Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

Biological Weapons Convention 40th Anniversary Event

This article originally appeared in the Scientific American Forum.

 

Brainlike computer chips, smart pharmacology and other advances offer great promise but also raise serious questions that we must deal with now.

SA Forum  is an invited essay from experts on topical issues in science and technology.

Editor's Note: This essay was produced in coordination with the World Economic Forum. 

In the past four decades technology has fundamentally altered our lives: from the way we work to how we communicate to how we fight wars. These technologies have not been without controversy, and many have sparked intense debates that are often polarized or embroiled in scientific ambiguities or dishonest demagoguery.

The  debate on stem cells and embryo research , for example, has become a hot-button political issue involving scientists, policy makers, politicians and religious groups. Similarly, the discussions on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have mobilized civil society, scientists and policy makers in a wide debate on ethics and safety. The developments in genome-editing technologies are just one example that bioresearch and its impact on market goods are strongly dependent on social acceptance and cannot escape public debates of regulation and ethics. Moreover, requests for transparency are increasingly central to these debates, as shown by movements like  Right to Know , which has repeatedly demanded the labeling of GMOs on food products.

Ethical and regulatory challenges

On March 4 the World Economic Forum released its list of the  top 10 emerging technologies for 2015 . It includes advances that aim to resolve some of the ethical debates posed by an earlier generation of technologies as well as others that will bring about new ethical and regulatory challenges. The notion of “emerging” technology does not necessarily mean that all such advances are new or revolutionary by themselves. Some have already been around for years or, in various forms, for decades (for example, fuel-cell vehicles, artificial intelligence, the digital genome, additive manufacturing methods). They are now transitioning to a new phase, however, becoming more widely used or incorporated in consumer goods. In one way or another all these technologies are bound to gain more ground in coming years.

Precise genetic-engineering techniques will likely solve some of the main controversial elements in the GMO debate—for example, the fact that genetic engineering was neither precise nor predictable . The range of procedures associated with GM crops is precise in the initial process of cutting and splitting genes in the test tubes. But the subsequent steps are uncontrolled and some mutations can occur and alter the functioning of the natural genes in potentially harmful ways. A technique that would achieve greater accuracy and greater predictability over genetic mutations is, of course, a net improvement on conventional GMOs. It is, however, critical that this technique is properly studied and implemented in a sustainable way and that it doesn’t just give renewed legitimacy to genetic engineering in agriculture.

More accuracy is also expected in the operation of drones with the adaptation of the sense-and-avoid equipment. This will have unequivocal security benefits, helping unmanned aerial vehicles avoid collisions with other drones or piloted aircraft. The critical offshoot of this innovation is that it will encourage and enable the operation of a larger number of drones, a development which can be both welcomed (for instance, China flies drones to help  fight pollution ) and anticipated, as the growth in  dangerous drone flights  around populated areas appears to be developing ahead of regulations.

Autonomous systems,  artificial intelligence  (AI) and robotics, while already decades-old technologies, will continue to expand their functionalities and enter new eras of continual specialization. More intuitive, emergent AI could change speech and conversational software with unprecedented precision, helping millions of people and also redefining the way we command and interact with computers.

Robots as intelligent as humans

New-generation robotics will increasingly have more autonomy and capacity to react without preprogramming, which complicates current debates on robotics: The trust and reliance invested in a robot will have to be greater, bringing robots closer to the point of being on par with us. Neuromorphic chip technology further illustrates this. It is among the most revolutionary developments in AI and a radical step in computing power. Mimicking the intricacies of the human brain, a  neuro-inspired computer would work in a fashion similar to the way neurons and synapses communicate. It could potentially learn or develop memory. This would imply that, for instance, a drone  equipped with a neuromorphic chip would be better at surveillance, remembering or recognizing new elements in its environment.

Immediate ethical red flags emerge, however: Building neuromorphic chips would create machines as smart as humans, the most intelligent species on the planet. These technologies are demonstrations of human excellence yet computers that think could be devastating for our species and, as  Marvin Minsky  has put it, they could even keep humanity as pets.
 
The interest in smart machines is now also pursued in additive manufacturing methods, which are increasingly integrating smart materials into manufacturing. These materials could adapt, change properties, interact or respond to their environments. With  4-D Printing , which takes into account the transformation that occurs over time, some materials will adapt and repair by themselves without maintenance or they could be preprogrammed to disintegrate on their own. This will raise new questions of standardization, traceability and copyright.

More radical disruptions will occur once the technology transitions to the organic world, making it possible to assemble biomaterials that evolve and develop on their own, design cancer-fighting robots that would release antibodies only in contact with cancerous cells, and so on. The moment of the  print button  for biology is nearing. Effectively, this could also mean that in a not too-distant future smart pharmacology will permit us to receive a continuous supply of antidepressants or neuroenhancers every time our dopamine level drops. The ethical consequences of such developments should be thought through. Having our emotions controlled in detail by smart machines will pave the way for dangerous forms of dependences and new understandings of our humanity and the emotions that define us.

Genome-based treatment, based on wider and cheaper availability of genome data, will provide new ways to customize the therapeutic protocol and enhance our control over diseases and medical treatment. The speed, accuracy and costs of genome-reading have changed dramatically in just a matter of years: A decade ago this process was  a billion-dollar effort  whereas today the price has dropped sharply to around $8,000. In cancer treatment, for instance, this will allow transitioning from broad-spectrum chemotherapies to more individualized diagnoses and targeting of specific malfunctioning genes. As we are truly starting to gain more precise tools to fight life-threatening diseases, a range of other issues arise. Pervasive global inequalities will still prevent millions of people from enjoying the benefits of such treatments, even in a context of decreasing costs of genome sequencing. Furthermore, a range of security and privacy risks associated with data storage of genome data will invariably arise and require protective mechanisms, especially as such  databases are often shared  for security reasons (for example, between international police forces), increasing the possibility of hacking or abuse by authorities.

