Africa

The disgraced ex-president has ditched the ANC, spelling danger for the party that ended apartheid.

Rose describes the exploitation and sexual violence she faced after escaping a "life of hell".

An Air Force plane brings home Brazilians who managed to escape the war in Gaza as part of a humanitarian operation. Airplanes shorten distances but pollute the atmosphere and aggravate the climate crisis by emitting two percent of greenhouse gases. Sustainable biofuels can mitigate that damage. CREDIT: FAB

By Mario Osava
RIO DE JANEIRO, Mar 13 2024 (IPS)

Brazil is counting on biofuels to assert itself as an energy powerhouse in the near future, as a decisive supplier of low-carbon jet fuel, a requirement of the climate crisis.

The electrification of automobiles has tended to curb the strong ethanol and biodiesel agribusiness developed in the country since the 1970s. But demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) now offers the possibility of significant new expansion for many decades to come.

Electrically powered airplanes are not viable with current technology, and will not be for a long time. “Batteries are very heavy and store little energy,” said Arnaldo Walter, a mechanical engineer and professor at the University of Campinas."Brazil has favorable conditions for biofuels, such as available land, good climate and rainfall, although they are now more uncertain than before." -- Arnaldo Walter

Nor is green hydrogen, the fashionable ecological fuel, an alternative for aviation, because of the difficulty of storage and the need for temperatures of more than 250 degrees Celsius below zero to keep it in a usable liquid form. In addition, the entire design of aircraft would have to be changed, a process that could only be achieved in the long term.

Brazil has everything it needs to become a major producer of green hydrogen, which is generated by electrolysis of water, but requires abundant electricity from renewable sources. That is the case in this country, especially in the Northeast region, which has huge potential in wind and solar energy, in addition to ports closer to Europe than those of other competitors.

The solution is biomass-derived fuel, which does not require altering the format of aircraft or their turbines, by naturally replacing aviation kerosene, the use of which generates two percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate requirements

“Not just any biofuel will do, it has to meet the requirements for environmental, social and economic sustainability certification,” Walter told IPS by telephone from the southern city of Campinas, with a population of 1.1 million people located 90 kilometers from São Paulo.

Deforestation, for example, is one of Brazil’s Achilles’ heels, given the reports of forests being cleared to grow soybeans, whose oil will probably be one of the main raw materials for SAF. It is not enough to decarbonize the fuel, but also the whole process of its production.

The goal is to meet the target set by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

“SAF is the only economically viable and available alternative, despite its sustainability challenges,” argued Amanda Ohara, a chemical engineer and fuel specialist with the non-governmental Climate and Society Institute, in an interview with IPS in Rio de Janeiro.

Soybean monoculture represents half of agricultural production and is the main Brazilian export. It occupies extensive areas of the Cerrado, the Brazilian savannah, and part of the Amazon rainforest, after extensive deforestation. It can now provide the oil for the production of sustainable aviation fuel, known as SAF. CREDIT: Mario Osava / IPS

Soybeans and sugarcane, abundant but disputed

Brazil is the world’s largest soybean producer, with an output of 154 million tons in 2023, about half of which was exported to China. Its oil is the main raw material for biodiesel, which is blended with fossil diesel in this country at a current proportion of 14 percent. Congress is discussing the possibility of raising it to 25 percent in the future.

In addition to its thriving agriculture, based largely on oilseeds and sugarcane, which can supply SAF plants, the country has ample potential for expansion.

“Brazil has favorable conditions for biofuels, such as available land, good climate and rainfall, although they are now more uncertain than before,” said Walter. Tens of millions of hectares of land degraded by extensive cattle ranching in the past can be used to recover production.

In Latin America’s largest country, with 850 million hectares of territory, only 61 million hectares were dedicated to agriculture and 164 million to cattle pastures in 2022, according to MapBiomas, a monitoring platform of a network of organizations focused on climate change.

The government set a goal of recovering 40 million hectares of degraded land in 10 years, almost the same as the area planted with soybeans today: 44.6 million hectares.

Soy already has a well-established market and consumers. Dedicating part of its oil to SAF competes with these uses and will require a large expansion of its cultivation, that is to say, new lands and the risk of deforestation, which together with changes in land use constitute the great source of greenhouse gases in the country.

They represent economic and environmental costs that drive the search for alternatives.

The macauba, a tropical palm tree whose scientific name is Acrocomia aculeata, is attractive because of its high oil productivity and its presence in almost all of Brazil, as well as in other Latin American countries under various names, such as coyol, corojo, grugru or macaw palm.

It has not yet been commercially produced, nor has it been domesticated, making it a long-term, risky bet.

But Acelen, a company controlled by the Mubadala Investment Company of the United Arab Emirates, is promoting a project to grow macauba palm trees on 200,000 hectares of land in northeastern Brazil to produce SAF as of 2026.

To this end, it has an oil refinery in Mataripe, 70 kilometers from Salvador, capital of the northeastern state of Bahia, acquired in 2019 from the state-owned oil company Petrobras.

Ethanol is another alternative raw material, which, like soybean oil, has the advantage of large-scale production, but competes with other uses. In Brazil, sugarcane is the main source of ethanol, whose consumption as a fuel is almost as high as that of gasoline.

In its anhydrous form, it currently accounts for 27 percent of gasoline sold, a mix that is expected to rise to 30 percent or even 35 percent. But ethanol is also used alone, in its hydrated form. In Brazil today, almost all cars have flexible engines, powered by gasoline or ethanol, or by a mixture of any proportion.

A photo of the monotonous landscape of sugarcane in one of the plantations in the interior of the state of São Paulo, which provides almost half of the sugar and ethanol produced in Brazil. The 31 billion liters of ethanol in 2023 could be tripled in 20 years by increasing productivity and monoculture, to provide surpluses for the production of SAF. CREDIT: Mario Osava / IPS

Cane and corn ethanol

Ethanol lags behind vegetable oils in the production of SAF, but will benefit from a production boom expected in the coming years. It will be able to triple its annual production, which totaled 31 billion liters in 2023, without the need to greatly expand the cultivated area, according to industry leaders.

