Diplomacy & Crisis News

Perhaps the most capable, most contributive fighter in US Navy history is the F/A-18 Hornet. The Hornet, which mostly replaced the iconic F-14 Tomcat, has been in service with the Navy since 1984. And thanks to frequent upgrades, the Hornet is still relevant and expected to remain in service for decades to come.

F/A-18 Hornet: A History

The F/A-18 Hornet is a twin-engine, supersonic, all-weather, multirole fighter; it can do a bit of everything – and has done a bit of everything, from air superiority, to air-to-ground, to reconnaissance.

But the vaunted jet was almost scrapped before ever entering service in the first place; the Air Force actually said ‘no’ to the F/A-18.

LWF

In the 1970s, the Air Force solicited bids for its Lightweight Fighter (LWF) program. The LWF was intended to “spur the development of an aircraft that satisfied the energy-maneuverability theory.”

“The energy-maneuverability theory,” I wrotenot too long ago, “can be distilled to one basic formula: Ps – V (T-D/W). Simply put, the formula reliably predicts aircraft performance. And those predictions indicated that excessive weight would have debilitating consequences on the maneuverability of an aircraft.” What the Air Force wanted, ultimately, was a jet capable of “fast transients,” or “quick changes in speed, altitude,  and direction. The result would be a superior fighter, capable of gaining or losing energy quickly, hence out-turning an opponent.”

Well, the prototype of the F/A-18, the YF-17, was entered in the LFW program – losing to the YF-16, which has since become the vaunted F-16 Fighting Falcon. The F-16 won on account of possessing “superior acceleration, endurance, turn rates, and climb rates relative to the YF-17.”

And yet, the Navy, who had observed the LFW competition, was drawn to the YF-17. The jet was clearly capable while featuring the two engines that the Navy then required (for the sake of redundancy during catapult-launcher carrier takeoffs).

Further, “the Navy didn’t need a pure air combat fighter, capable of out-turning everything else in the skies. So, the YF-17’s failure to keep pace with the YF-16 wasn’t disqualifying.” The Navy made some tweaks and the F/A-18 was the result.

Now, despite the F-16’s superior agility, the F/A-18 is entirely capable, thanks to an excellent thrust-to-weight ratio, a fly-by-wire system, and leading-edge extensions.

The Hornet’s wing was designed with a 20-degree sweep to the leading edge; meanwhile, the trailing edge is straight. The wing also features full-length leading edge flaps, whereas the trailing edge features full-length ailerons.

Adding to the F/A-18’s maneuverability are canted vertical stabilizers, oversized horizontal stabilizer, oversized trailing edge flaps. The end result is a jet capable of performing at high angles of attack.

F/A-18 Hornet: Why It Is So Respected

The F/A-18 was designed to be “easy to maintain.” Maintenance is especially difficult for carrier-based jets, where the open sea complicates logistics and storage. Accordingly, the Hornet has been a relief – especially relative to its predecessors, the F-14 and the A-6, which required much more maintenance than the Hornet. In fact, the Hornet’s mean time between failure is three times longer than any strike aircraft in the Navy inventory – and the Hornet requires just half the maintenance time.

In part, the Hornet’s robustness is owed to its engine design. The General Electric F404, two of which are onboard each Hornet, was designed to be reliable and easy to maintain. Even under adverse conditions, the F404 is resistant to stalling or flaming out. And when there is a problem, the F404, which connects to the airframe at just ten points, can be removed with a team of four in about 20 minutes. The result is a piece of equipment that pilots and maintainers alike can trust.

The F/A-18 was just updated, too; new “Block III” Hornets are now entering service. “The new Block III Hornet features improved network capabilities to provide the pilot with increased data,” I noted a few years back. “Information sharing is becoming a prerequisite for modern airframes. Accordingly, the Block III was designed with new gadgets to collect and share information.” While the new Block III does not feature stealth technology, the jet is sufficiently equipped to assist naval operations for decades to come. The F/A-18, despite being something of a heritage platform, a Cold War relic, is simultaneously the plane of the future.

About the Author: Harrison Kass Harrison Kass is a senior defense editor with over 1,000 published articles. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison has degrees from Lake Forest College, the University of Oregon School of Law, and New York University’s Graduate School of Arts & Sciences. He lives in Oregon and regularly listens to Dokken. Email the Author: Editor@nationalinterest.org. 

