Diplomacy & Crisis News

During a heated debate in the United Nations Security Council on Thursday, Russia again rejected allegations levelled by the United Kingdom that Moscow was behind a deadly nerve-agent attack in the English city of Salisbury on 4 March.

Expressing deep concern over the slow pace of the inter-Burundian dialogue and the lack of engagement by the Government, the United Nations Security Council called on all stakeholders, in particular the authorities to commit to the dialogue and reach an agreement ahead of the 2020 elections.

The U.S. president has strong personal reasons to remain in the Russian leader’s good graces.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres took note of the announcement by the National Electoral Commission on 4 April of the final results of the presidential run-off election in Sierra Leone, the UN Spokesman said Thursday.

Activists, ambassadors and actors gathered at the United Nations on Thursday to underline their commitment to empowering women and girls with autism, a lifelong neurological condition that begins in childhood and is characterized by some degree of impaired social behaviour, communication and language.

Ahead of the International Day of Sport, world renowned Japanese athletes are joining a United Nations-backed campaign to promote global development goals through the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games their country will host in 2020.

Turkey’s intervention in Syria is correcting for America’s flaws and laying the groundwork for a sustainable peace.

Croissance en hausse, chômage en baisse : l'industrie allemande redémarre. Mais à long terme, la mise en œuvre de ce modèle économique, qui repose sur les exportations, la stagnation des salaires et la déréglementation du travail, accentue dangereusement les déséquilibres européens. / Allemagne, (...) / Allemagne, Commerce international, Dette, Économie, Industrie, Politique, Crise économique - 2010/09

The United States can’t sit back and watch as China quietly colonizes the West.

Ainsi la crise financière aboutit-elle à la rigueur pour des populations européennes fermement « invitées » au sacrifice, pour expier des fautes qu'elles n'ont pas commises. La porte semblait pourtant étroite, cette fois, pour la mise en œuvre de l'habituelle « stratégie du choc ». / Europe, Banque, (...) / Europe, Banque, Dette, Économie, Finance, Crise financière - 2010/09

In Israel, thousands of Eritrean and Sudanese asylum-seekers are stuck in limbo. Photographer Kobi Wolf documents a national crisis.

Seize pays africains célèbrent, cette année, le cinquantième anniversaire de leur indépendance. Mais la permanence d'un certain néocolonialisme jette le doute sur la réalité de l'autonomie acquise en 1960. / Afrique, Finance, Monnaie, Politique, Crise monétaire, Indépendance - (...) / Afrique, Finance, Monnaie, Politique, Crise monétaire, Indépendance - 2010/07

On February 26, a 7.5 magnitude earthquake struck 35 kilometers underneath the Southern Highlands in Papua New Guinea, causing at least fifty deaths. An Australian Air Force plane carrying relief supplies landed five days later amid criticism that aid had been too slow to arrive.

The effectiveness of the Australian response in PNG will only become evident in time. Yet similar criticisms were also made in the response to Cyclone Pam, which hit Vanuatu three years ago. An internal report into Australia’s assistance in the recovery effort by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) found that progress was ‘less than expected’ and the program required ‘restorative action’. Australia committed $35m in long-term recovery money, but how that money was spent is unclear.

Cutting foreign aid

These events are a stark reminder that Canberra has been steadily cutting its foreign aid budget for years. The Abbot government retired AusAid and undermined the internal skills and knowledge built up over the years when the program was absorbed into DFAT. Similarly, the Turnbull government’s 2017 White Paper does not provide a clear guideline for Australian aid and only alludes to the program in the context of broader issues. Australia’s current aid program is consequently the least generous in history. The share of aid to gross national income was .22% in 2016-2017, and Australia’s aid program has dropped to 17th out of 29 in OECD rankings (which measure aid spending as a proportion of GDP).

These declines will be strongly felt in the South Pacific, the destination for most of Australia’s foreign aid. Climate change will adversely affect low-lying Pacific nations sooner, and to a greater extent, than most other places on Earth. Sea levels are expected to rise at least a meter by 2100, and tropical cyclones are expected to increase in frequency and intensity. Over the last ten years inclement weather has caused economic losses equivalent to 15-25%of GDP. The government of Kiribati is seriously considering abandoning the country altogether in the face of declining space and the contamination of freshwater supplies.