Brazil is already the country that grows the most sugarcane in the world, which allows it to lead the sugar market and occupy second place in ethanol, surpassed only by the United States, where corn is the main source.

Raízen, a joint venture between the British oil transnational Shell and Brazil’s Cosan, is studying the new biofuel, also in partnership with universities, while expanding its ethanol production, of which it is the national leader.

It is a pioneer in second-generation ethanol, extracted from sugarcane bagasse and other cellulose-based waste. This ensures up to 50 percent more ethanol, without the need for more crops. The company has already started up eight plants of this type and expects to have 20 in operation by 2030, despite the fact that they are more expensive than conventional plants.

Sugarcane productivity should also increase in the coming years, according to agronomic researchers, who expect to see production rise twofold mainly due to the planting of new varieties with genetic improvements.

In addition, second-crop corn, generally planted after soybeans in the same area, has allowed an increasing production of ethanol, especially in the midwest region of Brazil. It already represents 17 percent of the national total.

There are other alternatives, such as fossil derivatives but with reduced greenhouse gas emissions, wood from trees that grow faster in tropical countries such as Brazil, animal oils, and even cooking oil.

Each one requires different technologies, with their own costs, maturation times and environmental effects, said Walter. Logistical conditions, dispersion or facilities for collecting raw materials can also determine the most promising alternatives.

“There is no single solution, no silver bullet. We will have to combine various alternatives, depending on the intended or possible scale,” Ohara said. The choice is no longer purely economic, but also responds to the climate emergency, because “gas emissions must be reduced as a matter of urgency,” she added.

The expansion of monocultures will be inevitable in a country like Brazil, which aims to ensure a sustainable supply, but the damage can be mitigated with agroforestry systems, combining oilseeds with other crops, which diversify the vegetation and conserve the soil, proposed the chemist and environmentalist who worked for six years with biofuels in the state-owned Petrobras consortium.

She is the world's most listened-to French female singer, but should Aya Nakamura perform at the Games?

Victoire Ingabire, an outspoken critic of President Kagame, fails in her bid to run for the presidency.

Kelly Smith has been charged with involvement in the abduction of her child, Joslin, who is still missing.

Humanitarians warn that hunger has reached catastrophic levels in northern Gaza. Credit: UNRWA

By Jake Johnson
WASHINGTON DC, Mar 13 2024 (IPS)

A group of senators said Tuesday that under U.S. law, the Biden administratio must cut off American military assistance to Israel unless the Netanyahu government immediately stops impeding aid deliveries to the Gaza Strip, where children are dying of starvation after months of incessant Israeli bombing and attacks on humanitarian convoys.

“The severe humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Gaza is nearly unprecedented in modern history,” the eight senators—led by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)—wrote in a letter to U.S. President Joe Biden.

“Your administration has repeatedly stated, and the United Nations and numerous aid organizations have confirmed, that Israel’s restrictions on humanitarian access, both at the border and within Gaza, are one of the primary causes of this humanitarian catastrophe.”

The senators argued that the Israeli government’s systematic obstruction of aid deliveries violates U.S. law, pointing specifically to Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961. The law states that “no assistance shall be furnished… to any country when it is made known to the president that the government of such country prohibits or otherwise restricts, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of United States humanitarian assistance.”

Biden administration officials have admitted that Israel is impeding aid deliveries to desperate Gazans. But when asked last week whether Israel’s actions amount to a “breach” of the Foreign Assistance Act, U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said he would “have to go back and look at the language of that text.”

“It’s not something that I’ve spent a lot of time looking at,” he added.

The senators wrote to Biden on Tuesday that “according to public reporting and your own statements, the Netanyahu government is in violation of this law.”

“Given this reality, we urge you to make it clear to the Netanyahu government that failure to immediately and dramatically expand humanitarian access and facilitate safe aid deliveries throughout Gaza will lead to serious consequences, as specified under existing U.S. law,” the letter reads. “The United States should not provide military assistance to any country that interferes with U.S. humanitarian assistance.”

“Federal law is clear,” the senators added, “and, given the urgency of the crisis in Gaza, and the repeated refusal of Prime Minister Netanyahu to address U.S. concerns on this issue, immediate action is necessary to secure a change in policy by his government.”

The senators’ letter was made public hours after the head of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) said Israel turned away a truck “loaded” with humanitarian aid because there were scissors in children’s medical aid kits—just one of many examples of Israel blocking the delivery of badly needed assistance.

Israel has limited the flow of aid to Gaza for years, but its siege has become much more restrictive since October 7, when Israel began its latest assault on the Palestinian territory following a deadly Hamas-led attack.

The U.S., by far Israel’s biggest arms supplier, has yet to impose any substantive consequences on the Netanyahu government for its mass killing of civilians or obstruction of humanitarian aid. The Biden administration has quietly approved more than 100 separate weapons sales to Israel since October.

Instead of using its leverage to force Israel’s hand, the administration has resorted to airdropping aid into Gaza and planning the construction of a temporary port off the enclave’s coast—steps that aid groups say won’t be anywhere near enough to avert famine.

Citing four unnamed U.S. officials, Politico reported Monday that Biden “will consider conditioning military aid to Israel” if it launches a ground invasion of Rafah, a small city near the Egyptian border where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering.

Brian Finucane, senior adviser for the U.S. program at the International Crisis Group, wrote in response to Politico‘s reporting that “U.S. law and policy already impose conditions on military aid to Israel as well as every other country.”

“The Biden admin has just refused to enforce those conditions so far,” he added.

Source: Common Dreams

Jake Johnson is a senior editor and staff writer for Common Dreams.

IPS UN Bureau

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');  

Enabling women to transition quickly from traditional cookstoves to cleaner technologies would save millions of lives, especially in poorer rural areas where biomass use is concentrated. Credit: Athar Parzaiv/IPS

By Philippe Benoit and Kaushik Deb
Mar 13 2024 (IPS)

One of the key efforts under the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals is to provide poor households with access to clean cooking technologies to replace, in particular, the burning of solid biomass (e.g., fuelwood and charcoal) in traditional open stoves that kills millions of women and children.

