Foreign Policy Blogs

It was recently reported that Yadigar Shukarov, Boyshan Alizade and Gylman Huseynov were injured by anti-personnel mines while carrying out demining work in Garakhanbeyli village in Azerbaijan.   This came after Azerbaijani serviceman Vugar Isbandiyarov was injured in a landmine blast in the Kalbajar district.   This comes around the same period of time that 204 anti-personnel mines, 32 anti-tank mines, and 29 UXOs were discovered in Tartar, Aghdam, Khojavandi, Fuzuli, Shusha, Gubadli, Jabravil and Zangilan during a six day period in the beginning of August, the Azerbaijani media reported. 

Following these developments, the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy issued the following statement after the conclusion of a round table discussion at the Begin Center titled ‘Landmines in the Liberated Territories of Azerbaijan: the biggest obstacle to obtaining peace in the South Caucuses” and reads: “More than 220 Azerbaijanis have been killed or maimed by landmines since the Second Karabakh War ended.  To date, Armenia refuses to hand over all the landmine maps and out of the ones they did hand over, only 25% are usable.”

The statement continued: “The failure of the international community to take action on this issue is killing people and is a major impediment to world peace.  For this reason, the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy calls upon the international community to take action to remove all landmines worldwide.” 

As many people here might know, about one year ago, I went to the war-torn Karabakh region for the first time, where I was able to witness firsthand the destructive impact that landmines had on the Karabakh region. Back then, we traveled mile after mile on broken dirt roads surrounded by landmines, which prevented us from swaying to the right and to the left.  In fact, due to the terrible road conditions at that time, our bus broke down in a landmine infested area and we had to wait about a half of day to get rescued by the Azerbaijani government.   During that trip, we saw uprooted trees, polluted rivers, burnt agricultural fields, of which some of them were still burning when we were there and also the ruins of Fizouly, Shusha, Sultanya and numerous other Azerbaijani cities and towns, which were also surrounded by landmines that inhibited reconstruction.   This transformed what was known as the Black Garden into a barren wasteland.    

After that trip, I interviewed Kara and he proclaimed: “Karabakh reminds me of the Lebanon War of 1982 when I was an officer fighting against the terrorists in Lebanon.  The terrorists destroyed Lebanon and here in Karabakh, I saw that everything was also destroyed.  I felt very sad.  It is a very bad situation.”  Kara noted that both Karabakh and Lebanon have the potential to be beautiful places, yet in both instances, terrorists destroyed everything.    In fact, Kara declared that the destruction he witnessed in Karabakh was even worse than Lebanon, as the terrorists in Lebanon did not kill off all of the nature there like the Armenians did to the nature in Karabakh, ensuring that even the fish in the river and the cows in the field could not survive.   

Last May, I returned to Karabakh to cover the Shusha Food Festival together with a delegation of Israeli bloggers and journalists.  On that trip, I was pleased to see that Fizouly is on the map again and even has an airport.  I was happy that a lot of the greenery has returned to the region and there are now proper roads in Karabakh.     I was also delighted that instead of having to eat lunch on an Azerbaijani military base, I was able to dine in a nice Azerbaijani tea house, which did not exist about one year ago.    Additionally, I was impressed by the progress I saw in the restoration of Shusha, which has now built a five-star Karabakh Hotel and restored many nice historical sites in the area.    Although much of the region still has too many landmines and a lot of rebuilding is still required, I saw how hard the Azerbaijanis are working to make Karabakh great again.        

Last month, I had the privilege of once again traveling to Karabakh together with a couple of dozen other foreign experts from around the world, who spoke on a panel at the prestigious Ada University in Azerbaijan.   This time, we went to Aghdam, Karabakh’s ghost city which is otherwise known as the Hiroshima of the Caucuses.  Unfortunately, the progress is rebuilding Aghdam is much slower than it was in Shusha, largely because of the landmine issue.   There were more landmines in Aghdam to remove than there were in Shusha, which has slowed things down significantly.  This is because Armenians actually lived in Shusha, while Aghdam was a booby-trapped ghost town.  

In Aghdam, I witnessed first-hand how a city of 100,000 people, which included theaters, cafes, restaurants, vibrant Azerbaijani tea houses, homes, places of worship and even museums and historic monuments, were reduced to being nothing but rubble. I went to the Ivarant Cemetery, which contained the graves of prominent members of the Karabakh Khanate, dating back to the 18th and 19th centuries.   The graves were gone and the beautiful Turkic architecture of the royal tombs lay in ruins, completely run down from the Armenians utilizing these historic tombs as pig pens.  They treated this site like this even though it was labeled as a world heritage site.  According to a local guide, “The Armenians were taking stuff away from here and selling them to the Iranians.”

In fact, for two hundred dollars, everything inside the homes of Agdam, whether refrigerators, washing machines, family heirlooms or raw construction materials torn from the homes were sold to the Iranians, who were able to profit from the destruction of an entire city and the ethnic cleansing of the Karabakh region in the 1990’s.  After they took everything, they burnt everything down, thus leaving many of the homes without roofs, as the roofs were made of wood.  

The Imarat Cemetery was not the only historic place that they desecrated.  In Agdam, the Armenians used a historic mosque dating from 1860 as a watch tower and pig pen.  According to our local guide, “That was the only reason why this mosque was not completely desecrated.   More than 60 mosques were completely ruined in the region.”  For me, this had an uncanny resemblance to my graduate school trip to Spain, where I witnessed how the Spanish Inquisition transformed historic synagogues into pig pens and stables.  I could not help but ask myself, am I living in the twenty-first century?  How is it possible in our era to witness Christians desecrate holy places in such a manner, to conduct itself as if the Spanish Inquisition was still ongoing and never left us?

After that, I went to a local cemetery in Agdam, where I witnessed how all of the tombstones and gold teeth in the graves were gathered together and sold to the Iranians for profit, while the bones of the people who were buried there were thrown away in the trash.  Since Azerbaijan reclaimed Agdam, relatives of these unfortunate souls have tried to rebuild the destroyed memorials to their loved ones by putting up fresh plaques with pictures, but the bones are gone.  They are no longer proper graves.   What I saw there reminded me of what the Jordanians did to the Mount of Olives following the division of Jerusalem, after Israel’s War of Independence.  In that case, beautiful historic tombstones from the Mount of Olives were used by the Jordanians as construction material to build latrines and other unsavory things.   

Then, we went to the historic Bread Museum.   It used to house bread from the Second World War, an historic item documenting life during the Second World War in the Soviet Union.  However, that historic piece of bread was destroyed alongside all of the other exhibitions.  The roof was also gone and the beautiful artistic mural was heavily desecrated.  I could not ponder but ask, where was the international community when all of this happened?  Why was UNESCO silent?  What ever happened to the phrase NEVER AGAIN? 

I never stop writing and never stop speaking out for the justice of the Azerbaijani people, as Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. said, “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”    For this reason, my organization is taking a strong stance against landmines.   Fuad Muradov, the Chairman of the State Committee on the Work with the Diaspora, noted: “Our main goal is to build peace in the region.  However, for that to happen, all landmines must be removed and removing them is an uphill struggle when the maps you have are not reliable.”

To date, Armenia has refused to hand over all of the landmine maps and this blocks peacebuilding.  And of the landmine maps that they turned over, only 25% are usable.   This means that Aghdam largely remains how it was 30 years ago, even though I did see construction trucks working there.  This is a true travesty.  The time has come for this grave trauma to end.  The time has come to remove all the landmines and to make Karabakh great again.  While I am grateful to Israel, Turkey, France and other countries who are trying to help make Azerbaijan landmine free, the international community still has much more work to do to see the black garden turn into a green colorful paradise once again.  

Al-Shabab’s Enigmatic Invasion of Ethiopia

In countries such as the U.S., there is an unwritten theory in police investigation that assumes whenever a neighborhood robbery occurs it was done by someone who not only had the motive to commit that crime, but the basic intelligence to help time it well and to get away with it. In other words it was committed by someone who lives or operates within 5-miles radius around the crime scene. If your gut feeling is ‘such mentality, regardless of how logical it may sound, will keep the law-enforcement stereotypically myopic and perpetually racist’ you are not alone. But that is a topic for another day.

Meanwhile, an elaborately sophisticated attack carried out by more than 500 al-Shabab and dozens of technical- armed trucks- against Ethiopia left many casualties and many unanswered questions.  Granted this was not a robbery.

According to the VOA’s Investigative Dossier “Officials from both sides of the (Somalia, Ethiopia) border confirmed that the attacks preoccupied Liyu police forces and distracted them as other heavily armed al-Shabab units crossed the border unopposed.” Moreover, the same program quotes an anonymous former al-Shabab militant who said the group was determined to erect its flag inside Ethiopia and then officially declare that “jihad spread to a new front.”

The offensive, according to Matt Bryden of the controversial Sahan research group “appears to be the start of a major, strategic initiative to establish an active combatant presence in Ethiopia, probably in the southeastern Bale Mountains.” How about that for a narrative express?

Surely with the failure of the Somali Federal Government’s military and intelligence campaign as well as the America’s deadly drone doctrine to decapitate and defeat al-Shabab, the terrorist group remains more dangerous than ever. That danger is made worse when governments sometimes engage in their own concocted threats to pave the way for one manipulative objective or another.

