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South African DJ Black Coffee injured during flight to Argentina

BBC Africa - Thu, 01/11/2024 - 13:10
The 47-year-old artist is recovering well after suffering severe blows reportedly during turbulence.
Categories: Africa

How South Africa's Abel Selaocoe includes throat singing while playing the cello

BBC Africa - Thu, 01/11/2024 - 12:37
Listen to the cellist who blends the deep throat singing of the Xhosa people with playing the instrument.
Categories: Africa

Zambia cholera: President Hakainde Hichilema urges people to move to villages

BBC Africa - Thu, 01/11/2024 - 10:59
President Hakainde Hichilema says some slums in urban areas are a breeding ground for the disease.
Categories: Africa

Nigerian army arrests soldiers after viral torture video

BBC Africa - Thu, 01/11/2024 - 09:17
The two soldiers were filmed repeatedly whipping and kicking a civilian as he pleaded for mercy.
Categories: Africa

Where Does the International Criminal Court Stand on Charges of Mass Killings in Gaza?

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Thu, 01/11/2024 - 08:14

The headquarters of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands. Credit: Adam Mørk

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Jan 11 2024 (IPS)

The continued devastation of Gaza by Israel has triggered widespread charges of war crimes, genocide, forced displacement, ethnic cleansing, starvation as a weapon of war and mass killings of civilians – over 22,000 at last count—compared to 1,200 killings by Hamas.

These accusations have prompted growing demands for intervention by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, which has remained silent while its Prosecutor Karim Khan is accused of double standards and playing politics.

The New York-based Foreign Press Association (FPA), which was scheduled to host a zoom discussion later this week, said “with more than 20,000 Palestinians dead, areas of Gaza turned to rubble, ICC prosecutor Karim Khan has yet to investigate either Israel or Hamas for the deaths, on and after 7 October– despite his exemplary hair-trigger speed against (Russian President) Vladimir Putin fo war crimes committed in Ukraine”.

With South Africa’s referral of Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for genocide, and the U.S.’s continued strong support for the Netanyahu government’s military response as geopolitical context, many are looking for the International Criminal Court to take action — if only as a warning to the parties, but so far Karim Khan, the British barrister serving as ICC prosecutor, shows no sign of action, reinforcing allegations of “rich country justice,” said FPA.

Ian G Williams, author, writer, broadcaster and FPA president, told IPS Khan is approaching the prosecution with all the caution of a Sheriff in Old Alabama prosecuting a KKK lynch mob.

“With his accomplices in Washington, he has done more to substantiate the global South’s suspicions of the bias of UN justice than anyone would have dreamt,” declared Williams, a former President of the UN Correspondents Association (UNCA).

Karim Khan

Mouin Rabbani, Co-Editor, Jadaliyya, an independent ezine produced by the Arab Studies Institute, told IPS Karim has consistently demonstrated that he is unfit for the position of ICC Prosecutor.

“At a time when he should be working overtime to address the ICC’s legitimacy deficit, he has politicised the position well beyond what its credibility can bear”

Shortly after assuming his post, he reassured the Security Council he would only prioritise cases that were referred to his office by the Council, and effectively ignore others — most prominently Palestine and Afghanistan, he pointed out.

“When Russia invaded Ukraine several months later, this modus operandi went out the window and within a year he indicted the head of state of a permanent member of the Council”, Rabbani said.

“Meanwhile he treated the much older investigation into Palestine as if it did not exist.
Khan, in other words, has consistently demonstrated an addiction to pandering to the priorities of Western power”.

Since 7 October, Rabbani argued, his double standards are once again on visible display: he has repeatedly and explicitly denounced Palestinian organisations in the strongest possible terms, suggesting he has already reached conclusions about their conduct, while refusing to consider similar statement with respect to Israel and its conduct.

“Rather, he has suggested that the Israeli judiciary rather than the ICC is the appropriate venue to hold Israeli war criminals accountable — despite numerous human rights organisations and independent investigations having denounced this system as a sham. It is entirely possible that Khan will indict only Palestinians and leave Israeli suspects to be declared innocent by Israeli courts”.

