Africa

The BBC hears how roofs flew off homes as people sheltered inside in the cyclone-hit French territory.

The BBC hears how roofs flew off homes as people sheltered inside in the cyclone-hit French territory.

With one year to go until the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations kicks off, what can we expect when the finals return to Morocco?

Credit: Daniel Ceng/Anadolu via Getty Images

By Andrew Firmin
LONDON, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Democracy is alive and well in South Korea. When President Yoon Suk Yeol tried to impose martial law, the public and parliamentarians united to defend it. Now Yoon must face justice for his power grab.

President under pressure

Yoon narrowly won the presidency in an incredibly tight contest in March 2022, beating rival candidate Lee Jae-myung by a 0.73 per cent margin. That marked a political comeback for one of South Korea’s two main political parties, the rebranded centre-right People Power Party, and a defeat for the other, the more progressive Democratic Party.

In a divisive campaign, Yoon capitalised on and helped inflame a backlash among many young men against the country’s emerging feminist movement.

South Korea had a MeToo moment in 2018, as women started to speak out following high-profile sexual harassment revelations. South Korea is one of the worst performing members on gender equality of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development: it ranks third lowest for women’s political representation and last for its gender pay gap.

Some modest steps forward in women’s rights brought a disproportionate backlash. Groups styling themselves as defending men’s rights sprang up, their members claiming they were discriminated against in the job market. Yoon played squarely to this crowd, pledging to abolish the gender equality ministry. Exit polls showed that over half of young male voters backed him.

Human rights conditions then worsened under Yoon’s rule. His administration was responsible for an array of civic space restrictions. These included harassment and criminalisation of journalists, raids on trade union offices and arrests of their leaders, and protest bans. Media freedoms deteriorated, with lawsuits and criminal defamation laws having a chilling effect.

But the balance of power shifted after the 2024 parliamentary election, when the People Power Party suffered a heavy defeat. Although the Democratic Party and its allies fell short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach Yoon, the result left him a lame-duck president. The opposition-dominated parliament blocked key budget proposals and filed 22 impeachment motions against government officials.

Yoon’s popularity plummeted amid ongoing economic woes and allegations of corruption – sadly nothing new for a South Korean leader. The First Lady, Kim Keon Hee, was accused of accepting a Dior bag as a gift and of manipulating stock prices. It seems clear that Yoon, backed into a corner, lashed out and took an incredible gamble – one that South Korean people didn’t accept.

Yoon’s decision

Yoon made his extraordinary announcement on state TV on the evening of 3 December. Shamefully, he claimed the move was necessary to combat ‘pro-North Korean anti-state forces’, smearing those trying to hold him to account as supporters of the totalitarian regime across the border. Yoon ordered the army to arrest key political figures, including the leader of his party, Han Dong Hoon, Democratic Party leader Lee and National Assembly Speaker Woo Won Shik.

The declaration of martial law gives the South Korean president sweeping powers. The military can arrest, detain and punish people without a warrant, the media are placed under strict controls, all political activity is suspended and protests are widely banned.

The problem was that Yoon had clearly exceeded his powers and acted unconstitutionally. Martial law can only be declared when there are extraordinary threats to the nation’s survival, such as invasion or armed rebellion. A series of political disputes that put the president under uncomfortable scrutiny clearly didn’t fit the bill. And the National Assembly was supposed to remain in session, but Yoon tried to shut it down, deploying armed forces to try to stop representatives gathering to vote.

But Yoon hadn’t reckoned with many people’s determination not to return to the dark days of dictatorship before multiparty democracy was established in 1987. People also had recent experience of forcing out an evidently corrupt president. In the Candlelight Revolution of 2016 and 2017, mass weekly protests built pressure on President Park Guen-hye, who was impeached, removed from office and jailed for corruption and abuse of power.

