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Also known as the Normandy Index, the Peace and Security Index ranks 138 countries and the 27 European Union Member States as a whole, based on specific threats to peace in each. Eleven indicators gather data on the security, economic and social situation. The indicators are identified using the EU global strategy and strategic compass, a tool EU policymakers use to assess countries at risk and in need of EU assistance.

In her foreword to the latest edition of the Index, President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, said ‘a clear understanding of the threats to peace, security and democracy around the world is crucial. This makes the Normandy Index a valuable tool for navigating today’s world’.

The results of the 2025 exercise suggest the level of threats to peace in the world is the highest in the seven years since the index began, confirming declining trends in global security resulting from the war in Ukraine, multiple crises, conflicts and geopolitical rivalry, including those linked to economic, digital and energy dimensions. Among the top three most peaceful countries are Switzerland, Iceland and Norway.

The most fragile countries are the Central African Republic, Afghanistan and Somalia. Geopolitical crisis in the European neighbourhood resulted in a fall in the EU‑27’s overall global ranking of 3 places in 2024. In 2025, the EU‑27 ranking remains the same as the previous year (10th globally). After a slight improvement from 2019 to 2022, the global peace profile (5.74 average in 2023‑2024) has also declined in the past year to 5.79 – unsurprisingly given current geopolitical tensions (10 is the highest mark).

According to the Index’s lead author, Branislav Stanicek, the 2025 edition also reflects the changed dynamics of today’s international conflicts, which particularly affect energy security and fiscal policies. He stresses: ‘International actions such as restrictive measures against Russian Federation clearly affected governmental revenue and suggests a tightening of the Russian government’s fiscal stance’. In 2025, Russia fell 16 positions down the Index, to 124th globally. However, increased sovereign debt, measured by economic indicator, also demonstrates a certain vulnerability within EU‑27 and Western democracies. Nevertheless, Professor Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University argues ‘Public debt is just a deferred tax. It will be paid by future taxpayers, either through an explicit tax increase or by inflation’.

Derived from the Index, 63 individual country case studies provide a picture of the state of peace in the world today. An online, interactive version of the Index allows data comparison across countries, regions and timeline. In 2023, the Index won the Forbes Social Communication Award (in the domain of public communication of peace and security).

The Normandy Index differs from other indices in that it adopts an approach tailored by and to EU action. It also defines conflict and the numerous stages between perfect peace and total war as a product of factors linked to the main threats identified by the EU in its external action strategy. The EU global strategy identifies the following 11 threats as the current main challenges to peace and security.  

Trends towards inflation, trade, energy disruption and weaker economies, underway since 2021, continued in 2025. Global GDP growth slowed in 2022 to 3.2 %, more than 1 percentage point less than expected at the end of 2021, mainly weighed down by Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Following 2.6 % growth in 2023 and sub-trend global growth of 2.8 % in 2024, global growth is projected to reach 3.2 % in 2025 and 3.1 % in 2026. At the same time, Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued a stark warning in October 2025 about the mounting risks facing the global economy: ‘buckle up: uncertainty is the new normal’.

Read the complete study on ‘Mapping threats to peace and democracy worldwide: Normandy Index 2025‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

Également dans l'édition de jeudi : le CFP, Jörgen Warborn, Euronews, Pfizer, l'économiste en chef de la FAO, la réglementation européenne en matière de technologie

The post Le Golfe penche pour Kiev appeared first on Euractiv FR.

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Credit: World Trade Organization (WTO)

By Kinda Mohamadieh
YAOUNDE, Cameroon, Apr 2 2026 (IPS)

The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference (MC14), which took place from 26 to 30 March 2026 in Cameroon, was reported as a collapse resulting from the stand-off between Brazil and the United States on the extension of the e-commerce moratorium. This is one screen shot of a bigger unfolding story where the US is attempting to enforce its will on the organization, while some are resisting.

The Trump administration did not pull the US out of the WTO so that it can complete a project of remaking the organization into one that fits the US’s vision of a new international order serving its ‘national security interests’. Since the Trump administration came into office, they made clear that their approach to foreign relations will be based on brutal power and politics of coercion. The WTO 14th ministerial conference is one international forum where these politics manifested.