For the first time since World War II, Germany has established a permanent military presence outside its territorial borders. While the deployment of 4,800 soldiers to Lithuania appears modest, this historic shift in German strategic thinking could hold significant long-term implications for transatlantic security. Throughout the post-war period, the U.S. has guaranteed Germany’s and much of Europe’s security via extended deterrence. However, as Washington recalibrates its focus to counter an increasingly assertive China, it will need to divert resources and personnel from Europe and the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific. Despite anachronistic concerns about a resurgence of Prussian militarism, an actively engaged and capable Germany willing to contribute to deterrence and defense in Europe will facilitate America’s stagnant “Pivot to Asia.” So yes, America and the broader Western world should embrace a Germany ready to take transatlantic security seriously.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reminded everyone that large-scale conventional warfare between two modernized armies is possible today, even in Europe. Nowhere was this shock more evident than in the defeated powers of World War II, with both Germany and Japan tacitly moving away from their longstanding pacifist doctrines to a more combat-ready posture. Immediately following the invasion, Chancellor Olaf Scholz even went so far as to declare a “Zeitenwende,” or a historic turning point in German attitudes toward security. Though progress has been slow, as Scholz cannot reverse decades of defense industry neglect overnight, this recent announcement marks the latest effort to turn the Bundeswehr into a “war-ready” force.

While German soldiers have previously participated in NATO rotational programs, this deployment is the first independent and foreign assignment in Germany’s post-war history. At the request of the Lithuanian government, Berlin will station five units, including one armored near Vilnius and Kaunas – the capital and second-largest city, respectively. Bordered by Russia and its ally Belarus, Lithuania and the other Baltic countries represent NATO’s front lines and most vulnerable targets in the event of a conflict with Russia. Moreover, the tiny nation only fields an army of 16,000 troops, explaining why NATO presence is existential for Lithuanians. However, with the Zeitenwende still in the early phases as Germany’s defense sector lumbers out of dormancy, the brigade will remain inoperative and without actual armor until 2027. Nevertheless, Berlin has demonstrated its willingness to defend every inch of NATO territory by placing troops on the alliance’s eastern flank.

But it is not so much the strategic gains of this move that Washington should welcome but rather the broader trend it indicates. Following the Cold War, Germany has faced consistent criticism from its allies for failing to pull its weight in NATO and meet its financial obligations, specifically earmarking 2% of GDP for annual defense spending. However, this long-term commitment in Lithuania signals that Berlin has adjusted to the new security environment. In addition, as an innovation hub and Europe’s largest economy, Germany has immense potential as a leader in regional security. With encouragement from Washington, a successful Zeitenwende would reduce America’s NATO burdens and enable its reorientation to the Asia-Pacific.

What was supposed to be America’s “Asian Century” has been repeatedly bogged down by exigencies in Europe and now the Middle East. Of course, the U.S. would still play a fundamental role in NATO, and the transatlantic alliance will forever remain a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. But with both the capabilities and intentions to remold the world order, China must remain America’s predominant diplomatic concern.

However, many analysts have expressed historically rooted consternation over Germany’s strategic adjustment. Given Germany’s disastrous role in both World Wars, NATO integrated the country to prevent the re-emergence of deployment-capable force. Consequently, some analysts worry that this deployment to Lithuania will once again legitimize the military as a foreign policy tool in Berlin, altering their long-term approach and worldview. Put bluntly, they fear a revival of German militarism. However, such sentiments reflect outdated perceptions of Prussian Junkers and Panzer tanks while failing to account for the military-cultural changes within Germany since 1945. Modern Germany is not the same country that invaded France three times in one lifetime. Additionally, NATO’s Article 5, which declares an attack on one as an attack against all, effectively thwarts any future German expansionism in Europe.

