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Un parti de l'opposition gabonaise avait appelé lundi à une journée noire. L'Alliance pour un nouveau Gabon a invité les Gabonais à se rendre au travail vêtus de noir pour protester contre les violences policières et l'injustice sociale. Le principal organisateur a s’est félicité d'un succès total alors que le pouvoir a parlé d'un flop.

Plusieurs arrestations mettent en évidence la corruption au sein du ministère sud-africain des Affaires intérieures. Chargé de l'immigration, il est régulièrement épinglé par les ONG pour les mauvaises pratiques de ses fonctionnaires et la corruption répandue dans presque tous ses services.

Brice Tchanhoun, l’ancien chef du 12ème arrondissement de Cotonou, la capitale économique du Bénin, n’est plus libre de ses mouvements. L’ancien élu communal et membre de la Renaissance du Bénin (RB), parti politique de l’ancien président de la république, Nicéphore Soglo, est depuis ce lundi 21 décembre 2015 gardé à vue.

What Ghana can learn from one little Norwegian town

The security forces in Burundi systematically killed dozens of people during violent repression in Bujumbura on 11 December, Amnesty International says.

Americas

• Raytheon has been awarded a $2.35 billion contract to deliver 52 SM-3 Block IB missiles. The contract finalizes a preliminary one for 44 missiles valued at $541 million. The addition of 8 further missiles comes as the US military is increasing its stocks of SM-3s in the wake of increased missile threats, and orders by foreign allies of its weapons systems.

• General Atomics will conduct logistical support for Predator (MQ1) and Reaper (MQ9) unmanned aerial systems for the US Air Force. The one year contract is worth $338.2 million. Work to be carried out includes program management, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, contractor field service representative support, inventory control point management, flight operations support, depot repair, and depot field maintenance. The MQ1s and MQ9s will also see sensors contractor logistics support provided by Raytheon for the year in a contract worth $49.4 million.

Middle East North Africa

• Raytheon Corp. has been awarded a $74.5 million foreign military sales contract to provide English language training and a series of Pre-PATRIOT military occupational specialty training classes to the government of Kuwait. Training is to be completed by December 17, 2018. The contract coincides with the expected June 2016 delivery from Lockheed Martin of fourteen four pack Patriot missiles and seven launcher modification kits to Kuwait. The training will increase the Gulf nation’s military integration and interoperability as it conducts military intervention as part of the Saudi Arabian led coalition in Yemen.

Europe

• Germany is looking to develop the replacement of the Tornado jet, with planning discussion set to begin in 2016. Like the Tornado, the replacement may be manufactured by a consortium of European manufacturers. The announcement was made as part of a government draft document on “military aviation strategy” although a decision on whether the fighter would be manned or unmanned was not noted. It is possible that a version of both will be designed. The document also mentions the idea of extending the life of the German Tornado fleet until the mid-2030s, a decade longer than their planned retirement.

• The purchase of Javelin missiles and command launch units by Lithuania has been cleared by the US State Department in a deal worth $55 million. The acquisition includes 220 anti-tank missiles, 74 launch command units, 10 fly-to-buy missiles, and aims to help modernize the capabilities of the Lithuanian Army to participate in future NATO operations. Recent Russian military action in Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 has resulted in neighboring countries increasing their defensive capabilities against any future Russian aggression.

Asia Pacific

• The US State Department has approved the sale of three CH-47F Chinook helicopters to Australia. The $180 million foreign military sale includes six Aircraft Turbine Engines and three Common Missile Warning Systems, as well as three Infrared Signature Suppression Systems and logistical support. Australia has ordered seven of the latest CH47F model to replace the existing CH-47Ds currently in service with the Royal Australian Air Force. Delivery is expected to be completed by 2017.

• Malaysia may consider purchasing Pakistan’s JF-17 aircraft as part of its current fighter replacement program. Malaysian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Dr. Hasrul Sani made the announcement citing the excellent relations both nations currently have in terms of defense cooperation. The sale would also see further increase in the bilateral trade between the two, which currently stands at over $2 billion per annum. Other options currently being considered are the Dassault Rafale, Boeing’s F/A-18 and Lockheed Martin’s F-16V. The interest in the JF-17 comes alongside the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project which will see over $40 billion invested in Pakistan’s infrastructure and economic development. Dr. Sani stated that the whole region would stand to benefit from the CPEC project.

• Saab has made another bid to sell its Gripen fighters to India, after it lost out a tender to Dassault’s Rafale in 2011. With a deal to buy 36 Rafale fighters just signed last month, Saab has claimed that India will require more fighters to maintain an at capacity fleet. The offer comes sweetened with a technology transfer, giving full system and software control and an offer to help develop India’s aerospace industry for the next 100 years. This deal would see Saab help in the development of India’s own indigenous Light Combat Aircraft Tejas and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). The promise of a Saab base in India and full technology transfer is a tempting one as it would mark a big success for President Modi’s “Make in India” program after tough negotiations with France and Dassault over the Rafale purchase.

Today’s Video

• NATO has conducted the maiden flight of NATO’s RQ-4 Block 40 Global Hawk as part of the Alliance Ground Surveillance program, marking an important milestone for them and Northrop Grumman.

MQ-1 vs. MQ-9
(click to view full)

The MQ-1 Predator UAV has become a stable of the Global War on Terror; the program is finishing up a major 5-year fleet expansion. Its successor, the larger MQ-9 Reaper UAV/UCAV (aka. ‘Predator B’), is designed to carry more ordnance while loitering over its coverage area for long periods.

Amidst all the gee-whiz, it’s worth recalling that these systems need the same things any other craft needs: maintenance, spares beyond initial buys, back-end and even in-field support, support for associated systems like sensors, etc. Hence a number of recent contracts, one of which may be related to the recently-publicized ability of Iraqi terrorists to intercept Predator signals…

Predator AAS-52 MTS turret
(click to view full)

Note that DID’s coverage includes contractor support of integral sub-systems like the UAVs’ surveillance and targeting turrets, but not the purchase of new drones or sub-systems. Unless otherwise indicated, all contracts are issued by the Headquarters Aeronautical Systems Center at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH.

Contracts & Events

December 22/15: General Atomics will conduct logistical support for Predator (MQ-1) and Reaper (MQ-9) unmanned aerial systems for the US Air Force. The one year contract is worth $338.2 million. Work to be carried out includes program management, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, contractor field service representative support, inventory control point management, flight operations support, depot repair, and depot field maintenance. The MQ-1s and MQ-9s will also see sensors contractor logistics support provided by Raytheon for the year in a contract worth $49.4 million.

September 24/15: General Atomics – manufacturer of Predator and Reaper UAVs – will open a training facility for international customers of its unmanned aircraft, according to a company press release. The new ‘RPA Training Academy’ facility on Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota will ultimately aim to train up to 60 flight crews a year, using a US government-approved training scheme.

Dec 31/09: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems in Poway, CA received a $266.1 million contract for program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contract engineering technical specialists, contractor inventory control point and spares management, depot repair, flight, operations support, reliability/maintenance enhancements, and CAMS/REMIS/CEMS data collection entry for the Predator/Reaper MQ-1 and MQ-9 unmanned aircraft system (UAS) program. At this time, $53.2 million has been obligated (FA8620-05-G-3028).

Dec 31/09: Raytheon Co in McKinney, TX received a $38.1 million contract to provide for CY 2010 contractor logistics support of the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper’s multi-spectral targeting system turrets. At this time, $12.6 million has been committed by the 703rd AESG/SYK at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH (FA8620-06-G-4041).

Sept 30/09: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. of Poway, CA received a $46 million contract for Linux operating systems, technical orders, improved display, and spares for the Predator/Reaper. At this time, the entire amount has been committed by the 703 AESG/SYK at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH (FA8620-05-GD-3028).

May 18/09: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems of Poway, CA receives a $9.8 million firm fixed price contract for Predator receiver terminals, installation, and software updates. At this time, the entire amount has been committed by the 703rd AESG/SYK at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, OH (FA8620-05-G-3028).

Subsequent media reports in December 2009 would reveal that standard-issue Predator UAVs were vulnerable to interception of their surveillance footage, using an inexpensive satellite receiver and low-cost SkyGrabber software. Some reports added that retrofits have been underway to fix this, beginning with deployed UAVs. See Wall St. Journal | Ars Technica | cnet | Defense Tech | John Robb’s Global Guerrillas | Flight International.

March 3/09: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems of San Diego, CA received a $168.4 million firm-fixed-price contract for program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contractor inventory control point and spares management, depot repair, flight operations support, reliability/maintenance enhancements, data collection/entry and numbered periodic depot maintenance for the Predator MQ-1 and MQ-9 Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) program. At this time, the entire amount has been obligated (FA8620-05-G-3028).

Dec 30/08: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems in San Diego, CA received a $42.6 million contract for program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contractor engineering technical specialists, contractor inventory control point and spares management, depot repair, flight operations support, reliability/maintenance enhancements, and CAMS/REMIS/CEMS data collection/entry for the Predator/ Reaper MQ-1 and MQ-9 Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) program. At this time, $42.6 million has been obligated (FA8620-05-G-3028 Delivery Order 0048).

Dec 29/08: Raytheon Co. in McKinney, TX receives $27.3 million to provide CY 2009 Contractor Logistics Support for the MQ-1 and MQ-9’s Multi-Spectral Targeting Systems. At this time, $4.1 million has been committed under this cost plus fixed fee contract by the 703rd Aeronautical Systems Group at Wright-Patterson AFB, OH (FA8620-06-G-4041, #009).

Oct 30/08: General Atomics in San Diego, Calif., received a cost plus fee term contract for $177.1 million for program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contractor engineering technical services, contractor engineering technical specialists (formerly field support representatives), contractor inventory control point (formerly depot supply support) and spares management, depot repair, flight operations support, reliability/maintenance enhancements, CAMs/REMIS/CEMS data collection/entry and numbered Periodic Depot Maintenance (PDM) for the Predator/ Reaper MQ-1 and MQ-9 Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) programs. At this time $163.1 million has been obligated (FA8620-05-G-3028 Delivery Order 003502).

MQ-1 Predator
(click to view full)

June 27/08: Raytheon Co. in McKinney, TX received a firm-fixed-price $11.4 million contract to provide Multi-Sensor System (Predator MTS-A and the Reaper’s Multi-Sensor System-B) support at American and overseas locations. It includes depot OEM(Original Equipment Manufacturer) spares and repairs, depot configuration management, technical manual OEM system source data and software maintenance, depot level contractor Field Services Representative (FSR) support and other functions. At this time $10 million has been committed by the 658th Aeronautical Systems Squadron at Wright-Patterson AFB, OH (FA8620-06-G-4041, DO 0007).

Dec 21/07: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems in San Diego, CA received a contract for $67 million for program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contractor engineering technical specialists (formerly field support representatives), contractor inventory control point (formerly depot supply support) and spares management, depot repair, flight operations support, reliability/maintenance enhancements, CAMS/REMIS/CEMS data collection/entry and numbered Periodic Depot Maintenance for the Predator/ Reaper MQ-1 and MQ-9 Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) program. At this time $50.3 million has been obligated (FA8620-05-G-3028 Delivery order 0035).

MQ-9, armed
(click to view full)

June 22/07: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems in Poway, CA received a $69.4 million contract modification for program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contract engineering technical specialists, contractor inventory control point and spares management, depot repair, flight, operations support, reliability/maintenance enhancements, and CAMS/REMIS/CEMS data collection entry for the Predator/Reaper MQ-1 and MQ-9 unmanned aircraft system (UAS) program. At this time, $53.2 million has been obligated (FA8620-05-G-3028 Delivery Order 001503)

Dec 29/06: General Atomics in San Diego, CA received a $42.7 million cost-plus fixed-fee term contract. This contract delivery order includes all program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contractor engineering technical specialists (formerly field support representatives), contractor inventory control point (formerly depot supply support) and spares management, depot repair, flight operations support, reliability/maintenance enhancements, CAMS/REMIS/CEMS data collection/entry and numbered Periodic Depot Maintenance (PDM) for the Predator MQ-1 and MQ-9 Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) program.

Work will be complete December 2007. At this time $38,099,885 has been obligated (FA8620-05-G-3028 Delivery Order 0015).

Dec 29/06: Raytheon Company in McKinney, TX received an $11.5 million cost-plus fixed-fee contract for Contractor Logistics Support of the Predator A and B Multi-spectral Targeting Systems (MTS). This contract includes program management, repairs and services, depot configuration management, technical manual system source data and software maintenance, engineering technical services, contractor field service representatives support, contractor inventory control point and spares management, depot-level repair, design and engineering reliability/maintenance enhancement, Core Automated Maintenance System/Reliability and Maintainability Information System/Maintenance Management Information System data collection/entry, and obsolescence management.

Work will be complete in December 2007. To date, $8.7 million has been obligated (FA8620-06-G-4041, #0003).

UAV TCS ground control trailer
(click to read about it)

March 15/06: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc. in San Diego, CA received a $30.1 million cost-plus fixed-fee contract modification. This action will provide services necessary to perform Predator organizational maintenance of aircraft, Ground Control Stations, and Predator Primary Satellite Links. This work will be complete March 2007. The Air Combat Command Contracting Squadron at Langley Air Force Base, VA issued the contract (FA4890-05-C-0001/P00016).

March 13/06: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. in San Diego, CA received a $27.1 million cost-plus fixed-fee contract to provide total support to the for the MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Predator B unmanned aircraft system programs. Specifically, this contract includes all program management, urgent repairs and services, logistics support, configuration management, technical manual and software maintenance, contractor inventory control point (formerly depot supply support) and spares management, depot repair, flight operations support, engineering technical specialists (formerly field support representatives), reliability/ maintenance enhancements, CAMS/REMIS/CEMS data collection/entry, and numbered periodic depot maintenance.

Solicitations began September 2005, negotiations were complete March 2006, and work will be complete December 2006 (FA8620-05-G-3028, delivery order #0011).

Feb 10/05: General Atomics-Aeronautical Systems in San Diego, CA received an $8.3 million cost-plus fixed-fee contract to provide services necessary to perform Predator Organizational Maintenance for: aircraft, Ground Control Stations, and Predator Primary Satellite Links. The contractors also shall be responsible for Launch and Recovery Elements including contract aircrew for forward deployed operations. The contractor will be responsible for program management and providing support, following the basic requirements of AFI 21-101.

The principal place of performance is Indian Springs Air Force Auziliary Field, NV as well as various worldwide locations. Other key locations of performance are General Atomics-Aeronautical San Diego, CA, and the Indian Springs Auxiallary Airfield, NV. Total funds have been obligated. Solicitation began June 2004, negotiations were completed January 2005, and work will be complete by March 2006. The Air Combat Command Contracting Squadron at Langley Air Force Base, VA issued the contract (FA4890-05-C-0001).

Land-based SM-3 concept
(click to view full)

SM-3 Standard missiles have been the backbone of the US Navy’s ballistic missile defense plans for many years now, and are beginning to see service in the navies of allies like Japan. Their test successes and long range against aerial threats have spawned a land-based version, which end up being even more important to the USA’s allies.

In July 2008 the US Missile Defense Agency began considering a land-based variant of the SM-3, largely due to specific requests from Israel. Israel currently fields the medium range Arrow-2 land-based ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) system, and eventually elected to pursue the Arrow-3 instead of SM-3s. Once the prospect had been raised, however, the US government decided that basing SM-3 missiles on land was a really good idea. The European Phased Adaptive Approach to missile defense is being built around this concept, and other regions could see similar deployments.

EPAA & The SM-3 Option Aegis Ashore
(click to view full)

The European Phased Adaptive Approach aims to use a combination of naval and land-based missile defense systems, which hope to share a common architecture and missile set. The core physical component is a “deckhouse” enclosure, containing the command and control center and a BMD-enhanced SPY-1(D) radar that’s similar to those aboard US Navy destroyers and cruisers. The software will be taken from the Aegis combat system on US Navy ships, beginning with version 5.0.1 and upgrading over time. A connected vertical launching system building will contain 24 SM-3 missiles, which will become more advanced as newer variants are fielded.

The USA is building 3 Aegis Ashore sites: one test site in Barking Sands, Hawaii, USA, and sites in Deveselu Air Base, Romania and Redzikowo, Poland. The GAO estimates that building these sites and bringing them to operational status will cost the USA about $2.3 billion. Our own tracking includes R&D into land-based SM-3 options, and tracks obviously related categories in MDA’s shifting budget lines.

The European Phased Adaptive Approach

The European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA) currently envisions 4 phases:

EPAA Phase 1, 2011-2015

In 2011, the US Navy expected to have naval SM-3 Block 1A missiles and ships fully in place, on more BMD-capable ships than the 2 Atlantic Fleet destroyers available in 2009, to pair with land-based AN/TPY-2 radars that are also used in the THAAD system. Another 4 destroyers are being forward-deployed to Rota, Spain in FY 2014-2015. Unfortunately, naval SM-3 Block 1 missiles cannot cover the Czech Republic at all, and can offer only limited coverage for Poland.

The Obama administration bowed to Russian pressure and picked the THAAD system’s AN/TPY-2 radar as the system’s ground accompaniment, to limit the distance they could see into Russian airspace. The Russians simply saw weakness, and kept up the pressure, but couldn’t make any more headway. Turkey agreed to host the AN/TPY-2 radar near Diyarbakir in SE Turkey, though they added conditions that the data must not be shared with Israel.

This will be the only EPAA option until 2015, which is beyond the Obama administration’s current term of office. During that interim period, THAAD continues to receive upgrades. At sea, AEGIS BMD system 4.x is being rolled out beyond USS Lake Erie [CG 70], offering some capability improvements on board ship, and laying an open architecture foundation for future upgrades.

In parallel, NATO has fielded an initial version Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD) command and control architecture. They declared an “interim” BMD capability in May 2012, after a successful multinational test.

ALTBMD will also have European components to draw upon, including the national early-warning system under development by France. In August 2012, Poland announced that it was pursuing its own national BMD system, which may mirror many of France’s components. France (11 systems) and Italy (6 systems) can also contribute with their land-based SAMP/T Mamba and its Aster-30 missile, which is designed to address threats in the SRBM (<1,000 km) class. On the naval front, the Netherlands is upgrading its 4 top-tier air defense frigates with ballistic missile tracking capability, and its ships are compatible with SM-3 missiles if they decide to purchase some. Elsewhere, Aster-30s are already found on advanced air defense destroyers: the Franco-Italian Horizon Class, and Britain's Type 45 Daring Class. The naval system hasn't been tested against ballistic missiles yet, but the systems could all be upgraded to do so. EPAA Phase 2, 2015-2018 In Parallel:
SAMP/T launch
(click to view full)

If progress continues per plan, 2015 would see advances on 2 fronts.

One front involves improved SM-3 Block 1B missiles, which will expand the range of coverage for American ships. Serious orders for the Block 1B missile began in 2011, but technical issues have delayed full production. That delay means that US Navy ships based in Europe will be competing with other priorities in Asia and around the USA, as they seek to host the new missiles. A slower phase-in that extends to 2018 now looks most likely.

The other element was to be a land-based “Aegis Ashore” site at Deveselu Air Base, Romania, hosting SM-3 missiles instead of Boeing’s longer-range, fixed-location GMD system. Aegis Ashore designs appear to have shifted from an easily-deployable configuration, toward high-investment fixed sites that are similar to the GMD program they replaced. The Romanian deployment would use SM-3 Block 1B missiles from an emplaced Mk.41 VLS launcher, and be controlled by a SPY-1D radar and AEGIS BMD 5.0.1 combat system. An interim setup was formally commissioned in October 2014.

If successfully deployed, this is a defense against short and medium range missiles (SRBMs & MRBMs), with some capability against intermediate range missiles in the 1,850-3,500 mile class (IRBMs). On the other hand, the location of these defenses still leaves central Europe mostly unprotected.

During Phase 2, NATO’s Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence (ALTBMD) command and control network will be operational at an initial level. France, Italy, and possibly Poland will have armed land-based BMD systems of their own deployed, and it’s likely that ALTBMD compatible BMD-capable ships will be fielded. The Netherlands is already preparing its vessels for missile tracking and SM-3 hosting, and the Aster-30/ PAAMS combination is fielded on British, French, and Italian ships.

EPAA Phase 3, 2018- SM-3: EPAA phases
(click to view full)

Around 2018, America expects to deploy the longer-range, 21″ diameter SM-3 Block II missile, on ships and (if deployments have been accepted) on shore. The US MDA would add Redzikowo, Poland to its list of land-based sites, defending Northern Europe with SM-3 Block 1B & Block IIA missiles, controlled by an AEGIS BMD 5.1 combat system.

This system would be intended to kill SRBM, MRBM, and IRBM threats, with some capabilities against full intercontinental range missiles (ICBMs). Gen. Cartwright has stated that just 3 SM-3 Block II locations would be able to cover all of Europe, but that missile is an earlier-stage R&D effort, with all the expected implications for dates and certainty of capabilities.

EPAA Phase 4, 2020+

Effectively cancelled.

The USA was going deploy a new Next-Generation Aegis Missile (SM-3 Block IIB) design, to improve performance and begin to field a credible anti-ICBM capability. Technical issues became a serious problem, once experts concluded that the initial sites picked for EPAA aren’t all that helpful for defending the USA. A liquid-fuel booster could be used to boost interceptor speeds, but that isn’t safe to use on ships. Even though the best place to defend the USA against an ICBM launched from Iran is from the middle of the North Sea. Now throw in a planned development schedule defined by a wild-guess political promise, rather than solid information. The whole thing was a mess, and in March 2013, it was “restructured” into into an R&D program by the Pentagon.

Aegis Ashore AN/TPY-2
(click to view full)

Making these things happen requires a number of additional steps. AN/TPY-2 radars will provide initial services during Phase 1, and will continue to play a supplemental role thereafter in both EPAA and NATO’s ALTBMD.

Beyond Phase 1, the USA has shifted to a larger and more permanent basing structure, which removes some of the benefits of switching away from GMD. The US Missile Defense Agency is building an “Aegis Ashore” test complex near Moorestown, NJ, and another at its missile defense testing center at Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. The Hawaiian complex is hosting a land-based Mark 41 launcher, a 4-story building with a SPY-1 radar, and three 125-foot tall test towers.

Poland is being considered for Aegis Ashore deployment in 2018, but the country is beginning to diversify its options. The September 2011 agreement with the USA is still in force, but Poland is determined to have its own missile defense infrastructure, and may choose to place their bets on a parallel NATO/ European system. Their other option would likely involve American PATRIOT and/or THAAD systems.

Beyond Europe

Aegis Ashore may spread beyond Europe. In the Pacific, Japan is already deploying SM-3s at sea, and may find land-based counterparts useful. Its neighbor South Korea shares Japan’s worries about North Korea’s evil and semi-stable regime; the ROK intends to load shorter range SM-6 missiles on its AEGIS destroyers, is buying and deploying Patriot PAC-2 GEM+ missiles, and has contracted with Israel for “Green Pine” air and missile defense radars. Its cruiser-size KDX-III AEGIS destroyers could be modified for a ballistic missile defense role, but land-based SM-3s linked to air and naval systems offer an option that doesn’t require naval upgrades.

The other country that has been linked to land-based SM-3s had a more complicated set of choices, and possible rationales. See Appendix A’s coverage of Israeli deliberations, which ended with a decision to deploy their own Arrow technology instead.

