Defence`s Feeds

Following the agreement between EUROCONTROL and the European Defence Agency (EDA) signed in 2013, both organisations have started a close cooperation on the SESAR programme. In compliance with the initial agreement, the cooperative work has been updated by the two organisations for the years 2017-2018 in order to accommodate the tasks as defined in the SESAR 2020 programme.

The work programme makes EUROCONTROL’s expertise in civil-military ATM coordination available to EDA to facilitate EDA’s role regarding the coordination of military views in the context of the Single European Sky (SES) and its interface towards the EU institutions.

During the implementation of the previous joint work programme, the EDA-EUROCONTROL cooperation successfully contributed to the provision of harmonised military inputs to the 2015 ATM Master Plan update campaign, supported Member States bidding for EU co-financing in INEA calls and provided technical impact analysis on the SESAR deployment programme and EASA regulatory material under development.

“The needs of military aviation often go beyond the scope of civil aviation,” said Frank Brenner, Director General of EUROCONTROL. “To work effectively, European airspace management must address both military and civil airspace user needs with coordinated processes and consultation between civilian and military stakeholders. EUROCONTROL and EDA are working together to contribute to this process”.

“To preserve military access to all airspace, it remains essential that we develop harmonised low-cost interoperable SESAR solutions, including standardisation and certification processes, and that we provide common mitigation actions”, said Jorge Domecq, Chief Executive of the European Defence Agency. “Moreover the deployment phase of SESAR offers an opportunity for the military, to avail itself of funding to enhance their ATM technology, when appropriate. This has already been the case for INEA Call 2015, whereby 14 military projects submitted through EDA have been awarded funds adding up to a total of €53.5 million, which is roughly 10.5% of total funds awarded.”

EUROCONTROL and EDA have been working closely together since 2008 to ensure improved coordination and cooperation between civil and military air traffic, moving towards a Single European Sky for both military and civil air transport.

 

For further information, please contact:

Kyla Evans
Head of Corporate Communications
EUROCONTROL
Tel: +32 2 729 51 51
press@eurocontrol.int
www.eurocontrol.int

Eric Platteau
Head of Media & Communications
European Defence Agency
Tel: +32 2 504 28 23
eric.platteau@eda.europa.eu
www.eda.europa.eu

The International Criminal Court’s Office of the Prosecutor has said it will “imminently” be taking a decision on whether to request authorisation from judges to commence an investigation into war crimes in Afghanistan. The Taleban could be investigated, among other offences, for murder and intentionally attacking civilians, while Afghan government forces, and the US military and CIA could be investigated for torturing security detainees. As Kate Clark and Ehsan Qaane report, this next step towards US citizens possibly being called to trial in The Hague has arisen just as Donald Trump, a man who believes in torture, has been voted into the White House.

The ICC’s Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) released its 2016 Preliminary Examination Report on Afghanistan (released annually) on 14 November 2016. The report says that the OTP had determined there was a reasonable basis to believe that, at a minimum, the following crimes within the Court’s jurisdiction had occurred:

• Crimes against humanity and war crimes by the Taliban and their affiliated Haqqani Network;
• War crimes of torture and related ill-treatment by Afghan government forces, in particular the intelligence agency (National Directorate for Security) and the Afghan National Police;
• War crimes of torture and related ill-treatment, by US military forces deployed to Afghanistan and in secret detention facilities operated by the Central Intelligence Agency, principally in the 2003-2004 period, although allegedly continuing in some cases until 2014.

The Preliminary Examination also said that thresholds of admissibility had been reached, ie the alleged crimes are under ICC jurisdiction, are sufficiently grave, are not being addressed by domestic or other legal bodies (although this is “subject to further information that could be provided by the relevant national authorities in the course of the preliminary examination or any subsequent investigation”) and there are “no substantial reasons to believe that the opening of an investigation would not be in the interests of justice.”

The Taleban

There is a reasonable basis, the OTP said, to believe that the Taleban and the Haqqani network have committed war crimes (murder; intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population, humanitarian personnel and protected objects; conscripting children; and killing or wounding treacherously a combatant adversary – all of which, it said, “were committed on a large scale and as part of a plan or policy”) and crimes against humanity (murder; imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty and persecution against any identifiable group or collectivity on political grounds and on gender grounds, all “allegedly committed as part of a widespread and/or systematic attack…” – for full quote, see paragraphs 206 and 207 of the report.)

