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Summary: Russia's advanced Su-57 Felon fighter remains a rare sight on the Ukrainian battlefield. Production delays and Western sanctions cripple its ability to mass-produce the aircraft despite Moscow's urgent need. Even the use of innovative augmented reality techniques hasn't solved the issue. While touted as a stealth fighter, Western analysis remains skeptical. Its limited, cautious use in Ukraine shows its preciousness and emphasizes how production issues have left the Su-57 unable to make a significant impact on the war.

Russia's Su-57 Felon Fighter Has A Problem 

The Su-57 Felon is the most advanced fighter jet in the Russian military’s arsenal. 

Despite an urgent need caused by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the Russian Aerospace Forces can only field a handful of Su-57 fighter jets, most of which are prototypes pressed into operational service. 

Production issues coupled with Western sanctions likely prevent the Russian aerospace industry from producing additional aircraft in a manner that could make a difference in the war in Ukraine. 

Su-57 Felon Production

For years, the aircraft's production has been plagued by problems and delays. The first production Su-57 Felon aircraft crashed soon after leaving the factory in 2019. 

The Kremlin unconventionally put the first dozen prototypes into service. This rather desperate move indicates an urgency to demonstrate fifth-generation capability and join the “big boys club” alongside the United States and China. 

However, production issues and Western sanctions on military hardware and technology mean that despite innovative manufacturing processes, Russia will unlikely produce more Su-57 fighter jets soon. 

Perhaps the most impressive of these methods is augmented reality. Russian technicians have been using augmented reality to assemble the aircraft. Major parts of the aircraft carry QR codes that a technician scans and the technician then uses augmented reality to figure out where they go. Essentially, it is like the technician has IKEA assembly instructions in front of him. 

Similar technology and processes are being used in the automobile industry to facilitate the faster production of cars. 

Extreme precision in the manufacturing of aircraft like the Su-57 is essential, less its low-observable attributes, which contribute to the designation of an aircraft as stealth or not, are off. If, for example, a technician improperly installs a screw that causes the airframe to be slightly off, that could impact the fighter jet’s stealth characteristics. 

The Su-57 Felon, Explained 

The Su-57 Felon is a twin-engine, single-seat fighter jet that can perform several different mission sets. Although the Russian military claims the aircraft has stealth capabilities, Western analyses don’t necessarily corroborate that claim. 

Nevertheless, the Su-57 Felon brings essential capabilities to the Russian Aerospace Forces. In terms of weaponry, the fighter jet can carry a wide range of munitions, including R-73 heat-seeking air-to-air missiles and R-27 radar-homing air-to-air missiles, as well as cruise missiles, hypersonic munitions, glide bombs, rockets, and conventional bombs. 

The Su-57 Felon also carries a powerful 30mm Gryazev-Shipunov GSh-30-1 cannon with 150 rounds for dogfights or strafing. When not in use, the cannon's muzzle is concealed to maintain the fighter jet’s aerodynamic performance and low-observability attributes. 

According to Western intelligence services, the Russian Aerospace Forces have used their limited fleet of Su-57 Felon fighter jets in the conflict in Ukraine. However, the Kremlin has been cautious with its most advanced fighter jet, using it in limited instances and only for long-range strike missions with stand-off munitions. 

Thus far, Moscow’s technological pride has failed to meet expectations and hasn’t made any difference in the largest conflict the Russian miliary has found itself since the Great Patriotic War in World War Two. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. Email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Summary: Ukraine's strikes on Russia's costly A-50 surveillance planes are seriously impacting Moscow's intelligence capabilities. Kyiv has destroyed at least two A-50s in the air, with another damaged in Belarus. Russia, possessing only a handful of these aircraft, struggles to replace them. Ukraine's recent attack on a repair facility further hinders Russia's efforts. This leaves Moscow with potentially only six operational A-50s, restricting their ability to track Ukrainian movements and forcing them closer to the frontlines, increasing vulnerability. While Russia did destroy a US-supplied Patriot missile system, drone surveillance remains an imperfect substitute for the A-50s.

The Russian Air Force Has Problems in Ukraine 

Already this year, Ukraine's military has shot down two of Russia's A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft, worth $330 million each. A Ukrainian drone also damaged another on the ground in Belarus last year. The loss of any of the aircraft has been seen as potentially devastating for Moscow, as Russia began the war just over two years ago with only nine of the reconnaissance planes.

One of the Beriev A-50 airborne warning and control (AWACS) was downed over the Sea of Azov in mid-January, while a second was shot down over Russian territory in late February. The Kremlin has scrambled to replace the aircraft, reportedly attempting to refurbish least one A-50 from the several dozen that are no longer deemed flyable.

Ukraine responded by conducting a drone strike on the aviation facility in the city of Taganrog tasked with repairing A-50s. According to a report from Newsweek , the plant was "heavily damaged," and an A-50 aircraft close to the facility was either destroyed or sustained significant damage. It isn't clear whether that particular plane was damaged or operational.

Kyiv's claims haven't been independently verified and the Kremlin hasn't commented on the news. However, as Forbes.com reported – citing open source intelligence – as recently as February 29, an A-50 was parked outside the final-assembly shed. The aircraft wasn't visible in the post-strike imagery, and there is speculation it was inside the shed when the drone attack occurred.

Russia may now have as few as six A-50s in the sky, which could limit its ability to monitor the skies over Ukraine. That could force the remaining A-50s to operate closer to the frontlines, which would put them in the crosshairs of Kyiv's anti-aircraft launchers.

The good news for Moscow is that its forces destroyed a U.S.-made MIM-104 Patriot air defense system last week while it was being relocated to a new forward position. Both sides have thus taken a loss of equipment that can only be described as irreplaceable in the short term. Moscow has already been attempting to fill the reconnaissance gap with drones, but the stop-gap measure has reportedly been met with limited success.

A-50: Russia's AWACS

The Beriev A-50 (NATO reporting name "Mainstay") was developed by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and is based on the Ilyushin Il-76 transport. Developed to replace the Tupolev Tu-126 (NATO reporting name "Moss"), the A-50 took its maiden flight in 1978 and entered service in 1985.