The Missiles SM-3 seeker: target!
(click to view full)

With a maximum range of about 300 miles/ 500 km, the Standard Missile 3 Block I (SM-3) has just 1/5th to 1/6th the reported reach of GMD’s Ground Based Interceptors, but a longer reach than current mobile land options like THAAD. SM-3 has 4 stages. The booster motor and initial stage launch the missile, and take it out of the atmosphere. Once it goes “exo-atmospheric,” the 3rd stage is used to boost the missile higher, and also corrects its course by referencing GPS/ INS locations. The final stage is the LEAP kill vehicle, which uses infrared sensors to pick out the target, then guides itself in to ram it. That target is expected to be an enemy ballistic missile, but America’s shoot-down of its own ailing satellite in 2008 showed that the same technology can be used against any low earth orbit object.

The introduction of Raytheon’s SM-3 Block II variant will widen the missile’s diameter from 13.5″ to 21″, greatly extending its range and speed. That means better performance against longer range missiles that move faster, and offer different trajectories. Block II weapons will add the ability to handle longer-range, higher-flying IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles, usually 3,000-5,000 km range), and even offer some hope against global-strike threats like ICBM (Inter Continental Ballistic Missile) warheads. SM-3 Block IIA is currently expected to debut around 2015, but testing and other requirements mean it won’t be part of EPAA until 2018 or later.

Contracts & Key Events Europe scenario

Because of the intertwined nature of the EPAA system, many contracts will be covered elsewhere. The AN/TPY-2 radar has its own article, as does the THAAD theater air defense system the TPY-2s were originally developed for. Standard Missile family contracts also have their own FOCUS article, as does the ubiquitous Mk.41 vertical launching system that will be part of the Aegis Ashore complex.

Unless a contract of these types specifically notes dedicated assets for EPAA/Aegis Ashore, or is directly germane to key program technologies, they will not be covered here.

FY 2015 – 2016

NSF Devesulu opens.

December 22/15: Raytheon has been awarded a $2.35 billion contract to deliver 52 SM-3 Block IB missiles. The contract finalizes a preliminary one for 44 missiles valued at $541 million. The addition of 8 further missiles comes as the US military is increasing its stocks of SM-3s in the wake of increased missile threats, and orders by foreign allies of its weapons systems.

December 10/15: Raytheon has been awarded a not-to-exceed $543,337,650 undefinitized contract action modification to a previously awarded contract to manufacture, assemble, test, and deliver 17 Standard Missile-3 Block IIA missiles. The deal, initially set at $87 million, has now been extended to $543.3 million. The news comes after the US Navy and Missile Defense Agency (MDA) announced the second successful flight test on Tuesday. The SM-3 is the only ballistic missile killer to have the capability to be launched from both land and sea, and is being jointly funded and developed by US Navy and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Forces. Future development of the program will see the interceptor be tested for the European missile defense system and hopeful deployment in Poland by 2018.

Oct 10/14: Romania. NATO formally inaugurates Naval Support Facility Devesulu, the new Aegis Ashore facility in Romania. Capt. William Garren becomes the site’s 1st commander, and construction continues on site. It’s scheduled to become fully operational in 2015. Stars and Stripes, “Navy to commission missile defense base in Romania” | Romnaia TV, “Vin americanii! SUA preia vineri baza de la Deveselu” [picture is wrong] | Iran’s PressTV, “US will commission missile base in Europe amid tensions with Russia” | Russia Today, “US commissions ‘crucial’ NATO missile shield facility in Romania”.

NSF Devesulu, RO opens

FY 2014

GAO & CRS reports cite software issues, spectrum frequency conflict in Poland, question operating cost estimates and cost-sharing; Initial Turkish deployment was very ragged; 1st launch from AA facility; DDGs deploying; SM-3 Block IIA passes CDR. NATO BMD concept
click for video

June 2/14: DDG Deployment. USS Ross [DDG-71, uses BMD 3.6.1] steams out of Norfolk to its new base in Rota, Spain, where it will join USS Donald Cook [DDG-71, uses BMD 4.0.2] as part of EPAA efforts. Sources: WVEC Norfolk, “Photos: 2nd Navy destroyer leaves Norfolk for Spain”.

May 22/14: SAMP/T. France and Italy carry out a test of their own at the French DGA’s Biscarosse test range, with SAMP/T Mamba systems from each country firing an Aster-30 missile and destroying a target drone. The larger story is the successful interconnection of their systems, within a broader test campaign that also involved French air force Crotale SHORADS batteries, French Army man-portable Mistral VSHORADS, and a French E-3F AWACS plane, all connected to the French 3D Defense Management Center (CMD3D) and control centers at Lyon and at Mont de Marsan.

France is building a national air defense and anti-missile system, which needs to inter-operate with NATO. Italy is another natural partner for missile defense, as they’re also using Aster-30 missiles on land in SAMP/T Mamba systems, and using them at sea in Franco-Italian Horizon Project frigates. Sources: French DGA, “Vidéo : reussite d’un double tir SAMP/T franco-italien” | defense-aerospace, “Surface-to-Air Campaign at Biscarosse: “Barrois” Squadron from Saint Dizier Fires First Mamba, Demos Interoperability”.

May 20/14: AA CTV-01. The 1st SM-3 launch from an Aegis Ashore facility takes place at the Pacific Missile Range Facility test site in Kauai, Hawaii. It’s a live SM-3 Block IB launch, but not a live intercept, since they’re only using a simulated target. The main goal is ensuring that all systems work when they’re transferred to land. Sources: US MDA, “Standard Missile Completes First Test Launch from Aegis Ashore Test Site” | Lockheed Martin, “Aegis Ashore Achieves Major Test Milestone for Worldwide Ballistic Missile Defense System” | Raytheon, “Aegis Ashore Launches Standard Missile-3 for First Time”.

1st Aegis Ashore launch

April 11/14: GAO Report. The Pentagon has been reluctant to develop a life-cycle cost estimate for BMD in Europe, on the dubious grounds that it isn’t a separate program. that’s why GAO-14-314 concerns itself with EPAA’s costs and implementation issues.

PATRIOT and AN/TPY-2 deployments have already shown weaknesses. The Turkish PATRIOT batteries faced roadblocks involving deployment when they arrived in December 2011. Other issues included training to different NATO engagement procedures, information-sharing uncertainties, soldiers deployed to cold mountaintops in tents that couldn’t handle the conditions, and poor local roads that could be dangerous. Build-out of longer-term infrastructure won’t even begin until mid-2014. The TPY-2 radar deployments to Turkey (2011) and CENTCOM (2013), meanwhile, still can’t share information and work together, because that hasn’t been worked out.

For Aegis Ashore, previous reports (q.v. April 26/13) have mentioned the AN/SPY-1D radar’s conflicts with local civil frequency usage. That’s largely worked out now in Romania, but not in Poland. Indeed, the Poles are about to issue commercial licenses for key radar frequencies, which would complicate things even more. It doesn’t get easier to handle all of this when US Strategic Command, European Command, MDA, and the Navy all claim roles in each deployment.

On the cost side, the US Navy will take over maintenance and operation of both European Aegis Ashore sites in 2018, but they haven’t developed a joint 25-year O&M estimate. There are also gaps concerning other BMD elements. The Army is estimating $61 million to support the Turkish TPY-2 radar, and $1.2 billion over 20 years. This assumes contractor support throughout, but different arrangements might be better and cheaper. A full analysis is expected in FY 2015. THAAD batteries have an estimated O&M cost of $6.5 billion over 20 years, but that $325 million per year involves basing in the USA. Costs for basing in Europe are expected to be higher. How much higher? We don’t know, because the US MDA and US Army can’t agree on how to do the analysis.

April 9/14: Speed up? Vice Adm. James Syring of the US Missile Defense Agency responds to speculation by saying that they could speed up the deployment of Poland’s Aegis Ashore installation in response to Russia’s invasion of Crimea, but:

“We’d need some additional funds in the budget, and we’d need to move up the development of the [SM-3 Block] IIA,”

The first part of the statement is true. Given the likely cost of the SM-3 Block 1B missiles, and known costs for the facility, it will take somewhere between $400 – 500 million to fully pay for an operational site. The second part of Syring’s statement, however, is wishful thinking. Unless development is being slow-walked and funds are the primary bottleneck, extra funds have a very limited effect in moving up a project’s development. The SM-3 Block IIA isn’t the type of project that will get much benefit. Sources: Defense News, “US May Accelerate Deployment of Missile Defense System in Poland”.

April 8/14: CRS Report. The Congressional Research Service updates their backgrounder covering the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system, which includes the EPAA. They confirm DID’s charts regarding these areas, though CRS doesn’t divide general naval BMD from the land-based European implementation.

They do have some pointed questions for Europe, however, proposing a calculation of relative American vs. European total contributions to European missile defense, and asking “Why should European countries not pay a greater share of the cost of the EPAA, since the primary purpose of the EPAA is to defend Europe against theater-range missiles?” That’s a different attitude.

Meanwhile, the FY 2015 budget cuts 132 SM-3 missiles from the FY 2014 budget’s 2015-2018 buys, and it will also change the composition and makeup of the naval BMD fleet via slower upgrades, and the mothballing of 4 BMD cruisers. Congress will want to know what effect that will have on overall capabilities, but asking the military will be pointless.

April 1/14: GAO Report. GAO-14-351 focuses on acquisition goals and reporting for missile defense in general. Most of the key findings for EPAA have already been covered recently, but the program is concerned about flight test delays and cancelations affecting Aegis Ashore, while adding that a 17 month delay in the modernized Aegis system is at a problematic point:

“Discovery of software defects continues to outpace the program’s ability to fix them; fixes may have to be implemented after software is delivered.”

March 25/14: AA Poland. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Training, Moorestown, NJ receives a $93 million contract, exercising options for the core radar and equipment in Poland’s Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System (AAMDS), and providing multi-year procurement funding for Aegis Weapon System (AWS) MK 7 equipment sets.

All funds are committed immediately, using FY 2014 budgets and FY 2013 shipbuilding budgets. Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ (85.5%), Clearwater, FL (13.1%), and Akron, OH (1.4%), and is expected to be complete by September 2021. US NAVSEA in Washington, DC manages the contract (N00024-14-C-5114).

March 21/14: AA Poland. Raytheon IDS in Sudbury, MA receives a $45 million modification for 1 AN/SPY-1D(V) Transmitter Group and select Missile Fire Control System MK 99 equipment, which will become part of the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System in Poland.

Work will be performed in Andover, MA (78.3%); Sudbury, MA (19.3%); Canada (1%); Moorestown, NJ (0.9%); and Norfolk, VA (0.5%), and is expected to be completed by March 2016. All funds are committed immediately, using FY14 funds. US NAVSEA in Washington, DC manages the contract (N00024-13-C-5115).

March 14/14: GAO report. The GAO releases GAO-14-248R, regarding the USA’s EPAA plans for defending Europe from ballistic missiles. The bottom line? There are a lot of moving parts, they’re being developed in parallel, and some of them aren’t moving as fast as others. Which means the system as a whole is going to be a bit behind. The MDA isn’t interested in acknowledging that, but the GAO makes a strong case by citing all the promised capabilities that are being removed from the beginning of each phase.

Phase 1, 2011. A TPY-2 radar is deployed in Turkey, but C2BMC systems still haven’t tested scenarios where they’re managing more than 1 TPY-2 radar, and GAO says that “Key capabilities for Phase 1 will not be fully available until 2015.”

Phase 2, 2015. The biggest issue is C2BMC S8.2 software, which has been delayed until 2017. It was supposed to improve the integration of incoming missile tracks for Phase 2, and provide a Lock-On After Launch firing capability for AEGIS BMD systems. Without it, radars like the TPY-2 will perform below their planned potential, and so will the missiles. Especially since the Romanian site’s Aegis Ashore system will only be an interim version, which will also wait until 2017 before it has all of the initially promised capabilities. On the mobile front, THAAD’s ability to distinguish incoming warheads in debris fields won’t reach desired capability until 2017, either.

Phase 3, 2018. The 2-year delay of full Phase 2 Aegis Ashore capability leads one to wonder if AEGIS BMD 5.1 will really be ready for 2018 deployment. The same might be said of the SM-3 Block 2A missile, even though MDA says it’s on track. Meanwhile, C2BMC is the biggest issue again. S8.4 is meant to let AEGIS BMD systems intercept incoming missiles without using their own radars, thanks to faster integrated tracks, more precise tracking, and resilience in more “complex” conditions. It won’t arrive until 2020 or later, forcing the MDA to deploy an S8.2.x build instead. That lateness will affect THAAD as well as Aegis Ashore, and THAAD’s own upgrades will happen in a timeframe that means any issues found in testing will delay them until after Phase 3 has begun.

Dec 27/13: Aegis multiyear. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Training in Moorestown, NJ receives a multi-year $574.5 million firm-fixed-price contract for Aegis MK 7 equipment sets. All confirmed orders will be used in destroyer production and refits (DDG 117 – 123), but there’s 1 option that can be used for Poland’s Aegis Ashore complex, along with associated engineering services. Lockheed Martin confirms that the core of all sets will be Aegis Baseline 9, which includes missile defense features.

$308.4 million in FY 2013 shipbuilding funds is committed immediately, to enable advance buys in bulk. Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ (85.5%); Clearwater, FL (13.1%); and Akron, OH (1.4%), and is expected to be complete by September 2021. As one would expect, this is a sole source contract under 10 U.SC 2304(c)(1). US NAVSEA in Washington Navy Yard, Washington, DC manages the contract (N00024-14-C-5114). See also Lockheed Martin, Jan 7/14 release.

Oct 31/13: SM-3-IIA. Raytheon and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have completed the SM-3 Block IIA’s Critical Design Review (CDR), and the USA and Japan have agreed on workshare arrangements that allocate development responsibility between each country. SM-3-IIA is the key new piece in EPAA Phase 3, and the successful CDR keeps it on track for flight test in 2015.

Raytheon made the announcement at the 2013 AIAA Multinational Ballistic Missile Defense Conference in Warsaw, Poland. Sources: Raytheon, “New, Larger Standard Missile-3 Moves From Design to Testing” | Raytheon, Oct 31/13 release.

Oct 28/13: AA Romania. American, Romanian and NATO officials break ground on the Aegis Ashore facility at Devsulu AB, based on the September 2011 accord between the United States and Romania.

Romania’s SC Glacial PROD SRL has already done $3.3 million in site-activation work, including temporary offices, container housing units, a warehouse, and a vehicle inspection area. US Navy, “US, Romania begin work on Aegis Ashore missile defense complex”.

FY 2013

SM-3 Block IIB canceled; European multi-system test; GAO Report; MBDA’s Aster-30 SAMP/T and USA’s GBI advance in parallel. 2013 BMD conference
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July 18/13: AA Romania. KBR announces a $134 million Aegis Ashore build-out contract from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Europe District. The 269-acre site on Romania’s Deveselu Air Base will include a 4-story radar deckhouse structure relocated from New Jersey, security fencing, plus facilities and infrastructure including roads, support buildings, communications, security and utilities.

April 26/13: GAO Report. The GAO looks at the Missile Defense Agency’s full array of programs in report #GAO-13-342, “Missile Defense: Opportunity To Refocus On Strengthening Acquisition Management.” With respect to EPAA/ Aegis Ashore, the report reiterates concerns from the GAO’s March 30/12 and April 20/12 reports (q.v.): unstable cost baselines, concurrent testing & development, and questions about the ability to use the SPY-1’s radar frequencies without creating spectrum interference problems for the host nations.

The program office sees its greatest risks as (1) integration testing in Hawaii and New Jersey, (2) potential shipping or transportation delays, and (3) construction delays for the operational and test facilities. The disconnect stems from a fundamental disagreement about the project’s level of risk. With the program citing similarity to sea-based Aegis BMD as a reason for low risk. If the GAO’s concerns re: spectrum issues come true, however, the similarity will drop quickly. An analysis for Romania is due in 2013, but Poland will present its own independent situation. Meanwhile, knowledge gained from flight tests that begin in 2014 can’t be used to guide construction. Under a new plan, even Poland’s 2018 site will be ordering advance construction components in January 2014.

The GAO estimates the cost to develop and build the Polish facility at $746 million, from R&D to operational status. As such, the MDA reported costs of all 3 Aegis Ashore facilities is $2.3 billion. The GAO wonders about the US MDA’s portfolio balance, given R&D needs for multiple missiles, plus full build out of Aegis Ashore and full production of the SM-3 Block IB, plus operation, support, and testing for the iffy GMD system. The GAO recommends Analysis of Alternatives studies as one way to help manage that portfolio.

April 18/13: Poland. US State Department official Frank Rose (Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance) speaks to the Polish National Defense University in Warsaw about Aegis Ashore. Poland is looking to build a national missile defense architecture, so Rose stresses the important of interoperability with NATO’s Active Layered Theater Ballistic Missile Defense (ALTBMD) command-and-control system (q.v. May 21/12). He adds that:

“The Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement between the U.S. and Poland entered into force in September of 2011. This agreement places a land-based interceptor site, similar to Phase 2, in Redzikowo, and includes the SM-3 Block IIA interceptor. This EPAA Phase 3 site is on schedule and on budget for deployment in the 2018 timeframe. The interceptor site here in Poland will be key to the EPAA. Not only will it protect Poland itself, but when combined with the rest of the EPAA assets, Phase 3 will be able to protect all of NATO Europe against ballistic missile threats from the Middle East.”

March 15/13: Following North Korea’s 3rd nuclear test attempt, the new US Secretary of Defense announces that the USA will add 14 more ground-based interceptors at Fort Greely, AK and Vandenberg AFB, CA, boosting the total number from 30 back to the 44 planned by the previous administration. At the same time, they’re re conducting Environmental Impact Studies for a potential additional GBI site in the United States.

They’re paying for this by “restructuring” the SM-3 Block 2B Next Generation Aegis Missile program, whose 2020 deployment date was never realistic (vid. April 20/12 GAO report). It’s effectively canceled.

Japan will continue to collaborate with the USA on the SM-3 Block 2A program, and they’ll get a 2nd AN/TPY-2 radar on their territory. Pentagon AFPS | Full Speech Transcript | Boeing | CS Monitor re: Russian angle.

No EPAA Phase 4

March 6/13: SAMP/T. MBDA’s SAMP/T system is operated by a joint French & Italian crew, and successfully intercepts a 300 km (short range) tactical ballistic missile target. Eurosam describes it as:

“…the first SAMP/T firing test in a NATO environment, close to what would be an operational use… [within] the alliance ALTBMD programme…. DGA sensors did provide the firing units and the command levels long-range detection data on A L16 radio network. DGA MI, in Bruz, acted as a L16 [Link-16] national C2, interfacing in L16 both with NATO BMDOC [in Ramstein, Germany], via L16 JREAP and with SAMP/T.”

The SAMP/T system is now widely deployed in France & Italy, with 15 land-based units equipped, alongside naval use of its Aster-30 missile from the countries’ Horizon Class frigates. We won’t be covering it here beyond this initial milestone, but it will be part of NATO’s missile defenses going forward. France’s DGA [in French] | Eurosam.

Feb 11/13: GAO Report. GAO-13-382R: “Standard Missile-3 Block IIB Analysis of Alternatives” throws cold water on the idea that the SM-3 Block 2B can defend the USA from bases in Poland or Romania. The geometry isn’t very good, and success may require a boost-phase intercept. Those are very tricky, and have limited range, because you have to hit the enemy missile within a very short time/ distance.

Some members of the military think it’s possible, at an initial estimated budget of $130 million extra. The problem is the tradeoffs. Liquid propellants can boost speed, but are unsafe on Navy ships due to the fire risks. On the other hand, the middle of the North Sea offers much better missile intercept geometries. Maybe Block 2B shouldn’t be land-based at all, but then why replace Block 2A in such an expensive way? MDA still needs to set the future missile’s performance requirements and limits. Where should the tradeoffs be made?

This brings us to the GAO’s point about the MDA developing the SM-3 Block IIB under a framework that dispenses with a good chunk of the usual paperwork, including an Analysis of Alternatives. On reflection, this is more than a bureaucratic point driven by “records show that programs doing the paperwork usually fare better.” One of the EPAA’s key underlying assumptions is now in question, and the proposed solution must now be in question as well. Is the best solution for land-based European missile defense still SM-3 Block IIB? What are the tradeoffs vs. using a system like the NRC’s recommended GMD-I from the USA (vid. September 2012 entry), and making Block 2B a ship-deployed missile? Does Block 2B even make sense now? Without good answers regarding capability, options, and maintainability, how does the MDA decide – or pick the right winning combination among the Block 2B competitors? A full AoA could improve those answers, and hence the odds of a smart pick.

Dec 21/12: Radar components. Raytheon IDS in Sudbury, MA receives $19.7 million for firm-fixed-price delivery order for radar components: Stabile Master Oscillator ordnance alteration kits, Radio Frequency Coherent Combiner ordnance alteration kits and associated spares, and material and installation services in support of the modernization effort on Navy ships and Aegis ashore units. This contract includes options which could bring the contract’s cumulative value to $22.9 million.

Work will be conducted in Norfolk, VA (63%); Andover, MA (27%); and Burlington, MA (10%), and is expected to be complete by June 2015. $19.7 million will be obligated at time of award. The Naval Sea Systems Command, Washington, D.C., is the contracting activity (N00024-11-G-5116, #0020).

Dec 21/12: AA Romania. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Sensors in Moorestown, NJ receives a $57.3 million contract modification for an Aegis Weapon System in support of DDG 116 and the purchase of material assemblies to support Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System Host Nation #1, Romania.

Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ (85%), Clearwater, FL (14%), and Akron, OH (1%), and is expected to be complete by January 2017. All contract funds in the amount of $57,336,086 are committed immediately. The Naval Sea Systems Command, Washington DC manages the contract (N00024-09-C-5110).

Dec 20/12: Trainer SDD. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Sensors (MS2), Moorestown, NJ receives a $20.7 million cost-plus-fixed-fee, firm-fixed-price contract for the Aegis Ashore Team Trainer. This trainer will be designed to meet the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System (AAMDS) individual watch station and watch team training, qualification and certification requirements. This contract will also fund information assurance requirements for the trainer, an information assurance training course, an instructor operator training course, and travel associated with the trainer’s development.

$4.7 million are committed immediately. Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ and is expected to be complete in October 2014. This contract was not competitively procured, pursuant to FAR 6.302-1 by the US Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division in Orlando, FL (N61340-13-C-0007).

Dec 10/12: AA Romania. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Sensors (MS2) in Moorestown, NJ receives a $45.9 million a contract modification for Aegis Ashore Engineering Agent engineering support and skid integration for “host nation” (which would be Romania) though “this is not a Foreign Military Sales [FMS] acquisition.” If the US military is buying it, it isn’t an FMS, even if they’re preparing to base it at a foreign location. This award raises the total contract’s value to date from $209.9 million to $255.8 million.

Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ through Dec 31/15, and $7.8 million FY 2013 Research, Development, Test and Evaluation funds will get things going. The US Missile Defense Agency in Dahlgren, VA manages this contract (HQ0276-10-C-0003, PO 0044).

Nov 5/12: Networking. Boeing in Huntington Beach, CA receives a $16.7 million firm-fixed-price and time-and-material contract for gigabit ethernet data multiplex systems. They’ll be used in the DDG modernization program, new ship construction, and Aegis Ashore Systems. This contract includes options which could bring its cumulative value to $30 million.

Work will be performed in Camarillo, CA (57%), Smithfield, PA (33%), and Huntington Beach, CA (10%), and is expected to be complete by May 2015. $475,975 will expire by the end of the current fiscal year, on Sept 30/12. This contract was procured on a limited competition basis via the FBO.gov and Navy Electronic Commerce Online websites, with 2 proposals solicited and 2 offers received. The Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division, Dahlgren, VA manages this contract (N00178-13-C-2000).

