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IPBES’ nexus assessment concludes that environmental, social, and economic crises—such as biodiversity loss, water and food insecurity, health risks, and climate change—are all interconnected, and need interlinking solutions.

By Busani Bafana
WINDHOEK & BULAWAYO, Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

Biological diversity is on the decline worldwide, and current approaches to address its loss have been piecemeal and ineffective in tackling the crisis facing nature—this is despite estimates that over half of global GDP (USD 58 trillion of economic activity in 2023) is generated in sectors that are moderately to highly dependent on nature, a new report by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) finds.

The Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages Among Biodiversity, Water, Food, and Health—known as the Nexus Report—finds that biodiversity, water, food, health, and climate change are connected crises.

Recognizing and leveraging the connections between biodiversity, water, food, health, and climate change is the way to go about solving the crises, says the report approved at the 11th session of the IPBES Plenary being held in Namibia this week.

IPBES is a global science-policy body providing science evidence to decision-makers for people and nature.

The report, a product of three years of work by 165 leading international experts from 57 countries, finds that existing actions to address these crises fail to tackle the complexity of interlinked problems and result in inconsistent governance.

The front cover of the IPBES Nexus assessment report. Credit: IPBES

Integrated Solutions Needed

Prof. Paula Harrison (United Kingdom), co-chair of the assessment with Prof. Pamela McElwee (USA), highlighted that policymakers should decide and act beyond single-issue silos.

“Our current approaches to dealing with these crises have tended to be fragmented or siloed, and that’s led to inefficiencies and has often been counterproductive,” she says.

“If we try to address climate change, for example, by planting trees, we have to be really aware about what trees we are planting (to ensure they) are not actually making problems for biodiversity,” Harrison says, citing an often-implemented solution to reduce greenhouse gases.

Prof. Paula Harrison (United Kingdom), co-chair of the assessment report. Credit Kiara Worth/IPBES

 

Prof. Pamela McElwee (USA), co-chair of the assessment report. Credit: Kiara Worth/IPBES

Instead, the report offers response options, actions, or policies that can help advance governance and sustainable management of one or more elements of the nexus.

“What the report also offers is this suite of solutions. It stresses that we have over 70 response options available now that different actors can use in different context-dependent situations.”

The assessment also highlighted the unintended consequences when issues of nature are addressed in isolation.

For example, when the bat population in the United States declined due to a fungal disease known as white-nose syndrome, farmers increased their use of pesticides. This caused unintended health impacts, with an 8 percent rise in infant mortality reported in affected areas.

However, where a problem is tackled holistically, it can have positive impacts, as in bilharzia, a parasitic disease that affects more than 200 million people worldwide but is especially prevalent in Africa.

“Treated only as a health challenge—usually through medication—the problem often recurs as people are reinfected. An innovative project in rural Senegal took a different approach—reducing water pollution and removing invasive water plants to reduce the habitat for the snails that host the parasitic worms that carry the disease—resulting in a 32 percent reduction in infections in children, improved access to freshwater, and new revenue for the local communities,” says McElwee.

“The best way to bridge single-issue silos is through integrated and adaptive decision-making. ‘Nexus approaches’ offer policies and actions that are more coherent and coordinated—moving us towards the transformative change needed to meet our development and sustainability goals.”

The High Cost of Inaction

Warning of the high economic costs of inaction and the significant cost of biodiversity loss and climate change impacts, the report highlighted that biodiversity has been the loser in the tradeoffs where short-term gains are implemented and often neglect long-term sustainability.

“Policies informed by Nexus principles can create “win-win” solutions across sectors,” the report says.

According to the report, unaccounted-for costs of current approaches to tackling the multiple crises of biodiversity, water, health, food, and climate change are at least USD 10–25 trillion per year.

McElwee stressed that unaccounted-for costs, alongside direct public subsidies to economic activities worth about USD 1,7 trillion a year, have negative impacts on biodiversity. These subsidies have enhanced annual private sector financial flows estimated at USD 5.3 trillion, which are directly damaging to biodiversity.

“Delayed action on biodiversity goals, for example, could as much as double costs—also increasing the probability of irreplaceable losses such as species extinction,” McElwee warned, emphasizing that delayed action on climate change adds at least USD 500 billion per year in additional costs for meeting policy targets.

The Nexus report, building on previous IPBES reports that identified the most important direct drivers of biodiversity loss, states that indirect socioeconomic factors such as increasing waste, overconsumption, and population growth have intensified the direct drivers of biodiversity loss.

“Efforts of governments and other stakeholders have often failed to take into account indirect drivers and their impact on interactions between nexus elements because they remain fragmented, with many institutions working in isolation—often resulting in conflicting objectives, inefficiencies, and negative incentives, leading to unintended consequences,” says Harrison.

The IPBES Nexus assessment has recommended a shift to more integrated, inclusive, equitable, coordinated, and adaptive approaches as a solution to biodiversity loss.

Tapping Opportunities

The Nexus Report recommends a shift from the ‘business as usual’ approach to direct and indirect drivers of change, spelling doom for biodiversity, water quality, and human health. Furthermore, it warns that maximizing the outcomes for only one part of the nexus in isolation will result in negative outcomes for other nexus elements.

For example, a ‘food first’ approach prioritizes food production with positive benefits for nutritional health, arising from unsustainable intensification of production and increased per capita consumption. But this has negative impacts on biodiversity, water, and climate change.

“Future scenarios do exist that have positive outcomes for people and nature by providing co-benefits across the nexus elements,” Harrison says. “The future scenarios with the widest nexus benefits are those with actions that focus on sustainable production and consumption in combination with conserving and restoring ecosystems, reducing pollution, and mitigating and adapting to climate change.”

Noting that current governance structures and approaches are not responsive enough to meet the interconnected challenges from the accelerated speed and scale of environmental change and rising inequalities, the report has recommended a shift to more integrated, inclusive, equitable, coordinated, and adaptive approaches.

The work of IPBES provides the science and evidence to support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, and the Paris Agreement on climate change, says Harrison.

Inger Andersen, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), commented that the IPBES Nexus Assessment is the first comprehensive global assessment that looks at the interlinkages between crises and identifies solutions.

“Biodiversity is vital to the efforts to meet humanity’s growing need for food, feed, fiber, and fuel while protecting the planet for future generations,” Andersen says. “We need to produce more with less, through the Four Betters: better production, better nutrition, a better environment, and a better life—leaving no one behind.”

While Astrid Schomaker, Executive Secretary of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), added that actions to address global challenges affecting biodiversity, water, food, health, and the climate system are often taken without sufficient regard to the interlinkages between them. She says such actions result in shortcomings and adverse impacts on biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people.

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Damage of airstrikes on Beirut Southern area in the October escalation. Credit: UNICEF/ Dar al Mussawir - Ramzi Haidar

By Randa El Ozeir
TORONTO / BEIRUT , Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

Sixty-four days of unrelenting war machine by Israel against Lebanon put my entire beliefs and ethos to a painful test: my sincerity in promoting social justice, human rights, integrity, patriotism, spirituality and, philosophically speaking, universal human values of love, peace and non-violence.

Undergoing collective injustice, large-scale explosions targeting electronic portable devices, sophisticated weaponry attacks that disregard your homeland sovereignty and war crimes gives you the right to be angry. Intentional and malicious infringement entitles you to fight and militantly defend yourself and your country. Wouldn’t you have the right to avenge based on “eye-for-an-eye” response?

The answer is never straightforward, single dimensional or conclusive. A risk of cognitive dissonance is inevitable. An inner turmoil might emerge. How can we justify ourselves as anti-war and pro-peace while rooting for the “victory” of our assaulted homeland?

Killing in the battlefield is expected and commonly accepted. Since the dawn of human history, soldiers and fighters have been carrying out their duties towards their countries/nations when involved in power struggle, turf war, and land protection against invasion and amputation.

But murdering unarmed civilians and children is never justified under any given pretext, especially after humanity declared leaving back dark ages and medieval barbaric practices.

A Broken Moral Compass

Our today’s world is facing an ethical impasse that threatens our very unity and human cooperation. An entity like The United Nations is facing difficult existential questions. A universal broken moral compass brought a deep feeling of dislodged certainties, disappointment and helplessness.

In the midst of the war on Lebanon – some might argue it was simply an extension of the then ongoing armed conflict between Hezbollah and Israel that erupted on 8 October 2023 – I faced though emotions while trying to balance personal, ideals and peaceful views of the world and a dormant Lebanese identity overshadowed by a Canadian identity that carries its own problem whenever indigenous voices come out to remind us of colonial legacy.

Creation of Israel, as a colonial state, is a fresh memory due to continual war crimes against indigenous people, Palestinians in this case. What still unfolds in Gaza is no exception in practice, although it is exceeding by far anything the modern world has seen after World War II (WWII).

“The Israeli occupation is a moral crime, one that has been all but covered by the West”, writes the American author, journalist and activist, Ta-Nehisi Coates, in his recent book “The Message”.

Complexities of extreme alliances, divisions and political allegiance shifts across the Middle East throughout its long history are undeniable, and the region earned a reputation of uncertainty, volatility and animosity.

Our homeland lays on the intersection of being the absolute, tangible reality of our existence’s centre and symbolizing the aspiration and the transcendent ideation of belonging.

Hollow Words Facing Mass Destruction

During the last blood-shed and destructive offensive of Israel against Lebanon, patriotism took hold of my daily life. I adopted a tunnel vision, focused solely on that nightmarish crisis.

An incessant wave of agonising waiting and deep sadness engulfed my reality to the point of living an almost out-of-body experience. Words became hollow, fell short of describing the heart’s turmoil with the mass destruction and conceited attitude of the assaulting country.

Every waking hour was dedicated to following the news, hysterically checking on my family there, as assumingly was the Lebanese Diaspora’s state.

Patriotism could feel magnified when we are abroad. As much as I longed to be fully included in the situation, I was not there to live the real fear of the direct physical danger, the Israeli’s digital rights violations and the misleading and inadequate warnings for civilians.

Lebanese people know inside-out what war means. We recognize its ugly face. We lived through many episodes, dating back to 1860. We witnessed colonial, civil, proxy and resistance wars.

Resistance in Lebanon opposing Zionism and West imperialism has been deeply ingrained in the country’s core story with different names and players depending on the political and military circumstances. Hezbollah appeared as a resistance and military movement during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 that killed 14,000 Lebanese and Palestinians, stayed the course throughout the 18-year Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon that sustained significant human wounds – including the Qana Massacre in April 1996-, liberated the occupied land in 2000 and emerged triumphant from 2006 Israeli war.

Retracing the ascent of Hezbollah, its affiliation with Iran, the dominant role it has been playing on the Lebanese political stage and its regional size is beyond my scope of expertise. Fighting for the ousted Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad was its dramatic moral fall. However, it would be unfair to completely strip this party of its essential component, the national resistance.

Although I have never been ideologically close to Hezbollah, I was inundated with a poignant sorrow when Hassan Nasrallah, the party’s third secretary general, was assassinated in one of the heaviest Israeli airstrikes. He was loosely likened to Che Guevara in many Arab minds and embodied activism and identification with social justice. His assassination brought back vividly my adolescence and early adulthood opinions and political leanings.

Remnants of sectarian divisions and clashes surface at each unstable occasion, proving how religion impacts politics and making the country vulnerable to an imminent internal conflict. Not this time! Different Lebanese parties and religious sects endeavored to protect civil peace and defeated plan(s) to drive a wedge between the country’s components. Occasionally, as a journalist, it felt frustrating to see some national media outlets’ approach in adopting repeatedly implicit and explicit impure key messages.

Geography is destiny. Lebanon, the 10452 km2, will always have a border with Israel. We are very optimistic the 27-November-2004 ceasefire agreement, that ended a 13-months conflict, will hold in the face of the frequent Israeli violations until the UN Security Council resolution 1701 gets fully re-implemented.

Randa El Ozeir, is a Canadian-Lebanese journalist who writes on health issues, women’s rights and social justice.

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Oxfam activists wearing masks of the leaders of the 2017 G7 summit. Credit: Picture Alliance/Pacific Press, Antonio Melita via Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES)
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In 2016, US President Barack Obama joined the Paris Agreement in a moment of seemingly decisive climate leadership. Barely a year later, President Trump withdrew, citing economic pressures and perceived disadvantages to American industry. As Trump’s re-election threatens to derail climate diplomacy once again, the Global South is done waiting for stable leadership from wealthier powers.

By Kamo Sende and Idasemiebi Idaminabo
ABERDEEN, Scotland, Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

The rhythmic swing of American climate policy has taken another dramatic turn. With Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency in mid-January next year, the international climate community will find itself bracing for what many fear will be another American exodus from the Paris Agreement.

This development, more than just another chapter in US political volatility, threatens to fundamentally reshape the global climate dialogue and potentially fracture an already fragile international consensus.

The story began hopefully in 2016 when the United States, under President Barack Obama, joined the Paris Agreement in a moment of seemingly decisive climate leadership. Yet, barely a year later, Trump withdrew, citing economic pressures and perceived disadvantages to American industry.

His successor, Joe Biden, made rejoining the agreement his first presidential act in 2021, attempting to restore American credibility in global climate efforts. Now, with Trump’s return to power, the international community watches with a mixture of resignation and concern as history appears poised to repeat itself.

For nations of the Global South, this pattern of engagement and disengagement reveals a stark truth about the climate conversation. What was once whispered in diplomatic corridors is now openly discussed in international forums: climate action for wealthy nations appears to be a luxury that can be discarded when economically inconvenient, while for developing nations it remains a matter of survival.

Why should a nation struggling to industrialise accept binding emissions targets when wealthy nations treat such commitments as optional?

