Diplomacy & Crisis News

Longtemps marginal dans l'Hexagone, l'évangélisme y est aujourd'hui bien plus présent. Nourri par plusieurs influences, notamment celle des missionnaires anglo-saxons mais aussi celle de fidèles originaires d'Afrique subsaharienne, ce courant du protestantisme se structure peu à peu. Plusieurs de (...) / Religion - 2024/12

Russian ICBM and IRBM Missile Systems

The War in Ukraine has done more to deplete Cold War military stockpiles than any other event during and since the Cold War, including weather and rust. The dwindling numbers of tanks, troop carriers and artillery pieces litter the woods and fields of Ukraine, being disabled and destroyed by new simple drones and old artillery shells. If the war will not end by negotiation and diplomacy, it will likely be mired in more bloodshed from using ally equipment and a small number of newly made modern equipment, still costing many more lives than either side is willing to admit. With conventional land forces and sea forces reaching their limits, air forces being deterred by modern air defense systems, and missile systems being altered for purposes they are not designed for, the remaining strength of Russian forces are still preserved in their long range tactical missile forces.

A recent strike by an unconfirmed ballistic missile system by Russian forces in Ukraine appeared to use a type of SS-27 or SS-29 ICBM in the strike. While it was not a nuclear armed version of those types of missiles, it performed as a Multiple Launch Warhead missile, or MIRV, hitting the target with multiple warheads from one missile system. While it appears to be a smaller RS-26 Rubezh type Regional ranged missile version, or IRBM, it was likely one based on the SS-27 MIRV type. This non-nuclear version was altered to send a message to Ukraine’s allies without escalating tensions past a point of no return by using nuclear warheads in the field.

The rationale Russia used in deploying the SS-27 type missile was a response to ever increasing allowances by Ukraine’s allies in using longer range artillery against targets in Russia. Russian air defenses do not seem capable of stopping many of these munitions, and Russia has suffered internal losses due to these systems. Russia’s intact long range ballistic missile forces have rarely been used in a war, and is a fully equipped nuclear deterrent maintained over generations. With few options available with conventional arms, and a message of strength wanted to be demonstrated by Russia, the mystery ballistic missile has been re-introduced onto the battlefield. While inventory and a show of strength enabled the use of the SS-27 variant, diplomacy is likely still the best option by both sides over the future use of any ballistic IRBM systems.

New conflicts in the Middle East might bring another situation where these regional missiles may be used by Russia. With Russia’s most important ally in the Middle East being on their last legs recently, Russia may decide to use whatever systems they have left in helping maintain their ally’s regime. In the most recent scenario, the opposing forces do not have any modern systems to respond to Russia, and it is likely the case that adversaries in the Middle East may ignore the use of such weapons in certain circumstance as long as it is not nuclear armed, and does not create a big disadvantage to the US or their allies in the region. Diplomacy may make for strange bedfellows, and could alter the power dynamic in the region in ways previously unheard of due to the recent crisis. Diplomacy in one area may also provide the opportunity to end the conflict in Ukraine, and refocus on common threats to both the East and West. Only time will tell, but these days things seem to always escalate quickly and unpredictably.

La France vient d'admettre sa responsabilité dans l'assassinat, en mars 1957, du chef indépendantiste Larbi Ben M'hidi lors de la bataille d'Alger. Si cette reconnaissance lève le voile sur certains non-dits de la guerre d'Algérie, il reste aussi à explorer d'autres épisodes, dont celui du conflit (...) / France, Algérie, Guerre d'Algérie 1954-1962 - 2024/12

La France est le deuxième pays européen enregistrant le plus grand nombre d'accidents du travail mortels. De tels chiffres ne sont peut-être pas sans rapport avec la mansuétude qui caractérise le système judiciaire dès lors que des patrons sont assis sur le banc des accusés. / France, Travail - (...) / France, Travail - 2024/12

En 1957, le traité de Rome posait les bases d'une conception élargie de l'égalité salariale. Levier majeur pour les salaires féminins, ce principe est combattu par le patronat. Pour les syndicats, la bataille se mène alors calculette à la main. / Inégalités, Travail, Droits des femmes - (...) / Inégalités, Travail, Droits des femmes - 2024/12

Sous perfusion d'argent public, les multimillionnaires du travail temporaire prospèrent, avec un recours aux intérimaires qui n'a cessé de progresser depuis quarante ans. / Travail - 2024/12 / Travail - 2024/12

Une usine ferme, les ouvriers manifestent, l'État dit son impuissance. Les larmes coulent et, bientôt, la poussière s'accumule. « Ainsi va la vie », expliquent les médias, toujours disposés à taire la nature politique des choix du pouvoir. Comme celui de saper le travail et de briser les bastions (...) / Italie, Travail, Inégalités - 2024/12

