Diplomacy & Crisis News

L'ex-plus haute fonctionnaire européenne chargée de réguler l'activité d'Uber travaille désormais comme lobbyiste pour Uber. L'art du pantouflage — vendre au privé une influence acquise dans le public — atteint ici son apothéose. / Droit, Économie, Entreprise, Personnalités, Technologie, Transports, (...) / Droit, Économie, Entreprise, Personnalités, Technologie, Transports, Groupe de pression - 2016/07

La victoire du Brexit constitue bien un coup de tonnerre pour l'ensemble du Vieux Continent. Car, cette fois, il sera difficile d'ignorer le suffrage universel en s'appuyant sur une classe politique désavouée par le résultat du référendum du 23 juin afin de rafistoler un arrangement rejeté par le (...) / Europe, Royaume-Uni, Démocratie, Mutation, Politique, Protectionnisme - 2016/07

Westerners said the web could never be controlled. Lu Wei, China's departing internet czar, proved them all wrong.

The country's top court declined to revisit a law that targets gay sex — the latest setback for the subcontinent’s LGBT community and its struggle for equality.

The Islamic State seized a trove of weapons from U.S.-backed rebels, including U.S. ammunition, mortars, and a pickup truck.

Young Syrians living in Lebanon are attempting suicide in ever greater numbers.

How Democrats changed their decades-old approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict — and why the fight isn’t over yet.

More than two months after a convoy of vehicles carrying Samantha Power hit and killed a Cameroonian child, the family is being paid by Washington.

A Chinese tour guide is leading a group of tourists in the central city of Da Nang. (VnExpress)

Ahead of an expected unfavorable ruling for China over its maritime territorial claims in the South China Sea, in an international court case filed by Manila at the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague, Beijing has been rallying both international and domestic support to their cause.  

Internationally, Beijing’s Foreign Ministry claimed the support of more than 40 nations last month in its boycott of the ruling, while Chinese state media declared almost 60 this past week.  Only 8 of these countries have expressed public support and 5 on the list of supporters have even denied backing the boycott.

On the domestic front, state-owned China Central Television (CCTV) ran a video on June 21 to highlight Beijing’s argument, hoping to propel domestic support. The video, sanctioned by the Chinese Central Propaganda Department, was shared by CCTV on Weibo, China’s widely popular microblogging site.

And in a more concealed ploy, a “friend of the court” brief was submitted by a legal organization called the “Asia-Pacific Institute of International Law” (APIIL) in Hong Kong.  APIIL was only registered in Hong Kong a mere two months ago, has no website or public contact information, and is run by its chairman, Daniel Fung.  Fung is a delegate to the Communist Party-led Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) in Beijing.  Aligned with Beijing’s official position, the brief calls into question the PCA’s jurisdiction in the ruling over the disputed maritime territories, citing “factual and legal errors” in the case.

But the propaganda wars do not end there, as domestic Chinese tourists are now being indoctrinated to the South China Sea disputes. More than 10,000 tourists have taken a cruise ship to the Paracel island chain, which are in dispute with Vietnam. And this week, government authorities in the Vietnamese city of Da Nang are accusing some 60 Chinese tour guides of operating illegally in this popular tourist city and providing incorrect information about Vietnam’s history to tourists.  Many of the Chinese tour guides are employed by Chinese tour guides who hire a Vietnamese director to act as a front.  

Local Vietnamese guides, who find themselves competing for the tourists, have submitted photos and videos as proof to the Da Nang Tourism Department.  One Vietnamese tour guide has accused the illegal Chinese tour guides of even referring to the shores off Da Nang’s beach as part of China’s territory.

Beijing’s efforts to rally support ahead of the ruling in The Hague will not do much to change the eventual outcome, and could backfire internationally as well as domestically.  Internationally, the efforts are perceived as a failure – attempting to usurp international rule of law by uniting politically weak and economically challenged nations to its cause, with other nations calling out China for never having pledged support.

For its domestic audience, the stakes are higher.  Rallying patriotic support ahead of an expected unfavorable —and could easily backfire should Beijing lose and fail to respond in an adequate “face saving” fashion.   

The post China Extends Propaganda Efforts Ahead of South China Sea Ruling appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

al-Sisi and Netanyahu (Photo: Motti Kimchi, Reuters)

Russia’s new status as a pivotal nation in the Middle East’s security environment, accompanied with the American withdrawal and the  rise of ISIS, is pushing Israel and Egypt to rekindle their relations. As Jerusalem wants to retain its status of an oasis of stability amidst surrounding volatility and Cairo is struggling to re-establish itself after the post-Arab Spring fiasco, Russia’s involvement in the region serves as an additional stimulus for these strange bedfellows.

