The Resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict is a fundamental interest of the EU. The EU’s objective is a two-state solution with an independent, democratic, viable and contiguous Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace and security with Israel and its other neighbours.
Von 09.30 bis 16.30
Universität Zürich – Hörsaal: KOL-E-13
Anmeldung erforderlich bis Montag den 9. November 2015
sekretariat@strategische-studien.com
Zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt ist die Russische Föderation in zwei verschiedenen Kriegsgebieten verwickelt.
Ukraine: Seit 2014 unterstützt Russland die Separatisten in der Ostukraine mit Waffen, Beratungen, Führungen und einzelnen Kampfverbände. Nachdem das Gebiet in den ukrainischen Provinzen Luhansk und Donezk mehr oder weniger abgerundet erscheint und Russland aufgrund seiner logistischen Probleme militärisch nicht weiter in die Ukraine vorstossen kann, ist der Kreml offenbar zu einem echten Waffenstillstand bereit. Vielleicht begnügt sich Moskau mit Hilfe eines eingefrorenen Konfliktes Kiew immer wieder politisch unter Druck zu setzen.
Syrien: mit der Stationierung und dem Einsatz von Kampfflugzeugen versucht Putin das Regime von Assad zu retten, dem Regime mindestens ein Minimum an Territorium zu erhalten und seinen Marinestützpunkt in Syrien zu schützen. Zu diesem Zweck bombardieren die russischen Kampfflugzeuge die nordwestlichen Gebiete Syriens, die vor allem unter der Kontrolle der gemässigten Opposition stehen. Durch diese Bombardierungen besteht die Gefahr, dass diese Opposition sich dem IS anschliessen könnte. Sollte Putin seinen Luftkrieg auf den Irak ausdehnen, dann wäre eine Konfrontation mit der durch die USA geführten Allianz durchaus denkbar.
Le D’Entrecasteaux est le premier des quatre nouveaux Bâtiments Multi-Missions (B2M) promis à la Marine nationale pour remplacer en Outre-Mer, ses Bâtiments de transport léger (BATRAL). La tête de série du programme B2M doit être livrée en octobre, en vue d’une mise en service début 2016. Il rejoindra alors sa base de Nouméa, en Nouvelle-Calédonie.
En décembre 2013, trois exemplaires de Bâtiments Multi-Missions (B2M) ont été commandés aux industriels français Piriou et DCNS, le contrat comprend une option pour un quatrième exemplaire. Après la découpe de la première tôle, le 25 avril 2014 dans les chantiers Piriou de Concarneau, la mise sur cale de la tête de série est intervenue un mois plus tard. Une partie des blocs constituant le premier B2M a été réalisée à Gdansk, en Pologne. Transportés sur une barge, ces blocs sont arrivés à Concarneau fin août 2014. Sortie des chantiers fin mai 2015 et après deux mois passés sur l’élévateur, il a été mis à l’eau le vendredi 31 juillet 2015. Le D’Entrecasteaux reste la propriété de la société Kership, filiale du chantier naval Piriou et DCNS. Le navire est donc mis à la disposition de la Marine nationale, qui en prendra possession au printemps 2016 pour l’envoyer ensuite à Nouméa, où il remplacera le Bâtiment de transport léger (BATRAL) Jacques Cartier, désarmé en 2013. Le vendredi 16 octobre 2015, le contre-amiral Damlaincourt, adjoint à Brest de l’amiral commandant la Force d’Action Navale (FAN), a fait reconnaître le capitaine de corvette Benoît Bariller comme commandant de l’équipage « A » du bâtiment multi-missions D’Entrecasteaux.
Le D’Entrecasteaux sera suivi par le Bougainville, en cours d’assemblage chez Piriou, qui ralliera la Polynésie française à l’été 2016. Le troisième B2M prendra le nom de Champlain et sera quant à lui positionné à La Réunion, où il est attendu début 2017. Quant au quatrième bâtiment de cette classe, dont le nom n’est pas encore défini, il doit être commandé d’ici 2017 à Kership en charge de ce programme, pour remplacer à Fort de France (Antilles) le BATRAL Dumont d’Urville.
