Africa

Entrance to the Hangar Convention Center of the Amazonia in the northeastern Brazilian city of Belém. The climate summit, which began on November 10 and is due to conclude on Friday the 21st, is debating issues such as the phase-out of fossil fuels and adaptation goals. Credit: Emilio Godoy / IPS

By Emilio Godoy
BELÉM, Brazil, Nov 20 2025 (IPS)

The heat in the Hangar Convention Center of the Amazonia, in the northeastern Brazilian city of Belém, has reached the negotiation rooms of the climate summit. Over the past 72 hours, one of the most delicate and significant discussions of this climate meeting has been taking place: the path to progressively abandon the production and use of coal, gas, and oil.

In recent hours, a global coalition of rich and developing countries, led by Colombia, has doubled down on pushing for a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap, while major producer countries resist it.

“The plan must have differentiated commitments, the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, and the reform of the international financial system, because foreign debt payments are punishing us,” Colombian Environment Minister Irene Vélez explained to IPS.

For the official, the 30th United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP30) on climate change must result in a roadmap. “People are mobilizing, demanding climate action; we have to start now,” she urged.

In Belém, the gateway to the planet’s largest rainforest, it is no longer just about reducing emissions but about transforming the foundation of the energy system, thus acquiring a moral, political, and scientific urgency. What was initially meant to be the “Amazon COP” has mutated into the “end-of-the-fossil-era-COP,” but the roadmap to achieve it is a toss-up.“The plan must have differentiated commitments, the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, and the reform of the international financial system, because external debt payments are punishing us” –Irene Vélez.

Two years after the world agreed at COP28, held in 2023 in Dubai, to move away from fossil fuels, Belém is the moment of truth, upon which the effort to keep global warming below the 1.5° Celsius limit largely depends—a goal considered vital to avoid devastating and inevitable effects on ecosystems and human life.

Thus, the discussion among the 197 parties to the United Nations climate convention has shifted from the “what” to the “how,” and especially to the “when,” questions that have turned potential coordinates into a geopolitical labyrinth.

In that vein, a coalition of over 80 countries emerged on Tuesday the 18th to push the roadmap, including Colombia, Chile, Guatemala, and Panama among the Latin American countries.

One challenge for the roadmap advocates is that the issue is not explicitly part of the main agenda, a resource that the Brazilian presidency of COP30 could use to shirk responsibility on the matter.

The issue appears on the thematic menu of COP30, which started on the 10th and is scheduled to conclude on the 21st, and whose official objectives include approving the Global Goal on Adaptation to climate change and securing sufficient funds for that adaptation.

Approximately 40,000 people are attending this climate summit, including government representatives, multilateral agencies, academia, and civil society organizations.

An unprecedented indigenous presence is also in attendance, with about 900 delegates from native peoples, drawn by the ancestral call of the Amazon, a symbol of the menu of solutions to the climate catastrophe and simultaneously a victim of its causes.

Also present and very active in Belém are about 1,600 lobbyists from the hydrocarbon industry, 12% more than at the 2024 COP, according to the international coalition Kick Big Polluters Out.

The clamor from civil society demands an institutional structure with governance, clear criteria, measurable objectives, and justice mechanisms.

“The roadmap has become a difficult issue to ignore; it is already at the center of these negotiations, and no country can ignore it. The breadth of support is surprising, with rich and poor countries, producers and non-producers, indicating that an agreement is about to fall,” Antonio Hill, Just Transitions advisor for the non-governmental and international Natural Resource Governance Institute, told IPS.

Activists protest on Wednesday the 19th against fossil fuel exploitation at the entrance to the venue of the Belém climate summit, in the Amazonian northeast of Brazil. Credit: Emilio Godoy / IPS

Poisoned

The push for the roadmap comes from the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, promoted by civil society organizations, strongly adopted by Colombia, and which so far has the support of 18 nations, but no hydrocarbon-producing Latin American country, such as Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, or Venezuela.

Colombia, despite also being a producer and exporter of fossil fuels, has presented its Roadmap for a Just Energy Transition, with which it seeks to replace income from coal and oil with investments in tourism and renewable energy.

Colombia’s 2022-2052 National Energy Plan projects long-term reductions in fossil fuel production. The country announced US$14.5 billion for the energy transition to less polluting forms of energy production.

But for the rest of the region, the duality between maintaining fossil fuels and promoting renewable energies persists.

A prime example of this duality is the COP30 host country itself, Brazil. While the host President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and his Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Marina Silva, have insisted on the need to abandon fossil fuels, the government is promoting expansive oil and gas extraction plans.

In fact, just weeks before the opening of COP30, the state-owned oil group Petrobras received a permit for oil exploration in the Atlantic, just kilometers from the mouth of the Amazon River.