As previously reported by The National Interest, the aircraft has been compared to the United States Air Force's E-3 Sentry – commonly known as the AWACS (Airborne Warning and Command System) – but with notably fewer capabilities.

The A-50 is a four-engine jet-propelled aircraft, equipped with rotating radar that scans 360 degrees, detecting radars and potential targets in the air and on land. Each aircraft has a crew of 15 personnel who are tasked with interpreting radar returns and then relaying the information to up to ten fighter aircraft for either air-to-air intercepts or air-to-surface attack missions.

The aircraft can track air targets at a distance of up to 650 km (400 miles) and ground targets at 300 km (190 miles), while it can track around 300 ground or 40 air targets simultaneously. Without external support from airborne tankers, the A-50 can stay airborne for up to four hours and has a range of 1,000 km (620 miles). The A-50M variant has been modified to allow airborne refueling by Il-78 tankers, which can extend its loiter and surveillance time.

While a total of 40 were built, just nine were reported to be in operation when Russia launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org. 

Key Point: The vulnerability of the high-value B-21 Raider, a $700 million strategic bomber crucial to U.S. national security, to various cost-effective threats is an important point lost on many national security experts.

The B-21 Raider Is No Perfect Bomber

The Ghoul is a low-cost first-person-view Russian drone used successfully in Ukraine against $10 million Abrams tanks. At $500 per drone, the cost of a Ghoul measures in at a 1:20,000 ratio to that of the tank. 

The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider will play a vital role in U.S. national security and strategic deterrence. What are some cost-effective “ghouls” that could take the glorious B-21 “angel” out of the sky? To find the answer, we start by asking what can fly faster, farther, or higher than the B-21. Other systems might not even need to match the Raider’s flight capabilities. 

The weapons in service, development, and theory that pose the most danger fall into four general categories, with some overlap: energy directed weapons (EDW), hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV), nuclear powered missiles (NPM), and orbital bombardment systems (OBS). 

(No) Need for Speed

EDWs overcome the need for greater speed or range. When fielded, energy directed weapons will offer the ability to point a laser or multiple lasers at the B-21 from satellites in space, ground-based systems, or airborne systems such as drones. This is an effective way to bring down the Raider – a $700 million aircraft – and its two pilots. 

The cost of the B-21’s arsenal also enters the equation. Equipping a B-21 Raider with a range of advanced munitions, including the modernized B61-12 nuclear bomb and precision-guided munitions like the AGM-158B JASSM-ER, JDAM kits, and AARGMs, could add at least $20 million to the Raider’s value while in flight. The inclusion of just one B61-12, after its Life Extension Program, represents a significant portion of this additional expenditure, potentially costing from $20 million to $22.5 million per unit. 

Sticking with the 1:20,000 ratio defined above, if an EDW fires and hits the Raider at a cost of $35,000 or less, that is the Raider’s ghoul. These threats are not yet fully online, but they will be. They will pose a significant threat to the B-21 when the Raider fully assumes its role as the Air Force’s workhorse bomber for the remainder of this century. 

Another cheap option is to detonate a tactical nuke in the vicinity of the Raider, which would not require a direct hit. Despite widespread aversion to using nukes, the exchange could be a bargain. 

B-21 Raider: Ghoulish Capabilities

The Raider’s baseball stats are classified, but we do know the B-21 is a strategic bomber with an emphasis on stealth. A more aerodynamic body built with materials that emphasize speed would make the bomber more easily detectable by radar. We can thus speculate that on the generous side, the B-21 has a maximum range of 6,500 miles with a top speed of no more than Mach 1, and a maximum ceiling of 55,000 feet. 

So what can fly faster, farther, or higher and threaten the flight of the B-21? 

A handful of Russian and Chinese ghouls fit the description. Three of them are hypersonic glide vehicles, including Russia’s Avangard as well as China’s DF-17 and DF-ZF. 

HGVs travel at speeds greater than Mach 5 with advanced maneuverability, making interception difficult. If deployed against a B-21, their hypersonic speeds would drastically reduce the reaction time available for the bomber to evade, or for defensive systems to intercept the missile. HGVs equipped with sophisticated targeting and guidance systems might exploit vulnerabilities in the stealth bomber’s defensive measures, especially if the HGVs are launched in a coordinated attack designed to saturate defenses.

At a reported speed of Mach 20, the Russian-made Avangard is 20 times faster than the B-21’s likely top speed. A human pilot might be able to outmaneuver the Avangard – the B-21 has longer staying power in the air compared to the Avangard and its range of about 3,700 miles. 

However, the conditions of such an encounter would not favor the Raider’s evasion. The Avangard would be launched atop an intercontinental ballistic missile, giving it a head start before it started gliding independently toward its target at hypersonic speed. Further, the B21 likely already flew at least a few thousand miles by the time it detected the Avangard, negating the advantage in range.

At a reported top speed of Mach 10 with a range of 1,200 miles, China’s DF-ZF grabs fewer headlines than the Avangard but is still a threat to the B-21. With a high speed of Mach 7 and a range of 1,400 miles, the DF-17 could threaten a B-21 as it approaches China. 

HGVs might become more lethal still as artificial intelligence is integrated into the weapons. AI might enhance the missiles’ evasion capabilities against missile defense systems, as well as improving decisionmaking and target recognition.

A Nuclear Submarine in the Sky

Russia’s SSC-X-9 Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missile is still under development, but if Moscow deploys it, the device could pose a powerful threat to aircraft like the B-21. 

The Skyfall would use a nuclear reactor to heat air for jet propulsion, giving it potentially unlimited range and a speculated speed of Mach 4-6. The Skyfall could operate at various altitudes depending on mission phase and strategic requirements. It could sustain flight at low altitudes for stealth penetration, and reach higher altitudes to prioritize speed or range.

This is not the most obvious choice of weapon to pit against a B-21, but by virtue of its speed and unlimited range, if there were other offensive systems working against and distracting the B-21, the Skyfall could deliver a hit once the Raider runs out of fuel. A more aggressive Skyfall move would be to detonate within a range that would knock out the B-21. A less aggressive, peacetime move would be to trail the B-21, challenging the Raider’s stealthiness. The Skyfall could function like a nuclear submarine in the sky. 

