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A new UN Advisory Body is expected to make recommendations on international governance of AI. The members of the AI Advisory Body – launched October 2023 by Secretary-General António Guterres – will examine the risks, opportunities and international governance of these technologies. Credit: Unsplash/Steve Johnson

By Nandan Nilekani and Tanuj Bhojwani
BANGALORE, India, Feb 5 2024 (IPS)

India is on the brink of a transformation that could change its economic and social future.

Before the end of this decade, more Indians will use AI every day than in any other country in the world. What’s more, people in advanced economies will be surprised by the ways the country will use AI.

India is on the cusp of a technological revolution that could alter the trajectory of its social and economic future, and in this revolution. there are lessons for the rest of the world.

Our prediction hinges on three facts: India needs it, India is ready for it, and India will do it.

India needs it

The concept of “China plus one” has been gaining traction, with its admonition that global companies should not depend inordinately on China for their manufacturing and software needs.

India, with its growing infrastructure investments, favorable policies, and young working population, is the most likely beneficiary of this shift. It is perhaps the only country poised to match the scale of China.

With 1.4 billion people, India is closer to a continent than a country. Its population is almost twice that of Europe. But the average age in India is 28, compared with Europe’s 44, which means a higher share of the population is of working age. This is the starting point: India is a very large country of very young people.

This demographic dividend, favorable global trends, and the unlocking of decades of suppressed potential are starting to show returns. Even as the macroeconomic projections for most of the world seem modest or bleak, India remains a bright spot. These young Indians are aspirational and motivated to use every opportunity to better their lives.

What really sets India apart from the West are its unique challenges and needs. India’s diverse population and complex socioeconomic concerns mean that AI there is not just about developing cutting-edge technology. It’s about finding innovative solutions to address pressing problems in health care, education, agriculture, and sustainability.

Though our population is just double the size of Europe’s, we are much more diverse. Indians, like Europeans, are often bi- or multilingual. India recognizes 19,500 dialects spoken by at least 10,000 people. Based on data from the Indian census, two Indians selected at random have only a 36 percent chance of speaking a common language.

This language barrier is complicated by the fact that the official literacy rate in the country hovers near 77 percent, varying vastly between states. This means that roughly 1 in 4 people can’t read or write. Even though the government tries to provide welfare assistance for its most vulnerable, it’s hard to spread awareness about the service and reach the last mile.

Filling out a simple form to access welfare can be daunting for someone who is illiterate. Determining eligibility for assistance means depending on someone who can read, write, and navigate the bureaucracy.

Actually. receiving services means assistance seekers must have an agent helping them who is not misinformed—or worse, corrupt. These barriers disproportionately affect those who need government assistance the most.

We have the ability to solve a lot of problems for our population, but the hard part has always been in the distribution, not the solution. In India, we believe that AI can help bridge this access gap.

AI enables people to access services directly with their voice using natural language, empowering them to help themselves. As Canadian writer William Gibson aptly said, “The future is already here—it’s just not evenly distributed.” Nowhere is this more glaringly evident than in India.

The rest of the world has been eyeing AI with curiosity, waiting for real-use cases. In India, we see potential today. While this may be true of many other developing economies, the other important factor is that.

The rest of the world has been eyeing AI with curiosity, waiting for real-use cases. In India, we see potential today.

India is ready for it

India’s population isn’t just young, it is connected. According to the country’s telecommunications sector regulator, India has more than 790 million mobile broadband users. Internet penetration continues to increase, and with the availability of affordable data plans, more and more people are online. This has created a massive user base for AI applications and services.

But where India has surpassed all others is in its digital public infrastructure. Today, nearly every Indian has a digital identity under the Aadhaar system. The Aadhaar is a 12-digit unique identity number with an option for users to authenticate themselves digitally—that is, to prove they are who they claim to be.

Further, India set up a low-cost, real-time, interoperable payment system. This means that any user of any bank can pay any other person or merchant using any other bank instantly and at no cost.

This system—the Unified Payments Interface—handles more than 10 billion transactions a month. It is the largest real-time payment system in the world and handles about 60 percent of real-time payment transactions worldwide.