But Lula and his team committed that this summit in the heart of the Amazon would be “the COP of truth” and “the COP of implementation,” and the issue of fossil fuels has become central to the negotiations, which Lula joined on Wednesday the 19th to give a push to the talks and the outcomes.

In their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—the set of mitigation and adaptation policies countries must present to comply with the Paris Agreement on climate change signed in 2015 at COP21—Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, or Chile avoid mentioning a managed phase-out of fossil fuels.

Simply put, they argue they cannot let go of the old vine before grasping the new one. This stance also involves a delicate aspect, as nations like Ecuador depend on revenues from hydrocarbon exploitation.

Therefore, the Global South has insisted on its demand for funding from rich nations, due to their contribution to the climate disaster through fossil fuel exploitation since the 17th century.

The result of the presented policies is alarming: although many countries have increased their emission reduction targets on paper, they lack details on phasing out production. The only existing roadmap is the growing extractive one.

In fact, the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement process, originating from COP28, demanded that countries take measures to move towards a fossil-free era.

The argument is unequivocal: various estimates indicate that fossil fuels contribute 86% of greenhouse gas emissions, the cause of global warming.

But a key point is where to start. For Uitoto indigenous leader Fanny Kuiru Castro, the new general coordinator of the Coordinator of Indigenous Organizations of the Amazon Basin –which  brings together the more than 350 native peoples of the eight countries sharing the biome–, the starting point must precisely be at-risk regions like the Amazon.

“It is a priority. If there isn’t a clear signal that we must proceed gradually, it means the summit has failed and does not want to adopt that commitment. We will have another 30 years of speeches,” she told IPS, alluding to that number of summits without substantial results.

In the Amazon, oil blocks threaten 31 million hectares or 12% of the total area, mining threatens 9.8 million, and timber concessions threaten 2.4 million.

And in that direction, a major obstacle arises: how to finance the phase-out. The roadmap has a direct link to the financial goals aimed at the Global South, with a demand for US$1.2 trillion in funding for climate action starting in 2035.

“Can the COP deliver the financial backing that countries need to reinvent their economies in time to guarantee just and inclusive development?” Hill questioned.

The atmosphere in Belém is of a different urgency compared to Dubai or Baku, where COP29 was held a year ago. The roadmap to a world free of fossil fuel smoke remains a blurry map, drawn freehand on ground that is heating up far too quickly.

In Belém, humanity is deciding whether to brake gradually or to accelerate, with the air conditioning on and a full tank.

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Negotiations take place throughout the day and now late into the night. Credit: UN Climate Change/Kiara Worth

By Joyce Chimbi
BELÉM, Brazil, Nov 19 2025 (IPS)

At a Conference of the Parties, where science intersects with politics, reaching agreements is often a tricky business. What is inside the last-minute negotiations as the COP presidency tries to get the parties to agreement at the final plenary?

COP negotiators are diplomats and government officials who meet at the Conference of the Parties to negotiate and agree on how to address climate change. They are also often joined by COP delegates’ representatives from civil society, social movements and businesses.

As representatives of their respective countries that are parties to the UNFCCC treaty, they discuss, debate, and haggle over their preferred wording of texts and legally binding agreements regarding how to address climate change during closed-door sessions.

Windowless Closed-Door Meetings

These closed-door meetings are often also windowless, and negotiators often lose track of time as they work through extensive documentation and diverse national positions to form a final agreement towards the end of the COP summit schedule.

COP 30, Belém, is posting a daily photographic glimpse into the collective effort to build trust, dialogue, and cooperation to accelerate meaningful climate action and deliver its benefits to all. Many hope this message will permeate inside these rooms.

The UN climate summit has now entered its final stages. The Brazilian COP30 Presidency has extended working hours, scheduling late-night meetings for the last two nights—Monday and Tuesday, Nov 17 and 18, 2025.

Tonight might not be any different, as the COP30 Presidency pushes for a rapid compromise and conclusion of a significant part of negotiations to pave the way for a “plenary to gavel the Belém political package.”

After all, the COP is where the science of the Paris Agreement intersects with politics.

The Elusive True Mutirão 

The COP30 Presidency is urging all “negotiators to join in a true mutirão—a collective mobilization of minds, hearts, and hands,” saying this approach helps “accelerate the pace, bridge divides, and focus not on what separates us, but on what unites us in purpose and humanity.”

But this is the point in the negotiations, even in a ‘COP of truth,’ as COP30 was staged to be, where the real claws come out amid accusations of protectionism, trade tensions and geopolitical dynamics as the worlds of business, politics and human survival intersect.

