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While the memories of the past cannot be forgotten nor dismissed, the emphasis today needs to be placed firmly on achieving a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Credit: UNRWA

By Joseph Chamie and Sergio DellaPergola
PORTLAND, USA / JERUSALEM, Jan 27 2025 (IPS)

Following the long-sought cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, the major challenge for the Israelis and the stateless Palestinians is how to achieve a lasting peace that will end the disastrous cycle of death, destruction, displacement and despair.

Several major factors continue to play fundamental roles in the decades-old conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians. Among those factors are religious identities, demographics, land and the broader regional geo-political context.

Military action and terrorist acts simply won’t resolve the conflict. The major nations of the world need to be proactive in the pursuit of a plan for securing a lasting peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians

Closely related to those major factors are critical issues for achieving a solution to the conflict, including borders, refugees, civil/human rights and legal equity, authority over Jerusalem’s Holy Sites, and very importantly security.

A narrative of mutual recognition, tolerance, and pluralism should prevail. While the memories of the past cannot be forgotten nor dismissed, the emphasis today needs to be placed firmly on achieving a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

 

Recent History

Along with the defeat of the Ottoman Empire by the western powers in World War I, its territory was partitioned into several British and French Mandates.

The British Mandate for Palestine, or Mandatory Palestine, initially intended to include Transjordan, was approved over the territory west of Jordan by the League of Nations in 1922. Among its declared goals was the establishment of the Jewish national home and the development of self-governing institutions, safeguarding the civil and religious rights of all the inhabitants of Palestine, irrespective of religious affiliation and ethnicity.

The religious composition of the resident population of Mandatory Palestine at that time was approximately 10 percent Christian, 11 percent Jewish and 78 percent Muslim. Under the British, all those resident in the territory, irrespective of their religious affiliation, held Palestinian citizenship.

After many decades of violence and confrontations among the major populations of Mandatory Palestine and the various attempts by the British and others to resolve the conflict, the problem was turned over to the United Nations to resolve. By 1947, in large part due to immigration, the religious composition of the resident population of Palestine had become 7 percent Christian, 32 percent Jewish and 60 percent Muslim.

On 29 November 1947, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the resolution terminating the Mandate and dividing Palestine into two states. One state was Arab, primarily Muslim, and the other state was Jewish, with the Jerusalem area separately remaining under direct United Nations control (Figure 1).

Figure 1. The United Nations Partition Plan – 1947

 

On 14 May 1948, David Ben-Gurion declared independence of the Jewish state of Israel. The opposing side, led by Mohammed Amin al-Husseini, rejected the partition plan. War immediately erupted between the armies of neighboring Arab states and Israel.

As a consequence of the war, the demographic composition of the territory underwent significant changes. In particular was the compulsory as well as the voluntary exodus (subsequently called the Nakba) of an estimated minimum of 625-650,000 and a maximum 725-750,000 Palestinians from Israel. They included persons who lived in Palestine in 1946 and those who stayed but whose property remained within the borders of the Jewish state.

In the newly founded state of Israel with a population of 873 thousand, the proportion Jewish was 82 percent. If the Palestinians had not been displaced but had remained in their homes, the proportion Jewish in Israel in 1948 would have been about 45 percent.

Following the 1948 war and subsequent armistice, the borders of Israel expanded to 77 percent of the original territory of Mandatory Palestine, including the western part of Jerusalem. The West Bank with East Jerusalem was occupied by Transjordan, later renamed the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The Gaza area remained under occupation by Egypt. In 1950 the combined population of West Bank and Gaza contained approximately 830,000 stateless Palestinians.

Following the 1967 war, Israel began expanding Jewish settlements in the occupied territories (Figure 2). From a few families in 1968, the number of Jewish settlers grew from 69,700 in 1987 to 293,400 in 2007. By 2024, the number reached 530,000, which does not include the 245,000 residents of new neighborhoods in East Jerusalem.

Figure 2. Map of Israel, West Bank, Gaza Strip and Neighboring Countries

 

Current Demographics

Israel is a relatively small country with about the territorial size of El Salvador. At the end of 2024, Israel’s population surpassed 10 million, which is about the same size as Sweden’s population. The proportion Jewish in Israel is 77 percent, including citizens who live in East Jerusalem and the occupied territories.

The Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT), which has about one quarter of the land area of Israel, has a permanently resident population close to 5 million, plus 380,000 living in East Jerusalem.

The combined population of Israel and the OPT is approximately 15 million. In that combined population, about 51% of the residents would be Jewish.

 

Peace Proposals

The first serious peace proposal examined here is the one-state solution. It calls for establishing a nation that includes Israel, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem. A major advantage of that solution would be the creation of a secular democracy with the separation of church and state with equal rights for each of the country’s citizens.

The chief disadvantage with the one-state solution is that at least at this time, it does not appear to be a realistic political scenario. The two opposing parties in the conflict still nurture considerable mutual hostility. Moreover, both are seeking their own independent statehood sovereignty, i.e., a continuing Jewish national homeland and a newly established Palestinian national homeland.

The peace proposal that is most widely supported is the two-state solution. It remains the internationally agreed way forward and is strongly supported by the United Nations, the Security Council and the world’s major powers.

