Defence`s Feeds

The Uruguay Defence Ministry recently approved several acquisitions and transfers to reinforce and recover at least some of the degraded capabilities of the country’s navy, focusing mostly on aerial search, rescue, and general patrol missions. The Navy Aviation branch will be reinforced with

The US Coast Guard (USCG) is holding off on commitment to a specific plan to deploy National Security Cutters to the Western Pacific as the new USCG and regional US commanders discuss the best way to employ naval resources to the region. Admiral Karl Schultz, the USCG commandant, and Admiral Philip

Take a look at these amazing clips filmed at 120 frames per second. On Jul. 31, the first prototype of the V-280 Valor, registration N280BH, performed a flight demo for invited media and dignitariest at Bell Helicopter Amarillo Assembly Center. The V-280 Valor is Bell’s submission for the U.S. Army’s Joint Multi-Role Technology Demonstrator (JMR-TD) […]

Americas

• L-3 Chesapeake Sciences Corp. is being tapped to provide the Navy’s submarine fleet with passive sonar equipment. The awarded contract modification has a value of $27.5 million and provides for the production of TB-29X towed arrays. The TB-29X is a thin line towed array passive sonar receiver installed aboard Navy submarines. The TB-29X array is in the same form factor as the TB-29 array; however, it offers increased capability, greater reliability and reduced obsolescence. These arrays can be used for back-fit on Los Angeles (SSN-688 and SSN-688I) submarines and forward-fit on the Virginia (SSN-774) class. Passive sonar is a method for detecting acoustic signals in an underwater environment, usually the ocean. The difference between passive and active sonar is that a passive sonar system emits no signals; instead, its purpose is to detect the acoustic signals emanating from external sources, such as enemy submarines and surface vessels. Work will be performed at multiple locations inside the US, including Liverpool, New York; Millersville, Maryland and Ashaway, Rhode Island. Work is scheduled for completion by November 2019.

• The Navy is contracting General Electric to provide its fleet of Super Hornets and Growlers with more thrust. The awarded firm-fixed-price-advance acquisition contract provides for the full-rate production of Lot 23 F414-GE-400 engines at a cost of $10.5 million. The F414-GE-400 is a 22,000-pound class afterburning turbofan engine. The engine features an axial compressor with 3 fan stages and 7 high-pressure compressor stages, and 1 high-pressure and 1 low-pressure turbine stage. At a weight of 2,445 pounds, the F414-GE-400 has a thrust-to-weight ratio of 9. The F414 delivers 35% more thrust than the original F404, which significantly improves the range, payload and survivability of the Super Hornet and Growler. Work will be performed in Lynn, Massachusetts, and is expected to be completed in December 2019.

• The shipbuilding firms tasked with delivery of conceptual designs for the US Navy’s future FFG(X) frigate are all being awarded with firm-fixed-price modifications to exercise further options for the Guided Missile Frigate Conceptual Design. Huntington Ingalls is receiving an additional $7.99 million, General Dynamics Bath Iron Works an additional $7.95 million, Fincantieri Marinette Marine $7.98 million, Lockheed Martin $6.97 million, and Austal is receiving a further $6.39 million. This modification is for additional Guided Missile Frigate Conceptual Design efforts. Huntington Ingalls will be maturing their proposed ship design, which is based on the National Security Cutter, to meet the FFG(X) System Specification. Work will be performed in Pascagoula, Mississippi and Ocean Springs, Mississippi and is expected to be completed by June 2019.

• The US Army is procuring a number of holsters for its new M17 and M18 pistols. Atlantic Diving Supply will provide the Army with Modular Handgun Holsters under this $49 million firm-fixed-price contract. Fielding of the M17 and M18 Modular Handgun System (MHS) started in November 2017. The M17 is a variant of SIG Sauer’s P320 handgun, while the M18 is a compact version of the M17. According to the Army, the MHS program is the first in a line of modernization efforts that the service will pursue over the next few years. The new handguns also have an external safety, self-illuminating sights for low-light conditions, an integrated rail for attaching enablers and an Army standard suppressor conversion kit to attach an acoustic/flash suppressor. Work locations and funding will be determined with each order, with an estimated completion expected by July 29, 2023.

Middle East & Africa

• The government of Kuwait is set to receive counter-measure equipment for its fleet of Super Hornets as part of a US foreign military sale. Raytheon will procure a total of 38 Integrated Multi-Platform Launch Controllers (IMPLCs) at a cost of $34.6 million. The ALE-50(V) consists of a launcher and launch controller attached to one of the aircraft’s weapon pylons, containing one or more expendable towed decoys. These trail behind the aircraft when deployed, attracting radar-guided missiles to themselves instead. Each decoy and payout reel is delivered in a sealed canister, and has a 10-year shelf life. The IMPLC is the standard launch controller for all future installations. It’s a component of the AN/ALE-50(V) countermeasures decoy dispensing set, and the IDECM integrated defensive electronics countermeasure system. In addition, this contract provides for the induction and repair of IMPLC assets, in support of the US Navy. Work will be performed at multiple locations, including Goleta, California; Forest, Mississippi and Andover, Massachusetts. This contract combines purchase for the Navy ($2,5 million) and FMS to Kuwait ($32 million). Work is expected to be completed in March 2021.

