Africa

Die Geoökonomisierung der Weltwirtschaft kann fatale Folgen haben, vor allem für rohstoffabhängige oder politisch instabile Entwicklungsländer.

Global life expectancy at birth has increased from 46 years in 1950 to 74 in 2025, with a growing number of individuals reaching centenarian status. Credit: Shutterstock

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Jan 16 2026 (IPS)

Ageing and shrinking populations are becoming more prevalent in many countries around the world.

A growing number of governments are now grappling with these dual demographic challenges, which are becoming increasingly apparent. The demographic challenges posed by ageing and shrinking populations have significant impacts on society, affecting various economic, social, and political issues.

Governments are increasingly being forced to address the economic impact of supporting a growing number of retirees who are living longer with a decreasing number of workers. These changes are starting to have noticeable effects on pension programs, healthcare systems, and social safety nets.

In approximately 63 countries and areas, which make up about 28 percent of the world’s population of 8.2 billion in 2024, the size of their population has peaked before 2024 and is now shrinking. In 48 countries and areas, representing 10 percent of the world’s population in 2024, the population size is projected to peak within the next fifty years (Figure 1).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

In the remaining 126 countries or areas, accounting for 62% of the world’s population, their populations are expected to continue growing until 2055, potentially reaching a peak later in the 21st century or beyond.

In addition to populations shrinking, many countries have experienced a “historic reversal” in their age structures. This significant demographic milestone occurs when the percentage of individuals aged 65 and older exceeds the percentage of those aged 17 and younger. In simpler terms, it is when older adults outnumber children in a population.

The first historic reversal took place in Italy in 1995 during the 20th century. Five years later, it occurred in six more countries: Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Spain.

By 2025, 55 countries and areas had experienced a historic reversal, with more countries expected to undergo the same soon. Particularly striking are the demographics of Italy and Japan, where besides having shrinking populations, the percentage of people aged 65 and older is roughly twice as large as the percentage of those aged 17 and younger (Figure 2).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

The primary demographic forces driving the ageing and shrinking of populations are fertility rates below replacement levels, increased longevity, and limited immigration.

Globally, more than half of all countries and areas have a fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman, which is considered replacement level fertility.

In many cases, the fertility rates of countries in 2024 have dropped significantly below replacement levels. For example, South Korea (0.73), China (1.01), Italy (1.21), Japan (1.22), Canada (1.34), Germany (1.45), Russia (1.46), United Kingdom (1.55), United States (1.62), and France (1.64) all have fertility rates below replacement levels (Figure 3).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

Global life expectancy at birth has increased from 46 years in 1950 to 74 in 2025, with a growing number of individuals reaching centenarian status. In 50 countries and areas, immigration is expected to mitigate future declines in population size.

One action to address ageing and shrinking populations is to recognize demographic realities and tailor governmental policies and programs accordingly.

However, many governments are hesitant to accept the ageing and shrinking of their populations. These governments have implemented strategies aimed at combating these significant demographic trends.

Around 55 countries have adopted policies and incentives aimed at increasing their fertility rates in hopes of reversing the ageing and shrinking of their populations. However, considering recent global trends and various economic, social, developmental, cultural, and personal factors, it seems unlikely that today’s low fertility rates will return to the replacement level any time soon.

Various policies have been implemented to address ageing and shrinking populations. These policies are wide ranging and include increasing taxes, raising retirement ages, enhancing productivity, increasing female labor force participation, permitting medically assisted suicide, relying on immigration of workers, promoting equality between men and women, and reducing expenditures on pensions and healthcare for older adults (Table 1).

 

Source: Author’s compilation.

 

Most governments are investing significant financial resources in pensions and healthcare for older individuals. Some government officials argue that spending money on the elderly, while their workforce populations are declining, is not economically sound.

They believe that excessive expenditures on the older adults yield little on investment and is an unadvised economic practice. They suggest raising the retirement age to receive pensions and encouraging people to continue working in old age, particularly those who currently rely on government pensions, healthcare, and support.

