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A young girl trying to cross a flooded road in Bangladesh following the wake of Cyclone Remal. Bangladesh is one of the world’s most climate-sensitive nations and is expected to be significantly impacted by rising global temperatures. Credit: UNICEF/Farhana Satu

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, surpassing 2023. This can be attributed to heightened reliance on fossil fuels and the reluctance of industries worldwide to pivot to green energy practices. The rapid acceleration of global temperatures has alarmed scientists, with many expressing concern over the environmental, economic, and social implications of the worsening climate crisis.

In light of this fact, ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked: “Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price.”

In addition to being the hottest year, 2024 is also the first year in recorded history to have an average temperature of over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. According to data from the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average temperature for 2024 is expected to be 1.60 C, marking a significant jump from last year’s average of 1.48 C.

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that has been signed by 196 countries at the UN. The objective of this agreement is to reduce carbon emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and mitigate the climate crisis. Samantha Burgess, the deputy-director of C3S) confirmed that the rising temperatures do not make the Paris Agreement implausible but rather, makes the climate crisis much more urgent of an issue.

According to Oxford Net Zero, a platform of researchers hosted by the University of Oxford, in order to have a reasonable chance of bringing global temperatures back to 1.5 C, fossil fuel emissions must fall by 43 percent. Major corporations and governments around the world have announced plans to reduce carbon emissions to achieve these goals.

Although industries around the world have slowly begun to adopt healthier fossil fuel consumption habits and alternative sources of energy, global consumption of coal has nearly doubled in the past three decades. On December 18, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a comprehensive report titled Coal 2024, that analyzed global consumption of coal in the 2020s and provided a forecast of coal use for the next three years.

The report states that in 2023, the global coal demand reached a record 8,687 metric tons, marking a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase. The global demand for coal is expected to have grown by 1 percent in 2024. The increased demand for coal can be attributed to the relatively low supply of hydropower.

China is ranked as the world’s biggest consumer of coal, accounting for up to 56 percent of 2023’s global coal consumption, equivalent to 4,833 metric tons of coal. It is estimated that in 2024, Chinese coal consumption has increased by 1.1 percent, or an additional 56 metric tons.

Approximately 63 percent of China’s coal consumption is used to fuel the nation’s power sector. Despite a measured global increase in renewable energy use, China’s generation of electricity has declined in recent years.

According to the IEA, fixing the world’s over-reliance on coal consumption begins with China. “Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

Scientists and economists have predicted that the acceleration of the climate crisis will have severe environmental and economic impacts going forward. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, increased temperatures could cost the global economy approximately 38 trillion dollars in damages. Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at the institute, states that much of these losses can be attributed to decreased agricultural yields and labor productivity, as well as damage to climate-sensitive infrastructures.

2024 has seen a host of climate-driven natural disasters that have devastated communities. Extreme weather, such as cyclones, monsoons, wildfires, heatwaves, hurricanes, and rising sea levels, continue to endanger the lives of millions of people. According to estimates from the UN, approximately 305 million people around the world will be in dire need of humanitarian assistance for support due to worsening natural disasters.

Other environmental impacts of climate change include deforestation, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, water cycle disruptions, and impacts on agricultural outputs, all of which have disastrous consequences for life on Earth. If global temperatures and carbon emissions are not reduced by 2030, these consequences could significantly increase in severity.

Scientists have warned that it is critical for global temperatures to not exceed 2 C. The world would experience widespread species loss, including several species critical for the sustenance of human life, including fish and many species of plants. Alice C. Hill, a Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) senior fellow for energy and the environment, stated, “We’re headed toward disaster if we can’t get our warming in check and we need to do this very quickly.”

Another climate researcher at Potsdam, Anders Levermann, predicts that economic and environmental impacts will be far more severe for developing countries than for major commercial powerhouses such as the United States and China. “We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer,” said Levermann.

Furthermore, the countries that are the least responsible for climate change (developing nations) are expected to suffer the greatest economic and environmental impacts as they have the fewest resources “to adapt to its impacts.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Yasmine Sherif with children at a school in Ethiopia

By Yasmine Sherif
NEW YORK, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As 2024 comes to a close, I dare to say that this has been an especially gruesome year for millions upon millions of young children, their parents and their teachers. The world has witnessed one horrific crisis of cruelty, dispossession and human suffering after another.

Ukraine has entered its worst winter, suffering a brutal war with 65% of its energy supplies destroyed. While the West Bank is increasingly under attack, Gaza is still under bombardment, 1 million Palestinians lack shelter in the cold and, as the Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator for OCHA, Tom Fletcher, stated, “Gaza is apocalyptic right now.”

Meanwhile, the gruesome internal armed conflict in Sudan rages on, having caused over 11 million internally displaced and over 3 million refugees in neighboring countries. Each carries the yoke of profound human suffering. From Lebanon, Yemen and the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to the Sahel and across sub-Saharan Africa, millions of children have very little hope left for a future.

Girls in Afghanistan beyond grade 6 remain shackled to their homes, banned from continuing their learning. Countless children have to live with the life-long consequences of surviving rape and brutal sexual violence – sometimes as mere babies – in armed conflicts in the DRC, North-East Nigeria and beyond. In the Sahel, children have to flee their villages on fire with nothing more than their last piece of cloth on their frail bodies. In Latin America, Venezuelan refugee children continue to struggle in exile, facing dangers in every corner, from trafficking and gangs, to missing out on the opportunity of an education and a future.

These are real examples of some of the 44 countries and contexts in which ECW invests financial resources towards a holistic quality education, safe learning environments and school meals.

The question is: are we all doing enough?

As many will know, Education Cannot Wait is a global platform in the UN system, hosted by UNICEF. It is made up of our High-Level Steering Group, our Executive Committee and our Secretariat, along with strategic public and private donor partners, Ministers of Education and numerous admirable and hard-working UN and civil society partners, as well as communities.

ECW is able to deliver with speed because it is a catalyst that brings together partners who operate with the same level of commitment, energy and determination. We are also able to deliver with depth and quality because we share the same vision of a child-centered approach and learning outcomes.

In the midst of this very dark year, Education Cannot Wat delivered on its mission, making more than US$228 million in investments, including US$44 million in First Emergency Responses, US$176 million in Multi-Year Resilience Programmes and US$8 million in Acceleration Facility grants – the latter for piloting innovative approaches.

Our funding gap was further closed as we reached nearly US$1 billion in financial resources for our 2023-2026 Strategic Plan. But more resources are urgently needed if we are to cater to the actual needs and reach, at minimum, 20 million children (pre-school, primary and secondary) and their teachers by the end of this strategic period.

With an additional US$570 million, we can completely close this gap. It is possible. When annual military expenditures worldwide stand at US$2.4 trillion, there is no justification whatsoever to fail in investing a minimum of US$570 million for Education Cannot Wait to support lifesaving and life-sustaining education for children enduring the brunt of man-made and climate crises; as well as to invest substantive financial resources to our sister-funds, such as the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) and the International Finance Facility for Education (IFFEd).

As our ongoing analysis and research at Education Cannot Wait indicates, the number of children in emergencies and protracted crises – who are denied or deprived an education – is getting closer to a quarter of a billion children and adolescents. We can prevent this.

While we are all trying to do something, we can and must do so much more. It is possible.

This leads me to the founder and outgoing High-Level Steering Group Chair of Education Cannot Wait, The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown, the UN Special Envoy for Global Education. He had a vision that led to the creation of Education Cannot Wait. Joined by strategic partners in governments, the UN and civil society, he pulled through its establishment at the World Humanitarian Summit.

In just a few years, this vision has turned into over 11 million children, adolescents and teachers benefitting from a quality education in the harshest circumstances around the globe.

In the immortal words of Viktor Frankl: “The world is in a bad state, but everything will become still worse unless each of us does his [and her] best.”

The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown did his best and has made an incredible difference transforming millions of lives and generations to come.

Let his legacy inspire us all.

With this, on behalf of the whole Education Cannot Wait family, I wish you Happy Holidays. May 2025 be a brighter year.

Yasmine Sherif is Executive Director of Education Cannot Wait

IPS UN Bureau

 

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The IOM estimates that one billion people live without legal identity, limiting their access to vital services and restricting their mobility. Credit: Shutterstock

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Perhaps demographers would consider designing a new classification system to separate from their estimates of the world’s total population –eight billion plus– the billion humans who live without legal identity and, thus, are deprived from the most basic rights.

The one billion figure seems to fall short if you consider that there are at least 150 million unregistered births.

 

The Facts

The United Nations specialised body: the International Organization for Migration (IOM) informs that “one in eight people in the world do not have legal identity and cannot have access to services.”

Today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration
Jens Godtfredsen

Specifically, the IOM reveals that “an estimated one billion people are living without legal identity and remain invisible to states, limiting their access to services and restricting their mobility, pushing them to undertake longer, more perilous, irregular routes.”

In view of this finding, the IOM brought together government representatives from Europe, Africa, Middle East and Central America for the Legal Identity and Rights-Based Return Management Conference at the UN City in Copenhagen.

The conference, held at the end of last October, convened government officials from countries of origin and destination and served to promote cross-regional exchanges on legal identity as a core enabler of safer and regular migration.

 

No Human Rights for Them

On this, Jens Godtfredsen, Ambassador for Migration, Return and Readmission at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, said during the conference that “today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration.”

That’s why it’s critical to come together to discuss concrete solutions to migration challenges, such as the global identity gap, by adopting a whole of government approach, stressed the Danish Government’s representative.

During this international conference, the Governments recognised that readmission processes for migrants are often “hindered by obstacles that can be eliminated or reduced by strengthening a state’s legal identity capacity, consular support, and collaboration among relevant government agencies.”

 

A Persistent Crisis

Despite these discussions, the grim reality persists. Rather, it is one continuous rise if you take the other dramatic fate of the millions of babies and children that are also ‘inexistente’

A 10 December 2024 report from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reveals significant progress in ending the problem of the “invisible” millions of babies each year who go unregistered.

Nearly eight in 10 children under five were successfully registered at birth in the last five years.

However, the report, The Right Start in Life: Global Levels and Trends in Birth Registration, also highlights a troubling reality: 150 million children under five still go unregistered, meaning they don’t officially exist as far as government systems.

According to UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, it is crucial that we provide “stronger efforts to ensure that every child, everywhere, is registered at birth.”

 

Beyond Formality: Why Birth Registration Matters

Birth registration is more than a legal formality – it is the gateway to rights and protections. It ensures a child’s legal identity, prevents statelessness, and facilitates access to essential services like healthcare, education, and social protection.

“Yet over 50 million children with registered births still lack birth certificates, a critical document for proving registration and securing nationality.”

 

Africa leads the disparities

Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and Central and Southern Asia lead the way with less than 30 percent of unregistered births.

Lagging is Sub-Saharan Africa home to half of the world’s unregistered children.

Within this region, the disparities are stark: Southern Africa reaches 88 per cent of registrations while Eastern and Middle Africa remain behind at just 41 per cent.

“Rapid population growth in the region will exacerbate the challenge, with projections suggesting over 100 million unregistered children by 2030 if current trends persist.”

 

Barriers to Registration

Families face numerous barriers to registration, UNICEF explains.

They often mention long distances and multiple visits to registration facilities, a lack of awareness about the process and discrimination based on gender, ethnicity, or religion. High costs also cause recurrent issues.

 

Stateless and Displaced: The Unseen Millions

Add to all the above, the millions of statelessness who are forced to flee to nowhere as a consequence of the ongoing armed conflicts taking place in some of the most impoverished countries as it is the case of DR. Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Yemen, Haiti, Central America…

Let alone Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.

Please do not forget the millions of victims of the climate carnage who are forced to be displaced across borders they most probably know nothing about, and as such pariahs are not formally recognised by states.

Still talking about human rights, democracy, equality…?

Maria Aparecida dos Anjos points to where the stream, now reduced to a trickle of water, reaches when flooded in the community of Santa Helena do Inglês, one of the riverside towns along the Rio Negro, a large tributary of the Amazon, in Brazil

By Mario Osava
MANAUS, Brazil, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The flow of the igarapé always dropped for three months every year, but now it has been dry for two years in a row, complains Maria Aparecida dos Anjos, looking at the trickle of water that when flooded reaches the stilts of her wooden house, 50 metres away and on a slope of more than 10 metres high.

The stream, known as igarapé to the riverside dwellers, flows into the Negro river, the great northern tributary of the Amazon, whose flow has dropped by more than 15 metres compared to the rainy season, affecting the essential river transport and the fish-based diet of the local population.

The unprecedented drought temporarily interrupted the growing bonanza of the 30 families of the Santa Helena do Inglês community since they received electricity from the government’s Light for All programme in 2012, reinforced in 2020 by solar energy provided by the non-governmental  Sustainable Amazon Foundation (FAS).“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn't work”: Nelson Brito de Mendonça.

The Vista Rio Negro community lodge, with eight rooms, has had to suspend its activities since August this year because of the drought. Ecotourism is an important source of income for the community near Anavilhanas, an attractive river archipelago.

Half of the lodge’s income is share among the community, while the rest goes to salaries, expenses and maintenance.

The guests would spread the word on “the suffering to get to the lodge”, having to walk hundreds of metres on uneven ground and mud, given the distance from the riverbank, and “no one would come anymore”, explained Nelson Brito de Mendonça, 48 and president of the community for the last 22 years, when IPS visited the place.