Europe

• The Swiss Army is reportedly introducing a modernized version of its Duro 4×4 tactical vehicle. Duro is a high-mobility military tactical vehicle initially developed by Bucher-Guyer in the mid-90s. vehicles are available in 4×4 and 6×6 configurations and are built with both protected armor and non-armor, and with overall weights ranging from 7t to 25t. The vehicle designed as a modular vehicle that could be easily fitted with interchangeable bodies, including fully-enclosed bodies and various shelters. The Duro can be equipped with a variety of self-defense measures ranging from 7.62 mm machine gun to 40mm grenade launchers. Switzerland is currently in the process of upgrading some of its 3000 Duro vehicles which it received between 1994 and 2002. General Dynamics European Land Systems will modernize about 2200 of those vehicles through the second quarter of 2022.

• The German Luftwaffe will have its first A400M in intensive care aeromedical evacuation (ICAE) configuration on standby starting from 1st August 2018. The “flying intensive care unit” can carry up to six medical patients to safety, including two in critical condition. That capacity will be expanded to reach 10 patients in time, surpassing the capability of the existing fleet of C160 Transall transports. Germany, which is the largest buyer of the multinational A400M, has received 20 of the 53 A400M aircraft it plans to buy. It has taken years to add certain capabilities to the aircraft, and officials are still working on enhanced protective measures. Introduction of the A400M in MEDEVAC configuration will complement the capability currently provided only by the Luftwaffe’s A310 Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT), which can also treat up to six patients in addition to providing intermediate care to 16 others and 22 less serious cases.

Asia-Pacific

• Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force has now the first of its 27DDG-class destroyers in its fleet. Named the Maya, the guided-missile destroyer is equipped with the Aegis Baseline J7 combat system and the Northrop Grumman AN/SPQ-9B radar system, which provides the capability to detect and track low-flying, high-speed, low-observable anti-ship missile targets in heavy-clutter environments. Aegis Baseline J7 is the Japanese equivalent for the current Aegis Baseline 9/BMD 5.1 standard. The vessel is also equipped with Raytheon’s Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) – a sensor data sharing tool currently fielded only on US and Royal Australian Navy ships. Powered by two combined gas turbine-electric and gas turbine (COGLAG) engines, the ship and 300 crew are propelled to a maximum stated speed of 30 knots. The Maya is slated for commission into the JMSDF in 2020.

Today’s Video

• Watch: US Army equips its Bradley with Stinger missiles

Russian RPO PDM-A Shmel-M Thermobaric Rocket Launcher

A monsoon hit Luke AFB, Arizona, yesterday. These shots show F-35s being moved to shelters. Not only are airfields in Afghanistan (such as the former UK’s main strategic base in the southwest Camp Bastion, Helmand) or Niger affected by sandstorms. For instance, fast moving dust storms, able to darken large areas in a very short […]

New short article up on War on the Rocks. Here’s a preview….

Last summer, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Russia will continue to strengthen its forces around the Black Sea in order to “neutralize the security threat in the Black Sea region from NATO.” This rhetoric highlights the change in threat perceptions that has taken place on both sides in the region in recent years. Just 10 years ago, the Black Sea was touted as a model of naval cooperation among former adversaries. Collaborative naval activities such as BlackSeaFor and Black Sea Harmony, as well as regular Russian participation in NATO’s Active Endeavor, promised a future where all Black Sea littoral states worked together to ensure regional security and mitigate security threats such as smuggling. This cooperation started to falter after the 2008 Russo-Georgian war but was maintained through the combined efforts of Russia and NATO members – especially Turkey.

The situation changed radically after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, with NATO leaders expressing concern that Russia could turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake by devoting significant resources to the modernization of the Black Sea Fleet and strengthening Russian military forces in Crimea more generally. Russian political leaders, naval commanders, and policy experts have been open in explaining why they have prioritized the Black Sea Fleet in their naval modernization efforts. Part of that has to do with the parlous state of the fleet prior to 2014. Due to tensions with Ukraine and a general lack of investment in military procurement, Russia had sent only one new combat ship to the fleet between 1991 and 2014. As a result, by 2014 the fleet was barely functional and ships from other fleets had to be used to carry out Russian naval missions in the Mediterranean Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Read the rest here.