The US vision for remaking the organization, as reflected in its submissions under the ‘WTO reform’ negotiations, along with the statement of US Trade Representative in Yaoundé, embody an attack on the raison d’etre of the organization, which is multilateralism.

Multiple US administrations had maintained a fairly consistent approach to the WTO, undermining some of its key functions, such as through paralyzing the dispute settlement function, and pushing for a self-judging non-reviewable national security exception.

The latter could effectively become an opt-out mechanism for the US from its obligations under the WTO rules including the most-favoured-nation (MFN) principle, and secure an immunity from questioning for any US unilateral trade measures packaged as a security issue.

The Trump administration’s talk at the WTO did not hide behind diplomatic or legal jargon. The US submissions made it clear that they are out to dismantle the fundamental pillar that holds the multilateral trading system together – that of non-discrimination and the MFN principle.

They want to strip away the system from an effective ‘special and differential treatment’, a core part of the original bargain that made the WTO establishment possible and that reflected in trade law an acknowledgment that one-size-fits-all rules do not work given the varying levels of development among Members.

The US vision is to turn the WTO from a multilateral organization where each Member, big or small, have an equal voice, to a platform of deals among the big players where it can effectively control the setting of the agenda and focus the organization on US corporate interests.

This is effectively what the US attempted at MC14, where they focused attention on their proposal for a permanent moratorium on customs duties on electronic commerce transmissions.

In Yaoundé, the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggested there “would be consequences,” if the US did not get this delivered. This was the US administration carrying forward the agenda of its tech corporate giants. Since 1998, the US had secured this moratorium against the growing concerns of developing countries that this practice costs them billions of dollars in forgone tariff revenue that is key for their development, industrialization and building of digital capacities.

Ironically, the Trump administration brought the multilateral trading system to its knees by its aggressive unjustified tariff policies and illegal bilateral tariff deals over the past year. In Yaoundé, the same administration denied the developing countries the legitimate use of tariff policy to advance developmental objectives and preserve digital sovereignty and policy space essential for developing their digital economy.

It is clear that the US’s fight at the WTO is not only against China. It seeks to erase any trajectory towards industrialization and competitive edge that any other developing country could potentially build under multilateralism.

With no decision on this issue nor on WTO reform, the LDC package, and the Moratorium on TRIPS non-violation complaints achieved in Yaoundé, the work will be brought back to Geneva. A question often posed in Geneva is how to keep the US engaged in the negotiations, which will become more prominent in light of what unfolded in Yaoundé.

When negotiations are overwhelmed by this question, the attention moves away from efforts to make the organization relevant for all its members, and a forum where negotiations could potentially lead to compromises and outcomes for members at different levels of development. Even decision makers in the WTO administrative body get geared towards ensuring the US stays on board. This adds to the distortions.

In this context, developing countries face the larger threats of fragmentation and distraction from their key concerns and interests. Yet, the costs of such fragmentation cannot be higher in the face of the unfolding project to remake the WTO.

Multiple US administrations showed WTO members how they can keep key negotiation agendas, like the dispute settlement reform, in limbo and block the functioning of the WTO appellate body against the will of the rest of the membership.

In this case, the US’s blocking is void of any justified principled position, but rather a brutal imposition of their will and narrow interests on the rest of the WTO membership.

In the face of the remake project of the WTO advanced by the US, and largely supported by the European Union, what Jane Kelsey calls “a coup underway at the WTO”, developing countries need to stand together despite the differences they might have on some negotiation portfolios where their national interests might dictate disparities in the negotiation positions.

In such an era, managing differences while leveraging the power of dialogue, cooperation and coalition building is crucial to maintain a voice and role in determining how the WTO will be functioning in the future.

A WTO focused on plurilaterals as a norm rather than exception will be a place where the voice of developing countries is eroded. Trade wars will potentially be imported into the WTO through simultaneous plurilateral counterinitiatives leading to further fragmentation of this trading regime. This will be a world where MFN is discarded, consensus decision-making undermined, and leverage points to advance issues of development and special and differential treatment eroded.

Developing countries should collectively assess the cost such a future hold for them and the WTO, its survival as a multilateral organization and its potential to deliver for Members at different levels of development.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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