Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Après la destruction par les Turcs d’un bombardier russe le 24 novembre, les représailles économiques russes s’intensifient envers la Turquie. Quelles sont-elles et quel impact cet affrontement indirect a-t-il sur la relation russo-turque ?
Il y a d’abord l’embargo décrété par la Russie, qui doit prendre effet à compter du 1er janvier sur les produits agricoles turcs : volailles, fruits, légumes, certains condiments et épices. Mais comme l’a rappelé Vladimir Poutine, « la Turquie ne perdra pas que des tomates ». Des restrictions vont être mises en place pour l’embauche de travailleurs turcs sur le marché russe, envers les sociétés turques du secteur du transport, tandis que les entreprises turques du bâtiment devront obtenir l’aval des autorités russes pour décrocher tout nouveau contrat dans le pays en 2016. Les Turcs désirant se rendre en Russie vont de nouveau être obligés de demander un visa, dont ils étaient jusqu’ici exemptés. Enfin, la Russie a appelé ses ressortissants en Turquie à quitter le pays et a suspendu les vols charters entre les deux Etats afin de tarir la ressource du tourisme russe en Turquie, où se rendent chaque année entre 3 et 4 millions de ressortissants. Mais on peut aussi imaginer que ces sanctions aillent plus loin, comme la Russie le laisse entendre. On sait que les Russes, consécutivement à la décision européenne de les sanctionner dans le cadre des évènements d’Ukraine, ont décidé d’annuler en décembre 2014 le projet de gazoduc South Stream, qui devait relier la Russie aux Balkans via la Mer Noire, pour lui substituer un gazoduc aboutissant en Turquie, TurkStream. Or, la Russie vient de rompre les négociations avec la Turquie. Et alors que de plus en plus d’Européens souhaitent la fin de la politique de sanctions vis-à-vis de la Russie, Manuel Valls s’est récemment prononcé dans ce sens récemment à l’Assemblée nationale dans le cadre de la constitution d’une grande coalition contre l’Etat islamique avec la Russie. On ne peut exclure que ce qui a été annulé il y a un an entre les Russes et leurs partenaires européens soit remis au goût du jour. Il est certain, quoi qu’il en soit, qu’à l’heure où la Turquie irrite nombre d’Etats, son double jeu vis-à-vis de l’Etat islamique étant connu de tous, Ankara aurait mieux fait de ne pas abattre cet avion. Son isolement va sans doute s’en trouver sensiblement accentué.

L’accusation de la part de Moscou de l’implication de la Turquie dans le financement de Daech est-elle fondée ? Cette situation va-t-elle compliquer les efforts de coalition internationale contre l’Etat islamique ?
L’Etat islamique vend bel et bien son pétrole à la frontière de la Turquie et les autorités turques ferment les yeux sur la noria de camions-citernes circulant entre leur territoire et les zones contrôlées par l’EI. La Turquie est ainsi complice des terroristes dans la mesure où si elle décidait de fermer hermétiquement sa frontière, elle serait en mesure de très vite tarir la majeure partie des sources de revenus de l’EI. Par ailleurs, Ankara ferme aussi les yeux sur les combattants qui gagnent la Syrie depuis son territoire. Donc les déclarations de Vladimir Poutine sont parfaitement fondées. Quant à la coalition contre l’Etat islamique, il est difficile de la monter avec des pays qui ne veulent pas combattre ce dernier. On a beaucoup reproché à la Russie de ne pas limiter ses frappes à l’EI. Mais, selon certaines estimations, les Turcs frappent en moyenne sept fois plus les Kurdes, nos alliés, que les troupes de l’EI… La Turquie sert de base de départ pour des attaques américaines contre l’EI, ouvre son espace aérien aux appareils français bombardant l’EI depuis le Charles de Gaulle, mais se garde bien, elle, de trop précipiter la fin de ceux qu’il faut bien appeler ses protégés.