On a more realistic note, there are legitimate apprehensions regarding the feasibility of enduring German security contributions. To be sure, Scholz’s Zeitenwende is far from fruition, and years of persistent reform are necessary to transform the country’s defense industry. Berlin has notoriously overlooked its military since the end of the Cold War to the point of dilapidation, with 85% of buildings in its once renowned artillery school requiring urgent renovation. When Russia invaded Ukraine, Germany only possessed enough ammunition for 48 hours of combat. Berlin has since dispatched almost its entire arsenal to Kyiv, including tanks, artillery, and ammunition. And while Scholz has recommitted to the 2% NATO threshold, his country remains years away from satisfying the requirement. Furthermore, while Europe stands united today, it is reasonable to question whether Germany will continue along this path when the war ends.

The recent commitments in Lithuania strongly suggest that the Zeitenwende is not a fleeting policy initiative. Even if the recent announcements unfold as planned, Washington should diligently engage its European allies to coordinate and deepen their security infrastructures. Given their economies and technological expertise, there is no reason why the combined efforts of Germany, France, and the U.K. cannot sustain Ukrainian resistance in America’s absence. Yes, Washington should continue to support Ukraine, but the days when its security assurances allowed European powers to disregard defense expenditures are over. A self-sufficient Europe depends on a capable Germany, which, in turn, reinforces transatlantic interests and values. Additionally, America will find itself in a better position to address its pacing challenge of the century in a rising China.

Memorial to the Battle of Kursk, the largest tank battle of the Second World War.

 

Nearshoring and other concepts where a nation and their supportive allies entrench their own economic, policy and security interests may begin in earnest in the upcoming year. This past year has done little to secure a safe society or economic stability anywhere in the world, and the costs of bad policy are now part of the daily lives of most individuals. Views of unappealing outcomes unravelling in unsustainable directions have been made clear to those living in societies based on democratic values, and a clear choice is upon them.

Since Covid, a clear and measured move to take US and Western economic dependence away from China has taken shape. Much of this move involves multinational corporations setting up shop in the USMCA trade zone in Mexico, where a generational trend in uptraining Mexican citizens has been tied to moving manufacturing capabilities into Mexico to serve the North American market. With a productive and technically well trained Mexican workforce, securing US economic activity though Mexico based multinational manufacturing will likely maintain stable markets in the US. This act functions by pulling the US away from dependence on China’s manufacturing might and possible political leverage China may have over the US and its allies in the event of natural barriers or political conflict between the two powers. This move can secure the old NAFTA block of countries, if all members would work with their allies, as opposed to strengthening the threats to themselves and their NAFTA neighbours.

Europe might feel more of the effects from the revolutionary change it needs to make with Russian energy with a colder 2024 upon them. While Europe moves to take in some energy from other parts of the world, accessing energy from the Middle East may become difficult as the Gulf region becomes more erratic and the policy approaches from their own NATO allies keep them in a chilly limbo as opposed to pushing to secure Europe’s energy and security future. The lack of clarity NATO and Europe has had with many of its allies has not only delayed defences being sent to Ukraine, but has given a financial line to Russia in the conflict and has enabled Russian allies to fund, fuel, and ensure attacks on Ukrainian civilians. This indecisive policy comes at a time when NATO and their allies have given billions to the war effort, with families clearing feeling the effects at home. Shaming locals over supporting Ukraine can be seen as a local political tactic at this point, as clearly most have been supportive of Ukraine, and do not deserve to be accused by anyone for their lack of historically significant support. Using Ukraine for local political gain is a major threat to Ukraine’s defence over the next year, and local Government that spin such support for their own political gains hurt Ukraine more than they help.

The structural nature of Western societies has become a major factor in the strength of nations since the masks of many have slipped at the end of 2023. Equality under the law and being able to be productive in a secure society has been challenged by the impression of other systemic norms that often have few roots in justice and equality in modern history. Many opposing systems either are at the brink of collapse, or favour a small cabal of a few powerful elites no matter what label is given from our past or from poorly researched movies. Opportunities for wealth and peace has been bleached from the general narrative by regimes and groups that were already at the end of their shelf life as a political entity, and have no future prospects that anyone would willingly agree to if given a clear picture of those prospects. There are parts of the world that have seen little peace past half a generation, and whose ancestors go back generations as fallen soldiers under the earth of old battlefields in lands that has little value. If a nation does not prepare for any eventuality, including those mentioned above, they can easily turn into a dying society. A society that can live under pax et lux only comes from generations of hard fought values, anything else has proven to simply be the dream of tyrants.