Here are some possible scenarios driving al-Shabaab’s incursion into the Somali region of Ethiopia:

Scenario One:

It is the first step of a foreign-driven plan to spook China out of Ethiopia’s oil and gas rich region. A few years ago the Ethiopian government signed a multi-billion dollar deal with Chinese company to develop petroleum and natural gas in the Somali region. Moreover, the company is to design storage, transportation, and marketing logistics as well as to build pipelines for domestic and international supply.

On April 28, 2020, the Ethiopian government signed $3.6 billion deal with a Virginia-based energy firm named GreenComm Technologies to construct an oil refinery in Ethiopia’s oil-rich Somali region. Reminiscent of the Somali facilitated British predatory capitalist Soma Oil and Gas, there is only one problem: the company has neither the expertise nor the credibility to be trusted with such contract. And though the Ethiopian government indicated the willingness to cancel, there is no official report confirming that.  

Scenario Two:

A false flag scheme to re-shuffle the cards in the Horn with derailment of the Horn Economic Integration engineered by the European Union, championed by Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, and funded by the U.A.E. Under such scheme a pretext for prolonged strategic military campaigns and political torpedoes launched from a selected federal state is established. So Ethiopia and Somalia, or President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, will spend the next four years riding a dangerous roller-coaster, as did President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) and President Uhuru Kenyatta. Meanwhile Somalia is secured membership in the East African Community (EAC) and a peace-keeping force that excludes Ethiopia.

Scenario Three:

To further hammer Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has already lost a loyal partner in the loss of Farmajo. Under this scenario multiple deadly fronts are opened. This scenario is based on the assumption that the United Arab Emirates or President Mohammed bin Zayed has turned his back to the European project that this author criticized before and dropped Abiy Ahmed from his previous pivotal role. Of course the natural replacement is none other than President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea who secured UAE a military base while it was actively partaking the war in Yemen and just completed training 5000 Somali soldiers to provide military protection as UAE colonizes Socotra in partnership with Israel.  

“The saga of these Somali soldiers has been full of twists and turns,” wrote Michelle Gavin, security experts for the Council on Foreign Relations. This lucrative clandestine mercenary project was equivocated and denied by the Farmajo government until literally the last minutes before ceremonially handing over the presidential authority to the newly elected President HSM.

Scenario Four:

To reengineer a new balance of power that would end the ethnic-cleansing of the Tigrayans and boost their military capacity to ultimately takeover what is considered as a viable economic insurance- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This requires stretching the Ethiopian military power so thin by opening on it many military fronts. The coalition of the willing under this scenario may include Egypt that considers the dam’s drastic impact on the flow of the Nile as an existential threat, Sudan, the U.S. And due to the rapidly changing geopolitics of the region, and Ethiopia’s steadily growing ethnic nationalism, it is likely to include U.A.E and Israel whose strategic and economical interest in the Nile water is no secret.

Scenario Five:

A combination of the listed scenarios; and this could prove the most complex one to decode and deal with.       

Relevant Context 

For more than a decade, Ethiopia has been dominating the Bay and Bakool regions of the South West federal-state of Somalia. It has been its most reliable laboratory where Ethiopia trained and mobilized some of its most notorious clandestine allies, the violent neo-Islamists such as Mukhtar Robow (still held as a political prisoner) and his militia, and tribal secularists such as Abdirashid Janan and his militias for of subversion and security dependency (AMISOM).

Intriguingly, the Shabaab militia that attacked Ethiopia is reported to have been trained in the Jubbaland federal-state (Jilib and Ras Kamboni). And their objective according to the Governor of Bakool was to raise their flag inside Ethiopia.

To accept that Shabaab would carry out such daring operation with such reported large number of its militia out of Jubbaland while ignoring the temptation to take the jewel of that federal state – Kismayo – or to takeover U.S.’ only military base in Somalia and to chase the American troops out of that region requires an extremely wild imagination that some of us do not possess.

It was recently revealed that billions of top of the line American weapons were abandoned in Afghanistan when Western forces hastily pulled out of the country in 2021. Adding to the shame of leaving many of their own citizens as well as Afghan allies and TERPS to be brutalised in Afghanistan, the billions in weapons have now been found in conflict zones bordering India and will likely infest the region with added violence for generations to come.

The former weapons boom was greatly contributed to by people like Viktor Bout, a well known arms dealer who supplied many of the world’s conflicts in the region and worldwide after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The stockpiles of weapons that were accessed from Eastern Bloc nations that were storing them for an upcoming Third World War found their way to villages in Iraq , throughout conflict zones in Africa and in every part of the globe. Viktor Bout has made it back into the news as a possible US prisoner to be exchanged to Russia. The last time he was mentioned in the media was following his arrest and regarding a Hollywood movie that was loosely based on him called Lord of War.

The after effect of leaving Afghanistan may be a contributing factor to many of the recent conflicts in the world just a few shorts months after 2021. No one would have expected Russia to move past the Eastern regions of Ukraine into Kyiv and Odesa in 2021. Despite the heavy push back in Ukraine, it seems like militants in Afghanistan are now better equipped than most NATO supplied Ukrainian soldiers. These signs of uncoordinated disinterest on the part of the US creates the perception that they would not commit to pushing back against traditional adversaries. Already within a short period of time, Taiwan has been threatened, Iran has increased their rhetoric and actions in upgrading their nuclear program, and intellectuals and innocents have been assaulted deep inside free, Western democracies.

The activity NATO allies have had in supporting weapons transfers to Ukraine has not been met on the greater strategic front. While some of the best German artillery systems have now entered the conflict zone in Ukraine, there is a looming energy crisis approaching Germany and Europe in 2022. To the point where Russia can simply turn off the gas to Europe in winter, North American oil and gas have not committed in any meaningful way to support their friends and cousins in Europe. It has come to the point where Canada was supplying repaired pipeline turbines to Russia, enraging the International Ukrainian community to the point where they issued a lawsuit in Canada on the act. The end result was that Russia claimed the turbines would not be sufficient to supply Germany with fuel in any case, and a new pipeline project was announced between Russia and China. With actions like these coming from NATO allies, the message to many regimes around the world is to take advantage of the chaos.

 

 

 

 

For the last couple of years, I have been writing a book about Ayoob Kara, who served as Israel’s Communication, Cyber and Satellite Minister under Netanyahu.  Today, I finished writing the book and I am in the process of editing and publishing it.   The book is titled, “Ayoob Kara: The Man Behind the Abraham Accords.” One of the main issues that the book tackles is the Iranian threat and how the West should deal with a nuclear Iran.   

At a time when the Biden administration is desperately trying to reach any deal with Iran, Kara has called upon the free world to stop trading with Iran: “The sanctions are very important for stopping Iran.   We have to stop all free countries from buying anything from Iran.  If the world lifts sanctions on Iran, then they will wage war and occupy other states, like they did already in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Libya, etc.   They destroy all of the states they can.   They use all of their money to support this terror.”  For this reason, no one should trade with the Islamic Republic of Iran and view it as a solution to Europe’s energy crisis that was caused by the war in Ukraine.

 Aside from keeping all sanctions in place, the Honorable Kara believes that the best way to fight against the Iranian regime is to have a coalition of states unite together to address the Iranian threat: “All of the Middle Eastern countries should have a system like NATO in Europe.”  He believes that Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Israel, Morocco and perhaps other countries in the Middle East region could form such a union, as all of these countries are threatened by Iran’s hegemony in the Middle East.

According to Kara, “The Shiites in Iran seek to occupy the Sunni areas.   The fighting between the Shias and Sunnis has been ongoing since the days of the Prophet Muhammed.  The Shias believe in Ali and the Sunnis do not.  Afterwards, there was a big fight between them.  The Sunnis threw them out of Saudi Arabia and sent the Shias north to Iran, which became the capital of the Shias.   This situation makes the Shias feel like outsiders in the Islamic world.   The Sunnis hate them so much not only because they fought with them about who succeeds Muhammed.   They hate them for the empire they created.  For many years, the Shias say among themselves that even though the Sunnis sent them far away from the holy areas of Islam, one day we must re-occupy them.” 

For this reason, Kara believes that the Iranians seek to occupy the Arab areas of the Middle East before Israel and thus that the Sunni countries in the Middle East are Israel’s natural allies.    Kara supports the creation of a Turkic Union, where all of the Turkic states like Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, etc. unite together to fight against the Iranians: “This is very important.   This stops Iran from expanding.”  Historically, it was the Turkic nations who fought against the Persians in the past, so Kara believes they have a role to play in stopping the expansion of the Shia Crescent.   Kara noted that he visited Azerbaijan’s border with Iran, as a means to counter Soleimani’s visit to the Lebanese-Israeli border: “It is important to show them that we don’t care and we have the power to help states like Azerbaijan that hate the extremism.”

Kara believes that the free world has a duty to stop the Shia Crescent and to help the Iranian people obtain freedom: “I think that all of the minorities inside Iran must shake hands and cooperate together against the mullahs to destroy the regime, and the world must support these minorities.   We should do everything to stop the Iranian regime including supporting the independence movements of many of the minorities in Iran for the number one danger now is Iran.”  Thus, there should be a free Ahwaz nation, a free Baluchistan, a free South Azerbaijan, etc.   

–

By Rachel Avraham

Canada sends Nord Stream turbine to Germany, despite Ukraine resistance

Active Support for Ukraine has made history for the amount of funds and military equipment that has been given to Ukraine by NATO and other supportive nations. Sanctions against Russia has also made history for the level of restrictions and depth of sanctions against Russia’s Government and those tied to Putin himself. The donated advanced military equipment has taken a large toll on Russian forces in Ukraine, as systems like Hi-Mars and Javelin have given Ukraine the ability to stop Russian tanks and armour in the field and challenge Russian positions.