By 2025, 55 countries and areas had experienced a historic reversal, with more countries expected to undergo the same soon. Particularly striking are the demographics of Italy and Japan, where besides having shrinking populations, the percentage of people aged 65 and older is roughly twice as large as the percentage of those aged 17 and younger

Instead of depending on government-funded programs to take care of older adults, some government officials believe families should care for their elderly and frail relatives as has been the case throughout much of the world’s history.

For the many older adults who currently rely on government pensions and assistance, some government officials believe these individuals should be encouraged to join the workforce and achieve financial independence.

While many governments provide or regulate pensions and healthcare, the government’s role remains a subject of political and economic debate in numerous countries with the level and type of government programs varying significantly across nations.

In contrast to the debate among governments, most citizens in these countries believe that their government should continue to provide pensions, healthcare, and assistance to older adults.

A survey conducted in six European countries (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain) and the United States found that the majority of their populations recognize the future financial difficulties facing government pensions.

Most people in the surveyed countries felt that the value of the state pension is too low and opposed common reform options such as raising the retirement age or reducing funding for services for older people. Additionally, most non-retired individuals were not confident that they will live comfortably in retirement.

Ageing and shrinking populations are two significant demographic trends for the 21st century. These powerful and widespread demographics are presenting formidable challenges for many countries worldwide.

Instead of trying to revert to past demographic levels, governments should acknowledge the ageing and shrinking of their populations and act accordingly to address the many challenges that arise from these trends.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of many publications on population matters.

 

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Credit: World Economic Forum/Gabriel Lado. Source: Amnesty International

By Agnès Callamard
LONDON, Jan 16 2026 (IPS)

“The ‘spirit of dialogue’, the theme for this year’s meeting in Davos, which begins January 19, has been painfully and increasingly absent from international affairs of late. President Trump’s first year back in office has seen the United States withdraw from multilateral bodies, bully other states and relentlessly attack the principles and institutions that underpin the international justice system.

At the same time, the likes of Russia and Israel have continued to make a mockery of the Geneva and Genocide Conventions without facing meaningful accountability.

“A few powerful states are unashamedly working to demolish the rules-based order and reshape the world along self-serving lines. Unilateral interventions and corporate interests are taking precedence over long-term strategic partnerships grounded in universal values and collective solutions.

This was evident in the Trump administration’s military action in Venezuela and its stated intent to ‘run’ the country, which the president himself admitted was at least partially driven by the interests of US oil corporations. Make no mistake: the only certain consequence of vandalizing international law and multilateral institutions will be extensive suffering and destruction the world over.

“When faced with diplomatic, economic and military bullying and attacks, many states and corporations have opted for appeasement instead of taking a principled and united stand. Humanity needs world leaders, business executives and civil society to collectively resist or even disrupt these destructive trends. It requires denouncing the bullying and the attacks, and strong legal, economic, and diplomatic responses.

What should not happen is silence, complicity and inaction. It also demands engaging in a transformative quest for common solutions to the many shared and existential problems we face.

“We need UN Security Council reform to address abuse of veto powers, robust regulation to protect us against harmful new technologies; more inclusive and transparent decision-making on climate solutions; and international treaties on tax and debt to deliver a more equitable, rights-based global economy. But this will only be achievable through cooperation and steadfast will to resist those who seek to strongarm and divide us.”

