Sechs Jahre lang wurde unter der Klimarahmenkonvention UNFCCC verhandelt, nachdem 2009 in Kopenhagen der erste Anlauf zu einem langfristigen Klimaregime jenseits des Kyoto-Protokolls gescheitert war. Auf dem Pariser Klimagipfel 2015 sollen nun die 195 UNFCCC-Vertragsstaaten die Weichen für ein neues Regime stellen, indem sie sich darüber einigen, wie sie ab 2020 mit dem Klimaschutz, der Anpassung an den Klimawandel, möglichen Verlusten und Schäden, dem Technologietransfer und der Klimafinanzierung verfahren wollen.
Für einen Erfolg in Paris sind zwei Bausteine wichtig.
Erstens muss es gelingen, die gemeldeten Klimaziele (INDCs – Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) in einer verbindlichen Form zu fixieren und regelmäßig zu überprüfen. Damit würde die „firewall“ zwischen den Industrie- und den Entwicklungsländern unter der UNFCCC aufgehoben, die bislang dafür gesorgt hat, dass sich die Schwellenländer für den Klimaschutz nicht zuständig fühlten. Zweitens muss das neue Regime Staaten zu einem umfassenden und nachhaltigen Klimarisikomanagement befähigen. Dazu gehören mehr Anstrengungen bei der Anpassung an den Klimawandel und die entsprechende finanzielle Unterstützung auch nach 2020. Nur wenn das Pariser Abkommen eine Balance zwischen diesen Bausteinen herstellt, wird ein Konsens möglich sein, auf dessen Basis 2016 weitere Details geklärt werden können.
Die Studie zeigt auf, warum trotz der hohen Ansprüche die Chance groß ist, dass bei der 21. Vertragsstaatenkonferenz (COP21, Conference of the Parties) in der französischen Hauptstadt ein Abkommen verabschiedet wird, welche Rolle die großen Player USA, China, Indien und die EU dabei spielen und wie Deutschland 2016 weiterhin dazu beitragen kann, dass das neue Regime ab 2020 funktioniert.
Presidents Milosevic, Tudjman, and Izetbegovic formalize in Paris the Dayton Accords initialed weeks earlier, Wikimedia, http://bit.ly/1NZD6TG
The 20th anniversary of the Dayton Accords (November 21, 1995) is much in the news. A conference this week at the University of Dayton includes President Bill Clinton and several principles from the negotiations. HBO’s documentary, The Diplomat, explores Dayton’s chief negotiator, Richard Holbrooke. Continuing trouble in divided societies like Iraq, Syria, Ukraine and elsewhere illustrates how significant was the Dayton agreement that ended the war in Yugoslavia. But many questions remain.
A wide range of analysts are reassessing Dayton. The U.S. Institute of Peace was ahead of the curve, with a conference in 2014. More recently, Stratfor described the risk of declining EU influence in Bosnia, and the risk of renewed violence. The Weekly Standard offered a withering analysis of the agreement, cementing ethnic divisions as political divisions (three presidents, three police forces, etc.), discriminating against other minorities, and creating an EU colonial master—all of which resulted in a stagnant and unreformed economy. Two scholars in The Washington Post described Dayton as a terrible model for understanding Syria—misunderstanding (as they said Dayton did) the causes of the war and the solutions. An article in Foreign Policy asked straight out: Is war about to break out in the Balkans?
Based on my recent travels in Serbia and Bosnia, it seems clear that the relationships inside Bosnia and between Bosnia and Serbia remain strained, at best. Competing narratives over history, that now includes the 1990s and the subsequent peace, continue. And the role of Islam itself remains a seemingly minor, but not fully understood, factor.
Young Serbs feel judged, and misjudged, as the perpetrators of genocide rather than as one side of a complicated story, or even as victims. This summer’s commemorations of the 1995 massacre in Srebrenica were a continuation of a Western narrative, they say, that forgets or deliberately obscures atrocities on all sides, and that overstates an admittedly terrible war crime as genocide. They recognize that their path to Europe, that is, membership in the EU, has been delayed for a variety of reasons but not least of all because of these prejudices against them.
In Bosnia, meanwhile, the divided government contributes to an anemic economy, with an unemployment rate of 60% for young people. Bosnian Serbs have special access to Serbia, including Serbian passports, and therefore a possible future route into the EU economy. Bosnian Croats can get Croatian passports, making them essentially already members of the EU. Bosniaks, whom we called in the 1990s Bosnian Muslims, are being pulled in competing directions by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. The number of Bosniaks attracted to ISIS or other jihadi groups remains limited, but not zero.
