Diplomacy & Crisis News

Le numéro d’été 2015 de Politique étrangère, consacré à la Russie, vient de paraître !

Comprendre la Russie d’aujourd’hui, c’est savoir qu’elle se définit d’abord dans l’action extérieure – ce qui peut être dangereux. Qu’elle a les moyens d’agir – énergie, armes… –, mais que ces moyens sont limités. Qu’elle connaît des difficultés économiques bien antérieures aux sanctions, que le régime se refuse à traiter… économiquement. Et que le raidissement du régime poutinien ne saurait garantir sa propre durée.

C’est autour de ces éléments de réflexion que s’organise le dossier de ce numéro de Politique étrangère, éléments fondamentaux pour identifier la nature même d’une Russie qui n’est ni le grand méchant loup, ni la douloureuse incomprise qu’on nous décrit ici ou là.

Cette livraison de Politique étrangère s’attache également aux chances de succès de la prochaine COP 21, ainsi qu’aux multiples abcès d’un Sud en feu : Syrie, Irak, Soudan du Sud, Nigeria – toutes géographies où c’est l’idée même d’État, au sens de la pensée occidentale, qui semble remise en cause.

Téléchargez le sommaire ici.

Téléchargez le dossier de presse ici.

Achetez le numéro 2/2015 de Politique étrangère ici.

Abonnez-vous à Politique étrangère ici.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter arrives at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Shangri-la Dialogue, or IISS, for the 14th Asia Security Summit, Friday, May 29, 2015, in Singapore. TPhoto: Wong Maye-E, AP

On Saturday in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter addressed the attendants at the 14th Shangri-La Dialogue, a high-level security forum, asserting China’s recent land reclamation in the South China Sea was “out of step” with international norms, and adding his opposition to “any further militarization” in the region. As a high-level Chinese military delegation looked on uncomfortably, Carter asked for “a peaceful resolution of all disputes” and called for  “an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by all claimants.”

But before the Chinese delegation got too uncomfortable in their seats, he acknowledged the actions of the other claimants who have been busy constructing their own outposts in the South China Sea. (Vietnam currently has 48, the Philippines eight, Malaysia five and Taiwan one.) Despite their activity, Carter pointed out the Chinese have far exceeded the others in pace and scale, having reclaimed over 2,000 acres on five outposts within the last 18 months — more than all of the other claimants combined have done in their history.

The Chinese reaction to Carter’s speech was quick and pointed, with one Chinese military official saying his comments were “groundless and not constructive.” Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo of the Chinese Academy of Military Science added further, “Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea is not at all an issue because the freedom has never been affected.”

Colonel Zhao’s remarks are disingenuous, given freedom of navigation should include the right of foreign militaries to fly their aircraft over the South China Sea. Last week, the Chinese military ordered a U.S. Navy P-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft to “go now”— an obvious attempt by Beijing to impede freedom of navigation in the skies over the South China Sea.

Freedom of navigation should also include the right of Vietnamese fishermen to fish in traditional fishing grounds. Last month’s declaration of the municipal administration of Haikou in Hainan, China’s southernmost province, of an annual fishing ban would appear to hinder the freedom of navigation for Vietnamese fishermen. The affected area encompasses the Gulf of Tonkin, the Paracels island chain which China took from Vietnam in 1974, and the Scarborough Shoal, a disputed reef in the Spratly Islands China seized from the Philippines in 2012.

Colonel Zhao went even further, adding, “It is wrong to criticize China for affecting peace and stability through construction activities.”

Yet, his comments followed reports confirmed by the Pentagon that China had placed mobile artillery on one of its reclaimed islands in the South China Sea, causing John McCain, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Armed Service Committee to call the action “disturbing and escalatory.” While the deployment of artillery is largely symbolic, given the Chinese navy’s more formidable presence in the waters (and all regional claimants except Brunei have military fortifications in the Spratly island chain), the move has focused international attention on Beijing’s motives in the region and precipitated the call for a halt to all militarization of the islands of the South China Sea.

Beijing’s escalation of land reclamation efforts on islands it controls, and the denial of actions taken to limit freedom of navigation have only motivated Southeast Asian nations with claims in the South China Sea to undertake joint military preparations while building up their own militaries and drawing military assistance from actors outside the region, such as the U.S. and Russia.

On Sunday, Carter visited the Vietnamese navy and coast guard and pledged $18 million toward the purchase of U.S. patrol boats. McCain had earlier proposed an amendment to the 2016 U.S. Defense Authorization Act entitled the East Sea Initiative. Under the amendment, the U.S. would provide assistance in training and equipping the armed forces of Southeast Asian countries in order to deal with territorial challenges.