In the bustling streets of Lagos, the flooded slums of Jakarta, and the drought-stricken farms of Honduras and Kenya, the American policy pendulum would predictably be viewed not just with frustration but with a deepening sense of betrayal.

These nations, contributing least to global emissions but suffering their worst effects, are watching as the world’s second-largest emitter treats climate commitments like reversible political decisions rather than existential imperatives.

If the pendulum were to swing again in January 2025, the impact on COP30 would be seismic, as conversations would inevitably tilt toward addressing this fundamental crisis of confidence. Developing nations, already sceptical of Western commitment to climate action, would have concrete evidence that even the most basic climate agreements can be subordinated to domestic political winds.

This reality would likely reshape negotiating positions fundamentally. After all, why should a nation struggling to industrialise accept binding emissions targets when wealthy nations treat such commitments as optional?

The economic argument that typically accompanies US withdrawal – that climate agreements disadvantage American workers and industry – rings particularly hollow in the Global South. These nations watch as their agricultural sectors collapse under changing weather patterns, their coastal cities face existential threats from rising seas, and their populations grapple with climate-induced displacement. For them, the economic costs of climate change aren’t future projections but present-day realities.

A turning point?

The looming reversal in American climate policy may well mark a turning point in global climate diplomacy, where COP30 risks becoming a parlour of academics rather than a forum for serious climate action. Developing nations are increasingly looking to forge their own path, seeking climate resilience strategies that don’t depend on the unreliable support of wealthy nations.

China’s growing influence in climate diplomacy, particularly in the Global South, gains additional momentum with each American reversal — all of this seems to rest on which way the Trump administration will go. The Trump presidency could decide the future of climate negotiations.

The international community now faces a critical question: how to build climate action frameworks that can withstand political volatility in key nations?

The answer may lie in decentralised cooperation, where cities, regions and non-state actors forge direct partnerships across borders. Already, networks of cities from both developed and developing nations are creating climate action partnerships that bypass national governments entirely.

The era of taking Western climate leadership for granted is over.

Yet, the fundamental issue remains unresolved. The original promise of the Paris Agreement was not just about emissions targets but about shared responsibility and trust between nations. The 2017 US withdrawal eroded this foundation, transforming what was meant to be a unified global response to climate change into an increasingly fractured and uncertain effort — if it happens again, this trust would be further eroded.

For the Global South, this pattern will confirm their deepest suspicions: that in the halls of power in developed nations, climate action remains fundamentally an economic conversation dressed in environmental rhetoric — indeed, echoing a pattern that has become visible since the General Agreement on Trade and Tariff (GATT) was established in 1947.

As climate impacts intensify and the window for effective action narrows, this reality threatens not just the future of climate cooperation but the very premise of global environmental governance.

The path forward remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the era of taking Western climate leadership for granted is over. The Global South, faced with existential climate threats, can no longer afford to pin its hopes on the shifting political winds of wealthy nations.

The question now is not whether international climate action will continue, but what form it will take in a world where the most powerful nations’ commitments prove as changeable as the weather they’re supposedly trying to protect.

Kamo Sende is a Doctoral Researcher in Agri-Trade Law and Policy at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, Scotland. His work focuses on the intersection of agriculture, trade policy and climate change. Idasemiebi Idaminabo is a Doctoral Researcher in Climate Change Laws and Human Rights at Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Source: International Politics and Society is published by the Global and European Policy Unit of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin.

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COP16 in Riyadh launched a drought resilience initiative, which also saw contributions of over USD 12 billion for land restoration and drought resilience. Credit: IISD/ENB

By Stella Paul
RIYADH & HYDERABAD, Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

The 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD COP 16) concluded early hours of Saturday with a renewed focus on building drought resilience globally. However, the COP also failed to agree on bringing a legally binding drought protocol. Like the biodiversity and climate change COPs held earlier in the year, COP16 also failed to finish in time and ended by postponing several key decisions to COP17 scheduled to be held in 2026.

The COP started on December 2 in Riyadh, under the presidency of Saudi Arabia. On Saturday, in a press statement, Osama Faqeeha, Deputy Minister for Environment, Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture, and Advisor to the UNCCD COP16 Presidency, claimed that the conference was a resounding success because it had attracted the largest number of participants till date, representing diverse sectors.

“The Riyadh Action Agenda has already helped galvanize state and non-state actors around the world. However, COP16 in Riyadh is just the beginning of its impact, and Saudi Arabia’s UNCCD COP16 Presidency will continue to engage with everyone, from the investment community, NGOs and scientists to Indigenous Peoples and farmers, to maximize its lasting global legacy,” he said.

One of the biggest success stories scripted in Riyadh was the launch of a drought resilience initiative, which also saw contributions of over USD 12 billion for land restoration and drought resilience. Launching the initiative on the first day of the COP, Saudi Arabia announced it was contributing USD 150 million for its operationalization. The rest of the fund was pledged by the Arab Coordination Group, which has 22 member countries, including the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. The initiative would aim to support 80 of the world’s most vulnerable countries to increase their capacity to combat the effects of drought and build their drought resilience.

“The Riyadh Global Drought Resilience Partnership will work to deliver a transformative shift in how drought is tackled around the world. Harnessing the collective impact of major global institutions will move drought management beyond reactive crisis response through enhancing early warning systems, financing, vulnerability assessments, and drought risk mitigation. This stands to be a landmark moment for combating international drought, and we are calling on countries, companies, organizations, scientists, NGOs, financial institutions and communities to join this pivotal partnership,” Faqeeha said.

AI For Combating Drought

As part of the Riyadh Action Agenda, Saudi Arabia’ also launched the International Drought Resilience Observatory (IDRO). This is the first artificial intelligence-driven global platform that will help countries assess and improve their ability to cope with more severe droughts. This innovative tool is an initiative of the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA).

Saudi Arabia also announced the launch of an international sand and dust storm monitoring initiative. This effort, part of a regional early warning system, aims to complement existing efforts overseen by the World Meteorological Organization. Based in Jeddah, the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System (SDS-WAS) increases the number of global World Meteorological Organization-affiliated nodes to four. Saudi Arabia also pledged $10 million in funding over the next five years to enhance early warning systems in countries currently unable to monitor for sand and dust storms.

However, despite their best efforts, the COP16 could not bring all negotiators to agree on its proposal of creating a legally binding treaty for action on drought. The protocol, if agreed upon, could have been a huge step forward, having the world’s first legally binding global treaty on drought, land degradation and desertification, equivalent to the UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement and the Global Biodiversity Framework.

Paving Greater Participation of Youths and IPLCs

Among the other decisions taken at the COP16 is the creation of a Youth Caucus and an Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities Caucus. Though a caucus within the COP has an advisory role without any voting power, it can help broaden the participation of the Indigenous people and provide an opportunity to them for lobbying for language concerning Indigenous issues in the future negotiation texts.

Reacting to the development, Jennifier Corpuz, leader of the International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity (IIFB), an umbrella organization of Indigenous Peoples and local communities from seven global regions, said that it was a decision that had been long overdue.

“The decision by the UNCCD to support the development of a Terms of Reference for an Indigenous Peoples Caucus and a local communities caucus is a great development for enhancing rights-holder engagement in the work of the UNCCD. It is the last Rio Convention to support the establishment of an IP Caucus and the first to explicitly support a specific local community Caucus, so it is about time, even long overdue. The hope is that the new UNCCD IP and LC caucuses learn from the nest practices and enhanced participation arrangements established in the other Rio Conventions and avoid the mistakes,” Corpuz told IPS News.

UN Warns Against Business-As-Usual Approach

Meanwhile, throughout COP16 in Riyadh, the UNCCD released several major publications highlighting the urgency of tackling land degradation, desertification and drought. The UNCCD’s financial risk assessment flagged that presently there is a $278 billion annual shortfall in funding for land restoration and drought resilience and emphasized the urgent need for private sector engagement.

The UNCCD also issued a landmark report into the growing global expansion of drylands, finding three-quarters of the Earth’s land became permanently drier over the last three decades. In addition, the rate of land degradation has rapidly increased. As a result, there are now 1.6 billion hectares of degraded land instead of 1 billion hectares in 2015. This means the convention’s flagship program, Land Degradation Neutrality, which aims to restore all degraded land by 2023, now also urgently needs a greater level of efforts as there is now half a billion more hectares to be restored. If this was to be achieved, the parties must shun their business-as-usual approach and put greater focus on land restoration, said Ibrahim Thiaw, the Executive Secretary of UNCCD.

“Land Degradation Neutrality is an ambition that was adopted in 2015 based on the science and it is still valid. If we manage to achieve it as it was conceived in 2015, that is a big step forward. Unfortunately, with more recent studies and data, we realized that we need to restore even more land by 2030 than it was envisaged in 2015. It doesn’t change or diminish the importance of the decision made in 2015. Because now we have updated science, we know that we need to restore 1.5 billion hectares of land instead of 1 billion hectares by 2030 in order to have equilibrium in the world. So basically, we have science to tell the decision-makers of the world that business as usual does not work,” Thiaw told IPS News.

The next UNCCD COP will be held in 2026 under the presidency of the Government of Mongolia. With the most ambitious of the decision—a global drought protocol—left unreached, onus is now on the UN to build a consensus among parties on a global drought agreement before they convene at COP17.

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By Jomo Kwame Sundaram
KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia, Dec 17 2024 (IPS)

The new geopolitics after the first Cold War undermines peace, sustainability, and human development. Hegemonic priorities continue to threaten humanity’s well-being and prospects for progress.

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

End of first Cold War
The end of the first Cold War has been interpreted in various ways, most commonly as a US triumph. Francis Fukuyama famously proclaimed the ‘end of history’ with the victory of capitalism and liberal democracy.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union and allied regimes, the US seemed unchallenged and unchallengeable in the new ‘unipolar’ world. The influential US journal Foreign Affairs termed ensuing US foreign policy ‘sovereigntist’.

But the new order also triggered fresh discontent. Caricaturing cultural differences, Samuel Huntington blamed a ‘clash of civilisations’. His contrived cultural categories serve a new ‘divide-and-rule’ strategy.

Today’s geopolitics often associates geographic and cultural differences with supposed ideological, systemic and other political divides. Such purported fault lines have also fed ‘identity politics’.

The new Cold War is hot and bloody in parts of the world, sometimes spreading quickly. As bellicosity is increasingly normalised, hostilities have grown dangerously.

Economic liberalisation, including globalisation, has been unevenly reversed since the turn of the century. Meanwhile, financialization has undermined the real economy, especially industry.

The G20 finance ministers, representing the world’s twenty largest economies, including several from the Global South, began meeting after the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

The G20 began meeting at the heads of government level following the 2008 global financial crisis, which was seen as a G7 failure. However, the G20’s relevance has declined again as the North reasserted G7 centrality with the new Cold War.

NATO rules
The ostensible raison d’être of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has gone with the end of the first Cold War and the Soviet Union.

The faces of Western powers have also changed. For example, the G5 grew to become the G7 in 1976. US infatuation with the post-Soviet Russia of Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin even brought it into the G8 for some years!

Following the illegal US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the sovereigntist Wolfowitz doctrine of 2007 redefined its foreign policy priorities to strengthen NATO and start a new Cold War. NATO mobilisation of Europe – behind the US against Russia – now supports Israel targeting China, Iran and others.

Violating the UN Charter, the 2022 Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine united and strengthened NATO and Europe behind the US. Despite earlier tensions across the north Atlantic, Europe rallied behind Biden against Russia despite its high costs.

International law has also not stopped NATO expansion east to the Russian border. The US unilaterally defines new international norms, often ignoring others, even allies. But Trump’s re-election has raised ‘centrist’ European apprehensions.

Developing countries were often forced to take sides in the first Cold War, ostensibly waged on political and ideological grounds. With mixed economies now ubiquitous, the new Cold War is certainly not over capitalism.

Instead, rivalrous capitalist variants shape the new geoeconomics as state variations underlie geopolitics. Authoritarianism, communist parties and other liberal dirty words are often invoked for effect.

New Europe
Despite her controversial track record during her first term as the European Commission (EC) president, Ursula von der Leyen is now more powerful and belligerent in her second term.

She quickly replaced Joseph Borrell, her previous EC Vice President and High Representative in charge of international relations. Borrell described Europe as a garden that the Global South, the surrounding jungle, wants to invade.

For Borrell, Europe cannot wait for the jungle to invade. Instead, it must pre-emptively attack the jungle to contain the threat. Since the first Cold War, NATO has made more, mainly illegal military interventions, increasingly outside Europe!

The US, UK, German, French and Australian navies are now in the South China Sea despite the 1973 ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) commitment to a ZOPFAN (zone of peace, freedom and neutrality) and no request from any government in the region.

Cold War nostalgia
The first Cold War also saw bloody wars involving alleged ‘proxies’ in southwestern Africa, Central America, and elsewhere. Yet, despite often severe Cold War hostilities, there were also rare instances of cooperation.

In 1979, the Soviet Union challenged the US to eradicate smallpox within a decade. US President Jimmy Carter accepted the challenge. In less than ten years, smallpox was eradicated worldwide, underscoring the benefits of cooperation.

Official development assistance (ODA) currently amounts to around 0.3% of rich countries’ national incomes. This is less than half the 0.7% promised by wealthy nations at the UN in 1970.

The end of the first Cold War led to ODA cuts. Levels now are below those after Thatcher and Reagan were in power in the 1980s. Trump’s views and famed ‘transactional approach’ to international relations are expected to cut aid further.

The economic case against the second Cold War is clear. Instead of devoting more to sustainable development, scarce resources go to military spending and related ‘strategic’ priorities.

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By Anis Chowdhury
SYDNEY, Dec 16 2024 (IPS)

This piece is not about the crisis or the chaos that the country is now facing after successfully toppling the autocratic regime of Sheikh Hasina. Rather, it is about the crisis of confidence and social capital or trust — interlinked, nonetheless.