Inevitably,  the emerging technologies  of the future will redefine our understanding of biology, the material world and manufacturing. The implications will further extend into geopolitics and global balances of power. Fuel-cell vehicles are finally expected to make their way to the market and reduce dependency on oil or emissions that contribute to climate change. In the long term, this will accentuate the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies and recalibrate geopolitical relations. Recyclable thermostat polymers, reportedly  discovered by accident , will dramatically change fabrication and manufacturing, leading to new standards in industries. Globally, the advent of distributed manufacturing is bound to lead to a reassessment of the meaning of value chains and infrastructure. Rather than ship parts of a given product, some companies will simply trade information, leaving it to the customer to finalize the product’s manufacture. A suite of other technologies such as 3-D printing, informatics and robotics are enabling a paradigm shift to a  dematerialized future  with endless possibilities for customization.

Changes ahead

As always, we must welcome  innovation  and the benefits it brings us. But we must also remain committed to sustainable development, taking into account issues of inequality, human dignity and inclusiveness. Finally, this year’s top emerging technologies also remind us of the importance of political commitment. Take the example of the transition toward fuel-cell vehicles: it will require huge infrastructural adaptations and conversions. In fact, it’s estimated that if the U.S. spent the same amount of money it took to put a person on the moon ( $100 billion in today’s dollars ), the shift to hydrogen-powered cars and refueling stations that pump hydrogen would be significantly eased. Often the technology itself is available but only a massive exercise of political will can bring about change.

Some technologies might progress independently of political support. But  good governance , examinations of dual-use risks and ethical considerations must still remain guiding posts at all times. Ultimately, how we approach the regulation of emerging technologies will inevitably have wide implications—not only for security and ethics but for our definition of human dignity and the equality of individuals.

 

 

>> Back to GCSP Staff Publications

In Zusammenarbeit mit der Nationalen Anwaltskammer Mauretaniens (Ordre National des Avocats) veranstaltete das Regionalprojekt Maghreb eine nationale Konferenz zur „Rolle der Anwälte bei der Folterprävention" am 10. und 11. März 2015 in der mauretanischen Hauptstadt Nouakchott.

Die Verhandlungspartner arbeiten daran, auf der Generalversammlung der Vereinten Nationen Ende September 2015 eine neue Post-2015-Agenda mit universellen Zielen nachhaltiger Entwicklung, den Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), zu verabschieden. Eine intergouvernementale Arbeitsgruppe der Vereinten Nationen hat einen umfassenden Vorschlag von 17 Zielen und 169 Unterzielen für nachhaltige Entwicklung vorgelegt.
Bonn, 16.03.2015. Laut Schätzungen des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) sind aktuell ein Viertel der ärmsten Länder so hoch verschuldet, dass für sie ein erhöhtes Risiko einer Schuldenkrise besteht. Im Verhältnis zur Wirtschaftskraft des Landes gelten ihre Schulden als nicht „tragfähig“. Gemäß dem von der Open Working Group (OWG) der Vereinten Nationen vorgeschlagenen Unterziel 17.4 soll die internationale Gemeinschaft zukünftig, „mit einer koordinierten Politik im Bereich der Schuldenumstrukturierung die Entwicklungsländer dabei unterstützen, langfristig Schuldentragfähigkeit zu erreichen…“. Damit knüpft dieses Unterziel des 17. SDGs (Stärkung der Umsetzungsmittel und Wiederbelebung der globalen Partnerschaft für nachhaltige Entwicklung) an die von den Vereinten Nationen durchgeführten Initiativen zur Umstrukturierung von Staatsschulden sowie zur verantwortlichen Kreditvergabe und Kreditaufnahme an. In der Vergangenheit hat sich eine mangelnde Schuldentragfähigkeit als zentrales Entwicklungshemmnis erwiesen. Stark verschuldete Länder haben beispielsweise ihre Sozialausgaben und Investitionen in Infrastruktur wegen der hohen Schuldendienstzahlungen oft drastisch kürzen müssen. Bisherige ad-hoc-Entschuldungsinitiativen für Entwicklungsländer in den letzten zwei Dekaden haben die Verschuldung zwar erheblich gesenkt, aber die Schuldenproblematik nicht grundsätzlich gelöst. Ein aktuelles Beispiel hierfür aus den Reihen der Industrieländer stellt Griechenland dar, wo die Sozialausgaben massiv zugunsten der Schuldendienste gestrichen wurden. Allerdings benennt die Open Working Group keine Instrumente zur Vermeidung und Bewältigung von Schuldenkrisen. Als Antwort auf den OWG-Vorschlag legte UN-Generalsekretär Ban Ki-moon im September 2014 einen Synthesebericht vor. Darin wurde er hinsichtlich der Reform der Instrumente des Global-Debt-Governance-Systems etwas spezifischer. Der Generalsekretär hat ein informelles Forum für die Schulden souveräner Staaten vorgeschlagen. Aber hier bleibt auch der Generalsekretär sehr vage. Was heißt informelles Forum? Welche Aufgaben soll dieses Forum übernehmen? Nach dem derzeit bekanntesten Vorschlag von zwei Ökonomen des amerikanischen Think Tanks Centre for International Governance Innovation soll ein informelles „Sovereign Debt Forum“ als Beratungs- und Analyseplattform für Gläubiger und Schuldner dienen. Aber ist ein informelles Forum zur Behandlung von Schulden souveräner Staaten wirklich ausreichend, um Verschuldungskrisen in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern zu verhindern und zu bewältigen? Nein, das hat auch die Griechenlandkrise gezeigt. Die Verschuldungskrise im Land der Akropolis hätte mit einem informellen Forum weder verhindert noch bewältigt werden können. Es fehlen also weitere Instrumente, um langfristig Schuldentragfähigkeit zu erreichen. Insbesondere sollte die Chance, nachhaltige Entwicklungsziele zu formulieren, dazu genutzt werden, die Prinzipien der United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) für die verantwortliche staatliche Kreditvergabe und -aufnahme sowie die Idee eines Insolvenzverfahrens für Staaten zu fördern. Die UNCTAD-Prinzipien beinhalten eine freiwillige Selbstverpflichtung zur verantwortlichen Kreditvergabe an Staaten und Kreditaufnahme durch Staaten. Die Prinzipien sind allerdings rechtlich nicht bindend und es bleibt unklar, inwieweit ihre Umsetzung überprüft wird. Dagegen könnte ein Staateninsolvenzverfahren international verbindliche Regeln zur Bewältigung von Schuldenkrisen für alle Gläubiger schaffen. Die Notwendigkeit dafür haben die Klagen verschiedener Geier- und Hedgefonds in Sub-Sahara Afrika und Lateinamerika bewiesen. Diese Investoren kaufen die Wertpapiere zu einem sehr niedrigen Preis und klagen ihren höheren Nennwert dann ein. Beispielsweise hat der Rechtsstreit zwischen dem Hedgefonds NML Capital und dem argentinischen Staat im September 2014 die geordnete und gerechte Umstrukturierung der argentinischen Schulden verhindert. Vor diesem Hintergrund verabschiedete die UN-Generalversammlung eine Resolution, auf deren Grundlage bis Ende 2015 ein rechtlicher Rahmen für die Restrukturierung von Staatsschulden ausgearbeitet werden soll. Die politische Umsetzbarkeit eines solchen Staateninsolvenzverfahrens erscheint derzeit begrenzt. Während insbesondere die G77-Staaten die UN-Resolution befürworteten, stimmten einflussreiche Länder wie die USA, Großbritannien und Deutschland dagegen. Dies könnte ein Grund dafür sein, weshalb der UN-Generalsekretär in seinem Synthesebericht zur Post-2015-Agenda lediglich ein informelles Forum vorschlägt. Zur Sicherstellung von Schuldentragfähigkeit ist es allerdings notwendig, konkrete Instrumente zur Vermeidung und Bewältigung von Verschuldungskrisen in den SDGs zu etablieren und zu überprüfen. Ansonsten bleibt dieses Unterziel ein inhaltsloses Versprechen.