To date, one of the preferred options has involved the substitution of solid biomass with bottled liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). This approach, however, can be seen to run afoul of the climate change-driven opposition to fossil fuel use generally. However, LPG for clean cooking can and should be permitted as a transitional fuel to save lives in the short-term until we can provide universal access to alternative low-emissions clean cooking systems.

Africa is disproportionately burdened by a lack of access to clean cooking technologies, with over 60 percent of its population relying on biomass. That increases to over 85 percent in rural Africa. In Asia, over 45 percent of the rural population relies on biomass for cooking.

The poorest 50 percent of the world’s population (which includes those households currently relying on biomass) are responsible for a mere 8 percent of greenhouse emissions, a figure that would be marginally affected by the adoption of LPG

Enabling women to transition quickly from traditional cookstoves to cleaner technologies would save millions of lives, especially in poorer rural areas where biomass use is concentrated.

As report after report has documented, several million women and children die each year from the adverse impact of the very localized air pollution created by burning fuelwood and other solid biomass on open cookstoves (often used indoors without adequate ventilation).

Shifting away from unstainable harvesting and use of biomass would, in addition to avoiding these negative health impacts, generate important greenhouse gas mitigation and other environmental benefits.

There are a variety of clean cooking technologies that would address this issue. One solution is replacing biomass use with stoves fueled by LPG. Other alternatives include electric stoves and stoves that burn the biomass more efficiently.

Notably, electric stoves, when powered with renewable electricity, are near-zero emitting solutions. In contrast, even though LPG stoves potentially result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions than the traditional use of biomass, its promotion can be criticized as running counter to the climate change-related campaigns to eliminate all fossil fuel combustion and related emissions.

Efforts to phase out fossil fuels have gained momentum in the climate change discussions, as reflected in the discussion at COP 28 that targeted all forms of fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil and gas), as compared to, for example, COP 26 which was focused on coal.

However, this broader and strengthened effort is occurring after many developing countries have already launched substantial clean cooking programs premised on the use of LPG. For instance, India introduced a program in 2013 to achieve universal access to LPG. Cameroon is executing a masterplan to increase the share of LPG for cooking from less than 20 percent to 58 percent by 2035.

Many of these programs attempt to target one of the problems with LPG, namely its affordability for poorer households. For example, Indonesia’s Zero Kero Program (a program initially targeting kerosene but then extended to solid biomass users) provides a free stove and first cylinder and subsidized LPG thereafter.

India’s flagship cooking energy program, Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, launched in 2016 provides a subsidy and loan for the upfront cost of adopting an LPG connection and has resulted in an uptake by over 80 million households. Many ongoing LPG programs enjoy degrees of institutional momentum that would be difficult to replicate quickly if replaced by new efforts premised on a different choice of cooking technology.

Climate sustainability forces generally align with anti-poverty efforts such as the UN goal to achieve universal access to clean cooking, but the use of LPG presents tensions.

While shifting to LPG for cooking can generate the above-referenced health and other benefits for poor households currently relying on biomass, these same households are also amongst the most vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change induced by fossil fuel emissions.

And in the context of the climate change campaigns to reduce emissions, it is arguably strategic to adopt straightforward and clear goals and communications, such as “phasing down/out fossil fuels”, rather than a nuanced message that targets “most but not all fossil fuels.”

Given this context – one in which the poor are adversely affected by biomass use but also by emissions-induced climate change – how should LPG cooking programs be treated?

In deciding which and whose emissions to prioritize in the effort to advance global climate goals, and specifically how to address emissions from LPG-based cooking,  it is useful to place the discussion and choices in the broader emissions inequality context.

As pointed out by a recent Oxfam report on the topic, the poorest 50 percent of the world’s population (which includes those households currently relying on biomass) are responsible for a mere 8 percent of greenhouse emissions, a figure that would be marginally affected by the adoption of LPG. In contrast, the wealthiest 10 percent is responsible for 50 percent, and the top 50 percent for 92 percent.

Moreover, the use of fossil fuels for cooking is something that manifests itself at all income levels. For example, the US government has just issued regulations that tighten efficiency requirements for gas stoves, thereby also, implicitly, legitimizing their continued use for years to come.

The consumers targeted by the US regulations fall within the top 10 percent richest of the world’s population, while the women using unhealthy traditional cookstoves fall within the world’s poorest segment.

Given the lives of poor women and children that can be saved today by LPG-based cooking, coupled with the minute per capita emissions of these consumers, LPG-based efforts should continue and potentially even be expanded under a ‘transitional regime, with the focus of emissions-reduction activities in the near-term targeted at the activities of the world’s richest top 10 percent responsible for 50 percent of global emissions.

Importantly, this transitional regime would include a sunset provision on the use of LPG with a clear second transition to renewables-based electric and other non-emitting cooking solutions. The primary objective is to save lives that would otherwise be lost to cooking-related pollution in the short to medium term, while also supporting net-zero emissions over the longer run.

LPG has a productive role to play in poverty-alleviation efforts and specifically the UN’s goal of achieving universal access to clean cooking. However, the use of LPG for cooking is a strategy which, given its attendant carbon dioxide emissions, should be structured as transitional pending the fuller deployment of low-emissions clean cooking alternatives.

 

Philippe Benoit is the managing director at Global Infrastructure Advisory Services 2050. He previously held management positions at the World Bank and the International Energy Agency.

 Kaushik Deb leads the India Program at the Center on Global Energy Policy at the School of International and Public Affairs in Columbia University.

The 11 violated the Ramadan fast in northern Kano state, where Sharia operates alongside secular law.

Oksen Lisovyi, Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine; Yasmine Sherif, Executive Director of Education Cannot Wait; and Yevhen Kudriavets, First Deputy Minister of Education and Science of Ukraine, address a briefing on funding for Ukrainian education. Credit: UN Photo/Evan Schneider

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS, Mar 13 2024 (IPS)

The UN’s global education fund and the government of Ukraine have announced a new multi-year program funded at USD 18 million that will go toward education for children impacted by the conflict in Ukraine.

