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Beeinflusst auch die Schweiz: Sturmtief Leonardo wütet in Spanien und Portugal

Blick.ch - Thu, 02/05/2026 - 13:17
Südwesteuropa kämpft aktuell mit Überflutungen und starken Sturmböen. Auch das Wetter in der Schweiz wird vom Wetterphänomen beeinflusst.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Weltpremiere von «Ewigi Liebi»: Prominente feiern Luca Hännis Schauspieldebüt

Blick.ch - Thu, 02/05/2026 - 13:17
Grosse Gefühle und prominente Gäste: Im Zürcher blue Cinema Abaton feiert die Kinoadaption des Kultmusicals «Ewigi Liebi» Weltpremiere – mit Popstar Luca Hänni in seinem Schauspieldebüt und Liebesbekenntnissen von Sängerin Paola Felix.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Ohne Führerausweis unterwegs: Somalier (19) klaut Auto und baut Unfall in Oensingen SO

Blick.ch - Thu, 02/05/2026 - 13:14
Ein 19-jähriger Somalier verursachte am Mittwoch in Oensingen einen Unfall mit einem gestohlenen Auto. Der Mann war ohne Führerschein unterwegs und wurde mittelschwer verletzt sowie vorläufig festgenommen.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

When Protection Meets the Sea: Rethinking Marine Protected Areas with Fishing Communities

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Thu, 02/05/2026 - 11:03

Graffiti in Kochi, Kerala, shows the whale shark (Rhincodon typus), the world’s largest fish, found along India’s coastline but remains poorly studied. In Kerala, fisher-reported sightings and landings led to the Save the Whale Shark Campaign (2022) with fishers and fisheries departments. Globally, the IUCN lists the whale shark as Endangered, with populations declining worldwide. Credit: Ashwarya Bajpai/IPS

By Aishwarya Bajpai
DELHI, Feb 5 2026 (IPS)

Melanie Brown has been fishing salmon in Bristol Bay, Alaska, for more than 30 years. An Indigenous fisherwoman and a coordinating committee member of the World Forum of Fisher Peoples, she speaks about the sea with deep care and lived knowledge.

When interviewed for IPS on Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), a global conservation policy introduced by the IUCN in 1999, Brown sounded both hopeful and cautious.

“It’s interesting,” she said. “Where I fish in Bristol Bay, if you follow the river upstream, it eventually reaches a lake system. Right at the point where the lake meets the river, there is a national park.”

Brown fishes the Naknek River, which has had a steady salmon run for years.

Melanie Brown, an Indigenous fisherwoman and a Coordinating Committee member of the World Forum of Fisher Peoples.

“I really believe it’s because of that park,” she said. The park, Katmai National Park, was created long before the UN’s 30×30 target — the global goal to protect 30 per cent of land and sea by 2030 — was signed in December 2022. It was first protected after a historic volcanic eruption in 1922 and later became a tourist attraction. Inside the park is Brooks Falls, where bears are often seen catching salmon.

Indigenous people are still allowed to fish in parts of the park, but only with special permission. Brown explained how salmon change when they enter freshwater.

“In the ocean, they’re shiny and silver. In freshwater, they turn red. They look different. They taste different.” Brown continues, “They stop feeding once they hit freshwater. All they care about is spawning. Dried salmon is important for us. It’s how we preserve food.”

She said this kind of protection has worked because it didn’t erase Indigenous fishing. But when it comes to Marine Protected Areas, she has mixed feelings.

“If an MPA stops people from doing their traditional fishing in places they’ve always fished, that’s wrong,” she said. “That shouldn’t happen unless there’s a real overfishing problem.”

Brown believes decisions should be made with the fishing communities.

“You can’t just draw a fenced area on a map and tell people they can’t go there anymore,” she said. “You need to work it out with the regulatory bodies and the fishers.”

Still, Brown knows MPAs can work if they are written well. In southeast Alaska, she said, a marine protected area was created to stop factory trawlers. “Small boat fishing is still allowed. The big industrial boats are kept out, but local fishers can continue.”

