Diplomacy & Crisis News

The Vermont senator used a drawn-out primary to attack Clinton’s judgement on national security and international trade, so party unity may prove elusive.

Central Africa Project Director Richard Moncrieff gave his testimony on the humanitarian situation in Burundi to the UK Parliament’s International Development Committee on 12 July 2016.

Refusant le « coup d'Etat parlementaire » du gouvernement de M. Abe Shinzo, des Japonais manifestent devant la Diète tous les jours depuis plus d'un an. / Japon, Armée, Droit, Mouvement de contestation, Pacifisme - 2015/09 / Japon, Armée, Droit, Mouvement de contestation, Pacifisme - 2015/09

/ États-Unis, Japon, Armée, Relations bilatérales - Asie / États-Unis, Japon, Armée, Relations bilatérales - Asie

Les institutions européennes accordent une place exorbitante à la bureaucratie au détriment du pouvoir politique. Intervenant à tous les stades du processus de décision, ces fonctionnaires concentrent l'attention des lobbys. / Belgique, Europe, Banque, Élections, Entreprise, Finance, Fonction (...) / Belgique, Europe, Banque, Élections, Entreprise, Finance, Fonction publique, Industrie, Médias, Politique, Travail, Groupe de pression, Commerce - 2015/09

Cette recension est issue de Politique étrangère (2/2016). Rémy Hémez propose une analyse de l’ouvrage dirigé par Tatiana Carayannis et Louisa Lombard, Making Sense of the Central African Republic (Londres, Zed Books, 2015, 384 pages).

Peu d’ouvrages traitent de la République Centrafricaine (RCA), particulièrement en anglais. Making Sense of the Central African Republic est important car il rassemble quelques-uns des meilleurs spécialistes de la crise centrafricaine et propose une approche véritablement pluridisciplinaire. Il permet en cela de mieux comprendre ce pays d’environ quatre millions d’habitants vivant aux marges de la communauté internationale.

On ne peut revenir ici sur les douze contributions qui composent le livre. Elles apportent toutes un éclairage essentiel sur la situation actuelle du pays. Cela commence d’ailleurs par une excellente introduction à l’histoire de la RCA, rédigée par Stephen W. Smith, qui nous fait prendre conscience du tourbillon négatif dans lequel est engagé le pays depuis la colonisation. Les contributions suivantes alternent entre des problématiques assez générales comme la question de la richesse et de la pauvreté par Roland Marchal, ou les « pathologies » du maintien de la paix en RCA par Enrico Picco, et d’autres plus spécifiques, tels l’analyse des dynamiques locales du PK5 par Faouzi Kilembe ou un chapitre sur l’Armée de résistance du seigneur en Centrafrique par Ledio Cakaj.

Malgré cet apparent foisonnement, il est possible, à la lecture de cet ouvrage, de dégager quatre lignes de forces pouvant servir de guide pour appréhender la complexité de la RCA. Premièrement, il convient de prendre en compte l’histoire violente du pays depuis sa colonisation, car elle laisse des marques profondes, notamment en ce qui concerne sa structure sociale. Deuxièmement, il faut bien se rendre compte des faiblesses récurrentes de la structure étatique centrafricaine. L’État n’a jamais fourni les services de base et n’a pas étendu son autorité à l’ensemble du pays. L’utilisation de biens publics à des fins privées y est devenue chose commune. Ainsi l’État centrafricain est, pour la plupart de ses citoyens « une douloureuse absence et une présence blessante ». Troisièmement, l’insérer dans son environnement régional est crucial pour une analyse sérieuse. Le nord de la Centrafrique est par exemple beaucoup plus intégré avec les pays frontaliers qu’avec le reste de la RCA, et les crises régionales ont de fortes répercussions sur le pays. Enfin, les très nombreuses interventions extérieures visant à rétablir la paix ont toutes échoué car elles ont cherché à remplir à « faible coût » des objectifs de court terme. Les dynamiques profondes de la crise n’ont donc pas été traitées.