Wasser ist für das Leben auf der Erde unabdingbar. Die tatsächliche Versorgungssituation und die Qualität des Rohstoffes Wasser sind jedoch in immer mehr Gebieten der Welt schwierig. Die Bedürfnisse einer schnell wachsenden Weltbevölkerung und die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels verschärfen die Situation zusätzlich.

Das Thema "Wasser" betrifft uns alle. Ohne Wasser ist kein Leben möglich. Genau aus diesem Grunde ist der Umgang mit Wasser weltweit immer wieder Auslöser von Konflikten und Ursache zahlreicher Probleme.

Seit Beginn des Jahres 2015 hat die Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung in der südafrikanischen Nelson Mandela Stiftung einen renommierten Projektpartner mit einem panafrikanischen Mandat. Am 3. März 2015 lud die Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung zu einer Podiumsdiskussion in Brüssel ein, über die Frage, wie das Vermächtnis Nelson Mandelas am besten erhalten werden könne und welche unterstützende Rolle europäische Partner dabei spielen könnten.

Public Discussion: "Freedom of expression: a right with responsibilities?"

Zum Internationalen Frauentag hat das Generalkonsulat der Volksrepublik China in München gemeinsam mit dem Konfuzius-Institut München am 6. März 2015 in das Künstlerhaus am Lenbachplatz eingeladen.

This article originally appeared in the World Economic Forum Blog.

 

In the past four decades, technology has fundamentally altered our lives: from the way we work, to how we communicate, to how we fight wars. These technologies have not been without controversy, and many have sparked intense debates, often polarized or embroiled in scientific ambiguities or dishonest demagoguery.

The  debate on stem cells and embryo research , for example, has become a hot-button political issue, involving scientists, policy-makers, politicians and religious groups. Similarly, the discussions on genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have mobilized civil society, scientists and policy-makers in a wide debate on ethics and safety. The developments in genome-editing technologies are just one example that bio research and its impact on market goods are strongly dependent on social acceptance and cannot escape public debates of regulation and ethics. Moreover, requests for transparency are increasingly central to these debates, as shown by movements like  Right to Know , which has repeatedly demanded the labelling of GMOs on food products.

Ethical and regulatory challenges

The World Economic Forum’s list of  top 10 emerging technologies of 2015  includes those that aim to resolve some of the ethical debates posed by an earlier generation of technologies, as well as others that will bring about new ethical and regulatory challenges. The notion of “emerging” technology does not necessarily mean that all such technologies are new or revolutionary by themselves. Some have already been around for years or, in various forms, for decades (e.g. fuel-cell vehicle, artificial intelligence, digital genome, additive manufacturing methods). However, they are now transitioning to a new phase, becoming more widely used or incorporated in consumer goods. In one way or another, all these technologies are bound to gain more ground in the years to come.

Precise genetic engineering techniques , one of the highlighted technologies, will likely solve some of the main controversial elements in the GMO debate, for example the fact that genetic engineering was  neither precise nor predictable . The range of procedures associated with GM crops is precise in the initial process of cutting and splitting genes in the test tubes. But the subsequent steps are uncontrolled and some mutations can occur and alter the functioning of the natural genes in potentially harmful ways.

A precise technique that would achieve greater accuracy and greater predictability over genetic mutations is, of course, a net improvement on conventional GMOs. It is, however, critical that this technique is properly studied and implemented in a sustainable way and that it doesn’t just give renewed legitimacy to genetic engineering in agriculture.

More accuracy is also expected in the operation of drones with the adaptation of the Sense and Avoid  equipment. This will have unequivocal security benefits, helping to avoid collisions of drones with other drones or piloted systems.

The critical offshoot of this innovation is that it will encourage and enable the operation of a larger number of drones, a development which can be both welcomed (for instance, China flies drones to help  fight pollution ) and anticipated, as the growth in  dangerous drone flights  around populated areas appears to be developing ahead of regulations.