Berth at the Santa Helena do Inglês lodge, where the Negro River flows during the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Communities only accessible by river

Santa Helena is only accessible by river. It takes an hour and a half by speedboat to travel the 64-kilometre distance between the community and Manaus, the Amazonian capital of 2.2 million people. The “Englishman’s” addition comes from a British couple who lived there in the past.

“The inn used to receive occasional guests during the dry period, but it only closed completely in 2023 and 2004,” the two years of severe drought, said Keith-Ivan Oliveira, 54 and manager of the establishment, located at the entrance to the community, with a berth where the water comes in, but now hundreds of metres from the river.

He hopes to reopen the inn in January. For that “the water has to rise a lot, otherwise the big boats can’t reach it,” because of the risk of getting stuck on the sandbanks, he said.

Ecotourism, also practised by several local families in their small individual dwellings, was only made viable by electricity, especially from solar energy, which complemented the energy transmitted by cables, which was insufficient and frequently interrupted by trees blown down by rain and winds.

Air conditioning, indispensable for tourist comfort in the Amazonian heat, takes a lot of energy.

The Pousada Vista Rio de Negro, opened in 2014 as a source of income for the Santa Helena do Inglês community, home to 30 families of fisherpeople, cassava farmers and artisans in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

No power, no water, no food

“Other communities suffer water shortages, but we don’t because we have two sources of energy, the cable network and solar power. If there is no electricity, there is no water, which is then pumped,” Oliveira said.

Santa Helena uses water from an 86-metre deep well that reaches three elevated reservoirs in the highest part of the community. From there, the water drains by gravity to the consumption premises.

For Dos Anjos, who is 59 and heads a typical local family with eight children and six grandchildren, most of them living in Santa Helena, electricity means the comfort of having a refrigerator and not having to keep meat in salt, as well as fans to keep out the heat, television and other electrical appliances.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, 39, who also has eight children, benefits doubly. She is a cook at the inn, which earns her about 700 reais (US$120) a month when it is open, and she prepares ready-made food at home that she sells in the community. The refrigerator and electric oven are indispensable to her.

Keith-Ivan Oliveira, manager of the Pousada Vista Rio Negro, at the entrance of the ice factory under construction, which will have its own solar energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

She highlights the educational improvement for the children. “The school now has air conditioning, which is turned on when it is very hot, a benefit for everyone,” she said.

The electricity also favoured the internet connection that allows for virtual classes, which is necessary since the local school only covers the first five years of Brazilian primary education.

Elizabeth Ferreira da Silva, 16, a granddaughter of Dos Anjos, is completing her ninth and final year of primary school online. The knowledge she has accumulated on the web has facilitated the work she does with the inn’s communications, which is essential in attracting tourists from far away, including foreigners.

The community actually tried solar energy before, in 2011, but it was a very small plant that was soon rendered useless by lightning. Now it has a modern plant with 132 panels and 54 lithium batteries, installed by UCB Power, a company specialising in energy storage, which is sharing the project with FAS.

The solar panels of the plant that will supply the ice factory in the Amazonian community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. It will produce three tonnes per day. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Ice empowers fishing

In addition, Santa Helena already has another plant, with 84 panels, for the operation of an ice factory that is expected to be launched in a few months, with a capacity of three tonnes per day.

This is another project promoted by the FAS and vital to enhance the income of the Amazonian coastal villages, fisherpeople by nature.

“With our ice, we will no longer have to buy it in Manaus, to preserve the fish and sell it at a better price,” Mendonça celebrated. The inhabitants often lose their fish for lack of ice and “already had to give it for free to the trading companies,” he said.

“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn’t work,” he said, admitting that the ice factory only came about because the community managed to get help for the second solar plant.

The network of electricity distribution cables reached the Brazilian Amazonian community of Santa Helena in 2012, but with insufficient power and frequent interruptions. Solar plants installed later overcame the shortfall, but encourage activities that increase demand and require more energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

The river dwellers are gaining independence as fisherpeople and reducing their conservation and transport costs, which results in higher profits and better productivity and quality of the fish, Oliveira summarised.

This process points to the beginning of transformations in Santa Helena and the other 18 communities of the Rio Negro Sustainable Development Reserve (RDS), an environmental conservation area of 103,086 hectares in which its inhabitants remain, taking advantage of their natural resources but in a sustainable way.

The reserve was created in 2008 after eleven dwellers were arrested for illegal logging and sparked a movement for traditional peoples’ rights, sources of income and dignified livelihoods.

Negotiations with the Amazonas state authorities in the capital Manaus resulted in the creation of the RDS. As a result, the inhabitants of the reserve gained the exclusive right to fish in the local section of the Negro River and the departure of the companies that carried out industrial and predatory fishing.

The riverside dwellers became fisherpeople on a commercial scale and today have 13 boats, almost all of them with a capacity of five tons of fish. The ice factory has taken activity to a new level, even if the drought temporarily threatens the activity.

Timber extraction is limited to personal use and sustainably managed forests. Fishing, ecotourism and the cultivation of cassava (manioc), from which flour is made in the various “flour houses”, are the main sources of income.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, the inn’s cook, also produces meals for sale at her home, an activity that requires sufficient energy for her refrigerators and electric oven, in the small community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in Brazil’s northeastern Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

An example

This is a model to be replicated in the many Amazonian riverside communities, according to Valcleia dos Santos Lima, manager of sustainable community development at FAS.

The community of Bauana, in the municipality of Carauari, in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon, has already installed a plant with 80 photovoltaic panels and 32 batteries. In this case, the idea was to launch “a productive chain of factories that benefit from andiroba and murumuru oil,” this graduate in public policy management told IPS.

These are two Amazonian species, respectively a tree and a palm tree (Carapa guianensis and astrocaryum murumuru) whose fruits produce oils for medicinal and cosmetic use.

Energy is key for Amazonians to thrive, to add value to bio-economy products and to promote community-based tourism. In addition, almost one million inhabitants of the Amazon do not have electricity and 313 of the 582 communities in which the FAS operates only have it for four hours a day, Lima recalled.

“In this context, it is important that renewable energy can meet social demands as well as the demands of the economy and employment,” she concluded.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres briefs reporters on the situation in Syria. Credit: UN Photo/Eskinder-Debebe

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

In overthrowing Bashar al-Assad and his regime, Syria reaches the process of re-affirming its sovereignty, a process that the United Nations chief asserts must be led by the Syrian people.

On Thursday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke to reporters outside the Security Council, where he affirmed the UN’s commitment to support Syria during this period of transition. Under the caretaker government, the political process should follow the principles outlined in Security Council resolution 2254, which provides a roadmap for this transition and calls for a ceasefire, the establishment of non-sectarian governance, and free and fair elections to be held within 18 months.

“All communities must be fully integrated into the new Syria,” said Guterres.

The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, was in Damascus meeting with the leaders of the factions in Syria, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), where he observed that there was “a lot of hope” among civilians for “the beginning of a new Syria.”

“A new Syria that, in line with Security Council resolution 2254, will adopt a new constitution that will ensure that there is a social contract, a new social contract for all Syrians,” said Pederson.

Pressing issues remain that require urgent action. One such issue is the high number of missing persons in Syria. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Syria reported registering over 35,000 missing persons cases, with the caveat that this number is likely much higher.

In light of this, the UN General Assembly created the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in Syria. Since its conception in June 2023, this office has been investigating the whereabouts and fates of missing persons in the country and to provide support to their family members.

UN Spokesperson for the Secretary General, Stéphane Dujarric, remarked that the issue of missing persons has been a part of the ongoing dialogue with the caretaker government. “It is such an emotional issue. Such a human issue that it should be at the forefront of everyone’s work,” said Dujarric.

Guterres announced on Thursday that Karla Quintana would be heading the institution, remarking that she and her team must be allowed to carry out their mandate. A human rights expert and legal scholar, Quintana was previously the National Commissioner for the Search of Missing Persons in Mexico from 2019 to 2023. During her tenure, she oversaw over 100,000 cases of disappearances and 70,000 unidentified bodies. She is expected to join the institution soon in Geneva, where their office is based.

The humanitarian response in Syria will also adapt during the “still rapidly shifting” conditions in the wake of the regime change. The UN and its partners have begun the rehabilitation of certain key facilities, such as hospitals and roads, in the more stable areas. Still, over 16 million people require humanitarian support. Even as humanitarian actors respond to pressing needs, issues emerge that present challenges to long-term stability. According to Dujarric, more than 1.3 million people have received food assistance since November 27. Yet, the “rapid devaluation” of Syrian currency has been impacting the availability of food.

“We need immediate humanitarian assistance, but we also need to make sure that Syria can be rebuilt, that we can see economic recovery and that we can hopefully see the beginning where we start the process to end sanctions,” said Pederson.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has called for donors to increase their funding for the humanitarian and recovery response plan. The Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria in 2024 called for USD 4.07 billion in funding, yet this has only been funded at 32 percent. The humanitarian plan for 2025 has yet to be announced.

There are also reports of hostilities in the northeast, even as the security situation is stabilizing in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo. Guterres remarked that ISIL continues to be a present threat in the country and that Israeli airstrikes have been recurring in the weeks since Assad’s departure. These attacks violate Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they must come to an immediate end, he warned.

“This is a decisive moment—a moment of hope and history, but also one of great uncertainty,” he said. “Some will try to exploit the situation for their own narrow ends. But it is the obligation of the international community to stand with the people of Syria who have suffered so much.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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A piece from Emo de Medeiros’s series Vodunaut in the “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” exhibit in La Conciergerie in Paris, France. The smartphones within the cowry shell-decorated helmets feature videos taken on four different continents. Credit: Megan Fahrney/IPS

By Megan Fahrney
COTONOU, Benin, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Construction of the new Museum of Modern Art is underway in Cotonou, Benin’s largest city. The museum, along with three others being built throughout the country, are part of the Beninese government’s extensive plan to ramp up the nation’s tourism industry and preserve its culture. It is expected to open at the end of 2026.

A traveling exhibition entitled “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” serves as the precursor to the new modern art museum. Originally, the exhibition launched in Cotonou in 2022 under the name “Art of Benin From Yesterday and Today: From Restitution to Revelation.” It then traveled to Morocco, Martinique, and it is now in Paris.

At the heart of the initiatives is the repatriation of 26 pieces of stolen art to Benin from France in 2021. The returned royal artefacts were showcased alongside the contemporary art in the original exhibition in Cotonou, and they have remained in the nation’s reserves since.

The exhibition brings together over one hundred pieces of art by 42 artists from Benin and the Beninese diaspora.

Yassine Lassissi, director of visual arts at the Agency for the Development of the Arts and Culture (ADAC), said the exhibit unites works from both distinguished, well-known Beninese artists and emerging young creators.

The featured pieces represent a range of different forms and artistic mediums, Lassissi said.

“There is really a diversity of techniques,” said Lassissi. “We have paintings, sculptures, installations, multimedia techniques, drawings, and photography.”

Artist Emo de Medeiros showcases two works in the exhibition: a series of fixtures entitled Vodunaut and a short film by the name “Tigritude I.”

De Medeiros said “Tigritude I” was inspired by a quote by Nigerian activist and author Wole Soyinka, who said, “A tiger doesn’t proclaim his tigritude, he pounces.” De Medeiros explores the role of the African diaspora in uniting technology and spirituality through the piece.

“It features an alternative past,” said de Medeiros. “An alternative futurism that is very dystopic with the intervention of futuristic tigers.”

Upon the return of the exhibition to Cotonou from Paris this January, Lassissi said she hopes the artwork can continue to travel to new destinations until the opening of the museum in 2026, including potentially to the United States.

While in Cotonou, the exhibition drew more than 220,000 visitors in just sixty days of opening.

“It was really a historic event,” Lassissi said.

In addition to the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou, Benin is constructing the International Museum of Memory and Slavery in Ouidah, the Museum of the Epic of the Amazons and Kings of Dahomey in Abomey, and the International Museum of Arts and Civilizations of Vodun in Porto-Novo.

The majority of contemporary art pieces from the traveling exhibition will be housed in the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou. The 26 returned royal artefacts will be displayed in the new museum in Abomey.

The government plans to situate the Museum of Modern Art within an entirely new Cultural and Creative Neighborhood, which would also consist of the Franco-Beninese Institute, coworking spaces, the Art Gallery, the artisanal village, and artists’ residences.

The nation hopes the museums will strengthen its culture and tourism industry, which it projects to be the second pillar of its economy after agriculture.

De Medeiros said he believes Cotonou had been “sorely missing” a contemporary art museum.

“This was something that was necessary,” said de Medeiros. “I think this definitely should be a platform [where] Beninese artists can showcase their work to the world.”

Note: Megan Fahrney is a U.S. Fulbright fellow. The views expressed are solely the author’s and do not represent the views of the United States government.

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Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. Credit: UNDP

By Javier Bronfman
SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As many middle-income countries in the world, Chile finds itself at a critical juncture. The country has made significant progress over the past decades in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction, yet many structural challenges remain.

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report highlights some of the most pressing issues facing the country today, answering a fundamental question: Why is it so hard to change? At the core of this question are institutional, cultural, and socio-economic factors that have made meaningful reforms difficult to implement.

Below, some important insights coming out of the report.

Institutional Difficulties

Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. The report emphasizes how the institutional structure of the country, and especially how the political parties and electoral system fosters a culture of revenge that promoted a constant blocking of the needed legislation and reforms.

Chile’s political system, characterized by a multi-party system with highly polarized factions, has increasing struggles to find common ground and reach agreements. Legislative deadlock arises when parties fail to collaborate, leading to stalled policies.

