European Union

For the US, Ukraine is important. For Russia, Ukraine is everything, writes Jacob L. Shapiro for Geopolitical Futures. Jacob L. Shapiro is the Director of Analysis for Geopolitical Futures, a global analysis company founded and led by George Friedman, an...

Written by Leopold Schmertzing,

© Vijayabhosale / shutterstock

The EU faces challenges from both outside and within its borders. Most of these are the symptoms of big underlying trends, and handling them requires foresight. The annual Global Trendometer aims to provide such foresight for decision-makers in the EU, by analysing the changes in these long-term trends. The publication does not offer answers or make recommendations; rather, it presents summarised information derived from a range of carefully selected sources.

This latest issue of the Global Trendometer analyses the following long-term trends:

The future of India: Aligning ambition and potential

• India possess essential demographic, political and economic ingredients for long-term success, but also has major constrains to overcome, such as regionalism, nationalism, and sorting out relations with their neighbours, Pakistan and China.

The future of the labour share of income

• Over forty years, labour compensation as part of the national income shrank, while the share of capital increased. This trend correlates with the rise in inequality. Digitalisation, globalisation and demographic change might further decline the labour share.

Democracy in the age of artificial intelligence

• Artificial intelligence can diminish or increase democratic freedoms. It can polarise or enliven the political debate. It will probably take a central place in pro- or anti-democratic beliefs. One thing is certain: AI will force democracies and authoritarian states to adapt.

The US political system after Trump: Lasting damage to the republic:

• Donald Trump has shattered political rules, reinterpreted the role of the US President like none of his predecessors, and changed relations with Congress, the judiciary and bureaucracy, but is his administration an exception, or a new standard, and is he a threat to the republic?

Remittances: a hidden contribution to development

• Remittances sent from migrants abroad are a significant and stable source of income, exceeding direct investment globally. They increasingly help women, and could be revolutionised with crypto-currencies, however nationalism and anti-terror legislation may limit remittance income.

Food (in)security in China

• With rising wealth and demand, in 2030, China might no longer be able to cater to increasing food demands. Political sensitivities and environmental issues come into play and future global land-grabbing by China might not be sufficient to meet its population’s rising demand for meat.

Long-term economic waves: Fact or fiction?

• 40 to 60-year economic cycles explain the patterns seen after the inventions of the steam engine, railroads, chemical and electro-technology, the automobile and lately information technology. The next cycle might be related to ecology, ageing and biotechnology.

Public procurement in the city of the future

• Urban public procurement is tied to trends such as a shift of power to cities, greater administrative flexibility and greater use of the private sector. Adequate monitoring of data might solve ecological issues and spread participation.

Deep fake: from fake news to fake reality?

• A ‘deep fake’ is disinformation based on digitally manipulated data, for example videos. Due to the plausibility of such forms of data, they have a great negative impact. Artificial intelligence and declining trust might make this worse. What will such practices do to journalism and privacy standards?

Climate engineering, a miracle solution to climate change?

• Technically possible, geoengineering tools involve interventions on land, in the oceans or in outer space. Although many techniques remain hypothetical, concerns are raised. What are the uncertainties? Can a climate-safe future be created?

The Global Trendometer uses a specific foresight tool – trend analysis – which asks: how will developments catch up with us in the future? It is, however, not only focusing on trends, but also on uncertainties – key questions that decide the future trajectories of trends – and on disruptions – low probability, high impact opportunities and threats. This is the third edition of the Global Trendometer, following earlier issues in 2016 and 2017. The Global Trends Unit has produced a total of 32 articles on future issues that are still relevant today. Why not read for yourself?

Read the complete study on ‘Global Trendometer – Essays on medium- and long-term global trends – July 2018‘ on the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

The European Commission opened an investigation on Tuesday on the plan by French defence company Thales to buy the Dutch firm Gemalto, a world leader in digital security products. The commission said the operation would create "by far the largest player" in the market for hardware security modules, which are used for encryption software, and "lead to higher prices or less choice in hardware security modules for customers."

The European Commission on Tuesday imposed a total of €111m fines on four consumer electronics manufacturers, for fixing online resale prices. Netherlands' Philipps, Japan's Pioneer and Denon & Marantz, and Taiwan's Asus prevented online retailers proposing to lower prices by threatening or blocking supplies, and thus influenced pricing algorithms used by the retailers, the commission said. The four companies saw their fines reduced after they cooperated with the commission.

Following a heated public debate over his controversial photograph with Turkey's President Erdoğan, footballer Mesut Özil has quit the German national team. In a statement Özil harshly criticised the German Football Association citing racism and a lack of respect. Not all commentators believe the football world champion has done the right thing.

US President Donald Trump's former chief strategist Steve Bannon plans to establish a foundation to support European right-wing populists. According to the news website The Daily Beast, Bannon's objective is to instigate a "right-wing populist revolt". How should Europe react to Bannon's "The Movement"?

After the Novaya Gazeta newspaper released a video filmed in 2017 showing an inmate in a penal colony in the city of Yaroslavl being tortured by prison employees, the investigation into the incident, which had been closed, has been reopened. But this won't make any difference to the situation in Russia's prisons, commentators from the opposition predict.

They made a name for themselves by rescuing civilians from war zones in Syria, but now they are in danger: 422 members of the Syrian aid organisation White Helmets and their families have been rescued from the combat area in the south of Syria - by the Israeli army. The press reacts positively to the spectacular rescue of the rescuers.

At least 54 people have been killed and more than 150 injured in forest fires in the Athens area. An extended period of extreme heat and drought abetted by strong winds contributed to the rapid spread of the wildfires. The authorities have declared a state of emergency and are seeking international aid. Commentators see the state as partially responsible for the tragedy.