Autonomous systems,  artificial intelligence  (AI) and robotics, while already decades-old technologies, will continue to expand their functionalities and enter new eras of continuous specialization. More intuitive,  emergent AI  could change speech and conversational software with unprecedented precision, helping millions of people and also redefining the way we command and interact with computers.

Robots as intelligent as humans

New-generation robotics  will increasingly have more autonomy and capacity to react without pre-programming, which complicates all current debates on robotics: the trust and reliance invested in a robot will have to be greater, bringing us closer to the point of being on a par with robots.  Neuromorphic chip technology  further illustrates this. This is among the most revolutionary developments in AI and a radical step further in computing power. Mimicking the intricacies of the human brain, a  neuro-inspired computer  would work in a similar fashion to the way neurons and synapses communicate, and potentially be able to learn or develop memory. This would imply that, for instance, a  drone  equipped with a neuromorphic chip would be better at surveillance, remembering or recognizing new elements in the environment.

However, immediate ethical red flags emerge: building neuromorphic chips would create machines as intelligent as humans, the most superior and intelligent species in the universe. These technologies are demonstrations of human excellence yet computers that think could be devastating for our species and, as  Marvin Minsky  has put it, they could even keep humanity as pets.

The interest in smart machines is now also pursued in  additive manufacturing methods , which are increasingly integrating smart materials into manufacturing. These materials could adapt, change properties, interact or respond to their environments. With  4D Printing , which takes into account the transformation that occurs over time, some materials will adapt and repair by themselves, without maintenance, or they could be pre-programmed to disintegrate on their own. This will raise new questions of standardization, traceability and copyright.

More radical disruptions will occur once the technology transitions to the organic world, making it possible to assemble biomaterials that evolve and develop on their ow n , design cancer-fighting robots that would release antibodies only in contact with cancerous cells, etc. The moment of the  print button  for biology is nearing. Effectively, this could also mean that in a not too-distant future, smart pharmacology will permit us to receive a constant supply of anti-depressants or neuro-enhancers every time our dopamine level drops. The ethical consequences of such developments should be thought through. Having our emotions controlled in detail by smart machines will pave the way for dangerous forms of dependences and new understandings of our humanity and the emotions that define us.

Genome-based treatment , based on wider and cheaper availability of genome data, will provide new ways to customize the therapeutic protocol and enhance our control over diseases and medical treatment. The speed, accuracy and costs of genome-reading have changed dramatically in just a matter of years: a decade ago, this process was  a billion-dollar effort , while today the price has dropped sharply to around $8,000. In cancer treatment, for instance, this will allow transitioning from broad-spectrum chemotherapies to more individualized diagnosis and targeting of specific malfunctioning genes.  As we are truly starting to gain more precise tools to fight life-threatening diseases, a range of other issues arise. Pervasive global inequalities will still prevent millions of people from enjoying the benefits of such treatments, even in a context of decreasing costs of genome sequencing. Furthermore, a range of security and privacy risks associated with data storage of genome data will invariably arise and require protective mechanisms, especially as such  databases are often shared  for security reasons (e.g. between international police forces), increasing the possibility of hacking.

Inevitably,  the emerging technologies  of the future will redefine our understanding of biology, the material world and manufacturing. The implications will further extend into geopolitics and global balances of power.  Fuel cell vehicles  are finally expected to make their way to the market and reduce dependency on oil or emissions that contribute to climate change. In the long term, this will accentuate the vulnerability of oil-dependent economies and recalibrate geopolitical relations.  Recyclable thermostat polymers , reportedly  discovered by accident , will dramatically change fabrication and manufacturing, leading to new standards in industries. Globally, the advent of  distributed manufacturing  is bound to lead to a reassessment of the meaning of value chains and infrastructure: rather than ship parts of a given product, some companies will simply trade information, leaving it to the customer to finalize the manufacture of the product. A suite of other technologies, such as 3D printing, informatics and robotics are enabling a paradigm shift to a  dematerialized future  with endless possibilities for customization.

Changes ahead

The Forum’s list of top 10 emerging technologies for 2015 alerts us to important changes on the horizon for all sectors. As always, we must welcome  innovation  and the benefits it brings us. But we must also remain committed to sustainable development, taking into account issues of inequality, human dignity and inclusiveness. Finally, this year’s top emerging technologies also remind us of the importance of political commitment. Take the example of the transition towards fuel cell vehicles: it will require huge infrastructural adaptations and conversions. In fact, it’s estimated that if the US government spent the same putting a man on the moon ( $100 billion in today’s dollars ), the shift to hydrogen-powered cars and gas stations that pump hydrogen would be significantly eased. Often, the technology itself is actually available, but it takes a massive exercise of political will to bring about change.

Some technologies might progress independently of political support. But  good governance , examinations of dual-use risks and ethical considerations must still remain guiding posts at all times. Ultimately, how we approach the regulation of emerging technologies will inevitably have wide implications – not only for security and ethics, but for our definition of human dignity and equality of individuals.

 

 

>> Back to GCSP Staff Publications

Welches Kind wünscht sich nicht, einmal vor Schweini, Klitschko oder Nowitzki zu stehen und alles zu fragen, was man will? Diesem Traum sind acht Stipendiatinnen und Stipendiaten ein kleines Stück näher gekommen. Erstmalig fand vom 6. bis 8. März 2015 in Kloster Banz das Projektseminar Sportjournalismus statt.

Egal ob im Social Web, auf Nachrichtenplattformen oder beim Onlinebanking: Überall verwenden wir – vermeintlich geschützt und anonym – unsere Identität zur Erstellung von Nutzerprofilen. Doch was passiert mit diesen Daten wirklich? Welche Rechte hat der Nutzer? Mit diesen hochaktuellen Fragen beschäftigten sich Stipendiaten im Rahmen des Fachforums Jura von 6. bis 8. März 2015 in Kloster Banz.