In New York, Ukraine’s Minister of Education and Science, Oksen Lisovyi, and Education Cannot Wait (ECW) Executive Director Yasmine Sherif announced the launch of a multi-year resilience program that will take effect from March 2024 until February 2026. In addition to the 18 million, they called on donors to mobilize an additional USD 17 million to fully fund the program. The program is building on ECW’s previous investments in Ukraine, which totaled USD 6.5 million; this has already reached over 360,000 children and youth for the purpose of quality education support.

According to Sherif, the program was developed “in close coordination” with the Ministry of Education and members of civil society in Ukraine. Teachers and students in the southern and eastern states will have access to mental health and psychosocial support. The program will also renovate and strengthen the damaged infrastructure.

Lisovyi stated that the program will support the government’s ongoing plans to reform its education system while also addressing the challenges that have emerged due to the conflict.

“We work toward fundamentally changing the education system,” he said. “Modernize the networks of universities and strengthen the agencies of students, providing them with more freedom and instruments for self-development.”

“Now we concentrate on our efforts to provide the usual normal education for each kid. Giving access to safe education of high quality despite the war,” said Lisovyi. This will include building shelters in schools, a new prerequisite for schools to work offline. It’s been estimated that during this conflict, children spent up to 5,000 hours in underground shelters.

More than 3500 educational institutions have been damaged since the conflict between Ukraine and Russia began in February 2022. Families and children that have been displaced by the conflict struggle to access a proper, comprehensive education. More than 900,000 children are currently receiving a blended education of in-person classes and online learning. As of September 2023, only half of the functioning schools have the capacity to provide face-to-face learning. The other alternative, online learning, has not been accessible to all students, especially those who have been displaced due to the conflict. Under this program, there will be efforts to expand access to digital education, especially for those children left behind.

In collaboration with the government of Ukraine and national organizations, the multi-year resilience program’s investment will be delivered by Finn Church Aid, an NGO whose work in Ukraine centers on education support through providing temporary learning spaces and psychosocial support, and the Kyiv School of Economics Institute, a think tank that has consulted on recommendations for Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery. It is expected that the program will reach 41,000 girls and boys, as well as indirectly benefit 150,000 children through renovated learning spaces in the eastern and southern states.

The program is also intended to invest considerably in teachers, including the estimated 43,000 teachers that have been displaced by the conflict. In addition to receiving mental health and psychosocial support, they will also receive vocational training, which Lisovyi has stated is one of the biggest priorities in his government’s education reform. The expected outcome of this is that at least 12,000 teachers will be supported with professional development and well-being support.

Investing in education reform will go toward building a stronger, more resilient state, said Lisovyi. “The role of education here is crucial, so our efforts are currently focused on restoring access to education for every child. I am incredibly grateful to Education Cannot Wait and all the partners for their shared vision and support.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');   Related Articles

• Call for Scaled Up Funding for Much-Needed, Successful Joint Program in Nigeria
• Educate an Africa Fit for the 21st Century
• Tracking Global Development in Child Benefits Through New Monitoring and Information Platform

The electoral body is against an opposition plan to use drones near polling stations in December.

An Egyptian suspect has been arrested as police try to determine a motive for the stabbings.

By Jomo Kwame Sundaram
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Mar 13 2024 (IPS)

Much higher interest rates – due to Western central banks – are suffocating developing nations, especially the poorest, causing prolonged debt distress and economic stagnation.

US Fed-induced stagnation
After the greatest US Fed-led surge in international interest rates in more than four decades, developing countries spent $443.5 billion to service their external government and government-guaranteed debt in 2022.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

The World Bank’s last International Debt Report showed most of the poorest countries in debt distress as borrowing costs began to surge. The increase has cut into scarce fiscal resources, reducing social spending on health and education.

Debt-servicing costs for all developing countries in 2022 increased by 5% over 2021. The US Fed continued to raise interest rates through 2023, compounding debt distress, while the European Central Bank warns against ‘prematurely’ lowering interest rates.

Poorest worst off
The 75 countries eligible to borrow from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) – which only lends to the world’s poorest – paid $88.9 billion to service debt in 2022.

Over the last decade, the cumulative debt of IDA-eligible countries grew faster than their economies. Their foreign debt stock reached $1.1 trillion in 2022 – more than twice that in 2012. During 2012-22, their external debt rose 134%, over twice the 53% increase in national income.

Interest payments by the poorest countries have quadrupled over the previous decade to $23.6 billion in 2022. The Bank expects debt-servicing by the 24 poorest countries to jump by as much as 39% in 2023 and 2024.

Growing debt distress
Bank Chief Economist cum Senior Vice President Indermit Gill has warned, “Record debt levels and high-interest rates have set many countries on a path to crisis”. “Every quarter that interest rates stay high results in more developing countries becoming distressed…”

Without “quick and coordinated action by debtor governments, private and official creditors, and multilateral financial institutions” and “better debt sustainability … and swifter restructuring” arrangements, “another lost decade’’ seems unavoidable!
Higher interest rates have worsened debt distress in most developing countries. There have been 18 government debt defaults in ten developing countries in the last three years – more than in the previous two decades!

Poorest hardest hit
About three-fifths of low-income countries (LICs) are in or at high risk of debt distress. Debt service payments consume an increasingly large share of their export earnings. Over a third of their external debt has variable interest rates, which have risen sharply over the last two years.

The Bank acknowledges, “Many of these countries face an additional burden: the accumulated principal, interest, and fees they incurred for the privilege of debt-service suspension under the G-20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).”

With higher Fed rates, the stronger US dollar worsens developing countries’ difficulties, raising debt-servicing costs. Besides high interest rates, falling export earnings – due to lower demand – are worsening things.

Where have all the lenders gone?
New financing for the global South has dried up with the flight of capital ‘uphill’ to the North. New borrowing has been made harder by interest rate and debt-servicing cost increases.

New government and government-guaranteed foreign loan commitments to these countries fell by 23% to $371 billion in 2022 – the lowest in a decade.

Private creditors have been avoiding developing countries and got $185 billion more in principal repayments than they loaned in 2022. It was the first year they received more than they loaned to developing countries since 2015.

New bonds issued by developing countries internationally dropped by over half in 2022! New bond issues by IDA-eligible LICs and other countries fell by more than three-quarters to $3.1 billion.

