Diplomacy & Crisis News

In another impassioned plea to the United Nations Security Council urging action to stop the bloodshed in war-ravaged Syria, the top UN humanitarian official stressed that since his last briefing to the body (on 29 September), 400 more Syrians had been killed and close to 2,000 injured in eastern Aleppo.

Prior to a meeting today at the United Nations on sovereign debt restructuring, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) announced that in order to deal with sovereign debt crises – which are creating a growing threat to economic stability in many developing countries – the world is in need of new ways to tackle the problem.

“Tremendous” efforts and increased investments are expected from countries and international organizations in order to improve national statistical capacities in achieving the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, including the Zero Hunger target, José Graziano da Silva, the Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said today in Rome.

(Own report) - According to a documentation, at least 300 civilians have been killed in Syria during US led Anti-IS Coalition airstrikes - with the involvement of German soldiers. The human rights organization Amnesty International presented the documentation on eleven of these air raids yesterday. The total number of civilian casualties caused by the airstrikes since the war on IS was launched in September 2014, can be expected to be much higher - up to 1200, according to observers. And this does not even include the number of casualties from western raids on Iraq, or the casualties that can be expected during neither the recapture of Mosul that has recently been started nor the forthcoming recapture of Raqqa. The German military is involved in preparing these airstrikes with reconnaissance flights and in-flight refueling. Whereas German politicians are reacting with indignation to casualties in East Aleppo from Russian airstrikes and calling for sanctions, no such demands are raised regarding the western Anti-IS Coalition.

In a near unanimous action, the United Nations General Assembly today adopted a resolution underlining the need to end to the economic, commercial and financial embargo imposed by the United States against Cuba, while also welcoming progress in the relations between the two countries.

The Russian president has sown confusion and conflict around the world the past two years. But his short-sighted meddling isn’t the work of a mastermind.

United Nations human rights expert Ikponwosa Ero called upon government representatives gathered in New York for the General Assembly to take swift action to end a growing problem of violence and severe discrimination against people with albinism.

“You didn’t see me whining after I lost the rigged 1960 election, did you?” asks the ghost of the 37th president.

Thai mourners are gathering to say goodbye to their king. But they're also leaving behind piles of trash.

The final battles of the fight for the White House, from swing state Nevada to Trump's hotel in Washington, from the Iran deal to intervention in Syria.

Goldman says data doesn't support Trump's claim that he can pull off an upset like Britain's decision to leave the EU.

With three African countries giving notice that they intend to abandon the ICC, a coordinated exodus might soon be coming.

From Florida resorts to Washington hotels, Trump’s focus on his businesses in the election’s crucial final weeks signals he’s already looking beyond Nov. 8.

The United States has dramatically stepped up attacks on the caliphate’s oil production. But to win this battle, it’s going to have to go scorched earth.

One of the key problems of innovation, James Gleick notes in The Information, is that new things tend to be seen too much in the context of the old.

I read the new book, War Virgin, to see where fact separated from fiction.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Filipino Rodrigo Duterte ( The New York Times)

Intensified U.S.-Russian and U.S.-China rivalry is actually proving beneficial to several states as it increases their room for maneuver between the major powers and pushes them more toward a multi-vector foreign policy strategy. Unlike during the Cold War, where most states were either strictly aligned with one camp or the other, or non-aligned, these modern states have several features in common.

They are all: 1) U.S. allies, 2) situated at the geographical confluence of great power influence, 3) struggling with local nationalistic sentiment with respect to local great powers, and 4) eager to conclude trade and investment deals with these very same local great powers, particularly in energy and/or infrastructure. The Philippines, Japan, and Turkey are all case studies of this new phenomenon.

The Philippines

Recent attempts to portray the Philippines’ new President as a “strongman in the making” willing to “jump into bed with China” have been quite simplistic. Rather than making a full tilt towards China, the Philippines’ new foreign policy strategy is much more nuanced. The goal is to achieve more of an actual balance between the U.S. and China (as well as Japan and Russia). This approach will give the Philippines maximum flexibility to achieve its security objectives (U.S.), while simultaneously seeking new avenues of economic cooperation (China).

This strategy is a necessity not merely from a negotiating standpoint, but from an eternal geographic reality as well. In order to ensure that it will not be taken for granted by any party (not even its treaty ally, the U.S.), the Philippines needs to diversify its foreign policy “investment portfolio”. With respect to actual financial investment, the Philippines has chosen to take a level-headed approach to China after the recent favorable Hague South China Sea ruling. This has occurred despite widespread domestic opposition to China regarding its conflicting South China Sea claims.