The two-state solution involves a fully sovereign, independent State of Palestine comprising the West Bank and the Gaza area, existing peacefully alongside Israel, with borders along pre-1967 lines and security ensured for both nations.

A major difficulty with the two-state solution is the lack of territorial contiguity between the two parts of the Palestinian state. Israel could facilitate the establishment of a single Palestinian state by permitting a corridor connecting the two parts of the Palestinian state while ensuring their own security.

Another difficulty is the lack of political agreement and the prevailing de facto conflict between the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza.

A third peace proposal, if acceptable to the Palestinians, is the attainment of sovereignty separately for Gaza and the West Bank. Each territory would negotiate its own autonomy, boundaries, political structure and economic sustainment with separate governments and separate membership in the United Nations. In the future, if feasible and desired, the two Palestinian states may wish to negotiate a federal configuration or a full union.

 

Conclusions

It is time to stop the killing, violence and destruction and have the Israelis and the Palestinians negotiate a peace settlement.

It is also time to recognize that on this small territory known as Palestine /Eretz Israel/the Holy Land, at least two major actors exist, each with their historical rights, ethnic solidarity, cultural heritages, languages, political autonomy and religious rituals.

The Palestinians in their proposal for a lasting peace with Israel are essentially calling for a state of their own.

The Israeli government has developed extensive plans for war to ensure its security. However, it has not offered explicit plans to resolve the post-war situation in Gaza nor on how to achieve a lasting peace with the stateless Palestinians. The Israelis do demand that their Jewish nation is not menaced nor delegitimized in attempts to secure a lasting peace with the Palestinians.

Continuation of the status quo is untenable. It is certainly not a resolution to the conflict and continues to place Israelis and Palestinians in peril.

It’s time for diplomacy that leads to a negotiated settlement and a lasting peace. Military action and terrorist acts simply won’t resolve the conflict. The major nations of the world need to be proactive in the pursuit of a plan for securing a lasting peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

Joseph Chamie in Portland, Oregon, USA is a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division.

Sergio DellaPergola in Jerusalem, Israel is Professor Emeritus and former Chairman of the Hebrew University’s Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry.

 

Credit: Simon Maina/AFP via Getty Images

By Andrew Firmin
LONDON, Jan 27 2025 (IPS)

Kenya’s young protesters are paying a high price for speaking out. Last June, a protest movement led by first-time activists from Generation Z emerged in response to the government’s Finance Bill, which would have introduced sweeping tax increases. The government quickly withdrew its plans, but protests continued, articulating anger at economic strife, elite corruption and out-of-touch politicians. The government’s response has been violent. Police have used batons, teargas and water cannon against protesters. On the worst day of violence, 25 June, when some protesters attempted to storm parliament, police fired live ammunition. Over 60 people were reported killed during the protests. At least 1,200 were reportedly arrested.

Since then, there’s been a wave of abductions of young activists. At least 82 people have reportedly been abducted by armed plainclothes groups since June. Some were taken ahead of major planned protests. More than six months after the protests began, abductions continue. While most have been released, as many as 20 people are still thought missing.

On 6 January, five young men who’d been abducted the previous month were found. Among them was Kibet Bull, known for his satirical cartoons. One of the five reported being whipped and beaten. Several others abductees describe traumatic experiences in detention, although there’s a chilling effect: many of those who’ve been released have decided not to speak out about their experiences.

Security forces deny any involvement. But a government minister, Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi, recently claimed that Kenya’s National Intelligence Service was responsible for the abduction of his son, Leslie Muturi. He was only released after President William Ruto intervened.

Ruto, whose resignation was demanded by protesters, promised on 27 December that the abductions would stop. But at the same time, he seemed unwilling to listen to activists’ demands, blaming parents for not raising their children properly and telling young people not to disrespect leaders on social media.

Now people are protesting to demand the release of the abductees and accountability for those responsible. These protests, like those before them, have been met with police violence. On 27 December, police responded to a protest calling for the release of six people with teargas and arrests. The authorities charged protesters with unlawful assembly and incitement to violence.

Protests against the abductions have continued in the capital, Nairobi, and elsewhere, as have protesters’ arrests.

In another disturbing development, youth activist Richard Otieno was attacked by three unidentified people and killed in the town of Elburgon on 18 January. He was known in the community for criticising the government and the local member of parliament, and had been arrested for taking part in the 2024 protests. His murder sparked local protests.

Police repression

Violent repression of protests has long been a problem in Kenya. In June 2023, six people died in opposition-organised protests against taxes and the high cost of living. More people were killed during the protests in June 2024, and when protesters gathered in Nairobi in October to hold a vigil for them, police lobbed teargas canisters and arrested several activists who tried to enter the park where the protest was taking place. Police also used violence against anti-femicide protests in November and December 2024.

But the current wave of abductions is a troubling further level of repression. It suggests that those in power have been seriously rattled by the emergence of a new generation of protesters and their demands, and by their persistence in the face of police violence, and are stepping up their tactics accordingly.

As well as routinely using violence against protesters, police are accused of complicity in abductions. Even if they don’t directly commit them, they’re accused of standing by and allowing them to happen, and failing to investigate them and bring justice to the victims. Few cases have been solved. As a result, the rule of law is being called into question.

Kenya is on a dangerous trajectory. As a result of the brutal crackdown on protests, in December the country’s civic space rating was downgraded to ‘repressed’, the second worst rating, on the CIVICUS Monitor, our collaborative research initiative that tracks the health of civic freedoms around the world.