With much less private financing, multilateral development banks, especially the World Bank, loaned much more. Multilateral creditors provided $115 billion in new concessional financing to developing countries in 2022, with half from the Bank.

The Bank provided $16.9 billion more in such financing than it got in principal repayments – nearly thrice the amount a decade before. The Bank also disbursed $6.1 billion in grants to these countries, three times the amount in 2012.

Wrong medicine
As the US Fed continued to hike interest rates through 2023 while the European Central Bank still warns against ‘prematurely’ reversing the rate hikes, the prospects of early relief appear remote, threatening further devastation in the global South.

The excuse for higher interest rates remains inflation above the completely arbitrary two per cent inflation targeting rate now embraced by all too many central bankers as their ‘holy grail’.

But most recent inflation has been due to often deliberate supply-side disruptions in recent years associated with the US-led new Cold War, COVID-19 pandemic disruptions and geopolitically driven economic sanctions, especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Core inflation has largely receded in much of the world since mid-2022. But meanwhile, imported inflation has been exacerbated by exchange rate depreciation due to financial flow-induced refluxes¬.

No solution on the horizon
The 1980s’ government debt crises caused a ‘lost decade’ in Latin America and a quarter century of stagnation in Sub-Saharan Africa. It took almost a decade for the George H W Bush administration to resolve the Latin American debt crises with compromises around the Brady bonds.

This time, a resolution will be much more difficult owing to the varied creditors and much larger debt involved. Worse, there is little sense of responsibility in the West. Instead of seeking collective solutions, the evolving debt crisis is used to blame and isolate China in the fast-worsening geopolitical new Cold War.

IPS UN Bureau

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');   Related Articles

• North Ignores ‘Perfect Storm’ in Global South
• Onerous Debt Making Poorest Poorer
• US Policies Slowing World Economy
• Stop Worshiping Central Banks
• Inflation Phobia Hastens Recessions, Debt Crises
• Inflation Targeting Farce: High Costs, Moot Benefits

A Myanmar girl, displaced by war, sells cigarettes through the razor-wired border with Thailand near the frontier town of Mae Sot. Thailand is bracing for another influx of refugees. Credit: William Webb/lPS

By William Webb
MAE SOT, Thailand, Mar 13 2024 (IPS)

The Maung family is rebuilding their lives in a foreign land. A freshly painted signboard with a play on the word Revolution declares their small restaurant is open for business, and breakfast features traditional Myanmar mohinga—rice noodles and fish soup.

Three years ago, the family of four was prospering in the central Myanmar city of Mandalay but suddenly everything changed. The military seized back power from the newly elected government, and thousands of people took to the streets in protest, including the Maungs. A brutal crackdown ensued across Myanmar, the father was arrested and their two restaurants seized.

Since the 2021 coup, the UN estimates some 2.4 million more people have been displaced by conflict across Myanmar, while 78,000 civilian properties, including homes, hospitals, schools, and places of worship, have been burnt or destroyed by the military.

The Maung family was wise to leave Myanmar when they could, and fortunate to survive the hazardous journey eastwards towards the border with Thailand. After spending a year in a border camp for IDPs run by the military wing of the Karen National Union (KNU) in eastern Kayin State, the family managed to cross into the Thai frontier town of Mae Sot to start afresh, even if they exist in a grey zone of legality alongside tens of thousands of others.

More waves of refugees are following in their footsteps.

“We have 750,000 IDPs in our territory,” said a senior official of the KNU, which has been waging the world’s longest civil war against successive Myanmar regimes since 1949. “A year ago, there were 500,000 to 600,000. Numbers are rising because the military is deliberately targeting civilians,” he told IPS in Mae Sot, asking not to be named.

Myanmar refugees in Thailand pick out clothes piled in the street that have been donated in the border town of Mae Sot. Credit: William Webb/IPS

Against this background and wanting to preempt an influx, Thailand’s new coalition government announced its intention last month to open up a ‘humanitarian corridor’ into Myanmar to funnel aid to IDPs and keep them well away from the border.

Thailand’s military—the real arbiter of power in these border regions and holding sway over two parties in the coalition—is haunted by the spectre of past and present examples of chaos through conflict. In the 1980s, Thailand reluctantly hosted several hundred thousand Cambodian refugees, including remnants of the genocidal Khmer Rouge regime, on its eastern borders. Today it looks west and sees Bangladesh struggling to contain in camps some one million Rohingya refugees forced out of Myanmar in what the UN special rapporteur on human rights called a genocidal campaign by the Myanmar military.

But beyond the ‘humanitarian’ aspect, what has caused anger within the various groups fighting the Myanmar military as well as rights activists, is Thailand’s own admission that its humanitarian corridor proposal is aimed at drawing the regime’s State Administration Council (SAC) into a dialogue that would lead to a negotiated settlement with Myanmar’s diverse resistance forces.

Neither the KNU nor the parallel National Unity Government set up by ousted Myanmar lawmakers after the coup were consulted by Thailand, which received a green light from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Under Thailand’s initiative, aid would be delivered initially to 20,000 IDPs by the Thai Red Cross and the Myanmar Red Cross (whose senior administrators are former military officers) and monitored by ASEAN’s Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management, where the Myanmar junta also has a presence.

“Aid is used everywhere in the world as a political entry point,” the KNU official commented. “This is not a pure humanitarian issue. They want to bring the SAC out of isolation. This is very problematic for us.”

A senior NUG official, also based in Thailand, was similarly concerned by the political intentions behind the proposal.  “It’s a desperate measure by ASEAN seeking a semblance of negotiated peace and dialogue,” he told IPS.

The official doubted it would get off the ground in its present form without the support of the Karen forces that control large areas of Kayin State, nor without the full backing of the US.

The US values its long-held strategic ties with Thailand and its military, and Thai Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara returned from Washington last month, declaring that he had secured complete US support for the initiative, although the US public statement appeared more cautious.

Human rights activists and humanitarian workers on the Thai-Myanmar border remain highly sceptical of the initiative, denouncing it as a “weaponization of aid”.

Thailand, they note, has never officially recognized the refugee status of nearly 100,000 people living in nine UNHCR camps along the Thai-Myanmar border since the 1990s.

