Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Date: Mercredi 14 Septembre 2016Description: This debate was a private event for Institut Montaigne's members as part of a newly international cycle. A serie of discussions about international topics between foreign leading figures will be organised every month at the Institut Montaigne. « Great Britain, Europe and the world after Brexit. Views from London » with Robin Niblett, director, Chatham Houseand Nick Butler, professor, King’s CollegeThe discussion was chaired by Dominique Moïsi, senior counsellor of Institut MontaigneWhat does Brexit mean?Brexit caused two types of reactions: on the one hand, it was perceived as a deep shock not only for the United Kingdom itself, but also for the EU and democracy broadly speaking; on the other, it was argued that nothing really happened, as the United Kingdom never truly belonged in the EU. The coming EU summit in Bratislava will be a good opportunity to see which path the EU is about to take. It seems we find ourselves in a new “phoney war”, where things have started to change but where it is hard to know in which direction they are heading.Brexit should not be considered as a sign of hostility towards the EU and its Member States, rather it reveals hostility towards the European bureaucracy and Brussels. However, the referendum vote reveals a deep cleavage between the old and the young generations within the United Kingdom. The older one feels nostalgic about the UK’s glorious past as a world power and sees the European project as a failure: with no common security policy, no common approach to tackle the refugee crisis, and no economic results. What’s next? Four scenarios for the development of the relationship between the UK and the EU can be identified:1. The UK will pursue its development on its own, while the EU will do the same on its side.2. Brexit will in reality never come about because of its complexity and because of the administrative burden.3. The EU will adopt radical changes by breaking austerity, by becoming more independent from the German leadership, and by renouncing to the membership.4. The EU will change by integrating to the core with a truly efficient common parliament, a common defence policy and a more protectionist economic policy. At an international level, four risks result from Brexit:1. The Brexit referendum made populism legitimate and is reinforcing the development of populist parties across Europe with strong national leaders who focus on their people first (Putin and Erdogan being the model of this type of leader).2. The Transatlantic cooperation is in danger and is a matter of concern for the USA: how will it be able to manage without the United Kingdom in the EU? Will NATO be enough? Will it imply a rebalancing towards Asia? It is a clear momentum for international affairs.3. Brexit will create a loss in terms of reference points for the EU. Political leaders will be afraid of being bolder and this will lead to a rise of nationalism. Although UK was the “awkward partner”, it was very mobilised on global matters.4. In that troubled context, the challenge for the EU will be to act as a force of stability, while UK leaders will have to take their full responsibilities. Amongst the broader international problems Brexit reveals, the question of the coordination on regulation (TTIP), the fact that there will be more space for Russian mischief and that the scope for European enlargement becomes even more difficult are issues that need to be urgently addressed. However, at the end the UK cannot escape its geographical and strategic situation: the Churchillian dream is gone, the EU remains its first partner, and the Anglo-US relationship does not represent a real alternative. Various remarks  - A positive side from the Brexit could be the reinforcement of the French-German relationship, in defence and security policy in particular. Accordingly, the UK will have to think the EU more seriously and might end up feeling more European in the end. - In the next decade, the UK government will have to prove that leaving was the right choice. It will use trade deals to emphasize the EU as the counterpoint of non-success. However, when it comes to security, the UK will have to build an efficient cooperation with its European partners. - The great difficulty of Brexit is that the UK administration did not have a plan at all. It could take months until they find a coherent position to start the six negotiations that they will have to face:  1. The divorce negotiation (art.50)2. The negotiation of the future partnership with the EU.3. The transition towards this new partnership4. The negotiations to join the WTO5. The negotiations between the UK and its key partners6. The negotiations to cooperate with the EU regarding security and defence policy - In a way, the British people decided to vote « yes » to the question: can we be better alone than with the others? The answer history will give to this question will be of tremendous importance for the future of the EU Presentateurs vedettes: 

Zu lange habe Europa gezögert, in der Flüchtlingskrise seine Grenzen zu schützen. Davor hatte...

On 16 September 2016 The Economist made a particular reference to Professor Tsoukalis’ new book ‘In Defence of Europe’. You can read the article here.