-Israel’s ongoing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza

-The USA’s military action in Venezuela, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and the conflicts in Sudan, DRC and Myanmar

-The importance of revindicating and revitalizing multilateralism

-The need for global tax and debt reform and universal social protection

-The urgent need for a full, fast, fair and funded fossil fuel phase-out

-The need to massively scale up climate finance, including to address loss and damage

-Big Tech, corporate accountability and the risks of deregulation

-How to limit the harmful impact of artificial intelligence on human rights, including the right to a healthy environment

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Excerpt:

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Aung San Suu Kyi, Union Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar, attends the opening of Myanmar's first round of oral observations at the International Court of Justice in 2019. She has since been jailed by the generals she defended at the ICJ. UN Photo/ICJ-CIJ/Frank van Beek

By Guy Dinmore
YANGON, Myanmar, and CHIANGMAI, Thailand , Jan 16 2026 (IPS)

Held incommunicado in grim prison conditions for nearly five years, Aung San Suu Kyi quite possibly does not even know that this week the International Court of Justice (ICJ) opened a landmark case charging Myanmar with committing genocide against its Rohingya minority a decade ago.

If news did filter through from the world outside her cell, the Nobel Peace Prize winner and ousted leader of Myanmar’s elected government would surely be reflecting on how it was that the generals she steadfastly defended in The Hague in preliminary hearings in 2019 are now her jailers.

The case before the ICJ, brought by Gambia, levels charges of genocide against Myanmar dating to the offensive in 2016-17 by military forces and Buddhist militia against the mostly Moslem Rohingya minority. Thousands were killed, villages torched and women raped, culminating in over 700,000 refugees forced across the border into Bangladesh.

Aung San Suu Kyi’s reputation was already badly tarnished in the west even before she went to The Hague. In 2017 Oxford University’s St Hugh’s College, her alma mater, had removed her portrait from public view, and in 2018 Amnesty International joined numerous institutions and cities revoking awards they had bestowed, dismayed that she had not even used her moral authority as head of government to condemn the violence. Her 1991 Nobel prize remained intact—there were no rules to revoke it.

Separately, the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court last November requested an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing for alleged crimes against humanity committed against the Rohingya.

To add salt to those wounds, her leading of Myanmar’s legal team to the ICJ may in fact have sealed her fate with the generals rather than preserve their difficult power-sharing arrangement.

“At that point her credibility was shattered and she lost the West,” commented a veteran analyst in Yangon. “It was at that point that the military decided to move against her and started plotting their coup,” he said, explaining how Senior General Min Aung Hlaing calculated that the international community would not rally behind her.

Aung San Suu Kyi turned 80 in prison last June and this week marks a total of some 20 years she has spent behind bars or under house arrest since her return to Myanmar from Britain in 1988. She has not seen her lawyers for two years and is serving sentences amounting to 27 years following an array of charges, including corruption, that her followers dismiss as fabricated.

Largely forgotten or deemed as irrelevant outside her country, in Myanmar “Mother Suu” remains widely popular, even revered—at least among the Buddhist Bamar majority—and her fate still has a bearing on the course of the country’s future.

Although the junta’s staging of phased elections, now underway in areas it controls, is dismissed by many in Myanmar as a total sham, people dare to hope that General Min Aung Hlaing, possibly the next president, might release Aung San Suu Kyi and the deposed president Win Myint, among other political prisoners. The expectation is that the military’s proxy party might make some form of gesture after the nominally civilian government takes office in April.

Very few signs remain of Aung San Suu Kyi in junta-controlled areas. This poster hung in a Yangon cafe in 2024 but is no longer there. Credit: Guy Dinmore/IPS

But resistance fighters and members of the parallel National Unity Government (NUG) operating in areas beyond junta control remain skeptical.

“The release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi remains tightly constrained by the current balance of power. For Min Aung Hlaing, her freedom would fundamentally undermine the regime’s authority, giving him strong incentives to keep her isolated as long as the military remains ‘in control,’” David Gum Awng, NUG deputy foreign minister, told IPS outside Myanmar.

The “credible pathway forward,” he said, is to seize the capital Nay Pyi Taw, where Aung San Suu Kyi is believed to be incarcerated, and dismantle the military regime while reaching a broad political agreement or coalition among resistance forces.