The Philippines has used the court’s findings as a platform to begin negotiations with China, not end them. Economically, the Philippines is hungry for investment opportunities. Although the U.S. and, especially, Japan currently account for a sizable share of the Philippines’ inbound FDI portfolio, the Philippines is looking specifically at more infrastructure-related investment. Because of this, China’s traditional political conditions-free investment packages and its previous quick infrastructure investment turnaround times in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have made quite an impression on the Philippines. Lastly, the opportunity to be part of China’s OBOR initiative, specifically focused on infrastructure, is highly appealing as well.

Japan

Japan, the anchor of the U.S.’s re-balance to Asia to contain China, is currently in the midst of its most independent foreign policy stance in quite some time.  Japan, still considered a great power in its own right for historical reasons, feels the pressure of great power rivalry even more acutely than does the Philippines. This is because Japan is situated in Northeast Asia, home to China and Russia, both of whom have had their own historical issues with Japan.

From a security perspective, Japan still considers the U.S. to be the bedrock of its overall security portfolio. However, Japan also can not ignore the potential benefit of enlisting other great powers in its own bid to counter China. In South Asia, India fits this bill perfectly. In Northeast Asia, Russia would be extremely useful to Japan in creating some strategic uncertainty on China’s northern and northwestern frontiers. Japan sees this Russian benefit despite their ongoing dispute over the Kuril Islands and strong domestic nationalistic undercurrents in both the Japanese and Russian populations on this particular issue.

Crucial to resolving the Kuril Islands dispute, and actually signing a peace treaty with Russia, is increased economic cooperation between the two neighbors. Resource-hungry Japan and geographically-proximate resource-rich Russia are a match made in heaven. Because of U.S. and European sanctions, Russia is desperate for much-needed infrastructure investment and technical expertise to more fully develop the Russian Far East. Japan has displayed a willingness to explore this possibility despite the application of its own post-Ukraine sanctions on Russia, although these sanctions aren’t quite as severe as their American and European counterparts. Lastly, these economic maneuvers with Russia are given increased salience due to the uncertain future of actual TPP passage.

Turkey

Turkey, a U.S. NATO ally, nonetheless has its own calculus to follow in crafting a holistic foreign policy strategy. Like the Philippines and Japan, this is a necessity for Turkey as it sits at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East and Asia. This rich historical and unique geographical position has led to hostilities with Russia in the past, eventually leading to the Crimean War, and with Europe, eventually leading to World War I, and presently continuing uncertainty over eventual EU accession and Syrian refugee crisis resolution.

More recently, Turkey’s relations with Russia had taken a nosedive due to the shooting down of a Russian airplane near Syria. At the time, it was widely assumed that this incident would strengthen Turkish solidarity with the West with respect to Russia in the wake of U.S.-Russian hostilities. However, the recent coup attempt in Turkey has altered this calculus with Turkish suspicions that the U.S. might itself, in fact, have been behind the coup attempt. As a result, Russia and Turkey have temporarily put the aircraft incident behind them with Turkey pursuing more of a balanced diplomatic track between Russia and the West.

This reorientation, however, is not without its problems as Turkey and Russia both have competing visions over Syria’s future. Regardless, the two powers have not allowed these differences to impede potential economic cooperation, already faltering post-Ukraine sanctions and post-Russian aircraft incident. The Turkish Stream project, once thought to be dead because of past Russo-Turkish hostilities, is currently proceeding apace. Ukraine is referenced yet again, as the project would allow Russia to export more gas to Europe through Turkey, bypassing Ukraine in the process. Lastly, this rapprochement has occurred despite historical Russo-Turkish domestic grievances with respect to influence over the Black Sea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meet in Vladivostok (RT)

The post Increased Great Power Competition Changes Strategy of “Swing” Powers appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Written By Shehab Al Makahleh and Theodore Karasik

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the richest Arab nation and the home to Islam’s holiest sites, must feel under siege these days. Pressure is coming from many fronts, among them a costly war in Yemen, diplomatic tensions with the U.S. over a new law in which families of 9/11 victims can sue Saudis, and low oil prices that have lead to financial austerity. However, a little-reported debate over the future of a strain of Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi creed could be a tipping point that destabilizes the whole country.

A consortium of UAE and Egyptian interests meeting of all places in Grozny, Chechnya, is the front line of this new pressure point. They are there to discuss Wahhabism, a Saudi belief system that breeds Salafist terrorists from al-Qaeda to Islamic State. In this sense, the Grozny venue is significant. The Wahhabi creed in the Caucuses region seems to have undergone its own “reformation” in recent years.

Gone are the days of Chechnya being a terrorist outpost in the Russian Federation, attacking aviation, transportation, schools, hospitals, and theaters. A new strain of Wahhabism is now an integral part of the Kremlin’s current drive to make Chechnya, under Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, a shining example of Islam and politics working in unison for social and economic development.