Échapper au salariat — qui épuise, abrutit, ennuie — en créant sa propre activité ? L'idée séduit, notamment chez les cadres, dont une partie se reconvertissent… dans la « reconversion professionnelle ». Un marché porteur, mais fragile. / Travail, Idées - (...) / Travail, Idées - 2024/12

« Princesse et saltimbanque… sorcière ? Voyante ? » Anna Akhmatova (1889-1966), figure majeure de la poésie russe, grande novatrice, aura connu un destin traversé par les tragédies de l'époque stalinienne, et créé une œuvre unique. Le portrait littéraire qu'en offre la romancière Geneviève Brisac est une (...) / Russie, Art, Littérature, Fiction, Personnalités - 2024/12

La démocratie va mal. Ce serait la faute des institutions, des réseaux sociaux, de l'individualisme. De la « radicalité des extrêmes », voire de l'impuissance devant la violence économique, qu'il faudrait adoucir. Or le capitalisme se fonde sur la division entre l'économique et le politique, ce qui le (...) / Capitalisme, Droit, Démocratie - 2024/12

Capitalisme « éthique » ? La contradiction dans les termes reflète la volonté de l'ordre économique d'incorporer les questions environnementales dans une matrice marchande, à la fois pour se relégitimer et pour faire des affaires. Aux yeux des alchimistes du marché, le désastre social et écologique (...) / Capitalisme, Écologie, Entreprise - 2024/12

Faire front, faire face ou simplement dire quelque chose du monde tel qu'il est subi — accablant, grotesque et violent : c'est un combat à mener. Zerocalcare (pseudonyme de Michele Rech), héros italien de la bande dessinée militante, sort cette année son septième recueil. On retrouve le même (...) / Littérature, Fiction - 2024/12

Le parcours de l'intellectuel martiniquais Frantz Fanon (1925-1961) est multiple. Psychiatre, il fut aussi essayiste, anticolonialiste, tiers-mondiste, et épousa la cause indépendantiste algérienne aux côtés du Front de libération nationale (FLN). L'ouvrage du journaliste américain Adam Shatz vient (...) / Personnalités - 2024/12

Né en 1963, trois ans avant la Révolution culturelle, Liu Cixin vient d'avoir le rare honneur de se voir consacrer un musée, à Yangquan, dans la province du Shanxi (nord de la Chine), où il vit. Un musée tout entier, mettant en lumière son parcours, son œuvre, les adaptations qui en ont été faites. Ses (...) / Chine, Fiction, Art - 2024/12

In recent days, the Israeli Ambassador to Azerbaijan George Deek gave an interview to the Azerbaijani media, where he proclaimed that the friendship between Israel and Azerbaijan is blossoming: “Israel was among the first countries to recognize the independence of Azerbaijan; I think we were seventh. Since that day, we’ve had 32 years of a very close relationship that has developed into what we can today assess as a strategic partnership between our countries. This partnership has ranged across various areas in line with the development of this country and our relations with it, including energy, security, agriculture, water, and others.”

He continued: “Now, we see that this relationship has matured in such a way that, while in the past, relations were mostly government-to-government, today they are people-to-people, business-to-business, and civil society-to-civil society. We see booming tourism, a thriving trade relationship, and, above all, a very close political relationship between our leaders and executive powers. We should also remember that the relationship between Israel and Azerbaijan did not start only 30-some years ago. It began many centuries ago, with one of the largest and most prosperous Jewish diasporas living in this country alongside the rest of the population for at least 800 years, if not longer.”

Ambassador Deek added, “Unlike in other parts of the world, Jews in Azerbaijan have lived in harmony and tolerance with the rest of society for centuries. That, I believe, was the solid and healthy basis upon which the relationship I have described was able to thrive and evolve. We look forward to these relations growing and this strategic partnership strengthening further because we share many common interests, values, and cultural characteristics that make our people so close.”

“Last year’s trade between Israel and Azerbaijan amounted to about 1.3 billion U.S. dollars, including the oil and gas sectors,” Ambassador Deek noted. “While that may sound substantial, it’s well below the potential we could achieve in our relationship. We must be honest; until a few years ago, the economic relations between our countries were not very developed for various reasons. However, we’ve seen a breakthrough in recent years. This progress began with the opening of Azerbaijan’s trade office in Israel in 2021, which culminated in the opening of Azerbaijan’s embassy in Israel in 2023. These developments have injected significant energy into our country’s business sector.”

He stressed, “I understand Azerbaijan plans to appoint a commercial attaché to its embassy in Israel, and we may consider doing the same here. I believe this is a testament to the importance both countries place on our economic relations. Israeli companies are now recognizing the strategic importance of Azerbaijan, not only as a partner but also as a crossroads between East and West—the Middle Corridor—serving as a gateway to Central Asia, extending eastward to China, westward to Europe, and north to south. Azerbaijan’s ability to maintain balanced, positive relations with nearly every country gives it a unique position as a valuable partner.”