F-16 Viper Demo Team display at EAA AirVenture as you’ve never seen it before. Piloted by Maj. John “Rain” Waters, an operational F-16 pilot assigned to the 20th Operations Group, Shaw Air Force Base, South Carolina and the United States Air Force F-16 Viper Demonstration Team commander, the F-16 of the Viper Demo Teaam performs […]

An Italian Navy “Jump Jet” landed aboard the Wasp-class amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima (LHD 7) in the Med Sea. On Jul. 18, 2018, an AV-8B+ Harrier II belonging to the I GRUPAER (Gruppo Aerei Imbarcati) of the Marina Militare (Italian Navy), from Grottaglie, landed aboard USS Iwo Jima as the amphibious assault ship […]

The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) has reported that in 22 of Afghanistan’s provinces, cumulative rain and snowfall during the ‘wet season’ – October 2017 to May 2018 – was 30 to 60 per cent below average. The northwest of the country has been particularly hard hit. AAN’s Jelena Bjelica (with input from Obaid Ali and Kate Clark) reports on drought and displacement there and looks at the underlying problems – climate change and government neglect.

A closer look at the consequences of the drought in the northwest

Locals from the northwest Afghanistan say this year’s drought is the worst they remember. “I don’t remember it being this dry,” former Badghis MP Mullah Malang told AAN, “since I was 14 or 15 years old. That was in 1964.” Available reports show that drought there has crippled the local, mainly rainfed agriculture and left people without the basic means to survive. The World Food Programme (WFP) reported on 24 July 2018 that it plans to distribute urgent food assistance to 441,000 people in the drought-affected provinces of Badghis, Faryab, Ghor, Herat and Jowzjan. Some people have already been forced to leave their homes in these provinces.

The United Nations (UN) Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported in July 2018 (see here) that approximately 7,400 families, or over 50,000 people, have moved in the past months to Herat city from neighbouring Badghis and Ghor provinces as a result of drought and conflict. Badghis’s population is a little over half million people, according to the Afghan Central Statistics Organization 2017/18 census estimates (see here), of which over 496,000 people are from rural communities. Similarly, of a total of over 738,000 people in Ghor province, only some 7,700 live in urban settlements.

The 7,400 displaced families, according to the Norwegian Rescue Committee assessment, reside in 174 sites on the outskirts of Herat city on the road to Badghis. The number of families at each site ranges from 20 to several hundred. 1,760 families have received tents, while others live in makeshift shelters on open land in high summer temperatures of around 40 degrees Celsius. The humanitarian workers in the area said they have never seen people living in such disheartening conditions. They said they are living on bread and water, as they do not have enough money to afford rice or meat. OCHA, in its report, said that “children show visible signs of malnutrition and illness, including skin diseases and eye infections due to dust.” None of the children in the displacement sites attend school, it said, and in rural villages the dropout rate is high for boys and girls.

Sher Aqa, a landowner from Faryab, confirmed Mullah Malang’s assessment that this is the worst drought seen in decades and said some men from his province had migrated even further away than Herat to Iran, Pakistan and Turkey in search of work. According to the OCHA report, this traditional coping mechanism, ie labour-driven migration, may be less effective than in previous years. The report quotes an Afghan from Badghis who sent two sons to Iran. “One got arrested and deported, and the other is still hiding in Iran but has not found any work,” he told the UN. The latest reports also show that the number of deportations from Iran is on the increase (see here). This coincides with an Iranian currency devaluation by some 40 per cent over recent months (see here).

Another UN report seen by the author reports that families from areas where the impact of drought has been compounded by conflict have said they will not return to their villages, “even if they received food assistance in the areas of origin.” (1) This is because “they expected the conflict would still be ongoing for at least six months.” Instead, these families have chosen to stay in the overcrowded camps in and around Herat city. Some international organisations have reported increased tensions between long-term and newly-arrived Internally Displaced People (IDPs) and between IDPs and local residents in some locations. The same report said “there were a few incidents of killing, maiming and abduction of children reported by the families in the sites,” adding that “displaced people in informal settlements in Herat city live amongst poor host communities,” in which “sharing of resources, as an expression of solidarity, is something few families can afford.”

Various north and north-west provinces– Samangan, Balkh, Sar-e Pul, Faryab and Badghis, as well as the northern parts of Ghor and Herat – generally suffer more than the rest of the country from extended dry spells, localised drought, and above average temperatures (see this report by the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning System (FEWS). (FEWS covers 36 countries around the globe, rather than being a local natural disaster management authority).