“This is not about providing humanitarian aid to the people of Myanmar. It is about giving a new lifeline to the junta to re-engage with ASEAN and everybody else,” commented Paul Greening, a former UN senior staff officer and now independent consultant in Mae Sot.

“Neighbours and other international actors, including the US and China, do not want the junta to fall. They do not want the junta to win but they do not want it to fall either. This is why they all want a ‘negotiated settlement’,” he said.

Igor Blazevic, a senior adviser at the Prague Civil Society Centre who previously worked in Myanmar, said a “carrot” was being held out to the Myanmar regime at a time when it was “seriously weakened and shaken” after losing large areas of territory to resistance forces both in Rakhine State in the west and in Shan State close to China.

“A political aim behind the ‘humanitarian initiative’ is the intention to treat genocidal power-usurpers in uniform as the inevitable and unavoidable key factor in Myanmar’s ‘stability’ and with combination of soft pressure and humanitarian incentives, try to force everybody else to surrender, in a soft way, to ongoing military dominance in politics and the economy,” Blazevic wrote in a commentary.

With the UN warning that nearly two million people in Myanmar are expected to fall into the “highest category of needs severity (catastrophic)” this year, the resistance is aware that they will come under intense international pressure not to reject the Thai initiative.

Recent developments indicate Thailand may rethink its proposal, however. It has opened channels with the KNU and the NUG to discuss their involvement in facilitating aid deliveries through Myanmar civil society organisations independent of the regime. Word has it that the Myanmar Red Cross is not that keen to be directly involved, knowing it is too close to the regime to be able to safely deliver aid to those who have suffered atrocities at its hands.

For the Maung family and their small eatery in Mae Sot, a dream would be to return to Mandalay and Myanmar in peace. But they have little hope of such an outcome, nor do they really want to remain in Thailand, along with over two million other Myanmar workers, classified as migrants, not refugees.

For the moment, life revolves around navigating Thailand’s complex and often corrupt system to secure papers that would give them a degree of legitimacy and enable them to move beyond Mae Sot and surrounding Tak Province. A possible lifeline is an ethnic Chinese branch of their family with members in Taiwan.

“Taiwan could be our future,” says the elder of two daughters, who still dreams of going to university. “I can learn Chinese,” she says, in excellent English.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
!function(d,s,id){var js,fjs=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],p=/^http:/.test(d.location)?'http':'https';if(!d.getElementById(id)){js=d.createElement(s);js.id=id;js.src=p+'://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js';fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js,fjs);}}(document, 'script', 'twitter-wjs');   Related Articles

• Parcels for Prisoners: Exiled Myanmar Activists Keep the Revolutionary Faith
• Last Chance Saloon? Myanmar Junta Imposes Military Conscription
• Yangon—A Junta-Ruled Bubble in a Fragmenting Myanmar

The streaming services with original content eyeing Africa's massive youth audience.

The streaming services with original content eyeing Africa's massive youth audience.

In the SADC region, the state of groundwater pollution is a growing concern. Credit: Isaiah Esipisu/IPS

By Thokozani Dlamini
PRETORIA, South Africa, Mar 12 2024 (IPS)

Groundwater pollution significantly affects the prevalence of waterborne diseases. This form of pollution occurs when hazardous substances, such as pathogens, chemicals, and heavy metals, seep into underground aquifers, the primary source of drinking water for approximately 70% of the 250 million people living in the SADC region.

The consumption of contaminated groundwater can lead to a host of health issues, including gastrointestinal infections, cholera, dysentery, and other serious illnesses. Addressing this issue is crucial for safeguarding public health and maintaining the integrity of ecosystems that depend on clean groundwater.

“The link between contaminated groundwater and waterborne diseases underscores the urgency of protecting these vital water resources. To mitigate these dangers, concerted efforts are required to prevent pollutant infiltration, monitor water quality, and enhance water treatment facilities”, said Gerald Mundondwa, SADC-GMI Senior Groundwater Specialist.

The link between contaminated groundwater and waterborne diseases underscores the urgency of protecting these vital water resources. To mitigate these dangers, concerted efforts are required to prevent pollutant infiltration, monitor water quality, and enhance water treatment facilities”,

Gerald Mundondwa, SADC-GMI Senior Groundwater Specialist
The challenge is amplified by the fact that once groundwater is polluted, remediation is often a complex and costly process.

As National Groundwater Awareness Week brings attention to this critical resource, we must confront the challenges threatening it, particularly groundwater pollution. This complex environmental issue carries significant health risks for humans and detrimental consequences for ecosystems. Various activities drive pollution, such as the extensive application of pesticides and fertilizers in agriculture, which introduces harmful chemicals into the aquifers.

Additionally, the inadequate disposal of hazardous substances, leaks from subterranean tanks and pipelines, and landfill leachate can introduce toxins into groundwater reserves.

Addressing these challenges is pivotal for the preservation of groundwater quality and the prevention of the dire ecological and health repercussions associated with its contamination.

Eng. James Sauramba – SADC-GMI Executive Director believes that groundwater contamination is indeed a persistent problem that can endure for years, making remediation efforts challenging and costly. The process of purifying contaminated groundwater is fraught with difficulties and substantial expenses, partly due to the inaccessibility and vast spread of aquifers.

In the SADC region, the state of groundwater pollution is a growing concern as it poses a significant threat to the region’s ecosystem and the health of millions of people who rely on groundwater as their primary source of drinking water. Globally it is estimated that groundwater sources provide 43% of all water used for irrigation.

To tackle groundwater pollution efficiently, a multifaceted approach is essential—one that brings together the concerted efforts of various stakeholders. This includes governments, industries, communities, and environmental organizations, all working in harmony to develop and implement sustainable practices and robust regulations.

Preventative measures are also crucial, as they are typically more cost-effective and practical than attempting to restore already-polluted groundwater to a safe state. Collaboration and comprehensive planning are the keys to ensuring the long-term protection and purity of our invaluable groundwater resources.

Indeed, individual actions play a crucial role in reducing groundwater pollution. By being mindful of the way, we handle and dispose of waste, we can each help to protect this critical resource.