The Kremlin’s military campaign in Syria has successfully preserved Bashar al-Assad’s regime and saved Syria from slipping into the Libyan chaotic scenario. Moreover it is evident that Russia’s military bases will further augment country’s influence in the Mediterranean Sea and entire Middle East, allowing Moscow to actively participate in the regional security setting. Interestingly, unlike during the Cold War, Moscow is now seeking to build strong relations with all major players of the region including Israel.

Putin shares warm relations with both the Israeli Prime Minister and the Egyptian President. In effect, Netanyahu has visited Moscow three times more than the White House for the past year, and al-Sisi’s regime is looking forward to have Russia’s state nuclear giant Rosatom construct the country’s first nuclear power plant in El-Dabaa. In addition to their friendly relations with the Kremlin, Israeli and Egyptian leaders also share great relations with each other.

Israel has earlier returned to Egypt two sarcophagus as a sign of good relations between the two nations. Israeli Foreign Ministry Director-General Dore Gold told Reuters: “The return of the Egyptian (artefacts) is symbolic, more than anything, of the changing relations (between) Israel and Egypt.” Moreover, despite a direct violation of the peace treaty of 1979 terms, Israel did not object transfer of the Islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi on April 9.

As Israel remains the most stable nation within the region and the Egyptian economy heavily relies on Saudi help, both countries are interested in benefiting economically from enhanced cooperation. In particular, both Cairo and Jerusalem cooperated in removing obstacles to a multibillion-dollar natural gas deal, as Israel was close to settling a $1.73 billion fine that Egypt was ordered to pay, a move that could further encourage discussion of exporting Israeli offshore gas.

Cooperation between Israel and Egypt is also augmenting due to coinciding interests in terms of regional security and balance of power. Israel and Egypt were alarmed by the spread of transnational jihadi groups such as ISIS and initiated one of the strongest network of intelligence gathering, which was highlighted by the IDF’s deputy chief of staff. Security in the Sinai peninsula has also become a vital issue for both nations.

Egypt could also help to resolve Israeli-Palestinian issue and Gaza’s blockade. Israel and Egypt are discussing possible territorials transfers that would allow Egypt to establish a corridor to Gaza. Furthermore, Sisi is reportedly trying to bring Israeli and Palestinian leaders to Cairo for an Egypt-led peace summit.

In effect, by helping Israel to resolve its conflict with the Palestinians, Egypt is also hoping to receive support back. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper has recently reported Sisi’s request for Netanyahu’s help in resolving its dispute with Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam. The issue reportedly took place ‘due to Ethiopia’s intransigence and refusal to respond to the Egyptian calls to coordinate efforts during the construction and storage stages.’

Cairo might also hold old Ottoman grudges against Turkey’s ambitions for the region and Sisi would not want to cooperate with Turkey since it supported the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Thus, Cairo would rather seek cooperation with Israel within the current regional setting and try to alienate Ankara for as long as possible. Therefore, considering the current rapprochement between Israel and Turkey, Netanyahu will have to be more cautious while seeking to retain same level of relationships with Egypt.

The post Russia is Pushing Israel and Egypt Closer to Each Other appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

The Senate gives Puerto Rico a reprieve two days before a debt deadline.

Ce n'est pas vraiment une saga ni un polar, encore moins un essai, même s'il est instructif, mais bien un roman, un ouvrage-fleuve divisé en cinq livres, d'une construction aussi originale qu'époustouflante, leçon de géopolitique, travail d'historien allergique au sens chronologique. Pour son (...) / Caraïbes, États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Haïti, Culture, Femmes, Littérature, Spiritualité, Violence, Fiction - 2016/07

Occuper. Occuper, habiter les marges du rêve américain. Ou les pointillés de la colère. Afin de mieux les subvertir. Rose Zimmer est une obscure Juive new-yorkaise communiste, épouse d'Albert, « un héritier juif persuadé d'être allemand alors même que les nazis défilaient sous ses fenêtres », tout juste (...) / États-Unis, Communisme, Culture, Femmes, Histoire, Judaïsme, Littérature, Mouvement de contestation, Fiction - 2016/07

Every service occasionally goes through a slump.

General George Crook distrusted the whites on the frontier, and believed they had a vested interest in riling up the Indians so the Army would stick around.

I couldn't see the big picture from a lance corporal's perspective on the ground.