For her, the lesson is simple: protection and fishing do not have to be in conflict when communities are involved.

Community Custodianship in Kerala

Kumar Sahayaraju, a marine researcher with Friends of Marine Life (FML).

That idea of community involvement also emerged in an interview with Kumar Sahayaraju, a marine researcher with Friends of Marine Life (FML), who is also from a traditional fishing community in Trivandrum, Kerala, and a scuba diver. He believes MPAs only make sense when they are shaped by the people who live with the sea.

“It would be good if marine protected areas were created with community involvement,” he told  IPS. “That’s why internationally there is a push for co-management — a bottom-up approach.”

Sahayaraj spoke about reefs off the coast of Trivandrum — underwater ecosystems that fishing communities have used for generations. “These reefs were part of our traditional fishing grounds,” he said. “They were like a commons.”

But large mechanised and trawler boats have now entered these reef areas. “They are damaging the reefs and catching all the fish,” he said. “These reef fish supported traditional fishers for generations.”

Like Brown, Sahayaraju sees MPAs as a possible tool.

“In a situation like this, an MPA could give custodianship back to traditional fishers and stop destructive fishing methods,” he said. But he stressed that protection alone is not enough. “Access, authority and custodianship must remain with the community. That’s the only way MPAs can work for people and for the ocean.”

This tension between protection and access is playing out across the world as governments push new conservation solutions to deal with climate change and biodiversity loss. One of the biggest is the UN Convention on Biological Diversity’s 30×30 target. MPAs are now central to this goal.

Global Targets, Local Realities

Nayana Udayashankar, Senior Programme Officer at Dakshin Foundation.

Nayana Udayashankar, Senior Programme Officer at Dakshin Foundation, who works at the intersection of law, policy and marine conservation, explained that in India, Marine Protected Areas are legally set up under the Wildlife Protection Act, 1972, and future MPAs will follow the amended Act of 2022.

“This law allows two kinds of conservation measures,” she said. “One is area-based protection, and the other is species-based protection.” MPAs, she added, fall under different categories of protected areas within this law. The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) has notified several MPAs across the country, including the Gulf of Mannar National Park off the coast of Tamil Nadu.

But Udayashankar questioned the core logic behind how many MPAs are designed.

“The fundamental idea of MPAs is often ‘no-take’ and the exclusion of humans from certain spaces,” she said. “That approach doesn’t always work for marine conservation.”

According to her, area-based protection in the sea is especially difficult.

“Marine life doesn’t stay in fixed ranges,” she explained. “Fish move constantly. You can’t just draw a boundary or fence off a part of the ocean and expect everything to stay inside it.”

She also pointed to wider contradictions in how conservation is practised.

“Several studies by agencies like CMFRI and the Gulf of Mannar Marine Biosphere Reserve Trust have clearly shown the ecological importance of both the Gulf of Mannar and the adjacent Palk Bay,” she said. “But at the same time, ecologically damaging activities just outside these MPAs continue.”

Unsustainable fishing practices and other coastal activities, she warned, threaten this rich marine ecosystem and undermine both conservation goals and sustainable development efforts.

Udayashankar stressed that she is not against conservation.

“A large number of people depend on marine resources for their livelihoods and income,” she said. “Sustainable fishing and other nature-based activities should be at the heart of any serious marine conservation approach.”

She argued that conservation strategies must be site-specific and shaped by local ecology.

“Most importantly, fishers need to be at the forefront of fisheries and coastal management, because they are directly dependent on healthy ecosystems.”

This may require changes in existing laws and policies. She pointed to alternatives such as Locally Managed Marine Areas, which Dakshin Foundation supports.

“These allow more flexibility and can meet multiple conservation objectives,” she said.

Udayashankar also highlighted Kerala’s fishing councils under the Kerala Marine Fisheries Regulation Act, where fishers participate in managing local fisheries.