A farmer in Bugojno, Bosnia, http://govt396.com/2014/10/19/back-to-bosnia-gallery-1/
A critical difference, however, seems to be the view of the future. The many young Serbs I met were embarrassed and frustrated by the indignities that their country still bears for its role in the war of the 1990s. And it has not forgotten the NATO bombing of their country in 1999—indeed, it leaves the partially-destroyed former Ministry of Defense building “as is” on a major thoroughfare. But the young Serbs were at least hopeful that membership in the EU, that golden ticket, was a possibility and indeed was nearing, however slowly.
The young people I met in Sarajevo—equally smart and ambitious and hardworking as their Belgrade peers—had no such hope. They knew that the political divisions within their country, many of which were driven by the same divisions that led to war in the 1990s and that were made permanent by the Dayton Accords, prevent any reasonable path to the EU, and even any reasonable working governance in their own country. Two young women I talked with said they wanted to rebuild a multi-ethnic country, but that the economy, health care, and corruption compelled many of their friends to emigrate. Bosnia’s most recent elections were decently run, but seemed to offer few solutions.
The danger for Bosnia, Europe, and all of us, is that this hopelessness will allow violence—ethnic or jihadi—to re-emerge. The task for the EU, for Bosnia’s benefit and for its own, is to help Bosnia find a new path forward.
Investment in research and innovation is at the heart of ensuring a competitive and efficient European defence and technological industrial base. An important step has been taken today with the agreement the European Commission and the European Defence Agency (EDA) signed to dedicate €1.4m to finance a limited number of concrete projects on emerging technologies in defence as well as activities linked to certification for military and civil uses.
Jorge Domecq, EDA Chief Executive, said: “Research and Technology is key for defence. The Pilot Project should add value to the ongoing collaboration in research of the Member States. It prepares for bigger initiatives such as the Preparatory Action for Defence Research that will focus on European priorities and address areas where the Member States can no longer act alone and where critical mass needs to be maintained. As such the Pilot Project is an important step towards Europe’s future defence capabilities and a strong and competitive Industrial base.”
This agreement follows an initiative of the European Parliament and is a first agreement between the European Commission and the European Defence Agency.
The European Defence Agency will provide its expertise and will run the projects on behalf, and in close cooperation, with the Commission.
The EDA Steering Board tasked the Agency to support Member States in the setting up of the Commission’s Preparatory Action and recently adopted the modalities of implementation by EDA for the Pilot Project.
During the third Helicopter Tactics Instructors Course (HTIC), aircrew members from across Europe were working hard to master their skills. With successful delivery of the ground and simulator phase at RAF Linton-on-Ouse in the UK, and the phase at Vidsel test range near Lulea in northern Sweden, twelve student instructors from Austria, Germany, Sweden and the UK graduated from the course with Bronze or Silver HTI qualifications, corresponding to their experience and skills level.
It was the first case that the HTIC was delivered under an EDA Category B Programme with its own approved Programme Arrangement signed in March 2015 by Germany, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
The HTIC as a multinational tactical training course involved four helicopter types: Austrian Kiowa, Swedish Air Force Blackhawk and NH90, Chinook from the UK. It engaged more than one hundred military and civilian staff, and included more than two hundred hours of live flying.
The aim of HTIC is to teach experienced helicopter aircrew how to instruct tactics in the air and on the ground. It covers topics such as fighter jets evasion, electronic warfare against surface to air radar threats, convoy escort, vehicle check points and operating in the low-tech threat environment.
A wide range of assets to provide the correct learning environment were required. The excellent support was provided by the Swedish Armed Forces with their Gripen fighter jets from 211 and 212 Squadron, the SK60 trainer aircraft and the ground-based radar defence systems as well as by the UK with their Hawk aircraft from 100 Squadron.
For the first time, the Staff Instructors included graduates from the previous courses. The two returning Swedish Instructors prove that the course can be self-sustaining and is able to achieve its aim of developing an internationally recognised cadre of tactics instructors who, in turn, can continue to deliver courses in the future.
The HTIC is a high-value, intensive course that forges close links between all participants, creating a tight-knit community. Experience and knowledge are shared openly and honestly, and working on the principle of adopting best practices, continual improvement and standardisation serve as a constant theme. Everyone works together, harmonising tactics, techniques and procedures, with ever closer interoperability being the final goal. Through this international training, crews prepare for the coalition operations for the future. They train the way they fight so that they can fight the way they have trained – together!
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