You are here

Diplomacy & Crisis News

Les chants soufis de l'amour

Le Monde Diplomatique - Wed, 31/01/2024 - 19:28
Du soufisme, on ne connaît souvent que son évocation par des récits de voyageurs européens (Théophile Gautier, entre autres, avec Voyage en Algérie), ou des manifestations « spectaculaires », généralement destinées au public : un concert de musiciens de la sphère indo-pakistanaise (qawwals) par exemple, (...) / , , , - 2024/02

Au parloir avec Julian Assange

Le Monde Diplomatique - Wed, 31/01/2024 - 17:28
Depuis qu'en juin 2012 il a trouvé refuge dans la toute petite ambassade de l'Équateur à Londres, Julian Assange n'a pas mis le nez dehors — hormis pendant une minute quand les policiers l'ont jeté dans leur fourgon. À la prison de haute sécurité de Belmarsh, où il a été écroué le 11 avril 2019, on ne (...) / , , , , , - 2024/02

Les styles du travail

Le Monde Diplomatique - Wed, 31/01/2024 - 15:27
Raconter la condition ouvrière de l'intérieur semble susciter depuis quelque temps un regain d'intérêt, dont témoignent des journalistes en « immersion ». Mais c'est par l'invention d'un style qu'émerge, au-delà de la simple véracité, la vérité. / Société, Travail, Marxisme, Intellectuels - (...) / , , , - 2024/02

Dissidents, silence !

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 30/01/2024 - 19:01
John Mearsheimer est l'un des plus grands théoriciens actuels des relations internationales. La guerre d'Ukraine, qui oppose de plus en plus directement les deux principales puissances nucléaires, la Russie et les États-Unis, mais qui implique aussi l'Union européenne, la Chine et l'Inde, (...) / , - 2023/08

Il était une fois à Ouarzazate

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 30/01/2024 - 17:00
À Ouarzazate, Marrakech ou Casablanca, les figurants coûtent à peine plus de 2 euros l'heure, les techniciens ne sont pas syndiqués, des villages splendides servent de décor pour des sommes dérisoires, l'État garantit la sécurité, les incitations financières pleuvent. Résultat aussi : le cinéma local (...) / , , , - 2023/08

The Modernisation of Old Artillery

Foreign Policy Blogs - Tue, 30/01/2024 - 16:08

A picture of severely damaged Russian Il-22 command aircraft at Anapa Airport. – Giorgi Revishvili on X.com – Jan 15 2024.

 

The Russia-Ukraine War was never going to become a one off, short term, easily achievable event. Ukraine was equipped, trained and armed to be the defense line for the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and every aspect of their defence network and training was created to repel similar attacks like those that traumatised the Soviets during the Second World War. While many of us in the West were discovering home computers and Nintendo, Soviet engineers were designing defensive surface to air weapons and missiles and producing ever more accurate artillery systems that could be used by any Soviet citizen with little training. When Russia advanced in force into Ukraine, the conflict became one where those trained as the home guard to the Soviet Union, invaded those trained to defend the territory from such an advance. Years later, the conflict is still progressing with old technology being aided by new technology, and old equipment being refurbished from as far back as the 1960s in order to achieve modern objectives. Both sides are in a race to obtain as many artillery shells as possible, while dedicating their advanced missile systems towards specialised targets.

Russia has recently taken to creating additional artillery units out of two unique weapons systems from the early 80s Cold War era. Russia has taken their 203mm artillery system, the 2S7 Pion and advanced the systems on the battlefield. One of the world’s largest mortar systems, the 240mm 2S4 Tulypan is also being increasingly advanced into greater service along with the 2S7 Pion in an apparent effort to saturate targets with some of the largest shells used in conflict to date. Speculation has risen to the strategy behind specifically using and promoting these two older system, where the 122mm 2S1 and 152mm 2S3 and 2S19 are likely compatible with foreign sourced North Korean and Chinese ammo replacing Russian artillery stockpiles. While both Ukraine and Russia use the 2S7 Pion and perhaps the 2S4 Tulypan, extended use of these systems, with their unique long barrels and high pressure ammunition, wear out the barrels after a certain number of shots. Older equipment is often used to source replacements that are no longer being manufactured, so it was thought that any of these systems in storage were being used as barrel replacements for active units. With modern targeting using drone technology and advanced mapping systems, older systems have been able to achieve a more accurate and timely firing solution, and with the enormous shells being used by these two veteran systems, the effectiveness is greatly improved.

My suspicion is that since North Korea and China do not possess either of these systems, and that 122mm and 152mm shells are being depleted rapidly, both the 2S7 and 2S4 have been advanced into battle as their unique ammunition is still present for those specific systems. While putting out a message of strength that two of the largest calibre systems are advancing to the front, the possible shortage of the more common 122mm and 152mm ammo may have lead to the decision to use up whatever 203mm and 240mm mortar shells exist in their inventory until the Pions and Tulypans use up all remaining stocks or all remaining barrels. The confusing count on the number of such systems in active duty and in storage from just two years ago may be a sign of this show of strength strategy in 2024.