Here are some practical steps that individuals can take to minimize their impact on groundwater quality:

Ensure proper disposal of hazardous waste: Chemicals should never be poured down the drain or onto the ground, as they can seep into groundwater. Hazardous waste should be disposed of at designated collection sites.

Inspect and maintain underground tanks: Regular testing for leaks in underground oil tanks is essential. Consider replacing underground tanks with above-ground tanks to prevent leaks into the soil that could reach the groundwater.

Practice safe storage of hazardous materials: Store fuels and chemicals in secure containers and designated safe areas to avoid accidental spills.

Use chemicals responsibly: When using pesticides, fertilizers, or other chemicals, follow the instructions carefully, and apply them in the recommended amounts to prevent excess from entering the groundwater.

Maintain septic systems: Have septic systems pumped and inspected every five years to prevent malfunctions that could lead to groundwater contamination.

Monitor private wells: For those with private wells, it’s important to inspect the immediate surrounding area for potential contamination sources and test well water regularly, especially if there is a heightened risk of pollution.

By adopting these practices, individuals can make substantial contributions to protecting groundwater from pollution, ultimately safeguarding our health and the environment.

Thokozani Dlamini is SADC-GMI Communication and Knowledge Management Specialist

A Cameroonian club defends Wilfried Nathan Doualla after the midfielder was accused of age cheating.

This is a symbolic breakthrough for the army in its 11-month civil war with the Rapid Support Forces.

The Gaza population is suffering the world’s worst current hunger crisis, which has led to high levels of malnutrition, wasting, stunting and trauma reaching famine thresholds. Credit: World Health Organization (WHO)

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Mar 12 2024 (IPS)

Estimates of mortality in the Hamas-Israel war after five months of fighting indicate a Palestinian death rate 80 times greater than the Israeli death rate. In absolute terms, the number of Palestinian deaths is 18 times greater than the number of Israeli deaths.

The Palestinian death toll in the Gaza Strip is believed to be the highest such civilian casualty rate in the 21st century. Some have concluded that Israel’s bombing of Gaza is one of the most intense civilian punishment campaigns in history.

Even Israel’s major benefactor and chief ally, the United States, has criticized the bombing of Gaza. President Biden called Israel’s military action “over the top” and warned Israel that it was losing international support because of its “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza. Secretary of State Blinken has also told Israel that ultimately there is no military solution to Hamas.

Although the numbers of deaths continue to be updated, current reported estimates provide an intelligible picture of the war’s lethal consequences on human life between 7 October 2023 and 7 March 2024, especially for the civilian population in Gaza (Table 1).

Source: Reported figures are from various sources with links provided in the text.

 

According to Israeli officials, the revised number of Israeli deaths resulting from the horrific attack by Hamas-led militants on 7 October 2023 is 1,163. Around 70 percent of the victims identified in the attack were civilians.

Those killed in Israel on October 7 also include foreigners and dual nationals. No less than 31 U.S. citizens, 39 French citizens and 34 Thai citizens were killed, according to country authorities. The Israeli military also said that 1,500 Hamas fighters were killed during the 7 October attack.

Israeli authorities reported that more than 240 individuals from more than 40 countries, including young children and the elderly, were taken hostage on 7 October and are believed to be held by Hamas in Gaza.

An estimated 32 hostages are reported to have subsequently died, 112 hostages have been freed with 70 percent being women and children and about half of the hostages remain in Gaza.

The World Food Programme warned of a “man-made” famine in Gaza with nowhere else in the world with this many people at risk of severe hunger. Refugees International also found in their research that Israel’s blocking of aid is creating apocalyptic conditions inside Gaza

In addition to those deaths, no less than 535 Israeli soldiers have died since the ground invasion began with the vast majority killed on 7 October. Also, at least 12 Israeli deaths occurred in the West Bank and approximately 6,900 Israelis have been injured since 7 October.

In response to the 7 October Hamas attack, the death toll in Gaza from Israeli military operations according to Gaza’s health ministry, which has previously been described as trustworthy by WHO’s regional office, is at least 30,878 Palestinians.

As of 7 March 2024, that mortality figure represents 1.4 percent of the population or more than one in every 70 Palestinians in Gaza killed.

The total number of Palestinian deaths includes both fighters and civilians with approximately two-thirds of the deaths being women and children. Most recently, at least 104 Palestinians waiting to get food from humanitarian aid trucks were reported to be killed by Israeli troops, which the Israeli military denies saying most were killed in a crush or run over trying to escape.

Also, Hamas has reportedly said it has lost about 6,000 of its fighters while Israel has said it killed some 13,000 Hamas members.

The number of deaths in Gaza is likely to be even higher than being reported by Palestinian health officials. The war has brought about a humanitarian catastrophe for the Palestinians with an estimated 8,000 missing with many under the rubble of buildings and others hastily buried, no less than 72,402 injured, or about 10 times the number of injured Israelis, and vital humanitarian assistance limited by Israel’s blockade.

Several months ago, the Israeli military put a complete siege on Gaza, i.e., no electricity, no food, no water and no gas. Gaza’s residents are now facing a serious lack of food, drinking water and medicine and a sanitation crisis with high rates of infectious disease, at least 90 percent among children under five, with nearly no access to medical care. Aid groups have labeled Gaza as the most dangerous place in the world for children.

The Gaza population is suffering the world’s worst current hunger crisis, which has led to high levels of malnutrition, wasting, stunting and trauma reaching famine thresholds. WHO recently reported that no less than 10 children have starved to death in Gaza since the war began.

The World Food Programme warned of a “man-made” famine in Gaza with nowhere else in the world with this many people at risk of severe hunger. Refugees International also found in their research that Israel’s blocking of aid is creating apocalyptic conditions inside Gaza.

International aid agencies have concluded that if nothing is done soon, widespread famine is imminent, especially starvation among young children and infants, with more deaths of Palestinians in Gaza inevitable (Figure 1).

 

Source: Reported percentages are from various sources with links provided in the text.

 

Approximately 70 percent of Gaza’s homes and half of its buildings, which include hospitals, schools, universities, mosques and churches, have been destroyed. The destruction and ruins in Gaza are said to resemble some of the most devastating campaigns in urban warfare in modern history.