“These initiatives are not perfect,” Udayashankar said, “but they are a step in the right direction.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 


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Categories: Africa, Swiss News

To Fix the Rupture, Trade is not Enough

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Thu, 02/05/2026 - 09:58

UN Secretary-General António Guterres (left), is participating in a meeting with the Heads of State and Government of the European Union in Brussels, Belgium. Credit: UNRIC/Miranda Alexander-Webber Source: UN News

By Simone Galimberti
KATHMANDU, Nepal, Feb 5 2026 (IPS)

Will trade be enough to navigate the current waves of chaos and disorder that are underpinning the ongoing rifts among competing powerful and hegemon nations and the rest?

Amid tectonic shifts in the realm of geopolitics and international relations, amid what the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently defined as a “rupture” in the rules-based multilateral order, trading is seen almost as a panacea.

Yet are we really sure that new and alternative trading partnerships like the ones the European Union has signed with the Mercosur and India are the only ways to cope with an increasingly unpredictable American administration and an over confident and more ambitious China?

Mark Carney in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos a few weeks ago offered a blueprint for middle powers like Canada on how they can become less dependent on big hegemon powers.

While he was tacitly describing a tactic to tackle a bossy, unpredictable and more and more authoritarian president south to the border, Mr. Carney provided a foundational framework on how countries like Canada can leverage its natural resources and bet big on the power of trade with alternative markets.

No one doubts that trade can open valuable new options for established economies as well for new emerging ones like India.

The EU has also pivoted to this realm, using new commercial deals as a way to strengthen its own resilience and boost its economy while having no other options than maintaining a good relationship with the USA. But a playbook entirely focused on trade will also hit the wall.

While useful in the short term to escape from or at least try dodging expansionist maneuverings from Washington or Beijing, trade has limitations as well. A comprehensive and long-term response to these new difficult emerging circumstances cannot but be political.

Trade should be seen as a part of a broader toolkit of policies centered on nations committing themselves to invest more on regional projects of cooperation with other nations.

Strengthening political ties among neighboring nations through enhanced economic partnerships could offer the initial impetus to a new form of international regionalism.

Yet nations, while capitalizing on the economic dimensions of their bilateral relationships, should also be powered by a bolder, wider and importantly, more inspiring design.

The need for initiatives that, by intent, go beyond economics while dealing with other nations, would provide the space to imagine new political entities that could get respected and even compete with the existing hegemonic powers.

Imagine how trade and economics was underpinning and turbocharging the project of regional cooperation in post second world war Europe.

With the time, what was a mere economic association, a successful story of cooperation among equals , the European Economic Community turned into something more visionary and braver, a project of regional integration.

As we know from the recent episodes of confrontations generated across the Atlantic that humiliated and defamed Europe, this project is far from being accomplished.

Capitals from around the world, in the Global South and Global North alike, need to understand one thing: only the pursuit of a wider vision with multiple and complementary elements of integration that transcend economy, can offer them the safest route to be able to remain independent.

The building of regional cooperation frameworks, think of Association of South East Asian Nations or the Southern Africa Development Community, can offer a pathway to uphold their members’ internal legitimacy among the citizens while at the same time, cementing their power in the realm of international relations.

Yet the lesson from Europe is clear: economic cooperation and even economic based integration can only go so far.

Only an unequivocal support for more audacious projects can provide states with the leverage needed to deal with few but unrestrained hegemonic powers like China and Russia but also the USA with the second Trump administration.

As difficult and daunting as it is, only regional integration can offer nations a degree of collective power that will earn them some decent amounts of respect. Unfortunately, even regional cooperation is in shambles.

The Southern Common Market or Mercosur despite hitting the headlines with the recent signing of a trade agreement with the EU, (an agreement that the European Parliament, the semi-legislative chamber of the EU, “paralyzed” it with a vote to deferring its legality to the European Court of Justice) is nowhere resembling a politically integrated body of nations.

