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Ils parsèment le paysage post-yougoslave, « du Vardar au Triglav ». Parfois oubliés, souvent négligés voire saccagés, les spomenici sont des monuments modernistes en l'honneur des partisans antifascistes de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. La plasticienne Andréa Vamos remet en lumière ce patrimoine. Entretien.

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Residents of the main city express shock after soldiers tried to overthrow the president.

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By Jordan Ryan
Dec 8 2025 (IPS)

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Established democracies are exhibiting governance stresses that were once associated primarily with fragile and conflict-affected states. Polarisation is weakening institutional trust, fragmenting civic norms, and reducing societies’ ability to solve problems collectively. This is the new fragility. At the same time, governments and civil society organisations are adopting digital tools to support public participation. These deliberative technologies hold real promise, but in polarised environments they also carry risks. Their success depends on the same principles that have guided peacebuilding efforts for decades.

Across regions, the political landscape has shifted in ways that mirror dynamics familiar from post-conflict settings. Deepening identity rifts, distrust of institutions, and competing factual narratives are reshaping public life in countries long regarded as stable. Polarisation is no longer a peripheral concern; it has become a structural condition of governance. When institutions lose legitimacy and fear becomes a central organising force, formal capacity alone is insufficient to maintain stability.

In this environment, deliberative technologies are being introduced with the expectation that they can expand participation and strengthen decision-making. These systems are designed for structured listening and collaborative problem-solving. Yet many are deployed in contexts marked by distrust, grievance, and political contestation. Digital participation cannot succeed if it is layered onto institutions already viewed as partisan or unresponsive. Without the operating disciplines of peacebuilding, these tools risk amplifying the very divisions they aim to mitigate.

The dynamics of polarisation shape this new fragility in three interconnected ways. First, political allegiance is increasingly tied to perceived identity threat. Affective polarisation has become a defining feature of public life, narrowing the space for compromise. Second, fragmented information ecosystems reward outrage and accelerate the spread of misinformation, leaving citizens with incompatible understandings of basic facts. Third, institutions responsible for moderating conflict—courts, election bodies, public administrators, and independent media—are being reframed as partisan actors. When these bodies lose legitimacy, societies fall into conflict-habituated patterns in which escalation becomes predictable and attempts at compromise appear suspect.

Recent developments in the United States illustrate how these pressures unfold in a consolidated democracy. Executive actions that centralised administrative power, weakened professional civil service structures, and transformed technical governance issues into cultural battlegrounds created conditions more familiar from fragile states than from established democracies. Large-scale civil service layoffs reduced institutional memory and policy capacity. Oversight mechanisms were politicised. Rules governing public sector technology, including artificial intelligence, became instruments of ideological conflict rather than public stewardship. Similar patterns are emerging elsewhere, revealing how fragile the foundations of democratic governance can become when institutions are systematically undermined.

To address this new fragility, deliberative technology must be regarded as a governance challenge, not a technical solution. A peacebuilding-informed framework offers practical guidance built on three essential foundations. First, governance must take precedence over gadgets. Deliberative platforms are never neutral; their design, oversight, and data management all structure power and influence. Democratic systems require transparent decision rules and independent oversight. Mechanisms such as multi-stakeholder oversight bodies or community data trusts can institutionalise accountability and ensure that deliberation remains a civic rather than commercial function.

Second, impact measurement must replace engagement metrics. Participation numbers do not reflect democratic value. What matters is whether public input shapes institutional decisions in clear and traceable ways. Demonstrating this link is essential for rebuilding trust. Without it, digital participation becomes symbolic and can deepen cynicism.

Third, the peacebuilding lens must serve as an essential safeguard. Peacebuilding offers practical disciplines vital in polarised environments. Conflict sensitivity demands careful assessment of power dynamics before platform deployment. Trauma awareness helps ensure emotional safety. Inclusion requires active, not passive, measures to bring marginalised voices into decision-making. Sequencing recognises that facilitated dialogue may be needed before deliberation in highly polarised contexts.

Translating these principles into practice requires several concrete priorities. Public agencies should adopt procurement standards that require open-source platforms, transparent algorithms, and independent oversight of deliberation data. Funders should assess deliberative initiatives based on democratic impact rather than uptake or engagement metrics, using accountability scorecards to track the link between public input and institutional action. Professionalising the role of digital facilitators—through training in conflict sensitivity, power analysis, and trauma-aware engagement—would strengthen the quality and safety of online deliberation.

The boundary between “fragile” and “stable” democracies is no longer clear. Polarisation acts as a form of systemic fragility that erodes institutions from within. If this is the defining governance challenge of the current moment, then peacebuilding must become a central democratic skillset. The question isn’t whether to embrace digital participation tools, but how to ground them in governance practices that enable societies to manage conflict constructively.

Looking ahead, the test cases are already emerging. From citizen assemblies addressing climate policy to AI-powered platforms promising to revolutionise public consultation, each new deployment offers an opportunity to apply these lessons. The Toda Peace Institute’s forthcoming Barcelona workshop on deliberative technology and democratic governance exemplifies how practitioners are beginning to integrate these approaches. By focusing on governance rather than gadgets, on impact rather than engagement, and on peacebuilding principles as essential safeguards, digital participation can contribute to a more resilient democratic future. The alternative—continued techno-solutionism without the wisdom of conflict management—risks accelerating the very fragmentation these tools promise to heal.