The extended dry spells and drought in the northwest are related to local changes in climate in this part of Afghanistan that have been triggered by deforestation during the four decades of war and, subsequently, a lack of planned development and adequate management of natural resources. The Afghan government said in 2015 in its Paris Climate Change conference documents that between 1990 and 2000 the country lost on average 29,400 hectares of forest per year (see AAN analysis here). In Badghis province, for example, climate change has also been caused by extreme deforestation over the last forty years. The WFP reported in 2017 that, based on Department of Agriculture records in Badghis, there were 90,000 hectares of pistachio forest before the war, ie before 1978, and that drought and cutting of firewood has left the province with only some 28,000 hectares, one third of the original forest. The Independent newspaper, described Badghis in 2014 as a province where “grain has become the only currency that matters,” and was then in “its fourth year of a drought, which has destroyed the rural economy.”

In these provinces, opium poppy cultivation has increased at the expense of wheat (see AAN analysis here). One reason for this switch might be the scarcity of water, as opium poppy is relatively more drought-resistant. Usually, however,  the reasons behind a farmer’s decision to cultivate opium are multiple, as reported in a number of studies (see here; here and here). (2) Nevertheless, in the northern region of Baghlan, Balkh, Faryab, Jawzjan, Samangan and Sar-e Pul, the United Nation Office for Drug Control (UNODC) has noted a rapid expansion of opium poppy cultivation since 2014 (see this AAN analysis). The FEWS June 2018 outlook found that opium poppy cultivation in this zone in 2018 had increased by approximately 10 to 15 percent when compared to the 2017 figures. The report also reported a decrease in the area under wheat. The report offers a rather grim economic prospect, “the brief poppy harvest generates some local employment opportunities, often paying several times the wage rate of other sectors for a period of roughly two weeks.”

According to the FEWS outlook, licit agriculture production in this zone in 2018 is expected to fall below the production levels of 2017 – then already below the national average – while, “the availability of drinking water and fodder for the livestock are significantly worse than normal.” The FEWS reported:

Field reports indicate that June livestock prices are 30 to 40 percent lower than last year. Many drought-affected households are selling their livestock in unusual high quantities due to the need for cash and due to inability to properly care for the animals.

AAN interviews with farmers from Faryab and Sar-e Pul provinces confirmed that livestock prices have dropped in the north because of the drought and shortage of summer pasture, and that animals are being sold for almost half the usual price. Shortage of rainfall has badly affected the farmers in these provinces, where the prices for wheat, rice and other staple food have all gone up. Sher Aqa, the landowner in Faryab, told AAN that

… some wheat always grew, not as tall as usual, but it grew, and also poppy. Humans could not use the crops, but at least the animals could. They had fodder. This time, we don’t even have that.”

Both he and former Badghis MP Mullah Malang pointed to the steep drop in the price of sheep in their provinces, from around 7-8,000 Afghani to 1,500 Afghani. For Malang, this was an unquestionable sign of trouble yet to come. Selling livestock because there is not enough grazing to keep flocks alive or because of the need for cash for food means is a survival strategy of last resort. Malang said worse is to come:

In two or three months’ time, the pressure will be much greater. Winter is coming, food stocks will be finished, and the number of people escaping the province will go up.

The people are from the provinces of Badghis, Faryab and Ghor and left their homes and farms because of drought. Now, most are living in hot, harsh and dusty conditions beneath flimsy shelters made of sheets, blankets and tarpaulins. Many claimed that their livestock had died. As has been the case for other crises in western Afghanistan over the years, people gravitate toward the population hub of Herat City believing there will be resources and organisations to assist them. Photo: Andrew Quilty, 2018.

Changing climate conditions in Afghanistan

Climate change and climate hazards in Afghanistan were well-documented in the 2009 National Capacity Needs Self-Assessment for Global Environmental Management (NCSA) and National Adaptation Programme of Action for Climate Change (NAPA) Afghanistan final report. This document identified the key climate hazards for the country as periodic drought and a rise in temperature (see also this the 2017 Guardian report from the Afghanistan’s central highlands). Since 1960, the document said, the country has experienced regular droughts: two in the 1960s, in 1963-64 and 1966-67; one in the 1970s, in 1970-72; and the longest and most severe drought in Afghanistan’s known climatic history between 1998 and 2005/6 (see also AAN analysis here). The Stockholm Environmental Institute said in 2009 that “drought is likely to be regarded as the norm by 2030, rather than as a temporary or cyclical event.”