Demand for change

Abductions may subdue some people who’ve found themselves at the sharp end of state violence. But they could also backfire. People who’ve argued that politicians and the state can’t be trusted are being vindicated. The result will be a further loss of trust in public institutions.

Young Kenyans have found their voice, proving their willingness to speak out, organise and demand an end to self-serving and corrupt politics. The protests were marked by creativity, full use of social media and unity across usually divisive ethnic lines. They helped inspire similar protests in several other African countries, including Nigeria and Uganda, creating a rare feeling of shared confidence that change could come. Those hopes haven’t been entirely subdued. The abductions may have silenced individuals, but the collective appetite for change hasn’t gone away.

Andrew Firmin is CIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

For interviews or more information, please contact research@civicus.org.

 

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Leaders of the centrist Second Reform Era Party hold an anti-corruption rally in central Budapest, Hungary, following the announcement of United States government sanctions against Hungarian Minister Antal Rogan for his involvement in corruption, January 2025. Credit: Catherine Wilson/IPS

By Catherine Wilson
BUDAPEST, Jan 27 2025 (IPS)

The Central European nation of Hungary is officially a democracy. But civil society, the media and democratic norms have increasingly come under threat as the Fidesz-KDNP coalition government, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has entrenched autocratic rule over the past 14 years. Now a new wave of energy and popularity is driving the younger opposition movement into the spotlight ahead of next year’s parliamentary election.

“I believe that no matter how much Fidesz has dismantled the important pillars of democracy and the rule of law and cemented its own reliable cadres in two-thirds of the votes, despite spending hundreds of billions annually on propaganda, it can still be defeated in elections,” 43-year-old Péter Magyar, leader of the Tisza (Respect and Freedom) Party in Hungary, said in a public statement. “Our country says enough is enough.”

Since winning the 2010 national election, the nationalist conservative Fidesz Party has introduced state and legislative measures that have eroded the independence of the judiciary and restricted and censored the media, while there has been greater surveillance and undermining of non-government organizations working on social issues and human rights in the country.

“Hungary is no longer a democracy, not just according to me, not just according to the opposition, but according to independent institutions. And, to be frank, according to most of the voters,” Ferenc Gelencsér, the 34-year-old member of the Hungarian Parliament for the centrist Momentum Movement Party, told IPS in Budapest.

Hungary transitioned to democracy after the end of Communist rule in 1991. Orbán, who was first elected Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002, was a vocal advocate for greater freedom, closer ties with western Europe and supported Hungary joining NATO in 1999. But, after re-election in 2010, his coalition government, which has a two-thirds majority in parliament, has moved toward a model of governance termed ‘illiberal democracy.’

Rising food prices and a struggling economy have contributed to cost of living pressures in Hungary. Credit: Catherine Wilson/IPS

It routinely changes electoral laws and constituency boundaries to its advantage and ensures the country’s major courts, institutions and media are dominated by pro-government figures.

“The rules and regulations that govern the economy, that govern political processes—everything changes depending on what is the current interest of the government party. And there is constant adjustment in a way that constitutional rules don’t really exist anymore in reality, only on paper,” Professor Zsolt Enyedi at the Democracy Institute, Central European University, in Budapest, told IPS. “It is a very uneven playing field… distorted by the fact that the financial resources of the government and pro-government media outnumber the resources of the opposition in a ratio of about 10 to 1.”

They are major factors in Fidesz’s success in the last four consecutive elections. As well, Orbán “speaks the language of average Hungarians” and “alters his rhetoric to changes in the public mood,” Enyedi added. The ruling coalition secured 54.13 percent of votes in the 2022 election, but observers deemed it severely flawed due to media bias and misuse of state resources.

Its right-wing rhetoric has also targeted supporters of human rights and voices critical of its regime. In 2021, civil society organizations, including the Hungarian Civil Liberties Union and Amnesty International, reported to the United Nations that those supporting refugees and vulnerable groups were being vilified by the government, there were frequent denials of freedom of information requests and human rights education programs were being removed from schools.

And while the constitution provides for freedom of expression, “ongoing efforts to sideline voices and perspectives that authorities find unfavourable, including many found at academic institutions, NGOs and media outlets, have discouraged open criticism of the government,” reports Freedom House, which rates Hungary as “partly free” with a score of 65 out of 100.

But Gelencsér says he speaks for the younger generation who want a different future. About 15 percent of Hungary’s population of 9.7 million people are aged 16-29 years and a study of youth published this year by the Foundation for European Progressive Studies reports that two-thirds want to live in a full democracy.

“The core voters of the Momentum [party] are under the age of 49 years and the main two things that matter to these people are democracy, rule of law and the fear of climate change. Most of our voters are looking for an alternative to the government and most of them are youngsters,” Gelencsér said. In another 2021 survey, 51 percent of young Hungarians believed their interests were not represented in national politics, a minority of one in five thought that elections were free and fair and only 19 percent trusted publicly available information.

There is also rising disillusion with the stagnant economy, corruption and poor public services. Hungary’s GDP growth declined from 7.1 percent in 2021 to -0.9 percent last year. And about three quarters of the population earn incomes below the level needed to meet the average cost of living, reports the Hungarian think tank, Equilibrium Institute.

