As the nights have drawn in and the mercury has dropped, thoughts – in my neck of the woods at least – have turned to that important festivity of the six month-iversary of the referendum. Even though we’re little over five months on, we’re starting to see the wave of events asking us to reflect on the vote and on 2016 more generally.
From my perspective, the key paradox is the mix of radical rupture and apparent stasis in the British political scene. On the one hand, we have had a fundamental change of direction in the UK’s engagement with the international system and a shaking up of the party political system. On the other, we have many of the old hands still on deck and – most crucially – we still have little sense of how those old hands will pursue Brexit.
It is little exaggeration to say that we know about as much on this now as we did on the morning of 24 June, i.e. hardly anything. Whether it’s the totemic incantation of “Brexit means Brexit” or the “have cake and eat it” notes spotted this week, there is only the sense that the cunning plan gambit has failed to materialise. Of course, this is not surprising, because there is no cunning plan, no way out – in practical terms – of both limited free movement of people and not limiting free movement of goods, services and capital.
Earlier in the autumn I thought that there might be some flexibility on free movement of people from the EU27, who have other reasons to think about stepping back from a maximalist interpretation, but this has closed down of late. This is due to a more general hardening of the position that negotiations can only take place under Article 50 and mutual reassurance that the UK cannot be given a pick-and-mix deal as a reward for departure. That’s not unreasonable, especially given the growth of concern about populism post Trump (and pre-Le Pen), and the general air of messing about in London.
As David Allen Green rightly pointed out, the fight that May has to deal with is more about how she manages public opinion in the UK than it is about the EU27. It’s pretty clear that the UK can go low or high into Article 50, either retaining the four freedoms or binning them all (broadly speaking): the 27 might prefer the UK to keep them, but will cope either way. Thus it is the domestic audience that matters, because the UK government – and, to a less extent, the other member state governments – that have to get any deal approved, either formally (in parliament) or informally (in their party, the press and – eventually – elections).
If we assume that the deal side of things is broadly fixed into the high/low options, then we might usefully consider that what May is now doing is applying Lukes’ third face of power. Since she can’t impose her preferences on the public (first face) nor control the agenda (second face), she’s instead going to try and change what people want.
This really came home during this week’s exchange of letters with Donald Tusk, who rightly pointed out that the EU27 await the UK to get going with negotiations, so any uncertainty over the status of UK nationals in the EU rests firmly at the UK’s feet.
This has been part of a longer-running thread, of refusing to confirm rights for EU nationals in the UK without first getting confirmation of UK nationals’ rights in the EU. This is bar-room politics at its worst, since all sides have international treaty obligations to protect these individuals, while the alternative of forced removal is not credible, even in these febrile times: so reciprocal guarantees will be forthcoming. But May presents the situation as having an ace in her hand.
Language matter here. As the bots keep telling me on Twitter, ‘expats’ are just ‘our’ migrants. Much of the British public has a problem with immigrants, but hardly anyone has a problem with expats. Since I assume May is a well-informed and thoughtful individual, I also have to assume that she knows full well what she is doing here and the simplest explanation I can see is that she is seeking to kick up a mess about ‘expats’ so that there’s an outcry from the media and her party to act to save them. And the only way she can do that is by granting reciprocal rights to EU nationals, which might well include free movement (assuming the ‘expats’ want that too – which I’m guessing they do from my passage through Malaga airport last month).
In short, May is seeking to reframe the public debate, so that the weight of the ‘people discussion’ falls on ‘expats’ rather than ‘immigrants’. And if you couple that to the growing sense that people might be more open to the trade-off of market access in return for freedom of movement, then you have a basis for the high deal in Article 50.
Whether this will work, or can work, is a different issue. The fight over Parliamentary approval of Article 50 notification has distracted many in her party and the press, but at some point this effort will get noticed and attacked. Then it will be a question of how skillfully May can defend her position, which has not yet been seriously challenged. Someone did note to me the other day that the Tories won’t want to eject May because that would mean a second Prime Minister without an election: given how high temperatures have risen in the party, even that might not be enough to stop another regicide.
The post The third face of Brexit appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
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For much of the recent past, Spain’s Congreso de los Diputados offered little in the way of political entertainment.
Read moreNovember 30, 2016 (JUBA) - The IGAD joint ceasefire monitoring mechanism announced the arrival of its team to the troubled Yei town in Central Equatoria were reports mention about insecurity and grave human rights violations.
Last Monday, South Sudanese security forces prevented a CTSAMM team had been prevented from travelling to Yei to assess the security situation there after reports about clashes between armed groups and the government forces but also attacks on civilians.
At the time, the CTSAMM said the incident took place while had obtained the needed authorisations and informed all the concerned authorities, including the Joint Military Ceasefire Commission.
"The CTSAMM team have now successfully carried out their journey and reached Yei Town today, the 30th November, 2016. The team will now undertake a five day mission in the area," said a short communiqué extended to Sudan Tribune on Wednesday.
The monitoring mission added the move came after "after multiple discussions between the CTSAMM leadership and the authorities".
South Sudanese authorities often speak about unilateral decision by officers on the ground, and point it was not a deliberate act.
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November 30, 2016 (KHARTOUM) - The Central Committee of the Sudanese Pharmacists (CCSP) said it would go on a partial strike and organize a protest on Thursday to reject drug price increase and demand release of its detained members.
Earlier in November, Central Bank of Sudan (CBoS) announced it will no longer provide US dollar for drug importation at rate of 7,5 Sudanese pounds (SDG) forcing pharmaceutical companies to buy the dollar from the black market at 17,5 pounds.