In June 2018, the FEWS warned that below average wet season precipitation levels will lead to a reduction in yields for rainfed staple crops, lower quality grazing pastures and poor livestock conditions and lower animal prices. In February 2017, FEWS released a similar warning as the October–December 2016 precipitation had been below average throughout most of the country. This shows that, for the second year in a row, Afghanistan is facing below-average precipitation levels during the wet season (October to May). These have coincided with the global atmospheric condition called La Niña. (3)

The two dry spells combined resulted in the lowest detected ‘snowpack’ in Afghanistan in February 2018 since 2001, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA’s) earth observatory reported. Snowpack is made up of accumulated layers of snow, compressed and hardened by their own weight, and are an important source of irrigation in much of Afghanistan. The above-average spring temperature in 2018 has also led to a roughly one month earlier than normal melt and depletion of snowpack in most basins. The snowmelt and increased precipitation levels late in the season resulted in deadly floods in Panjshir province in early July 2018 (see here, here, and here).

For Afghanistan’s agriculture, which is 80 per cent rainfed, low precipitation is potentially disastrous. The FEWS Food Security Outlook in June 2018 estimated that there will be a 2 to 2.5 million metric tonne national deficit in wheat, with most crop losses occurring in rainfed areas in the north, central, and western provinces. The domestic production of staples is already below average, particularly in rainfed production areas, FEWS reported, adding that most grazing pasture in the central highlands and northern Afghanistan had not regenerated as normal and that this would likely lead to poor livestock conditions and lower animal prices. As was reported above, this is already the case.

FEWS also found that on-farm labour demand and wages in June 2018 were lower than normal in most parts of the country and especially in the northern, north-eastern, and north-western rainfed wheat growing areas. Among the most likely food security outcomes for the whole country, the FEWS outlook from June 2018 reported that:

The prevalence of acute malnutrition at the national level is likely to deteriorate over the scenario period [July 2018 to January 2019], because of seasonal peak of diarrheal diseases from June to September. Furthermore, constant conflict, particularly in western, southern, eastern, northern, and northeastern regions, is also likely to limit access to health and nutritional services and access to agriculture products and food.

In April this year, the spokesman for the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority in Kabul, Hashmat Khan Bahaduri, told Reuters that “this year drought has reached a level that we will have to announce an emergency in several parts of the country.” It seems, though, that the emergency warning has not been issued yet, not even for the north and northwest of country which have been so hard hit this year.

Nevertheless, OCHA recently launched the revised 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan asking for an additional 84 million USD for food assistance to drought-affected people (see here). Currently, only 29 per cent of the 546.6 million USD 2018 Humanitarian Response Plan is funded.

Conclusion

Prolonged dry spells, compounded with the fighting in the northwest, have taken their toll on the lives of ordinary people. It is evident that the situation there calls for the relevant government authorities to take a more proactive and engaged role. However, the government’s lack of initiative or preparedness to deal with the consequences of natural disasters is striking. Afghanistan is one of 168 countries who are signatories to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005 – 2015 that states a need for member states to “identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.” Yet, the government has failed to respond to the early warnings provided by FEWS.

Afghanistan does have a body which should be doing this. The Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) was established in 2007, following the 2006 London Conference Communique, which stated, “[B]y end‐2010, an effective system of disaster preparedness and response will be in place.” The ANDMA has received an abundance of funding from a number of international organisations, including capacity-building from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Today, its website is still under construction and offers only one news-related item concerning the current situation in the northwest, ie the distribution of food items in Faryab province in June 2018.

The WFP, in its June 2018 Afghanistan update, reported that the Central Statistics Organization, and not the ANDMA, was leading a post-harvest emergency food security assessment with support from WFP, Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the Food Security and Agriculture Cluster. This suggests that the Central Statistics Organization is the lead for drought response assessment. The ANDMA has not been mentioned at all in any of the recent drought-related reports and appeals.

As to the country’s latest national disaster management plan, it is four years old, dating from 2014 (Dari version here; see here for related documents and plans). According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) 2017 guidelines on national disaster risk assessment, such plans are usually produced in time horizons of three to five years. However, as the Afghan plan does not stipulate which timeframe it covers, its relevance for the current situation, caused by the relatively recent La Niña conditions, is questionable.

Finally, AAN sources in the northwest said that most government offices in this part of the country are not open, indicating that local early warnings through the relevant ministries probably also did not happen.

Yet the desolate situation in ‘remote’ provinces such as Ghor, Badghis, Samangan, and parts of Faryab is also a consequence of a lack of development. As AAN recently reported on the state of aid and poverty, around 40 per cent of the country has not been privy to donor funds. Badghis province, in particular, has suffered from a lack of development funding (see this AAN analysis). There has been a lack of targeted development to mitigate the effects of regular and expected climatic crises such as droughts. This raises the question of whether displacement from the northwest is only a consequence of natural disaster or is also a result of government neglect and lack of planning.

Edited by Sari Kouvo and Kate Clark

 

(1) Report: Inter-Cluster Coordination Team Mission Herat and Badghis 7 – 11 July 2018. Seen by author, not available online.