A recent break in relations between Ukraine and some of its NATO allies took place when Canada decided to suspend parts of its sanctions and send upwards of six gas turbines to Germany’s Russian oil pipeline in order for Russia to send oil to Germany via a main pipeline in Europe. Despite sanctions, Canada readily sent equipment to Russia that would help financially support their war effort. While the intent of the turbine and pipeline is to get fuel to Germany, and much of Europe is still unable to displace Russian oil and gas from their economies, it angered President Zelinsky to such a degree that Ukrainian organisations decided to sue over the actions. This act is also compounded with the fact that North American oil and gas has done little to increase production in order to displace Russian oil in Europe. The strategy so far has been to beg countries with atrocious human rights records to increase production. In one instance, Iran was tapped by Russia directly for military equipment in the form of drones, a country that has been asked by the United States to increase production to help ease fuel prices in support of the effort to protect Ukraine.

Open support for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people have been openly bold, but when looking into the finer details, some of the support has been more useful for publicity at home than in aid of soldiers on the ground in Ukraine. In this interview linked here, a Canadian fighting on the ground in Ukraine stated that half of the night vision equipment sent to them from Canada simply did not work. With transport so difficult to the front line in Ukraine right now, occupying shipping space with broken equipment is a multilevel detriment to the war effort in Ukraine. Even when assisting Ukrainian refugees into their country, Canada has created a special status for Ukrainian claimants into Canada that removes some of the supports under their normal Refugee Protection system. This left many in difficult situations when in Canada. Even on the announcement of a hotel for refugees in the middle of their largest city, Ukrainians were not allowed to have access to this newly funded refugee shelter, despite them consisting mostly of women and children in an area close to their larger immigrant community. In a time when Canadian citizens who’s families are the victim of Iran’s Government murdering them on Flight 752, Canada has told the families that they will only be represented by Ukraine in the international claim, this while Ukraine is at war and trying to preserve the continued existence of their own country.

While the world has decided to help Ukraine and punish Russia in support of Ukraine and its people, help must be given in a meaningful way. This means not tying policies to help Ukrainians with those also supporting Russian forces in the conflict on the other end of the policy approach. This means not treating Ukrainian refugees better or worse than others making those claims, and giving them equal treatment in the processes that are well established to help those running from war and human rights abuses. Actions taken by the International Ukrainian Community should extend past the turbine issue, to how refugees from Ukraine are being treated in the few instances where systemic discrimination is being applied upon their arrival to safe countries. The image of help is worth little to those who really need it.

 

 

In his famous 19th century work Democracy in America, Alexis de Tocqueville wrote that “… a democracy is unable to regulate the details of an important undertaking, to persevere in a design, and to work out its execution in the persistence of serious obstacles. It cannot combine its measures with secrecy, and it will not await their consequences with patience.”(261) Unfortunately, it was these traits, de Tocqueville argued, that lead nations towards successful foreign policies over the long term. For decades American foreign policy has fallen to each of these traps.

Inconsistent messaging and even more inconsistent policies have become a complication for the United States both at home and abroad. 

The American economy appears to be heading towards a downturn- months of rising prices, increasing interest rates, and supply shortages all make this point crystal clear for consumers. These challenges are not only apparent to everyday Americans- policy makers ranging from President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell have each recognized this issue through their public statements. However, despite the broad recognition that the economy appears on the brink of a downturn, leading policymakers offer different justifications for the tough times that appear ahead.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen infamously referred to inflation as “transitory” before being forced to walk back those comments. President Biden has suggested that economic challenges are, in large part, a consequence of Russian aggression in Ukraine. While Chairman Powell has pointed to a post-pandemic economy as a leading cause of economic turbulence. 

This communications debacle is evidence of the inconsistencies intrinsic to democratic government that de Tocqueville describes- more importantly, it leaves Americans pessimistic about our economic prospects, divided about who is to blame, and unsure of how to move forward.

In a similar way, officials from the State Department have regularly been called upon to clarify statements given directly by the President. This weak messaging both domestically and abroad creates an opportunity for America’s rivals to fill the void, and it is worth considering how they have chosen to do so.

Reviewing the content of Russia Today* (a state-controlled media company with headquarters in Moscow) offers insights about how leadership in the Kremlin wants its readers to understand the state of the American economy. A visitor to the site might expect to find articles arguing that Russia was defeating the United States in Ukraine, and that America’s economic uncertainty is a consequence of challenging Russian might. Instead, a visitor will find articles arguing that American economic uncertainty is a self-inflicted wound. Additionally, instead of articles highlighting the military prowess of the Russian army, they would find stories highlighting the resilience of the Russian economy despite American efforts to limit Russian exports.

Despite what might appear to be an obvious opportunity for nationalistic chest-thumping, an apparent plurality of Russia Today’s articles highlight examples of disfunuction in the U.S. lead NATO bloc. RT features disputes between American policy makers, stories of American media censorship, and polls suggesting that Americans have a grim outlook about their economic prospects. The United States is not the only nation targeted by these efforts- others in the EU and NATO have their institutions scrutinized as well.

This highlights something important about the way that the Kremlin leverages its role in Russian media. Rather than display examples of military victories, Russian media praises the resilience of the Russian people and the stability offered by leadership in Moscow. Instead of arguing that American economic uncertainty is a consequence of challenging Putin, RT presents the economic downturn as a self-inflicted wound. In truth, the publication goes out of its way to highlight how few Americans blame the autocrat for their economic woes. 

Russian state media does not work to persuade Russians that their lives are somehow better than the lives of people who live in democratic nations. Instead, these outlets make the nihilistic argument that all governments make promises they can’t keep, that all institutions are corrupt, and that the average American is just as far away from real political influence as the average Russian. The message is not competition, but a sense of shared hopelessness… and at least Putin offers stability in the chaos.

This one insight, however, reveals a second insight. The reality that the Kremlin has been hesitant to “take credit” for America’s stumbles highlights the potential that, one day, Putin might begin to accept that credit and Russian state-media might take on a more competitive tone. To date, the Kremlin has suggested that “Western” institutions have either failed or have been corrupted, and that this fundamental weakness has resulted in a floundering economy and a toxic political environment. Should Kremlin supported media outlets begin to frame American “vulnerability” as a consequence of the United States losing a direct contest with Russia, it might suggest that Putin is preparing for an even more egregious action that would require popular support (much less knowledge).

Poorly managed communications, finger pointing, and a sporadic U.S foreign policy vision has created a vacuum in messaging. Russia, along with other American rivals, have exploited this opportunity.

None of this speaks to the importance of clear and positive messaging in the Southern Hemisphere, where the United States is already bidding for influence against an expanding list of rivals. 

Addressing this problem means considering foreign policy choices more seriously, and more consistently both locally and in Washington D.C.. It means going out of our way to learn about the world’s most pressing problems, and it means using that knowledge to ensure that the leaders we elect guide the nation’s foreign policy with the long view in mind. 

The success of American foreign policy, far more than in autocratic regimes, is dependent on a citizenry that is informed and engaged. A more informed and engaged body of citizens would demand a higher quality of messaging from elected leaders both for internal consumption and international ears.

Ultimately, our ability to shore up these liabilities comes down to our ability to overcome the hazards that de Tocqueville predicts. It is our responsibility to be educated about key global issues, and to press representatives in Washington to prioritize long sighted foreign policy decision making. 

Only by learning to plan, persevere, and await the consequences patiently will American foreign policy be able to move forward in a wise and consistent direction. 

—

*Russia Today is a state-media company that is registered as a direct agent of the Russian government. Neither the Foreign Policy Association nor the author espouse the views that are expressed on that platform. 

Peter Scaturro is the Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association

51T6 SH-11 Gorgon exoatmospheric ABM Transporter/Loader, an older type designed as part of a defensive missile ring around Moscow.

A peculiar occurrence happened recently where what looks to be a Russian BUK missile turned around after launch and impacted the area around its own launch vehicle. Speculation on how and why this occurred was painted by many narratives on the conflict. While it may be assumed that the missile or system may have been hacked or manipulated, it is likely the result of poor manufacturing errors or the use of older advanced equipment with degraded safety abilities. While systems like the SA-11 BUK-M1 was high tech for its time and is still extremely effective, it is a complicated system that is filled with several checks before a launch can occur. With so many things that can go wrong, crew training may have not been able to stop that type of accident. The video of that launch can be seen here.

Despite Russia has suffering many losses, the assumption that there is no longer a major threat by Russia towards Western Ukraine and Europe seems to be taken in light humour by some G7 leaders, while those countries bordering Russia and Ukraine are on constant and urgent high alert. NATO soldiers have been training those fighting in Ukraine outside of the territory since the beginning of the war with some reports showing that expanded NATO training inside Ukraine may have already been established. Speeches at the G7 seek to pressure Russia further, but the resulting pressure has increased the value of Russia’s energy so greatly that there economic effects on Russia’s oil exports have done little damage to the value of the Rouble.

Backing Russia into an economic corner without expanding the displacement of its energy exports with North American energy will never be successful as Europe is still largely dependent on Russian energy exports. Other BRICS nations continue their purchases of Russian oil and food into their own economies and seem to have closer relationships with other OPEC members the US is begging for energy assistance. It is clear that Russian export revenues through its energy products is enabling it to continue the conflict, even if it is being depleted of its weaponry. Adding more direct NATO involvement may create a more dangerous situation as opposed to taking a serious commitment in displacing Russian energy exports. While inflation is having a direct and notable impact in Western nations, Russia can still escalate the conflict outside of Ukraine greatly with their long range missile capabilities.