Oct 2/12: C2 Integration. ALTBMD. NATO’s NCI announces that “Ensemble Test 2” has been successful, using NATO’s Combined Federated Battle Lab Network (CFBLNet) as a test bench. Participants included 12 laboratories from 5 Nations across 2 continents, and the systems included:

• An Italian AN/TPS-77 transportable long range radar, built by Lockheed Martin
  
• French and Italian land-based SAMP/T systems, using MBDA’s Aster-30 missile
  
• Italy’s Horizon Class high-end air defense frigate, which uses the PAAMS combat system and Aster-30 missile
  
• US, Dutch and German PATRIOT missile defence systems
  
• A Dutch ADCF (De Zeven Provincien Class) high-end air defense frigate
  
• A German SAM Operations Centre from Germany,
  
• An American Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence System
  
• The USA’s C2BMC (Command and Control, Battle Management, and Communications) system
  
• The AN/TPY-2 radar that accompanies THAASD, and is part of EPAA
  
• The USA’s huge Shared Early Warning System (SEW) radars
  
• NATO’s Air Command and Control System (ACCS), the Air Command and Control Information Services (AirC2IS), CRC System Interface (CSI), and Interim Command and Control (ICC) system.

Firing missiles is the easy part. Having different command and control systems work together, which is required for any sort of coordinated defense, is difficult. Ensemble Test 3 is scheduled for May-June 2013. NATO NCIA.

FY 2012

NATO declares interim defensive capability; EPAA won’t really defend USA; SM-3 Block IIs may not meet EPAA schedule; Costs keep rising; Poland independent, but not out. Operational
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Sept 25/12: AA Romania. Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems in Sudbury, MA a $43.6 million contract modification “for the production and integration of an Aegis Weapon System (AWS) and Missile Fire Control System in support of DDG 116, and an AWS in support of Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System Host Nation #1” (HN-1, i.e. Romania). Raytheon makes the AN/SPY-1 radar transmitters and MK99 FCS illuminators.

Work will be performed in Andover, MA (80%), Sudbury, MA (15%), and Portsmouth, RI (5%), and is expected to be complete by September 2017. US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington DC manages the contract (N00024-09-C-5111).

Sept 14/12: AA Romania. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems & Sensors in Moorestown, NJ receives an $18.5 million contract modification for the production and integration of an Aegis weapon system in support of DDG 116, and the purchase of material assemblies to support Aegis ashore missile defense system Host Nation 1 (Romania).

Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ (85%); Clearwater, FL (14%); and Akron, OH (1%); and is expected to complete by January 2017. US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington DC manages the contract (N00024-09-C-5110).

September 2012: NRC report. The US National Research Council publishes “Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives.” The report staff have deeply impressive backgrounds related to missile defense, and their main conclusion is that very fundamental reasons of geography and physics make boost-phase defense systems a waste of time.

This includes AEGIS BMD systems. The report explains very clearly that the window for stopping a warhead before it has enough energy to hit “defended” areas makes it difficult to impossible to position a ship in a place that allows even future SM-3 Block II missiles to hit their target.

It also states that EPAA Phase IV is not likely to be an effective way to defend the United States, and recommends that the USA make changes to its own GMD system and radar set. They’re not advocating the dismantling of EPAA, just saying that the USA should have a system in which EPAA is about Europe’s defense, and the USA has a system that doesn’t depend on it.

Aug 30/12: AA Kauai. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Sensors in Moorestown, NJ gets an $8.3 million contract ceiling increase, to provide Aegis Ashore Engineering Agent (AAEA) long-lead-time materials for the complex being built at the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF) in Hawaii. This brings the total contract value from $200.1 to $209.3 million.

Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ through April 30/13, and $5 million in FY 2012 Research, Development, Test and Evaluation funds will be used as initial funding. The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) in Dahlgren, VA manages the contract (HQ0276-10-C-0003, PO 0038).

Aug 10/12: CRS Report. The US Congressional Research Service issues its latest update of “Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress” [PDF]. Key issues highlighted or examined by Mr. O’Rourke include the cost of forward-deploying 4 destroyers to Spain, the FY 2013 budget’s proposal to slow the 2013-2020 ramp-up rate for BMD ships, the potential for European contributions to naval BMD, the inability to simulate China’s DF-21 ship-killing ballistic missile, SM-3 Block IIB risks, and concurrency and technical risk in the AEGIS BMD program generally.

With respect to the Spanish deployment (vid. Feb 16/12 entry), Rota can accommodate all of the new personnel, but infrastructure upgrades will be required. In total, the Navy estimated that it would incur approximately $166 million in up-front military construction, personnel, and maintenance costs; a small annual increase in operations and maintenance; and personnel costs of approximately $179 million – though really, you have to pay them wherever they are.

Aug 6/12: Poland fixing its “mistake”. Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski states that Poland is prepared to create its own anti-aircraft and missile defense system as part of a NATO shield, at a cost of $3-6 billion. With respect to the USA’s defensive plan, which Poland hasn’t rejected yet:

“Our mistake was that by accepting the American offer of a shield we failed to take into account the political risk associated with a change of president. We paid a high political price. We do not want to make the same mistake again.”

The missile and air defense system proposed by the Polish president would target all short and some medium range missiles, just like the initial 2 stages of the EPAA. The system would be part of NATO’s broader air defense systems, as well as the emerging NATO ALTBMD Missile Defense shield. Germany and France are specifically mentioned as potential partners, and MBDA’s naval PAAMS system and Aster-30 missiles have already been converted to a land equivalent of their own. Their SAMP/T is the logical competitor if Poland wants to buy a non-American system. Its weakness is that it wouldn’t be able to grow into a counter against IRBM or ICBM missiles, but that could make it a very good complement to an American system that did. Relations with Israel are close, but David’s Sling is a joint development with Raytheon, and past American behavior has been to use its weapon export rules against potential competitors. Read “Alone, If Necessary: The Shield of Poland” for full coverage of Poland’s WISLA and NAREW air defense competitions.

June 27/12: FTM-18 test. USS Lake Erie [CG-70] with its AEGIS BMD 4.0.1 system successfully launches an SM-3 block IB missile to hit a separating ballistic missile target. This is the same configuration that will be used for the land-based Phase 2 of the USA’s European missile defense plan, and represents an important success for the SM-3 block IB after the FTM-16 failure. This firing makes the AEGIS & SM-3 combination 23/28 in intercept tests so far (82.1%), vs. 31/40 (77.5%) for all other missile defense system intercept tests. US MDA | Lockheed Martin | Raytheon.

June 7/12: AA Romania. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Sensors (MS2) in Moorestown, NJ gets a contract ceiling increase of $9.8 million, increasing the total contract value to $197.4 million from $187.6 million. Under this modification, they’ll provide Aegis Ashore Engineering Agent Phase 2B support for the Host Nation 1 (Romania) skids and skids accessories.

Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ, and Akron, OH through Oct 31/13. $6.9 million in FY 2012 Research, Development, Test and Evaluation funds will be used as incremental funding. The US Missile Defense Agency in Dahlgren, VA manages this contract (HQ0276-10-C-0003, PO 0032).

June 4/12: Aegis Ashore. URS Group, Inc. in San Antonio, TX wins a $129.5 million firm-fixed-price task order to build the Aegis Ashore test complexes in Moorestown, NJ and the Pacific Missile Range Facility at Barking Sands, Kauai, HI.

In Moorestown, they’ll build a radar deckhouse and support building, and do related work to test the government-furnished, government-installed MK41 missile launchers. The Pacific Missile Range facility involves full site construction of a radar deckhouse, support building, launch pad, electrical power, potable water, sewer connection, synthetic natural gas system, and communications systems, in addition to testing their success in integrating government-furnished, government-installed MK41 missile launchers. The task order also contains 1 unexercised option, which, if exercised, would increase cumulative task order value to $130 million.

Work will be performed in Kauai, HI (72%), and Moorestown, NJ (28%), and is expected to be complete by November 2013. Three proposals were received for this task order by the Naval Facilities Engineering Command in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (N62742-09-D-1174, HC02). See also Aug 24/10 entry.

May 21/12: NATO ALTBMD. NATO leaders declared that the Alliance now has an interim ballistic missile defence capability, via a basic ALTBMD command and control system capability which has been tested and installed at Headquarters Allied Air Command in Ramstein, Germany.

At present, ALTBMD is just a C2 network. NATO members need to provide sensors and interceptors to connect to the system. Full Operational Capability isn’t expected until the end of the current decade, or the early 2020s. NATO.

ALTBMD interim capability

April 20/12: GAO report. The US GAO releases report #GAO-12-486, “Opportunity Exists to Strengthen Acquisitions by Reducing Concurrency.” The implications for missile defense belie the bland title:

“To meet the presidential 2002 direction to initially rapidly field and update missile defense capabilities as well as the 2009 announcement to deploy missile defenses in Europe, MDA has undertaken and continues to undertake highly concurrent acquisitions. Concurrency is broadly defined as the overlap between technology development and product development or between product development and production. While some concurrency is understandable, committing to product development before requirements are understood and technologies mature or committing to production and fielding before development is complete is a high-risk strategy that often results in performance shortfalls, unexpected cost increases, schedule delays, and test problems. It can also create pressure to keep producing to avoid work stoppages… During 2011, the Ground-based Midcourse Defense, the Aegis Standard Missile 3 Block IB, and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense experienced significant ill effects from concurrency.

…Aegis Ashore began product development and set the acquisition baseline before completing the [Preliminary Design Review]. This sequencing increased technical risks and the possibility of cost growth… The program has initiated procurement of components for the installation and plans to start fabricating two enclosures called deckhouses – one for operational use at the Romanian Aegis Ashore installation and one for testing at the Pacific Missile Range Facility – in fiscal year 2012, but does not plan to conduct the first intercept test… until fiscal year 2014. Further, the program plans to build the operational deckhouse first, meaning any design modification identified through system testing… will need to be made on an existing deckhouse and equipment. As we have previously reported, such modifications on an existing fabrication may be costly.”

March 30/12: GAO Report. The US GAO tables its “Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs” for 2012. For Aegis Ashore, RDT&E costs have increased from $835.1 million in April 2010 to $1,418.6 million as of October 2011. The reconstitutable deckhouse design for the sites had not been included in its baseline, and the addition of hardware for a 3rd site in Poland also had to be paid for.

GAO sees concurrency risks from the program’s decision to begin system development before the preliminary design review, and from its plan to buy operational components before testing is done. the Navy defends their practice by saying that all of these systems are in advanced testing or deployed on Navy ships already. The program’s last milestone was a Critical Design Review in December 2011, and flight tests aren’t expected to begin before Q2 2014. The 1st “deckhouse” with radar, missiles, etc, is expected to be ready in December 2015, and the 2nd by December 2018. GAO:

“The SPY-1 radar requires modifications for its use on land and other changes may be necessary due to host nation radar frequency issues… In addition, the maturity of SM-3 Block IB may be overstated because some of its component technologies have not been flight tested or have experienced failures in testing. The multimission signal processor also faces development challenges, and the Defense Contract Management Agency has identified its schedule as high risk. We have previously reported that a significant percentage of its software still needs to be integrated.”

March 30/12: SAR. The Pentagon’s Selected Acquisitions Report ending Dec 31/11 includes elements of EPAA:

“Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) – Program costs decreased $3,596.4 million (-3.1%) from $122,362.6 million to $118,766.2 million, due primarily to a reduction in the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile production rate (-$1,247.2 million), the elimination of seven AN/TPY-2 radars (from 18 to 11) (-$1,237.2 million), and the placement of the Sea Based X-band (SBX) radar in limited test and contingency operation status (-$666.3 million). There were additional decreases for the reduction of three THAAD batteries (from 9 to 6) (-$540.8 million), reductions in Special Programs funding (-$408.2 million), a reduction of Aegis Standard Missile-3 Block IB missiles in FY 2013 (-$298.1 million), cancellation of the Airborne Infrared Program (-$239.3 million), and reductions in the Directed Energy Program (-$194.2 million). These decreases were partially offset by the application of revised escalation indices (+$684.8 million), increases to the Israeli Cooperative Program for FY 2011-2012 (+$217.8 million), increased construction estimates for Romania and Poland Aegis Ashore sites (+$213.0 million) [emphasis DID’s], and increases for Iron Dome in FY 2011 (+$205.0 million).”

Program costs

March 29/12: AA Romania. BAE U.S. Combat Systems in Minneapolis, MN receives a $23 million contract modification for MK 41 Vertical Launching System mechanical modules and related equipment and services for DDG 116 and Aegis Ashore, Host Nation One (Romania). Contract modification efforts includes requirements to procure MK41 VLS mechanical systems, production of support material, interim support parts, and equipment in support of DDG51-class new construction, and Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Systems requirements.

Work will be performed in Aberdeen, SD (43%); Farmingdale, NY (19%); Aiken, SC (15%); Fort Totten, ND (10%); York, PA (7%); Minneapolis, MN (5%); and Louisville, KY (1%). Work is expected to complete by September 2015. US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC manages the contract (N00024-11-C-5301).

March 28/12: Beyond Europe? Hurriyet Daily News reports that EPAA could soon have other regional counterparts:

“The US seeks to expand its missile systems to Asia and the Middle East by building regional shields against ballistic missiles, similar to the NATO shield already in Europe. A senior Pentagon official says the Obama administration will hold talks with South Korea, Japan, Australia and Gulf Cooperation Council countries.”

Feb 23/12: AA Romania. Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems in Sudbury, MA receives a $106.5 million modification to previously awarded contract for the production of an AN/SPY-1D-V radar transmitter group for Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System Host Nation 1 (Romania), as well as 2 AN/SPY-1D-Vs and a MK 99 Mod 14 targeting illuminator to equip the future DDG 116 destroyer.

Work will be performed in Andover, MA (80%); Sudbury, MA (15%); and Portsmouth, RI (5%), and is expected to be complete by September 2017. US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC manages the contracts (N00024-09-C-5111).

Feb 18/12: Turkey(s). During meetings with NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu states the TPY-2 radar based at Diyarbakir (vid. Sept 3/11) must not have any of its data sets shared beyond NATO, with a specific reference to Israel. The radar is positioned in a way that makes it easy to see into Iran, for early detection of ballistic missile launches. Voice of America | UPI.

Feb 16/12: Phase 2 ships. The US Navy announces the 4 Arleigh Burke Class guided-missile destroyers which will be forward deployed to Rota, Spain in FY 2014 and 2015. See also DoD Buzz.

“The four include three from Norfolk, Va; USS Ross, USS Donald Cook, and USS Porter, and one from Mayport, Fla., USS Carney. The ships are in support of President Obama’s European Phased Adaptive Approach to enhance the security of the European region… Ross and Donald Cook will arrive in fiscal 2014 and Carney and Porter in fiscal 2015.”

Nov 1/11: Radars. The US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) awards Raytheon IDS of Woburn, MA a maximum $307.6 million indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity (IDIQ) contract. Under this new contract, Raytheon will maintain software required to operate “the X-band family of radars,” and perform and Ballistic Missile Defense System test planning, execution and analysis. Discussions with Raytheon personnel confirmed that the funding applies to the XBR radar on the SBX naval platform, as well as their AN/TPY-2 radars (THAAD, EPAA, deployed in Israel & Japan), and a “Ground Based Radar Prototype” that they’re working on as a technology demonstrator.

Work will be performed in Woburn, MA from Nov 1/11 through Oct 31/13, and the MDA’s FY 2012 research, development, test and evaluation funds will be used to fund initial orders. The MDA at Redstone Arsenal, AL manages the contract (HQ0147-12-D-0005).

FY 2010 – 2011

Europe grapples with BMD; Czechs out, Turkey in; Aegis Ashore shifts the plan and the costs; Progress report. (click to view full)

Sept 15/11: Progress report. The White House offers an update on progress made so far on its European missile defense plans. By Phase:

Phase 1: “In March of this year the USS Monterey [CG-61] was the first in a sustained rotation of ships to deploy to the Mediterranean Sea in support of EPAA. Phase One also calls for deploying a land-based early warning radar, which Turkey recently agreed to host as part of the NATO missile defense plan.”

Phase 2: “This week, on September 13, the United States and Romania signed the U.S.-Romanian Ballistic Missile Defense Agreement. Once ratified, it will allow the United States to build, maintain, and operate the land-based BMD site [and SM-3 deployment] in Romania.”

Phase 3: “Poland agreed to host the [SM-3] interceptor site in October 2009, and today, with the Polish ratification process complete, this agreement has entered into force.”

Russia: “As an initial step, NATO and Russia completed a joint ballistic missile threat assessment and agreed that the [NATO-Russia Council] would resume theater missile defense cooperation. The United States and Russia also continue to discuss missile defense cooperation through a number of high-level working groups at the State and Defense Departments.”

Sept 9/11: Aegis Ashore. The US Missile Defense Agency in Dahlgren, VA awards a $115.5 million sole source cost-plus-award-fee/ cost-plus-fixed-fee contract modification to Lockheed Martin MS2 in Moorestown, NJ, for continued Aegis Ashore Combat System adaptation efforts, site planning, transportation planning, technology initiatives and studies. This award of contract line item number (CLIN) 0001, and increase in the amounts for CLINs 0011 (material) and 0012 (travel), increases the total contract value to date from $61.2 million to $176.7 million.

Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ, through Sept 30/12. FY 2011 research, development, test and evaluation funds will be used to incrementally fund this effort (HQ0276-10-C-0003, PO 0019).

Sept 2/11: Turkey in. Turkey has agreed to emplace an AN/TPY-2 early warning radar, facing Iran and linked to US Navy systems via Cooperative Engagement Capability. Turkish reports place it near Diyarbakir in SE Turkey, which also hosts Patriot missile batteries. Col. David Lapan tells Stars & Stripes that the agreement has some further required approvals to clear, but “The hope is to have it deployed by the end of this year.” Zaman Dis Haberler [in Turkish] | Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance | Stars & Stripes | Russia’s RIA Novosti.

Turkey

Aug 23/11: Phase 3. Raytheon Missile Systems Co. in Tucson, AZ receives a $9.8 million sole-source, cost-plus-award-fee contract modification. The CLIN 0008 option, “Future Upgrades and Engineering Support,” will help the Missile Defense Agency execute technical analysis for the Aegis BMD 5.1/SM-3 Block IIA combination, which is critical to PAA Phase 3. Exercising CLIN 0008 increases the total contract value from $276.7 – $286.5 million.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ through Sept 30/16, and will be incrementally funded by FY 2011 research, development, test, and evaluation funds. Though the SM-3 Block IIA is a cooperative program with Japan, this is not a foreign military sales acquisition. The US MDA in Dahlgren, VA manages the contract (HQ0276-10-C-0005, PO 0015).

July 6/11: DSB Report. In an open letter, the US Defense Science Board aims to dispel impressions that they recommended against the SM-3, which by its nature is a mid-course or terminal phase interceptor:

“The DSB concluded that the Missile Defense Agency is on the right track in developing European Phased Adapted Approach (EPAA) options, including continued evolution of the SM-3 family of missiles… The DSB also examined the potential in the EPAA context for EI [Early Intercept] in regional defense against short-range missiles before threat payloads could be deployed, and concluded that this was not a viable option because of technical constraints… The fact that this form of EI is not viable in shorter-range regional applications does not imply that either SM-3 family interceptors or the EPAA concept are flawed… MDA is on the right track in pursuing this capability for national missile defense, and examining the potential application in regional defense as a function of the range of threat missiles.”

June 23/11: CRS Report. The US Congressional Research Service releases the latest update of “Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress” [PDF]. Key excerpts:

“Some observers are concerned – particularly in light of the EPAA – that demands from U.S. regional military commanders for BMD-capable Aegis ships are growing faster than the number of BMD-capable Aegis ships. They are also concerned that demands from U.S. regional military commanders for… BMD operations could strain the Navy’s ability to provide regional military commanders with Aegis ships for performing non-BMD missions… MDA states that SM-3 Block IAs have a unit procurement cost of about $9 million to $10 million, that SM-3 Block IBs have an estimated unit procurement cost of about $12 million to $15 million, and that SM-3 Block IIAs have an estimated unit procurement cost of about $20 million to $24 million.”

June 15/11: Czech Republic. The Czech Republic formally abandons its proposed role in the U.S. “Phased Adaptive Approach” to missile defense. Defense Minister Alexander Vondra told visiting Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn that his country no longer wanted to participate in the American system, but would continue working within NATO on potential European defenses. Stars & Stripes.

Czech out

April 15/11: Testing. Flight Test Standard Missile-15 (FTM-15) begins to test the European Phased Adaptive Approach architecture, firing an SM-3 Block 1A missile against an intermediate-range (officially, 1,864 – 3,418 miles) target, based on AN/TPY-2 ground-based radar data, before the USS O’Kane (DDG 77, equipped with AEGIS BMD 3.6.1) could pick the target up using its own radar. Initial indications are that all components performed as designed, and the missile recorded the 21st successful AEGIS BMD intercept in 25 tries.

The target missile was launched from the Reagan Test Site, located on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands, approximately 2,300 miles SW of Hawaii. The AN/TPY-2 radar, which is also used as part of the THAAD missile system, was located on Wake Island, and crewed by Soldiers from the 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command. It detected and tracked the missile, then sent trajectory information to the 613th Air and Space Operations Center’s C2BMC(Command, Control, Battle Management, and Communications) system at Hickam Air Force Base, HI. That was relayed to USS O’Kane, sailing to the west of Hawaii, which launched the SM-3-1A missile about 11 minutes after target take-off. O’Kane’s own AN/SPY-1 radar eventually picked up the incoming missile itself, and controlled the missile until impact.

As an important sidebar, the 2 demonstration Space Tracking and Surveillance Satellites (STSS), launched by MDA in 2009, successfully acquired the target missile, providing stereo “birth to death” tracking of the target missile.

FTM-15 was less dramatic than the 2008 satellite kill using an SM-3, but it’s equally significant. The successful full integration of ground and naval defenses, remote launch, and supplementary satellite track confirmed that EPAA Phase I, which has already deployed, works. It did so even though launch on remote track was supposed to wait for AEGIS BMD 5.1, and IRBMs were supposed to wait for SM-3 Block II. Instead, the test also combined to extend the current system’s proven capabilities, while validating the difficult connections that make a missile defense system more than the sum of its parts, and proving out an important early warning element (STSS) in the system. US MDA | Lockheed Martin | Raytheon | Lexington Institute.

April 3-18/11: The Russian Question, Take 2. Russia’s NATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin describes the issue of NATO-Russian missile defense cooperation as “a complicated matter, but it is not hopeless.” Nonetheless, differences run very deep. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov roiled the waters recently when he said that:

“We insist on only one thing: that we’re an equal part of [a joint missile defense arrangement]. In practical terms, that means our office will sit, for example, in Brussels and agrees on a red-button push to start an anti-missile, regardless of whether it starts from Poland, Russia or the U.K.”

It’s not 100% clear if he meant veto power over launches, though it certainly sounds that way. In response, Sen. Mark Kirk [R-IL] sent a letter to President Obama, co-signed by 38 Republican senators. Excerpt:

“In our view, any agreement that would allow Russia to influence the defense of the United States or our allies, to say nothing of a “red button” or veto, would constitute a failure of leadership… ask for your written assurances that your Administration will not provide Russia with any access to sensitive U.S. data, including early warning, detection, tracking, targeting, and telemetry data, sensors or common operational picture data, or American hit-to-kill missile defense technology…”

They’re not likely to get those things, but it’s a warning shot that any agreement along these lines would face a Senate backlash, and become a 2012 election issue. NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen also poured cold water on the concept, saying “We are thinking about two systems – one NATO’s and one Russian – that will cooperate and exchange information to make us more secure.” Bloomberg re: Lavrov | Agence France Presse | right-wing Heritage Foundation | Russia’s ITAR-TASS | Moscow Times re: NATO | The Telegraph (UK) | Voice of Russia re: Rogozin | AEI’s Weekly Standard (incl. full text of Senators’ letter).

