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People gather to celebrate freedom in Damascus. UN News Credit: Gaith Sabbagh

By Alon Ben-Meir
NEW YORK, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

The fall of the Assad regime is a historic watershed event that will have significant regional and international ramifications. The question is, will the rebels fulfill their promise to be inclusive and lift the Syrian people out of their misery, and what can the US and Israel do to help shape the trajectory of the new regime?

It is hard to exaggerate the jubilation of the Syrian people when they heard the news about the fall of Bashar al-Assad, which ended a 52-year-old ‘dynasty’ that will be remembered as the darkest chapter of the country’s existence.

How long the public’s jubilation will last, and whether normalcy will be restored to a shattered country, will depend on whether the new government fulfills its promise to be inclusive, focusing on rebuilding the country and seeking peace and reconciliation, or simply replaces one ruthless dictatorship with a new one.

Perhaps it is premature to determine whether or not the rebels will keep their word with respect to their promises to be inclusive and treat every citizen, regardless of their ethnicity, equally before the law.

However, there are important and positive signs that the new leaders are likely to follow what they have been saying to demonstrate that they are committed to establishing responsible and legitimate governance.

To that end, they called for national unity and a peaceful transfer of power. The rebels’ leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, met with the outgoing prime minister Mohammed al-Jalali to discuss the transition of power to demonstrate his desire to work with experienced officials to ensure a smoother power transfer and temporarily supervise the bureaucracy.

Hadi al-Bahra, president of the Syrian National Coalition, outlined plans for an 18-month transitional period and extended his hand to help draft a new constitution and hold elections as desired by the rebel leaders.

To show the rebels’ leaders’ commitment to justice, they swore to hold accountable many army officers who were involved in torture and commit themselves to establishing “a state of freedom, equality, rule of law and democracy,” as Syria’s UN ambassador Koussay Aldahhak stated.

They instructed their followers to preserve the state’s institutions, restore essential services, and reopen banks to ensure economic stability. They further directed their rank and file to prevent the desecration of shrines and cultural centers of many ethnic groups, including the pro-Assad Alawites, making them feel reassured and optimistic that they would not be excluded from joining the political transitional process.

Given the reign of horror that was inflicted on the Syrian people, the new leaders appear to be committed to a new beginning that the public is yearning for, not simply replacing the ruthless Assad dictatorship with a new one.

They want to write a new chapter that would end the public’s pain, suffering, and despair, especially over the past 14 years since the outbreak of the Arab Spring, and bring hope for a better and promising future. On the whole, it appears as though a new era has dawned on Syria.

The above positive signs, however, are not free from the many challenges in regime change, which include integrating the armed groups into a unified structure and preserving all state institutions, as well as laborious negotiations between the numerous opposition groups with different ideologies and loyalties.

There are also concerns that hasty changes might invite other militant groups to emerge and plunge the country once again into a civil war and destroy what was left under Assad.

Finally, the more troubling concern is about the Islamic roots of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and the question is raised as to whether or not its leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, formerly affiliated with al-Qaida, would revert to extremism. To alleviate these concerns, he clarified that his severing of ties to al-Qaeda goes back several years and pledged to pursue pluralism, ethnic equality, and religious tolerance.

What transpires domestically will affect foreign powers, especially Turkey, Iran, and Russia, which have vested geostrategic interests in Syria. How the rebel leaders navigate between these rival powers will have significant repercussions for Syria and its place in an unstable region ladened with conflicts and competition for greater sway with the new leaders in Damascus.

Setting this aside, for now, the most urgent matter is for the US and Israel, in particular, to take several actions to encourage the new Syrian leadership to pursue what they have publicly promised and maintain the initial social, economic, and political steps they have taken.

The US should first remove HTS from the terrorist list to send a clear message that the US is willing to demonstrate its initial trust that the new leadership will indeed follow what they have promised. Since legitimacy is critical to the new leadership, the US should offer diplomatic recognition, conditional upon the rebels’ commitment to democracy and the rule of law.

In addition, the US should engage in back-channel diplomacy to discuss regional security and offer cooperation. The US could provide economic assistance by first removing the sanctions that date back to 2012, assisting in the efforts to recover funds stolen by Assad himself and his government, and supporting reconstruction efforts, which can significantly help improve living conditions and stabilize the country.

Finally, the US could offer technical know-how and training for civil society organizations and help promote independent media and democratic institutions.

By taking these and other measures, the US can demonstrate its commitment to supporting the Syrian peoples’ aspiration for democracy and the prospect of growth and prosperity while addressing the US’ concerns over regional stability.

To prevent any potential conflagration with the new Syrian government, Israel has established three red lines for the rebels, daring them not to cross. These include: 1) not letting chemical weapons fall into the hands of Jihadist rebels; 2) preventing Iran from deploying Iranian troops to rebuild any military installations on Syrian territory; and 3) no hostile forces deployed near the Israeli border.

Israel has already taken several precautionary measures to prevent any misunderstanding, which include temporarily seizing control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, bombing suspected chemical weapons sites, and implementing a curfew in several villages within the buffer zone.

Having conveyed that those are preventive measures, Israel can take several steps to encourage peaceful relationships with the new government while mitigating the rebels’ traditional hostilities toward Israel. To begin with, Israel should establish a line of communication with the rebels and extend humanitarian aid to develop goodwill.

In addition, Israel can offer economic incentives and demonstrate its interest in addressing Syria’s security concerns. By combining diplomatic outreach, strategic security measures, and financial incentives, Israel can develop a stable relationship with the new Syrian government while maintaining its security.

There are and will be several other critical issues that separate Israel and the rebels; chief among them is the future of the Golan Heights. However, whether or not the new government accepts Israel’s gestures, by taking these measures, Israel can create a positive atmosphere that can facilitate constructive negotiations about any conflicting issue in the future.

The stunning victory of the Syrian rebels opens up new possibilities for a more peaceful Middle East, or it can set the stage for even more intense violence, death, and destruction. The new Syrian authority must decide which way they choose to go. One thing, however, is certain.

Although other powers, especially Turkey, Russia, and Iran, have a unique interest in Syria’s future, what the US and Israel do will have the greatest impact on the path the new regime in Damascus will choose to travel.

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a retired professor of international relations, most recently at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He taught courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.
alon@alonben-meir.com Web: www.alonben-meir.com

IPS UN Bureau

 

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Mahrang Baloch recently was acknowledged by the BBC as one of the most inspiring and influential women from around the world for 2024. Credit: Baloch Yakjehti Committee

By Zofeen Ebrahim
KARACHI, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

“This recognition by a media outlet highlights the painful stories of abductions, torture, and the genocide of the Baloch people,” said 31-year-old political activist Mahrang Baloch, speaking with IPS over the phone from Quetta, Balochistan, in reference to her inclusion on the BBC’s annual list of 100 most inspiring and influential women from around the world for 2024.

“BBC 100 Women acknowledges the toll this year has taken on women by celebrating those who—through their resilience—are pushing for change as the world changes around them,” stated the media organization.

This is the second award that Mahrang received this year. In October, she was among Time magazine’s ‘2024 Time100 Next’ list of young individuals to recognize for “advocating peacefully for Baloch rights.”

She was invited by the magazine to attend a ceremony in New York, but she was stopped at the airport from boarding the plane on October 7 “without giving me a reason” why. She stated that she was termed a “terrorist” and a “suicide bomber,” with multiple cases filed against her. “And if this were not enough, now I and my brother have been placed on the Fourth Schedule list,” she said. Introduced in 1997, the Fourth Schedule aimed to combat sectarian violence, militancy, and terrorism. Almost 4,000 Baloch have been placed in the Fourth Schedule list.