Anis Chowdhury

The thread that binds a nation together is trust or social capital. There could be many factors that contribute to social capital, but one that stands out is equity or fairness. Social capital or trust is low in a country where income and wealth gaps are high, and the general people feel unfairly treated or deprived.

The fallen autocratic regime prided itself on rapid economic growth, averaging approximately 6 per cent a year. However, the regime’s kleptocratic system of ruling by plunder and favour to its cronies has contributed to accelerated wealth and income gaps as well as relative deprivation; thus, it has caused fissures in the social fabric.

Rising relative deprivation

Income and wealth gaps have yawned wide, turning a reasonably equitable society at the time of independence into one of the most unequal societies. The Gini coefficient, a common measure of income inequality, has increased from 0.36 in 1973 to 0.499 in 2022, according to the latest (2022) Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.

The Gini coefficient was 0.39 in 1990–1991, marginally above the 1973 value (0.36), accelerating to 0.46 in 2010. Income inequality in Bangladesh has deepened since 2016. The 2022 survey reveals that about 30 per cent of the income generated in the country is concentrated within the top 5 per cent of household. This proportion was 27.82 per cent in the 2016 Household Income and Expenditure Survey.

Furthermore, the top 10 per cent of the wealthiest households in Bangladesh hold about 41 per cent of total income. This proportion was about 38 per cent in 2016. Concurrently, the income share for the bottom 50 per cent of households decreased to about 19 per cent in 2022 from 20.23 per cent in 2016.

Disturbingly, there has been a secular transfer of income from the lowest quintile of the households to the highest quintile. The average annual loss of the bottom 1st quintile’s share in the national income has been -0.71 per cent as opposed to the average annual gain of 0.46 per cent for the highest (top) quintile during 1973–2010. The middle-class also lost; income shares of 2nd, 3rd and 4th quintiles declined since 1973.

This does not augur well for our democracy. Nor can we celebrate this development in a country where one of the founding principles is socialism.

Suppression of democracy driving growing disparities

PROFESSOR MG Quibria of Morgan State University and ADB’s former Senior Advisor pointed out, ‘possession of political capital opens up myriad economic opportunities, including preferential access to finance and business, restructuring and loan default options, lucrative employment, access to privileged information, tax evasion or even outright corruption’.

The link between corruption and economic growth could be debated, but it is a method of plunder and primitive capital accumulation by the lumpen bourgeoisie that exacerbates inequality of wealth.

An environment conducive to unchecked corruption emerges when democracy is suppressed and the institutions that ensure accountability, transparency and the separation of powers between various branches of the government are weakened. Where democratic institutions are weak, political capital is a powerful instrument for advancing one’s economic and social position.

Unfortunately, suppression of democracy in Bangladesh began as soon as it emerged as an independent nation with the rigging of its first parliamentary elections in 1973. It is ironic that a country, where democracy is one of its founding principles, turned into a one-party state in 1975 within four years of its independence, shutting down most of the news media and allowing only state-run ones.

Sadly, instead of trust — built through accountability and transparency — election manipulations became the norm for all political parties to gain power and then retain it. Therefore, each successive government became more repressive, more lacking in accountability and more vigorous in election rigging.

However, such regimes suffer from legitimacy deficits — both legal and moral; they can only survive by allowing corruption and distributing favour. Thus, a vicious circle develops — a regime that resorts to more election manipulations becomes more beholden to its cronies, allowing them to plunder the state.

Undoubtedly, this process reached its zenith during Sheikh Hasina’s rule. Unchecked corruption, tax evasions and financial crimes such as defrauding bank loans enabled Bangladesh to become the global leader in wealth growth during 2010–2019. New York-based research firm Wealth-X, reported a remarkable 14.3 per cent annual increase in the number of individuals with a net worth exceeding $5 million, surpassing Vietnam, which ranked second with a 13.2 per cent growth rate.

Neoliberalism and the demise of democracy

BANGLADESH is not alone in witnessing widening income and wealth gaps and consequently democratic backslides. This is a global phenomenon coincided with the embrace of the neoliberal economic philosophy of privatisation, liberalisation, deregulation and globalisation dictated by the interests of the corporate power.

In the process of multinational corporations-driven globalisation, the civil society simply became apolitical NGOs, happy to receive crumbs from the donors to engage in so-called development activities. Citizens became ‘stake-holders’ together with the large corporations and donors, instead of ‘right-holders’.

Bereft of rights and no longer an end itself of development, citizens are now ‘human resources’, an epitaph cleverly designed to hide that they are simply fodder for the profit machines of corporations. In a deregulated economy, workers are dehumanised, constrained to socialise and participate in political activities.

Should one be surprised in the falling share of wages in the national income, stagnating or falling real wages and tragedies like the ‘Rana Plaza incident’?

Under the corporate globalisation, schools and universities — both public and private — are no longer places of learning where youths are transformed into enlightened citizens and agents of change, and where visionary future social-political leaders are produced. They are simply factories for mass-producing so-called ‘job-ready’ certificate or diploma holders, apathetic to social, economic and political issues.

An additional boost to accelerating inequality in Bangladesh comes from a three-stream education system (Bengali-medium national curriculum, traditional religious curriculum and English-medium overseas curriculum). It perpetuates inter-generational inequality.

Which way out?

ONE can get some cue in AK Sen’s observation that ‘a country becomes fit through democracy,’ and democracy versus development is a false dichotomy. Sen defines development as freedom — freedom from hunger and poverty; freedom from fear and persecution; and freedom to express, associate and participate. In sum, freedom to enhance one’s capabilities to attain one’s full potential as a human being.

Sen insists that political and civil rights are ends in themselves. Their denial cannot be acceptable even if it promotes economic growth and some well-being as such a development path is not sustainable. Suppression of political and civil rights results in growing income and wealth inequalities, where obnoxious, luxurious living by the few coexists with a large populous struggling to survive. This fuels a sense of relative deprivation contributing to violent social conflict.

Therefore, the first step is strengthening democratic institutions or consolidation of democracy. This requires the depoliticisation of administration and civic associations.

There exists a large volume of research findings showing that the politicisation of administration and the organisation of civic associations along party lines not only boost corruption but also accelerate social cleavage.

Civic associations where members hold different political views help build trust among political parties. They can agree on critical national issues while still disagreeing on details.

A depoliticised public administration serves a wider citizenry. In the process, the government, even though led by the winning party, governs for all and becomes inclusive, thus strengthening the trust between the state and the governed.

As for the political parties, they need to practise democracy themselves. That is, all party posts should be open for contest and there should be transparent rules for elections. As the primary organisational vehicles of electoral democracy, political parties are themselves judged in terms of their democratic character.

The most engaging models of internal party democracy are inclusive, participatory, deliberative and accountable and include fair distribution of power. It involves non-discriminatory open memberships and the inclusion of all party members in decision-making processes, leadership selection, policy formulation, as well as ensuring accountability of party leadership to its members. In short, internal rules of political parties should be guided by inclusiveness, clarity, transparency, accountability and independence. Their interaction with society should be based on dialogue, interdependence and cooperation.

In the economic arena, there is an urgency for reorienting to pursue strategies for growth with equity. This is an imperative if Bangladesh is serious about its state principle of socialism. The state has to recapture its lost leverage over the corporate sector to protect the interest of the wider community and to ensure decent jobs and a fair living wage.

It has to give priority to citizens’ well-being over balancing the budget and be bold enough to use its fiscal power to redistribute the growing wealth by using progressive taxation and widening public provisions of basic services, such as healthcare, education, housing and universal social protection. There is ample evidence of a close negative association between the tax-GDP ratio and inequality as well as between public social expenditure and inequality, clearly indicating the redistributive role of the government.

State actions are needed to smoothen the rough edges of the market forces that manifest in exclusion and inequality, which are found to fuel social and political unrest harming growth in the long run. Equity of access, opportunities and outcomes are fundamental aspects of socialism. They enhance both economic and political freedom, essential for rights-based development that empowers citizens and expands their capabilities.

Weakened democratic institutions and rising inequality create a vicious circle that leads to diminished trust — among citizens and between the state and citizens — which chips away social capital, the glue that binds society.

Bangladesh has to find the solution to its woes in its founding principles — a democratic polity and a socialist economic construct. Both are critical in rebuilding trust and social capital, needed to overcome the current national crisis.

Anis Chowdhury is emeritus professor, Western Sydney University, Australia. He held senior United Nations positions (economic and Social affairs) in New York and Bangkok.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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A scientist analyses a sapling in a lab.

By Ousmane Badiane
DAKAR, Senegal, Dec 16 2024 (IPS)

From increased pests and diseases to lower crop yields and extreme weather events, the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture in Africa cannot be overstated.

Climate shocks will present major roadblocks to the continent’s rapidly growing population, especially if global temperatures remain on their upward trajectory. Urgent and effective action is therefore needed to mitigate these threats to food security and livelihoods.

Despite the growing stresses on Africa’s agrifood systems, the bioeconomy offers opportunities to improve food security, tackle climate change, and support development goals. The solution lies in sustainably leveraging Africa’s natural resources.

While the continent is highly vulnerable to climate change, its rich biodiversity offers tangible opportunities to address multiple challenges simultaneously. New evidence shows that Africa can leverage a much broader and more systemic approach to addressing the impacts of climate change on agrifood systems and beyond through its bioeconomy.

Characterized by sustainable production and use of biological resources to create innovative products, processes, and services for all economic sectors, bioeconomy involves the use of scientific knowledge to add social and economic value to biological resources in an environmentally sustainable way.

The latest ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) makes a case for converging the two pressing agendas of climate change and the bioeconomy toward building resilient agrifood systems in Africa. Harnessing Africa’s ecological wealth and investing in the continent’s bioeconomy can yield multiple development benefits across various sectors while contributing to climate resilience, sustainable agriculture, and economic growth.

Science and technology offer a viable pathway for the development of bioeconomy solutions. African countries will benefit from establishing robust science, research, and technology systems to leverage opportunities offered by the bioeconomy. Research initiatives to develop climate-resilient tools for farmers can go a long way in protecting food security and livelihoods from climate shocks.

A successful example is the redesign of Uganda’s research system through the National Agricultural Advisory Services program. This program focused on rebuilding relationships across the country’s agrifood system value chain, from the farm level all the way to regional chiefs, district coordinators, and private or semi-private service delivery companies.

Through this approach, farmers defined demand and had their research and innovation needs addressed through a national coordination network combined with the private sector. This has improved the availability and quality of advisory services provided to farmers and promoted the adoption and use of modern production technologies and practices.

Furthermore, Africa’s bioeconomy can create rural and agriculture-adjacent jobs for its youthful population while enabling economic diversification and growth. Leveraging Africa’s vast untapped potential will open up new industries and value chains that can drive job creation and livelihoods across the continent, especially for rural youth and other marginalized groups.

Emerging innovations like biological waste conversion using black soldier flies (BSF), and earthworms have opened up new markets and, consequently, new job opportunities. At the same time, these circular solutions benefit natural ecosystems, in turn supporting better conditions for crop and livestock production systems.

Domestic and cross-border trade also plays a vital role in facilitating economic growth through the bioeconomy. Increasing food demand can drive specialization and intensification of the agrifood sector and bioeconomy, ultimately incentivizing productivity, supply, and income increases. Existing policy tools such as the AfCFTA can reduce trade barriers across the continent’s bioeconomy and deliver better economic outcomes.

Recent research argues for a nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy that can be adopted to drive food security and nutrition outcomes while tackling waste management. For example, converting biowaste to vermicompost, biofertilizers, and biopesticides can reduce the costs and environmental burdens of synthetic chemicals while simultaneously improving agricultural productivity and food availability.

Strengthening the bioscience environment across sectors is critical. Under the Advanced Agriculture and Food cluster, South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) aims to increase the output of high-value foods, cosmetics, nutraceuticals, and traditional African medical products. The Biomanufacturing Industry Development Centre (BIDC) has advanced over 100 bioproducts in cosmetics, nutrition, and biotechnology. A key success story from this case study is VIDA Pharmaceuticals, which produces accessible and affordable nutritious food products from baobab and maize.

In the wake of COP29, channeling more climate finance toward Africa’s bioeconomy is critical. Increasing investments in innovative financing models such as blended finance – which leverages concessional capital from public and philanthropic sources to de-risk private investments – can support climate goals in Africa’s agrifood systems.

There is political momentum for Africa’s converging climate change and bioeconomy agendas. South Africa was the first African country to develop a dedicated bioeconomy strategy in 2013, followed by Namibia, which published its national bioeconomy strategy in 2024. The East African Community (EAC) is the first regional economic bloc to develop a dedicated regional bioeconomy strategy in 2022.

The global shift toward sustainability and the green economy presents new opportunities for Africa to position itself as a leader in the bioeconomy. Policy action to embrace an African bioeconomy would entail the ability to deploy tailored and contextualized interventions to tackle climate change, biodiversity loss, and food insecurity while advancing sustainable growth.

Increased investments in Africa’s resilience and green growth agendas from the continent’s leaders, private sectors, and other stakeholders are the first steps towards realizing this potential. The promise of a robust bioeconomy offers a viable growth and development pathway that can contribute to lower carbon emissions, better preservation of biodiversity, and greater prospects for decent jobs and livelihoods.

Dr. Ousmane Badiane, Executive Chairperson, AKADEMIYA2063

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Credit: Antonio Jaén Osuna

By Eric O'Flynn
DUBLIN, Ireland, Dec 16 2024 (IPS)

For decades, preventable deaths, lifelong disabilities, and disfigurements presented devastating consequences for over 90% of the population in Africa, where surgical care remains largely out of reach.