Poland was able to secure later types of the Patriot missile systems after years of delays in obtaining a proper missile defense option for itself. The later models of the Patriot system, called PAC-3, is able to shoot down other missiles, a feature which is now needed as Russia’s proximity and the ability to fire medium range ballistic missiles puts Polish forces at great risk. While the effectiveness of the PAC-3 against fast moving targets has not been properly tested in combat, the lack of response to North Korean missile tests and the fact that some Russian missiles like the Kinzhal can travel as high as Mach 10, makes it difficult to counter some of Russia’s missile systems.

Soviet missile defense technology was always a game changer during the Cold War. Russia’s own defense is tied to that of a early 90s Soviet defense doctrine. While invading Ukraine was always going to be difficult as it was also designed to repel a NATO advance with defense technology from 1990s era equipment, so does later generations of missiles like the S-400 air defense systems make the airspace over Kyiv dangerous for Ukrainian interceptor jets. An advancement of NATO deeper into Ukraine will pull the conflict outside of the range of a Javelin missile type conflict, towards one where Russia has a large ballistic missile advantage. One thing that is certain, is that Russian missile technology is above and beyond other equipment in their arsenal and is often equal or better than their Western counterparts. This has been worked on for a few generations as even a strike on Moscow could be repelled in theory, as Russia has had a significant ABM(Anti-Ballistic Missile) system since the 1950s that is continually upgraded with special missiles designed to repel a nuclear attack and the latest S-500 system. Mobile missiles like TOPOL and SARMAT have been put in position towards Europe, and even have been moved to Northern Russia to target the Arctic Region and North America. In light of the reality, we should expect our leaders to keep their focus on reducing a wider conflict before testing their comedy routines during G7 meetings.

With less than five months until the 2022 World Cup, Qatar is making final preparations to host millions of fans. FIFA permitted Qatar to host the 2022 games back in 2010. Since then, Qatar has spent an estimated $220 billion on new stadiums, roads, hotels, and other necessities to accommodate incoming fans. The burden of labor to create this infrastructure has fallen on migrant workers. Migrant labor dominates economies in the Gulf – it constitutes an average of 70% of all labor in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.  In Qatar, it constitutes an astonishing 95% of all labor, according to Human Rights Watch. For the last decade, Qatar has faced increasing criticism regarding its system for migrant labor. The Kafala System, utilized by all Gulf countries, leaves employees extremely vulnerable to the will of their employer. By perpetuating uneven power dynamics without much oversight, this system exposes millions of workers to exploitation and abuse. This exploitation and abuse runs rampant amongst workers hired to build infrastructure for the 2022 World Cup.

The Kafala system invites exploitation by giving employers permission to act as a sponsor for individual workers. The employer covers all travel and housing expenses for the migrant. In return, employers have relatively unregulated control over employees’ autonomy. Employers control migrant workers’ legal status, visa status, and often retain important documents such as passports. Employers also have control over workers’ ability to change jobs. By refusing to transfer documents to the new employer, previous employers can essentially force workers to remain in place. Employers can also render employees as illegal migrants by refusing to renew visa documents – upon discovery by authorities, an undocumented migrant can face severe fines and jail time. The extremely unequal power dynamic gives the employer, or sponsor, full control over the worker’s mobility, autonomy, and livelihood. Additionally, migrant workers regularly face issues of delayed wages, long hours, and extremely dangerous working conditions. Since 2010, over 6,500 migrant workers have died in Qatar.

In 2017, the International Labor Organization (ILO) acknowledged these issues. They entered into an agreement with Qatar aimed at tackling the country’s labor problems. This agreement looked to reform the Kafala System, increase workers’ access to justice, improve health and safety for workers, and regulate wages. In return for these changes, the ILO promised to withdraw its request for the World Cup to be moved elsewhere. Qatar passed several new pieces of legislation in line with the agreement. While the situation has improved over the last five years, much of the new legislation addresses the situation in name only. Migrant laborers still face a multitude of life-threatening issues. Of the 6,500 workers who have died in Qatar, many died during dangerous construction jobs, from heat-related incidents, in road accidents, or from unsafe living conditions in labor camps. The World Cup will occur as planned in November, despite this devastating human toll. FIFA appears to be taking little to no action. Major international players, including the ILO, UN, and governments like the United States, need to acknowledge the reality of the situation. The enjoyment of soccer fans across the world comes at the cost of abused and exploited workers. The international community needs to do better.

Qatar’s new legislation has addressed some of these issues. It removed the exit permit requirement, which gave employers control over migrants’ ability to leave the country. New legislation also removed the ability of employers to prevent workers from changing jobs. Qatar established a new minimum wage, a wage protection system, new labor dispute committees, and a workers’ insurance fund. However, weak implementation requirements have left millions of workers without knowledge of their rights. Many employers continue to utilize unsafe practices. Passport confiscation continues to occur, employees still experience harsh working conditions, and wage theft is common. In July 2020, Amnesty International found that around 100 employees who built Al Bayt Stadium had been denied their wages for nearly seven months.

The 2022 World Cup will occur only thanks to the hours of dangerous labor completed by underpaid and mistreated migrant workers. While the 2017 ILO agreement marginally improved labor rights in Qatar, it did not successfully defend the two million individuals it was created to protect. It seems as though everyone, including the ILO, has turned their backs on some of the world’s most vulnerable. Amnesty International has called for FIFA to donate around $440 million to the migrant workers who worked on the World Cup. This money would be intended to cover the “loss and abuse” they suffered over the last ten years. FIFA acknowledged Amnesty International’s request but only promised to implement a “due diligence process.” It seems unlikely migrant workers will ever receive any reparations. The World Cup provides a massive platform to raise awareness for migrant labor issues. The governments of participating teams should take the opportunity to voice concern over working conditions and the general status of human rights in Qatar. If FIFA refuses to acknowledge its complacency with labor exploitation, participating governments need to step up.

Last week, I traveled to Azerbaijan together with former Israeli Communication Minister Ayoob Kara, who visited Agdam, a city in the war-torn Karabakh region and Baku, where the Honorable Kara was one of 22 foreign experts who gave a talk at Ada University as part of a panel titled “Development in the post-conflict period in the South Caucuses.”   Other speakers included Hikmet Aliyev, the special advisor of Azerbaijan’s president, Fuad Muradov, the chairman of the State Committee on the Work with the Diaspora, and a number of other Azerbaijani government ministers.

In the tour of Agdam, the Honorable Kara saw the ruins of a city, where 100,000 people used to live in the Soviet period.  He saw the ruins of the historic Bread Museum, which used to house a loaf of bread that was preserved by Soviet soldiers dating from the Second World War.  All that remains of that museum is a half-destroyed mural.   He saw tombs dating from the Karabakh khanate, a world heritage site which were partially destroyed.  He saw a mosque, which until recently housed pigs and goats, and was used as an Armenian watch tower.  And he saw the remnants of a cemetery, where all of the bones were thrown away, with the tombstones and gold teeth in the graves being sold for use in the Islamic Republic of Iran.  And until relatively recently, all of these areas were covered in landmines.     

After seeing that, Kara gave an interview to Eurasia Daily, where he declared: “I witnessed terrible destruction.   Mined areas are the greatest disaster of our time.  During our visit, we stated to the government of Azerbaijan that we could provide technological support to Azerbaijan in the field of mind clearance.  Israel has invented a new robotic technology to clear landmines.   With the help of these robot machines, any type of mine can be safely removed from various depths of the earth without manual interference.  We have informed the Azerbaijani government about this in detail and made our proposals.” 

According to him, all of these robots will be able to clear off landmines without the need for landmine maps.   For Azerbaijan, this is critical, as officials in the Azerbaijani government claim that only 25% of the landmine maps that Armenia gave them are usable.    Presently, there are up to a million mines that were planted in the Karabakh region.   

At the conference, Vugar Suleymanov, the chairman of the Mine Action Agency of Azerbaijan, proclaimed: “Azerbaijan is one of the most landmine contaminated countries in the world.    Mines are indiscriminate.   Since the end of the war, there were 228 landmine incidents, which injured 184 and killed 39.”   

However, the Honorable Kara believes a better future is within reach.   In the interview, the Honorable Former Minister also related that he would like to support the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.   Kara proclaimed in his speech: “Azerbaijan has the land of Karabakh.  It is legitimate. Armenia has to accept it.  Different people have to push to find a solution that the two states can be in a better relationship.  Peace is the right way to go.  It is not easy.   It will not happen tomorrow, but it could happen in the next several years if we work hard on it.”

According to him, “The State of Israel can help with different innovations, technologies that both sides need.  For that reason, we can influence.  We have the power to do it as we crossed the same thing in different states in the Middle East.  Peace can happen if you influence that and convince the other side to support that.”

The Honorable Kara declared that this is what happened with the Abraham Accords, when Israel succeeded to make peace with four different countries: “Step by step, after Trump was elected, this has become a reality and the same thing could happen here.   I think that after I visited Shusha last year with Rachel, we understand that you need different things to support the Karabakh area.   I can help you to find a solution for everything that is necessary there.  I know that there are a lot of people coming from Israel here to help but I think as the former Minister of Communication, Cyber and Satellite, I have the connections needed to help Azerbaijan.”

