Defense`s Feeds

Air Force One
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The USA’s fleet of 2 “VC-25” 747-200 derivatives is unique in several respects. It’s more popularly known as the latest incarnation of the “Air Force One” fleet that transports the President of the United States around the world, though the planes themselves only acquire the “Air Force One” call sign when the President is on board. The VC-25 can also serve as a secondary command post, thanks to a suite of advanced communications and electronics gear that’s both highly encrypted, and protected from the Electro-Magnetic Pulse effects of nuclear detonations. The 89th Airlift Wing operates them from Andrews AFB, MD.

During the Cold War, if humanity’s time on earth had been cut short, at least one of the orders would almost certainly have come from a 707-based “VC-137” predecessor. The 747-based VC-25s were ordered in 1985, and added to the fleet in 1990, where they continue to serve in the same roles, flying an average of nearly 200,000 miles per year. Of course, maintenance and upgrades are still required, such as the 2002/2003 upgrades that let the President address the nation from on board, new defensive systems, etc…

Contracts & Key Events FY 2012 – 2020

Wichita plant closure; USAF considers replacement; Various R&D and upgrades.

NG on Air Force One
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The 89th Airlift Wing at Joint Base Andrews, MD flies the VC-25s. Unless otherwise noted, all contracts are issued by the 727th ACSG/PKB at Tinker Air Force Base, OK to Boeing in Wichita, KS. Eventually, Boeing’s move out of Wichita also moved these services to Oklahoma City, OK.

April 24/20: Hangar Complex Clark Construction Group won a $78.2 million contract modification, which provides for the construction of the VC-25B hangar complex at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. The VC-25B, the next Air Force One, is a program to design, test and deliver two aircraft replacing the current VC-25A. The V-25B is to be retrofitted so that the president of the USA can run the federal government, including commanding and controlling the US military, while in flight. As such, detailed information about the aircraft’s components and capabilities are classified or tightly controlled. The aircraft also is likely to include missile warning systems and defensive technologies, such as chaff dispensing systems and directional infrared countermeasures. Work will be performed in Camp Springs, Maryland, and provides for the construction of a hangar complex, an aircraft access taxiway/parking apron, associated lighting, engine run-up pads and a hydrant refueling system with storage tanks. Additional requirements include, but are not limited to, site preparation, wetland/stream mitigation, storm water management, a parking lot, and a fire detection and suppression system. Expected completion will be by April 2022.

Oct 31/14: R&D. Boeing Aerospace Operations in Oklahoma City, OK receives a $9.3 million cost-plus-incentive-fee modification under the VC-25 Avionics Modernization Program. Boeing will actually subcontract the support necessary to provide one-time engineering services, and associated hardware, in support of this research and development effort.

Work will be performed at Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and San Antonio, Texas, and is expected to be completed by May 30, 2018. Fiscal 2014 research, development, test and evaluation funds in the amount of $9,261,602 are being re-aligned at the time of award from funding previously obligated under the contract. Air Force Life Cycle Management Center, Tinker Air Force Base, Oklahoma, is the contracting activity (FA8106-07-C-0001, PO 0212).

Aug 14/14: R&D. A $6.666 million contract modification for a VC-25 fuel tank Nitrogen Generation System Study, in order to comply with FAA Final Rule FAA-2005-22997 concerning fuel tank flammability. The total cumulative face value of the contract, including the referenced modification is now $316.9 million. All funds are committed immediately, using FY 2014 USAF O&M funds.

Work will be performed at Oklahoma City, OK, and Long Beach, CA, and is expected to be complete by May 11/15. The USAF Life Cycle Management Center/WLKLA at Tinker AFB, OK manages the contract (FA8106-07-C-0001, PO 0148).

Sept 13/13: Upgrades. Boeing Aerospace Operations Inc. in Oklahoma City, OK receives an $8.5 million contract modification to work on upgrading 1 of the 2 VC-25As, in order to bring it into compliance with Federal Aviation Agency Airworthiness Directive 2008-23-09. All funds are committed immediately.

Basically, they’re going to replace the aircraft body’s AN-26 thermal/acoustic insulation layer, which falls short of fire resistance requirements in the FAA’s judgement. This contract involves any design and manufacture of the replacement. Installation will happen concurrently with heavy maintenance efforts under a separate contract.

Work will be performed at Oklahoma City, OK and San Antonio, TX, with an expected completion date of Oct 31/16 (FA8106-07-C-0001, P00135). See also: FAA Airworthiness Directive 2008-23-09.

Sept 9/13: Replacement. The USAF Life Cycle Management Center releases a sources sought survey regarding potential replacements for the VC-25.

It isn’t the first time. Back in 2007, USAF Air Mobility Command issued a similar solicitation, which included Airbus’ A380. The difference is time. The VC-25s are expected to hit their planned flight hour service life figures in 2017, and so the question is becoming more urgent. The USAF’s goal at this stage is a new plane in service by 2021, but they’ll need to issue the development contract within a couple of years if they want to make that happen. Sources: Gannett’s Air Force Times, Sept 9/13.

Jan 31/12: Support. Boeing in Wichita, KS receives a $47.9 million firm-fixed-price, time-and-material cost reimbursable and cost-plus-incentive-fee contract modification for VC-25 Option Year III support. The work was performed in Wichita, KS until Dec 21/11 (FA8106-09-C-0005, PO 0039).

Jan 4/12: Wichita lineman, farewell. Boeing confirmed it’s going to close its Wichita, KS plant by the end of 2013. Some of the 2,160+ Wichita jobs will be moved; others will be cut, beginning in Q3 2012. Future aircraft maintenance, modification and support work will be placed at the Boeing facility in San Antonio, TX, which currently handles KC-135 and KC-10 maintenance and upgrade work. Boeing | NY Times | Congressman Mike Pompeo [R-KS-4, not happy].

Wichita closure

FY 2010 – 2011

How much to upgrade 1 aircraft? Support contracts; Dept. of ‘Don’t do this again’.

VC-25: Oops.
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Sept 30/11: Support. L-3 Link Simulation & Training in Arlington, TX receives an $8.2 million firm-fixed-price contract modification for the for the option III, IV, and V periods in support of the C-20B (Learjet III) and VC-25A Mission Communication System (MCS), which allows for ground and airborne, secure and non-secure communications between aircraft and ground stations.

Work will include program management, systems engineering, technical support for configuration management, review of service reports, requests for technical information, preliminary engineering investigations, field technical representatives, systems integration lab support and operation, and the requirement to maintain drawings and technical data files. This contract also provides for a 24-hour contact for in-flight emergencies, emergency inquiries, on-site support and operation of the test benches located at Andrews AFB including requests for software, firmware, and hardware changes including development and test, engineering feasibility studies, analysis and investigations of Material Deficiency Reports and mishaps; and requirements for technical orders, preliminary engineering change proposals, modifications, upgrades and enhancements including design, testing, integration, kit purchases and spares. The OC-ALCIGKSKB at Tinker AFB, OK manages this contract (FA8106-08-C-0005, PO 0065).

Jan 31/11: Deep maintenance. A $134 million contract modification for the heavy maintenance for 2011 VC-25 aircraft 9000 at Andrews AFB, MD. At this time, $86.8 million has been committed. This announcement has a different modification number, but looked like it could be a duplicate or revision of the Nov 30/10 award. On Feb 23/11, the USAF got back to DID with a clarification:

“We checked this question with the contracting folks — These are two modifications to the base-line contract. Each happen to be valued $134M. When combined, these two modifications are valued at $268M.”

Plus the initial $35.6 million award (q.v. Oct 29/10), makes $303.6 million for in-depth work on 1 aircraft. That’s slightly more than an airline would pay for a new 747-8 (FA8106-09-C-0005, PO 0023).

Jan 25/11: Support. A $13.2 million contract modification to provide Option Year II support for 1 of 2 VC-25 special air mission aircraft at Joint Base Andrews, MD. At this time, the entire amount has been committed (FA8106-09-C-0005, PO 0022).

Nov 30/10: Deep maintenance. A $134 million contract modification, covering the 2011 heavy maintenance effort scheduled for VC-25 tail number 92-9000. At this time, $19.4 million has been committed (FA8106-09-C-0005, PO 0020).

Oct 29/10: Deep maintenance. A $35.6 million contract to provide “heavy maintenance for the 2011 VC-25 aircraft 9000,” with all funds committed (FA8106-09-C-0005, PO 0019).

Jan 28/10: Support. A $35.4 million contract to continue providing contractor support for the USAF’s fleet of 2 VC-25A aircraft. At this time, $8.2 million has been committed (FA8106-09-C-0005, PO 0005).

May 27/09: Bad idea. Well, that didn’t go as planned. The White House wanted an updated picture of a VC-25, with New York in the background. They told some local officials – but not the mayor, or the citizens. Who saw a jumbo jet flying low with fighter jets behind it, and thought it was another 9/11 style terrorist attack. NBC New York:

“A Pentagon official confirmed that while the Presidential Airlift Group, which is based out of Andrews Air Force Base, did inform the FAA and New York City officials about this morning’s aerial photo op, they also told both agencies not to inform the public about it.The NYPD confirmed that statement.”

Louis Caldera, Director of the White House Military Office, ends up losing his job over the flyby. Cost for the photo shoot? $328,835. See also CNN Politics.

NY State of Mind

Additional Readings

Readers with corrections, comments, or information to contribute are encouraged to contact DID’s Founding Editor, Joe Katzman. We understand the industry – you will only be publicly recognized if you tell us that it’s OK to do so.

• Fox News (March 24/10) – Pentagon Develops Plan to Buy New Air Force One Fleet

• DID (Oct 21/07) – USAF Talking to Airbus About A380 Air Force 1, C-5 Replacement? Airbus bowed out, leaving Boeing to decide between its 747-8 and 787 as a future bid.

EDA’s Steering Board has green-lit the launch of a new research project aimed at studying ways and means of improving the operational outfit and equipment of Armed Forces operating in extreme cold and icy weather conditions.  

Picture : Austrian Armed Forces

Military missions and operations in cold climate are particularly challenging as they demand from the troops a great deal of physical, operational and mental resilience. Experience from exercises in extreme cold has shown that a considerable number of the soldiers suffer from cold weather injuries (e.g. frostbite, hypothermia, chilblains, immersion foot) and negative energy balance which can highly compromise their performances. An in-depth knowledge of the risk factors for developing cold-related injuries and their impact on the troops’ safety and effectiveness is thus critical to sustain operations in the north.  

Against this backdrop, EDA has just launched a new R&T project to study this problem in greater detail to ascertain consequences and possible countermoves. Under the lead of the Netherlands, three more countries are participating: France, Sweden and Norway (the latter is no formal EDA Member State but has concluded an Administrative Agreement with the Agency). The overall objective is to contribute to improving the European capability of operating in arctic/cold environments by developing tools to reduce the risk of soldiers developing cold-weather-related injuries and enhance war fighter performance.  

The project has a duration of three to four years.
 

New territory

It is the first R&T project in EDA to study Cold Weather Operations on a European level. It will be important to identify the standards and procedures are currently being applied in the various Member States. The project will therefore identify national variations in the regulations and threshold values for body temperature, safe working duration and respective garment requirements and develop an interpretation guide to translate the generic advice of the main existing standard in this field, ISO-11079, and its extension to national clothing & equipment items. It will also review and measure individual variation in thermal stress response and nutritional demands in cold environments. Finally, the intention is also to identify the added value of wearable sensor technologies for improved personalised advice.  

The Cold Weather Operations project is one of several R&T activities under the CapTech CBRN and Human Factors. 
 

More information:

• EDA project page: CapTech CBRN and Human Factors

Americas

The 354th Fighter Wing has taken delivery of its first two F-35A fighters at Eielson Air Force Base in Alaska on April 21. The jets flew non-stop from Forth Worth, Texas with mid-air refueling from two KC-135s from the 168th Wing. “This first aircraft is a milestone,” said Col. Benjamin Bishop, the 354th Fighter Wing commander. “Making the first aircraft arrival possible has been a long path, but it’s also just the first step in a journey that will continue at Eielson Air Force Base for decades to come.” By the end of 2021, 54 F-35s will make up two squadrons at Eielson, which is near Fairbanks.

The Pentagon announced that it is awarding $133 million to increase domestic production of N95 masks by over 39 million over the next 90 days. Under the contract, 3M will receive $76 million, O&M Halyward will receive $29 million and Honeywell will receive $27.4 million to make the masks, which have been in short supply since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. According to the Department of Defense, the investment is intended to ensure the United States government “gets dedicated long term industrial capacity to meet the needs of the nation.” 3M is contracted to provide 78 million units within six months, with an additional 13 million units per month by June, where O&M Halyward will add 25 million units within 6 months and an additional 12.5 million masks every month after. Under the contract Honeywell will add 38 million units within six months and 12 million units per month after.

Middle East & Africa

II Corps Consultants won a $68.7 deal for the Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning program. The Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning ensures Marines deploy with an operational understanding of the local military and partner cultures and regional dynamics relevant to the mission, with select Marines being language-enabled, in order to facilitate mission success. CAOCL’s designs, delivers, and manages programming throughout the education and training continuum, conducts research and assessments, and provides scientific, policy, and subject matter advising. It also serves as one of the three proponents for Language, Regional Expertise, and Culture (LREC)-related doctrine, organization, training, materiel, leadership, personnel, and facilities (DOTMLPF) issues throughout the Marine Corps as directed by the LREC Operational Advisory Group (OAG) Charter and the Marine Corps LREC Strategy. Work will take place in Virginia, Bahrain and Afghanistan. Expected completion date will be by April 2025.

Europe

Three Orion Unmanned Aerial Vehicles have been accepted by the Russian Ministry of Defense, JSC Kronshtadt Group said. General Designer of Kronshtadt, Nikolay Dolzhenkov, added that the aircraft will be modified for additional requirements that were not specified in the original contract. Orion is a Russian unmanned combat aerial vehicle developed by Kronshtadt Group. It can carry four bombs and four missiles and has maximum payload of 200 kg.

As health services across the world battle Coronavirus, NHS Wales is stepping up its defense against viruses of the technological kind. A new agreement with Thales will enable the NHS Wales Informatics Services (NWIS) team to protect vital systems from a surge in cyber-attacks by accessing Thales’s technical threat analysis service, a global centre of knowledge about the latest and emerging threats. According to Thales, the company will be providing the service to NHS Wales free of charge. Thales’s intelligence service makes available its intelligence, identification, computer virus spread monitoring, threat analysis and rapid response skills to healthcare systems across the world, now including NHS Wales.

Asia-Pacific

Guizhou Aviation Industry Corporation is expecting to fly a new variant of its JL-9 advanced jet trainer that is capable of operating from China’s aircraft carriers soon. The company announced recently that assembly is finished and the jet is being prepared for its maiden flight. It has been suggested that the new variant has removed the drag chute. While the Guizhou company did not elaborate on the project, it said in a separate statement in March that the goal was to “win a new victory in developing and producing the Naval Mountain Eagle,” and the statement came with a picture showing an aircraft carrier at sea, with a Naval Mountain Eagle flying above the carrier and J-15 fighter jets parked on the carrier’s flight deck.

Today’s Video

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wK9jQsWcsU

Here’s my latest policy brief from the series on Russian strategic culture and leadership decision-making, written for a collaborative project organized by the Marshall Center with support from the Russia Strategy Initiative. This one is on stability in Russia’s political elite during Vladimir Putin’s rule. As with the previous ones, I am posting the full text here with permission from the Marshall Center. Please go to the newly updated Marshall Center website if you would prefer to read a PDF version.

Executive Summary

• Russia’s political elite has undergone relatively little change under Vladimir Putin’s rule. Only sixty people have been ranked twentieth or higher at least once between 2000 and 2019 in the annual Nezavisimaya Gazeta list of the most politically influential Russians. Eighteen people have appeared on every list during this period. The greatest shift in elite composition occurred between 2007 and 2008, with smaller shifts around the presidential elections of 2004 and 2012.
• Most of the political elite originate in the government bureaucracy in Moscow or St. Petersburg or came to their positions of influence through personal ties to Vladimir Putin, either in St. Petersburg or in the security services. Only ten percent came to power through electoral politics; another ten percent are businessmen who made their money independently of any connections to Vladimir Putin.
• The elite is fairly evenly divided between individuals who have political influence solely because of their positions in government and individuals who have influence outside of their official role. People in the first group generally drop off the list quickly after leaving government or being demoted, and people in the second group tend to retain influence regardless of their position at any given time and remain influential for extended periods, even after departing government service.

Introduction

For most of the post-Soviet period, the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta has conducted a monthly survey of Russian political experts. This survey asks its respondents to rank the 100 most politically influential Russians in the previous month. Throughout this period, the newspaper has also published an annual ranking,1 based on the average rank of those mentioned during the previous calendar year. These data can be used to identify the most politically influential members of the Russian elite during the twenty years of Vladimir Putin’s rule.2

Characteristics of the Data Set

The dataset used includes all individuals identified in Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s survey who ranked at least twentieth at some point during the period from 2000 to 2019. Since the annual rankings run through 2019, they do not include changes in elite composition resulting from the government reshuffle that took place in January 2020. Such changes will be reflected in the next annual ranking, which is expected to be published in early 2021. This group is composed of just sixty individuals. Although most of those named are politicians or senior government officials, eight are well-connected businessmen or executives of state corporations. Only six individuals came to power through electoral politics. Two are religious leaders. Only three are women. Almost all built their careers in Moscow or St. Petersburg, with only three originally coming from the regions.

The dataset shows each individual’s average annual ranking if they were in the top 100 that year. In the graphs below, gaps indicate periods when the individual in question fell out of the top 100. The primary characteristic of the list is the extraordinary longevity of the people on it. Eighteen people have appeared in the top 100 every year from 2000 through 2019. Nine of them also appeared in the 1999 list, indicating that their political careers extend at least to the late Yeltsin period.3 Only four people have returned to the top 100 after spending more than a year off the list.

Members of the Putin-era political elite can be characterized in various ways. Many analysts have divided them according to their background, as having emerged from the security services or from Vladimir Putin’s circles in St. Petersburg or from private businesses established in the 1990s.4 Others have divided them according to the nature of their position.5 These are very useful ways to categorize, therefore both background and position are mentioned in the discussion below. However, I take a different starting point and categorize the elite on the basis of when they attracted the notice of expert analysts of the Russian political scene as being influential in that scene. This undoubtedly creates some artifacts. Some individuals undoubtedly flew under the radar for some period of time before attracting the notice of experts. Most importantly, individuals who may be influential advisors to senior leaders but stay in the shadows may be undervalued or missed entirely. Nevertheless, given that the main goal of this study is to examine elite stability and change, a primary focus on the chronology of the subjects’ appearance on the scene is more appropriate than one that puts the main focus on the subjects’ background or role in the political system.

Survivors of the Yeltsin Era

Ten members of the political elite can be characterized as long-term survivors of the Yeltsin era. These are individuals who have appeared on the list since at least 1999, which is the earliest year for which data is currently available. Strikingly, half of the group is still considered among the top thirty most politically influential people in Russia in 2019, twenty years later. This group of Council and former Governor of St. Petersburg Valentina Matvienko; and current Presidential Envoy of to the North Caucasus region and former Prosecutor General, Yuri Chaika. With the exception of Putin and Matvienko, these are people who have made careers as appointed senior officials rather than elected politicians.

The group of survivors also includes a number of people who have made their careers primarily in the business world, including such prominent oligarchs as Roman Abramovich and Vagit Alekperov. Vladimir Potanin is also included in the graphic as an oligarch known for his ability to maneuver through changes in Russia’s political scene and remain influential, although he is not part of the dataset, having never reached the top twenty in influence in any year measured. Although Anatolii Chubais was a prominent government official earlier in his career, during the period being analyzed here he has made his career in the world of state corporations, first as head of Russia’s electricity monopoly and then as head of the Rosnanotech state corporation. All four of these individuals have seen a decline in their influence in recent years, reflecting a general decline in influence among oligarchs in favor of bureaucratic officials.

The two other members of this group deserve a brief mention. Aleksandr Zhukov is a survivor who has played a variety of roles in government, including as a leading member of the State Duma, as the head of the Russian Olympic committee that organized the Sochi Winter Olympics, and as a deputy prime minister. Like the oligarchs, his influence has declined sharply in recent years. Finally, there is the case of Aleksandr Voloshin. Throughout Putin’s first term as President, Voloshin was the head of the presidential administration and considered one of the most powerful people in Russia. More interestingly, unlike other holdovers from the Yeltsin team described in the following section, he has consistently remained on the list of politically influential Russians since his resignation in 2003, albeit in relatively low positions.

Yeltsin-Era Politicians Who Did Not Last

A second group of members of the political elite were also survivors of the Yeltsin era, but have not retained their influence. These nine individuals are a fairly diverse group. Five of the nine were senior officials in the central government who stepped down at various points between 2001 and 2011 and thereafter disappeared from political life in Russia. These include Viktor Gerashchenko, who headed the Russian Central Bank until 2002; Aleksandr Veshniakov, who headed Russia’s Central Election Commission until 2007; and Mikhail Kasianov, who served as prime minister during Putin’s first term as president. There are also two former government ministers: Mikhail Zurabov, who headed the pension fund from 1999 to 2004 and was thereafter health minister until 2007 and Viktor Khristenko, who was deputy prime minister in both Yeltsin’s last year as president and in Putin’s first term and thereafter the minister of industry until 2012.

The other four members of this group can be described as more eclectic. Aleksei II’s influence came from his position as the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church. As we will see below, after his death in 2008, his successor retained a roughly similar level of influence. Yuri Luzhkov rapidly lost influence after his removal from his post as mayor of Moscow in 2010. The two businessmen in this group had very different trajectories. Mikhail Khodorkovsky was, for a time, the most influential private businessman in Russia and remained influential even after his arrest in 2003, but he disappears from the list after his trial and imprisonment in 2005. Finally, Mikhail Fridman is somewhat different from the rest of this group. He is a businessman whose influence has gradually faded over time. In this, he is most similar to Vladimir Potanin in the previous group (the “survivors”), with the main difference being that the degree of his fade has taken him out of not only the top twenty, but the top 100, in recent years. Other than Fridman, the members of this group are all notable for having derived their influence from their positions, rather than their personal power. Unlike several people in the survivor group, their influence did not outlast their dismissal from their government positions.

Putin’s Original Team

When Vladimir Putin became Russia’s president in 2000, he quickly installed his own team of loyalists. With only one exception, these twelve individuals who first appeared on the list in 2000 have remained highly influential players in Russian politics over the next twenty years. The majority of the team are connected to Putin, either through their work in the security services or from Putin’s time working in the St. Petersburg mayor’s office in the 1990s.

The security service contingent includes Sergei Ivanov, Igor Sechin, Nikolai Patrushev, and Vladimir Ustinov. The first three people on this list have been among the core members of Putin’s inner circle throughout his time in power. One key difference when compared with the group of individuals that did not last is that the security service contingent’s influence has remained high regardless of the various positions they have held. Thus, Igor Sechin has variously served as deputy head of the presidential administration, deputy prime minister (while Putin was prime minister), and head of the Rosneft state oil corporation. His influence did not decrease when he departed from his government position in 2012 and he remains one of the ten most politically influential people in Russia to the present day.

Similarly, Nikolai Patrushev has been highly influential, both as FSB director and as secretary of the Security Council, despite the latter organization’s relatively limited formal power. Sergei Ivanov was highly influential first as defense minister, then as deputy prime minister, and finally as head of the presidential administration. His influence has faded in the last three years after his departure from the presidential administration, but the fact that he remains on the list despite having virtually no significant official role in Russian politics speaks to his personal connection to the president. Vladimir Ustinov is a somewhat different case. Although he played a powerful role in Russian politics while serving as prosecutor general, his removal from that position in 2006 was interpreted as a political defeat and resulted in a sharp decline in his perceived influence, even while he was still serving as Minister of Justice. After his dismissal from that position in 2008 and his transfer to the role of presidential representative to the Southern Federal District, he disappeared from the rankings entirely.

The St. Petersburg team includes Dmitry Medvedev, Aleksei Kudrin, German Gref, Dmitry Kozak, and Boris Gryzlov. These are also figures who have exhibited political influence regardless of the position they held. Medvedev served variously as deputy head and then head of the presidential administration, first deputy prime minister, president, and prime minister, retaining a position among the ten most influential Russian political figures since his appointment as head of the presidential administration in late 2003. Gref and Kudrin survived their departures from positions as minister for economic development and trade and minister of finance, respectively. Gref has retained influence in his role as head of Sberbank, while Kudrin remained highly influential despite having no major government or business position from 2011 until his appointment as head of the Accounts Chamber in 2018. Boris Gryzlov was highly influential as minister of internal affairs and as speaker of the State Duma, but disappeared from the list after stepping down as speaker in 2011. He returned in 2017, however, despite having a fairly low-level position as the president’s representative to the contact group on the Ukraine conflict.

Dmitry Kozak has held a wide variety of positions over the last twenty years, both in Moscow and in the regions, while remaining highly influential. His peak of influence was in Putin’s first two terms in office, when he held senior positions in the presidential administration and as presidential representative to the Southern Federal District. Note that his high level of influence in the latter position contrasts with the case of Vladimir Ustinov, who dropped off the influence list after replacing Kozak in this position. This strongly suggests that Kozak’s influence during this period was related to his personal connections, rather than the office he held.

Three other members of the team are not connected to Putin through prior service. Vladislav Surkov and Aleksei Gromov were already working in the central government in the 1990s but first rose to positions of prominence under Putin. Surkov served in the presidential administration until 2011, then briefly as head of the government executive office before becoming a personal advisor to Putin. Although his influence declined in the latter position and he is likely to drop out of the rankings entirely in 2020 after his very public resignation in February, he remained on the list throughout the period of the study. Gromov was the president’s press secretary in his first two terms, followed by twelve years in the presidential administration as deputy and first deputy chief of staff. His influence has steadily increased over the years, especially once he moved into the presidential administration. Finally, Oleg Deripaska is an outlier among this group, as his role is in business rather than government. Although he is linked more closely to Putin than some of the businessmen who appeared in the other groups, his influence has declined in the last decade as power has shifted away from people in business and toward government officials. People Who Became Influential During Putin’s First Term

Individuals who joined the list of politically influential figures between 2001 and 2004 fall into very similar categories as Putin’s original team. Once again, the majority are figures whose background is in the security services or in the St. Petersburg government, while a few rose through other channels. Unlike Putin’s original team, few of these individuals have the political capital to have influence separate from their positions.

Siloviki, political figures who rose to power in the security services, such as Mikhail Fradkov, Rashid Nurgaliev, and Viktor Ivanov, are good examples of this tendency. Fradkov, for example, appeared in relatively low positions on the list as head of the tax police in 2001 and 2002, then disappeared from the list entirely while serving as Russia’s representative to the European Union in 2003. He then spent four years as one of the most politically influential people in Russia while serving as prime minister, before again disappearing from the list entirely after losing that position. He returned to the list in 2013 while serving as head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, but disappeared after being dismissed from that position in 2016. Similarly, Rashid Nurgaliev was highly influential while serving as minister of internal affairs from 2004 to 2011, but disappeared from the list immediately after stepping down from that position. Viktor Ivanov spent several years as an assistant to President Putin and then several more as director of the Federal Narcotics Service. He disappeared from the list after being dismissed from the latter position in early 2016.

The political figures who came out of St. Petersburg are a relatively diverse group. Among them are two who have remained on the list throughout the period since their initial appearance in 2001–2002. Sergei Mironov served for many years as the speaker of the Federation Council, although he retained a certain amount of influence after moving to the State Duma in 2012. Aleksei Miller has remained among the twenty-five most politically influential Russians continuously since 2003 while serving as the head of Gazprom, Russia’s natural gas monopoly. Vladimir Iakunin was on the list only during the period from 2005 to 2015, when he headed the Russian Railroad state corporation. His immediate disappearance after his departure from that position in 2015 suggests that his influence derived from his position, rather than his personal power. Viktor Zubkov first made the list while running the Financial Monitoring Committee and reached higher positions on it, having served as prime minister and first deputy prime minister. He dropped off the list after losing the latter position in 2012.

The remaining four people in this group have had highly varied careers. Igor Shuvalov has served in a variety of roles in the government, including as the government’s chief of staff, as an assistant to the president, and as first deputy prime minister. He was most highly ranked on Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s list in the latter period, although he retained some influence even after departing that position in 2018. Aleksandr Khloponin is one of the few people on the overall list who appeared on the list while holding a position outside of Moscow. He was, for many years, the governor of Krasnoyarsk Krai and then served as deputy prime minister. The peak of his influence was in the period 2010–2014, when he concurrently served as deputy prime minister and presidential envoy to the North Caucasus Federal District. Even during this period, his highest position in the survey was twentieth in 2010, highlighting the extent to which Moscowbased political figures dominate the rankings.

Dmitry Rogozin first came to prominence as one of the few elected national-level politicians on this list. He was one of the leaders of the right-wing Rodina party until 2005 and was thus one of the few influential politicians with an independent power base. However, he dropped off the list after departing the party due to conflicts with other leaders. He returned to a position of influence in 2012 after being appointed deputy prime minister in charge of the defense and space industries. Finally, Sergei Pugachev is unique, in that he only appeared on the list for two years, but in very high positions. He was a businessman with close ties to Putin, but quickly fell out of favor after refusing to reinvest his capital in Russia. He has since renounced his Russian citizenship and now lives in France.

People Who Became Influential During Putin’s Second Term

A fairly large group—thirteen people—became politically influential during Putin’s second term. Although a few of these people appeared on the list early in the term, most joined or rose to high rankings in 2007 or 2008. Individuals who joined the political elite during this period fall into two major categories, with a few outliers.

Five people in this set had close ties with Putin, mostly dating to their schooling in the 1970s and 1980s or through working together in the security services in the 1980s and 1990s. All five of these individuals rose to highly influential positions at around the same time and have remained near the top of the list throughout Putin’s presidency. Aleksandr Bastrykin was a university classmate of Putin. He worked at the Ministry of Justice and in the Prosecutor-General’s office before being appointed in 2007 as head of the Investigative Committee (IC), an anti-corruption agency within the Prosecutor-General’s office. His influence increased further in 2011, when the IC became an independent agency directly subordinate to the president.

Sergei Naryshkin has served in a variety of roles over the years, including chief of staff to the prime minister, deputy prime minister, head of the presidential administration, chair of the State Duma and, most recently, director of the Foreign Intelligence Service. His influence has always come less from his position and more from his close ties to Vladimir Putin, whom he has known since the early 1980s, when they studied together in the Soviet security service (KGB) schools in Leningrad. He was perceived as having been appointed head of the presidential administration under Dmitry Medvedev in order to ensure Medvedev’s loyalty to Putin.6 Aleksandr Bortnikov spent his entire career in the KGB or its successor agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB), primarily in the Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) office. He was appointed deputy director of the FSB in 2004 and became its head in 2008. Although all three are influential because of their positions, they achieved these positions through a combination of their previous work and their connections to Vladimir Putin.

On the other hand, Sergei Chemezov and Yuri Kovalchuk have attained their positions almost entirely through their connections to Putin. Chemezov worked with Putin in the KGB in East Germany in the 1980s and again in the Presidential Property Office in Moscow in the late 1990s. Since Putin became president, Chemezov has held senior positions in a variety of state corporations, beginning with Rosoboronexport (the state defense export company) and since 2007 as general director of Rostec, which, under his leadership, has become the dominant player in Russia’s defense industry. Although Yuri Kovalchuk did not go to school or work with Putin, he has had close ties to the president dating back to the 1990s. Like Chemezov, he has never worked in the Russian government, having instead used his personal ties to Putin to amass a large fortune as the head of Bank Rossiia, a position that has led him to be labeled as “Putin’s personal banker.” 

A second set of five people rose to political influence by rising through the ranks of their agencies. Sergei Lavrov is perhaps the archetype of this figure. He has served as foreign minister since 2004, having previously served as a deputy foreign minister and as Russia’s representative to the United Nations. Although he was, for many years, described as someone who is a civil servant and chief implementer rather than a member of Putin’s inner circle, his longevity in his post has gradually translated into greater influence on decision-making. 

Tatiana Golikova rose through the ranks of the Ministry of Finance, becoming Deputy Finance Minister in the late 1990s. She was then appointed as Minister of Health and Social Development in 2007, going from that role to the position of Chair of the Accounts Chamber in 2013 and then becoming Deputy Prime Minister for Social Policy in 2018. Similarly, Elvira Nabiullina rose through the ranks at the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade, becoming the head of the ministry in 2007. She has retained influence since transitioning to her current position as head of Russia’s Central Bank in 2013.

Arkady Dvorkovich rose through the Finance Ministry and the Ministry for Economic Development, having developed close ties to German Gref in the latter ministry. He first rose to prominence as then-President Dmitry Medvedev’s chief economic advisor and then as deputy prime minister once Medvedev assumed the position of Prime Minister in 2012. He dropped off the list of politically influential Russians after losing that position in 2018, and now serves as president of the World Chess Federation. Finally, Patriarch Kirill rose through the hierarchy of the Russian Orthodox Church and headed the Church’s Department for External Church Relations from 1989 until his election as Patriarch in 2009, following Patriarch Aleksei’s death.

He first appeared on the list of influential people in 2007, when it became increasingly clear that he was likely to become the next patriarch, even as Aleksei’s health was declining. All five of these individuals are influential because of their positions, rather than through personal ties.

Only two members of this group attained their positions through the political process, both initially in regions outside of Moscow. Sergei Sobianin has had a long career in electoral politics at the regional level, first winning election in 1991 as mayor of a small town in Siberia, gradually rising to higher positions in the region, including a five-year stint as governor of Tiumen. He moved to Moscow in 2005 to serve as head of the presidential administration, and has remained a fixture in the top twenty most influential Russians since 2007. He has been the mayor of Moscow since 2010.

Viacheslav Volodin won his first election even earlier, serving on the Saratov city council beginning in 1990. He represented Saratov in the State Duma beginning in 1999, serving as the Duma’s deputy speaker. He succeeded Sobianin as head of the government executive office in 2010 and has remained on the top twenty list since then, serving as deputy head of the presidential administration and, since 2016, as chair of the State Duma.

Finally, Anatoly Serdiukov is unique among this group in that he achieved his influence by virtue of his ties to someone in the top elite other than Putin. He appears on the list in 2007, when he moved from his previous position as head of the Federal Tax Service to Defense Minister. He dropped off the list in 2012, when he was dismissed from that position. His appointment was linked to his connection to Viktor Zubkov, as he was married to Zubkov’s daughter. Despite constant criticism from members of the military, he remained in the position until his wife filed for divorce in 2012, at which point he was quickly accused of corruption and removed from his position.

People Who Became Influential in the Last 12 Years

Although much has been written about efforts by Russia’s senior leadership to renew Russia’s political elite, very few people have joined the ranks of the most influential Russians since 2008. In fact, only one person who joined the list while Dmitry Medvedev was president has become highly influential, while another four rose to top positions between Putin’s return to the presidency in 2012 and the end of 2019. As we saw in the previous section, a few others appeared on the list earlier, but only became highly influential after 2012. The five people in this group come from a variety of backgrounds, though most share the characteristic of rising to positions of influence through the ranks of the organizations they now lead, rather than achieving that position through personal connections to Putin or members of Putin’s inner circle. Dmitry Peskov rose through the diplomatic service and then through the presidential press office before becoming Putin’s press secretary in 2008. Anton Siluanov rose through the finance ministry, replacing the previous minister in late 2011. Anton Vaino rose through the presidential administration and has headed it since 2016. Vladimir Kolokoltsev served in various positions in the interior ministry, followed by a term as the Moscow police commissioner, before being appointed to head the interior ministry in 2012. Viktor Zolotov is the one exception in this group because he has been personally close to Putin since serving as a bodyguard to St. Petersburg mayor Anatolii Sobchak in the 1990s. Although he only appeared on the list of influential Russians in 2016, he headed the presidential security service from the start of Putin’s tenure in 2000 until his appointment as head of the newly established National Guard in 2016. He thus serves as a good example of the type of individual who was missed by expert rankings because of his tendency to keep out of the limelight.

Inflection Points

Although Russia’s political elite has experienced relatively little change over the last twenty years, there have been a few key moments of substantial renewal, most immediately before or after presidential elections. After the initial introduction of Putin’s team in 2000–2001, an initial shift took place in 2003–2004. This was a period of consolidation, during which holdovers from the Yeltsin administration such as Kasyanov and Voloshin left their positions and the influence of independent businessmen was largely eliminated after the arrest of Khodorkovsky. These figures’ residual influence meant that they remained on the list, though in relatively low positions, for some time thereafter. However, starting at this point, all senior officials were either members of Putin’s circle or technocrats.

A much bigger elite transition took place in 2007, with the departure of Veshniakov, Fradkov, and Zurabov and the decline in influence of Chubais, Gref, Zhukov, and Viktor Ivanov. At the same time, a large number of new people appeared on the list, including Chemezov, Bortnikov, Bastrykin, Kovalchuk, Golikova, Nabiullina, Dvorkovich, and Serdiukov. In addition, Naryshkin, Zubkov, Iakunin, and Shuvalov, who had all been on the list previously, first attained high levels of influence in 2007 or 2008. These changes occurred as part of the transition to what became known as the “tandemocracy,” a period during which Medvedev served as president while Putin was prime minister.

There was a second major transition around the 2012 presidential election, with the departures of Zubkov, Gryzlov, Khristenko, Nurgaliev, and Serdiukov and the decline of Kudrin and Surkov. At the same time, Shoigu, Bastrykin, Volodin, and Peskov became highly influential for the first time while Siluanov, Rogozin, and Kolokoltsev either first appeared on the list or returned after a lengthy absence. This date marked the consolidation of the conservative turn in Russian politics, with security officials in the ascendance and economic modernizers relegated to secondary roles.

Putin’s third term was characterized largely by stability, with only a few significant shifts in influence. There were early signs of a generational shift, although few younger officials had yet reached positions of highest influence by the end of 2019, as highlighted by the dearth of people in the final group discussed above. Although a big government shakeup took place in January 2020, initial monthly polling suggests that this will result primarily in a reshuffling, with potentially limited impact on the composition of the top elite beyond the addition of the new prime minister. The shift to a new generation is coming, but the highest level still consists primarily of the people who have been with Putin since the early days of his rule. This will likely remain the case at least until the next presidential election in 2024.

Conclusion

The small number of people represented in the elite suggests a high level of elite continuity, which has allowed the regime to remain remarkably stable over a twenty-year period. Regime stability can be fleeting and authoritarian regimes, in particular, can shift from the appearance of eternal stability to collapse in a brief period. Nevertheless, the level of elite continuity in Putin’s Russia has allowed for relatively high level of policy consistency. While Putin’s team certainly has its share of tensions, everyone in his inner circle understands how the others operate.

The expert survey data clearly show that Russia’s Putin-era political elite includes two types of officials. Members of the first group have influence because of their roles or positions in government, while members of the second group have influence independently of their positions because of their ties to Vladimir Putin. Those in the second group tend to remain influential even when they are no longer in positions of power, while those in the first group drop out of the rankings as soon as they step down from their official role. This finding suggests that the number of people with real power may be even smaller than the sixty people represented in the data set, as only the second group has lasting influence at the highest levels. It also suggests that the members of the elite who were displaced in the government turnover of January 2020 will have different fates. People who have close ties to Putin, such as Dmitry Medvedev, will remain influential, while those who have had power because of their roles in government, such as Surkov, are likely to disappear.

Notes

1 The most recent annual rankings were published in Dmitri Orlov, “100 ведущих политиков России в 2019 году,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 1, 2020, http://www.ng.ru/ideas/2020-01-13/7_7766_people.html.

2 The question of how well an expert survey of this type reflects actual power dynamics in Russia is a valid one. Because the main goal of this study is to examine political influence, ratings by Russian experts on domestic politics are likely to be a fairly accurate representation, especially because the survey used a consistent methodology throughout the period under study.

3 “1999 год. 100 ведущих политиков России.” https://ru.telegram.one/CorruptionTV/1499.

4 Olga Kryshtanovskaya and Stephen White, “Putin’s Militocracy,” Post-Soviet Affairs, 19(4):289-306, 2003.

5 Tatiana Stanovaya, “Пять путинских элит на фоне транзита,” Carnegie Moscow Center, February 27, 2020. https://carnegie.ru/2020/02/27/ru-pub-81158.

6 Guy Faulconbridge, Michael Stott, “Medvedev’s Kremlin chiefs are Putin men,” Reuters, May 13, 2008. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-cabinet-kremlin/medvedevs-kremlin-chiefs-are-putin-men-idUSL1323497720080513.

BPC Mistral (Antilles et Guyane), BPC Dixmude (Réunion) et BPC Tonnerre (Corse) sont mobilisés.

Tag: BPCOpération Résilience

Americas

Timken Gears and Services won a $76.2 million contract modification to exercise options for main reduction gear shipsets for DDG-51 or Arleigh Burke Class guided-missile destroyers. The DDG 51 Arleigh Burke Class is a multi-mission warship. It features an advanced anti-submarine warfare system, the AEGIS combat system, the Vertical Launching System, two embarked SH-60 helicopters along with advanced anti-aircraft missiles and land-attack missiles. The main reduction gears transmit the power from two main propulsion gas turbines to the propulsion shaft. Each DDG 51 Class destroyer has two gear assemblies, one for each propulsion shaft. The DDG 51-Class guided-missile destroyer is a multi-mission surface combatant with 67 delivered ships, and 21 more are currently under contract. Work will take place in Missouri, California, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Delaware and Wisconsin. Work is expected to be finished by November 2023.

The US Air Force has decided to focus on Raytheon’s design for the Long-Range Standoff Weapon program. Elizabeth Thorn, LRSO’s program manager said the decision is not a down-select. Lockheed Martin and Raytheon were given Technology Maturation and Risk contracts for the program in 2017. “We are reframing our relationship with Lockheed Martin to focus on specific technology maturation we believe either has future applicability for the final LRSO design or will reduce overall program risk,” Thorn said. The LRSO is designed to be a nuclear-armed cruise missile to replace the AGM-86.

Middle East & Africa

Iraq became the latest country to consider acquiring the Russian-made S-400 Triumf, local news reports. The country’s Parliamentary Security and Defense committee had submitted a report to the Iraqi prime minister’s office recommending the acquisition of the S-400. The country had previously announced in January that it would be examining potential offerings from China, Russia, and Ukraine. The acquisition will have to await approval of the country’s prime minister, with the post currently vacant. Former director of the country’s National Intelligence Service Mustafa al-Khadimi is currently the prime minister designate and is negotiating with other parties to form a coalition government.

Iran now has armed versions of its Ababil-3 UAV. This was revealed during a ceremony held to mark the delivery of three types of unmanned aircraft to the military. The Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics released photographs showing a hangar at the Aerospace Industries Organization facility in Isfahan with 11 Ababil-3s, one of which was carrying a television-guided munition on a hardpoint under a wing. This appeared to be a member of the Ghaem family of small-guided bombs that has previously been seen on Mohajer-6 UAVs. Iranian television showed an Ababil-3 with a different livery apparently carrying out a precision air strike against an old tank using a munition labelled as a Ghaem. The MODAFL cited Defense Minister Amir Hatami as saying the Ababil-3 has a range of 150 km.

Europe

The German government has approved the procurement of the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and EA-18G Growler to partially satisfy its Tornado replacement requirement, national media has reported. German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has told the US government that Berlin has given clearance for the Luftwaffe to acquire 45 Super Hornet and Growler aircraft as part of its wider plans to replace 90 Panavia Tornado Interdiction and Strike (IDS)/Electronic Combat Reconnaissance (ECR) aircraft with 85 new platforms from 2025. The 30 Super Hornet multirole and 15 Growler electronic attack (EA) jets would enable the Luftwaffe to fulfil its airborne nuclear strike and EA requirements within the required timeframe,

Asia-Pacific

The Turkish defense company Aselsan announced that it had signed a new contract with Kazakhstan to supply its Stabilized Advanced Remote Weapon Platform (SARP)-Dual remote-controlled weapon station (RCWS). The Turkish company has strong links with Kazakhstan via its Kazakhstan Aselsan Engineering subsidiary, which was established to increase ‘manufacturing capacity in order to meet Kazakhstan’s military and civilian needs’. No details were provided about the delivery schedule, the size of the order, the value of the contract or the platforms the RWCSs are set to be installed upon. In November 2016 Kazakhstan had awarded the company a contract for an undisclosed number of SARP RWCSs, deliveries of which began the following year. However, these are believed to have been single weapon systems.

Today’s Video

Watch: NEW SORYU SUBMARINES ARE THE FIRST TO HAVE LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES MAKING THEM DEADLY SILENT !

Americas

Huntington Ingalls Industries won a $108 million contract modification to exercise options for the accomplishment of the planning yard services for the littoral combat in-service ships. The LCS is a high speed, agile, shallow draft, mission-focused surface combatant of the US Navy designed for operations in the littoral environment, yet fully capable of open ocean operations. It is a modular, reconfigurable ship designed to meet validated fleet requirements for anti-surface warfare (ASuW), anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and mine countermeasures (MCM) missions. The requirements under this contract include, but are not limited to ship installation drawings development; ship change document updates; operating cycle integration program management; work integration package engineering; type commander response; ship configuration logistics support information system support; configuration data management; research engineering and modeling; provisioned items order; cost and feasibility studies; integrated planning yard material support; provisioning technical documentation; naval ships engineering drawing repository system input and data management; interface and coordination with regional maintenance centers and fleet entities; design alteration and modification development; review and tracing; managing related class ship selected record documents; and hull, mechanical and electrical engineering standardization efforts.Work will take place in Virginia, Mississippi,California and Florida. Estimated completion will be by April 2021.

General Dynamics Electric Boat announced that it has delivered the nuclear-powered attack submarine Vermont to the Navy. The Vermont is the 19th submarine of the Virginia Class, which displace 7,835 tons, with a hull length of 377 feet and a diameter of 34 feet, and can carry eight masts, including a snorkel mast and high-data-rate satellite communication masts as well as a radar mast. The submarine is valued at $3 billion. “I am pleased to report that the Vermont has received some of the highest quality ratings in the history of the Virginia program. We wish Vermont and her crew a long and distinguished career in defense of our nation“, said Kevin Graney, President, General Dynamics Electric Boat, in a press release. Back in December the Navy awarded Electric Boat $22.2 billion for delivery of nine Virginia-class subs, and in January Lockheed Martin received $19.3 million to deliver masts for the boats.

Middle East & Africa

The first of 12 Sierra Nevada Corporation (SNC)-Embraer A-29 Super Tucano light attack turboprops for Nigeria made its maiden flight at the Florida production facility on April 17. With the successful first flight completed, the aircraft will now be fitted with its mission systems by SNC in Colorado ahead of final trials and the commencement of deliveries to the Nigerian Air Force in 2021. The milestone comes about 30 months after the US Department of Defense (DoD) contracted SNC to deliver the 12 aircraft to Nigeria for use in the fight against the Boko Haram Islamist group. With weapons, the total value of the deal was estimated to be approximately $600 million. Powered by a single 1,600 SHP Pratt & Whitney PT6A-68/3 turboprop engine, the Super Tucano carries two 12.7 mm machine guns (200 rounds each) in the wings and can be configured with additional underwing weaponry such as 20 mm cannon pods, additional 12.7 mm machine guns, rockets pods, precision-guided munitions, and/or ‘dumb’ bombs of up to 1,500 kg.

Europe

The Italian Army has placed an order with Leonardo for 15 AW169 helicopters. This is the second successful sale of the military variant. Italy’s Guardia di Finanza police agency was the first to order this variant back in 2018 with an order for 22. The procurement, disclosed by the country’s Ministry of Defense solidifies an earlier announcement made in January that the AW169M was to be bought to replace the army’s Bell AB 205, AB 212, and AB 412 LUHs, and to augment its Boeing CH-47F Chinook, NHIndustries NH90, AgustaWestland A129 helicopters. According to the procurement document, the deal with Leonardo, which is valued at $301 million, comprises delivery of two helicopters in a ‘commercial basic trainer’ configuration, as well as approval for the start of development of 15 new ‘advanced multirole’ configuration helicopters for the Italian Army.

Asia-Pacific

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian Navy emphasized that it remains combat-ready, mission-capable, and in full readiness, after 26 of its personnel were quarantined after testing positive for the coronavirus. “All missions for coastal and offshore security continue as before. Operational units are being maintained in readiness by following a 14-day quarantine routine to meet immediate contingencies, including assistance to civil authorities and friendly maritime neighbors“, said India’s Press Information Bureau. “Our naval assets continue to be mission-deployed in three dimensions, with all the networks and space assets functioning optimally,” it added.

Sankei News reports that Japan has created a working group of local and US aerospace companies for the development of the successor to the F-2 fighter. The report added that Britain lost the race for the joint development program as it wants to have the lead and Japan is unwilling to participate in joint development with other countries in the Tempest program. The F-2 is one of the main fighter jets used by the Air Self-Defense Force. According to government officials, about 10 Japanese companies, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., IHI Corp. and Toshiba Corp., will join the conference. Japan will ask three US companies, including Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co., to join the conference.

Today’s Video

Watch: Indian Defence Updates : Tejas Locked 1.6 Mach,Armata FRCV Offer,A330 MRTT,Chinese Marines In IOR

F-35A
(click to view full)

In December 2011, Japan picked Lockheed Martin’s new F-35A stealth fighter as its next fighter aircraft, to replace its aging F-4 “Kai” Phantom fleet. The F-35 was actually their 2nd choice.

Back in February 2006, Inside The Air Force (ITAF) reported that momentum was building within the USAF to sell the ultra-advanced F-22A Raptor abroad to trusted US allies, as a way of increasing numbers and production. Japan clearly wanted them, and the Raptor was a topic of diplomatic discussions in several venues, including a 2007 summit meeting. In the end, however, US politics denied export permission for downgraded export variants of the F-22, and its production line was terminated. That left Japan looking at other foreign “F-X” fighter options in the short term, while they considered a domestic stealth fighter design as their long-term project.

In the ensuing F-X competition, the F-35 Lightning II beat BAE’s Eurofighter Typhoon, as well as an upgraded F/A-18E Super Hornet from Boeing. Now Lockheed Martin has to deliver, and so will its Japanese partners. Will the F-35A’s price and program delays create problems in Japan? This article looks at the JASDF’s current force, its future options, and ongoing F-X developments.

The JASDF: Structure & Choices

F-4EJ “Kai(zen)”
(click to view full)

The Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) currently has 3 fighter jet models in its fleet: F-15J/F-15DJ Eagles, its F-4EJ “Kai” and RF-4EJ reconnaissance Phantom IIs, and the Mitsubishi F-2 – a larger, longer-range variant on the F-16C. The Mitsubishi F-1 entered service in 1978 and is still listed on the JASDF web site, but it has now been replaced by F-2s [1]. Now, 42 F-35As will begin to replace the 80-plane F-4 fleet, but that won’t be the end for Japan.

The JASDF introduced the F-4EJ in 1973. It currently serves mostly in anti-shipping and other “permitted” strike roles, though it can also be used for air defense and policing. The RF-4EJ reconnaissance version will be replaced by F-15Js with special pods, and Japan has indicated that they will begin retiring the rest of the F-4 fleet early in the 2010s.

Japan has top-tier manufacturing experience, but they also had a qualitative and quantitative problem. Japanese firms have already produced F-15Js under license, and designed and produced the Mitsubishi F-2 in conjunction with Lockheed Martin. The F-2 is larger than an F-16 and has more range, but its performance doesn’t compare to an F-15, and it costs nearly as much. The F-2s won’t be built in expected numbers, which means they cannot replace the F-4EJs and RF-4EJs.

J-20 Prototype
(click to view full)

The Japanese had important choices to make, and the 2010 tsunami sharpened that urgency by destroying 18 of Japan’s F-2 fighters. Then China pushed things to the next level, unveiling its J-20 twin-engine stealth fighter prototype.

The Phase 1 plan was for Japan to choose a future F-X fighter by the end of 2011, buy about 50, and begin receiving them in 2016. Meanwhile, Japanese industry is trying to figure out how to keep itself busy now that license production of F-15 components and F-2s is ending. The Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies’ proposal involves producing F-X fighters and their F-XX follow-on buy until 2028, and having some of those 100-120 planes replace existing F-15Js as well. That would be followed by a Japanese fighter design, to begin development by 2017 based in part on lessons learned from their ongoing ATD-X stealth technology demonstrator. Japan hopes to fly ATD-X in 2014-2016, and the SJAC’s idea was that its successor could enter production around 2028, as the foreign-designed F-X fighter line closed down.

When choosing their initial F-X buy, the Japanese had several options.

The Winner: F-35 Lightning II

F-35A test flight
(click to view full)

If stealth is desired, Lockheed Martin’s plane is considered a “second best” option to the F-22. While other contenders have sharply reduced their radar signature when compared to planes like the F-16, the F-35 is significantly ahead because it’s designed for stealth from the outset, including internal weapon bays. As China moved to introduce its own J-20 stealth fighter, that criterion seemed to eclipse all others in Japan’s thinking. “Joint Strike Fighters” also offer exceptional performance in the reconnaissance role, while its set partnership model smooths technology transfer issues. That transferred technology is very important to the Japanese, who are quietly working on stealth fighter concepts of their own. Finally, the F-35 will be widely used, offering commonality with key allies and ensuring a steady stream of upgrades without requiring steady Japanese investment.

On the negative side, the F-35’s single-engine design would be a concern during maritime combat air patrols, as it increases the odds of having an engine issue cause the complete loss of the fighter. Beyond that, the F-35’s industrial structure is largely set, its development delays could make on-time deliveries a problem, any early deliveries will cost well over $100 million per plane, and its declared status as a strike fighter clashes somewhat with Japan’s avowedly defensive posture.

Rising tensions in the area led Japan to conclude that it needed good ground-attack capabilities as an explicit requirement, and based on their mathematical analysis of submitted information, Japan concluded that the F-35A was more capable all around than other fighters with proven records. The choice was announced in December 2011, and agreement to buy up to 42 fighters was signed in June 2012.

Media reports aren’t completely precise, but they seem to suggest that Japanese F-35As could eventually fly with up to 40% Japanese manufactured content. Reports and documents indicate that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. will be involved in work on aircraft bodies, Mitsubishi Electric Corp. on mission-related avionics, and IHI Corp. on engines.

DDH-181 Hyuga & USN’s
LHD-2, post-tsunami
(click to view entire)

The F-35B’s STOVL (Short Take Off, Vertical Landing) capabilities might make it an especially valuable future option, as a defensive aircraft that could operate from dispersed land locations, rather than bases that are easily targeted by enemy missiles.

It has a shorter range than other variants, but Japan is also fielding 18DDH Hyuga Class helicopter carriers for roles like disaster response, and will soon field larger 22DDH Izumo Class ships. They’re called “helicopter destroyers,” because Japan is currently prohibited from operating aircraft carriers, but it should be noted that other countries are planning to operate F-35Bs from comparably-sized ships. This very fact may inhibit Japan from ordering the F-35B, despite its potential usefulness as a land-based fighter.

Japan had other options, too. They included:

Boeing: The Traditional Supplier

F-15Js
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Boeing and its predecessor firm McDonnell Douglas supplies the JASDF’s F-4s and F-15s. Their next-generation choices included:

Upgraded F-15s Japan could have chosen to go ahead and buy “kaizen” F-15Js at a comparable cost, possibly with the AESA APG-63v3 radar being fielded by Singapore. Additional capability boosts would come from attached pods like ReeceLight or SHARP for reconnaissance, or combination recon/targeting pods like LITENING or Lockheed’s Sniper ATP.

The concern in Japan is that this option could leave them without an air-to-air advantage against current PLAAF SU-30MKK aircraft, let alone potential future upgrades like the SU-35, or China’s J-20.

Boeing’s new F-15SE “Silent Eagle” appeared to be aimed directly at these concerns. It adds a number of important advances that will help it hold its own with currently-fielded fighters, and is optimized for the kinds of long-range, over-water combat patrols the JASDF requires. In full-stealth mode, its strike capability is sufficiently secondary that it need not raise alarm bells, but it’s still present.

While a combined F-15 Kai/ F-15SE buy appeared to be the easiest move, things did not work out that way. Boeing did not submit the F-15SE, and F-15 upgrades will have to be a separate, future issue for Japan. Instead, it submitted…

Super Hornet Int’l
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F/A-18Ei Super Hornet. The base for Boeing’s submission was the AN/APG-79 AESA radar equipped Block II model, and the F/A-18F model has already been sold to Australia. The “Super Hornet International Roadmap” is on the drawing board, adding improved radar signature, the ability to carry weapons in low-RCS underwing pods, better defensive systems, an advanced wide screen cockpit display, and more fuel capacity without increasing drag.

The other Super Hornet option for Japan would be even more exotic. Some of Australia’s Super Hornets are being fitted to receive electronic warfare equipment, which would allow conversion to EA-18G signals intercept and jamming fighters. That’s a unique capability, but Japan’s avowedly defensive posture makes it much less useful to them than it is to other countries.

Even with the EA-18G option, the Super Hornet was an odd bid choice. Beyond the electronic attack role, it’s less capable than the most current F-15 models, such as Singapore’s F-15SGs. Its main benefits relative to the F-35 and European options involved a low price in the $60 million range, the potential for significant license-production in Japan, and future commonality with Japan’s main defense partner, the US Navy.

Buy European

Eurofighter: Rising sun?
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The Eurofighter Typhoon or Dassault Rafale were seen as possibilities, and coupling them with the MBDA Meteor long-range air-air missile might have been very attractive, given Japan’s needs. Price is likely to be close to the F-35, and similar to the option of buying more F-15s.

Dassault Aviation declined to participate with its Rafale, and Saab’s single-engine JAS-39 Gripen NG wasn’t a contender, but Eurofighter campaigned hard. Their plane is a very capable twin-engine air superiority aircraft. Tranche 1 versions have very limited ground-attack capabilities that would satisfy “defensive-only” criteria, while the latest “Tranche 3” offers a good set of multi-role capabilities. The plane’s carriage of the long-range Meteor missile, and integrated IRST system that can find even stealth aircraft by their heat signatures, offer another pair of advantages over American contenders.

The Super Hornet raised questions of comparative capability relative to China’s new fighters, while industrial and technology sharing remain issues for the F-35, so the Eurofighter had a chance. Their platform did well, but Japan rated theoretical capability very highly, and their desk-bound mathematical analysis hurt Eurofighter. The Typhoon was seen as the most fuel-efficient plane, and its bid had the best industrial benefits for Japan. On the other hand, EADS and BAE had trouble meeting Japan’s purchase cost targets while giving Japanese firms all of that work, and picking it would have meant deviating from Japan’s strongly American industrial links and equipment infrastructure. That’s no small move, in a society that sets such store by deep industrial relationships.

What They Really Wanted: F-22s

No climbing Mt. Fuji
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F-22J-EX. The F-22 was at the top of Japan’s wish list, due to its unmatched aerial performance, high level of stealth, and twin-engine design. In February 2006, a Lockheed Martin official confirmed that a proposal to sell Japan F-22s in some form of downgraded “international variant” was working its way through the Air Force with the support of the Japanese government. At the time, it was “at the three- or four-star level” and among civilian decision-makers. The request was pursued at the highest levels of government, but the USA killed the fighter by refusing to export it.

Japan’s combination of long sea zones and growing rivalry with China make a long-range, twin-engine, supercruising andunprecedented stealthy interceptor with reconnaissance capabilities a natural choice. Leveraging existing Japanese partnerships with Lockheed and Boeing made it nearly irresistible. With it, Japan would have had unquestioned air superiority over its territory for the foreseeable future.

There were clear American advantages to a sale. The USAF originally intended to buy 700-800 F-22 fighters, but that was cut to 442, then 381, and finally to just over 180. That left USAF planners concerned, even as foreign projects like Russia & India’s PAK-FA/SU-50, and China’s J-20, prepared to challenge US air superiority. If upgrades and proliferation led to confirmed fighter overmatch against US aircraft within the next decade, an active F-22 production line would have had considerable strategic and financial value.

On the negative side, the F-22’s extensive capabilities made many in the USA very nervous risking security breaches of its electronic architecture, stealth aspects, or next-generation data links. Licensed Japanese production, a standard requirement for other Japanese fighter deals, would be unlikely – or extremely limited if allowed. The aircraft’s $137-160 million base flyaway cost also gives pause, since a Japanese buy would require significant and expensive changes to the plane’s electronics. Some estimates placed the cost of an F-22J at around $250 million per plane.

Japan never had a chance to find out, as political moves within the USA blocked all F-22 Raptor exports. The USA was left to support its shrunken fleet all by itself, which includes financing a very expensive set of electronics upgrades over the next several years.

Japan’s F-X: Contracts and Key Events 2015 – 2020

NG completes center fuselage

Getting ready…
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April 21/20: Successor Sankei News reports that Japan has created a working group of local and US aerospace companies for the development of the successor to the F-2 fighter. The report added that Britain lost the race for the joint development program as it wants to have the lead and Japan is unwilling to participate in joint development with other countries in the Tempest program. The F-2 is one of the main fighter jets used by the Air Self-Defense Force. According to government officials, about 10 Japanese companies, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., IHI Corp. and Toshiba Corp., will join the conference. Japan will ask three US companies, including Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co., to join the conference.

December 4/17: Program News Japan will conclude its Mitsubishi X-2 technology demonstrator aircraft program in March 2018. First flown in April 2016, the first two flights were conducted by manufacturer Mitsubishi before being handed over to the Future Fighter Program (FFP) at Japan’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA). Manger at the FFP, Hirofumi Doi, confirmed that 34 sorties have so far been conducted, and all issues regarding propulsion, the fuel system, and integration had been ironed out prior to the maiden flight. Doi did not confirm if the demonstrator aircraft will complete the 50 test flights originally scheduled, or what will happen to the aircraft once the program concludes. Tokyo will then assess the merits of its future fighter acquisition strategy. Options included developing a new fighter called the F-3 on its own, or developing a fighter with a foreign partner.

September 18/17: Issues among the Japanese consortium involved in F-35 Joint Strike Fighter production for Tokyo has led to aircraft assembly falling behind schedule. The industry team chosen—Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. was picked for final assembly and checkups, IHI Corp. for engine parts production and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. for radar parts production—was expected to have joined production of F-35s to be delivered to Japan in fiscal 2017 under the fiscal 2013 contract. However, both IHI Corp. and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. have yet to sign parts production subcontracts with the original equipment manufacturer, Pratt & Whitney and Northrop Grumman respectively. The board added that checks by the Defense Ministry’s Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency found the local companies’ manufacturing processes to be lacking.

June 29/17: Japan is considering a procurement of Kongsberg’s Joint Strike Missile (JSM) for its fleet of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters in what is being considered by analysts as “a big step forward in stand-off capability”. At present, Tokyo’s fighters are only equipped with anti-ship missiles, so an added air-to-surface missile strike capability would be welcomed as tensions in the region rise amid North Korean ballistic weapons testing and the controversial deployment of the THAAD missile defense system by the US in South Korea. However, Japan had previously resisted the purchase of air-to-ground munitions, in part not to offend sensibilities in Beijing and Pyongyang, and may now face further accusations of looking to pursue renewed imperial ambitions.

June 7/17: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has completed the first assembly of a F-35A in Japan. Unveiled at the firm’s Komaki South Final Assembly and Checkout (FACO) facility on Monday, the ceremony was attended by government officials from the US Department of Defense and Japanese Ministry of Defense as well as members from Mitsubishi and Lockheed Martin. F-35 Program Executive Officer. Adm. Mat Winter said the assembly of the first Japanese built F-35A “is a testament to the global nature of this program.” 38 of Japan’s 42 ordered F-35s will be assembled at MHI’s FACO facility.

August 23/16: With a national-record breaking defense budget on the cards for Japan next year, upgrades to increase the country’s air-superiority capabilities are being rolled out by the government. With Japan’s F-35 deployment not due until the end of 2017, plans are underway to upgrade and upgun its current F-15J fleet. Among the changes are plans to double the number of air-to-air missiles the F-15J can carry to 16 as well as an expansion of the jet’s lifespan.

July 1/16: Japan is to launch a tender in mid-July for its $40 billion fighter acquisition program which has been dubbed the F-3 fighter jet program. Sources close to the program have revealed that US giants Boeing and Lockheed Martin have already been invited to take part in the project alongside local manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. Adding to this, analysts say Japan’s preference for an aircraft that can operate closely with the US military, given close Washington-Tokyo ties, makes a non-US option a long-shot. Regardless, Saab AB and the Eurofighter consortium will none the less be looking for any opportunities to involve themselves in this mega bucks project.

April 25/16: Lockheed Martin has been awarded a $73.8 million contract for long lead materials, parts, components, and effort to maintain the planned production schedule for six low-rate initial production Lot 12 F-35A Lightning II aircraft as part of Japan’s procurement of the aircraft under the Foreign Military Sales program. Work is expected to be completed by December 2020. The first four of Japan’s planned 42 planes are in various stages of production at Lockheed Martin’s F-35 facility in Forth Worth, Texas while the remaining 38 Japanese aircraft will be assembled and delivered in Japan from Mitsubishi’s Nagoya factory.

February 18/16: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has started final assembly of their first domestically produced F-35A. Assembly has entered its final stages at the Komaki Minami plant, and it is expected they will have begun work on two of the fighters by the end of fiscal 2017. By 2020, this production will have increased to 16, and a total number to be manufactured in Japan is 38 out a fleet of 42. MHI will also be responsible for testing the jets stealth against radar. The experience gained by Mitsubishi in the development and manufacturing of the F-35 will help toward the development of Japan’s own next-generation stealth fighter, currently under development as part of the X-2 program.

December 11/15: Northrop Grumman has completed delivery of the center fuselage for Japan’s F-35 fighter, known as the AX-1. The center fuselage serves as the core structure for the 5th generation multi-role jet. Japan’s AX-1 is an F-35A jet which uses conventional take-off and landing. Japan has ordered 42 F-35s from Lockheed Martin. Three more center fuselages will be manufactured in the US, while the final 38 will be manufactured and assembled in Nagoya, Japan.

October 6/15: Northrop Grumman has completed the center fuselage for the Japanese Self Defense Forces’ first Joint Strike Fighter, forming the skeleton for the country’s first F-35A. The company manufactured the fuselage in California before shipping it to Japan for Final Check Out and Assembly. In total Japan has ordered 42 F-35As, with an initial order for six aircraft this year coming with a price tag of $827.4 million. The country selected the F-35 in December 2011, beating the Eurofighter Typhoon and an upgraded Super Hornet bid.

2013 – 2014

Expected costs keep rising; FACO agreement; MHI’s industrial deal goes sideways.

Aug 19/14: FY15. Japan’s Ministry of Defense intends to order 6 F-35As in FY 2015, and they’re asking for a YEN 124.9 billion ($1.21 billion) budget to do it.

Other major priority items include 3 long-range surveillance UAVs (YEN 54 billion) and new AEW planes (E-2D or E-737, YEN 58.8 billion). Sources: Reuters, “Japan looking to buy more stealth fighters in 2015: Nikkei”.

Aug 4/14: Industrial. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) was supposed to begin supplying F-35 rear fuselage sections for Japan and for other F-35 partners, but the government says that they’ll only subsidize Japanese production. Japan has already given MHI the YEN 63.9 billion yen ($623 million), as MHI is responsible for Japan’s Final Assembly and Check Out line (q.v. June 21/13), but the firm is worried that their lack of experience in competitive global aerospace markets will cause them to lose money on parts supplied for export. MHI wants another YEN 10 billion ($97.4 million) in subsidies, the government says “no,” and the parties remain deadlocked.

BAE was supposed to begin receiving MHI parts by 2015, but that isn’t going to happen. Japan’s F-35 deal may need to be amended, though one of Reuters’ unnamed sources say that “…if BAE can wait something could be worked out.” Meanwhile, IHI Corp. is building engine parts for Japanese F-35s and with Mitsubishi Electric Corp. is supplying electric components. Sources: Asahi Shimbun, “Mitsubishi Heavy Won’t Supply Parts for F-35 Fighter Project” | Reuters, “Mitsubishi Heavy’s F-35 Deal with BAE Caught In Japan Funding Spat – Sources.”

July 17/14: Weapons. In the wake of recent changes that allow Japan to export some defense items to certain customers, and engage in multinational collaborations with allied countries, Japan is becoming involved with MBDA’s Meteor long-range air-to-air missile:

“Separately, the government also gave a green light to Japan’s joint research with Britain using Japanese seeker technology. It’s a simulation-based project linked to a Meteor missile development among European countries. Defense Ministry official Toru Hotchi said Japanese officials are hoping the research can lead to a technology that can be used for F-35 stealth fighter jets that Japan plans to purchase for its Air Self-Defense Forces.”

Meteor is about to enter service on the JAS-39C/D Gripen, with Eurofighter and Rafale qualification to follow by 2018. MBDA has previously stated that they plan to field a variant for internal carriage in the F-35, and have taken some design-related steps, but there’s no definite program or timeframe yet. Could interest be picking up? Sources: DID, “Meteor Missile Will Make Changes to Accommodate F-35” | (USA) ABC, “Japan Approves Joint Missile Study, Export to US” | NY Times 2014-04, “Japan Ends Decades-Long Ban on Export of Weapons”.

Feb 4/14: Bottakuri. Costs continue to rise for Japan, and F-35Js could end up costing YEN 300 billion each. Meanwhile, Japan’s new 5-year Mid-Term Defense Plan will buy just 28 F-35s by 2018, of a 42 plane order that would see 38 assembled in Japan under a final assembly and checkout deal. At that rate, they won’t make the target of completed deployment by 2021 without a high 2019 order surge. Meanwhile, prices have already climbed from the original YEN 9.6 – 9.9 billion agreement to YEN 14.95 billion each for 2 jets in FY 2013, and YEN 15.4 billion each for 4 more in FY 2014.

“Added to this are plant and tooling up costs of [YEN] 83 billion for 2013 and [YEN] 42.4 billion for 2014 as Japanese companies Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Electric and IHI establish assembly and production lines…. Sources here have privately begun to refer to the F-35 deal as a “bottakuri bar,” referring to establishments that lure customers… and force them to pay exorbitant bills through a range of excess charges for items not mentioned explicitly on the menu….. locally produced versions of US kit generally cost double their US prices…. Kiyotani said the F-35’s costs could climb to more than [YEN] 300 billion a fighter.”

Abe’s decision to print money at astronomical rates (q.v. Aug 22/13) is going to worsen this problem by dropping the exchange rate. The Yen has lost 28% of its value vs. the US dollar since June 29/12. Defense analyst Shinichi Kiyotani is quoted as saying that lack of specifics in Japan’s 10-year plan reflects uncertainty over the country’s ability to afford the F-35, and its 200 F-15Js and 90 or so F-2s will eventually need replacement. What to do? Sources: Defense News, “Future of F-35 Unclear as Costs Mount in Japan”.

Aug 22/13: Local non-discount. The Asahi Shimbun reports that Japan’s F-35As will be noticeably more expensive than their American counterparts, due to the cost of incorporating Japanese-made parts. They’re correct in general, but their figure is misleading.

The US government has reportedly authorized 24 engine and radar components to be produced in Japan, accounting for about 10% of the plane’s value, and that number is expected to grow with additional approvals. Overall, IHI Corp. will manufacture 17 engine fan and turbine parts, while Mitsubishi Electric Corp. will produce 7 radar system components that include signal receivers. Parts for the rear fuselage, wings, and undercarriage will come from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. and other Japanese contractors. That will help Japan gain important experience for its own stealth fighters, and build on the composites manufacturing expertise gained in its F-16-derived F-2 program. The government has reportedly budgeted YEN 83 billion (about $844.1 million) in FY 2013 for F-35 related industrial infrastructure, including new facilities at an MHI factory in Aichi Prefecture.

The problem is that Japanese firms will be manufacturing only for JASDF F-35s, sharply raising per-part costs. The 2 aircraft ordered in 2013 will be the first with Japanese parts, and are now budgeted at YEN 15 billion (see also Sept 6/12, now about $153.5 million) each. Japanese sources cite it as a jump from YEN 10.2 billion (+47%), but sources when the contract was signed cited YEN 9.6 billion. Which makes the new figure seem like an even bigger jump of 56.3%. The real jump? Just 27%. On June 29/12, the equivalent dollar value for YEN 9.6 billion was $120.9 million per plane. A jump to $153.5 million is only 27% in real terms.

Abe may be more hawkish than his predecessor, but running the money printing presses full-bore will make it much more expensive for him to execute on those promises. Sources: Asahi Shimbun, “Japan-made parts to push up price of F-35 fighter jets for ASDF” | New Pacific Institute, “Japanese Companies to Manufacture 10 percent of each of Japan’s F-35As”.

Aug 13/13: 22DDH & F-35. A New Pacific Institute blog post looks at the new 22DDH/ Izumo Class “helicopter destroyer,” and its suitability for F-35s. The author doesn’t believe the ship is very suitable, as it would require expensive modifications that include a new landing surface, much greater munitions storage, greater aircraft fuel capacity, and possibly even new aircraft elevators. A ski jump isn’t 100% necessary, but would be important for good performance. Even after all of those expensive modifications, F-35 carrying and servicing capacity would be very limited, and the pilots would need expensive naval aviation training. It might be a good “lily pad” to extend air defense range in the southern sectors if Japan ever buys (very expensive) F-35Bs, but that’s about it.

Bottom line? The ship’s design makes it better suited to the helicopter and disaster operations it’s publicly touted for, and those needs alone are likely to keep the ship busy. NPI, “Does the Izumo Represent Japan Crossing the “Offensive” Rubicon?”

June 21/13: Industrial. Lockheed Martin has signed an agreement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. to begin work on a final assembly and check out (FACO) plant. Per Japan’s weapon export restrictions, it would only be used for Japanese orders, and Japan’s agreement will see the first 4 F-35As produced entirely at Lockheed Martin in the USA. Sources: Defense News, “Lockheed, Mitsubishi Sign F-35 FACO Deal”.

FACO

March 25/13: Long-lead. Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Co. in Fort Worth, TX receives a $40.2 million fixed-price-incentive (firm-target), contract to provide long lead-time parts, materials and components required for the delivery of 4 Japanese F-35As, as part of Low Rate Initial Production Lot 8. See also June 29/12 entry.

Work will be performed in Fort Worth, TX, and is expected to be complete in February 2014. All funds are committed immediately, and this contract was not competitively procured by US Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD, who is acting as Japan’s agent through the FMS process (N00019-13-C-0014).

Feb 15/13: Industrial. Jane’s reports that Mitsubishi Electric Corporation is no longer banned from bidding on Japanese military contracts, now that they’ve finished paying the National Treasury back for previous overcharges in defense and space contracts. The ban could have affected MEC’s planned involvement in providing avionics and other products to Japan’s F-35A fighter program.

2012

F-35A DSCA request and contract; How the F-35A won; The future of stealth debated.

White Paper
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Nov 9/12: Industrial. Japan may begin receiving F-35As by 2016, but local industrial participation faces a number of barriers, due to Japan’s 1967 arms export guidelines. Media reports say that current plans to allow participation in the multinational project, under amended arms export guidelines, wouldn’t lead to deliveries of Japanese F-35A avionics, or of exportable parts for the main wings and tails, before FY 2017.

Media reports are vague, but seem to indicate that Japanese F-35As might eventually reach 40% domestically manufactured content. Japan Today | Yomiuri Shinbun.

Sept 6/12: Bottakuri. More cost hikes for Japan, as defense officials Defense Ministry officials cite “lower production efficiency” as the reason its next 2 F-35As will be YEN 15.4 billion (about $195 million) per plane and initial spares. The initial budget was YEN 13.775 billion per plane for the first 4, which works out to an 11.8% increase.

The ministry is trying to find the full YEN 30.8 billion for the FY 2013 budget request, in order to cover the 2 fighters in it. The Japan Times.

July 2012: Why the F-35 won. The Japanese Ministry of Defense releases its “Defense of Japan 2012” White Paper. Among other things, it explains exactly why the F-35 won. All 3 contenders fulfilled all mandatory requirements, but the F-35 was rated as the overall winner based on the 2nd stage evaluation of capability, industrial participation, cost, and support. It’s difficult to tell whether the F-35A’s subsequent cost jumps would have changed this evaluation, if they had been admitted at the time. Based on what the government says it knew…

The F-35A was deemed to have the highest capability. This may seem odd for a plane with no exercise experiences or operational history, but the rating was done as a mathematical analysis, not a flyoff. Within the inputs that Japan received and believed, the F-35A scored highest overall, with a good balance of high scores across air interdiction, weapons and targeting, electronic warfare capability, and stealth target detection capability.

Eurofighter won the industrial participation segment with the highest level of domestic participation, but had a harder time keeping its local manufacturing proposals within Japan’s prescribed cost bracket. The clear inference is that Japanese Eurofighters would have cost more than other customers have paid.

The F/A-18E+ Super Hornet International was best for purchase cost, while the Eurofighter Typhoon had the lowest expected fuel expenses. The F-35A eked out a “Gilligan win” here by placing 2nd in both sub-categories, and by avoiding the need for “renovation expenses.” Japanese KC-767s don’t mount pod and drogue refueling systems, which is what the Eurofighter and Super Hornet require. The Lightning II uses the same dorsal aerial refueling system as existing JASDF fighters, which avoids the need for KC-767 or C-130H refits.

In terms of support and maintenance costs, the F-35A was given the highest score, due to its in-depth, fleet-wide ALIS maintenance and diagnostic system. Having said that, all 3 contenders proposed performance-based logistics (PBL) based on delivered availability, so all 3 scored the same.

June 29/12: Buy 4, for more. Officials from Japan’s defense ministry say that they have agreed to terms for their first 4 F-35As, despite a 9.1% price increase. The price hike was caused by American cuts, which have shifted 179 aircraft out of the order book over the next 5 years. The planes will reportedly cost 9.6 billion yen (about $120 million) each over the entire buy, up from the original plan of $110 million. American officials said they could not offer the Japanese a lower price than other partnership nations. That makes the Japanese contract a good bellwether for the real base cost of an F-35A in the near future.

Fortunately for the Japanese, the overall contract remained at the expected YEN 60 billion (about $752.4 million). The cost of the 2 simulators and other equipment dropped to YEN 19.1 billion ($240.83 million) from the expected YEN 20.5 billion. Defense News | Fort Worth Star Telegram | Reuters.

42 F-35As

May 1/12: F-35A DSCA request. May 1/12: The US DSCA formally announces Japan’s official request for an initial set of 4 Lockheed Martin F-35As, with an option to buy another 38 and bring the deal to 42 aircraft. “The Japan Air Self-Defense Force’s F-4 aircraft will be decommissioned as F-35’s [sic] are added to the inventory.”

The aircraft would come with Pratt & Whitney’s F135 engines, and Japan would also want up to 5 spare engines. Other components of the deal would include Electronic Warfare Systems, Reprogramming Center support to keep those EW systems current, additional software development and integration, a fight trainer system for the F-35, other forms for personnel training & equipment, transport to Japan, ALIS (Autonomic Logistics Information System) maintenance support systems, US government & contractor support that includes ALGS (Autonomic Logistics Global Support); and initial spare parts, technical data, tools & test equipment.

Implementation of this proposed sale will require multiple trips to Japan involving U.S. Government and contractor representatives for technical reviews/support, programs management, and training over a period of 15 years to conduct Contractor Engineering Technical Services (CETS) and ALGS for after-aircraft delivery.

The estimated cost is $10 billion, which works out to $238.1 million per plane. Until a set of contracts are signed, it’s hard to split that accurately between purchase and support costs, and long support deals can add a lot to costs. Japan is also interested in considerably more local assembly than most of F-35 buyers, which is likely to add a number of unique costs of its own. Even so, the announcement has a ripple effect in Canada, where its huge cost per fighter draws a new round of questions about the plane. US DSCA [PDF] | Canada’s Postmedia.

F-35 request

April 2/12: Stealth’s future? A Japan Today article goes straight to the main military point at stake: the future effectiveness of stealth technologies:

“As more nations develop stealth fighters, then the use of radar as the main target acquisition device will be taken over by infrared, wake tracking, electro-optics, and radio/electronic chatter detection – thereby side-stepping radar stealth features – in short order.”

It’s a bit more complex than that, especially given the fact that stealth tends to be optimized for certain frequencies, so radars will still play a role. Still, the falling cost of high-bandwidth networking, and the need for a counter to stealth technologies, does suggest a range of countermeasures over the coming decades.

Feb 22/12: Negotiations. Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura conveys Japan’s determination to stick to agreed prices and supply schedules for Japan’s F-35s, after Japan’s Sankei newspaper cites unidentified US government officials as saying that Japan had threatened to cancel its orders if prices climbed.

“When we were selecting the fighter, we asked those making the proposals to strictly observe their proposed prices and supply schedules. Japan has conveyed this to the US from time to time…”

The question is whether this matters. Once a contract is signed, backing out becomes so difficult that for practical purposes, it’s impossible unless the price increases are wildly egregious. The time to back out is before any contract is signed. After that, the contract’s own structure and penalties must serve as a government’s insurance. Reuters UK.

2011

F-35A chosen as F-X; F-35 technical issues; China unveils J-20 stealth fighter prototype.

F-35A: Winner.
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Dec 20/11: Winner! Japan’s Ministry of Defense announces that Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Lightning II has won the F-X competitive bid process for 42 planes. The initial contract will be for 4 F-35A jets in Japan Fiscal Year 2012, which begins April 1/12. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2016. Japan’s Defense Minister Yasuo Ichikawa reportedly said at a news conference that:

“…of the four parameters [performance, cost, industrial, and support], the most important was performance. When we think about our national security needs for our future fighters, we have to consider various security environments, and the movements and changes by various countries. In view of this we need to have a fighter that is capable of responding to these changing needs.”

The reported budget for Japan’s initial 4 planes is YEN 55.1 billion (about $706 million, or $176.5 million per plane and initial spares). Overall, the cost is expected to be YEN 9.9 billion (about $127 million) per plane, with spares. On the industrial side, a final assembly and checkout facility is expected in Japan, as well as work on components. Reports and documents indicate that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. will be involved in work on aircraft bodies, Mitsubishi Electric Corp. on mission-related avionics, and IHI Corp. on engines.

As F-4 replacements, the F-35As will have an air defense role, but Japan does have a large cadre of dedicated F-15Js to perform that mission. Note that there’s still an F-XX program in the future, aimed at replacing Japan’s F-15Js. Numbers as high as 100+ planes have been floated, but that will depend on both economic straits, and local geopolitical threats. Japan Ministry of Defense [ in Japanese] | Lockheed Martin | Pentagon | AFA Magazine | BBC | Bloomberg | The Diplomat: interview, and Flashpoints blog | Defense News | Gannett’s Navy Times | Reuters | UK’s Telegraph | Wahington Post | Yahoo!

F-35A wins

Dec 13/11: F-35 problems. The Fort Worth Star-Telegram and POGO obtain an internal Pentagon “Quick Look Review” dated Nov. 29, which says the F-35 is headed for serious technical troubles. The overlap between testing and production has been a sore point for the US GAO in particular, as significant changes due to failures revealed in testing will require expensive retrofits of produced fighters, along with the extra costs of changing future production. Even as operational aircraft were being bought, from June 2010 – November 2011 there were 725 change requests for the fighter, of which 577 are still not yet available to implement.

Major issues issues raised included unexpectedly severe shaking (“buffet”) during high-speed maneuvers, problems with the helmet system’s night vision display, and frequent failures of an important electrical component that can knock out power and affect both oxygen and cockpit pressurization. The team also expressed concern at the slow progress in developing and testing the plane’s combat roles, including “certain classified issues” that especially affect air defense performance. Star-Telegram | POGO.org, incl. full Quick Look Review | Australia’s Herald Sun | The Hill.

Nov 4/11: Super Hornet International. Boeing continues to discuss Super Hornet International designs. Not much has changed beyond earlier releases that noted improved F414 EPE engines, a large touch-screen panel, warning systems with 360 degree spherical coverage, and conformal fuel tanks to extend range. They do mention that the dorsal conformal fuel tanks will have a similar center of gravity to the aircraft, and that up to 3 weapon pods would be able to carry 4 x AMRAAM/ 2 x 500 pound/ 1 x 2,000 pound bomb each, while keeping the plane’s radar signature low. That’s in line with earlier reports, which touted 2 x AMRAAMs and 2 x 500 pound JDAMs per pod, but the 2,000 pound JDAM is new. So, too, is confirmation that the new design would have additional radar shaping to lower its cross section further.

With the Super Hornet out of contention in India, Japan appears to be the main target, though the Super Hornet is also being marketed to Brazil, Greece, Denmark, Kuwait, and Qatar, among others. Aviation Week.

Sept 26/11: F-X RFP submission deadline. Boeing confirms that it’s offering the F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet, which has also been exported to Australia. Boeing also makes the stealth-enhanced F-15SE design, but appears to have decided not to offer it.

Eurofighter GmbH submits the Eurofighter Typhoon, with BAE acting in a lead role. While the submission is described as “cost effective,” the firm is not explicit regarding the status of the submitted aircraft: new, or used.

Lockheed Martin is expected to submit the F-35A, but has made no announcement. Boeing | Eurofighter.

Mitsubishi F-2s
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April 13/11: RFP. Japan issues the Request for Proposal for its F-X fighter competition. Source.

F-X RFP

March 2/11: Eurofighter. During high level visits, British officials continue to press the case for the Eurofighter as Japan’s future F-X fighter, over offerings from Boeing (F/A-18E/F Super Hornet or F-15SE Silent Eagle) or Lockheed Martin (F-35A/B/C). One interesting wrinkle is that reconnaissance capabilities could become an important requirement, a move that would give the F-35 family an edge. BAE et. al. are fighting an uphill fight, but they’re not alone: in January 2011, the European Business Council in Japan launched a defense and security committee to promote defense-related business cooperation. Asahi Shimbun | Japan Times | L.A. Times.

Jan 18/11: China’s J-20. The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s unveiling of its J-20 stealth fighter has creates ripples in the region:

“Tom Burbage, general manager of the F-35 program for Lockheed Martin Corp., said Beijing’s progress in developing the J-20 has created a “stronger sense of urgency” throughout the Asian-Pacific region about air-force modernization. He said Japan, South Korea and Singapore are now engaged in bilateral discussions with U.S. government officials over the F-35… Mr. Burbage said the U.S. government has asked Lockheed to provide preliminary information on how it could build the Joint Strike Fighter with Japanese industrial input, building either major subcomponents or completing final assembly in Japan… on aircraft for its own military inventory.”

2008 – 2009

Efforts to buy the F-22 fail, Japan looks at other options.

F/A-18F over CV-63
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Nov 23/09: F-35. In the wake of a FY 2010 American defense budget that ended F-22 production, while maintaining the ban on exporting the aircraft, Japan has been forced to look at other options. Kyodo news agency reports that Japan is considering buying 40 F-35s, and that the Japanese defense ministry is seeking fiscal allocation in the 2011 budget. According to media reports, the plane beat the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, F-15 Eagle variants, and EADS’ Eurofighter. The acquisition plan is likely to be incorporated in new defense policy guidelines and a medium-term defense plan to be adopted in December 2010.

The F-35s are estimated to cost YEN 9 billion (about $104 million) each; that’s a rather low figure, when compared to actual expenditures by the USA and Australia. If the reports are true, the critical question would become: what model of F-35? The F-35C’s longer range might suit Japan very well, while the F-35B’s ability to make use of highways and helicopter carriers would add a very interesting wrinkle indeed. Japan Today | Agence France Presse | domain-b | Times of India.

Oct 4-7/09: F-35. The Japan Times reports, and Jane’s confirms, that Japan is negotiating a requested payment of about YEN 1 billion (around $11 million), in order to receive “sensitive” information about the F-35’s capabilities. Japan wanted the F-22, and is reportedly still considering it; the government is also reportedly looking at the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault’s Rafale, Boeing’s stealth-enhanced F-15SE, and its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. The Japan Times adds that:

“It is rare for a country to be charged such a large sum for information on potential imports of defense equipment. The U.S. also told Japan that Washington will not provide information on the F-35’s radar-evading capabilities until Tokyo makes a decision to purchase it, the sources said.”

One wonders about the wisdom of that sales approach, if true.

July 31/09: F-22. The US House passes “H.R. 3326: Department of Defense Appropriations Act, 2010” by a 400-30 vote. The final version strips out F-22 funding. As House members prepare for negotiations with the Senate on a single, final bill to send to the President, the amendment vote, and subsequent passage of HR 3326, effectively marks the end of the F-22 program. F-22 production will continue through remaining funded orders, and cease in 2011.

Both the House and Senate versions of the 2010 defense authorization bill require a report to study the potential for F-22A exports. The House version listed only Japan, while the Senate bill did not restrict the countries involved. Development work would be required before production, however, which creates real problems. While it’s theoretically possible to bridge that time gap by resurrecting the American program in future defense bills, the aircraft’s supply chain will stop producing certain parts, and begin losing the people associated with them, long before the final delivery in 2011. That makes a production line restart in 2013 or beyond a very difficult and expensive proposition for potential export customers like Japan. See also: Aero News.

F-22 program ended

June 5/09: F-22. Reuters reports that US Senate Appropriations Committee chair Senator Daniel Inouye [D-HI], has sent sent letters on the F-22 issue to Japanese ambassador Ichiro Fujisaki, and to American Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Inouye reportedly supports repeal of the 1998 “Obey Amendment” that bans F-22 exports, and the USAF is also said to have decided to support exports to select countries. Reuters adds that there is even growing Congressional support to repeal the Obey Amendment in the face of North Korea’s stepped-up belligerence, and the prospect of significant job losses if F-22 production is closed per Gates’ FY 2010 budget. The exact quote from one of their sources is “…decent support, but it’s not a slam-dunk.”

The senator confirmed sending the letter, but would not discuss its contents. Reuters claims that the letter conveyed some conclusions from a recent USAF study, which placed the estimated cost of developing an F-22 Export version at about $250 million per plane, assuming a production run of 40-60 planes. The USAF study also reportedly assumed that production of an F-22EX would begin in 4-5 years, with delivery beginning in 7-9 years following a re-start of the F-22 production line.

That price tag is about $80-100 million above the cost of a more-capable F-22A. It factors in average costs per plane for production line restart, and for substituting and integrating replacements for components that the USA still does not wish to export. The final cost per plane could certainly end up being higher, if the development and integration program runs over budget. It could also be lower, but only if the substitution program meets projections and one of 2 things happens: (1) The production line is not shut down, due to Congressional appropriations over the next 3 years; and/or (2) More F-22EXs are bought to spread out the F-22EX program’s development and restart costs, via additional Japanese buys or by adding other countries as F-22EX customers.

May 19/09: F-22. A Japan Times article looks at the barriers to F-22 fielding on the Japanese side of the equation, and concludes:

“In sum, Japan’s acquisition of the F-22 would involve significantly increasing defense spending, rethinking the domestic production of weapons platforms and implementing a more robust legal and enforcement framework to protect classified information. Under current circumstances, these developments are not in the cards.”

Given that some of the F-22’s material/manufacturing methods are considered to be among its more sensitive technologies, domestic manufacturing in Japan is unlikely to be an option at all.

April 6/09: F-22. US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announces his recommendation to terminate F-22 orders at the end of FY 2009, leaving the USA with a fleet of 187 aircraft.

F-15SE unveiled
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March 17/09: F-15SE. Boeing unveils the F-15SE “Silent Eagle,” which appears to be aimed directly at Japan. The aircraft has slightly canted vertical tails to improve aerodynamics and reduce weight, minimal additional radar shaping, the addition of coatings to improve radar signature further, and a pair of conformal fuel tanks with cut-in chambers for 2 air-to-air missiles each, or air-to-ground weapons like the 500 pound JDAM and 250 pound GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb. The tanks would be swappable for traditional conformal tanks if desired, and weapons could also be carried externally. BAE’s DEWS electronic self-protection system would be fitted, along with Raytheon’s AN/APG-63v3 radar that will equip all Singaporean F-15s and be retrofitted to the American fleet.

The intent appears to be to offer a “budget Raptor” in the $120 million range, with a basic radar signature that’s competitive with newer fighters like the similarly-priced Eurofighter Typhoon. Advantages would include better radar signature when internal carriage is used for long combat air patrols or limited precision strikes, a superior and proven AESA radar, longer range, and more total carriage capacity if necessary. On the flip side, it would not provide the same maneuverability options as canard equipped contenders like EADS’ Eurofighter or Dassault’s Rafale. The total package would come closer to parity with the SU-30MKI/M and subsequent versions of Sukhoi’s offerings, but may or may not measure up against longer-term opponents like Sukhoi’s PAK-FA or China’s J-XX. From Boeing’s release:

“Boeing has completed a conceptual prototype of the CFT internal-carriage concept, and plans to flight-test a prototype by the first quarter of 2010, including a live missile launch. The design, development, and test of this internal carriage system are available as a collaborative project with an international aerospace partner.”

That partner could also be Israel, which has now expressed interest in the F-15SE, and also made its own requests for F-22s.

Dec 28/08: F-22. Japan’s Daily Yomiuri newspaper reports that the country is likely to drop its attempts to buy F-22s, amid signs that U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s new administration may halt production of the aircraft.

Congress has yet to weigh in, however, and a consensus for continued production could easily change the odds for exports as well. Defense News report.

Oct 10/08: Eurofighter. Flight International’s “Eurofighter gets serious about Japan’s F-X contest” discusses political developments:

“If you had asked me a year ago, I would have said that the Typhoon did not have a chance due to the close US-Japan ties. I am no longer sure of that,” says a Tokyo-based industry source close to the Japanese defence ministry. “Washington’s continued refusal to release information on the [Lockheed Martin] F-22 has strained bilateral defence ties, and Japanese politicians and bureaucrats are eyeing the Typhoon as a viable alternative to the other American fighters that are on offer.”

Flight International’s sources indicate that Japan will make one more push in 2009, after the American elections. If that fails, it is likely to abandon efforts to secure the F-22, and move to buy other options.

July 16/08: Eurofighter. BAE executives interviewed at Farnborough discuss the Eurofighter’s opportunities with Japan if the USA refuses to sell that country F-22EX fighters. BAE says that is willing to share more of its technology with Japanese companies, establishing Japan as a so-called home market where it manufactures and sells products. Current BAE home markets include the U.K., the USA, Australia, South Africa, Sweden, Saudi Arabia.

The executive also mentions that BAE is looking hard at India and South Korea for future growth, adding that Defense spending in Korea will be greater than in the U.K. within 5 years. Bloomberg News.

2006 – 2007

Japan pushes for F-22, but is undermined by pro-China interests; USAF F-22As deploy to Kadena, Japan.

F-22: Off to Kadena…
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Nov 15/07: F-22. The Lexington Institute’s quick brief “Asian Security: Japan Needs Better Tools To Do Its Part” weighs in, in favor of Japan’s case:

“The F-22 is the Air Force’s new top-of-the-line fighter, far superior to any other fighter in the world in its agility, survivability and versatility. It’s so capable that policymakers aren’t inclined to export it, even to trusted allies like Japan. But does that really make sense if Raptor is the plane best suited to protecting the Japanese home islands against cruise-missile attack or preempting a ballistic-missile launch by North Korea? It sounds like Washington is saying it wants Japan to play a bigger role in regional security, but with inferior weapons — or that the Japanese will have to depend forever on America to do the really tough missions… if we really want the Japanese to be partners in regional security, we should be willing to trust them with other top systems too — especially since they’re the one ally we have that isn’t inclined to export weapons.”

July 24/07: F-22. Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. Pacific Command, said he has recommended that the F-22 Raptor not be sold to Japan. His comments came during a briefing at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and concern a new U.S. “capabilities assessment group” of Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, Office of the Secretary of Defense and industry officials who are reviewing Japan’s fighter requirement. Defense News.

June 28/07: CRS on F-22. The US Congressional Research Service issues its report re: selling F-22EX aircraft to Japan (last revised: July 2/07). The report itself is completely non-committal, as it sketches out the options. While the USAF and defense industry are solidly behind the idea as a way to keep the F-22 production line alive, there is some opposition in Congress. Key paragraph:

“The executive branch proposes and Congress reviews arms sales on a case-by-case basis. The sale of F-22s to Japan raises both broad questions about the security environment in East Asia and questions that are specific to domestic interests. Factors that argue for a transfer include potential benefits to U.S. industry, contribution to the defense of allied countries, and promoting U.S. interoperability with those countries. Factors that argue against a particular arms transfer include the likelihood of technology proliferation and the potential for undermining regional stability.”

Increased Chinese capabilities and the need for a longer-range, twin-engine jet with the ability to take on modern SU-30 family jets is mentioned in the report body, but the military capability drivers are sidestepped and this is not highlighted as a key issue in favor. Japan’s policy of domestic production and license-building is mentioned in the document as a potential stumbling block, but it, too, is absent from the summary paragraph. CRS reports also tend not to present counter-arguments or responses to objections/contentions, as an attempt to remain “above” political debate. That tendency is also present here, and weakens the report as an analytical document. In a particularly interesting side note, however, the CRS report adds:

“A final industrial base issue pertains to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). Although originally intended to be complementary aircraft, F-22 and JSF capabilities, development, and production have converged. Implicitly if not explicitly, these aircraft are competing for scarce procurement funds. Extension of F-22 production would likely bring these aircraft into even sharper competition.”

May 23/07: Given the Raptor’s top secret status, American trust in the purchasing country’s security levels and intentions is a significant part of any export decision. Israel’s past defense cooperation with China, for instance, which included sales like “Harpy” anti-radar drones without timely US notification, has created serious issues. It led to temporary suspension from Israel’s observer status in the F-35 program, and is also widely seen as a serious impediment to its current request for an export version of the F-22.

International espionage is a constant of international relations, and victimization is assessed differently; but sufficiently serious leaks can also have repercussions if they indicate a systemic problem, or happen at a high enough level.

Details are sparse, so it’s difficult to assess the true importance of recent developments in Japan. Reuters reports that classified data on the USA’s AEGIS naval radar/combat system, SM-3 missiles, and Link 16 tactical data net had been “leaked” in Japan. Local media said authorities believe that computer disks containing the classified data were illegally copied and circulated among dozens of students and instructors at a naval college in western Japan. The reports follow a police raid on Saturday of a naval college in western Japan over a “leak of data” in March 2007 when police found one of the disks at the home of a Japanese naval officer in Kanagawa during a separate investigation of his Chinese wife over her immigration status. AEGIS, SM-3 missiles, and Link 16 are all key nodes in Japan’s outer layer of its initial ABM defense system. Link from Taiwan’s China Post | Associated Press.

May 18/07: F-22. Bill Gertz, Washington Times: “Pro-China officials in the White House and Pentagon are quietly undermining Japan’s request to buy 50 advanced F-22 jet fighter-bombers, to avoid upsetting Beijing’s government, according to U.S. officials familiar with the dispute… Both the Air Force and the F-22 manufacturer, Lockheed Martin Corp., favor building an export version… The F-22 export is a major test of U.S. support for Japan and is being watched closely by Japanese government officials who are worried Washington will not back Tokyo and instead kow-tow to Beijing on the sale.”

April 30/07: F-22. Japan applies to buy fighter Australia rejects. The USA’s stated willingness to consider Japan’s F-22EX request re-ignites controversy in Australia, in the wake of the Australian government’s attempt to defuse the issue by maintaining that the USA will not sell the F-22 abroad.

April 27/07: F-22. Japan has yet to receive clearance for F-22EX fighters, but discussions are progressing. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency: “Seoul eyes advanced jets beyond F-15K” contends that the issue of F-22 exports to Japan will be under discussion during the imminent summit between U.S. President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The decision will be watched closely by South Korea, which also wants 5th generation fighter jets for its 3rd phase F-X purchase. An excerpt:

“China is modernizing its air force at a rapid pace,” said Dennis Wilder, senior director for East Asian Affairs at the White House National Security Council. “And so we are very positively disposed to talking to the Japanese about future-generation fighter aircraft.”

Japan has worked to improve its diplomatic and military relations with the USA, stressing its reliability as an ally and collaborating on sensitive technologies like missile defense. Hence the current situation, in which exports of the F-22 can be discussed with some odds of success. South Korea, which has made a very different set of choices, is unlikely to be received as positively.

April 20/07: F-22. Flight International reports that Israel has approached the USA about acquiring Lockheed Martin F-22s, as concern mounts about new threats to the IAF’s regional air superiority from proposed sales of advanced US weapons to the Gulf states, and Israeli assessments of a growing threat from Iran. Sources say that the issue was raised during a recent one-day trip by US defense secretary Robert Gates to Israel.

While unrelated to the Japanese request, and very uncertain for reasons of its own, the Israeli request raises both the pressure to create an F-22EX version, and the perceived market & benefits from doing so.

Feb 17-18/07: F-22. Kadena Air Force Base (AFB), Japan received 10 F-22A Raptors in the aircraft’s first overseas deployment. The F-22As are assigned to the 27th Fighter Squadron at Langley AFB, VA, and are under the command of Lt. Col. Wade Tolliver. The aircraft started their deployment with a stop at Hickam AFB, Hawaii, but a software issue affecting the aircraft’s navigation system was discovered on February 11th, causing the aircraft to return to Hickam. The issue was corrected and the aircraft continued on to Kadena.

The 27th FS deployed more than 250 Airmen to Kadena for the 90-120 day deployment, which is part of a regularly-scheduled U.S. Pacific Command rotational assignment of aircraft to the Pacific. See USAF release.

Feb 11/07: F-22. The F-22A’s first foreign deployment, to Kadena Air Force Base (AFB) in Japan, runs into a serious problem. The aircraft started their deployment with a stop at Hickam AFB, Hawaii, but a software issue affecting the aircraft’s navigation system was discovered on February 11th, forcing the aircraft to return to Hickam without navigation or communications.

October 2006: wide spectrum of opinion in Australia (including the opposition Labor Party) is also pushing for an F-22EX request, based on arguments and strategic needs that are very similar to Japan’s. At the moment, however, the current Liberal Party government remains absolutely committed to the F-35A as its only future fighter force option.

September 2006: DID’s “Japan Looking to Expand Missile Defense & Military Spending” report looks at Japan’s current security situation, and political-economic shifts that may be very consequential for its defense market.

Feb 18/06: F-22. Inside Defense’s Air Force Plans to Sell F-22As to Allies offers a fuller discussion and analysis of Japan’s F-22 bid.

Footnotes

fn1. Reader Keith Jacobs informs DID that despite the JASDF listing of 7 F-1s in service, “The JASDF marked retirement of the F.1 with a six-aircraft flypast at Tsuiki Air Base (Kyushu) in 2006 (forgot actual date – but Feb or March if I remember correctly. They were aircraft of the 6th Hiko-tai (the final squadron unit). 6th Hiko-tai has now transitioned to F-2A and has its full complement of aircraft of the new fighter. JASDF also retired the last Fuji T-1B, assigned to the 5th Technical Training School and dispersed them to museums (as they did the T.3) from Komaki Air Base. “ The date of that retirement at Tsuiki was March 6/06.

Additional Readings Background: Japan’s Plans

• Japan Ministry of Defense – Defense of Japan. Annual white papers.

• Japan Ministry of Defense – Number of Major Aircraft and Performance Specifications. 2007 snapshot.

Background: Fighters

• DID – Eurofighter’s Future: Tranche 3, and Beyond

• DID – The F-35’s Air-to-Air Capability Controversy

• DID – Super Hornet Fighter Family MYP-III: 2010-2013 Contracts. Any Japanese purchase would fall under the US government’s multi-year purchase terms, and would effectively extend this production period.

• DID – Lockheed & Mitsubishi’s F-2 Fighter Partnership

News & Views

• New Pacific Institute, Japan Security Watch (Aug 13/13) – Does the Izumo Represent Japan Crossing the “Offensive” Rubicon? Conclusion: no.

• Aviation Week (Oct 22/12) – Japan Aims To Launch F-3 Development In 2016-17 [dead link]. See also News of Japan abridged version. Now known as “F-3” instead of “i3”, this would be a Japanese-designed stealth fighter as a follow-on to the F-35. Hence the importance of industrial offsets. If F-3 progresses slowly, opportunities open up for more F-35s.

• Bloomberg (Sept 2/11) – Lockheed Stealth Jet May Win Japan Deal. Speculative analysis. Suggests that stealth is a very important criterion for the Japanese.

• Aviation Week (June 11/09) – Boeing Studies Stealth Eagle Options [link now broken]. Interesting point made re: retrofits and stealth sales: “It’s not how low can you go, it’s how low are you allowed to go, and the U.S. government controls that,” says Brad Jones, Boeing program manager for F-15 future fighters. “We can get to different levels depending on the country.”

• Japan Times (May 16/09) – Hurdles to a Japanese F-22

• USA Today (July 12/07) – Japan may hold key to F-22’s future, thousands of jobs

• US Air Force Association Magazine (June 2006) – “Air Force Alliance” for the US and Japan. There have been major changes in the alliance over the last few years, as the level of cooperation between the 2 countries has grown by leaps and bounds.

My colleagues at CNA’s Russian Studies Program — Michael Kofman, Anya Fink and Jeff Edmonds — have written two excellent reports on Russian deterrence and escalation management. I contributed a bit to the research. The summary and links to the reports below is taken from Michael Kofman’s description of the research on his blog:

CNA’s Russia Studies Program recently produced two reports that discuss in depth the main concepts comprising Russia’s strategy for escalation management or intrawar deterrence, their origins in military thought, and the current state of concept development. The first is titled Evolution of Key Concepts, covering essential deterrence concepts, current stratagems for escalation management, the role of nuclear and nonnuclear weapons, types of damage, views on targeting, etc. The second key debates and the players within Russian military thought provides an intellectual road map to the conversation among Russian military analysts, strategists, and the players involved. To better socialize the findings from these research products I’ve decided to post their respective abstracts here, though I suggest those interested download the reports from the CNA Research site.

The first report on evolution of key concepts assesses the evolution in Russian military strategy on the question of escalation management, or intra-war deterrence, across the conflict spectrum from peacetime to nuclear war. Russia’s overarching approach to deterrence, called “strategic deterrence,” represents a holistic concept for shaping adversary decision making by integrating military and non-military measures. Key concepts in Russian military thinking on deterrence include deterrence by fear inducement, deterrence through the limited use of military force, and deterrence by defense. These approaches integrate a mix of strategic nonnuclear and nuclear capabilities, depending on the context and conflict scope. In a conflict, Russian escalation management concepts can be roughly divided into periods of demonstration, adequate damage infliction, and retaliation. Russian strategic culture emphasizes cost imposition over denial for deterrence purposes, believing in forms of calibrated damage as a vehicle by which to manage escalation. This so-called deterrent damage is meant to be dosed, applied in an iterative manner, with associated targeting and damage levels. Despite acquiring nonnuclear means of deterrence, Russia continues to rely on nuclear weapons to deter and prosecute regional and large-scale conflicts, seeing these as complementary means within a comprehensive strategic deterrence system. The paper summarizes debates across authoritative Russian military-analytical literature beginning in 1991 and incorporates translated graphics and tables. The concluding section discusses implications for US and allied forces.

The second report on key debates and players offers an overview of the main debates in Russian military thought on deterrence and escalation management in the post-Cold War period, based on authoritative publications. It explores discussions by Russian military analysts and strategists on “regional nuclear deterrence,” namely the structure of a two-level deterrence system (regional and global); debates on “nonnuclear deterrence” and the role of strategic conventional weapons in escalation management; as well as writings on the evolution of damage concepts toward ones that reflect damage that is tailored to the adversary. Russian military thinking on damage informs the broader discourse on ways and means to shift an opponent’s calculus in an escalating conflict. The report concludes with summaries of recent articles that reflect ongoing discourse on the evolution of Russia’s strategic deterrence system and key trends in Russian military thought on escalation management.

Americas

Boeing won a $14.6 million contract modification, which exercises options to procure 85 additional primary bleed air regulator parts kits and 439 new valves in support of F/A-18 Hornet combat jets (Series E/F/G) and their modifications. The US Navy F/A-18 E and F Super Hornet maritime strike attack aircraft was manufactured by Boeing, and flew for the first time on 29 November 1995. The Super Hornet is equipped with the APG-73 radar manufactured by Raytheon. The primary and secondary bleed air regulator valves control the flow of air coming from the engine back into the Environmental Control System (ECS), the Onboard Oxygen Generation System (OBOGS) and other systems. Work will take place in St. Louis, Missouri. Expected completion will be by August 2021.

The US Army has issued a request for information (RFI) to arm its Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft (FARA) with a 20mm cannon. The RFI states that the cannon should be capable of providing a maximum of 360 degrees of azimuthal coverage and 60 degrees of elevation coverage, military.com reports. The program office is also keen to equip the FARA with optionally-manned flight capability. FVL is one of the Army’s top modernization priorities under a new strategy the service launched in 2017, with the goal of replacing most major combat platforms beginning in 2028.

Middle East & Africa

Elbit Systems’ Seagull autonomous unmanned surface vehicle has completed integration and initial sea trials with a compact version of the Towed Reelable Active Passive Sonar variable depth sonar system developed by Elbit’s Canadian-based subsidiary GeoSpectrum Technologies. In-water testing of the TRAPS-USV system was performed off Haifa, Israel, in March. The company is claiming a world first for the launch and recovery of an active towed array sonar from a small USV under remote control. Developed by Elbit’s naval systems business, Seagull is a modular 12 m aluminum-hulled USV capable of operation from either a mother ship or shore station. The TRAPS-USV system is intended to provide an alternative ASW sonar option for customers with mission profiles, such as ASW escort or convoy protection, requiring a sensing capability while operating at speed.

Europe

The United Kingdom Armed Forces ordered four Mission Master-Cargo unmanned ground vehicles from Rheinmetall Canada for its Robotic Platoon Vehicle (RPV) program. The contract includes training, service support, and spare parts. Rheinmetall Canada is to supply the platforms, while Rheinmetall BAE Land Systems will provide on-location support services. The Mission Master UGV is an all-terrain, multipurpose vehicle based on an 8×8 platform. It has a top speed of 40 km/h and is ruggedized and fully amphibious, with the option of being fitted with tracks or chains for additional mobility. The vehicle is air-transportable by external sling load or internally by a CH-53 or CH-46 heavy lift helicopter or a C-130 transport aircraft. None of the parts are subject to International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), facilitating export.

Finland’s Ministry of Defense announced that Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen, following on from discussions with the country’s president Sauli Niinistö, had decided that bidders for the country’s HX fighter replacement were no longer allowed to utilize external consultants. Furthermore, the MoD has appealed for external consultants not to be used by bidders in formal negotiations. According to the MoD, the justification for the move comes as the competition moves into its final phases, following the submission of second-round requests for quotations at the end of January. Therefore, a statement said, the MoD is wanting to make a clear distinction between the bidding companies and the consultants that represent them.

Asia-Pacific

Chairman of Guizhou Aircraft Industry Corporation, Wang Wenfei, revealed that the company had secured an order for the FTC-2000G advanced jet trainer this year. The company’s wechat channel said the order was place in January and delivery will start in two years time. Wang added that it was a South East Asian customer that placed the order. Referring to the FTC-2000G ‘s first export order, Wang Wenfei said that earlier this year, GAIC won the first batch of aircraft export orders  which will be delivered in batches, with a delivery time of 2 years. He did not disclose the number of aircraft or its price. Also called ‘Mountain Eagle,’ FTC-2000G is a “multi-purpose” aircraft. As an attack aircraft, it has a large combat radius and strong penetration ability, and can perform close air support, battlefield interception, and depth. Combat other air-ground combat missions. As a fighter, it has good maneuverability, strong situational awareness and self-defense capabilities, and high survivability on the battlefield. It can perform air-to-air combat tasks such as air fighting, combat escort, and air patrol. As a trainer, it has a wide coverage, good training efficiency, high safety and reliability, and has outstanding mid / low altitude sub / transonic maneuverability. It can complete intermediate, advanced, combat entry and tactical confrontation training tasks, and combat force pilots. Technology keeps training.

Today’s Video

Watch: HEAD OF THE SUKHOI DESIGN BUREAU CLAIMS SU 57 IS SUPERIOR TO F22 & F 35 – 3 REASONS WHY HE IS WRONG!

Americas

Huntington Ingalls won a $23.4 million modification to exercise options for accomplishment of follow yard class services (FYS) for the DDG-51 class destroyer program. The DDG-51 Arleigh Burke Class is a multimission warship. It features an advanced antiSubmarine warfare system, the AEGIS combat system, the vertical launching system, two embarked SH-60 helicopters along with advanced anti-aircraft missiles and land attack missiles. Huntington Ingalls’ business segment, Ingalls, has in-depth experience in manufacturing amphibious assault and expeditionary ships for the US Navy. Being the US Navy’s primary surface combatant, the Aegis-equipped Arleigh Burke Class destroyers enjoy solid demand, indicating the possibility of increased revenue recognition for the company in the coming days. Work will take place in Mississippi, Washington DC and Maine. Estimated completion will be by April 2021.

The US Air Force is progressing electronic warfare (EW) testing of the Eagle Passive/Active Warning and Survivability System upgrade for the Boeing F-15 combat aircraft. An F-15E Strike Eagle fitted with the BAE Systems EPAWSS electronic defensive aids system began the first phase of critical EW testing at the Benefield Anechoic Facility on Edwards Air Force Base, California, in May 2019. Testing is currently continuing at the same facility, the air force said. “The ongoing tests are required to collect the data to establish the integration of the EPAWSS radar and missile warning capabilities and the electronic countermeasures onto the F-15E platform,” Ed Sabat, Project Development Lead and Civilian Director of Operations with the 772nd Test Squadron was quoted as saying.

Middle East & Africa

The Nigerian Army received a consignment of Chinese armored vehicles and artillery systems that included Norinco VT4 main battle tanks, ST1 tank destroyers, and self-propelled howitzers. Nigerian Army Chief of Policy and Plans Lieutenant General Lamidi Adeosun told local TV news during the unloading of the equipment at Lagos docks on 8 April that it was part of a large consignment ordered from China that included two types of “artillery heavy guns”. He added that the initial consignment included 15 40-ft containers of spares and accessories. The Nigerian Army did not identify the type or numbers of platforms being procured, although the media reported that 17 were delivered in this consignment, which is the first under a $152 million contract signed in 2019 that also includes support and training.

The Egyptian Navy’s third Class 209/1400mod (Type 209) submarine is now heading to Egypt after it was formally handed over by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. The German company said the handover of S43 took place at its Kiel yard, but that only a small number of people were present because of the Covid-19 pandemic. “Given the global corona pandemic, this handover marks a very special milestone for us,” TKMS CEO Dr Rolf Wirtz said. “We are extremely proud of our employees, who completed the boat on time and in line with our comprehensive health protection measures.”

Europe

The French Navy says 668 sailors from the Charles de Gaulle battle group have been tested positive for COVID-19. Thirty-one have been hospitalized with one in intensive care unit. Last week, it was decided to bring the Charles-de-Gaulle home 10 days early from a deployment in the Atlantic after some crew members showed symptoms. The carrier, which had helicopters and fighter jets on board, was accompanied by two frigates. Sailors from the Charles-de-Gaulle, one of the frigates and the pilots who returned the aircraft to their respective bases, are all placed in isolation for 14 days, the ministry said.

Asia-Pacific

Northrop Grumman delivers two more E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (AHE) aircraft to the Japan Air Self Defense Force (JASDF). Following assembly and some test flights at Iwakuni, the two aircraft, which belong to an initial batch of four, are set to be transferred to Misawa Air Base in Aomori Prefecture in northern Japan where the JASDF’s 601st Squadron, which operates both E-2C and E-2D aircraft, is based. The US Department of Defense announced in September 2019 that the US Naval Air Systems Command had awarded Northrop Grumman a $1.36 billion contract modification for the production and delivery of nine additional aircraft to Japan, bringing to the number of E-2Ds under contract for the JASDF to 13.

Today’s Video

Watch: USS BARRY OF U.S NAVY SAILS THROUGH TAIWAN STRAIT UNCHALLENGED IN SUPPORT OF TAIWAN!

EDA has launched a first call for papers from defence industry, academia and research institutes on the topic of Integration of military air capabilities in a changing context of the civil aviation sector in the framework of EDA’s upcoming Single European Sky Workshops.

The purpose of the workshop is to provide industry with a deeper insight into the Strategic Context Case (SCC) 10 (Integration of military air capabilities in a changing aviation sector) and develop a common understanding by gathering industry proposals on new R&D and validation activities needed within the Single European Sky (SES) domain.

This call for papers is part of a broader approach to SCC 10, and aims to initiate and consolidate cooperative projects in the following domains:

• Military access to airspace, in particular in a Single European Sky context. The aim is to improve, for existing and future manned and unmanned air capabilities, the ability to train and conduct security and defence missions particularly in peacetime, but also in crisis and conflict.
• Protect the confidentiality of mission critical information and ensure a resilient and robust data sharing network in the changing context of the civil aviation sector.
• Coordination with civilian aviation authorities and structures, infrastructures and procedures while maintaining military-to-military interoperability to enable the effective contribution to operations in multinational coalitions.
• The adaptation of Military AIR/SPACE C2 capability and Communication Navigation Surveillance (CNS) capability to the changing context of the civil aviation sector including the deployment of ATM technologies and the development of the U-Space concept.

The responses to this call for papers will drive the ideation of potential project proposals during the second formal workshop which will take place at EDA on 25 June 2020*.

How to submit 

• Download the call for papers
• Download the questionnaire
• Send your completed files to ise@eda.europa.eu
• Deadline for submissions is 15 May 2020.

Submissions are sought from a wide range of industries involved in ATM (Air Traffic Management)/SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research). Though responses to all questions in this call for papers are encouraged, submitters may develop answers to specific questions in greater detail based on their area of expertise.

Submissions will be judged on their innovativeness and relevance as well as ability to stimulate discussion on future ATM/SES in a military context. Participation in this call for papers is open to companies of any size as well as academic, research institutes and associations or groupings of industrial suppliers.

*The workshop will be subject to any recommendations put in place in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Please check the EDA website for any updates.

The European Defence Agency's Steering Board has approved the launch of a specific EDA ad hoc project which will contribute to  the implementation of a Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) project aimed at developing a Deployable Modular Underwater Intervention Capability Package (DIVEPACK). Bulgaria, which leads a group of three PESCO participating countries involved in DIVEPACK (together with France and Greece), had formally requested the Agency’s support for moving this ambitious project forward.  

The DIVEPACK project, part of the second batch of PESCO projects approved in November 2018, aims at developing an interoperable specialised modular asset called “DIVEPACK Unit”. The Unit will provide a comprehensive capability package (both as materiel and expertise) enabling a tailored response to the full spectrum of defensive (non-Special Operations Forces, SOF) underwater divers’ interventions, in expeditionary setting, both at sea and in inland bodies of water, in support of EU missions. It will focus on human centric integration of a wide range of diving and Unmanned Underwater Vehicles materiel, operated by qualified personnel, in a comprehensive capability package.  

The capability will be based on an open plug-and-play architecture which will facilitate the versatility of response in the framework of EU CSDP operations and will provide a quick reaction capability, applicable to a broad range of underwater scenarios, both at sea and in inland bodies of water, except for special forces missions.  
 

Launch support  

EDA’s specific Category B project will serve as a preparation phase for the DIVEPACK PESCO project and deal with harmonisation of requirements, in particular the development and endorsement of the Common Staff Targets (CST), Common Staff Requirements (CSR), the Business Case (BC) and other relevant documents necessary to allow for a smooth acquisition phase afterwards. EDA will thus act as a facilitator and manager of the launch phase of the project.  

EDA’s Acting Chief Executive Olli Ruutu said: “EDA is delighted to take this ambitious and innovative PESCO project forward and to support its Member States. As the European hub for collaborative capability development, the Agency has the required expertise to help Member States in the implementation of their PESCO projects. The development of underwater control capabilities which contribute to resilience at sea and are based on new technologies such as unmanned systems, is one of the European Capability Development Priorities agreed in 2018. The DIVEPACK project will contribute to this priority”.  

Bulgaria's Deputy Defence Minister Atanas Zapryanov said: “The DIVEPACK is the first joint project in the PESCO context coordinated by Bulgaria, which makes us proud and also ambitious. Its core purpose is to build up a range of specific defence capabilities, which will be fully aligned with the European Capability Development Priorities. The DIVEPACK units will be capable of executing versatility of underwater missions and tasks as part of EU CSDP and NATO operations. The first phase of DIVEPACK will be implemented within EDA’s  framework as a Cat B project and we believe that the Agency’s competences and experience in facilitating collaborative defence initiatives will provide indispensable support for the successful completion of the project. In pursuing coherence on EU level, we intend to submit a part of the DIVEPACK activities for funding under the Commission’s European Defence Industrial Development Programme (EDIDP).”

 

Americas

Raytheon won a $13.7 million modification to exercise options in support of the Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) Design Agent, in-service support and technical engineering support services. The ESSM program is an international effort to design, develop and test missiles to improve ship defense. It forms part of an international defense agreement between the US and nine of its military allies. The Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (ESSM) (RIM-162) is a medium-range, surface-to-air missile designed and manufactured by Raytheon Missile Systems. The missile is currently in service with the US Navy and some of the 12 NATO Sea Sparrow consortium nations. Work will take place in Arizona, the Netherlands, Norway, Germany, Australia, West Virginia, Canada, Spain, Turkey and Greece. Expected completion will be by December 2020.

The Pentagon awarded $415 million to Battelle Memorial Institute to decontaminate used N95 respirator systems amid the coronavirus pandemic. According to the DoD, which awarded the contract on behalf of the Department of Health and Human Services, the deal should allow Battelle to decontaminate up to 80,000 used N95 respirators per system per day, allowing masks to be reused up to 20 times. Battelle , which develops products across a range of disciplines including robotics and oil drilling and has already set up decontamination sites in several American cities, announced last week that it would be providing decontamination services to healthcare providers at no charge.

Middle East & Africa

The State Department approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to the Government of Morocco of ten AGM-84L Harpoon Block II Air Launched missiles and related equipment for an estimated cost of $62 million. The Government of Morocco had requested to buy 10 AGM-84L Harpoon Block II Air Launched missiles. Also included are containers, spare and repair parts, support and test equipment, publications and technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, US Government and contractor representatives’ technical assistance, engineering and logistics support services, and other related elements of logistics support. The AGM-84 Harpoon is an all-weather, over-the-horizon, anti-ship missile system produced by McDonnell Douglas (now Boeing). Its low-level, sea-skimming cruise capability, active radar guidance and warhead design assure high survivability and effectiveness. The missile is capable of being launched from aircraft, surface ships, submarines, and shore batteries.

Boeing announced that it has successfully completed the first flight of the F-15QA fighter during a 90-minute mission from the Lambert International Airport in St. Louis. The company developed the F-15QA for the Qatar Emiri Air Force. “This successful first flight is an important step in providing the QEAF an aircraft with best-in-class range and payload,” said Prat Kumar, Boeing vice president and F-15 program manager. The F-15QA includes fly-by-wire flight controls, a digital cockpit, modernized sensors, radar and a electronic warfare capabilities — and the world’s fastest mission computer.

Europe

Saab announced that it would introduce reduced working hours for 500 employees at the business unit Aerostructures within the business area Industrial Product and Services (IPS). A majority of these employees will work 60 percent of their regular hours. The agreement is valid from April 14. Until now, the impact of COVID-19 on Saab has been low, given the company’s large order backlog and business model with long-term commitments. Saab’s business unit Aerostructures supplies products to the civil aviation industry, which has been affected considerably by the effects of COVID-19. Following the outbreak, the unit has experienced a reduction in demand and supply chain challenges. Meanwhile, the company noted that its large order backlog and business model with long-term commitments has helped to keep the outbreak impact to a minimum on the group.

Asia-Pacific

The Australian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that exercise Pitch Black 2020 has been canceled to “ensure compliance with COVID-19-related Government restrictions.” The exercise was scheduled to take place in Northern Australia from July 24 till August 14. It was previously reported that Defense was reviewing its options for the multi-lateral exercise, which was to have been held in the Northern Territory skies between July 24 and August 14. However, ongoing restrictions in places across Australia in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have influenced the decision to formally cancel the exercise for 2020.

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Americas

Raytheon Missile Systems won a $30.3 million delivery order to procure 32 Tomahawk Mid-Body Range Safety Subsystems and 32 Flight Test Kits. Tomahawk is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missile in service with the surface ships and submarines of the US and the UK’s Royal Navy. Originally produced by General Dynamics, Tomahawk is currently manufactured by Raytheon. The Tomahawk can strike high-value or heavily defended land targets. The Block II TLAM-A missile achieved initial operating capability in 1984. The missile was first deployed in combat during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. Work under the delivery order will take place in Arizona, Arkansas, Alabama, South Carolina, California, Florida, Missouri and various locations within the continental US. Completion is expected by March 2023.

Last year, a US Air Force F-16 assigned to the 14th Fighter Squadron accidentally dropped an inert GBU-12 bomb outside the range in Japan. Pacific Air Force has now released the mishap report. The Accident Investigation Board found that pilot error was the cause. The investigators have found that “that a failure of communication during an assisted weapons deployment procedure caused the mishap pilot to fail to confirm that the Sensor Point of Interest he had selected was the target to which the other formation was guiding the weapon. Substantially contributing factors include channelized attention, changing weather, and targeting technical error.”

Middle East & Africa

Elbit Systems announced its business update amid the coronavirus pandemic. The company has implemented a number of safety measures across all its sites, including increasing the number of manufacturing line shifts to enhance social distancing. Where feasible, employees are working from home. Elbit has also initiated business continuity plans to meet customer needs. Where necessary the company is working on finding alternative solutions for delivering products to customers, including chartering dedicated cargo aircraft to meet delivery schedules. Additionally, the company is working to leverage its portfolio of leading technologies to fight the pandemic.

Europe

The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency awarded Saab a contract to supply Sweden with firefighting capabilities. The order is for the capability to fight fires with two firefighting aircraft, from April 1 to September 30, through to 2023. Under the contract there is also the opportunity to trigger an option for two more aircraft, beginning with the 2021 fire season. This resource will be available for Sweden and for EU. Saab established aerial firefighting capabilities, using the Air Tractor AT-802 F firefighting aircraft, with the associated pilot and technician skills, as well as the specific permits for their operation. The AT-802 F is a water-bombing aircraft that in the event of a forest fire can release 35,000-50,000 liters of water per hour. The firefighting aircraft will be based in Nyköping, where Saab already has aviation operations for, among other things, aerial target towing and support for the Swedish Coast Guard’s aircraft.

Asia-Pacific

The US State Department approved a possible Foreign Military Sale of 15 Mk 54 lightweight torpedoes to India. The potential $63 million sale includes 16 Mk 54 All Up Round Lightweight Torpedoes, three Mk 54 Exercise Torpedoes, and related equipment. The Mark 54 Lightweight Hybrid Torpedo is a standard anti-submarine warfare torpedo developed by Raytheon and introduced in 2004. It combines the homing section of the Mk 50, and the warhead and propulsion of the Mk 46 improved for better performance in littoral waters.

The US State Department approved the potential foreign military sale of ten AGM-84L Harpoon Block II air launched missiles and related equipment to the Government of India for $92 million. The deal also includes containers, spare and repair parts, support and test equipment, publications and technical documentation, personnel training and training equipment, Specialized Assignment Airlift Missions (SAAM). The Harpoon missile system can perform anti-surface warfare missions to defend critical sea lanes when integrated into the P-8I aircraft.

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Americas

Northrop Grumman won a $12.7 million delivery order for selector antenna in support of the P-8 aircraft program. The P-8A is a militarized version of the Boeing 737 commercial aircraft. The P-8A has an active multi-static and passive acoustic sensor system, inverse synthetic aperture radar, new electronic support measures system, new electro-optical/infrared sensor and a digital magnetic anomaly detector. Its nine-person crew includes a dual-pilot cockpit and five mission crew. The P-8A has workstations with universal multi-function displays, and ready accommodation for additional workstations and workload sharing. Work will take place in Maryland. Estimated completion date is February 13, 2025.

The Brazilian Air Force was forced to take two of its KC-390 transports away from instructional flights in order to airlift medical supplies to areas affected by COVID-19. The Brazilian Air Force received its first Embraer KC-390 transport on September 4. The twin-turbofan-powered KC-390 can be refueled in flight and can be used for in-flight or on-ground refueling of other aircraft. The military aircraft has a cargo bay equipped with an aft ramp similar to Hercules, and is capable of transporting a wide variety of cargo, including armored vehicles.

Middle East & Africa

Bayraktar TB2 UAVS participated in a Qatari military exercise for the first time. The Qatari Ministry of Defense released footage showing Exercise ‘Al-Adheed 2020’ that included brief clips of a Bayraktar TB2 taxiing and taking off. The UAV was not carrying weapons, but the video implied that it carried out precision strikes during live firing at the Qurayn Abu al-Bawl training area in the south of the country. Qatar’s order for six Bayraktar TB2s, three ground control stations, and a training simulator was announced during the DIMDEX show held in Doha in March 2018.

Europe

A Ukrainian MiG-29 had an accident while landing at Melitopol air base on April 10. State Bureau of Investigation said the pilot had violated flight rules during the landing and will be investigated under Article 416 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. The pretrial investigation is under way to probe into the violation of the flight rules, which entails grave consequences. The punishment is imprisonment for a period of five to 15 years. The aircraft made an emergency belly-landing on the runway, one of its wing was damaged. The pilot survived.

RAMSYS GmbH won a €12.1 million and $66.2 million contract modification to exercise options for the Block 1A Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) Guided Missile Round Packs (GRMPs) recertification. The RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile is a small, lightweight, infrared homing surface-to-air missile. The RIM-116 RAM is designed as a high-firepower, low-cost, self-defense system against anti-ship cruise missiles and other asymmetric threats. For all versions of the missile, there is no shipboard support required after missile launch. The original Block 0 design was based upon the infra-red seeker of the Stinger missile, and the warhead, rocket motor and fuse from the Sidewinder missile. The Block 0 configuration uses Radio Frequency for midcourse guidance and transitions to Infrared guidance for terminal engagement. The Block 1A incorporates the added capability of autonomous IR-all-the-way guidance, thus countering advanced anti-ship cruise missiles that do not employ onboard radar seekers. Work will take place in Ottobrunn, Germany and Tucson, Arizona. Expected completion will be by September 2021.

