Defense`s Feeds

Americas

The US Navy took delivery of the newest Virginia-class fast-attack submarine Montana (SSN 794) on Monday. Montana (SSN 794) completed sea trials last month. It is the third of the 10-ship group of Virginia-class submarines known as Block IV. Virginia-class submarines displace 7,835 tons, with a hull length of 377 feet and a diameter of 34 feet. They are capable of speeds in excess of 25 knots and can dive to a depth greater than 800 feet, while carrying Mark 48 advanced capability torpedoes and Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Overhaul Support Services LLC won two contracts in support of the CH-47 Chinook. swashplates. A $15.8 million deal ist to overhaul aft control swashplates for the helicopter. A $12.5 million contract provides the overhaul of forward control swashplates. Estimated completion date is March 13, 2027. The CH-47 Chinook helicopter transports troops, artillery, supplies and equipment to the battlefield with other applications ranging from medical evacuation, aircraft recovery, parachute drop, search and rescue to disaster relief, firefighting and heavy construction.

Middle East & Africa

Israel Shipyards, which manufactures vessels, announced Sunday that it has won an agreement to supply two vessels and various services to a government customer in Africa. The value of the deal, in which Israel Shipyards will supply the vessels over a period of about 22 months, is about 10.7 million euros. The company does not specify the model of the vessel, but Israel Defense has learned it is a new model made by Israel Shipyards that is being sold for the first time.

Europe

Latvian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Artis Pabriks has confirmed the country’s interest in buying Bayraktar TB2 combat drones from Turkey, which have been used on battlefields in Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Iraq; and now in Ukraine. In an interview with Nikkei Asia on March 12, Pabriks said Latvia “is interested in acquiring from Turkey the kind of armed drones Ukraine’s military has been using against invading Russian forces.”

Germany will buy up to 35 copies of the F-35 fighter jet, reversing years-long plans that saw the fifth-generation warplane eliminated from consideration, defense leaders announced Monday. The planes will take over by 2030 the nuclear-weapons mission from the aging fleet of Tornado aircraft, Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said during a joint statement with Air Force Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz in Berlin.

Asia-Pacific

The Philippine Air Force (PAF) is expected to begin receiving the first tranche of 17 new Mil Mi-17 twin-engine multirole transport helicopters from Russia by the end of 2023, amid the continuing Ukrainian conflict. Philippines Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana said in a statement to the media that the contract and the initial down payment for the Mi-17 acquisition project had been completed before Russia began its military operations in Ukraine.

Today’s Video

WATCH: C-130 Hercules | What It’s Like To Fly Inside

Americas

Northrop Grumman won a $17 million modification, which adds scope to provide for the production, delivery, and installation of Link 16 Crypto-Modernization/Hybrid Beyond Line of Sight capabilities on 15 E-2D Advanced Hawkeye aircraft. The E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (AHE) is the newest variant of the E-2 aircraft platform. It features a state-of-the-art radar with a two-generation leap in capability and upgraded aircraft systems that will improve supportability and increase readiness. Work will take place in Florida, Virginia, Illinois, California and New York. Estimated completion date is May 2023.

The US Air Force, the US Navy, and the US Marine Corps will have an autonomous unmanned aerial vehicle that will need to increase the combat capability, accuracy, and concentration of the US military during air battles. The ‘Aggressor’ aircraft, dubbed Bandit, is a training UAV and its construction has been given the green light, Jane’s reports.

Middle East & Africa

Saudi Arabia’s Advanced Communications and Electronics Systems (ACES) inked an agreement with a Chinese defense firm to design and manufacture military drones in the kingdom. The joint venture is called “Aerial Solutions”. It was announced during the World Defense Show 2022, held from March 6 to 9 in Riyadh.

Europe

Israeli small arms manufacture Emtan has won the Spanish Civil Guard contract for the supply of a new MZ-4P 5.56 x 45 mm caliber assault rifle to equip personnel from various units worth almost six million euros – 5,929,000 euros. According to Infodefensa.com, the price offered per unit is 850 euros, without VAT. The contract initially contemplates the supply of a minimum of 3,500 units over the next two years, although everything indicates that the final order will be considerably higher.

During the acquisition of three Lockheed Martin C-130J-30 and KC-130J “Super Hercules” aircraft each, the German Air Force decided to equip all aircraft with HENSOLDT’s latest generation of defence sensor technology. With MILDS Block 2, the company is supplying a total of 35 sensors (five per aircraft and five units for lab use) to Danish company Terma A/S, which is managing the integration of the systems at Lockheed Martin through Terma Inc. The contracts were signed in 2020. So far, 20 sensors and the ordered desiccant-kits have already been delivered. By January 2023, the remaining 15 sensors will be delivered. The first “Hercules” for the German Air Force was handed over in Évreux/Fauville (France) on February 19, 2022 to the Franco-German air-transport squadron. With MILDS Block 2, HENSOLDT is also helping to close the capability gap created by the retirement of the C-160 “Transall”.

Asia-Pacific

A Global Hawk acquired by Japan has arrived home at Misawa Air Base on the morning of March 12. It is the first of three unmanned aerial vehicles ordered by Japan. The Global Hawk’s mission is to provide a broad spectrum of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance collection capabilities to support joint combatant forces in worldwide peacetime, contingency and crisis operations. The system can be used to cooperatively address common regional challenges such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, piracy, terrorism and other issues affecting the region.

Today’s Video

WATCH: First Flight of 1st Lockheed C-130J Super Hercules for the Luftwaffe (German Air Force)

Americas

Bell Boeing won a $24.3 million contract modification, which increases scope to provide additional MV-22 Common Configuration Readiness and Modernization in-service and over and above repair support. The V-22 Osprey is a joint-service, medium-lift, multimission tilt-rotor aircraft developed by Boeing and Bell Helicopters. Boeing is responsible for the fuselage, landing gear, avionics, electrical and hydraulic systems, performance and flying qualities. Work will take place in Pennsylvania and Texas. Estimated completion will be in June 2023.

General Dynamics won a $12.3 million contract modification for Abrams systems technical support. The M1 Abrams is a third generation American main battle tank. An upgrade of the Abrams M1A1 main battle tank, the M1A2 features an improved commander’s weapon station, independent thermal viewer, an inter-vehicular information system, and an enhanced position/navigation system. Work under the modification will take place in Michigan. Estimated completion date is February 28, 2023.

Middle East & Africa

Aviation won a $13 million deal, which provides pilot, enlisted aircrew, and maintenance training support services as well as program management and administrative support services for the government of Kuwait. Work will take place in Oklahoma and Kuwait. Estimated completion date is in March 2025.

Europe

The Defense Ministry of Slovakia has received word from the United States that the delivery of F-16s that it has ordered will be delayed by 12 to 14 months. The Pentagon awarded a $799 million contract to Lockheed Martin for the production of 14 F-16 Block 70 fighters back in 2019. The jets will now arrive home in 2024.

A foreign company has approached Ukraine’s state-owned Ukroboronprom to provide the country’s Air Force with six Antonov AN-158 twin-engine passenger aircraft. Although these aircraft cannot participate in combat, they can perform special flights to deliver everything the Air Force needs under wartime conditions, Ukroboronprom’s head Yuriy Husyev said in a statement. The aircraft will first undergo maintenance and repair.

Asia-Pacific

India has admitted that one of its BrahMos supersonic cruise missile was accidentally fired into Pakistan on March 9. The missile was fired due to a technical malfunction during routine maintenance. According to Pakistan, the missile landed in an area called Mian Channu. No one was hurt in the incident.

Today’s Video

WATCH: Slovak Air Force student pilots training in Tucson for transition to the new Block 70 F-16s.

Here are the abstracts from the latest issue of our Russian Media Analysis newsletter. You can also download the full text PDF version.

1. Invasion of Ukraine: Putin’s speech

In a February 24 speech, carried in full by Krasnaya Zvezda, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin gave remarks that sought to provide background and justification to Russian actions in Ukraine. As his past speeches, this one offered an extensive overview of his grievances against the United States and the West and what he perceives as disregard for Russian interests in the post-Cold War order.

2. Invasion of Ukraine: Justifications

Five articles provide various justifications for Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Several identify defending the people of the Donbas region as the primary factor for the invasion, echoing President Putin’s justification of protecting people “who have been subjected to abuse [and] genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years.” Others argue that the main reason for the invasion is to protect Russia from the military threat posed by Ukraine’s increasing ties to NATO. Articles also claim that there are Western information operations concerning the motives of Moscow’s military actions.