The Skyfall is not available yet, but given that the B-21 will be the U.S.’ strategic bomber well into the latter half of the 21st century, it is reasonable to include the Skyfall as a potential threat. However, while the NPM would surpass the B-21 in range and speed, its price tag – perhaps $200 million per unit excluding R&D – lands it well short of “ghoul” status. Still, it will be cheaper than the $700 million B-21, not to mention the aircraft’s two pilots. Nor will the Raider’s $65,000-per-hour cost of flight time apply to the more economical NPM. 

In any confrontation between the two, time would be on Skyfall’s side. It could take all the time in the world while moving at speeds greater than Mach 4, with no pilot or plane fatigue. 

The Power of MOBS

China’s F/MOBS (Fractional/ Multiple Orbital Bombardment System) also fits the bill. China has been actively pursuing an F/MOBS program, something the Soviets successfully tested as far back as 1969. 

The sheer volume and variety of threats posed by F/MOBS and HGV could challenge the defensive capabilities of even the most advanced stealth bombers like the B-21 – especially if an orbital bombardment system can effectively target airbases or known flight paths. 

Orbital or near-orbital assets can achieve extremely high velocities, significantly reducing reaction times for a lower-flying B-21, even at its likely maximum ceiling of around 55,000 feet. On this battlefield in the sky, MOBS would have the higher ground and superior numbers.

The B-21 represents an important component of the nuclear triad, but like any component, it has vulnerabilities. Defending a B-21 Raider against these threats depends on the advancement of early warning systems, electronic warfare capabilities, counter-hypersonic technologies, and propulsion of satellite-based weapons. 

For resiliency, the U.S. should counter on land with more effective and capable deterrents – for instance, it could increase the number of Sentinel ICBMs – while the Space Force should focus on the development of counterspace capabilities, and at sea, Washington should signal its support for the SLCM-N.

About the Author 

Alexis Littlefield, PhD, is Chief of Staff at the National Institute for Deterrence Studies and a Fellow of the Institute. He lived two decades in Taiwan and China.

Summary: On March 12, a Russian Su-27 fighter jet, crucial in the aerospace conflict dynamics, reportedly crashed near the Ukraine border in Valuyki, Belgorod. Circulating video footage shows smoke plumes, though details are unverified. Ukrainian figure Igor Suskho attributed the incident to the pro-Ukraine Russian Freedom Legion's activities, a claim not confirmed by Russia's Defense Ministry. The Su-27, a Soviet-era air superiority fighter designed to counter U.S. aircraft, remains integral to Russian air defense, despite controversies like China's unlicensed production. Its significance extends into the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, with the aircraft engaging on both fronts.

Russian Su-27 Fighter Jet Reportedly Downed Near Ukraine Border: Unverified Claims Surface

The Russian Aerospace Forces reportedly lost another fighter jet on March 12 as a Sukhoi Su-27 crashed near the border with Ukraine. The supersonic fighter came down near the town of Valuyki, in the Belgorod region. Video footage quickly circulated online that showed plumes of smoke rising into the sky. The details have not been independently verified.

"Russian Su-27 fighter aircraft reportedly shot down over Belgorod, on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, where the pro-Ukraine Russian Freedom Legion is currently active," wrote Ukrainian propagandist Igor Suskho on X. Suksho shared the video footage.

The Russian Ministry of Defense did not confirm the crash.

The Su-27 in the Crosshairs

The Sukhoi Su-27 (NATO reporting name Flanker) was developed in the Soviet Union in the early 1970s to be the Kremlin's answer to the F-15 Eagle and the F-14 Tomcat.

The Flanker first entered service in the mid-1980s as an air superiority fighter. Its primary role was to be a long-range interceptor against U.S. Air Force strategic bombers such as the B-1B Lancer, B-52G, and H Stratofortress, while also protecting the Soviet Union's coastlines from aircraft carriers. It was further tasked as a long-range fighter escort for Soviet heavy bombers including the Tupolev Tu-95, Tupolev Tu-22M, and Tupolev Tu-160.

After the Soviet Union dissolved, the Flanker remained the backbone of the Russian Air Force throughout the 1990s and early 2000s. Many of the aircraft underwent a mid-life upgrade and were redesignated as the Su-27SM. The fighters were equipped with new avionics, and they were complemented by a small batch of newly built aircraft that also featured improved avionics and mission equipment. Those aircraft were designated Su-27SM3.

In the 1990s, Moscow began to produce the Flanker for foreign sales. Among the export models was the baseline Su-27SK, developed for China, which also received the Su-27UBK.

After the People’s Liberation Army received around 80 of the Russian-built aircraft, Beijing began to produce a licensed version. China angered Russia when it built 95 single-seat models designated as the J-11, a reverse-engineered version of the Su-27.  

Use by Both Sides in the Russian-Ukraine War

The Su-27 has seen considerable service in the conflict in Ukraine.

In fact, the first Soviet unit to receive the Flanker was the 831st Fighter Regiment (now Brigade), which was based at Myrhorod, in the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine. The unit was considered to be among the best in the Soviet Union.

Around two dozen were still reported to be in Ukrainian service when Russia launched its unprovoked invasion in February 2022.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu 

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock. 

Summary: China is on the brink of unveiling its highly anticipated Xi'an H-20 stealth bomber, a move that could significantly shift the strategic balance in the Pacific. First announced in 2016, the H-20 has remained shrouded in mystery, with sparse details emerging through state media and promotional videos hinting at its advanced flying wing design. Deputy Commander Wang Wei of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has assured that there are no insurmountable challenges left in the bomber's development. The H-20, dubbed "Storm" by analysts, is poised to enhance China's long-range striking capabilities, potentially reaching as far as the U.S. West Coast with a payload of 45 tons. Comparisons have been drawn between the H-20 and U.S. stealth bombers like the B-2 Spirit and the forthcoming B-21 Raider. As the world awaits its official reveal, the H-20 signifies China's growing prowess in modern aerial warfare and its quest for a qualitative edge in nuclear and conventional strike capabilities.