Who remembers the existence of the Union of South American Nations or UNASUR? Even ASEAN, seen as a model of regional cooperation, is at risk of losing its credibility with its famed “centrality” being put in question.

In Africa, the potential of SADC has evaporated while the most promising and bold attempt of building a political union, the East African Community (EAC) that was supposed to transform itself into a real federation, the East African Federation, also lost considerable steam.

Thanks to Mr. Trump’s ego and dramas stemming from it, the EU is now forced to reconsider its current trajectory of regional integration.

At this current pace and course, the EU will never be able to stand its ground and remain united and cohesive in tackling both overt and veiled threats and blackmails from the hegemonic powers vying to dominate the world.

The EU must be able to project power beyond its economic realm as Mario Draghi, the former Italian Prime Minister and President of the European Central Bank recently shared at the KU Leuven University in Belgium.

“Power requires Europe to move from confederation to federation” because as things stand now, Europe cannot even imagine to be able to survive as it is now.

“ “This is a future in which Europe risks becoming subordinated, divided and de-industrialized at once, and a Europe that cannot defend its interests will not preserve its values for longer.”

Mr Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, should be praised for mincing no words in Davos. But rupture in the current multilateral order cannot be fixed with band aid solutions.

As much as important trade remains, it is going to be delusional to believe that, alone, it can do the job, in sewing and patching up the rupture that has been created and offer a very potent but still incomplete solution for nations.

We need initiatives that, by design, are fit to build political projects that, while start with nation states at the center, are able to envision, in a not too far horizon, a much more daring political project.

Brussels, as the de facto capital of the EU, could again provide a blueprint for this quantum jump towards a new phase of the European political project that can finally pursue deeper forms of union that, inescapably, would embrace federalism.

After all, the best way to preserve a nation’s standing is to invest in new forms of shared sovereignty.

This should not be a priority only for middle powers like Canada or the members of the EU. Even developing nations must come to terms with this new order and understand that their survival will be only guaranteed through ambitious initiatives of regional cooperation that have only the sky as the limit.

Unfortunately for Mr Carney and Canada, geography is unforgiving.

Who knows, perhaps we could imagine what are now unimaginable ties that would perpetually bind Ottawa with Europe or Mexico and the Caribbean.

Simone Galimberti writes about the SDGs, youth-centered policy-making and a stronger and better United Nations.

IPS UN Bureau

 


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Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Aider sans redistribuer : l'illusion des politiques sociales au Kosovo

Courrier des Balkans / Kosovo - Thu, 02/05/2026 - 08:22

Au Kosovo, les politiques sociales consistent essentiellement à distribuer des aides d'urgence, sans véritable stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté. Une politique qui peut même avoir des effets pervers, notamment en maintenant les femmes à l'écart du marché du travail.

- Articles / , , , , , ,

Algerian boxer willing to take sex test for 2028 Olympics

BBC Africa - Thu, 02/05/2026 - 00:26
Algerian boxer Imane Khelif says she would take a sex test if it allowed her to compete at the 2028 Olympic Games.

«Vielleicht etwas sanfter vorgehen»: Trump ändert Brutalo-Kurs nach tödlichem ICE-Einsatz

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 22:22
Nach tödlichen Protesten in Minneapolis zieht Donald Trump 700 Bundesbeamte ab. Der US-Präsident spricht von einem nötigen Kurswechsel, bekräftigt aber, dass man weiterhin entschlossen gegen Kriminelle vorgehen werde.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Zimbabwe's Mugabe latest former African leader to be mentioned in Epstein files

BBC Africa - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 20:57
Epstein considered approaching Mugabe about a new currency in 2015 - the latest batch of files show.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Gunmen reportedly kill dozens in Nigeria as US military deployment confirmed

BBC Africa - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 18:50
Shops and homes were torched in an attack on two villages in the western state of Kwara, a lawmaker says.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Neues Mega-Projekt in Afrika: Hier soll der grösste Flughafen der Welt entstehen