This institutional impasse is exacerbated by the requirement for supermajorities to pass key reforms, especially constitutional amendments, making it extremely challenging to address deep-rooted issues education, pension reform, or healthcare access.

Even though there is agreement on what reforms are needed, we observe a prevailing culture of revenge that ends up blocking most policy reform effort. Political discourse has become increasingly adversarial, making cooperation across political divides nearly impossible.

Instead of focusing on policy issues, political energy is often spent on character attacks and undermining the opposition. As a result, the public grows increasingly cynical, and trust in the political process erodes.

The inability to foster a culture of dialogue and mutual respect between political actors prevents any meaningful long-term change. Politicians are locked into short-term battles that perpetuate a cycle of revenge, further polarizing society and making structural reforms even harder to achieve, while people wait for things to change.

Difficulties in reconciling growth and inequality: a lack of Future Perspectives

The report also identifies a growing crisis of the future, a deep sense among many Chileans, particularly the youth, that the future is uncertain and precarious.

This “crisis of the future” is characterized by a lack of clear opportunities for advancement, whether in terms of social mobility, career prospects, or general quality of life.

In a society where inequality persists, many young people feel that the traditional paths to success, such as education and employment, no longer guarantee a better future. The rising cost of living, combined with the difficulty of finding secure, well-paying jobs, contributes to a sense of hopelessness.

This crisis is not just economic; it is also emotional and psychological, as more Chileans feel disconnected from the idea of progress and personal development.

This feeling of a “lost future” is also compounded by the existential threat of climate change, which is hitting Chile particularly hard. From severe droughts to devastating wildfires, the environmental crises further erode any sense of stability, reinforcing the feeling that the future is uncertain and full of risk.

A path forward

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report offers a sobering analysis of why change is so hard in Chile today. Institutional blockages, a culture of retaliation in politics, social inequality, and a pervasive crisis of future perspectives all converge to create a challenging landscape for reform.

Yet, despite these difficulties, the report also points to the potential for new paths forward. Building a more inclusive, forward-looking society requires a shift in political culture, one, as well as economic models that prioritize equality and sustainability.

The challenges are daunting, but they are not insurmountable. By fostering greater political cooperation, addressing institutional inefficiencies, and creating a shared vision of a more equitable future, Chile has the opportunity to break through these barriers.

This will only be possible if the current political and electoral system are reformed towards one that fosters dialogue and long-term compromises. Fortunately, most political sectors agree on those needed reforms, will they be able to come to a national agreement, remains to be seen.

Javier Bronfman is Regional Adviser on SDG Integration

Source: UNDP

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Credit: Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNOHCR)

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The United States, long described as a country built largely by immigrants, is planning to clamp down on migrants, refugees and asylum seekers entering the country—which averaged about 2.4 million in 2022-2023, according to the US Congressional Budget Office.

The incoming Trump administration is calling for “mass deportations” of mostly illegal aliens and undocumented workers.

As he plans to continue his hardline on migration policies, President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office a second time beginning January 20, has also pledged to end birthright citizenship for children born in the United States—which is guaranteed by the 14th amendment of the US constitution.

Trump has also warned Canada and Mexico that he will penalize both countries by imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods– unless they restrict the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs into the US.

During his last presidency (2017-2021), Trump triggered a global backlash when he singled out both Haiti and African nations as “shithole countries” eliciting protests from the 55-member African Union (AU). Trump also came under fire for his insulting statements that “all Haitians have AIDS” and Nigerians who visit the US “would never go back to their huts.”

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the good news is the toppling of the authoritarian Bashar administration in Syria. But the bad news is that millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey (estimated at more than three million) may be forced to return to Syria. So will Syrian refugees in Germany.

In a report December 14, the New York Times said no other European nation has welcomed as many Syrian refugees as Germany.

While more than 100,000 are now German citizens, the influx is blamed for helping to fuel the rise of the xenophobic far-right political party, Alternative for Germany, which routinely denigrates single young men from Syria and Afghanistan, the Times said.

The rising number of refugees and asylum seekers in the US have been triggered by a surge in political violence and authoritarianism in Venezuela and gang violence in Haiti.

Joseph Chamie, a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division, told IPS the world is in the midst of the Great Migration Clash, which is a bitter struggle between those who “want out” of their countries and those who want others to “keep out” of their countries.

More than a billion people would like to move permanently to another country and no less than a billion people say fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move into their countries, he pointed out.

“Powerful forces, including demographics, climate change, poverty, hunger, violence and armed conflict, are continuing to fuel the worldwide migration struggle. The supply of potential migrants in developing countries greatly exceeds the demand for migrants in developed countries”.

Increasing numbers of men, women and children who want out of their countries are resorting to irregular migration with many upon arrival claiming asylum, he said.

“The populations with the largest percentages wanting to emigrate are generally found in poor and violence ridden countries. In many of those nations, half or more of the populations say they would like to migrate permanently to another country, typically to Europe and North America”, said Chamie, author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

According to Cable News Network (CNN) December 19, President-elect Donald Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan said plans are underway to deport undocumented immigrants on a large scale and that he’ll need funding from Congress to do so.

In a CNN interview, Homan said he will need a minimum of 100,000 beds to detain undocumented immigrants — more than doubling the 40,000 detention beds ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is currently funded for — and needs more ICE agents to carry out Trump’s mass deportation promises.

Homan also said the incoming administration plans to construct new deportation facilities in large metropolitan areas and bring back mass worksite immigration raids — a potentially significant development for some industries that rely on undocumented immigrants’ labor.

At a press conference outside the US Capitol last year, Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke (NY-09) joined New York City Public Advocate Jumaane D. Williams, members of New York’s Congressional delegation, and immigration activists, to call for federal action on an agenda to address the immediate asylum seeker crisis as well as reform immigration policy infrastructure for the long-term.

“We live in a country where everyone’s family has, at some point, chosen to come to these shores seeking freedom or a better life. That’s why we hear American politicians, and even Americans themselves, love to call themselves “a nation of immigrants”.

“It’s been nearly 250 years since the founding of our nation, and still, America has managed to maintain that self-image – whether through the forced migration of millions of African slaves, restrictive immigration laws based on unjust fears of “inferior” races, and nativist movements that encouraged immigrants to assimilate or leave”.

But the true reality of America’s immigrant heritage is much more complicated beyond myth, she said.

As a senior member of the House Homeland Security Committee, Co-Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Foreign Affairs and Immigration Task Force, and founding co-chair of the House Caribbean and House Haiti Caucuses, “I have seen the glaring inequities and civil rights violations plaguing our immigrants in this nation”.

“Let me be very clear: Our immigration system is broken, and I will not relent until our immigration system reflects a modern and equitable approach to this issue. The time has come for the values of our nation to be reflected in our immigration policies.”

“We need innovative policies and community support to reimagine the immigration system in a humane, just, and fair manner. I’m proud to stand here with my colleagues to demand additional federal aid to address the asylum seeker crisis.

“They came here fleeing everything from political and economic conflict to natural disasters and health crises. They came seeking a better life. They came and made this nation a better and more prosperous place. We are a nation of immigrants, founded by immigrants, so we must do better for our immigrants”, Clarke said.

In contrast to migrant-origin countries, Chamie said, life in the migrant-destination countries is a comparative dreamland, offering a wide array of opportunities, freedoms, rights, safeguards and security for migrants and their children.

The Great Migration Clash is complicated by the asymmetry of migration-related human rights. While everyone has the basic human right to leave their country and return, they do not have the right to enter another country, he pointed out.

Opposition to immigration is reflected in the rise of xenophobia, racism, hostility and violence toward immigrants. Far-right political leaders often depict migrants, refugees and asylum seekers as invaders, infiltrators, criminals, rapists and terrorists, and call for them to go home and to be deported.

The United Nations, the international agencies and governments, especially in destination countries, have been largely ineffective in addressing the Great Migration Clash, which is expected to continue throughout the 21st century, warned Chamie.

Speaking on International Migrants Day December 18, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “this is a day to remind ourselves of the challenges migrants can face — from prejudice and discrimination to outright violence and abuse, and the unimaginable cruelty of human trafficking”.

And, in a joint call to action, the UN Refugee Agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the UN Special Rapporteurs on Trafficking in Persons, alongside humanitarian organizations, called on States to protect refugees and migrants in distress-at-sea.

“The call is prompted by the rising casualties that we often talk about here. Each year, thousands of refugees and migrants risk deadly journeys in desperate attempts to escape violence, persecution, and poverty,” said Guterres.

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Credit: Masson/shutterstock.com

By Herbert Wulf
DUISBURG, Germany, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

Donald Trump, president-elect of the USA, wants to end the Ukraine war within a day, as he has emphasized several times, but without saying how. Despite the brutal clashes on the ground in Ukraine, do negotiations now have a chance? Are we near to a “ripe moment” for negotiations?

The war continues unabated. There is no end in sight. Can we hope that Donald Trump will find a personal connection to Vladimir Putin to end this war? The phone call on 15 November between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin – the first telephone contact in two years – was sobering because Putin only reaffirmed his already known positions: He is ready for negotiations, but only on his terms. In other words, recognition of the “new territorial realities” and “consideration of Russian security interests”. In concrete terms, this would mean the handover of the four regions in eastern Ukraine, parts of which are occupied by Russia, and Crimea. Scholz called for negotiations with the aim of a “just and lasting peace”, which is primarily aimed at the withdrawal of Russian troops.

The Russian attack and Ukrainian defence have turned into a war of exhaustion, with current military advantages for Russia. The Russian strategy can be described as an escalation with the hope of a military victory. So far, Ukraine and its supporters have reacted with intense resistance. Western support has escalated with the delivery of more effective weapons and belief that victory is still possible. But increasingly a certain fatigue can be felt among them and Trump has made it clear that the massive support will no longer come from the USA.

What is the consequence for the Ukraine war, and what is the alternative to this battle with more and more deaths? Negotiations now? Is there a chance for peace without military victory? But neither side is ready yet for serious negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky was not happy about Scholz’s initiative and spoke of a policy of appeasement, also because the call counteracts Putin’s international isolation.

The American political scientist William Zartman speaks of the necessary “ripeness” of a conflict as a prerequisite for the success of negotiations. The concept of “ripe moments” centres, according to Zartman, on the adversaries’ perceptions of “hurting stalemates”. The willingness to negotiate increases when both sides realize that a military victory is not possible and that the military potential, i.e. soldiers and weapons, is no longer sufficient. The depressing conclusion is that today, even after almost 1,000 days of war, this situation does not exist in Russia or Ukraine. But the increasing logistical bottlenecks on both sides, the irreplaceable, irrecoverable and permanent losses are perhaps an indication that the conflict is in a process of maturing for negotiations. Even Russia, with its present territorial advances, seems not able to replace its casualties. The arrival of about 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia raises the question of whether the Kremlin can make up for its enormous losses.

Different scenarios

Four scenarios are conceivable, all of which are far from an ideal solution.

First, it is not inconceivable that the war, which has now lasted almost three years, with all its destruction and loss of life, will continue for another few years without an end in sight.

Second, Donald Trump could actually strike a deal with Vladimir Putin, presumably at the expense of Ukraine. Trump believes in deals. Russia would receive the parts of Ukraine it occupies, a demilitarized zone would be established along this border within Ukraine, Ukraine would receive security guarantees (from NATO, the United Nations, or a grouping of neutral states), and a peace treaty would be postponed until later. And “later” could mean decades without a peace treaty.

Third, one side could win militarily. Unlikely, but not completely out of the question. The Kremlin firmly believes in this possibility and is assured by its territorial gains in recent weeks. At the same time, the Russian leadership underestimated Ukraine’s will to resist at the beginning of the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and then had to significantly limit its war goals, the overthrow of the government in Kyiv and the integration of Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

The fourth scenario, a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. There are a number of conflicts that are in this state of having no real solution. In recent years, the situation in Korea has been referred to several times in order to consider a similar solution to the Ukraine war. This scenario is perhaps the most likely.

Ceasefire and a frozen conflict: The Korean solution

Of course, every conflict is different, and the respective conditions also differ. Nevertheless, there might be both conflict patterns and patterns of conflict resolution that could provide clues to Ukraine’s future. Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the US, pointed out parallels to the Korean War in an op-ed in the New York Times after a year of the Ukraine war. More than 70 years ago, in July 1953, an armistice agreement and the establishment of a demilitarized zone led to the freezing of this war and the division of Korea into two separate states.

Recently, Joseph S. Nye, one of the most influential political scientists in the USA, pointed to a “Korean solution” in an article entitled “What Would Victory in Ukraine Look Like?”. He writes: “If Ukraine defines victory as the return of all land that Russia has occupied since 2014, victory is not in sight. But if it aims to maintain its independence as a prosperous democracy linked to Europe, while reserving its right to the ultimate return of its territory, victory remains possible.” The Korean War also swayed back and forth from 1950 to 1953. Like what is happening now in Ukraine, neither the north nor the south, nor their respective supporters, were prepared to end the war quickly because of hopes of a military victory. The Korean armistice agreement of July 1953 stipulated the status quo ante with the division of the country at the 38th parallel. Korea is still a divided country, and the conflict is a frozen one. A peace treaty was never concluded and the so-called demilitarized zone along the border between the two states is one of the most militarized borders in the world. A permanent ceasefire was reached without a peace agreement.