People massed outside the National Assembly in protest. As the army blocked the building’s main gates, politicians climbed over the fences. Protesters and parliamentary staff faced off against heavily armed troops with fire extinguishers, forming a chain around the building so lawmakers could vote. Some 190 made it in, and they unanimously repealed Yoon’s decision.

Time for justice

Now Yoon must face justice. Protesters will continue to urge him to quit, and a criminal investigation into the decision to declare martial law has been launched.

The first attempt to impeach Yoon was thwarted by political manoeuvring. People Power politicians walked out to prevent a vote on 7 December, apparently hoping Yoon would resign instead. But he showed no sign of stepping down, and a second vote on 14 December decisively backed impeachment, with 12 People Power Party members supporting the move. The vote was greeted with scenes of jubilation from the tens of thousands of protesters massed in freezing conditions outside the National Assembly.

Yoon is now suspended, with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo the interim president. The Constitutional Court has six months to hold an impeachment process. Polls show most South Koreans back impeachment, although Yoon still claims his move was necessary.

Democracy defended

South Korea’s representative democracy, like most, has its flaws. People may not always be happy with election results. Presidents may find it hard to work with a parliament that opposes them. But imperfect though it may be, South Koreans have shown they value their democracy and will defend it from the threat of authoritarian rule – and can be expected to keep mobilising if Yoon evades justice.

Thankfully, Yoon’s attacks on civic space hadn’t got to the stage where civil society’s ability to mobilise and people’s capacity to defend democracy had been broken down. Recent events and South Korea’s uncertain future make it all the more important that the civic space restrictions imposed by Yoon’s administration are reversed as quickly as possible. To defend against backsliding and deepen democracy, it’s vital to expand civic space and invest in civil society.

Andrew Firmin is CIVICUS Editor-in-Chief, co-director and writer for CIVICUS Lens and co-author of the State of Civil Society Report.

 

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A young girl trying to cross a flooded road in Bangladesh following the wake of Cyclone Remal. Bangladesh is one of the world’s most climate-sensitive nations and is expected to be significantly impacted by rising global temperatures. Credit: UNICEF/Farhana Satu

By Oritro Karim
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that 2024 is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history, surpassing 2023. This can be attributed to heightened reliance on fossil fuels and the reluctance of industries worldwide to pivot to green energy practices. The rapid acceleration of global temperatures has alarmed scientists, with many expressing concern over the environmental, economic, and social implications of the worsening climate crisis.

In light of this fact, ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, UN Secretary-General António Guterres remarked: “Humanity’s torching the planet and paying the price.”

In addition to being the hottest year, 2024 is also the first year in recorded history to have an average temperature of over 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. According to data from the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the average temperature for 2024 is expected to be 1.60 C, marking a significant jump from last year’s average of 1.48 C.

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that has been signed by 196 countries at the UN. The objective of this agreement is to reduce carbon emissions by 43 percent by 2030 and mitigate the climate crisis. Samantha Burgess, the deputy-director of C3S) confirmed that the rising temperatures do not make the Paris Agreement implausible but rather, makes the climate crisis much more urgent of an issue.

According to Oxford Net Zero, a platform of researchers hosted by the University of Oxford, in order to have a reasonable chance of bringing global temperatures back to 1.5 C, fossil fuel emissions must fall by 43 percent. Major corporations and governments around the world have announced plans to reduce carbon emissions to achieve these goals.

Although industries around the world have slowly begun to adopt healthier fossil fuel consumption habits and alternative sources of energy, global consumption of coal has nearly doubled in the past three decades. On December 18, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a comprehensive report titled Coal 2024, that analyzed global consumption of coal in the 2020s and provided a forecast of coal use for the next three years.

The report states that in 2023, the global coal demand reached a record 8,687 metric tons, marking a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase. The global demand for coal is expected to have grown by 1 percent in 2024. The increased demand for coal can be attributed to the relatively low supply of hydropower.