Cet ouvrage, indispensable à tous ceux qui s’intéressent à la RCA mais aussi à la question générale du peace building, démontre bien que l’explosion de violence dans ce pays depuis 2012 est le fruit de la convergence de dynamiques de long terme complexes. Le livre remplit l’objectif affiché par les auteurs : analyser pour la première fois en un seul volume l’économie politique, le rôle des conflits et l’influence des acteurs régionaux en RCA. Enfin, on ne peut qu’être d’accord avec le constat fait par les auteurs de la nécessité de traiter les racines profondes de la crise en redéfinissant les rôles de la société et de l’État centrafricains. Reste à espérer que l’engagement actuel de l’ONU en RCA – le plus important que le pays ait jamais connu – puisse répondre à ces exigences.

Rémy Hémez

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

(Own report) - NATO wound up its summit in Warsaw, Saturday, with a decision to bolster its arms buildup. The measures decided by the Western war alliance are particularly aimed at Russia. Four battalion-sized NATO-"Battle Groups" will be deployed in Poland and the Baltic countries - one under German command. NATO will also support Ukraine's armed forces and reinforce its presence on the Black Sea. The war alliance pursues its propaganda of Cold-War style alleged threat scenarios. With allusion to the "Fulda Gap," NATO identifies today a "Suwalki Gap" between northeastern Poland and southern Lithuania as an alleged gateway for Russian troops to Kaliningrad through Belarus, against which, NATO would be "helpless." Statistics show that the "helpless" NATO invests thirteen times more than Russia in its military. While the EU is enhancing its cooperation with the western war alliance, the US is heating up the next major conflict - with China - through its deployment of a missile defense system in Asia.

El gobierno insiste en que no habrá negociación mientras prosigan los secuestros y la guerrilla insiste en que esa condición desconoce la agenda. ¿Cuál es entonces el futuro del proceso de paz con “la otra guerrilla”?

Tiraillée entre sa volonté de moderniser son appareil militaro-industriel et la réalité de son économie en panne, la Russie cherche à retrouver son rang stratégique. Malgré des retards technologiques, elle demeure la deuxième exportatrice mondiale d'armes. / Chine, Russie, Ukraine, Armée, Nucléaire (...) / Chine, Russie, Ukraine, Armée, Nucléaire militaire, Commerce international, Défense, Économie, Espace, État, Géopolitique, Industrie, Industrie de l'armement, Mer, Mutation, Politique, Relations internationales, Technologie, Relations Est-Ouest, Diplomatie, Stratégie militaire - 2016/04

A ruling from The Hague next week on maritime disputes in the South China Sea is likely to exacerbate frictions between China and the U.S. Both would be better off respecting the central role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Expecting an unfavorable decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the Philippines’ challenge to its extensive maritime claims, China has intensified its long-held policy of divide-and-rule to prevent ASEAN from closing ranks behind the legal process.

Tuesday’s attack on Istanbul Ataturk airport will only exacerbate Turkey’s tourism and economic woes.

On Tuesday, June 28th Islamic State-linked militants assaulted Istanbul Ataturk international airport. The attack was a coordinated operation conducted by at least three foreign militants armed with assault rifles and explosive vests. The death toll has so far reached 44 dead and 239 others were wounded.

The attack came as a stern reminder of the elevated terrorist threat faced by Turkey. It also underscores the fact that the country is currently located at the cross-roads of ISIS international and regional terrorist strategies. The attacks at Istanbul airport will deal an additional blow against the Turkish economy. They will also raise further questions concerning the security of in-country and international large civilian infrastructure.

A further blow to the Turkish tourism sector

The wave of terrorist attacks that has been marring Turkey’s security environment since July 2015 has had a major impact on the national economy. The most direct hit has so far been felt by the national tourism sector.

Since the beginning of 2016, hotel occupancy rates have steadily been dropping every month in comparison to the same periods in the previous year. In March, the occupancy rates of hotels in Istanbul were down by approximately 30%. Two months later, these overall rates in Turkey reached 57%, marking a more than 40% drop.