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 17:29
Der Bau des Bishoftu International Airports in Addis Abeba hat Anfang Januar begonnen. Er soll mit jährlich 110 Millionen Passagieren Afrikas wichtigstes Luftfahrtdrehkreuz werden. Geht die Rechnung auf?
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Grosser Polizeieinsatz: Influencer zündet Pyros mit Fans in Bulle FR

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 17:17
Die Freiburger Polizei stoppte am Samstagabend in Bulle einen Influencer und seinen Kameramann. Rund hundert Jugendliche hatten sich ohne Bewilligung versammelt, um seine Live-Übertragung zu verfolgen. Ein Jugendlicher zündete Feuerwerk und wird angezeigt.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Auftaktmatch in Gefahr: Hoch ansteckendes Virus grassiert in Finnlands Eishockey-Team

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 17:13
Norovirus-Alarm im olympischen Dorf in Mailand: Finnlands Eishockey-Team muss Spielerinnen isolieren und das Training absagen. Auch das Auftaktspiel gegen Kanada steht auf der Kippe.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

«Wer also anders denkt, ist dumm?»: Riesen-Wirbel um SRF-Verschwörungsdoku

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 17:12
Das SRF-Format «rec.» sorgt regelmässig für Schlagzeilen – weil es unbequeme Themen aus einem anderen Blickwinkel dokumentarisch zu beleuchten versucht. Die neueste Folge zum Thema Verschwörungstheorien sorgt für Freude bei den Zuschauern – aber auch viel Unmut.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Telefon-Terror in Deutschland: Deutsche ruft 200 Mal beim Notruf an – Polizei rückt aus

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 17:01
Eine Deutsche setzte am Montag zum Telefonterror bei der Polizei an. Kein Einzelfall – auch in der Schweiz kam es schon zu ähnlichen Fällen.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Leader of South Africa's second largest party to step down

BBC Africa - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 14:47
The surprise move may threaten the stability of the coalition government of which the DA is a key partner.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Perfektion ist tabu: Stressfrei putzen mit der 10-Minuten-Methode

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:52
Putzen kostet Zeit und oft auch Nerven. Genau hier setzt die Zehn-Minuten-Methode an. Entwickelt von der US-amerikanischen Haushaltsexpertin Becky Rapinchuk, ersetzt sie den wöchentlichen Grossputz durch kurze, tägliche Einheiten.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

Geschäfte in Belarus: Polizei nimmt AfD-Politiker bei Parlamentssitzung fest

Blick.ch - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:52
Die Immunität des AfD-Abgeordneten Jörg Dornau wurde in Sachsen aufgehoben. Ermittelt wird wegen eines Verstosses gegen das Aussenwirtschaftsgesetz. Einsatzkräfte durchsuchten am Mittwoch seine Wohn- und Geschäftsräume.
Categories: Africa, Swiss News

'Notorious Tanzanian drug trafficker' arrested during raid in Zambia

BBC Africa - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:48
Ahmed Muharram is among several suspects arrested in a major crackdown on marijuana trafficking.
Categories: Africa, Europäische Union

‘We Are Seeing an Economic Transition, but No Democratic Transition’

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:05

By CIVICUS
Feb 4 2026 (IPS)

 
CIVICUS discusses the situation following the US intervention in Venezuela with Guillermo Miguelena Palacios, director of the Venezuelan Progressive Institute, a think tank that promotes spaces for dialogue and democratic leadership.

Guillermo Miguelena Palacios

On 3 January, a US military intervention culminated in the arrest and extradition of President Nicolás Maduro, who had stayed in power after refusing to recognise the results of the July 2024 election, which was won by the opposition. However, power did not pass on to the elected president, Edmundo González, who remains in exile, but to Maduro’s vice-president, Delcy Rodríguez, under a pact that preserves the interests of the military leadership, ruling party and presidential family. Hopes for a restoration of democracy are fading in the face of a process that is prioritising economic and social control.

What led Donald Trump to intervene militarily in Venezuela?

The US intervention responds to a mix of economic pragmatism and the reaffirmation of a vision of absolute supremacy in the hemisphere.