While Russia has taken great strides in promoting an image of strength in their conflict in Ukraine, the loss of two important strategic assets to unidentified missile systems has sparked great interest by those on both sides of the conflict. Recently a IL-22M was severely damaged by at least one missile, and an A-50 Mainstay AWACS type aircraft was shot down around the Sea of Azov, some distance from the front line. This version of the IL-22 was used to coordinate ground forces in the region, while the A-50 operated as an AWACS system, coordinating air and anti-air assets in the region using its extended radar system and communications network with all forces in the area. While the IL-22M was able to land with causalities, the valuable A-50 was lost, and with no easily accessed means to eject from the large A-50 aircraft, the crew was likely lost as well. Some speculation was that this was a friendly fire incident, but with the A-50 being one of the main sources of communications and command for any missiles fired in the area, this is not likely the case. In the case of an anti-air systems targeting either aircraft, systems such as the TOR and BUK operate in a network where each unit has a tracking and targeting radar in each unit or nearby, married to a local command post that is linked to a regional command post that is further linked to higher command units that likely involve at least the A-50, if not the IL-22M as well. Incidents like that of Iran’s shooting down of Flight 752 using two TOR-M1 missiles likely also would not be an accident due to the high level of integration and command over all units and each unit having a high level of information available to them when operating the site via their two TOR radars and shared information. With little information made available, a picture of the tail of the IL-22M has been made public, showing damaged that appears to be fragments from a missile strike similar to damage seen on the remains of Flight 752.

The loss of these two valuable and limited assets in the air will reduce information available to Russian forces on possible aircraft and missiles entering their secured zone. With so many advanced air defence systems in the region, aircraft have not been used in great numbers by either side, with cruise missiles and drones taking their place so far in the conflict. In any such scenario, the radars are usually the first targets as it can eliminate or incapacitate a firing unit from finding their targets. As seen in Yemen recently and during the Iraq War, radars are target number one before any coordinated advance can take shape during a conflict.

La religion sécuritaire

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 29/01/2024 - 18:36
Par les réactions qu'elles suscitent, les émeutes urbaines à répétition reflètent l'évolution du paysage politique français, passé au rouleau compresseur sécuritaire et identitaire. Hier avancée comme une évidence, l'explication sociale se trouve reléguée à l'arrière-plan ; en faire état est aujourd'hui (...) / , , , , - 2023/08

Banlieues, sermonner et punir

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 29/01/2024 - 16:36
Des condamnations dans 95 % des affaires, de la prison ferme dans 60 % des cas, une peine moyenne supérieure à huit mois. Le 19 juillet dernier, le ministre de la justice a dressé un premier bilan de la réponse pénale aux nuits de violence du début de l'été, alors que six cents personnes étaient déjà (...) / , , , , , , , - 2023/08

La Tunisie saisie par ses réalisatrices

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 29/01/2024 - 15:35
Des films tunisiens, notamment tournés par des réalisatrices, tendent à s'imposer sur les écrans : en juin 2020, pour la première fois, Netflix a ajouté quatre d'entre eux à son catalogue, dont Noura rêve(2019), de Hinde Boujemaa ; autre première en 2021, L'Homme qui a vendu sa peau, de Kaouther Ben (...) / , - 2023/08

America Can’t Win the Tech Race Alone

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 26/01/2024 - 06:00
Keeping its edge over China will require U.S. investment in innovation abroad.

The Next Global War

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 26/01/2024 - 06:00
Today’s regional conflicts resemble the ones that produced World War II.

Israel Releases Classified Documents Ahead of ICJ Ruling

Foreign Policy - Fri, 26/01/2024 - 01:00
The material aims to rebut South Africa’s accusation of genocidal intent in Gaza.

Europe Braces for Trump 2.0

Foreign Policy - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 23:30
European officials are scrambling to ensure the transatlantic relationship can survive the U.S. election.

China’s Problem With the Genocide Case Against Israel

Foreign Policy - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 22:09
Beijing backs the Palestinians in Gaza but faces its own genocide accusations at home.

What if Regulation Makes the AI Monopoly Worse?

Foreign Policy - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 18:24
In an industry already primed for concentration, creative alternatives for safeguarding the public interest are needed.

The White House’s Big Gamble on Venezuela

Foreign Policy - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 17:56
In lifting tough sanctions on Maduro, Biden will test whether sanctions can work as a diplomatic tool.

The Hidden Rivalry of Saudi Arabia and the UAE

Foreign Policy - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 16:57
The two countries look like allies—but are increasingly regional competitors.

Why the War in Gaza Makes a Nuclear Iran More Likely

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 06:00
The conflict has empowered Tehran—but also fueled its sense of vulnerability.

The Myths That Warp How America Sees Russia—and Vice Versa

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 06:00
How mutual misunderstanding breeds tension and conflict.

U.N. Shelter in Gaza Hit by Israeli Shells Amid Fighting

Foreign Policy - Thu, 25/01/2024 - 01:00
Meanwhile, Israel denied reports that a possible 30-day cease-fire with Hamas was being negotiated.

Pages