 

 

By Nigel Inkster, Director of Transnational Threats and Political Risk

The IISS Cartagena Dialogue is an exercise designed to bring together the members of the Pacific aAlliance, an economically liberal free-trade oriented bloc of Latin American states, together with the major states of the Asia-Pacific region. As such it seeks to identify commonalities and one such, the subject of illegal mining, will be covered in the special session that I will be chairing.

The commodities boom witnessed over the past decade has heralded an equally large boom in the phenomenon of illegal mining. When people talk about illegal mining, the assumption is that they are talking about small-scale operations with marginal local impact. But in parts of Latin America and Asia, such mining often takes place on a very large scale and has significant detrimental impacts. The fact that it is unregulated means the illegal mining industry observes none of the standards that should apply in the legal mining sector. The result is environmental degradation on a massive scale – deforestation, water and soil pollution, and high levels of toxicity from lead and mercury; the widespread use of child and slave labour; and the extensive involvement of criminal entities and insurgent groups. For example it is estimated that Colombia’s main insurgent groups FARC and ELN derive as much if not more revenue from illegal mining than they do from their traditional mainstay of narcotics trafficking.

Managing this problem is a complex domestic and international challenge. In the course of a weekend I don’t expect us to come up with comprehensive solutions. But there are grounds for hoping that the IISS Cartagena Dialogue will generate a wider awareness and understanding of the issues involved and help to generate some of the connections and relationships that will be needed to address the problem. A collaborative approach involving both producer and consumer countries will be needed – and many of the major ones will be represented at Cartagena. Watch this space.

This post is part of our content accompanying the IISS Cartagena Dialogue: Trans-Pacific Summit, which runs from 6-8 March 2015 in Colombia. You can follow the latest mentions of the Dialogue, or contribute your own, on Twitter via #IISSCartagena. Inquiries can be sent to cartagena@iiss.org.

Filed under: IISS Cartagena Dialogue

Le prix Albert Thibaudet a été remis cette année le 3 juillet 2014 à MM. Jean Lopez et Lasha Otkhmezuri pour leur ouvrage Joukov, éditions Perrin, 2013.

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Guest post by Diana Quintero, Vice Minister for Strategy and Planning, Ministry of National Defense, Colombia

Little is known about the Cartagena Dialogue – and I am not referring to a historical treaty signed in our beautiful walled city. Instead, I am referring to a new meeting point for leaders of Asian countries (such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia) and countries of the region (such as Chile, Peru, Panama, and Mexico) that will be coming together for the first time to establish a strategic dialogue on global trends in defense, security, and economics. Government leaders, academics and business people will participate in the dialogue, creating a bridge linking Asia with Latin America, as well as connecting Latin American countries among themselves.

A robust economy, reduction in poverty and unemployment, and the real possibility of finding an end to the armed conflict make Colombia a benchmark for the region and in the world. This is unquestionably thanks to the sacrifice of our soldiers and police – they are true architects of peace.

No country at peace can go without strong and modern armed forces. To offer assurance and security, law enforcement must be strengthened. It is the only way to create the right setting for a nation’s prosperity and sustainable development.

In the last decade, Colombia has been hailed by the international community for the progress it has made in matters of security. These results are due, primarily, to the increase in foot soldiers and the acquisition and modernisation of equipment, which have allowed an increased use of technology and greater effectiveness when protecting the Colombian people.

There can certainly be no better investment than that made in security. In fact, while the world at large discusses how to best resolve diverse conflicts, Colombia emerges as a great example in negotiated solutions.

The trust Colombia has built and our potential as a global actor make events like the IISS Cartagena Dialogue possible. This is an opportunity to share our success stories across multiple fronts. From 6–8 March, global leaders from the fields of business, politics, and academia will come together for strategic discussions in which Colombia will stand out as a central player in the fight against transnational crime and the reduction of social inequalities, building bridges that allow our nation to share its experience and capacity with the rest of the world.

This post is part of our content accompanying the IISS Cartagena Dialogue: Trans-Pacific Summit, which runs from 6-8 March 2015 in Colombia. You can follow the latest mentions of the Dialogue, or contribute your own, on Twitter via #IISSCartagena. Inquiries can be sent to cartagena@iiss.org.

Filed under: IISS Cartagena Dialogue

Ils ont moins de 40 ans. Ils sont entrepreneurs à succès, dirigeants et cadres à haut potentiel d’entreprises performantes ou d’administrations influentes. Ils ont en commun l’excellence du parcours, une réputation flatteuse, une influence grandissante et un potentiel hors norme. Ils seront dans les années à venir à la tête des grandes entreprises françaises, ou aux commandes des PME les plus dynamiques et florissantes du pays.

Pour la troisième année consécutive, l’Institut Choiseul publie le Choiseul 100, classement des cent futurs leaders de l’économie française.

Publié en exclusivité dans le Figaro Magazine du 27 février 2015, le Choiseul 100 est également consultable sur le site du figaro.fr

Télécharger l’étude complète ici.

Télécharger le communiqué de presse

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This article originally appeared in ISN.

What geopolitical factors helped transform Geneva into a global economic and diplomatic center? For Nayef Al-Rodhan, two of them stand out – the city’s role as a safe haven during the two World Wars, and its ability to provide a needed ‘coordination point’ during the Cold War.

Introduction

On 19 May 2015, Geneva will celebrate the two-hundredth anniversary of its accession to the Swiss Confederation. This occasion provides an opportunity to reflect on how the past two hundred years have transformed Geneva’s relationship to Switzerland and Geneva’s role in the world. With a population of less than 200,000 inhabitants, Geneva is a global and multicultural city, a hub for humanitarian diplomacy, an epicenter for banking and trading, and it ranks behind only Zurich and Vienna in global  measures of the quality of life .

Alongside New York, Geneva has also become one of the  most active locations for multilateral diplomacy  . It hosts 30 international organizations, including the European headquarters of the United Nations, 250 international non-governmental organizations and 172 permanent missions. In total, the international sector in Geneva employs over 28,000 people . Geneva is a center of humanitarian action, education, peacekeeping, security and nuclear research. This critical mass of mandates makes the city uniquely relevant in world politics.