(2) An Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU) paper (quoted here), for example, points to a combination of factors beyond infrastructure that feed into farmers’ decisions to grow opium poppies as opposed to alternative crops. These include the following: (i) the position of key elites vis-à-vis poppy cultivation, (ii) food security, and (iii) social equality. This means that, where key government officials or power-holders are opposed to poppy cultivation, their opposition could prevent farmers from planning the crop, even where conditions otherwise seemed ripe for it. In addition, AREU found that greater food security and social equality lead to reduced poppy cultivation. Ultimately, the study found that that “the absence of opium cultivation was more than a matter of water.” Therefore, the report suggests that water availability is a necessary, but insufficient, condition to enable a switch to alternative crops. In fact, under certain conditions, strong irrigation systems may incentivise poppy cultivation.

See also this AREU paper from 2007 which states:

For the poor, opium poppy is attractive because it is a low-risk crop in a high-risk environment, not because it allows them to maximise economic returns. Some crops — particularly as part of mixed cropping systems and combined with non- farm income opportunities — can compete in terms of financial returns with opium poppy when opium prices are lower, but no crop can offer the same qualitative attributes, including: relative drought resistance, a non-perishable product, an almost- guaranteed market, and traders who offer advance payments against the future crop.

A word of caution related to opium prices; UNDOC found that, during years of high production, eg 2006 to 2008, the average price decreased (137 USD in 2006 to 91 USD/kg in 2008), whereas, following a supply shortage (for example, the Taleban ban on opium in 2001), the average price strongly increased (295 USD/kg in 2001; 382 USD/kg in 2002; 355 USD/kg in 2003). In 2017, an average price of opium was 155 USD/kg. For more see here.

See also this 2006 AREU case study on Balkh and Kunduz’s opium cultivation and water management, which says: “It is also unlikely that there is any one single determinant for whether or not opium poppy is cultivated – there are multiple reasons and farmers’ decision-making is contingent on context and time.”

(3) La Niña, the direct opposite of El Niño, occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-normal levels. The cooling of this area of water near the equator, which typically unfolds during late fall into early winter, yields impacts around the globe. (see here).

La Niña conditions in the atmosphere tend to push the jet stream northward over Central Asia and reduce the frequency of storms over Afghanistan, leading to a reduction in precipitation totals and an increased risk for dry spells. This anticipated weather pattern generally occurred over Afghanistan, particularly through the winter and early spring. Although precipitation improved late in the season, seasonal totals in some areas remained 50 percent below average according to satellite-based estimates, with extended periods of dryness and drought in much of the northern part of the country, particularly the northwest. Accordingly, peak snow water equivalent in most hydrological basins was well below average. Low total snowpack and above-average spring temperatures have led to early depletion of snowpack in most basins, roughly one month earlier than normal. FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor report from June 6, 2018 provides further summary of the 2017/2018 wet season.

According to the Environmental Science website El Niño and La Niña change or affect climate change in the future is now of tremendous importance thanks to the known effects over the last century or more. However, “the conditions are still not very well understood, though the phenomenon has been known since the early 1600s.”

Famous RAF Base Has Illustrious History Dating Back to WWI as One of Oldest Air Bases. The British Ministry of Defense (MoD) has announced the upcoming closure of the famous RAF Scampton air base outside the village of Scampton, Lincolnshire, UK. The base is among the oldest military air facilities in the world, having commenced […]

Following consultations with Member States, Federica Mogherini, the Head of the European Defence Agency (EDA), has appointed three new chairs for the EDA Steering Boards in R&T Directors, National Armaments Directors and Capability Directors compositions, with effect from 1 December 2018:

• R&T Directors: Dr Luisa Riccardi (Italy)
• National Armaments Directors: Deputy Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov (Bulgaria)
• Capability Directors: Major General Eric Schevenhoven (The Netherlands)

“I thank the outgoing chairmen - Deputy Minister Daniel Koštoval, Lt Gen Erhard Bühler and Dr Bryan Wells - for their commitment and outstanding work delivered over the past three years in these important positions”, Jorge Domecq, the EDA Chief Executive, stated. “I am sure that with their vast professional experience and personal qualities, the incoming chairs will continue on this path and be excellent chairpersons. Presiding over the Steering Boards at the level of R&T Directors, National Armaments Directors, and Capability Directors, both the outgoing and incoming chairpersons play key roles in supporting the EDA in the definition and implementation of the latest EU defence initiatives, especially the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD), the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF).”

Dr Luisa Riccardi currently serves as a Technology Innovation Department Director at the Italian Ministry of Defence where she is responsible for the overall military research and technology development strategy plans and policies. She is also in charge of harmonizing the objectives set forth in the National Military Research Programme with the Italian National Research Plan and the country’s overall research and technology policy. Prior to her current assignment, Dr Riccardi served as the first Director of the newly established litigation Department of the Secretariat General of Defense/National Armaments Directorate in the Italian MoD.