Proponents of a “Korean solution” point out that the destruction and loss of life has ended, and that South Korea has now become a resilient democracy and emerging economic power. Democratic development and integration in Western Europe could then follow in the same way in Ukraine.

Critics of such a solution describe the Korean ceasefire as a “non-solution”. The Swiss historian Roland Popp, who researches at the Military Academy of the University ETH Zurich, writes that this Korean solution “also covers four decades of one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world, massacres of tens of thousands of civilians … or the assassination of the president by the director of the South Korean CIA in 1979.” And he points to the immense costs and uncertainties for Western Europe.

In 1953, a Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission was set up in Korea. In the more than seven decades of the existence of the armistice agreement there have been numerous military skirmishes on the border. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a threat, just as the North calls the South Korean military with its ally the United States a threat. Precisely for this reason, is it remarkable that this agreement has prevented a new war with heavy losses for more than seven decades. The consequences of a Korean solution for the situation in Europe would probably also mean, as in the case of the Korean peninsula, arms races as during the early days of the Cold War

Neutral states could also play an important role in ending the Ukraine war: for example, India, South Africa, Brazil or Switzerland. If neither side makes significant gains in Ukraine, a ceasefire would not be impossible. Presumably, the Ukrainians would not regain all the territories occupied by Russia. Russia could interpret the abandonment of its actual goal as a partial victory in order to save face. The conflict would be frozen. Not a nice result, but still the end of the war. A frozen conflict is better than a hot war. But the history of frozen wars shows that they can turn into hot wars again at any time. In the case of Ukraine, the imposition of an unfair solution could possibly result in Ukrainian partisan resistance.

A possible fifth scenario, a peace agreement that is binding under international law, with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, currently seems to be completely out of the question.

Related articles by this author:
– Agonizing over Europe’s Defence: Some Narratives are Getting Ahead of the Facts
– Boots on the ground
– Ten Take-Aways on Russia’s War and Five Ideas for the Future of Ukraine and Beyond

Herbert Wulf is a Professor of International Relations and former Director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC). He is presently a Senior Fellow at BICC, an Adjunct Senior Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg/Essen, Germany, and a Research Affiliate at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago, New Zealand. He serves on the Scientific Council of SIPRI.

This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from the original with their permission.

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The United Nations Security Council met on December 17 to discuss Syria’s transitional period following the end of Assad’s regime. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad came about following a series of coordinated offensive missions spearheaded by the Syrian opposition which resulted in the seizure of the capital city Damascus. In the days following the fall of Assad’s government, the Syrian Civil War has reached a phase of heightened insecurity, plunging Syria into a state of nationwide insecurity.

On December 7, the Syrian opposition, also known as the Southern Operation Room , led by the Islamic political organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, coordinated an offensive mission in the Rif Dimashq region of Syria, resulting in the Syrian Arab Army withdrawing their forces from Damascus. This, coupled with a concurrent offensive mission, led by the opposition and the Syrian National Army, resulted in the rebels seizing control of Damascus and Homs, marking the end of Assad’s regime in Syria.

For approximately 53 years, the Assad clan has exercised authoritarian rule over Syria, with an extensively documented history of mass incarcerations, executions, and violations of international humanitarian law.

According to a press release from the International Committee of the Red Cross (IRC), during Assad’s 13 year rule over Syria, there have been 35,000 documented cases of enforced disappearances, with accurate numbers likely being far larger.

In a press release issued by Amnesty International, Secretary General Agnès Callamard emphasized the brutality of the Assad family’s rule, saying, “Under the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and before him his father Hafez al-Assad, Syrians have been subjected to a horrifying catalogue of human rights violations that caused untold human suffering on a vast scale. This included attacks with chemical weapons, barrel bombs, and other war crimes, as well as murder, torture, enforced disappearance and extermination that amount to crimes against humanity.”

Following Assad’s departure, thousands of Syrian civilians flooded the streets to celebrate. World leaders also expressed their satisfaction with the end of Assad’s regime. In a televised speech, U.S. president Joe Biden said “At long last, the Assad regime has fallen. This regime brutalized, tortured, and killed hundreds of thousands of innocent Syrians. The fall of the regime is a fundamental act of justice.”

“The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure. Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored,” said United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Other nations such as France, Canada, and Germany, have indicated relief after Assad’s fall.

The United Nations (UN) and the European Union (EU) have reported plans to further monitor the developing situation in Syria and facilitate a peaceful transition of power. “Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region. The process of rebuilding Syria will be long and complicated and all parties must be ready to engage constructively,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas in a social media statement posted to X (formerly known as Twitter). The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, called for urgent talks in Geneva to discuss measures that will be taken to achieve an “orderly political transition.”

Following Assad’s removal from office, the overall security situation in Syria has become increasingly volatile. According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), clashes between armed coalitions remain regular in Syria, particularly in Aleppo and Al-Raqqa. Since the escalation of hostilities in late November, an estimated 1.1 million people in Syria have been internally displaced, particularly in Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Homs.

According to a report from the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), civilian casualties in Syria have risen significantly since the escalation of hostilities, with hundreds having been killed or injured from November to December 8. North-west Syria has seen the most violence, with over 75 civilians having been killed, including 28 children and 11 women. At least 282 others have sustained critical injuries as well, including 106 children and 56 women.

Partners of the UN have discovered at least 52 minefields scattered across Syria in the first ten days of December. Syria’s healthcare system has seen considerable disruptions due to damage from warfare and looting. Hospitals have become overwhelmed due to the sheer influx of injured persons, with psychological distress and trauma being widespread, particularly in children. Movement restrictions and curfews have significantly hampered humanitarian missions.

Additionally, Israel has capitalized on the chaos in Syria, targeting the nation’s military assets. Syria has long been recognized as an ally of Iran, an enemy of Israel. On December 10, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) launched 480 airstrikes on military operations and equipment in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia and Palmyra.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee the security of Israel as well as to achieve a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria. Despite the absence of Irani forces in Syria, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that these attacks were to guarantee a “security zone free of heavy strategic weapons and terrorist infrastructures” in southern Syria.

Nadav Shoshani, a spokesperson for the IDF, denied reports that Israeli forces are to head toward Damascus, but confirmed that they were operating beyond the buffer zone in Syria. However, Shoshani stated that Israel will not interfere with the “internal events” occurring in Syria.

Political analysts have expressed concern for the future of the Middle East following the toppling of Assad’s regime. Marco Carnelos, the former Middle East peace process coordinator special envoy for Syria for the Italian government, described Assad’s ousting as “one of the biggest geopolitical tectonic shifts since the Sykes-Picot agreements in 1916 and the understandings reached at the end of the First World War,” adding that certain nations, such as Iraq and Algeria will have a mixed reaction, while others “will breathe a sigh of relief.”

Arab states, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), will be particularly sensitive to further developments in Syria that are motivated by civilian dissidence, fearing that Syria could inspire similar reactions in other Middle Eastern sovereignties.

Sarah Leah Whitson, the Executive Director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), informed reporters that Arab states will “make efforts to contain HTS and build alliances with an HTS-government primarily guided by the hope that what emerges will be friendly to them and their interests” in the wake of this major transitional period of Syrian history.

Barbara Slavin, a fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center and a lecturer in international affairs at George Washington University, states that the success of the Syrian opposition will likely “inspire jihadis in their own countries” to commit similar acts of rebellion and will also shine a light on the injustices committed by their governments.

The international community remains hopeful that the demise of Assad’s regime will bring forth an opportunity for positive development in Syria. Rima Farah, a lecturer at Northeastern University who studies the cultural and political history of the Middle East, opines that the end of Assad’s dictatorship provides the Syrian people with an indispensable opportunity to construct “a (democratic) state with a constitution that protects everyone.”

Political analysts have noted numerous parallels in the Syria situation and the protests that resulted in Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fleeing from Bangladesh to India. Both the Syria and Bangladesh situations were born of civilian discontent with their governments, resulting in protests and acts of rebellion, causing the incumbent leader to abandon their offices and flee to another country.

This is a testament to the importance of the civilian role in policy and decision-making processes. Furthermore, these two developments show that the government must be held accountable for measures that do not serve everyone equally.

Thameen Al-Kheetan, a spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), told our correspondent that accountability is crucial in rebuilding Syria after 14 years of political instability. “This moment carries great hope as much as it raises huge challenges and legitimate uncertainty for Syrians. Accountability is one of the most important issues. Any transitional justice initiative should be inclusive, involve victims and ensure accountability for all past violations and abuses, those committed by the previous government and by all other parties to the conflict. To that end, the current authorities should ensure the preservation of evidence and facilitate the work of our Office as well as international mechanisms,” said Al-Kheetan.

Special Envoy Pederson added that it is imperative for Israeli bombardment and clashes between armed groups in Syria to stop to achieve substantial progress. “There is a real opportunity for change, but this opportunity needs to be grasped by the Syrians themselves and supported by the UN and the international community,” Pederson said.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The port of Manzanillo, with the largest cargo movement in Mexico, is expanding its facilities without an environmental impact study. Credit: Colima Sostenible

By Emilio Godoy
MEXICO, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

The expansion of the port of Manzanillo, Mexico’s most important port in terms of cargo movement and located on the central Pacific coast, has major environmental impacts, as well as presenting climatic risks.

Work began on 23 November without the required environmental impact study, and includes the extension of the port, the construction of a gasoline storage terminal and a gas and steam power plant in the western state of Colima.“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”: Hugo Smith.

For independent expert Hugo Smith, the impact is “tremendous”, as the area hosts significant economic activity, such as agriculture, livestock, salt flats and artisanal fisheries.

“There is significant social damage that has never been resolved. For example, they dredged the lagoon to install the gas plant. When there is dredging, marine sediments are moved, more pollution is caused and when they mix, new pollutants are caused. The damage is irremediable”, he told IPS from the port city of Tampico, in the northeastern state of Tamaulipas.

The specialist stressed the lack of adequate planning, because “in other places they ask for climate forecasts, in this case there has to be very well-planned works, they have to be monitored. There is talk of sustainability as a political slogan, but there are no indicators.”

The expansion includes a storage and distribution facility of the state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) with a capacity for 3.7 million barrels of fuel, another maritime terminal with a capacity to move five million containers, and roadways.

The port site currently covers 437 hectares, housing 19 docks and warehouses.

With the work, due to be completed in 2030, the port area will be extended to 1,800 hectares in the second basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon. There are four regulating basins which capture the rain and separate the lagoon by roads and sluice gates.

With a public-private investment of US$3,480 million, the Mexican government is seeking to turn the port of the coastal city of Manzanillo into the largest in Latin America and the 15th largest globally, by doubling its total capacity.

The expansion is part of a scheme to modernise 10 Mexican federal ports.

The area of Manzanillo, a city in the western Mexican state of Colima, will be impacted in the long term by sea level rise, including the port area that is being expanded and is on the left side of the map depicted. Credit: Climate Central

Important habitat

President Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office on 1 October, has maintained the plans of her predecessor and political mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024), to revive old projects. The expansion of Manzanillo dates back to the Felipe Calderón administration (2006-2012) and López Obrador formally took it up again in 2019, but without advancing its development.

The city of Manzanillo, with 159,000 people and more than 800 kilometres west of Mexico City, is surrounded by the lagoons of Valle de las Garzas and Cuyutlán, which are vital to the area’s environment because of the animal and plant species they shelter.

The governmental National Commission for the Knowledge and Use of Biodiversity (Conabio) lists as ecosystem values the presence of salt cultivation, artisanal fishing, mangroves, native and migratory birds, as well as crocodiles and turtles, in the 7,200-hectare Cuyutlán lagoon, located parallel to the Pacific coast.

The ecosystem holds 90% of the wetlands in the state of Colima and is registered by Conabio as a priority marine and hydrological region.

In fact, in the last decade the agency warned that the port expansion could “potentially increase water levels and alter important habitats for nesting and feeding of organisms such as birds.”

The works will require, it said, “the opening of new channels of communication with the sea, as well as deeper navigation channels, which could provoke more severe changes in water levels and circulation.”

Hence the importance of the environmental impact assessment, in order to know the repercussions and the mitigation measures envisaged.

In 2017, then president Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018) issued a call for an environmental assessment, but it is ignored if it was carried out. In any case, the works were never undertaken.

Panoramic view of the Cuyutlán Lagoon, which has four basins. The expansion of the port of Manzanillo began in basin 2, with serious environmental impacts. Basins 3 and 4 are considered wetlands of international importance for their natural diversity. Credit: Conabio / Semar

Two lagoons in danger

The lagoon consists of four lagoon basins, the last two of which are adjacent to the area of the expansion.

These are sites of international importance since 2011 under the Convention on Wetlands, as they support vulnerable endangered species and threatened ecological communities; populations of plant and animal species important for maintaining the biological diversity of the region.

It is also home to some 20,000 waterfowl and migratory birds, as well as providing food for fish and a nesting ground for turtles.

To the north of the port is the 268-hectare Valle de las Garzas lagoon, which suffers from high levels of sediment due to soil loss from the watershed and urban activities, and has high levels of nutrients due to discharges from nearby treatment plants and human activities. It is therefore in worse condition than the Cuyutlán lagoon.

Despite its condition, the local environmental authorities have not yet declared it a protected area. Meanwhile, the fourth basin of the Cuyutlán lagoon is about to receive this status, although it does not seem that this protection will impede the already initiated port expansion project.