“Tis the season to be merry,” but not in the Land of Israel, which is plagued by war and bloodshed. However, Harfoush’s concert at the European Commission brings peace amidst a dark Christmas in the Middle East.     

As Americans prepare to celebrate Christmas, they aspire to live in a world enjoying peace and harmony. “Tis the season to be merry,” people say. But sadly, for the peoples in the Middle East, peace and harmony is a distant dream, far away from the reality that they experience, as far too many peoples homes have been reduced to rubble in that part of the world, forcing the local inhabitants to flee for their lives. In fact, here in the Holy Land, we are not merry. We are very depressed and feel that this is a dark holiday.    

Israel has been at war since the October 7 massacre, which slaughtered over 1,600. On that horrific day, Hamas raped women en masse, mutilated babies, and committed crimes against humanity at the Rave Music Festival and other nearby kibbutzim, which many refer to as Israel’s September 11. In a recent display by the Israeli mission to the United Nations, the New York Times reported that Yael Richert, a chief superintendent with the Israel Police, noted: “Everything was an apocalypse of corpses. Girls without any clothes on. Without tops. Without underwear. People cut in half. Butchered. Some were beheaded. There were girls with a broken pelvis due to repetitive rapes. Their legs were spread wide apart, in a split.” Another survivor of the Rave Massacre noted that a Hamas terrorist cut off a woman’s breast, threw it on the road and played with it. 

They also took over 260 Israelis hostages, including women, children and the elderly. Many of the hostages are now celebrating the holidays in total darkness in Gaza. Indeed, Newsweek compared what Hamas did on October 7 to ISIS, declaring that there was footage of “women abducted with their babies, grandmothers taken hostage and paraded down the streets of Gaza. There’s a video of a teenage Israeli woman being pulled by terrorists from the back of a vehicle in Gaza. In the video, she is barefoot, wearing sweatpants and a tee-shirt, and as she turns, you can see the back of her sweatpants are covered in blood that came from between her legs.”

We now know the name of the victim is Naama Levy, she is 19 years old and is still being held hostage in Gaza to date. Her mother recently published a plea for her release in the Times of Israel: “You have seen the video of my daughter Naama Levy.  Everyone has. You have seen her dragged by her long brown hair from the back of a jeep at gunpoint, somewhere in Gaza, her gray sweatpants covered in blood. You may have perhaps noticed that her ankles are cut, that’s she’s barefoot and limping.  She is seriously injured. She is frightened. And I, her mother, am helpless in these moments of horror.” She was only one of many victims.  

The few hostages that have been released are completely traumatized. As one of the doctors who examined released hostages told CBS, “There is not a single person who came back that didn’t have a significant physical injury or medical problem. On top of that, some of them were getting medication to look better than they actually were. We definitely saw signs of being handcuffed. We did hear and see evidence of sexual abuse in a significant part of the people we have treated. We also heard evidence and that was one of the hardest parts of abuse against those who are still there, both physical and sexual.”

Since the October 7 massacre, the people in the entire region have been suffering from a war that feels as if it has no end in sight. All of Israel, from Eilat in the South to Rosh Ha-Nikra in the North, is under rocket fire. For a great period of the last semester, most children had zoom classes and were not in school. Although school has now resumed, many services that existed for children before the war do not exist now. The situation is so bad here that only foreign journalists, diplomats, politicians, olim and Israelis are flying to the Jewish state these days for the most part. As a result of the security situation, most foreign airlines refuse to fly into Ben-Gurion Airport. 

Similarly, a great part of Gaza has been reduced to rubble and people are literally starving there, as 1.9 million Gazans have been displaced from their homes because of the war and Hamas is stealing the limited humanitarian aid that is let through.  As the country becomes colder, many people in Gaza are forced to live in tents instead of proper homes, as their homes were destroyed in the war and Hamas unlike Israel does not provide their refugees with hotel rooms. 

I have a good friend who was forced to flee her home because of intensive rocket fire from Lebanon. Her beautiful home with a swimming pool was literally transformed overnight into a war zone, unsafe for her, her husband and their four small children to live in. The Israeli government offered her a hotel room in Tiberius, but she chose to flee to Switzerland instead, for she feared this war had no end in sight. I got another friend whose cousin was murdered on October 7. All day long, she is crying over her loss, her beloved relative who went to work and did not come home, leaving behind a widow in her twenties and small children. All of the people here around the holiday season feel the lack of peace and security.