In terms of admissibility, the Taleban and Haqqani network’s crimes passed the gravity threshold. As to whether domestic courts are dealing with suspected war criminals, the OTP pointed to the almost complete lack of any investigation or trial of alleged war criminals in Afghanistan (1) and to the 2009 Amnesty Law which provides amnesty to everyone who committed war crimes, including those who, in the future, reconcile with the Afghan government (see also this AAN report). It was noticeable, in this respect, that the government recently also granted immunity to Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and his armed men in the context of the peace agreement signed with Hezb-e Islami on 29 September 2016. (2) Amnesty for war crimes in domestic legislation can be interpreted as unwillingness by the state to prosecute.

The NDS and Afghan police

Multiple sources, the OTP said, including the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC), UNAMA and a presidential fact-finding commission in 2013 have reported on the prevalence of torture in Afghan government detention facilities. The OTP estimates 35 to 50 per cent of conflict-related detainees “may be subjected to torture” and says there is a “state of total impunity.”

There is a reasonable basis to believe, the OTP said, that Afghan authorities have committed the war crimes of torture and cruel treatment; outrages upon personal dignity pursuant to article; and (this is new in the OTP’s reports) sexual violence. Naming the Afghan intelligence agency the National Directorate of Security (NDS), the Afghan National Police, Afghan National Army, Afghan Border Police and the Afghan Local Police (ALP), it says available information suggests the alleged crimes were committed on a “large scale.” Although there is no indication that they were committed “as part of any plans or policies at the national level,” in some cases, it said, there were plans or policies at the level of facility, district or province.

The US military and CIA

The information available, says the OTP, provides a reasonable basis to believe that during interrogations of security detainees and in conduct supporting those interrogations, members of the US armed forces and the CIA:

… resorted to techniques amounting to the commission of the war crimes of torture, cruel treatment, outrages upon personal dignity, and rape… Specifically:

Members of US armed forces appear to have subjected at least 61 detained persons to torture, cruel treatment, outrages upon personal dignity on the territory of Afghanistan between 1 May 2003 and 31 December 2014. The majority of the abuses are alleged to have occurred in 2003-2004.

Members of the CIA appear to have subjected at least 27 detained persons to torture, cruel treatment, outrages upon personal dignity and/or rape on the territory of Afghanistan and other States Parties to the Statute (namely Poland, Romania and Lithuania) between December 2002 and March 2008. The majority of the abuses are alleged to have occurred in 2003-2004.

Crucially, the OTP says these “alleged crimes were not the abuses of a few isolated individuals,” but rather were part of a policy:

The Office considers that there is a reasonable basis to believe these alleged crimes were committed in furtherance of a policy or policies aimed at eliciting information through the use of interrogation techniques involving cruel or violent methods which would support US objectives in the conflict in Afghanistan.

It notes their use ended when the authorities decided to stop using them, indicating the alleged crimes were ordered, rather than being the work of random individuals.

Unlike the 2015 Preliminary Examination report, for both US and Afghan forces, rape is mentioned in the sections on the use of torture in the interrogation of security detainees.

As to civilian casualties caused by the international military, something which many survivors and the families of those killed hoped would be taken up by the ICC, this now looks unlikely. Civilians can be lawfully killed during conflict. (3) As the OTP said, “[A]lthough these operations resulted in incidental loss of civilian life and harm to civilians, in most incidents the information available does not provide a reasonable basis to believe that the military forces intended the civilian population as such or individual civilians not taking direct part in hostilities to be the object of the attack.”

There were a few incidents where lack of information meant the OTP could not determine whether harm done to civilians amounted to war crimes. If the judges (the ICC’s Pre-Trial Chamber) authorised an investigation, it said, and depending on whether this matter passed selection and prioritisation criteria, they could be looked into further. However, it is unclear if even these incidents of civilian casualties, if investigated, would be considered potential war crimes or whether they would meet the gravity threshold of admissibility.

The evidence 

The OTP does not go into the evidence, so the following is very much the authors’ initial take on possible investigations.

