European Union

In his address to MEPs, Colombian President Iván Duque welcomed EU support for the country’s peace process and for hosting displaced Venezuelans.

Source : © European Union, 2022 - EP

Throughout 2021, the European Defence Agency (EDA) held a Technology Foresight Exercise the results of which will help identify and define the main challenges Europe’s armed forces will most probably have to face in the next 20 years and beyond, as well as the defence toolbox needed to tackle them. 

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This article was first published in EDA’s latest European Defence Matters magazine N°22

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In the short term, the exercise outcome will feed into the upcoming revision of the EU’s Capability Development Plan (CDP) to be steered by EDA. It will also serve for future updates of EDA’s Overarching Strategic Research Agenda (OSRA) and the Key Strategic Activities (KSA).

The methodology applied and the activities developed were designed to support the central objective of the foresight exercise: the identification of new technologies, weak signals and innovative trends to support the R&T and capability planning processes and inform future defence policies and programmes of the EU and its Member States. To achieve that, the exercise looked up to 20 years into the future, to provide a strategic vision of the possible impact those new technologies will have on defence in 2040 and beyond. The exercise was based on a methodology which combines different existing methods and processes along with best practices and lessons learned from the wider EDA community of foresight practitioners. 

10 future scenarios identified

The exercise stretched over 2021 with successive activities and meetings that brought together representatives from different international organisations, Ministries of Defence, non-governmental bodies, academia, industry and civil society. With the help a multidisciplinary group of foresight experts, so-called Futures Tellers, multiple possible futures were described in the Futures Narratives meant to widen people’s vision and imagination and to encourage them to think outside the box about what could be possible towards 2040+, and what kind of challenges this would entail. Based on these narratives, the experts then entered a complex thinking and discussion process (Divergent Thinking, Convergent Thinking) from which, at the end, emerged 10 future scenarios, i.e. developments which, according to the experts, are very likely to materialise over the next 20 years in Europe – all of them somehow relevant for defence:

• Software-based battlefields: a scenario where software and algorithms will determine military missions’ success more than platforms, as the result of disruptive developments and the introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI), faster communication networks and system-of-systems defence solutions
• Space as an operational military domain: by 2040, all global powers will have a fully established space force resulting in opportunities but also in threats and challenges. This scenario will call for the establishment of new concept of operations, regulatory frameworks and international agreements
• Extended and augmented reality everywhere, also in defence: the merger of brain-computer interfaces and augmented/virtual reality in the battlefield will lead to a pervasive robotisation of the battlefield and the rise of (mis-)information-driven capabilities
• Dominance of unmanned and autonomous platforms on the battlefield: in 2040, the extensive integration of unmanned platforms in the military domain will trigger major changes to the structure and organisation of Defence Ministries, particularly as regards military operational doctrine, equipment, acquisition policy and logistics implications
• Hybrid human-machine teaming, also in the military: by 2040, there will be a seamless integration and cooperation between humans and machines. This scenario deals with the consequences this development will have on technology, as well as ethical and regulatory frameworks
• Proliferation of more and more sophisticated biological weapons: by 2040, climate change, global migration and the rise of megacities will result in new diseases, natural catastrophes and new resistant microbes created by the widespread misuse of antibiotics and other drugs. New biohazard stemming from the use of synthetic biology and gene edition technologies will emerge, which may be used as a bioweapon or biothreat
• Enhanced cognitive abilities of soldiers (human enhancement): this scenario outlines the key impact advances in biotechnology, synthetic biology, gene edition technology and brain-computer interfaces will have on soldiers as those technologies can be used to enhance human being’s cognitive and physical capabilities
• Real time mapping of dynamic environments: by 2040, quantum sensing and quantum navigation will have made leaps ahead in the development resulting in real-time mapping capabilities of every changing environments. The consequence on the military capabilities are addressed in this scenario
• Use of misinformation: by 2040, the misuse of information will become a weapon targeting all information systems and enabling a scale of influencing operations challenging the capability of nation-states to counter or control. The boundaries between military and civilian domains will continue to blur
• Environmental problems, energy supply, climate change: by 2040, climate aspects and biodiversity will become geo-strategic drivers and subjects of conflicts and confrontations. Energy supply, too, will remain a major factor of strategic dominance. From a defence point of view, and despite the huge investments made in new energy generation and storage systems, energy will remain a critical challenge for most defence systems and operations.