3. Invasion of Ukraine: Russian Domestic Perceptions

The views of the Russian population on the conflict are still undergoing initial polling, and divergences are expected across polling companies. One company, Russian Field, conducted a poll that Novye Izvestiya reported as being particularly supportive of the conflict. The poll was on the larger side, with 2,000 respondents across Russia.

4. Invasion of Ukraine: Discussions of Western Strategy

A large number of articles discuss Russian perceptions of Western strategy towards Russia and towards the conflict in Ukraine. Articles published before the invasion focus on the role of the United States in fomenting the conflict, and highlight US weaknesses that made Vladimir Putin decide that now was a good time to push to renegotiate the post-Cold War global order. Articles published in the early days of the invasion argue that the West is in the process of realizing that it underestimated Russian power and resolve and is looking to salvage its position.

5. Invasion of Ukraine: Nuclear Issues

Several articles discuss nuclear issues. An article in Topwar.ru argues that the US is potentially considering the infliction of a first disarming strike against Russia. An article in Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie (NVO) discusses the possibility of Belarusian and Ukrainian nuclear weapons. In Gazeta.ru, Irina Al’shaeva writes about the “special combat duty regime” requested by Russia’s president Vladimir Putin for the Russian strategic forces. A Novye Izvestiya article points out that open source researchers have been tracking the movements of the US Boeing E-4B AWACS aircraft on the flight from Lincoln, Nebraska, after the Russian initiation of the Russian war in Ukraine.

6. Invasion of Ukraine: The Threat from NATO

Russian media also focused on the direct threat that NATO poses to Russia and to regional stability in Europe. The articles focused on the destabilizing effect of NATO force deployments near Russia’s border, NATO’s history of using military campaigns to achieve its geopolitical goals, and the risk of a broader conflict between Russia and NATO.

7. Invasion of Ukraine: NATO Enlargement

The potential further enlargement of NATO is both a cause and consequence of the conflict with Ukraine in the eyes of several Russian writers. Framed as a genuine threat to Russia, articles discuss the possibility of Scandinavian states joining the alliance as well as states in the Balkans such as Kosovo. Other writers reiterate the Russian line that NATO was never supposed to expand in the first place.

8. Invasion of Ukraine: Responses to NATO Military Aid

Russian media reflect a variation in attitudes on NATO military aid in Ukraine. Numerous commentators doubt the utility of Western assistance and dismiss it as disinformation; they say that the West is only providing older arms and materials, and criticize the selfish nature of overall Western involvement in the conflict. Other journalists express legitimate concern about the impact that such significant aid could cause in Ukraine. There is an unprecedented coordination of support, and it seems there is some surprise among journalists about the swift nature of such collaboration.

9. Invasion of Ukraine: Ukrainian EU and NATO Membership

Ukrainian membership in EU and NATO is still a point of interest in the media, especially amidst an active invasion in Ukraine. Several articles posit that an acceptance of Ukraine, if it occurs at all, is in the very distant future, especially considering the presence of Russian troops. Others highlight Ukraine’s application as a forced response to Russian assistance in Donetsk and Luhansk and caution that Georgia and Moldova may be likely for EU candidate status as well. Overall, there is a shared opinion that Ukrainian membership in EU and NATO is not out of the question but has been made significantly more complex with current Russian activity in Ukraine.

10. Invasion of Ukraine: Responses to Western Sanctions

Numerous articles in the Russian press discuss the recent sanctions imposed on Russia and largely dismiss the significance of their long-term impact on Russian society, stating that they are more damaging to the West. Media commentators even welcome the challenge, stating that such independence will fix issues of Russia’s import dependence and brain drain. Additionally, the Russian media analyze the challenges that the imposed sanctions will cause for specific Russian industry, such as shipbuilding and aviation capabilities and technology and computer chip development.

11. Invasion of Ukraine: Russia’s Future in the New Order

Several articles focus on how Russia and its role in the world will change in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine. These articles suggest that sanctions will cause some pain but the sacrifice will be worthwhile to achieve the goal of ending the threat posed by an anti-Russian Ukraine and restoring Russia’s greatness and sovereignty. The possibility of increasing internal repression to ensure national unity is also discussed in a positive light.

12. Invasion of Ukraine: Role of Neighboring States

States in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine are seen as potentially vital interlocutors in both the positive and negative sense for several Russian commentators. Poland and the wider east-central European NATO member-states are viewed as having taken a turn towards a decisive rearmament and preparation for future conflict. Meanwhile, Belarus holds its position as a key Russian ally, underlining its important role for Moscow as a constituent part of the Russian-Belarusian “Union State” and very likely a further consolidation of de facto Russian control over more elements of Belarus’ statehood and independence.

13. Invasion of Ukraine: Turkey’s Position

Russian commentators remain concerned about Turkey’s role in the Russo-Ukrainian War and the geopolitical fallout from the conflict. Perspectives vary, from those who note Turkey’s unwillingness to go along with the full spectrum of sanctions proposed by European and North American states, to others who reiterate the concern about the longer-term designs of Turkey’s leadership in the broader Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and even Central Asian states. Observers are particularly wary of Turkey’s naval presence, which for some is described as a genuine threat to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, alongside Turkey’s ability to block passage through the straits. The growing role of Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 combat drones also add impetus to commentator concerns.

14. Invasion of Ukraine: The Biolabs Conspiracy

Several articles once again raise the conspiracy theory about the role of US DTRA reference labs in the former Soviet Union states, but this time in Ukraine, referencing recent coverage in the UK newspaper Expose. In an article in Sovetskaya Rossia, Valentin Kasatonov argues that “US military biolabs in Ukraine” are the reasons for Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. In Topwar.ru, Yevgeniy Fedorov provides more conspiracy theories that the labs are a part of growing NATO infrastructure in Ukraine.

15. China’s Geopolitical Position

Russian commentators have noted the parallels between Russia’s ongoing intervention into Ukraine—and the West’s reaction—and China’s presumed geopolitical designs for Taiwan. Some argue that while such parallels exist, they do not necessarily mean that China intends to support Russia’s goals in Ukraine. Indeed, they argue that it is possible that this could be a major test of the strength of the Russian-Chinese relationship at the highest levels. Others are more sanguine about the relationship and argue that this provides a potential test-case for a future Chinese effort to retake Taiwan.

16. Russia-Nicaragua Relations

Although most commentary in Russia remains focused on events in Eurasia and Eastern Europe, some look to other parts of the world as a means of shoring up the global picture of Russia’s alliances and international relationships. An article in NVO looks to the political regime in Nicaragua. It argues that there is a friendly face in this Central American country, and that Russia can use it as “something [with which] to respond to US pressure in Europe” by further improving relations with this “soft underbelly of the United States.”

17. Information and Hybrid Warfare

Several articles discuss how Russians understand the US/NATO approaches to information warfare and hybrid warfare. An article by Aleksandr Bartosh focuses on what he explains is a hybrid warfare in US and NATO strategies. An article in Krasnaya Zvezda focuses on the Western concept of “cognitive warfare.” In an article in Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kur’er (VPK), Sergey Korotkov argues that the “heat of information (hybrid) war [against Russia] has reached a critical point.” In another VPK article, Leontiy Shevtsov analyzes what he calls “US and NATO information warfare operations.”

18. Shortcomings of the US Military

One article responds to US Navy chief of staff Michael Gilday’s recent comments that the Navy needs a fleet of more than 500 ships to meet its commitments in the forthcoming National Defense Strategy, noting that US shipbuilding capacity will be a major obstacle to reaching that goal. A second article examines the evolution of US aircraft carriers, and argues that the capabilities of current air wing configurations to counter an enemy are “significantly lower than they were” in the 1970s and 1980s. A third article examines US missile and air defense capabilities, arguing that capabilities were inefficiently developed due to US overconfidence in its pilots and aircraft.

19. US and European Military Capabilities

Three articles discuss developments of specific US and European capabilities and systems. One article discusses the US Navy’s public launch of its Snakehead underwater drone, “which apparently is being created in analogue to the Russian Poseidon submarine platform.” A second article discusses the US Space Force’s Deep space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC) project, which “will allow the delivery of accurate strikes against enemy satellites, and will also complete the formation of a unified system for coordinating the actions of the US armed forces around the planet.” A third article discusses the “Eurodrone” project between Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

Americas

Austal won a $12.3 million contract modification to exercise an option for littoral combat ship (LCS) industrial post-delivery availability support for USS Santa Barbara (LCS 32). The USS Santa Barbara is the US Navy’s 16th Independence littoral combat ship (LCS) variant. The LCS programme will see the construction of the vessels in the Freedom-class and the Independence-class variants. Work will take place in Alabama and Massachusetts. Expected completion will be by December 2022.