On June 22, North Korea launched two Musudan medium-range missiles, in defiance of the international warnings and sanctions from the UN. One of the two missiles successfully travelled 400 km and reached 1.000 km of altitude before vanishing in the Sea of Japan, close to the Honshu island, as reported by South Korea’s Joint Staff. Pyongyang’s unchallenged pursuit of its ballistic program reveals that international sanctions have not affected North Korea’s ability to develop nuclear strike capabilities.

This news was saluted by Pyongyang as an important step in the acquisition of advanced ballistic technology, vital to substantiate its threats toWashington and its regional allies. Japan and South Korea’s leaders have immediately denounced the missile test as an additional provocation, undermining international security and dialogue.

Japanese Minister of Defense Gen Nakatani declared the state of alert on Tuesday, ordering the SDF to intercept any incoming ballistic missiles entering the Japanese territory and waters. The Japanese Ministry of Defense also confirmed that DPRK’s midrange missiles could reach a potential range of 2.500 to 4.000 km, striking Japan but also a large part of the Asia-Pacific, including relevant American bases in the region.

Pyongyang’s Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM), based on Cold-war submarine missile technology, with a range of approximately 3.000 km, are still technically able to reach Japan, South Korea and even hit U.S. military bases in Guam. Kim Jong-un himself, has saluted the success of the test as a memorable achievement, stressing that the success of the recent test highlights North Korea’s capability to attack in an overall and practical way the Americans in the Pacific theatre as reported by the KCNA state news agency.

The implications of the new missile test

Albeit Washington has strongly opposed North Korea from developing intercontinental ballistic, the new missile test represents an evident shift in the regional balance of power. In the recent months, President Park has inaugurated a more assertive policy in response to North Korea’s brinkmanship, shutting down the Kaesong industrial complex and abandoning its traditional strategic patient approach, considered ultimately ineffective in pursuing the path of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.

Given the rising level of the threat represented by Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, South Korea has strongly increased its military budget in the last year with a further expansion ($32.5 billion), up 4% this year, in response to the imminent  military threat represented by Pyongyang’s restlees nuclear ambitions.

In addition, developing longer-range surface-to-surface missiles and expanding the aircraft capabilities has become the most immediate strategic priorities for Seoul. As stressed by South Korea Minister of Defense, Han Minkoo in the recent Shangri-La Dialogue hosted in Singapore, on June 4th, South Korea will not tolerate any further provocations and threats that directly challenge the security and the peace of the Korean Peninsula.

Yet, Pyongyang’s unpredictable provocations, coupled with substantial progress in increasing its pre-emptive nuclear attack capability, could seriously undermine Washington’s role as a security provider in the region. North Korean provocations not only represent an evident threat to the regional security architecture but are also a frequent challenge to the credibility of the U.S. security commitment in the region.

Obama Administration’s engagement in strengthening the participation of its relevant allies such as Japan and South Korea in strategic initiatives, but also in expanding deterrence capabilities in the Korean Peninsula remains the most pressing issue in protecting the American core interest in the region. Yet, Washington’s desire to accelerate the deployments of advanced missile defence system such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) represents an additional source of concern for the fragile balance of the region, given the strong objections of China and Russia that consider the deployment of the American defence system a serious security threat.

In different occasions, Beijing has strongly opposed the deployment of THAAD in the peninsula claiming that its radar system could be used to monitor China’s military operations rather than being oriented to intercept any incoming missiles from the DPRK. While THAAD itself does not pose a direct threat to China, the Chinese leadership is increasingly concerned that the rising tensions could soon or later lead to a military intervention in Beijing’s backyard.

The Chinese leadership has spared no efforts in pursuing stability and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, increasing the level of the pressure on Pyongyang that remains adamant in asserting its vocation as a Nuclear Power State. In the early June, a North Korea delegation, led by the former Foreign Minister and an influent member of the Politburo Ri Su-yong arrived in Beijing for a bilateral meeting, after the relations have gradually eroded as a consequence of the North Korea restless military provocations and missile tests that are risking to inflame the region.

Beijing has grown wary of the increase of the American strategic presence in the region under the auspice of the Rebalance to Asia strategy, inaugurated by Obama Administration in 2011. Besides, the dangers represented by the unpredictable behavior of the DPRK, the Chinese leadership considers the deployment of the THAAD and strengthening of the trilateral strategic cooperation with Japan and South Korea, a formidable plan orchestrated by Washington to contain China and undermine its core interest in the region.

While the North Korea remains a pressing concern for either China or the Unite States, Obama Administration has managed to consolidate its role in the region, but also fostering a new level of strategic engagement between Japan and South Korea, a critical pillar of Rebalance to Asia strategy.