China's H-20 Stealth Bomber: A Storm Brewing in the Pacific

The United States Air Force pulled out all stops in December 2022 when it officially unveiled the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider at an event at the aerospace firm's testing and development facility in Palmdale, California. Now it appears that Beijing may go to similar lengths when it introduces its Xi'an H-20 stealth bomber to the world.

Chinese state media outlet Global Times reported on Monday that the strategic aircraft could be unveiled to the public soon. The aircraft was first announced by the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) commander Ma Xiaotian in 2016, but since that time little official information has been released – apart from a video by the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China in 2018 and a PLAAF recruitment video in 2021.

"Both videos featured computer-generated scenes of an unknown large aircraft covered in a blanket, with the aircraft's outline suggesting it boasts a flying wing design, but with no further elaboration," the Global Times reported.

"It's coming soon, just wait!" Deputy Commander Wang Wei further told Chinese state-owned newspaper Hong Kong Commercial Daily in an interview on Monday.

Wang, who is also a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), added, "There is no bottleneck, and all problems can be solved. Our scientific researchers are progressing well, they are fully capable."

The H-20 has been described as "a new generation of new aircraft," and could greatly enhance China's aerial warfare capabilities.

"A generation of equipment brings a generation of combat effectiveness," Wang stated.

The Gathering Stealth Bomber Storm

Even as details of the H-20 have remained sparse, the bomber has earned the moniker "Storm" by analysts, who have noted that China alongside the United States is one of the few nations possessing stealth strategic bombers. The H-20's introduction could potentially alter the strategic balance between the U.S. and China, particularly in the Pacific region, Newsweek reported.

As Brent Eastwood previously wrote for The National Interest, "A heavy-payload, deep-penetration bomber would help China alter the nuclear balance with the United States. There is no current arms control agreement with the United States, and Beijing is always looking for a qualitative nuclear edge over Washington."

He added, "The Xian H-20 could also bully China’s neighbors by reaching Japan, Guam, and the Philippines, not to mention pulling a surprise attack against Taiwan. It has an enviable range of around 5,281 miles if reports are accurate, and aerial refueling could make it to Hawaii – and even the West Coast of the United States. The H-20 could also have a weapons payload of 45 tons."

The Xian's flying wing profile has earned comparisons to the U.S. Air Force's B-2 Spirit bomber, as well as the upcoming B-21 Raider. However, few other details about the H-20 have been officially disclosed or made public. Last year, photos of the aircraft were reportedly published in the latest edition of Modern Weaponry, a magazine that is run by the state defense corporation China North Industries Group (Norinco). The four computer-generated images – if they can be believed – may have highlighted some of the bomber's capabilities.

What We Know on H-20 Bomber

Based on recent reports, the Xi'an H-20 likely has an internal weapons bay, two adjustable tail wings, an airborne radar at the front of the aircraft, and two stealth air intakes on each side. In addition, the entire bomber could also be seen covered in a dark gray radar-absorbent material.

It is also believed that the H-20 could be equipped with either conventional or nuclear missiles and that it would have a maximum take-off weight of at least 200 tonnes with a payload upwards of 45 tonnes. It has been further speculated that the aircraft could fly at subsonic speeds and could also be armed with up to four hypersonic stealth cruise missiles.

To date, few photos and even fewer details have ever been disclosed publicly. Yet, it is expected that the shape and size of the aircraft are similar to that seen in a promotional video that was posted to state media in January 2021.

Titled, "Dream of Youth," the recruiting video first appeared on YouTube on January 5, 2021, and it followed a pair of recruits – played by noted Chinese actors Jackson Yee and Wu Jing – as they join the PLAAF and become pilots. It ends with an unveiling of the aircraft that they'll be flying. In the closing moments of the video, a previously unseen bomber was revealed in a type of dramatic fashion normally reserved for automotive trade shows – as a white sheet covering the aircraft was removed, revealing a flying wing design with two intakes at the back of the airframe. Seen only in a reflection of one of the pilot's helmet visors it didn't provide a detailed look at the aircraft, but across social media, it was suggested the aircraft was in fact, the H-20.

That video was produced by the state firm Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) to mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the XAC. The early 2021 video followed a similar promotional "sizzle reel" that was released in May 2018, which also included a brief glimpse of a similar-looking aircraft partially exposed from under a sheet.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: H-20 Screenshot from YouTube. 

This policy brief discusses the Global Gateway investment programme launched by the EU to foster infrastructure projects connecting Europe with other parts of the world, particularly the Southern Neighbourhood. With an initial focus on generating €300 billion for investments by 2027, the programme aims to leverage the EU’s economic size and normative attractiveness to become a global power. However, it faces a dilemma when cooperating with authoritarian regimes in the MENA region, where autocrats have tightened control despite past hopes for democratic change. Although the Global Gateway isn’t designed as a democracy promotion tool, the EU hopes its investments will indirectly promote democratic standards. Partnering with authoritarian governments nevertheless poses long-term geostrategic risks. This brief highlights the challenges of balancing investment opportunities with the EU’s democratic values, especially in regions where autocracy prevails.

This policy brief discusses the Global Gateway investment programme launched by the EU to foster infrastructure projects connecting Europe with other parts of the world, particularly the Southern Neighbourhood. With an initial focus on generating €300 billion for investments by 2027, the programme aims to leverage the EU’s economic size and normative attractiveness to become a global power. However, it faces a dilemma when cooperating with authoritarian regimes in the MENA region, where autocrats have tightened control despite past hopes for democratic change. Although the Global Gateway isn’t designed as a democracy promotion tool, the EU hopes its investments will indirectly promote democratic standards. Partnering with authoritarian governments nevertheless poses long-term geostrategic risks. This brief highlights the challenges of balancing investment opportunities with the EU’s democratic values, especially in regions where autocracy prevails.