The area also faces climate threats. Between 2030 and 2050, the coastal areas around Manzanillo and inside the Cuyutlán lagoon will be flooded by rising sea levels, according to forecasts by the international scientific platform Climate Central.

In addition, the port area is exposed to increased flooding from rainfall, according to climate studies by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

Dead mangroves on the shore of the Cuyutlán lagoon, the most important wetland in Mexico’s western Pacific. Credit: Conabio / Semar

Inconsistency

Since 2023, the Ministry of the Navy, which manages the federal ports, has been implementing the Port Decarbonisation Strategy, which aims to reduce emissions in operations.

In what is the second-largest economy of Latin America, 227.75 million tonnes were handled between January and October in the 103 ports of the National Port System (SPN). A figure 7.5% lower than that of the same period in 2023.

Manzanillo handled 30.77 million tonnes – almost 1% less than in the same period of 2023 – up to last November.

In 2022, the 36 ports of the 18 SPN administrations emitted 1.33 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent, almost double the level of 2021, according to the national strategy. Carbon equivalent measures pollution in reference to CO2. Manzanillo released 30% more emissions into the atmosphere than in 2022.

Measurements involve the activity of cargo ships, vessels parked in port, cargo handling equipment, locomotives and cargo trucks, as well as the operation of terminals, operators, service providers, shipping lines, shipping agents, customs, land transport and rail companies.

The Decarbonisation Strategy stipulates emission reductions of 25 % by 2030 and 45 % by 2050, but only sets out general measures, such as planning resilient infrastructure, harmonising management and planning instruments, such as concession titles, master development programmes and operating rules.

It also sets out how to identify, describe and programme the implementation of low-emission energy policies.

Port sustainability includes the consideration of environmental, economic and social aspects, such as pollution, dredging of nearby areas, return on investment and job creation.

But the installation of more hydrocarbon terminals, fuel storage facilities and a gas-fired power plant contradict the strategy’s goals. Official publicity presents it as sustainable because of its gas consumption, despite the fact that it is a highly polluting fossil fuel.

Moreover, the 2021-2026 master programme for port development does not address environmental considerations.

As is the case in the rest of Latin America, no Mexican port appears on the project map of the World Ports Sustainability Programme, an association that brings together the world’s largest environmentally friendly facilities.

Expert Smith pointed to a greater focus on ship operations to improve port sustainability.

“Ships are increasingly environmentally constrained. Ports do not provide renewable energy. Decarbonisation must focus on ships and the biggest polluters are container ships,” he said.

Malagasy woman preparing fish on the beach of Lavanono in the far south of Madagascar. The IPBES Transformative Change Report suggests that principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.

By Busani Bafana
WINDHOEK, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

Nature is at a tipping point. With human activity having pushed up to 1 million plant and animal species close to extinction, securing sustainable development and halting global biodiversity collapse is no longer just an option but a requisite for human wellbeing.

A new report by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) clarifies that only transformative change can reverse the biodiversity crisis and reset humanity’s relationship with nature for just and sustainable futures.

The IPBES Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity, also known as the Transformative Change Report, launched this week during the 11th IPBES Plenary session being held in Namibia, has a stark warning: biodiversity decline is galloping ahead, whipped up by humanity’s disconnect from and dominance over nature, coupled with the inequitable concentration of power and wealth. The prioritization of short-term individual and material gains, the report argues, has also led to the destruction of the fabric of life.

Change and Act Now

The report highlights the need for addressing biodiversity loss through what the authors describe as transformative change—fundamental systemwide shifts in views, including ways of thinking, knowing, and seeing; structures, such as ways of organizing, regulating, and governing; and practices, including ways of doing, behaving, and relating. According to the report, dominant worldviews, structures, and practices have played a significant role in accelerating biodiversity loss. The findings suggest that exploring alternative approaches could contribute to reducing biodiversity loss and achieving a more just and sustainable future.

Prof. Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

 

Prof. Arun Agrawal (India & USA). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

 

Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

“Transformative change for a just and sustainable world is urgent,” says Karen O’Brien (Norway/USA), co-chair of the assessment with Arun Agrawal (India & USA) and Lucas Garibaldi (Argentina). “There is a closing window of opportunity to halt and reverse biodiversity loss and to prevent triggering the potentially irreversible decline and the projected collapse of key ecosystem functions,” she added.

O‘Brien cites that under current trends, there is a serious risk of crossing several irreversible biophysical tipping points, including die-off of low-altitude coral reefs, die-back of the Amazon rainforest, and loss of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.

Justifying the urgency of transformative change, the report notes that past and current conservation approaches have failed to stop the loss of the variety of animals, plants, fungi, and microorganisms. The cost of inaction is high, the report warns.

The report estimates that the cost of addressing biodiversity loss and the decline of nature around the world could double if actions are delayed even by a decade. The report also examines potential opportunities for businesses and innovation through sustainable economic approaches, including nature-positive economies, ecological economies, and Mother-Earth-centric economies.

But the report offers hope. Implementing sustainable solutions to reverse biodiversity loss could generate business opportunities estimated at more than USD 10 trillion in business while supporting 395 million jobs globally by 2030, the report says, stating that transformative change can be created by everyone. In addition, governments can enable transformative change by fostering policies and regulations to benefit nature.

Meeting Sustainable and Biodiversity Goals

The report builds on the 2019 IPBES Global Assessment Report, which found that the only way to achieve global development goals is through transformative change. The latest assessment, prepared over three years, was produced by more than 100 leading experts from 42 countries.

Agrawal says promoting and accelerating transformative change is essential to meeting the 23 action-oriented targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030 and for achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity.

“Transformative change is rarely the outcome of a single event, driver, or actor,” says Agrawal. “It is better understood as changes that each of us can create and multiple cascading shifts that trigger and reinforce one another, often in unexpected ways.”

While addressing the underlying causes of biodiversity loss is challenging as it is complex, it can be done, argues Garibaldi, co-chair of the assessment. He says a new transformation on the scale of the industrial revolution is needed—but one that conserves and restores the biodiversity of the planet rather than depleting it.

The cover of the Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change and Options for Achieving the 2050 Vision for Biodiversity. Credit: IPBES

Case studies of initiatives around the world with transformative potential show that positive outcomes for diverse economic and environmental indicators can happen in a decade or less.

The Transformative Change Report highlights that countries and people can advance deliberate transformative change for global sustainability by conserving places of value to people and nature that exemplify biocultural diversity. Furthermore, people can drive systematic change and mainstream biodiversity in the sectors most responsible for nature’s decline.

“The agriculture and livestock, fisheries, forestry, infrastructure and urban development, mining, and fossil fuel sectors contribute heavily to the worst outcomes for nature,” the report notes. “Transformative approaches such as multifunctional and regenerative land use can promote a variety of benefits for nature and people.”

Inclusivity Key to Nature Transformation

While researching the report, the authors assessed 850 separate “visions of a sustainable world for nature and people,” but found many did not challenge the status quo.

“The diversity of societies, economies, cultures, and peoples means that no single theory or approach provides a complete understanding of transformative change or how to achieve it,” said O’Brien. “Many knowledge systems, including Indigenous and local knowledge, provide complementary insights into how it occurs and how to promote, accelerate, and navigate the change needed for a just and sustainable world.”

At the launch, on Wednesday, December 18, Agrawal said every global problem is often, in essence, unfolding in local context, and what is seen as a global problem is closely and intimately connected to Indigenous knowledge relevant to a local context. He said, for example, adaptation efforts relevant in the Arctic would not be relevant in tropical forests, and emissions that are caused by what is happening in agriculture are not relevant to emissions caused by coal mines or large factories.

“All of these things that we consider as global problems, we need to think about the local particularity of the problem that gets aggregated into a global problem,” said Agrawal.

Coordinating lead author Rafael Calderon Contreras added that humanity was facing the most pressing and challenging crisis in history and that it was critical to learn from Indigenous communities on solutions to tackling the biodiversity crisis.

“What we found in our assessment is that we can learn from each other and that everyone has a role to play in achieving this vision of transformation that the assessment is pushing,” said Contreras.

Visions for living in harmony with nature are more likely to succeed when they emerge from inclusive, rights-based approaches and stakeholder processes and when they incorporate collaboration for change across sectors, the authors suggest.

Principles and Obstacles

The report says embracing the principles of equity and justice; pluralism and inclusion; respectful and reciprocal human-nature relationships; and adaptive learning and action can achieve transformative change.

“The impacts of actions and resources devoted to blocking transformative change, for example through lobbying by vested interest groups or corruption, currently overshadow those devoted to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity,” says O’Brien.

Garibaldi says studies have suggested that increasing biodiversity, protecting natural habitats, and reducing external inputs in agricultural landscapes can enhance crop productivity, for instance, by enhancing pollinator abundance and diversity.

Other strategies that can be used to advance transformative change include changing economic systems for nature and equity, for example, eliminating subsidies that contribute to biodiversity loss. Global public explicit subsidies to sectors driving nature’s decline ranged from USD 1.4 trillion to USD 3.3 trillion per year in 2022, and total public funding for environmentally harmful subsidies has increased by 55 percent since 2021.

It is estimated that between USD 722 billion and USD 967 billion per year is needed to manage biodiversity and maintain ecosystem integrity. Currently, USD 135 billion per year is spent on biodiversity conservation, leaving a biodiversity funding gap of up to USD 824 billion per year.

Transforming governance systems to be inclusive, accountable, and adaptive will promote transformation, the report says, noting that shifting societal views and values to recognize human-nature interconnectedness was strategic for the world to act with haste.

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The conference will address new and emerging issues, and the urgent need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals, and support reform of the international financial architecture.FfD4 will assess the progress made in the implementation of the Monterrey Consensus, the Doha Declaration and the Addis Ababa Action agenda.

By Michael Jarvis
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

As the global community races to close the staggering $4.2 trillion financing gap needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) emerges as a crucial juncture.

Scheduled for June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Seville, Spain, this conference is not merely another gathering of world leaders and finance ministers. It represents a pivotal opportunity to reshape the global financial architecture and address critical issues such as climate financing, tax governance, and debt relief.

Yet, one vital partner in this process—philanthropy—remains largely underutilized. As governments navigate competing priorities and the private sector remains hesitant to fully commit to the development agenda, philanthropic funders have a unique role to play in ensuring that FfD4 delivers on its promise of equitable and sustainable outcomes.

Our recent report titled “Setting the Global Agenda for Tax, Debt, and International Aid through 2035,” underscores this urgency. The report calls on funders to engage actively in the FfD4 process and outlines key ways they can contribute to its success.

One vital contribution is widening stakeholder participation. Philanthropic funders can ensure that Global South civil society organizations (CSOs) have a seat at the table by providing financial support for their participation. The FfD4’s inclusive intergovernmental format, managed by the United Nations, is unique in offering Global South countries an equal footing, but to influence the eventual outcomes you need to be in the negotiating rooms.

Earlier this month, government representatives began narrowing down their wishlist in discussions in New York, but it is expensive to send delegations. Funders can facilitate the engagement of Global South governments in negotiations by financially supporting their involvement. This helps amplify their voices and ensures that systemic reforms reflect their realities and needs.

Additionally, philanthropy can bridge underfunded areas by supporting innovative research and advocacy efforts, particularly in tax reform and debt governance. For example, among the proposals up for debate is creation of a tax on the super wealthy backed by a global asset registry, a concept built out with philanthropic support. Filling these thematic gaps is essential to assuring that FfD4 sets an ambitious agenda for the decade to come.

Another critical action is for funders to make public commitments aligning their strategies with the FfD4 agenda backed by new investments, so inspiring others and encouraging donor accountability. The real test of FfD4’s impact, however, will come in the follow-up phase. Continued funding from philanthropic actors will be critical to ensuring the promises made at the conference are translated into concrete actions.

At the heart of the FfD4 agenda are issues that demand urgent and transformative action. The global debt crisis, for example, has left many developing nations in a financial stranglehold, threatening their economic stability and ability to invest in health, education, and infrastructure. A UN-mandated legal framework for debt resolution and targeted relief measures could provide a lifeline, but these require sustained advocacy and pressure from all quarters, including philanthropic actors.

Similarly, taxation and illicit financial flows (IFFs) remain contentious issues. Developing countries lose an estimated $1 trillion annually to tax avoidance and evasion, undermining their ability to fund essential services. Philanthropy can support research and policy advocacy to ensure that Global South perspectives are at the forefront of these reforms.

Finally, the conference will revisit the role of private financing in closing the SDG funding gap. While leveraging private capital has shown mixed results, the philanthropic community can play a critical role in identifying and promoting alternative, effective solutions.

While philanthropy has often been a silent partner in the Financing for Development process, this is the moment to step forward and make a tangible and long-lasting impact. For funders, FfD4 is not just an event—it is a call to action. It is an opportunity to amplify the voices of the marginalized, push for systemic change, and hold governments and institutions accountable. The philanthropic community must seize this moment to drive reforms that prioritize equity, transparency, and sustainability.

The clock is ticking. The world is watching. And philanthropy must rise to the occasion.

Michael Jarvis is the Executive Director of The Trust, Accountability, and Inclusion (TAI) Collaborative. The TAI Collaborative is a network of philanthropic funders committed to advancing a world where power and resources are distributed more equitably, communities are informed and empowered, and governments and the corporate sector act with integrity for the good of people and planet.

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Togo's President, Faure Gnassingbé

By Promise Eze
ABUJA, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

In May 2024, Togo’s President Faure Gnassingbé signed a new constitution, transitioning the country from a presidential to a parliamentary system. Under this new framework, lawmakers are responsible for electing the president.