His refusal to investigate “the Situation in Palestine” beyond claiming an investigation exists without offering any evidence it is actively being pursued, was in fact cited by South Africa in its ICJ submission regarding Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Tellingly, Khan has been entirely mum on this case, and indeed on other Israeli crimes, Rabbani said.

“Khan has become a central enabler of Israeli impunity. Western leaders in fact routinely demur when challenged on Israeli war crimes, claiming these are within the purview of Khan while knowing full well Khan considers them within the purview of the recess of his filing cabinet”.

The ICC will remain incapable of pursuing Israeli crimes until Khan is replaced by a prosecutor committed to conducting the job in accordance with its mandate and terms of reference, declared Rabbani.

Addressing the 193-member UN General Assembly on January 9, Riyad Mansour, Permanent Observer of the State of Palestine to the UN, said: “I stand here representing a people being slaughtered, with families killed in their entirety, men and women shot in the streets, thousands abducted, tortured and humiliated, children killed, amputated, orphaned, scarred for life. No people should endure this. This must stop. “

The whole world, he pointed out, is calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, 153 states across the globe have voted for a ceasefire, the moral voices of our time have pleaded for a ceasefire, the Secretary General and the United Nations have called for a ceasefire, the humanitarian organizations have urged a ceasefire. They all know the horrors need to end and the only way to end them is a ceasefire.

“This assault is without precedent in modern history in the scale and pace of killing of children, of UN personnel, of medical and rescue teams, of journalists. This is a war of atrocities. How can you reconcile opposing these atrocities and vetoing a call to end the war that is leading to their commission?” asked Mansour.

A roundtable of experts convened by Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN) has concluded that the assault on Gaza by Israel, including mass killing of at least 22,000 civilians, the forced displacement of nearly 1.9 million Palestinians, deprivation of essentials like water and electricity, and denial of humanitarian access, coupled with explicit declarations of intent by Israeli officials to destroy the population of Gaza, likely amounts to genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

“Expert analysis of Israeli government statements revealing their intent to destroy Palestinians in Gaza, combined with military actions on the ground, including mass killings, forced displacement, and the deprivation of items essential to life in Gaza, suggest that the crime of genocide is being committed against the Palestinian population,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, Executive Director of DAWN.

Meanwhile, the ICC says it investigates and, where warranted, tries individuals charged with the gravest crimes of concern to the international community: genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and the crime of aggression. As a court of last resort, it seeks to complement, not replace, national Courts, and is governed by an international treaty called the Rome Statute.

There are 123 member countries, but dozens of governments are not ICC parties, including China, India, Russia, and the United States.

The ICC has over 900 staff members from approximately 100 States with 6 official languages: English, French, Arabic, Chinese, Russian and Spanish. But the two working languages are English and French.

According to ICC, so far, there have been 31 cases before the Court, with some cases having more than one suspect. ICC judges have issued 40 arrest warrants: 21 people have been detained in the ICC detention centre and have appeared before the Court. 15 people remain at large. Charges have been dropped against 7 people due to their deaths.

ICC judges have also issued 9 summonses to appear. The judges have issued 10 convictions and 4 acquittals.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 


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Categories: Africa

Mozambique storms: How to cyclone-proof your life

BBC Africa - Thu, 01/11/2024 - 01:04
Mozambicans learn to build stronger houses as climate change brings bigger and deadlier storms.
Categories: Africa

Chef Failatu Abdul-Razak breaks cooking record in Ghana cook-a-thon

BBC Africa - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 17:51
Politicians and celebrities have backed Chef Failatu Abdul-Razak's attempt to break the world record.
Categories: Africa

Somalia conflict: UN helicopter and passengers seized by al-Shabab

BBC Africa - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 17:50
Eight passengers and its crew are being held in territory controlled by al-Shabab, local sources say.
Categories: Africa

Tiwa Savage files police complaint with Nigerian police against Davido

BBC Africa - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 15:26
The Nigerian star alleges the Grammy nominee artist has threatened her - he has not yet responded.
Categories: Africa

How Afghan Women Connect and Learn in the Face of Taliban Restrictions

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 15:23

Social media has become a lifeline for many women and girls in Afghanistan but not all can afford it. Credit: Learning Together

By External Source
Jan 10 2024 (IPS)

The prevalence of social media usage among Afghan women and girls has surged since the Taliban assumed control of the country in August 2021. Faced with restrictions confining them to their homes, many women find solace in the messaging app WhatsApp.