This policy brief discusses the Global Gateway investment programme launched by the EU to foster infrastructure projects connecting Europe with other parts of the world, particularly the Southern Neighbourhood. With an initial focus on generating €300 billion for investments by 2027, the programme aims to leverage the EU’s economic size and normative attractiveness to become a global power. However, it faces a dilemma when cooperating with authoritarian regimes in the MENA region, where autocrats have tightened control despite past hopes for democratic change. Although the Global Gateway isn’t designed as a democracy promotion tool, the EU hopes its investments will indirectly promote democratic standards. Partnering with authoritarian governments nevertheless poses long-term geostrategic risks. This brief highlights the challenges of balancing investment opportunities with the EU’s democratic values, especially in regions where autocracy prevails.

Summary: Russia has claimed to have destroyed a high-value MIM-104 Patriot air-defense system in Ukraine, marking a significant loss for Kyiv's forces. This comes after the reported destruction of U.S.-supplied M1 Abrams tanks and a HIMARS launcher. The Russian Ministry of Defense alleges the hit was achieved with a hypersonic missile on a Ukrainian convoy, initially believed to be transporting an S-300 launcher but later suggested to be a German-supplied Patriot system. This incident highlights the challenges Ukraine faces in protecting its air defenses while being stretched thin across multiple fronts. The loss of the Patriot, a key asset in Ukraine's defense strategy against aerial threats, underscores the ongoing intense warfare and strategic implications for Ukrainian air defense capabilities.

Setback for Ukraine: Loss of Crucial Patriot Defense System to Russian Missile

Following the destruction of at least three U.S.-supplied M1 Abrams main battle tanks (MBT), and a HIMARS mobile launcher, it now appears that Kyiv's forces may have seen the loss of one of its high-valued MIM-104 Patriot air-defense systems.

The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video that initially claimed to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 launcher using an Iskander ballistic missile, but additional analysis has suggested that it may have been a German-supplied Patriot – one of just three full batteries operated by the Ukrainian Air Force. The Russian hypersonic surface-to-surface missile reportedly scored a direct hit on a Ukrainian convoy that was spotted by a Russian drone.

This is the first loss of a Patriot PAC-2 air-defense system – each believed to cost around $400 million – in the more than two-year-long war. The Patriot has been a crucial component of Ukraine's air defenses, believed to have been responsible for shooting dozens of Russian aircraft and possibly hundreds of drones and missiles, including the Iskander.

However, to successfully counter a missile, the air-defense system must be deployed, which wasn't the case on Saturday when was part of a convoy moving to a new location. The Ukrainian Air Forces may have stretched too thin to protect its cities, ground troops, and the convoy. As a result of the loss, it will now be even further stretched.

The MIM-104 Patriot in The Crosshairs

As noted by Army Recognition, the MIM-104 Patriot anti-aircraft defense system was developed for the United States military, It is an advanced surface-to-air missile system designed to detect, track, and intercept an enemy's aircraft, tactical ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. The Patriot can integrate high-performance radar and sophisticated computer systems for precise guidance and control, allowing for the simultaneous engagement of multiple threats.

It was one of the most sophisticated weapons that Washington provided to Kyiv last year, as it is capable of countering Russia's ballistic missiles, and unlike other air-defense systems supplied by the West, the Patriot can also strike targets at a much farther distance. U.S. officials had said it could help secure the airspace and thus protect NATO nations in Eastern Europe.

The Patriot system was developed in the 1970s to counter Soviet missiles. It uses an advanced aerial interceptor missile and high-performance radar systems. The MIM-104 gained prestige during the Persian Gulf War of 1991 with the claimed engagement of over 40 Iraqi Scud missiles. Ukraine has said that employed the Patriot system to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, including the air-launched Kinzhal.

Russia's Claims Trio Destroyed

The Kremlin further claimed to have destroyed three launchers in total.

"The Iskander tactical missile system presumably wiped out three launchers of the US-made Patriot system near Pokrovsk," a source in the Russian military told state media outlet Tass, while the report added that the same strike also "liquidated Western mercenaries" who operated the missile systems.

Moscow has alleged that NATO troops rather than Ukrainian Air Force personnel of operated the launchers.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock. 

The development and adoption of innovations are important for economic growth, enhancing well-being and for a more sustainable management of land and natural resources. Globally, improvements in agricultural development have been achieved through the adoption of innovations targeting productivity, sustainability, resilience or product quality of farmers and other food system actors such as processors and consumers. The need to drive innovations among African smallholder farmers has never been more urgent. Africa has a  rapidly growing population, insufficient food production, high rural poverty and land degradation, which is exacerbated by climate and environmental changes and extreme weather events. Fostering new farming practices and innovation adoption among female and male  smallholder farmers, including marginalised groups requires addressing the economic, environmental and socio-cultural dimensions of development and contribute to social justice and gender equity. This is not a self-evident process as some innovations have contributed to adverse environmental or social effects, resulting in low adoption rates and unsuccessful scaling of innovations.

The development and adoption of innovations are important for economic growth, enhancing well-being and for a more sustainable management of land and natural resources. Globally, improvements in agricultural development have been achieved through the adoption of innovations targeting productivity, sustainability, resilience or product quality of farmers and other food system actors such as processors and consumers. The need to drive innovations among African smallholder farmers has never been more urgent. Africa has a  rapidly growing population, insufficient food production, high rural poverty and land degradation, which is exacerbated by climate and environmental changes and extreme weather events. Fostering new farming practices and innovation adoption among female and male  smallholder farmers, including marginalised groups requires addressing the economic, environmental and socio-cultural dimensions of development and contribute to social justice and gender equity. This is not a self-evident process as some innovations have contributed to adverse environmental or social effects, resulting in low adoption rates and unsuccessful scaling of innovations.

The development and adoption of innovations are important for economic growth, enhancing well-being and for a more sustainable management of land and natural resources. Globally, improvements in agricultural development have been achieved through the adoption of innovations targeting productivity, sustainability, resilience or product quality of farmers and other food system actors such as processors and consumers. The need to drive innovations among African smallholder farmers has never been more urgent. Africa has a  rapidly growing population, insufficient food production, high rural poverty and land degradation, which is exacerbated by climate and environmental changes and extreme weather events. Fostering new farming practices and innovation adoption among female and male  smallholder farmers, including marginalised groups requires addressing the economic, environmental and socio-cultural dimensions of development and contribute to social justice and gender equity. This is not a self-evident process as some innovations have contributed to adverse environmental or social effects, resulting in low adoption rates and unsuccessful scaling of innovations.