Ambassador Deek concluded, “Imagine if Azerbaijan were a partner to Israel in the economic sphere, not only for projects within Azerbaijan but also for joint economic ventures outside Azerbaijan. We could use Azerbaijan as a window into the broader potential of what our cooperation can achieve. Currently, our economic engagement with Azerbaijan spans various sectors. In recent years, for instance, Azerbaijan’s space agency Azerkosmos signed an agreement for an Israeli company to build a satellite, and there may be more such collaborations on the horizon. We also see extensive cooperation in agriculture, water management, dairy production, and high-tech. We are confident that our cooperation will continue to grow soon. I won’t deny that, since October 7th, Israel’s economy has been impacted by the ongoing war and the trauma it has caused. This year, the trade trend has not been as positive as we had hoped. However, I believe that as we overcome these challenges and move past the effects of the war, the economic sector—alongside all other sectors in Israel—will return to the momentum we previously enjoyed.”    

As we speak, millions of people who live in the Global South are experiencing the harsh reality of climate change, even though it was the Global North who disproportionately caused the problem.   Since the Industrial Revolution in the late 1700s, human beings have been the primary drivers of changes in the Earth’s climate. Countries that greatly benefitted from industrialization, e.g., America, the UK, Japan, Germany, etc., did so at the cost of pumping more and more carbon into the atmosphere.  China and India are the only countries in the Global South, who have greatly contributed to climate change.   Most of the main polluters are in the Global North.   

Between 1850 and 2011, the United States and EU were responsible for 79% of climate-changing emissions.  However, the countries expected to suffer the most from climate change are all in the Global South and are not top contributors to the problem.   One of the most visible victims of climate change are the people who live on coral atoll islands. 

According to various studies, about a million people live in coral atoll islands like those in the Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands. These islands are just a few feet in elevation, making them some of the places most at-risk from the rising sea levels that will result from climate change. Five uninhabited islands in the Solomon Islands have already vanished underwater in the past century. The Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands have the highest percentage of their land area at risk because they are all atolls; other countries also have low lying islands, but have more higher ground available to flee to and thus are less vulnerable than these islands. 

Nevertheless, all of the island countries are expected to suffer due to climate change.  Some of these islands, such as Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Martin, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, which are located in the Atlantic Ocean; Reunion, Mayotte and the French Southern and Antarctic Territories in the Indian Ocean; French Polynesia, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna are located in the Pacific Ocean; French Guiana is in South America, are colonized by France to date.  Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten, Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba are still controlled by the Netherlands.   In the West, people think that colonialism remains a thing of the past, yet unfortunately that is not the case.   French and Dutch colonialism is still alive and well.         

Yet according to a ranking that was performed recently, the countries that are not island nations yet are likely to suffer the most from climate change are the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Central African Republic, Nigeria, Chad, Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia and South Sudan.  It is critical to note that most of these countries are in Africa and have suffered under the yoke of European colonialism.    

A Greenpeace UK report claims that there is a link between colonialism and global warming: “The environmental emergency is the legacy of colonialism.  This was because colonialism had established a model through which the air and lands of the global south have been … used as places to dump waste the global north does not want.”  

Abbas Abbasov, the Executive Director of the Baku Initiative Group (BIG), recently gave an interview to the Azerbaijani press, where he highlighted the importance of the international community addressing the long-lasting impacts of colonial exploitation on the environment: “At COP29, we held a conference dedicated to the environmental impacts of colonial exploitation, particularly France and other European colonial powers.   We believe these issues have been largely overlooked in global climate discussions.  Our organization is committed to shedding light on how colonial legacies continue to affect the political, economic, and environmental landscapes of these regions.”

Abbasov continued: “We as an international NGO have repeatedly called for intergovernmental organizations to take stronger actions to address the specific needs of small island nations and colonized regions.   We hope that through increased global solidarity, there will be meaningful progress in securing the financial resources these regions urgently need.  With the participation of global leaders and organizations, we are hopeful that the call for a greener and more equitable world will not go unheard.”

For the first time in more than three decades since its inception, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) mentioned the term “colonialism” in a 2022 report. Leading climate scientists acknowledged that colonialism is a historic and ongoing driver of the climate crisis. “Present development challenges causing high vulnerability are influenced by historical and ongoing patterns of inequity such as colonialism, especially for many Indigenous peoples and local communities,” the report said. “​​Officials and scientists from around the globe now recognize the significant role colonialism has played in heating our planet and destroying its many gifts.”