The new trilateral agreement signed on the sidelines of the recent Shangri-La Dialogue is expected to boost the participation of Japan, South Korea in opposing Pyongyang’s threat to regional peace and security. On the other hand, the pursuit of a more assertive stance from Washington and its close allies could collide with China’s regional strategy, heightening the level of political and military tensions in the region and alimenting the perception of a plan to contain the Beijing’s claims of peaceful development.

The post North Korea’s Missile Tests Fuels Tensions appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Cultural Revolution. Among the well-known figures who took part in this political upheaval, Kang Sheng is, in the author’s opinion, the most interesting. Kang is regarded as the first generation of international relations specialists in communist China and the designer of the “China–USSR Grand Debate”.

Kang had been an adviser to the Central Cultural Revolution Group. Before his death in late-1975, he had been a member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and vice-president of the People’s Republic of China. He ranked fourth in terms of political power, and was only inferior to Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai and Wang Hongwen (at that time, Wang was regarded as the successor to Mao). Kang had been a party member since about 1925 and was an experienced party cadre. He had become a member of the Politburo after The Fifth Plenum of the 6th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party in 1934. He was in charge of intelligence and famous for his interrogation techniques.

When he died towards the end of the Cultural Revolution, he was accused of being the spiritual leader of the Gang of Four. The new CCP leader criticized Kang, suggesting that the only reason he had held high political power was because he had been able to gain Mao’s trust. However, this argument is not valid. Kang’s success in acquiring political power can be attributed to structural reasons, reasons which are also applicable in the Communist Party today.

The discursive power of identifying “external threats”

Kang’s greatest capital asset was his overwhelming discursive power in the field of international relations. Currently, one of China’s major concerns is the interference of foreign forces. Whether this is of real concern or not, officials at every level have been busily formulating policy in accordance with such doctrine. Thus, those who dominate the discursive power by defining the potential threat of such foreign forces are able to legitimize their subsequent actions.

In Mao’s era, the major external threat was not posed by the US, but by a revisionist USSR. Among the CCP’s high-ranking officials, there were only a few who understood Russian, and the number of those who had worked in USSR but were still loyal to Chinese Communist Party was extremely limited. Kang was one of the few. He had been assigned to work in Moscow in 1933, and was the vice representative of China in the Communist International. He thus gained experience of the USSR and was a capable Russian speaker. Kang spent 5 years in the USSR, but despite this he remained loyal to the CCP. His name “Kang Sheng” is a Chinese translation of his Russian name. His profile, even in the eyes of USSR officials, was impressive.

In 1960, Kang had represented China in the Warsaw Pact conference. As Sino-USSR relations had become frozen, Kang prepared a sarcastic speech targeting Khrushchev. Khrushchev had then criticized Kang as not being qualified to challenge him in debate. In response, Kang calmly defended himself by pointing out that Khrushchev’s qualifications didn’t match his, since Kang was already in 1935 the alternate member of the Executive Committee of the Communist International (ECCI), whereas at that time Khrushchev had not even been a member of the Central Committee. A Soviet representative recalled later that Kang had used his advantage to selectively transmit information to China and played a major role in the worsening of Sino-USSR relations. 9 Points to Criticize USSR was one of Kang’s a major contributions.

A talented artist

Another talent on which Kang could capitalize was his classical education and artistic ability. Although there were many intellectuals among high-ranking officials in the CCP, the qualifications of these intellectuals were highly inflated. The average educational level of the CCP was in fact even lower than that of the Khmer Rouge, whose ranks included a number of professors.

However, Kang, in addition to holding enormous political power, was one of the few whose abilities had not been exaggerated. His artist talent may not have been useful in Mao’s eyes, but Kang’s ideological manipulability allowed him to merge artwork with politics. He was generally seen as a specialist, and his persuasiveness is not in doubt. Kang had been born into a literate family and was raised with an awareness of the Chinese classics. He was also a very fine calligrapher and could use both hands simultaneously. Yu Qiaqing, the backer of Chiang Kai-shek and a Shanghai billionaire, had been attracted by Kang’s calligraphy.

As a consequence, Kang managed to gain employment with Yu as his personal secretary, a position he used as a cover for spying. It was during that time that Kang began to appreciate cultural relics and became a specialist in the field, familiarizing himself with all kinds of skills and techniques regarding the arts. He went under the name “Lu Chishui” and believed that his talent was greater than that of Qi Baishi. It has been suggested that Kang created the term “Shilin” for the scenic stone forest of Yunnan (although the word was erased after the Cultural Revolution for the sake of political correctness). What is undoubtedly true is that Kang is responsible for almost the entire collection of calligraphy that has been handed down from that period. The collection is referred to as “Kang Style”.