March 24/11: GAO Report. The US GAO issues report #GAO-11-372: “Missile Defense: Actions Needed to Improve Transparency and Accountability.” Key excerpts:

“In 2010, MDA was able to meet or exceed its delivery goals for several MDA activities, such as missile defense upgrades to Aegis ships… MDA finalized a new process in which detailed baselines were set for several missile defense systems… [but] GAO found its unit and life-cycle cost baselines had unexplained inconsistencies… DOD has not fully implemented a management process that synchronizes European missile defense acquisition activities and ensures transparency and accountability. Without key management and oversight processes, there is a limited basis for oversight, and there is a risk that key components will start production before demonstrating system performance… GAO makes 10 recommendations for MDA to strengthen its resource, schedule and test baselines, facilitate baseline reviews, and further improve transparency and accountability. GAO is also making a recommendation to improve MDA’s ability to carry out its test plan. In response, DOD fully concurred with 7 recommendations. It partially concurred with 3…”

Feb 7/11: Turkey. With Turkey seen to be demurring on proposals to host one or more American AN/TPY-2 radars, as part of a European missile defense shield, US Senators Jon Kyl [R-AZ], James Risch [R-ID], Mark Kirk [R-IL] and James Inhofe [R-OK] have sent a joint letter to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, asking him to consider Georgia as one of several potential alternate hosts.

Georgia’s Deputy Foreign Minister David Dzhalagania says the country has not formulated a concrete position, but thinks the proposal is interesting. The very thing that makes it interesting to Georgia – a major US asset that America would feel compelled to protect if hostilities begin again with Russia – is also the potential down-side to its placement in that country. On the other hand, a radar there would be very well positioned to monitor Iran. Civil Georgia | Georgia’s The Messenger | Russia’s RIA Novosti.

Dec 27/10: AA Kauai. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Sensors in Moorestown, NJ receives a $65.6 million contract modification for production of the Aegis Weapon System, tooling, test equipment, and associated technical services for the Aegis Ashore test site at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii.

Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ (87%), and Clearwater, FL (13%), and is expected to be complete by October 2014. US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC manages the contract (N00024-09-C-5110).

Nov 3/10: AA Kauai. Black & Veatch Special Projects Corp. in Overland Park, KS receives a $6.5 million for firm-fixed price Task Order under an indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity contract for architect-engineer services in support of the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Test Complex at the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. They’ll prepare plans, specifications, cost estimates for design-bid-build requests for proposal contract documents, and other related services for FY 2011.

Work will be performed in Barking Sands, Hawaii, and is expected to be complete by June 2011. One proposal was received for this task order by NAVFAC Hawaii in Pearl Harbor, HI (W912GB-09-D-0062, SR02).

Aug 24/10: AA Kauai. Lockheed Martin Mission Systems and Sensors (LM MS2) in Moorestown, NJ, is being awarded a sole-source, not-to-exceed $69.8 million cost-plus-fixed-fee letter contract to serve as the “Aegis Ashore” Engineering Agent. In accordance with the AA Program of Record. Contract finalization is expected to be complete by Nov 19/10. The work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ, and the performance period is from August 2010 through April 2011.

This project is part of a $278 million program to increase missile testing on Kauai. LM MS2 will provide the engineering and necessary material to support the design of the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Test Complex; the deployment sites; the integration of the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System (AAMDS) into the removable deckhouse; the installation, test and checkout of the AAMDS at these sites; and initial site maintenance and logistics support during site transfer to the lead service. This unfinalized contract will allow LM MS2 to assist in the development of the Aegis Ashore Combat System (AACS) requirements, to include supporting program planning, element capability specification, and concept of operations development. LM MS2 will begin the AACS adaptation, design efforts associated with the configuration of the AAMDS in the removable structure, and designing the enclosures for transport.

LM MS2 will begin those activities associated with validation and verification of the deckhouse requirements and will facilitate system requirements review in September 2010, and system design review in January 2011. FY 2010 Research, Development, Test and Evaluation funds will be utilized to obligate $10.1 million for this effort. The Missile Defense Agency manages this contract (HQ0276-10-C-0003). See also Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

April 1/10: SAR. The Pentagon releases its April 2010 Selected Acquisitions Report, covering major program changes up to December 2009:

“Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) – Program costs decreased $10,068.9 million (-9.7%) from $102,912.4 million to $92,843.5 million, due primarily to the following: cancellation of the Kinetic Energy Interceptor and Multiple Kill Vehicle Program (-$5,304.2 million); cancellation of the Airborne Laser Program (-$2,634.7 million); elimination of the Space Tracking and Surveillance System follow-on constellation (-$1,972.0 million); transition of the sensor content to procurement (-$1,223.7 million); general infrastructure reductions (-$1,216.7 million); revised estimates for special classified programs (-$1,155.4 million); application of revised escalation indices (-$1,169.1 million); reduced Ground-Based Interceptor inventory due to the change of European site architecture (-$88.0 million); and infrastructure reductions (-$1,216.7 million). These decreases were partially offset by the change in European architecture to Aegis Ashore (+$2,493.5 million) [emphasis DID’s] and the consolidation of targets and revised Integrated Master Test Plan (+$1,646.4 million). In addition, procurement costs of $9,520.3 million, which were previously excluded from the SAR due to its pre-Milestone B Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E)-only status pursuant to section 2432 of title 10, United States Code, were added as an adjustment to the program in accordance with Congressional direction. RDT&E and Military Construction (MILCON) costs of $14,340.1 million were also added as adjustments to reflect the addition of two years to this program, which is considered Future Years Defense Program (FYDP) limited and has been allowed to add two years of cost to the program with each biennial budget. These adjustments are not considered to represent cost growth.”

Program costs

Dec 7/09: Europe BMD. Aviation Week notes several undercurrents involved in discussions around Europe’s missile defense.

One is “consequences of intercept,” which are certainly less than the consequences of a missile strike, but could well fall outside the launching country. Another is the compressed time frames, which means authority will reside in the commander – who will that be, and where will that commander be based?

A 3rd question is how the proposed SM-3 phases mesh with European NATO plans, including NATO’s Active Layered Theater Ballistic Missile Defense (ALTBMD) program command and control hub, and proposed land-based radars. Which are going to be an issue all their own, since the system requires them, and the American TPY-2s may not be the only players. Finally, there’s the question of whether European navies will join the program, which would further blue the question of whether this is an American system with NATO ancillaries, or a NATO system with American assets.

Nov 17/09: Early intercept. Northrop Grumman announces a 3-month $4.7 million task order from the US Missile Defense Agency, under an indefinite-delivery/ indefinite-quantity Joint National Integration Center Research and Development Contract. Under the Sept 29/09 task order, the firm will help the MDA integrate and demonstrate an early-intercept capability using existing SM-3 and GBI missiles. This kind of capability is especially relevant for forward-based SM-3s.

The Early Intercept effort aims to address renewed focus by the U.S. Department of Defense on dealing with large raids and countermeasures. Early Intercept will demonstrate an integrated architecture of early warning sensors, including space, airborne, land and sea; regional fire control and battle manager systems; and secure communications. This integrated architecture will enable current systems to engage threats earlier in the battle space to improve protection against large raids and facilitate “shoot-look-shoot” opportunities.

Northrop Grumman will begin by assessing existing sensor and battle management systems’ ability to support missile interception in the difficult boost phase, including technology developed for programs like the now-canceled Kinetic Energy Interceptor and battle management projects. The firm will plan demonstration experiments, leading toward the design and development of an experimental, plug-and-play architecture for battle management, command and control.

FY 2008 – 2009

Israeli interest in land-based SM-3; EPAA plan unveiled. SM-3 launch from CG 70
(click to view full)

Sept 17/09: Plan B – EPAA. The Obama administration announces revised plans for its European missile defense architecture. Instead of positioning Boeing’s Ground-Based Interceptors, which could intercept even the longest-range ballistic missiles, they choose an architecture based around the SM-3.

According to Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and Vice-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. James Cartwright, the new plan begins with the current deployment of Patriot PAC-3 point defense systems in Europe, which may be adjusted. Those adjustments will bear watching, as early indicators of seriousness.

• In 2011, the US Navy is expected to have naval SM-3 Block 1A missiles and ships fully in place, on an expanded fleet of BMD-capable ships versus the 2 Atlantic Fleet destroyers available today. Unfortunately, naval SM-3 Block 1 missiles cannot cover the Czech Republic at all, and can offer only limited coverage for Poland. This will be the only option until 2015, which is beyond the Obama administration’s current term of office.

• 2015 would see progress on 2 fronts. One is SM-3 Block 1B missiles, and an improved AEGIS BMD system that will expand the range of coverage for American ships. The other would be land-based SM-3s in an easily-deployable configuration, based in Europe, instead of the longer-range Boeing Ground Based Interceptors. Political support for that land-based deployment is likely to become a political flash point, again.

• The final iteration would take place in 2018 or so, with deployment of the much larger SM-3 Block II missile, on ships and (if deployments have been accepted) on shore. Gen. Cartwright stated that no more than 3 SM-3 Block II locations would be able to cover all of Europe, but cautions that it’s an earlier-stage R&D effort, with all the expected implications for dates and certainty of capabilities.

Cartwright and Gates also added several additional considerations that affected their decision. One was Russian concerns about having large X-band BMD radars that could peer deeply into Russia. By using shorter-range, directional TPY-2 radars deployed in the Caucasus, Iranian aggression can also be hedged without covering Russia so deeply – something that allies like Poland may not necessarily see as a plus. The other, more significant Russian concern was that the GBI missile was powerful enough to be fitted with a nuclear warhead, and become an offensive MRBM with very low warning time. American denials did little to dissuade the Russians, since one must plan on the basis of capabilities rather than intent. That concept becomes technically ridiculous with an SM-3, removing that issue from the table.

Another issue for the USA was cost and flexibility. Gen. Cartwright cited a cost-per-missile of $3.3 million for a Patriot PAC-3, about $9 million for THAAD v1, $9.5-10 million for SM-3 Block I, about $13-15 million estimated for SM-3 Block II… and $70 million for the GBI interceptors. In a global environment that was seeing rapid growth of medium-range offensive missiles, that cost disparity had implications for strategic flexibility, as well as budgets. According to Gates and Cartwright, the GBI deployment was really designed to deal with 3-5 incoming intercontinental missiles, rather than larger salvos of medium-range missiles that are now possible. GBI is also silo-based and so immobile, as opposed to mobile ships and redeployable land-based SM-3s. The question is whether the USA will actually increase its planned buys of SM-3 in response, something that Information Dissemination’s report suggests hasn’t really been thought through yet. The US Navy’s next 5-year budget plan will tell the tale.

With that cost and architecture change comes a 3rd consideration: greater capacity for allied burden-sharing. Several other nations deploy and will deploy AEGIS ships that could be upgraded to SM-3 BMD capability, including Japan (Kongo class, being upgraded), South Korea (KDX-III), Spain and Australia (F100), plus the non-AEGIS F124 frigates fielded by Germany and the Netherlands. The SM-3 missile has already been exported, and could easily be exported more widely. Gen. Cartwright cited the potential for development of a common architecture linking land and naval systems, which would be deployed in Europe, Asia, Israel, and elsewhere. The architecture is being developed to incorporate non-American systems, and Israel’s IAI/Boeing Arrow was specifically cited. Gates added that talks along these lines had begun with Arab Gulf states, who are already developing their own missile defense preparations based on regional command and control systems, Patriot missiles, and possibly THAAD and MBDA’s comparable Aster-30 SAMP/Ts.

Meanwhile, THAAD missiles are still scheduled to deploy to Europe in 2009, as part of operational testing, and the system is still planned for roll-out as the Army’s area-defense weapon. The USA is also still interested in adding 2-stage capability to its GMD/GBI interceptors in Alaska and California, in order to improve their speed and increase their range. The big winner in these changes, however, is unquestionably Raytheon’s SM-3. Pentagon: Gates/ Cartwright press conference | Pentagon: DoD/ Czech MoD press conference | Aviation Week | Aviation Week Ares | Defense Tech called it early | Information Dissemination | Lexington Institute.

Switch to EPAA

August 18/09: Onto land. In a presentation at the 2009 Space and Missile Defense Conference & Exhibition in Huntsville, AL, Raytheon announces that it is developing a land-based system SM-3 system that would work with THAAD’s Raytheon-made AN/TPY-2 long range radar, and could be ready as early as 2013.

The presentation states that this solution could provide Israel a near-term solution to counter ballistic missiles from Iran, given the deployment of TPY-2 radars in Israel by the US government. It is also reportedly under consideration for use in Europe as the missile component of planned deployments in Poland and the Czech Republic.

It’s no accident that this comes just as Boeing announces a “mobile GMD” proposal for Europe by 2015, and Lockheed Martin has gone farther by submitting a modified THAAD proposal to the US Missile Defense Agency for consideration in the 2011 budget. Lockheed Martin has already invested privately funded R&D into a 21″ wide THAAD variant that would nearly double the Army interceptor missile’s range. Current SM-3s are 13.5″ in diameter, current THAADs are 14.5″, and the proposed SM-3 Block II being developed in partnership with Japan will also be 21″ in diameter. It would appear that a competition for the forward-deployed theater defense role may be brewing. Arutz Sheva | Reuters | Aviation Week re: shifts in doctrine | Aviation Week re: THAAD | Jerusalem Post re: Boeing’s “mobile GBI”.

April 27/09: Study. Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun reports that the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has started studying a new missile defense system capable of launching the Standard Missile-3 from the ground.

Aug 4/09: Study. Colin Clark of DOD Buzz publishes a short video interview with Raytheon VP of advanced missile defense and directed energy Mike Booen. The interview took place at the 2009 Paris Air Show, and the topic is the $50 million FY 2010 US military budget request to study land-based SM-3 deployment.

July 17/08: Israel. Aviation Week reports that the US Missile Defense Agency is considering a land-based variant of the SM-3 Standard missile, at Israel’s request:

“SM-3 prime contractor Raytheon is examining a range of options — including a moveable, but not highly mobile, system that could fill Israel’s needs. Very few modifications would be needed for the missile and some tweaks would be required in the command and control system. The system would employ the same vertical launch modules, in an eight-pack configuration, used in the Aegis ship-based system.”

Appendix A: EPAA – The Rationale for The Switch GBI Missile loading
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When it was first announced in 2009, land-based deployment of SM-3 missiles was seen as a political move. That’s partly true. The proposed GBI missile is so powerful that it could be fitted with a nuclear warhead, and become a serviceable MRBM itself. This made Russia very uneasy. Then, too, a massive American investment in fixed site deployments, in countries that could cave in to pressure and ask the USA to leave later on, was both politically and financially problematic.

There’s also a valid military rationale in the European theater for replacing the longer-range Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system used in the USA itself, with the shorter-range and seemingly less-capable SM-3. The bottom line is more missiles, in semi-mobile locations. SM-3 missiles cost about 80% less than GMD’s GBI missiles, and the ground-based infrastructure of adapted Mk.41 vertical launchers and mobile radars is also less expensive than GMD’s full multi-silo complex and fixed radar. Now throw in the ability to move those assets once they’re built, and to quickly bulk up defenses using similar systems deployed at sea. That’s very useful against an enemy who is building a lot of MRBM/IRBM missiles, and could easily use a mass rush offense to overwhelm limited numbers of GBI interceptors – possibly coupled with terrorist operations against their fixed GMD launch complexes.

All of the rationales regarding mobile options vs. fixed sites evaporated when the US MDA switched to the Aegis Ashore configuration, which shares all of the same drawbacks inherent to fixed GMD deployments. The cost benefits remain intact, however, and so does the rationale for deploying more missiles in theater.

Meanwhile, the switch had political costs. Countries like Poland and the Czech Republic are out of range for naval SM-3 Block 1 coverage, and would require too many THAAD batteries on land. That had prompted the push for GBI missiles, and those governments had held firm in the face of domestic political controversy. The USA’s revised plans dealt them a political setback, and delayed meaningful local missile defenses until around 2015 or later. The shift was somewhat jarring, and the Czech Republic subsequently dropped out of US missile defense plans. In 2012, Poland followed with a declaration that it would deploy its own parallel system.

Israel’s Possible Rationales Arrow test concept
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Statements from Raytheon indicated that Israel was already doing research into a land-based SM-3, despite its existing Patriot PAC-2 GEM+ and Arrow-2 architecture. In the end, however, Israel maintained of its focus on an improved “Arrow-3” interceptor, and America agreed to support that program in the FY 2010 budget. Those developments leave dim odds for land-based SM-3s in Israel.

The question is why they were interested in the first place. Several possibilities exist that might justify an Israeli desire to retain an active Arrow missile fleet, and still deploy the SM-3s.

One is the naval defense option. While Israel has apparently decided on a different direction, its proposed LCS-I frigates would have possessed the ability to fire SM-3 missiles, and their proposed MEKO derivatives might still have that if they’re equipped with strike-length Mk. 41 VLS launchers. The Arrow missile has not been integrated with the Mk.41 VLS, and the program has not described navalization plans.

The 2nd possible justification for an Israeli SM-3 buy revolves around and command-and-control developments. Like the LCS-I, any new Israeli frigates firing an SM-3 would need to link to an anti-ballistic capable radar for guidance. Israel already fields ABM-capable land radars like its “Green Pine” system, and the USA has reportedly moved manned AN/TPY-2 THAAD radars into Israel as additional insurance against a Second Holocaust perpetrated by Iran. Linkage of a naval missile’s guidance to those kinds of land platforms would involve many of the same modifications required by a fully land-launched and controlled SM-3, and statements by America’s General Cartwright say that the USA’s land-based anti-missile command and control systems that will work with land-based SM-3s, are also being developed to include the Arrow.

The 3rd possible justification is range. The SM-3 boasts a range about 5x longer than the Arrow-2, at 300 miles vs. 50-60 miles. A tripartite system of SM-3, Arrow-2, and Patriot missiles would effectively offer the 3 layered tiers required by a country of Israel’s size: national defense/ first line of defense, defense of key regions/ second shot, and defense of specific sites/ final attempt.

Fourth, deployment would coincide with a growing shift in the USA to focus on “ascent-phase intercept” of medium (MRBM) and intermediate-range (IRBM) missiles. If the launchers are deployed close enough to the firing missile, interceptions become possible sometime between the boost and mid-course phases during entry into space, right before the target missile can begin deploying decoys. The Middle East’s compressed distances are a threat, due to low warning times and the resulting hair-triggers. They might also be an opportunity.

Finally, the SM-3 is an active production item for the USA and Japan, which leverages the infrastructure created by a large-scale, full-rate production set of programs. This means that SM-3s can be produced far faster than additional Arrow missiles. If developments in Iran are leading Israel to conclude that it needs to deploy many more theater-range defensive missiles within a short period of time, the THAAD and Arrow programs are unlikely to be able to handle that request due to the stage they’re at, and the industrial framework around them. That would leave the SM-3 as Israel’s only realistic rapid plus-up option.

In the end, as noted above, Israel decided to improve its Arrow system and create the Arrow-3, with funding assistance from the USA. The country clearly considers ballistic missile defense to be a strategic technology capability, has yet to purchase ships that would make naval SM-3 deployment possible, and have already spent the money to integrate the Arrow system with Israel’s air defense architecture. The SM-3’s land-based progress will happen elsewhere.

Additional Readings Background: EPAA Systems

• US MDA – Aegis Ashore.

• US MDA – Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense: Future Capabilities.

• DID FOCUS – Raytheon’s Standard Missile Naval Defense Family.

• NATO – Ballistic missile defence.

• DID – Alone, If Necessary: The Shield of Poland. Poland will be fielding a national air and missile defense system as a complement to EPAA – and also as insurance against its failure.

Official Reports

• US National Research Council – Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: An Assessment of Concepts and Systems for U.S. Boost-Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives. Tremendous in-depth look at US missile defense, from September 2012.

• US GAO (April 11/14, #GAO-14-314) Ballistic Missile Defense: Actions Needed to Address Implementation Issues and Estimate Long-Term Costs for European Capabilities.

• US Congressional Research Service (#RL33745) – Navy Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) Program: Background and Issues for Congress [PDF]. Last update April 8/14.

• US GAO (April 1/14, #GAO-14-351) – Missile Defense: Mixed Progress in Achieving Acquisition Goals and Improving Accountability.

• US GAO (Apr 26/13, #GAO-13-432) – Opportunity to Refocus on Strengthening Acquisition Management. Notes a civil wireless spectrum issue with EPAA’s radars.

• US GAO (Feb 11/13, #GAO-13-382R) – Standard Missile-3 Block IIB Analysis of Alternatives. Argues why they should do one. They cancel it instead.

• US GAO (April 20/12, #GAO-12-486) – “Opportunity Exists to Strengthen Acquisitions by Reducing Concurrency.

• US GAO (March 24/11, #GAO-11-372) – Missile Defense: Actions Needed to Improve Transparency and Accountability. Includes EPAA.

News & Views

• Breaking Defense (Oct 17/13) – Why Russia Keeps Moving The Football On European Missile Defense: Politics. “Ironically, moving the technology further away from Russian borders could increase the potential for its successful use against Russian missiles. So, whether or not Russian technical concerns could ever really be assuaged must be questioned.”

• Commentary Magazine (December 2009) – The Missile Defense Betrayal. The revised European missile defense plan was not universally well-received on the political front, with many conservatives sharply critical. Commentary Magazine’s article includes coverage of the political dynamics at work in Poland and the Czech Republic.

• Lexington Institute (Nov 5/09) – Aegis Ashore: The Navy’s New Missile Defense Mantra.

FC-1/ JF-17, armed
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The FC-1/ JF-17 Thunder is a joint Chinese-Pakistani project that aimed to reduce Pakistan’s dependence on western firms for advanced fighters, by fielding a low-cost multi-role lightweight fighter that can host modern electronics and precision-guided weapons. It isn’t a top-tier competitor, but it represents a clear step up from Pakistan’s Chinese MiG-19/21 derivatives and French Mirage III/V fighters. This positioning addresses a budget-conscious, “good enough” performance market segment that the West once dominated, but has nearly abandoned in recent decades.

Pakistan has fielded JF-17s in squadron strength, with more on order and a Block II R&D program nearing completion. India’s competing Tejas fighter is overcoming project delays by looking to foreign component sources, but Pakistan and China remain out front with their offering, even though they began their project much later than India did. Pakistan and China have even set up a joint JF-17 marketing agency to promote export sales, which hasn’t paid off as quickly as they had hoped, but it would be unwise to count them out just yet…

The JF-17 Thunder, aka. FC-1 Fierce Dragon JF-17 at IDEAS 2008
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The JF-17/FC-1 is a $20 million class fighter designed as a co-operative venture between Pakistan and China to replace Chinese A-5C (massively modified MiG-19), F-7P (MiG-21+), and French Mirage 3/5 aircraft in Pakistan’s fleet. China also has options to produce them, but has made no firm decisions and seems unenthusiastic. It’s a comparable peer for India’s still-under-development LCA Tejas, Taiwan’s F-CK-1 Ching Kuo fighters, and South Korea’s F/A-50 Golden Eagle supersonic trainer & light fighter.

F-20 (1980s)

The design itself is fairly conventional, resembling a somewhat boxy F-20. A drag chute can be installed at the base of the rudder, in order to make landings easier and shorter. Power will be provided by the RD-93 derivative of the MiG-29’s RD-33 engine; it’s proven and widely used, but known to leave smoke trails. Future models may see the engine replaced with China’s WS-13, an RD-93 copy with some modifications. Avionics involve a modern “glass” cockpit of digital screens, using Chinese technologies, and commercial processors. Reports indicate that aircraft software coding was done in the commercial C++ language, rather than a military language like Ada.