Lieutenant General Atanas Zapryanov is Deputy Minister of Defence of Bulgaria. He previously held several important command and staff positions in the Signal Troops of the Bulgarian Army, among others platoon commander, company commander, deputy battalion commander, chief of staff and deputy commander of the 95th Signal regiment of the second army in Plovdiv, chief of staff, deputy director and director of the Signal Troops Directorate to the General Staff of the Bulgarian Army. He also served as a Deputy Chief of Staff of the Bulgarian Army for resources (until 2006), and as the military representative of the Chief of General Staff in NATO military committees and the European Union (until 2010).

Major General Eric Schevenhoven has been Director of Plans of the Defence Staff in the Dutch Ministry of Defence since 1 September 2015. In this position, he also fulfils the role of Dutch Capability Director for NATO and the EU and is a member of the Defence Research Council (RDO), the National Aviation and Aerospace Centre Advisory Council (NLR) and the Coastguard Council. Major General Schevenhoven started his military career in 1980 at the Royal Military Academy in Breda. During his career, he served among others as Deputy Director Governance in NATO's ISAF Headquarters in in Kabul /Afghanistan (2011-2012) and as National Deputy for the Netherlands in the Joint Strike Fighter Program Office in Washington D.C. (2007-2010).   

More information

• EDA governance

Americas

• Hamilton Sundstrand Corp. is being contracted for support work on the MV-22 and CV-22 platforms. The three-year long-term requirements contract has a value of $64.8 million and provides for repair work of the constant frequency generator (CFG) installed on the aircraft. The MV-22 is flown by the US Marine Corps. The newest Block C variant includes forward-mounted defensive systems, ice detectors, dust protection and a “Cabin Situational Awareness Device”. The US Air Force Special Operations Command operates the CV-22, which adds more sophisticated surveillance capabilities and beefed-up defensive systems. The CFG together with the auxiliary power unit and variable frequency generator is housed in the V-22’s mid-wing gearbox. The mid-wing gearbox transmits power between the left and right interconnecting drive shafts without changing speed or direction of rotation. This contract intends to enhance the CFG reliability and improve its overall aircraft operational readiness. Work will be performed in Rockford, Illinois, and is expected to be completed by July 2021.

• Boeing is being awarded a change order by the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center. The change order is valued at $15.5 million and provides for the development, qualification and delivery of a Flight Termination Receiver 2.0 (FTR 2.0). For 50 years, land-based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) have been part of the US primary strategic deterrence capability, the nuclear-armed triad that also includes submarine-launched ballistic missiles and long-range heavy bombers. Nuclear weapons have a devastating effect and a nuclear war has the potential to wipe out all life on earth. The FTR is an essential piece that allows for the missiles destruction after it has already been launched. The Flight Termination System can take a number of commands via Radio Frequency that range from safing and arming devices to terminating the missiles flight. Work will be performed in Layton, Utah, and is expected to be completed by July 31, 2021.

• The US Army is contracting Raytheon to support its Electronic Warfare Program Management Tool (EWPMT). The contract modification provides for interim contractor support to maintain and field the EWPMT’s Capability Drop 3 through 4. Development of the tool was the Army’s answer to an ever-increasing amount of electromagnetic spectrum operations and electronic warfare. Rolle out in 2016, the EWPMT provides commanders with both greater understanding and awareness of the spectrum for better planning and decision making. Key tasks the tool provides the force with; include capabilities to plan, coordinate, manage and deconflict electronic warfare and spectrum management operations; integration of electronic attack in the targeting process to ensure electronic attack can meet the commanders’ desired effect, and synchronization of electronic warfare and spectrum operations. Work will be performed in Fort Wayne, Indiana, with an estimated completion date by September 2022.

• The US Air Force’s fleet of E-8 JSTARS is earmarked for retirement by the mid-2020s. The National Defense Authorization Act endorses the Air Force’s plan to replace the E-8 JSTARS with a new network of sensors spread across unmanned aerial vehicles and aircraft, called the Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS). The USA’s 17-plane E-8C Joint Surveillance Targeting and Attack Radar System fleet’s ability to monitor enemy ground movements over very wide areas, while seeing through problematic weather conditions, has made it an invaluable contributor to every US military ground campaign over the last 15+ years. In the future the E-8’s role will be filled by the MQ-9 UAV. The ABMS is a network of de-centralized systems, which fuses the data from hundreds of sensors to provide situational awareness for combatant commanders across the globe. The current NDAA provides $120 million for the accelerating the development of the ABMS and its integration onto the MQ-9.