With the success of these models, India is embracing innovation in open networks as digital public infrastructure. Take the example of Namma Yatri, a ride-hailing network built in collaboration with the union of auto-rickshaw drivers in Bangalore and launched in November 2022.

These drivers have their own app, with a flat fee to use it, no percentage commission and no middleman. The app has facilitated close to 90,000 rides a day, almost as many as ride-hailing companies in the city.

Unlike Western countries, which have legacy systems to overhaul, India’s tabula rasa means that AI-first systems can be built from the ground up. The quick adoption of digital public infrastructure is the bedrock for these technologies.

Such infrastructure generates enormous amounts of data, and thanks to India’s Account Aggregator framework, the data remain under the citizens’ control, further encouraging public trust and utilization. With this solid footing, India is well positioned to lead the charge in AI adoption.

India will do it

In September 2023, the Indian government, in collaboration with the EkStep foundation, launched the PM-Kisan chatbot. This AI chatbot works with PM-Kisan, India’s direct benefit transfer program for farmers, initiated in 2019 to extend financial help to farmers who own their own land.

Access to the program, getting relevant information, and resolving grievances was always a problem for the farmers. The new chatbot gives farmers the ability to know their eligibility and the status of their application and payments using just their voice. On launch day more than 500,000 users chatted with the bot, and features are being released slowly to ensure a safe and risk-managed rollout.

These steps are part of an encouraging trend of early adoption of new technology by the Indian government. But the trend extends beyond the government. India’s vibrant tech ecosystem has taken off as well, a direct offshoot of its booming IT exports—currently at nearly $250 billion a year.

Next to those from the US, the largest number of developers on GitHub, a cloud-based service for software development, are from India. This sector not only innovates but also widely adopts digital public infrastructure.

The effect is cyclical: start-ups feed the growing tech culture and, in turn, leverage the data to build more precise and beneficial AI tools. India’s dynamic start-up ecosystem, moreover, is actively working on AI solutions to address various challenges.

AI can be a game changer in education as well, helping close the literacy gap. AI technologies are uniquely positioned to help students learn in their native languages, as well as learn English. AI’s applications are useful not only for students; they extend to teachers, who are often overwhelmed by administrative tasks that detract from teaching.

As AI takes over routine tasks in government and start-ups, the roles of teachers and students evolve, and they form dynamic partnerships focused on deep learning and meaningful human interaction.

What India needs is a strategic plan to chase down the most important opportunities for AI to help. The trick is not to look too hard at the technology but to look at the problems people face that existing technology has been unable to solve.

And organizations such as EkStep have stepped up with a mission called People+AI. Instead of putting AI first, they focus on the problems of people. This has led to surprising new uses unique to India.

India’s emerging status as a technological powerhouse, combined with its unique socioeconomic landscape, puts it in a favorable position to be the world’s most extensive user of AI by the end of this decade.

From streamlining education to aiding in social protection programs, AI has the potential to deeply penetrate Indian society, effecting broad and meaningful change.

Nandan Nilekani is the chairman and cofounder of Infosys and founding chairman of UIDAI (Aadhaar); Tanuj Bhojwani is head of People+AI

Source: IMF Finance & Development

Opinions expressed in articles and other materials are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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The road to COP29 has begun in earnest in the backdrop of a global climate report indicating that not only was 2023 the warmest year in a 174-year climate record, it was the warmest by far. Record-breaking temperatures, combined with El Niño, pushed vulnerable and poor nations in the Global South to the frontlines of […]

James Landale travels with the UK Africa minister to northern Ethiopia, where the situation is deteriorating.

Passengers board a public bus in Havana. In recent years, some 40 hybrid buses (alternating diesel and electricity), a technology that saves 25 to 30 percent of fuel and generates less pollution, have been added to public transport in the Cuban capital. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

By Luis Brizuela
HAVANA, Feb 5 2024 (IPS)

Jorge Sarmientos said he made a good investment when he bought an electric motorcycle to get around and avoid the anxiety suffered by the users of Cuba’s deficient public transportation system or the high prices of private alternatives.