Lors de la rencontre diplomatique entre Hollande et Poutine, quels ont été les points d’accord sur la coopération franco-russe dans la lutte contre Daech ? Comment la Russie vit-elle son « retour en grâce » sur la scène diplomatique ?
Il s’agit d’échanges de renseignement entre services, de coordination sur le terrain entre forces russes et françaises. Quant à un « retour en grâce » de la Russie sur la scène diplomatique, l’expression me semble mal choisie. En premier lieu parce que la Russie n’a jamais été isolée sur cette dernière. Lorsqu’on l’a dite mise au ban de la communauté internationale, on sait bien que cette dernière, pour ceux qui emploient cette expression, ne désigne que les Etats-Unis et leurs alliés de l’Union européenne, soit un peu plus de 12% de la population mondiale. Par ailleurs, ce n’est pas Vladimir Poutine qui est venu à Paris demander l’aide des Français, c’est François Hollande qui est allé à Moscou demander l’aide de la Russie. La diplomatie française a ainsi effectué un virage à 180 degrés, en souhaitant une coopération franco-russe dont on ne voulait pas entendre parler auparavant, voire une coordination sur le terrain contre Daech avec les forces de Bachar al-Assad, option que Laurent Fabius a proposé mais a de toute évidence beaucoup de mal à endosser compte tenu du revirement complet auquel il se trouve contraint par rapport à ses précédentes prises de position. Les autorités russes, dans ce cadre, doivent donc discrètement jubiler.

Der diesjährige Generationengipfel der Wirtschaftsjunioren Deutschland e.V. fand in Kooperation mit dem Hauptstadtbüro der Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung e.V. statt. Debattiert wurde, wie das Bewusstsein um den Wert der Europäischen Union bei jüngeren Generationen neu entfacht und ein generationengerechtes Europa gefördert werden kann.

Mit »negativen Emissionen« sollte der Treibhauseffekt gemildert werden

Reviews und andere Überprüfungsmechanismen

You can read here the article on the day after the downing of the Russian plane, which was written by Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos. This commentary was published in the Greek daily Kathimerini on 3 December  2015.

You can read here the article on relations between the European Union and Turkey, which was written by Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos. This commentary was published on the website News 247  on 2 December 2015.

Der Militäreinsatz in Syrien bedeutet für die deutsche Politik eine Zäsur, sagt Sicherheitsexperte...

European leaders have made a series of high-level visits to Turkey’s imposing presidential palace and issued statements strongly emphasizing Turkey’s role and Europe’s own inability to manage the refugee crisis. Such moves, in combination with the victory of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in Turkey’s November 1 parliamentary election, have succeeded in boosting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s self-perception of grandeur.

There is little doubt that Turkey has borne a substantial burden in the Syrian refugee crisis and should be supported financially, together with Lebanon and Jordan. But the agreement reached by the EU and Turkey at a summit on November 29 makes no specific reference to access to the labor market or to primary and secondary education, which would make staying in Turkey more attractive for Syrian refugees. Nor does the agreement mention the creation of hot spots on Turkish territory or a readmission process for economic migrants.

The result will be much less progress in dealing with the refugee crisis than hoped or expected. Only the end of the Syrian conflict with a political solution involving Russia and moderate elements of the current Syrian regime will relieve the refugee pressure on Europe.

Furthermore, neither side has any illusions about real progress on Turkey’s EU accession negotiations. In view of recent developments regarding the rule of law and human rights in Turkey, the best both sides should aim for is closer cooperation on foreign and security policy—and then only if there is a clearer convergence between the two sides’ objectives.

This article was published on Carnegie Europe website.

