Africa

A large wind farm of turbines on the flat landscape of California. Credit: Climate kcdsTM

By Umar Manzoor Shah
SRINAGAR, India & BELÉM, Brazil, Nov 6 2025 (IPS)

A decade has passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, and a United Nations synthesis report released ahead of COP30 in Belém shows that “Parties are bending their combined emission curve further downwards, but still not quickly enough.”

The report, compiled by the UNFCCC secretariat, assesses 64 new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties between January 2024 and September 2025, covering about 30 percent of global emissions in 2019.

Bruce Douglas, an expert on renewable energy and electrification and CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA), in an exclusive interview with IPS, said that it is encouraging to see the momentum in the latest NDCs and government targets, which are more ambitious and implementable than previous rounds.

“However, we’re seeing even greater acceleration in the real economy, where renewables hit a record 582 GW of new capacity last year, so governments need to catch up with private sector ambition. But let’s be clear: to have a chance of achieving the tripling renewable energy goal and 1.5°C pathway, the world needs to add roughly 1,100 GW every year to 2030. The direction is right, but the pace must double. We need particular focus in emerging economies, where finance still isn’t flowing at anywhere near the scale required.”

Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA). Credit: GRA

Douglas added that there is a real appetite in countries around the world to decarbonize at pace, but most developing country NDCs are conditional on financing, so this is the crucial challenge to address.

He said that renewable energy projects are also being held back by predictable bottlenecks—slow permitting, grid constraints, and the high cost of capital in emerging markets.

“These are fixable. We know the solutions: faster permitting, predictable auctions, and investment in grids and storage. But above all, we need access to affordable finance. Investors are ready—governments and MDBs must create the certainty to unlock it,” Douglas said.

A Decade of Progress—But Not Enough

Ten years after Paris, the report acknowledges “new indications of real and increasing progress on action to address climate change through national efforts underpinned by global cooperation.” According to the executive summary, Parties are setting out new national climate targets and plans to achieve them that differ in pace and scale from any that have come before. However, while “Parties are bending their combined emission curve further downwards, they are still not doing it quickly enough,” the report warns.

The urgency for accelerated action is clear.

“It remains evident that major acceleration is still needed in terms of delivering faster and deeper emission reductions and ensuring that the vast benefits of strong climate action reach all countries and peoples,” the summary states.

“We have seen extraordinary renewable growth over the past two decades, and markets are often moving faster than governments, but the gap between targets and deployment continues to grow. We no longer have time for pledges; now is the time for progress. What matters most is visibility: real project pipelines, clear timelines, and bankable frameworks that turn ambition into megawatts. That’s what COP30 should deliver—a clear signal that we are in the era of implementation,” Douglas said.

Economy-Wide Targets, Alignment with Global Stocktake

A notable improvement in the new NDCs is their increased comprehensiveness. The report highlights, “The new NDCs show a progression in terms of quality, credibility and economic coverage, with 89 percent of Parties communicating economy-wide targets (compared with 81 percent in their previous NDCs).”

The parties have also responded to the outcomes of the first global stocktake (GST).

“Eighty eight percent of Parties indicated that their NDCs were informed by the outcomes of the GST and 80 per cent specifying how.” This signals an increasing willingness to align national climate planning with global science and ambition.

Douglas said that the first Global Stocktake was a wake-up call—and it worked to catalyze the focus on the 3x renewables target.

“Now COP30 must translate that momentum into measurable delivery: reaffirming the goal to triple renewables, delivering major finance signals for grids and storage and setting ambitious short-term renewable goals in the next NDC round.”

Projected range of greenhouse gas emission levels for the Parties that have submitted 2035 targets according to their new nationally determined contributions, with or without Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (LULCF). Credit: UN Climate Change

Emissions on a Downward Trajectory—But Short of 1.5°C

The report analyzes the projected impact of these NDCs on greenhouse gas emissions. “Collectively, the new NDCs show a reduction in projected emissions of 17 (11–24) percent below the 2019 level,” it finds. Full implementation of all new NDCs, including conditional elements, “is estimated to bring the total GHG emission level of the relevant group of Parties down to 12.3 (12.0–12.7) Gt CO₂ eq by 2035, which would be 19–24 percent below the 2019 level.”

The report cautions, however, that “the scale of the total emission reduction expected to be achieved by the group of Parties… falls short of what is necessary according to the IPCC ranges.” According to the latest IPCC synthesis, “GHG emission reductions will have to be reduced by 60 (49–77) percent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level” to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Holistic Approaches and Sectoral Progress

The report identifies a “whole-of-economy, whole-of-society approach” as “an increasingly core pillar of ensuring economic stability and growth, jobs, health, and energy security and affordability, among many other policy imperatives, in countries.”