Even as UN officials urge parties to accelerate the pace, warning that “tactical delays and procedural obstructions are no longer tenable” and that deferring challenging issues to overtime results in collective loss, reconciling deep differences among nations is proving easier said than done even within the Global Mutirão—a concept championed by the COP30 presidency.

It calls for worldwide collective action on climate change, inspired by the Brazilian and Indigenous Tupi-Guarani tradition of mutirão, which means “collective effort.” The bone of contention at this juncture is what some parties see as weak climate commitments, insufficient financial pledges from the global North to South, and trade measures.

Protectionism

Trade measures are turning contentious and deeply debatable in Belém because of a difference of perspective—developing countries view them as protectionism, while some developed countries see them as necessary to level the playing field for their climate policies.

For developing countries, protectionism is a deliberate strategy by more developed countries to limit imports to protect their industries from foreign competition and therefore give them an undue advantage.  Developing nations say this is unfair because it restricts their ability to export and gain access to larger markets.

The core of the debate at COP30 is the inclusion of issues like the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in climate talks. For some countries, CBAM is a direct part of climate action and belongs at COP. Others say it is an agenda best discussed at the World Trade Organization.

The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a tool to put a price on the carbon emissions of certain imported goods, ensuring that the carbon price for imports is equivalent to that for domestic EU production. Its main goals are to prevent “carbon leakage,” or companies moving production to countries with weaker climate policies, encourage cleaner production globally, and protect EU businesses by creating a level playing field.

How to Go About a Just Transition?

The business of climate change is not the only thing that is complex and divisive. There are also small island states calling for rapid emissions cuts vis-à-vis the positions of major emerging economies. G77 and China are an intergovernmental coalition of 134 developing countries that work together to promote their collective economic and developmental interests within the United Nations framework.

China is not an official member and does not pay dues. It has been a partner since 1976, providing significant financial support and political backing to the G77. Developed countries such as the UK, Norway, Japan, and Australia are pushing back against their proposed global just transition, thereby prolonging the negotiations.

Developed nations are refusing the global just transition proposal by the G77 and China because they see it as a new and unnecessary mechanism and a duplication of existing structures. They refuse to accept the financial and technical support these countries are asking for to facilitate this transition. Simply put, they want a less strict framework that allows their own interpretations of existing institutions and funding structures for the just transition.

Where is the Adaptation Financing?

Finance for adaptation is similarly a sticking point. Developed nations are dragging their feet around committing sufficient funds to support developing nations to adapt to climate impacts and transition their energy systems. It is still not clear whether financial commitments will be embedded inside adaptation goals or remain as they are—separate.

Lobbyists and the Fossil Fuel Debate

Amidst growing tensions, it is also not clear whether this COP will phase out or phase down fossil fuels in the final agreement. The large delegation of fossil fuel lobbyists suggests it is too early to call. On the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), those who want indicators for measuring adaptation progress directly linked to financial commitments will not budge. The settlement of this matter could potentially take two years (or more).

Disagreements are ongoing about the mandate of the Mitigation Work Program, which seeks to raise ambitions on national emissions reduction. In general, insiders to the negotiations are saying general negotiation tactics are at play.

Some participants are employing delay tactics to buy time and ultimately weasel out of certain commitments; a lack of trust continues, as it has in previous COPs, along with generally slow progress on building consensus around various contentious issues.

This feature is published with the support of Open Society Foundations.

 

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Excerpt:

The COP30 Presidency is urging all “negotiators to join in a true mutirão—a collective mobilization of minds, hearts, and hands,” saying this approach helps “accelerate the pace, bridge divides, and focus not on what separates us, but on what unites us in purpose and humanity.”

Isla Mujeres national park is among the most popular in Mexico, especially due to its coral reefs. But these are under threat due to rising sea temperatures. Credit: Emilio Godoy/IPS

By Emilio Godoy
PUERTO MORELOS, Mexico, Nov 19 2025 (IPS)

Ezequiel Sánchez, a 63-year-old Mexican fisherman, owes everything to the sea. “My life, my work, my family,” he says, pointing around his office, which is located just a block from the ocean in Puerto Morelos town, in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo, Mexico.

Sánchez, who is married and has one son and three daughters, learned to fish at the age of 12 alongside his friends in this coastal town, which is located 1,630 kilometres southeast of Mexico City and had a population of almost 27,000 in 2020.

But the environment of yesteryear has changed, and fishermen are feeling the pinch. “Years ago, we used to catch more than 300 kilograms; now, we don’t even reach 200,” lamented Sánchez, who is also the Puerto Morelos Fishermen’s Cooperative Production Society director, in an interview with Inter Press Service. The society brings together 44 fishermen and 11 coastal fishing boats.