Farnborough array
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Conflicting reports exist regarding its databuses: MIL-STD-1553, or the more advanced MIL-STD-1760. That will affect its range of usable weapons, and GPS-guided weapons in particular benefit from the -1760 databus.

China’s KLJ-7 mechanically-scanned array serves as the radar, despite past media references to a deal with Thales, or to the Selex Galileo’s Grifo. Grifo already equips Pakistan’s F-7s (Grifo-7), and some of its Mirage III/Vs (Grifo M3/M5), and Selex Galileo’s own materials [PDF] describe the Grifo S7 as “The version selected for the JF-17 aircraft.” Even so, multiple reports from November 2010 consistently point to the Chinese KLJ-7 instead. the following table compares the JF-17 with India’s indigenous Tejas fighter, which has taken far longer to develop and isn’t quite in service yet:

At present, the main questions concerning Pakistan’s JF-17s revolve around integrated sensors and weapons, rather than the aircraft itself or its performance. The Farnborough 2010 display showed Chinese air-air missiles, a LeiShi-6 guided glide bomb, China’s C802 anti-ship missile, and even a WMD-7 laser designator pod. Full status as a recognized multirole fighter, however, must wait until their ability to use precision laser guidance and/or GPS-guided ground attack weapons is confirmed.

JF-17/FC-1: The Program PAF F-16A drops Mk.82s
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Sino Defense reminds us that the JF-17/FC-1 ‘Xiaolong’ has a long history. The site recalls that China signed a $550 million agreement with Grumman in 1986 to modernise its J-7 fighter (MiG-21 copy) under the “Super-7” upgrade project, with US and British firms competing to provide the engine and avionics. The project was canceled after the Tienanmen Square massacre, but Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corporation managed to continue the program with its own resources, and the project was eventually re-branded as FC-1 (Fighter China-1).

The next big step forward for FC-1 came when the USA imposed military export sanctions in response to Pakistan’s nuclear program, and to Chinese-Pakistani transfers of ballistic missile components. With spares for its top-of-the-line F-16s in question, and additional F-16s removed as an option, Pakistan sought help from its Chinese ally.

A joint development and production agreement was signed in June 1999, with China Aviation Import and Export Corporation (CATIC) and Pakistan each contributing 50% of the estimated $150 million in development costs. The design was finalized in 2001, with initial prototype flights beginning in 2003. A JF-17 did not fly with its full avionics suite until 2006, but testing and development appear to have progressed smoothly. Until political complications intervened.

Unfortunately for India, the engine export understanding that they thought they had with Russia, was reversed by Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. JF-17 production began in 2009, complete with Russian engines.

Chinese J-7E
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Ultimately, Pakistan intends to induct 150-250 JF-17s into its air force, replacing most of its Mirage III/Vs, F-7s (Chinese MiG-21 copies), and A-5Cs (massively modified Chinese MiG-19 derivatives). The A-5s will retire more or less immediately as JF-17s enter service, and the Mirages are next in line for replacement due to their uncertain spares situation. The number of JF-17s requested could rise, and some reports place potential Pakistani orders as high as 300 aircraft. Even at the JF-17’s bargain price, however, Pakistan’s budgets will be hard-pressed to afford that many. In the short term, even reaching the desired goal of 150 JF-17s could prove challenging without external aid.

China has remained on the fence regarding the program, with no PLAAF orders to date. Their air force appears to be more focused on their 4+ generation J-10 design, which offers more advanced capabilities and aerodynamics. The FC-1 remains a candidate to replace large numbers of PLAAF MiG-17s (J-5) and MiG-19s (J-6/ Q-5), if the PLAAF decides it needs to take steps to maintain the size of its force. If not, the FC-1’s role is likely to resemble the Northrop F-5’s. The USA sold them in large numbers to other countries, even as the USAF equipped itself with larger and more expensive designs instead.

Stuck in Sichuan: The Saga

The Pakistan Government had hoped to sign a deal to acquire 150 JF-17/FC-1 fighters in 2007, with 8 aircraft in service by year’s end. China had reportedly even bought 100 Klimov RD-93 engines from Russia for installing on JF-17s, with an option to contract for another 400 engines.

In January 2007, however, Forecast International reported that Russia had refused permission for the transfer of its RD-93 engines, derived from the RD-33 that equips the MiG-29. According to FI the decision came only a few days after a visit to India by Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov, during which a number of joint defense projects were discussed and agreements were signed. January 2007, DID:

“The military world has no shortage of irony. The defense industry has its moments too, as Pakistan just discovered. An aircraft whose development was driven by military sanctions from the US and Europe is now derailed by military sanctions [regarding its engines]. This leaves the Pakistani Air Force dependent on an alternative from… America. Meanwhile, the Chinese are left with no export launch customer for a plane they may now have to reluctantly buy themselves, instead of the favoured and more capable J-10. Somewhere in Delhi, champagne is pouring – but first, a bit of background.”

Coincidence? Didn’t look like it. Replacement with another engine? Unless it’s a very close copy, that requires re-work of the entire fighter design and takes years. Just ask the Chinese J-10 project team.

As it turned out, however, that wasn’t necessary. The arms market also features no shortage of change, and Russia eventually chose not prevent re-export of the RD-93 engines, in an announcement that caught even India’s diplomats by surprise. The RD-93 comes with some disadvantages, including a tendency to leave smoke trails, but tacit re-export approval removed a huge potential roadblock, and let the program proceed more or less on schedule.

Updates and Key Events 2010 – 2015

1st & 2nd squadrons stand up; Fatal JF-17 crash; JF-17 Block II production begins; Myanmar interested again; Saudi Arabia’s interest a puzzle. Dubai 2013

December 22/15: Malaysia may consider purchasing Pakistan’s JF-17 aircraft as part of its current fighter replacement program. Malaysian High Commissioner to Pakistan, Dr. Hasrul Sani made the announcement citing the excellent relations both nations currently have in terms of defense cooperation. The sale would also see further increase in the bilateral trade between the two, which currently stands at over $2 billion per annum. Other options currently being considered are the Dassault Rafale, Boeing’s F/A-18 and Lockheed Martin’s F-16V. The interest in the JF-17 comes alongside the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project which will see over $40 billion invested in Pakistan’s infrastructure and economic development. Dr. Sani stated that the whole region would stand to benefit from the CPEC project.

November 24/15: Pakistan is to keep using the the Russian made RD-93 engine for its series of JF-17 fighters. The confirmation comes after hints made by Chinese officials that Pakistan would revert back to an original arrangement with China but Pakistan Air Force (PAF) officials are happy with the Russian engine. PAF officials have said that improvements to the JF-17 along with the reliability of the RD-93 engine has resulted in a number of interested parties. Russia on the other hand will be happy to see product solidarity due to economic sanctions over Ukraine closing many export markets.

October 12/15: Sri Lankan Air Force officials are due to arrive in Islamabad in November to discuss a possible acquisition of JF-17 fighters, according to Pakistani press reports. Sri Lanka played down reports in June that the country was the first export customer for the JF-17, stating that a decision has yet to be made on a possible procurement of the fighter.

June 15/14: Myanmar. The government of Myanmar has stepped back from its close Chinese alliance in recent years, but reports indicate that they may be taking a second look at the JF-17. The junta recently bought more Russian MiG-29s instead (q.v. Dec 23/09), but MiG-29s are notoriously difficult to keep in service. The problem is a combination of short part lifespans, and byzantine Russian “service” procedures.

“The Government of Myanmar is planning to acquire technologies from China and Pakistan to build JF-17 multirole combat aircraft at its own aircraft factory to boost its Air Force…. The force is plagued by serviceability issues due to lack of spare parts and trained manpower however introduction of JF-17 would mean that Myanmar Air Force will be investing in such areas to mitigate its short comings.”

Production may be a stretch, but parts production and a local servicing depot may be doable. The report offers an existing force breakdown of 32 MiG-29B/SE as the modern force, plus 25 F-7Ms (Chinese MiG-21 knockoff) and 21 Nanchang A-5C (Chinese plane based on MiG-19 but heavily modified). A mix of 16 Chinese (K-8) and Serbian (Sokol Galeb) jet trainers are used for ground attack roles, as well as pilot training. Sources: Burma Times, “Myanmar plans JF-17 production” | The Diplomat, “Burma to Purchase Chinese-Pakistani JF-17 Fighter Jets” | See also DID, “More MiG-29s for Myanmar”.

June 20/14: R&D. Defense News begins a report in a very odd way, saying that “Contrary to speculation, development of the JF-17 aircraft continues apace…” We’re scratching our heads as to why anyone ever thought otherwise, given announcements re: Block II development and the jet’s clear importance to Pakistan. Indeed, Chief Project Director and Air Vice Marshal Javed Ahmed was quick to aver that the PAF’s 3rd squadron would be operational by year-end.

Ahmed adds that avionics improvements are underway, using the words “situational awareness” but not specifically corroborating rumors of a helmet-mounted display. Near-term improvements will also reportedly focus on “integrating some additional smart and indigenously developed weapons”. The Chinese NRIET KLJ-7 will remain the fighter’s main radar, however, as possible substitutions won’t be considered until the program reaches Block III. An AESA radar, and the possibility of offering drop-in western radar & avionics for export, are both under investigation.

On the other hand, former Pakistani Air Commodore Kaiser Tufail claims that the JF-17’s range is an issue, citing the frequency of flights with drop tanks and the averaged length of sorties. MiG-29s, which use a very similar engine, are known to have range issues, but the JF-17 uses only 1 engine. The Klimov RD-93 is less efficient than GE’s F404/F414, however, and public information gives the JF-17 fuel reserves and operational weight that are similar to the short range Indian Tejas LCA. Tufail may have a point. Sources: Defense News, “JF-17 Developments Indicate Aircraft Is Still On Track”.

Jan 23/14: Saudi Arabia. After Saudi Deputy Defense Minister Prince Salman Bin Sultan visits Pakistan and tours the JF-17 production complex, the World Tribune reports that:

“…officials said representatives of the ministry as well as the Royal Saudi Air Force were examining the feasibility of procuring JF-17 as part of cooperation with Islamabad. “This project could provide the kingdom with technology that could be used in future projects,” an official said.”

Saudi Arabia is an important donor to Pakistan’s government, and there are persistent rumors that the Saudis even financed Pakistan’s nuclear program. On the one hand, JF-17 cooperation could make sense industrially. The Saudis tried to set up a local Eurofighter final assembly and check-out line with BAE, but the kingdom backed off when it became clear that this wouldn’t work. The JF-17 might be an easier starting point, and it would also fit with growing Saudi interest in defense equipment that requires zero American involvement.

On the other hand, there’s no real hole in the RSAF that JF-17s need to fill. The RSAF’s F-5s are no longer frontline fighters; they and the Tornado F3 ADV interceptors have effectively been replaced by an order for 72 high-end Eurofighter Typhoons. The Typhoons already offer a potent non-American option, and the depth and breadth of the pre-existing Al-Yamamah partnership with Britain would make any cancellation a region-altering diplomatic event. Meanwhile, an in-progress order for 84 new Boeing F-15SA Strike Eagles is well underway, and contract penalties would make the order almost pointless to cancel at this point.

The Saudis are already expanding their fighter fleet with these buys. They would have to either expand it further to accommodate the JF-17 – or become industrial partners, and then use JF-17s as a form of regional aid that isn’t subject to American ITAR regulations. Most likely: they do none of those things, while making an ally feel good by being publicly impressed, and holding some initial discussions that go nowhere. Sources: World Tribune, “Saudi eyeing Pakistan’s JF-17 fighter jet, modeled from U.S. F-16”.

Dec 19/13: Block-II begins. Pakistan Aeronautical Complex in Kamra rolls out their 50th JF-17 fighter, and reportedly launches production of the Block II variant with improved avionics, air-to-air refueling capability, and additional weapons. Flight International’s World Air Forces 2013 lists total Pakistan’s JF-17 orders as 70 planes, plus 50 more pending finalization. Meanwhile:

“Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif…. mentioned the Pakistan China Economic Corridor project, which would link Gwadar to China through Khunjrab Pass and said that economic zones would be set up along the Corridor. The project would have far-reaching impact on the future of both countries, he added. Nawaz said cheap labour in Pakistan would also contribute to the smooth materialisation of projects with China.”

Block 2 production is expected to continue until at least 2016, after which some sources say manufacture of Block 3 will begin. That variant may get a new engine, either an updated RD-93 or possibly a Chinese engine if one is ready. Sources: DAWN, “Production of improved version of JF-17 aircraft launched” | Pakistan’s The Nation, “Production of JF-17 fighter jet launched” | Defense News, “Pakistan Rolls Out 50th JF-17, Block II Production To Commence” | The Diplomat, “Pakistan Begins Producing Block-II JF-17 Aircraft”.

Block II begins

Nov 19/13: Weapons. Flight International carries a report regarding a large Chinese precision strike missile. It’s hard to say how accurate such presentations are, but here’s the claim:

“A full list of specifications for the CM-400AKG missile was played on a loop inside the AVIC exhibit stand at the Dubai air show; a marketing venue for the JF-17 fighter jointly developed between China and Pakistan…. News reports have indicated the CM-400 has entered service with the Pakistan air force. The AVIC video notes vaguely that the 910kg (2,000lb) weapon “can be carried by JF-17, etc”. It is usually compared with the Indian/Russian Brahmos high-speed cruise missile.”

The CM-400AKG export variant of China’s YJ-12 missile supposedly has a reach of up to 130 nmi, in order to keep it within MTCR treaty limits. It flies at Mach 3+ and high altitude, using GPS/INS as base guidance within 50m CEP, with the ability to switch to Imaging Infrared for final targeting of moving items like ships, possibly augmented by L/S/X-band passive radar. Sources: Flight Global, “DUBAI: China details performance of ‘carrier killer’ missile for JF-17”.

Nov 14/11: A Pakistani JF-17 crashes in the mountainous Attock Distrct, killing Squadron Leader Muhammad Hussain. He had ejected successfully, but his parachute failed to open properly. Pak Tribune.

Crash

May 19/11: Shortly after American special forces killed Osama Bin Laden in a unilateral raid 40 miles from Islamabad, Pakistan announces a wide swath of major defense projects with China. The most consequential is that the deep water port of Gwadar in western Pakistan will be run by its paymasters, the Chinese government. Pakistan also wants the Chinese to build a naval base there, and no doubt expects to have its own ships use that facility alongside the Chinese PLAN.

The flashiest aspect of the announcements involve the JF-17, with reports that China will be sending Pakistan 50 improved JF-17 fighters, with upgraded electronics. To date, JF-17s have rolled off of Pakistani manufacturing/finishing lines, but these will reportedly involve more Chinese manufacturing to speed delivery, arriving within 6 months. Reports say that China is financing the deal, though they differ on the terms, and how much of the cost China is absorbing. Some reports paint the fighters as more or less a gift.

The interest in a batch of 50 more JF-17s isn’t a surprise, nor are the planned improvements (vid. Dec 22/10 entry). If deliveries do complete in that time frame, the end of 2011 will see Pakistan with over 92 serving JF-17s. India’s comparable Tejas will have over a year to go before the 1st squadron is formally inducted, and will still be waiting to conduct qualification tests of key weapons. DAWN | DAWN re: expediting | Kakuda Hafiz | Tribune || India’s NDTV | Economic Times || Wall St. Journal.

Chinese A-5/Q-5
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April 12/11: 2nd squadron. PAF No. 16 Squadron at PAFB Peshawar becomes the 2nd operational squadron with the CAIC-PAC JF-17 Thunder.

The ceremony also marks the retirement of the PAF’s A-5C Fantans, a heavily modified derivative of the MiG-19. The Panthers of 16 Sqn. were the 1st PAF squadron to covert to the A-5C in 1983, and the last to operate the type. AirForces Monthly.

March 1/11: Aviation Week reports that Pakistan is in negotiations with the U.S. to get more Lockheed Martin F-16s, but also quotes PAF Air Chief Marshall Rao Qamar Suleman as saying that indigenous projects will remain a priority. As part of that effort, Pakistan intends to eventually field a supplementary datalink, which would work alongside the Link 16 systems carried by the F-16s and communicate with the JF-17 fleet. With respect to the JF-17s:

“Rao says Pakistan will have the second squadron of JF-17s enter operation at the end of March while simultaneously phasing out all of its Nanchang A-5s… “As for the Chengdu F-7s and Dassault Mirages, we will phase these out as we get JF-17s,” Rao says. “Some of Pakistan’s Mirages are the oldest in the world,” he says, adding that some were built in 1967. Phasing out the older Mirages is a top priority. The Mirages are difficult and costly to maintain because no one is producing spare parts for these aircraft anymore, he says. “We are getting secondhand parts, but we don’t know the history of these spare parts we are getting. It’s a flight safety issue and a nightmare for me,” he adds.”

Jan 26/11: Iraq. JF-17s for Iraq? Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh tells a press conference that the Council of Ministers has approved the purchase of 18 F-16s, and budgeted an unspecified sum. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who is also the acting Defense Minister, would negotiate the deal’s final parameters. There has been talk of a $13 billion weapons buy, which would include the existing DSCA request for F-16IQs, but no confirmation as yet.

The USA will reportedly deliver the F-16s to Iraq within 2-3 years, but in the meantime, and even for some time thereafter, Iraq will not be able to police its own airspace effectively. Iraq Order of Battle author DJ Elliott believes that 2018 would be the earliest. The French are presenting a complementary offer of upgraded Mirage F1s, and DJ Elliott reports that the Iraqis may also be looking at a 3rd option: China & Pakistan’s JF-17 Thunder. Iraq-Business News | DJ Elliott’s Montrose Toast | UPI | Saudi Arab News re: Iraqi readiness.

Dec 22/10: 1st squadron. Aviation Week reports that about half of the 42 JF-17s Pakistan has ordered (q.v. March 7/09) are now in place, and one squadron is operational. PAF officials now plan to set up a 2nd unit. The focus, as is true in all initial inductions, is on getting all staff familiar with the equipment. Fully qualifying crews for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions will be the next step.

PAF Air Commodore Junaid told the magazine that the government hopes to order a second batch of 50 fighters in 2011, with undefined “enhanced features,” though the avionics package fielded on the baseline JF-17 has reportedly been a positive surprise.

PL-12 & PL-8 on JF-17
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Nov 18/10: Avionics & Weapons. Reports from Pakistan indicate that the PAF’s JF-17s will be equipped with Chinese radars and SD-10A/PL-12 medium range air-to-air missiles, thanks to a recent contract with China.

The Thales/MBDA ATE consortium had been seen as front runners for a $1.2 billion contract to equip the first 50 Pakistani JF-17s with radars and missiles, and could stand to reap another EUR 15 million or so per plane thereafter. In April 2010, however, Le Monde reported that the French government had refused to clear the deal. That’s not surprising, since France has a $4+ billion contract to build submarines for India, is competing in the $10-11 billion M-MRCA fighter competition, and wants to sell equipment like frigates and missiles in future. France isn’t in the same geo-political position as the USA, which means retaliation for a defense sale of that magnitude is more likely. France’s DCNS still won India’s Scorpene submarine contract, despite building Agosta AIP submarines for Pakistan, but the French government evidently decided not to chance it this time.

PAF Chief Air Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman told The Nation in an exclusive interview that “PAF has no plans to install Western devices and weapons on the aircraft for the time being.” Pakistan’s The Nation || Agence France Presse | India’s Hindustan Times | Russia’s RIA Novosti | India’s Sify.

July 5/10: Engines & Egypt. India isn’t the only party with reservations about Russian engine exports for the JF-17. United Aircraft Corp. CEO Mikhail Pogosyan publicly opposes the sale of 100 RD-93 jet engines to China, citing the threat of FC-1/JF-17 competition against the MiG-29. He says that said the re-export of technologies should be approved by the original manufacturers to avoid unfair competition, but Rosoboronexport’s position is that re-export rights is a government decision with no manufacturer input. RIA Novosti adds that:

“A Russian aircraft industry source said the FC-1 is inferior to MiG-29 in performance, but sells for about $10 million, while the price of a MiG-29 is about $35 mln. MiG-29s are currently competing with FC-1s in an Egyptian tender on the delivery of 32 fighters. In addition, Egypt has launched negotiations with Pakistan on the licensed production of FC-1 aircraft. Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC) approved the re-export of RD-93 engines to Egypt as part of the FC-1 fighter package in November 2007.”

Feb 18/10: 1st squadron. The first squadron of JF-17 Thunder aircraft is formally indicted into Pakistan’s Air Force by Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Rao Qamar Suleman. DAWN.

1999 – 2009

From MoU through test aircraft, 8 initial planes, and an order for 42; Russia OK’s engines to allow the program to proceed; 1st locally-built JF-17 rolls out; Export loss in Myanmar. Lift-off?
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Dec 23/09: Myanmar. Myanmar (ex-Burma) reportedly buys 20 MiG-29s from Russia, preferring them over Chinese options that are said to have included the JF-17/ FC-1. Read “More MiG-29s for Myanmar.”

Myanmar loss

Nov 23/09: Industrial. The first JF-17 Thunder built at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) at Kamra rolls out. The rest of the order is expected to undergo final assembly at by PAC Kamra within the next 3 years. Associated Press of Pakistan | DAWN | Pakistan’s Daily Times | Pakistan’s The Nation | Pakistan Times | SANA News || Chandigarh Tribune | Press Trust of India | China’s Xinhua.

March 7/09: +42. The Associated Press of Pakistan reports that a contract for 42 co-produced JF-17s has been signed in Islamabad by China’s CATIC and the Pakistani Air Force, financed by “seller’s credit.” Production capacity is listed at 15 aircraft in the first year, rising to 30 aircraft per year thereafter.

Pakistan has been flying 8 aircraft to work out tactics, techniques, and procedures, and expects to stand up the first JF-17 squadron before the end of 2009. The aircraft will be based at Peshawar, alongside existing Chinese-made Q-5/A-5C “Fantan” fighters that are a hugely modified Chinese derivative of the MiG-19, and their accompanying JJ-6/FT-6 MiG-19 trainers.

The article adds a quote from Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mehmood Ahmed. He reiterated that cooperation on China’s canard-winged J-10/FC-20 is also progressing, with first deliveries to Pakistan expected in 2014-15. CATIC’s President MA Zhiping reportedly added that the first FC-20 aircraft built under that agreement would fly in 2009. APP | Pakistan’s The News.

42 JF-17 Block I

Jan 1/09: Industrial. Associated Press of Pakistan quotes Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) chairman Air Marshal Khalid Chaudhry HI (M) T Bt re: the JF-17 project, and PAC’s work more generally. The report was triggered by briefings associated with a visit from Sheikh Aftab Ahmad, head of the Standing Committee of the National Assembly on Defence Production. Air Marshal Chadhry reportedly said that PAC has the capability to manufacture 75% of the JF-17’s avionics, and 58% of its air frame.

The firm is currently deepening its experience and earning revenue by overhauling about 180 aircraft engines and 60 aircraft per year, including work undertaken by PAC’s Mirage rebuild factory that helps maintain Pakistan’s aged Mirage III/V fighters, and refurbishes scrap Mirages from other countries in order to keep overall fleet numbers up. High-tech avionics machinery recently imported “from various developed countries” is extending PAC’s capacity, and so has a $15 million contract from Boeing for aircraft parts.