Local government authorities have a crucial role to play in pursuing immigrant integration and in managing multi-ethnic diversity. Their involvement in this policy area has rapidly grown in many European countries. In Greece, however, the extent and nature of local government interventions in this policy area have not been yet explored. This is a major gap both in academic research and policy-relevant knowledge concerning the prospects and conditions under which the integration of migrants in the Greek society can be better achieved. Towards filling this gap, the purpose of the project LOMIGRAS is twofold: (a) to investigate the local government’s involvement in the process of migrants’ integration and the extent to which it promotes, or conversely hinders their integration, and (b) to develop a usable interactive tool to monitor and assess the effects of local government in promoting migrant integration. The starting assumption of this research is that local government institutions have a profound role in promoting, or conversely hindering, immigrants’ integration, regardless of whether they explicitly assigned competences in this area.

You can find more information here.

Mercredi 2 décembre 2015, Laurence Daziano était l'invitée de Thierry Garcin dans l’émission « Les Enjeux internationaux » sur France Culture.

Cet article France Culture – Laurence Daziano invitée à l’émission « Les Enjeux internationaux » est apparu en premier sur Fondapol.

Local government authorities have a crucial role to play in pursuing immigrant integration and in managing multi-ethnic diversity. Their involvement in this policy area has rapidly grown in many European countries. In Greece, however, the extent and nature of local government interventions in this policy area have not been yet explored. This is a major gap both in academic research and policy-relevant knowledge concerning the prospects and conditions under which the integration of migrants in the Greek society can be better achieved. Towards filling this gap, the purpose of the project LOMIGRAS is twofold: (a) to investigate the local government’s involvement in the process of migrants’ integration and the extent to which it promotes, or conversely hinders their integration, and (b) to develop a usable interactive tool to monitor and assess the effects of local government in promoting migrant integration. The starting assumption of this research is that local government institutions have a profound role in promoting, or conversely hindering, immigrants’ integration, regardless of whether they explicitly assigned competences in this area.

Based on the knowledge generated from the first research phase, the proposed project will develop a methodology and associated monitoring tool to support effective local immigrant integration in the four largest cities of Greece. Despite the fact that the EU Common Basic Principles have recognized the importance of monitoring and assessment mechanisms, a comprehensive methodology and monitoring tool for effective migrant integration at the local level has yet to be developed. The LOMIGRAS project shall for the first time establish such a tool. Specifically, the project will (a) develop a set of criteria and indicators to measure migrant integration at the local level, and (b) design a technological tool that allows stakeholders, such as local government authorities, other public agencies, and non-government organizations to apply and use this methodology in order to assess migrant integration outcomes. Overall, the project shall make an important contribution to academic research and policy-relevant knowledge both in Greece as well as other EU countries.

In sum, the project LOMIGRAS has the following objectives:

(1)               To explore the extent to which local government policies and measures mainstream integration principles, and assess their effectiveness in promoting the integration of migrant groups in Greece’s four largest cities: Athens, Thessaloniki, Herakleio and Patras.

(2)               To develop a methodology on the basis of which to monitor and assess the integration of immigrants in five policy areas in which local government in involved and/or has competences: employment, social inclusion, education, combatting discrimination, and civic participation.

(3)               To create a technological interactive tool that embeds this methodology and criteria for monitoring and assessing local migrant integration.

(4)               To present and disseminate the integration monitoring tool to local government authorities, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and other stakeholders, thereby raising awareness for the need to explicitly introduce integration objectives in the horizontal formulation and implementation of general local government policies, and

(5)               To formulate recommendations and best practices for promoting local integration policy management of migrant groups across Greece.

The research program is implemented in 2015-2016, and it is funded by the “Diversity, inequalities and social inclusion” program of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014 operated by the General Secretariat for Research and Technology of Greece.

For more information, you can contact:

Professor Dia Anagnostou:  anagnostou.eliamep@gmail.com

Dr. Eda Gemi: eda@eliamep.gr

ARI 71/2015 - 3/12/2015
Carola García-Calvo
Este ARI estudia cómo ha sido la inserción en la globalización de Australia y Sudáfrica en términos de presencia global, preguntándose si ésta se corresponde con el modelo reflejado en sus documentos estratégicos de política exterior.