Mitigation and adaptation are increasingly integrated.

“All NDCs go beyond mitigation to include elements, inter alia, on adaptation, finance, technology transfer, capacity-building and addressing loss and damage, reflecting the comprehensive scope of the Paris Agreement.

Adaptation is more prominent than ever, with “73 percent of the new NDCs including an adaptation component.”

Douglas said that the power sector is leading the charge—solar is on track; what is needed is to rapidly accelerate wind, geothermal, hydropower, grids, and storage to keep up.

He said that electrifying transport, heating and harder-to-abate industry sectors are next in line.

“We’re seeing promising clean-industry pilots and early electrification, but they need clear policy frameworks to scale. Every sector must move faster: we need to electrify everything that can be electrified—with renewable energy as the foundation.”

Just Transition and Social Inclusion

The concept of just transition is gaining ground.

“A total of 70 percent of Parties considered just transition in preparing their new NDCs and the majority of those Parties plan to integrate consideration of just transition into NDC implementation,” the report notes. “Parties contextualized just transition as helping to ensure that the shift to low-carbon, climate-resilient economies does not exacerbate existing or create new inequalities in societies, thus enabling climate action that is socially inclusive and economically empowering.”

Forests, Oceans, and Nature-Based Solutions

Protecting natural sinks remains a major topic. “Parties have integrated forest measures into economy-wide mitigation targets and mentioned forest-specific contributions and indicators in their new NDCs.” The synthesis highlights “international collaboration and REDD+ results-based payments as keys to mitigation in the forest sector, while noting synergies with achieving adaptation and biodiversity objectives.”

Ocean-based climate action is also rising. “Parties reported a significant increase in ocean-based climate action compared with the previous NDCs, with 78 percent of Parties including in the new NDCs at least one explicit reference to the ocean—an increase of 39 percent.”

Finance, Technology, and Capacity-Building: The Implementation Challenge

Finance remains a central challenge to ambition.

“A total of 88 percent of Parties provided information on the finance required to implement activities in line with their NDCs, with 75 percent characterizing finance in terms of support needed,” the report notes. Parties reported “a total cost in the range of USD 1,970.8–1,975.0 billion in aggregate… comprising USD 1,073.88–1,074.00 billion identified as support needed from international sources.”

Technology and capacity-building are also highlighted as key enablers. “A total of 97 percent of Parties provided information on technology development and transfer… 84 percent of Parties referenced capacity-building in varying detail, with 31 percent of those Parties discussing it in sections on means of implementation or capacity-building.”

Inclusion of Gender, Youth, and Indigenous Peoples

The new NDCs reflect a growing focus on social inclusion and empowerment. “Gender integration into NDCs is advancing, with Parties increasingly considering gender to promote inclusive and effective climate action. In their new NDCs, 89 percent of Parties provided information related to gender and 80 percent affirmed that they will take gender into account in implementing the NDCs.”

The report further notes, “It is the first time that a section on children and youth has featured in the NDC synthesis report. A total of 88 percent of Parties in their new NDCs… included information, generally more clearly and in more detail than previously, reflecting a stronger commitment to meaningful inclusion, on how children and youth have been or will be considered in NDC development and implementation.”

Similarly, “A total of 72 percent of Parties reported an increased focus on the vital role of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in climate adaptation and mitigation, compared with 66 percent previously.”

International Cooperation and Voluntary Efforts

The synthesis report highlights the indispensability of international cooperation. “International cooperation was emphasized as critical for mobilizing resources and bridging the gap between NDC ambition and implementation by 97 percent of Parties.” The report reads further, “Parties described their engagement with international partners to promote effective and inclusive climate action through voluntary cooperation initiatives, regional collaboration and sectoral activities such as energy transition.”

Despite progress, the report issues a warning.

“With their GHG emissions in 2035 on average estimated to be 17 (11–24) percent below their 2019 level… the scale of the total emission reduction expected to be achieved by the group of Parties… falls short of what is necessary according to the IPCC ranges.” “Major acceleration is still needed in terms of delivering faster and deeper emission reductions and ensuring that the vast benefits of strong climate action reach all countries and peoples.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

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Excerpt:

Bruce Douglas, CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance, argues that there is a real appetite in countries around the world to decarbonize at pace, but most developing country NDCs are conditional on financing. This is the crucial challenge to address.