Summary: The UK's Royal Navy faces challenges with its Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers, HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales, which have encountered a series of setbacks including mechanical failures and operational limitations. Recently, HMS Queen Elizabeth experienced a minor fire while docked in Scotland, although damage was minimal and no one was hurt. Despite their combined cost of £7 billion, questions arise regarding their defense capabilities and operational independence, as the Royal Navy struggles with logistical support and an unclear mission for these carriers. Issues with HMS Prince of Wales, such as engine room leaks and mechanical breakdowns, underscore concerns about the reliability and effectiveness of these ships amid broader concerns about the UK's military readiness.

UK's Aircraft Carrier Woes: The Troubled Journey of HMS Queen Elizabeth and Prince of Wales

Much has been written about the Russian Navy's cursed aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov – but the UK's Royal Navy's flattops are proving to be nearly as problem-plagued. The $3.7 billion flagship HMS Queen Elizabeth­, which has already been sidelined due to an issue with her starboard propeller shaft, caught fire over the weekend while docked for repairs at Glen Mallan on Loch Long in Scotland.

The damage was reported to be minimal and there were no fatalities or injuries, while no ordnance was involved in the incident.

"A minor, isolated fire on HMS Queen Elizabeth was quickly brought under control and extinguished," a Royal Navy spokesperson told the UK Defence Journal.

Expensive Aircraft Carrier Mistakes for Royal Navy?

The Royal Navy's two Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers were approved in 2007 by then-Prime Minister Gordon Brown. HMS Prince of Wales was almost canceled and scrapped even before it set sail due to concerns over funding, yet, it was determined that axing it would be more expensive than completing it.

HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Queen Elizabeth cost a combined £7 billion, but it is widely accepted the Royal Navy remains unable to adequately defend or operate them independently. The UK's senior service has just one solid stores ship, RFA Fort Victoria, to support the carriers and she is due to be retired in 2028.

As a result, the mission of the Royal Navy's carriers isn't exactly clear – a point made by Tom Sharpe of the UK's Telegraph newspaper, who offered this commentary:

"Our carriers are a great capability but even when they are fully formed, in some faraway time when we have a full complement of UK jets and other aircraft to put on them, they will never rival a US Carrier Strike Group for the breadth of capability and firepower. This doesn't mean they aren’t capable but they aren't as capable as that."

Sharpe further suggested that the Royal Navy's carriers are nowhere near being fully formed and equipped, warning there are gaping holes in the ships' airborne early warning, air-to-air refueling, and solid stores support – which includes food, jet parts, ammunition and ordnance, as well as other goods.

Problems Continue

Though the fire on HMS Queen Elizabeth was minor – and shipboard fires aren't exactly uncommon – it served as a reminder of the problems with the Royal Navy's two carriers.

HMS Prince of Wales languished in a Scottish dockyard – the same one where HMS Queen Elizabeth is headed – after it broke down off the Isle of Wight in August 2022. Since her commissioning in 2019, HMS Prince of Wales has been laid up almost as much time as she's been at sea.

The carrier's problems have been serious and ongoing, putting into question her reliability. The issues began in early 2020, when the carrier suffered a leak in the engine room, followed by the collapse of an accommodation block.

The recent sidelining of the Royal Navy's flagship also comes as UK ministers have warned that the nation isn't sufficiently prepared to fight an all-out war amid stockpile shortages and an armed forces recruitment crisis. The Royal Navy once ruled the waves, now it can barely keep its carriers operational.

Perhaps that is why some in the British government may seek to cut the losses and sell off one of the carriers. The question is who would want to actually buy one?

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock. 

Summary: The U.S. Navy's Columbia-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, set to replace the Ohio-class, face delays due to supplier issues, pushing the delivery of the lead vessel, USS District of Columbia (SSBN-826), to Fiscal Year 2028. Challenges include delays in the construction of the bow module at Huntington Ingalls Industries in Virginia and steam turbines by Northrop Grumman. The program, crucial for the U.S. strategic deterrent mission, is one of the Pentagon's most expensive, with an estimated total lifecycle cost of $347 billion. These submarines, the largest ever built by the U.S., feature advanced technology and a life-of-ship reactor.

Behind Schedule: Challenges Rock the Columbia-Class Submarine Program

The United States Navy's future Columbia-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines – which are set to replace the aging Ohio-class boats – could arrive later than expected according to reports that circulated late Monday. According to the Capitol Forum, the U.S. Navy is now forecasting at least a year-long delay to the acquisition program due to supplier problems.

USNI News further reported that the lead boat of the program is facing a delay due to supplier issues, and as a result, the future USS District of Columbia (SSBN-826) could be delivered in Fiscal year 2028 (FY28) instead of the previously planned FY27 delivery.

The largest hurdle is the lead boat's bow module, which is now under construction at Huntington Ingall Industry's Newport News Shipbuilding in Virginia and is far behind schedule. Moreover, the entire program is further facing delays from the steam turbines that Northrop Grumman is building for the U.S. Navy.

HII has been late in delivering other sections of the boat, which has delayed the timeline for the construction of SSBN-826.

"We're seeing stress across the industrial base and again I think putting this in the context of the Secretary's 45-day review will add additional depth and context to the challenges that we’re seeing across the shipbuilding portfolio and we expect to have that done fairly soon," Under Secretary Erik Raven told USNI News following the U.S. Navy's Fiscal Year 2025 budget briefing on Monday.

Replacing the Ohio-class

Originally known as the Ohio Replacement Program (ORP) or SSBN(X), until 2016, it called for replacing the Ohio-class subs with the new Columbia -class SSBNs beginning in the early 2030s.

The program's goal is to build a dozen of the new nuclear-powered submarines, and those boats will continue to support the U.S. strategic deterrent mission.