Kang had also learned Kung Fu when he was young and the use of assorted weaponry, and when he was in the USSR, he took up wrestling. In addition to this, he was trained to use a gun; he was a sharpshooter, and would execute traitors himself. As he had grown up in Shandong, which retained a strong German influence, he could speak German as well as Russian. His learning attracted many supporters, including the wife of Mao, Jiang Qing. Kang was the only person whom Jiang Qing would identify as her teacher.

The father of spying in the CCP

Though it is impossible for us to find much information about the policy that Kang formulated as one of the fathers of espionage, several characteristics can be gleaned from officially disclosed information. Unlike ordinary secret service agents, Kang was capable of quantitative management. He provided a number of quantified indicators to assess the loyalty of each CCP Central Representative. This data would then be processed by Jiang Qing. The assessment method was applied to all units and officials of all ranks.

Although false judgments and unjust cases were a common result, the method allowed an efficient reshaping of the ideology of the state, at least from the perspective of its leaders. It is widely acknowledged that “On Contradiction” proposed by Mao has been the guiding principle of class struggle. Actually, the principle originally adopted by Kang had been more orthodox, since Kang had been directly influenced the by USSR’s socialist theory. Kang had been in Moscow during the Soviet era of the Great Terror led by Stalin. As Kang had lived through both the Kirov and Trotsky cases, he understood how to manage through the “terror of quantification”. Mao might have had a superficial knowledge of and ability to integrate Chinese traditional emperor-style governance and the scientific management style of the USSR, but it was Kang who executed both styles competently.

Readers may well ask what value there is in considering Kang now, since he passed away so long ago. The significance of Kang’s case is that his rise was not only the result of individual effort, but also created by sociopolitical structure. If the Communist Party demands a change regarding the mode of governance, it is necessary to fine-tune its management style of the elite class and reassert the adoption of Mass Line. To justify the transformation, Kang’s three instruments of “identification of external threats”, “artistic soft power” and “quantified management style” are the necessities for power acquisition.

War on paper may seem easy. However, the reality is a lot tougher. To acquire all the instruments describe above, the individual needs to have relevant expertise, life experience, organizational skills, a certain level of political sensitivity and loyalty. Individuals possessing all these characteristics are rare. However, once such an individual shows up and holds power, how far he will go should not be underestimated.

The post Kang Shen and the CCP from an IR Perspective appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Mettre à profit la coopération économique au sein de l'Union pour accélérer la dislocation des solidarités nationales : et si le rêve bruxellois devenait réalité ? / Europe, Droit, Économie, Entreprise, Finance, Fiscalité, Immigrés, Migrations, Protection sociale, Travail, Néolibéralisme - (...) / Europe, Droit, Économie, Entreprise, Finance, Fiscalité, Immigrés, Migrations, Protection sociale, Travail, Néolibéralisme - 2014/04

Dans L'opinion du 15 juin 2016

Imaginons un instant cet enchaînement, qui n’est plus à exclure : le 23 juin, le Royaume-Uni quitte l’Union européenne ; Donald Trump est élu président des Etats-Unis en novembre ; en mai suivant, un président français est choisi avec une marge trop étroite face à Marine Le Pen, dans un pays de facto immédiatement clivé et paralysé ; quelques mois plus tard en Allemagne, Angela Merkel paie les séquelles de la crise des réfugiés, ou se retrouve avec une extrême droite puissante.

Les trois grands pays de l’Union européenne, quatre des piliers de l’Alliance atlantique, se retrouveraient alors, en même temps et pour plusieurs années, en crise interne et sans boussole. Ailleurs en Europe, le populisme - c’est-à-dire la mobilisation du peuple pour des raisons électoralistes sur la base d’un discours volontairement simplificateur – aura déjà frappé. Après une telle séquence, il est probable qu’il s’étendra encore. Notre rapport au monde ne peut en sortir indemne.

D’abord parce que les idéaux démocratiques en général, ceux de l’Union européenne en particulier, sortiront laminés par l’arrivée au pouvoir de candidats élus sur leur dénigrement. De cette crise des valeurs résultera nécessairement une crise de légitimité, de crédibilité et donc d’autorité internationale des pays concernés. L’UE comme l’OTAN deviendront les théâtres de divisions politiques funestes. La gestion des crises internationales devra se passer d’elles. En un mot, tout sera à revoir. Une page sera tournée, donnant à la période qui s’était ouverte avec la chute du Mur de Berlin, une issue pour le moins surprenante.

Lire la suite sur  L'Opinion.fr