These indicators are directly linked to a steady decline of foreign travellers reaching Turkey for touristic reasons. The two main groups of foreign tourists, Germans and Russians, experienced a 30% and 90% decrease respectively since the beginning of 2016. While the number of Russians coming to Turkey may increase following the lifting of Moscow’s travel ban, the volume of Russian tourists will likely remain substantially lower than usual during summer 2016.

It is probable that the bombing at Istanbul international airport will further increase foreigners’ concerns over the overall security environment in the country. The attack will have its biggest impact on planned travels to Istanbul and will also lead to an overall decrease of the demand for holidays in the western and south-western coastal regions of Izmir and Antalya. Indeed, post-attack security operations targeted suspected networks in Izmir raising concerns over the potential presence of ISIS networks in the area.

A deterioration of Istanbul’s security environment

The bombing in Istanbul underscored the overall deterioration of the local security environment. Since the beginning of 2016, the city has experienced four major terrorist attacks conducted by two of the principal terrorist groups operating in Turkey. Istanbul is exposed to operations carried out by both Islamist militants as well as Kurdish separatists.

It is noteworthy that ISIS militants have been carrying out operations in Istanbul, as well as Ankara, as part of the groups’ international strategy aimed at hitting high-level targets such as airports and key civilian places. Istanbul had previously experienced suicide bombings in touristic and commercial districts in which the perpetrators specifically targeted foreign nationals.

The selected targets are clearly chosen to hurt Turkey’s international standing in a bid to generate economic woes by hampering the national tourist sector and increasingly portraying the country as an unsafe place.

Airport security: A growing global concern

The latest attack raised questions over the Turkish security forces ability to prevent further terrorist operations. It also led to additional interrogations regarding the overall response to secure global airports.

While it has been positive that June’s attack in Ataturk airport did not lead to major air travel and operation disruptions like March’s attacks in Belgium, ISIS’ assault in Istanbul shows that airports continue to be a relatively soft target.

Security measures such as preliminary checkpoints, luggage and vehicle checks as well as identity controls may diminish the risk of attacks within the terminals but increase the volume of travellers exposed to potential violence on the outskirts of the airport perimeter.

As such, security managers of global airports and governments are increasingly looking for innovative ways to respond to the terrorist threat to airports. Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion international airport is attracting international interest over its unique system of airport security based on technical and human controls.

In the near-future, Istanbul and other international airports are expected to review their security measures to try to step up capabilities to mitigate the risk of additional attacks.

Turkey’s long campaign against terrorism

For Turkey, the elevated terrorism risk is unlikely to abate in the coming months. Kurdish separatist groups, Islamist radicals and far-left militants will continue trying to carry out attacks against security forces and institutions, as well as touristic and commercial areas.

This will result in an ongoing campaign against terror mainly directed against PKK-linked militants and ISIS-associated networks. Anti-terrorist operations will continue to occur in major cities, as well as along the southern border with Syria and in Kurdish-majority south-eastern provinces. Such raids increase the risk of localized violence and generate an overall risk of retaliatory violence.

This article was originally published by Global Risk Insights and written by GRI analyst Riccardo Dugulin.

The post The Wider Implications of ISIS’ Istanbul Bombing appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has joined a growing number of world leaders taking their message to one of today’s fast-growing social media platforms: Snapchat (@israelipm). Indeed, Netanyahu is already on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Instagram.

His first snap is a series of jokes—professionally edited to look unedited—spliced with the message that “Snapchat is a powerful medium and I look forward to using it to tell the truth about Israel.”

Some of Netanyahu’s jokes in his first snap:

• He starts by announcing that today he is joining “Stopchat.” When corrected, he deadpans: “Snoopchat?”
• “Since Snapchat disappears, I’ve decided to conduct all secret conversations and communications with Snapchat.”
• “You can only talk for 10 seconds. I wish we had that in the government.”
• He concludes with “now I can finally tell you all of Israel’s most closely held secrets, like…” He is abruptly interrupted by static and the SMPTE color bars.”

Netanyahu understands the power of unfiltered words, spoken directly to the camera. He was a masterful representative for Israel when he served as their Ambassador to the UN. He understands America, speaks English as a native, and is a powerful orator with a deep voice and a smile in his eyes.