“This would demand tremendous collective effort, large-scale coordination, and a much stronger political and military alliance and pact,” he added, referring to the NUG’s struggle to forge agreements among disparate ethnic armed groups that have been resisting successive military regimes and sometimes fighting between themselves for decades.

A former military captain, who defected to join civilian resistance groups outside Myanmar, told IPS that he liked “Mother Suu” and that his whole family had voted for her National League for Democracy in the 2020 elections when her government was re-elected by a landslide only for the generals to annul the results in their 2021 coup.

“But now it’s very hard for her to be a leader. We don’t see any changes happening. Ming Aung Hlaing will detain her for as long as possible. I worked with him and know his personality and based on that, he won’t release her. He is a vindictive man,” the former soldier said.

For the younger generation who paid a heavy price in mass street protests crushed by the military in early 2021 and then fled to join resistance forces springing up across the country, it seems time to move on from the era of Aung San Suu Kyi.

“It is time for a new leader. She is old. Gen Z will not listen to her,” was the comment of one hotel worker who also praised her legacy.

The NUG and the new generation are starting to acknowledge the historic abuses and wrongs committed by successive Myanmar leaders against the mostly stateless Rohingya community.

Some are following news of the ICJ hearings this week and openly say Aung San Suu Kyi’s role in 2019 in defending the military against charges of genocide was morally wrong and that she had ended up weakening her own position.

“She’s not there to defend them now,” commented one young man who was forced to flee Myanmar as the military hunted down his father, a prominent activist.

People who have known her for years seem to disagree over what really motivated Aung San Suu Kyi in taking that fateful step in The Hague.

Was it pride in defending her country as the daughter of Aung San, independence hero and founder of the modern military? Or did she wrongly calculate it was her only way forward while trying to introduce political and economic reforms that would curb the power of the generals?  Or was she simply like one of them—a Buddhist nationalist of the Bamar majority who remained skeptical about real federalism and saw the Rohingya as migrants who did not “belong” in Myanmar and were a threat to its dominant religion?

In a country where one powerful force remains committed to a past that is rejected by a large majority of its people, such questions over the shape of Myanmar’s future remain highly relevant, as does the fate of one woman.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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The International Court of Justice holds public hearings on the merits of the case concerning Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (The Gambia v. Myanmar: 11 States intervening) at the Peace Palace in The Hague. Credit: UN Web TV

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 15 2026 (IPS)

On January 12, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), opened landmark hearings in a case brought by the Republic of The Gambia, alleging that Myanmar’s military committed acts of brutal genocide against the Rohingya minority during its 2017 crackdown. Described by the United Nations (UN) as a case “years in the making,” the ICJ will spend the next three weeks reviewing evidence and testimony from both sides to determine whether the Myanmar military violated the Genocide Convention.

This case marks the first genocide case fully undertaken by the ICJ in over a decade, filed by The Gambia in 2019, two years after the Myanmar military’s 2017 crackdown —which resulted in thousands of deaths and mass displacement. UN experts note that the outcome of this case could have implications far beyond Myanmar, potentially shaping other international legal proceedings such as South Africa’s petition accusing Israel of genocide in the Gaza Strip, and helping to define standards of evidence for genocide in contexts like Darfur in Sudan and Tigray in Ethiopia.

“The case is likely to set critical precedents for how genocide is defined and how it can be proven, and how violations can be remedied,” Nicholas Koumjian, head of the UN’s Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar, told reporters.

Since 2017, Rohingya survivors have described the brutality of the Myanmar military’s attacks and their enduring impacts, recounting widespread instances of rape, arson, and mass killings. The violence displaced more than 750,000 people to neighboring Bangladesh, where resources are scarce and refugees continue to face discrimination and long-term psychological trauma.

Shortly after the 2017 crackdown, Zeid Ra’ad al-Hussein, the then UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, described the Myanmar military’s operations as a “textbook example of ethnic cleansing”. A 2018 UN fact-finding mission concluded that the military’s operations included “genocidal acts”. Myanmar authorities rejected these characterizations, claiming the crackdown was a response to Rohingya armed groups.