A joint exercise between the air forces of Pakistan and the United States was concluded recently. F-16s from Shaw Air Force Base participate in the exercise which started on February 26. The exercise aimed to promote interoperability when faced with complicated realistic scenarios.

Middle East & Africa

Israel’s President Isaac Herzog travelled to Turkey on Wednesday, where he spent a 24-hour visit. “The relationship with Turkey has had its ups and downs in recent years — we will not agree on everything, but we will try to restart relations,” Herzog said in a statement ahead of his departure. The last visit by an Israeli president to Turkey took place in 2007.

Europe

The United Kingdom is sending more weapons to Ukraine to help in the defensive effort against Russia’s invasion, the Defense Secretary has said. Ben Wallace told MPs that the UK has delivered 3,615 anti-tank weapons and will shortly be supplying a “small consignment” of Javelin anti-tank missiles.

Asia-Pacific

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy has reportedly commissioned two new Type 052D Destroyers. The destroyers are to be named the Zhanjiang and the Jiaozuo, Chinese military reported. After the decommissioning of the old Zhanjiang, a Type 051 destroyer with the hull number of 165, in August 2020, the new Zhanjiang, a new-generation destroyer with the same hull number as the old ship, entered service more than a year later.

The Philippines has received the first batch of two Turkey-made T129 Tactical Reconnaissance and Attack Helicopters (ATAK). The country had ordered six helicopters designed and developed by Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI). The Philippines is the first country abroad to use the ATAK. It is buying the six choppers worth approximately $280 million.

Today’s Video

WATCH: PAF-USAF BILATERAL AIR EXERCISE FALCON TALON CULMINATES AT AN OPERATIONAL AIR BASE

Americas

Northrop Grumman won a $97.3 million contract modification, which exercises options to provide continued test, maintenance, logistics and sustainment engineering support for MQ-4C Triton air vehicles, mission control and operator training systems. This modification also provides continued field service representative’s technical support to ensure that the MQ-4C Triton unmanned aerial system (UAS) aircraft are mission-capable for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions supporting aircraft early operational capability and initial operating capability. Additionally, this modification provides continued reach-back engineering support for both the Navy and the government of Australia MQ-4C Triton UAS assets. Work will take place in Maryland, California, Florida and various other locations outside the continental US. Estimated completion date is in March 2023.

Bering Global Solutions won a $88.6 million deal for base operating support (BOS) services at Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center and Naval Hospital Twentynine Palms. The work to be performed provides for labor, supervision, management, and materials (except those specified as government-furnished), to perform the following BOS service functions: facility investment, custodial, pest control, integrated solid waste management, grounds maintenance, pavement clearance, water (operation and maintenance), and environmental services. Work will take place in California. Estimated completion will be by September 2030.

Middle East & Africa

Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) unveiled two missile and drone tunnel bases built at the heart of high mountains. IRGC Chief Commander Major General Hossein Salami said during the unveiling ceremony on March 5 that the bases will house ground-to-ground missile systems with advanced equipment, as well as attack drones that can penetrate the enemy’s radar and defense networks, government-owned PressTV reported.

Europe

A Polish plan to transfer its entire fleet of MiG-29 ‘Fulcrum’ combat aircraft to help the war effort in Ukraine was thrown into doubt with the US government saying it does not believe the proposal is tenable. The transfer of NATO-operated MiG-29 ‘Fulcrum’ fighters and Sukhoi Su-25 ‘Frogfoot’ ground-attack aircraft to Kyiv appeared to be back on when the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it was willing to transfer its entire fleet of 27 MiG-29s to the US Air Force’s Ramstein Air Base in Germany for onward delivery to the Ukrainian Air Force.

The US sent two PATRIOT surface-to-air missile batteries to Poland in preparation to enforce a no-fly zone over that country and parts of its border with Ukraine. “At the direction of the Secretary of Defense and at the invitation of our Polish allies, General Wolters, Commander of US European Command, has directed US Army Europe and Africa to reposition two Patriot Batteries to Poland,” United States European Command (EUCOM) spokesman Capt. Adam Miller said in a statement.

Asia-Pacific

India’s state run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) have started manufacturing activities of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft. “HAL in association with ADA has started manufacturing activities of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA),” HAL announced.

Today’s Video

WATCH: Poland To Send MIG-29 Jets To Ramstein Air Base

I’m going to be participating in the following panel tomorrow. Great lineup, encourage those interested to sign up.

Yesterday, together with Pavel Baev I participated in a Marshall Center panel on the regional fallout of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. My colleague Graeme Herd put together the following summary of the discussion…

This is a summary of the discussion at the latest workshop of the current series of online Russia Seminar Series (RSS) webinars held on March 8, 2022 by the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. The summary reflects the overall tenor of the discussion, and no specific element necessarily should be presumed to be the view of either of the participants.

Context

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a devastating impact on humanitarian conditions within Ukraine itself. Critical national infrastructure in Ukraine is under attack. Ukraine’s transport system, hospitals and communication networks are being degraded. The UNHCR reports that over 2 million Ukrainians, mainly women and children, have become refugees in neighboring countries, particularly Poland. At the same time, Russian military advances in Ukraine appear to have stalled in most operational theatres. Explanations for this unexpected outcome include logistical difficulties, poor planning, long and vulnerable supply lines, and an inability to execute combined arms warfare effectively. In places where Russia has taken territory, a hostile civil population protests in the rear, even in Russian-speaking regions such as Kherson. Can captured territory be held?

However, the picture is fluid and Russia is not yet fully committed. While Russia will seek to bombard the pivots and hubs used to supply military materiel through Poland and Romania, its usable precision guided weapon stockpile for this “special military operation” is fast depleting, though reserves are available for operations against NATO. Ukraine is able to create reserve battalions around Lviv and receive air defense and anti-tank capabilities. Poland has offered to hand over its entire inventory of 23 MiG-29 fighter aircraft to the US at Ramstein Air Base in Germany for potential transfer to Ukraine pending a NATO decision. These combat aircraft can be flown by Ukrainian pilots. Romania, Slovakia and Hungary also have MiG-29s in their inventories and some or all of these could also be provided to Ukraine. Russia does not have the troop to task ratio to occupy an unwilling Ukraine. And Ukrainian resistance is growing, with the calculation in Kyiv that any deal made today will not be as good as the one made a week from now.

This deadlock is dangerous as Putin needs a “special military operation” victory to support his “everything going according to plan” narrative. Thus, if “victory is not possible and defeat is not an option” – if the choice is between bloody debilitating occupation or withdrawal – then Putin may seek to escalate by opening new fronts to present the Russian public with distracting mini-breakthroughs and victories in the wider region. Short-term risks in the Black Sea region appears highest. Longer-term risks include disruptions to energy and food exports from Russia and Ukraine, and conflicts around Exclusive Economic Zones in the Black Sea, for example, as borders are redrawn but not recognized. This summary identifies short and longer term spillover risks in both regions.

Black Sea Region

Had the “special military operation” actually gone to plan, Kyiv would have fallen within 2-4 days, and in a “best case” scenario from a Russian perspective, resistance would implode and Ukraine suffer sullen occupation. At this point the risks of spillover to Moldova and Georgia would have been much higher. The ideological narrative constructed by Putin around “Slavic unity” and regathering “ancient Russian lands” may have included Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If not, then this would have suggested EU membership was off the cards for both states and imposed neutrality (“demilitarization”) would have been attempted by Russia.

However, without first capturing Odesa (still possible through a combined air assault and amphibious landing operation) and finding troops to occupy Ukraine in the context of a hostile and debilitating insurgency, military operations into Moldova do not appear viable. Transnistrian forces themselves have no offensive capability and rail links to Odesa region from Tiraspol are cut. Thus, while in Moldova pro-Russian parties and opposition groups in the breakaway Dniester region and the pro-Russian Gagauzia oppose EU accession, Russia aggression in Ukraine propels the majority of the society to support this westward economic and normative reorientation, as is the case in Georgia.

However, the seizure of Georgian territory is possible. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been remarkably passive and inactive and still has the reserves and capacity to act. The seizure of Poti region in Georgia is a possibility, supported by Chechen forces formally subordinated to Russia’s Rosgvardia (National Guard) but actually under the control of Ramzan Kadyrov. If Putin’s power weakens, Kadyrov may also plan to act more autonomously into the Pankisi Gorge, even if in the name of Putinism and justified with reference to Russian national goals. In such circumstances, Azerbaijan might look to complete “unfinished business” towards Nagorno-Karabakh.

