Diplomacy & Crisis News

The Winter War that started in 2022 between Russia and Ukraine had some very surprising outcomes, one of which being that it is still going on in 2025. The defence Ukraine provided for itself with limited initial assistance from the West showed how effective the Soviet defences would have been during the Cold War. Ukraine’s armed forces and its defences was the barrier between East and West, with much of the Soviet weapons, plans, and systems for protecting the Greater Soviet Union being based in Ukraine. Attacking one of the greatest defensive structures in modern history with capabilities from the late 80s, proved to be as difficult to collapse as designed, even with modern 2022 weapons. Three years later, most of the modern 2022 weapons systems are burnt hulks on the Ukrainian plains, and the great Soviet weapons stockpiles have been stripped and torn apart in war, used by both sides of the conflict.

With Russia depleted and weakened, and its allies in the southern regions on the edge of failing, it remains a question to whether or not a failed Russia would be a better strategic outcome for the West. At the end of the Cold War, the menace that faced the world came about in the form of insurgency movements, supplied by smaller players at the will of larger adversaries. Sufficient attention to terror threats like those currently in Nigeria were effectively ignored, or given little attention that lead to any effective solutions. Today, the largest threats come from internal strife, likely designed to weaken and perplex any solutions, funded from abroad. Even with strategic victories in Europe and the Mid East, the main threat of large military action will come from Asia, and a feebled West will enable a large assault when weakness in leadership is demonstrated in North America and Europe. That claim can easily be made, linking the escape from Afghanistan towards enabling the war in 2022, a pure example of War Through Weakness.

China’s latest demonstration of its military prowess came with the introduction of several long range missile types, married to laser based defensive weapons systems. With the success of the China made J-10 against Indian Rafale jets, the move from Russia being the world’s largest weapons exporter towards China is likely to take shape rapidly. India itself uses licensed produced T-90 tanks and Sukhoi jets, technology that always surpassed China’s military technology in the past, but was unable to give significant advantage in the recent bout with Pakistan. Russia in its weakened state would secede a lot of regional power dynamics towards insurgencies in the South and China in the East, a security problem that could become more dynamic and difficult to address for the West in the future. With so little attention given to smaller regional conflicts, the likelihood of a small regional issue being felt in the West is almost a certainty, with Europe and the United States being target number one by all of these groups. Asymmetric warfare can never be ignored, even when a conventional war is the focus of defense policy.

Russia’s losses in Ukraine has lead to such a massive depletion of equipment, that the most substantial T-72 stockpiles are now likely in the old Soviet periphery of the Caucasus region and by allies like Venezuela. China, who has already taken to replacing much of its modern 2008 equipment with newer systems, has the largest and most modern standard military force in the world. While quantity has its own quality, massive quantities of common tanks like the ZTZ96 are at least equal to a T-72B, and the ZTZ99 variants can match the capabilities of a T-90, with more modern variants recently demonstrated in China amongst missiles and lasers. While the PLA ground forces would most likely be used against Indian forces on the border regions, China’s strategic missile forces are meant for the US Navy and for an assault on Taiwan. Western allies must decide what they wish for in their relations with Russia and end any adversarial support coming from other regions as soon as possible, as the main field of battle is now internal. Without addressing internal divisions, a motivation will come about for the massive army being built by China to advance an assault. A signal of weakness is being sought to continue the 2022 war beyond Europe to go worldwide. You can see it in every town and city in the West, and in every cannon forged for the PLA daily.

Ukrainian Made, Russian privately owned, Antonov AN-124 cargo plane grounded and ceased in Toronto, Canada since Feb 2022 after bringing in Covid supplies for the Canadian Government.

The united front in support of Ukraine solidified itself when the new US Administration’s efforts to bring a rapid end to the conflict was met with drone incursions outside of Ukraine’s territory, into the airspace of NATO countries. While efforts continue to negotiate an end to the conflict, support of Ukraine by all NATO allies continues, with advanced weapons from the US, France, Sweden and others in support of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. With a new funding arrangement since 2024, the importance of a united NATO is likely the only method to end the madness of the death machine that is the War in Ukraine.

One ally of the West, Canada, has taken its own approach in challenging the norm in US and NATO relations. Canada is unique in that is lies at the geographical centre of many world conflicts, and is a key ally that could help bring an end to conflict, or enable a long grind for its allies in this war. Canada is a microcosm of the West in its economy, location and values, but has chosen its trade relationship as the focus of its economy and security. The three pressures Canada face are China in the East, to Russia in the North, and Europe in the West. Canada’s response to the US and these three challenges will define Canada’s next generation of progress, whether they like it or not.