The causes for the decreased catch vary, including overfishing, rising sea temperatures, pollution, urbanization and the loss of habitats where fish feed and reproduce.

“This year, they are catching 80% fewer fish and 50% fewer lobsters. Development comes at a price, and we are paying it,” he argues, pointing to the increasingly built-up area around the office. “Now the buildings are taller. There is no drainage. So they drill holes in the ground and dump all the waste there. That ends up in the sea and affects the reefs”, he explains.

All of the above occurred despite Mexico’s commitment to implementing the Global Biodiversity Framework, which was agreed at the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in 2022. The framework includes 23 goals, one of which is the conservation and management of 30% of terrestrial and coastal-marine areas by 2030, and an adequate budget for this purpose.

The Mexican government’s goal is to protect 30.8 million hectares of land and 19.6 million hectares of marine zones by 2030.

 

Ezequiel Sánchez, a Mexican fisherman, displays a lionfish, an invasive species that has become a culinary attraction in Puerto Morelos, in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo. But fishermen complain of declining catches due to the effects of climate catastrophe, including ocean warming, and other anthropogenic impacts, such as water pollution. Credit: Emilio Godoy/IPS

 

The government has drawn a roadmap for achieving the 30×30 target with 75 measures around effective management, equitable governance, representation and connectivity; Indigenous peoples and communities contributions, and sustainable use.

However, the lack of information on the actual state of the natural protected areas (NPAs) obscures the results, despite the 2020-2024 national programme and the National Commission of Protected Natural Areas’ (Conanp) outdated evaluations. The programme established goals on conservation, effective management, and ecological restoration.

IPS confirmed the problems during a tour of three natural areas in the state: Cancún, Puerto Morelos and Isla Mujeres. Meanwhile, Conanp did not respond to the journalist’s queries.

According to IPS’s freedom of information requests, this governmental institution, responsible for conserving Mexico’s natural heritage, lacks data on changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, air humidity, habitat transformation, and the magnitude of the risk of environmental degradation in the NPAs, even though that information should be registered according to the compulsory national programme and the guide to analyse social vulnerability an climate change impacts on PNAs.

In addition, they do not have the implementation and management index, which is essential to know the condition of the natural areas. The index measures the progress of the national programme within a NPA and reflects the level of effective management.

According to Rosa Rodríguez, a biologist at the Institute of Marine Sciences and Limnology at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, conservation efforts through the creation of NPAs and their management, at least in Quintana Roo, have been unsuccessful.

“For a while, the NPAs served to improve water activities and curb the number of permits, tourists and coastal constructions. Now, the impacts are being felt everywhere along the coast. The impacts are quickly observed”, she told IPS.

In the region, ‘Cancunization’, characterised by mass tourism, accelerated urbanisation and environmental destruction, is advancing.

 

View of the Nichupté vehicular bridge, which is under construction over the lagoon of the same name, which connects Cancún, in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo, with the hotel zone. The construction site borders the Nichupté Mangroves Flora and Fauna Protection Area, an ecosystem threatened by urbanization and one of the city’s few green spots. Credit: Emilio Godoy/IPS

 

Puerto Morelos is home to the 9,066-hectare “Arrecifes de Puerto Morelos” National Park and the 1,103-hectare “Manglares de Puerto Morelos” Flora and Fauna Protection Area. These are the main attractions of the area, which used to be a fishing village.

The mangrove swamp and reef are among the at least 25 protected natural land and marine sites in Quintana Roo. The state has a surface area of 44,705 km² –2% of the national territory– including a 900-km littoral zone, and had 1.86 million inhabitants in 2020. The state boasts 758,428 hectares under conservation –17% of the state territory. Overall, Mexico has 232 NPAs covering 23 million hectares of land–12.76% of the national surface–and almost 75 million hectares of marine territory, which is 23.78% of the national marine area.

But less than 30% of every Mexican ecosystem is protected, according to the World Wildlife Fund-Mexico.

NPAs are the primary means of maintaining ecological integrity and conserving habitats by conserving species, cleaning air and water, and providing food and income to communities. Impacts from land use changes such as deforestation, pollution, overexploitation of water resources and habitat fragmentation can therefore cause disruption to NPAs.

However, the mangroves and reefs in Quintana Roo and other coastal regions of Mexico are at risk from urbanization, rising sea levels, poor water quality, intense storms, and the presence of plastics and sargassum. These issues constitute fundamental challenges for environmental authorities and local populations, due to their magnitude, the political and technical solutions involved and the financial requirements.

The fisherman Sánchez believes that “’what is happening to us is worse than what they are doing” for conservation.