Simple, affordable procedures like skin grafts for burns, bone fracture repair, and hernia procedures routinely go untreated, causing needless suffering and often driving families into abject poverty due to loss of livelihood.

Consider a young man in his 20s in rural Zambia, electrocuted by a low-hanging power cable while riding on the back of a lorry, whose exposed skull and severely damaged scalp were repaired during a 16-hour procedure, allowing him to make a full recovery; a 19-year-old woman with a deep-seated tumor that caused her to lose her sight and whose surgery was made possible by a resourceful clinician using magnifying glasses in the absence of a microscope, removing the tumor in full and allowing her to regain her vision; a 32-year-old mother of two in rural Zambia, run over by a truck and left with devastating injuries who underwent eight months of intensive treatment and rehabilitation putting her on a path to recovery.

Cases like these are the everyday reality faced by surgeons Dr. Peter Mushenya from Zambia and Dr. Nathalie Umugwaneza from Rwanda, both recent graduates of the College of Surgeons of East, Central, and Southern Africa (COSECSA), which celebrates its 25th anniversary this December.

Since its founding, COSECSA has grown from graduating just six surgeons in 2010 to an impressive 152 in 2023. This growth reflects the organization’s commitment to equipping surgeons with the skills to meet the urgent needs of communities across the region. Over the course of their careers, COSECSA-trained surgeons are projected to perform nearly 9.5 million surgeries, a stunning demonstration of the impact of successful surgical training programmes.

Qualified just a year, Dr Mushenya is a specialist neurosurgeon working at Maxcare hospital in Lusaka, where patients often travel over 1000 kilometres to receive care from the only neurosurgical team in the country.

On average, he and his team perform 70 surgeries a month. He describes challenges such as a shortage of surgical supplies, long waiting lists and needless complications arising from untreated simple infections that worsen due to a delay in care. Common, he explains, are untreated coughs in children that escalate into meningitis and later abnormal swelling of the head due to excess fluid on the brain.

“Many patients are two years down the line without a CT scan and come to us in critical condition in need of urgent surgical attention. In many cases, we often have to use our own money to buy drills, sutures, shunts – not just the expensive equipment like microscopes, but even the little things are not there. Instead, we rely on well-wishers. A lot of the conditions we see are simple to treat, yet we don’t get the support we need,” says Dr Mushenya.

It is an all too familiar scene in Rwanda, according to Dr. Umugwaneza, who counts road traffic accidents and falls among her most common surgeries, “Patients often wait up to six months for surgeries that are not considered acute, resulting in improperly consolidated fractures that cause life-long disability.” She emphasizes the need to strengthen the entire surgical system, from training surgeons to strengthening entire surgical teams across a range of disciplines from nurses to anesthetists.

The situation experienced in Zambia and Rwanda matches the broader challenges faced in the region. In many countries of the Global South, the surgeon-to-patient ratio is alarmingly low, with just one trained surgeon for every 2.5 million people. This neglect persists even though surgically treatable conditions cause more deaths and disabilities than AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria combined.

Despite a 2015 World Health Assembly (WHA) resolution urging the inclusion of global surgery within primary healthcare as a critical component of Universal Health Coverage (UHC), surgical care remains strikingly absent from policymakers’ agendas.

This lack of priority has contributed to minimal progress in strengthening emergency and essential surgical and anesthesia services. As a result, 16 million people worldwide die annually from conditions that could be treated surgically.

In response to the urgent demand for surgical care, COSECSA, supported by Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland has trained 910 surgeons through its intensive five-year programme, achieving this at an astonishingly low cost of just $600 per surgeon per year. Prof. Juan Carlos Puyana, Chair of Global Surgery at RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences in Dublin, has witnessed firsthand the impact of the programme and is a passionate advocate for further investment in global surgery.

An experienced surgeon himself, he worked for decades in low resource settings, and emphasises the scalability and cost-effectiveness of the initiative, underlining the importance of changing perceptions about surgical care: “There’s a misconception that surgical care is prohibitively expensive, but simple procedures don’t require large investments in infrastructure and expensive equipment.

Our approach is grounded in evidence that safe surgery is not an expense but a critical investment in health infrastructure and in promoting economic development.”

Dr Puyana’s views are echoed in the findings of the 2015 Lancet Commission on Global Surgery, which underscored that billions of people lack access to safe surgery. The report highlighted that investing in surgical services is not only affordable but essential to saving lives and securing safe health systems.

Closing the gap to ensure that surgical services are more readily accessible in lower- and middle-income countries, will not only save lives but also restore patients’ ability to work and lead productive lives, generating economic benefits that far outweigh their costs. The programme stands as a powerful testament to how targeted, cost-effective interventions can make a lasting impact.

In recent years, it has broadened its scope beyond surgical training. Recognizing that effective surgical care relies on multidisciplinary teams, it now supports the development of colleges in anesthesiology, obstetrics and gynecology, and nursing across the region.

This expansion builds on a proven model for rapidly scaling up training in the sub-Saharan context that involves a blend of virtual classrooms, mentorship, and a support network for isolated health workers. In some countries like Zambia, Tanzania and Malawi, particularly in rural hospitals, non-specialist and non-physician surgeons also play a key role in delivering essential procedures.

Further, at a time when trained health workers from the Global South are increasingly migrating to the Global North in search of better opportunities, the programme has proven to be a game-changer in stemming the exodus of health workers in the region.

A 2024 study reveals a significant shift, with an impressive 98.5% retention rate of specialist surgeons within Africa, addressing the chronic shortage of skilled health professionals. This shift represents not only a major achievement for the programme, but also an important step toward the sustainability of local healthcare systems.

Addressing the crisis in global surgery demands a fundamental shift in global health priorities: surgery is not a luxury intervention, but an essential component of any functioning health system. This requires policymakers to prioritize investments in training, infrastructure, and system-wide support, ensuring that surgical care is within reach for the millions who still don’t have access.

As the network of skilled practitioners expands, communities are themselves laying the groundwork for resilient health systems. In doing so, surgeons like Dr Mushenya and Dr Umugwaneza are safeguarding future generations from the preventable suffering that has long plagued the world’s poorest regions.

Eric O’Flynn is Programme Director — Education, Training and Advocacy, Institute of Global Surgery, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland (RCSI), University of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dublin.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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The people walk to Saydnaya prison to search for the detainees. Credit: Abdul Karem al-Mohammad/IPS

By Sonia Al Ali
IDLIB, Syria, Dec 16 2024 (IPS)

Detained without trial for over three years for trial for allegedly treating “terrorists” (as opponents of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were deemed), Alaa al-Khalil, a 33-year-old nurse from the Syrian city of Hama, recounts the agony of her time in a prison cell she shared with at least 35 women.

She was released from Aydnaya prison on December 8 after the fall of the Assad regime.

Following the fall of Assad’s regime and his escape to Moscow on December 8, armed opposition factions managed to open the doors of prisons, freeing hundreds of detainees who had endured the most horrific forms of torture for opposing Assad’s rule and demanding his removal from power. Many lost their lives within the prisons and were buried in mass graves, while the families of the detainees continue to search for their missing loved ones in the prisons of tyranny.

Years of Torture

“I was arrested at a security checkpoint belonging to the former Syrian regime and transferred to the Political Security Branch in Damascus—my hands were cuffed, and my eyes were blindfolded. In prison, we were 35 women in a small, cramped room with the toilet in the same room, without any privacy,” Khalil told IPS. “The marks of severe torture were clearly visible on some of the women. As for sleep, we would lie on the floor and take turns sleeping due to the very small size of the room. The most painful thing was that there were many pregnant women who gave birth to children who grew up inside the prison.”

The search for survivors in Sednaya prison. Credit: Abdul Karem al-Mohammad/IPS

During that time, she said the prisoners suffered from “hunger, cold, and all forms of torture, including beatings, burning with cigarettes, and nail pulling.”

Many of the female detainees were raped and exposed to sexual violence as a form of punishment. After midnight, the guards would come to the detainees’ room to select the most beautiful girls to take them to the officers’ rooms.

“We preferred torture and even death to rape. When a girl refused to have sex or confess to the charges against her during interrogation, she would be killed by the guards or interrogators, and her body would be thrown into the salt room, which was prepared in advance to preserve the bodies of the dead for as long as possible,” she said, tearfully remembering the daily trauma.

Khalil confirms that prisoners were not allowed to look at the guards, talk, or make any noise, even during torture. They were punished by being deprived of water or forced to sleep naked without covers in the freezing cold. The meals consisted of a few bites of spoilt food, and many people contracted serious infections, diseases, and mental disorders.

Now released, Khalil hopes to enjoy safety, stability, and peace in this country after years of oppression and injustice.

Adnan al-Ibrahim, 46, from the southern Syrian city of Daraa, was also released a few days ago from Adra prison on the outskirts of Damascus after spending over 10 years there on charges of defecting from Bashar al-Assad’s army and seeking asylum in Lebanon.

“I feel like I’m dreaming after being released from prison. They accused me of terrorism, subjected me to torture, and I was never brought before a court during my imprisonment. I’m still traumatized by what I endured,” Ibrahim says.

“We were subjected to the worst treatment imaginable in prisons. All we want now is the right to live a decent life, far from injustice, arbitrary arrests, and the ongoing killing in Syria.”

He is now emaciated and weak—his weight drastically reduced due to malnutrition and poor diet. Most of his fellow inmates suffered from life-threatening illnesses as a result of the torture they endured. Many inmates lost their memory due to being beaten on the head during interrogations, and the bodies of the dead remained for long periods before being removed. Many of these bodies were disposed of by burning.

Burdened by Psychological Prauma

Samah Barakat, a 33-year-old mental health specialist, says the survivors of Syrian detention centres will need help to overcome their traumas.

‘The experience of imprisonment and torture in prisons is painful and traumatic for survivors. Imprisonment is not limited to physical torture; the mental state is also affected. Prisoners were subjected to various forms of torture and oppression, leading to a significant deterioration in their mental health. These effects include a range of psychological disorders such as psychosis, memory loss, and speech impediments, in addition to the spread of diseases due to their deprivation of basic medical care.”

Barakat confirms that some detainees are likely to suffer from physical, psychological, and behavioural effects, accompanied by constant anxiety, depression, and social withdrawal.

She explains that survivors of detention need psychological support, which varies depending on the impact of the detention experience. Some need psychological counseling or therapy sessions with specialists, while others require medication prescribed by a psychiatrist due to depression or other mental illnesses.

An Unknown Fate

For some, the uncertainty of the fates of their loved ones means the trauma of the Asad regime lives on.

Alaa al-Omar, 52, from the northern Syrian city of Idlib, went to Saydnaya prison and the Palestine Branch in Damascus after the fall of the Assad regime, hoping to find his son, who had disappeared in the prison’s depths.

“I went to the prison with great longing, but I found no trace of my son. I think he died as a result of torture.”

Omar affirms that his son was arrested by the Assad regime forces in 2015 while studying at a university in Aleppo, accused of participating in demonstrations, carrying weapons, and joining the opposition factions.

Omar indicates he heard nothing from his son or about his son since his arrest, and his fate remains unknown even now.

Human Rights Violations

Human rights activist Salim Al-Najjar (41), from Aleppo, speaks about the suffering of survivors of detention and told IPS that the history of building prisons and expanding detention centers in Syria dated back to the rule of Hafez al-Assad, whose regime in the 1980s exercised excessive force against its opponents, turning the country into a “large slaughterhouse.”

“In the regime’s prisons, lives are as equal as stones in the hands of a sculptor, killed and discarded without regard or importance. In them, a person becomes a mere number, with their history, feelings, and even dreams that haunted them until the last moment of their lives ignored,” Najjar says.

Al-Najjar confirms the existence of many prisons in Syria, but the Saydnaya prison, located north of the Syrian capital Damascus, is known as the most prominent political detention center in Syria and was notorious for its horrific reputation as a site of torture and mass executions, especially after the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011. Saydnaya prison was where Assad’s detained opponents or defectors from his army or those who rejected his “killing policy.”

He points out that few detainees were released through family connections or bribes, while the detainees were left to die from their untreated wounds and diseases in “dirty, overcrowded” cells.

He notes that many detainees emerged from behind bars suffering from a loss of their mental faculties, unable to remember their names or identify themselves, and due to the severe changes caused by malnutrition and brutal torture, their features had changed to the point that their families did not recognize them at first.

Najjar hopes to achieve justice for the victims by presenting evidence and documents to international courts and holding Assad and all perpetrators of violations in Syria accountable.

The Syrian Network for Human Rights said in a statement on December 11 that Assad is accused of killing at least 202,000 Syrian civilians, including 15,000 killed under torture, the disappearance of 96,000 others, and the forced displacement of nearly 13 million Syrian citizens, as well as other heinous violations, including the use of chemical weapons.

“Syrian detention centers and torture chambers symbolize the agony, oppression, and suffering that Syrians have endured for decades. Survivors of detention continue to heal their wounds and strive to return to their normal lives and reintegrate into society. Sadly, a significant number of them have perished under torture.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Though silenced in public, Afghan women continue their resistance in secret. Credit: Learning Together

By External Source
Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

Three years after the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan, women continue to face oppressive laws and systemic marginalization.

The Taliban have imposed draconian rules: women must cover their entire body from head to toe, they must not raise their voices in public, they must not pray or read the Koran aloud to each other. They have long been banned from taking up jobs outside the home or have education

Despite this, Afghan women are determined to resist. “We will continue our protests and struggles until we achieve freedom,”  defiantly declares Farzana, a member of the Afghan Women Movement.

Over the past 20 years, women in Afghanistan had achieved higher education and professional skills, but are now under greater threat from the Taliban. They have suddenly been marginalized by Taliban rule.

