European Union

Weekly schedule of President Charles Michel 7-13 March 2022

Main agenda items, approximate timing, public sessions and press opportunities.

Four far-right French MEPs have been barred from official election-monitoring missions after they took part in trips to Russia in the run-up to its invasion of Ukraine.

A new round of Russia sanctions affecting ports, oligarchs' families and trust funds is foreseen for early next week.

Written by Jakub Przetacznik with Linda Tothova.

Although Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, it was preceded by long and repetitive military build-ups at the border, as well as by joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises on Belarusian territory. While Ukraine defends its territory with a much more motivated army, it is nevertheless smaller than and not as well equipped as the Russian forces. Military aid is being provided by EU Member States and other like-minded countries, including the United States, Canada and United Kingdom.

The attack

Russian forces entered Ukraine mainly around the country’s borders with Russia and Crimea, while Kyiv was attacked via Belarusian territory. The offensive has been much slower than Russia initially appeared to expect. As of 20:00 CET on 3 March 2022, Russia had taken control of land along the northern and south-eastern Ukrainian border with Russia, as well border regions north-west of Crimea. Russia has occupied only one regional capital to date (Kherson, 290 000 inhabitants). Russia also bombed cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and the Azov Sea city of Mariupol, which is reportedly ‘near to humanitarian catastrophe’.

The invasion is a flagrant violation of United Nations Charter Article 2 (4) prohibiting ‘use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state’. Ukraine, which is not a member of any military alliance, defends itself in accordance with UN Charter Article 51 establishing an inherent right to individual or collective self-defence in case of an armed attack against a UN member.

Balance of power Ukraine and Russia: Armed forces (2021)

With 900 000 troops, the Russian armed forces are over four times greater in number than the Ukrainian forces, which consisted of 196 000 troops in 2021. The Russian army can deploy 280 000 troops, with other armed forces, such as the navy, or the 180 000-strong command and support structures, being limited in scope for use in the war on Ukraine. It is estimated that there are currently 150 000 Russian soldiers present in Ukraine, while around 20 000 remain ready in reserve. Crucially, however, the Russian army is better equipped. Prior to the invasion, Russia disposed of 15 857 armoured combat vehicles, in comparison to Ukraine’s 3 309 – almost five times more, as well as over ten times the number of aircraft (1 391) compared with the Ukrainians (132). In January 2022, Ukraine reorganised its Territorial Defence Forces (TDF) with a new reserve force, which in mid-February 2022 were reportedly aiming at reaching 1.5‑2 million members. The actual number of TDF soldiers is unknown. In stark contrast to questions regarding the morale of the Russian army, the Ukrainian forces are highly motivated.

Cyber aspects
In the weeks preceding the war, Russia attacked Ukrainian websites in the context of its hybrid war on the country. In the past, cyber-attacks have cut off electricity networks in Kyiv. However, such attacks are not currently being seen, leading to speculation, with possible explanations ranging from Ukrainians protecting their information technology (IT) network, to possible use of Ukrainian IT infrastructure by Russian military forces. However, cyber-attack remains possible. At the same time, Ukraine has so far been able to communicate effectively with the world to provide information about the situation in the country. Ukraine is mobilising its compatriots to attack Russian websites related to the Kremlin-through the ‘Ukraine IT Army’, while other independent groups (including Anonymous and Cyber Partisans), have declared responsibility for attacks against Russia’s banks, state media and a Belarusian railway network used to move troops from Russia to Ukraine.

Russia’s military expenditure is traditionally high, equalling US$62.2 billion in 2021 – over 14 times greater than Ukraine’s US$4.3 billion. Following Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russian military expenditure reached as much as 5.4 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016, and has fallen below 4 % of GDP only twice. Ukraine, with its smaller economy, decided to invest its resources more peacefully, with military expenditure averaging 3.2 % of GDP in 2014‑2020, although still well above EU levels.

NATO response

A meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Heads of State and Government issued a statement on Russia’s attack on Ukraine on 25 February 2022, expressing solidarity with the Ukrainian people and their democratically elected institutions, and condemning Russia’s full-scale invasion, described as a ‘terrible strategic mistake, for which Russia will pay a severe price, both economically and politically, for years to come’. As invasion has consequences for NATO’s deterrence and defence posture, consultations under Article 4 of the NATO Treaty have taken place, and defensive land and air forces in eastern NATO countries, as well as maritime assets across the NATO area, have been deployed. The commitment to collective defence under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty has been reconfirmed. The NATO Secretary General invited Finland, Sweden and the EU to join the meeting.

During a 24 February 2022 press briefing, US President Joe Biden stressed that there will not be a direct military confrontation between the USA and Russian forces. However, if the conflict extends to the Euro-Atlantic area, the USA ‘will defend every inch of NATO territory’ and meet its Article 5 commitments. The statement was followed by deployment of additional US troops to European NATO states.