Being placed on the Fourth Schedule under the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) is a serious matter, resulting in restrictions such as travel bans, frozen bank accounts, prohibitions on financial support, arms license embargoes, and employment clearance limitations.

A trained medical doctor, Mahrang began protesting against the alleged abductions and killings of innocent Baloch by Pakistani security forces in 2006, well before her father, a political activist, forcibly disappeared in 2009. His tortured body was discovered in 2011.

In 2017, her brother was abducted, and though he was released in 2018, Mahrang continued to advocate for justice for all the disappeared, despite facing threats and intimidation. In 2019, she founded the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), a human rights movement dedicated to raising awareness and seeking justice for the Baloch people.

Balochistan’s history of resistance against the Pakistan government began in 1948 and continues. Pakistan’s military, paramilitary and intelligence forces have responded with kidnapping, torturing and killing tens of thousands of Baloch men.

The Voice for the Baloch Missing Persons, a non-profit organisation representing family members of those who disappeared in Balochistan, has registered approximately 7,000 cases since 2000.

“We have been fighting for our families now for over two decades, on every platform. I have appeared in courts, even the Supreme Court of Pakistan, presented our cause at every commission and committee that the government or the judiciary has set up but so far there has been no progress. In fact, in the last three months of this year alone, more Baloch individuals are being picked than in any other time,” said Nasrullah Baloch, chairman of the VBMP, speaking to IPS over the phone.

“We have no confidence in any government institution, especially the government-constituted Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances (CoIED), anymore to resolve our issue,” he rued.

But neither does the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ). In 2020, Ian Seiderman, ICJ’s Legal and Policy Director, stated the commission (established in 2011) had failed to hold even a single perpetrator of enforced disappearance responsible.

“A commission that does not address impunity nor facilitate justice for victims and their families can certainly not be considered effective,” he said.

Since the ICJ’s policy brief, not much seems to have changed. Indeed, Mahrang asserts that the situation has deteriorated. In the past three months, “over 300 Baloch have been abducted, and seven cases of extrajudicial killings have been reported.” On the other hand, the CoIED reported that it had resolved 8,015 of the 10,285 cases it had investigated from 2011 to June 2024.

In 2021 and then again in 2022, Pakistan’s parliament tried passing a bill to criminalize enforced disappearances but it has not yet come into force. Pakistan has refused to ratify the International Convention for the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance.

Media’s Dismal Role

While the international media has given Baloch activists like Mahrang “hope” by amplifying their voices and bringing “visibility” to their “genuine” cause, she said it has failed to ignite the Pakistani media.

“Our national media has failed us,” she lamented, adding that they never supported their “genuine” cause. In such circumstances, the recognition by the international media gives her some “hope.”

Prominent journalist and author Mohammad Hanif, who has consistently highlighted the issue of missing Baloch, described Mahrang as “articulate, clearheaded, and inspirational.” He admitted that the media in Pakistan has not given the issue adequate coverage, revealing, “There were standing instructions to newsrooms not to cover it.” Furthermore, he pointed out a “clear bias among mainstream journalists against Baloch issues.”

Talat Hussain, political commentator and journalist, agreed that media coverage of enforced disappearances had been “limited and partially blacked out” but added it was not entirely absent in its coverage.

He acknowledged he had not covered the issue extensively, not because he had been asked to avoid it, but because the overwhelming news flow in Islamabad, driven by political unrest, protests, rising terrorism, and economic challenges, eclipsed everything.

However, Hussain noted that what was considered a human rights issue had become deeply politicized, increasingly intertwined with Baloch separatism. Many now view the activists as opponents of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects. “This complicates efforts to recognize Mahrang solely as a human rights campaigner,” he remarked.

Farah Zia, director of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, declined to equate the BYC with the separatist movement. She described women like Mahrang, who “come out to protest and even lead them,” as a refreshing phenomenon. “This completely unarmed, non-violent resistance movement makes these young women leaders extremely powerful.” Moreover, said Zia, “Even her followers are young, educated Baloch who have defied their traditional power centres, including their tribal elders.”

“They have broken many stereotypes associated with Baloch women,” agreed Zohra Yusuf, a rights activist. In 2023, Mahrang led hundreds of women on a 1,000-mile (1,600 km) march to the capital Islamabad to demand information on the whereabouts of their family members. She was arrested twice during the journey. The BBC highlighted her December 2023 march to Islamabad, where she and hundreds of women marched for “justice for their husbands, sons, and brothers.”

“The people of Balochistan see Mahrang and the BYC as a beacon of hope because they have completely lost faith in the politicians,” pointed out Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur, who has been associated with the Baloch rights struggle since 1971 and wrote about violations of their rights in newspapers till 2015, after which he said the “media stopped publishing my pieces due to state pressure.”

“There are no consequences for those implementing disappear, kill and dump policies,” said Hanif. “The state believes in its own brute colonial power.”

“Enforced disappearances will continue as there is total impunity for the perpetrators. Those associated with the intelligence and security agencies have no regard for the rule of law,” pointed out Yusuf. She said the young doctor had exhibited “positive leadership qualities by being firm on her demands without creating hatred towards anyone.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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IPS UN Bureau, IPS UN Bureau Report, Pakistan

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Water floods in, showing how nature and people are at risk. Trees can't grow because of salt, leaving no protection. This photo warns about climate change's effect on our islands and atolls. It's a clear sign we need to act to keep our world safe. Credit: Gitty Keziah Yee/Tuvalu

By Tanka Dhakal
THE HAGUE, Dec 13 2024 (IPS)

Rising sea level caused by greenhouse gas emission-fueled climate change is threatening existence in coastal communities and island nations. At the International Court of Justice (ICJ), on Thursday, December 12, 2024, small island states, including Tuvalu and a Pacific-based fisheries agency detailed their ongoing existential threats caused by the climate change-induced sea level rise and impacts on fishery-based livelihood.

Tuvalu, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA) both focused their oral presentations before the court on highlighting added and exacerbated struggles faced by people in the region through visual evidence and testimony of the frontline community.

At the request of Vanuatu, the UN General Assembly asked the ICJ to issue an advisory opinion on the obligations of UN member states in preventing climate change and ensuring the protection of the environment for present and future generations. While its advisory opinion will not be enforceable, the court will advise on the legal consequences for member states who have caused significant harm, particularly to small island developing states. So far, more than 100 countries and agencies have presented their case before the court.

On Thursday, island states stressed the disproportionate effects of climate change on small islands, urging the court to recognize the duty of cooperation, the stability of maritime zones, and the principle of continuity of statehood.

Climate Crisis Can not be Solved in Isolation—Tuvalu

Tuvalu, a small island nation in the South Pacific with over 11,000 people, emphasized its right to self-determination and territorial integrity at a time when it is facing an existential threat from climate change-induced sea level rise.

The low-lying island nation of Tuvalu is fighting for its existence; according to scientists, much of their land area, along with critical infrastructure, will be under water by 2050. Tuvalu urged the ICJ to issue a strong advisory opinion on states’ obligations to combat climate change and protect small island states.

Furthering the submission, Laingane Italeli Talia, Attorney General of Tuvalu, said climate change is the single greatest threat the country is facing. “It cannot be that in the face of such unprecedented and irreversible harm, international law is silent.