In Georgia itself, the Russian invasion of Ukraine further polarizes society. There is pressure on Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Gharibashvili and ‘Georgia Dream’ party who have adopted a “neutral” policy towards Russia. Neutrality translates into a policy of not supporting international sanctions and keeping Georgia’s air space open to Russian aircraft. Since 24 February opposition rallies in Tbilisi have protested daily against the Russian invasion outside the Georgian Parliament, demanding: 1. A visa regime with Russia; 2. Banning Russian media/propaganda outlets in Georgia; and 3. Closing Georgia’s airspace to Russia.

The role of Turkey is pivotal. Turkey attempts to avoid alienating Russia by keeping its air space open to Russian commercial flights and not applying sanctions. As a result, Turkey, like Georgia, is not included on the Russian list of hostile states. However, Turkey does send effective military aid (drones) to Ukraine. Turkey, citing Article 19 of the Montreux Convention, has closed the entrance to the Black Sea to the navies of the parties to the conflict. With its “sea bridge” unable to function, Russia is forced to resupply Syria using a more expensive and more limited air bridge. This in turn weakens Russia’s presence in Syria relative to Turkey’s. At the same time, the US and NATO face a difficult choice regarding the sending of combat ships into the Black Sea in support of Bulgaria and Romania. Turkey attempts to dissuade allies from requesting access, but the need to protect two exposed allies is growing.

Baltic Sea Region

The risk of spillovers into the Baltic-Nordic region are less than the Black Sea region, at least in the short-term and while the “active phase” of Russian aggression in Ukraine is ongoing. Risks associated with Kaliningrad proves to be the exception to this general rule. If the closure of air space is joined by cutting rail links to Kaliningrad, then this could generate a Russian kinetic response. In addition, reports of resignations and refusal of Belarusian officers and soldiers to follow orders and deploy to Ukraine suggest that Lukashenka’s regime may be less stable than supposed. Does Russia have the spare capacity to bolster Belarus, when Rosgvardia is needed at home as a praetorian safeguard to quell protest potential in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other cities in Russia?

The Estonian Center Party has severed ties to the United Russia Party. On 5 March, 103 members of its extended board, with no abstentions, voted to rescind the cooperation protocol signed in 2004. In Latvia, though, the polarization of society is a danger, with pro-Russian supporters using provocative rhetoric to radicalise their potential voters ahead of parliamentary elections. Two potential conflict dates loom – the commemoration of Latvian Legionnaires on 16 March and the Soviet Victory Day on 9 May. Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis has stated that Vilnius has no red lines regarding possible sanctions against Russia – including oil and gas.

Non-aligned Finland and Sweden seek even closer defense cooperation with each other and with NATO. Indeed, the potential for NATO membership has increased and this will lead to heightened tension in medium to long-term. Defense spending is set to increase in all Baltic States. Lithuania adds an extra $0.5bn and its parliament agrees to increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP. Spending will likely be on deterrent gaps in capabilities necessary to counter Russia’s way of war, such as air defense and drones.

Points of escalation might be driven by the possible use of thermobaric bombs in Kyiv, and/or the slaughter of Ukrainian refugee convoys struggling to reach the Polish border from Lviv. Such horrific violence would stress-test to destruction the ability of NATO member states to achieve all three of its objectives: 1) apply sanctions to Russia and provide humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine; 2) uphold
national interests, democratic values and principles; and 3) avoid miscalculation, spillover and escalation. As RHSS#3 summary noted: “In the context of mass civilian casualties, how does the West calibrate and balance moral principles that reflect its values with pragmatic approaches in line with interests? At what point does “responsibility to protect” trump other considerations?” Almost certainly risk calculus in NATO would change, with a much greater emphasis on alleviating immediate suffering and the “responsibility to protect”.

Conclusions

• The invasion has also shaken the Putin regime in Russia. The Putinist system, born in the violence of the Second Chechen campaign, has grown organically over the last 23 years. It weathered the ‘Moscow Maidan’ protests of 2011-12 and was boosted by the Crimea annexation of 2014. Putin and the players in the system understood the rules of the game, how these rules could be enforced and the necessity of a balance between the normative state, parastatal entities and oligarchs. In 2022, the pressure of sanctions disrupts and destabilizes oligarchs, the business models of parastatal entities and the normative state moves to a war footing, its lead representatives complicit in the war and war crimes.

• In this context, escalation does not have just to be horizontal – a spillover into the wider region – but it can be vertical. The possibility of an accidental radioactive discharge due to Russian attack on nuclear power plant is high. If nuclear signaling is needed, Russia could withdrawal from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and then promptly stage a nuclear test to intimidate and deter. A low likelihood event involves a Russian “false flag” operation around CBRNE might be considered. A “dirty bomb” fits Russian media narratives that a US-controlled “neo-Nazi” regime would practice genocidal “nuclear terrorism”. The function of this narrative could be to provide a retroactive justification for invasion – prevention of nuclear terrorism – and to place the blame for any nuclear radiation leakage on Kyiv. Such leakages would massively impact on refugee flows westwards. For Putin such flows would be understood in terms of an asymmetric responses by Russia to western pressure.

• Might Putin be tempted to declare martial law or a state of emergency in Russia? Putin may calculate that full mobilization is a necessary means to offset 1) battlefield losses through conscription; 2) economic isolation and rent redistributions to shore up elite support; and 3) evidence the idea that this is an existential fight for Russia, that Ukraine is merely the territory upon which Russia battles the real enemy – NATO. Such reasoning concludes that once battle is joined all measures are justified by Russia if this leads to the defeat of NATO.

• If such reasoning prevails, martial law and mobilization in Russia could prove to be the second and last strategic blunder by Putin. Russian military reforms introduced by Defense Minister Serdyukov 2009-2012 means mass mobilization is not possible – the Russian military does not have the capacity or infrastructure to train such large numbers. Moreover, such a move might precipitate a societal revolt, one in which the Russian security services would struggle to maintain order. Alternatively, it could encourage a military coup, with a charismatic and politically acceptable Defense Minister Shoigu at its head. Given “everything is forever until it is no more”, the entourage and inner-circle around Putin may well calculate that the president himself is the problem and his removal the solution.

• Fear of failure in Ukraine and fear of revolt and removal in Russia likely increases Putin’s isolation and paranoia. He may then adopt a differentiated understanding of risk. At home he is risk averse. Martial law or declaring a state of emergency is avoided. Putin likely compensates by accepting greater risk abroad. This suggests a Black Sea Fleet “special military operation” against Poti could come into focus, or Russia looks to conducts a dirty bomb “false flag” operation in Ukraine. In Putin’s mind, both options would create disruptive situations to generate options and new opportunities for leverage and exploitation.

Americas

Raytheon won a $13.6 million deal, which provides test, evaluation and systems engineering support, to include mission planning, test plans and procedures, mission conduct and data collection, real-time range safety mission support, mission data analyses and reporting, operations research support, and technical management support for the Missile Defense Agency/AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense Program. Work will take place in California, Hawaii, New Mexico. Expected completion date is in March 2026.

A Mirage F1 from Airborne Tactical Advantage Company crashed near Luke Air Force Base on February 10 after having low fuel pressure, according to a preliminary report from the National Transportation Safety Board. The engine flamed out and the pilot could not restart the engine. Unable to reach Luke Air Force Base, the pilot steered the aircraft to a desert area before ejecting.

Middle East & Africa

The Turkish F-16 jet’s AESA radar prototype, developed by electronics enterprise, ASELSAN is scheduled to be delivered by the end of this year. The AESA Radar will be integrated into the F-16 Block 30 platform in service with the Turkish Air Force for further tests and qualification.

Saudi Arabia’s General Authority for Military Industries gave the OK for two projects that aim to locally manufacture components for the US-origin Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system. The information was confirmed by Deputy Governor for the Industry Sector, Eng. Qassim bin Abdulghani Al-Maimani. Riyadh will now manufacture THAAD interceptor launchers and missile containers, reported SDArabia.

Europe

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Tuesday said there are “credible reports” of Russian forces committing war crimes in ongoings attack on Ukraine by firing on fleeing civilians. “There are credible reports of civilians coming under fire as they tried to evacuate,” said Stoltenberg, speaking to reporters after a meeting with Latvian President Egils Levits, at the Riga Castle in Latvia. “Targeting civilians is a war crime. And it’s totally unacceptable. We need real humanitarian corridors that are fully respected.”

Asia-Pacific

India was supposed to hold a firepower demonstration today in Rajasthan but Exercise Vayu Shakti 2022 has been postponed. Anonymous sources told the Hindu that the event was postponed “due to the developing situation” and a new date will be decided later. 148 aircraft including 109 fighters were supposed to be participating. The exercise was last held in 2019.

Today’s Video

WATCH: British Army Unveils The NEW CHALLENGER 3 Main Battle Tank!