“During the first two years,” says Farzana, “we took to the streets to protest for our rights. Unfortunately, during these demonstrations, the Taliban arrested the protesting women, imprisoned and punished them, and there was no one to defend these women.”

Women could no longer tolerate this situation and took to the streets to demand their rights, but lately, despite the introduction of new and strict laws by the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice of the Taliban, which even banned women’s voices, no street protests have been seen. It seems that silence has also plagued Afghan women.

Based on my interviews with female prisoners after their release, they were even whipped naked, raped, and their family members mysteriously murdered.

“We are secretly active in protest groups,” Farzana explains. “We are not allowed to roam the streets. We have been sharing our protests with the media individually from home for some time now. The Taliban cannot silence our voices. We will continue our protests and struggles until we reach freedom”.

Malalai, another female protester, says: “The Taliban even send spies to our homes under various pretexts, with masked faces, claiming they are people on routine government duties. They have our photos and videos with them, and they identify and arrest us.”

 

Though silenced in public, Afghan women continue their resistance in secret. Credit: Learning Together

 

Malalai also says that the Taliban have installed cameras on top of every high building, supposedly for security cameras, but their real purpose is to monitor women. Recently, several women have been unexpectedly arrested and imprisoned.

“The Taliban are afraid of us because we expose the oppression on the people, women, and ethnic minorities”, says Malalai adding: “The Taliban have imposed pressure and strict rules on women. Women cannot even go on the streets without a Mahram – a male family member. We are interrogated if a few of us are seen standing together on the streets. They check our cell phones and punish us”.

“The Taliban have a strangle-choke on us. They are shamelessly violating our human rights, the rights of ethnic minorities and that of our families in full view of the United Nations and other countries.

“We women will continue our struggle despite the pressures and oppression of a world-known terrorist group. We will act on our slogans of bread-work-freedom”.

Sabera, another female protester, highlights the Taliban’s tactics of intimidation and control. “Taliban’s intelligence agents are arresting women who are against them. Through phone calls and photos that they gather from the demonstrations, they identify the women protesters during house-to-house searches. Also, they forcibly collect copies of people’s identity cards and passports to identify the women protesters – their declared opponents.”

Although we protested for our rights, many women protesters, both single and married, are currently imprisoned by the Taliban and are facing severe punishment, with no one following up on their situation.

Currently, due to many challenges, we are holding protests in secret locations with our faces covered, and then we must flee to another country.

The Taliban commit a lot more atrocities and oppression in the distant provinces further away from the cities. They forcibly tax the people twice their annual income.

If people do not obey the dictate of the Taliban, they forcibly enter their homes and snatch away their daughters. They also rape their wives and daughters and force them to move out of their residential areas.

“We can no longer tolerate this oppression. We will continue our fight,” says Sabera.

Those interviewed say the women in Afghanistan are fighting bravely against the tyranny and harsh laws of the Taliban, but they do not have any support.

“In spite of poverty and unemployment, we continue our journey at our own expense,” says Sabera.

The women are appealing to the United Nations and human rights organizations to stop supporting and to not recognize the Taliban regime.

“We are very disappointed that our voices do not reach the world from this dark pit,” says Sabera.

The European Union is shocked at the laws passed by the Taliban that limits women’s freedom of speech and, essentially restricts women’s life to within the house.

“Possible recognition would require that the Taliban comply in all respects with both its obligations towards the citizens of Afghanistan and Afghanistan’s international obligations,” an European Council press release states.

The EU continues to support Afghan women and girls and all those threatened by the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The Taliban, on the other hand, also refuse to cooperate with the UN-supported UNAMA aid operation

Excerpt:

The author is an Afghanistan-based female journalist, trained with Finnish support before the Taliban take-over. Her identity is withheld for security reasons

Protest for climate justice. Two hundred 200 women gathered at Mt. Yasur, an active volcano on the island of Tanna in Vanuatu. Credit: Greenpeace & Ben Bohane

By Umar Manzoor Shah
THE HAGUE, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

The “crazy, weird and at some point (what seemed like) insurmountable” plan to ask the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion on the obligations of UN member states regarding climate change was a success, Vishal Prasad, a representative for the. Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change (PISFCC) said at a post-hearing press conference today (December 13).

“We have taken the world’s biggest problem to the world’s highest court,” Prasad said, and this should be a source of inspiration to young people who may find what’s happening about them depressing.

He said he was moved by the experience of telling the ICJ their story from a youth’s perspective.

Yet, Cristelle Pratt, Assistant Secretary-General, Organization of African Caribbean and Pacific States, said some of the testimony that was presented in court was dubious.

“Despite the overwhelming consensus that the relevant conduct is unlawful, a small minority of participants have had the audacity to double down on the limb of their innocence. They have done this in two ways. First, they have argued that the legal question being asked to the court is strictly forward-looking in nature and does not concern itself with historical emissions,” Pratt said.

“Second, they have argued that the only legal obligations binding on them do not, in fact, require them to account for their historical emissions, including by reparations, let alone oblige them to stop emitting beyond their pitiful privileges. In essence, these states have invited the court to absolve them of a moral responsibility.”

During a fortnight of hearings, countries and organizations have given their arguments in a case that was initiated at the request of Vanuatu in which the UN General Assembly asked the ICJ to issue an advisory opinion on the obligations of UN member states in preventing climate change and ensuring the protection of the environment for present and future generations.

During the final day of hearing, the court continued to hear testimony of the impact of climate change, particularly on small island states.

Tuvalu’s Attorney-General, Eselealofa Apinelum, speaking on behalf of the Commission of Small Island States on Climate Change and International Law (COSIS), reminded the court that there was still time.

“There is still time to avert the worst impacts if only states can make the necessary cuts to their greenhouse gas emissions. The court can, and indeed must, provide specific and pivotal guidance on states’ obligations in this regard.”

Speaking on behalf of COSIS, an intergovernmental organization with a mandate to clarify the rules and principles of international law concerning climate change, Professor Payam Akhavan reminded the court that “significant harm has already occurred, and without decisive action, it will only get worse. These impacts touch on every aspect of island life. The major polluters are destroying the future of our people.”

He continued, “The court can provide the critical guidance needed to align international law with the best available science and ensure accountability for the harm caused by greenhouse gas emissions.”

Dr. Stuart Minchin, Director-General of the Pacific Community (SPC), said the court could provide a solid foundation for the future.

“Pacific leaders aptly describe our region as the Blue Pacific Continent. It’s 98 percent ocean—it contains 30 percent of the world’s exclusive economic zones and over 60 percent of the world’s tuna stocks.”

Climate change posed a particular risk to these islands, as half of the population lived 5 km from the coastline, which highlights the consequence of extreme sea-level events in the region.

“The science is clear: Climate change is already causing existential impacts to the peoples and communities of our vast Pacific region, and meaningful action is required to reduce its impacts as a matter of urgency,” Minchin said.

“Under no scientific scenarios can we continue to pursue a future underpinned by fossil fuels and still expect to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. We need to act now to ensure the livelihoods and self-determination of Pacific people and cultures are protected for future generations.”

Coral Pasisi, Director of Climate Change at SPC, said the loss and damage were economic, cultural and social.

“The loss and damage already experienced, together with the associated impacts on culture, traditional practice, and knowledge, have both extreme economic and non-economic implications,” Pasisi said. “Cyclone Heta in 2004 caused economic damages in Niue alone, equating to five times the GDP of our country, an unimaginable and irreparable loss, including the destruction of our only museum and over 90 percent of our cultural artifacts.”

Prasad had earlier told the court that, “In the Pacific, we have always looked to the stars. Our ancestors navigated the vastness of the ocean and traveled immense distances. Today, the world needs wayfinders, those who can guide us towards a path that protects our homes, upholds our rights, and preserves our dignity.”

Now was the time for the reinvention of this time-honored tradition.

“This practice, wayfinding, is more than just a method of navigation. It is a relationship. It connects those who came before with those who will follow. Every decision mattered, not only for the journey in that moment but for the future that it shaped.”

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• ‘We Will Not Go Quietly Into the Rising Sea,’ Tuvalu Tells International Court of Justice
• Once Scattered by Colonialism, Today United in Urgent Pursuit of Climate Justice
• Climate Change Justice

Excerpt:

Hearings on states' legal obligations to combat climate wrapped up today at the International Court of Justice. An opinion is expected next year. While wealthy countries argued that the existing climate frameworks are enough, the small island states in the Pacific, Africa and the Caribbean have pleaded with the court to consider the human rights of those affected and those who will be affected in the future.

Most scientists lack training in effective science communication, and their use of jargon often hinders public understanding and trust in scientific papers and findings. Credit: Shutterstock

By Esther Ngumbi
URBANA, Illinois, US, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

New research shows that AI-generated summaries of scientific writing made the information more approachable and easier to understand, and thus created more public engagement with the information. This is notable because most scientists aren’t trained in science communication tactics and so their jargon affects many people’s ability to understand and trust scientific papers and findings.

Science communication has always been an important part of the scientific process because discoveries, solutions and findings that can help solve our world’s greatest challenges cannot be adopted or understood by the public without clear communication.  Communicating science well also can shape and inform public policy.

Scientists, therefore, have a responsibility to make sure that they communicate their knowledge and findings in a way that the public and policymakers can understand, but too often that is not happening.

Scientists have a responsibility to make sure that they communicate their knowledge and findings in a way that the public and policymakers can understand, but too often that is not happening

Due to the importance of science communication, it is necessary for scientists to be trained in science communication. That is why I started a science communications course at my university.

I have taught it for over 4 years and cover topics like the art of writing opinion pieces and creating science stories, communicating science to different audiences through careful use of metaphors and minimal use of jargon.

Additionally, the class covers topics such as communicating science using social media and communicating with politicians and creating visual science stories.  Students who have taken the class have continued to use the skills learned in class in their careers while others went on to become science communicators

The people who need to learn these skills include recent PhD graduates, post-doctoral fellows, assistant professors, newly tenured and full professors.

There are several resources including textbooks, science communication workshops, and many trusted organizations and institutions to which scientists can turn. Science communication newbies can also turn to social media including Bluesky social and Instagram to meet other science communication enthusiasts.

Notably, there are institutions and organizations to which scientists can turn. The American Association for the Advancement of Science, for example has developed a communication toolkit to help science communication newbies.

The OpED project has programs to help people learn how to write OpEds and a few times a year, they offer science communication workshops.  Moreover, most universities also have webpages listing science communication resources.

For example, Duke University has a webpage listing the resources available including science communication workshops, events and classes.

Communicating science effectively via OpEds, blogs, and social media outlets is not only important for reaching the public and policy makers, but it can help scientists themselves, too.

First, through public publishing and engagement, scientists can establish their own reputation. Journalists and policymakers will often reach out to whatever expert they can easily find, and being active on social media and op-ed pages will make a person easier to find.

Being a consistent public voice – backed up by good work – can help establish someone as an expert in their field. Moreover, scientists that regularly and consistently participate in science communication can track its impact and include that on tenure promotion packages.

This happened to me. Being consistent with writing over 150 OpEds, since 2015, for example has helped to advance my career.

Second, communicating science publicly help a person build a professional network, which can lead to peers reaching out for collaborations and co-writing of grant proposals.

It can lead to people recommending each other for awards or invitations to speak on panels, workshops or to give plenary talks.

This has been my experience, and I’ve received a few invitations thanks to my public writing. For instance, I was invited to give a plenary talk at the annual 2019 British Ecological Society, and I’ve been invited to speak at various universities.

In 2021, I was awarded the American Association for the Advancement of Science Mani L. Bhaumik Award for Public Engagement with Science.

Third, communicating science can help a scientist grow their skills and become better at speaking and writing in publicly accessible language. And it can help scientists learn to become better at capitalizing on newsworthy moments. In addition, this can also facilitate the building of trust among different communities and the public.

Fourth, it can allow scientists to offer a public service and provide accurate information about their discoveries and recent scientific and technological advancements to reporters and policymakers.

Of course, for new beginners, it can be overwhelming to join the science communication bandwagon. Not only may it be unfamiliar and a new skill to develop, but there are concerns like being unable to control what happens to your writing or how it is used once it’s published, or the fact that science is ever evolving, and new information may agree or disagree with previously held truths. But the benefits outweigh the negatives.

Science communication is critical for conveying important scientific information. Scientists must stand up for science. When scientists become better science communicators, the public, society, and scientists benefit.

Esther Ngumbi, PhD is Assistant Professor, Department of Entomology, African American Studies Department, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

In Somalia, water infrastructure projects are building climate resilience and reducing emissions by using solar panels to provide energy. A new report calls for recognizing and establishing a nexus between the water, energy and food sectors in the Horn of Africa. Credit: UNDP/Tobin Jones

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

The Horn of Africa holds the resources and potential for lasting development and resilience. The countries in the subregion and development partners need to come together to invest in regional cooperation and resource management.

On December 12, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) launched the first-ever Human Development Report on the Horn of Africa subregion, which includes Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.

Horn of Africa Human Development Report 2024: Enhancing Prospects for Human Development through regional Integration, explores the key challenges that the eight countries and the subregion are experiencing in

In the Arab states and the African region, low productivity in economic activity will only continue in a “vicious cycle,” one that perpetuates poverty for the population. Abdallah Al Dardari, UN Assistant Secretary-General and UNDP Regional Director for the Arab States, remarked that the countries in the subregion have been taking what he described as a “siloed approach” to state affairs, even as its neighbors are dealing with the same issues. This is evident in how the region engages with the water and food sectors.

The report calls for recognizing and establishing a nexus between the water, energy and food sectors. Over 50 percent of the population across the Horn of Africa experience moderate to severe food insecurity and only 56 percent have access to electricity. Less than 56 percent have access to clean drinking water, yet the report indicates that this is not a consistent experience among the countries, given their geographical locations.