The respectable former minister called upon the State of Israel to use all of its power in order to help Azerbaijan obtain the conditions needed to make peace with Armenia.  He also called upon the foreign experts at the conference to do everything in their power to help Azerbaijan: “Slowly, slowly, the conflict will subside if we work together.   If the world says something together, it will be more powerful than just Azerbaijan or Israel saying something.” 

Peacekeeping operations have become a fixture within the international arena and core practice of international organizations since the end of the Cold War. However, these operations, particularly those run by the United Nations, have had a torrid relationship with intelligence collection and analysis. There has been consistent opposition by member states to establishing an intelligence office within the UN, and, up until 2017, the UN had no procedures for acquiring and analyzing information in support of their peacekeeping operations. Despite this improvement, not having a standing office capable of independently deciphering and combing through the piles of information has severely limited the ability of the UN to prepare and support its peacekeeping operations. The current policy is too reliant on the kindness of its member states which does nothing but create a situation where vital information is given based on national interest. However, a permanent office capable of doing so in a way that protects civilians and the reputation of the UN is not only easily conceivable but entirely feasible.

Two reports commissioned by the UN Secretary-General have begged the UN to establish an office for acquiring and analyzing information pertinent to the operation’s success. The Brahimi Report, which debuted in 2000, detailed an office capable of collecting and analyzing data for the Secretariat to plan peacekeeping operations and identify potential conflicts. The Brahimi Report notes that an information analysis office would allow for developing short-term and long-term mission planning and crisis response. Had this office been implemented, it would have allowed several peacekeeping operations to possess adequate resources and prevented disasters like the kidnapping of over 200 UN peacekeepers in Sierra Leone, which happened that same year. The UN was again warned of the dangers of being unable to independently analyze information in the High-Level Independent Panel on Peace Operations (HIPPO Report) report, which further pleaded for the UN Secretariat to expand its analytical capabilities to support peace operations. The UN took these cries for reform and formulated an intelligence and information analysis policy that relied upon member states willingly turning it over to the UN, potentially exposing their sources, methods, and collection from peacekeepers.

The unreliability of the status quo therefore necessitates the creation of an office as described by both reports and addresses any potential concerns laid out by UN member states. This office must be impartial, assist in the planning of peacekeeping operations, and make use of emerging technologies.

Covert and clandestine operations have been a prominent feature within states’ intelligence agencies since their very inception. This is likely a feature that has probably led to the opposition of an intelligence analysis service. However, the rise of social media platforms and the Internet have led to the expansion of open-source intelligence (OSINT) tools that make information gathering and analysis accessible to even the average person. Therefore, an intelligence analysis office that the UN would not need to rely on secretive methods; instead, they would be utilizing techniques and practices widely available worldwide. The only real need for classification by a UN information office would be to protect human intelligence (HUMINT) sources for their safety.

Intelligence needs to be politically independent and free of bias to be effectively understood and respected by decision-makers, especially when coming from the UN. Moreover, since this office would need to be constantly analyzing information to plan for peacekeeping operations, states may feel threatened by being labeled as a threat to international peace and security. As such, an office meant to support peacekeeping operations would need to be professional and adhere to the same recruitment and hiring practices that all UN employees go through. Of course, maintaining the utmost professionalism is crucial to any intelligence agency. Still, it will be incredibly essential to one serving at the bequest of the UN; an international organization meant to support international peace and security.

Being able to assess and take action on information accurately is crucial to the success of any operation, especially peacekeeping ones employed by the UN. Without a longstanding office, the ability of peacekeepers to conduct themselves will eventually diminish and render them unable to protect civilians, one of their highest priorities effectively. However, new technologies and robust professionalism by analysts can make for the perfect early warning system for crises that may require the presence of UN peacekeepers. As a result, these operations will be better resourced, planned, and overall more effective.

—

Peter Roberto is a M.A. candidate at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations where he is the Incoming Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Diplomacy & International Relations and conducted research with the National Security Fellowship.

For United States citizens, policy developments in the Americas were always tied to the belief that the United States saw the region as their own geographical backyard. The ascent of the United States as a world power following the Spanish-American Wars and their relative economic stability compared to Europe following the First and Second World Wars turned them into a powerful hegemony in the Americas.

Balancing the hegemony of the United States through Soviet ties was done on a few occasions during the greater Cold War era. The trend of Left wing dictatorships, often based around narcotics or energy expropriation followed in the post 2000 era. The last decade and a half enshrined these divides and saw them diminish internally as US policy remained as paper projects never implemented. Foreign actors entered the region during this more recent and somewhat lost period of US policy towards Latin America. While a lack of US influence in the region has had its positive and negative results, the current policy approach doubles down on mediocrity as regional crises are challenged by local hegemons in Latin America.

The recent Summit of the Americas was hosted by the United States who clearly had other regions on its mind in 2022. While health policy was a focus of the Summit, the real challenges faced by one of the hardest hit regions by Covid will have little impact as Covid numbers wain. Like for all of us, inflation and employment is dominating their focus as economic chaos and recovery create new challenges and harm citizens in the US, Canada and Latin America simultaneously.

While these more serious issues were not the main target of policy approaches during the Summit of the Americas, they already are having a grand effect on the region itself. Countries excluded during the Summit have already taken to increase ties with Russia as a buffer against the US. Venezuela has been upgrading its military with some of the most advanced Russian jets and missile systems for a generation at this point and has close ties with Iran and China. Venezuelan refugees in Latin America make up one of the largest displaced populations in the world, and while they did give some funding for those issues at the Summit, there was little focus on the cause of the Venezuelan refugee crisis and Human Rights crisis taking place within ballistic missile striking distance of the United States.

The Summit did little to change the policy of restricting North American energy while a displacement of Russian energy is a key tool to ending the War in Ukraine. Openly dropping human rights based restrictions on OPEC members like Venezuela and Iran in order to displace Russian oil is simply fuelling more abuses against Venezuelan refugees, human rights activists in Iran and those in their regions being affected by funding further conflict. Without North American oil and gas displacing Russia’s funding source for weapons of war, they are just displacing conflict. Adding conflict in Latin America and other regions with the intent to help Ukraine will simply result in more atrocities and acts of war in other parts of the world. There is no point in holding a Summit of the Americas if the two biggest economies, the USA and Canada, do not intend to enact policies to reduce conflict in the region and abroad.

China’s economic investment in Latin America has been taking place for over a decade and a half at this point, tying even US allies like Colombia, Brazil and Argentina to Chinese infrastructure projects and natural resource dependency. While diversifying their economies away from the United States is a logical and beneficial decision, linking to only one other producer will likely have a similar effect as in the past where agro-economies rise and fall with the international price of their natural resource goods. The focus of industrialisation in one form or another was the strategy they used to ensure a flexible and diverse economic base in many Latin American countries for generations. It seems like the stability of long term policies have waned, diversifying customers as opposed to creating more economic opportunities for citizens in Latin America. This has not been as much of an issue in IT hubs in Brazil and manufacturing in Mexico, but the economic situation in those countries can change rapidly with the US Administration challenging Brazil’s leadership and Mexico’s President declaring himself absent from the Summit of the Americas altogether.

In 2022, the United States should focus on re-balancing their role in the region with that of China and take serious steps to reduce added conflict in Latin America. While agreements fade and alliances break apart, at the bare minimum the United States should act as an engine for economic diversity and a cap on added international conflict in Latin America. At this point at the end of the Summit, they have barely achieved any of those essential goals.

The Reformer’s View?

On April 27 the Department of State announced a fundamental change to its process for selecting new career Foreign Service Officers.  Where candidates have long had to pass the written Foreign Service Test for consideration, that test would now be one of a number of considerations that would be considered by a panel.  Exact criteria and explicit objectives for the panel to follow were not announced.  The new process would take effect for the June application cycle.

 

It is hard to discern exact motives for this change.  Those who noticed did not generally hold a strong brief for the old test, but noted its original intent to promote professionalism.  Few see particular merit in the new process as announced.  One comment suggested using the old test to screen politically appointed ambassadors.  While few wanted to say so, one media outlet did cast the change as a diversity promotion move.  The possibility for polarized politics to dominate any consideration of new processes certainly exists, whatever the exact motives behind the change.

 

The change is a case of carts before horses.  Particularly for a people-based function such as the conduct of diplomacy, new personnel should be suited to the demands of the function.  Those demands should follow from an institutional understanding of what, in this case, diplomacy is and how it should work.  Traditional ambassadors knew their kings personally, and even in the post-industrial age any permanent official representative of a sovereign should know that sovereign intimately, to represent it and provide counsel.  America’s is the people, defined in the Declaration of Independence as “we” who hold certain “self-evident” truths.  U.S. diplomats need an engrained sense for, and clear fluency in,  that identity and its nuances, first inculcated as a pillar of their professional formation.

 

The Department of State needs to ascertain its institutional character, so that any formative process or intake process create a body of diplomats who know their fundamental mission.  A   two-paragraph announcement on short notice that changes something as significant as the selection process might well signal that other basic functions might also undergo far-reaching, summarily-declared, overhaul.  The Department of State could end up remaking itself from the ground up without naming its mission and with no deliberation in public discourse.   Someone needs to ask that first question.

Russian T-90M, its most advanced tank on the battlefied in Ukraine was destroyed by possible artillery strike.