However, the program now appears to be running behind schedule, and the U.S. Navy may be forced to keep the Ohio-class subs in service longer than expected. The original plan called for the first of the SSBNs to be retired beginning in 2027, with an additional boat leaving the service every year until 2040. The Navy has already determined it would be possible to extend the service life of at least five of its Ohio-class subs by two to three years each so that the force would remain at 12 vessels or more for all but three years between 2024 and 2053.

Expensive Program

Even before the delays were announced – which could raise the price tag – the Columbia -class SSBNs were on track to be one of the most expensive Pentagon programs. It was previously reported that the U.S. Navy would spend around $132 billion for the procurement of the dozen submarines, while the total lifecycle cost for the entire class is estimated at $347 billion.

That figure includes all projected costs to develop, buy, and operate the 12 submarines through 2042.

In its Fiscal Year 2019 (FY19) request, Navy officials asked for $3.7 billion for the Columbia-class program – a 97% increase over 2018, making it the second-most expensive program in the 2019 Pentagon budget request, next to the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which is operated by the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps.

Last October, a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that the program risks running at least 20% over, or about $20 billion, due to potential delays.

Large and In Charge

The new SSBNs will be the largest submarines ever built by the United States. Each of the planned dozen boats will be 560 feet in length and have a beam of 43 feet.

The Columbia-class will be equipped with sixteen SLBM tubes, as opposed to twenty-four SLBM tubes on Ohio-class SSBNs. That will also reduce construction, operations, and maintenance costs. In addition, the new boats will utilize the joint American-British developed Common Missile Compartment (CMC), which will also be installed on the Royal Navy's new Dreadnought-class submarines. It was designed to launch the Trident II D5 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The joint effort has been reported to save each nation hundreds of millions of dollars.

The new submarines will be longer, heavier, and feature a complex electric drive propulsion system and associated technology.

Unlike the preceding Ohio-class, the new ballistic missile submarines are being constructed with a life-of-ship reactor, which will result in a shorter mid-life maintenance period, and each was designed to serve a 42-year service life.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Summary: The Montana-class battleships, planned but never built, represent a bygone era of naval power. With their formidable armament and heavy armor, some suggest bringing them back or such an idea for such a warship amidst concerns over anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) threats posed by nations like China. However, the efficacy of such behemoths in modern warfare is questioned. A2/AD capabilities, exemplified by China, pose significant risks to surface warships, rendering even the mighty battleships vulnerable. The escalating use of drones in conflicts like the Ukraine War further underscores the challenges faced by large surface vessels. Despite their historical allure, the Montana-class battleships may remain impractical in today's contested maritime domains.

Montana-class Battleships: Reviving an Old Concept in Modern Warfare

During the Second World War, the United States Navy possessed a fleet which had some of the world’s most powerful and most sophisticated (for their time) battleships in the world. These were known as the Iowa-class battleship—and they served the United States on-and-off from the 1940s until 1992, when the last battleship was decommissioned. Today, there are still calls to bring these warships, which are currently museums, back into service. But the US Navy was designing an even larger, more powerful, and sophisticated battleship to succeed the Iowa-class. 

That was the Montana-class battleship. 

While these glorious battlewagons were never built due to the fact that by 1943, it was obvious to most naval planners that the aircraft carrier had displaced the battleship as the Navy’s premier weapon in its arsenal of power projection. 

The Montana-class was Almost Built

For almost 80 years, the carrier has ruled the high seas as the US Navy’s primary capital ship. Yet, America’s enemies have not sad idly by, watching the Americans sail the seven seas aboard their floating airbases. American rivals have judiciously devised strategies for negating the potency of America’s aircraft carrier fleet. This has become known as “anti-access/area-denial” (A2/AD). 

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea are all in possession of advanced A2/AD capabilities (notably China). These systems threaten the very existence of any US surface warship—especially America’s massive and expensive aircraft carriers—that gets within range of these weapons. 

The Navy knows that its warships are vulnerable. 

Chinese A2/AD Threatens Safety of US Navy Warships

No matter how great the ship’s onboard defensive systems are, China’s A2/AD swarms are designed to overwhelm those defenses. They don’t need to sink the US warships. They just need to disable them to such a point that they become wasting assets in a fight. 

Some analysts are looking for ways to retain power projection in a contested, A2/AD environment. This brings us back to those calling for the recommissioning of the four remaining Iowa-class battleships. But what if the US Navy looked to building (and updating) its old design concepts for the Montana-class battleship? 

After all, the Montana-class was originally designed to have 12, powerful 16-inch guns and even heavier armor than what the Iowa-class battleships had. The Navy had more plans to add truly potent 18-inch guns that could fire shells weighing over 2,000 pounds at enemy targets. Coming in at 64,000 tons, the Montana-class battleships would have been the biggest battleships in the US fleet if they’d been commissioned.

Eighteen-inch armor and massive guns sounds pretty good in the age of A2/AD defenses. The Montana-class battleships could take—and dish out—a serious pounding. The only problem is that, even if they were upgraded with modern weapons and equipment, the Montana-class battleship would be out of its proper time. 

Contested Domains Today

Because the problem facing surface warships today is not that some are more capable of fighting—and surviving—in the contested battlespaces of A2/AD-wielding powers than others. The real issue is that the swarming capabilities of A2/AD means that no surface warship can really survive a protracted engagement with these systems.

Modern warfare among near-peer rivals is going to be fought increasingly at greater distances from previous wars. That’s not to say the surface ships are obsolete. But until the A2/AD threats to them are neutralized, they are wasting assets, whether it be America’s current fleet of expensive and large aircraft carriers or the possibly resurrected Montana-class battleship. 

Further, another reason opted to not follow through on its plans to build these battleships was because of the cost involved in maintaining them. They were fuel guzzlers and required much maintenance. 

These systems, therefore, would not be helpful today.

Beyond that, large surface warships are already being shown to be increasingly ineffective. The Ukraine War, which has entered its second grueling year, has demonstrated how surface warships are poorly defended from sophisticated drone attacks. The Russian Black Sea flagship, the Slava-class battlecruiser, the Moskva, was sent to the bottom of the Black Sea by the Ukrainian drones. Similar attacks have been conducted against other Russian surface ships in the Black Sea. 