The story of how Geneva acquired this role is tightly connected to the history of power politics in Europe, the distinct advantages of Swiss neutrality and the evolution of international diplomacy. Two hundred years ago, Geneva was treated as an object of geopolitics and bartered away at the Congresses of Paris and Vienna in order to establish a post-Napoleonic equilibrium on the European continent. This geopolitical role was retained until the Inter-War Period. Today, Geneva is often described as “the diplomatic capital of the world” and is an important node in the global economy. Two factors explain this remarkable transformation: 1) the role of the city as a “safe haven” that could offer intact infrastructure and ‘business as usual’ during the two World Wars and 2) its role as a hub of political and economic coordination between the West and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

Paris, Vienna and Geneva

The year 1815 marked the end of a fifteen-year period of  French rule  over Geneva. After Napoleon’s troops were driven from the city following his defeat at Leipzig in 1813, the Swiss federal assembly voted to integrate Geneva, Neuchâtel and the Valais into the Confederation, leading to the signing of the  Treaty for the Admission of Geneva  on 19 May 1815.

On Geneva’s part, the move for admission was primarily a geopolitical calculation. In an era of empires and nation-states, Geneva recognized that city-states would require a larger entity to provide for their defense and survival.

At the Congresses of Paris and Vienna, Geneva won support for its desire to become a part of Switzerland. Represented by the diplomat Charles Pictet de Rochemont, Geneva received seven communes from the Pays de Gex and twenty-four communes from Savoy. Both France and the Kingdom of Sardinia ceded territories for this purpose, according to the  Treaty of Paris of 1815 and the Treaty of Turin of 1816 .

Geneva achieved its objectives because they were in line with the geopolitical aims of the great powers of the day. At the same time, those great powers guaranteed the city’s neutrality which helped it to become an important setting for international cooperation.

Fifteen years after Geneva became the twenty-second canton of Switzerland, Swiss philanthropist Jean-Jacques Sellon created the Society for Peace. Another 33 years later, Geneva became the seat of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and witnessed the signing of the first international humanitarian treaty, the Geneva Convention, in 1864.

A global capital

The first attempts at formal international cooperation in Geneva were not resoundingly successful. The League of Nations, which came into existence in 1920, was headquartered in the city – first in the Palais Wilson and then in the purpose-built Palace of Nations. Though it ultimately failed to prevent the slide towards the Second World War, the League was not without its  successes : for instance, the work performed by the International Labour Organization, the International Refugee Organization and the Health Organization helped to raise Geneva’s stature in the interwar period.

Geneva attained even greater significance, however, in the post-War period when many high-level negotiations and diplomatic summits began to take place in the city. These included the 1954 Conference on Indochina, the post-war meeting of the Allies in 1955, the Reagan-Gorbachev Summit in 1985, START negotiations in 2008-2009, and the ongoing high-level talks on the Iranian nuclear weapons program. For its contributions to international peace and stability, Geneva-based organizations and personalities have received no fewer than sixteen Nobel prizes, most of them for peace. The first was awarded to Henry Dunant, the founder of the ICRC; the most recent was awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Geneva, however, is not only a global diplomatic capital but an important node in the global economy. In particular, it has become a center for the global trade in raw materials. More than 500 multi-national corporations trade in raw materials from Geneva, accounting for approximately  10% of the city’s (and the canton’s) GDP . On a given day, Geneva-based corporations process over  700 million tons of oil , which exceeds the trading volumes of the City of London (approximately 520 million tons per day) and Singapore (440 million). 80% of all Russian oil is traded through the city and approximately 20% of all cotton. Some estimate that a third of the global trade in oil, cereals, cotton and sugar, as well as half of the global trade in coffee are also  directed through Geneva .

Geneva has risen to become an important geopolitical city for a variety of reasons. During the First World War, Switzerland, and hence also Geneva, was able to offer “business as usual” to international trading firms. During the 1920s, the first cereal traders, such as André, came to Geneva, primarily to be close to their main customer, Nestlé. On top of this, several Ottoman and later Turkish traders found it convenient to establish trading subsidiaries in the region of Lausanne, located on the route of the Orient Express between London and Istanbul.

Furthermore, Geneva began to benefit from the image of neutrality bestowed upon the city by the international organizations which increasingly established their headquarters there. Yet it was perhaps Geneva’s role as a “safe haven” (and its intact infrastructure) during the Second World War that attracted the most business to the city.

During the Cold War, as a result, Geneva was already well known throughout the world as a ‘neutral’ trading location. This meant that it was in Geneva that economic and political coordination between the West and the Soviet bloc came to be orchestrated. It also continued to function as an economic safe haven. Indeed, it was to Geneva that Egyptian cotton traders transferred their activities during the Nasser era, just like many Arab oil traders after the oil crisis of 1973-1974.

Swiss meta-geopolitics

Undeniably, one of the reasons why Geneva is so international is because the European headquarters of the UN and its agencies are located in the city. This reflects Switzerland’s long-standing commitment to provide federal and cantonal support to the United Nations. Most recently, this took the form of a generous loan at preferential rates for the renovation of the UN’s Palais des Nations, covering almost 50% of the costs (approximately 300 million Swiss francs). Nowhere else does the UN benefit from such facilities and this level of support.

Over decades, Geneva has established a well-defined identity as a city of peace and an ideal meeting place for diplomats – whether in the field of humanitarian action, disarmament, climate change or other concerns. In recent years, activities in other sectors, such as the crude oil trade, have increased the city’s international renown. While Geneva faces competition as a global economic and diplomatic center from cities in Asia, Africa and Latin America – some of which are becoming prominent regional centers of dialogue and diplomacy – it is unlikely that the city’s stature will diminish anytime soon.

Using the framework of  meta­-geopolitics , the following table discusses the geopolitical strengths and imperatives of “International Geneva.”

Issue Area

Geopolitical Realities and Dilemmas

Social and Health Issues                                                                                                                                                

Excellent services, quality of life and an ideal location for diplomats and expats.