“It was expensive, but I gained independence,” Sarmientos, a Havana-based accountant, told IPS. “Transportation has never been good here. When there is no shortage of buses, there are shortages of spare parts or fuel. Prices should be lowered or there should be facilities for more people to acquire electric vehicles.”"Transportation has never been good here. When there is no shortage of buses, there are shortages of spare parts or fuel. Prices should be lowered or there should be facilities for more people to acquire electric vehicles." -- Jorge Sarmientos

Official data indicate that half a million electric motorcycles are on the roads in this Caribbean island nation of 11 million inhabitants, a form of transportation that helps people and families get around.

Over the last decade, the use of electric vehicles has increased in Cuba, based on customs authorizations for their importation.

More recently, the domestic industry has begun to assemble different models, including electric bicycles and three-wheelers, using parts imported largely from China.

But the fact that they are mainly sold in foreign currency is a hurdle to expanding sales.

The cheapest models in state-owned stores exceed 1,000 dollars, while others go for as much as 6,000 dollars.

In Cuba, the average monthly salary is equivalent to about 35 dollars according to the official exchange rate, or about 16 dollars in the informal market.

According to reports, almost 40 hybrid buses (alternating diesel and electricity) have been added to Havana’s deteriorated fleet of public buses in recent years, a technology that saves 25 to 30 percent of fuel and is less polluting.

But the severe internal economic crisis and the shortage of foreign currency are hindering actions to increase the number of 100 percent electric vehicles in order to gradually decarbonize public transportation.

Some companies and institutions have acquired electric cars, which bring reductions in maintenance costs.

Electric three-wheelers or ecotaxis help alleviate transportation problems in the municipality of Boyeros, one of the 15 that make up the Cuban capital. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

 

Local solutions

In the case of Havana, from 2019 to 2023 the Neomovilidad project was implemented, which among its objectives aimed to strengthen the regulatory framework for an efficient transition to a low-emission urban transportation system.

In addition to prioritizing variables such as a gender approach and the inclusion of different age groups, the project provided a pilot public bicycle rental station, run by a local development project led by young people.

It also created three routes of three-wheeled electric ecotaxis driven mainly by women in outlying neighborhoods of Boyeros, one of the 15 municipalities that make up Havana.

The three-wheelers are light, motorized vehicles with a capacity for six passengers in the back, similar to the autorickshaws or tuktuks that are common in Asia. Here they are also called motocarros or mototaxis.

“I think they are a great option for getting around quickly over short distances, and at affordable prices,” retiree Gloria Almaguer, a resident of the Fontanar neighborhood in Boyeros, told IPS. “The bad thing is that there are not enough to cover demand, they can carry only a few people, and there are certain times of day when they ‘vanish’.”

The Neomovilidad project was executed by Havana’s General Directorate of Transportation, implemented by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) office in Cuba and financed by the Global Environment Facility (GEF).

Other fleets of ecotaxis provide service in the capital’s municipalities of Old Havana, Central Havana, Guanabacoa, Playa and Plaza de la Revolución, also with UNDP support. These are all initiatives that contribute to the national commitment to mitigate climate change.

With routes ranging from two to four kilometers and low prices, a little more than a hundred of these vehicles help provide a solution for sustainable micro-mobility in urban areas.

In other Cuban cities, similar three wheelers with internal combustion engines are in service.

One challenge is that the vast majority of ecotaxis and electric vehicles depend on the national electric grid to recharge their batteries. The ecotaxis recharge during the night at their terminals in the parking lots of public entities, and privately owned vehicles do so at their owners’ homes.

This is because so far there is no infrastructure that would allow electric vehicles to be recharged in a network of service stations.

Around 95 percent of Cuba’s electricity generation relies on fossil fuels.

The government considers it a matter of national security to transform the energy mix, and aims for more than 30 percent of electricity to come from clean energies by 2030, a goal that will be difficult to achieve due to the need for a high level of investment.

Passengers try to board an old vehicle operating as a private cab in Havana. In the Cuban capital, around 25 percent of the estimated total number of passengers resort to private cabs with fixed routes, known as almendrones, which are heavy consumers of gasoline or diesel and are not affordable to everyone. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

 

New fuel prices

A majority of the Cuban population depends on the public transportation system, based mainly on buses and other fossil fuel-consuming vehicles.