Australia remains the dominant donor to Pacific Island states, followed by the United States. Yet much of Australia’s aid program is now run by four private companies; Cardno Emerging Markets, Palladium International, Coffey International Development and ABT Associates, which have together been granted almost $4 billion since 2014 and $461.8 million in the last financial year. Paul Ronalds, chief executive of Save the Children, has said that outsourcing to private companies means ‘less contact’ with aid groups that have experience in local communities. It also reduces the visibility of the Australian government.

China’s growing influence

There is increasing concern that China will fill the gap. Beijing has been stepping up aid activity across the region in recent years. For example, it has committed a total of $632 million in grants and concessional loans to fund infrastructure in Papua New Guinea, including hospitals, universities, and government IT systems. Interestingly, these IT systems are contracted to Huawei, a Chinese company that was banned from participating in the construction of Australia’s National Broadband Network due to security concerns raised by national intelligence services (the company is accused of having opaque links to the Chinese military). Unlike Canberra, however, the government in Port Moresby is not in a political or financial position to refuse Beijing, as doing so may jeopardise other Chinese aid projects.

The second-largest regional recipient of Chinese aid is Fiji. Beijing is funding the construction of major roads, bridges, and seawalls, and donated 500 tons of essential supplies in the wake of Cyclone Winston in 2016. It has also donated computers to the Fijian military and anti-riot equipment to Fijian police forces in the lead-up to an election. China is now the largest foreign aid donor to Fiji, followed by Australia, and unlike Canberra has maintained ties with the government in Suva following the coup in 2006. Fijian Prime Minister Frank Bainarama has said that Fiji’s cooperation with China “reminds [Australia and New Zealand] that countries like Fiji have options”.

The strategic effects of Australia’s cuts to foreign aid funding are not yet clear. However, the Trump administration’s plan to cut foreign aid by a third will only increase the aid gap already opened by Canberra. It is therefore no surprise that Beijing has seen an opportunity to expand its influence. China is set to become the largest foreign aid donor to Samoa and Tonga, and will soon overtake Washington as the region’s second-largest donor. It is also increasing economic and military ties. Trade between China and Pacific island states doubled between 2014 and 2015 alone, and Beijing has signed memorandums of understanding with the Fijian military. It seems that the strategic competition between superpowers is spilling into the blue waters of the South Pacific.

 

This article was first published by Global Risk Insights, and was written by Ewen Levick.

The post Foreign aid and strategic competition in the South Pacific appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

>> Retrouvez l’article dont est extraite cette citation : « Les États au Moyen-Orient : crise et retour », écrit par Dorothée Schmid, responsable du Programme Turquie contemporaine/Moyen-Orient de l’Ifri, dans le numéro de printemps 2018 de Politique étrangère. < <

To have any chance of success, U.S. strategy toward North Korea must be guided by an accurate sense of how Kim’s regime thinks and what it knows about Washington. Failure to do so could lead the United States to stumble into the worst conflict since World War II.

France’s train conductors are icons of the country’s 20th-century history. That's exactly why the French president is targeting them.

U.S. coal exports have exploded. Can that continue?

A Paris, le linguiste et militant américain Noam Chomsky a prononcé plusieurs conférence. Les débats avec l'assistance ont donné lieu à de riches échanges sur les questions d'actualité. Extraits. / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Iran, Israël, Économie, Idées, Parti politique, Politique, Conflit (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Iran, Israël, Économie, Idées, Parti politique, Politique, Conflit israélo-palestinien - 2010/07

En avril, en France, les états généraux de la sécurité à l'école ont mis l'accent sur les portiques détecteurs d'armes et la présence policière dans les établissements. Un simple regard sur l'expérience new-yorkaise aurait pourtant douché cet enthousiasme sécuritaire. / États-Unis (affaires intérieures), (...) / États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Éducation, Sécurité, Police, Violence - 2010/06

A woman is seen near posters placed at a bus stop in support of Brazilian former President Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva, in Brasilia, Brazil, January 22, 2018. A sign reads: “Lula innocent, Lula indecent”.REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino

While difficult to measure a few months before elections are to take place, major national and regional changes are coming to the Americas, with votes likely determining the future economic and security focus of the region.