Russia seemed to have pulled back many of its forces to the eastern regions of Ukraine in order to consolidate the takeover of the eastern regions of Lugansk, Donbas and the surrounding area. It is difficult to measure what the end goal of the Russian forces may be at this point. Ukraine’s response in moving forces south to retake Kherson and moving their forces protecting Kyiv into the area around Kharkiv may lead to quickly shifting battle lines or produce a stalemate as Ukraine takes to the offensive. The fate of many of Russia’s armoured units may burden Ukraine’s forces if Ukraine chooses to enter fortified urban areas that are filled with anti-tank equipment that has proven very effective against BMPs, T-72s, T-80s and even T-90s, systems that both Russia and Ukraine use in this conflict.

While modern tanks and weapons systems started the conflict, many of them were beaten by Cold War era technology with significant numbers and tactics to defeat modernised tanks and aircraft. Much of the success in this conflict comes from a tradition of defending the territory with weapons designed mostly for defense. The advanced missile technology developed over generations was built around keeping a Second World War type invasion out of the Soviet Union, with Ukraine being the most likely battleground for the fate of the Soviet Union. Taking out Ukraine’s Servant of the People and his Cabinet was never a simple task, and Ukraine was designed as the best defense structure in the world in the 1990s apart from Moscow itself.

What seems to be occurring is that Moscow will want to claim some sort of victory and will try to keep the eastern regions and maintain its hold on Crimea. Ukraine’s push to retake Kherson and protect the flank around Odessa is important as Russia may try to bottleneck Ukraine’s Black Sea access, which would mean Ukraine would become landlocked and will suffer economically in the long run as a result. While Poland has made agreements to help Ukraine remain competitive as an export economy by proposing a shared customs regime and opening its northern sea access to Ukraine in good faith, a Russian move to dominate the Ukrainian coast is likely a strategic long term goal besides claiming Eastern Ukraine for Russian backed forces.

The weakening of Russia’s view worldwide will likely have a massive effect on Putin and Russia if countries surrounding Russia see them as a Paper Bear. If Russia ends up losing Crimea for example, there is little keeping Putin in office after that act. Countries that are dependent on Russia’s protection will likely be challenged further as well. Actions in the Caucasus region may flare up as they did recently between Azerbaijan and Russian backed Armenia. India may try to source more of its defense equipment from France or other NATO allies as confidence in their T-90MS tank force diminishes with pictures of burning T-90M being shown in Ukraine.

China, that always shared a border with Russia in a Cold Peace may look to consolidate old conflicts with the knowledge that the PLA could likely stand up to modern Russian equipment in the field. The conflict in the Middle East will likely have the biggest result, as Russian forces supporting President Assad in Syria may have to re-engage in the region with less funds, less equipment and less of an appetite for the loss of young Russian soldiers in a foreign war. Iran’s S-300 systems and first generation TOR missiles may no longer be seen as the threat they once were, and knowledge in defeating those systems will leave a gap in their air defense.

Much of the prolonged conflict may simply be a result of saving face where losses have become hard to spin as a point of national pride. Diplomacy may serve the world well here as stability becomes questionable from Europe, through the Middle East towards much of Asia. A perfect storm of negligent policy decisions has lead to tragedy, applying further such policy decisions to quell the first fire will make it much worse. What is a universal truth in 2022 is that voting matters, as these issues will certainly affect your daily life to some degree.

Shireen Abu Akleh, a well-regarded Palestinian journalist, has become the next martyr in the Israel-Palestine Conflict. On May 11, she stood with her colleagues in the occupied West Bank. While wearing her blue press vest, which discerned her from combatants, Abu Akleh was struck in the head by unexpected gunfire.

Unsurprisingly, both sides of the conflict have spun clashing narratives following her death. Israel claims she got caught in crossfire initiated by Palestinian fighters. Palestinians claim Israel Defense Forces murdered Abu Akleh.  Accounts from eyewitnesses at the scene, as well as video footage, seem to support the latter. According to multiple sources, no Palestinian fighters were present at the time of her death. Satha Hanaysha, a journalist working alongside Abu Akleh, told CNN that IDF targeted the group intentionally. According to Hanaysha, the press followed regular protocol on the morning of the attack. This protocol consists of making themselves known to Israeli forces before approaching a scene. Despite identifying themselves at the entrance to Jenin Refugee Camp, the group of journalists were greeted by gunfire. An independent Dutch organization found that Israeli forces likely fired the bullet that killed Abu Akleh.

The United States has forged a strong relationship with Israel over the last fifty years. U.S. leaders have continually hailed Israel as a “vibrant democracy” and “one of the most successful democracies in the world.” These words ignore Israel’s long history of violence. The unjust killing of Shireen Abu Akleh has reminded us of the fragility of Israel’s “moral character.” She is sadly yet another in a long line of tragedies brought on by Israel’s poor human rights record. In 2021, Palestinian journalist Yusef Abu Hussein died in an Israeli air raid. He worked as a broadcaster for the Voice of al-Aqsa radio station. Al-Jazeera reported that his home was intentionally targeted. In 2018, Israeli forces shot Palestinian journalist Ahmed Abu Hussein while he covered protests in Gaza. Like Shireen Abu Akleh, he adorned his blue press vest when he died. These stories are not isolated events – Israeli forces have killed at least 45 journalists since 2000.

Israel has contended with its own violence by leading self-investigations. It is not difficult to imagine why an accused party cannot credibly lead their own investigation. However, Israel has done so for years. In 2018, Israeli police reacted violently to Palestinian protests in the Gaza Strip. They opened fire on hundreds of unarmed civilians, killing over two hundred Palestinians. The international community demanded Israel allow an investigation of the mass casualties. Israeli leaders obliged; they opened an investigation on their own military. The investigation indicted one Israeli soldier for the murder of a 14-year-old Palestinian. The other 214 victims received no justice.

In 2021, the International Criminal Court launched an investigation into the events of 2018. Israel refused to cooperate, instead firing claims of anti-Semitism. Bringing justice to victims of state-sponsored violence is not anti-Semitic. Rather, it contributes to the creation of a safer environment for those on both sides. Israel cannot be a contributing member of the international community if it continues to oppose international bodies. The United Nations, for example, has attempted to launch multiple probes into alleged Israeli crimes. Israel repeatedly refuses to cooperate. This only prevents transparent investigations and aggravates the conflict.

Israel claims it possesses the ability to conduct its own investigations – if this is true, it should have no problem allowing an international body to oversee. If Israel can address these incidents with full transparency, perhaps it can move one step closer to ending the violence. As for the United States, President Biden should advocate for a U.S.-led investigation into Abu Akleh’s death. If the United States wants to continue to support human rights across the world, it cannot turn a convenient blind eye to Israel.

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is hoping her party will claim the most seats in the assembly election

In mid-May the Irish political party, Sinn Féin, won the plurality of seats in the Northern Ireland Assembly. Many American readers might not fully understand the significance of Sinn Féin’s political victory- but rest assured that subjects of the United Kingdom and a wide range of political movements the world over have heard the message loud and clear.

For those unaware of Sinn Féin’s origins, a bit of history is necessary. 

The early years of the 1900’s saw the planting of many of the most important seeds that would grow to shape the politics of the coming century- perhaps the most important of these is the idea of national self-determination. The concept of national self-determination is straightforward – it is the idea that groups of people who view themselves as a distinct nation have the right to create government institutions that materialize their shared belief. This view was espoused by political figures as varied as American President Woodrow Wilson and Soviet Premier Vladmir Lenin at the time, and the principle of national self-determination remains enshrined in the UN charter today.        

Inspired by this political philosophy and justified by a history of imperial repression, men and women throughout Ireland came together to forge a band that would pursue, and if necessary fight for, a nation made up of the whole of Ireland that would be fully independent from Britain rule. That movement, over the years that followed, materialized into two nominally distinct but regularly overlapping efforts. The more internationally famous of these two groups is the Irish Republican Army (IRA) which participated in a gorilla conflict against the British military with the goal of making “crown rule” in Ireland ineffective. The second group to emerge from this turmoil was the political party known as Sinn Féin. While Sinn Féin shared many of the IRA’s political objectives, Sinn Féin differentiated itself from the IRA by focusing its efforts on the political liberation of Ireland without employing military force.

It must be said that while the IRA and Sinn Féin were founded as separate institutions, the two groups have generally worked together as if they were a common body. Many of the most prominent Sinn Féin representatives, including Gerry Adams who was Sinn Féin’s President from 1983 to 2018, were allegedly members of the IRA before making a transition into political life. This collaboration was given its rhetorical foundation through IRA volunteer and Sinn Féin Public Director Danny Morrison’s infamous 1981 proclamation that both the “Armalite rifle and the ballot box” would prove necessary in securing full Irish independence. English politicians used this overlap in order to discredit Sinn Féin’s efforts to earn political legitimacy, going so far as to bar Sinn Féin members from appearing in media throughout the British Empire despite Sinn Féin’s grounding as an entirely legal political organization. 

The point of my writing here is not to provide a historical overview of the conflict between Ireland and England- others have covered this topic with more nuance than I could hope to achieve here. Instead, for our purposes, it should suffice to say that the IRA took up arms, and occasionally employed terror tatics, in an attempt to resist the British government’s wrongful killing of Irish citizens, unjust interference with Irish politics, and refusal to allow for Irish territorial sovreignty. This conflict reached its apex beginning in the late 1960’s and raged consistently through 1998 during a period commonly known as The Struggles. 