According to US intelligence assessments, in the first two months of the war Israel dropped on Gaza more than 29,000 bombs, munitions and shells with 40-45 percent being unguided, including 900-kilogram (2,000 pound) “bunker-busters, and on areas that Israel designated safe for Palestinian civilians. Also, Israel’s heavy bombardment from air, land and sea included dropping 45,000 bombs weighing more than 65,000 tons on Gaza in a period of 89 days.

The war damaged or destroyed water, sanitation and health systems with approximately 1.9 million people, or about 85 percent of the total population of Gaza, displaced. Approximately half of Gaza’s population are sheltering in tent encampments in the southern city of Rafah, which Israel’s military plans to invade.

Besides Israeli and Palestinian deaths in Israel and Gaza since 7 October, others nearby have been killed. Violence in the West Bank has soared with at least 394 Palestinians reported to have been killed amid an increase in Israeli military raids and incursions. Also, 12 Israelis were killed in the West Bank during the five months following the 7 October attack.

In addition, more than 150 employees of the United Nations have been killed since the Israeli-Hamas war began. It is reported to be the deadliest conflict ever for the United Nations in such a short period of time. Moreover, no less than 122 journalists and media workers reporting on the war have been killed.

The high levels of civilian deaths are partly due to failed attempts to reach a cease-fire. Since the start of the Hamas-Israel war, the United Nations Security Council has considered three resolutions calling for an immediate cease-fire. The United States cast the sole “no” vote on each of those resolutions.

Regarding the adoption of the third resolution, the US said it could disrupt and jeopardize its ongoing negotiations to free Israeli hostages, secure a temporary cease-fire and increase desperately needed aid to Gaza. Recently, however, the US is pushing the Security Council to back an immediate cease-fire of roughly six-weeks in Gaza together with the release of all hostages.

The US administration faces serious criticisms internally for its vetoes as well as pressures to back a cease-fire, with some in Congress pushing to limit aid to Israel or impose strict conditions.

A national survey in February found two-thirds of US voters support calling for a permanent ceasefire and a de-escalation of violence in Gaza. The ongoing outrage over the continued support for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza poses a political problem for Biden in an election year.

Vice-President Harris recently bolstered the push for an immediate six-week cease-fire agreement, the release of hostages and increased humanitarian aid to Gaza facilitated by Israel with “no excuses”. She said the conditions in Gaza are inhumane with immense suffering with people starving and criticized Israel for not doing enough to ease a “humanitarian catastrophe”.

In contrast to the Security Council, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on 12 December 2023 demanding an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages and ensuring humanitarian aid access. The resolution passed with a large majority of 153 in favor and 10 against, with 23 abstentions.

The global outcry over the breadth of death, devastation and displacement in Gaza has intensified. Growing numbers of countries, including Algeria, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Ireland, Malaysia, Norway, Pakistan, and South Africa, have expressed serious concerns, outrage and condemnation regarding the scope and intensity of Israel’s military campaign and the humanitarian catastrophe created in Gaza.

The high mortality and humanitarian disaster have contributed to the growing isolation of Israel internationally and calls for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.

Many government leaders have denounced the high number of Palestinian civilian deaths in Gaza. Also, more than 800 officials in the US, the UK and European Union signed a public letter of dissent against their governments’ support of Israel in its war campaign in Gaza.

South Africa appealed to the International Court of Justice, criticizing Israel for committing and failing to prevent genocidal acts. South Africa has also asked the court to issue emergency orders for Israel to stop the “genocidal starvation” of the Palestinian people.

Norway has also condemned Israel’s actions as contravening international law and breaching the principle of self-defense. Brazil’s President Lula da Silva accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

Given Israel’s total population of approximately 9.8 million, the Israeli deaths on 7 October and in the Hamas-Israel war up to 7 March 2024 represent about 0.018 percent of its population, or 18 deaths per 100,000 population.

With an estimated total population of approximately 2.2 million in Gaza, the Palestinian deaths from the Hamas-Israel war up to 7 March 2024 represents about 1.423 percent of its population, or 1,423 deaths per 100,000 population, which is 80 times greater than the Israeli death rate.

When the Palestinian death rate of Gaza is applied to the population of Israel, the resulting hypothetical mortality would be a staggering 139,378 Israeli deaths, which is about 80 times greater than Israel’s actual number. Conversely, applying the Israeli death rate to the population of Gaza would yield a low of 383 Palestinian deaths, or 1.2 percent of Gaza’s actual number (Figure 2).

 

Source: Reported figures are from various sources with links provided in the text.

 

If those hypothetical deaths of 139,378 Israelis and 383 Palestinians had actually occurred, a relevant question to consider is whether the international community with the United States taking the lead would have adopted a ceasefire early on in the war.

The deaths, injuries, displacements and suffering resulting from the Hamas-Israel war after five months continues to be updated with new information from authorities, international organizations, hospitals, mortuaries and families. Additional demographic analyses, studies and surveys will be needed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the war’s mortality and misery.

During this century-long conflict that began with the British Mandate for Palestine and centers principally on religion and demographics, large numbers of deaths and population displacements have occurred. To resolve the conflict and halt the killing and injuries of Israelis, Palestinians and others, various solutions have been proposed.

The two-state solution is the preferred option of many countries, including the United States, other allies of Israel and the UN Security Council, with some countries considering recognizing a Palestinian state. However, many scholars consider the two-state solution to be a mirage or no longer possible.

Israel has expressed its opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state. The government has approved the building of thousands new homes in Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Also, some are calling to rebuild them in an Israeli controlled Gaza, encouraging Palestinians to leave and promoting plans to occupy both the West Bank and Gaza indefinitely.

Given the salient demographics on the ground, i.e., the de facto one-state reality, some anticipate the emergence of the one-state solution. In such an outcome, the Jewish residents would constitute approximately 47 percent of the total population, a fundamental change from the Jewish majority of 74 percent in Israel today. The one-state solution would also need to consider civil rights, justice and equality before the law for all its residents, a fundamental goal of democracies.

Finally, it seems evident, unfortunately, that without a peace resolution to the protracted Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the loss of lives, injuries, displacements and misery will likely continue unabated.

 

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.