Az egyik legjelentősebb horvát tengerparti város, Zadar (Zára) repülőterének forgalmát túlnyomó részben a jól ismert ír diszkont légitársaság gépei bonyolítják. Korábban itt kaptak képzést Mi-171-esen az Afganisztánba készülő szolnoki helikoptervezetők és néhány pályakezdő magyar pilótát is itt képeztek a horvát légierő Zlin 242-esein. Némi szerencsével el lehet kapni a Krila Oluje PC-9-eseinek zárt kötelékben végrehajtott felszállását vagy az ugyancsak itt települő tűzoltógépeket, de mindezt a tengerpartról javallott megtenni, mert a kerítés melletti szpottingot a horvát hatóságok kevéssé tolerálják.
Hazafelé tartó és kiengedett futókkal a leszállóirányra helyezkedő Canadair CL-415-ös tűzoltó-amfíbia a strandról fotózva. Addig jó, amíg csak egyet-egyet látunk ezekből a gépekből és a kisebb Air Tractorokból, mert ha folyamatos a sárga gépek forgalma, akkor az azt jelenti, hogy valahol bozóttűz tombol
Ugyanakkor a hajószpotting sem elvetendő dolog – ha valakinek van ilyen irányú érdeklődése. A repülőgépkövető internetes felületekhez hasonlóan a hajóforgalmat is nyomon követhetjük, rákeresve, hogy a nagyobb kikötőkben mikor találunk valami érdekességet a szokásos vitorlásokon és csúcskategóriás jachtokon kívül.
By Jomo Kwame Sundaram
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Aug 14 2024 (IPS)
When history repeats itself, the first time is a tragedy; the next is a farce. If we fail to learn from past financial crises, we risk making avoidable errors, often with irreversible, even tragic consequences.
Jomo Kwame Sundaram
Between rock and hard placeDeveloping nations’ varied responses reflected their circumstances, the constraints of their policymakers, and their understanding of events and options.
Hence, the global South reacted very differently. With more limited means, most developing countries responded quite dissimilarly to rich nations.
Hard hit by the GFC and the ensuing Great Recession, developing countries’ financial positions have been further weakened by tepid growth since. Worse, their foreign reserves and fiscal balances declined as sovereign debt rose.
Most emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) mainly save US dollars. The few countries with large trade surpluses have long bought US Treasury bonds. This finances US fiscal, trade, and current account deficits, including for war.
Vagaries of finance
After the GFC, international investors – including pension funds, mutual funds, and hedge funds – initially continued to be risk-averse in their exposure to EMDEs.
Thus, the GFC hit growth worldwide through various channels at different times. As EMDE earnings and prospects fell, investor interest declined.
But with more profits to be made from cheap finance, thanks to ‘quantitative easing’, funds flowed to the Global South. As the US Fed raised interest rates in early 2022, funds fled developing nations, especially the poorest.
Long propped up by easy credit, real estate and stock markets collapsed. With finance becoming more powerful and consequential, the real economy suffered.
As growth slowed, developing countries’ export earnings fell as funds flowed out. Thus, instead of helping counter-cyclically, capital flowed out when most needed.
The consequences of such reversals have varied considerably. Sadly, many who should have known better chose to remain blind to such dangers.
After globalisation peaked around the turn of the century, most wealthy nations reversed earlier trade liberalisation, invoking the GFC as the pretext. Thus, growth slowed with the GFC, i.e., well before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Markets collapse
Previously supported by the Great Moderation’s easy money, stock markets in EMDEs plunged in the GFC. The turmoil arguably hurt EMDEs much more than rich nations.
Most rich and many middle-income households in EMDEs own equities, while many pension funds have increasingly invested in financial markets in recent decades.
Financial turmoil directly impacts many incomes, assets and the real economy. Worse, banks stop lending when their credit is most needed.
This forces firms to cut investment spending and instead use their savings and earnings to cover operating costs, often causing them to lay off workers.
As stock markets plummet, solvency is adversely impacted as firms and banks become overleveraged, precipitating other problems.
Falling stock prices trigger downward spirals, slowing the economy, increasing unemployment, and worsening real wages and working conditions.
As government revenues decline, they borrow more to make up the shortfall.
Various economies cope differently with such impacts as government responses vary.
Much depends on how governments respond with countercyclical and social protection policies. However, earlier deregulation and reduced means have typically eroded their capacities and capabilities.
Policy matters
Official policy response measures to the GFC endorsed by the US and IMF included those they had criticised East Asian governments for pursuing during their 1997-1998 financial crises.
Such efforts included requiring banks to lend at low interest rates, financing or ‘bailing out’ financial institutions and restricting short selling and other previously permissible practices.
Many forget that the US Fed’s mandate is broader than most other central banks. Instead of providing financial stability by containing inflation, it is also expected to sustain growth and full employment.
Many wealthy countries adopted bold monetary and fiscal policies in response to the Great Recession. Lower interest rates and increased public spending helped.
With the world economy in a protracted slowdown since the GFC, tighter fiscal and monetary policies since 2022 have especially hurt developing countries.
Effective counter-cyclical policies and long-term regulatory reforms were discouraged. Instead, many complied with market and IMF pressures to cut fiscal deficits and inflation.
Reform finance
Nevertheless, appeals for more government intervention and regulation are common during crises. However, procyclical policies replace counter-cyclical measures once a situation is less threatening, as in late 2009.
Quick fixes rarely offer adequate solutions. They do not prevent future crises, which rarely replay previous crises. Instead, measures should address current and likely future risks, not earlier ones.
Financial reforms for developing countries should address three matters. First, needed long-term investments should be adequately funded with affordable and reliable financing.
Well-run development banks, relying mainly on official resources, can help fund such investments. Commercial banks should also be regulated to support desired investments.
Second, financial regulation should address new conditions and challenges, but regulatory frameworks should be countercyclical. As with fiscal policy, capital reserves should grow in good times to strengthen resilience to downturns.
Third, countries should have appropriate controls to deter undesirable capital inflows which do not enhance economic development or financial stability.
Precious financial resources will be needed to stem the disruptive outflows that invariably follow financial turmoil and to mitigate their consequences.
IPS UN Bureau
Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
Written by Anne Altmayer.
Aquaculture is an important sector of the EU’s blue economy and has the potential to play a more vital role as a sustainable food supplier under the European Green Deal.
However, while fish farming is one of the fastest growing food production sectors in the world, the EU, with its 1.1 million tonnes of farmed fish produced in 2022, accounts for less than 1 % of global production. For comparison, Norway’s aquaculture output in the same year alone exceeded that of the EU as a whole.
The EU’s self-sufficiency rate for fishery and aquaculture products is rather low, making the EU dependent on imports of these products.
Within the EU, aquaculture production is concentrated mainly in four countries, which for their part are specialised on the farming of particular species.
Despite the European Commission’s efforts to promote the development of aquaculture within the EU, the production rate is stagnating.
The constraints and barriers hampering the sector’s growth range from high administrative burdens, to limited access to space and water, to trade-related aspects and governance issues.
Over the past 20 years, the European Parliament has recurrently highlighted the EU’s strong dependency on imports of fisheries and aquaculture products, and called for remedies to strengthen the position of EU fish farmers.
Possible future developments could include a change in policy, with a view to improving the sector’s position as a major food supplier, and a change in production towards less cost-intensive and more sustainable methods.
Read the complete briefing on ‘EU aquaculture: State of play‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.
Global aquaculture production, 1990-2020 Composition of EU aquaculture production by main commercial species (in volume), 2021 Aquaculture products: EU supply balance by volume (million tonnes)