Supporters of the reforms argue that this transition diminishes Faure Gnassingbé’s powers by making the presidency a largely ceremonial role. Human Rights Minister Yawa Djigbodi Tségan claimed the changes would improve democracy in the country. However, the opposition has called it a “constitutional coup,” accusing Gnassingbé of using it to entrench his power by removing term limits.

The new constitution extends presidential terms from five to six years and establishes a single-term limit. However, the nearly 20 years that Gnassingbé has already been in office will not be included in this count.

The reforms were passed by a parliament dominated by the ruling Union pour la République (UNIR) party, led by Gnassingbé. Despite public opposition, the president implemented the amendments after his party secured a majority in parliament.

A History of Power and Repression

The Gnassingbé family’s dominance began with President Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who seized power in 1967, just a few years after Togo gained independence from France. Eyadéma ruled for 38 years, during which he removed presidential term limits in 2002. His regime was marked by severe repression and allegations of human rights abuses, including violent crackdowns on protests and political assassinations.

Human rights organizations like Amnesty International frequently condemned Eyadéma’s government for its brutality, but Eyadéma dismissed these claims as part of a denigratory campaign against him, insisting that true Togolese democracy was based on security and peace.

After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, his son, Faure Gnassingbé, was installed as president by the military, sparking widespread protests and violence. Faure has since won disputed elections in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. Despite reinstating term limits in 2019, they were not applied retroactively, allowing Faure to remain in office until at least 2030.

Gnassingbé’s Constitutional Façade

Many critics argue that the recent constitutional changes are simply a cover for Faure Gnassingbé to maintain control. Under the new system, the president will serve a largely ceremonial role, while real power will rest with the “president of the council of ministers,” a position that is expected to go to Gnassingbé himself.

In the period leading up to the vote in April, the government took measures to restrict civil liberties, including banning protests, arresting opposition leaders, and preventing the Catholic Church from deploying election observers. Foreign journalists were also barred from reporting on the events.

Abdul Majeed Hajj Sibo, a political analyst based in Ghana, told IPS that the reforms are a façade designed to give the illusion of democracy.

“Even the elections that keep bringing Faure back to power are manipulated. This constitutional façade is meant to deceive the Togolese people into believing there is change, but nothing has really changed,” Sibo said.

Faure’s rule is part of a broader trend of “strongman politics” in Africa, argues Sizo Nkala, a Research Fellow at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg. He notes that, like many other African leaders, Faure has used a combination of patronage, violence, ethnic favoritism, sham elections, and bogus constitutional amendments to stay in power.

“This is a common playbook used by dictators across the continent,” Nkala said.

Nkala posits that while Togo has effectively switched to a parliamentary system, similar to South Africa, the environment in which the elections take place makes all the difference.

“South Africa is a vibrant, multiparty democracy where elections are reasonably free and fair. This is why the African National Congress (ANC), which has governed the country since 1994, lost its majority in the May elections and was forced to form a coalition government with other parties. Moreover, South African legislators do follow their party lines but also enjoy a degree of autonomy. The same cannot be said of the Togolese parliament and electoral process. Elections are rigged frequently, and parliamentarians do not have the latitude to act according to their own convictions. Unlike in South Africa, there is no real separation of powers between the executive and legislature in Togo, which has given rise to the dictatorship and authoritarianism we see today,” he added.

Opposition Under Fire

The opposition in Togo has long faced a harsh political environment. Protests demanding democratic reforms have often been met with government crackdowns. After Eyadéma’s death in 2005, Faure’s rise to power was met with mass protests that led to the deaths of up to 500 people, and many were displaced.

The slogan “Faure Must Go” has become a rallying cry, but government crackdowns have consistently stifled opposition efforts.

“The last thing the Gnassingbé regime will want to see is a formidable opposition outfit; hence it has thrown spanners in the operations of the opposition. This is part of the reason the opposition won only 5 out of the 113 seats in parliament in the April elections,” Nkala told IPS.

He adds: “The Togolese opposition has struggled to mount a unified challenge to the Gnassingbé regime because they work in a very difficult environment where their activists could be subjected to violence, jailed arbitrarily, abducted, or even killed without recourse to justice for merely exercising their constitutional rights of dissent, freedom of association, and speech.”

Analysts also say that cracks and disputes among the Togolese opposition are also a limiting factor.

“The opposition needs to unite and fight as a single bloc, but they have been unable to do so,” Sibo told IPS. Boycotts of elections by opposition factions in the past have only strengthened Gnassingbé’s grip on power, he added.

Kwesi Obeng, a socio-political and inclusive governance expert at the University of Ghana, told IPS that it would be difficult for the opposition to make any headway not just because of its fragmentation but also because a tiny political and economic elite with very close ties to the Gnassingbé family has effectively captured the state of Togo and all its institutions. This dominance over state power and resources, he says, has made it very difficult for any group to break through.

He argued that this situation has resulted in wealth being concentrated in the hands of a few individuals.

“Many people live below the poverty line. In fact half of the Togolese living in rural areas—about 58%—really live in poverty. Additionally, about a quarter of those living in urban areas also live below the poverty line. So, you have a significant portion of the population living precarious lives, with barely any jobs, income, or access to basic services,” Obeng said.

Despite the ruling party’s dominance, the resilience of the opposition shows that there are still those willing to risk their lives for change, Nkala notes, adding that the opposition’s persistence, despite the odds, is a testament to the determination of millions of Togolese people who want to see an end to the Gnassingbé dynasty.

International Response and France’s Role

France has maintained a close relationship with the Gnassingbé family, which has fueled resentment in Togo. After Faure’s re-election in February 2020—an election condemned as rigged by the opposition—France sent him a congratulatory letter, sparking controversy.

Critics, like Sibo, argue that France continues to support the autocratic regime for economic reasons.

Former French President Jacques Chirac once  referred to President Gnassingbé Eyadéma as a “friend to France and a personal friend,” despite the human rights abuses associated with his regime.

Sibo believes this loyalty to the Gnassingbé dynasty has contributed to France’s reluctance to challenge the regime.

“As long as it serves their interests, France will turn a blind eye to the atrocities committed by the Gnassingbé family,” Sibo said.

Obeng agrees with Sibo’s views. “France runs the port, a major contributor to the Togolese GDP, and many major businesses in the country are partly French-owned. Therefore, I think the French government is not interested in unsettling the status quo regarding the governance system and structure in Togo. With Sahelian countries having driven the French out of that part of the continent, France now has very little foothold. As a result, they are reluctant to destabilize a country like Togo, which could potentially join the ranks of nations that have expelled the French from their territory.”

Efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) to address Togo’s political issues have been limited. ECOWAS’s failure to act on the situation in Togo damages its reputation as a leader in promoting regional stability and development, analysts say.

In 2015, ECOWAS attempted to introduce a two-term presidential limit across its member states, but this was blocked by Togo and Gambia.

Experts like Nkala are of the opinion that these organizations lack the legal authority to intervene effectively and that reforms are needed to give them real powers to enforce democratic protocols in member states.

Concerns are mounting over President Faure Gnassingbé’s role in the US-Africa Business Summit. Observers have pointed out that Western nations and organizations often do not authentically champion democracy in Africa. Critics claim these entities tend to prioritize their own agendas, often siding with questionable governments instead.

The Way Forward

With Faure’s party holding a strong majority in parliament, it seems unlikely that the regime will fall anytime soon, critics told IPS.

Nkala believes that unless Gnassingbé loses control of the military or faces a significant challenge from within his own party, political change is unlikely in the near future.

“The military is key to Faure’s power, and as long as they remain loyal, he will continue to rule Togo,” Nkala said.

Obeng says that as long as the elite continue to control the state machinery, including organizing elections, it will be very difficult for the opposition to unseat the government.

He added: “The opposition has made it clear that the elections were rigged, which is why some members chose not to participate. The Togolese opposition has already published its verdict that the elections were manipulated, and we need to take their charges seriously.”

However, Sibo remains hopeful that with greater unity, the opposition could eventually challenge the regime. “The opposition must focus on building a unified front,” he said. “If they can do that, there is still a chance for change.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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A congested street in Bulawayo where public transporters pick up passengers at an undesignated point. Credit: Ignatius Banda/IPS

By Ignatius Banda
BULAWAYO, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

As the population in African cities grows, governments are struggling to provide sustainable public transport solutions, conditions that have led to gridlock in major business districts.

Projections show rapid growth of urban populations across the continent, and town planners are hard-pressed for time on how new spaces and infrastructure will be created for efficient public transport.

A growing number of cities are expected to hit a population of more than 10 million people by 2035, but social services are failing to match the overload on existing infrastructure, with public transport being one of the major sticking points.

In countries such as Zimbabwe, where government-owned transport utilities have been overtaken by thousands of illegal taxi operators, local authorities are fighting an uphill battle to bring order out of the urban chaos.

In the country’s two major cities, Harare and Bulawayo, municipalities have put in place measures to decongest the public transport sector, but these have fallen flat as both registered and unregistered operators have routinely ignored the decrees to work from designated points.

For example, in 2015, the city of Bulawayo awarded a multimillion-dollar contract for the construction of what was hoped to be a futuristic public transport terminus, but operators have shunned it, claiming its positioning in the central business district is bad for business.

While the Egodini Mall Taxi Rank and Informal Traders Market was also expected to provide trading space for vendors in anticipation of business from travelers, it is marked by empty vending bays, with traders preferring crowded CBD sidewalks instead.

City mayor David Coltart has conceded that the project risks becoming a white elephant, and construction of the next phase of the project has been halted to deal with these challenges, highlighting the challenge growing cities face in their efforts to modernise amenities.

Zimbabwe’s public transport headaches come against the backdrop of the Second World Sustainable Transport Day this November, where policymakers and agencies rethink urban mobility.

Other pertinent issues include ways of incorporating public transport into the broader improvement of “safety and security, reducing pollution and CO2 emissions while increasing the attractiveness of urban environments,” according to a United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) briefing during the 2023 World Sustainable Transport Day.

According to UN Habitat, the day was declared by the UN General Assembly “in recognition of the important role of safe, affordable, accessible, and sustainable transport systems for all in supporting sustainable economic growth, improving the social welfare of people, and enhancing international cooperation and trade among countries.”

However, to achieve this, UNECA says African governments must put in place “remedial measures” that will ensure the continent’s transportation systems are more sustainable and environmentally friendly.

“African governments must prioritize inclusive urban planning,” said Atkeyelsh Persson, chief of the Urbanization and Development Section at the Economic Commission for Africa.

“Key areas of focus should include upgrading infrastructure such as roads and utilities,” Persson told IPS.

This comes as Zimbabwe and other regional countries seem to be going backwards in realising UNECA’s goals as they are struggling to cope with rapid urbanisation and provide sustainable urban transport solutions for city dwellers.

During last year’s inaugural World Sustainable Transport Day, UNECA said the continent was in urgent need of developing sustainable and resilient public transport infrastructure if Africa is to “optimise the development of interconnected highways, railways, waterways, and airways.”

The agency noted that Africa’s rapid urbanisation was also a call to escalate sustainable urban transport solutions, but with government cuts in public spending and also the drying up of private investors in the sector, public transportation has only deteriorated.

“Despite this growth in urban populations, the rate of growth in housing, infrastructure, and basic amenities has not kept pace with this urban growth,” said Nyovani Madise, a demographics professor and President of the Union for African Population Studies.

“This has resulted in mushrooming of urban informal settlements, waste and pollution, congestion on the roads and overcrowding,” Madise told IPS.

While UNECA has called for the optimisation of interconnected transportation, Zimbabwe’s once thriving railways has become virtually nonexistent, with the National Railways suspending its passenger train service citing operational challenges.

As part of desperate efforts to deal with the shrinking space for public transport, the Bulawayo municipality is planning to take over parking space at the National Railways of Zimbabwe train station for use as a long-distance bus terminus.

The unusual move was triggered by an increasing number of long-distance buses in Bulawayo who have joined smaller pirate taxis picking up passengers in undesignated points.

These developments have further highlighted the difficulties some African countries face in balancing urban population growth and public transport needs, which could be a missed opportunity towards UNECA’s proposed “socially inclusive, environmentally sustainable, and well-governed continent.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Venezuela's legislative National Assembly approves the Bolivar law to punish with unprecedented severity those who support or facilitate punitive measures against the country. Credit: AN

By Jorge Pastrán
WASHINGTON, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

In Venezuela you can no longer say in public that the economic sanctions applied by the United States and other countries are appropriate, or even be suspected of considering any of the authorities illegitimate, because you can be sentenced to up to 30 years in prison and lose all your assets.

In late November, the ruling National Assembly passed the Simon Bolivar Organic Law (of superior rank) against the imperialist blockade and in defence of the Republic, the latest in a regulatory padlock closing civic space, according to human rights organisations.“We see a process of authoritarian learning. When we look at democratic setbacks, we see things that are repeated as patterns, such as the closure of civic space, of civil organisations, of journalism, of democratic political parties”: Carolina Jiménez Sandoval.

The powers of the Venezuelan state thus responded to United States’ and the European Union’s sanctions, and to the protests and denunciations of opponents and American and European governments, to the effect that a gigantic fraud was committed in the presidential election of 28 July this year.

The ruling Nicolás Maduro was proclaimed by the electoral and judicial powers as re-elected president for a third six-year term beginning on 10 January 2025, even though the opposition claims, by showing voting records, that it was their candidate Edmundo González who won, with at least 67% of the vote.