Canada seems to have taken an opposite track with their allies on China, doing little to challenge influences from their regime. Canada is considering increased trade with China to counter trade limits placed on it by the US, while similar limits are currently burdening Canada-China trade relations. Canada has been reticent to share intelligence information requested by the US on many occasions, done so despite the fact that the US-Canada border was at one point the most lucrative trading relationship in the world, and could easily regain that title in a year or two if needed. Canadian elections have been influenced from China on a few occasions, making running as a democratic candidate in Canada something that could hold risk from abroad. The reality is that many foreign actors infiltrate common allies like the UK for its financial industry and Australia for its role as a strong Western ally in the East, but Canada’s close proximity to the US with a largest undefended border is a strategic asset for any regime targeting the United States. While Canadian interests not being American interests may win elections, developing Canada into a hub for the interests of non-NATO allies hurts all Canadians.

It is never mentioned in the Canadian narrative that Canada has a Northern border with Russia. As an ally of Ukraine and NATO, Canada is responsible for defending itself from Northern incursions from Russian territory, especially those involving ballistic missiles. While Canada and the US always had a defensive posture via NORAD, the latest developments has Canada planning to move away from the US and purchase a defense radar complex from Australia. While the system from Australia is likely perfectly suited for Canada, the distance and parts to repair it if attacked or damaged leaves logistical issues that would not exist if using a system closer to Northern Canada coming from the US. Shipping parts from Australia to Canada post-attack would leave shipping vessels open to attack from China’s PLAN and Russia’s Navy, with little support ships from Canada existing to protect against an attack at the other end of the Pacific Ocean. Planes to ship such large parts were often contracted out to companies using Antonov aircraft, made in Ukraine, but used by companies incorporated in Russia. The US plan to produce a Golden Dome missile defense shield over North America may remedy many of these issues, but Canada would need to fully choose those tied in systems, likely not using their Australian radars in the infrastructure of the system. While THAAD type systems would make up the bulk of the first iterations of the Golden Dome, Canada would need to choose a path to keep itself safe as well, while supporting the safety of the US to the south. Radar detection means little when you have no missile interceptors to defend your cities, and most of your best equipment was sent to Ukraine’s border. It is unsure what military assets are capable in 2025 to defend Canada’s Northern Border region, and it is likely the case that Canada’s North is so poorly equipped that it is undefended at the moment from anything more than a slow 1950s era TU-95 Bear bomber. At this point, it is unsure what Canadian assets are defending the North from Russia’s mobile Topol missiles.

Canada’s narrative seems to be ignoring the issues above, in favour of the concept of becoming a member of the EU. While the Canadian government claims it has great ties to the EU, Canada’s own coat of arms shows ties to the United Kingdom historically and culturally, a region that has been divorced from the European Union for a few years. Canada’s main ties to the EU comes from their defense agreements via NATO, and NATO is focused on the defense of Western Europe. European powers would not be capable of adjusting to a defense of Canada due to distance and the vastness of Canada’s landmass, being limited themselves in defending from ballistic missile attacks using a lot less sophisticated weapons than a Topol missile system. Europe currently are tied up defending against drone incursions into Western Europe, and Canada would simply not ever be a priority for NATO.

Canada has its own issues making NATO a priority. Canada was asked directly to help ease the energy tensions in Europe from the Ukraine War, and declined the opportunity to help European citizens. After being openly requested to do so by European allies and Japan, Canada’s Government continues to refuse to take any meaningful steps to help send its oil and gas to Europe and Asia to help its Western allies. In the midst of this policy, Europe sought oil relief from using Russian oil bought from third party nations, only now to see it ceased due to the US targeting those nations purchasing Russian oil and gas. Despite all this, Canada has yet to take any serious steps to support its allies with its energy resources, but continues with its narrative for electoral gains.

The reality of Canada joining the EU comes after a generation of limited and failed trade agreements between Canada and the EU and Canada and the UK, the latter never being solidified due to limitations on access to Canada’s dairy sector. The same limit Canada placed on the US, ended up halting the Canada-UK trade agreement over Canadian agro sectors. While there is a Canada-European Union trade agreement, adding Canada to the EU would be counterproductive as Canada would burden the European Union’s agro sector by directly competing with it, something the EU never permits. Even when accepting new members into the EU, countries with large agro sectors like Poland were only admitted when they agreed to be discriminated against via their agro sector in favour of existing members keeping their benefits to those sectors. Canada’s massive agro sector has no value to the EU, and would be a disruption to local political interests. Europe’s need for Canadian oil and gas has already been scuttled by Canadian energy policy, or lack thereof, so Europe doesn’t need Canada, and when it does, Canada refused to give substantial help, even during the War in Ukraine.

The current policy limiting the sale of Russian energy is one of the best tools for winning the war. Canadian energy could be a near perfect remedy against European dependency on Russian oil and gas, helping all Europeans and other allies as a core strategic asset in the Ukraine War. Canadian policy could greatly contribute to ending the war sooner, keep Canadian safer, and produce a more prosperous relationship between Canada and the world. Canada does not seem to be going in that direction unfortunately, despite it being their duty as a NATO and Western ally. Europe will not seek added detriments from an additional member to the EU if that member has no ability to defend itself internally or externally, nor trade with its allies for needed assets. It is a choice for those in Canada to make if they wish to become part of the productive world, or become a victim of their own short term narratives. In Canada’s case, voting truly matters.