Nov 28/08: Exports. Pakistani Ministry of Defence Production Secretary Shahid Siddiq Tirmizi claims that as many as 8 countries have shown interest in buying the JF-17 Thunder fighter. Azerbaijan, Sudan, and Zimbabwe are 3 countries that have been linked to export interest in the past. The News International.

A Pakistan Defense article widens that potential field to include Algeria, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka.

Nov 20/08: Pakistani Chief of Air Staff ACM(Air Chief Marshal) Tanvir Mahmood Ahmad says that aid the first JF-17 squadron would be inducted into the PAF fleet in the first quarter of 2009.

His accompanying announcement that another 36 high-tech combat aircraft (FC-20, probably a version of China’s J-10) would be inducted into the PAF fleet by 2010 got even more attention, but that didn’t come to pass. Pakistan Daily | Pak Tribune.

April 11/08: Exports. Jane’s Defence Weekly reports that:

“Pakistan and China have established a joint marketing organisation to promote international sales of their JF-17 ‘Thunder’ fighter aircraft, the head of the main Pakistani arms export agency has told Jane’s. Major General Muhammad Farooq, director general of Pakistan’s Defence Export Promotion Organisation (DEPO), described the JF-17 in early April as an ideal “choice for countries which are mindful of their finances.”

March 19/08: An article in Pakistan Defence claims that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) now has 8 JF-17 Thunder aircraft, after 6 more planes were received this March. All 8 will be used for testing and evaluation; the aircraft hasn’t been formally inducted into service yet.

Serial production has begun, and Pakistan’s Air Cheif Marshal reportedly said that about 60% of the airframe and 80% of the avionics would be manufactured in Pakistan by 2010, with production capacity rising to 25 aircraft per year by 2011. If true, it seems likely that deals with significant industrial offsets may be in the cards, as the article also claims that negotiations have begun with British, Italian, and French defense firms over potential avionics and other systems; France has reportedly offered its RC-400 radar and MBDA MICA missile.

Finally, the article claims that that:

“Thirteen countries have so far expressed interest in purchasing the JF-17 aircraft are Azerbaijan, Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Algeria and Sudan.”

Jan 22/08: Industrial. According to India Defence, Pakistan’s national TV reports that it has begun in-country manufacturing of the JF-17 fighter. About half of the on-board equipment and avionics will be manufactured in Kamra, Pakistan, with the rest coming from China.

PakAF Chief of Air Staff Ahmed reportedly committed to 15 aircraft built in 2008 and 20 in 2009, with the goal of building 25-30 per year.

FC-1/ JF-17
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Nov 29/07: Exports. The IWPA reports that:

“Azerbaijan is currently negotiating with Pakistan for the purchase of 24 Chinese-made JF-17 Thunder combat planes, worth between 16 and 18 million dollars each.”

In February 2009, however, Azerbaijan’s APA files a report that says the parties are still in talks, rather than under contract.

Nov 13/07: Jane’s Defense Weekly quotes Pakistani Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed as saying that the Pakistan Air Force will have an operational capability with JF-17 Thunder light fighter aircraft by the end of 2008, and expects to have its first 8 aircraft under a “small batch order” within the next few months.

“Speaking to Jane’s at the Dubai Air Show on 12 November, ACM Ahmed dismissed concerns over the Russian RD-93 engine that powers the joint Sino-Pakistan aircraft as “an issue created from here and there.”

April 26/07: Engine OK. India may need to hold that champagne, in the wake of recent reports. India Defence relays a report from the Russian newspaper Kommersant, which said that Vladimir Putin himself had personally supervised and signed a “Sino-Russian Fighter Assembly Agreement” which included joint assembly of JF-17 fighter aircraft with RD-93 engines, and their supply to third countries. Kommersant added that:

“This permission will enable the supply of 150 Chinese JF-17 fighter aircrafts to Pakistan, and help implement the contract for the supply of Russian engines worth USD 238 million.”

Kommersant added that “the permission does not imply Pakistan’s inclusion in the list of countries with which Russia has direct military-technical cooperation.” The question is whether Russian military-technical cooperation would be required under the Sino-Russian agreement. Meanwhile, the Indians appear to have been blindsided. The Press Counsellor of the Indian Embassy in Moscow Ramesh Chandra told Kommersant that “the Embassy was not aware” of the permission for re-export. See India Defence | India’s domain-b.

Russia OKs engines

March 29/07: Program. Pakistan’s The News International references an interview that Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mehmood Ahmed gves to Jane’s:

“The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) aims to acquire 200-250 JF-17 Thunder (FC-1) fighter aircraft in place of the 150 originally envisaged, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mehmood Ahmed has said… According to Jane’s Russian sources had initially said emphatically, that the RD-93 engines… could not be re-exported to Pakistan. This position was reversed in November 2006… during a joint [Klimov/ Chengdu] press briefing at the Zhuhai Air Show in China… Pakistani sources claim they have a clear understanding from Chinese authorities that there will be no Russian effort to block the supply of the RD-93 engines to Pakistan. “The Chinese have told us the Russians haven’t issued a written licence but the Russians will not block the supply of the RD-93 to Pakistan,” one senior Pakistani government official told Jane’s.”

March 2/07: Delivery. China delivers a pair of JF-17 fighters equipped with Russian-made RD-93 engines to Pakistan, prompting Indian protests that claim a violation of the end-user agreement between Russia and China. The aircraft were officially presented on March 12/07, and made their first public appearance during the Pakistan Day Parade on March 23/07. Scramble.

April 28/06: Testing. PT-04 makes its first flight with fully operational avionics. Source.

April 2004: Testing. Second prototype flies, though some sources contend that the aircraft in question was PT-03 instead. A total of 4 aircraft were manufactured for flight testing, while PT-05 was designed for static fatigue testing on the ground. APP | Wikipedia.

Aug 25/03: Testing. First prototype aircraft flies. Source.

July 1/03: First prototype completes first taxi trials. Source.

May 13/03: First prototype aircraft rolled out. Source.

1st prototype

September 2001: The FC-1/JF-17’s detailed design is finalized. Source.

1999: MoU. China and Pakistan agreed on 50-50 joint development of the FC-1/Super 7.

Development MoU

Additional Readings Background: JF-17 Thunder

• Pakistan Aeronautical Complex Kamra – JF-17 Aircraft. See also Avionics Systems Co-produced Projects.

• Sino Defence – FC-1/JF-17 Multirole Fighter Aircraft.

• Wikipedia – JF-17 Thunder.

• GlobalSecurity – FC-1 “Chao Qi” / JF-17 Thunder. The Chinese name translates as “Fierce Dragon.”

• GlobalSecurity – JF-17 Thunder.

• JF-17.com. Not an official site.

Background: Aircraft Ancillaries

• Klimov – RD-33 Family. Of which the RD-93 engine is one.

• Selex Galileo – Selex Galileo’s Grifo. The firm is a Finmeccanica subsidiary. While their material has said in the past that their Grifo S7 radar would equip the JF-17, that role seems to have gone to the Chinese.

• Sino Defence – PiLi-12 Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile.

• Sino Defence – PiLi-5 Short-Range Air-to-Air Missile. The PAF reportedly uses the PL-5E II.

• Sino Defence – LeiShi-6 Precision Guided Glide Bomb.

• Global Security – C-802 / YJ-2 / Ying Ji-802 / CSS-C-8 / SACCADE/ C-8xx / YJ-22 / YJ-82.

• Sino Defence – KongDi-88 (C-802KD) Air-Launched Land-Attack Cruise Missile. Developed from the YJ-82/C802 anti-ship missile.

• PAF Wallpapers (Oct 15/12) – JF-17 Thunder’s Weapon load. Incl. configurations, with pictures.

Background: Other

• DID – $5.1B Proposed in Sales, Upgrades, Weapons for Pakistan’s F-16s. The JF-17’s counterpart in the PAF. Current commitments are for 63 F-16 C/Ds, all at or near Block 52 standard.

Javelin, firing
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The FGM-148 Javelin missile system aimed to solve 2 key problems experienced by American forces. One was a series of disastrous experiences in Vietnam, trying to use 66mm M72 LAW rockets against old Soviet tanks. A number of replacement options like the Mk 153 SMAW and the AT4/M136 spun out of that effort in the 1980s, but it wasn’t until electronics had miniaturized for several more cycles that it became possible to solve the next big problem: the need for soldiers to remain exposed to enemy fire while guiding anti-tank missiles to their targets.

Javelin solves both of those problems at once, offering a heavy fire-and-forget missile that will reliably destroy any enemy armored vehicle, and many fortifications as well. While armored threats are less pressing these days, the need to destroy fortified outposts and rooms in buildings remains. Indeed, one of the lessons from both sides of the 2006 war in Lebanon has been the infantry’s use of guided missiles as a form of precision artillery fire. Javelin isn’t an ideal candidate for that latter role, due to its high cost-per-unit; nevertheless, it has often been used this way. Its performance in Iraq has revealed a clear niche on both low and high intensity battlefields, and led to rising popularity with American and international clients.

The Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missile System M47 Dragon
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Javelin’s development began in 1989 with a contract to develop a replacement for the M47 Dragon wire-guided anti-tank missile – a weapon that left its operator’s head and torso exposed to fire during the missile’s flight, and required a certain level of fine motor control. This was extremely dangerous for the operator, and of questionable effectiveness in genuine combat situations. The body’s survival-level fight or flight chemistry causes a lot of changes, one of which is a severe reduction in fine motor control under intense stress situations. Like, for instance, firing a missile whose flash and plume singles you out on the battlefield, then keeping your torso exposed for up to 10 loooong seconds while enemy machine gunners etc. zero in and try to cut you in two.

Unlike its predecessor, Javelin is be a fire and forget weapon. Its advertised 2.5 km/ 1.5 mile effective range is shorter than some other anti-tank systems, but remains more than double the M47 Dragon’s. Javelin’s cooled imaging infrared (IIR) guidance system can take 30 seconds or more to reach required temperatures for combat use, but once the sensor is ready, it will lock on to a heat emission ‘picture’ in order to hit vehicles, designated spots on the ground, or even helicopters. The operator can choose between top attack against an armored vehicle’s weakest protection, or direct fire, and the missile’s 8.4 kg/ 18.5 pound dual warhead design will defeat even reactive explosive armor protection. Its last key feature is called “soft launch capability,” which is milspeak for “you can launch the missile from inside a building without barbecuing yourself and your squad.”

Javelin fire team
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Javelin technically consists of 2 parts. The 26-pound, 80,000+ Javelin missile comes in ready-to-fire tubes. These tubes are attached to the 14-pound, $125,000+ Command Launch Unit (CLU), which contains the weapons optics, electronics, and sensors. The CLU also contains a quiet innovation: embedded training that allows operators to train and qualify through multiple scenarios, using the same equipment they’ll use in the field, but without firing a live missile. While some live-fire is required for truly effective training, the expense of weapons like TOW and Javelin has traditionally limited training and practice to unacceptably low levels – one live firing per year for “trained” crews is not uncommon. Using an embedded virtual training option helps to alleviate this problem.

The Block 1 CLU makes 2 critical improvements: an increase in lethal range to about 3.45 km/ 2.1 miles thanks to improved sensors, and doubled battery life.

The Block 1 missile adds an improved rocket motor that shortens flight time, software enhancements, and an enhanced performance warhead.

The entire Javelin system weighs about 49 pounds, plus about 5 pounds each for spare BA5590 lithium batteries. Each battery lasts up to 4 hours, and 5-10 batteries is a normal range for mission loads.

Adding “Javelin Vehicle Launcher” (JVL) electronics can make the missile compatible with remote weapon systems, which let crews use a machine gun and advanced day/night sensors from inside the vehicle. So far, integration has taken place with Kongsberg’s Protector RWS system, which has a leading position in the international market as the US Army’s standard.

Javelin ATGM: The Program Javelin missile: fire!
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The JAVELIN Joint Venture was formed by 2 firms. Texas Instruments (now Raytheon Missile Systems) of Dallas, TX is responsible for the Command Launch Unit (CLU), missile guidance electronic unit, system software, and system engineering management. Lockheed Martin Electronics and Missiles (now Missiles and Fire Control), of Orlando, FL is responsible for the missile seeker, missile engineering and assembly. Other key subcontractors include ATK (missile tube), BAE systems (British version’s missile seeker), and DRS (thermal sensors).

Production began in 1994, and the missile equipped its first unit in 1996. initial reliability issues resulted in some delays and additional testing, and full rate production was authorized in May 1997.

The Javelin Block 1 missile upgrade went into production in 2006, with successful qualification tests in 2007. It includes an improved rocket motor that offers more speed for less flight time, an enhanced warhead, improvements to the command launch unit (from 9x to 12x thermal magnification), and upgraded software.

The next step was once called Block 2, and is now called Increment II. it aimed to offer a major increase in range, improve the seeker, and add a multifunction warhead that’s better at killing enemies in the open. The FGM-148F missile will be paired with CLU Block 1 as part of that process, and future efforts will try to lighten the CLU without affecting performance.

These changes brought Javelin Increment II in line with a very attractive prize: the ATGM missile requirements in the USA’s $160+ billion Future Combat Systems meta-program. Even with FCS’ demise, the missiles remain positioned for FCS’ successor, or for future vehicle upgrades. The USA has test-fired Javelin from its CROWS-II remote-control weapon system (RWS), for instance, and Norway has conducted winter tests from a similar Kongsberg RWS. Operationally, it’s the French leading the way, via Javelin integration onto their VAB wheeled APCs.

Javelin may even find itself in naval roles. In 2013, it was successfully test-fired from the very compact and innovative Centurion launcher, which is able to equip vessels as small as patrol boats with decoy countermeasures, signaling, and short-range guided weapons.

Customers & Recent Budgets Excel
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Javelin received initial attention and interest from a few countries in its early years, but its successful use in Iraq from mid-2003 onward definitely gave its exports another push. Countries that have requested, bought and fielded Javelin systems now include: Australia (2002), the Czech Republic (2004), France (2010), Indonesia (2013), Ireland (2002), Jordan (2001, 2009, 2013, 2014), Lithuania (2001), New Zealand (2003, 2014), Norway (2005), Oman (2006 & 2012), Qatar (2014), Taiwan (2002 & 2008), the UAE (2008), the UK (2003), and the USA (original).

Sometimes the delay between an initial request and fielding can be surprisingly long. The UAE, for instance, ordered Javelins almost 4 years after their formal 2004 DSCA request. DSCA requests and national selections that have yet to result in publicly-announced contracts or fielding include Canada (2003 request), Bahrain (2006 request), Saudi Arabia (2010), Belgium (2012), and Estonia (2014). Georgia has also reportedly asked for Javelin systems, but there is no official announcement trail, and the outcome isn’t known.

India hasn’t filed a DSCA request, but its soldiers fired 9 Javelin missiles during their October 2009 Yudh Abhyas exercises with the U.S. Army’s visiting 2nd Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division. Technology transfer issues were turning India toward Javelin’s Spike competitor, and despite American efforts to fix that, India opted for the Spike family in October 2014.

Javelin ATGM: Reports from the Front UK Javelin, Iraq(click to read article)

The Javelin missile received very good reviews from the front lines during Operation Iraqi Freedom for its fire-and-forget accuracy and large explosions. Its role in the Battle of Debecka Pass in northern Iraq received particular attention. As Army Magazine notes:

“Debecka Pass basically had two Special Forces ‘A’ Teams facing a battalion-sized enemy force that had 12 tanks, 24 armored personnel carriers, three howitzers, a multiple rocket launcher, an anti-aircraft gun, 150 soldiers and probably another 18 to 20 light vehicles and trucks,” [Raytheon business development manager Roy] Adams said.

“The American force ended up destroying two tanks, eight personnel carriers and four cargo trucks. More important, they were able to hold off that enemy force until the 173rd Airborne Brigade could relieve them and assume ownership of that pass.”

He added, “One of the sergeants who was there said, ‘Without the Javelin weapon systems, 30 Americans never would have left that pass alive.’ “

See also Michael Yon’s May 7/07 article “Rattlesnake,” covering British forces near Basra, Iraq, as they plan and execute a counter-ambush trap using Javelin missiles in a prominent role. While any guided anti-armor missile down to a 1960s-era wire-guided AT-3 Sagger could have been substituted with similar results, note the C4SI (Command, Control, Communication, Computing, Surveillance & Intelligence) issues faced by British forces on the battlefield – issues any substitute weapon would also have to overcome.

Interestingly, the Javelin CLUs have also received rave reviews from the front lines. Their advanced optics and thermal imaging led to widespread and effective use as a day & night surveillance tool.

Javelin: Contracts & Key Events

Unless otherwise noted, all contracts are issued to the JAVELIN joint venture between Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, whose HQ is located in Orlando, FL. Given the proximity of Disney World’s “It’s a Small World After All” ride, Javelin employees have shown commendable restraint in their test venues.

Unless otherwise noted, all contracts are from the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command at Redstone Arsenal, AL.

FY 2014 – 2016

India firing
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December 22/15: The purchase of Javelin missiles and command launch units by Lithuania has been cleared by the US State Department in a deal worth $55 million. The acquisition includes 220 anti-tank missiles, 74 launch command units, 10 fly-to-buy missiles, and aims to help modernize the capabilities of the Lithuanian Army to participate in future NATO operations. Recent Russian military action in Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea in 2014 has resulted in neighboring countries increasing their defensive capabilities against any future Russian aggression.

Oct 31/14: Orders. An unfinalized $15.3 million contract foreign military sales contract modification will buy 74 Javelin Block I Missiles, 318 Battery Coolant Units, 22 Outdoor Trainer Instructor Stations, 22 Javelin Weapon System-Student Stations, and 44 tripods. They will be divided among the US Army and foreign customers, including Indonesia, Ireland, Jordan, Lithuania, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. $11.5 million is committed immediately, using FY 2010, 2011, and 2014 budgets plus FMS money.

This is part of a contract that runs until April 30/23. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ. Army Contracting Command, Redstone Arsenal (Missile), Redstone Arsenal, Alabama, is the contracting activity (W31P4Q-13-C-0129, PO 0012).

USA, Indonesia, Ireland, Jordan, Lithuania, Oman, Qatar, UAE

Oct 24/14: India. India’s top-level Defence Acquisition Council clears INR 900 billion in acquisitions. New submarines are the biggest, but there’s also clearance for up to INR 32 billion to buy and license-build about 300 Spike family launcher systems and 8,000 missiles.

Javelin may get a 2nd crack in future (q.v. Nov 11/13), but for now, RAFAEL’s Spike is India’s choice. See DID, “Spike Served: India’s New ATGM.”

Loss in India

Oct 7/14: Estonia. The US DSCA announces Estonia’s official export request for 120 Command Launch Units (CLU) with Integrated Day/Thermal Sight, 102 Battery Coolant Units, 350 Javelin Guided Missiles, 102 Missile Simulation Rounds (MSR), 16 Enhanced Performance Basic Skills Trainers (EPBST), spare and repair parts, rechargeable and non-rechargeable batteries, battery chargers and dischargers, support equipment, publications and technical data, personnel training and training equipment, and other U.S. Government and contractor support.

Estponia’s army, the Maavagi, has been using MBDA’s MILAN 2 and the wire-guided Israeli MAPATS, alongside a variety of shoulder-fired rockets. The Estonian Cabinet approved the military’s selection of Javelin in June, and a successful contract would make it their 1st fire-and-forget anti-tank missile.

The estimated cost is up to $55 million, and the principal contractors will be the Raytheon/ Lockheed Martin Javelin Joint Venture in Orlando, FL and Tucson, AZ. Sources: Us DSCA #14-54, “Estonia – Javelin Missiles” | Estonia’s Postimees, “Eesti kavatseb USA-lt osta tankitorjesusteemi”.

DSCA request: Estonia (350)

Sept 30/14: Contract. An unfinalized $84.3 million contract modification buys 534 Javelin Block 1 Missiles and 14 Javelin Command Launch Unit retrofits, divided among the US Army, USMC, and FMS customers Jordan and Qatar. $62.4 million is committed immediately, using FY 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2014 budgets on the US side.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, and the overall contract will end on Sept 30/23 (W31P4Q-13-C-0129, PO 0011).

USA, Jordan, Qatar

July 14/14: Contract. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel hosts Qatar’s Minister of State for Defense Affairs Hamad bin Ali al-Attiyah at the Pentagon, where they sign letters of offer and acceptance worth around $11 billion for AH-64E Apache helicopters, Patriot PAC-3 air and missile defense systems, and FGM-148 Javelin Block 1 anti-tank missiles (q.v. March 27/14).

As noted earlier, precise numbers and costs aren’t given, but Qatar’s DSCA export request (q.v. March 28/13) included up to 50 launch units and 500 missiles. Sources: Pentagon, “U.S., Qatar Sign Letters on $11 Billion in Helicopters, Defense Systems”.

Qatar order

July 3/14: Order. A $162.4 million firm-fixed-price contract modification will buy 570 Block 1 tactical missiles and 284 command launch unit (CLU) retrofits:

• 361 missiles and 137 CLU retrofits for the US Army
  
• 189 missiles and 147 CLU retrofits for the US Marine Corps
  
• 20 missiles for New Zealand and Jordan combined; both are existing customers

Work will be performed at Tucson, Arizona, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/14 (W31P4Q-13-C-0129, PO 0007).

USA, Jordan, New Zealand

March 27/14: Qatar. At DIMDEX 2014 in Doha, the Emirate announces $23 billion worth of military contracts, including Javelin missiles. Precise numbers and costs aren’t given, but their DSCA export request (q.v. March 28/13) included up to 50 launch units and 500 missiles. Sources: Al Defaiya, “Qatar Announces Big Defense Deals at DIMDEX 2014” | Arabian Aerospace, “Qatar in $23bn arms order including Apache and NH90 helicopters” | Reuters, “Qatar buys helicopters, missiles in $23 billion arms deals”.

March 4-11/14: Budgets. The US military slowly files its budget documents, detailing planned spending from FY 2014 – 2019. The FY15 order is a 44% cut in missiles ordered to 338, and that theme is repeated from 2015 – 2018.

Over that period, the difference between current projections and past expectations is $156.7 million, and 1,030 missiles. That cost-to-missile ratio may seem disproportionate with current buys. It is. Numbers cuts raise costs, from about $163,000 in the “Past Years” column of the Army’s detailed submission, to a listing of $229,000 per missile in FY15. This will rise to $273,000 per missile by FY19, unless foreign orders create enough scale to push costs back down again. Average cost of the foregone missiles from FY 2015 – 2018, using strict math? $152,136.

Note that the strict math approach isn’t strictly fair. Budgets have to work with actual costs, which can trigger a cycle. Other decisions or outside circumstances can raise costs, which may then force order reductions, which raises costs per unit again. We don’t have a concrete breakdown from within the program, but DoD’s FY15 guide to budgets by weapon system notes that:

“[FY15] Begins procurement of FGM-148F (F model) Javelin missiles with a new Multi-Purpose Warhead, which improves lethality against exposed personnel. Begins development of a lightweight CLU to reduce soldier burden and bulk.”

Centurion launcher
click for video

Dec 10/13: Javelin Naval. Raytheon announces that they’ve successfully fired a Javelin missile from Chemring’s multirole Centurion launcher, during testing at Britain’s Defence Training Estate on Salisbury Plain.

This is a big breakthrough for Javelin, which hasn’t had a naval niche. The Centurion’s extremely small cylindrical footprint, bolt-on installation, and optional stealthy enclosure make it an easy retrofit for vessels ranging from small patrol boats to aircraft carriers. With Javelins on board in a Centurion launcher, the ships would enhance their decoy options, while adding a useful options to kill small boats, or even overflying helicopters and UAVs. Guidance and tracking would need to happen through other systems on the ship, but if Raytheon can integrate one of its surveillance and targeting turrets as an option for ships without IRST/EOTS, that wouldn’t take up much space.