 

An abandoned boat in the Nichupté Lagoon in Cancún, in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo, just a few meters from the Ministry of the Environment’s headquarters, despite the area being a conservation zone. Credit: Emilio Godoy/IPS

Pernicious anemia

Despite the increase in the number of NPAs since 2018, the lack of regular evaluations and budgets makes it difficult for Conanp to provide adequate care and enforcement.

The resources allocated for conservation per hectare fell by 81% between 2006 and 2024. Between 2018 and 2024, the annual average totalled 80 cents per hectare; the 2025 corresponding amount equates to 52 cents.

Conanp’s budget has fallen from $135 million in 2014 to approximately $54 million this year. The agency has indicated that it requires an overall budget of between $66 and $76 million to operate in protected areas. Conanp estimates that $197 million per year will be needed for the next six years to achieve the 30×30 goal.

At least the good news: the Mexican Congress assigned some $77.5 million for next year, a third higher than in 2025.

There are also operational problems, such as the lack of updated management programmes. Only 141 of the PNAs have an updated programme, while 91 do not.

The plan is the core regulation and planning tool providing for NPA management and stewardship activities, measures and basic guidelines. When the government creates a new protected area, they have one year to produce this plan. Every five years, the plan should be reviewed and updated—a process which has not occurred for many of the NPAs. The plan standards also specify that people living in the natural areas take part in the process.

Between 2014 and 2020, Conanp executed the Resilience project, which focused on 17 NPAs and resulted in the development of nine climate change adaptation programmes and four management programmes, with a budget of $10 million. However, there is no evidence that it has improved climate resilience, at least in Quintana Roo, and the project’s final report doesn’t cover the implementation process.

Similarly, in 2024, the Global Environment Facility approved $18.5 million for improved management of five terrestrial and four marine protected areas, but implementation has just begun.

Despite the 2016 non-binding recommendation by the government’s National Human Rights Commission regarding the lack of management programmes in NPAs and their relationship with human rights, the lack of plans persists.

This absence undermines the right to legal certainty, to a healthy environment, and to effective participation, particularly for indigenous peoples and local communities with regard to the protection, use, and benefits of their collective property.

For Julia Carabias, UNAM Faculty of Sciences academic, the problem involves a mix of lack of adequate tools and better management.

“The priorities should be science-based decisions, guarantee of efficient management, programmes elaboration and execution, enough budget, attention to the areas’ owners’ needs and collective, coordinated efforts”, she resumes.

The situation is particularly evident in states such as Quintana Roo.

 

Paradise lost

Fabiola Sánchez, a Puerto Morelos resident, points to the development model lacking emission reductions and the consequent advance of climate change, with local impacts.

“It’s like when your defenses are down and you get the flu, you recover and get sick again. It makes recovery longer. The environmental problem has no expiration date or political color”, she told IPS.

This is compounded by institutional limitations like staffing, budget and political will. “It’s more a lack of administrative capacity to move faster. You can see the institutional system’s failure to address environmental issues”, she adds.

Satellite pictures viewed by IPS demonstrate the advancement of the hotel sector in the coastal strip that connects with Cancun. While these constructions were scarce 20 years ago, they are now more visible.

Guadalupe Velásquez, a member of the Manos Unidas por Puerto Morelos collective, which campaigns for environmental protection in the town, questions the creation of an NPA without the necessary management tools, a situation exacerbated by the real estate boom that disrupts the flow of water between the mangroves and the coral reefs, with negative consequences for both.

“Hotels block the interaction between the wetland and the lagoon. They are important, interrupted points of water discharge. As a result, the quantity and quality of water has decreased. The authorities have turned a deaf ear”, she says.

In 2024, Quintana Roo received almost 21 million visitors, the second most popular destination in the country after Mexico City. Puerto Morelos, with 27,000 permanent residents, received 968,536.

Depending on their vulnerability, infrastructure and hotels are at risk of flooding.

 

Gisela Maldonado, from the consulting firm Kanantic, explains the situation in Isla Mujeres, which is part of the Isla Mujeres, Punta Cancun, and Punta Nizuc West Coast National Park, in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo. It is one of Mexico’s most popular protected natural areas for diving on the coral reef. Credit: Emilio Godoy/IPS

 

A wetland acts as a filter, moving water that helps produce nutrients from seagrasses and food for fish and algae, and they keep water from storms and release it when they go away. Atolls reduce wave strength under normal conditions and during storms, thus protecting the coastline and preventing beach erosion.

The mangrove area is home to red mangroves (Rhizophora mangle), white mangroves (Laguncularia racemosa), black mangroves (Avicennia germinans), buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus), several species of iguanas and lizards, as well as jaguars (Panthera onca) and endemic plant varieties, such as the granadillo (Platymiscium yucatanum).

The reefs are home to turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum), seagrasses, corals, and turtles.