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Photos from UNICEF show the impact of destruction in Jamaica, with neighborhoods being submerged in water and communities lacking access to a host of basic services. Credit: UNICEF

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Nov 6 2025 (IPS)

In late October, Hurricane Melissa, a powerful Category 5 storm, made landfall in the Caribbean, causing catastrophic damage to civilian infrastructure and a devastating loss of life. Humanitarian agencies have mobilized on the ground to deliver urgent assistance to affected communities facing widespread destruction of homes, mass displacement, fatalities, and severe shortages of essential services, including food, water, medicine, shelter, and electricity.

The United Nations (UN) estimates that roughly six million people across the Caribbean have been affected by Hurricane Melissa. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) projects that approximately 1.6 million children in the Caribbean are at risk of the impacts of flooding, landslides, and regional disruption.

As of November 4, at least 84 civilian deaths have been reported—43 in Haiti, largely due to flooding and landslides, and 35 in Jamaica. The coastal town of Black River in Jamaica suffered particularly severe damage, with an estimated 90 percent of homes losing their roofs. Other districts across the nation also reported extensive destruction to infrastructure, including building collapses and widespread flooding.

“All efforts to prepare for the arrival of the hurricane are vital to mitigate damage and loss of life in the most vulnerable communities, especially in regions like the Caribbean,” said Roberto Benes, UNICEF Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. “UNICEF helps strengthen national capacities to anticipate and respond to climate-related emergencies, and to deliver essential services for children. This is fundamental to protecting those who need it most.”

According to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the UN and its partners are on the ground in Jamaica, leading a “robust national response”, in an effort to strengthen humanitarian cooperation, working to restore access to life-saving services and revitalize schools and hospitals in areas that have been hardest hit.

On November 3, the World Food Programme (WFP) launched an emergency response plan for the hardest hit communities in Jamaica. As of now, over 1,500 people have received food assistance with parcels containing food staples such as rice, lentils, meat, and vegetable oil. An additional 2,000 food kits were transported from Barbados.

“More shipments are arriving this week and WFP is facilitating the transportation of this assistance in coordination with partners across the UN system,” said Brian Bogart, WFP’s Country Director for the Multi-Country Office for the Caribbean. “WFP plans to assist up 200,000 people across the country with food assistance and transition to cash as and when markets begin to recover. This is critical for transitioning from an immediate humanitarian response to a longer term recovery strategy, supporting markets and the economy of Jamaica.”

Bogart adds that the UN and its partners are working “hand-in-hand” with the Jamaican government to support relief efforts and strengthen emergency preparedness programs. In Cuba, UN agencies were able to mobilize critical support services prior to Hurricane Melissa’s landfall, positioning USD $4 million allocated from the OCHA-managed Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF).

Additionally, the Cuban Red Cross and the International Federation of Red Cross (IFRC) are currently working together to issue early-warning messages and provide psychosocial support. It is estimated that the delivery of over 3.5 million early warning messages saved thousands of lives.

In the immediate aftermath of the hurricane, WFP was able to deliver food for 180,000 people in protection centers across Cuba. “We plan to assist 900,000 people for three months and half of those in need of assistance for an additional 3 months,” said Etienne Labande, WFP’s Country Director in Cuba.“The UN in Cuba finalized its response plan which has been approved by the government and will be launched officially tomorrow in La Habana, appealing for a total of USD $74 million, all sectors included, and aiming to assist over 1 million people affected for a total of 12 months.”

UNICEF was also able to assist with water-treatment kits and hygiene kits for thousands, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) was able to assist with shelter resources to protect civilians who have had their houses destroyed or damaged, and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has delivered health and dignity kits.

Despite these gains, humanitarian experts continue to stress the urgency of the situation, highlighting severe access constraints and urging for strengthened humanitarian cooperation and a steady flow of funding.

“In times like this, international solidarity isn’t just a principle – it’s a lifeline,” said Tom Fletcher, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator. “Local leadership, global solidarity, and early action are saving lives across the region. This is the humanitarian reset at work – acting together with greater impact.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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By Juan Carlos Jintiach and M. Florencia Librizzi
NAPO, Amazonia, Ecuador / NEW YORK, Nov 6 2025 (IPS)

As world leaders prepare to gather in Brazil for COP30 next week, they will convene in the heart of the Amazon — a fitting location for what must become a turning point in how the world addresses the intertwined crises of climate change and biodiversity loss.

Around the world, Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ leadership has long been and will continue to be a critical path forward.

A new report released by the Global Alliance of Territorial Communities (GATC) and Earth Insight exposes the staggering scale of industrial threats facing the 36 million Indigenous Peoples and local communities who steward more than 958 million hectares of vital tropical forests.