The Taliban’s prohibitions on women attending school, university, and work have spurred an increased reliance on WhatsApp for maintaining connections with friends, sharing thoughts and information, engaging in discussions, and even participating in foreign language online classes and accessing online libraries.

Farhat Obeidi, 23, lives with his parents and two brothers in Kabul. She was a fourth-year psychology student at Kabul University when she was banned from attending university by the Taliban.

“After we were banned from university, I couldn’t meet my friends anymore. I kept in touch with my friends through WhatsApp. We created groups, and our professors shared all the course materials with us through these groups. Even our friends who could not afford to have smartphones were in contact with us using the cell phones of their families, and they were able to take part in our online study groups”, Farhat says.

Farhat says that the use of social media has helped in reducing the pressures and psychological problems caused by the unemployment of women and girls. Since the apps have no time and place restrictions, the women can stay connected also with friends and relatives who have immigrated. Using the app is safe and messaging is possible even when the internet connection is poor.

Nilab Noori, a resident of Kabul, says that the easiest way to be in touch with a large number of friends and colleagues at the same time is to create groups on messaging app.

“Although virtual communication can never be as effective as being present in the community, school and university, this method has helped women and girls to communicate with each other.”

Power outages in Afghanistan prevent young people who study online from continuing their education. Another obstacle is the high price of the internet connection or its poor quality.

“Since the majority of women have lost their jobs and income, and most Afghan families live below the poverty line, women can hardly afford the internet access”, Nilab says.

Tamna Alkozi had to quit her online studies, because she could not afford the fast internet connection. She used to study at Coventry University of England online via Zoom. 

At the same time, Tamna was working as a volunteer in one of the non-governmental organizations. Her task was to run online educational programs related to the mental health of adolescents and young people. The organization paid for her internet usage.

“After finishing my work, I couldn’t continue my studies because the Zoom program requires a fast internet connection which I couldn’t afford”, Tamna says.

Sara (pseudonym) was a first-year student of a fine arts faculty who was banned from going to university.

“Our professors left Afghanistan after the political changes and opened an online class for us from abroad. I had one online class a week, but I could not participate because I did not have internet access”, Sara says.

The lack of security in cyberspace causes concern among women, especially activists. Those who live inside Afghanistan cannot express their opposition to the Taliban group even through social media because it will cause their account to be shut down and even get them arrested.

Marina (pseudonym) is a journalist who works online under a pseudonym. “I used to share my reports with the media through WhatsApp, but my number was blocked and my account was deleted”, Marina says.

When she asked the telecommunications company why her number was blocked, they told her that they had received an order from the Taliban, and they could not activate the number again. 

Marina says that several women’s rights activists who are imprisoned by the Taliban have been traced and arrested through social media. She says the Taliban is violating people’s privacy by checking people’s personal mobile phones and WhatsApp messages at checkpoints.

 

Internet connections are in high demand in Afghanistan, but the content remains tightly controlled under the influence of the Taliban. Credit: Learning Together

 

Sexualized online abuse and hate speech targeting women in Afghanistan has significantly increased. Afghan Witness, an open-source project run by the non-profit Center for Information Resilience, collected and analyzed over 78,000 posts written in Dari and Pashto — two local Afghan languages — directed at almost 100 accounts of politically active Afghan women between June-December 2021 and the same period of 2022.

The number of abusive posts tripled during that time. Afghan Witness said it found the online abuse was “overwhelmingly sexualized,” with over 60% of the posts in 2022 containing terms such as “whore” or “prostitute.”

Some politically active women have decided to deactivate their social media accounts.

Despite these challenges, the use of social media has seen significant growth in Afghanistan. A recent survey indicates that over nine million of the 40 million Afghan population use the internet and engage with at least one social media platform. The majority of young Afghans prefer Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, and TikTok.

Excerpt:

The author is an Afghanistan-based female journalist, trained with Finnish support before the Taliban take-over. Her identity is withheld for security reasons
Categories: Africa

Gloria Maya Musu-Scott: Liberia's ex-chief justice sentenced to life for murder

BBC Africa - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 14:43
She was convicted, along with three other women, of stabbing to death her niece at her home.
Categories: Africa

What is South Africa's genocide case against Israel?