Wilberto Antele, the Mangroves of Puerto Morelos flora and fauna deputy director, underscores “the efforts made” on NPAs, like vigilance, monitoring and the work with their inhabitants, but acknowledges the need for financial resources, surveillance personnel and biological monitoring.

“The work is too much and the most important thing is to work with the park’s allies. People are well aware that their livelihoods depend on the reef. There are many economic interests, many visions of development, and those shape which sites are preserved and which are not. Everything has a limit and those limits have become visible in recent years”, he told IPS, acknowledging that the main threat is land use change (deforestation).

 

Puerto Morelos, a fishing village in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo, has become increasingly touristy. This has had an environmental impact, with the proliferation of apartment buildings resulting in the generation of wastewater that ends up in the sea and damages nearby reefs. Credit: Emilio Godoy/IPS

 

Puerto Morelos is already experiencing the consequences of climate change, including rising sea levels and temperatures, and coral bleaching.

Since 2018, the Mexican Caribbean has experienced multiple episodes of coral bleaching and stony coral tissue loss disease that coincided with heat spikes in 2022 and 2024, causing the corals to peel and become defenseless. In 2024, further bleaching affected corals that had survived previous incidents.

Monitoring of 70 sites in Mexico by Healthy Reefs for Healthy People, a scientific network of countries in the Mesoamerican Reef System (MAR), found in its 2024 report that 20% were in critical condition, more than a third in poor condition, a third in regular condition and only 9% in good condition. The MAR, which is the second largest coral reef system in the world, extends more than 1,000 kilometers through Mexico, Guatemala, Belize and Honduras.

Despite this situation, Mexico has not provided any updated reports on the state of these environments since 2018.

To alleviate this scenario, since 2019 the state government has contracted the Parametric Insurance for the Protection and Conservation of Reefs and Beaches of Quintana Roo, which is designed to insure reefs and beaches in the Mexican Caribbean against hurricanes with speeds greater than 185 km/hr.

In 2020, the government received $440,000 in compensation for damage caused by Hurricane Delta, and in 2024, $850,000 for damage caused by Hurricane Beryl. This year, the government invested approximately $3.6 million in the mechanism, which factors in the speed of wind, the area where the storm happens and the compensation, depending on damages in the affected area. The Quintana Roo government has earmarked the proceeds for coral restoration, but it takes some years to see the results.

As if the storms and hurricanes that hit the Caribbean coast were not enough, the region has also been facing the growing arrival of sargassum, an algae from off the Atlantic African coast, for more than 10 years. This algae feeds on the organic matter present in the water as it passes through.

According to the Ministry of the Environment, the amount of sargassum appearing between March and August in 2025 was 60% higher than in 2024.

So far, some of their ecological and social effects are known, like beach erosion, nearshore waters eutrophication, mangrove ecosystems disruptions, risks to human life, and threats to the tourism and fishing industry.

But there are still many unknown aspects of it. “Reefs are exposed to many factors of stress and harm, which are difficult to divide. The sargassum leachate kills coral larvae, affects its embryo development. In nearshore zones, there have been reports of dead corals and marine pastures. But we need a better understanding of how it’s hitting fisheries, for instance”, explains the biologist Rodriguez, an expert on marine life and one of the few Mexican specialists on sargassum.

When floating and rotting, this algae blocks the sun and takes oxygen from corals, weakening them and leaving them vulnerable to germs, the main impact so far on them.

If the sargassum affects reefs, this could imply less habitat for fish and fewer catches. But so far there is no evidence of that chain in Mexico yet.

 

Fantasy island

Isla Mujeres, located around 20 kilometers off the coast from Cancun, is also not immune to the effects of tourism, pollution and a warmer sea.

At first glance, everything appears spectacular: the turquoise water and seagrasses are particularly striking. Visitors arrive on the island, which had a population of 22,686 in 2020, by ferry from Cancun in a journey of about 20 minutes. The island received 284,687 visitors in 2024, since the park is one of the most visited natural areas.

Gisela Maldonado, from the environmental consulting firm Kanantic, considers the impact of environmental protection measures on phenomena like the warming ocean and sea level rise that are beyond the control of the authorities.

“There is little the municipality can do. It doesn’t matter how many instruments there are if they are not going to be applied”, said the specialist, who spends much of her working life on the island. “The place depends on tourism and fishing. But it is already facing difficulties. Fishermen complain about a drop in lobster catches”, as in Puerto Morelos, she says.

For thousands of visitors, the reef, which is part of the MAR, is a great attraction for diving. The island, which is about eight kilometers long and almost one kilometer wide, is home to species of mangrove, coral and lobster (Panulirus argus).