Imagine what it is like to celebrate Christmas without a Christmas tree. This year in Bethlehem, there are no Christmas trees put up in public displays, according to a Palestinian source that I know. Imagine what it is like to celebrate Christmas without the children going out to see the play “A Christmas Carol” by Charles Dickens. This year in Netanya, the city where I live, the municipality canceled all of the Hanukkah plays because of the war. 

Unfortunately, people who live in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and other parts of the Middle East are also suffering around Christmas this year. In Syria alone, the Civil War that began in 2011 has resulted in over 400,000 deaths and millions of others have been displaced from their homes, and do not know if they will ever be able to return. The situation in the Cedar state is also not good. Lebanon has lost tens of thousands of lives over the years as well. The people of Yemen are literally starving to death, as the civil war there devastated that country. Literally, anywhere where Iran’s proxies took over, from Gaza to Syria and Lebanon to Yemen, the people are suffering gravely.

It is in this spirit that the European Commission in Brussels decided to host a concert titled “Save a Life, You Save Humanity.” Omar Harfouch, who is the Honorary President of the Organization for Dialogue and Diversity, a pianist and composer, who has been active in peace-building efforts in the Middle East, decided to perform this song in the European Commission in order to highlight the value of preserving human life in a region dominated by war, heartache and sorrow. The song “Save a Life, You Save Humanity” was inspired by the Quran and the Talmud, who both have a phrase declaring “you save a life, you save the world entire.” 

The concert took place in the main hall of the European Commission, during a musical evening organized on the eve of the European summit which brings together all European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, to make crucial decisions concerning the future of Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East. During his performance, Omar Harfouch read Surah Al-Ma’idah 32: “The Almighty says: and he who saves a life, it is as if he had saved all humanity”, in front of European officials and decision-makers, all under the sponsorship of European Commissioner Oliviér Várhelyi. 

During the reading of this surah, the audience had a surprised face as they heard the Holy Quran, which for the first time was read inside the European Commission building. Very involved in his fight for peace, Omar Harfouch asked political leaders to promise him one thing: that they would each save a life after hearing his music, composed for the occasion. The composer’s new musical work was composed of two parts symbolizing the divisions of today’s world: the first, which tells of a full and happy life, filled with love and tolerance. The second, which describes a life of sadness, destruction, fear, loss of security and hope. And which poses a crucial question: which world do we want to live in: the first or the second?

From the end of the first part, played on the piano with the orchestra, the audience warmly applauded the musicians. At the end of the second part, the audience was on its feet, some people in the audience unable to contain a few tears. The success was such that Omar Harfouch and his orchestra were immediately asked by the ambassadors present in the room to play this composition in all European cities.

Note that during this concert, Omar Harfouch was accompanied by his official violinist, the Ukrainian Anna Bondarenko, and an orchestra of fifteen musicians from different nationalities: French, Belgian, Syrian, Ukrainian and Macedonian.  It was also the first time that a classical music concert took place in an official building of the European Commission in Brussels.  His song calling for tolerance was so moving that here in the Holy Land, I dream of the day when he can also come here to perform his song in a call for peace and harmony, so that this dark Christmas can be transformed into a beautiful bright one, where peoples around the world live in peace and prosperity with each other. 

The global displacement crisis has reached alarming proportions, with millions of people forced to leave their homes due to armed conflicts, persecution and systematic policies.   According to the concept paper written for an international conference sponsored by the West Azerbaijan community, “It is imperative to prioritize the voluntary, safe and dignified return of expelled people to their homes as a long-term solution.”

The Azerbaijanis were deliberately expelled and deported from the territory of present-day Armenia in 1905-1906, 1918-1920 and 1948-1953.  In 1948-1953 alone, more than 150,000 Azerbaijanis were deported en masse from their historical lands in the territory of the Armenian SSR.  Some of them, especially the elderly and infants, died due to severe resettlement conditions, unfavorable climate, physical deprivation and mental suffering.   In the face of the disintegration of the USSR, more than 250,000 Azerbaijanis living in Armenia were forcibly expelled from their historical lands.   216 of them were mercilessly slaughtered and 1,154 were injured.