The Taleban regularly and publically claim to have committed what are, in effect, war crimes, as in a recent example, the deliberate attack on the German Consulate (a civilian target) in Mazar-e Sharif last week. (The attack killed four and injured more than one hundred civilians living nearby.) UNAMA routinely reports such incidents in its Protection of Civilians reports. In the first six months of this year, for example, it found the Taleban had claimed 51 attacks which deliberately targeted civilians or civilian locations. AAN has itself investigated such incidents claimed by the Taleban (see for example, here and here). Both in their codes of conduct (layhas) and public declarations, the Taleban allow or have ordered the commission of war crimes; these include the targeting of Afghan civilians working with the government and foreign organisations, justice sector workers and journalists with certain media organisations (see here and here) and in the early days of the insurgency also schools, teachers and NGO workers.(4)

There have been multiple reports on the use of torture by NDS, in particular, but also by the Afghan police and ALP (see here and here). The Afghan government has acknowledged the use of torture in government facilities, but as UNAMA has reported, has failed to take criminal or even administrative action against torturers, creating effective impunity. AAN has also reported regularly on this issue (dispatches also contain links to the major investigations by UNAMA and AIHRC: see for instance here, here and here). (5)

In 2001/2002, the US administration of George Bush decided, in its handling of ‘war on terror’ detainees, to forgo the Geneva Conventions, including common article 3 which, among other things, bans torture and “degrading and humiliating treatment.” The president claimed the ‘enhanced interrogation techniques’ he authorised did not amount to torture, although the OTP clearly believes otherwise.

The US’s use of torture against security detainees was systemic (although not every detainee was tortured) and there is a wealth of documentation about how decisions were taken and the misgivings of many in the military and the CIA about its use. The torture has been detailed by human rights organisations; the US government (see a list of investigations up to 2008 put together by the International Center for Transitional Justice); Congress, looking at both the military and the
 CIA; journalists (for example, here and here) and former detainees. Methods used included being deprived of sleep for days, waterboarding, food deprivation, being continuously shackled, being forced to kneel or stand in painful ‘stress positions’ for extended periods, being beaten, kicked, soaked in cold water, being stripped and sexually humiliated, and being forced to listen to music loud enough to deafen for hours at a time.

Media headlines (for example, here and here) about the ICC report have mainly focussed on the possibility of Americans being in the dock for war crimes. The US is not a member of the ICC. Bill Clinton signed the Rome treaty that established the court in December 2000, but George W Bush renounced the signature in May 2002 saying he feared Americans would be unfairly prosecuted for political reasons. However, Americans could still be prosecuted for alleged crimes committed in Afghanistan because it is a member. The Rome Treaty came into force in Afghanistan in May 2003 and only crimes committed after then are admissible (some of the most egregious and best-documented US torture cases, including three deaths in custody took place before then). However, there could be investigations into earlier alleged of torture by the CIA of detainees in Poland, Romania and Lithuania, given, the OTP said, there was a nexus to the Afghanistan conflict. The Rome Statue entered into force in Poland and Romania on 1 July 2002 and Lithuania on 1 August 2003.

Trump-era practices?

The interrogation practices which could now be investigated by the ICC as incidents of torture were eventually outlawed in the US. In 2005, Congress banned the techniques which Bush had authorised and, in 2009, Obama passed an executive order restricting interrogators to using only techniques authorised in the Army Field Manual; that order was codified into law by the Senate in 2015. Obama called waterboarding torture and his attorney general, Eric H Holder, said the country was owed “a reckoning” for torture carried out after the September 11th attacks. However, in the end, Obama decided not to conduct a broad criminal investigation into Bush-era officials saying, “We need to look forward, as opposed to looking backward.”

However, the new US president-elect is again officially championing those techniques. Like Bush, Trump believes torture ‘works’. As AAN has reported, he has praised waterboarding, saying, “I like it a lot. I don’t think it’s tough enough.” Even if it did not work, he said, he would authorise it because “they deserve it anyway for what they do to us.”