“Tuvalu, accordingly, asks the court to keep the unprecedented infringement on our people’s right to self-determination at the very center of his critical advisory opinion in order to help chart the pathway forward for our very survival.”

‘Annihilation Posed By Nuclear Weapons’ 

Professor Phillipa Webb, representing Tuvulu, used the analogy that the threat of disappearance faced by states like Tuvalu is like the potential annihilation posed by nuclear weapons.

“This extreme circumstance triggers all the tools that international law provides for respecting statehood, ensuring territorial integrity and protecting sovereignty over natural resources,” Webb said.

“Tuvalu’s constitution affirms that its statehood will remain in perpetuity, notwithstanding any loss to its physical territory. In the same way that the right to survival requires state continuity, the right also compels respect for territorial integrity, which encompasses a state’s permanent sovereignty over its natural resources,” Webb said, drawing on the drawing on the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States.

“Respect for territorial integrity and territorial sovereignty is an essential foundation of international relations in the context of climate change. This obliges States to prevent and mitigate transboundary environmental harm. It requires that States facilitate adaptation to climate change impacts, and these measures should not be limited to the preservation and restoration of coasts and islands but also to protecting the rights of peoples to self-determination.”

The right to self-determination includes aspects other than physical land, and the court should take this into account.

“Territorial integrity, a corollary of the right to self-determination, is not limited to physical land territory. It must be conceived as a historical and cultural norm linked to the vitality, dignity and identity of the people holding the right to self-determination to ensure respect for territorial integrity goes beyond ensuring the maintenance of physical land boundaries. Like other concepts in international law, such as cultural heritage, biodiversity and intellectual property, it covers tangible and intangible assets.”

Quoting Tuvaluan climate activist Grace Malie, Webb told the court, “Tuvalu will not go quietly into the rising sea.”

Statehood Should be Ensured—AOSIS

AOSIS submitted its case on behalf of the 39 small island and low-lying coastal developing states and urged it to consider the existential threat posed by climate change-induced sea level rise and the possibility that some states may not even have dry land in the near future.

It emphasizes the importance of equity and self-determination in the context of climate change and the need for international law to support the continuity of statehood and sovereignty.

Fatumanava-o-Upolu III Dr. Pa’olelei Luteru, Chair of AOSIS and Permanent Representative of Samoa to the United Nations, focused on the impact of the climate crisis on states defined by the ocean’s limited resources and geographic vulnerability.

“Small island developing states rely heavily on coastal and marine resources as key drivers of our economies,” he said. “However, climate change is disrupting the fishery sector because of warming waters and an altered marine environment.”

The AOSIS asked the court to uphold the principle of continuity of statehood as established in international law, ensuring that statehood and sovereignty endure despite physical changes to land territory.

Luteru added, “In this era of unprecedented and relentless sea level rise, international law must evolve to meet the climate crisis and the disproportionate effect that it has on states.”

Focus on Sustainability of Tuna Fisheries—FFA

Rising sea level and ocean warming are not only threatening the existence of island nations but they are also hammering a major way of livelihood, fishing. Representing the fishing community at the ICJ, FFA highlighted the state of loss of fisheries, including tuna.

Tuna fisheries are crucial for the economic, social, and cultural development of Pacific Island communities, with 47 percent of households depending on fishing as a primary or secondary source of income.

FFA, an intergovernmental agency, focuses on sustainable use of offshore fisheries resources, particularly tuna, which are facing threats to climate change impacts.

“Damage to fisheries and loss of fish stocks will have a significant negative impact on the income, livelihoods, food security and economies of Pacific small island developing states, as well as social and cultural impacts,” Pio Manoa, Deputy Director General of FFA, said.

“Climate change is driving tuna further to the east and outside of members, exclusive economic zones into the high seas, threatening the loss of economic and food security of Pacific small and developing states.”

Studies show climate change-driven redistribution of commercial tuna species will cause an economic blow to the small island states of the Western and Central Pacific, ultimately threatening the sustainability of the world’s largest tuna fishery.

By 2050, under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of 10 of the Pacific small islands developing states members of the agency could decline by an average of 13 percent.

“The adverse consequences for the livelihood and well-being of coastal communities are profound, including their very security and survival impacts on marine resources, including offshore fisheries such as tuna,” Manoa said. “It is therefore incumbent upon the international community to take necessary action to deal with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and their consequences.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Excerpt:

Territorial integrity is not limited to physical land territory. It must be conceived as of a historical and cultural norm linked to the vitality, dignity and identity of the people holding the right to self-determination to ensure respect for territorial integrity goes beyond ensuring the maintenance of physical land boundaries—Professor Phillipa Webb

A doctors' union says long hours for little or no pay is leaving trainee medics with poor mental health.

A doctors' union says long hours for little or no pay is leaving trainee medics with poor mental health.

A doctors' union says long hours for little or no pay is leaving trainee medics with poor mental health.

Four-year-old Walaa, a displaced Sudanese child, peers through the door in her new home in Al Karama, a gathering point for displaced people in Kassala state. Credit: UNICEF/Ahmed Mohamdeen Elfatih

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

On December 9, a wave of bombardments hit a market district in Sudan, killing at least 127 people. Over eight barrel bombs were launched on the North Darfur town Kabkabiya, marking the latest attacks on densely populated areas that occurred throughout the course of the Sudanese Civil War. Both the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have received immense criticism from humanitarian organizations for committing abuses against civilians that constitute violations of international humanitarian law.

According to figures from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 61,000 people have died in the Khartoum state alone in the wake of hostilities in Sudan. The United Nations (UN) adds that conflict has displaced over 11 million people, making this the biggest displacement crisis in the world. Additionally, there has been considerable damage on critical civilian infrastructure over the course of the war.

On December 11, the International Rescue Committee (IRC) released a report which declared that the 20-month civil war in Sudan has generated “the biggest humanitarian crisis ever recorded”. Despite Sudan only containing approximately 1 percent of the global population, the nation contains over 10 percent of people in need of humanitarian assistance globally.

The SAF issued a statement on December 11 in which they denied responsibility for the recent attack, describing the accusations levied against it as “lies”. They further added that they believed they had the right to target any regions that are occupied by the RSF. The RSF has not responded as of yet.

On December 10, the RSF committed a heavy artillery shelling in a neighborhood in Omdurman, the largest city in the Khartoum state. According to the state government, this attack killed over 65 civilians and wounded hundreds of others. The RSF, described by the government as a “terrorist militia”, committed the “largest human massacre by shelling civilians in Karari locality.” The shelling also hit the Sabreen market and neighboring districts, as well a public transportation vehicle in the 17th district, killing all passengers on board.

The Director-General of Sudan’s Ministry of Health Fath al-Rahman Muhammad al-Amin informed reporters that casualties continue to be documented and that healthcare personnel are struggling to save lives in the midst of an influx of injured persons.

Mohamed Abdiladif, the interim country director for Save the Children in Sudan, described the two attacks as “unacceptable” as they took place in densely populated areas where families shopped for food with their children. Abdalif urged the warring parties to refrain from targeting markets, schools, healthcare facilities, and other integral public infrastructure not just as a moral obligation, he said, “but a vital step towards ensuring a stable, peaceful, and prosperous future for Sudan.”

“All wars are brutal, but the toll of this one is particularly horrifying. Indiscriminate attacks are killing civilians, including young children, some of the areas of most severe need remain cut off entirely, with no access to humanitarian aid,” warned Amy Pope, Director-General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM).

Amnesty International reports that gender-based violence, mass killings, and blockages of humanitarian aid are regular occurrences in Sudan. Furthermore, there has been a new wave of hostilities in west Darfur, with reports of ethnic cleansing of the Masalit community on the rise.

Additionally, hostilities have continued to escalate in the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur. Thousands of refugees have been faced with sporadic bombardments from the RSF since December 1, causing them to flee in hordes from their makeshift homes. The camp’s spokesperson, Mohammed Khamis Doda, confirmed that renewed artillery shelling in the camp resulted in at least 9 civilian casualties on December 9. Numerous witnesses described the RSF using long-range missiles, which destroyed several housing units in the camp.

As a result of extended warfare, living conditions for millions of Sudanese civilians have deteriorated significantly. In August of this year, the Famine Review Committee (FRC) determined the presence of famine within the Zamzam camp. On December 6, Doctors Without Borders, known by its French acronym MSF, reported a total of 737 cases of cholera, indicating the presence of a deepening outbreak.

The situation in Malakal remains critical, and we are concerned that the outbreak is spreading to neighbouring areas such as Tonga and Kodok,” said Zakaria Mwatia, MSF’s head of mission in the country.

The Sudanese government has urged humanitarian organizations to scale up responses as the scale of needs grows by the day. Additionally, Sudanese civilians have urgently requested an increase in protections.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a report in which they indicated a host of violations of international humanitarian law occurring in Sudan. “The Rapid Support Forces’ abuse of civilians in South Kordofan is emblematic of continuing atrocities across Sudan. These new findings underscore the urgent need for the deployment of a mission to protect civilians in Sudan,” said Jean-Baptiste Gallopin, senior crisis and conflict researcher at Human Rights Watch.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Félix Morfis, next to photovoltaic panels installed on his house in Regla municipality, Havana. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños /IPS

By Dariel Pradas
HAVANA, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

With Decree 110, published on 26 November, Cuba made it mandatory for major consumers, whether they are state or private entities, to invest in the use of renewable energy sources, while the energy crisis facing the country worsens.

According to the decree, state and private economic actors, representations of foreign institutions and associations must guarantee in new investments regarded as “major consumers of energy carriers” that half of the electricity they consume during daylight hours comes from renewable energy sources.

If they cannot install solar panels, due to the infrastructure of their premises, these entities must enter into contracts with the state-owned Unión Eléctrica – the guarantor of the generation, transmission and commercialisation of electricity – and connect to photovoltaic parks.

Breaking these provisions can lead to fines, interruption of electricity service for up to 72 hours and other sanctions.

“The measure reflects a failure in the policy of incentives for investment in renewable energy sources. It may favour the general population, but it doesn’t change the fact that the change in the energy matrix is being imposed with an iron fist,” Daniel López, a self-employed Havana resident, told IPS.

Entities considered major consumers – those that, in the last 12 months, have an average consumption of 30,000 kilowatts (KW) or 50,000 litres of fuel – will have three years to make investments to cover the 50% daytime use requirement.

Reactions on social media immediately followed the news: many internet users celebrated the decree, some were sceptical about its implementation, and a significant number feared for the impact it could have on the private sector.

“Is it viable providing a better service or increasing my production to have to pay more (by investing in solar panels), and not just in taxes? How many businesses are we going to lose because of this decree? Investment in Cuba is increasingly difficult,” commented user Horus in an article on the subject, published in Cubadebate, the most widely read state-run news website in the country.

Indeed, the law could discourage entrepreneurship in mini-industries or productive areas that normally consume a lot of electricity, or even cause businesses to raise the prices of some products and services to recoup investment costs.

Since 2020, this Caribbean island nation with 10 million people has been facing great difficulties in meeting its domestic electricity demand with its production plants.

The instability of the electro-energy system has been so evident that, in less than two months, Cuba has suffered three general power cuts – the latest on Wednesday 4 December – that have left hundreds of thousands of people without electricity for days.

Workers inside a private lathe workshop in Havana’s Patio El Triunfo, whose electricity supply comes from renewable sources. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

In the absence of incentives

The Patio El Triunfo project, located in the capital’s Regla municipality, is an example of a private business that is self-sufficient in renewable energy sources. It has installed photovoltaic panels with a generation of 10 kilowatts (KW), as well as solar heaters and dryers, and a 0.5 KW wind turbine.

This “clean” energy covers the daytime demand of the house and four businesses that are leased on the premises, including an auto mechanic’s workshop and a lathe shop.

Although the workshops have been in existence since 2010, in 2018 the project began the autonomous production of electricity, the surplus of which it sells to Unión Eléctrica.

The leader of the project, Félix Morfis, who is also the Regla representative of Cubasolar, a non-governmental organisation that has been promoting the use of renewable energy sources in Cuba since 1994 to replace polluting ones, criticises the prices of solar panels and the bureaucratic obstacles to accessing credit and buying them.

“It seems that the Cuban government has no interest whatsoever in people putting up solar panels. They advertise it, they hype it a lot, but actually there is nothing in hand,” he told IPS.

In the retail markets of the state-owned company Copextel, a basic one-kW generation module costs 2,551 MLC, the freely convertible currency, which is virtual and whose reference value is the dollar.

The average wage in Cuba is 4,648 pesos, about US$38.7, according to the official exchange rate of 120 pesos to one dollar.

In 2021, the Ministry of Finance and Prices issued Resolution 359,, which set the price for energy – from renewable sources – delivered to the National Electricity System (SEN) by independent producers in the residential sector: 3 pesos per kilowatt hour (kWh), about 0.025 dollars at the official exchange rate.

In October 2023, the same ministry approved Resolution 238, which doubled that amount.

“They are paying us 6 pesos (US$ 0.05) per kWh, but what I spend, they charge me through the normal system. They sell it to me at a high price and pay me cheaply. There is no incentive,” Morfis added.

The “normal system” that Morfis mentions is a progressive tariff that applies to the residential sector, which after exceeding 450 KWh of accumulated consumption, starts to cost more than six pesos per KWh, until it reaches 20 pesos per KWh (about US$ 0.17).

In any case, it is a subsidised price, according to the authorities, so that the cost of paying for electricity through the national electricity system is only marginally lower than importing or buying solar panels in foreign currency. In the end, it is more profitable not to invest in renewable energy sources.

Even so, more and more people are investing in solar panels with batteries, and private businesses that commercialise these devices have multiplied due to recurrent power outages and fuel shortages.

With no new cards in hand, the government imposed investment in renewable energy sources through Decree 110.

“The most difficult thing is how to make it easier for all the companies to pay for these panels,” Néstor Pérez, a member of the Patio El Triunfo project, told IPS.

Basic module for the production of electricity from solar sources, inside a market in Havana, specialised in the sale of equipment for the use of renewable energy sources, belonging to the state-owned company Copextel. Credit: Jorge Luis Baños / IPS

Overview of renewable energy sources

In addition to decentralised energy generation and reducing the burden on the state, the new decree aims to reduce on imported-fuel dependency.

Since 2019, when the government issued Decree-Law 345 on the “development of renewable sources and the efficient use of energy”, this policy has been a priority.

Cuba aims for renewable energy sources to account for 24% of its energy matrix by 2030.

President Miguel Díaz-Canel announced on 27 November that more than 2,000 megawatts (MW) of photovoltaic energy, equivalent to two million KW, is planned for the next three years.

However, of the 19,825 gigawatt hours (GWh) produced in 2023, 46% came from thermoelectric plants and 12.6% from using thermal energy from oil-fired natural gas, according to data from the  National Statistics and Information Office (Onei).

Likewise, 13.8% was produced by gensets, electricity generators interconnected to the system that run on diesel and fuel oil, and 22.7% from the six floating plants contracted to the Turkish company Karpowership.

Only 0.5% came from hydroelectric plants and 1.2% from wind and photovoltaic power.

Morocco will host the Women's Africa Cup of Nations for a third time in a row as the qualifying draw for the 2026 finals is announced.

Morocco will host the Women's Africa Cup of Nations for a third time in a row as the qualifying draw for the 2026 finals is announced.

The Nobel Peace Prize Forum with leading experts on global nuclear politics, including three former Nobel laureates, convened to discuss the continued risk of nuclear weapons. Credit: Soka Gakkai mInternational.

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS & OSLO, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

The existential threat that nuclear weapons present remains as pertinent as ever, even when they have not been deployed in war for nearly 80 years. As some countries seek out nuclear weapons or to upgrade and modernize their existing warheads, global voices in nuclear politics and disarmament warn of the potential risk of a new nuclear arms race amid the weakening of nuclear treaties that prohibit the proliferation and use of nuclear arms.

At this year’s Nobel Peace Prize Forum in Oslo, Norway, leading experts on global nuclear politics, including three former Nobel laureates, convened to discuss the risk of growing nuclear arsenals and what must be done to mitigate these risks. The forum ‘NUKES: How to Counter the Threat’ was hosted on December 11 at University Aula with the support of the city of Oslo, the International Forum for Understanding, and Soka Gakkai International.

The Nobel Institute has awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on 13 occasions to individuals and groups whose work was in service to the argument for the prohibition of nuclear weapons. This was seen up to the present day with Japanese grassroots organization Nihon Hidankyo, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on December 10. When accepting the award, co-chair Terumi Tanaka called for the world to listen to the testimonies of A-bomb survivors and to feel the “deep inhumanity of nuclear weapons.”

The forum began with the testimonies from two Hibakusha, survivors of the atomic bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

Keiko Ogura was eight years old in Hiroshima. She recalled the trauma she carried with her in the aftermath of the bombing, as she saw people die around her, not yet knowing that they were suffering due to radiation. She and other Hibakusha came forward years later to share their experiences and the direct costs of deploying nuclear weapons.

“Before I die, we want to see this planet free of nuclear weapons,” said Ogura. “For us, discounting the number of nuclear weapons is nonsense. A single nuclear weapon means destruction of this world.”

Masao Tomonaga was two years old when Nagasaki was bombed, and his memories of that time are based on his mother’s recollections of that day. He followed in his father’s footsteps to become a doctor, who oversaw Hibakusha care at Nagasaki University and conducted research into the medical consequences of radiation from nuclear fallout. In his own research, Tomonaga found that the stem cells in the survivors’ bodies contained genetic abnormalities due to radiation, which made them vulnerable to leukemia and cancer. As one of the few cells that accumulates and survives across generations, he noted, they also accumulate “genetic errors” that could occur randomly across a lifetime. He hypothesized that the Hibakusha likely held pre-cancerous cells within them.

In the past decade, there have been efforts to reduce the number of nuclear warheads among the countries that held them. Yet in recent years, the attitude has started to shift in the opposite direction. Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano Grossi, remarked that this shift is marked by military nuclear doctrines that were previously respected and are now being questioned or overstepped.

“We are seeing a normalization of discourse of use of nuclear weapons,” Grossi warned, remarking on how these doctrines are being revisited to allow for some concession for the possession and use of nuclear weapons.

In such times, Grossi remarked, world leaders have an “irrevocable responsibility” to make the critical steps forward to nuclear disarmament. “It’s time that we are reminded at the right level of the necessity of this decision at the top, whether we like it or not,” he said. “We hope that this determination of the world leadership to tackle the issue of nuclear weapons, especially in a world so fragmented as the one we have.”

Yet in the debate of nuclear disarmament, countries seem split on their thinking of nuclear weapons. Experts also warned that the more ‘casual’ discussions of nuclear weapons by major parties also demonstrates an undermining of nuclear treaties. Although 191 member states joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), critics have pointed out that this has not been enforced to the extent that it is intended to, especially among the major players.

Speaking during a panel discussion on the risks of nuclear activity, Manpreet Sethi of the Centre for Air Power Studies in New Delhi, India, reflected on how certain countries—nuclear powers—held different perceptions of the risk of nuclear warfare.

“There is no shared sense of risk like there was during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962,” Sethi said. “Everyone is perceiving risk differently.” Sethi also remarked that countries were pushing the boundaries on the ‘nuclear envelope’—the limits on nuclear deployment, evident in the language used in discussing nuclear arms and proliferation.

The threat of nuclear warfare is also heightened when considering the advances made in technology and the impact of modernization and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. Wilfred Wan, Director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme in SIPRI, noted that disruptive technologies such as AI and automation would only “increase the vulnerabilities in nuclear weapons.” The relative unknown factors that remain with AI would also bring an “aura of instability [and] unpredictability to nuclear weapons.” “The only way to eliminate risk… is to eliminate nuclear weapons,” said Wan.

What are the measures then to mitigate the risks of nuclear arsenals in the present day? For one, dialogue between nuclear states and non-nuclear states is one possible step forward for non-nuclear states to call for nuclear states to cease their activities and work towards reduction. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that the Global South is in a position to make these demands, especially as many of these countries are also signatories to the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

Melissa Parke, Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), has said that one step forward would be for all countries, including nuclear powers, to sign the TPNW. The United Nations recently approved a new study on the effects of nuclear warfare for the modern age, a study that would be more comprehensive and update the understanding of nuclear warfare for the 21st century.

“The new UN study will be looking at things like the latest scientific confirmation from the 2022 Nature Food Journal that… even a limited nuclear war would not only kill millions of people outright, but it would cause global climate disruption, massive amounts of soot going into the stratosphere, circling the globe, blocking out sunlight, causing agricultural collapse, and the death by starvation of more than 2 billion people in a nuclear winter,” said Parke.

“I expect the new study will confirm what the Hibakusha have been telling us—have been warning us about. That the risks are real, immediate, and immense. Confronting them now is not a matter of choice but of necessity,” she said. “And that the necessary action is not just no-use but total nuclear disarmament, as that is the only way of eliminating the existential threat of nuclear weapons.”

A concerted, collective effort will be needed to put pressure on nuclear states to move towards non-proliferation and disarmament. That effort can begin on the individual level.

Ogura remarked that the world held a collective responsibility to prohibit nuclear weapons, from world leaders to the youth of the next generation. This could be achieved if the experiences of the Hibakusha and the survivors of nuclear fallout and testing are shared and never forgotten. With a hint of optimism, she said, “We are more than just a single drop.” Water spreads the word—through the ocean, the tide, through the continent. I have a belief—someday we can make it.”

Note: This article is brought to you by IPS Noram in collaboration with INPS Japan and Soka Gakkai International in consultative status with ECOSOC.

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By David Nabarro
GENEVA, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

Frustrations over the pace of climate action and the size of the finance target agreed in Baku are valid from the perspective of low-income countries, especially Small-Island Developing States (SIDS). It is also important to recognize that there has been real progress in some countries at the agri-food-nutrition-climate-water-nature-livelihoods intersection, and this seems to be particularly the case in some countries in the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation (ACF).

David Nabarro

The finance negotiations at COP29: Climate negotiations become harder as the stakes get higher. The focus of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan was on climate finance. The intention was to increase the target for finance to go to developing countries to help them protect their people and economies against climate disasters and invest into clean energy. This would come in the form of a new goal for global climate finance. Negotiating a finance goal was never going to be straightforward. It is challenging for nations to agree an amount that is fair for everyone and, at the same time, politically feasible for those that are asked to provide the cash. The last hours of COP29 in Baku were difficult and many participants felt dissatisfied when they left.

Solid floor on which to build: But the outcome – a new global goal of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035, from public, private and innovative sources, with developed nations committing $300 billion per year – is a real increase on the previous target of $100bn a year. It is a solid floor on which to build. Is the amount big enough? Will it be made available to those who need it soon enough? I cannot say at this stage. Securing a sustainable future for all requires continued goodwill, engagement and collaboration. This is only possible if all concerned ensure the transparent provision, effective delivery and efficient use of promised funds. This will pave the way for greater confidence among donors and further increases in available resources.

Growing momentum on the agri-food-nutrition-climate + intersection: I sensed a greater recognition that those who produce food are affected first, and worst, by climate change, and that the numbers of people at risk of food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition are on the rise with the most affected being women and children. Agri-food systems contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions while, at the same time, having the potential to sequester carbon dioxide. That makes them quite special within climate discussions though – for now – it appears hard to bring them into the negotiations.

What is the basis for this? The contacts I have had with national food systems convenors and climate focal points, during the last two years, suggest that several governments are seeking ways to transform food systems in ways that converge their agri-food systems with climate action. They do this in ways that reflect the aspirations in the COP28 UAE declaration on Sustainable agriculture, Resilient food systems and Climate action endorsed by 160 Heads of Government last year. Some countries have come together in an ambitious Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation. There is backing available through different entities in the UN system, the UN Food Systems Coordination Hub, the Technical Cooperation Collaborative, the COP29 Baku Harmoniya Climate Initiative for Farmers, as well as different elements of a wide ecosystem of support which is constantly inspired by the Climate Champions, regional organizations and more. There is a lot of effort being invested in streamlining and connecting these efforts.

Younger people: In COP29 there was greater engagement of younger people who were systematically welcomed and actively engaged in many events. With their consistent focus on inclusion, governance, and accountability, their participation greatly adds to the ambition and potential impact of the different processes underway.

A will to work together: COP29 was a massive and complex event involving around 60,000 people from nearly 200 countries. I saw how the different groups that were there engaged in constructive ways and I appreciated the contributions of the organizers, volunteers, participants of all ages (especially younger people), governments, local authorities, farmers, advocates, businesses, civil society, media, and others. Despite their different perspectives they engaged in constructive dialogue, all are working for sustainable and just futures. The work on food and agriculture advances well and all those I met in Baku were doing their best to work together harmoniously. Many wanted greater ambition. Some are acutely frustrated because they fear for their future and sense underlying injustice. Not all agree on what to prioritize. But overall, though, I sense remarkable momentum which is paving the way for more substantive action even if the international geopolitical context is very difficult.

Looking ahead: Climate change is an exponential and existential challenge with increasingly severe consequences for many millions of people. The work ahead is immense and increasingly ambitious and innovative actions will be required. The journey ahead requires skilfully chosen investments that foster convergent ways of working: these will be needed more than ever in the years to come. Going further and faster requires everyone to focus on maintaining connections, fostering dialogue, nurturing respect, sharing energy and sustaining trust. The interactions in Baku showed me what might be possible, and I am impatient for more. Our 4SD Foundation will continue to contribute with its focus on sustaining cross-sector, interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder convergence through structured dialogues.

David Nabarro, Strategic Director 4SD Foundation, Geneva

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Credit: Syldavia/iStock by Getty Images via IMF

By Ilan Goldfajn and Rodrigo Valdés
WASHINGTON DC, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

Violent crime and insecurity have a disproportionate impact on Latin America and the Caribbean, with severe consequences for socioeconomic development.

Despite representing just 8% of the world’s population, the region accounts for nearly one-third of global homicides. This as well as other alarming statistics highlight the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address the far-reaching effects of crime and violence.

New research by the IDB and IMF highlights how crime, insecurity and low growth reinforce each other in a vicious cycle that stifles investment, reduces tourism, and accelerates emigration.

Macroeconomic instability—recessions, inflation spikes, and rising inequality—is associated with increased violence. Easily available firearms and organized crime amplify these effects, undermining institutions and the rule of law.

Quantifying the Costs of Crime

A recent IDB paper quantifies the direct losses, estimating that crime and violence cost the region 3.4 percent of GDP annually. These costs stem from productivity losses due to lives lost, injuries, and imprisonment; private-sector expenditures on security; and public spending on police, justice, and prisons.

This is equivalent to 80 percent of the region’s public education budgets and double its social assistance spending. But the impact of crime doesn’t end there. It discourages investment, reduces tourism, and drives emigration, further weakening economic resilience and constraining the region’s future growth.

IMF research reveals that crime hampers innovation and reduces firm productivity, compounding economic stagnation over time. Leveraging geo-localized data on nightlights, the study finds that halving homicide rates in violent municipalities could increase their economic output by up to 30 percent.

At the regional level, as shown in last year’s IMF research, reducing homicide rates to the global average could boost Latin America and the Caribbean’s annual GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points.

Conversely, macroeconomic instability often fuels spikes in violence: a recession in LAC is associated with a 6 percent increase in homicides the following year, while inflation spikes above 10 percent are linked to a 10 percent rise in homicides the year after. Growing inequality further exacerbates the link between economic stagnation and crime.

How can policymakers help break the cycle?

Breaking this vicious circle requires a deeper understanding of its root causes and impacts. Rigorous research and better data are essential for designing public policies that effectively reduce crime. Institutions like the IDB and IMF can generate evidence, monitor crime dynamics, advise member countries, and facilitate discussions.

As the topic has become macro critical in the region, the institutions brought together experts and policymakers in a joint conference a few weeks back.

First, sound economic policy plays a preventive role. Stability, low inflation, robust social safety nets, and opportunities that reduce inequality and expand access to education and employment are critical to breaking the cycle of violence and stagnation.

Financial authorities are also uniquely positioned to weaken criminal networks by addressing illicit markets, curtailing financial flows, and tackling money laundering—cutting off resources that sustain organized crime.

Second, because the impact of crime extends far beyond direct economic costs, economic policymakers must adopt a broader role by targeting high-risk groups, improving crime monitoring, and enhancing interagency coordination.

Effective interventions can deliver transformative results. With IMF support, Jamaica implemented reforms that protected public investment and social spending while successfully halving debt between 2012 and 2022. Community-based interventions supported by the IDB reduced gang violence in 68% of affected neighborhoods.

In Rosario province, Argentina implemented a comprehensive strategy to combat crime, including territorial control of high-risk neighborhoods by the Federal Police, stricter prison systems for high-profile offenders, and collective prosecution of criminal groups under new legislation like the anti-mafia law.

These efforts, alongside progress on a juvenile penal code to deter drug traffickers from recruiting minors, have led to 65% reduction homicides in 11 months. In Honduras, strategic security reforms contributed to a 14% decline in the homicide rate and an 8% increase in public confidence in law enforcement.

Policymakers must prioritize using resources effectively, given the scope of the challenge. Public spending on security in the region is already high—around 1.9 percent of GDP, or 7.4 percent of total public expenditure—and may be even greater where the military and subnational governments are involved.