In a recent conference titled “Enabling the safe and dignified return of Azerbaijanis expelled from Armenia: Global context and just solution,” Dr. Nazim Mustafa of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences noted: “In the 1800s, only a few Armenians existed there,” noting that it was the decision of the colonial powers to transform Yerevan Province into a homeland for the Armenian people by importing Armenians into the region and kicking out Azerbaijanis.   

Professor Yildiz Deveci Bozkus from Ankara University underscored that Yerevan province was originally a majority Azerbaijani area and that foreign experts in the past even noted that there were scarcely any Armenians in the area.   Yet, she noted that thanks to the work of colonial powers who supported the ethnic cleansing of Azerbaijanis from the region, it is now an exclusively Armenian place: “The Soviet policy led to the displacement of thousands of Azerbaijanis, with their historical and cultural heritage being destroyed in Armenia.  This changed the demography of the region.”

According to the concept paper, “The case of forced expulsion of Azerbaijanis from Armenia, where they once constituted an absolute majority, represents an immense and unprecedented injustice.   The plight of Azerbaijani expellees from Armenia exemplifies the grievous consequences of ethnic cleansing perpetuated by systematic state efforts, characterized by violence and gross human rights violations.   These tragic events unfolded over multiple periods, notably in 1948-53 and 1987-91.   The consequences of these illegal actions remain unresolved.”

Khalid Taimur Akram, the executive director of the Pakistani Research Center for a Community with a Shared Future, stated: “The forced expulsion of Azerbaijanis from their homes in the 1990’s represents a dark chapter in the history of the South Caucasus.   Families of refugees had their lives shattered.    The Armenian forces committed ethnic cleansing.”  He emphasized that their safe return to their homes is pivotal for the establishment of peace and security in the South Caucasus.  

According to the Concept of Return, which was published by the conference, “Ethnic cleansing committed against Azerbaijanis was in most carried out with the state organs through violence, genocide, massacres and other crimes against humanity and gross violations of human rights.   The Soviet Union, in particular its notorious leader Joseph Stalin, who transferred Zangazur and other majority Azerbaijani areas to Armenia in 1921 and who signed a racist order on the deportation of one hundred thousand ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia, remained unredressed.”

They continued: “In the same vein, the actions committed by the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic against its Azerbaijani population in 1987-1991 are still unremedied.  In Armenia nowadays, Azerbaijani historical and cultural heritage including mosques and graveyards, toponyms were changed and systematic racial discrimination was carried out against Azerbaijanis.   Those who participated in ethnic cleansing and other crimes against ethnic Azerbaijanis and their misdeeds are glorified at the state level in Armenia.” 

It should be emphasized that the Azerbaijanis who were forced out of Armenia were peaceful citizens, who did not pose a threat to the Armenian state.  They were not part of any armed groups that threatened the political goals of the Armenians.  They were merely kicked out of their homes because of their faith and nationality, and for no other reason.   For this reason, in the framework of a future peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, their return should not be considered a threat.        

Sadly, West Azerbaijanis are not the only nation to suffer such a fate.   Ambassador Gunyan Saptoma, Chairman of the International Relations Commission of the Council of the Indonesian Ulema, noted that the right of return of the refugees is engrained in international law and that there are many displaced nations in Southeast Asia as well.  One poignant example he gave was the boat people of Vietnam: “The Vietnam War lasted for twenty years.   After the fall of Saigon, the capital of South Vietnam, when the United States decided to withdraw its troops from South Vietnam, there were about a half of a million boat people and around 700,000 fled to the United States and its allies, such as Canada and Australia.”

However, unlike the West Azerbaijanis, the boat people of Vietnam did see light at the end of the tunnel:  “More than 100,000 later were repatriated back to Vietnam for they were not accepted by the United States as real refugees.   I participated in the effort to repatriate 12,000 Vietnamese back to South Vietnam.   The Vietnamese government agreed to accept them in 1993.”  Let us hope that in the wake of a peace agreement the West Azerbaijanis can be accepted back as well.     