The findings underscore the need for immediate action from the governments, financial institutions, and international bodies gathering at COP30 to reinforce solutions led by Indigenous Peoples and local communities who have cared for these forests and multiple ecosystems for generations.

Aerial view of Indigenous participants at a demonstration for “The Answer Is Us” campaign. Credit: The Answer Is Us

Alarming Threats in the Pan-Tropics

The evidence is sobering. In the Amazon, 31 million hectares of Indigenous Peoples’ territories are overlapped by oil and gas blocks, with an additional 9.8 million hectares threatened by mining concessions. In the Congo Region, 38% of community forests face oil and gas threats, while peatlands critical to global carbon storage — holding roughly 30 billion tons of carbon — are threatened by new licensing.

In Indonesia, Indigenous Peoples’ territories confront massive overlaps with timber and mining concessions. In Mesoamerica, Indigenous Peoples and local communities face extensive mining threats across their lands.

These forests regulate the global climate, sustain biodiversity, and are essential for cultural and spiritual continuity for millions of people. These territories produce oxygen, regulate rainfall systems across continents, and store carbon essential to preventing runaway climate change.

When these forests are destroyed, the consequences reach far beyond their borders — destabilizing weather patterns, accelerating species extinction, and pushing the planet closer to irreversible tipping points.

These statistics represent the lived reality of communities like the Waorani in Ecuador, whose territories face a 64% overlap with oil blocks despite a historic court victory affirming their rights. They describe the plight of the O’Hongana Manyawa in Indonesia, one of the last Indigenous Peoples living in voluntary isolation on Earth, now surrounded by nickel mining operations destroying their forest homeland in the name of the “green transition.”

The violence accompanying this destruction is equally stark. Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and Afro-descendants, defending lands they have protected for generations, are being killed for standing in the way of corporate profits and national development schemes that ignore both human rights and planetary boundaries.

Solutions and Success Models That Need to be Scaled

Amid these threats, there are also stories of resilience, proven solutions, and a clear pathway forward. In Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve, community forest concessions lost only 1.5% of their forests over ten years — seven times less than the national average. In Colombia, 25 Indigenous Peoples’ Territorial Entities maintain over 99% of their forests intact.

In Indonesia’s Wallacea Archipelago, Gendang Ngkiong communities reclaimed 892 hectares of customary land through participatory mapping and legal reforms. The pattern is consistent and undeniable: when Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ rights are secured, and communities lead, forests thrive.

This is the paradox world leaders must finally confront at COP30 and beyond. Despite representing less than 5% of the global population, Indigenous Peoples and local communities safeguard 54% of the world’s remaining intact forests and 43% of Key Biodiversity Areas.

While Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ governance systems, ancestral knowledge, and traditional ways of life have kept these multiple ecosystems in balance for generations, that balance is now threatened by the relentless advance of extractive industries. Mining operations, agribusiness expansion, oil extraction, illegal logging, and land invasions — often backed by policies that actively undermine Indigenous Peoples’ and local communities’ rights — are dismantling the very systems that have proven most effective at conservation.

Indigenous Peoples and local communities are not obstacles to progress or barriers of last resort; they are the foundation of viable climate solutions and the living embodiment of synergy between people and nature.

At COP30 and moving forward, world leaders must move beyond symbolic recognition to concrete action. The Brazzaville Declaration provides the roadmap: securing Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ land rights, guaranteeing free, prior, and informed consent, ensuring direct financing, protecting defenders’ lives, and integrating traditional knowledge into global policies.

These demands should guide governments, funders, and institutions in how to shift from extraction to regeneration, demonstrating that without securing Indigenous Peoples and local communities’ rights and supporting community-led stewardship, international climate and biodiversity targets cannot be achieved. Yet by following the leadership of those who have protected these ecosystems for generations, the world has a viable roadmap toward regeneration.

As COP30 opens in Brazil, the symbolism is powerful. Will world leaders honor the wisdom of the land they gather upon? Will they listen to those whose ancestral knowledge has sustained the Amazon and countless other ecosystems for millennia? Or will they continue policies that treat forests and nature as expendable and Indigenous Peoples and local communities as obstacles to progress?

The future of the world’s tropical forests and vital ecosystems, and humanity’s shared climate, will be determined by whether governments, funders, and global institutions act on this knowledge. The answer is us — all of us, working together, with Indigenous Peoples and local communities leading the way.

Juan Carlos Jintiach is Executive Secretary, Global Alliance of Territorial Communities and M. Florencia Librizzi is Deputy Director, Earth Insight

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Source : © European Union, 2025 - EP

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