Speaking to IPS, several human rights defenders agreed that the country is following the example of Nicaragua, where laws and measures are driving hundreds of opponents into prison and exile, stripping them of their nationality and property, and suppressing critical voices by shutting down thousands of civil, religious and educational organisations.

“A red line has been crossed and the Nicaraguan path has been taken. Arbitrariness has been put in writing, in black and white, the repressive reality of the Venezuelan state, something even the military despots of the past did not do,” said lawyer Alí Daniels, director of the organisation Acceso a la Justicia, from Caracas.

The law adopted its long name as an indignant response to the US Bolivar Act, an acronym for Banning Operations and Leases with the Illegitimate Venezuelan Authoritarian Regime, designed to block most of that country’s business dealings with Venezuela.

The president of the non-governmental Washington Office on Latin America (Wola), Carolina Jiménez Sandoval, observed that “the closer we get to 10 January, the day when whoever won the 28 July election must be sworn in, we see more and more laws meant to stifling civic space.”

Other laws along these lines include: one to punish behaviour or messages deemed to incite hatred; another “against fascism, neo-fascism and similar expressions”; a reform to promptly elect 30,000 justices of the peace; and a law to control non-governmental organisations.

Demonstration in Caracas demanding respect for human rights. Credit: Civilis

Mere suspicion is enough

The Venezuelan Bolivar act considers that sanctions and other restrictive measures against the country “constitute a crime against humanity”, and lists conduct and actions that put the nation and its population at risk.

These include promoting, requesting or supporting punitive measures by foreign states or corporations, and “disregarding the public powers legitimately established in the Republic, their acts or their authorities.”

Those who have at any time “promoted, instigated, requested, invoked, favoured, supported or participated in the adoption or execution of measures” deemed harmful to the population or the authorities, will be barred from running for elected office for up to 60 years.

Any person who “promotes, instigates, solicits, invokes, favours, facilitates, supports or participates in the adoption or execution of unilateral coercive measures” against the population or the powers in Venezuela will be punished with 25 to 30 years in prison and fines equivalent to between US$100,000 and one million.

In the case of media and digital platforms, the punishment will be a heavy fine and the closure or denial of permits to operate.

The law highlights the creation of “a register that will include the identification of natural and legal persons, national or foreign, with respect to whom there is good reason to consider that they are involved in any of the actions contrary to the values and inalienable rights of the state.”

This registry is created to “impose restrictive, temporary economic measures of an administrative nature, aimed at mitigating the damage that their actions cause against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and its population.”

Daniels tells IPS that “this means that a mere suspicion on the part of an official, with good reason to believe that a sanction is supported, is sufficient for a preventive freezing of a person’s assets, prohibiting them from buying, selling or acting in a money-making business.”

“Without prior trial, by an official’s decision, without knowing where to appeal against the entry in that register, the person is stripped of means of livelihood. Civil death returns,” he added.

Archive image of a national meeting of human rights defenders. Credit: Civicus

Other laws

The “anti-hate law” – without defining what is meant by it – has since 2018 prosecuted protesters, journalists, firefighters, political activists and human rights defenders on charges of directing messages inciting hatred towards the authorities.

This year, the state endowed itself with a law to punish fascism and similar expressions, a broad arc because it considers that “racism, chauvinism, classism, moral conservatism, neoliberalism and misogyny are common features of this stance.”

It has also reformed the justice of the peace law to promote the popular election of 30,000 local judges, under criticism from human rights organisations that see the process as a mechanism for the control of communities by pro-government activists and the promotion of informing on neighbours.

And, while the Bolivar act was being passed, the law on the control of NGOs and similar organisations was published, which NGOs have labelled an “anti-society law”, as it contains provisions that easily nullify their capacity for action and their very existence.

The law establishes a new registry with some 30 requirements, which are difficult for NGOs to meet, but they can only operate if authorised by the government, which can suspend them from operating or sanction them with fines in amounts that in practice are confiscatory.

“I think the application of the Bolívar law is going to be very discretionary, and if Maduro is sworn in again on Jan. 10, civic space will be almost completely closed and the social and democratic leadership will have to work underground,” sociologist Rafael Uzcátegui, director of the Venezuelan Laboratorio de Paz, which operates in Caracas, told IPS.

The president of Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega, and his wife and vice-president, Rosario Murillo, have taken measures against dissent that are models of authoritarianism in the region. Human rights activists believe that in countries such as Venezuela and El Salvador their strategies and norms are being replicated by those who seek to remain in power indefinitely. Credit: Presidency of Nicaragua

The Nicaraguan path

Daniels also argues that with the Bolívar law, the government “is going back 160 years, when the Venezuelan Constitution after the Federal War (1859-1863) abolished the death penalty and life sentences. A punishment that lasts 60 years in practice is in perpetuity, exceeding the average life expectancy of an adult in Venezuela.”

Along with this, “although without going to the Nicaraguan extreme of stripping the alleged culprits of their nationality, punishments are imposed that can turn people into civilian zombies, driven into exile. As in Nicaragua”.

For Jiménez Sandoval “there are similarities with Nicaragua, a harsh and consolidated case. It has cancelled the legal personality of more than 3,000 organisations, including humanitarian entities, national and international human rights organisations and universities, through the application of very strict laws.”

“In these cases… we see a process of authoritarian learning. When we look at democratic setbacks, we see things that are repeated as patterns, such as the closure of civic space, of civil organisations, of journalism, of democratic political parties,” she told IPS.

To achieve this, “they use different strategies, such as co-opting legislatures to make laws that allow them to imprison and silence those who think differently, to avoid any kind of criticism, because, at the end of the day, the ultimate goal of authoritarianism is to remain in power indefinitely”, concluded Jiménez Sandoval.

The General Assembly adopts a resolution on a "Demand for ceasefire in Gaza" during the resumed 10th Emergency Special Session of the General Assembly on “Illegal Israeli actions in occupied East Jerusalem and the rest of the Occupied Palestinian Territory”. Credit: UN Photo/Manuel Elías

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

After 14 months of conflict between Israel and Palestine, talks of a ceasefire agreement have headed in a promising direction. The proposed agreement entails the release of hostages in Gaza, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Palestinian land, and a strategy for displaced Gazans to safely return to their homes in the northern region of the enclave. Despite both Israeli and Palestinian officials expressing optimism over this agreement, hostilities from the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continue to endanger the lives and infrastructures of thousands of Gazans.

On December 16, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz informed the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Israel is “closer than ever” to securing a deal with Hamas to free the Israeli hostages and end hostilities in Palestine. A senior Palestinian official echoed this sentiment to reporters, describing the negotiations between the two parties as in a “decisive and final phase”.

“We believe – and the Israelis have said this – that we’re getting closer, and no doubt about it, we believe that, but we also are cautious in our optimism,” said White House spokesperson John Kirby. Despite talks of a ceasefire swirling in the media and among top officials, the IDF continues to conduct airstrikes on densely populated areas and have issued new orders of evacuation, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

“In Gaza city, humanitarian partners say hostilities escalated over the weekend – particularly in areas affected by the new evacuation orders – leaving more Palestinians killed and injured,” said United Nations (UN) spokesperson Stephane Dujarric.

On December 12, two airstrikes hit three residential buildings in an Al Nuseirat camp in central Gaza. According to figures from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), these airstrikes killed an estimated 49 Palestinians, including at least 17 children. Three days later, the IDF issued a direct airstrike on a school in East Tuffah, causing considerable damage to the building and injuring several civilians.

Local authorities have confirmed that approximately 110 Palestinians were killed from December 14-15 in the Gaza Strip. On December 16, the IDF conducted a bombardment on a school-turned-shelter in Khan Younis, located in the southern region of the enclave. According to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), at least 13 people died and 48 were injured in this attack.

UNRWA Senior Emergency Officer Louise Wateridge described the brutality of this attack to UN News, saying, “I have been to Nasser Hospital this morning. One of the children I spoke to, her name was Mona, 17 years old; she had very severe injuries to her leg – she had very severe shrapnel wounds – and she was in the hospital with her sister…their mother was crushed to death under the rubble.”

The IDF claimed that the shelter was used as a training compound that would coordinate attacks against Israel. Hamas refuted these claims and accused the IDF of trying to “justify indiscriminate killings”.

Manal Tafesh, a resident of the Khan Younis camp who has lost her brother and children in the attack, informed reporters that people were eating dinner in their homes when the airstrikes hit the camp. “Our children are gone, our children are gone. Our youth is gone. Our children are gone, and our lineage ended. When will this darkness end?” Tafesh said.

On December 16, the UN confirmed that more than 45,000 civilians have been killed over the past 14 months of conflict in Gaza. Catherine Russell, the Executive-Director of the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), stated in a press release that approximately 14,500 Gazan children have been killed.

According to Dujarric, Israeli authorities had issued two new evacuation orders on December 13 and 14. These orders went into effect in Gaza City, northern Gaza, and the Deir al Balah area. The UN’s partners described 250 families moving southward from northern Gaza and roughly 450 families fleeing their homes in Deir al Balah. According to UN estimates, approximately 1,500 Gazans were displaced overnight on December 14 from Izbet Beit Hanoun.

Living conditions continue to grow worse in displacement shelters as the harsh winter season approaches. According to Russell, famine looms in the north and humanitarian access remains severely restricted.

On December 13, the World Food Programme (WFP) posted a statement on X (formerly known as Twitter), highlighting the urgency of the growing levels of famine among displaced persons in Gaza. WFP’s Head of Emergency Communications, Jonathan Dumont, warned that due to the restriction of humanitarian aid deliveries, most Gazans were likely not getting enough to eat. “To prevent famine we need to find a way to get a consistent flow of food in,” Dumont said.

Dumont went on to describe the deteriorating living conditions in Gaza, saying, “There’s no electricity or running water or sewage (treatment). Almost everyone has lost their home. A lot of people are living in tents.”

Russell added that infectious diseases have run rampant in displacement shelters, with an estimated 800 documented cases of hepatitis and 300 cases of chickenpox. Additionally, thousands of children are suffering from skin rashes and acute respiratory infections, which have been exacerbated by the cold weather.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Harmful gasses continue to be released into the atmosphere across the world. Credit: Unsplash/Ehud Neuhaus

By Richmond Acheampong
ACCRA, Ghana , Dec 18 2024 (IPS)

The climate crisis, a defining challenge of the 21st century, is not just an environmental issue; it is increasingly a critical arena for international diplomacy. From intense negotiations at COP summits to the politics of energy transitions and resource control, climate change is shaping the geopolitical landscape.

This dynamic reflects deep divides between developed and developing nations on climate justice and raises critical questions about whether global diplomacy can bridge these tensions to achieve meaningful change.

Climate Change

Climate change is a global problem requiring collective action, but the geopolitical nature of climate negotiations often complicates this goal. At international forums such as the Conference of the Parties (COP), countries are expected to come together to craft solutions to limit global temperature rises. However, these forums frequently highlight stark disparities in perspectives, priorities and responsibilities.

Developed nations, historically responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions, often push for ambitious global targets. Yet, they are also accused of failing to deliver on their promises of financial and technological support for developing nations.

Developing countries, on the other hand, prioritize adaptation and financial aid, arguing that their limited historical contributions to emissions and ongoing developmental needs make equity and fairness non-negotiable.

This tension has been a recurring theme, exemplified by the debates around loss and damage funding, the establishment of which marked a significant step at COP27 in Egypt. While the agreement was a victory for climate justice advocates, questions remain over its operationalization and whether it can meaningfully address the complex needs of vulnerable countries.

The Politics of Energy Transitions

The transition to renewable energy lies at the heart of climate action, but it also underpins new forms of geopolitical rivalry. The shift from fossil fuels to renewables disrupts existing power dynamics in the global energy market, creating opportunities and challenges.

Developed nations, equipped with technological advancements and financial resources, are positioning themselves as leaders in renewable energy. The European Union, for instance, has spearheaded green initiatives such as the European Green Deal, while the United States has invested heavily in clean energy infrastructure through the Inflation Reduction Act.

These countries frame their actions as models for others to follow, yet their own energy security priorities sometimes overshadow global equity concerns.

For resource-rich developing nations, the politics of energy transitions are more nuanced. Countries like Nigeria and Angola, whose economies rely heavily on fossil fuel exports, face the dual challenge of transitioning to renewables while maintaining economic stability.

Moreover, resource control over critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements, essential for renewable energy technologies, has turned countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo into focal points of international competition.

The scramble for these resources raises concerns over whether the renewable energy revolution will perpetuate the same extractive patterns that have historically marginalized the Global South.

Climate Justice

The concept of climate justice underscores the inequities between developed and developing nations in their capacity to combat and adapt to climate change. Developed nations, having industrialized on the back of carbon-intensive activities, are now urging the Global South to follow a low-carbon development path. However, this demand often neglects the realities faced by many developing nations.

Countries in the Global South are disproportionately affected by climate impacts despite contributing the least to global emissions. From rising sea levels in the Pacific Islands to desertification in the Sahel, vulnerable nations bear the brunt of a crisis they did not create. Calls for climate finance, particularly grants rather than loans, have been central to their demands, as they seek support for adaptation, mitigation, and loss and damage recovery.

Yet, the failure of developed nations to fulfill their long-standing pledge of $100 billion annually in climate finance exacerbates mistrust. At COP28 and beyond, developing nations are likely to continue pressing for stronger commitments and mechanisms to ensure accountability. The tension lies not just in the amount of financing but also in its accessibility, with many vulnerable nations criticizing complex processes that delay much-needed support.