Americas

Lockheed Martin won a $869.9 million contract modification, which adds scope for integrating mission and weapon systems capability development, including flight-test hardware, through system functional review to development test complete on the F-35A, F-35B, F-35C aircraft. Work will take place in Texas, New Hampshire, Florida, Maryland, California, Missouri and Arizona. Estimated completion will be in December 2026.

The US Air Force and Boeing have concluded that delivery of the new Air Force One is now 17 months behind schedule. This means the transport will not be delivered by 2024. The delay was first reported by Breaking Defense, which says the information came from two of its sources. A Boeing spokesperson said the company is working “closely with the Air Force on a new approved schedule baseline.”

Middle East & Africa

The Finnish Ministry of Defense has named solutions by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defence Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to advance to the second and final round of negotiations for Finland’s new, enhanced, high-altitude, short-to-medium range ground-based air-defense system (GBADS) requirement.

Europe

The Pentagon is likely to supply F-16 combat jets to Poland if it hands over MiG-29s to Ukraine. NATO rejected Ukraine’s pleas to impose a no-fly zone to halt Russia’s bombing. Its chief Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance would not intervene in the conflict over fears of a direct class with Russia that could spiral into a wider conflict.

Russia has fired 600 missiles since its invasion of Ukraine began, a senior US defense official said Sunday, and it has committed approximately 95% of its amassed combat power inside Ukraine, reports CNN. The US observed ongoing fighting in Kherson and Mykolaiv on Sunday and Russian forces are still trying to encircle Kyiv, Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Mariupol, according to the official.

Asia-Pacific

Kazakhstan Paramount Engineering (KPE), which is a joint venture between the global aerospace and technology business, Paramount Group and one of Kazakhstan’s leading defense and engineering companies, Kazpetromash, has announced its latest delivery of Arlan 4×4 armoured personnel carriers (APCs) to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan, in accordance with that nation’s State Defense Order. Kazakhstan Paramount Engineering has for over the past four years delivered several batches of the Arlan APC to the Armed Forces of Kazakhstan, where they have since been in operation.

Today’s Video

WATCH: US and Poland “working actively” on a deal to supply Ukraine with fighter jets | DW News

Americas

Lockheed Martin won a not-to-exceed contract modification, which adds scope for the procurement, delivery, installation, and configuration of 22 F-35 Joint Strike Fighter training devices. The total quantity of training devices includes full mission simulators, multispectral database, and interactive courseware. Additionally, this modification provides non-recurring engineering to identify and integrate a replacement rechargeable battery module to be installed within the blade server system of pilot training devices in support of the Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, non-US Department of Defense (DOD) participants and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) customers. Work will take place in Texas and Florida. Estimated completion will be in December 2027.

Sikorsky Aircraft won a $15.9 million modification, which adds scope to provide interim contractor support and procure interior spares for VH-92A low rate initial production Lot II aircraft. The Marine One VH-92A is the next-generation presidential transport helicopter being developed for the US Marine Corps. Sikorsky Aircraft is responsible for the production. Work will take place in Washington, Illinois, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and New York. Estimated completion will be in March 2023.

Middle East & Africa

Israel Defense reports that the Mozambican army has intercepted and neutralized 3 ISIS drone squads in the north of the country with the tactical systems provided by the Israeli company MCTECH RF Technologies. According to a report by the army, the drones were apparently sent for the purposes of gathering intelligence and bombarding the soldiers. According MCTECH, the system model MC-Horizon D360BP V3 tactical systems were supplied to the Mozambican army at the end of 2021.

Europe

According to local media, the German government had to backtrack on the planned delivery of 2,700 East German-era Strela anti-aircraft missiles to the Ukrainian army. The magazine Der Spiegel reported that  a large proportion of the Strela missiles in the German army depots are not only completely outdated, they are also no longer usable. The German army had already taken the East German-era system out of the troops’ operations in 2014 “for security reasons”, according to a confidential note on the weapon system.

NATO is increasing its presence on the north-eastern flank of Allied territory in response to the Russian troop concentration and subsequent aggressive incursion by Russian forces into Ukraine. Now all four multinational NATO task forces have been reinforced with additional personnel and materiel. Britain, the lead nation of the NATO battalion in Estonia, has sent another 850 soldiers and more Challenger tanks there, plus 350 more troops to Poland. It has also put another 1,000 on standby to help with refugees, and sent another four fighter jets to Cyprus, while sending two ships to the eastern Mediterranean.

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia Air Force Chief of Staff Air Chief Marshal Fadjar Prasetyo disclosed that a number of pilots have been shortlisted for conversion to the Rafale fighter. “We have prepared several pilots, but we have not determined the number. However, we have readied the criteria and those who are eligible to fly the Rafale,” Prasetyo said on March 4.

Today’s Video

WATCH: How Powerful is Javelin Anti-Tank Missile

Americas

Northrop Grumman Systems won a $22.6 million order, which provides for maintenance support to the E-2D aircraft throughout its entire life-cycle using operationally supportable and interoperable solutions. The E-2D Advanced Hawkeye (AHE) is the newest variant of the E-2 aircraft platform. It features a state-of-the-art radar with a two-generation leap in capability and upgraded aircraft systems that will improve supportability and increase readiness. Work will take place in Florida and New York. Estimated completion will be in February 2025.

The MQ-9A Remotely Piloted Aircraft developed by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) has surpassed 2 million flight hours in support of global customers. The workhorse unmanned aircraft combines unmatched persistence and mission flexibility with a >90% Mission Capable Rate, which puts the MQ-9A in a class by itself, the company said in a statement.

Middle East & Africa

Turkish Navy’s multipurpose amphibious assault ship TCG Anadolu has started its sea trials. Sedef Shipyard Defense Industry Projects Manager Selim Buldano?lu revealed to Daily Sabah the construction of the ship has been completed and that the sea tests have begun.

Europe

The French defense ministry said Wednesday it has deployed Rafale combat jets to Poland. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, said on February 27 that the bloc would provide funds to Ukraine to acquire fighter jets from unidentified member states.

Ukraine’s state-owned Ukroboronprom said it has repaired and restored several military hardware and weapons for use by the Army as the war with Russia rages on for the seventh day. Over the past two days, the company said it repaired more than 10 armored vehicles, six air defense systems and several aircraft; besides undertaking on-site repair works. It has also ramped up production of machine guns, cruise missiles, Czech Hedgehog anti-tank fortification systems and explosives.

Asia-Pacific

India is now gearing to counter the impact of new economic sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe that could hamper armaments and military spares supplies from Moscow. Russia has been the largest arms supplier to India since the early 1970s. Today, 60% of India’s military hardware inventory is from Russia or the former Soviet Union and the bulk of India’s license-based defense manufacturing comes from Russia.

Today’s Video

WATCH: General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper

Americas

Boeing won a $17.7 million contract modification, which increases the scope to procure the necessary test and engineering support to complete the development of the Next Generation Jammer – Mid-Band system and the phased replacement of the AN/ALQ-99 Tactical Jamming System currently mounted to the EA-18G aircraft. The AN/ALQ-99 intercepts and automatically processes radar signals and power manages the system’s transmitters to effectively jam large numbers of diverse radar threats with very high effective radiated power. The AN/ALQ-249(V)1 Next Generation Jammer Mid-Band (NGJ-MB) system is part of a larger NGJ system that will augment, and ultimately replace the legacy ALQ-99 Tactical Jamming System (TJS) currently used on the EA-18G Growler aircraft for Airborne Electronic Attack. Work will take place in Missouri and Maryland. Estimated completion will be in February 2023.

BAE Systems and the Office of the Deputy Secretary of Defense’s Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) completed flight test of advanced Manned Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) technology at a Department of Defense flight test range. The technology enables the rapid infusion of new payloads and platforms into the fleet to quickly enhance mission effectiveness and counter adversary technology..

Middle East & Africa

Leonardo, an Italian aerospace firm, is preparing to deliver another two Eurofighters to Kuwait in the middle of this month, Reuters reports. So far, 2 out of the 28 aircraft ordered have been delivered.

Europe

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine announced that new Bayraktar TB2 combat drones have arrived from Turkey and are being deployed in the field. The delivery comes amidst the Russian invasion into Ukrainian borders. These new drones add onto the 12 Bayraktar TB2s in Ukraine’s inventory being used in the air and naval forces. Ukraine shared grainy aerial images of Russian tanks and missile batteries destroyed by their Bayraktar drones. A black-and-white footage that went viral on Twitter Sunday showed a massive explosion ripping through what appears to be a Russian convoy.

