprepared much of European politics remains for plausible events and crises. Donald Trump’s re-election and its implications for global politics and trade, Moscow’s ever-evolving forms of aggression towards Ukraine and intimidation towards Europe, and the recent Nexperia’s chip supply-chain shock: what else needs to happen before Europe stops being caught on the back foot and finally acts instead of reacting?

It does not have to be this way. While there are no crystal balls in policymaking and the future cannot be predicted, there are ways to improve how governments and European institutions respond, prepare and, if possible, mitigate or avert future crises. It is called strategic foresight and anticipation. This should not be a policy luxury item, but an established practice.

Preparation and resilience building begin with anticipation: identifying plausible, high-impact developments, before thinking them through systematically – from their origins and implications to ways to potentially avoid them. This needs political and real capital, but this is money well spent: the reality is that the current levels of uncertainty, volatility, and geopolitical and geoeconomic upheaval are likely to remain or even increase.

Crisis Management or Smart Democracy?

Europe cannot rely on emergency summits or improvised backroom negotiations to define its place in a changing international system, ensure its security and autonomy, or rebuild its economic and political strength. The EU needs to move from the constant crisis management of the last decade to anticipatory democracy.

Over the last years, the European Union and several European countries have built up their anticipatory and planning capabilities by setting-up and mainstreaming foresight units and departments into policy- and decision-making cycles. Today, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the Council of the EU, the EEAS, and the Committees have more robust foresight and anticipatory tools and processes than in the past and the ESPAS network continues to provide a forum for EU institutions, bodies and agencies to informally collaborate and share their perspectives on future challenges and opportunities, as well as strengthen their internal foresight and preparedness mechanisms.

Likewise, countries such as Spain or Portugal have joined others like Finland, Estonia or Slovenia in embedding foresight into their governance or parliamentary systems by creating new, whole-of-government departments for planning and strategic anticipation. The recent establishment of a Foresight Unit in the new German National Security Council is an additional relevant sign that  could be a blueprint for other European nations.  What is more, since the early 2020s there exists an EU-wide ministers for the future (and their sherpas) network that seeks to address key issues for Europe’s future.

Despite these positive developments and the potential of the existing work and capabilities for futures thinking and planning, European policymakers continue to be surprised or confounded by unexpected events and uncertainty. More foresight is certainly welcome in Europe, but what the EU needs is better foresight, more effective and agile foresight, and, above all, more honest foresight.

Europe’s Window of Opportunity?

There is a window of opportunity for the EU to strengthen its strategic and anticipatory capabilities and to become a global hub for strategic foresight.

The EU institutions  should do a ‘lessons learned’ exercise to assess what has worked and what did not work over the last ten years in building anticipatory and preparedness capabilities. While these processes are more common in the US, it is crucial that the EU understands what needs to be improved, where the unnecessary and costly overlaps and duplications are, and where collaboration or division of labour is needed or more effective.

A few of the problems in the European context are common to other parts of the world such as the fragmentation of foresight work across or within institutions, processes that shun politically charged topics, poor linkage to decision-makers, or the discontinuity of foresight functions after new electoral cycles. But it would be worth to study and understand what are EU-specific challenges that have undermined the impact of foresight and anticipatory efforts. Knowing the weaknesses is the first step to strengthen the EU’s culture of preparedness.

The needed overhaul of EU foresight capabilities is more important than ever because it happens at a time when close partners such as the United States – known for its strong foresight work and traditions – is scaling back its outreach, or shutting down important processes such as the Global Trends report, while competitors like China link anticipation, planning, and prioritisation in their next, the fifteenth, Five-Year Plan.

Since 2019, Singapore has also not organised its traditional International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS). This opened a gap for what used to be the premier global policy gathering for meaningful exchanges on strategic foresight, risks, and future opportunities among strategists, policy- and decision-makers from around the world.

Just do It

Although the EU cannot replace the US or Singapore, the ESPAS network should seize this moment to become a policy-oriented, international strategic foresight hub. As it did during President Trump’s first mandate, ESPAS could provide a global common good, strengthening long-term multilateralism and collaboration, and improving European resilience and strategic capabilities.  Today’s 2025 ESPAS Annual Conference should be the starting point for a strengthened foresight ambition in Europe and beyond.”

On Thursday, plenary supported a proposal to mobilise EU funds to help Spain and France following devastating floods and cyclones.
Committee on Budgets

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

On Thursday, plenary supported a proposal to mobilise EU funds to help Spain and France following devastating floods and cyclones.
Committee on Budgets

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

On Thursday, plenary supported a proposal to mobilise EU funds to help Spain and France following devastating floods and cyclones.
Committee on Budgets

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

On Thursday, plenary supported a proposal to mobilise EU funds to help Spain and France following devastating floods and cyclones.
Committee on Budgets

Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

La sonnette d’alarme tirée par le Ministère de la Santé aura fait l’effet d’une déflagration. Alertant sur la recrudescence de la gale et exigeant l’adoption […]

L’article Le ministère de la Santé démine la psychose de la gale : « C’est une chose tout à fait naturelle » est apparu en premier sur .

The next meeting of the Committee on Security and Defence (SEDE) is scheduled to take place on Monday, 17 November 2025 from 15.00 - 18.30 in Brussels (room ANTALL 4Q1).

Further information about the SEDE meeting can be found here.

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SEDE missions 2025:

• Djibouti - 27-29 October 2025
  
• Greenland - 15-19 September 2025
  
• Norway - 27-30 May 2025
• Moldova and Ukraine - 14-17 April 2025
  
• Bosnia and Herzegovina - 24-27 February 2025
• Israel and Palestine - 5-8 February 2025

SEDE missions 2024:

• United Kingdom - 28-30 October 2024
• Ukraine - 25-26 October 2024

SEDE Committee meetings' calendar 2025
SEDE Committee meetings' calendar 2026
EP calendar 2025
EP calendar 2026
Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP