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C’est une victoire en demi-teinte pour le Premier ministre indien sortant Narendra Modi. Pour la première fois depuis 2014, l’homme fort du gouvernement et son parti du BJP perdent la majorité absolue qu’ils détenaient au Parlement. Avec une nette progression dans les suffrages, l’opposition, et notamment le parti du Congrès national indien, évoque une « défaite morale » pour Modi et le BJP. Le dénouement de ces 77 jours de scrutin soulève ainsi plusieurs interrogations. Comment se sont déroulées ces élections ? Quels sont les multiples enseignements à tirer des résultats ? Peut-il y avoir une influence sur les positions indiennes à l’international ? Éléments de réponse avec Olivier Da Lage, chercheur associé à l’IRIS, spécialiste de l’Inde et de la péninsule arabique.

Dans quel contexte politique, économique et social se sont tenues les élections législatives indiennes ? Avec 970 millions d’électeurs attendus, plus grandes élections de l’histoire, comment s’est déroulé ce suffrage ?

Le scrutin proprement dit s’est déroulé en sept phases qui se sont étirées du 19 avril au 1er juin, soit 77 jours au total ! Cette durée a été exceptionnellement longue, même s’il est habituel en Inde que le vote se déroule en plusieurs phases, compte tenu de l’étendue du pays. Cela permet de déployer dans les différents États à tour de rôle les forces de sécurités chargées de veiller à ce que les opérations électorales se déroulent dans l’ordre. Mais cette extension de la durée de vote a pour effet de modifier la tonalité de la campagne au fur et à mesure de l’avancement dans le temps. Certaines candidatures ne sont pas encore déclarées que les opérations sont déjà achevées dans d’autres régions du pays. Les thèmes de campagne évoluent aussi en fonction du ressenti des débuts de la campagne (et bien sûr également des thématiques propres à chaque région). Tout bien considéré, les élections proprement dites se sont déroulées dans le calme et dans l’ordre, si l’on excepte quelques violences localisées et qui sont habituelles dans l’histoire électorale du pays. Mais les opérations ont également été marquées par une vive défiance de l’opposition à l’encontre de la Commission électorale, un organe constitutionnel composé de trois personnes nommées par le gouvernement et qui venait d’être remanié par le Premier ministre Narendra Modi. Le fait que la Commission électorale, contrairement à l’habitude, ait refusé de publier les chiffres absolus de la participation électorale, se contentant de donner des pourcentages – avant de changer de position, abruptement et sans explication, a ajouté à la confusion, tout comme le refus de confirmer, jusqu’à l’avant-veille du dépouillement que les bulletins envoyés par la poste seraient décomptés avant de commencer à compter les résultats des machines à voter. En fin de campagne et au début des opérations de vote, le BJP du Premier ministre Narendra Modi était donné grand gagnant et annonçait même viser 400 sièges sur les 543 que compte la Lok Sabha (Assemblée nationale). Dans la législature sortante, le BJP disposait de la majorité absolue avec 303 sièges, rendant superflue l’alliance NDA avec des partis supplétifs qui n’étaient pas en mesure de peser sur les décisions. Mais au fil du temps, les échos du terrain ont montré que les candidats du BJP rencontraient plus de difficultés que prévu et que la «magie » Modi ne fonctionnait plus aussi bien que par le passé. Or, toute la campagne du BJP s’est faite sur la personnalité du Premier ministre et son programme pour les cinq ans à venir était très général et se résumait largement au slogan « Modi ki guarantee » (la garantie de Modi). On a alors pu sentir une nervosité croissante dans les rangs de la majorité sortante tandis que dans ses meetings et ses interviews, le Premier ministre a accusé le Parti du congrès d’emprunter son programme à la Ligue musulmane pakistanaise et de vouloir dépouiller les femmes hindoues de leurs bijoux en or pour les donner aux musulmans. Alors que la campagne de Modi en 2014 s’était déroulée sur le thème de la bonne gouvernance et celle de 2019 sur la sécurité aux frontières du pays, en 2024, il a donné le sentiment de s’en prendre aux 200 millions de musulmans indiens, tout en s’en défendant par ailleurs.

Annoncé grand favori pour un troisième mandat, quelle analyse peut-on faire des résultats de Narendra Modi et du Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ? Quels sont les autres enseignements à tirer de ces élections ?

Le BJP a perdu la majorité absolue qu’il détenait depuis 2014 et renforcée en 2019. Il a dû sentir le risque, car en cours de campagne, il a ressuscité l’Alliance NDA qui était virtuellement inexistante depuis 2014. Peu auparavant, le président du BJP avait pourtant laissé entendre qu’avec le temps, il n’y aurait plus qu’un seul parti en Inde : le BJP. Avec ses alliés, y compris l’imprévisible chef du gouvernement du Bihar Nitish Kumar qui avait été à l’origine de l’alliance des 28 partis d’oppositions réunis au sein de la coalition INDIA avant de rejoindre à la coalition au pouvoir par un revirement dont il a le secret, Narendra Modi peut toujours compter sur une majorité au parlement. Mais d’une part, ses alliés vont probablement monnayer cher leur soutien et limiter les volontés que l’on prête à Narendra Modi de transformer en profondeur l’Inde pour en faire un État officiellement hindou, d’autre part, cette victoire à la Pyrrhus est un camouflet personnel pour le chef du gouvernement sortant dont le pouvoir était aussi personnalisé. Pour sa part, le parti du Congrès échappe à l’effacement qui menaçait et sa stratégie électorale d’alliance avec des partis régionaux s’est avérée payante pour lui comme pour ses partenaires, ce qui permet à l’opposition de revenir en force à la Lok Sabha, même si elle y demeure minoritaire.

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Quelle peut être l’influence de ces élections sur les ambitions internationales indiennes ?

Probablement aucune. D'un côté, la politique étrangère qu'aurait menée un gouvernement dirigé par le parti du Congrès n'aurait guère été très différente de celle conduite par Narendra Modi, d'autre part, le fait que l'opposition ait obtenu un score plus qu'honorable peut être présenté comme un démenti à ceux qui affirmaient que la « plus grande démocratie du monde » n'était plus qu'une « autocratie électorale ». Mais surtout, les réalités géopolitiques n'ont pas changé avec les résultats publiés ce 4 juin : la Chine est toujours la voisine de l'Inde et sa puissance perçue comme une menace à la fois par l'Inde et les pays occidentaux. Ces derniers vont donc continuer de courtiser New Delhi et pour sa part, l'Inde poursuivra sa politique de « multialignement » qui consiste à rester amie avec la Russie et Israël tout en étant proche des pays arabes et des Occidentaux. Jusqu'à présent, cette politique de funambulisme a plutôt réussi à l'Inde dont le taux de croissance (8,2 % pour l'exercice budgétaire 2023-2024) suscite bien des convoitises commerciales chez ses partenaires, notamment occidentaux.

 

Summary and Key Points: The conflict in Ukraine has escalated as the U.S. and other Western countries have authorized Ukraine to strike high-value military targets inside Russia using advanced weaponry such as the M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS.

-This new phase in the conflict saw Ukraine successfully targeting Russian S-300 and S-400 air defense systems near Belgorod. Ukrainian forces continue to inflict heavy casualties on Russian troops, with recent reports indicating significant losses in personnel and equipment.

-Despite high casualties, Russia's ability to rapidly regenerate its forces, as demonstrated historically, poses a significant challenge. Ukraine and its Western allies must consider this force generation capability in their strategies.

Ukraine Authorized to Strike Inside Russia as Conflict Escalates

The fighting across Ukraine rages on as the Russian military continues with its offensive in the east toward the city of Kharkiv.

In response to the renewed Russian attack, the United States has allowed Ukraine to take off the gloves and use powerful weaponry inside Russia.

A New Phase in the Conflict

The war has entered a new phase after the United States, followed by several other Western countries, gave the green light to Ukraine to engage high-value military targets inside Russia with weapon systems provided as part of a security assistance package.

The Ukrainian forces can now use their highly effective M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) to launch precise munition and take out targets within Russia.

In the latest such strike, a Ukrainian M142 HIMARS took out two S-300 or S-400 air defense systems and their supporting vehicles near the Russian city of Belgorod, more than 30 miles from the border with Ukraine. These are the best air defense systems the Russian military has at its disposal and mark a significant loss. In the coming weeks, such incidents are expected to rise as the Ukrainians become more adept at identifying and tracking high-value targets within Russia.

Mounting Casualties and Russia’s Force Generation

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces continue to inflict heavy casualties on their Russian adversaries. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, the Russian forces lost 1,280 troops killed, wounded, or captured, 69 support vehicles and fuel trucks,40 artillery pieces, 39 unmanned aerial systems, including several Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones, 16 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 12 main battle tanks, 12 pieces of special equipment, 3 anti-aircraft weapon systems, and 2 cruise missiles.

These casualties are quite heavy for 24 hours of fighting. Indeed, losing more than a battalion worth of men, as well as almost 200 pieces of heavy equipment in a day could be debilitating for military forces without Russia’s force generation capacity. But this is the capability that hasn’t only kept Moscow in the war but could eventually turn the tide on its favor.

On February 24, 2022, Moscow launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine with approximately 200,000 regular and paramilitary troops. More than 23 months later, Russian casualties are estimated between 320,000 and 515,000. Even at the lowest end of the casualty spectrum, the Kremlin has lost more than 150 percent of its initial invasion force. Nevertheless, today, the Russian military has approximately 470,000 troops in Ukraine and has mobilized many more within Russia. This ability to regenerate forces at rapid intervals has historically been an ace up Moscow’s sleeve. Russia is vast. Russian leaders have understood that they can buy time by giving up territory and sacrificing hundreds of thousands of troops, like in the Napoleonic Wars and World War Two.

Ukraine and the West should take Russia’s force generation ability into close consideration.

About the Author 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

Suivez en DIRECT sur FRANCE 24 la cérémonie internationale du 80e anniversaire du débarquement en Normandie à Omaha Beach en présence notamment d'Emmanuel Macron, Charles III, Joe Biden et Volodymyr Zelensky.

Suivez sur FRANCE 24 les commémorations du 80e anniversaire du débarquement en Normandie : la cérémonie britannique de Ver-sur-Mer en présence de Charles III, la cérémonie canadienne avec Justin Trudeau et les hommages au cimetière américain de Colleville-sur-Mer avec Joe Biden.

Summary: Recent months have seen several tragic military aircraft incidents. An F-35 Lightning II and an F-16 Fighting Falcon both crashed in New Mexico, while a vintage Supermarine Spitfire from the UK's Battle of Britain Memorial Flight (BBMF) crashed in Lincolnshire, killing Squadron Leader Mark Long.

-The UK's Defence Accident Investigation Branch is investigating the cause of the Spitfire crash.

-This incident has reignited debates about the safety of flying vintage warbirds, following other recent crashes involving World War II-era aircraft.

-The BBMF has grounded its fleet, including Spitfires, Hurricanes, and a Lancaster bomber, pending investigation outcomes.

Vintage Spitfire Crash: UK's Battle of Britain Memorial Flight Under Scrutiny

The past few months have been a dark time for military aircraft. An F-35 Lightning II crashed last weekend after an F-16 Fighting Falcon crashed just weeks earlier – both in New Mexico. The F-35 crash overshadowed the loss of a military aircraft in the UK, this one involving a vintage Supermarine Spitfire.

On May 25, the World War II-era aircraft – part of the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight – went down in Lincolnshire near Royal Air Force Coningsby. Squadron Leader Mark Long, who was piloting the Spitfire, was killed. The UK's Defence Accident Investigation Branch has put out a request for images and video to help determine what led to the crash.

"An investigation into the cause of this tragic event has now begun," RAF Group Captain Robbie Lees, commander of the display air wing, said in a statement. "The RAF will not be offering any comment on the accident until that investigation has concluded."

The Battle of Britain Memorial Flight maintains a small fleet of vintage aircraft, including two Hawker Hurricanes, an Avro Lancaster four-engine bomber, a C-47 Dakota, and around half a dozen of the remaining airworthy Spitfires. All of its aircraft have been grounded, and its visitors center is also currently closed. It is unclear when the group’s flights will resume.

Another Old Warbird Down

Though this is the first fatal loss involving a BBMF aircraft since the unit was formed in 1957, some aviation experts are again questioning whether such flights should continue, given the age of the aircraft.

Last month, a World War II-era Douglas C-54 crashed in Alaska, killing two. In November 2022, a B-17 bomber and a P-63 Kingcobra fighter plane collided at the Wings Over Dallas air show, leaving six people dead. That followed another crash involving a B-17 in October 2019, when the bomber crashed at Bradley International Airport in Connecticut. Seven of the 13 people on board were killed, while the other six and one more on the ground were injured.

The Spitfire – The D-Day Warbird

As reported by 19FortyFive.com, the Spitfire is most closely associated with the Battle of Britain, even though the Hawker Hurricane shot down more enemy planes over the course of that campaign in 1940.

The Spitfire’s close association with that campaign might have been helped by the 1968 film Battle of Britain – far more Spitfires were available for filming, and few scenes showed the Hurricanes. As a result, many now believe that the Spitfire was the dominant fighter used at the time.

The Spitfire went on to play a significant role in the D-Day landings 80 years ago, with a total of 55 squadrons supporting the invasion of Normandy.

About the Author: Peter Suciu 

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Summary and Key Points: Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree made dubious claims over the weekend that the Houthi rebels had successfully targeted the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in the Red Sea. Following these claims, images purportedly showing damage to the U.S. Navy's Nimitz-class aircraft carrier circulated online.

-However, these images were quickly debunked as they actually depicted the Russian Navy's Admiral Kuznetsov, currently undergoing extensive repairs in Murmansk.

-The Pentagon has denied any damage to the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. The incident highlights ongoing issues with misinformation on social media, particularly on X (formerly Twitter).

Houthi Claims of Attacking Aircraft Carrier USS Eisenhower Debunked

We'll be the first to suggest it: Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree should be dubbed the Lying Yemeni – as his claims are as dubious as those of the now infamous "Baghdad Bob" more than two decades ago. Iraqi Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf earned the nickname "Baghdad Bob," as well as "Comical Ali," for his outrageous claims made during the U.S.-led coalition invasion of Iraq in 2003.

While Saree hasn't declared anything quite as outlandish as "The infidels are committing suicide by the hundreds on the gates of Baghdad," the Houthi rebel mouthpiece claimed twice over the past weekend that the Iranian-back insurgent group had successfully targeted the United States Navy's Nimitz-class nuclear-powered supercarrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) in the Red Sea. . 

Following those claims, images were posted online that purported to show damage to the U.S. Navy's warship, the second oldest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in service. An example is at the very top of this post. 

"CONFIRMED: uss eisenhower (pictured docked for repairs in souda bay) hit and severely damaged by multiple houthi ballistic missiles. judging by extensive tent city developing on the flight deck, we assess it is unlikely eisenhower will return to service in the foreseeable future," noted @iAmTheWarax on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

That Image Is Wrong on So Many Levels: No Aircraft Carrier Damage 

The image shared on X isn't actually of USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, and it isn't even a Nimitz-class carrier.

Moreover, it isn't even a nuclear-powered vessel, and that's because as many users on social media quickly pointed out, it is the Russian Navy flagship Admiral Kuznetsov, which as The National Interest has reported on multiple occasions is undergoing an odyssey of a refit at the 35th Ship Repair Plant in Murmansk since 2018.

About the only part of the post that was believable and fairly accurate is that the carrier (Admiral Kuznetsov) is unlikely to "return to service in the foreseeable future."

Misinformation and disinformation remain serious problems on X, and the issue has gotten worse since tech entrepreneur Elon Musk acquired the service in late 2022 for $44 billion. Many of the guardrails that attempted to quickly dispel such disinformation have been removed, and it was only thanks to more qualified users that the warship was quickly identified. Now in fairness, it is possible that the original post was made in jest, but it is still hard to tell for certain.

Another giveaway that the photo was a fake was that it suggested that CVN-69 was in Souda Bay on the Greek island of Crete. Here is where there was an inkling of truth – notably that the carrier and elements of her strike group did make a port visit to the port earlier this spring. However, anyone with knowledge of geography or access to a map would quickly point out that it would require transiting the Suez Canal and sailing approximately 4,000 nautical miles. It would take days, and perhaps a week for the carrier to reach that point.

Finally, if the warship had taken any damage and needed repairs it would have almost certainly traveled to Camp Lemonnier, the only permanent U.S. military in Africa.

The Pentagon has denied that the carrier took any damage.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit for main image X. All others are Creative Commons. 

The United States has the power to halt ongoing atrocities in El Fasher.

Summary: The success of the D-Day invasion of Normandy was pivotal in World War II, but it almost ended in failure.

-Issues such as missed landing spots, strong currents, and heavy German defenses, especially at Omaha Beach, caused significant casualties and nearly led to the operation's abandonment.

-Had D-Day failed, it would have boosted German morale, potentially shifted Nazi forces to the Eastern Front, and put immense strain on British resources.

-The failure could have prompted significant political repercussions in the U.S., including possible resignations and an election loss for President Roosevelt.

-The failure of D-Day would have dramatically altered the course of world history.

What If D-Day Had Failed? The Potential Consequences for World War II

What if the D-Day invasion of Normandy had failed?

What if U.S. forces had gained no footing in France?

Would the Soviets have been able to defeat Nazi Germany alone? If not, then what would a Nazi-controlled Europe have looked like? And if the Soviets had prevailed, how much of the European continent would they have claimed for themselves?  How far would the Iron Curtain have fallen? 

According to the Department of Defense, D-Day almost was a failure.

“While the ultimate goal of liberating France and ousting the Germans did happen, a lot went wrong on D-Day – especially for the Americans, who were the first to launch the invasion,” the DOD website reads. “Thousands of U.S. paratroopers died during their drop behind enemy lines at Utah Beach, having been shot out of the sky by enemy fire or weighed down and drowned in flooded marshlands. Many also missed their landing spots, as did the seaborne forces, which landed more than a mile from their intended destination, thanks to strong currents.”

Further problems awaited the Allies at Omaha Beach.

“The Omaha offensive turned out to be the bloodiest of the day, largely in part because Army intelligence underestimated the German stronghold there. Rough surf caused huge problems for the amphibious tanks launched at sea; only two of 29 made it to shore, while many of the infantrymen who stormed off the boats were gunned down by Germans. Gen. Omar Bradley, who led the Omaha forces, nearly considered abandoning the operation. Somehow, though, both sectors of U.S. troops managed to advance their positions for overall success.

Historians have spent decades considering what failure on D-Day might have meant.

“Had D-Day failed, it would have been particularly costly for Britain. They were already running out of manpower, particularly the Army,” Professor Gary Sheffield told the BBC. 

“Had D-Day failed, it would have given a major boost to morale in Germany,” Professor Soenke Neitzel added. “The German people had expected this to be the decisive battle, and if they could beat the Allies, they might be able to win the war. I think Hitler would have withdrawn his core division from the West to fight on the Eastern Front.”

In America, failure might have had significant repercussions, too. “Had D-Day failed, there would have been an agonizing reappraisal among the Americans who had pushed for a cross-channel invasion. Eisenhower would almost certainly have offered his resignation; it would almost certainly have had to be accepted. It’s also possible that US President Roosevelt could have lost the November 1944 election, so there could have been a change in administrations,” Professor Dennis Showalter said. 

D-Day was significant. Had the results of D-Day been different, world history would have changed in a big way.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor with over 1,000 articles published. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.  

All images are Creative Commons. 

Cela relève des provocations permanentes entre Belgrade et Pristina. La Serbie arrête des ressortissants du Kosovo soupçonnés d'avoir commis des crimes de guerre, en « réponse » à l'arrestation, pour le même motif, de Serbes du Kosovo...

- Le fil de l'Info / Kosovo, Serbie, Radio Slobodna Evropa, Kosovo juger crimes de guerres, Défense, police et justice, Bombardements OTAN

La 17e édition du Championnat d’Europe (Euro 2024) de l’UEFA se déroulera du 14 juin au 14 juillet 2024 en Allemagne. Les équipes qualifiées pour cette compétition affûtent déjà leurs armes.

While MEPs urgently called for measures to address disinformation risks and foreign influence attempts before the EU elections, according to a letter dated 9 April and seen by Euractiv, the European Commission responded just two days before the vote, stating the responsibility lies with tech platforms.

China's military appears to be intensifying its efforts to recruit current and former Western fighter pilots, employing new and more intricate tactics to snare Western expertise.

A dozen EU member states have made a joint push to move forward the accession process for candidates Ukraine and Moldova and formally kickstart membership talks by the end of June, according to a letter to the Belgian EU presidency, seen by Euractiv.

Der Pressedienst des Parlaments organisiert täglich Briefings für Medienschaffende, um über die Europawahl vom 6. bis 9. Juni zu informieren.

Quelle : © Europäische Union, 2024 - EP

A Parlament sajtószolgálata naponta tart tájékoztatókat a sajtónak a június 6-9-i európai parlamenti választásokkal kapcsolatos információkról.

Forrás : © Európai Unió, 2024 - EP

Parliament’s press service will organise daily briefings for media, in physical presence and remotely, to provide information about the 6-9 June European elections.

Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

Parliament’s press service will organise daily briefings for media, in physical presence and remotely, to provide information about the 6-9 June European elections.

Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

EU elections in France have been focused on national issues, with very little room for European conversations, as the far-right holds on to a significant lead in voting intentions, and looks to turn the election into an ‘anti-Macron referendum’.

DÉCRYPTAGE - Le président entame ce mercredi trois jours de cérémonies XXL pour l’anniversaire du D-Day.