Le 9 avril dernier, la présidente de la République de Lituanie, Dalia Grybauskaite, publiait un décret fixant les prochaines élections législatives aux 9 et 23 octobre prochain. La publication de ce texte constitue le coup d'envoi de la campagne électorale. 1 461 personnes réparties sur 14...

The UK’s EU referendum is making waves in the Nordic countries. The vote could give a boost to Euro-critical parties across the region. However, it seems unlikely that EU members Denmark, Finland and Sweden will head for the exit in the foreseeable future or that non-members Norway and Iceland will loosen their ties with the EU to any significant extent. Nonetheless, with the UK’s exit, the Nordic countries face the prospect of losing one of their key allies within the EU and will be compelled to rethink their positions in and towards the Union. There are already initial signs of adjustment – based on sometimes shared and sometimes divergent priorities. If the five countries are able to capitalise on their commonalities, Nordic cooperation in the context of an EU-27 may well gain traction.

Die Einführung eines europäischen Kurzarbeitergelds könnte die EU als Solidarunion sichtbar machen und damit langfristig den Weg für eine europäische Arbeitslosenversicherung ebnen, meint Peter Becker.

Die wirtschaftliche und politische Entwicklung Asiens zeitigt Chancen und Risiken. Auf der einen Seite wächst das Gewicht der Region in der Weltwirtschaft; auf der anderen Seite ist Asien durch komplexe sicherheitspolitische Herausforderungen in seinen verschiedenen Subregionen gekennzeichnet. Widerstreitende territoriale Ansprüche, Rivalitäten zwischen alten und neuen Großmächten verbunden mit dem Wettlauf um Ressourcen und Einfluss, militante Aufstandsbewegungen ethnischer und religiöser Gruppen sowie eine umfassende konventionelle und nukleare Aufrüstung ergeben unterschiedliche Konfliktkonstellationen in Nordostasien, Südostasien und in Südasien.

Der Band untersucht die verschiedenen Strategien Chinas, Indiens, Indonesiens, Russlands, Japans und der USA zur Verbesserung der regionalen Sicherheit.

Dieses Buch bestellen

Neben der Staatsduma, dem Unterhaus, werden eine Reihe von regionalen Parlamenten und Gouverneuren gewählt.

In vielen deutschen Städten hat die KAS für Demokratie geworben. In Bremen wurde ein Zeichen gegen Populismus und erstarkenden Extremismus gesetzt.

Monday, September 19, 1:15pm EST
Transforming Humanitarian Action
Speakers will focus on the implementation of the “Compact for Young People in Humanitarian Action,” as well as discuss the need to work for and with young people during all stages of humanitarian crises, in order to sufficiently respond to their needs.  Read more>>

Wednesday, September 21, 1:15pm EST
Pulling Together: The Multilateral System and Its Future
The Independent Commission on Multilateralism (ICM) final report builds on the multilateral achievements of 2015—including the adoption of the 2030 Agenda and the Paris Agreement—and takes into account the three UN peace and security reviews conducted in 2015 and the subsequent outcomes. Read more>>

Thursday, September 22, 8:15am EST
The UN70 Initiative: Launching a New Agenda for the Next Secretary-General
At this year’s Trygve Lie Symposium, government officials, including Foreign Ministers from the UN70 partner countries, will be discussing the priorities of the next UN Secretary-General, and how member states can best support her or him. Read more>>

Friday, September 23, 8:15am EST
The Road to Peace: Why the SDGs are Good for Business
This event examines how the private sector, the UN, and governments can work together to create viable economic opportunities that contribute to inclusive growth and build peaceful and inclusive societies. Read more>>

On Friday, September 23rd at 8:15am EST, IPI together with the SDG Fund are organizing a breakfast forum on business and peace in the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The event will offer different perspectives on how the private sector is actively engaging in the implementation of the SDGs, connecting the dots between the work of the UN and global leaders in the private sector. It will also offer insights on how the UN can engage the private sector more systematically to implement the 2030 Agenda.