During this time, the IRA’s militant approach figured more prominently than Sinn Féin’s political efforts in the quest for full Irish independence- the rifle took precedence over the ballot box. Ultimately, despite earning meaningful concessions, the IRA failed to achieve its objective of Irish unification as Northern Ireland was to remain part of the British Empire following the Good Friday Agreement, which formally ended the armed conflict between British forces and Irish republicans. 

While the Good Friday Agreement put a stop to the IRA’s military activism, Sinn Féin’s work at winning the ballot box was in truth just beginning. In the roughly twenty-five years that have passed since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, Sinn Féin took up the work of proving themselves a legitimate political party both in Ireland proper and in the disputed territory of Northern Ireland. Ultimately, this entailed maintaining the fervor that comes with being the IRA’s political successor while generating sufficient distance from the IRA’s violent heritage. In doing so, Sinn Féin abandoned the rifle in favor of full dedication to the ballot. Following the aforementioned election results in Northern Ireland, there is reason to believe that these efforts are beginning to bear fruit. 

Sinn Féin’s electoral victory in Northern Ireland may prove a necessary condition in order for Irish unification to be achieved, but it is not sufficient in and of itself. Sinn Féin will now need to take on the challenge of directing its newfound political power towards actually achieving the desired policy results. 

In either event, the rise of Sinn Féin as a peaceful stand-in for the political ambition of the IRA is a win for the Irish, the British, and the entire peace loving world. Should Irish unification be achieved, one would hope that it would be through exclusively political means.

A similar line should be taken as it applies to other militant groups the world over. According to a study conducted by Rand, more modern militant conflicts are resolved through political integration than by any other means. Notably, the second largest set of conflicts in this study have not truly ended but instead are managed only through sustained efforts at policing militant organizations. 

The challenge of allowing militant groups to participate in the political process is obvious – it means overcoming long standing hostilities and ceding credibility to groups that were once restricted to the fringes. More directly- it means extending sympathy to people who have proven themselves “our” enemy. I contend that the price of integration at the ballot box is far cheaper than the loss of human lives through the rifle.

Kurds, Palestinians, and other subjugated people around the world see their political rights repressed by their imperial holders. Without the opportunity to meaningfully participate in local politics, these groups might feel that violence is the only way to guarantee a seat for themselves at the decision making table. 

Political inclusion is preferable to political violence- the American genesis reaffirms this fact. Repressed people in all corners of the world will continue their struggle for honest representation and national sovereignty- through the ballot box or, if political participation is barred, through the Armalite. 

–

Peter Scaturro is the Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association. The opinions expressed here are his, and not necessarily the opinions of the Foreign Policy Association.

NATO, Swedish and Finnish flags are seen in this illustration taken May 12, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The unexpected assault by Russia on Ukraine adjusted the view most Western Europeans had overnight of a peaceful Europe. At the same time, Central and Eastern Europe’s weariness of Russian Realpolitik since the fall of the Cold War was legitimised. Much of their relatively new NATO based equipment and Warsaw Pact updated equipment was put on high alert since Feb of 2022 as Poland and their neighbours feared a repeat of history defending a mass invasion from the East. Germany’s energy policy and military policy changed almost completely, and former neutral countries who would have never considered joining NATO even as late as last year, are now poised to become significant new members.

While NATO members in North America dither on whether or not to provide an appropriate energy solution to Europe during an active conflict that depends on that policy, European powers that are currently not part of NATO have broken with their official traditional neutrality.

Finland stood as one of the only nations to successfully repel an attack by the Soviet Union in the 1930s and held a position of neutrality since the end of the Second World War. Neutrality in Finland’s case was committed to in order not to illicit a response from their Eastern border with Russia. The avoidance of conflict kept Finland in relations with their Scandinavian allies, with a strong Navy and technical and political support from their Western neighbours without being a NATO member. At the same time, Finland kept lines of communications open with their Eastern neighbours, even purchasing Soviet and Russian military equipment from them for Finland’s own defense. Finland’s border with neutral Sweden likely accommodated this political approach as well.

Sweden’s approach since the end of the Second World War was to build a strong local defensive structure in order to repel any attack coming from the Soviet Union. While NATO produced a combined arms approach, countries like France and Sweden took to building on their own defense industry focused on their own territory and geographical challenges. Sweden often designed defense equipment suited for a war in Sweden, with tanks designed to hide and hit invading Russian tanks in the Swedish forests, and planes designed to land and take of from highways and local roads. The contribution of Swedish anti-tank weapons to Ukraine are a reflection of generations of weapons designed to blunt a Russian invasion force.

The strengthening of NATO is surprising as since the end of the Cold War, decades of peace turned NATO into an organisation that was a reminder of a past long gone. The invasion of Ukraine was a result of policy errors and egos that could likely have been avoided or managed, with a wake up call that has not sounded for a generation. The study of European defense during my education was seen as an empty field, as trade agreements and post-Soviet reconstruction dominated International Studies discussions at that time. The result of bad policy may have come from the limited number of experts making decisions that created the possibility of conflict in Europe. Right now, those who have spent time vacationing in Kyiv and Moscow, married people from both regions and have family who speak those languages are still shocked by their peaceful lives turning into the hard times endured by their grandparents.

It will likely be the case that poor decisions during the current conflict in Europe will result in increased conflict in other parts of the world. Bad policy decisions have hard consequences, something our grandparents learned in the most difficult of ways.

A supporter of presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. holds up a newspaper with the winning of Marcos Jr. on the headline, as people gather to celebrate as partial results of the 2022 national elections show him with a wide lead over rivals, at the candidate’s headquarters in Mandaluyong City, Philippines, May 10, 2022. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

On Monday, May 9th, the Philippines held a presidential election to replace President Rodrigo Duterte. Critics characterize Duterte’s presidency as ruthless and authoritarian, moving the Philippines away from a democratic culture. Duterte gained a legacy for using brutal tactics in his approach to countering crime. His violent war on drugs resulted in tens of thousands of killings by state security forces, leading to an investigation by the International Criminal Court. His foreign policy focused on building stronger relationships with Russia and China, while drifting further away from a strong relationship with the United States. Duterte’s decision to retire from politics left a vacuum in Filipino politics. In the May 2022 elections, two candidates became the frontrunners to replace him: Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and former Vice President Leni Robredo. The two ran on opposing platforms. While Robredo promised accountable and transparent governance, Marcos Jr. built his campaign around the legacy of his father. Ferdinand Marcos Senior ruled the Philippines as a dictator for over 20 years, until a revolution ousted him in 1986. Marcos Sr.’s dictatorship marked one of the darkest periods in the Philippine’s history. It was marred by extrajudicial killings, tortures, forced disappearances, corruption, and economic turmoil. Marcos Jr. has utilized his campaign platform to rewrite that history, framing his father’s time in office as a “golden era” for his country. Marcos Jr. claimed a victory on May 9th, winning the election in a landslide. With the Philippines back in the hands of the Marcos family, the Biden Administration should beware of implications this election may have on U.S.-Philippine relations. The troubled history between the United States and the Marcos family may impact the Philippines’ foreign policy decisions. In a country caught between China and the West, the Marcos administration could facilitate the slow decay of democracy.

The relationship between the United States and the Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos Senior ended tumultuously. In the early days of Marcos’ presidency, he took a strong anti-communist stance that appealed to the Reagan administration. The two countries forged positive diplomatic relations. However, as his presidency evolved into a dictatorship, Marcos moved away from the United States. In 1975, his administration oversaw the establishment of diplomatic relations with China. Given Marcos’ shift in foreign policy, and mounting accusations of human rights violations, the United States began to rethink its initial support for Marcos. In 1985, the Reagan Administration took an “open view” about the removal of Marcos Senior from power. A year later, President Reagan reached out to Marcos and personally asked him to step down. It was under this increasing internal and international pressure that Marcos abandoned his post. The United States played a critical role in removing Marcos, which complicated the relationship between his family and the United States. This complicated relationship could be worrisome for today’s administration, as ill feelings may plague Marcos Jr.’s foreign policy. Even more pressing is the outstanding court order from the United States calling the Marcos family to pay millions of dollars in damages to the victims of human rights abuses

In 1995, a court case implicated the Marcos family in a series of human rights violations from the 1970s and 1980s. The U.S. 9th Circuit of Court Appeals affirmed a 1996 verdict labeling Ferdinand Marcos Senior “command responsibility” for the human rights abuses committed under his leadership.[1] The court called for a $2 billion payment from the Marcos family. However, it has been a decades-long struggle to collect that compensation. In 2012, a court upheld a contempt judgement against Marcos Jr. and his mother for failing to provide the compensation ordered in the 1996 verdict. The Marcos family continues to evade payment, despite the existing court order that has been extended until 2031. The outstanding order complicates the new administration’s ability to visit the United States on any official diplomatic business. Unless Marcos Jr. visits as part of a UN-sponsored event, or gains special permission from the United States court system, he runs the risk of being subpoenaed to face the court.

The strenuous circumstances surrounding the Marcos family’s relationship to the United States increases the motivation for Marcos Jr. to turn towards China. Despite disagreements over the South China Sea, Marcos Jr. recently called for shifting the Philippines’ relationship with China “to a higher gear.”[2] He has made promises to strengthen trade and diplomatic ties, as well as increase educational and cultural exchange. A new Philippines under the leadership of Marcos Jr. brings with it new fears. His father’s troubled humanitarian record, his family’s evasion of court orders, and his positioning towards Beijing have all raised concerns that he may bring in an era of democratic backsliding. For the United States, Biden will have to address the legal issues surrounding diplomatic relations with the Marcos family. The outstanding court order should not be abandoned in light of Marcos Jr.’s election; this is a crucial moment for the United States to maintain its commitment to human rights and to democracy worldwide. However, the Biden Administration’s approach to the Philippines will need to deeply consider how to engage with such a complicated figure.