Kadyrov’s pro-Russian government sees Grozny as a model for expunging takfiri (violent excommunication) thinking from Wahhabism. Benefitting from intelligence from the Chechen community in Arab countries, the Chechen president plays a role in helping Russia, Syria, and Jordan to target Chechen networks in the evaporating Islamic State.

In other words, a functional model of political Islam is being generated out of all places from Russia. With backing from Egypt and the UAE, this new model of political Islam based on moderate, politically-oriented Sufism is now at the center of the discussion on Wahhabism. Sufi teachings focus on the spiritual rather than the political side of religion and tend to interpret main religious principles, such as jihad, as spiritual matters that one must tame and guide along the path of goodness.

Discussing Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabist creed in such a public forum with the active support and participation of the greater Arab world is a direct challenge to the vulnerable House of Saud. In addition to its external pressures, the Kingdom has new leadership following the death of King Abdullah in 2015, and an uncertain succession plan. The country is trying to deploy an ambitious new agenda, including a National Transformation Program (NTP) and a massive “Vision 2030” plan advanced by the Deputy Crown Prince.

This is a delicate balancing act: Saudi is trying to accommodate its young population with reforms and development, while placating older conservatives as well as the Kingdom’s clerics, many of whom adhere to the strict Salafist doctrine.

To boot, Sufis make up a tiny minority of the Saudi population. Although Sufis in Saudis faced repression under the Al-Saud, since the mid-2000s a reconciliation between Wahhabi and Sufi clerics has helped the latter feel more included in Saudi society. Now, with Sufism seen as a guiding light against Wahhabist Salafism, Saudi Sufis might make themselves heard in new ways on social media against the Saudi clergy.

Because of a focus on Sufism emanating from Chechnya, the Kingdom faces another pressure point and an accelerated threat to its stability. Why Arab allies, in conjunction with Russia, would try to undermine Saudi Arabia is questionable. Relations between Sufis and adherents of other non-Sunni religions and sects is largely friendly. This fact is especially true given the deep-rooted idea of pluralism in Sufi eschatology in addition to diverse cultural norms, which makes Sufism more open to neighboring religions and cultures. For the Kingdom, this fact may be too much.

The Salafi-Jihadists of al-Qaeda and Daesh will see an opportunity to exploit this debate to their own ends. They know that if Saudi Arabia’s creed is being debated, then the Kingdom will be in a weakened position. Terrorist attacks against key targets to bring instability to Saudi Arabia will be a primary objective. This new debate on Wahhabism will only empower extremists, not neuter them.

Dr. Al Makahleh is the co-founder of Geostrategic Media and Dr. Karasik is senior advisor at Gulf State Analytics.

The post New Debate on Wahhabism Threatens Saudi Arabia appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ( Russia Insider)

U.S.-Russian great power rivalry has intensified in the Baltic and Black Sea regions, with the latest clash occurring in Syria. As was made clear at a recent Council on Foreign Relations symposium, this new conflict is different from the previous Cold War in that several of these theaters border Russia directly. What is overlooked, however, is the consequence this rivalry has on Russia’s Asia-Pacific borders.

Russia is Indispensable to Japan

U.S.-Russian hostilities have the potential to impact the U.S.’ re-balance to the region to counter China. Despite (or perhaps because of) this, Japan has renewed its own outreach efforts to Russia. These efforts have lessons for the U.S. with respect to overcoming unproductive rhetoric and soberly recognizing shared security interests in arguably the most important geopolitical region of the future.

With respect to the Asia-Pacific region, much news has recently focused on the Philippines’ apparent shift from the U.S. in order to improve relations with China. While these maneuvers certainly have the potential to impact U.S. strategy in the region vis-à-vis China, they pale in comparison to Japanese efforts to improve its own relations with Russia. In contrast to Filipino moves, which are very early in a new administration and still ambiguous, Japan has clearly shown a desire to improve Russo-Japanese relations steadily over the course of several years.

In a nutshell, Japan realizes the immense importance of Russia to its own efforts to balance China and it is not about to let U.S.-Russian hostilities stand in its way. Russia needs Japan as well in order to better balance China. Lastly, Russia craves Japanese investment and technical expertise to further develop the Russian Far East.

Recent U.S. efforts to diminish and portray Russia as merely a “regional power” are quite correct, but not nearly in the way originally imagined. A simple glance at a map shows the many regions Russia can impact and make life more or less difficult for the U.S. if it so chooses to do so. Japan, unlike the U.S., clearly recognizes this and, in turn, recognizes good Russian relations as crucial on geopolitical issues such as China and North Korea. Japan also recognizes good Russian relations as essential in its own quest to gain access to resources not only in the Russian Far East, but in both Central Asia and the Arctic as well.