But that massive attraction leaves a toll on the island, since they generate trash, plastics in one form or the other, and liquid waste.

The future influence of climate catastrophe could be significant. A one-meter rise in sea level would flood 35 hectares, equivalent to 6.6% of the island’s territory, affecting 832 people. With a three-meter rise, the loss would exceed a quarter of the island’s surface area (147 hectares).

Despite the urgency, there is no specific evidence that all of the measures stipulated in the Isla Mujeres-Puerto Morelos Corridor Climate Change Adaptation Programme have been applied; one seems half-finished and only two fulfilled. This lack of action seeds doubt about the future of other existing protected areas and ones yet to be established.

 

Satellite images show the advance of hotel complexes on the coast of Puerto Morelos, in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo, and their consequent environmental impact. These buildings disrupt vital water flows for terrestrial and marine environments, which can lead to flooding. Credit: Google Earth

Nakedness

In the heart of Cancún lies the Nichupté Lagoon, a haven nestled between urban sprawl and a row of hotels alongside the sea. The 4,257-hectare Nichupté Mangrove Flora and Fauna Protection Area plays a crucial role in coastal defense, but it faces threats due to its location within the city. Its resilience depends on legal protection and hydrological restoration.

The ecosystem, which is home to mangroves and crocodiles, is in moderate to poor condition due to disturbances, and is moderately vulnerable to the impact of storms and rising sea levels.

In the city, which had 934,189 inhabitants in 2020, only patches of mangroves remain, survivors of predatory construction. If they could speak, they would scream about how they were cut down to make room for houses, hotels and streets.

Despite the well-known situation and the fact that Conabio has issued a full alert due to the threats to the ecosystem, the federal government has been drilling the lagoon since 2022 with the piles of a vehicular bridge, which is almost nine kilometers long and affects the boundaries of the NPA, to connect the city with the hotel strip.

The environmental impact assessment recognises species migration and death, as well as loss of surface area and mangrove habitat fragmentation.

If the temperature were to increase by two degrees Celsius, coastal areas of Cancún in the southeastern state of Quintana Roo would be flooded by the end of this century.

Demands

Although the sources consulted disagree on the effectiveness of protection measures, they all agree that better measures are needed.

In light of the urgent situation regarding the NPAs, fisherman Sánchez is urging the authorities to be more vigilant in protected marine areas. “A comprehensive review is needed to refocus all activities,” he says.

Fabiola Sánchez, a Puerto Morelos resident, requests greater interest from the government in understanding the area’s natural phenomena and citizens’ rights. “You have to tighten the screws. The sea is not a pool; it flows and moves. What goes from point A to D of the NPA will affect areas outside the polygon. It is reductionist to assume that the NPAs are isolated islands,” she says.

Antele believes that tools such as the land use plan are useful for protecting the areas more effectively. “It will provide the legal basis to stop construction. Our efforts are geared towards ecosystem services and conservation,” he says.

For biologist Rodríguez, a prompt solution does not appear on the horizon, as determination and a larger budget are urgently needed.

“The strategies are not applied. There are a lot of meetings and nothing happens. That’s where we stay, in meetings, documents, strategies. But we fell short in the instrumentation. There are few mitigation actions,” she says..

 

IPS produced this article with the support of Internews’ Earth Journalism Network

 

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Recently, President Donald Trump made an unexpected and stark reversal from his previous position of opposing the release of the Epstein files. Credit: Shutterstock

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Nov 19 2025 (IPS)

With the longest shutdown of the U.S. government now over, the White House, Congress, the media, and the public have shifted their attention to the contentious and highly political issue of releasing the files related to Jeffrey Epstein.

The White House’s resistance to releasing Epstein-related documents brings to mind the famous line from Shakespeare’s Hamlet that the U.S. president “doth protest too much, methinks.”

For many, the president’s continued denials of any wrongdoing suggest the opposite is true.

According to a Marist poll conducted in October, 77% of the U.S. public support the release of all files relating to Jeffrey Epstein. Another 13% want some of the Epstein files released, while only 9% don’t want any documents released (Figure 1).

 

Source: Marist poll.

According to other polls, a majority of the U.S. public, 67%, believe that the government is covering up evidence and 61% think the Epstein files contain embarrassing information about the president (Figure 2).

 

Source: Polls of The Economist/YouGov, the Washington Post, and University of Amherst.

 

A similar percentage, 63%, believe the president is hiding important information, while 61% disapprove of the president’s handling of the Epstein files. Additionally, 53% believe the files are sealed because the president is named in them.

Much of the country’s population believes that the president does not want the Epstein files released because the information contained within is criminal or embarrassing. In a national poll conducted in July, a majority of the U.S. public, 61%, thought that the Epstein files contain embarrassing information about the president.

Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans in Congress are pushing for the release of all Epstein files and actively working towards a Congressional vote to make it happen.

Furthermore, a bipartisan group of Congressional lawmakers believes that releasing the Epstein files is a moral imperative that will help bring justice to more than a thousand victims and prioritize truth over political convenience. In addition, a group of Epstein’s victims are featured in a new ad calling on Congress to pass the pending legislation.

In addition to acknowledging its widespread support among the U.S. public, the president’s reversal also seems to recognize that supporters of the measure to release the Epstein files have enough votes to pass it in the House. However, the president never truly needed the approval of Congress, as he has the power to release the files himself

Recent news reports indicate that the White House is now in panic mode. In addition to criticizing Democrats who are pushing for a Congressional vote, the president has spoken out strongly against Republican lawmakers who support the release of the Epstein files.

Further complicating matters are the newly released documents from Jeffrey Epstein’s estate that contain several messages referencing the U.S. president. Additionally, a review by the Wall Street Journal found that the U.S. president was mentioned in more than 1,600 of the 2,324 email threads.

Despite this, the president continues to object to the release of the Epstein files, claiming it is a Democrat-manufactured hoax. He further asserts that there is nothing in the Epstein files that would incriminate him. The president’s supporters argue that the issue is merely a fake narrative intended to smear and slander him.

The Epstein files refer to the extensive collection of documents related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and the pedophile ring that victimized hundreds of children.

On August 10, 2019, prison guards claimed that Epstein had apparently committed suicide in his prison cell while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.

Initially expressing suspicion about the suicide, the country’s attorney general described Epstein’s death as “a perfect storm of screw-ups,” Subsequently, Epstein’s death unleashed conspiracy theories online suggesting that he was killed to prevent him from incriminating others.

For example, in 2011, Epstein wrote the following to Ghislaine Maxwell, his associate and aide: “I want you to realize that the dog that hasn’t barked is trump … (victim) spent hours at my house with him.” In 2018, Epstein further wrote, “I am the one able to take him down and you see, I know how dirty donald is”.

The president’s name also appeared in Epstein’s correspondence, indicating that he was aware of Epstein’s activities. Despite previously praising Epstein as a “terrific guy”, the president now claims that they barely knew each other.

National polling data from mid-2025 shows that nearly half of the U.S. public, about 46%, believed the president was involved in Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes.

A growing number of the U.S. population support the release of the Epstein files to ensure all information is available, allowing the innocent to go free, and ensuring the guilty face judgment.

After months of attempting to delay or prevent a vote and a discharge petition by Democrats, joined by four Republicans, the House of Representatives reached the 218-signature threshold. On 18 November, the House voted on legislation to compel the Department of Justice to release all its case files tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

After the legislation passed 427 to1 in the House, the Senate considered mandating the release of the files. Similar to the House, the Senate decided to pass the bill by unanimous consent without any objections raised. The legislation is now on track to reach the president’s desk for his signature, despite his previous attempts to kill it.

Recently, the president made an unexpected and stark reversal from his previous position of opposing the release of the Epstein files. The president called on House Republicans to support a proposal to release files connected to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, stating that “we have nothing to hide, and it’s time to move on from this Democrat Hoax”.

In addition to acknowledging its widespread support among the U.S. public, the president’s reversal also seems to recognize that supporters of the measure to release the Epstein files have enough votes to pass it in the House. However, the president never truly needed the approval of Congress, as he has the power to release the files himself.

Furthermore, the president’s reversal allows him to claim support for transparency. It is also seen as a strategic move that shifts the responsibility onto Congress, limits politically damaging defections by Republican lawmakers, and avoids a likely political setback.

This move also has the potential to use the ongoing investigation as a way for the administration to control the timing and extent of future document releases, especially those concerning the president’s ties to the sex offender. The situation is further complicated by the president’s call for the U.S. Attorney General to investigate several Democrats, with these investigations serving as a justification for withholding the files.

With both the Senate and the House having passed bills for the release of the files, the legislation is now being sent to the president for his approval or veto. However, it is unclear when the files could be released and whether they would satisfy those advocating for the complete release of the Epstein files.

In a significant change to his political strategy, the president recently announced that he would sign the Epstein files bill if Congress passed it. However, as he has done in the recent past, the president could change his mind upon reviewing the legislation and decide to veto it.

At this point, it seems unlikely that the president will veto the legislation as Congress has the power to override his veto with a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

If all the files related to Jeffrey Epstein are released, the information they contain has the potential to trigger the largest scandal in the history of the United States presidency. Such a scandal could compel the president to say something similar to the line from Hamlet: “Adieu, adieu, adieu. Remember me.”

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of many publications.

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