According to the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, his country will receive more Stinger and Javelin anti-aircraft missiles from abroad. Turkey will also deliver more drones. Amidst the Russian War in the Ukraine, several western countries like Germany, Finland, Sweden or Denmark have pledged arms to Ukraine to ward off the Russian invasion.

Asia-Pacific

Thailand’s procurement of S26T diesel-electric submarines from China has hit rough seas with Germany’s MTU refusing to supply engines that power the vessels. The Asian country decided in 2015 to buy three S26T submarines, an export version of the Type 039A (Yuan class). A $390 million contract for the first boat was signed with China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Co (CSOC) in 2017, with delivery expected in 2024.

Today’s Video

WATCH: Why Guided Anti-Tank Missiles—Like Javelins—Are Vital in Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia

Americas

Lockheed Martin won a $128.2 million contract modification by the US Air Force for the exercise of an option for hardware spares and the partial exercise of an option for an additional 123 Lot 20 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) – Extended Range missiles with containers. According to the company, JASSM is a long-range, conventional, air-to-ground, precision standoff missile for the US and allied forces. Designed to destroy high-value, well-defended, fixed and relocatable targets, JASSM’s significant standoff range keeps aircrews well out of danger from hostile air defense systems. Work will take place in Florida and Alabama. Expected completion date is January 30, 2026.

The Space Development Agency (SDA) announced the awards of three prototype agreements worth approximately $1.8 billion to establish the foundation for Tranche 1 Transport Layer (T1TL), a mesh network of 126 optically-interconnected space vehicles (SV). The SVs will provide a resilient, low-latency, high-volume data transport communication system, and be ready for launch starting in September 2024.

Middle East & Africa

Kellogg Brown & Root Services won a $7.7 million contract modification for base operating support at several locations in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The work to be performed provides for but is not limited to, all management, supervision, tools, materials, supplies, labor and transportation services necessary to perform galley services, laundry services, facility management, emergency service requests, urgent service, routing service, preventive maintenance, inspection, testing and certification, facilities investment, custodial, pest control service, integrated solid waste, grounds maintenance, wastewater, and base support vehicles, at Jebel Ali, Fujairah, Sas Al Nahkl and Al Minhad, United Arab Emirates. Work will take place in the UAE. Expected completion date is February 28, 2023.

Europe

The Italian Ministry of Defense’s Aeronautical Armaments and Airworthiness Directorate (DAAA) recently approved a contract for the technical-logistical support of the Air Force’s C-130J Super Hercules airlifter fleet. The agreement, which lasts five years and is worth a total of €380 million, was signed on January 28, 2022, between the Italian Air Force and the Temporary Business Grouping (RTI) formed by Leonardo, Avio Aero and Lockheed Martin Aeronautics.

Finland will send weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Monday. This marks a shift in policy. The shipment will include 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 bullets, 1,500 anti-tank weapons and 70,000 food packages, Defense Minister Antti Kaikkonen said.

A cruise missile strike at the largest square of Europe, Freedom Square in Kharkiv leading to dozens of victims should be counted as a war crime said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “The cruise missile that struck Kharkiv, fired from the Russian city of Belgorod is terror against the city. There was no military target on the square. Just as in those residential areas of Kharkiv hit by rocket artillery. The rocket aimed at the central square is an outright, undisguised terror,” the president said in a statement posted on the Ukrainian MoD’s website.

Asia-Pacific

An anonymous defense official from India told The Hindu that Paris and New Delhi are close to concluding an agreement to develop the engine for the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and French engine maker Safran will work together to develop the 125KN engine. Meanwhile, Girish S. Deodhare, Director General of the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), says design configuration of the AMCA has been frozen.

Today’s Video

WATCH: Italy Signs €380M Technical Logistical Support Contact for C-130J Fleet!

Americas

The US Air Force has selected Leidos Inc. to develop a $26 million prototype advanced high power microwave (HPM) weapon system to counter drones. “The new prototype will be called Mjölnir, the mythical Norse God Thor’s mighty hammer,” said Adrian Lucero, THOR program manager at AFRL’s Directed Energy Directorate at Kirtland AFB, New Mexico. “Because THOR was so successful, we wanted to keep the new system’s name in the family.” Mjölnir is based on technology from the Tactical High-Power Operational Responder (THOR) program but with significant improvement in capabilities, reliability, and manufacturing capabilities. Leidos will deliver the prototype next year.

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) used an Avenger Unmanned Aircraft System and five hardware-in-the-loop synthetic Avengers to autonomously search and follow an artificially-generated adversary. The live-virtual swarm utilized a simulated Infrared Search and Track (IRST) sensor network in addition to the government-furnished CODE autonomy engine to accomplish the mission.

Middle East & Africa

The US Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet last week announced the launch of a new joint fleet of unmanned drones with allied nations to patrol vast swaths of the region’s volatile waters as tensions simmer with Iran. Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, who leads the 5th Fleet, told The Associated Press that 100 unmanned drones, both sailing and submersible, would dramatically multiply the surveillance capacities of the U.S. Navy

Europe

Ukraine reported the destruction of the Antonov An-225 Mriya airlifter on February 27, with the Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba saying that the largest aircraft in the world was destroyed in a Russian strike on Hostomel Airport (also known as Antonov International Airport) on the northwestern outskirts of Kyiv.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union will ban Russian state-run media outlets from airing in the EU, as well as bar Russian aircraft from flying in EU airspace.

Asia-Pacific

Zenetex LLC won an $8 million contract modification, which exercises an option to provide contractor support services for the MH-60R Multi Mission Helicopter for the government of Australia. The MH-60R Seahawk is a multi-mission helicopter manufactured by Sikorsky Aircraft. It is considered to be the world’s most advanced maritime helicopter. The first low-rate initial production (LRIP) helicopters were remanufactured SH-60Bs, but the following MH-60Rs are all newbuilds. Work will take place in Patuxent River, Maryland, and is expected to be completed in March 2023.

The Royal Australian Air Force has awarded Lockheed Martin a contract worth $49 Million to provide Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile integration and test effort for the formers F/A-18 E/F aircraft. This order provides Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile integration and test effort for the Royal Australian Air Force F/A-18 E/F aircraft for the government of Australia. In February of 2020, the United States had approved Australia’s request to purchase 200 AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASMs) for its F-18 Super Hornet fighters in a contact estimated to be worth $990 million. Australia intends to use the missiles on its F-18 aircraft to provide enhanced capabilities in defense of critical sea-lanes.

Today’s Video

WATCH: EU ups the ante with Russia; closes airspace, bans media

I was on the Defense One Radio Podcast on Friday, together with some other guests, talking about the larger context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. You can listen or read the transcript here. Here’s a sample:

Watson: I’m wondering, what is your read on this next generation of power brokers in Russia, and their interest in Putin’s kind of, you know, revanchist tendencies here?

Gorenburg: It’s, you know, it’s really hard to tell what, how things, you know, what any of these next generation people really think. And, you know, one movie that I think is well worth watching, not just for the history, but also for just when you start thinking about how a bunch of psychopaths interact with the Supreme Leader’s, is the “Death of Stalin.” And you see that kind of cow-towing, right? But also, what the actual history of that time tells us is that the survivors, the people who stuck around in positions of power became very good at hiding their true beliefs while Stalin was around. And so, we don’t really know what a lot of these people think, because the ones that had clear positions that were contrary to what Putin wants have been sidelined.

…

Watson: What are the long-game considerations that maybe the U.S. officials in the policy community may not have been thinking about as much as perhaps they ought to? 

Gorenburg: Well, I think we’re heading into clearly a time of NATO-Russia confrontation. A lot will depend on how this goes. If this goes well and easily for Putin, then I think the appetite may increase. If it becomes complicated and painful, then there’ll be a time of reckoning, recalculation, or even just a time of trying to assimilate what’s been gained. But if it does go well, then I worry a bit about Moldova, honestly.

Americas

Oshkosh Defense won an $11.6 million contract modification for regional field service representatives to support fielding of the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle. The Oshkosh Defense Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) is designed for never-before-achieved speed, power and protected mobility outside the wire. Work will take place in Wisconsin. Estimated completion date is February 28, 2023.

The US Air Force has initiated the process of retiring its JSTARS fleet with the first production aircraft delivered #92-3289 being sent to retirement at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base. The jet left Robins Air Force Base on February 11.

Middle East & Africa

The Turkish Navy’s Preveze (Type 209/1400)-class diesel electric submarine (SSK) mid-life upgrade (MLU) programme has achieved a new milestone with the successful completion of the critical design phase. Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) approved the critical design phase following the successful completion of sea acceptance trials of the inertial navigation system, salinity-depth-density measurement and cold-water systems, and static inverters in mid-February, according to an announcement by Turkish company STM.