When considering NAFTA, it could be that the waves created by Trumps bargaining approach may be less of a challenge than electoral change on the US border. With Mexico having a Presidential election this year, and the next President of Mexico having one term of six years to focus on their policy file, any agreements between NAFTA partners may be re-set depending on who wins the Mexican election. It is really difficult to determine who will win in Mexico, as the current establishment party of the PRI runs a young challenger while dealing with a strong push against corruption and security in Mexico. With the PRI being seen by many as skilled practitioners of corruption historically as well as during their last mandate, the field is open for the combined PAN and PRD candidate as well as Lopez Obrador, former left leaning mayor of Mexico City. Obrador may be an interesting choice as a left leaning popular elected official to determine the future of NAFTA negotiations, but will also likely create more uncertainty where popularly elected politicians have already created mixed reactions to NAFTA talks. The PAN and PRD joint party would be an interesting outcome, as a more regional conservative party linked with a social democratic party would make for some negotiated balance in policy, perhaps acting as a bulkhead against old style PRI institutional politics as well as the election of yet another populist leader. It will be a difficult choice with no stark contenders in this year’s Mexican election.

Brazil looks to be choosing Lula in their election this year, if he does not get banned or put in jail for past accusations of corruption. With the judiciary taking to task the entire elite structure in Brazil, it seems as if everyone has been touched by corruption, and the choice between one candidate and another is like choosing between an apple with worms or an orange with mold. Openly knowing about corrupt practices of a candidate and still being elected has occurred before in the Americas, but it is not a choice a voter would like to have as it is confirming a sense of hopelessness. The law of corruption if it was to be seen as a law of physics is that once it takes hold, it is nearly impossible to remove without an excessive response. With Brazil’s judiciary going above and beyond their role as a separate branch of government, their cleaning out of their elite and institutionalized corruption has also created a political ripple effect where interested parties and have and have-nots have taken to politicize the great purge of the elite. With all of the chaos and uncertainty, it could be that the comfort and stability during Lula’s past terms in office might propel him back into office, even if he was shown to be one of the corrupt elite himself. It seems as if the law of corruption might yet again be proven.

An election in one of the largest and the most indebted region in North America, if not the world, is taking place in Canada’s own Ontario. After 15 years of the same government and massive eye watering debt and a legal sentencing coming for a former Chief of Staff coming this month, the seat of the most skilled practitioners of corruption may have a challenger. With the Premier’s approval rating narrowing towards the single digits, the Liberal Party of Ontario’s leader decided to pile on the debt by promising everything to everyone, costing inexplicable amounts more to which the Auditor General of Ontario took to challenging, along with credit rating agencies as well as citizens in Ontario from Small Business owners to Doctors to those who were recently unable to fund heating their homes a few winters ago. The effect of taking half of Canada’s economy and piling on taxes, debt and accusations against anyone who disagrees with these absurd debt laden promises will have a questionable effect on NAFTA. Raising taxes when you have record debt to preserve the political careers of a handful of failed politicians unmeasured against a US economy with low business taxes is tantamount to ignoring the laws of economic theory when you are applying the laws of corruption. With Ontario also being the economic glue that holds divisive regions together in Canada, targeting the energy industry in Alberta and asking an economically growing Quebec to pay into Ontario’s debt will create fractures in the Canadian Federation mirroring the current state of affairs in Catalonia. Accusing others of taking personal actions to cover bad decisions as well in Ottawa also will not help reduce any of these problems.

With the election of the new President in Venezuela being wholly determined by the current President of Venezuela, corruption clearly demonstrates its path to one party state rule. It is clear where corrupt practices have lead, but to move on from them may prove to be more difficult than just promising everything, looking to the past or just being a bit less corrupt than the next person running for office. As it seems, the laws of corruption tend to stand firmly in place.

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