Conflict and disasters have also been persistent factors that have limited development in the Horn of Africa, as over 23.4 million people have been displaced in the wake of major conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and internal conflicts like in Ethiopia.

The report presents three priorities that will help to accelerate human development and build resilience: build on increasing intra-regional trade, enhance collaboration in the water, energy and food sectors, and promote governance and peace.

The region could see a GDP increase of 3.9 percent by 2030 through liberalizing trade and reducing tariffs. The African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) agreement would also boost trade were it fully implemented; the countries in the ACFTA need to ratify the agreement for them to benefit. Regional integration through collaboration on resource management can help foster sustainable growth and climate resilience, as the report suggests. This could be seen in improved access to electricity and shared food value systems. This could be valuable in a subregion that holds a high share of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydro and yet faces significant energy gaps.

“What we’ve attempted to do with this report is see if we can begin to see a shift in the narrative on this region,” said Ahunna Eziakonwa, the UN Assistant Secretary General and Director of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Africa. In working towards integration in economic and political relations, she argued, partnerships need to be established within the subregion that is built on finding commonalities and shared purposes. Changing the narrative is key towards achieving sustainable development.

At the report’s launch, Eziakonwa remarked that certain demographics needed to be brought into the fold when discussing development, requiring a re-examination of the narratives associated with them. Young people make up a significant percentage of the population across the region, yet they have been characterized as the problem rather than the solution. Involving young people and recognizing the skills and perspectives they can bring to the table is critical, which will involve expanding socio-economic opportunities for the youth population that are not employed or in education. Investing in women’s participation in the development sector is also needed, for they have been largely left out of decision-making spaces and policy discussions.

Through this report, UNDP is calling on governments and development partners to invest in infrastructure and policy frameworks that build up human development and resilience in the Horn of Africa.

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People gather to celebrate freedom in Damascus. UN News Credit: Gaith Sabbagh

By Alon Ben-Meir
NEW YORK, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

The fall of the Assad regime is a historic watershed event that will have significant regional and international ramifications. The question is, will the rebels fulfill their promise to be inclusive and lift the Syrian people out of their misery, and what can the US and Israel do to help shape the trajectory of the new regime?

It is hard to exaggerate the jubilation of the Syrian people when they heard the news about the fall of Bashar al-Assad, which ended a 52-year-old ‘dynasty’ that will be remembered as the darkest chapter of the country’s existence.

How long the public’s jubilation will last, and whether normalcy will be restored to a shattered country, will depend on whether the new government fulfills its promise to be inclusive, focusing on rebuilding the country and seeking peace and reconciliation, or simply replaces one ruthless dictatorship with a new one.

Perhaps it is premature to determine whether or not the rebels will keep their word with respect to their promises to be inclusive and treat every citizen, regardless of their ethnicity, equally before the law.

However, there are important and positive signs that the new leaders are likely to follow what they have been saying to demonstrate that they are committed to establishing responsible and legitimate governance.

To that end, they called for national unity and a peaceful transfer of power. The rebels’ leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, met with the outgoing prime minister Mohammed al-Jalali to discuss the transition of power to demonstrate his desire to work with experienced officials to ensure a smoother power transfer and temporarily supervise the bureaucracy.

Hadi al-Bahra, president of the Syrian National Coalition, outlined plans for an 18-month transitional period and extended his hand to help draft a new constitution and hold elections as desired by the rebel leaders.

To show the rebels’ leaders’ commitment to justice, they swore to hold accountable many army officers who were involved in torture and commit themselves to establishing “a state of freedom, equality, rule of law and democracy,” as Syria’s UN ambassador Koussay Aldahhak stated.

They instructed their followers to preserve the state’s institutions, restore essential services, and reopen banks to ensure economic stability. They further directed their rank and file to prevent the desecration of shrines and cultural centers of many ethnic groups, including the pro-Assad Alawites, making them feel reassured and optimistic that they would not be excluded from joining the political transitional process.

Given the reign of horror that was inflicted on the Syrian people, the new leaders appear to be committed to a new beginning that the public is yearning for, not simply replacing the ruthless Assad dictatorship with a new one.

They want to write a new chapter that would end the public’s pain, suffering, and despair, especially over the past 14 years since the outbreak of the Arab Spring, and bring hope for a better and promising future. On the whole, it appears as though a new era has dawned on Syria.

The above positive signs, however, are not free from the many challenges in regime change, which include integrating the armed groups into a unified structure and preserving all state institutions, as well as laborious negotiations between the numerous opposition groups with different ideologies and loyalties.

There are also concerns that hasty changes might invite other militant groups to emerge and plunge the country once again into a civil war and destroy what was left under Assad.

Finally, the more troubling concern is about the Islamic roots of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and the question is raised as to whether or not its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, formerly affiliated with al-Qaida, would revert to extremism. To alleviate these concerns, he clarified that his severing of ties to al-Qaeda goes back several years and pledged to pursue pluralism, ethnic equality, and religious tolerance.

What transpires domestically will affect foreign powers, especially Turkey, Iran, and Russia, which have vested geostrategic interests in Syria. How the rebel leaders navigate between these rival powers will have significant repercussions for Syria and its place in an unstable region ladened with conflicts and competition for greater sway with the new leaders in Damascus.

Setting this aside, for now, the most urgent matter is for the US and Israel, in particular, to take several actions to encourage the new Syrian leadership to pursue what they have publicly promised and maintain the initial social, economic, and political steps they have taken.

The US should first remove HTS from the terrorist list to send a clear message that the US is willing to demonstrate its initial trust that the new leadership will indeed follow what they have promised. Since legitimacy is critical to the new leadership, the US should offer diplomatic recognition, conditional upon the rebels’ commitment to democracy and the rule of law.

In addition, the US should engage in back-channel diplomacy to discuss regional security and offer cooperation. The US could provide economic assistance by first removing the sanctions that date back to 2012, assisting in the efforts to recover funds stolen by Assad himself and his government, and supporting reconstruction efforts, which can significantly help improve living conditions and stabilize the country.

Finally, the US could offer technical know-how and training for civil society organizations and help promote independent media and democratic institutions.

By taking these and other measures, the US can demonstrate its commitment to supporting the Syrian peoples’ aspiration for democracy and the prospect of growth and prosperity while addressing the US’ concerns over regional stability.

To prevent any potential conflagration with the new Syrian government, Israel has established three red lines for the rebels, daring them not to cross. These include: 1) not letting chemical weapons fall into the hands of Jihadist rebels; 2) preventing Iran from deploying Iranian troops to rebuild any military installations on Syrian territory; and 3) no hostile forces deployed near the Israeli border.

Israel has already taken several precautionary measures to prevent any misunderstanding, which include temporarily seizing control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, bombing suspected chemical weapons sites, and implementing a curfew in several villages within the buffer zone.

Having conveyed that those are preventive measures, Israel can take several steps to encourage peaceful relationships with the new government while mitigating the rebels’ traditional hostilities toward Israel. To begin with, Israel should establish a line of communication with the rebels and extend humanitarian aid to develop goodwill.

In addition, Israel can offer economic incentives and demonstrate its interest in addressing Syria’s security concerns. By combining diplomatic outreach, strategic security measures, and financial incentives, Israel can develop a stable relationship with the new Syrian government while maintaining its security.

There are and will be several other critical issues that separate Israel and the rebels; chief among them is the future of the Golan Heights. However, whether or not the new government accepts Israel’s gestures, by taking these measures, Israel can create a positive atmosphere that can facilitate constructive negotiations about any conflicting issue in the future.

The stunning victory of the Syrian rebels opens up new possibilities for a more peaceful Middle East, or it can set the stage for even more intense violence, death, and destruction. The new Syrian authority must decide which way they choose to go. One thing, however, is certain.

Although other powers, especially Turkey, Russia, and Iran, have a unique interest in Syria’s future, what the US and Israel do will have the greatest impact on the path the new regime in Damascus will choose to travel.

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.
alon@alonben-meir.com Web: www.alonben-meir.com

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Mahrang Baloch recently was acknowledged by the BBC as one of the most inspiring and influential women from around the world for 2024. Credit: Baloch Yakjehti Committee

By Zofeen Ebrahim
KARACHI, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

“This recognition by a media outlet highlights the painful stories of abductions, torture, and the genocide of the Baloch people,” said 31-year-old political activist Mahrang Baloch, speaking with IPS over the phone from Quetta, Balochistan, in reference to her inclusion on the BBC’s annual list of 100 most inspiring and influential women from around the world for 2024.

“BBC 100 Women acknowledges the toll this year has taken on women by celebrating those who—through their resilience—are pushing for change as the world changes around them,” stated the media organization.

This is the second award that Mahrang received this year. In October, she was among Time magazine’s ‘2024 Time100 Next’ list of young individuals to recognize for “advocating peacefully for Baloch rights.”

She was invited by the magazine to attend a ceremony in New York, but she was stopped at the airport from boarding the plane on October 7 “without giving me a reason” why. She stated that she was termed a “terrorist” and a “suicide bomber,” with multiple cases filed against her. “And if this were not enough, now I and my brother have been placed on the Fourth Schedule list,” she said. Introduced in 1997, the Fourth Schedule aimed to combat sectarian violence, militancy, and terrorism. Almost 4,000 Baloch have been placed in the Fourth Schedule list.

Being placed on the Fourth Schedule under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) is a serious matter, resulting in restrictions such as travel bans, frozen bank accounts, prohibitions on financial support, arms license embargoes, and employment clearance limitations.

A trained medical doctor, Mahrang began protesting against the alleged abductions and killings of innocent Baloch by Pakistani security forces in 2006, well before her father, a political activist, forcibly disappeared in 2009. His tortured body was discovered in 2011.

In 2017, her brother was abducted, and though he was released in 2018, Mahrang continued to advocate for justice for all the disappeared, despite facing threats and intimidation. In 2019, she founded the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), a human rights movement dedicated to raising awareness and seeking justice for the Baloch people.

Balochistan’s history of resistance against the Pakistan government began in 1948 and continues. Pakistan’s military, paramilitary and intelligence forces have responded with kidnapping, torturing and killing tens of thousands of Baloch men.

The Voice for the Baloch Missing Persons, a non-profit organisation representing family members of those who disappeared in Balochistan, has registered approximately 7,000 cases since 2000.

“We have been fighting for our families now for over two decades, on every platform. I have appeared in courts, even the Supreme Court of Pakistan, presented our cause at every commission and committee that the government or the judiciary has set up but so far there has been no progress. In fact, in the last three months of this year alone, more Baloch individuals are being picked than in any other time,” said Nasrullah Baloch, chairman of the VBMP, speaking to IPS over the phone.

“We have no confidence in any government institution, especially the government-constituted Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances (CoIED), anymore to resolve our issue,” he rued.

But neither does the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ). In 2020, Ian Seiderman, ICJ’s Legal and Policy Director, stated the commission (established in 2011) had failed to hold even a single perpetrator of enforced disappearance responsible.

“A commission that does not address impunity nor facilitate justice for victims and their families can certainly not be considered effective,” he said.

Since the ICJ’s policy brief, not much seems to have changed. Indeed, Mahrang asserts that the situation has deteriorated. In the past three months, “over 300 Baloch have been abducted, and seven cases of extrajudicial killings have been reported.” On the other hand, the CoIED reported that it had resolved 8,015 of the 10,285 cases it had investigated from 2011 to June 2024.

In 2021 and then again in 2022, Pakistan’s parliament tried passing a bill to criminalize enforced disappearances but it has not yet come into force. Pakistan has refused to ratify the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance.

Media’s Dismal Role

While the international media has given Baloch activists like Mahrang “hope” by amplifying their voices and bringing “visibility” to their “genuine” cause, she said it has failed to ignite the Pakistani media.

“Our national media has failed us,” she lamented, adding that they never supported their “genuine” cause. In such circumstances, the recognition by the international media gives her some “hope.”

Prominent journalist and author Mohammad Hanif, who has consistently highlighted the issue of missing Baloch, described Mahrang as “articulate, clearheaded, and inspirational.” He admitted that the media in Pakistan has not given the issue adequate coverage, revealing, “There were standing instructions to newsrooms not to cover it.” Furthermore, he pointed out a “clear bias among mainstream journalists against Baloch issues.”

Talat Hussain, political commentator and journalist, agreed that media coverage of enforced disappearances had been “limited and partially blacked out” but added it was not entirely absent in its coverage.

He acknowledged he had not covered the issue extensively, not because he had been asked to avoid it, but because the overwhelming news flow in Islamabad, driven by political unrest, protests, rising terrorism, and economic challenges, eclipsed everything.

However, Hussain noted that what was considered a human rights issue had become deeply politicized, increasingly intertwined with Baloch separatism. Many now view the activists as opponents of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects. “This complicates efforts to recognize Mahrang solely as a human rights campaigner,” he remarked.

Farah Zia, director of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, declined to equate the BYC with the separatist movement. She described women like Mahrang, who “come out to protest and even lead them,” as a refreshing phenomenon. “This completely unarmed, non-violent resistance movement makes these young women leaders extremely powerful.” Moreover, said Zia, “Even her followers are young, educated Baloch who have defied their traditional power centres, including their tribal elders.”

“They have broken many stereotypes associated with Baloch women,” agreed Zohra Yusuf, a rights activist. In 2023, Mahrang led hundreds of women on a 1,000-mile (1,600 km) march to the capital Islamabad to demand information on the whereabouts of their family members. She was arrested twice during the journey. The BBC highlighted her December 2023 march to Islamabad, where she and hundreds of women marched for “justice for their husbands, sons, and brothers.”

“The people of Balochistan see Mahrang and the BYC as a beacon of hope because they have completely lost faith in the politicians,” pointed out Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur, who has been associated with the Baloch rights struggle since 1971 and wrote about violations of their rights in newspapers till 2015, after which he said the “media stopped publishing my pieces due to state pressure.”