Longs de 65 mètres pour une largeur de 14 mètres et un déplacement de 2 300 tonnes en charge, les B2M pourront atteindre la vitesse de 15 nœuds. Armées par un équipage de 20 marins, ces unités pourront réaliser 30 jours d’opérations sans ravitaillement et seront capable de naviguer 200 jours par an. Pour surveiller et protéger la Zone Économique Exclusive (ZEE) française, les B2M auront de solides moyens de communication, notamment satellitaires, seront dotés de deux mitrailleuses de 12.7mm et pourront mettre en œuvre des embarcations rapides pour les interceptions et les contrôles. Ils pourront également assurer des missions d’assistance au profit des populations, par exemple suite à une catastrophe naturelle. A cet effet, ils pourront accueillir des conteneurs sur la plage arrière, manutentionnés à l’aide d’une grue d’une capacité de 12 tonnes à 14 mètres (ou 10 tonnes à 17 mètres). Ils pourront également embarquer un petit chaland de débarquement de 8 mètres, qui pourra déposer à terre du matériel et du personnel. Les B2M seront en mesure de projeter une petite force de 20 personnes avec armes et munitions, par exemple des soldats, gendarmes ou policiers (logements prévus à bord), mais aussi accueillir des naufragés ou des ressortissants en cas d’évacuation. Ils pourront également déployer des plongeurs et des équipements sous-marins, y compris des drones.
La Marine nationale a retenu des noms de grands navigateurs et explorateurs français pour ses nouveaux bâtiments multi-missions. Le premier de la série est baptisé en hommage à Antoine Bruny d’Entrecasteaux (1737-1793). Cet officier de marine s’est illustré en ouvrant une nouvelle route maritime vers la Chine. En 1788, alors que l’on est sans nouvelle du corps expéditionnaire emmené par Jean François de Galaup, comte de La Pérouse (1741-1788), parti de Brest en août 1785 avec deux frégates, l’Astrolabe et la Boussole, Louis XVI demande à d’Entrecasteaux de retrouver l’expédition. Il quitte Brest avec La Recherche et L’Espérance et manque les probables rescapés en passant près de Vanikoro, dans le Pacifique sud. Mais ce voyage via le cap de Bonne Espérance, à travers l’Océan Indien, l’Océanie et jusqu’en Asie du sud-est, qui a coûté la vie à d’Entrecasteaux, décédé du scorbut en 1793, se solda par de nombreuses découvertes et permit d’enrichir les connaissances sur les régions traversées. C’est ainsi que d’Entrecasteaux a rejoint la lignée des grands explorateurs français, plusieurs bâtiments de la marine ayant porté son nom.
On 25 October Ukrainians elected their local, rayon (subregional) and oblast (regional) council deputies and mayors. These were the first country-wide local elections held since the Euromaidan revolution of 2013-2014, and there was an expectation that they would help bring about a democratic renewal of political elites at the local and regional level. Importantly, as a result of the ongoing decentralisation reform, the newly elected council members and mayors will have more resources and executive powers.
Sandro Weltin_Council of Europe_CC BY-ND 2.0
The elections have been competitive, with over 130 parties running. The electoral turnout was 46.6 per cent, which is lower than the 52 per cent turnout in the 2010 local elections. Although electoral standards have improved since the 2010 elections held under ex-president Viktor Yanukovych, unlawful practices, including vote buying and the use of the ‘administrative resource’ (incumbents use of public resources to harvest votes) have been reported. Many irregularities are also related to the implementation of a new electoral law: many of its provisions are vague and the electoral commissions have not been sufficiently trained to navigate the new legislative measures. Still, according to Ukrainian NGO watchdogs and international observers, overall the elections respected the democratic process.