First, it seeks to secure nearby stable energy sources in a context of global instability. In his statements, Trump mentioned oil and rare earth metals dozens of times. For him, Venezuela isn’t a human rights issue but a strategic asset that was under the influence of China, Iran and Russia, something unacceptable for US national security.

Second, it represents the financial elite’s interest in recovering investments lost due to expropriations carried out by the government of former president Hugo Chávez. Trump has been explicit: the USA believes Venezuela’s subsoil owes them compensation. By intervening and overseeing the transition, he’s ensuring the new administration signs agreements that give priority to US companies in the exploitation of oil fields. It’s an intervention designed to ‘bring order’ and turn Venezuela into a reliable energy partner, even if that means coexisting with a regime that has only changed its facade.

How much continuity and change is there following Maduro’s fall?

For most Venezuelans, the early hours of 3 January represented a symbolic break with historical impunity. The image of Maduro under arrest shattered the myth that the regime’s highest leaders would never pay for their actions. However, beyond the joy experienced in Venezuelan homes and in countries with a big Venezuelan diaspora, what happened was a manoeuvre to ensure the system’s survival

Chavismo is not a monolithic bloc, but a coalition of factions organised around economic interests and power networks. Broadly speaking, there are two main groups: a civilian faction and a military faction. Both manage and compete for strategic businesses, but the military is present, directly or indirectly, in most of them as coercive guarantors of the system.

The civilian faction controls areas linked to financial and political management, while the military faction secures and protects logistics chains, ports, routes and territories. Within this architecture there are various conglomerates of interests. There’s oil, an opaque business managed through parallel markets, irregular intermediation and non-transparent financial schemes. There’s drug trafficking, sustained by territorial control and institutional permissiveness. There’s the food system, which historically profited from exchange controls and the administration of hunger. And there’s illegal mining, where the military presence alongside Colombian guerrilla groups such as the National Liberation Army (ELN) is dominant and structural.

Maduro’s downfall appears to have been part of an agreement among these factions to preserve their respective businesses: they handed over the figure who could no longer guarantee them money laundering or social peace in order to regroup under a new technocratic facade that ensures they can enjoy their wealth without the pressure of international sanctions.

A revealing detail is that, while Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured, their children remain in Caracas with their businesses intact. Their son, Nicolás Maduro Guerra, continues to operate in the fishing sector and in the export of industrial waste such as aluminium and iron. This suggests the existence of a family protection pact.

We are seeing an economic transition, but by no means a democratic transition. Rodríguez has the reputation of being much more efficient and has had greater international exposure than the rest of Chavismo. She’s backed by a new business elite, young people under 45 who need to launder their capital and gain legitimacy in the global market. Their goal is to improve purchasing power and reduce hunger in order to confer respectability on the regime, while maintaining social control.

What caused the recent resurgence of the territorial conflict with Guyana?

The conflict over the territory of Essequibo is neither new nor improvised: it’s a historical dispute and Venezuela has legal and political arguments to support its claims over the territory. For decades, the two states agreed on a mechanism to contain the dispute, which involved a temporary cessation of active claims and a ban on exploiting the area’s natural resources while a negotiated solution was sought.

In this context, Chávez chose to de-escalate the conflict as part of his international strategy. To gain diplomatic support, particularly in the Caribbean, he reduced pressure on the Essequibo, and as a result several Caribbean Community countries supported Venezuela in multilateral forums such as the Organization of American States. Guyana interpreted this not as a tactical pause but as an abandonment of the claim, and decided to move forward unilaterally and grant concessions to ExxonMobil to conduct oil exploration. These operations revealed the existence of large reserves of high-quality crude oil.

The reactivation of the conflict is, therefore, a combination of legitimate historical claims and political expediency. This wasn’t simply Maduro’s nationalist outburst but an attempt to capture new revenue amid the collapse of Venezuela’s traditional oil industry.