In Havana, home to 2.1 million inhabitants, “less than 300 buses are working, a city that in the 1980s had 2,500 buses and only four years ago had 600,” said Transport Minister Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila during a television appearance in October 2023.

The greatest impact falls on those with the lowest purchasing power, since buses are the most affordable means of transportation.

The panorama is similar in Cuba’s other 14 provinces. Alternative transport in urban, suburban and rural settlements includes modified trucks, traditional horse-drawn carriages and bicycle cabs which carry one or two passengers and are pedaled by the driver.

In Havana, estimates place the total number of passengers who use private transport at around 25 percent, generally in old U.S.-made cars, the so-called “almendrones” – private cabs with fixed routes – which run on gasoline or diesel and are not affordable for everyone.

Together with the deterioration of the vehicle fleet, the chronic shortage of spare parts, lubricants and other supplies, and the migration of drivers to sectors with greater economic benefits, the fuel shortage has been one of the main causes of the irregular public transportation service, which has been accentuated in the last five years.

“You can spend an hour waiting, or more. A lot of times I’m late for class, even though I get up very early. I can’t afford a private car every day. It’s increasingly difficult to get anywhere,” stressed architecture student Yenia Hernández in an interview with IPS, as she waited at a bus stop with dozens of other people in the Central Havana municipality.

 

A train travels along a railroad track in Cuba’s capital. A majority of the population depends on the public transportation system, based mainly on buses, trucks and trains, which consume fossil fuels. CREDIT: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

 

Energy crises have become more recurrent since 2019, in parallel with the decline of the domestic economic situation and the lack of foreign currency.

According to the authorities, this situation has multiple causes, from breach of contract by suppliers to U.S. government sanctions that hinder access to credit and services from international banks.

In 2021 Cuba imported 126,000 tons of gasoline, in 2022 some 192,000 tons, and in 2023 around 203,000 tons. Despite the increase, the figure remains below the demand of about 360,000 tons, Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy said in a televised statement on Jan. 8.

On the other hand, this island nation needs 1.8 billion dollars to cover its annual diesel needs.

“In 2023, 609,000 tons of diesel could be imported, for about 600 million dollars (one third),” added the Energy and Mines Minister.

As of Feb. 1, an increase in the price of gasoline and diesel was planned, in order to bring the selling price in Cuban pesos in line with the official rate of the dollar, regulate sales and sell a portion only through dollar-backed cards, in order to guarantee resupply with the foreign currency, according to the government.

But the measure was postponed until further notice due to a “cybersecurity incident” caused by “a virus from abroad” that affected the system of fuel sales, which is being investigated, official information said.

The strategy to eliminate subsidies projects, as of Mar. 1, an increase in interprovincial transportation fares, with hikes of almost three times the cost of bus fares and six to seven times the cost of train tickets.

While the fares for part of the public transport service will remain unchanged, in the case of Havana, the fare for electric three wheelers will rise from four to 10 pesos (0.03 to 0.08 dollars).

The increases in fuel prices and transportation fares are in addition to the package of provisions that includes tax and tariff modifications as of Jan. 1 and which, according to government officials, are aimed at “rectifying distortions” in the economy and boosting its recovery.

“The only thing I see is that some transportation will be more expensive, but there won’t necessarily be more vehicles, or more modern vehicles with better service,” Reynaldo Martín, an electrical engineer living in Old Havana, told IPS. “Wages remain the same and that means I can’t even dream of buying a bicycle.”

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By Melek Zahine
KABUL, Afghanistan, Feb 2 2024 (IPS)

Two months ago, an opinion piece I wrote, “The Cries of Gaza Reach Afghanistan,” was published with the hope of reminding American and other Western leaders of how quickly wars ON terror descend into wars OF terror because of their disproportionate impact on civilians and the unpredictability once unleashed.

The United States and its Western alliance of ‘forever wars’ since 9/11 were all entered under the pretext of defeating terrorism. Instead, they strengthened the political and military standing of those they aimed to destroy while simultaneously causing unimaginable suffering for millions of civilians, including their own citizens.