China’s People Liberal Army En Marche…

China has benefitted from the lack of focus on its actions since 2022 while the West was completely concentrated on Ukraine. The conflicts in Europe and the Middle East were not expected soon before they began, and once those conflicts took shape, the focus on China’s growing presence on the world stage was no longer the main concern in the West. China has been able to avoid sanctions while not only having some ties to Russian arms deals, but also by avoiding a major fallout from Covid. While China is not in a poor position due to these international events, the ties that China forms or diminishes will have a significant impact on life in China.

US economic Tic Tok Toe with China through both Republican and Democratic administrations has put pressure on China’s export economy which relies heavily on manufactured goods exports to North America and Europe. While China’s economic burdens grow due to those policies, China’s manufacturing weight on the world economy is still in a fair position. China still has a great amount of access to many of those Western economies that its fair-weather allies have been locked out of, and will still be able to manage their economy in a position of strength. Chinese companies have been able to seek some direct benefits through nearshoring to places like Mexico, and will need to come to a meeting of minds in achieving new economic arrangements via importing raw goods after Government changes in places like Argentina. China may not be in a boom phase like they were in the 2010s, but they can enter into their position as an advanced economy, complete with stable policies, manageable recessions, and clever investment policy, if they choose such a path.

China must choose to create an image of itself as being independent, strong and not greatly aligned to nations that are embroiled in direct conflict with their trade partners, even if the trade relationship is not ideal for China. Exporting and trade with Western countries who allow for a great deal of leeway in their relationships with China are already a political advantage. Even if these activities are serious concerns in Western countries, there are surprisingly few actions being taken to stop them at this time that will prevent Chinese exports to Western nations. This balance of national/party interests for China not only have a limit, but likely have an expiration date, and China should avoid making themselves into a target as there is little benefit to China in a hot conflict with any regional or international opponents.

Russia has recently taken to importing artillery surpluses from North Korea, and likely has sought such ammunition and gear from China as many of their Soviet designed systems operate with similar equipment. There is little benefit however to China in aligning itself with Russia’s war in Ukraine, as the sales from consumer goods outweighs the sales of artillery sales to one nation. While China and Russia do align on many policy positions, they are not proper allies in any sense of the word, and make decisions to their own singular benefit. China would be able to balance their own position by selling its arms to both sides, as both sides use similar artillery shells and China’s only benefits from the Russo-Ukraine war are possible export opportunities and cheap raw imports. With funds drying up to support Ukraine, and both sides using the same Red Dawn era equipment, China does not need to take a position to gain a balanced economic and political position when dealing with Russia or NATO in Europe. China does well when it is not directly or indirectly involved in a war, or with those who seek conflict.

China has sought recent assurances to secure their energy imports from actors in the Persian Gulf region in order to fuel its manufacturing economy. The strategy of tamping down the pressure helps China in two ways. The first it to maintain Chinese commercial shipping capabilities towards the region that can be easily blocked by smaller regional powers or by India, and the second is to secure a dependable and frequent supply of energy imports to its massive economy and population. To ensure this, China should maintain its own military capabilities as it has done throughout its history, but make trade and profits from exports the primary policy driver over possible plans to assault Taiwan, or having shooting sessions in the mountains with India. An attack on Taiwan would end much of China’s relationship with the West, aka, all of their export consumers, and conflicts with India will only sour relations further with what will be the most important power in Asia over the next ten years.

Economic and societal pressures is the biggest threat to China’s current government. Energy should be clearly sought though agreements with allies of export consumer nations, as ties to regimes that cause more conflict is not good for Chinese exports, Chinese imports, or Chinese energy infrastructure. Tying China’s economy to nations in perpetual conflict will have the effect of putting economic pressure on the Chinese people themselves. China possesses a large population, a fair amount of natural resources, and a good amount of territory, and does not need to fight for those essential elements to be a stable nation. The biggest threat to China’s regime is a local revolt, and that will come with instability and conflict. Economic pressure for China is one of the main elements that may disintegrate stability in Chinese communities. While economic trade pressures may result in a slow but managed decline, pressures from conflicts will unravel a society rapidly. Allies in conflict give no benefit if China has no direct goals in those conflicts, simply adding hardships to Chinese citizens. China’s ties to horrific regimes only ensures losses of funds, fuel, food and family members who rely on the youth to care for the elderly…and with these great pressures, come great changes. The next few short years will determine China’s ultimate path.