“The atmosphere has changed. There is a general dissatisfaction with the government. In the last couple of years, especially after COVID, the economy is doing rather badly. And there is a general lack of trust in the government to manage these issues,” Enyedi said.

Ferenc Gelencser (Centre), Member of Parliament for the Momentum Movement Party, with MP Akos Hadhazy (Left) and MP Hajnal Miklos (Right), participate in a protest in Budapest in 2023, Hungary. Credit: Momentum Movement

Gelencsér added that “housing is a huge issue for the younger generation; everybody is renting, and our healthcare system and pension system are on the verge of collapse. It would be understandable if we didn’t pay any tax, but there are many different types of tax in this country, and I don’t know where it is going.”

Nepotism is prevalent in government circles and Hungary was ranked the most corrupt nation in the European Union (EU) last year by Transparency International with a score of 42 out of 100.

Increasingly, young people are voting with their feet and the number of citizens emigrating, mostly to western Europe, rose from 19,322 in 2020 to 35,736 in 2023.

But, in the last year, opposition voices have been emboldened by problems facing the government. A major scandal erupted in February 2024 when the government pardoned a man sentenced for obstructing justice in a child abuse case. In January this year, the EU cancelled 1 billion euros in funding to Hungary, which has rising state debt, due to its failure to address corruption and breach of democratic norms. And Antal Rogan, a government official, was subject to sanctions by the United States for his role in state corruption.

The Second Reform Era, a centrist party established in 2023, responded to the news. And on a late January afternoon, with the temperature close to zero, a crowd of several hundred supporters gathered on the bank of the Danube River in Budapest. Muffled in puffa jackets and woollen beanies, some holding flame-lit beacons, they came to hear party leaders call out the scourge of corruption and support for the sanctions.

But the resurgence of the Tisza Party since early last year under the new leadership of Magyar, an energetic and media-savvy lawyer and former member of the government, is galvanising a public shift. After last year’s pardon scandal, he stood to demand a new direction for the country based on transparent governance and rule of law while advocating for people’s grievances, including the neglected rural electorate. In an IDEA Institute public poll this month, Tisza led with public support of 33 percent, compared to 26 percent for the government.

‘We will give back to the country what has been taken away from it: decency, self-respect, justice and hope for a better life,’ Magyar said in a New Year’s message.

The ruling coalition will not miss any tactics to dominate the next parliamentary election in 2026. But, to date, the momentum of Tisza’s rise appears unstoppable.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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By External Source
Jan 27 2025 (IPS-Partners)

 

While Mediterranean cities are meeting to discuss ways to address food waste considering land degradation and drought, former FAO communication specialist Issam Azouri focuses on tangible solutions led by consumers.

 

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Haiti’s destiny ‘bright’ despite terrifying escalation of violence. Credit: UNOCHA/Giles Clarke
 
Young Haitians are calling for peace and stability in the troubled Caribbean nation.

By Harvey Dupiton
NEW YORK, Jan 27 2025 (IPS)

As we commemorated Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s Day on January 20, 2025—a day that also marked America welcoming its newly elected president—we honor the legacy of this civil rights leader by reflecting on his powerful words: “We are confronted with the fierce urgency of now.”

These words resonate deeply as we grapple with the ongoing struggle to sustain hope in Haiti and reclaim our pride as the first Black republic to achieve freedom, won through the sacrifice and blood of our ancestors in their fight against colonialism.

How ironic it is that today, we—descendants of those who fought for liberty—are mocked in a land that proclaims itself the “Land of the Free.” We live in fear of deportation, our only crime being forced out of our homeland by unbearable circumstances. These circumstances have been shaped, in large part, by decades of misguided foreign interventions and interference.

Since the much-acclaimed U.S. military intervention in 1994, which was intended to uphold democracy, we have instead seen the dismantling of Haiti’s military and a reversal of order in our country. For the past 30 years, we have endured chaos and anarchy fueled by ineffective Haitian leadership, propped up under American tutelage.

Unless Haiti is allowed to chart its own course, the much-touted “assistance” provided in the name of empathy will only perpetuate the root causes of our problems, dooming yet another generation of young Haitians.

Recent statements by Senator Rubio, during his confirmation hearing as Secretary of State, praising the increased deployment of troops from Kenya and El Salvador, do not inspire hope for meaningful change. These actions appear to perpetuate the same failed policies that prioritize foreign-led solutions over empowering Haitians to reclaim control of their future.

Despite this, we take a moment to extend our prayers and best wishes to Mr. Trump as he assumes the role of leader of the free world. While his previous rhetoric may have reflected misgivings about us, we remain hopeful that he will prioritize the shared interests of our two nations.

We fervently wish that his administration will support The Future We Want embodied in the Ayiti 2030 Agenda Initiative as a path toward immediate order and stability in our country.

A Call to Action

We urge all members of the Haitian community and their friends to contact their elected representatives and advocate for support of The Future We Want: The Ayiti 2030 Agenda Initiative.

The Future We Want:

1. A United Haiti – Achieved through a transitional government authority that unites all factions and the nation without foreign interference.
2. A Country of Institutions – Guided by a transitional government committed to electoral reforms, ensuring that future elections reflect the true will of the people and inspire confidence among all stakeholders, rather than devolving into superficial popularity contests.
3. A Country of Jobs – Spearheaded by a transitional government that mobilizes resources from Haitians abroad to launch a massive, community-led relief effort focused on humanitarian intervention—not foreign armed intervention—paving the way for dynamic economic innovation.