IPI Live Event Feed

Businesses play an important role in advancing the SDGs and in promoting peace and preventing conflict. They can create new job opportunities and adopt hiring practices that ensure no discrimination on the basis of race, ethnicity, gender or religion. They can also support training and apprenticeship schemes to demobilize active combatants of armed forces, and support consumer awareness by including “conflict-free labels” in their products. These are just some examples of the links between business, the SDGs and the promotion of peace. This event will highlight the connection between all the goals and targets, particularly goal 16 (peaceful societies), goal 8 (economic growth and employment) and goal 17 (global partnership).

The breakfast meeting will focus on the following questions: Why are the SDGs good for business? How can the UN engage more systematically with global leaders in the private sector to advance the 2030 Agenda? How can the private sector, the UN, and governments work together to create viable economic opportunities that contribute to inclusive growth and build peaceful and inclusive societies?

Moderator:
Ambassador Terje Rod-Larsen, President of IPI

Panelists:
H.E. Ms. María Ángela Holguín, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Colombia (tbc)
H.E. Dr. Thani Ahmed Al Zeyoudi, Minister of Climate Change and the Environment for the United Arab Emirates
Dr. David Nabarro, Special Adviser for the 2030 Agenda and Climate Change
Mr. Tonye Cole, CEO and Founder Sahara Group
Ms. Paloma Durán, Director Sustainable Development Goals Fund

Entitled “Pulling Together: The Multilateral System and Its Future,” this is the final report of the Independent Commission on Multilateralism (ICM), an ambitious two-year project conducted by IPI. The report identifies how the UN-based multilateral system can be made more “fit for purpose” for twenty-first century challenges. It comes as a new secretary-general prepares to take office and the wider public contemplates how to sustain our fragile global order in the face of the great and turbulent changes confronting it.

The ICM was launched in September 2014, with former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as its chair and longtime Indian diplomat Hardeep Singh Puri as its secretary-general. In a highly consultative process, the ICM has involved more than 340 diplomats, UN officials, and civil society actors in retreats and meetings, and tens of thousands of people in person and online via public consultations.

The ICM’s final report suggests ten general principles to guide a revitalized multilateral system. It also makes concrete recommendations about how to address the specific challenges of our time across fifteen issue areas. This report will be followed by the release of fifteen issue-specific policy papers focused on each of these areas.

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Die amerikanisch-russischen Beziehungen haben nach wie vor zentrale Bedeutung für die europäische Sicherheitsordnung. Sie sind durch drei Spezifika geprägt: erstens durch eine Nukleargegnerschaft, die in der »strategischen Interdependenz« wechselseitiger Vernichtungsfähigkeit wurzelt; zweitens durch eine vergleichsweise geringe wirtschaftliche Verflechtung und drittens durch geopolitische Konkurrenz im postsowjetischen Raum. Die Besonderheiten der amerikanisch-russischen Beziehungen prägen auch den innenpolitisch-institutionellen Kontext von Washingtons Russland-Politik. Starke gesellschaftliche und wirtschaftliche Interessen an einer stabilen kooperativen Beziehung haben sich nicht herausbilden können. Vor allem im US-Kongress und dort insbesondere unter den Republikanern ist der Diskurs bedrohungsorientiert geblieben. Mittlerweile gilt ein wiedererstarkendes Russland zumindest aus Sicht der Militärplaner im Pentagon als potentieller Gegner in einer Zeit neu aufbrechender Großmachtkonflikte. Auf die russische Annexion der Krim und die anhaltende Ukraine-Krise hat die Obama-Administration auf eine Weise reagiert, die bei aller Entschiedenheit die Zusammenarbeit mit Moskau in globalen Fragen nicht gefährden sollte. Russland – Ähnliches gilt für China – beansprucht eine geopolitisch begründete Einflusssphäre. Dies läuft der liberalen Ordnungsvorstellung zuwider, die in den USA dominierend ist. Doch Washington wird mehr und mehr vor der Herausforderung stehen, entweder Einflusssphären zu akzeptieren – im Interesse globaler Kooperation und zur Vermeidung von Kriegsrisiken – oder aber Machtrivalitäten mit hohem Eskalationspotential voranzutreiben.

Getrennte Wege?

Aurora Bergmaier,