The local elections did not take place in Crimea (occupied by Russia), the separatist-controlled territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and areas in close proximity to the frontline. On election day, the vote was cancelled or ruled invalid by the local electoral commissions in three Kyiv-controlled municipalities of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, including in Mariupol, a city with half a million residents near the frontline with separatist forces. In Mariupol, local civil society accused the Opposition Bloc and oligarch Rinat Akhmetov of attempting electoral fraud by printing duplicates of the ballot papers. Local civil society also held the Kyiv government and the Central Electoral Commission responsible for failing to guarantee fair and transparent elections in Mariupol.
Judging from exit-poll data, it seems that the elections are likely to bring important changes to Ukraine’s politics. In the 2010 local elections, the Party of Regions (PoR) led by former president Yanukovych secured absolute majorities in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine and the pro-European opposition won mainly in the western regions. In 2015, the East-West divide of Ukraine into Russia-oriented and Europe-oriented regions has been blurred (although not entirely disappeared) – a trend already visible in the results of the 2014 parliamentary elections. The results point to greater regional diversity: there are not only two or three Ukraines, but many.
Former PoR members still won in the southern and eastern regions, running under new party denominations, such as the Opposition Bloc, the Revival Party and the Our Country party. But unlike in 2010, they have competed against each other and have not obtained absolute majorities, except in a few cases.
The parliamentary coalition parties that took part in the elections – President Petro Poroshenko’s bloc ‘Solidarity’, Yulia Tymoshenko’s ‘Motherland’ and ‘Self-Reliance’ led by Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovyi – won in the west and centre of the country. However, they faced tough competition from parties that are not currently in parliament. For example, the nationalist Svoboda, which lost the 2014 parliamentary elections, has secured representation in the west and centre of the country, including Kyiv. Candidates from the newly established Ukrainian Association of Patriots (Ukrop), sponsored by oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, were elected in various regions of Ukraine, including in his home city Dnipropetrovsk. Local or regional parties led by popular mayors won in a number of Ukrainian cities (Kharkiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Vinnytsia, Сherkasy to name a few).
These elections have exposed a disconnect between national and local politics, with the latter no longer simply reflecting the predominant political divide between government and opposition in parliament. In some regions and cities, the parties from the ruling parliamentary coalition may find themselves on opposite sides (for example, in Kyiv). In other regions, small parties led by popular mayors become pivots of local politics (for example, in Kharkiv or Odesa). Thus, Ukraine’s local politics will likely be increasingly embedded in the local and regional contexts rather than mirroring the national political landscape.
The majority of local and regional councils will require coalition governments. This is an important change, especially in the east and the south of the country, where the PoR has dominated local politics for over a decade. The new, more pluralistic political landscape there may also offer an opportunity for improving the quality of regional governance.
The regionalisation of politics is also evidence of the weakening power of the central government. Some of the winners of the 2014 parliamentary elections are among the losers of the 2015 local elections. The National Front led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk, which won 22 per cent of the votes in October 2014, did not participate in the local elections as polls indicated that its support had dropped to one per cent. Candidates and party lists from the Poroshenko Bloc came first in many regions of Ukraine, but did not repeat the electoral success of 2014. Given the population’s disappointment with their rulers, as the reform process stalls and corruption continues to flourish, such an electoral upset was predictable.
In contrast, Ukrainian oligarchs secured their grip on power over local politics in various parts of the country. Rinat Akhmetov, who controls major enterprises and media outlets in the east, preserves his influence in this part of the country through the Opposition Bloc and loyal mayors. Relying upon vast campaign resources and a TV channel, Ihor Kolomoyskyi succeeded in garnering support for Ukrop far beyond his home city of Dnipropetrovsk. He is also believed to support the Revival Party, which won in Kharkiv.
On balance, the local elections bring about a more diverse and fragmented political landscape while confirming the influence of oligarchs on local politics. The regionalisation of Ukrainian politics also implies that there will be strong bottom-up support for the continuation of decentralisation reforms, as the newly elected power-holders will strive for greater autonomy from the centre.
Natalia Shapovalova is researcher at FRIDE
On October 27th, IPI together with the International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN) cohosted a women, peace, and security event focusing on the effective inclusion of women peacebuilders in mediation efforts.