Oil remains the linchpin of the regime’s geopolitics. Although Venezuela has the largest reserves in the world, most of it is extra-heavy crude, which is expensive to extract and process and profitable only when international prices are high. In contrast, the oil discovered off the Atlantic coast of the Essequibo is light, comparable to Saudi oil, and therefore much cheaper to produce and refine. This economic differential explains much of the regime’s renewed aggressiveness in a dispute that had been contained for years.

What’s the mining arc and what role does it play?

In addition to oil and gas, there’s another source of strategic wealth that sustains the regime. The Orinoco Mining Arc is a vast exploitation zone in southern Venezuela, rich in coltan, diamonds, gold and rare earths. The ELN operates there under the protection of the army. It’s a brutal extraction system that generates a flow of wealth in cash and precious metals that directly finances the high military hierarchy, maintaining its loyalty to the system regardless of what happens to oil revenues or the formal economy.

It is noteworthy that, despite the US intervention and the rhetoric about strategic resources, the mining arc has hardly been mentioned. We presume it was part of the negotiation so the military would not resist Maduro’s arrest. The USA appears to have chosen to secure oil in other areas of Venezuela and let the military maintain its mining revenues in the south, since intervening there would mean getting involved in guerrilla warfare in the jungle.

What’s your analysis of the announcement of the release of political prisoners?

The announcement was presented as a gesture of openness, but the so-called releases are actually simple discharges from prison. This means political prisoners are released and go home, but still have pending charges and are therefore banned from leaving Venezuela and must appear in court periodically, usually every few days. In addition, they are absolutely prohibited from speaking to the media and participating in political activities.

This reduces the political cost of keeping prisoners in cells, but maintains legal control over them. Released prisoners live under constant threat. The state reminds them and their families that their freedom is conditional and any gesture of dissent can return them to prison immediately. This is a mechanism of institutional whitewashing: it projects an image of clemency while maintaining repression through administrative means that are much more difficult to denounce before the international community.

What’s the state of social movements?

Social and trade union movements are in a state of exhaustion and deep demobilisation. After years of mass protests between 2014 and 2017 that resulted in fierce repression, people have lost faith in mobilisation as a tool for change. Increasingly, the priority has been daily survival, particularly food and security, with political struggles taking a back seat.

Authorities have been surgical in their repression of the trade union movement: they imprisoned key leaders to terrorise the rank and file and paralyse any attempt at strike action. While organisations like ours have continued to provide technical support and training in cybersecurity, activism is now a highly risky activity.

What are the prospects for a democratic transition?

I see no signs of a genuine democratic transition. The regime’s strategy seems to be to maintain for the next two years the fiction that Maduro has not definitively ceased to hold office and could return, in order to circumvent the constitutional obligation to call immediate elections, which the opposition would surely win. During those two years, which coincide with the final two years of Trump’s term, they will flood the market with imported goods and try to stabilise the currency to create some sense of wellbeing. They will surely use the Supreme Court to interpret some article of the constitution to justify that there’s no definitive presidential vacancy.

Halfway through the term, they would no longer need to call elections. Instead, they could declare Maduro’s ‘absolute vacancy’ so that Rodríguez could finish the 2025-2031 presidential term. Thus, they would try to reach the 2030 election with a renewed image and a recovered economy, on the calculation that a sense of economic wellbeing would prevail over the memory of decades of abuse. They could even enable opposition figures to simulate a fair contest, but would maintain total control of the electoral system and media.

We are concerned the international community will accept the idea of an ‘efficient authoritarianism’ that reduces hunger but maintains censorship and persecution of dissent.

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SEE ALSO
Venezuela: the democratic transition that wasn’t CIVICUS Lens 30.Jan.2025
Venezuela: ‘Each failed attempt at democratic transition reinforces the power of the authoritarian government’ CIVICUS Lens | Interview with Carlos Torrealba 25.Jan.2025
Venezuela struggles to hold on to hope CIVICUS Lens 15.Aug.2024

 


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Categories: Africa, European Union

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