Geneva is a central location for global governance regarding social issues, public health, employment, youth, education and other areas.

Domestic Politics

Swiss neutrality, highly stable and democratic, but the initiative to curb the number of foreigners is perceived as a major setback for the city and country (although these regulations do not affected the staff of international organizations from the UN family.)

Economics

Trade hub, both private companies and inter-governmental organizations in the area of trade, development, labour.

Environment

The city and canton of Geneva place strong emphasis on energy-saving and a clean environment. In line with the Swiss environmental policies, Geneva has strict standards of agricultural biodiversity, waste management or water management.

Geneva is a center for environmental diplomacy and climate change dialogue (e.g. the UN Environmental Programme is located here).

Science and Human Potential

High-profile universities, excellent research centers in medicine, chemistry, physics and other sciences.

Numerous UN research centers and institutes are located in Geneva (e.g. UNITAR).

Military and Security Issues                             

Geneva is a key centre for disarmament diplomacy, including the Conference on Disarmament and is host to numerous NGOs and think tanks with a unique profile in security studies, small arms, demilitarization.

International Diplomacy

Unique strength as global meeting point for international diplomats, activists and NGOs.

 

Issue Area

Imperatives and future trajectories

Social and Health Issues                                                                                        

High quality of life, among the top best in the world (ranked before London) will make it attractive for foreign companies.

Domestic Politics

Greater openness to foreign workforce, imperative for more facilities for expats.

Economics

Increasing importance as trading center for petrol and other commodities, growing importance in cereals trading, insurance companies, consultancies and shipping.

Low inflation - gives strength to the economy

The simple and strict tax system, with some tax discounts for companies contributes to attracting companies and investors (taxes from 3.5 to 14.1%, compared to London - 30%)

Environment

N/A

Science and Human Potential

Continued investment in sciences and research. Excellent universities and highly skilled workforce on the local market are expected to attract even more foreign companies.

Military and Security Issues

N/A

International Diplomacy

Geneva will retain a prominent place in global diplomacy, yet the future of "International Geneva" strongly correlate with the future of the UN system.

 

 

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L’entretien peut être écouté sur le lien podcast suivant: http://www.rtbf.be/radio/podcast/player?id=1995957&channel=vivacite

This article originally appeared in the Global Policy Journal.

The fast-evolving processing power of computers is a fact that hardly surprises anyone today. This was predicted five decades ago by the co-founder of Intel,  Gordon Moore , in what is now widely known as the Moore Law. He postulated that processor speed (and overall processing power) for computers would double every 18 months and that the number of transistors on an integrated chip would double at the same pace. The law gained so much popularity that it became some sort of self-fulfilling prophecy and  chip fabricators   raced to make processors faster, smaller and simultaneously cheaper.

In the past decade, this trend appears to have reached a plateau as the  difference in processing speed  between 2000 and 2009 has barely doubled in a 10-year span. This has prompted conclusions that the end of Moore’s Law, anticipated for a while now, is nearing. To keep up with the demand to increase processing power, big companies will have to invest much more in research, thus potentially spiking up the prices of processors.

While the accuracy of Moore’s Law is now losing ground, this does not mean that the search for supercomputing has faded too. Moving away from conventional computing, with its already impressive power, quantum computing is part of a new revolutionary generation of computer research which aims to surpass not only limitations in speed but also in the  technical limits of the chip-making material . Whatever speed can be imagined with computers, it is nowhere near what quantum computing is expected to achieve.

In the 1980s, the  notion that quantum physics  could be used to perform computations simultaneously, on massive amounts of information, emerged for the first time. The quantum computer is considered a “ seventies child ” as its conceptual foundations were first laid during the late ‘70s and early ‘80s. The interest in developing such a machine, with unprecedented speed and agility, was revived in the mid 1990s, when computer theorists began to explore the possibilities of developing quantum computers. Highly ambitious researches placed overly optimistic bets that quantum computers could be in use by 2010. To date, scientists have yet to create an operational quantum computer but this task is surely not hampering its research and development. “ The Holy Grail of supercomputing ” is now drawing increasing interest and investment: NASA, IBM and Google’s D-Wave Systems are among the most important actors in the field and more recently, the National Security Agency joined the ranks by pledging $ 80 million on basic research in quantum computing.

What is so special about quantum computing?

Unlike a classic computer, quantum computers do not work in an orderly and linear manner.  Conventional computers  function according to binary logic, using 1s and 0s (“either/or” distinctions) and stringing together combinations of these. By contrast, quantum computing uses quantum bits or qubits, which are basically quantum particles such as electrons or atom nuclei. This gives quantum computers unique functionalities as qubits communicate with each other through entanglement and calculate every existing possibility at the same time. Qubits are placed in a state of “ superposition ” where they do not have values of 1 or 0 but both. In this regard, quantum computing is a step further from what is possible in the real world as  qubits   can be in more than one state at a time.

This means that quantum computers would be capable of huge calculations and enormous processing power. They could  surpass conventional computers  in speed and could help solve or race through problems that would normally take other systems eons to solve.

The ongoing research is also charting new grounds in material science and our understanding of materials properties. For example, a leading start-up in quantum computing,  D-Wave Systems , claims that certain types of metals, such as niobium (a soft metal that becomes superconducting at low temperatures), are key to the development of the quantum processor. Moreover, other recent breakthroughs in  silicon-wrapped quantum technology  prove again that more thorough investigation of materials and properties of chemical elements can unlock the unknowns that have delayed progress.

Quantum computers, once fully functional, will mark the ultimate frontier in computing, being able to make calculations billions of times faster. It is their extraordinary features which also prompt immediate considerations about their social and security implications. In a future not too distant, when the quantum leap will have reached an operational stage, we can expect a series of groundbreaking uses. For a start,  quantum computers  could help scientists find cures for cancer, advance research of Alzheimer’s disease, or find distant planets; they could be used to simulate or test certain political and military scenarios and inform policymakers about possible outcomes. But by far, the greatest scope for interest (and investment) so far has been the promise of quantum computing in the area of cryptography.