 

If one asks the average American, who are the Qizilbash people, the average American won’t know what you are speaking about.   They will say the “Qizil what?”   And then, if you ask them about the connection of the Qizilbash people to Azerbaijan, the average American will ask you how to spell Azerbaijan and ponder where it is on the map.    However, the average American should learn a little bit about who the Qizilbash people are if they seek to understand the history of modern-day Azerbaijan,  Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, the regions of strategic value to the United States of America.   

Recently, the State Committee on Work with the Diaspora, a government agency of Azerbaijan, held an event titled “the Heritage of the Qizilbash in Azerbaijan: in the footsteps of history,” which sought to raise awareness about the Qizilbash people, who are an association of Turkic nomadic tribes that speak the Azerbaijani language.  These tribes included the Rumlu, Shamlu, Ustajlu, Afshar, Qajar, Tekelu, and Zulkadar.   From the 15th century onwards, these tribes contributed to the foundation of the imperial Azerbaijani Dynasty of Safavids that originated in Azerbaijan and ruled over a big part of the Near and  Middle East.   

The Azerbaijani Safavid Dynasty or the State of Qizilbash which was its other denomination, was the first Twelver Shia Empire in modern-day Iran.   Because of the Safavids, Iran today is Shia and not Sunni.  However, the Safavids were not primitive like the mullahs in Tehran are today.  The Iran under Azerbaijani Safavids was an economic stronghold between East and West who had an efficient state bureaucracy based upon checks and balances.   They created great architectural landmarks and patronized the fine arts.   Under their role, Turkic and not Persian influence was dominant.  The State language was Azerbaijani as well as military and ruling elite consisted of Azerbaijani Qizilbash tribes. Indeed, it was only from the Pahlavi Dynasty onwards that Turkic identity in Iran was repressed rather than celebrated.        

The conference that was held in Azerbaijan sought to raise awareness about the roots and identity of the Qizilbash and to promote communication that can lead to the reunification of the global community of Qizilbash, like it existed at the time of the Azerbaijani Safavid Empire. “Azerbaijan is doing great work to unite the Qizilbash people,” former federal secretary of Pakistan, Board member of the Qizilbash Global Heritage Organization Agha Sarwar Raza stated.   “Our ancestors lived on the territory of Azerbaijan.   Subsequently, they spread to different countries.   Azerbaijan is our motherland.”  

In a joint statement, the members of the Qizilbash Global Heritage Organization, co-organizer of the conference, stated: “We, members of the Qizilbash Global Heritage Organization which is part of the world Qizilbash community, feel proud to note that the Qizilbash movement which emerged in the second half of the 15th century opened a new page in the history of the Near and Middle East and the Turkic world on the whole.   During the reign of the Safavid state founded by the Qizilbash tribes which incorporated present-day Azerbaijan, Armenia, Dagestan, Iran, Iraq, Eastern Turkey, Eastern Georgia, Southern Turkmenistan and Western Afghanistan and in the subsequent years notably during the conquest of Nadir Shah Afshar, a great figure in world military history, the Qizilbash made a stronghold in these areas thus having eventually spread to different parts of the world.”

They continued by “stressing the importance of this international conference as a great beginning in the wider study and promotion of Qizilbash heritage which appears to be a glorious page in the history of Azerbaijan.  In a broader sense, we perceive this significant event as a historical step marking organized and purposeful activities towards the appropriation by Azerbaijani people and state of its glorious historical heritage.”   On another note, the Qizilbash Global Heritage Organization “expressed our faith in the sustainability of activities on a broader scale and format towards strengthening the bonds of the world Qizilbash with their historical homeland and their return to their historical roots and support future efforts of this kind.”

The Qizilbash Global Heritage was established in Canada in order to help Qizilbash from across the world to reconnect with their roots, coordinate their joint activities, to be introduced to the Azerbaijani language and culture, and to integrate them into Azerbaijani society.   Arshi Qizilbash, the deputy chairman of the Qizilbash Global Heritage Organization, stated that the goal of the organization is to grow and take their organization to the United Nations and UNESCO for recognition as a world heritage organization.   

By Rachel Avraham

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