Russian Signalling Needs To Be Listened To, Not Ignored

Compared to North Korea’s ceasefire with South Korea, a legacy of the Cold War, Japan’s technical state of war with Russia actually goes back further to World War II. Despite the lack of a formal peace treaty with Russia and the resultant 70+ plus years of “war”, Japan has been persistent in its efforts to resolve the Kuril Islands dispute.

As mentioned before, these efforts are given even more salience recently with the rise of China and the efforts of both Japan and the U.S. to counter this phenomenon. Despite nationalistic rhetoric from both public and private quarters in both countries, Russia and Japan have both been persistent in improving relations as they recognize this as crucial to improving their overall regional security and economic environment.

Russia has recently abrogated a series of nuclear treaties with the U.S. in the wake of the Syrian ceasefire collapse. These cancellations are but one of several Russian signals sent to the U.S. to indicate that continued U.S.-Russian hostilities in Ukraine and Syria can have unforeseen consequences globally.

With respect to the Asia-Pacific region specifically, these come in the wake of previous Russian signals sent by both air and sea which were meant to convey this very same message. The difference now is that the rate and weight of these new signals appears to be increasing, with the very latest being Russian overtures to Vietnam to reinstate its presence at Cam Ranh Bay, as well as increased Russian strategic bomber patrols near U.S. Pacific Ocean military bases.

Russian Tu-22M3 “Backfire” strategic bombers on patrol (Wikimedia Commons)

Currently, debate rages within the U.S. foreign policy establishment as to whether U.S.-Russian hostilities constitute a “new” or “old” Cold War. The case can indeed be made that it is a “new” Cold War, made infinitely more complex and dangerous than its predecessor due to increased multi-polarity and globalization.

What is clear, however, is that the patience and persistence shown by both Russia and Japan to improve relations may finally bear fruit. The U.S. and Russia should both keep this in mind, shed unproductive rhetoric (which may help win elections, but is not actually useful for much else), and realize that improved relations may take years, even decades. Mutual recognition of shared global security interests demands nothing less.

Video courtesy of The Council on Foreign Relations

The post The U.S. Can Learn From Japan’s Efforts To Improve Russian Relations appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Un phénomène que personne n'avait vraiment vu venir a beaucoup contribué au redressement économique de l'Islande : l'irruption des touristes. En 2010, le pays accueillait 486 000 visiteurs et l'office du tourisme en espérait 745 000 dans ses projections les plus optimistes pour 2020 (1). On devrait en dénombrer au moins 1,7 million en 2016, sans compter les 4,8 millions de passagers qui n'ont fait que transiter par l'aéroport international de Keflavík (2). En 2015, cette activité a représenté près du tiers des recettes d'exportation, soit davantage que les produits de la pêche (23 %) ou l'aluminium (20 %).

Les acteurs du secteur multiplient les anecdotes relatives à la surfréquentation de certains sites, en particulier dans le Sud-Est. Beaucoup commencent à redouter le nouvel essor de 26 % annoncé pour l'an prochain. « Nous avons vraiment besoin de freiner, de maîtriser cette croissance pour éviter d'être débordés par elle », explique Edward H. Huijbens, directeur du Centre de recherche sur le tourisme islandais de l'université d'Akureyri. « Qui doit construire les routes, les toilettes, et les entretenir ? Les petites municipalités n'en ont pas les moyens. Il est urgent d'introduire une taxe qui ralentirait cette expansion tout en permettant de financer les infrastructures nécessaires. »

Outre les problèmes d'hébergement et d'accès aux sites se pose la question de la main-d'œuvre : « Si nous continuons à ce rythme, estime cet universitaire, il faudra faire venir de dix mille à quinze mille travailleurs étrangers d'ici à 2020. Déjà, à Keflavík, la compagnie Icelandair a racheté des locaux de l'ancienne base américaine pour loger des Polonais employés à l'aéroport. Cet essor ne résulte pas d'une véritable politique ni d'une vision stratégique. Il serait temps d'en avoir une. »

Cas unique de terres émergées sur la dorsale qui sépare les plaques de l'Eurasie et de l'Amérique, l'île présente des formations géologiques étonnantes (failles, geysers, volcans, glaciers) et de vastes étendues sauvages. Mais l'attirance croissante pour la nature, voire « l'aventure », risque d'entrer en contradiction avec le tourisme de masse, qui finit par dégrader et même détruire ce qui a motivé son développement.

(1) « Tourism in Iceland in figures », office du tourisme d'Islande, février 2010, www.ferdamalastofa.is

(2) « Tourism in Iceland in figures », mai 2016.