Even before becoming Prime Minister, he has one of Israel’s most strident spokespeople, whether sitting down for a one-on-one interview with the American press or addressing the world through the UN.

His understanding of video seems to have evolved of late. He has recently released several videos (that have subsequently gone viral) which feature him sitting at a desk and speaking directly to the camera. He shared a touching response to the heinous Orlando attack; the Financial Times called his video a “masterclass in responding to tragedy.” It has been viewed over 22 million times and shared over 667,000 times online.

After Hallal Ariel was brutally murdered in her sleep, Netanyahu again chose to respond at his desk, speaking directly to the camera. His video response became a significant part of the conversation.

Netanyahu has long understood the media. It is now becoming clear he is also quite adept at social media. His interest in Snapchat serves as an easy extension of his online brand and it will be interesting to see how he approaches this new medium of communication.

I know that I for one will be following along. Join me in the conversation on Twitter at @jlemonsk.

The post Netanyahu has joined Snapchat appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

La fin des combats en Irak marque une étape dans la redéfinition de l'architecture internationale. En débat, la place des Nations unies et du droit international (lire « Justice internationale, politique et droit »), les rôles respectifs de l'Europe (lire « L'Union européenne malade de l'atlantisme (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Irak, Armée, Conflit, Géopolitique, Violence, Guerre d'Irak 2002 - - 2003/05 Animalité

L'offensive de l'Etat islamique en Irak et au Levant (EIIL) n'a surpris que ceux qui se désintéressaient de l'évolution du pays depuis le retrait des troupes américaines. L'incompétence du pouvoir central et sa politique favorable aux chiites ont créé les conditions d'une insurrection sunnite. / (...) / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Irak, Iran, Proche-Orient, Syrie, Islam, Kurdes, Minorité nationale, Droits des minorités, Religion, Terrorisme, Fondamentalisme, Guerre d'Irak 2002 -, Autoritarisme - 2014/07

Le 4 juin dernier, les chefs d’État et de gouvernement de la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (Cedeao) étaient réunis à Dakar. Signe des temps, l’ordre du jour de cette 49e conférence a réservé plus d’espace aux questions politiques qu’au débat sur le développement économique. En plus de l’examen de situations nationales dans des pays comme le Burkina Faso, le Mali ou la Guinée Bissau, l’organisation s’est surtout penchée sur des thèmes transnationaux comme la lutte contre le terrorisme ou les conflits liés aux activités pastorales, qui font désormais peser de nouvelles menaces sur la sécurité de l’Afrique de l’Ouest. Pour faire face à ces nouveaux défis, l’organisation doit se réformer en profondeur.

The July 1 terrorist attack in Dhaka hit unnervingly close to home. The Bangladeshi side of my family lost a relative -- Faraaz Hossain, a 20-year-old student at Emory University in the U.S. who was home for the holidays. I had been at the site of the massacre, the Holey Artisan Bakery, in Dhaka's upscale Gulshan neighborhood, twice during my last visit to the country. Personal grief aside, this is the most visible manifestation yet of the threat that a new generation of self-styled jihadis poses to a country that prides itself on its moderate, secular, pluralistic society.

The southern Philippines is potentially closer to peace than at any time in the four decades since Muslim insurgents started fighting for independence, but the substantial progress over the past six years is also fragile. The new President, Rodrigo Duterte, needs to build quickly on the foundations laid by the last administration or the process risks collapse.

A store in Venezuela with a sign saying “no light.” Despite lifting mandatory electricity shutdowns, Venezuela continues to have food shortages and a flailing economy. (Getty Images)

On July 4, 2016 Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, removed the policy of electricity rationing that had been in place throughout the country for over 2 months. During this time Venezuelans had to subsist without power for 4 hours per day.

Venezuelans have been suffering from many hardships in recent months, including a plummeting economy and food shortages. The limits on using electricity is the latest visible example of the country’s crumbling infrastructure, as well as the growing discord between the government and citizens of Venezuela.