Middle East & Africa

• The Israeli Air Force is receiving funds for construction work on of its bases under the US foreign military sales program. Conti Federal Services is being awarded a firm-fixed-price contract with a value of $69.4 million to build hardened aircraft shelters in Israel. This contract is part of a larger Israeli infrastructure project needed to accommodate the countries new F-35i ‘Adir’ fighter jets. Those hardened aircraft shelters are outfitted with cranes and underground pits, as well as air-conditioning, water, sewage, and compressed-air systems. Construction of those shelters is vital to protecting the multi-million fighter jets in light of the growing threat of large-scale rocket and missile attacks by Hamas and Hezbollah. Work will be performed in Tel Aviv, Israel and is scheduled for completion by September 2020.

Europe

• The Spanish S-80 submarine program is experienced further delays. The S-80 program had its genesis in 1989, but it wasn’t until 1997 that Spain’s Armada began defining its objectives more clearly. The S-80 contract between Spain and Navantia was signed in 2004 with the initial delivery planned to take place in 2011. The program was interrupted in 2013 due to excess weight problems that threatened the submarines buoyancy. Spain’s S-80 submarines will be an entirely new and larger ship class that builds upon Navantia’s recent submarine experience, rather than a modified version of the more well-known AIM 2000 Scorpene AIP boats. It will share some key technology developments, however, including Air-Independent Propulsion. At present, its seems that the first submarine will be delivered in 2023, over a decade later than envisaged.

• Poland will soon add Lockheed Martin’s High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to its inventory. The government has decided to obtain the weapon system directly from the US rather than procuring the same capability through a consortium led by the Polish Armaments Group (PGZ). The acquisition is part of Poland’s Homar program that seeks to obtain a squadron-level fire module of multiple rocket launchers. The program aims to provide the Polish Army with a capability of striking targets at distances of up to 180 miles. HIMARS is a highly-mobile artillery rocket system offering the firepower of MLRS on a wheeled chassis. HIMARS is operated by a crew of three – driver, gunner and section chief – but the computer-based fire control system enables a crew of two or even a single soldier to load and unload the system. In addition to the standard MLRS round, HIMARS is capable of launching the entire MLRS family of munitions, including the extended-range rocket, the reduced-range practice rocket and all future variants. HIMARS carries a single six-pack of MLRS rockets, or one army tactical missile system (ATACMS) missile.

Asia-Pacific

• The Philippine Navy (PN) is set to take delivery of its first two AW-159 ‘Wildcat’ helicopters in March 2019. The ‘Wildcat’ comes in an Army and Navy version. Both AW159 versions will share a common fully-marinized airframe, with provisions for a range of mission and role-based equipment with an estimated 90% commonality. The PN has opted for an anti-submarine warfare package to protect its frigates currently being constructed by Hyundai Heavy Industries. The AW159 helicopters will be able to carry rockets and gun pods, and the naval version adds BAE’s Sting Ray light torpedoes. The helicopter is capable flying at a speed of 291 km/h and has a range of 777 km. The contract for the two anti-submarine helicopters is worth over $101 million and includes munition, mission essential equipment, and integrated logistic support.

Today’s Video

• Watch: The Islamic Republic of Iran has overhauled and upgraded 10 of its Su-22s.

Airbus Group released details of its financial performance in the first half of the year on 26 July, revealing sales of EUR24,970 million (USD29,037 million), down slightly from EUR25,175 million in the first half of 2017. Although the company’s adjusted measure of earnings before interest and

The second of the Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN’s) three Hobart-class air warfare destroyers (AWDs) was officially handed over to the Australian Department of Defence (DoD) on 27 July. Minister for Defence Industry Christopher Pyne, who attended the acceptance ceremony of NUSHIP Brisbane

The Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) is pursuing a solar-electric, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) development programme called Qi Mingxing (Venus), Chinese aviation news portal CAN News reported in late July. According to the report, AVIC’s First Aircraft Institute

The China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) has signed an agreement with the China Development Bank (CDB) to support a range of initiatives related to industrial modernisation and defence research and development. In a press release on 24 July CASIC said that its financial

The Colombian Navy (Armada de la República de Colombia: ARC) commissioned the amphibious landing vessel ARC Bahía Colombia (244) during a ceremony in Cartagena on 23 July. The ship is a rapid-reaction unit variant and features a Sormec crane, two 90 kW emergency power generators, and a

The US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has selected teams from academia and commercial industry to explore flexible computer architectures that can exploit specialised hardware to quickly and efficiently solve a range of computing problems. These selected teams have also been

India’s indigenously designed classified missile tracking and ocean surveillance ship (OSS) is undergoing harbour trials at Vishakhapatnam on the country’s east coast, ahead of starting sea trials by the end of the year, security sources told Jane’s. Thereafter, the 15,000-tonne