Europe

Germany and Netherlands announced over the weekend that they will be supplying anti-tank weapons and FIM-92 anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 FIM-92s will be transferred. Dutch government said in letters to parliament that 200 FIM-92s and 50 recoilless rifles with 400 warheads will be shipped to Ukraine.

The European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons, in a show of support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday. Von der Leyen said the EU’s decision to finance arms purchases was “a watershed moment.” The EU traces its roots to post-World War II peace efforts and began as an economic alliance.

Asia-Pacific

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) has revealed a new utility landing craft that can carry armored vehicles and troops, and complement air cushioned landing craft in large landing missions. The revelation comes amidst hightened rhetoric in Chinese media circles of an impending invasion of Taiwan following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Today’s Video

WATCH: Germany to send weapons to Ukraine in policy reversal • FRANCE 24 English

EDA Chief Executive Jiří Šedivý visited Hungary on 23-24 February for high level talks with Defence Policy Director Gergely Németh, Chief of Staff Major General Tibor Bozó, as well as the national capability director, Major Gen. László Sticz, the deputy national armaments director, ret. General László Tömböl, and the research and technology director, Brigadier General István Filótás. A scheduled meeting with Defence Minister Tibor Benkő had to be cancelled due to the events in Ukraine. The trip to Budapest was part of Mr Šedivý’s ‘tour des capitales’ around all EDA Member States.

The discussions with Defence Policy Director Németh mainly focused on Hungary’s involvement in EDA’s current and future activities, the need to drive defence innovation in Europe and the prospect of reinforcing EDA's role in supporting Member States in this area, the contributions the Armed Forces can make to the EU’s Green Deal policy, the state of play of the ongoing Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD) cycle 2021-2022 and the follow-up on the findings and recommendations of the first CARD report presented in November 2020, the state of play in the PESCO implementation, the functioning of the European Defence Fund (EDF) as well as the preparations for the EU’s Strategic Compass to be approved in March. Hungary provided a comprehensive presentation of the results and future ambitions of the Zrínyi force modernisation programme and its commitment to cooperation in EU capability development. The Chief Executive was impressed with Hungarian progress and outlined the ways in which Hungary can build on that progress and cooperate even more efficiently at a European level.

Hungary participates in 10 EDA projects & programmes including the Agency’s helicopter trainings & exercises, the EU Multimodal Transport Hubs programme, the Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear defence Surveillance as a Service (CBRN SaaS) project, the Multinational Modular Medical Unit (3MU) programme, the Joint Deployable Exploitation and Analysis Laboratory (JDEAL) or the Agency’s research project into Fuel Cells for Soldier Systems (FUSS) for which Hungary is even the lead nation. The total value of EDA programmes and projects in which Hungary participates currently stands at €37 million (Feb.2022).  

"I am particularly grateful for Hungary’s active role in the Agency’s helicopter training and exercise programme. We can count on the country’s important support in this domain since many years. In 2017, Hungary hosted one of our flagship helicopter exercises, called ‘Fire Blade’, and it will host it again later this year, in June, for a second time. Hungary’s leadership in support of our helicopter exercise programme is very much appreciated, and I can only thank the Minister for this. The country also acts as the lead country for an important collaborative defence research project managed by EDA that is looking into the development of new, enhanced soldier-sized fuel cell energy sources.  Another example of Hungary’s engagement is its participation in the CBRN Surveillance as a Service project which was the first PESCO project for which EDA’s direct support was requested and which is now run in the framework of the Agency. The project has even further developed into a Reconnaissance Surveillance System (CBRN RSS) project, supported by Hungary and four other countries, under the European Defence Industrial Development Programme (EDIDP)", Mr Šedivý commented. 

Hungary’s Defence Policy Director, Dr. Németh welcomed the delegation of EDA led by the Chief Executive, Jiří Šedivý, for a two-day visit in Budapest, and delivered the apologies of the Hungarian minister of defence, who could not meet the Chief Executive due to his duties related to the sudden worsening of the crisis in and around Ukraine. "Due to the difficulties caused by the pandemic, this was Mr. Šedivý’s first official visit to Hungary since he assumed his position in 2020. The Chief Executive’s trip to Hungary was very much appreciated in this very challenging and busy period. The timing was also relevant in light of the substantial progress we are witnessing in the Common Security and Defence Policy of the EU. The discussion on the Strategic Compass is ongoing, and Hungary is contributing to this document with an initiative in the field of capability development. We believe that the Compass should define a clear level of ambition for CSDP. With EU and NATO membership as the cornerstones of Hungarian defence policy, our country is a committed contributor to Euro-Atlantic security. Hungary highly appreciates the Agency’s work on the defence initiatives, namely the Capability Development Plan (CDP), the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the Coordinated Annual Review (CARD). These initiatives will certainly improve collaboration among Member States and help them identify capability development opportunities. Hungary’s comprehensive Zrínyi Defence and Force Development Programme aims at modernising and revitalising the Hungarian defence forces. This wide-ranging development programme gives us the opportunity to benefit from the EU defence initiatives, and it has positively affected the entire Hungarian defence sector, giving us more room for further cooperation. The modernisation programme underpins Hungary’s efforts to become a more active player on the international stage as well, including within the framework of the Agency. As a founding member of PESCO, Hungary is committed to its successful implementation. After the 4th wave of PESCO project generation, we are now involved in 28 PESCO projects, with a special focus on the EUROSIM PESCO project led by Hungary. EUROSIM will be among those 26 PESCO projects, out of 60 projects altogether, which are foreseen to reach their full operational capability by 2025 and produce tangible results. EDA’s support to EU Member States is indisputable. The Agency, with its broad network and expertise, is an essential platform for developing and improving military capabilities through collaboration. We ensure the Agency of our continued support and cooperation We are looking forward to the next CARD cycle as well as to the Agency’s future work on defence innovation", he said.

Here are the abstracts from the latest issue of our Russian Media Analysis newsletter. You can also download the full text PDF version.

This newsletter covers developments up to February 21, 2022. Russian media discussions of Russia’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics on February 21, 2022, as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, will be covered in the following issue.

1. HIGHLIGHTS OF PUTIN SPEECH

The key points of Vladimir Putin’s speech on February 21 include the following: Ukraine is preparing for a conflict with Western military support. Ukraine will seek to create nuclear weapons, or potentially get Western assistance to do so. Ukraine joining NATO is just a matter of time. Ukraine in NATO is a “direct threat to Russian security.” The US and NATO have sought not only to arm and train but also to integrate Ukraine’s military. These actions present a threat to Russia. NATO military bases are already present in Ukraine. Previous rounds of NATO expansion have not led to an improvement in relations with Russia, as the West has promised. Russia has unsuccessfully sought to cooperate with the West in various formats. Instead, the West has “cheated” and NATO infrastructure is now on Russia’s doorstep. US missile defense and strike capabilities are expanding and will pose a threat to Russia from Ukrainian territory. The West has “ignored” Russian proposals to resolve the current situation and this will have consequences.

2. PERCEPTION OF US GOALS IN THE CRISIS

Several articles discuss Russian perceptions of what the United States is looking to achieve in the current confrontation between the West and Russia. They focus on US domestic problems and fears of a loss of world domination as reasons that Washington is provoking a confrontation with Russia. They also suggest that the current confrontation is just the culmination of a long-term US plan to weaken Russia. They also argue that the US feels that Russia has little to offer in the way of potential concessions to end the crisis.

3. RUSSIAN GOALS IN THE CONFRONTATION

Several articles discuss Russian goals in the confrontation with the West and what Russia has achieved. Unlike Western analysts, who tend to focus on efforts to stop NATO enlargement or reorient Ukraine, Russian analysts address possibilities such as averting a new European missile crisis or forcing Ukraine to carry out the Minsk agreements. Russian achievements during the confrontation including bringing the US and its European allies to the negotiating table on major security issues, while negative consequences include reinforcing Western unity and creating a more negative perception of Russia in the West.

4. THE CONSEQUENCES OF WAR AND POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

Two authors discuss the potentially dangerous consequences for Russia of a war in Ukraine, while several offer possible solutions to the crisis. Writing from opposing perspectives, a conservative commentator and a liberal former FSB general agree that Russia is not prepared for war in Ukraine and for confrontation with the West. Possible solutions to the crisis focus primarily on the possibility of a neutral Ukraine, though some propose a broader array of confidence-building measures to reduce the extent of confrontation in Europe as a whole.