Following the CBoS's decision, the Sudan Pharmacy Council (SPC) issued a new list showing the drug price has drastically increased by 100 to 300 percent.
The decision stirred a large wave of protests across Sudan. Also, some two hundred private pharmacies in Khartoum went on partial strike and closed their doors from 09:00 am to 05:00 pm last week in protest against the government's move.
In a statement extended to Sudan Tribune on Wednesday, the CCSP said that pharmacies at hospitals and medical insurance pharmacies would continue to provide the service to the needy during the partial strike on Thursday.
The CCSP added that it would organize a peaceful sit-in at the premises of the Pharmacists House at 11:00 am (local time) on Thursday to express refusal for the increase of drug price and demand release of the detained pharmacists.
The statement pointed to the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) continued daily summoning and detention of three CCSP members including Hatim al-Da'ak, Baha al-Din Ahmed al-Hag and Al-Tayeb Bukhari.
“These repeated harassments and detentions wouldn't distract or hold us back from the main goal of rejecting and peacefully resisting the decision to lift subsidies on medicine” read the statement.
The CCSP said it would escalate resistance and continue to go on partial strikes for longer periods of time if its demands were not met, saying the decision to increase drug price has already been implemented.
It described the statements by the Health Minister Bahar Idris Abu Garda about the cancellation of the new drug price list as mere “deception” and “malicious attempt”, saying he didn't announce any decision to reinstate drug subsidy.
In an emergency press conference on Friday, Abu Garda announced that President Omer al-Bashir sacked the secretary general of the SPC and cancelled a new list of drug price he recently issued.
Large segments of the Sudanese people had engaged in a three-day civil disobedience act from 27 to 29 November to protest the recent austerity measures and the lack of freedoms.
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November 30, 2016 (KHARTOUM) - Sudan's National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) on Wednesday has continued its mass confiscations campaign against newspapers and seized copies of five dailies prompting some journalists to go on strike.
Mass confiscation has emerged as a new technique of punishment by the NISS which tend to accuse affected newspapers of disseminating news that adversely impact on national security.
At dawn on Wednesday, the NISS seized print runs of Al-Tayyar, Al-Jareeda, Al-Ayam, Al-Youm Al-Tali and Al-Watan newspapers from the printing house without giving reasons.
It is noteworthy that Al-Jareeda and Al-Ayam have been seized three times during this week while Al-Youm Al-Tali and Al-Tayyar were confiscated twice.
Also, authorities ordered to close down the independent Omdurman TV station on Sunday.
Media sources say the NISS has intensified crackdown on newspapers for publishing news reports and articles on the nationwide civil disobedience act which took place between 27 and 29 November.
Meanwhile, the Sudanese Journalists Network (SJN) on Wednesday went on strike to protest the continued mass confiscations of newspapers.
In a statement extended to Sudan Tribune, the unofficial union, which is a pro-democratic group of independent journalists, called on Editors-in-Chiefs and publishers to participate in the strike in order to stop NISS's crackdown on press.
Sudanese newspapers complain of the far reaching powers of the NISS which routinely punishes dailies through confiscation or suspension.
Following the lift of pre-publication censorship, the NISS started punishing newspapers retroactively by seizing copies of newspapers that breach unwritten red lines inflicting financial and moral losses on these media houses.
In February 2015, it seized copies of 14 newspapers from printing press without giving reasons.
Journalists say that NISS uses seizures of print copies of newspapers, not only to censor the media but also to weaken them economically.
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November 30, 2016 (JUBA) – Representatives of the United States and United Nations warned on Wednesday of possibilities of tension escalating in war-torn South Sudan as well as potentials of violence.
“We have credible information that the South Sudanese government is currently targeting civilians in Central Equatoria and preparing for large-scale attacks in the coming days or weeks,” Keith Harper, the U.S representative at the UN Human Rights Council, said.
A similar warning, Voice of America (VOA) reported, was also made by the U.S ambassador to the world body, Samantha Power.
“We are raising the alarm. We are calling on the government of South Sudan not to move forward with the offensive they have planned,” Power told VOA.
But, in a separate interview with the Associated Press, South Sudan's envoy to the UN, Kuol Alor Kuol Arop denied there was a build-up of forces or plans for offensives.
South Sudan is on the brink of catastrophe, a three-member UN Commission on Human Rights warned at the end of a ten-day visit.
“The stage is being set for a repeat of what happened in Rwanda and the international community is under an obligation to prevent it,” the chairperson of the Commission, Yasmin Sooka announced.
The official, in a statement, cited disturbing indicators such as an increase in hate speech, a crackdown on the media and civil society, deepening divisions between the country's 64 tribes, renewed recruitment in a country already awash with guns and the proliferation of armed groups aligned to both sides in armed conflict.
“There is already a steady process of ethnic cleansing underway in several areas of South Sudan using starvation, gang rape and the burning of villages; everywhere we went across this country we heard villagers saying they are ready to shed blood to get their land back,” said Sooka.
“Many told us it's already reached a point of no return”, she stressed.
The UN team of experts, also outlined a number of steps that the international community should take immediately to avert mass bloodshed, including the expedition of the immediate arrival of the 4,000 strong Regional Protection Force in South Sudan, ensure that the force is not restricted only to the capital, freeze assets, enact targeted sanctions and implement arms embargo on South Sudan.
“It is also urgent to set up the hybrid court promised for South Sudan,” said Ken Scott, a member of the UN Commission.
“Large parts of the country literally have no functioning courts and even the traditional reconciliation methods are now breaking down with the result that it's a free for all”, he added.
The Commission, which is due to report to the Human Rights Council in March, visited Bentiu in oil-rich Unity State where more than a hundred thousand people are sheltering in a UN protected camp.
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