To date, Centurion had been tested as a launcher for mix-and-match 130mm – 170mm missile and torpedo decoys, flares, chaff, etc., but this is the first weapon firing. Raytheon intends to expand the system’s weapon options, though size considerations means that its Griffin-B missile is the only other option that really fits. With that said, there are tube-launched mini-UAVs… Sources: Chemring Centurion mini-site | Raytheon, “Raytheon, Chemring Group complete first live-fire test of CENTURION launcher”.

Nov 11/13: India. Indian defense minister AK Antony and the Defence Acquisition Council give Javelin an opening in India, by delaying any decision on INR 150 billion project to equip Indian military vehicles with 321 vehicle-mounted launchers and 8,356 of RAFAEL’s Spike missiles.

Raytheon had received the Indian Army’s 2010 RFP, but only RAFAEL responded. Europe’s MBDA, Russia’s Rosoboronexport, Raytheon, and General Dynamics reportedly balked at India’s technology-transfer requirements, and did not bid. Javelin needs the competition to be withdrawn and replaced by another RFP, in order to have a chance. At that point, Raytheon would need to choose between Javelin and TOW, and India’s own state-run firms may choose to offer a version of their problem-plagued Nag missile. There were indications that a full competition might be on offer back in March 2013, and the DAC’s non-decision leaves the situation very unclear.

Even if RAFAEL does win, however, Javelin is expected to remain a viable competitor for subsequent infantry buys. Sources: Times of India, “Antony defers decision on critical but controversial missile deals with Israel” | Defense News, “India Again Considers Buying Israeli-made ATGM” | Defense News, “India Pursues Indigenous ATGM Amid Javelin Talks” | Times of India, “Scam-wary Army calls off Israeli missile deal” (March 2013).

FY 2013

Orders: USA, Jordan, Indonesia; Requests from Indonesia, Oman & Qatar; India slipping away?; Long shot. Afghanistan
click for video

Sept 18/13: India. Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is visiting India for talks, which included the Javelin ATGM. Javelin was in danger of falling out of contention due to technology transfer issues, but a new proposal would replicate the PJ-10 BrahMos missile development model for the portable strike missile niche. With encouragement from the Pentagon, Raytheon and Lockheed Martin would co-produce Javelin in India, and would also include India as a development partner for the next iteration of the Javelin system. The response remains to be seen:

“DEPUTY SECRETARY CARTER: Well, India needs to take time to consider that. It’s an offer. It’s in the spirit of the [Defense Trade and Technology Initiative]. And we intend to do that, to develop many ideas, make many proposals…. We don’t have the history that Russia does here and we’re trying to replicate that, or overcome the fact that our defense technology and industrial system and the Indian defence and technology industrial system were segregated for many decades. Now destiny is bringing us together and we need to work to make those two systems mesh. That’s not automatic. They’re different. They have different histories, different bureaucracies and so forth, so it takes the leaders of our two defense industrial systems to help our companies do that.”

Sources: Pentagon, “Media Roundtable with Deputy Secretary of Defense Carter in Delhi, India”.

Sept 6/13: Order. A $67.7 million firm-fixed-price contract modification for 260 Javelin Block 1 rounds and command launch unit (CLU) retrofits for Jordan (q.v. Nov 30/09, May 22/13), Indonesia (q.v. Nov 19/12, May 22/13) and Oman (q.v. Nov 19/12).

A November 2013 release from the Javelin JV adds the US Army and USMC, and corrects this to a $176 million contract for 842 Block I Javelin missile rounds, plus 120 command launch units (CLUs) funded with US Special Defense Acquisition Funds. This exceeds even the May 22/13 and Sept 6/13 announcements put together.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, with the CLUs expected for delivery to the US Army beginning in October 2014. US Army Contracting Command, Missile at Redstone Arsenal, AL acts as the buyer and FMS agent to manage the contract (W31P4Q-13-C-0129, PO 0001). Sources: Pentagon, Raytheon, Nov 18/13 release.

USA, Indonesia, Jordan, Oman

May 22/13: Order. A firm-fixed-price, maximum $53.4 million contract for Javelin Block I Tactical Missile Rounds, on behalf of the US Army, US Marine Corps, and the governments of Jordan and Indonesia.

The USA is using a combination of FY 2010 and FY 2013 Procurement funds to pay for their share. Indonesia submitted an export request for up to 180 missiles on Nov 29/12, and they’re a new customer. In contrast, this is Jordan’s 3rd purchase. The US Army Contracting Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL manages the contract, and acts as Jordan and Indonesia’s agent (W31P4Q-13-C-0129).

USA, Jordan & Indonesia

March 28/13: Qatar. The US DSCA announces [PDF] Qatar’s official request to buy 500 Javelin Guided Missiles, 50 Command Launch Units (CLU), Battery Coolant Units, tripods, Missile Simulation Rounds (MSR), the Enhanced Performance Basic Skills Trainer (EPBST), the Javelin Weapon Effects Simulator (JAVWES); plus training, spare and repair parts, rechargeable and non-rechargeable batteries, battery chargers and dischargers, support equipment, publications and training equipment, and U.S. Government and contractor support.

The estimated cost is up to $122 million, but actual costs will depend on contract negotiations involving the Raytheon/Lockheed Martin Javelin Joint Venture. Implementation of this proposed sale won’t require any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives in Qatar.

Qatar request

Feb 6/13: 4,000m+? The Javelin Joint Venture touts the missile’s ability to engage targets out to 4,750 meters in US Army tests. That’s far beyond the 2,500m specification usually associated with the missile, but as Javelin Joint Venture president Duane Gooden notes, most militaries want at least 4,000m for vehicle-mounted missiles. The clear hope is that the test will open up a larger market for vehicle-mounted Javelins, which is just beginning to emerge (vid June 11/12, Dec 7/10 entries).

Asked for further clarification, Lockheed Martin representatives said that the tests at Eglin AFB, FL used standard Javelin Block I Command Launch Units and missiles. Gooden’s quote had included a caveat about “under favorable conditions,” and the firm explained that this meant avoiding conditions that reduce the effectiveness of the CLU and missile’s Focal Plane Arrays: “dust, snow, rain,” etc. Long-wave infrared usually penetrates those fairly well, compared to visible light, but apparently, there’s still some drop-off in total performance.

Many competing vehicle-fired missiles benefit from ongoing guidance using wires or datalinks, which can allow them to take advantage of heavier and better sensors. The Lock-On Before Launch, fire-and-forget Javelin will either need a datalink, or lock-on after launch mode plus some additional system algorithms, to put it on a truly even footing. Otherwise, it may still have export potential as a “4,000m+ best case” fire-and-forget option. Candidate platforms would include vehicles already mounting a compatible RWS with low integration costs, light vehicles that need to keep moving; and vehicles expected to serve in frequent urban fights, where long range is closer to 500 meters.

Competition: Spike
click for video

Nov 29/12: India. The Times of India reports that Israel’s Spike-MR missile may be about to elbow Javelin aside, because the Israelis are willing to transfer enough technology to allow production in India.

The Ministry wants to equip all 356 of its infantry battalions with an estimated 2,000 launchers and 24,000 missiles, produced by state-owned Bharat Dynamics. The Army reportedly wants to complete the induction of advanced 2.5 km range anti-tank guided missiles by the end of the 12th Plan (2017).

The US does make technology transfer offers to India, but Spike is eventually picked (q.v. Oct 24/14).

Nov 19/12: Oman. The US DSCA announces [PDF] the Government of Oman’s official request to buy up to 400 Javelin Guided Missiles, plus the Javelin Weapon Effects Simulator (JAVWES), missile containers, spare and repair parts, support equipment, personnel training and training equipment, publications and technical documentation, and other forms of US government and contractor support.

This is Oman’s 2nd DSCA request (q.v. July 28/06), and its estimated cost is up to $96 million. If both requests result in maximum orders, Oman would have 650 missiles and 30 CLUs.

The principal contractors will be the Raytheon/Lockheed Martin Javelin Joint Venture in Orlando, FL and Tucson, AZ. Implementation of this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to Oman.

Oman request

Nov 19/12: Indonesia. The US DSCA announces [PDF] the Government of Indonesia’s request to buy up to 180 Javelin Block I Javelin Missiles, 25 Command Launch Units (CLU), Missile Simulation Rounds (MSR), Battery Coolant Units (BCU), Enhanced Basic Skills Trainer, Weapon Effects Simulator, batteries, battery chargers, support equipment, spare and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment, and other forms of U.S. Government and contractor support. The estimated cost is up to $60 million.

The DSCA submits that “The acquisition of the Javelin system is part of the Indonesia Army’s overall military modernization program.” The principal contractors will be the Raytheon/Lockheed Martin Javelin Joint Venture in Orlando, FL and Tucson, AZ. Implementation of this proposed sale will not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to Indonesia.

Indonesia request

FY 2012

Javelin + RWS; France’s VAB Javelin APC; UAE follow-on request; Various orders. French VAB & US RG-31,
Afghanistan 2009
(click to read article)

Sept 23/12: India issues. India is absolutely interested in Javelin. Their soldiers fired some in 2009 joint exercises with American troops, and Defence Minister AK Antony said in August 2010 that a Letter of Request would be sent. So, why has no DSCA request been approved? India’s PTI explains that conditions regarding the secrecy of certain components are holding up an agreement. This isn’t the first time transfer of technology and proprietary designs have had an impact on US-Indian sales, and it won’t be the last. Raytheon will say only that:

“The Javelin JV stands ready to respond to all requests of the Indian government relating to the evaluation and procurement of the combat-proven missile while ensuring it adheres to a US and Indian governments’ agreement.”

If Javelin continues to hit roadblocks, Israel’s RAFAEL awaits with its popular Spike family of missiles, which go all the way up to the 25+ km Spike-NLOS / Tamuz.

Aug 6/12: Belgium request. The US DSCA announces [PDF] Belgium’s official request to buy 240 Block I Javelin Missiles, 60 Command Launch Units (CLU), Missile Simulation Rounds (MSR), Battery Coolant Units (BCU), support equipment, spare and repair parts, training, and U.S. Government and contractor support. The estimated cost is up to $88 million, but exact figures will depend on a negotiated contract.

The Belgian Army would use them to replace its existing MBDA MILAN anti-tank missiles. The Javelin Joint Venture (JJV) consortium would be the prime contractor, and implementation would require 6 U.S. Government or contractor representatives to travel to Belgium for a period of 2 weeks for equipment training.

Belgium request

June 19/12: France. At the Eurosatory 2012 show, French operators give the Javelin missile high marks for performance in the field, and the Javelin JV is in talks with 2 French firms to integrate Javelin with the BAE/Nexter CT40 turret. Nexter is the first firm, of course. Javelin integration would offer France a way to use their stock of Javelin missiles after they leave Afghanistan, though there has been no shortage of demand-stoking brushfire conflicts in recent years.

The longer-term issue for Javelin is that France intends to develop a competitive MMP anti-tank missile for their troops.

At the same time, Panhard General Defense is working with Lockheed Martin UK to develop its Sphinx medium 6×6 wheeled armored vehicle concept for France’s EBRC light tank competition. Lockheed Martin UK expects to leverage its turret work for the British FRES-SV and WCSP, which means that any integration work could eventually filter back to those British programs. Sources: Army Recognition, “Lockheed Martin at Eurosatory 2012”.

June 11/12: Javelin RWS. Lockheed Martin touts winter firings of Javelin missiles in Norway, launched from a Kongsberg Protector Remote Weapon Station (RWS) with Javelin Vehicle Launcher (JVL) electronics. Norway already owns and deploys Javelin, and the Norwegian Ministry of Defence sponsored the live fire demonstration in Rena, Norway. The 2 Javelin missiles scored 2 direct hits when fired from the Protector-JVL system on a Piranha V wheeled APC, striking targets 800 and 1650 meters away.

The move positions Norway’s Kongsberg to consolidate and grow its RWS market share among Javelin’s international customer base, by offering a system that lets vehicles of all sizes add both machine gun and anti-tank capabilities that are controlled from inside the vehicle. Norway is first off the blocks, as Javelin Joint Venture president Duane Gooden says that discussions are underway to deploy the Protector/Javelin combination on their vehicles. Ultimately, the largest buys of existing Protector and Javelin systems point to their biggest opportunity: the US Army, which has already conducted tests with its Kongsberg-build CROWS-II RWS (q.v. Dec 7/10).

April 13/12: Order. A $30.1 million firm-fixed-price contract modification buys Javelin missile Block 0 rounds, plus battery coolant units, student stations, instructor stations, and tripods. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, with an estimated completion date of March 31/15. One bid was solicited, with one bid received by U.S. Army Contracting Command in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W31P4Q-09-C-0376).

Feb 13/12: Retrofits. A $12.2 million firm-fixed-price contract modification will buy cost reduction initiative retrofits for the 2001BH tactical (missile) round and 3001AM command launch unit. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, and the contract will run to Dec 31/14. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received (W31P4Q-09-C-0376).

Jan 17/12: Order. A $6.7 million firm-fixed-price contract modification for Command Launch Unit retrofits, and missiles. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/14. One bid was solicited, with one bid received (W31P4Q-09-C-0376).

Jan 4/12: Australia support. A 5-year, $1.9 million Javelin Repair and Support Services contract for Australia. FBO.gov.

Jan 3/12: UAE support. A 5-year, $749,122 Javelin Repair and Support Services contract for the United Arab Emirates. FBO.gov.

Dec 16/11: UAE request. The US DSCA announces [PDF] the United Arab Emirates’ official request for another 260 Javelin missiles, plus containers, tripods, weapon simulators, enhanced basic skills trainers, training and other training equipment, rechargeable and non-rechargeable batteries, battery chargers and dischargers, battery coolant units, and other support equipment including spare and repair parts, publications and technical documentation, and U.S. Government and contractor support. The estimated cost is up to $60 million, but will depend on negotiations.

The UAE’s original DSCA request for Javelins was issued on Nov 17/04, and a July 2/08 contract finally began production. This DSCA request confirms that the UAE now has Javelin Anti-Tank missiles in its inventory, but numbers weren’t specified for the 2008 contract, and Raytheon would not discuss them. The DSCA request had mentioned 1,000 missiles and 100 CLUs. As before, the prime contractor would be the JAVELIN joint venture of Lockheed-Martin in Orlando, FL, partnered with Raytheon in Tucson, AZ.

UAE request

Nov 30/11: VAB Javelin. Renault Trucks touts their work integrating Javelin onto France’s 13-tonne VAB 4×4 wheeled APCs. The Javelin integration project was ordered on June 15/11 as an urgent operational requirement. Renault Trucks Defense designed, developed and tested an integration kit that allows 6 missiles, 2 firing posts and 2 tripods to be carried inside the VAB. The 10 kits were delivered Oct 14/11, and integration onto existing VAB Eryx vehicles is taking place in theater.

France has over 500 VABs in Afghanistan alone, and the vehicle is used by both regular forces and by the French Foreign Legion. MBDA’s Eryx is a shorter-range (0.6 vs. 2.5 km), wire-guided anti-armor missile that will still see widespread use by French forces, but Javelin’s range and guidance do make it a better option in an environment known for long-range infantry engagements. Each year, VAB improvements are made through a partnership between Renault, the DGA and the French Army Technical Department (STAT).

Nov 9/11: Order. A $97.8 million firm-fixed-price contract modification of an existing contract “to support the Javelin Hardware Program,” i.e. buy Javelin components. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ and Orlando, FL with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/14. One bid was solicited, with one bid received (W31P4Q-09-C-0376).

FY 2011

France orders; Saudi request; CROWS-II Javelin firing. So easy, even a
General can use it!
(click to play video)

June 14/11: Order. A $187 million contract for 715 rounds; 386 battery coolant units; 10 C-size authorized stockage lists; and 386 command launch unit retrofits. Inquiries confirmed this as a Javelin contract.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, and Orlando, FL, with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/14. One bid was solicited with one bid received (W31P4Q-09-C-0376).

Jan 12/11: Georgia. The Voice of Russia reports that Georgia has requested anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons from the USA, including Javelin missiles. Voice of Russia.

Georgia request

December 2010: France order confirmed. France is starting to train troops to use its Javelins, ordered earlier this year (vid. April 5/10 entry). DefenseNews reports that 1st batch of 4 simulator units were deemed in bad condition and refused by DGA.

France

Dec 7/10: CROWS-II integration. Raytheon announces:

“…the first Javelin missile firings from a Common Remote Operations Weapon Station II [DID: sensors and a machine gun mounted on vehicles, and controlled by a joystick and screen inside]. The station was mounted on a Stryker Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) in a near-tactical configuration. Three missiles impacted their targets at 500 and 1,000 meters (1,640 and 3,280 feet) downrange, confirming the successful integration of the Javelin into the CROWS II.”

Dec 3/10: Order. A $10.4 million firm-fixed-price contract, exercising contract options for Javelin hardware: command launch units, battery coolant units, retrofits and authorized stock list spares. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, with an estimated completion date of June 30/13 (W3IP4Q-09-C-0376).

Nov 18/10: Saudi request. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces Saudi Arabia’s official request [PDF] to buy 20 JAVELIN Command Launch Units (CLUs) with Integrated Day/Thermal Sights, 150 JAVELIN Guided Missiles, and 12 Buy-to-Fly test Missiles. The order also includes containers; missile simulation rounds; the Enhanced Producibility Basic Skills Trainer (EPBST); rechargeable and non-rechargeable batteries; battery dischargers, chargers, and coolant units; support equipment; spare and repair parts; publications and technical data; and other forms of U.S. Government and contractor support.

The prime contractors will be the Javelin Joint Venture of Raytheon in Tucson, AZ, and Lockheed Martin, in Orlando FL; and the contract is estimated at up to $71 million. Saudi Arabia currently does not have Javelin Anti-tank missiles in its inventory, but the DSCA says they will have no difficulty adding them, and implementation of this sale will not require the assignment of any U.S. Government or contractor representatives to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Unlike the requests made under the Saudis’ $60 billion set of requests in October 2010, this DSCA request does not mention what branch of the Saudi military this purchase is for. Defense Update says that:

“The Saudi Arabian Land Forces currently have about 1,000 obsolete Dragon anti-tank missiles which are due for replacement by the new Javelins. The new combined arms battalions fielded with the Royal Saudi National Guard could also be equipped with the new weapons.”

On the other hand, the Saudi Arabian National Guard recently bought wireless TOW-2A RF missiles. TOWs are heavier and can be fired by ground vehicles and helicopters, but the DSCA request was very large, and the TOW can also fill the same portable infantry niche that Javelin claims. Note that unlike the fire-and-forget Javelin, the BGM-71 TOW requires continuous guidance.

While most military branches would lean toward standardization, the Saudis have never been especially enamored of the concept. Javelins could supplement TOW missile in the National Guard, therefore, or they could be destined for Saudi Land Forces as a Dragon replacement. If so, this request is best seen as a precursor buy, allowing the Saudis to gain more direct experience before deciding on a larger order and full replacement. A 3rd option, especially given the low number of units, would involve a sale of these higher-end and more portable weapons to the Saudi Royal Guard.

Saudi request

Oct 13/10: Support. Lockheed Martin Corp. in Orlando, FL receives a $42.7 million firm-fixed-price contract, covering life cycle contractor support services for US Army and USMC Javelin hardware returned from the field for maintenance. The contract is technically issued on Sept 30/10, the last day of FY 2010.

Work is to be performed in Los Angeles, CA (40%), and Orlando, FL (60%), with an estimated completion date of Dec 30/15. One bid was solicited with one bid received. (W31P40-07-C-0154).

Oct 13/10: Order. Lockheed Martin Corp. in Orlando, FL receives a $48.8 million firm-fixed-price contract covering more US Army, US Marine Corps, and Foreign Military Sales under the FY 2009 Javelin hardware production requirement. The contract is technically issued on Sept 30/10, the last day of FY 2010.

Work is to be performed in Tucson, AZ (50%), and Orlando, FL (50%), with an estimated completion date of Oct 30/12. One bid was solicited with one bid received by U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command, AMSAM-AC-TM-H at Redstone Arsenal, AL (W31P4Q-0-C-0376).

FY 2009

British ship more to the front, order more; French win & request; Jordan request. Royal Marines,
Afghanistan
(click to view full)

Aug 12/10: Order. Lockheed Martin Corp. in Orlando, FL receives a $309 million firm-fixed-price contract for US Army, US Marine Corps, and Foreign Military Sales under the FY 2009 Javelin hardware production requirement.

Work is to be performed in Tucson, AZ (50%), and Orlando, FL (50%), with an estimated completion date of Oct 30/12. One bid was solicited with one bid received by U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command, AMSAM-AC-TM-H at Redstone Arsenal, AL (W31P4Q-0-C-0376).

July 19/10: US Order. Lockheed Martin Corp. in Orlando, FL receives a $96 million firm-fixed-price definitized letter contract to buy US Army and Marine Corps hardware requirements for the FY 2009-2011 Javelin hardware program.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (50%), and Orlando, FL (50%), with an estimated completion date of Sept 30/14. The missile has just 1 manufacturer; 1 bid was solicited with 1 bid received (W31P4Q-09-C-0376).

April 5/10: France. The US DSCA announces [PDF] France’s official request to buy 260 JAVELIN Anti-Tank Guided Missiles, 76 Command Launch Units with Integrated Day/Thermal Sight, plus missile containers, missile simulation rounds, the Enhanced Basic Skills Trainer, JAVELIN Weapon Effects Simulator Trainers, 2-level maintenance services, batteries, battery dischargers and chargers, battery coolant units, spare and repair parts, test and tool sets, personnel training and equipment, and other forms of US government and contractor support. The estimated cost is up to $69 million.

The prime contractor will be the Javelin Joint Venture between Raytheon in Tucson, AZ, and Lockheed Martin in Orlando, FL. There are no known offset agreements proposed in connection with this potential sale. Note that a DSCA request is not a contract, but it does pave the way for one.

France request

Feb 25/10: Order. Lockheed Martin Corp. in Orlando, FL received a $21 million firm-fixed-price contract for FY 2009-2011 hardware production of Javelin systems for Taiwan.

Work is to be performed in Tucson, AZ (50%, Raytheon), and Orlando, FL (50%, LM), with an estimated completion date of Jan 17/11. One bid was solicited with one bid received by Aviation & Missile Command Contracting Command, CCAM-TM-H in Redstone Arsenal, AL (W31P4Q-09-C-0376). See also Oct 3/08 entry.

Feb 22/10: France picks Javelin. French defense minister Hervé Morin announces that France will buy Javelin missiles, rather than the Eurospike family or MBDA’s Milan-ER variant. The current set of Milan missiles will be kept until 2015, and the ministerial investment committee has decided on an initial buy of 260 Javelin missiles and 76 launchers, which are expected to see use in Afghanistan. The expected cost is around $70 million, but negotiations will determine the final price and numbers. Raytheon representatives confirmed to DID that no Letter of Offer and Acceptance has been signed yet. Once it is signed, this deal will have 2 interesting points worth watching.

Javelin is widely used by American and British forces in Afghanistan, and France has just signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the UK, to allow joint purchases of military equipment for Urgent Operational Requirements. It will be interesting to see if France’s eventual contract becomes, in effect, a joint buy that benefits from Britain’s negotiated terms and volume discounts.

The second interesting question involves future opportunities. A larger future purchase of anti-tank missiles is expected to replace French Milan missile stocks more fully within the next few years. See also Oct 9/09 entry. Defense News.

Feb 1/10: The Pentagon releases its FY 2011 budget request, which includes $163.9 million for 715 Javelin missiles. While this continues full rate production, it is a sharp drop-off from previous years.