 

Julia Sackett is an intern at the Foreign Policy Association and a ForeignPolicyBlogs contributor.

 

[1] https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1996-12-18-mn-10301-story.html

[2] https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Philippine-elections/Marcos-says-Philippine-China-ties-set-to-shift-to-higher-gear

Recently, I visited Shusha in the war-torn Karabakh region in order to partake in the International Food Festival that was hosted in Azerbaijan’s cultural capital city. After visiting the area last summer together with Ayoob Kara, who served as Israel’s Communication, Cyber and Satellite Minister under Netanyahu, I was pleasantly surprised to discover how much the area has improved over the past year.

For starters, there are now proper roads where one can travel from Baku to Shusha.  These roads did not exist last summer.  When I visited the area last summer, we had to travel on landmine-infested dirt roads, with multiple potholes in them. As a result, we had to zigzag as we drove and we saw many cars that broke down along the way due to these conditions. We ourselves got into a bus accident and were stranded for several hours in a landmine-infested area, till we were rescued by the Azerbaijani government and military.

But now, thanks to the better roads, what was an eight-hour journey became a five-to-six-hour journey from Baku to Shusha. On top of that, the area along the way has significantly improved.  For starters, the Azerbaijanis have rebuilt the city of Fizouli, which was nothing but a ghost town last year. This means that one can stop and eat in a café or go to get gasoline in Fizouli along the road between Shusha and Baku.  

Thus, instead of having our meal along the way on an Azerbaijani military base, we were able to dine in a nice Azerbaijani tea house. For me, this was a major development, as I keep kosher.  On my last visit, I literally starved on the journey, as the military base and convoy of Russian journalists lacked vegetarian options. So, I barely ate till we reached Shusha. But at the Azerbaijani tea house, I found myself in a more vegetarian friendly atmosphere.      

On top of that, all of the fires that were still raging last summer have been put out. Furthermore, the nature is beginning to recover from the fact that the area was left on fire, with uprooted trees, destroyed homes and burnt agricultural fields.  Now, one can see greenery and flowers along the road to Shusha, even though one can see that many homes still remain in ruins. 

Upon entering the city, we had to pass through a checkpoint manned by Russian peace-keepers. That did not exist last year. But upon entering the city, we were surprised to discover that we would be staying in the five-star Karabakh Hotel, which had a lovely gift shop that sold souvenirs connected with the historic city of Shusha, instead of a run-down leftover Armenian hotel, which lacked electricity in our rooms.

While staying at the Karabakh Hotel, we were able to attend concerts, puppet shows and other performances at the International Food Festival in Azerbaijan’s cultural capital city.  Foods from various regions of Azerbaijan were represented, as were a number of countries including Israel, Turkey, Georgia, China, Japan, France, Italy, Malaysia, etc. I was even able to purchase wine, cookbooks and other trinkets at the festival, in addition to meeting people from various parts of the world.

Last summer, they were putting the final touches on the Shusha Fort, but now it is open to the public and even has a market selling kebabs to Azerbaijani soldiers. That did not exist last summer. They also renovated a number of other buildings.  For example, the local elementary school is now totally renovated and I saw them putting the final touches upon a number of mosques.   With one exception, all of the mosques in Shusha last summer lay in ruins. Thus, after visiting Shusha, I am hopeful that within five years, the area can begin to flourish once again as Azerbaijan’s cultural capital city.     

In recent days, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sent a congratulatory letter to Israel’s President Isaac Herzog ahead of Israeli Independence Day.  In the letter, he said: “On the occasion of the National Day of the State of Israel, I extend congratulations to Your Excellency and the people of Israel on behalf of my nation and myself.”

“In the new period in our relations, heralded by Your Excellency’s visit to our country in March, I sincerely believe that the cooperation between our countries will develop in a way that serves our mutual national interests, as well as regional peace and stability,” he added.  Erdogan also extended his wishes “for the health and happiness of Your Excellency, and for the well-being and prosperity of the people of Israel.”  This was the third time in recent weeks that Herzog and Erdogan spoke over the phone.  The question remains, what role did Azerbaijan play in improving Turkish-Israeli relations?  

Lev Spivak, head of the Aziz organization, believes that Azerbaijan played a major role in this: “If you pay attention, when Herzog was in Turkey and spoke with Erdogan, Aliyev was also there.  They also wrote in the media that he was there, but did not say anything.  I think that Azerbaijan does everything to improve the relationship between Israel and Turkey because it is also good for Azerbaijan.”

According to him, “I believe that the gas between Israel and Europe should also include Turkey and Azerbaijan.  That is the basis of the reconciliation.   I think that Israel and Turkey can return to having good relations.  It will take some time.  But the mess between the two is only political.  The economic and trade relations are good.   Everything is fine except in the political arena.  Thus, it will be very easy for things to return to being good.”

Rabbi Shmuel Simantov concurred: “First of all, the president of Azerbaijan and the president of Turkey are close friends, like brothers.  Thus, Azerbaijan can help a lot.   Aside from that, there are many other things that can be utilized to improve the relationship.   The Turks and Azeris view the Jews to be loyal people.   Anti-Semitism is not a part of the culture.   That is why it is easy for Israel to make peace with Turkey.   The Diaspora of Turks and the Azerbaijan Diaspora influence each other all over the world.”

Turkish journalist Rafael Sadi added: “Good relations are a positive thing and there must be good relations with everybody.   Now, it sounds like a dream but if we do not dream, we will never progress.   Also Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. had a dream.   For this to be realized, first Israel and Turkey must normalize the relationship and exchange ambassadors.  Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is expected to visit on the 24th of this month in Israel.  From there, we will see if the relationship is moving in the right direction.”

Zali De Toledo, who served as Israel’s Cultural Attaché in Turkey and used to chair the Association of Turkish Jews in Israel, emphasized: “Azerbaijan is a sister country of Turkey because of the language and religion.   There is a 20,000 strong Jewish community in Azerbaijan living in peace.   We also have a good relationship with Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan can improve the relationship between Turkey and Israel.  Improved relations are long overdue.”  Nevertheless, she noted that Turkey will have elections in 2023 and this could influence Turkish-Israeli reconciliation: “We don’t know what will happen in the 2023 elections.”       

From the end of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth to their status during the Napoleonic Wars and Interwar period, Poland has always tried to achieve their own true independence. The post Soviet era gave rebirth to Poland as an independently governed nation state, separate from the direct influence of empires of the past like the Austro-Hungarians and Soviets, and persistent powers like Germany and Russia.

While freedom did come with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the position of Poland between two European powers meant that it had to always survive strategically, knowing that its borders will be challenged perpetually. This focus on tactical survival also gave rise to creative solutions in challenging great power struggles, with some notable successes that have influenced the rest of Europe and the world.

No one would doubt the great humanitarian relief effort Poland has engaged in helping their neighbours in Ukraine. Polish sympathies lay in the knowledge of their own history and risks to their nation. Ukraine has been affected recently by Putin’s Russia as Poland had been in the past, by both German and Russian invasions alike. Poland knows that much of the catalyst for this current conflict comes from their position in Europe and the world as well as a history of Realpolitik that has targeted Poland, and now Ukraine.

A struggle can be won in the long term through soft power, as much as it can be with tanks and artillery. Pope John Paul II was respected and loved by Catholics and non-Catholics alike through his peace initiatives in the 1980s and support for Polish freedom and a life outside of Communism. His movement encouraging his native Poland and Eastern Europeans to push away from communist values helped greatly in the peaceful protest against Soviet control in the region.

The Solidarnosc Movement in the early 80s helped tremendously in the defeat of Communist in Poland and Europe, but was the culmination of years of grass roots activism. The gradual gaining of support of workers unions due to higher living costs and food prices established the Solidarity Movement, one of the largest political challenges to Moscow in the last years of the Soviet Union. This workers movement against Communism lead to the leader of the movement, Lech Walesa, and the Solidarity Party to lead Poland out of the Soviet era and helped put Poland in line for EU membership.

Poland knows what can come from threats to their borders and that their borders have not always been where they now stand. Much of the humanitarian relief at the Polish border is connected to cities like Lviv that used to itself be a part of Poland before it was annexed by the Soviets. Along with humanitarian aid that has stressed the capabilities for assistance for Poland and its people, military aid from Poland’s older Soviet era military stocks have been dedicated to Ukraine’s War effort. Despite some hiccups in the past in rearming its defense capabilities, Poland is now due to receive US made M1 Abrams tanks to displace its T-72 types donated to Ukraine, along with the more modern anti-missile versions of the Patriot PAC-3 missile systems. Poland will most likely have its military rearmed and upgraded while giving its current inventory to Ukraine. This will result in one of the most powerful and modern militaries in Europe.

Turning Poland into a defensive fortress and protected humanitarian settlement while supporting Ukrainian fighters shows that Poland likely understand more than any other nation the suffering at the hands of a foreign power in Europe. This achievement may look short term, but it is the result of generations of Polish leaders and citizens working to keep Poland free from influence and enshrine its place in Europe and the world.