Finance ministers and fiscal authorities need a full understanding of these costs, covering police, courts, prisons, and related institutions, to ensure funds are allocated efficiently to areas with the highest impact. They also need to monitor them in the same way they surveil other large spending tickets, evaluating their impact and pressing for results.

Transnational Crime Demands Regional Cooperation

Tackling crime solely at the national level isn’t sufficient. Criminal groups operate across borders, making isolated responses ineffective and fragmented. To address this shared challenge, countries must collaborate more closely to develop stronger, more coordinated solutions.

Recognizing the transnational nature of crime, the IDB’s Alliance for Security, Justice, and Development seeks to unite governments, civil society, and private-sector actors. This alliance not only aims to strengthen institutions and enhance cooperation but also supports public policies and mobilizes resources to implement evidence-based solutions that effectively combat organized crime and violence.

Regional collaboration is crucial for disrupting the sophisticated, interconnected networks of organized crime that undermine the rule of law and economic stability. By fostering unified efforts, institutions like the IMF and IDB alongside governments and civil society, have a critical role to play in this effort.

With people’s lives on the line, the true impact of these efforts must be felt on the ground—by creating safer streets, restoring hope in communities, and offering individuals a real chance to thrive economically in a future free from violence.

Ilan Goldfajn was elected president of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) on November 20, 2022, and took office on December 19, 2022. He previously served as director of the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2022, where he supported countries in implementing IMF programs and contributed to climate change policy dialogue. Earlier, he was an economist at the IMF from 1996 to 1999.

Rodrigo Valdés, a national of Chile, is director of the Western Hemisphere Department since May 2023. Prior to this, Rodrigo was a professor of economics in the School of Government at the Catholic University of Chile. He also held the position of Chile’s Minister of Finance from 2015 to 2017. At the IMF, he also was a deputy director of the IMF European and WHD departments.

Source: IMF Blog

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View of Aleppo, December 2024, a city in Syria, which serves as the capital of the Aleppo Governorate, the most populous governorate of Syria. Credit: UN OCHA

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 12 2024 (IPS)

When some of the leaders in the Middle East and Asia are dethroned and driven into exile, the cynics jokingly ask: Is he politically dead or is he dead and buried?

The distinction between the two seems significant because the fluctuating political fortunes of some leaders– and their will to survive against heavy odds– have always defied Western logic.

In a bygone era, two of the authoritarian Middle Eastern leaders —Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Muammar el-Gaddafi—were hunted down before being executed.

Saddam was sentenced to death by hanging after being convicted of crimes against humanity by an Iraqi Special Tribunal while Gaddafi was severely beaten up by rebel forces before being shot to death.

Still, some Arab rulers who were deposed but survived included Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia in 2011, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in 2011, and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen in 2012.

But there was one rare exception—in Asia.

Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was driven into exile—first, seeking refuge in the Maldives, then in Singapore and finally in Thailand. When he ran out of safe havens, or so the story goes, he returned to his home country –but not to his lost presidency.

In Asia, there were several other political leaders who were ousted from power and went into exile, including Nawaz Sharif, Pervez Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan, Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan, Yingluck Shinawatra of Thailand and most recently Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh.

When the Taliban captured power back in 1996, one of its first political acts was to hang the Afghan President Mohammed Najibullah in Ariana Square in Kabul.

And, when it assumed power a second time, it ousted the US-backed government of Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank official, armed with a doctorate in anthropology from one of the most prestigious Ivy League educational institutions in the US: Columbia University.

In a Facebook posting, Ghani said he fled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) seeking safe haven because he “was going to be hanged” by the Taliban.

If that did happen, the Taliban would have earned the dubious distinction of being the only government in the world to hang two presidents. But mercifully, it did not.

Last week, as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad lost his battle for survival against a 14-year-old civil war in his country, he went into exile in Russia, one of his strongest political and military allies.

At a press conference December 10, UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk said: “We saw (in Syria) a regime driven from power following decades of brutal repression, and after nearly 14 years of relentless conflict.”

Hundreds of thousands of lives were lost during this time, more than 100,000 people disappeared, and some 14 million were driven from their homes, often in the most atrocious circumstances, he said.

“I’ve met many of them over the years, witnessed their despair and trauma as they bore testimony to the most serious human rights violations committed against them, including torture and the use of chemical weapons,” declared Turk.

But Assad, now under Russian protection, is not expected to pay for any of his crimes against humanity.

Recounting his personal experience, Dr James E. Jennings, President of Conscience International and Executive Director of US Academics for Peace, told IPS: “I met Bashar al-Assad only once, at his grand palace in Damascus before the war, as head of a delegation of US Academics for Peace. We thought that young Bashar, Western educated and impeccably mannered, might lead Syria away from his father’s cruel repression.”

Assad, like Israel’s Netanyahu, already under indictment by the ICC, is responsible for the conduct of the war and could reasonably be tried for crimes against humanity. That would certainly serve the interests of justice, and might help restrain some of the last half-century of unending bloodshed across the Middle East, he pointed out.

But the reality is that international institutions, largely invented after WW II, have very little capability to implement judgments even if an individual is found guilty. Under the prevailing system of national governments, there is a certain amount of impunity for the head of a government acting for “reasons of state,” said Dr Jennings.

The rebels have no such protection until they become a government. The coalition from Idlib now in control in Damascus is headed by Islamists. At this point, by no stretch of imagination can the Ba’ath Party and Assad himself regain power. Russia, where Assad has fled for refuge, is unlikely to surrender him in any case, he said.

Stephen Zunes, Professor of Politics and Director of Middle Eastern Studies, University of San Francisco, told IPS it would certainly appear that Assad and other top Syrian officials would be liable for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Part of the delay, he said, has been the difficulty in accessing the necessary evidence, but that should be a lot easier now.

“There were hardly any real battles in those final days. Without Hezbollah ground support or Russian air support, Assad had to rely on unwilling conscripts who were not ready to fight and die to keep him in power”.

This was not a military defeat. It was a political collapse. A government is only as strong as its people’s willingness to recognize its legitimacy, said Zunes.

Asked whether Assad should be held accountable for his crimes, UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said: “I think the violations of human rights in Syria have been well documented by various independent commissions. Anyone involved in the commissioning of these violations needs to be held to account, without a doubt.”

In a statement released December 10, Human Rights Watch said: Assad’s government committed countless atrocities, crimes against humanity, and other abuses during his 24-year presidency.

These include widespread and systematic arbitrary arrests, torture, enforced disappearances and deaths in detention, use of chemical weapons, starvation as a weapon of war, and indiscriminate and deliberate attacks against civilians and civilian objects. 

Non-state armed groups operating in Syria, including Hay’et Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and factions of the Syrian National Army that launched the offensive on November 27, are also responsible for human rights abuses and war crimes.

Lama Fakih, Middle East director at Human Rights Watch said: “The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government offers Syrians an unprecedented opportunity to chart a new future built on justice, accountability, and respect for human rights.”

For Syrians scattered across the globe, the dream of accountability for years of crimes and brutality is closer to becoming a reality. Whoever emerges as Syria’s new leadership should make a full and determined break from the repression and impunity of the past and establish a system that respects the human rights and dignity of all Syrians regardless of background or political views, Fakih said

“They should swiftly move to preserve and protect evidence of crimes and abuses by the former government and ensure fair, impartial justice going forward. Armed opposition groups should send a strong and unequivocal message to factions and fighters that unlawful attacks, including those targeting individuals based on perceived ties to the former government, will not be tolerated.