On January 12, The Gambia’s Justice Minister Dawda Jallow told the ICJ that after reviewing “credible reports of the most brutal and vicious violations imaginably inflicted upon a vulnerable group”, Gambia officials concluded that the Myanmar military deliberately targeted the Rohingya minority in an attempt to “destroy the community”.

“It is not about esoteric issues of international law. It is about real people, real stories, and a real group of human beings—the Rohingya of Myanmar,” Jallow told ICJ judges. He added that the Rohingya have endured decades of “appalling persecution and years of dehumanizing propaganda,” aimed at effectively erasing their existence in Myanmar.

On January 14, Myanmar’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement rejecting The Gambia’s allegations of genocide as “flawed and unfounded in fact and law,” claiming they rely on biased reports and “unreliable evidence.” The statement notably avoided the term Rohingya, referring instead to the community as “persons from Rakhine State.” It also asserted that Myanmar is cooperating with the ICJ proceedings in “good faith”, framing this as a demonstration of its respect for international law.

Lawyers for Myanmar are expected to begin presenting their arguments to the ICJ on January 16. UN officials note that after three weeks of testimony, a final ICJ ruling could take months or even years, and would be legally binding. If Myanmar were to be found guilty of genocide, such a ruling would place state responsibility on Myanmar, designating it as a “pariah state” and severely damaging its international standing.

Such a ruling could compel the UN Security Council to take more forceful peacekeeping measures and could trigger obligations under the Genocide Convention (of which Myanmar is a state party), to prevent further atrocities, punish perpetrators, and provide reparations to victims, which may include enabling conditions for a safe, dignified, and voluntary return. Even as the case proceeds, the ICJ’s existing provisional measures already require Myanmar to protect the Rohingya community and preserve evidence, though enforcement depends on Myanmar’s compliance.

“Seeing Gambia’s landmark case against Myanmar finally enter the merits phase delivers renewed hope to Rohingya that our decades-long suffering may finally end,” said Wai Wai Nu, founder and executive director of the Women’s Peace Network, a human rights group advocating for marginalized communities in Myanmar. “Amid ongoing violations against the Rohingya, the world must stand firm in the pursuit of justice and a path toward ending impunity in Myanmar and restoring our rights.”

As legal proceedings continue, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh and displaced communities in Myanmar’s Rakhine State are confronting an escalating humanitarian crisis in 2026, marked by severe shortages of essential services and heightened protection risks. According to figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over one million Rohingya refugees who fled violence in Myanmar are now living in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar settlement, one of the largest refugee camps in the world.

Recent humanitarian updates from UNHCR show that Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh continue to live in severely overcrowded shelters with limited access to food, healthcare, education, clean water, and sanitation. Livelihood opportunities remain sharply restricted, as Rohingya refugees are considered stateless. Shelter for newly arrived refugees is increasingly scarce and conditions continue to deteriorate as funding cuts hinder UNHCR’s ability to adequately support affected communities.

Meanwhile, Rohingya civilians who remain in Myanmar’s Rakhine State continue to endure entrenched discrimination, severe movement restrictions, persistent insecurity, and shrinking humanitarian access as clashes between armed groups and the military intensify. Humanitarian experts and civil society leaders underscored the significance of the ICJ case, noting that a ruling in favor of The Gambia could mark a critical step toward justice and long-term recovery for the Rohingya community.

“I hope the ICJ will bring some solace to the deep wounds we are still carrying,” said Mohammad Sayed Ullah, a member of the United Council of Rohingya (UCR), a civil society organization formed in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh, that advocates for the rights of Rohingya refugees. “The perpetrators must be held accountable and punished. The sooner and fairer the trial is, the better the outcome will be. Only then can the repatriation process truly begin.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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