EU response

The European Council immediately condemned ‘the Russian Federation’s unprovoked and unjustified military aggression against Ukraine’, calling for an immediate ceasefire and withdrawal of Russian forces. This was followed by a series of EU sanctions. Among the financial assistance to Ukraine, the Council approved two decisions providing Ukraine with €500 million for military aid and equipment. In a historic move, the EU will provide €450 million (CFSP 2022/338), to be financed by the European Peace Facility, for military equipment designed to deliver lethal force. A further €50 million (CFSP 2022/339) is for equipment and supplies not designed to deliver lethal force, such as personal protective equipment, first aid kits and fuel. A majority of EU Member States are delivering weapons or military aid in some form to Ukraine.

European Parliament position

In its resolution of 1 March 2022, the Parliament condemned Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and demanded that Russia cease all military activities and withdraw from the country. The Parliament called on EU Member States to accelerate provision of defensive weapons for Ukraine. The Parliament also supported increased EU-Ukraine intelligence cooperation regarding the ongoing war and called for the EU institutions to work towards granting Ukraine EU candidate country status. However, mutual defence and solidarity clauses in the EU Treaties only apply to Member States.

Article 42(7) TEU (Mutual defence clause) obliges EU Member States to aid and assist ‘by all means in their power’ a Member State that has become a ‘victim of armed aggression on its territory’. Article 222 TFEU (Solidarity clause) stipulates that EU members ‘shall act jointly’ upon request by the relevant state authorities, if another Member State suffers a terrorist attack, natural or man-made disaster.

Read this ‘at a glance’ on ‘Russia’s war on Ukraine: Military balance of power‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

In the short term, limiting RT and Sputnik's ability to spread disinformation about the appalling human cost of the war in Ukraine may appear a timely and proportionate response. In the long run, questions remain over their wisdom and effectiveness.

The war on Ukraine will dominate the European Parliament's plenary meeting in Strasbourg too. Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas will discuss Europe's new security reality with MEPs.

Companies around the globe grappled with a dilemma over what to do with their Russian investments as Moscow laid out their options: stay in the country, exit entirely or hand over their holdings to local managers until they return.

While the Polish government is portraying itself as a leader in the EU response to the war in Ukraine, problems with rule of law should not be ignored, said Stéphane Séjourné, leader of the liberals in the European Parliament.

Two citizens' initiatives were presented to the parliament in Helsinki this week, one demanding Nato membership and one demanding a referendum on Nato membership. Both gathered the needed 50,000 signatures in a matter of days.

The invasion of Ukraine, and the unfolding human tragedy, has served as a sharp wake–up call for the West and the EU. It has also prompted an impressive display of unity.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a U-turn by the UK government, which has fast-tracked its Economic Crime Bill, legislation promised since 2016, in order to help "flush out the oligarchs, criminals and kleptocrats".

EU justice ministers decided to cut judicial cooperation with Belarus and Russia in areas dealing with crime and extradition, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "Criminal cooperation, as you know, requires trust and, of course, the respect of international law," said French justice minister Eric Dupond-Moretti, speaking on behalf of the EU presidency. Requests for cooperation will instead be dealt with in a case by case basis, said Dupond-Moretti.

NATO foreign ministers on Friday (4 March) said they would not set up a no-fly zone over Ukraine or involve their troops in any intervention there, but promised other aid to Kyiv.

Right of Reply: Viktor Orban's office reponds to EUobserver

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Russia's parliament on Friday (4 March) passed a law imposing a jail term of up to 15 years for spreading intentionally "fake" news about the military, stepping up the information war over the conflict in Ukraine.

A majority of Swedes are in favour of joining NATO, a poll showed on Friday, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine spurring a rapid shift in attitudes in a country long known for neutrality.

Written by Sidonia Mazur.

While Ukraine has received considerable support from the EU and European financial institutions since 2014, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, launched on 24 February 2022, has triggered a historic and twofold mobilisation of EU funds – for humanitarian action and military support. The European Commission has announced over €500 million in financing for humanitarian aid and the Council has decided to use the off-budget European Peace Facility (EPF) to assist Ukraine with €500 million in military aid. For the first time, the EU will direct its funds, €450 million, towards purchasing lethal weapons for a country at war, through the EPF. Should this funding prove insufficient, however, further mobilisation of the EU budget might be necessary. In its 1 March 2022 resolution, the European Parliament announced that it expects the EU and EU Member States ‘to activate any EU budget instruments available’.