There may be other supporters of torture in the new Trump administration. Two men being suggested as possible secretaries of state are Newt Gingrich, former Senate speaker, who said of waterboarding, “under the normal rules internationally it’s not torture” and John Bolton, former Bush-era ambassador to the United Nations, who criticised Obama for saying the US state had used torture as it would be “aiding an effort to establish liability for the top political leaders up to and including President Bush and [former] Secretary [of Defense Donald] Rumsfeld.”

The name of Jose Rodrigues has also come up as a future director of the CIA. Just after the 9/11 attacks, he was appointed chief of staff of the CIA’s Counterterrorism Centre and was later promoted to director of the CIA’s National Clandestine Service. He was a key player in creating the CIA’s torture and rendition programme and in trying to cover up it up; in November 2010, after photographs showing detainees being abused at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq were published, he ordered the destruction of video tapes showing detainees being water-boarded. Rodrigues could have been charged with misleading investigators or obstructing justice, but in 2010, the Department of Justice decided not to put him on trial.

Like Trump, Rodrigues has spoken of the need to go beyond the methods of torture signed off by Bush. “Enhanced interrogation techniques are well known to the enemy and we would have to come up with something else,” he told The Daily Beast, although he declined to tell the paper what that might entail. As anti-torture laws were passed during the Obama years, practicing torture again may not be as easy as it looks, although see here and here for legal analysis of what the new president’s options might be.

Trump has also said he wants to expand the ‘war on terror’ detention camp at Guantánamo Bay (with five remaining Afghan inmates, along with 55 others). Such a move would increase the potential for abuses to take place as inmates do not enjoy the same legal protections as those on mainland America and it is far more difficult for lawyers and journalists to scrutinise.

Conclusion

The ICC has been under fire for ‘only investigating Africans’ (that was the reason, said three countries, South Africa, Burundi and Gambia, why they were withdrawing from the ICC earlier this month. (6) In January of this year, Georgia became the first non-African country that the OTP received Pre-trial Chamber authorisation for to investigate – in this case, alleged war crimes committed during the 2008 Russian-Georgian conflict over South Ossetia. Afghanistan could be the second. Even if it does, however, building cases against specific individuals, especially in a war zone, will be difficult. With its new report, the ICC may be one step closer, but it is still many steps away, from bringing Americans or Afghans accused of committing war crimes in Afghanistan to trial.

 

(1) The OTP mentions two possible exceptions: the pre-Amnesty Law conviction of Abdullah Shah, an Ettehad-e Islami commander for murders committed during the civil war in Kabul and “reportedly two senior members of the Haqqani Network… prosecuted and convicted by a national primary court in August 2016 for an unknown alleged conduct.”

(2) The OTP mentions Hezb-e Islami only in the context of the list of groups fighting the Afghan government.

(3) Civilians can lawfully be killed as ‘collateral damage’ during conflict. However, they cannot be targeted, combatants must take precautions to avoid causing civilian harm and if civilian harm is expected from an attack on a military objective, this must be proportional to the military gain.

(4) In the Taleban’s 2006 code of conduct, teaching in government schools was deemed illegal and punishments were harsh. Teachers were to be warned and if necessary beaten: “…if a teacher or mullah continues to instruct contrary to the principles of Islam, the district commander or group leader must kill him.” Education was allowed, but only in a mosque or similar institution, using jihad or Emirate-era textbooks and by someone with religious training. Schools were to be closed and if necessary burned. Any contract with an NGO, in exchange for money or materials, had to be authorised at the highest level, by the leadership shura. The 2006 code of conduct described NGOs as “tools of the infidels.” These instructions and descriptions were dropped in the subsequent codes of conduct of 2009 and 2010 (more on this here).

(5) A day after the OTP released its 2016 Preliminary Examination Report on Afghanistan, the Afghan National Security Council, led by President Ghani, finally publically announced its commitment to the Rome Statute and other related matters, including prohibiting the recruitment of child soldiers into the Afghan National Security Forces, prohibiting civilian casualties, eliminating torture and bringing reform to the judiciary so that it can adjudicate international crimes. Additionally, the National Security Council stressed its commitment to cooperate with the ICC. Prior to this, in in January 2016, Afghanistan had established an inter-ministerial committee to look into how the country could interact with the ICC. The committee was tasked with developing a regulation to manage Afghanistan’s interaction with the ICC. That regulation is now in operation with the AIHRC in charge. A year ago, the OTP complained about the lack of Afghan government cooperation. In this month’s report, it said Afghanistan was preparing to share the “required information” with it.