They should commit to ensuring the humane treatment of all individuals, including former government officials and soldiers, affiliated fighters, and loyalists.”

Elaborating further, Dr Jennings said the accusations against Assad are well-deserved, but the rebels are also to blame. Where were all the cries of outrage when the war in Syria was taking its long and incredibly bloody toll month after month, year after year, for almost 14 years?

Where and when will the proxy governments that supplied arms, money, and fighters for this hellish war be held to account? Should not the sponsors of the war be charged with war crimes too? he asked.

“Who funded the war? Russia, Turkey, and Iran. Who has been bombing sites in Syria with impunity for years? The US and Israel. Who is burdened with endless, hopeless tides of refugees? Lebanon, Turkey, Greece, Jordan, and the European Union. Why have they not done more to assist the IDPs and refugees, of which there were a combined 13.2 million?”

One answer is that since it was a proxy war to begin with, with many countries and interests playing out on the battlefield, none of the participants really wanted it to end—or at least were content to let it continue, he argued.

“That Bashar ordered–or allowed—the campaign of repression against the protestors in 2011—a part of the “Arab Spring” protests at the beginning of the war, was in itself unforgivable. Killing and torturing young people for writing graffiti, imprisoning people by the thousands and throwing away the key is so inhumane that it cannot be whitewashed, and scarcely imagined”.

To borrow a phrase from earlier Middle Eastern diplomacy, Assad “Never missed an opportunity to miss an opportunity.” Repeatedly in the past 25 years he was urged to change course, to envision a different outcome than simply clinging to power for its own sake. He could not do it—or he chose not to—which amounts to the same thing, declared Dr Jennings.

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Human activity has degraded over 70% of Earth’s land, with 24 billion tonnes of fertile soil lost annually. It takes up to 1,000 years to produce just 2-3 cm of soil. Credit: Busani Bafana/IPS

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Dec 11 2024 (IPS)

The available data is self-explanatory: business-prompted human activities have already altered over 70% of the Earth’s lands, with 24 billion tonnes of fertile soil lost due to industrial agriculture, the excessive use of chemicals, overgrazing, deforestation, pollution and other major threats.

Human-caused extreme weather events, such as heavy rains followed by drought, accelerate soil degradation, while deforestation and overgrazing reduce soil quality by compacting it and depleting essential nutrients.

Much so that the United Nations system has identified that more than 40% of all fertile soils are already degraded.

This consequence is alarming enough if you learn that “it can take up to 1.000 years to produce just 2-3 cm of soil,” as explained by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), and other specialised bodies like the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

 

The case of Africa

In the specific case of Africa, which is home to 1.3 billion people, this vast continent is responsable for barely 2-3% of global warming, yet falls prey to over 80% of its devastating consequences.

Add to this that African fertile soils are highly ambitioned by the international commercial business of massive food production and trade, which are generated through land grabbing, which leads to loss of fertility and water scarcity.

Consequently, Africa is usually associated with severe droughts, land degradation, hunger and famine, let alone the exploitation of its mineral resources, and dozens of armed conflicts.

 

The five major threats:

According to the UN, these are the five biggest causes and effects of the human-made disastrous situation:

 

1. Drought

Over one-third of the world’s population lives in water-scarce regions, according to the UNCCD’s Global Land Outlook report.

As land degrades, soil loses its ability to retain water, leading to vegetation loss and creating a vicious cycle of drought and erosion.

“This issue, exacerbated by climate change, is particularly severe in Sub-Saharan Africa, contributing to food insecurity and famine.”

Add to this that African fertile soils are highly ambitioned by the international commercial business of massive food production and trade, generated through land grabbing.

 

2. Land degradation

Human activity has altered more than 70% of the Earth’s land, causing widespread degradation of forests, peatlands, and grasslands to name a few ecosystems. This diminishes soil fertility, reduces crop yields and threatens food security.

 

3. Industrial farming

While industrial farming produces large volumes of food, it significantly harms soil health.

The use of heavy machinery, tilling, monocropping, and excessive pesticide and fertilizer use degrades soil quality, pollutes water sources and contributes to biodiversity loss.

Industrial agriculture also accounts for about 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

 

4. Chemicals and pollution

Soil pollution, often invisible, harms plant, animal and human health. Industrial processes, mining, poor waste management and unsustainable farming practices introduce chemicals, like synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, and heavy metals, into the soil.

Excessive fertilizer use disrupts nutrient balance, while pesticides harm beneficial soil organisms, like earthworms and fungi. Heavy metals, like lead and mercury, accumulate in the soil, interfering with microbial activity and plant nutrient uptake.

 

5. Diet and nutrition

The world’s current diet and nutritional choices significantly affect soil health through the agricultural practices used to produce food. Diets reliant on staple crops, like wheat, corn and rice, often promote intensive monoculture farming.

This practice depletes soil nutrients, reduces organic matter, and leads to compaction and erosion.

Similarly, diets high in animal products, particularly beef, increase land use for grazing and feed crops. Overgrazing by livestock exacerbates soil compaction and erosion.

With these facts in hand, no wonder that the UN declared the years 2021 through 2030  the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

 

Any way out?

There are too many factors to justify the pressing need to act.

“Our planet’s survival depends on the precious link with soil. Over 95 percent of our food comes from soils. Besides, they supply 15 of the 18 naturally occurring chemical elements essential to plants,” the UN reminds.

The world body also reminds that there are solutions through feasible sustainable soil management practices, such as minimum tillage, crop rotation, organic matter addition, and cover cropping, improve soil health, reduce erosion and pollution, and enhance water infiltration and storage.

These practices also preserve soil biodiversity, improve fertility, and contribute to carbon sequestration, playing a crucial role in the fight against climate change.

Up to 58% more food could be produced through sustainable soil management, the UN unveils, and warns that agricultural production will have to increase by 60% to meet the global food demand in 2050.

 

The obscene greed…

Despite all the above, and no matter how many summits are held, greed standing behind such depletion remains unaltered.

In fact, giant industrial corporations – mostly originating in Western countries – seem to have no limits in their practices of making more and more profits, at any cost, including poisoning human, fauna and flora, in short, the whole natural system.

Much so that “big business’ windfall profits rocket to “obscene” $1 trillion a year amid cost-of-living crisis,” according to Oxfam, a global movement of people who are fighting inequality to end poverty and injustice, and ActionAid, a global federation working for a world free from poverty and injustice.

“722 mega-corporations raked in $1 trillion a year in windfall profits each year for the past two years amid soaring prices and interest rates, while billions of people are having to cut back or go hungry,” unveil the two big civil society coalitions.

 

Only business matters?

A small tax on just seven of the world’s biggest oil and gas companies could grow the UN Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage by more than 2000%, as shown in an analysis by environmental organisations Greenpeace International and Stamp Out Poverty.

“Taxing ExxonMobil’s 2023 extraction could pay for half the cost of Hurricane Beryl, which ravaged large parts of the Caribbean, Mexico and the USA…

… Taxing Shell’s 2023 extraction could cover much of Typhoon Carina’s damages, one of the worst that the Philippines experienced this year. Taxing TotalEnergies’ 2023 extraction could cover over 30 times Kenya’s 2024 floods.”

What appears to matter most is that the business of global trade is poised to hit a record 33 trillion USD in 2024, marking a 1 trillion USD increase over 2023, according to the UN trade and development body (UNCTAD)’s Global Trade Update.