The world must know that, as a people who have cherished freedom as deeply as Americans have, we are fully capable of rebuilding our nation without divisive foreign interference.

Haiti will rise again.

Haiti shall overcome!

Harvey Dupiton is Head of United Nations Association, Haiti, and Member of the NGO Community at the United Nations

IPS UN Bureau

 

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The DR Congo is planning to build a massive dam delivering power to millions of people - but it is not easy.

Michelle Lemuya Ikeny stars in Nawi, a film that depicts the reality of child marriage in rural Kenya.

By CIVICUS
Jan 24 2025 (IPS)

 
CIVICUS speaks with Olivia Sohr about the challenges of disinformation and the consequences of the closure of Meta’s fact-checking programme in the USA. Olivia is the Director of Impact and New Initiatives at Chequeado, an Argentine civil society organisation working since 2010 to improve the quality of public debate through fact-checking, combating disinformation, promoting access to information and open data.

Olivia Sohr

In January 2025, Meta, the company that owns Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, announced the suspension of its US data verification programme. Instead, the company will implement a system where users can report misleading content. The decision came as Meta prepared for the start of the new Trump presidency. Explaining the change, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company was trying to align itself with its core value of free speech. Meta also plans to move some of its content moderation operations from California to Texas, which it says is in response to concerns about potential regional bias.

What led to Meta’s decision to end its fact-checking programme?

While the exact details of the process that led to this decision are unknown, in his announcement Zuckerberg alluded to a ‘cultural shift’ that he said was cemented in the recent US election. He also expressed concern that the fact-checking system had contributed to what he saw as an environment of ‘excessive censorship’. As an alternative, Zuckerberg is proposing a community rating system to identify fake content.

This decision is a setback for information integrity around the world. Worryingly, Meta justifies its position by equating fact-checking journalism with censorship. Fact-checking is not censorship; it’s a tool that provides data and context to enable people to make informed decisions in an environment where disinformation is rife. Decisions like this increase opacity and hamper the work of those focused on combatting disinformation.

The role of fact-checkers in Meta is to investigate and label content that is found to be false or misleading. However, decisions about the visibility or reach of such content will be made solely by the platform, which has assured that it will only reduce exposure and add context, not remove or censor content.

How the community grading system will work has not yet been specified, but the prospects are not promising. Experience from other platforms suggests that these models tend to increase disinformation and the spread of other harmful content.

What are the challenges of fact-checking journalism?

Fact-checking is extremely challenging. While those pushing disinformation can quickly create and spread completely false content designed to manipulate emotions, fact-checkers must follow a rigorous and transparent process that is time-consuming. They must constantly adapt to new and increasingly sophisticated disinformation strategies and techniques, which are proliferating through the use of artificial intelligence.

Meta’s decision to end its US verification programme makes our task even more difficult. One of the key benefits of this programme is that it has allowed us to reach out directly to those who spread disinformation, alerting them with verified information and stopping the spread at the source. Losing this tool would be a major setback in the fight against disinformation.

What are the potential consequences of this change?

Meta’s policy change could significantly weaken the information ecosystem, making it easier for disinformation and other harmful content to reach a wider audience. For Chequeado, this means we will have to step up our efforts to counter disinformation, within the platform and in other spaces.

In this scenario, verification journalism is essential, but it will be necessary to complement this work with media literacy initiatives, the promotion of critical thinking, the implementation of technological tools to streamline the work and research to identify patterns of disinformation and the vulnerability of different groups to fake news.

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Syrian children in an internally displaced people camp in Lebanon. Credit: ECW Choufany

By Joyce Chimbi
NEW YORK & NAIROBI, Jan 24 2025 (IPS)

A report released today on the International Day of Education sounds alarm as the number of school-aged children in crisis worldwide requiring urgent support to access quality education reaches a staggering 234 million—an estimated increase of 35 million over the past three years fueled by intensifying armed conflict, forced displacements, more frequent and severe weather and climatic events, and other crises.

According to the State of Education for Crisis-Affected Children and Adolescents: Access and Learning Outcomes, Global Estimates 2025 Report by Education Cannot Wait (ECW), a silent global emergency is festering as nearly a quarter of a billion crisis-affected children could be left behind the opportunity of a quality education.

“I wish I could wish you a happy International Day of Education. We have just released our Global Estimates Report 2025 showing the state of education for children and adolescents who are suffering armed conflicts, climate disasters and forced displacement. Today, we have a total number of 234 million children across over 50 armed conflict countries and contexts who do not access a quality education,” said Yasmine Sherif, ECW’s Executive Director.

“When will the world listen? We are about to hit a quarter of a billion children who cannot access a quality education while they are trying to survive in the midst of very extreme, brutal armed conflicts, brutal climate disasters or being on flight as refugees and forcibly displaced.”

Students in a temporary learning space for displaced children in Kikumbe Village, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Credit: ECW/Makangara

Of these, 85 million, or 37 percent, are already out of school due to intersecting crises. Girls make up more than half of these children (52 percent); over 20 percent are children with disabilities, and 17 percent are forcibly displaced (this includes 13 percent who are internally displaced and 4 percent who are refugees and asylum seekers). Around 75 percent of the children with disabilities, an estimated 12.5 million, are affected by high-intensity crises. These are ECW’s top priority groups.