State of play

Ukraine has developed a strong partnership with the European Union since 2014, including the signing and implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement. The EU has assisted Ukraine financially, with EU and European financial institutions allocating over €17 billion in grants and loans to Ukraine to support the implementation of a broad reform agenda. This includes €5.6 billion via five macro financial assistance programmes. The EU has allocated more than €193 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine since 2014, to assist victims of the armed conflict in the east of Ukraine. The EU has also provided grants worth €200 million to help Ukraine fight the Covid‑19 pandemic.

The Russian military invasion of Ukraine has aggravated the existing humanitarian crisis in the east of Ukraine and triggered a new catastrophe. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, over 1 million refugees have already fled Ukraine to neighbouring countries, mainly Poland, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, Romania and Russia. The European Commission estimates that up to 6.5 million people might be displaced, leading as many as 3.5 million to seek international protection, mainly in the EU. Many more millions will face extreme conditions while remaining in Ukraine.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a paradigm shift in the EU’s approach to financing lethal military equipment. For the first time, the EU will purchase lethal weapons. The financial tool enabling this acquisition is the new European Peace Facility.

Since the beginning of 2022, the military threat to Ukraine has weighed heavily on investor confidence, causing a steady outflow of capital that has endangered Ukraine’s economic and financial stability.

EU response Humanitarian assistance

As the humanitarian situation in Ukraine deteriorates, the European Commission is providing emergency assistance. On 28 February 2022, the Commission announced €90 million for emergency aid programmes to help civilians in Ukraine and those displaced to Moldova. This EU humanitarian aid will provide food, water, health, shelter and help cover people’s basic needs.

The EU Civil Protection Mechanism has been activated, with offers from Member States including essential medical care items and civil protection support.

On 1 March 2022, the European Commission announced an additional €500 million from the EU budget for humanitarian aid in Ukraine and for refugees from Ukraine. It should be noted that the entire EU budget allocation for humanitarian aid worldwide for 2022 is slightly over €2 billion.

Military assistance

Under Article 41(2) TEU, the EU budget cannot be used to finance expenditure having military or defence implications, meaning common foreign and security policy (CFSP) operations outside the EU. However, Article 41(2) TEU also provides that such expenditure can be charged to the Member States. The novel European Peace Facility (EPF), created in 2021, is a financial tool outside the EU budget, financed by EU Member States based on a distribution key linked to gross national income. Using the EPF enables the EU to provide the armed forces of partner countries with infrastructure and equipment, including weapons. On 28 February 2022, the Council published its decision ((CFSP) 2022/338) on an assistance measure under the EPF for the supply of military equipment and platforms designed to deliver lethal force to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The amount decided is €450 million for lethal arms and lethal assistance. It should be noted that the total budget for the EPF for 2022 is €540 million. This constitutes a paradigm shift, as the European Union is financing the acquisition of arms for the first time. Austria, Ireland and Malta are not participating in this measure.

At the same time the Council adopted a decision (CFSP) 2022/339 on an assistance measure under the EPF to provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with €50 million in support. The measure shall finance the provision of equipment and supplies not designed to deliver lethal force, such as personal protective equipment, first aid kits and fuel. All EU Member States will participate.

European Parliament response

The European Parliament strongly condemns the Russian Federation’s aggression and invasion of Ukraine. In its resolution of 1 March 2022, the Parliament called ‘for the EU and its Member States to continue providing the strongest possible economic and financial support to Ukraine, as well as macro-financial and technical assistance wherever needed, including in defence- and security-related areas, to activate any EU budget instruments available and to develop a long-term strategy to support Ukraine’s efforts in strengthening the resilience of its democratic institutions and economy’. Moreover Parliament called for ‘the EU institutions to work towards granting EU candidate status to Ukraine, in line with Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union and on the basis of merit, and, in the meantime, to continue to work towards its integration into the EU single market along the lines of the Association Agreement’.

On 16 February, the European Parliament approved a €1.2 billion macro-financial loan to help Ukraine cover its external financing needs in 2022. Even before the 24 February Russian invasion, Ukraine faced significant economic challenges, which will worsen even further under the current circumstances. The loan is expected to be paid out to Ukraine during the next 12 months, in two tranches, the first being due in March 2022.

Possible further developments

The EU is equipped with a plethora of programmes aimed at supporting EU external action. These programmes are financed mainly by the EU budget. As the situation in Ukraine evolves, different elements of this system can be mobilised. The same applies to the financing of the needs relating to facilitating the welcome for refugees from Ukraine in the EU.

If the financing needs related to supporting Ukraine and those fleeing the invasion go beyond the multiannual financial framework 2020-2027 (MFF) agreement, there might be a need to use flexibility or even revise the MFF spending ceilings. This is a political and budgetary process that would need to involve both the Council and the European Parliament.

(The figures used in this briefing reflect the situation as of 3 March 2022 at 18:00 CET.)

Read this ‘at a glance’ on ‘Russia’s war on Ukraine: EU budget response‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.