Diplomacy at COP

The annual COP summits are microcosms of the broader diplomatic battle over climate change. Since the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015, these summits have sought to galvanize global action to limit temperature increases to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, the implementation of these commitments remains uneven and the ambition gap persists.

The Paris Agreement’s hallmark principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” (CBDR-RC) captures the equity challenge at the heart of climate diplomacy. It acknowledges that while all nations must act on climate change, their responsibilities differ based on historical emissions and capacities.

Yet, operationalizing this principle often leads to disagreements. Developed nations emphasize collective action and insist that emerging economies like China and India ramp up their mitigation efforts. Conversely, developing nations argue that they should not bear the same burden as historically high emitters.

The incremental nature of COP negotiations also invites criticism. Critics argue that the focus on long-term goals often overshadows the urgency of immediate action, and the influence of powerful fossil fuel lobbyists at these summits further complicates progress. Despite these challenges, COP summits remain a vital platform for fostering dialogue, building coalitions, and driving incremental but meaningful change.

Beyond COP

The geopolitics of climate change extend far beyond COP negotiations. Climate action has become a strategic lever in foreign policy, with countries using it to forge alliances, exert influence and secure economic advantages.

For instance, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has incorporated green development as a key pillar, with Beijing promoting renewable energy projects across the Global South. However, critics question whether these projects align with sustainability goals or primarily serve China’s geopolitical interests.

Similarly, the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which imposes tariffs on carbon-intensive imports, is seen by some as a protectionist measure that could disadvantage developing countries.

The United States has also positioned itself as a climate leader under the Biden administration, rejoining the Paris Agreement and committing to ambitious domestic targets. However, its international credibility on climate action remains fragile, given its historical withdrawal from agreements and ongoing domestic political divisions.

Can Global Diplomacy Bridge the Divide?

The ability of global diplomacy to overcome tensions and achieve meaningful change hinges on several factors. First, trust-building measures, such as fulfilling climate finance commitments and establishing transparent mechanisms for loss and damage funding, are essential. Second, fostering inclusive decision-making that amplifies the voices of vulnerable nations can help bridge the North-South divide.

Innovative approaches, such as the Bridgetown Initiative proposed by Barbados, offer a potential roadmap. This initiative advocates for reforming the global financial system to better address climate vulnerabilities, emphasizing grants, concessional financing and debt relief for climate-affected countries. Such proposals highlight the need for structural changes that go beyond the traditional frameworks of climate diplomacy.

Finally, the rise of climate activism and youth movements worldwide has injected new urgency and accountability into the process. From Greta Thunberg’s Fridays for Future to indigenous movements defending natural resources, these voices challenge governments to act with greater ambition and equity.

Conclusion

The climate crisis is undeniably a diplomatic battlefield, reflecting deep-seated inequities and competing priorities. While international forums like COP provide a platform for negotiation, the path to meaningful change requires addressing the underlying tensions between developed and developing nations. Climate justice, equitable energy transitions, and innovative financial mechanisms must take center stage if global diplomacy is to succeed.

The stakes could not be higher. As the impacts of climate change accelerate, the world faces a narrowing window of opportunity to act decisively. Only through genuine collaboration, rooted in fairness and shared responsibility, can humanity rise to the challenge and transform the climate crisis from a battlefield into a catalyst for global solidarity.

Richmond Acheampong is a journalist and columnist specializing in international affairs, a PR expert, and a journalism lecturer with a PhD in Journalism and expertise in global diplomacy and foreign policy. Contact: achmondsky@gmail.com

IPS UN Bureau

 

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By CIVICUS
Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

 
CIVICUS speaks with Ramón Zamora, son of Guatemalan journalist José Rubén Zamora, about restrictions on press freedom and the challenges of defending human rights in Guatemala.

Rubén Zamora is part of the CIVICUS Stand as My Witness campaign, which seeks the release of unjustly imprisoned human rights defenders. The veteran journalist, founder of Periódico Siglo 21 and renowned for his investigations into corruption, has been fighting unfounded accusations of money laundering for over two years. His legal situation took a turn for the worse recently when a court ordered his return to prison after a brief period of house arrest. As his family prepared to appeal, President Bernardo Arévalo denounced the court’s decision as an attack on freedom of expression.

Ramón Zamora

What was your father’s role in Guatemalan journalism and what led him to antagonise powerful forces?

My father comes from a family of journalists. His grandfather, Clemente Marroquín, was the founder of La Hora, one of the most important newspapers in Guatemalan history. In 1990, my father founded the media outlet Siglo 21. A transition to democracy was underway and he had understood that democracy couldn’t function without real freedom of expression, that is, when people aren’t able to express their ideas without fear. That’s why it was important to have a media outlet that, on top of providing information, also included a plurality of voices.

Siglo 21 opened up spaces for leftist thought, which earned it threats and attacks from sources linked to the army. In addition, from the outset it dealt with sensitive issues, which quickly put it in the crosshairs of many powerful figures. Threats and attacks soon followed for his investigations into corruption. In 1993, following a coup by then President Jorge Serrano Elías, who suspended the constitution and dissolved Congress, the presidential security service came looking for my father and the family was forced into hiding. However, my father continued to fight, publishing a banned edition of Siglo 21, which had been censored, and sharing information with international media.

After leaving Siglo 21, he founded El Periódico in 1996 and Nuestro Diario in 1998, always with the aim of continuing to investigate corruption. His investigations led to the jailing of several powerful people. Over the years he suffered arbitrary treatment, assassination attempts and kidnappings, but he continued his work, until 2022, when he was arbitrarily arrested and sentenced in retaliation for exposing corruption in the government of Alejandro Giammattei.

What were the charges that sent your father to prison?

He was accused of money laundering, extortion and influence peddling. It was alleged that he used the newspaper and his access to government sources to obtain privileged information to extort money from businesspeople and public officials. According to government officials, my father threatened to publish stories in the newspaper if they did not comply with his demands, and allegedly laundered the money from these extortions through the newspaper.

To understand the justification for his arrest, we need to consider the broader context of attacks on the newspaper. Since 2013, the newspaper has suffered economic pressure and threats from government officials, such as then Vice-president Roxana Baldetti, who called our clients to threaten them with investigations if they continued to support the newspaper with advertising. This reduced the paper’s income by more than half. To get around the pressure, my father finally started accepting donations from people who wanted to remain anonymous. This was one of the reasons he was accused of laundering undeclared money. My father was criminalised for defending freedom of expression and denouncing corruption.

How did your father experience these years of arbitrary detention?

At first it was very hard because he was held in a military prison, in a very small cell, completely isolated from other prisoners. In the same prison were people convicted of corruption thanks to the reporting he had published, which put him in great danger. He soon started receiving constant threats.

In the first few days, his cell was searched several times, and bedbugs found their way into his bed, causing severe bites all over his body. He was unable to sleep because of the constant noise, as there was construction going on next to his cell. It was all very stressful, both physically and emotionally. There were times when he thought he would never get out alive. To make matters worse, we were often denied authorisation to enter the prison or given ridiculous excuses, which kept him in a constant state of uncertainty.

He also suffered greatly during court hearings. There was one judge who went out of his way to prevent him having access to a proper defence. We had to change lawyers several times and many of them were persecuted for defending my father.

My brother and I worked to keep the newspaper afloat, even though several journalists were forced into exile. A few months ago we managed to get my father released to house arrest, but his case continued to be full of irregularities and a month later the benefit of house arrest was lifted. We are still waiting for the appeals court to review the decision, but it is likely he will have to return to prison this week or next. My father is still fighting for his freedom and a fair trial to prove his innocence.

How can the international community help?

The international community has played a very important role in the whole process. We were able to get my father out of prison in large part because of pressure from organisations such as Amnesty International, CIVICUS, the Committee to Protect Journalists, Freedom House, Reporters Without Borders and others who spoke out and mobilised.

As a family, we have always felt supported. We are now awaiting the resolution of the amparo appeal – a petition to protect constitutional rights, which could allow my father to continue his struggle from home. This would be ideal, although we are still awaiting a final decision.

The international community must continue to defend human rights and freedom of expression and support the media, particularly in countries where corruption and impunity prevail.

Get in touch
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See also
Guatemala: ‘Corrupt elites see defenders of justice as a threat to their interests and try to silence them’ Interview with Virginia Laparra 30.Aug.2024
Guatemala: ‘Disregard for the will of the people expressed at the ballot box is the greatest possible insult to democracy’ Interview with Jorge Santos 13.Jan.2023
Guatemala: ‘Our democracy is at risk in the hands of political-criminal networks’ Interview with Evelyn Recinos Contreras 04.Jul.2023

 

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"Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline." Credit: Desmond Brown/IPS

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

Planet Earth is drying up, relentlessly. Over three-quarters of all lands have become permanently drier in the last three decades. This is not jut a statistic but a stark scientific fact. But while such an ‘existential crisis’ affects nearly every region, guess where -and who- are the most hit? 

They are the 1.35 billion humans living in Asia’s drylands, that’s more than half the global total. And they are the 620 millions people who inhabit Africa’s drylands, e.g. nearly half of the continent’s population.

The above are some of the key findings of worldwide scientific research elaborated by the Bonn-based UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD).

 

A Human-Perpetrated Crime

The report by UNCCD Science-Policy Interface (SPI) — the UN body for assessing the science of land degradation and drought — points to human-caused climate change as the primary driver of this shift.

“Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation, transport, industry and land use changes warm the planet and other human activities warm the planet and affect rainfall, evaporation and plant life, creating the conditions that increase aridity.”

According to the world’s scientific community, aridity is considered one of the world’s five most important causes of land degradation (along with land erosion, salinization, organic carbon loss and vegetation degradation).

 

Drylands Expending at an Alarming Rate

The overarching trend, however, is clear: drylands are expanding, pushing ecosystems and societies to suffer from aridity’s life-threatening impacts.

The report names South Sudan and Tanzania as nations with the largest percentage of land transitioning to drylands, and China as the country experiencing the largest total area shifting from non-drylands into drylands.

 

Billions Living in Expanding Drylands

For the 2.3 billion people – well over 25% of the world’s population – living in the expanding drylands, this new normal requires lasting, adaptive solutions. Aridity-related land degradation, known as desertification, represents a dire threat to human well-being and ecological stability, warns the research.

“And as the planet continues to warm, report projections in the worst-case scenario suggest up to 5 billion people could live in drylands by the century’s end, grappling with depleted soils, dwindling water resources, and the diminishment or collapse of once-thriving ecosystems.”

 

A Billion Climate Forced Migrants

Nearly a decade ago, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated that the number of climate migrants and refugees could be estimated to reach one billion in the coming decades.

Now, according to the scientific findings, forced migration is one of aridity’s most visible consequences.

“As land becomes uninhabitable, families and entire communities facing water scarcity and agricultural collapse often have no choice but to abandon their homes, leading to social and political challenges worldwide.”

From the Middle East to Africa and South Asia, millions are already on the move—a trend set to intensify in coming decades.

“Without concerted efforts, billions face a future marked by hunger, displacement, and economic decline,” warns Nichole Barger, Chair, UNCCD Science-Policy Interface.

 

Total Impunity for Polluters

According to the European Union (EU) the Polluter Pays Principle (PPP) is a simple idea at the core of EU environmental policy: those responsible for environmental damage should pay to cover the costs.

“This applies to prevention of pollution, remediation, liability (criminal, civil and environmental liability) and the costs imposed on society of pollution that does happen.”

Such PPP has been too far away from being applied, rather: it has been systematically denied.

The most recent evidence of such denial is the outcome of the Baku, Azerbaijan’s climate summit (COP29).

 

A “Global Ponzi Scheme”

Perhaps one of the clearest evidence is what the world’s coalition to fight inequality: OXFAM International, stated at the end of the Baku meeting.

Responding to the COP29 climate finance agreement, in which rich countries agree to mobilize $300 billion a year to help Global South countries cope with warming temperatures and switch to renewable energy, Oxfam International’s Climate Change Policy Lead, Nafkote Dabi, said:

“The terrible verdict from the Baku climate talks shows that rich countries view the Global South as ultimately expendable, like pawns on a chessboard…

… The $300 billion so-called ‘deal’ that poorer countries have been bullied into accepting is unserious and dangerous —a soulless triumph for the rich, but a genuine disaster for our planet and communities who are being flooded, starved, and displaced today by climate breakdown….

And as for promises of future funding? They’re just as hollow as the deal itself.”

 

The real PPP: “The Poor Pays Principle”

“The money on the table is not only a pittance in comparison to what’s really needed –it’s not even real “money”, by and large, warns OXFAM.

“Rather, it’s a motley mix of loans and privatized investment –a global Ponzi scheme that the private equity vultures and public relations people will now exploit.”

The destruction of our planet is avoidable, but not with this shabby and dishonorable deal. The richest polluters need to wise up —and pay up.”

 

No way, rather…

Did you know that billionaires emit more carbon pollution in 90 minutes than the average person does in a lifetime.

And that superyachts and jets of Europe’s elite emit more carbon pollution in a week than the world’s poorest 1% emits in a lifetime

The scientific findings show that aridity impacts vast areas of the rich Western powers – those who most contaminate.

All the above goes far beyond semantics: when it comes to the polluters, they talk just about money. But when it comes to the polluted, it is about devastation, diseases… and death.