“The rest will go to school and sit behind a desk with no school supplies, no school feeding, no reading or learning and no mental health and psychosocial services. We are speaking about extreme learning poverty. It is a disaster that is worsening from one year to the next,” Sherif emphasised.

The transition to secondary school is still a right denied to too many crisis-affected children, as nearly 36 percent of children of lower-secondary and 47 percent of upper-secondary school-aged children are unable to access education. But even when in school, many are falling behind. Only 17 percent of crisis-affected primary school-aged children are able to read by the end of primary school.

The report exposes the scale and spread of the global education crisis, provides trends over time, and supports evidence-based policymaking. The 2025 Global Estimates is the third iteration of the insightful study, first published in 2022. Today, nearly half of the crisis-affected school-aged children globally live in sub-Saharan Africa, where the road to education is long and winding. Children in the sub-region are amongst those left furthest behind.

Overall, 50 percent of out-of-school crisis-affected children, or 42 million, are concentrated in just five protracted crises in Sudan, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Pakistan. In 2024, Sudan experienced Africa’s most severe education crisis as armed conflict affected most of the country.

Sherif stressed that climate change and education are intrinsically linked, emphasizing that “while the climate-induced disasters are man-made in the global North, the ones paying the price are the people in the global South. They are the ones we have to provide with education because their education is being disrupted. Where, like in Pakistan, schools have been destroyed by floods, we need to rebuild back better so that the schools can withstand climate shocks.”

Young girls in a UNHCR relocation site in Birao, Central African Republic. Credit: ECW/Jiménez

Globally, ECW identified an estimated 234 million school-aged children and adolescents across 60 countries affected by crises. This figure defines “school-aged as one year before the legal age of entry in primary until the expected age of completion of secondary school. Widening the focus to children aged 3 years until the legal age of secondary school completion, the figure stands at 277 million.”

Despite these growing needs, the report raises concerns that humanitarian education aid funding has stagnated and, the share of total Official Development Assistance allocated to education has even declined in recent years. Stressing that failing to act perpetuates cycles of hunger, violence, disasters, extreme poverty, gender inequality, exploitation and human rights violations.

In humanitarian crises, access to quality education is not only a fundamental right; it is also lifesaving and life-sustaining. With crises intensifying and global conflicts doubling in five years, the need for action is greater than ever. Reaching all of these children requires urgent, additional financing to scale up results. ECW stresses that it is supporting Multi-Year Resilience Programmes in the majority of these crisis contexts and that all that is required to expand these programmes and reach more children with a quality holistic education is additional financing.

“The world invests more in military expenditures than in development, more in bombs than in schools. This is a call to action. As a global community, unless we start investing in the young generation—their education and future—we shall leave behind a legacy of destruction. Over USD 2 trillion are invested globally and annually in war machinery, all while a few hundred billion dollars could secure a quality education annually for children and their teachers in crises. It is time to drop the arms race and sprint for the human race,” Sherif argues.

As children cannot wait for wars to end or for the climate crisis to be resolved to have the opportunity, and their right, to learn and thrive, as by then, it would be too late, ECW urgently calls for USD 600 million in additional funding to reach at least 20 million crisis-affected girls and boys with the safety, opportunity, and hope of a quality education by 2026, accelerating progress towards realizing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Behind the numbers are children inside damaged walls of classrooms, makeshift refugee settlements, and communities torn apart by war and disaster, desperately holding on to the hope that education will help them to realize their dreams. Additional funding will facilitate access to a level of holistic education that is lifesaving and life-sustaining. According to the UN, there is a USD 100 billion annual financing gap to achieve the education targets in low- and lower-middle-income countries outlined in the SDGs.

Quality learning opportunities delivered through a whole-of-child approach keep the world’s most vulnerable children out of harm’s way, protecting them from human trafficking, sexual exploitation and being forcibly recruited into militia groups. For young minds exposed to armed conflict and climatic catastrophes, education provides a sense of normalcy, critical protection, and services such as psychosocial and menstrual hygiene support for adolescent girls, and restores hope amid the most challenging circumstances towards the best possible learning outcomes.

The global fund for education in protracted crises and emergencies works with partners such as national governments, United Nations agencies, international NGOs and grassroots organizations to deliver quality education to crisis-affected children, no matter who or where they are. Reaching over 11.4 million crisis-affected children with the safety, opportunity, and hope of a quality education.

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AI may widen inequality, but policymakers can counteract this with more effective social safety nets, reskilling programs, and regulations to promote ethical use of the technology. Credit: Chunip Wong/iStock by Getty Images via IMF

By Tristan Hennig and Shujaat Khan
WASHINGTON DC, Jan 24 2025 (IPS)

Asia-Pacific’s economies are likely to experience labor market shifts because of artificial intelligence (AI), with advanced economies being affected more. About half of all jobs in the region’s advanced economies are exposed to AI, compared to only about a quarter in emerging market and developing economies.

However, as we show in our latest Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook, there are also more jobs in the region’s advanced economies that can be complemented by AI, meaning that the technology will likely enhance productivity rather than replace these roles altogether.