According to Maduro’s government, the El Nino weather system caused a water levels in the Guri hydroelectric dam to drop to record lows. The lack of a sufficient amount of water needed to generate electricity led to the rationing. The government also cut civil servant working hours to 2 days per week to conserve energy, and Maduro actually recommended that women stop using hair dryers as an example of using “wasteful” energy. When implementing the power restrictions in late April 2016, Maduro claimed that Venezuela was “six days away from a collapse, we were facing having to turn off almost the entire country.”

But outrage against the government and its policies is growing as shortages of multiple supplies continue. Critics argue that the government caused the country’s problems through economic and resource mismanagement. They blame the energy shortage on over-reliance of hydroelectric power—about 2/3 of the entire country’s electricity is produced by the Guri dam—and failure to invest in Venezuela’s electricity production system. Beyond power outages, PBS Newshour’s Hari Sreenivasan pointed out that “Venezuelans are struggling with shortages of food, medicine and other necessities, with increasing finger pointing at Maduro’s leadership.”

Several factors have contributed to the current dire situation. Drastic declines in oil prices certainly have had a devastating effect. The price per barrel of oil on the world market has nosedived, dropping by more than half in 2016 from 2014. Oil accounts for about 95% of Venezuela’s export revenue.

But it goes beyond than this. Maduro has continued the policy of price controls on basic goods, such as sugar, milk and flour. Venezuela’s long-time ruler Hugo Chavez (Maduro is Chavez’s hand-picked successor) started this practice in 2003, hoping to make these items continually affordable for the country’s poor. Yet this caused producers of these goods to operate at a loss, and increase reliance on imports. Importing goods drove up prices as well as inflation.

With the weak economy overall subsidized goods disappeared from stores almost immediately after they arrived, increasing prices of basic items even more. The government has accused merchants of charging exorbitant prices to make profits, and people from hoarding goods to resell them on the black market. While the extent to which this occurs is unclear, it has been documented that Venezuelans often wait on lines for hours to buy small amount of basic necessities, riots over food and vandalism of stores are rampant, and many are going hungry.

Caracas resident Kelly Vega commented to the Associated Press, “We are eating two meals a day. If we eat breakfast, there’s no lunch. If we have lunch, there’s no dinner.” A recent Caracas university study found that about 12% of capital residents are forced to a skip a meal, a sharp increase from a few years ago.

So what can be done restore order? Especially if a growing number of people feel the government has caused the current situation, do they have an recourse to force a change? Some groups are committed to removing Maduro from power, it is remains to be seen whether or not they will be successful. In December 2015 opposition parties became the majority in Venezuela’s legislative assembly. They proposed an amendment to the constitution reducing Maduro’s term in office to four years (from six). But this past April the country’s supreme court rejected the proposal.

In May 2016 opposition leaders officially submitted a petition calling for a national recall referendum, which could remove Maduro from power. The petition accumulated 1.85 million signatures. Yet the government agency that oversees elections has not taken any action in response to the petition.

Nicholas Casey of the New York Times said on July 3, 2016 that it is unlikely basic food needs will be met before the end of the summer. Casey continues that it is unclear whether Maduro would accept a recall referendum, though also not assured that new government would do any better at making the necessary amount of food available.

It seems doubtful to me the government would allow a recall to take place. Chavez held an iron grip on power for over a decade, it seems doubtful Maduro would act differently. In the midst of much uncertainty, what does seem apparent is that Venezuela will not be able to rescue itself without help. Whether with a new government or the current one, civil society organizations, NGOs, and food relief agencies could make a significant difference. Though Venezuela has been resistant to allowing outside help in the past, hopefully its leaders can be convinced that the current situation necessitates involvement of other actors.

Venezuela could use help, or else the lights may go out again.

The post Venezuela Shortages: Past, Present, and Uncertain Future appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

En Grèce, l'imposition d'un troisième plan d'ajustement, le 13 juillet dernier, déconsidère le fonctionnement de la zone euro. Cette dérive antidémocratique inquiète jusqu'aux partisans les plus convaincus de la construction européenne aux rangs desquels figure le chef des écologistes au Parlement de (...) / Grèce, Ajustement structurel, Démocratie, Dette, Économie, Idéologie, Parti politique, Politique - 2015/10