What many of the delegates of the Shangri-La forum called for was immediate action by China and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations to agree on and adopt a “code of conduct” governing the disputed waters. Yet as Chinese dredgers are hard at work reclaiming land and increasing China’s de facto control, there is little incentive for Beijing to sign such a document.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is unlikely to remove its “pivot to Asia” anytime soon, and any further restriction on the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea by Beijing will likely be met with a challenge from Washington, as Defense Secretary Carter foreshadowed in his comments to the Shangri-La delegates, “Turning an underwater rock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty or permit restrictions on international air or maritime transit….There should be no mistake: the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as US forces do all around the world.”

Expect more turbulence in these waters in the coming months.

La stagnation économique de l'Union et son absence de vision diplomatique indépendante ne désarment pas les fédéralistes européens. Au contraire : moins leur projet rencontre l'assentiment populaire, plus ils s'acharnent à le faire avancer, subrepticement mais à marche forcée. / Europe, Économie, (...) / Europe, Économie, Monnaie, Politique, Groupe de pression, Fédéralisme - 2014/09

Loin de la guerre contre l’organisation de l’État islamique (EI), un autre conflit se joue au sein de la société kurde d’Irak. Cette dernière est divisée par une ligne générationnelle tracée par l’histoire du Kurdistan : alors que les plus de cinquante ans ont assisté à la création progressive d’une région autonome ou ont fait leurs armes dans la résistance contre le régime de Saddam Hussein (1979-2003), la majorité des jeunes nés dans les années 1990 a grandi, s’éduque et travaille au sein d’un Kurdistan déjà semi-souverain. Ils ne connaissent qu’une réalité structurée par leurs parents et coupée de l’extérieur, notamment du reste de l’Irak.

Heavy fighting in South Sudan’s Unity and Upper Nile states over the last two months has displaced more than 100,000 people and blocked humanitarian aid deliveries for some 650,000 people as aid organizations have been forced to withdraw, a representative for the United Nations refugee agency has confirmed today.

Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has a plan to kickstart the stalled peace process. Can he broker a deal before famine strikes the world’s newest nation?

Is the violent extremism that's fueling the Islamic State something new?

The United Nations refugee agency, which has launched a campaign, #IBelong, to end the suffering of some 10 million stateless people across the world by the year 2024, said today that addressing the plight for 600,000 people at the margins of society in Europe “is doable” in that timeframe.

The Obama administration is seen as no great friend of Bibi's government. But behind the scenes at the U.N., the United States is working hard to protect it.

While some progress has been made since the first study four years ago spotlighting discrimination and violence against people based on their sexual orientation and gender identity, the overall picture remains one of pervasive, violent abuse, harassment and discrimination affecting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBT/I) persons in all regions, according to a new United Nations report issued today.

The new head of the United Nations relief arm today released a fresh tranche of crisis funding from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) in order to support life-saving relief work for thousands of Burundian refugees dispersed between Rwanda and Tanzania, the Organization has announced.

Amid the escalating tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines is growing increasingly desperate for more U.S. military support.

Not every Westerner who comes home after joining the Islamic State is a threat. But whether they ultimately live a life of peace or violence can be shaped by what they find when they get back.

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today condemned the Government of South Sudan's decision to expel his Deputy Special Representative and the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in the country, Toby Lanzer.

The United States continues to dominate the global market for small arms.

A conversation with Jeffrey Goldberg on why he thinks “the most Jewish president we’ve ever had” is having such a tough time in the Middle East.

(Own report) - In its search for alternatives to Russian oil and gas supplies, Germany has entered an "energy partnership" with Algeria. Until now, Germany has hardly tapped that country's resources, which have great potential. Algeria is the world's sixth largest natural gas exporter and a significant oil producer. The development of new sources is urgent. In light of the West's policy of escalation in regards to Moscow, Germany would like to become less dependent on Russian energy resources. At the same time, the Libyan civil war threatens to cut off completely one of Germany's most important sources of oil. Because of the nuclear dispute with Iran, oil and gas imports from that country are not yet feasible. The West's aggressions and their repercussions are making energy procurement increasingly difficult. The new energy partnership with Algeria, which should help relieve this bottleneck, also offers the beleaguered German solar energy sector the possibility to gain ground on their Chinese rivals. German mechanical engineering and construction can expect supplementary profits.

At least 1,031 Iraqis were killed in May 2015 and another 1,684 injured in acts of terrorism, violence and armed conflict, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI), which said the actions of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIL) were to blame for the growing number of casualties.

Rand Paul managed to temporarily derail an NSA surveillance program. But it will live to spy another day, and Paul's maneuvering could cost him as he embarks on a 2016 presidential run.

In one of the hottest cities in India, residents blame overcrowding, rapid urbanization, and pollution for record-breaking temperatures.