According to Brown University’s Cost of War Project and various other independent research groups, a catastrophic 4.5 million direct and indirect deaths are attributed to Western efforts to “defeat terrorism” since 9/11.

If Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and Libya have taught us anything, it should be this. Today, the Taliban once again rules Afghanistan, and Iraq, after years of sectarian violence resulting from the U.S. invasion has moved closer to the political influence of Iran. In Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s autocratic rule remains firmly in place. The U.S./European NATO-led air war to rid Libya of Muammar Qaddafi and usher in democracy in 2011 was so naively executed that no consideration was paid to how such a reckless, violent endeavor would ultimately trigger a civil war, terrorism, and mass migration. In Yemen, U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s war against Houthi rebels has led to the deaths of more than 200,000 Yemenis and strengthened the Houthis to the point where, for the “first time in history, a naval blockade is being successfully enacted” by a non-state actor with “no navy and cheap, low-grade technology.”

The same hubris that has blinded the West’s addiction to answering terrorism with war since 9/11 is the same hubris and hypocrisy that fuels its unconditional support for Israel’s war against Hamas today. To be clear, the attacks of Hamas on October 7, like the attacks of Al Qaeda on 9/11, deserve the harshest global condemnation and a proportional, strategic response that respects international law. It does not justify the unconditional support and shielding of Israel’s punitive war on Gaza’s unarmed civilian population, its civilian infrastructure, and its cultural and religious heritage while further risking the lives of the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas. Moreover, this war serves no military objective for Israel and offers no strategic benefit for those aiding and abetting Israel’s war from Washington, London, and various EU capitals.

In seeking to wipe out Hamas, all that Israel and its supporters led by the United States are doing is wiping out Gaza. In 100 days, Israel has succeeded in decimating 4 percent of Gaza’s population. Ninety thousand men, women, and children in the Gaza Strip have been killed, seriously injured, or disappeared. 75% of those killed are women and children (Source: Euro-Med Monitor), not Hamas fighters.

If Gaza was called an open-air prison before this war, now it’s an open-air graveyard. A closer look at the 4 percent shows an even bigger tragedy unfolding by the minute. Unchallenged by those who are supplying it with arms and political cover, Israel is targetting Palestinian healthcare workers, humanitarian relief specialists, journalists, artists, poets, civil society activists, and educators, along with their families. As if the killing of Gaza’s children and its brightest wasn’t enough, Israel, through the collaboration of its Western allies, is also obliterating Gaza’s residential and public service infrastructure.

According to a Wall Street Journal satellite imagery survey, “Israel has bombarded and destroyed 70 percent of homes in Gaza.” According to the W.H.O., “none of Gaza’s 36 hospitals are functioning,” and universities, including its primary medical teaching college, have been blown up by the I.D.F. Even places of worship, mosques, and churches, historically places of refuge during times of war, haven’t been spared the wrath of the Israeli-Western assault on Gaza.

Investigations conducted by The Washington Post and Truthout state, “Israel has deployed over 22,000 U.S. produced bombs on Gaza including 2,000-pound ‘bunker bombs’ which experts warn are not meant for densely populated areas as well as white phosphorus produced by munitions manufacturer, the Pine Bluff Arsenal, in the U.S. state of Arkansas (source: Arkansas Times) and supplied to Israel by the U.S. government over the years. Despite massive protests in major U.S. cities calling for a cease-fire, President Biden has bypassed Congress on two occasions to get even more weapons to Israel. The U.K. and Europe, for their part, have also continued to supply key weapons to Israel since the start of the war (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) despite loud calls from their citizens for an immediate cease-fire.

When asked about these atrocities, the only reply from Israeli, American, British, and European officials is, “Do you condemn Hamas?” The answer should always be yes, but Hamas’s crimes against Israeli citizens on October 7 are not a license for Israel and the West to kill, maim, and displace the entire unarmed civilian population of Gaza. Furthermore, Israel’s reasoning that Hamas is using the civilians of Gaza as human shields and, therefore, justified in deploying any form of military action it deems necessary is not war but a crime against humanity. It’s also a disingenuous argument meant to create a fog of war repeated with criminal negligence by countless U.S., U.K., and European leaders and government officials.