(6) South Africa, Burundi and Gambia were joined on 16 November 2016 by Russia which said it was formally withdrawing its signature from the Rome Treaty, a day after the ICC published a report classifying the Russian annexation of Crimea in March 2014 as an occupation.

The UK Navy's Royal Fleet Auxiliary vessel (RFA) Argus has resumed one of its primary roles as an aviation training ship after completing operational sea training.

SENER engineering and technology group has received the 11th Masterinstal Award in the Energy Efficiency and Energy Management category, for a power cogeneration project developed jointly with GTEL and Siemens for the Brazilian industry.

MBDA Deutschland has successfully conducted tracking tests with its new high-energy laser effector under real environmental conditions for the first time.

Insitu has successfully demonstrated its ScanEagle unmanned aerial system’s (UAS) newest wide-area maritime surface search and identification technology at the UK Royal Navy’s Unmanned Warrior exercise.

Argentine and Chilean sea platforms are to monitor the Antarctic from 15 November 2016 to 31 March 2017 under the Joint Antarctic Naval Patrol (Patrulla Antártica Naval Combinada: PANC) framework. The operation includes search-and-rescue missions, monitoring maritime traffic, potential cleanup

The first battalion for the new Central African Armed Forces (FACA) should be fully formed and trained by mid-2017, the commander of the European Union Training Mission in the Central African Republic (EUTM RCA) has said. Addressing reporters in Brussels on 16 November, Major General Eric

The Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hizbullah showed off its recently established armoured unit in a parade held in the Syrian town of Al-Qusayr on 11 November. Held to mark the group's annual Martyrs' Day, the parade involved dozens of armoured vehicles, including T-72 and T-54/55 tanks, BMP-1

Indonesia's Ministry of Industry has said it will support defence exports from state-owned aerospace firm PT Dirgantara (PTDI) by providing its prospective customers with access to credit from the Indonesian Export Financing Agency, otherwise known as the Indonesia Eximbank. "We [will] give

The Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) contracted Damen Shipyards Group to build two new Stan Patrol 4207 vessels to replace the core of the JDF Coast Guard's fleet, the yard announced on 16 November. Damen said the new vessels will replace the JDF Coast Guard's three Damen County-class offshore patrol

Syria's longest range surface-to-air (SAM) systems have been refurbished and are now contributing to the anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) network in the Eastern Mediterranean region, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said on 15 November. "We have repaired the Syrian S-200 [air defence]

Key Points TALONS is a low-cost, elevated sensor mast based on a fully automated parafoil system DARPA is now transitioning TALONS to the USN The US Navy (USN) is planning further at-sea testing of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA's) Towed Airborne Lift of Naval Systems

The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) is working with industry to develop a deployable 3-D printing capability. A concept demonstrator is currently under development, with the ultimate aim being to reduce the logistical footprint, time, and resources required to replenish components used in military

The Uruguayan Navy lacks "the necessary resources" to carry out its missions, Admiral Leonardo Alonso, commander of the Uruguayan Navy, declared on 15 November. The statement was made during the navy's 199th anniversary celebrations, with President Tabaré Vásquez in attendance.

The US State Department has approved the sale of the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc (GA-ASI) Certifiable Predator B (CPB) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to the United Kingdom, the Defense Security and Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced on 16 November. The approval covers the sale of 16 of

Key Points USN and industry officials have acknowledged that alternatives to LRLAP are being considered as projectiles for the Zumwalt destroyers' main guns The navy says no official decision has been made on whether to cancel the LRLAP buy for Zumwalt The US Navy (USN) and industry are

Key Points NAVAIR plans a contract award to Raytheon in early 2017 for JSOW ER all-up-round test support Scope of work includes adding a production-representative engine/fuel/inlet system, and software modifications to optimise mid-course/endgame performance The US Navy (USN) is finalising plans

A delegation from the SEDE Subcommittee of the European Parliament, led by Subcommittee Chair Anna Elżbieta Fotyga MEP, held discussions with EDA Chief Executive Jorge Domecq on defence-related research and the EDA’s role in the implementation of the EU Global Strategy.