“Instead of treating the Earth like a precious entity that gives us life, Western colonial legacies operate within a paradigm that assumes they can extract its natural resources as much as they want, and the Earth will regenerate itself,” Hadeel Assali, a lecturer and postdoctoral scholar at the Center for Science and Society, a Columbia Climate School affiliate, proclaimed.   “We cannot have environmental justice without reversing the harms of colonialism.” 

If one visits the war-torn Karabakh region, one can witness how Armenian settler colonialism created a grave ecological crisis in the region.   Six months after the conclusion of the Second Karabakh War, I visited the region together with a Russian delegation and witnessed polluted rivers with no fish in them, uprooted trees, burnt agricultural fields and mile after mile of ruined homes, surrounded by landmines and dirt roads full of potholes.   The situation was so grave from an environmental perspective that the region, once known as the “Black Garden” for its ecologically beautiful ecosystem has been dubbed “the Hiroshima of the Caucuses,” after enduring thirty years of Armenian settler colonialism in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions. 

However, after hosting COP29, Azerbaijan seeks to rebuild Karabakh as a green zone, thus inspiring other countries in the Global South who have witnessed the devastating effects of colonialism and how it has adversely affected the environment.  Last spring, I toured around Zangilan and saw that Azerbaijan recently built a green village with a beautiful fountain in the hopes of making Karabakh green again.     Around the clock, Azerbaijan is busy rebuilding homes, mosques, cultural heritage sites, and setting up agricultural and other green environmentally sound communities, so that Karabakh can be made great again.   

Indeed, the Karabakh of 2024 is not the Karabakh I first witnessed in 2021, thus showing to the world community that Karabakh can recover from the ecological disaster that it experienced and be rebuilt, smart village after smart village, with lush greenery being planted to replace the trees and other natural areas that the Armenians destroyed.    Indeed, under the leadership of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian settler colonialism has been relegated to the dustbins of history.   May the other colonial powers soon follow.     

A rear seat gunner in a slower propeller airplane, common in the First and Second World Wars, may become a more common means to counter drone threats in 2025.

An analysis of Ukraine’s air defence successes and limitation was published detailing the effectiveness of Ukraine and its allies’ air defense capabilities against many generations and types of Russian and former Soviet missile systems. Despite the unexpected limited success rate of Ukraine’s supported air defense and considering the idea that intercepting high speed ballistic missiles was not common knowledge prior to 2022, any defense against advanced missile systems is an impressive technological achievement. While the production of the more advanced missiles is slow and old Soviet stockpiles get used up, the next elements of future conflicts will certainly come from numerous and low tech systems now tearing up the front lines in the Ukraine War.

Drones from both sides of the conflict in Ukraine set an example for the use of such weapons all over the world. There are numerous accounts of drones crippling tanks and giving accurate and real time artillery coordinates, a recent team approach that is a perfect symbiosis for artillery brigades. Drones have become the scourge of armour, rapidly eliminating armour threats directly and degrading the assault capabilities of units while inflicting high economic and personnel costs on the opposing forces. Something that mirrors some of the most terrifying 80s sci-fi and horror films is the phenomenon of drones that literally and ruthlessly hunt down any soldier on the battlefield. Swarms of such drones are often spoken about by Russian soldiers, keeping them at a constant state of anxiety.

With conventional conflicts entering a stage of attrition, stalemate, and in some cases rapid progress, the drone effect will likely be seen outside of these conflict zones. Until there is a common and coordinated defense of drone threats, expect domestic attacks to take place using drones. Defending against a shooter or someone rushing a stage is something protective services are well trained in, but for the time being there is no effective defense against a swarm of armed drones targeting important officials. While new technologies are being rapidly developed, as in rapid fire burst ammunition for newly designed tanks, much of the defense has been via using older Cold War Oerlikon cannons in the field. There have even been some accounts of slower planes being used, with a copilot sitting in an open cockpit armed with a shot gun or other weapon to target drones. Aviation history may have certainly come full circle.

The response to a static battlefield will also come from asymmetrical attacks as seen in the Iraq and Afghanistan War, but will become more common inside of Allied nations. Infiltration through insufficient border controls have already resulted in security issues, taking advantage of perplexed policy approaches to local and immediate security threats. The inability to succeed on the conventional battlefield will result in attacks in urban environments, but instead of them being contained to Baghdad and Grozny, they will be seen, well, everywhere. The addition of crime, drugs and violence issues will reshape long standing trade and policy agreements until those threats can be considered neutralised. The issues of unstopped crime, innovation of drones, and active foreign agents needed to have been addressed years ago. The unfortunate results will become a signature characteristic of 2025.

Bondi replaces former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who withdrew his name from consideration.

A vital but halting supply of military aid has opened up the U.S. president to criticism from all sides.

Although the practical implications will likely remain limited, the ruling could hinder cease-fire negotiations.