BBC Africa - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 14:12
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) will consider whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.
Categories: Africa

Assessing Public Debt Sustainability with a Long-Term View

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 10:06

An office worker is conducting a financial review on a whiteboard. Credit: Pexels / Karolina Grabowska. Source: https://www.pexels.com/photo/report-paper-on-a-white-board-7876383/

By Vatcharin Sirimaneetham
BANGKOK, Thailand, Jan 10 2024 (IPS)

When students from poor families in developing countries are offered places at prestigious universities, they are often faced with a tough choice. One option is to accept the offer and create more debt, likely through borrowing from a loan shark, to pay for tuition fees. Another option is to forgo this opportunity, which could be the first in family generations, and start working as low-wage workers.

Which option is better?

If what matters is the ability to repay debt in coming months, then entering the labour market not only avoids creating new debt but also generates income. Yet, if one adopts a longer-term view and considers that tertiary education could offer higher earnings, and thus ability to pay off debt, and savings in the long run, then going to a university seems more viable.

While governments are different from individuals in many ways, this is also the nature of choices that policymakers in developing countries face. They embark on ambitious development pathways, such as providing universal healthcare services and boosting renewable energy production, which are good for people and the environment in the future, but they often mean additional sovereign borrowing and debt today.

Should governments borrow more to invest in development, or should they give up these investments to attain ‘sustainable’ public debt level, as perceived by creditors and financial markets?

Arguably, investments to foster equitable and green development do not bode well with the current approaches on public debt sustainability analysis adopted by international financial institutions and credit rating agencies.

This is because returns to investment in development only become clearly visible in the long run, but the current approaches prioritize a country’s ability to meet debt obligations in the near term. There is a risk that too much emphasis is being put on reducing short-term debt distress risk at the cost of social and environmental welling.

Given the lack of a long-term, development-aligned approach to assess public debt sustainability, ESCAP in its Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2023 proposes a new, ‘augmented’ approach to supplement the existing approaches.

This augmented approach duly considers the scale of a country’s investment needs to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and how such investment can reduce, rather than increase, the government debt-to-GDP ratio in the future. For example, investing in the SDGs would raise the potential GDP level amid a more educated and healthier workforce, technological innovation, and climate-resilient economies.

The augmented approach also considers the sovereign debt implications of pursuing national SDG financing strategies and structural development policies. In the same way that many students seek financial grants and part-time jobs to make their university education a reality, governments also actively explore domestic and international financing options to fund their development ambitions. This financing aspect should form a critical part of any debt sustainability analysis.

Unlike traditional approaches, the augmented approach does not categorize debtor countries into a low or high risk of public debt distress based on some common thresholds. This is because ‘sustainable’ debt level should be country specific, depending on the gap between development progress and goals, among others.

Instead, based on the ESCAP Macroeconomic Model, this new approach illustrates different trajectories of government debt levels under different policy scenarios and adverse shocks. This helps policymakers make informed choices on how to strike a balance between achieving the SDGs and maintaining public debt sustainability in the long run.

The analysis on Mongolia as a pilot country in the Survey 2023 shows that investing in the SDGs would, as expected, result in a surging government debt level initially due to large spending needs. Yet, after considering the sizeable socioeconomic and environmental benefits of investing in the SDGs as well as a package of policies aimed at promoting a green and diversified economy, mobilizing fiscal resources and attracting private finance for development, government indebtedness is expected to fall notably in the long run.

Going beyond policy research, the augmented public debt sustainability analysis was discussed at the fourth session of the Committee on Macroeconomic Policy, Poverty Reduction and Financing for Development in early November 2023. During a dedicated session, high-level government officials also highlighted policy actions that Mongolia, Pakistan and Viet Nam have undertaken to balance the SDG attainment with long-term public debt sustainability.

The augmented approach is also implemented as part of ESCAP’s technical assistance for its member States. For example, ESCAP is working with the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) of Viet Nam to study the fiscal, socioeconomic and environmental implications of policies on carbon pricing, poverty reduction, and investments in information and communications technology. A national workshop was organized in mid-December 2023.

Vatcharin Sirimaneetham is an Economic Affairs Officer at ESCAP.