Learning from the Russian Example

The point is that the mighty Russian battlecruisers cannot hold up against the kinds of systems being referred to in this piece. While American warships are more advanced and their crews better trained than the Russians, it does not negate the fact that US warships operating within an A2/AD “bubble” will likely suffer a similar fate as did the Moskva. 

Sure, a modern variant of the proposed Montana-class battleship might be able to operate in a contested environment—and even open it up—because of its added armor and larger weapons platform. Ultimately, however, the law of numbers will sink those warships as readily as US aircraft carriers will likely be damaged or destroyed by Chinese A2/AD systems.

The Montana-class should stay on the drawing board. 

About the Author 

Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

The present collection of short papers is an experimental, explorative and introspective German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) project on international and transnational cooperation for development and sustainability. It is the product of internal brainstorming discussions at IDOS in mid-2022 that aspired to conduct a preliminary, exemplary mapping of the use of “transnational lenses” and their understandings across various work strands at the institute. This might lead to new questions in our work, or it might simply be an attempt to look at our topics of interest with a different perspective. 

The present collection of short papers is an experimental, explorative and introspective German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) project on international and transnational cooperation for development and sustainability. It is the product of internal brainstorming discussions at IDOS in mid-2022 that aspired to conduct a preliminary, exemplary mapping of the use of “transnational lenses” and their understandings across various work strands at the institute. This might lead to new questions in our work, or it might simply be an attempt to look at our topics of interest with a different perspective. 

The present collection of short papers is an experimental, explorative and introspective German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) project on international and transnational cooperation for development and sustainability. It is the product of internal brainstorming discussions at IDOS in mid-2022 that aspired to conduct a preliminary, exemplary mapping of the use of “transnational lenses” and their understandings across various work strands at the institute. This might lead to new questions in our work, or it might simply be an attempt to look at our topics of interest with a different perspective. 

Bundeswirtschaftsminister Robert Habeck hat heute das europaweit erste Gebotsverfahren für sogenannte Klimaschutzverträge eröffnet. Die Verträge sollen Anreize setzen, in klimafreundliche Industrien zu investieren. Dazu eine Stellungnahme von Karsten Neuhoff, Leiter der Abteilung Klimapolitik im Deutschen Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin):

Der Start der Klimaschutzverträge war längst überfällig. Energieintensive Unternehmen in der Stahl-, Zement-, Papier- oder Glasherstellung können den Umstieg auf klimaneutrale Produktionsprozesse nicht aus der Portokasse bezahlen. Ihre Margen sind gering und Unsicherheiten mit Blick auf CO2-neutrale Technologien groß. Die Schwerindustrie steht am Scheideweg: Klimaneutrale Optionen sind noch riskant, aber Investitionen in fossile Technologien auch nicht mehr wirtschaftlich. Klimaschutzverträge sichern jetzt CO2- und Energiepreisrisiken ab und ermöglichen so Investitionen in die grüne Transformation. Sie sind ein modernes Regulierungsinstrument auf dem Weg zur CO2-Neutralität – basierend auf langjähriger Forschung und umgesetzt vom Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz im intensiven Austausch mit Industrie und europäischen Partner*innen. Damit stellen Klimaschutzverträge einen fairen Deal zwischen Staat und Industrie und damit auch für die Gesellschaft dar.

(B2) C'est une véritable attaque en règle à laquelle ont du faire face samedi (9 mars) les navires des deux coalitions, américaine et européenne, présents en mer Rouge et Golfe d'Aden

En l'espace de quelques heures, entre 4h et 8h30 (local), les navires de guerre et des avions américains et britanniques ont intercepté et abattu 28 drones kamikazes lancés depuis les zones contrôlées par les Houthis du Yémen vers la mer Rouge et le golfe d'Aden, selon une source militaire. Le navire britannique HMS Richmond a ainsi abattu deux drones à l'aide de missiles Sea Ceptor. « La première fois que ce type d'armes est utilisé par un navire britannique au combat » signale le ministère britannique de la Défense.

Quatre drones abattus par une frégate française

Action identique de la frégate française FS Alsace, qui participe à l'opération européenne ASPIDES qui a abattu dans le même temps quatre drones kamikazes. La frégate « qui patrouillait dans le golfe d’Aden a détecté quatre drones de combat progressant vers elle en vol tactique » indique un communiqué du ministère français des Armées. « Ces drones ont été détruits en légitime défense par la frégate et des chasseurs français. » Jeudi (7 mars), déjà un destroyer américain avait abattu trois drones dans le Golfe d'Aden.

Deux autres attaques échouent

Les navires marchands continuent d'être visés. Deux missiles anti-navire ont visé vendredi (8 mars), en milieu d'après-midi (16h14 locales) un navire marchand alors qu'il se trouvait à 50 nautiques au sud-sud-est d'Aden (12°04 Nord et 045°23 Est). Le navire a signalé deux explosions à 200 mètres du tribord du navire. Sans faire de dégâts apparemment. L'équipage est sain et sauf.

Lundi (11 mars), entre 8h50 et 12h50, c'est un navire marchand singapourien, le MV Pinocchio, battant pavillon libérien, qui a été visé. Toujours avec la même technique. Les deux missiles balistiques antinavires tirés par les Houthis « n’ont pas touché le navire et aucun blessé ni dommage n’a été signalé » indique le commandement US CentCom.

Commentaire : des Houthis toujours déterminés et menaçants

La présence militaire comme les frappes menées essentiellement par les Américains sur le sol du Yémen ne semblent en rien avoir ralenti le rythme d'action des rebelles yéménites. Sans doute réapprovisionnés en missiles anti-navires, les attaques des Houthis ne cessent guère. Ce malgré la présence des navires de guerre, des coalitions américano-britannique et européenne. Au contraire. On pourrait même dire qu'un palier, dans l'escalade a été franchi, avec les premiers morts faits parmi un équipage de la marine marchande, la semaine dernière. Lire : [Actualité] Premier tir mortel des Houthis dans le golfe d'Aden. Un navire gravement atteint (v2). Il va sans doute falloir changer de tactique, au moins au plan politique, et négocier...

(Nicolas Gros-Verheyde)