The concentration of such jobs in Asia’s advanced economies could worsen inequality between countries over time. While about 40 percent of jobs in Singapore are rated as highly complementary to AI, the share is just 3 percent in Laos.

AI could also increase inequality within countries.

Most workers at risk of displacement in the Asia-Pacific region work in service, sales, and clerical support roles. Meanwhile, workers who are more likely to benefit from AI typically work in managerial, professional, and technician roles that already tend to be among the better paid professions.

As the Chart of the Week shows, we also find that women are more likely to be at risk of disruption from AI because they are more often in service, sales, and clerical roles. Men, by contrast, are more represented in occupations that are unlikely to be impacted by AI at this stage, like farm workers, machine operators, and low-skill elementary workers.

How could policymakers address the threat of worsening inequality?

First, effective social safety nets combined with reskilling programs for affected workers will be critical to achieve an inclusive AI transition.

Second, education and training to help the workforce leverage what AI makes possible will be especially relevant in Asia’s emerging economies, given that they have relatively few jobs in which AI could make workers more productive. It will also help displaced workers transition to new roles and support research and development that enhances innovation.

—This blog is based on Box 1 of the analytical note included in the October 2024 Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook. For more on AI and jobs, see IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva’s blog on labor market implications and the Chart of the Week showing which economies are better equipped for AI adoption.

Tristan Hennig is an economist on the Malaysia and Singapore desk at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Cambridge. His research interests include financial economics, monetary policy, and systemic risk.

Shujaat Khan is an economist on the Japan desk at the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. He holds a Ph.D. and master’s degree in economics from Johns Hopkins University and bachelor’s degrees in physics and economics from Middlebury College.

Source: IMF

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Nearly all children worldwide have access to free primary education, with almost 90% completing primary school. But it’s a different story for children at the pre-primary and secondary level. Credit: Shafiqul Alam Kiron/IPS

By Jo Becker
NEW YORK, Jan 23 2025 (IPS)

The International Day of Education, January 24, reminds us of the power of education to transform children’s lives, and to build vibrant, sustainable societies.

One of the most important—and simplest—things that governments can do to ensure children’s education is to make it free. In the 1990s, when many countries began to eliminate school fees at the primary level, they saw dramatic results.

Malawi, for example, abolished primary school fees in 1994, and within a year, enrolment had surged by 50 percent, with 1 million additional children enrolled. After Kenya abolished primary school fees in 2003, 2 million new children enrolled.

The sudden influx of new students strained education systems, challenging countries to train additional teachers, build more schools, and to ensure quality. But today, virtually all of the world’s children enjoy free primary education, and nearly 90 percent of children globally complete primary school.

Fewer than 60 percent of the world’s children complete secondary school, and about  half miss out on pre-primary education, which takes place during the early years when children’s brains are rapidly developing, and provides profound long-term benefits. Existing international law—dating back more than 70 years—only guarantees free education for all children at the primary level

But it’s a different story for children at the pre-primary and secondary level, where cost often remains a significant barrier to schooling.

Fewer than 60 percent of the world’s children complete secondary school, and about  half miss out on pre-primary education, which takes place during the early years when children’s brains are rapidly developing, and provides profound long-term benefits. Existing international law—dating back more than 70 years—only guarantees free education for all children at the primary level.

In Uganda, for example, our recent investigation with the Initiative for Social and Economic Rights found that most children miss out on pre-primary education entirely, because the government provides no funding for early childhood education, and families are unable to afford the fees charged by private preschools.

Without access to pre-primary, children typically don’t perform as well in primary school, are twice as likely to repeat grades, and are more likely to drop-out. Many of these children never catch up to their peers, exacerbating income inequality.

According to the World Bank, every dollar invested in pre-primary education can yield up to $14 in benefits. Early education boosts tax revenues and GDP by improving children’s employment prospects and earnings, and enables parents—especially mothers—to increase their income by returning to work sooner.

In Uganda, a recent cost-benefit analysis found that 90 percent of the cost of government-funded free pre-primary could be covered just through the expected reduction of repetition rates and inefficiencies at the primary school level. It concluded that “investments in early childhood have the greatest rate of return of any human capital intervention.”

As part of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), all countries have agreed that by 2030 they will provide access to pre-primary education for all, and that all children will complete free secondary education. But political commitments to free education are simply not enough, and progress is too slow.

A growing number of countries see the expansion of free education beyond primary school as an essential investment.

Ghana, for example, became the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to expand free education to the kindergarten years in 2008, guaranteeing two years of free and compulsory pre-primary education.

In 2017, it committed to full free secondary education, and according to the latest statistics, now has the third-highest enrolment rate in Sub-Saharan Africa in both pre-primary and secondary school. Its free secondary education policy has reduced poverty rates nationally, particularly for female-headed households.

It’s no surprise that UNESCO reports that countries with laws guaranteeing free education have significantly higher rates of children in school. When Azerbaijan adopted legislation providing three years of free pre-primary education, for example, participation rates shot up from 25 percent to 83 percent in four years.

Given the proven benefits of free education, it’s baffling that approximately 70 percent of the world’s children live in countries that still do not guarantee free pre-primary and free secondary education by law or policy.