IPS UN Bureau

 


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Categories: Africa

Afcon 2023: Opta predict who will win tournament in Ivory Coast

BBC Africa - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 09:58
The 2023 Africa Cup of Nations begins on Saturday and BBC Sport have worked with Opta to look at who might be crowned champions.
Categories: Africa

Cooperative Farming Makes Bangladesh’s Coastal Women Farmers Climate-Resilient

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 09:26

Bangladeshi women cooperative farmers underwent training and support on climate-tolerant agricultural practices, which helped them cope with the adverse consequences of extreme weather events in the coastal regions. Credit: Rafiqul Islam/IPS

By Rafiqul Islam
PATUAKHALI, BANGLADESH , Jan 10 2024 (IPS)

In the past, Salma Begum, 40, lost her crops every year due to natural disasters. She lives with her five-member family in Ashabaria village under Rangabali upazila, a remote coastal island in Patuakhali district.

“We did not have enough livelihood options in the coastal area where we live. Cyclones, coastal floods, and tidal surges have been having adverse impacts on agriculture, making it difficult for my wage-laborer husband to find work regularly,” she said.

“We have no arable land either,” said Salma, a mother of three.

Now, the Local Government Initiative on Climate Change (LoGIC) project, jointly implemented by the Bangladesh government and UNDP for delivering adaptation benefits to vulnerable coastal people, has ushered in a ray of hope for Salma and many others since they got training on climate-tolerant livelihood practices.

After the training, eight women of Ashabaria village, including Salma, formed a group, and each member of the group received Taka 30,000 (USD 273) from the project’s Climate Resilient Fund (CRF) through their bank accounts. Later, they deposited the money in a group bank account.

“With the money we received from the CRF, we first leased arable land from a local landlord at Taka, which cost us one lakh (USD 910), and we started climate-resilient agriculture under cooperatives last year,” said Salma, who is also the group leader.

She said they sowed mug dal, also known as mung bean, and paddy on the agricultural land.

“Because torrential rain damaged our paddy field just before harvesting the food grain, we were unable to make a profit from cultivating that paddy last year. But this year we earned a profit of Taka 20,000 (US$ 180) by sowing mug dal. We got Taka 2,500 each from the profit.”

Shahnaj Akter, another member, said that before starting a new venture, they sit together and take any decisions in consultation with each other.

“We work together on the crop field too. During the mug dal cultivation, we ourselves sowed and harvested the cash crop. And even we ourselves processed mug dal before selling it,” she said.

Shahnaj said they also received training on sheep and duck farming and vegetable cultivation. Now she spends several hours a day at her homestead, where she has built a duck farm and is cultivating vegetables.

“Now I have 20 ducks at my farm. I get eggs every day and sell them. I get meat too from my duck farm. So, I am now supporting my family financially by selling vegetables and eggs,” she said.

“In the past, we led a miserable life as we did not have enough income. Now, after starting agriculture under cooperatives, we are now able to support my family,” said Rabeya Begum, a mother of five.

Building Climate Resilience

Led by the Local Government Division of the Ministry of Local Government Rural Development and Cooperatives, the LoGIC project is providing the Community Resilience Fund (CRF), aiming to help the most climate-vulnerable women build resilience to climate change by enabling them to take climate-adaptive livelihoods.

Through this CRF support, the women apply community-based approaches to invest in climate-adaptive livelihoods like sunflower production, climate-tolerant rice, dal and watermelon cultivation, and more.

Maksudur Rahman, the project’s community mobilization facilitator, said the climate-vulnerable coastal women developed business plans together and accordingly leased arable lands from landowners within their surrounding neighborhood. Later, they prepared the land for cultivating climate-tolerant crop varieties.

“We provide technical support for them. The LoGIC project also facilitates market linkages and networking support for women farmers so that they can sell their agricultural products,” he said.

Project coordinator AKM Azad Rahman said about 2,013 groups of women farmers have so far been formed under the project in the climate-vulnerable regions of Bangladesh, supporting around 35,000 women through the CRF scheme.

Extreme Weather Hits Coastal Agriculture Hard

Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, while cyclonic storms, flooding, and storm surges severely affect agriculture in the country’s coastal area every year. Once a natural disaster hits the coastal region of Bangladesh, it damages a huge area of crop fields, putting local farmers in peril.