“There are no consequences for those implementing disappear, kill and dump policies,” said Hanif. “The state believes in its own brute colonial power.”

“Enforced disappearances will continue as there is total impunity for the perpetrators. Those associated with the intelligence and security agencies have no regard for the rule of law,” pointed out Yusuf. She said the young doctor had exhibited “positive leadership qualities by being firm on her demands without creating hatred towards anyone.”

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Water floods in, showing how nature and people are at risk. Trees can't grow because of salt, leaving no protection. This photo warns about climate change's effect on our islands and atolls. It's a clear sign we need to act to keep our world safe. Credit: Gitty Keziah Yee/Tuvalu

By Tanka Dhakal
THE HAGUE, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

Rising sea level caused by greenhouse gas emission-fueled climate change is threatening existence in coastal communities and island nations. At the International Court of Justice (ICJ), on Thursday, December 12, 2024, small island states, including Tuvalu and a Pacific-based fisheries agency detailed their ongoing existential threats caused by the climate change-induced sea level rise and impacts on fishery-based livelihood.

Tuvalu, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) both focused their oral presentations before the court on highlighting added and exacerbated struggles faced by people in the region through visual evidence and testimony of the frontline community.

At the request of Vanuatu, the UN General Assembly asked the ICJ to issue an advisory opinion on the obligations of UN member states in preventing climate change and ensuring the protection of the environment for present and future generations. While its advisory opinion will not be enforceable, the court will advise on the legal consequences for member states who have caused significant harm, particularly to small island developing states. So far, more than 100 countries and agencies have presented their case before the court.

On Thursday, island states stressed the disproportionate effects of climate change on small islands, urging the court to recognize the duty of cooperation, the stability of maritime zones, and the principle of continuity of statehood.

Climate Crisis Can not be Solved in Isolation—Tuvalu

Tuvalu, a small island nation in the South Pacific with over 11,000 people, emphasized its right to self-determination and territorial integrity at a time when it is facing an existential threat from climate change-induced sea level rise.

The low-lying island nation of Tuvalu is fighting for its existence; according to scientists, much of their land area, along with critical infrastructure, will be under water by 2050. Tuvalu urged the ICJ to issue a strong advisory opinion on states’ obligations to combat climate change and protect small island states.

Furthering the submission, Laingane Italeli Talia, Attorney General of Tuvalu, said climate change is the single greatest threat the country is facing. “It cannot be that in the face of such unprecedented and irreversible harm, international law is silent.

“Tuvalu, accordingly, asks the court to keep the unprecedented infringement on our people’s right to self-determination at the very center of his critical advisory opinion in order to help chart the pathway forward for our very survival.”

‘Annihilation Posed By Nuclear Weapons’ 

Professor Phillipa Webb, representing Tuvulu, used the analogy that the threat of disappearance faced by states like Tuvalu is like the potential annihilation posed by nuclear weapons.

“This extreme circumstance triggers all the tools that international law provides for respecting statehood, ensuring territorial integrity and protecting sovereignty over natural resources,” Webb said.

“Tuvalu’s constitution affirms that its statehood will remain in perpetuity, notwithstanding any loss to its physical territory. In the same way that the right to survival requires state continuity, the right also compels respect for territorial integrity, which encompasses a state’s permanent sovereignty over its natural resources,” Webb said, drawing on the drawing on the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States.

“Respect for territorial integrity and territorial sovereignty is an essential foundation of international relations in the context of climate change. This obliges States to prevent and mitigate transboundary environmental harm. It requires that States facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts, and these measures should not be limited to the preservation and restoration of coasts and islands but also to protecting the rights of peoples to self-determination.”

The right to self-determination includes aspects other than physical land, and the court should take this into account.

“Territorial integrity, a corollary of the right to self-determination, is not limited to physical land territory. It must be conceived as a historical and cultural norm linked to the vitality, dignity and identity of the people holding the right to self-determination to ensure respect for territorial integrity goes beyond ensuring the maintenance of physical land boundaries. Like other concepts in international law, such as cultural heritage, biodiversity and intellectual property, it covers tangible and intangible assets.”

Quoting Tuvaluan climate activist Grace Malie, Webb told the court, “Tuvalu will not go quietly into the rising sea.”

Statehood Should be Ensured—AOSIS

AOSIS submitted its case on behalf of the 39 small island and low-lying coastal developing states and urged it to consider the existential threat posed by climate change-induced sea level rise and the possibility that some states may not even have dry land in the near future.

It emphasizes the importance of equity and self-determination in the context of climate change and the need for international law to support the continuity of statehood and sovereignty.

Fatumanava-o-Upolu III Dr. Pa’olelei Luteru, Chair of AOSIS and Permanent Representative of Samoa to the United Nations, focused on the impact of the climate crisis on states defined by the ocean’s limited resources and geographic vulnerability.

“Small island developing states rely heavily on coastal and marine resources as key drivers of our economies,” he said. “However, climate change is disrupting the fishery sector because of warming waters and an altered marine environment.”

The AOSIS asked the court to uphold the principle of continuity of statehood as established in international law, ensuring that statehood and sovereignty endure despite physical changes to land territory.

Luteru added, “In this era of unprecedented and relentless sea level rise, international law must evolve to meet the climate crisis and the disproportionate effect that it has on states.”

Focus on Sustainability of Tuna Fisheries—FFA

Rising sea level and ocean warming are not only threatening the existence of island nations but they are also hammering a major way of livelihood, fishing. Representing the fishing community at the ICJ, FFA highlighted the state of loss of fisheries, including tuna.

Tuna fisheries are crucial for the economic, social, and cultural development of Pacific Island communities, with 47 percent of households depending on fishing as a primary or secondary source of income.

FFA, an intergovernmental agency, focuses on sustainable use of offshore fisheries resources, particularly tuna, which are facing threats to climate change impacts.

“Damage to fisheries and loss of fish stocks will have a significant negative impact on the income, livelihoods, food security and economies of Pacific small island developing states, as well as social and cultural impacts,” Pio Manoa, Deputy Director General of FFA, said.

“Climate change is driving tuna further to the east and outside of members, exclusive economic zones into the high seas, threatening the loss of economic and food security of Pacific small and developing states.”

Studies show climate change-driven redistribution of commercial tuna species will cause an economic blow to the small island states of the Western and Central Pacific, ultimately threatening the sustainability of the world’s largest tuna fishery.

By 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of 10 of the Pacific small islands developing states members of the agency could decline by an average of 13 percent.

“The adverse consequences for the livelihood and well-being of coastal communities are profound, including their very security and survival impacts on marine resources, including offshore fisheries such as tuna,” Manoa said. “It is therefore incumbent upon the international community to take necessary action to deal with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and their consequences.”

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Excerpt:

Territorial integrity is not limited to physical land territory. It must be conceived as of a historical and cultural norm linked to the vitality, dignity and identity of the people holding the right to self-determination to ensure respect for territorial integrity goes beyond ensuring the maintenance of physical land boundaries—Professor Phillipa Webb

Four-year-old Walaa, a displaced Sudanese child, peers through the door in her new home in Al Karama, a gathering point for displaced people in Kassala state. Credit: UNICEF/Ahmed Mohamdeen Elfatih

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

On December 9, a wave of bombardments hit a market district in Sudan, killing at least 127 people. Over eight barrel bombs were launched on the North Darfur town Kabkabiya, marking the latest attacks on densely populated areas that occurred throughout the course of the Sudanese Civil War. Both the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have received immense criticism from humanitarian organizations for committing abuses against civilians that constitute violations of international humanitarian law.

According to figures from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 61,000 people have died in the Khartoum state alone in the wake of hostilities in Sudan. The United Nations (UN) adds that conflict has displaced over 11 million people, making this the biggest displacement crisis in the world. Additionally, there has been considerable damage on critical civilian infrastructure over the course of the war.

On December 11, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) released a report which declared that the 20-month civil war in Sudan has generated “the biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded”. Despite Sudan only containing approximately 1 percent of the global population, the nation contains over 10 percent of people in need of humanitarian assistance globally.

The SAF issued a statement on December 11 in which they denied responsibility for the recent attack, describing the accusations levied against it as “lies”. They further added that they believed they had the right to target any regions that are occupied by the RSF. The RSF has not responded as of yet.

On December 10, the RSF committed a heavy artillery shelling in a neighborhood in Omdurman, the largest city in the Khartoum state. According to the state government, this attack killed over 65 civilians and wounded hundreds of others. The RSF, described by the government as a “terrorist militia”, committed the “largest human massacre by shelling civilians in Karari locality.” The shelling also hit the Sabreen market and neighboring districts, as well a public transportation vehicle in the 17th district, killing all passengers on board.

The Director-General of Sudan’s Ministry of Health Fath al-Rahman Muhammad al-Amin informed reporters that casualties continue to be documented and that healthcare personnel are struggling to save lives in the midst of an influx of injured persons.

Mohamed Abdiladif, the interim country director for Save the Children in Sudan, described the two attacks as “unacceptable” as they took place in densely populated areas where families shopped for food with their children. Abdalif urged the warring parties to refrain from targeting markets, schools, healthcare facilities, and other integral public infrastructure not just as a moral obligation, he said, “but a vital step towards ensuring a stable, peaceful, and prosperous future for Sudan.”

“All wars are brutal, but the toll of this one is particularly horrifying. Indiscriminate attacks are killing civilians, including young children, some of the areas of most severe need remain cut off entirely, with no access to humanitarian aid,” warned Amy Pope, Director-General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Amnesty International reports that gender-based violence, mass killings, and blockages of humanitarian aid are regular occurrences in Sudan. Furthermore, there has been a new wave of hostilities in west Darfur, with reports of ethnic cleansing of the Masalit community on the rise.

Additionally, hostilities have continued to escalate in the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur. Thousands of refugees have been faced with sporadic bombardments from the RSF since December 1, causing them to flee in hordes from their makeshift homes. The camp’s spokesperson, Mohammed Khamis Doda, confirmed that renewed artillery shelling in the camp resulted in at least 9 civilian casualties on December 9. Numerous witnesses described the RSF using long-range missiles, which destroyed several housing units in the camp.

As a result of extended warfare, living conditions for millions of Sudanese civilians have deteriorated significantly. In August of this year, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) determined the presence of famine within the Zamzam camp. On December 6, Doctors Without Borders, known by its French acronym MSF, reported a total of 737 cases of cholera, indicating the presence of a deepening outbreak.

The situation in Malakal remains critical, and we are concerned that the outbreak is spreading to neighbouring areas such as Tonga and Kodok,” said Zakaria Mwatia, MSF’s head of mission in the country.

The Sudanese government has urged humanitarian organizations to scale up responses as the scale of needs grows by the day. Additionally, Sudanese civilians have urgently requested an increase in protections.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a report in which they indicated a host of violations of international humanitarian law occurring in Sudan. “The Rapid Support Forces’ abuse of civilians in South Kordofan is emblematic of continuing atrocities across Sudan. These new findings underscore the urgent need for the deployment of a mission to protect civilians in Sudan,” said Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, senior crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch.

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Félix Morfis, next to photovoltaic panels installed on his house in Regla municipality, Havana. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños /IPS

By Dariel Pradas
HAVANA, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

With Decree 110, published on 26 November, Cuba made it mandatory for major consumers, whether they are state or private entities, to invest in the use of renewable energy sources, while the energy crisis facing the country worsens.

According to the decree, state and private economic actors, representations of foreign institutions and associations must guarantee in new investments regarded as “major consumers of energy carriers” that half of the electricity they consume during daylight hours comes from renewable energy sources.

If they cannot install solar panels, due to the infrastructure of their premises, these entities must enter into contracts with the state-owned Unión Eléctrica – the guarantor of the generation, transmission and commercialisation of electricity – and connect to photovoltaic parks.

Breaking these provisions can lead to fines, interruption of electricity service for up to 72 hours and other sanctions.

“The measure reflects a failure in the policy of incentives for investment in renewable energy sources. It may favour the general population, but it doesn’t change the fact that the change in the energy matrix is being imposed with an iron fist,” Daniel López, a self-employed Havana resident, told IPS.

Entities considered major consumers – those that, in the last 12 months, have an average consumption of 30,000 kilowatts (KW) or 50,000 litres of fuel – will have three years to make investments to cover the 50% daytime use requirement.

Reactions on social media immediately followed the news: many internet users celebrated the decree, some were sceptical about its implementation, and a significant number feared for the impact it could have on the private sector.

“Is it viable providing a better service or increasing my production to have to pay more (by investing in solar panels), and not just in taxes? How many businesses are we going to lose because of this decree? Investment in Cuba is increasingly difficult,” commented user Horus in an article on the subject, published in Cubadebate, the most widely read state-run news website in the country.

Indeed, the law could discourage entrepreneurship in mini-industries or productive areas that normally consume a lot of electricity, or even cause businesses to raise the prices of some products and services to recoup investment costs.

Since 2020, this Caribbean island nation with 10 million people has been facing great difficulties in meeting its domestic electricity demand with its production plants.

The instability of the electro-energy system has been so evident that, in less than two months, Cuba has suffered three general power cuts – the latest on Wednesday 4 December – that have left hundreds of thousands of people without electricity for days.

Workers inside a private lathe workshop in Havana’s Patio El Triunfo, whose electricity supply comes from renewable sources. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

In the absence of incentives

The Patio El Triunfo project, located in the capital’s Regla municipality, is an example of a private business that is self-sufficient in renewable energy sources. It has installed photovoltaic panels with a generation of 10 kilowatts (KW), as well as solar heaters and dryers, and a 0.5 KW wind turbine.