Asia-Pacific

India will likely have to wait till July to get its Rafale jets on home soil, according to The Hindu. The delivery flight home has been delayed due to COVID-19 travel restrictions. Test and support equipment are still stuck in India. Travel restrictions imposed by India on anyone coming from Europe is complicating the situation. Additionally, the lockdown restrictions are expected to continue in France at least till the end of April due to severity of the outbreak. “So, it is only obvious that we expect corresponding delay,” the newspaper cited two sources. India has contracted 36 Rafale multi-role fighter jets from France in fly-away condition with 13 India Specific Enhancements under an $8.5 billion Inter-Governmental Agreement signed in September 2016. As per the IGA, deliveries begin 36 months from signing of contract and will be completed in 67 months.

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Americas

Lockheed Martin won a $10.6 million contract to exercise an option for the Aegis Combat System Engineering Agent (CSEA) efforts. As the developer of the Aegis Combat System, Lockheed Martin continues its 40-year legacy as the AEGIS CSEA for the US Navy. The AEGIS CSEA is responsible for combat system engineering services, including the design, development and life cycle support, for all AEGIS-equipped ships. Work to be performed includes the development and design of engineering and logistics products as well as training to support ship integration, developmental test/operational test events and field technical support will be provided. Work will take place in Moorestown, New Jersey. Expected completion will be by December 2020.

The US Navy awarded Lockheed Martin a $14.9 million modification to procure depot component repair capability for the F-35 hydraulic power generation system and land gear under low rate initial production Lot 11 for the Navy, Air Force and non-Department of Defense (DoD) participants. In November Lockheed won a $184.5 million to establish organic depot level repair capabilities for the F-35 aircraft under a previously awarded low-rate initial production Lot 11 contract. Work will take place in Fort Worth, Texas and Wolverhampton, UK. Expected completion will bet by April 2023.

Middle East & Africa

The Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development’s (ADDED’s) Industrial Development Bureau announced that it was launching a new program to encourage investment in the Emirate’s local industry. Called the Abu Dhabi Local Content program, companies will be incentivized to invest in establishing their supply chains in Abu Dhabi when bidding on contracts for the government. ADDED chairman H.E. Mohammed Ali Al Shorafa said in a statement that private sector investors are expected to benefit from local products, expertise, and talent. Additionally, companies are being encouraged under the ADLC program to ramp up their productivity and to further add value to locally produced products.

Europe

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency said the US State Department approved the sale of Excalibur tactical projectiles to the Netherlands. The deal is valued at $40.55 million and is for 199 Excalibur Increment IB M982Al tactical projectiles. The statement added that deal also included technical assistance, training, associated support equipment, and other related elements of logistics and program support. The Dutch munitions procurement would be put in the field alongside conventional artillery units equipped with the German-made PzH2000NL self-propelled howitzer “to provide precision fires capability in order to reduce collateral damage and increase effectiveness in various areas of operation,” according to the DSCA announcement. Raytheon is the prime contractor.

Asia-Pacific

The US State Department approved a Foreign Military Sale covering support and services for the South Korea’s planned procurement of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, comes with an estimated price tag of $675 million. The Republic of Korea had requested follow-on support and services for its F-35 aircraft, engines, and weapons; publications and technical documentation; support equipment; spare and repair parts; repair and return; test equipment; software delivery and support; pilot flight equipment; personnel training equipment; US Government and contractor technical and logistics support services; and other related elements of program support.

The Thai government has decided not to buy two T-50TH advanced jet trainers made by Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI). The South East Asian country was supposed to buy two jets to increase the fleet to 14 aircraft. The decision to drop the purchase was made so that funds from the defense budget could be allocated to help tackle the COVID-19 crises. The government on April 8 reported 111 new local cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including 42 returnees from Indonesia, raising the total to 2,369. Three more deaths, all of foreigners, took the accumulated toll to 30.

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Americas

GE Aviation won a $9.7 million contract modification, which procures non-recurring engineering for the phase two assembly planning effort for the re-start of T-64 engine core production in support of the H-53E Engine Reliability Improvement Program. The deal funds the phase two assembly planning effort for the GE T64 is a turboshaft engine used in both fixed-wing aircraft and in helicopters, for which it was originally developed. It powers the CH-53E Super Stallion. The Super Stallion is a heavy-lift helicopter operated by the US Navy and Marine Corps as well as the Japanese Navy. Work will take place in Massachusetts, Vermont, North Carolina and Kentucky. Expected completion will be by December 2021.

USAF Global Strike Command chief General Timothy Ray told Air Force Magazine that he wants to have a squadron of modified B-1B bombers that can carry the AGM-183 hypersonic missile on external hardpoints. The B-1B has eight external hardpoints that were designed to carry the AGM-86B Air-Launched Cruise Missile. These hardpoints were covered up except for one on the port side for the Sniper pod. “My goal would be to bring on at least a squadron’s worth of airplanes modified with external pylons on the B-1, to carry the ARRW hypersonic cruise missile,” Ray was quoted as saying. He added that the B-1B test fleet at Edwards Air Force Base will be increased from two to eight aircraft to take some of the “load off the B-52” in hypersonic missile testing. An expanded carriage demonstration on the B-1B was carried out by the 412th Test Wing last year.

Middle East & Africa

The US-led international coalition tasked with fighting Daesh yesterday withdrew from the Abu Ghraib base, west of the capital Baghdad. It has now withdrawn from six locations in Iraq since March 19, when it handed over a position near Al-Qaim close to the Syrian border to the Iraqi military. This was followed by Al-Qayyarah West Air Base in Mosul province on March 26, K1 Air Base near the northern city of Kirkuk on March 31, and Al-Habbaniyah (Al-Taqaddum) Air Base in the western province of Al-Anbar on April 4. CJTF-OIR said all these withdrawals were long planned and reflected the progress that Iraqi forces have made against Islamic State extremists. The coalition will continue to support Iraqi forces “from fewer places, with fewer faces”, according to spokesman Colonel Myles Caggins.

Europe

Estonia has signed a technical agreement with Finland and Latvia enabling it to continue to participate in the program to develop military requirements and a platform for a common wheeled armored vehicle, the Estonian Ministry of Defense announced. The agreement was signed by Kristjan Prikk, permanent secretary in the Estonian MoD, who said, “Our primary goal here is to develop a platform that meets the requirements of Estonian Defense Forces with a favorable price.” The MoD added that the platform could be a possible replacement of its older Pasi armored vehicles, a decision on which will be made with the new Estonian national defense development plan.

Asia-Pacific

First-of-class flight trials for Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN’s) MH-60R ‘Romeo‘ maritime multirole helicopters aboard landing helicopter dock (LHD) vessel HMAS Adelaide will begin shortly, the RAN announced on April 7. The trials, which will take place off the Queensland coast, will determine the safe operating limits of the Lockheed Martin-made anti-submarine- and anti-surface warfare-capable helicopters aboard the 27,500 tonne LHD in a range of sea states and wind speeds at both day and night. They will also include aviation facilities assessments, equipment calibration, and evaluation of the interface between a particular helicopter type and class of ship.

The Japanese Ministry of Defense has revealed that it will spend $235 million in fiscal year 2020 on cyber-security-related activities and programs, including the development of an artificial intelligence-based system to counter cyber attacks. This system is expected to automatically detect malicious e-mails and assess the level of threat by resorting to AI technologies, stated the MoD, adding that JPY30 million has already been earmarked for the current fiscal year for the system’s initial design.

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Americas

General Electric won a $51.5 million contract modification to procure eight General Electric F414-400 spare engines, 11 afterburner modules and 12 low pressure turbine modules for the Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft. The Super Hornet is a twin-engine multirole fighter used by the United States and Australia. The first operational Super Hornet squadron was formed in June 2001. The deal modifies an earlier contract awarded in 2018 and funds the procurement of eight GE F414-400 spare engines, 11 afterburner modules and 12 low pressure turbine modules for the Super Hornet, which is made by Boeing. Work will take place in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont and Kentucky. Expected completion date will be by October 2022.

USS Gerald R. Ford recently completed its first full test of the integrated combat system against fighter aircraft with help from Kfir and Hunter fighters provided by Airborne Tactical Advantage Company. The ship’s Dual Band Radar successfully tracked the tactical aircraft. The ship’s Combat Direction Center simulated engaging the hostile fighters. Ron McCallister, Ford’s combat systems officer, noted the testing was a collaborative effort between Naval Sea Systems Command along with the greater technical community and the ship’s force. “The tests exercise the combat systems suite as a complete unit and ensure maximum availability to meet combat and self-defense mission requirements,” said McCallister. “In the end, the combat systems suite achieves maximum readiness and the Sailors develop more operational and technical competence.”

Middle East & Africa

One of the Malian Armed Forces’ four Embraer EMB 314/A-29 Super Tucano light attack turboprops crashed on April 7. The FAMa announced details of the crash later that day, saying it happened near Sévaré Camp in central Mali. The Malian Air Force’s Base Aérienne 102 is located at Sévaré Airport. Chief of Staff of the Air Force Brigadier General Souleymane Doucouré held a press conference during which he identified the aircraft (TZ-04) and the two Malian pilots who were killed.

Europe

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems won an $8.4 million contract modification for the United Kingdom (UK) MQ-9 contractor logistics support launch and recovery element (LRE). The UK-1 LRE aircrew, readiness spares package-out, and UK-2 logistics readiness support will be performed at multiple stateside and international locations and is expected to be completed September 30, 2021. GA-ASI claims that its Automatic Takeoff and Landing Capability (ATLC) eliminates the need for a ground control station located near the aircraft’s base, which will “drastically reduce airlift requirements when the Remotely Piloted Aircraft is forward deployed.” The first flight of the production-representative MQ-9B SkyGuardian Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) meant for the UK Royal Air Force (RAF) was completed on March 30.

Asia-Pacific

The Mirage 2000 fleet of the Republic of China Air Force (RoCAF) in Taiwan has been deployed to Ching Chuan Kang Air Base. New reports say the main runway at their home base in Hsinchu is being renovated. Only a small number of Mirages are there for quick reaction alert duties. Mirage 2000 is a multirole combat fighter from French aircraft manufacturer Dassault Aviation. It has been operational with the French Air Force since 1984, and has been selected by Abu Dhabi, Egypt, Greece, India, Peru, Qatar, Taiwan and the United Arab Emirates.

Azerbaijan has sent a delegation to Russia to evaluate the MiG-35 and Su-35, the country’s Ministry of Defense has announced. A group of specialists of the Azerbaijani Air Force visited Russian military-industrial enterprises. During meetings with representatives of one of the leaders of the global arms market in Russia, the Rosoboronexport company and the management of military factories, Azerbaijan expressed interest in purchasing the most advanced Russian-made combat aircraft. The Russian side, in turn, expressed its readiness to supply combat aircraft in an amount that meets the requirements of the Azerbaijani Air Force.

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Super Tucano

Embraer’s EMB-314 Super Tucano trainer and light attack turboprop continues to rack up global orders, solidifying its position as the globe’s pre-eminent manned counter-insurgency aircraft. The latest order set of about $180 million expands the plane’s footprint into 3 African states: Angola, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania. They join Brazil, Chile, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and Indonesia as customers for this aircraft.

The Super Tucano is known as the A-29 or ALX in Brazil, but abroad, it’s the EMB 314 successor to Embraer’s widely-used EMB 312 Tucano trainer. A-29 is better for marketing, though, and Embraer is trying to shift the designation. The Super Tucano offers better flight performance than the EMB 312 Tucano, plus armoring and wing-mounted machine guns, weapons integration with advanced surveillance and targeting pods, precision-guided bombs, and even air-to-air missiles. This makes it an excellent territorial defense and close support plane for low-budget air forces, as well as a surveillance asset with armed attack capability. Brazil uses it this way, for instance, alongside very advanced EMB-145 airborne radar and maritime patrol jet platforms. Meanwhile, in Africa…

Contracts & Key Events

(click to view full)

In March 2012, Embraer announced that the total value of all 3 contracts to Angola, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania comes to “more than $180 million” for around 10 planes. This includes “extensive” support, training, and replacement parts packages.

In April 2013, they announced a 4th customer: Senegal, and Ghana joined that list in 2014.

In January 2015, the United Arab Emirates committed UAE to procure a couple dozen Super Tucanos on behalf of Iraq in a deal that is not quite settled.

Angola

Angolan EMB-314
(click to view full)

Angola sits far down Africa’s southwestern coast. The regime maintains a sizable and advanced fighter force by African standards, at least on paper. Questions abound as to how many of the of those Soviet and Russian fighters are still operational. They have ordered 6 Super Tucanos for counter-insurgency roles, which will join 6 ex-Peruvian EMB-312 Tucanos that were bought in 2002.

Angola is an authoritarian regime, and the country’s economy would be in desperate shape if not for recent oil drilling activity off of its coasts. A 2010 report by the conservative US Heritage Foundation tabbed Angola as China’s #1 supplier of oil, passing Saudi Arabia. As is so often true in Africa, the next question involves how much of that oil wealth is ever seen by the population at large. The country went through a long civil war that lasted from the 1980s to 2002, and the northern enclave of Cabinda is still a focus of separatist activity.

Jan 31/13: The first 3 Super Tucanos are formally handed over to the National Air Force of Angloa, at a ceremony held in Embraer’s Gaviao Peixoto facility near Sao Paulo, Brazil.

These first 3 aircraft were to be delivered in 2012, so they’re a bit late. Angola is far from Mali’s headline making war, but as noted above, the country has its own problems. Embraer.

Burkina Faso

This landlocked country in West Africa had already received their 3 Super Tucanos by the time the arch 2012 announcement was made, and were using them on border patrol missions. Adding the Super Tucanos gives the country operational fixed-wing combat aircraft again, though they’re also an AT-802 Air Tractor customer. The AT-802U variant can easily be reconfigured for armed roles, or act as the locust sprayer the country’s AT-802 was purchased to be. In that part of the world, the locusts are a security risk that can easily measure up to any regional turmoil.

Burkina Faso has a good record of free and fair elections by African standards, and dealt with widespread spring 2011 protests through the political process. Its neighbors are Benin, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Mali, Niger, and Togo.

In March 2012, we wrote that “some of [these neighbors] harbor regional turmoil that risks spilling over. The Super Tucanos should help to keep an eye on things, and provide a low-key deterrent to trouble.” Things certainly have spilled over in Mali, and the conflict is not confined to that country’s borders. Burkina Faso is a member of the USA’s Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership (TSCTP), and its Super Tucanos are probably fairly busy at the moment.

Ghana

Ghana sits directly south of Burkina Faso, between the Ivory Coast and Togo. Until recently lauded as a model of development among its sub-Saharan peers, the country has been facing rising inflation and public deficits as of late. A mounting backlog of unpaid wages to defense and security contractors has been piling up. Piracy has also been booming in the Gulf of Guinea, with an oil tanker gone missing for a week off the coast of Ghana in June 2014.

Mark Owen Woyongo, at the time Minister of Defense, first said in March 2014 that the acquisition of 6 Super Tucanos was under consideration, for use at a flying school to be built in Tamale, Ghana’s 3rd city. President John Dramani Mahama then confirmed in November 2014 that the country would buy an unspecified quantity of Super Tucanos, along with Chinese Z-9 helicopters, more M-17 Russian helos, and an additional C-295 tactical transport. The Z-9s are expected to be delivered in June 2015 at the forthcoming Tamale training base. The Super Tucanos are meant to be used for training and attack.

Confirmation came on 18 February from President John Dramani Mahama, indicating that five Super Tucanos will be purchased, along with the Z-9s and other equipment.

December 14/15: Ghana is set to increase it’s fleet of Embraer Super Tucanos in 2016. The order of four more of the aircraft will see a previous contract increase to nine in total. The acquisition is also to include logisitical support and training for pilots as well as maintenance training for mechanics. The announcement comes as the Ghanaian government has been improving the capabilities of its air force to support troops participating in UN peace keeping missions in the region.

Mauritania

Mauritanian EMB-314
(click to view full)

This country, which sits on Africa’s northwest coasts, is simply mentioned as a customer that “chose the A-29 Super Tucano to carry out counter-insurgency missions.” The country has a very small air force, and its 3-4 ex-French EMB 312 Tucano aircraft are old. Given the overall order total given, and generally understood costs for the Super Tucano, they may have bought just 1 aircraft.

The country is active in the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom – Trans Sahara (OEF-TS), including operations across borders in cooperation with its neighbor Mali, and has fought a number of skirmishes in Mauritania with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. This has been a balancing act for the USA, which has also issued reports citing Mauritania’s Arab rulers for organized repression of its black population, up to and including slavery and human trafficking. That’s a very old pattern for the area, but it’s even more distressing to current sensibilities.

It wasn’t distressing enough to block sales, however, even in a racially mixed country like Brazil.

Oct 22/12: Embraer hands over “the first light attack and advanced training A-29 Super Tucano turboprops to the Air Force of Mauritania”, for use in “border surveillance missions.” The handover ceremony takes place at Embraer’s Sao Paulo facility, and their use of the plural form is interesting. Embraer.

Nigeria

April 11/17: The Trump administration is moving ahead with a plan to sell as much as $600 million worth of A-29 Super Tucano aircraft and related equipment to help the Nigerian Air Force in their fight against the jihadist group Boko Haram. Initial permission had been granted under the previous Obama administration but was put on hold following Nigeria’s bombing of a refugee camp in January. Congress is expected to receive notification on the sale of 12 Super Tucanos and sophisticated targeting gear within weeks, and Trump plans to go ahead with other foreign defense sales delayed under Obama by human rights concerns.

May 9/16: Approval is being sought by the Pentagon for the sale of up to 12 A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft to Nigeria in order to increase military support for the West African nation’s fight against Boko Haram militants. Congress, which needs to approve the sale, has not yet been notified of the foreign military sale. Increased support from Washington comes as new Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari moves to reform a government and military notorious for graft and corruption.

Senegal

April 10/13: The Senegalese Air Force signs a contract for 3 A-29 Super Tucano light attack/ advanced training turboprops. The order includes operation and the installation of a training system for pilots and mechanics (TOSS) within Senegal, which will create an independent national training capability – and possibly even a regional capability, if other A-29 customers nearby make arrangements. The cost isn’t revealed, but financing will be handled by Brazil’s BNDES National Economic and Social Development Bank (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social).

Embraer’s release states that the planes will be deployed on “border surveillance and internal security missions.” Senegal is a former french colony that sits just below A-29 operator Mauritania, on Africa’s west coast. Its other neighbor is Mali, which was recently the subject of a multinational fight against salafist Islamists, led by the French. If you cross southern Mali, you immediately reach another A-29 customer in Burkina Faso. Embraer.

Mali

April 9/20: Crash One of the Malian Armed Forces’ four Embraer EMB 314/A-29 Super Tucano light attack turboprops crashed on April 7. The FAMa announced details of the crash later that day, saying it happened near Sévaré Camp in central Mali. The Malian Air Force’s Base Aérienne 102 is located at Sévaré Airport. Chief of Staff of the Air Force Brigadier General Souleymane Doucouré held a press conference during which he identified the aircraft (TZ-04) and the two Malian pilots who were killed.

Additional Readings

• DID – Africa: The Next Defense Market Opportunity?