The impact those 10 scenarios will likely have in the defence domain, and the types of adaptations they will require, were then analysed from different time perspectives, i.e. very short term (2024), medium term (2030) and long term (2040).

Final conclusions 

A final report with the exercise conclusions should be available by the end of March on the exercise website.

 

The DiscoverEU youth travel programme will be expanded this year, with 10,000 additional rail tickets available to young people from an expanded set of countries.

Anti-LGBTI rhetoric is on the rise across Europe, according to a report published on Tuesday (15 February) by ILGA-Europe, an advocacy group. At the same time, numbers show public opinion has also shifted positively towards the community, most notably in Hungary.

Written by Marcin Grajewski.

Russia continues to strengthen its military presence around the Ukrainian border, despite intensive diplomatic activity to ward off a feared armed conflict between the countries. Russia has amassed more than 100 000 troops, as well as ships, aircraft, rocket launchers and other heavy weaponry near Ukraine, prompting some politicians and analysts to say that war may be imminent. Others believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is still playing a diplomatic game, aimed, among other goals, at bringing Ukraine into Russia’s sphere of influence. The United States, the European Union and other countries have threatened severe sanctions against Russia should it start new hostilities, following its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the destabilisation of some eastern Ukrainian provinces.

This note gathers links to recent publications and commentaries from many international think tanks on the crisis and its implications for neighbouring countries, the European Union and global geopolitics. More reports on the issue can be found in a previous item from the ‘What think tanks are thinking’ series.

The crisis of European security: What Europeans think about the war in Ukraine
European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

Friendly arguments: Biden’s and Zelensky’s disagreement on the threat from Russia
European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

Why the war in Ukraine could reshape the European nuclear order
European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

How the Russia-Ukraine crisis could change Sweden’s security policy
European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

Putin knows exactly what he wants in eastern Europe, unlike the West
European Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

Russia’s choices and the prospect of war in Ukraine
International Institute for Strategic Studies, February 2022

Russia’s ‘military-technical solution’ for Ukraine
International Institute for Strategic Studies, February 2022

Belarus seeks to amend its constitution to host Russian nuclear weapons
International Institute for Strategic Studies, February 2022

Russia’s assault on Ukraine and the international order: Assessing and bolstering the Western response
Brookings Institution, February 2022

How the demise of an arms control treaty foreshadowed Russia’s aggression against Ukraine
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 2022

For Biden, wreaking havoc on Russia’s economy is the least bad option
Atlantic Council, February 2022

Russia crisis military assessment: What would a ground offensive against Ukraine look like?
Atlantic Council, February 2022

With Putin poised to invade, Zelensky must prioritize Ukrainian unity
Atlantic Council, February 2022

How the Ukraine crisis could become a disaster for Russia
Heritage Foundation, February 2022

The return of US leadership in Europe: Biden and the Russia crisis
Istituto Affari Internazionali, February 2022

Is Putin winning, or is he trying not to lose?
Egmont, February 2020

What Ukraine reveals about NATO and the EU
Carnegie Europe, February 2022

Rewinding the clock? US-Russia relations in the Biden era
Institut français des relations internationales, February 2022

Will tough US sanctions deter Russian aggression in Ukraine?
Peterson Institute for International Economics, February 2022

Russia’s shifting foreign and security policy in Northern Europe: The new geopolitical meaning of ‘good neighbourliness’
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, February 2022

Kontraproduktive Drohpolitik: Russland drängt Finnland und Schweden näher an die Nato
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, February 2022

Die Ukraine unter Präsident Selenskyj: Entwicklung hin zum ‚populistischen Autoritarismus‘?
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, February 2022

Ukraine conflict: An escalation within limits
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, January 2022

How do the militaries of Russia and Ukraine stack up?
Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

The Russia-Ukraine crisis could determine the future of sovereignty
Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

Putin’s Ukraine quagmire
Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

Russia and the West: A new Cold War?
Council on Foreign Relations, February 2022

Russia-Ukraine: Diplomacy is the best hope for heading off a deeper crisis
International Crisis Group, February 2022

The Ukraine crisis: There is still room for diplomacy
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy, February 2022

Ukraine: Germany is not to be relied upon?
Heinrich Böll Stiftung, February 2022

Murky waters: The Black Sea region and European security
Friends of Europe, January 2022

Western diplomacy on Russia must serve deterrence
International Institute for Strategic Studies, January 2022