It’s hard to imagine today, but the suffering being inflicted upon two million Palestinians and the remaining 132 Israeli hostages in Gaza, fatefully connected by history, geography, and the tragic events of October 7, will eventually come to an end. Perhaps the historic ruling by the International Criminal Court of Justice (I.C.J.) will prevail, but this could take months. In the meantime, the atrocities being committed on Gazans will intensify, and the plight of the Israeli hostages will enter an even darker, more desperate stage.

The recent ruling of the world’s highest court, while legally binding, doesn’t have the power of enforcement. Furthermore, the court’s order to Israel to “take measures which prevent further harm on Palestinians” without actually ordering a cease-fire fails to take into consideration the entrenched and sick appetite for war that exists between the world’s political elites who are not providing their unconditional support for Israel’s war on the civilian population of Gaza, but participating and profiting from it.

According to EuroMed Monitoring, “Since the I.C.J.’s ruling, Israel has maintained its rate of killing in Gaza” with either no or muted reactions from Western leaders. The fury but also the inertia of powerful states, regardless of political governance and persuasion, is virtually impossible to stop once their war machines are set in motion. It’s no different for Israel.

It took the United States twenty years to end its war in Afghanistan and almost ten years in Iraq. It still maintains counter-terrorism operations with Saudi Arabia in Yemen despite the deadly impact on Yemeni civilians. Europe continues its unwavering support for continued war in Ukraine for no reason other than political arrogance. Russia, for its part, despite its upper hand in Ukraine, continues to fight with devastating consequences for both Russians and Ukrainians. So, why should Netanyahu and his war cabinet be counted on to rein in their war in Gaza? Like their militarily powerful peers, Israel’s warmongering has no bounds.

The entire population of Northern Gaza is now internally displaced, forced by Israel to move south towards Rafah on the Egyptian border. Despite the I.C.J.’s ruling, Israel has intensified its ground operation towards Rafah, where hundreds of thousands from the North of Gaza are already taking refuge on the outskirts of the city, living for weeks in a harsh desert landscape. If Israel continues its violent push into Rafah as it has warned Egypt it plans to do, the entire population of Gaza will be trapped in a tiny corner of the desert with no protection and no safe passage out.

Those who survive the daily air strikes are now dying of hunger, disease, and injuries left untreated because of the destruction of Gaza’s health care system. Two million people are now also forced to endure the extreme traumas of trying to survive without any viable shelter, food, clean water and sanitation, electricity, and safe passage while surrounded by constant air and ground bombardment, snipers, drone attacks, the cold and rain of winter and perhaps worse of all the inaction of world leaders who have it in their power to end Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza and, now it’s frightening assault on the civilian population of the West Bank, where Hamas isn’t even in power.

Only the United States, specifically President Biden, is uniquely positioned to pressure Israel to respect each of the I.C.J’s rulings. Perhaps, given its reliance on war as an answer to every foreign policy challenge since 9/11, the United States has forgotten it also has something called soft power- something it has sorely neglected the past twenty years.

The easiest way for President Biden to prove that he and the United States are still committed to international law is by announcing his personal support for an immediate cease-fire and showing proof that he’s pressuring Israel to do the same. He will also need to push for a robust and independent humanitarian assistance effort without any interference from Israel at either border crossing into Gaza.

Of course, all of this assumes that President Biden is willing to stop listening to the impenetrable wall of aides and advisors he’s created around himself and start seeing with his own eyes the scale of the suffering and the dire risks of a wider, regional war that is already endangering American lives.

According to a confidential source with extensive U.S. foreign policy experience, the deadly attack on U.S. troops on the border between Jordan and Syria this past week “exhibits how even the projection of U.S. military power serves to fuel conflict rather than mitigate it.” For totally preventable reasons, now the families of these American soldiers can join all the Palestinian and Israeli lives torn apart by the sheer insanity of this preventable war and unfolding humanitarian disaster.

Above all, President Biden needs to start hearing the calls of his fellow citizens, including the many thousands of Jewish Americans, who are demanding that their taxes and their nation not be used to wage yet another senseless war in their names. A failure to do so will have unimaginable consequences not just for Israelis and Palestinians but for the world.

IPS UN Bureau

 

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