In July 2024, the UN Human Rights Council approved a proposal from Luxembourg, Sierra Leone, and the Dominican Republic to consider a new international treaty to explicitly guarantee free public pre-primary (beginning with one year) and free public secondary education for all children

To be sure, a new treaty will not immediately get every child in school. But it will provide a powerful impetus for governments to move more quickly to expand access to free education and an important tool for civil society to hold them to account.

Negotiations for the proposed treaty are expected to begin in September. Governments should seize this moment to advance free education for all children, without exception.

Jo Becker is children’s rights advocacy director at Human Rights Watch.

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The United Nations Security Council met on January 17, 2025 to discuss the situation in Syria and the Middle East. Credit: UN Photo/Loey Felipe

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 23 2025 (IPS)

Thirteen years of extended conflict, economic downturns, and multiple earthquakes, has left Syria in the midst of a severe humanitarian crisis. Hostilities remain abundant across all of Syria’s governorates, with each facing widespread civilian displacements and damage to critical infrastructures. Following the change of government in December of 2024, Syrian refugees have begun returning from neighbouring countries. However, this return has been marred with insecurity due to the sheer scale of unexploded ordnance, which has resulted in numerous civilian casualties.

December 2024 saw the end of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime due to a series of offensive missions coordinated by the Syrian opposition. Subsequently, the Syrian Transitional Government, headed by Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir, has facilitated the transfer of power and will act as the head of state until 1 March 2025.

According to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the end of Assad’s rule led to an eruption of hostilities across Syria, mainly concentrated in eastern Aleppo, Al-Hasakah, Ar-Raqqa, Quneitra, and regions along the Tishreen Dam. Between January 16 and 18, at least three civilians were killed and 14 injured from extensive shelling in Menbij, Ain al-Arab, and surrounding areas. On January 17, a bombing led to the damaging of several civilian infrastructures, including shops, ambulances, and healthcare centers.

Intensified violence had also led to the Tishreen Dam becoming damaged and non-functional for the past six weeks, depriving 413,000 people in Menbij and Ain-al Arab of water and electricity. The Menbij National Hospital has also been compromised due to lootings, with medical equipment, ambulances, and generators being at low stock, making healthcare efforts increasingly difficult. Repair efforts have been impeded due to persisting insecurity.

Heightened insecurity and displacement has plunged Syria into a state of economic emergency. Devaluation of Syrian currency and inflation have made the cost of food and other basic goods nearly inaccessible for the vast majority of the Syrian people. Poverty in Syria has been described as “near universal” by the International Rescue Committee (IRC), with approximately 90 percent of Syrians being financially insecure.

Living conditions for the majority of Syrians have exacerbated significantly in the past two months. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that approximately 13 million people struggle with extreme hunger. Additionally, IRC estimates that over 100,000 children under five years old suffer from acute malnutrition.

636 displacement shelters have had their water, sanitation, and hygiene services suspended due to underfunding, leaving approximately 636,000 people without access to clean water. OCHA states that the situation is particularly dire in northeast Syria, with 24,600 internally displaced persons (IDPs) residing in 204 collective shelters in dire need of water, latrine service, heating, winter clothing, and mental health support.

Poor sanitation and overcrowding in displacement shelters has led to the emergence of a cholera outbreak in Syria. Disease outbreaks have been a persistent threat in Syria since the eruption of hostilities and have significantly worsened in late 2024. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been over 200 confirmed cases of cholera in Syria.

WHO, in collaboration with UNICEF, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and local health authorities, launched a 10-day oral cholera vaccination campaign in Syria and managed to reach 100 percent vaccine utilization. However, due to compromised water systems and inadequate sanitation infrastructure, Syrians remain particularly vulnerable to future outbreaks. Humanitarian organizations such as UNICEF and WHO have begun winterization efforts to protect Syrians in displacement shelters from the spread of influenza-like illnesses.

According to a 2025 situation overview from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are currently about 7.2 million internally displaced people in Syria, as well as 6.2 million refugees, primarily based in Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon, Türkiye, and Jordan. Additionally, rates of displacement have increased significantly since the transition of power, with approximately 627,000 people, including 275,000 children, having been displaced across the country, especially in Idlib and Aleppo.

In a situation report from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), it has been confirmed that over 125,000 Syrian refugees have returned from neighbouring countries as of December 2024, with most of these returnees being concentrated in the Aleppo, Ar-Raqqa and Dara’a governorates.

Returnees and displaced Syrians are particularly vulnerable to unexploded ordnance. According to estimates from UNICEF, there are over 300,000 mines spread across the country. In December of 2024 alone, there have been at least 116 instances of children being killed or injured by unexploded ordnance, averaging about 4 cases per day. According to the humanitarian organization Humanity & Inclusion, approximately 14 million people are at risk of being injured or killed by explosive munitions.

“Girls and boys in the country continue to suffer the brutal impact of unexploded ordnance at an alarming rate. It’s the main cause of child casualties in Syria right now and has been for many years, and will continue to be. Every step they take carries the risk of an unimaginable tragedy,” said Ricardo Pires, UNICEF Communication Manager for Emergencies.

The United Nations and its partners remain on the frontlines of this crisis to assist vulnerable populations in Syria as they navigate this transitional period. UNICEF’s Syria Humanitarian Action for Children (HAC) appeal for 2025 seeks 488 million dollars in funding in order to scale up responses. So far, only 11 percent of this fund has been secured.

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