Quantum computers could potentially be capable of  breaking public key encryption , which is responsible for protecting almost all private communication online. Not surprisingly, the US spy agency,  the NSA , has been at the forefront for the development of the supercomputer which could crack most keys used for encrypted communication. Its sponsored research project, called “ Penetrating Hard Targets ”, aims to build a computer that could break almost all forms of encryption that protects medical, business, e-commerce, banking or government records in the world. Clearly, if successful, this would be the ultimate ‘Big Brother moment’ for the agency. Today, long encryption keys (particularly for sensitive information) are very difficult to break, taking up to several years but quantum computer could accelerate the process, making it millions of times faster. Similarly, since qubits cannot be cloned, hacking a code encrypted with a quantum computer is virtually impossible and hacking would mostly be a concern if a hacker were to have access to a quantum computer.

Racing for the supercomputer

The development of quantum computing remains highly disputed and advancing slow due to a combination of scientific unknowns, mixed reactions in the academic community and industries. A persistent obstacle has been the challenge of instability and vulnerability. Quantum computers combine computing with quantum mechanics, an extremely complex and still mysterious branch of physics. On top of this, as  calculations take place at the quantum level , no outside interference (such as light or noise) is permissible since the qubits would collapse and it would disrupt the calculations. This makes quantum computing extremely expensive to build and maintain.

However, as elusive as the search for the super computer might be, it has sparked a competition in which both states and private shareholders have stakes.

The US Defence agencies have been investing in quantum computing research for over a decade and other countries have gradually entered the race as well. Now China, Russia and other European states are investing in quantum research and Canada’s Institute of Quantum Computing at University of Waterloo is over a decade old. In late 2013, the  UK government announced  it would spend £270 million to build a network of quantum computing centres.

Security Implications

The construction of a functional quantum computer means much more than simply winning the innovation race and it has clear national security relevance. In the context of the current of development, the race is now fought at an academic level, where researchers work in interdisciplinary labs to shrink transistors to the quantum scale.

However, as pointed out by many, science is now inevitably done in global collaborative frameworks and it is quite difficult to estimate if there are guaranteed paybacks for individual nations. Ultimately, the Herculean efforts and funding that defence agencies pledge often pass through private industry and will benefit the commercial sector too, not only the government.

Quantum computing will have very disruptive effects, both at national levels and internationally. They will have implications for  information security , impacting both symmetric-key algorithms and public-key algorithms. If spying and mass surveillance are already impressively effective with the more limited means we now have in place, quantum computing will simply enable unprecedented breaches of privacy and access to confidential data in businesses, hospitals, banks or governments worldwide. The NSA  no longer hides  its support and sponsorship for the development of quantum computing which could be used to crack any encryption system in the world. Hand-in-hand with the race for the supercomputer is the race to ‘own’ the internet and gain virtually unlimited access to information. Quantum communication will redefine how we communicate, making data transfer faster and more able since quantum computers can process enormous amounts of information with high encoding and decoding speeds.

The amount of distrust already existing over questions of privacy both domestically and between governments is only expected to surge, creating further domestic and diplomatic frictions and accelerating competition between states. A likely scenario is that with functional quantum computers, some governments will speed up the investment for the creation of other,  cryptography-capable computers . At the same time, this competitive situation will leave behind less resourceful countries, widening a digital gap that is already stark.

The unique potential of quantum computers could also give unmerited temporary advantage to some individuals, retailers or groups over others. Quantum computers could dramatically improve stock market predictions thus benefiting  wealthy financial institutions . This is not an imminent risk since the fees for access to quantum computing will be staggering, yet the possibility of quantum computing entering the Wall Street is not to be dismissed.

Coexistent with its numerous security risks, quantum computing offers a set of unique opportunities for humanity and states. From better logistic optimizations to DNA sequencing, better predictions in global warming and weather forecasting, quantum computing means new potential to tackle global challenges, improve healthcare and find cures for diseases, solve optimization, labour or economic problems (including in agriculture or water management). The application of quantum computers to solve optimization problems could be especially useful in the defence sector or space, where it can significantly impact the speed and accuracy of operations. A quantum computer could calculate ideal paths for travel either on land or air and it could improve code verification dramatically. Indeed, software verification is a key element in the defence industry’s push for quantum computers, especially as complex software systems are increasingly at the heart of defence applications. The  F-35 joint strike fighter , for instance, has more than 10 million lines of code on the aircraft and quantum computers could be employed to do the code validation and verification.

Google also hopes that quantum computers could be used to make better and faster robots and more sophisticated artificial intelligence. Their use could also be extended to  aviation  in instances such as snowstorms where quantum computers could help find optimal alternative routes instantly. The Space agency NASA has also shown interest in quantum computing and its  Quantum Artificial Intelligence Laboratory  is working on exploring the likely applications of quantum computing in space. In addition to optimization solutions during space missions, such as better planning and scheduling, the lab is also working on improving the operations of NASA’s Kepler mission, which searches for habitable and Earth-sized planets. Current computational limitations, which use heuristic algorithms to identify transit signals from smaller planets, only help find approximate solutions whereas a quantum computer could perform data-intensive searches among the over 150,000 stars in the field of view of the spacecraft.

Emerging technologies for renewable energy are also taking into account the power of quantum computing and  California’s renewable energy program  aims to use “smart grids” or “quantum grids”, which is a network of quantum computers, to allow higher efficiency of input and output of energy.  Qubits  can also be deployed in solar panels to replace current photovoltaic cells technology or in quantum batteries and quantum dots can be embedded as semiconducting material, revolutionizing the energy sector.

Quantum computing is possibly a final threshold of scientific marvel, which will bring unparalleled precision and accuracy in computing. Given the extremely sensitive functions it can perform, it is critical that research and dissemination is done responsibly, with a view to harness its positive contributions. It is indeed critical that the development of quantum computing progresses in a way that will impede its becoming merely a tool for enhanced surveillance and endless control.

 

 

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