This “clean” energy covers the daytime demand of the house and four businesses that are leased on the premises, including an auto mechanic’s workshop and a lathe shop.

Although the workshops have been in existence since 2010, in 2018 the project began the autonomous production of electricity, the surplus of which it sells to Unión Eléctrica.

The leader of the project, Félix Morfis, who is also the Regla representative of Cubasolar, a non-governmental organisation that has been promoting the use of renewable energy sources in Cuba since 1994 to replace polluting ones, criticises the prices of solar panels and the bureaucratic obstacles to accessing credit and buying them.

“It seems that the Cuban government has no interest whatsoever in people putting up solar panels. They advertise it, they hype it a lot, but actually there is nothing in hand,” he told IPS.

In the retail markets of the state-owned company Copextel, a basic one-kW generation module costs 2,551 MLC, the freely convertible currency, which is virtual and whose reference value is the dollar.

The average wage in Cuba is 4,648 pesos, about US$38.7, according to the official exchange rate of 120 pesos to one dollar.

In 2021, the Ministry of Finance and Prices issued Resolution 359,, which set the price for energy – from renewable sources – delivered to the National Electricity System (SEN) by independent producers in the residential sector: 3 pesos per kilowatt hour (kWh), about 0.025 dollars at the official exchange rate.

In October 2023, the same ministry approved Resolution 238, which doubled that amount.

“They are paying us 6 pesos (US$ 0.05) per kWh, but what I spend, they charge me through the normal system. They sell it to me at a high price and pay me cheaply. There is no incentive,” Morfis added.

The “normal system” that Morfis mentions is a progressive tariff that applies to the residential sector, which after exceeding 450 KWh of accumulated consumption, starts to cost more than six pesos per KWh, until it reaches 20 pesos per KWh (about US$ 0.17).

In any case, it is a subsidised price, according to the authorities, so that the cost of paying for electricity through the national electricity system is only marginally lower than importing or buying solar panels in foreign currency. In the end, it is more profitable not to invest in renewable energy sources.

Even so, more and more people are investing in solar panels with batteries, and private businesses that commercialise these devices have multiplied due to recurrent power outages and fuel shortages.

With no new cards in hand, the government imposed investment in renewable energy sources through Decree 110.

“The most difficult thing is how to make it easier for all the companies to pay for these panels,” Néstor Pérez, a member of the Patio El Triunfo project, told IPS.

Basic module for the production of electricity from solar sources, inside a market in Havana, specialised in the sale of equipment for the use of renewable energy sources, belonging to the state-owned company Copextel. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

Overview of renewable energy sources

In addition to decentralised energy generation and reducing the burden on the state, the new decree aims to reduce on imported-fuel dependency.

Since 2019, when the government issued Decree-Law 345 on the “development of renewable sources and the efficient use of energy”, this policy has been a priority.

Cuba aims for renewable energy sources to account for 24% of its energy matrix by 2030.

President Miguel Díaz-Canel announced on 27 November that more than 2,000 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic energy, equivalent to two million KW, is planned for the next three years.

However, of the 19,825 gigawatt hours (GWh) produced in 2023, 46% came from thermoelectric plants and 12.6% from using thermal energy from oil-fired natural gas, according to data from the  National Statistics and Information Office (Onei).

Likewise, 13.8% was produced by gensets, electricity generators interconnected to the system that run on diesel and fuel oil, and 22.7% from the six floating plants contracted to the Turkish company Karpowership.

Only 0.5% came from hydroelectric plants and 1.2% from wind and photovoltaic power.

The Nobel Peace Prize Forum with leading experts on global nuclear politics, including three former Nobel laureates, convened to discuss the continued risk of nuclear weapons. Credit: Soka Gakkai mInternational.

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS & OSLO, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

The existential threat that nuclear weapons present remains as pertinent as ever, even when they have not been deployed in war for nearly 80 years. As some countries seek out nuclear weapons or to upgrade and modernize their existing warheads, global voices in nuclear politics and disarmament warn of the potential risk of a new nuclear arms race amid the weakening of nuclear treaties that prohibit the proliferation and use of nuclear arms.

At this year’s Nobel Peace Prize Forum in Oslo, Norway, leading experts on global nuclear politics, including three former Nobel laureates, convened to discuss the risk of growing nuclear arsenals and what must be done to mitigate these risks. The forum ‘NUKES: How to Counter the Threat’ was hosted on December 11 at University Aula with the support of the city of Oslo, the International Forum for Understanding, and Soka Gakkai International.

The Nobel Institute has awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on 13 occasions to individuals and groups whose work was in service to the argument for the prohibition of nuclear weapons. This was seen up to the present day with Japanese grassroots organization Nihon Hidankyo, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on December 10. When accepting the award, co-chair Terumi Tanaka called for the world to listen to the testimonies of A-bomb survivors and to feel the “deep inhumanity of nuclear weapons.”

The forum began with the testimonies from two Hibakusha, survivors of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

Keiko Ogura was eight years old in Hiroshima. She recalled the trauma she carried with her in the aftermath of the bombing, as she saw people die around her, not yet knowing that they were suffering due to radiation. She and other Hibakusha came forward years later to share their experiences and the direct costs of deploying nuclear weapons.

“Before I die, we want to see this planet free of nuclear weapons,” said Ogura. “For us, discounting the number of nuclear weapons is nonsense. A single nuclear weapon means destruction of this world.”

Masao Tomonaga was two years old when Nagasaki was bombed, and his memories of that time are based on his mother’s recollections of that day. He followed in his father’s footsteps to become a doctor, who oversaw Hibakusha care at Nagasaki University and conducted research into the medical consequences of radiation from nuclear fallout. In his own research, Tomonaga found that the stem cells in the survivors’ bodies contained genetic abnormalities due to radiation, which made them vulnerable to leukemia and cancer. As one of the few cells that accumulates and survives across generations, he noted, they also accumulate “genetic errors” that could occur randomly across a lifetime. He hypothesized that the Hibakusha likely held pre-cancerous cells within them.

In the past decade, there have been efforts to reduce the number of nuclear warheads among the countries that held them. Yet in recent years, the attitude has started to shift in the opposite direction. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, remarked that this shift is marked by military nuclear doctrines that were previously respected and are now being questioned or overstepped.

“We are seeing a normalization of discourse of use of nuclear weapons,” Grossi warned, remarking on how these doctrines are being revisited to allow for some concession for the possession and use of nuclear weapons.

In such times, Grossi remarked, world leaders have an “irrevocable responsibility” to make the critical steps forward to nuclear disarmament. “It’s time that we are reminded at the right level of the necessity of this decision at the top, whether we like it or not,” he said. “We hope that this determination of the world leadership to tackle the issue of nuclear weapons, especially in a world so fragmented as the one we have.”

Yet in the debate of nuclear disarmament, countries seem split on their thinking of nuclear weapons. Experts also warned that the more ‘casual’ discussions of nuclear weapons by major parties also demonstrates an undermining of nuclear treaties. Although 191 member states joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), critics have pointed out that this has not been enforced to the extent that it is intended to, especially among the major players.

Speaking during a panel discussion on the risks of nuclear activity, Manpreet Sethi of the Centre for Air Power Studies in New Delhi, India, reflected on how certain countries—nuclear powers—held different perceptions of the risk of nuclear warfare.

“There is no shared sense of risk like there was during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962,” Sethi said. “Everyone is perceiving risk differently.” Sethi also remarked that countries were pushing the boundaries on the ‘nuclear envelope’—the limits on nuclear deployment, evident in the language used in discussing nuclear arms and proliferation.

The threat of nuclear warfare is also heightened when considering the advances made in technology and the impact of modernization and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. Wilfred Wan, Director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme in SIPRI, noted that disruptive technologies such as AI and automation would only “increase the vulnerabilities in nuclear weapons.” The relative unknown factors that remain with AI would also bring an “aura of instability [and] unpredictability to nuclear weapons.” “The only way to eliminate risk… is to eliminate nuclear weapons,” said Wan.

What are the measures then to mitigate the risks of nuclear arsenals in the present day? For one, dialogue between nuclear states and non-nuclear states is one possible step forward for non-nuclear states to call for nuclear states to cease their activities and work towards reduction. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that the Global South is in a position to make these demands, especially as many of these countries are also signatories to the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

Melissa Parke, Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), has said that one step forward would be for all countries, including nuclear powers, to sign the TPNW. The United Nations recently approved a new study on the effects of nuclear warfare for the modern age, a study that would be more comprehensive and update the understanding of nuclear warfare for the 21st century.

“The new UN study will be looking at things like the latest scientific confirmation from the 2022 Nature Food Journal that… even a limited nuclear war would not only kill millions of people outright, but it would cause global climate disruption, massive amounts of soot going into the stratosphere, circling the globe, blocking out sunlight, causing agricultural collapse, and the death by starvation of more than 2 billion people in a nuclear winter,” said Parke.

“I expect the new study will confirm what the Hibakusha have been telling us—have been warning us about. That the risks are real, immediate, and immense. Confronting them now is not a matter of choice but of necessity,” she said. “And that the necessary action is not just no-use but total nuclear disarmament, as that is the only way of eliminating the existential threat of nuclear weapons.”

A concerted, collective effort will be needed to put pressure on nuclear states to move towards non-proliferation and disarmament. That effort can begin on the individual level.

Ogura remarked that the world held a collective responsibility to prohibit nuclear weapons, from world leaders to the youth of the next generation. This could be achieved if the experiences of the Hibakusha and the survivors of nuclear fallout and testing are shared and never forgotten. With a hint of optimism, she said, “We are more than just a single drop.” Water spreads the word—through the ocean, the tide, through the continent. I have a belief—someday we can make it.”

Note: This article is brought to you by IPS Noram in collaboration with INPS Japan and Soka Gakkai International in consultative status with ECOSOC.

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By David Nabarro
GENEVA, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

Frustrations over the pace of climate action and the size of the finance target agreed in Baku are valid from the perspective of low-income countries, especially Small-Island Developing States (SIDS). It is also important to recognize that there has been real progress in some countries at the agri-food-nutrition-climate-water-nature-livelihoods intersection, and this seems to be particularly the case in some countries in the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation (ACF).

David Nabarro

The finance negotiations at COP29: Climate negotiations become harder as the stakes get higher. The focus of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan was on climate finance. The intention was to increase the target for finance to go to developing countries to help them protect their people and economies against climate disasters and invest into clean energy. This would come in the form of a new goal for global climate finance. Negotiating a finance goal was never going to be straightforward. It is challenging for nations to agree an amount that is fair for everyone and, at the same time, politically feasible for those that are asked to provide the cash. The last hours of COP29 in Baku were difficult and many participants felt dissatisfied when they left.

Solid floor on which to build: But the outcome – a new global goal of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, from public, private and innovative sources, with developed nations committing $300 billion per year – is a real increase on the previous target of $100bn a year. It is a solid floor on which to build. Is the amount big enough? Will it be made available to those who need it soon enough? I cannot say at this stage. Securing a sustainable future for all requires continued goodwill, engagement and collaboration. This is only possible if all concerned ensure the transparent provision, effective delivery and efficient use of promised funds. This will pave the way for greater confidence among donors and further increases in available resources.

Growing momentum on the agri-food-nutrition-climate + intersection: I sensed a greater recognition that those who produce food are affected first, and worst, by climate change, and that the numbers of people at risk of food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition are on the rise with the most affected being women and children. Agri-food systems contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions while, at the same time, having the potential to sequester carbon dioxide. That makes them quite special within climate discussions though – for now – it appears hard to bring them into the negotiations.

What is the basis for this? The contacts I have had with national food systems convenors and climate focal points, during the last two years, suggest that several governments are seeking ways to transform food systems in ways that converge their agri-food systems with climate action. They do this in ways that reflect the aspirations in the COP28 UAE declaration on Sustainable agriculture, Resilient food systems and Climate action endorsed by 160 Heads of Government last year. Some countries have come together in an ambitious Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation. There is backing available through different entities in the UN system, the UN Food Systems Coordination Hub, the Technical Cooperation Collaborative, the COP29 Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, as well as different elements of a wide ecosystem of support which is constantly inspired by the Climate Champions, regional organizations and more. There is a lot of effort being invested in streamlining and connecting these efforts.

Younger people: In COP29 there was greater engagement of younger people who were systematically welcomed and actively engaged in many events. With their consistent focus on inclusion, governance, and accountability, their participation greatly adds to the ambition and potential impact of the different processes underway.

A will to work together: COP29 was a massive and complex event involving around 60,000 people from nearly 200 countries. I saw how the different groups that were there engaged in constructive ways and I appreciated the contributions of the organizers, volunteers, participants of all ages (especially younger people), governments, local authorities, farmers, advocates, businesses, civil society, media, and others. Despite their different perspectives they engaged in constructive dialogue, all are working for sustainable and just futures. The work on food and agriculture advances well and all those I met in Baku were doing their best to work together harmoniously. Many wanted greater ambition. Some are acutely frustrated because they fear for their future and sense underlying injustice. Not all agree on what to prioritize. But overall, though, I sense remarkable momentum which is paving the way for more substantive action even if the international geopolitical context is very difficult.

Looking ahead: Climate change is an exponential and existential challenge with increasingly severe consequences for many millions of people. The work ahead is immense and increasingly ambitious and innovative actions will be required. The journey ahead requires skilfully chosen investments that foster convergent ways of working: these will be needed more than ever in the years to come. Going further and faster requires everyone to focus on maintaining connections, fostering dialogue, nurturing respect, sharing energy and sustaining trust. The interactions in Baku showed me what might be possible, and I am impatient for more. Our 4SD Foundation will continue to contribute with its focus on sustaining cross-sector, interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder convergence through structured dialogues.

David Nabarro, Strategic Director 4SD Foundation, Geneva

IPS UN Bureau

 

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