Click here to view the event video on YouTube>>
Entrenched conflicts around the world demonstrate that traditional approaches to peace negotiations are not working. Today’s conflicts tend to involve numerous nonstate actors and play out at local, national, and transnational levels. Many civilians are affected by violence, displacement, and lack of economic opportunity; meanwhile, too many traditional mediation efforts fail. A growing body of research shows that the inclusion of a range of actors—especially pro-peace and nonviolent women’s groups—can generate political will and increase the chance of reaching a sustainable agreement. While inclusivity is not a panacea, its positive impact is evident in numerous peace processes.
ICAN presented the Better Peace Tool, the culmination of an extended consultative process with a full range of stakeholders active in peace mediation. A panel of mediators and mediation advisers reflected on this approach, discussing practical tools to overcome obstacles to inclusivity as they arise in practice. They also considered the negative outcomes for peace when exclusion wins the day—drawing on their experiences in Mali, Sudan, Syria, and elsewhere.
Speakers:
Sanam Naraghi Anderlini, Co-Founder, International Civil Society Action Network (ICAN) & Member of the UN Standby Team of Senior Mediation Advisers (2011-2012)
Mobina Jaffer, Canadian Senator & Former Canadian Special Envoy to the Peace Process in Sudan
Arthur Boutellis, Director of the Center for Peace Operations, International Peace Institute
Tom Crick, Associate Director of the Conflict Resolution Program, The Carter Center
Visaka Dharmadasa, Founder and Chair of the Association of War Affected Women, Sri Lanka
Opening Remarks:
H.E. Geir O. Pedersen, Permanent Representative of Norway to the United Nations
Moderator:
Andrea Ó Súilleabháin, Senior Policy Analyst, International Peace Institute
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A policy forum was held at IPI on October 27th on humanitarian assistance in times of conflict. Dr. Abdullah Al Rabeeah, Supervisor General for the King Salman Humanitarian and Relief Center, briefed the audience on the work of the center in providing relief aid to Yemen and the region.
The center was founded in May 2015 with the mission of managing and coordinating Saudi Arabia’s external humanitarian relief and development assistance.
“The food security program has been the most active with the health program,” Dr. Rabeeah said. “We’ve been delivering aid within Yemen, in the borders, and those in need in Djibouti.”
“Our center is impartial. We’ve not been involved in the politics or military actions,” he noted. “We have moved our help to cities irrespective of who controls those cities… In five months, our center has been able to provide thirteen food programs, reaching more than five million beneficiaries.”
Moderating the event was Hardeep Singh Puri, Vice President of IPI, who shared with the audience the four guiding principles of humanitarian action: humanity, which drives all humanitarian action to prevent and alleviate human suffering; neutrality, which requires humanitarian organizations to abstain from taking sides; impartiality, which guides humanitarian action to administer relief based on need without discrimination; and respect for independence.
“It is critical to understand and respect the work of NGOs in a conflict situation,” said Rabih Torbay, Senior Vice President of International Operations with the International Medical Corps. “As a non-governmental organization, we have to be impartial in our delivery of services. We cannot politicize who receives aid—everybody in need should receive aid.”
“The aid should be given based on need,” he added. “Not based on tribal, ethnic or religious affiliation, and we need to keep the humanity at the center of everything we do.”
Highlighting the difficulties of working in a conflict situation, Amir Mahmoud Abdulla, Deputy Executive Director of the World Food Programme, commended the work of humanitarian workers on the ground.
“Our colleagues on the ground in Yemen deserve a huge amount of respect and gratitude. We all have to acknowledge that they put themselves in harm’s way to deliver [the aid] and the need for ensuring their protection must be paramount,” he said.
Watch event:
Idén decemberig 200 milliárd forintnyi uniós fejlesztési forrás nyílik meg szociális, társadalmi-felzárkózási, család- és ifjúságügyi, köznevelési, felsőoktatási, egészségügyi és egyházi területen - jelentette be az emberi erőforrások minisztere kedden sajtótájékoztatón, a Nyíregyházi Főiskolán.