On December 2nd, IPI together with the Permanent Missions of Italy and Namibia to the UN cohosted the screening of the documentary film on peacekeeping entitled “The United Nations: The Last Station Before Hell.”

Click here to view the event video on YouTube*>>

In 2015, the United Nations is celebrating its 70th anniversary. Among other innovations, members of the UN devised the novel concept of “soldiers for peace.” But can peace be enforced militarily? The original mission of the United Nations was “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war” by maintaining peace and security between states. Now that terrorists and internal conflicts strike far more frequently than traditional inter-state wars, what does international security mean?

For millions of people in conflict zones, UN peacekeepers serve to contain violence, representing “the last station before hell.” From the UN’s oldest mission in Lebanon, to the largest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to the newest in the Central African Republic, this film explores the central challenges in UN peacekeeping through field investigations and interviews with key decision makers.

Speakers:
H.E. Mr. Hervé Ladsous, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations
Mr. Pierre-Olivier François, Documentary Film Director
Dr. Lise Morjé Howard, Associate Professor of Government, Georgetown University (and Special Adviser for the film)

Moderator:
Mr. Warren Hoge, Senior Adviser for External Relations

*Please note: The webcast includes only the trailer of the film, and not the documentary in its entirety.

Severin Fischer,

Opinión - 2/12/2015
Miguel Otero Iglesias
El autor se pregunta si la presión europea para incluir en la cesta del FMI la moneda de China, que no cumple aún los requisitos, acelerará las reformas aperturistas en este país.

The impacts of global warming threaten to undermine the core objectives of sustainable development: Large-scale invest¬ments that aim to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) are indispensable. A just low-carbon transformation requires that mitigation investments seek to generate sustainable develop¬ment (SD) benefits while also minimizing their adverse effects.
A central goal of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is alignment of the climate and the sustainable development agendas. Govern¬ance and operational structures of policy instruments and funds should attempt to prevent local communities being confronted with the impacts of both climate change and climate protection measures.
Ongoing negotiations of the rules governing post-2020 climate protection measures offer the opportunity to address these issues. This briefing paper begins by analysing how activities under the Clean Develop¬ment Mechanism (CDM) both positively and negatively impact sustainable develop¬ment.
It then compares these experiences with emerging climate governance approaches by examining the Warsaw Frame¬work for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) and the Green Climate Fund (GCF).
Key conclusions:

• Activities under the CDM have both positively and nega¬tively affected sustainable development, depending on the type and local circumstances: Community-based activities regarding energy access reap high benefits for sustainable development and large-scale hydropower and reforesta¬tion projects can create negative impacts.

• The CDM requires stakeholders to be consulted at the beginning of the project design but does not include international safeguards to prevent ongoing activities harming local communities.

• More recent financing instruments and investment frame¬works such as the GCF and REDD+ have begun to formu¬late additional regulatory frameworks to promote sustain¬able development and avoid harmful side effects. While these frameworks still must be tested in practice, the GCF stipulates verification of sustainable develop¬ment impact and mechanisms for independent redress.

• The future of a reformed CDM for financing climate protection and sustainable development depends on political decisions. However, the CDM offers critical in¬sights for designing a new generation of multilateral cli¬mate finance mechanisms. Post-2020 mechanisms should create strong and harmonized standards to help align the sustainable development agenda with climate protection.

While sustainable development and climate goals can be mutually reinforcing, there may be trade-offs between these agendas. Future climate finance mechan¬isms should minimize trade-offs and allow for appeals by vulnerable communities affected by investments in climate protection.

ARI 70/2015 - 2/12/2015
Iliana Olivié y Aitor Pérez
En noviembre de 2015, pocas semanas después de la celebración de la Cumbre en la que se aprobaron los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS), tuvo lugar un seminario para abordar las implicaciones de esta nueva agenda global de desarrollo para la Cooperación Española. Este documento resume las principales ideas de este seminario.