Other articles by this author:
The Empire Has No Clothes: America’s Democratic Sermons and the Authoritarian Boomerang
Weaponisation of Law: Assault on Democracy
A Vicious Spiral: Political Violence in Fragile Democracies
Reluctant Truth-Tellers and Institutional Fragility

Jordan Ryan is a member of the Toda International Research Advisory Council (TIRAC) at the Toda Peace Institute, a Senior Consultant at the Folke Bernadotte Academy and former UN Assistant Secretary-General with extensive experience in international peacebuilding, human rights, and development policy. His work focuses on strengthening democratic institutions and international cooperation for peace and security. Ryan has led numerous initiatives to support civil society organisations and promote sustainable development across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. He regularly advises international organisations and governments on crisis prevention and democratic governance.

This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from the original with their permission.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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With collective commitment, Africa can shift from potential to powerhouse—and reshape global industrial landscapes. Two former students of the Zambian Industrial Training Academy, established with the support of UNIDO and other partners, work at an engineering company. Credit: UNIDO
 
When the world marked Africa Industrialization Day in November, UNIDO Director General, Gerd Müller reflected on the continent’s progress and the urgent investments needed to drive sustainable, competitive industrial growth. In this op-ed, he outlines why Africa stands at a defining moment—and what must happen next to unlock its full industrial potential.

By Gerd Müller
VIENNA, Austria, Dec 8 2025 (IPS)

Africa enters 2025 at a pivotal moment in its development. The ambition to transform the continent’s economies through sustainable industrialization, regional integration, and innovation is clearer than ever, and is picking up pace. The foundations are being laid. Industrial strategies are expanding, regional integration is progressing, infrastructure projects are advancing, and a young, dynamic private sector powers local economies.

Africa’s GDP growth remains among the highest globally, with more than 20 countries expected to have exceeded 5% growth in 2025. Manufacturing value added has increased in several sub-regions, and new investments in green energy, digital connectivity, and agro-industrial value chains are taking root.

Gerd Müller

We need to capture this moment.

What is slowing us is that this progress is fragmented and uneven. Manufacturing accounts for just over 10% of GDP across the continent. More than 60% of industrial output comes from low-value sectors. Trade costs remain roughly 50% higher than global averages and reliable electricity access still reaches only 48% of Africa’s population.

Although Africa is responsible for less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, it is among the hardest hit by the impacts of climate change. Meanwhile, commitments to climate finance and fairer credit conditions have not been fully met.

Borrowing costs remain high for African economies, which limits their capacity to invest in the infrastructure, energy systems, and industrial ecosystems needed to compete fairly in global markets.

The truth is that Africa has all the ingredients for industrial transformation. The continent holds abundant mineral reserves, including more than 30% of global cobalt, yet captures less than 1% of global battery production.

Africa added 2.4 gigawatts of new solar capacity in 2024 and renewable energy now accounts for nearly 15% of total installed capacity. The digital economy is expanding rapidly, with internet penetration reaching 44% and with 12% of manufacturing firms adopting digital tools.

Africa’s population, with a median age under 20 years in many countries, is one of the strongest assets for future industrial development. Fertile land, expanding urban centers, and growing innovation ecosystems point to a future in which Africa could become one of the world’s most competitive industrial regions.

What remains missing is not ambition or potential but investment on time and at scale to unlock this transformation. Infrastructure gaps continue to impede value chain development. Industrial parks, logistics systems, ports, and energy corridors need sustained and coordinated financing.

Regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area offers a historic opportunity to expand intra-African trade and strengthen continental value chains, yet this requires harmonized standards, lower logistics costs, and the full operationalization of continental instruments.

Development assistance can help build regulatory capacity and institutional capabilities, but it cannot substitute for the long-term investment needed to build industries that create jobs and drive structural transformation.

This is where the upcoming Fourth Industrial Development Decade for Africa (IDDA IV, 2026-2035) provides a renewed strategic framework to accelerate and transform the continent’s industrialization efforts, in line with Agenda 2063 and the 2030 Agenda.

Championed by the African Union Commission, the UN Economic Commission for Africa, UNIDO and other partners, IDDA IV aims to leverage innovation, investment and integration to transform Africa into a global production base, one that is competitive, green, and digitally enabled.

At a national level, UNIDO’s Programmes for Country Partnership (PCPs) offer a compelling vehicle for industrial rise. PCPs support governments and the private sector in identifying priority value chains, mobilizing domestic and international investors, strengthening policy and institutional frameworks, and developing the skills needed to build strong and sustainable institutions.

They bring together government, development partners, the private sector, and financial institutions around a shared industrial vision. They help create the enabling conditions that lower investment risks and accelerate the expansion of competitive industries.

Under the strength of this approach, governments and partners mobilized both public and private investment, to develop agro-industrial parks and agro-poles. PCPs have also helped deepen support for agro-processing clusters, creating jobs for youth and women, and have raised the competitiveness of the private sector.

The PCP approach shows that when industrial priorities, investment promotion, skills development, and infrastructure are advanced together, the results can be transformative and durable.

Africa’s industrial future is within reach. The frameworks are in place. The continental vision is clear. What is needed now is intentional investment that matches Africa’s potential. Fairer credit conditions, stronger climate finance delivery, and deeper regional cooperation will be essential to move from plans to large-scale implementation.

The private sector, responsible for the vast majority of jobs and investment, will continue to be a critical driver of job creation and innovation if it is supported with the right infrastructure, policies, and market opportunities.

Africa will not be transformed by speeches. It will be transformed by coherent action and long-term investment. The continent has the resources, talent, and vision required to stand among the world’s leading industrial regions. What is needed now is a collective commitment to scale what works and support Africa’s ambition to industrialize sustainably and competitively.

Source: Africa Renewal, United Nations

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