Welcoming the MEPs to the EDA, Chief Executive Jorge Domecq expressed his appreciation for the SEDE Subcommittee’s support to the EDA and especially “with regard to the Pilot Project and Preparatory Action for defence-related R&T”. During the meeting Mr. Domecq and the SEDE members discussed current developments in relation to the Security & Defence Implementation Plan of the EU Global Strategy, progress on defence-related research, and on-going EDA activities and projects. 

Ms Anna Elżbieta Fotyga, Chair of the SEDE Subcommittee on Security and Defence, commented; “I think I speak for all our members when I say that we are impressed with the work the EDA has done on the development of the EU Member State's security and defence capabilities. This is particularly important in a time of challenges for global security."

In working to enhance the relationship between the EDA and the SEDE subcommittee, Mr. Domecq said; “I believe that regular EDA participation at the SEDE meetings, as well as visits of Members of the SEDE Subcommittee to EDA, will improve transparency and information-exchange on EDA activities, at a time when European Parliament support in defence matters is key.” 

Members of the SEDE subcommittee also received presentations on some of the Agency’s capability projects and programmes, such as the Joint Deployable Exploitation and Analysis Laboratory (JDEAL) and the Multinational Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) Fleet (MMF).
 

More information:

• European Parliament Subcommittee for Security and Defence website

Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election is historical. Without any political experience, in defiance of the political establishment and the mainstream media, relying mostly on his own political instincts, he beat all the odds. Change is indeed coming to Washington, however, whether his presidency will be truly transformational remains to be seen. Here are my top 7 takeaways:

The most important dividing lines in the election were urban – rural, rich – poor and racial contrasts. Note that from the top ten richest states per capita only two went for Trump (rarely populated Alaska and North Dakota, rich because of petrol-industry), while he won all of the ten poorest states except for Maine. There are scores of indicators pointing at the economic hardships of rural America, here I would like to point to just one: while between 2002-2006 50 percent of the new jobs that were created in the US were dispersed throughout 120 counties– out of the 3143 -, between 2010 - 2014 the same figure dropped to 73 counties in and around only a handful of major cities, mostly in blue states.

Although the democrats lost, the American electoral map is changing: none-white votes, especially the Latino ones will matter more and more. The problem for the Clinton campaign was that the democrats forgot about their traditional hinterland: rural – industrial America, “the rustbelt”, populated mostly still by working class-whites. The democrat’s agenda of too much focus on minorities and liberal social issues has failed, and will fail again if more attention will not be given to the economic inequalities between classes and regions all across the board.
Trump will seek to balance between his radical right base and the republican establishment. Without the first he will lose popular support, without the latter he cannot govern. His first appointments and his backtracking on some major policy issues confirm this dual approach. However, with so conflicting ideas and world views in the White House, we can expect intensified conflicts to come within the Trump administration and the Republicans.

It will not be the end of America’s global engagement, but expect change. To potential adversaries such as China and Russia, the glass is half full, half empty: likely less American ‘World policing’, less scrutiny on human rights, but more problems on trade and arms buildup. There could be deeper cooperation with Russia on certain issues, but no one should set high hopes on a successful Reset 2.0. There is one thing Donald Trump likes better than making good deals: win. And the list of issues for potential conflict with President Putin or with China is long. As for NATO, it will not be dissolved, but if Europeans will not deliver much more on defense, instead of the other organization in Brussels, it will be just another organization.

Trump’s election does not mean much good for multilateralism, for trade liberalization, for arms control, for fighting climate change, for open door on migration – signature issues of the Obama presidency. Many of these issues will spark strong debates with European partners. A Trump administration might be good news for parties striving to gain back powers from Brussels into purely national hands. But how far would this nationalist wave go in terms of European disintegration? And what would this mean for Europe’s power structure and for small European countries? Complex questions with highly uncertain answers.

The success of Trump’s presidency will be measured primarily on how he tackles economic inequality, the urban-rural dived in American society, its budget deficit, the challenges of illegal immigration and terrorism. If President Trump would succeed in making progress on some of these issues, that would make America stronger, but the foundation of the transatlantic Alliance stronger.

Language Undefined Tag: USelectionsTrump