What does Putin want with Ukraine and how does he plan to get it?
German Marshall Fund, January 2022

What it’s like in Ukraine as the Russia crisis unfolds
German Marshall Fund, January 2022

What next for diplomacy between the West and Russia?
German Marshall Fund, January 2022

Russia’s energy role in Europe: What’s at stake with the Ukraine crisis
Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

Why NATO has become a flash point with Russia in Ukraine
Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

Guide to the chess game at the United Nations on Ukraine crisis
International Crisis Group, January 2022

In the shadow of war: Ukraine and the limits of a ‘geopolitical’ EU
Centre for European Policy Studies, January 2022

Is Germany damaging Europe’s position on Ukraine?
Carnegie Europe, January 2022

The Russia-NATO crisis tests Turkey’s balancing policy
Carnegie Europe, January 2022

Europe faces tough choices on Nord Stream 2 if Russia invades Ukraine
Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2022

Ukraine: The price of stability
Egmont, January 2022

A proposal for a new Western policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Re-position to de-escalate
Finnish Institute of International Affairs, January 2022

Is a Russia-Ukraine war imminent?
Chatham House, January 2022

Why Putin’s gamble does not have to be lose-lose
Chatham House, January 2022

The future of European security: What does Russia want?
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik, January 2022

Can Europe survive painlessly without Russian gas?
Bruegel, January 2022

Once in a hole, stop digging: Russia, Ukraine, the West and the imperative of diplomacy
Clingendael, January 2022

The power of keeping calm: Ukraine in the face of Russia’s potential aggression
Centre for Eastern Studies, January 2022

Russia demonstrates its power in Belarus and on the oceans worldwide
Centre for Eastern Studies, January 2022

NATO member states on arms deliveries to Ukraine
Centre for Eastern Studies, January 2022

Does Russia want a new Berlin Wall?
Foreign Policy Centre, January 2022

Why do we think we can read Putin’s mind on Ukraine?
The Hill, January 2022

If Russia invades, sanction its oil and gas
Brookings Institution, January 2022

Why Europe has no say in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

Bonfire of sovereignty: Russian tanks in Belarus
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

Moldovan lessons for the Ukraine conflict
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

Kazakh lessons for authoritarian leaders: How Putin and Lukashenka could fail the test
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

The EU’s unforgivable failure
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

War in Ukraine: Erdogan’s greatest challenge yet
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

Free-rider on the storm: How Russia makes use of crises in its regional environment
European Council on Foreign Relations, January 2022

Russia’s threat to invade Ukraine and Europe’s soft power
Centre for European Policy Studies, December 2022

How serious is Europe’s natural gas storage shortfall?
Bruegel, December 2021

A winter of Russian discontent?
Clingendael, December 2021

Read this briefing on ‘The Ukrainian crisis: Military threats and diplomacy‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

The draft legislative initiative report sets out an array of measures to address problems linked to ‘citizenship and residence by investment schemes’.
Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2022 - EP

The draft legislative initiative report sets out an array of measures to address problems linked to ‘citizenship and residence by investment schemes’.
Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs

Source : © European Union, 2022 - EP

Some troops in Russia's military districts adjacent to Ukraine are returning to their bases after completing drills, Russia's defence ministry said on Tuesday (15 February), a move that could de-escalate frictions between Moscow and the West.

Food producers have joined the choir of those against moving the bulk of EU competencies on geographical indications (GIs) from the European Commission to the EU's intellectual property office (EUIPO).

Caution on nuclear power, ambiguous renewable energy ambitions, ideas for consultations: as the countdown to France's presidential elections continues, Paris Mayor and presidential candidate Anne Hidalgo's climate program still seems rather vague.

Europe wants to get out of fossil fuels and build a hydrogen economy. Without enough internal supplies, it is looking to import large quantities of hydrogen from countries in the Global South. EURACTIV Germany reports.

The US and Ukraine reportedly believe a Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video: "We are told that February 16 will be the day of the attack." The US has moved its embassy from Kyiv to Lviv as a precaution. Commentators discuss how much of this talk of an invasion is strategy and how effective it can be.

Despite testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug, the International Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) ruled on Monday that Russian figure skating star Kamila Valieva will be allowed to compete for another Olympic gold in Beijing. However, even if she wins there will be no ceremony for the 15-year-old. Commentators point to fundamental problems with the way minors are treated in competitive sport.