5. IMPLICATIONS OF US AND EUROPEAN SANCTIONS

Numerous articles in the Russian press discuss and even dismiss the potential implications of US efforts to impose sanctions on Russia. In Gazeta.ru, Anatoliy Akulov analyzes the challenges of US consensus-building among European actors to sanction Nordstream 2. In Topwar.ru, Aleksandr Staver critiques US targeted sanctions against Russia, arguing that they in essence view the children of Russian investors in the UK as hostages. In Izvestiya, Mariya Vasil’eva focuses on the sanctions’ potential impact on the Russian embassies abroad, arms exports, and electronics, among others. In Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kur’er (VPK), Vladimir Eranosyan writes about the challenges that the US faces in making good on its threat to disconnect Russia from SWIFT as well as about the INSTEX system created in the wake of Iran’s disconnect from SWIFT. Finally, in another article in VPK, Vitaliy Orlov writes about how Russia could transition away from the use of the US dollar for exports of Russian armaments abroad.

6. WESTERN FORCE DEPLOYMENTS GARNER RUSSIAN ATTENTION

As the crisis between Ukraine and Russia heats up, Russian authors have been quick to point out new military deployments by Western powers in the region. American deployments to Poland and Slovakia have been of interest, as well as UK support elsewhere in Eastern Europe. Overall, the articles view these deployments as ominous, but also par for the course given the bellicose trajectory of interstate relations in recent months.

7. UKRAINE ARMS FOR WAR

Many articles in the Russian press are reviewing current political and military tensions surrounding Ukraine. Taking a variety of tacks, articles largely focus on the state of the Ukrainian military and its support by Western powers. They encompass details about military equipment and technology transfers, discuss the broader abilities of the Ukrainian armed forces, and launch critical broadsides against Ukraine’s perceived bellicose position relative to Russia and the separatist republics.

8. BELARUS AIDS IN RUSSIA’S MILITARY BUILDUP

Cooperation between Russia and Belarus are a point of interest for several observers, especially as tensions continue to ratchet up with neighboring Ukraine. Belarus and Russia are jointly undertaking combined-arms military exercises in the form of “Union Resolve – 2022,” which some view as a further step away from any putative neutrality by Belarus. Others noted that Belarus has taken a hard line vis-à-vis Ukraine in terms of public declarations of support for Russia’s side, which is a shift from previous years. Finally, a military doctrine for the Russo-Belarusian Union State has been recently approved, which has further underlined the considerable alignment between the two countries.

9. TURKEY AS A MEDIATOR FOR THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT

An Izvestiya article interviews Russia’s ambassador to Turkey, who discusses Ankara’s offer to mediate the Russia-Ukraine crisis. While Turkey claims that it is “the only country” that can meet both Russia and Ukraine halfway to find resolution, the ambassador has doubts of Turkey’s impartiality, noting its “well-known military-technical ties with Ukraine.” Moreover, the ambassador suggests that Ankara may not adequately understand the extent of Russia’s grievances. He states, “If our Turkish partners can influence the Ukrainians and encourage them to fulfill the previously-made [Minsk] agreements and obligations, this can be welcomed.”

10. SIVKOV CAUTIONS US ABOUT NUCLEAR WAR

In VPK, Russian commentator Konstantin Sivkov extrapolates from what he alleges to have been a statement made by Gen. David Goldfein about “three steps to destroy Russia.” He concludes that a nuclear conflict between the US and Russia would be fatal for both Russia and the United States—and lead to the dominance of other states in the international system. This, he notes, should force “global and US elites to think—should they free up a “place in the sun” for others?”

11. PERSPECTIVES ON INFORMATION WARFARE

In a February 11 article in Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie (NVO), Yuriy Yur’ev writes about the concept of information warfare as a “component part of hybrid warfare” and traces the evolution of US information warfare concepts, arguing that Russia has lost the initiative to its opponents in this area. In Krasnaya Zvezda, Oleg Martynov discusses the creation in Poland of a cyber defense force. This article traces the evolution of US and NATO concepts in the cyber domain and posits that NATO has long “viewed the cyber sphere as a domain for military action.”

12. NEXUS OF CRIMINALS AND TERRORISTS IN HYBRID WARS AND COLOR REVOLUTIONS

In VPK, Konstantin Strigunov focuses on the nexus of criminal and terrorist groups as a potential globalization trend that weakens state governments. He argues that criminal, terrorist, and other groups are also utilized in “non-classical wars” such as hybrid wars and color revolutions.

13. US EXERCISES AND WEAPONS SYSTEMS

VPK and Kommersant discuss US and allied exercises and weapons systems. In Kommersant, Marianna Belen’kaya discusses Western reactions to the Russo-Belarusian Allied Resolve 2022 exercises and Russian commentators’ perspectives on military activities in the region. In VPK, authors discuss US presence in the Mediterranean for the Neptune Strike-2022 exercises, the testing of the joint air-to-ground missile, and US ballistic and cruise missile programs.

14. CHINESE-RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

Several articles reported on the meetings between presidents Putin and Xi on the sidelines of the Beijing Winter Olympics: the leaders declared that there were no limits to their strategic partnership; they vowed to counter instances of foreign interference in internal affairs; and Beijing announced that it joins Putin in opposing further NATO expansion. While some articles gloat at these new developments, others are more cautious—noting drawbacks and inequities in the alliance in the context of the Ukraine conflict. Another article argues that the US is trying to use Ukraine to drive a wedge between China and Russia.

15. KURIL ISLANDS DEVELOPMENTS; RUSSIAN-JAPANESE RELATIONS

Several articles report on an alleged US Virginia-class submarine incident that occurred near the Kuril Islands on February 12, which the Russian Ministry of Defense characterized as “a gross violation of international law.” According to reports, the submarine entered Russian territorial waters during a planned Russian military exercise, ignored warning messages instructing the vessel to surface, and was chased away by a Russian frigate. Other articles discuss the Japanese-Russian territorial dispute surrounding the South Kuril Islands, and how potential anti-Russian sanctions from Tokyo might affect the bilateral relationship.

16. IRAN NUCLEAR NEGOTIATIONS

Two articles discuss the US decision to reintroduce sanction waivers to Iran in hopes of reviving the nuclear negotiations. In an interview, the Russian Permanent Representative to International Organizations in Vienna notes that this step “should have been taken long ago” but welcomes the decision. A different article questions whether this is enough to save the Iran deal, noting Tehran’s lack of enthusiasm in response to the waivers, and the lack of trust that a diplomatic resolution would be upheld by future US administrations.

Americas

FlightSafety International won a $32 million contract for the exercise of the KC-46 Aircrew Training System (ATS) Production Year 7 options. The contract modification is for the exercise of option contract line item numbers for additional weapon system trainers, boom operator trainers, fuselage trainer, pilot part task trainers, support equipment, McChord site activations, systems engineering and program management, summative evaluation and new refresher training scenarios. Work will take place in Oklahoma. Estimated completion date is January 7, 2024.

Sikorsky won a $42.2 million deal for non-personal technical services in support of sustainment of the H-60 Black Hawk helicopter. Bids were solicited via the internet with one received. The US Army Contracting Command is the contracting activity. Estimated completion date is December 31, 2026.

Middle East & Africa

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) has delivered the first F-16 wing and vertical fin to Lockheed Martin, following the reopening of the F-16 wing assembly line at IAI. As a result of increased worldwide demand for the F-16 Block 70/72, IAI reopened the assembly lines that had been established in the 1980s to continue production of the F-16 aerostructures assembled at IAI. The F-16 wings and vertical fins will be shipped to the F-16 production and final assembly line in Greenville, South Carolina, USA.

Europe

The German ministry of Defense has contracted Thales to equip the former’s NH90 Multi Role Frigate Helicopter with FLASH SONICS dipping sonar and sonobuoy processing systems. The new configuration of the NH90 Multi Role Frigate Helicopter variant includes the latest processing technology which offers significant operational improvement. These helicopters will be the first to be equipped with the capability to process Thales new sonobuoy SonoFlash in addition to the FLASH world reference dipping sonar.

The Serbian Ministry of Defense placed an order for two Airbus C295 aircraft. The contract was signed in Madrid in the presence of senior government members of the Republic of Serbia and Spain. This contract will be accompanied by a Government-to-Government supervision agreement between the Ministries of Defense of Spain and the Republic of Serbia, which aims to study the development of future defence programmes between both nations. Airbus is committed to maintain and foster its close collaboration with the Republic of Serbia, which already operates Airbus military solutions.

Asia-Pacific

Boeing has won a $103.7 million contract by the US Department of Defense as part of a foreign military sale for eight AH-6 light attack reconnaissance helicopters to Thailand. The contract also includes spares, training devices, support equipment, and technical publications for the Royal Thai Army.

Today’s Video

WATCH: Thailand Orders AH-6 Light Attack Helicopters