Dec 17/09: UK order. The Javelin Joint Venture announces a $176 million (about GBP 109 million) contract from the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense for more than 1,300 Javelin missile rounds and associated engineering support.

See the Nov 13/09 entry, which discusses a related internal transfer of Javelin rounds, and the way these missiles are being used in Afghanistan.

Britain

Nov 30/09: Jordan request. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Jordan’s official request to buy 162 more Javelin Command Launch Units (CLUs) with Integrated Day/ Thermal Sights, 1,808 more Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missiles, 18 Fly-to-Buy Missiles for testing, plus containers, missile simulation rounds, enhanced basic skills trainer (EPBST), rechargeable and non-rechargeable batteries, battery dischargers and chargers, and coolant units, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical data, and U.S. Government and contractor support. The estimated cost is $388 million.

“Jordan, which already has Javelin Anti-Tank missiles in its inventory, will have no difficulty absorbing these additional missiles.” The prime contractor will be the Javelin Joint Venture, and implementation of this proposed sale would not require the assignment of any additional U.S. Government or contractor representatives to Jordan.

Jordan request

Nov 13/09: UK. The UK Ministry of Defence announces that it’s sending an extra 1,300 Javelin missiles to Afghanistan to:

“…top up stocks… Troops in Afghanistan are using Javelin to blow up fortified enemy positions and mortar compounds. The system also provides an excellent 24-hour surveillance, target and acquisition capability for the troops… The missile can be fired from enclosed spaces, providing enhanced flexibility and protection for its crew.”

Sergeant Ross Jones, Royal Marines, from 42 Commando is quoted as saying that:

“If we are going to invest in these missiles it’s definitely a good idea – the amount that are being used and fired in theatre is phenomenal. They do save lives and anything that can do that is a good idea.”

That is so, but routinely using Javelins from beyond enemy engagement range, as a form of artillery, is a very expensive proposition that wastes most of the missiles’ capabilities. Much cheaper alternatives that could serve this front-line need are available on the global market – and might even be available in Britain via the RB57 NLAW, if that project is able to deliver.

Oct 9/09: France. France is reportedly considering an emergency buy of Javelin missiles for use in Afghanistan, though the Israeli-designed EuroSpike is also a reported contender. The estimated requirement is around 50-60 launchers and 300 missiles, with an estimated budget of EUR 70 million. All of these figures are subject to revision and negotiation, of course, and there are reports that the French Army evaluators preferred the cheaper Spike for its cost and faster delivery. Defense News | Liberation’s Secret Defense blog [in French].

See also Allbusiness August coverage of the wider man-potable anti-tank missile competition between MBDA’s Milan ER, the Lockheed/ Raytheon Javelin, and RAFAEL’s Spike/ EuroSpike.

Oct 6/09: Order. Raytheon and the Javelin joint venture announce a $214 million U.S. Army contract for Javelin missiles, command launch units (CLUs), and training and field support.

FY 2007 – 2008

UAE & Oman order; 5-year USAR support deal; Taiwan request; Block 1 missile qualified. Desert fire
(click to view full)

July 10/09: Support. Raytheon and the Javelin joint venture announce a new 5-year, 298.6 million contract from the US Army for life-cycle support. The Javelin Joint Venture will provide the U.S. Army with depot spares, repair support, training and data. The contract will be issued in stages over its lifetime, and the FY 2009 funded value is $34.9 million.

The Javelin JV’s support won an award in 2007 (q.v. Jan 17/07 entry), and VP Barry James proudly cites his team’s ability to coordinate shipments in and out of theater to the repair facility and back to the front line in a matter of days.

Dec 18/08: USMC upgrade. Raytheon announces a $29.9 million U.S. Marine Corps contract to upgrade 404 Javelin Block 0 command launch units to Block I. The upgrade will extend the detection, recognition and identification range of the CLUs but about 38%, while doubling the operating time. The joint venture team began the upgrade program in October 2008 and expects to have it completed by spring 2011.

Both changes will be welcome. Enemy forces in Iraq and Afghanistan are sing machine gun fire and mortars at ranges of 2.5 km/ 1.5 miles or more. Block I gives U.S. Marines the ability to employ the Javelin missile in riposte within that same effective range. Doubled operating time means fewer heavy batteries to carry, which will be equally welcome.

Oct 3/08: Taiwan. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Taiwan’s formal request to buy 182 more Javelin guided missile rounds and 20 command launch units, plus 40 missile simulation rounds, trainers, rechargeable and non-rechargeable batteries, support equipment, spare and repair parts, and other related elements of logistics support. The estimated cost is $47 million.

Implementation of this proposed sale will require a U.S. Government Quality Assurance Team consisting of 1 contractor and 2 U.S. Government representatives in country for 5 days to accomplish the initial deployment of the missiles. Taiwan won’t need more help than that, as they were one of the Javelin “fire and forget” missile’s early customers in 2002.

Taiwan request

Sept 4/08: Order. Raytheon announces a $111.6 million Javelin supplemental contract to produce additional missiles and command launch units. The joint venture expects to deliver the missiles and CLUs to the U.S. Army in the spring of 2011.

July 2/08: UAE & Oman order. A $101.4 million firm-fixed price contract for an award of foreign military sales (FMS) for missile rounds, command launch units, the enhanced producibility version of the basic skills trainer, battery coolant units, and 1 C-size authorized stockage list spare. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ, and Orlando, FL, and is expected to be complete by May 15/11. One bid was solicited on July 31/07 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

At the time, DID noted that Bahrain and Oman were the only new FMS request for the Javelin missile since 2006, adding that the announced value of their combined contracts would equal about $100 million. A July 29/08 release from Raytheon, however, said that the Javelin Joint Venture had “received a $115 million U.S. government contract to produce the Javelin anti-tank missile and command launch unit for the United Arab Emirates and Oman.”

Raytheon confirmed to DID that this is the UAE’s 1st contract for Javelin missiles, and Oman’s 2nd. The UAE’s Nov 17/04 DSCA request for Javelins (see entry) involved 1,000 missiles, 100 CLUs, etc. for an estimated value of $135 million. Oman’s July 28/06 request involved 250 missiles, 30 CLUs, etc., for an estimated value of $48 million (see entry); this is the 2nd installment of that request.

UAE & Oman

FY 2007 – 2008

UAE & Oman order; 5-year USAR support order; US support wins logistics award; Taiwan request; Block 1 missile qualified. UK Javelin, Afghanistan
(click to view full)

Aug 13/07: Australia order. A $5.3 million firm-fixed-price contract for tactical rounds (i.e. missiles) for Australia. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%), and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Oct. 31, 2009. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22, 2003 by the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command at Redstone Arsenal, AL (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

Australia

July 9/07: The Javelin JV receives a $172.2 million modification to their firm-fixed-price contract, exercising an option for Javelin FY 2007 production and remanufacture, and Command Launch Unit supplemental hardware.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%), and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Feb. 28, 2008. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22, 2003 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

Jan 17/07: Javelin Joint Venture Earns Logistics Award for Supporting the Warfighter. The Javelin Joint Venture Logistics Support Team receives the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency’s 2006 Defense Logistics Award for Contractor-Military Collaboration.

Jan 10/07: Block 1. Raytheon and Lockheed report successful qualification tests for the Block 1 Javelin missile at Redstone Arsenal, in Huntsville, AL. The Block 1 missile has an improved rocket motor that will reduce the missile’s time of flight; improvements to the command launch unit (CLU); software enhancements; and an enhanced performance warhead that increases Javelin’s lethality against a wider range of target sets. Raytheon release | Lockheed Martin release | Defense Update | Jane’s.

Javelin Block I qualified

FY 2006 and earlier

Bahrain request; Oman request; UAE request. Looks like OIF made a local impression. Javelin

Sept 6/06: Order. A $38.9 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for Javelin missile rounds and remanufactured rounds. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%), and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Feb. 28, 2008. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22, 2003 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

July 28/06: Oman request. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] Oman’s formal request for 250 Javelin missiles, 30 CLUs, simulators, plus required support involving trainers, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical data, personnel training and equipment, U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services, a Quality Assurance Team, and other related elements of logistics support. The estimated cost is $48 million.

The prime contractor would be the Raytheon/Lockheed-Martin JAVELIN Joint Venture in Orlando, FL. There are no known offset agreements proposed in connection with this potential sale, and implementation will require a U.S. Government Quality Assurance Team consisting of 1 contractor and 2 U.S. Government representatives to Oman for 1 week to assist in the delivery and deployment of the missiles. Several contractor and U.S. Government representatives will travel to Oman for 2-week visits twice annually, in order to participate in training, program management, and technical review. Se also Raytheon’s Jan 6/05 release, which covers the selection decision but predates the formal request.

Oman request

July 21/06: Bahrain request. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announces Bahrain’s request [PDF] for 180 Javelin anti-armor missile rounds (see MPEG video of Javelin firing) and 60 Javelin command launch units (CLUs), plus simulators, trainers, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical data, personnel training and equipment, U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services, Quality Assurance Team services, and other related elements of logistics support.

The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $42 million, and the prime contractor will be Raytheon/Lockheed-Martin JAVELIN Joint Venture. Bahrain is the base for the US 5th Fleet, and a close ally in the region.

Bahrain request

July 3/06: Order. A $17.2 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for the Javelin’s CLUs (Command Launch Units). Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%), and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Feb. 28, 2008. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22, 2003 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

Sept 21/05: Order. A $42.4 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for “Javelin CLU (901)/ EPBST (101) supplemental hardware definitization,” which means it settles up the final price for the July 5/05 contract at $110.1 million.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Feb 28/08. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22/03 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136). Note that EPBST = “enhanced producibility basic skills trainers.”

July 5/05: Order. a $67.7 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for “Javelin CLU (901)/ EPBST (101) Supplemental Hardware Quantities.” Work will be performed in Orlando, FL (40%), and Tucson, AZ (60%), and is expected to be complete by Sept 30/08. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22/03 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

May 11/05: USN Order. A $6.2 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for Javelin Weapon Systems Hardware for the US Navy. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Feb 28/08. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22/03 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

April 6/05: Order. A $128 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for Javelin Weapon System Hardware Procurement. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Feb 28/08. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22/03 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

Nov 17/04: UAE request. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces [PDF] the United Arab Emirates’ formal request for 100 Javelin command launch units and 1,000 missile rounds, plus simulators, trainers, support equipment, spare and repair parts, publications and technical data, personnel training and equipment; U.S. Government and contractor engineering and logistics personnel services, a Quality Assurance Team, and other related elements of logistics support. The estimated cost is $135 million.

Implementation will require the assignment of a U.S. Government Quality Assurance Team consisting of 2 U.S. Government personnel and 1 contractor representative to UAE for one week to assist in the delivery and deployment of the missiles. DSCA adds a tactical note:

“The desert warfare missions of the infantry and light armored forces of the UAE require the protection afforded by the capabilities of the JAVELIN system. The UAE land forces are small, well-rounded forces that are multi-mission oriented. JAVELIN will provide the forces with a credible anti-armor defense that is critical to success in the open desert.”

UAE request

June 25/04: Order. A $5.8 million firm-fixed-price contract for Javelin Weapon Systems Hardware. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by May 31/06. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 22/03 (W31P4Q-04-C-0136).

April 2/04: Support. A $6.4 million cost-plus-award-fee contract for engineering services for the Javelin weapon system. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by March 31/06. This was a sole source contract initiated on July 31/03 (W31P4Q-04-C-0092).

March 5/04: Order. A $49.7 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for 450 Javelin Tactical Rounds, 90 Command Launch Units, 120 Battery Coolant Units, 3 Cutaway Missiles, Spares, Tripod Trade Study, Special Tool Kit, Technical Instruction Manuals, Missile Product Description, Missile Description, Integrated Logistics Support (ILS)/Logistics Support Analysis/Provisioning, and an ILS Reports Database.

Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by March 31/06. This was a sole source contract initiated on Oct 29/99 (DAAH01-00-C-0108).

Feb 2/04: Support. An $18 million firm-fixed-price, cost reimbursable, and cost-plus-fixed-fee contract for life cycle contractor support for the JAVELIN weapon system. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by Jan 15/08. This was a sole source contract initiated on May 5/03 (W31P4Q-04-C-0046).

Jan 20/04: Order. A $10.5 million modification to a firm-fixed-price contract for 82 tactical rounds, 36 command launch units, 6 enhanced producibility basic skills trainers, 36 battery coolant units, 1 short round and spares. Work will be performed in Tucson, AZ (60%) and Orlando, FL (40%), and is expected to be complete by March 31/06. This was a sole source contract initiated on Oct 29/99 (DAAH01-00-C-0108).

Additional Readings

Readers with corrections, comments, or information to contribute are encouraged to contact DID’s Founding Editor, Joe Katzman. We understand the industry – you will only be publicly recognized if you tell us that it’s OK to do so.

DID thanks reader Trent Telenko for his assistance and tips.

• GlobalSecurity.org – Javelin Antitank Missile

• Army Technology – Javelin Anti-Armour Missile, USA

• USA Today – Javelin missile presentation & explanation (Flash format)

• DID – US Military Bringing a Switchblade to a Gun Fight. Miniature kamikaze drones with the equivalent of a 40mm grenade warhead. Won’t help you against a tank, but it’s just as good against enemy snipers or machine gun nests, and lots cheaper.

• Defense Update (May 2008) – Improving the Strykers. Note that “LAV-H” concept on display at IDGA Tactical Vehicles Summit 2008, which includes a Javelin missile mounted beside the machine gun on its Protector remote weapons station.

• Michael Yon (May 7/07) – Rattlesnake. Michael is becoming one of the best military journalists of this generation. Here he files a dispatch that covers British forces near Basra, Iraq, as they plan and execute a counter-ambush trap using Javelin missiles in a prominent role. While any guided anti-armor missile down to a 1960s-era wire-guided AT-3 Sagger could have been substituted with similar results, note the C4SI (Command, Control, Communication, Computing, Surveillance & Intelligence) issues faced by British forces on the battlefield – issues any substitute weapon would also have to overcome.

• US Army, Army Magazine via WayBack (June 1/06) – Soldier Armed. Reviews the Javelin’s development history, talks about the system’s utility on the battlefield and discusses planned future enhancements.

• Australian DoD Army Newspaper (December 2003) – Watch out, armour: First Javelin instructors qualify at School of Infantry. Covers training aspects.

Australian CH-47D:
Afghanistan, 2006
(click to view full)

In December 2005, Australia decided to upgrade its CH-47D Chinook fleet, in preparation for use on the front lines. Afghanistan’s high altitudes and sometimes-scorching temperatures reduce rotor lift. That made the Chinooks a far better choice than upgrading the ADF’s S-70 Black Hawk helicopters, whose reduced carrying capacity would limit their tactical uses. Those CH-47D Chinooks have gone on to play an important role in Afghanistan, amidst a general shortage of useful helicopters. Now, Australia seems determined to supplement its older CH-47D fleet with new and improved CH-47F models, which feature more modern electronics, uprated engines, and numerous other improvements.

The question was when the DSCA request would become an actual contract. That question has just been answered.

Contracts and Key Events Kandahar pickup
(click to view full)

December 22/15: New FMS Order. The US State Department has approved the sale of three CH-47F Chinook helicopters to Australia. The $180 million foreign military sale includes six Aircraft Turbine Engines and three Common Missile Warning Systems, as well as three Infrared Signature Suppression Systems and logistical support. Australia has ordered seven of the latest CH47F model to replace the existing CH-47Ds currently in service with the Royal Australian Air Force. Delivery is expected to be completed by 2017.

September 15/15: The Australian Army has taken delivery of a seventh CH-47F Chinook helicopter ahead of schedule, with this the final Chinook ordered through a $513.5 million contract with the US Army Security Assistance Command in 2010, along with simulators and spares. The Australian government first requested the helicopters in April 2009. The Australian CH-47Fs are US-configured models, which allowed Australia to take advantage of volume pricing when the $370 million manufacturing order was placed with Boeing in January 2012. The helicopters will operate from Queensland-based 5th Aviation Regiment, 16th Aviation Brigade, with Boeing’s Australian subsidiary set to provide maintenance support for the seven aircraft. A housing facility for the new Chinooks is also under construction, with this slated for completion by mid-2017.

Nov 14/14: Infrastructure. Australia’s government announces announces an A$ 54.8 million contract with Lend Lease Pty Ltd, who will build new facilities to house and support the Army’s CH-47F Chinook Helicopters at RAAF Base Townsville. Construction is expected to begin before the end of 2014, and be complete by mid 2017. Sources: Australia DoD, “Defence awards contract for new Chinook helicopter facilities in Townsville”.

July 18/14: Infrastructure. Australia’s government announces Parliamentary approval of a $54.8 million project for facilities at RAAFB Townsville, which will support the introduction and sustainment of the incoming 7 CH-47F Chinooks, and corresponding replacement of 6 CH-47Ds there.

Construction is expected to begin in late 2014 and be complete by mid 2017, supporting about 50 full-time jobs over the life of the project. Sources: Australia DoD, “Parliamentry Secretary to the Minister for Defence – Multi-million dollar Defence investment in Townsville”.

Jan 5/12: Contract. Boeing Co. in Ridley Park, PA receives a $370 million firm-fixed-price contract to “provide for the services in support of the bridge requirement for new CH-47 F model aircraft to support foreign military sales.” The English translation, based on responses to our inquiries, is that Australia and the UAE are buying 14 CH-47Fs (7/7 RAAF, 7/16 UAE) under the US Army contract, in order to benefit from its volume pricing.

Other CH-47F customers like Britain and Canada, who ordered heavily customized versions, can’t take advantage of that. Neither can Italy, who will produce the machines in-country under an agreement between Boeing and AgustaWestland.

Work will be performed in Ridley Park, PA, with an estimated completion date of June 30/16. One bid was solicited, with 1 bid received by the US Army Contracting Command at Redstone Arsenal, AL, on behalf of its Foreign Military Sale clients (W58RGZ-12-C-0010).

Australia: 7

May 20/10: Agency contract. Australia’s Defence Materiel Organisation (DMO) signs a contract with the US Army Security Assistance Command, at the Australian Embassy in Washington. The AUD$ 513.5 million (about $470 million) contract will buy 7 CH-47F Chinook helicopters, 2 Simulators, and associated spares. The first 2 aircraft are planned to enter service in 2014, with all 7 in service by 2017.

With respect to standardization, the helicopters will be delivered in American configuration. Greg Combet, the Minister for Defence Personnel, Materiel and Science, says that:

“Australian industry will have the opportunity to incorporate the Australian specific enhancements and to support the new helicopters as part of through-life support arrangements.”

Feb 25/10: Approved. The Australian Government gives second pass approval to “Project AIR 9000 Phase 5C” for 7 CH-47Fs, at a budget of AUD $755 million. This approves the plan’s details, but is not itself a contract. Australia expects to field the first 2 helicopters in 2014, with all 7 expected by 2017. The ministerial statement makes it clear that the 7 CH-47Fs would replace 5th Aviation Regiment, C squadron’s existing 6 CH-47Ds, would also be based in Townsville, and would be expected to serve until 2040.

Per the recommendations of past commissions like Australia’s famous Kinnaird Review, Senator Faulkner said the new aircraft will be procured and maintained in the same broad configuration as the United States Army CH-47Fs. Australia also promised to consider joining the USA’s Chinook Product Improvement Program as a way to keep those configurations aligned, “when information on this program is of second pass quality.” Having said all that, however, “The new Australian Chinooks will also receive some additional ADF-specific equipment to meet certain operational and safety requirements.”

2nd pass approval

July 1/09: Delay. Shephard Group reports that Australia may not place a contract order for the new CH-47Fs until 2012, and doesn’t expect to field them before 2016-2018. In the interim, Australia hopes to issue maintenance support tenders for its 6 existing CH-47Ds.

The original acquisition plan, approved by the Liberal Party government, would have bought 3 new-build CH-47Fs, and remanufactured existing CH-47Ds to CH-47F configuration. The new Defence Capability Plan, issued this day, revises the timeline and is silent on the balance between new and remanufactured aircraft.

April 13/09: Request. The USA’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency announces Australia’s official request for 7 CH-47F CHINOOK Helicopters with 14 (2 per aircraft) T55-GA-714A Turbine engines, 7 Dillon Aero M134D 7.62mm Miniguns, 16 AN/ARC-201D Single Channel Ground and Airborne Radios (SINCGARS), 7 Force XXI Battle Command Brigade and Below Blue Force Trackers (FBCB2/BFT), 2 spare T-55-GA-714A Turbine engines, plus mission equipment, communication and navigation equipment, ground support equipment, spare and repair parts, special tools and test equipment, technical data and publications, personnel training and training equipment, and support. The estimated cost is $560 million, but a DSCA request is not a contract.

The prime contractors will be: Boeing Integrated Defense Systems in St. Louis, MO (helicopters); Rockwell Collins in Cedar Rapids, IA (engines); and ITT in Fort Wayne, IN (radios). Implementation of this proposed sale will require the assignment of 2 contractor representatives to Australia for approximately 3 years, with about 6 U.S. Government personnel participating in program management and/or technical reviews in-country for 1-2 week intervals annually.

DSCA request: 7 CH-47Fs

The US Navy's Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower (CVN 69), also known as Ike, has successfully completed launch trials for the MK 234 Nulka countermeasure.

The US Department of Defense (DoD) has contracted Raytheon Missile Systems to supply Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IB missiles.

The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has transferred the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System (AAMDS) in Romania to the operational commander of the US 6th Fleet.

The French Navy's Charles de Gaulle (R 91) aircraft carrier has carried out its first mission against ISIS in the Arabian Gulf.

Le nombre de conseillers techniques et spéciaux du président de la république du Bénin, Dr Thomas Boni Yayi ne finit plus d’augmenter. Le chef de l’Etat semble en effet ne plus se lasser de nommer des conseillers.

Újabb hat hónappal hosszabbította meg az Oroszországgal szemben hozott gazdasági szankcióit az Európai Unió - tájékoztatott közleményében az ügyben hivatalosan dönteni jogosult, a tagállamok kormányait képviselő miniszteri tanács hétfőn. A büntetőintézkedések hatályának hat hónappal való meghosszabbításáról az EU-országok unióhoz akkreditált nagykövetei állapodtak meg az Európai Tanács kétnapos évzáró csúcstalálkozóját követően pénteken.

Újabb hat hónappal hosszabbította meg az Oroszországgal szemben hozott gazdasági szankcióit az Európai Unió - tájékoztatott közleményében az ügyben hivatalosan dönteni jogosult, a tagállamok kormányait képviselő miniszteri tanács hétfőn. A büntetőintézkedések hatályának hat hónappal való meghosszabbításáról az EU-országok unióhoz akkreditált nagykövetei állapodtak meg az Európai Tanács kétnapos évzáró csúcstalálkozóját követően pénteken.

Nem volt hatása a nukleáris biztonságra a Leningrádi Atomerőmű 2. blokkjában december 18-án történt üzemzavarnak - közölte a Roszatom orosz állami atomenergetikai konszern magyar kommunikációs partnere, a Kotimex PR, az oroszországi atomerőműveket üzemeltető Roszenergoatom konszern honlapján hétfőn megjelent hivatalos jelentésre hivatkozva.

Nem volt hatása a nukleáris biztonságra a Leningrádi Atomerőmű 2. blokkjában december 18-án történt üzemzavarnak - közölte a Roszatom orosz állami atomenergetikai konszern magyar kommunikációs partnere, a Kotimex PR, az oroszországi atomerőműveket üzemeltető Roszenergoatom konszern honlapján hétfőn megjelent hivatalos jelentésre hivatkozva.