According to an estimate from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), Bangladesh incurred crop loss worth Taka two billion due to the recent cyclone Midhili that lashed the country’s coast.

The cyclone damaged 432.6 hectares of Aman paddy, and pea, mustard, Boro paddy seed beds, betel, and lentils were affected too.

Mahmud Hasan, chairman of Maudubi Union Parishad at Rangabali, said climate change is severely affecting agriculture in the country’s coastal area.

He said there is plenty of rainwater during the monsoon but a scarcity of water during the dry season.

“Pulse and watermelon cultivation faces setbacks during the dry season for lack of freshwater as the groundwater level drops drastically at that time,” he said.

Farmer Saifuddin Mito said they had to sow Aman paddy twice this year as their paddy seedbeds were damaged earlier due to excessive rainfall, resulting in an increase in the cost of crop production.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 


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Categories: Africa

TB Joshua’s daughter: Tortured after standing up to ‘Daddy’

BBC Africa - Wed, 01/10/2024 - 01:00
The first person to blow the whistle on the abuse at the megapastor's church was his young daughter.
Categories: Africa

Nigeria ivory: Elephant tusks worth $11m destroyed

BBC Africa - Tue, 01/09/2024 - 20:12
Nigeria has become a hub for illegal ivory sales, with tusks smuggled in from all over the continent.
Categories: Africa

Ethiopia-Somaliland army chiefs meet amid regional tensions

BBC Africa - Tue, 01/09/2024 - 13:49
The two discuss military co-operation as concerns rise over a deal about sea access for Ethiopia.
Categories: Africa

Niger deposed President Mohamed Bazoum's son freed by coup leaders

BBC Africa - Tue, 01/09/2024 - 13:26
Salem Bazoum was detained with his parents since the presidential guard staged a coup last year.
Categories: Africa

Ready or Not, America, Your Population Is Also Aging

Africa - INTER PRESS SERVICE - Tue, 01/09/2024 - 12:53

The aging of America’s population is expected to have mounting effects on government programs, businesses, healthcare institutions, communities, families and individuals. Credit: Maricel Sequeira/IPS

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Jan 9 2024 (IPS)

As the signs of population aging are crystal clear and widely available, many countries are taking steps to address the far-reaching effects of that momentous demographic trend. A notable exception is the United States, a country that seems neither ready nor willing to deal with the aging of its population.

America’s government and its citizens appear ill-prepared to address the daunting consequences of population aging for the country’s economy, workforce and entitlement programs. Among those challenging consequences are the rising costs of programs for the elderly, the need for financial aid and long-term care for many older people and the dwindling financial resources of elderly households.

Many countries, including the United States, are well along in the demographic aging of their populations. While some countries, such as France, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea, have median ages above 40 years, other countries, including China, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, have median ages of nearly 40 years (Figure 1).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

America’s elected officials tend to avoid addressing population aging. It seems that by ignoring or paying little attention to population aging, its many weighty consequences will diminish or simply go away.

The consequences of population aging for America’s federal budget, its economy, workforce and the overall well-being of its citizens are not imaginary and will not go away by simply ignoring them. On the contrary, the aging of America’s population is expected to have mounting effects on government programs, businesses, healthcare institutions, communities, families and individuals

However, the consequences of population aging for America’s federal budget, its economy, workforce and the overall well-being of its citizens are not imaginary and will not go away by simply ignoring them. On the contrary, the aging of America’s population is expected to have mounting effects on government programs, businesses, healthcare institutions, communities, families and individuals.

In ten years, for example, the U.S. federal government is expected to be spending half its budget on those aged 65 years or older. That spending will be used to support elderly Americans largely for health care and retirement benefits. Without sufficient government assistance, many elderly Americans will have to forgo needed care or rely on the uncertain assistance and care from family and friends.

While a secure retirement is a widespread desire across America, the financial resources of most Americans are not sufficient to cover their retirement expenses. Among households headed by someone 55 years and older, nearly half of them lack some form of retirement savings. Also, close to 30 percent of those who are retired or nearing retirement do not have retirement savings or a defined benefit plan.

In addition, the health conditions of America’s elderly are both worrisome and costly. About 80 percent of Americans 65 or older have at least one chronic condition, with about 68 percent having two or more.

It is estimated that nearly a half of elderly Americans are affected by arthritis, a quarter have some type of cancer and a fifth have diabetes. A third of the elderly have cognitive issues with approximately half of them having dementia.

Millions of older Americans are struggling with health challenges and increasing numbers are in need of caregiving services. Many elderly Americans also find it challenging to obtain or pay for the additional services they need as they age.

It is estimated that approximately 70 percent of U.S. adults aged 65 years and older will require long-care at some point, with the average length of stay in long-term care about three years. In 2021, the average annual costs of long-term care in America ranged between $35,000 and $108,000.

The median age of the U.S. population, which was about 27 years in 1965, has reached a record high of nearly 40 years. The median age of America’s population is continuing to rise and is projected to be 43 years by mid-century.

In addition, the proportion of America’s population age 65 years or older is also expected to continue rising. Whereas approximately 9 percent of the U.S. population was 65 years or older in 1965 when the Medicare program was established, by 2022 the proportion had almost doubled to 17 percent. That proportion is expected to nearly double again by the century’s close when approximately one in three Americans will be 65 years or older (Figure 2).

 

Source: United Nations.

 

Furthermore, the U.S. will face noteworthy demographic aging turning points in the near future. Beginning in 2030, for example, all of America’s baby boomers will be older than 65 years. Also, in 2034 the share of America’s population age 65 years or older is expected to surpass that of children under age 18 year for the first time in the country’s history.

A major demographic force behind the aging of populations is low fertility. Whereas America’s fertility rate was nearly three births per woman in 1965, today it has declined to nearly a half child below the replacement level at 1.7 births per woman. Moreover, the country’s fertility levels are expected to remain well below the replacement level throughout the remainder of the century.

Increasing longevity among the elderly is also contributing to the aging of America’s population. U.S. life expectancies for males and females at age 65 years have risen markedly over the past sixty years. From 13 and 16 years for males and females in 1965, life expectancies at age 65 rose to 16 and 19 years by 2000 and further increased by 2022 to approximately 18 and 21 years, respectively. By mid-century, U.S. life expectancies at age 65 for males and females are expected to reach 20 and 22 years, respectively (Figure 3).

 

Source: U.S. Social Security Administration.

 

America’s major government programs for the elderly are being seriously affected by population aging. As a result of the increase in both the absolute and relative numbers of the elderly, the two largest programs, Medicare and Social Security, are rapidly approaching insolvency, which is expected in 6 and 13 years, respectively.

The U.S. Congress needs to act responsibly to address the expected funding imbalances and the insolvencies in those two programs. Not doing so would lead to across-the-board benefit cuts or abrupt changes to benefits or tax levels.

Democrats are by and large committed to maintaining funding for Social Security and Medicare, programs that were established by the democratic administrations of President Franklin Roosevelt and President Lyndon Johnson, respectively. The Democrats believe that all Americans have the right to a secure and healthy retirement and are committed to preserving Social Security and Medicare for future generations.

Over the years, public opinion polls have repeatedly demonstrated overwhelming support for those two programs. For example, approximately 80 percent of Americans support Social Security and oppose reducing benefits, and 70 percent are against increasing premiums for people enrolled in Medicare.

Republicans, in contrast, are reluctant to raise taxes and have resisted increasing funding for the government’s major entitlement programs. They claim that with Social Security and Medicare facing insolvency if cuts to benefits and costs are not made, those two programs will not be available for future generations. Republicans in general prefer the private sector, freedom of choice and individual responsibility, such as private retirement investment accounts and a voucher system for private health insurance.

Besides congressional actions, educational and community programs are needed to encourage responsible behaviors among Americans in preparing for and during old age. Men and women need to adopt behavior, take action and develop habits early on in their lives that promote their economic security, personal health and overall well-being in their retirement years.

In sum, the United States seems neither ready nor willing to deal with the aging of its population. But demography doesn’t care. As the U.S. population continues to become older over the coming years, America’s elected officials, the private sector, social institutions, communities, families and individuals will be obliged to cope with the inevitable, momentous and far-reaching consequences of population aging.

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division. He is the author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

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