China is ranked as the world’s biggest consumer of coal, accounting for up to 56 percent of 2023’s global coal consumption, equivalent to 4,833 metric tons of coal. It is estimated that in 2024, Chinese coal consumption has increased by 1.1 percent, or an additional 56 metric tons.

Approximately 63 percent of China’s coal consumption is used to fuel the nation’s power sector. Despite a measured global increase in renewable energy use, China’s generation of electricity has declined in recent years.

According to the IEA, fixing the world’s over-reliance on coal consumption begins with China. “Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term,” said IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori.

Scientists and economists have predicted that the acceleration of the climate crisis will have severe environmental and economic impacts going forward. According to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, increased temperatures could cost the global economy approximately 38 trillion dollars in damages. Maximilian Kotz, a researcher at the institute, states that much of these losses can be attributed to decreased agricultural yields and labor productivity, as well as damage to climate-sensitive infrastructures.

2024 has seen a host of climate-driven natural disasters that have devastated communities. Extreme weather, such as cyclones, monsoons, wildfires, heatwaves, hurricanes, and rising sea levels, continue to endanger the lives of millions of people. According to estimates from the UN, approximately 305 million people around the world will be in dire need of humanitarian assistance for support due to worsening natural disasters.

Other environmental impacts of climate change include deforestation, biodiversity loss, ocean acidification, water cycle disruptions, and impacts on agricultural outputs, all of which have disastrous consequences for life on Earth. If global temperatures and carbon emissions are not reduced by 2030, these consequences could significantly increase in severity.

Scientists have warned that it is critical for global temperatures to not exceed 2 C. The world would experience widespread species loss, including several species critical for the sustenance of human life, including fish and many species of plants. Alice C. Hill, a Council of Foreign Relations (CFR) senior fellow for energy and the environment, stated, “We’re headed toward disaster if we can’t get our warming in check and we need to do this very quickly.”

Another climate researcher at Potsdam, Anders Levermann, predicts that economic and environmental impacts will be far more severe for developing countries than for major commercial powerhouses such as the United States and China. “We find damages almost everywhere, but countries in the tropics will suffer the most because they are already warmer,” said Levermann.

Furthermore, the countries that are the least responsible for climate change (developing nations) are expected to suffer the greatest economic and environmental impacts as they have the fewest resources “to adapt to its impacts.”

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Yasmine Sherif with children at a school in Ethiopia

By Yasmine Sherif
NEW YORK, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As 2024 comes to a close, I dare to say that this has been an especially gruesome year for millions upon millions of young children, their parents and their teachers. The world has witnessed one horrific crisis of cruelty, dispossession and human suffering after another.

Ukraine has entered its worst winter, suffering a brutal war with 65% of its energy supplies destroyed. While the West Bank is increasingly under attack, Gaza is still under bombardment, 1 million Palestinians lack shelter in the cold and, as the Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator for OCHA, Tom Fletcher, stated, “Gaza is apocalyptic right now.”

Meanwhile, the gruesome internal armed conflict in Sudan rages on, having caused over 11 million internally displaced and over 3 million refugees in neighboring countries. Each carries the yoke of profound human suffering. From Lebanon, Yemen and the Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh to the Sahel and across sub-Saharan Africa, millions of children have very little hope left for a future.

Girls in Afghanistan beyond grade 6 remain shackled to their homes, banned from continuing their learning. Countless children have to live with the life-long consequences of surviving rape and brutal sexual violence – sometimes as mere babies – in armed conflicts in the DRC, North-East Nigeria and beyond. In the Sahel, children have to flee their villages on fire with nothing more than their last piece of cloth on their frail bodies. In Latin America, Venezuelan refugee children continue to struggle in exile, facing dangers in every corner, from trafficking and gangs, to missing out on the opportunity of an education and a future.

These are real examples of some of the 44 countries and contexts in which ECW invests financial resources towards a holistic quality education, safe learning environments and school meals.

The question is: are we all doing enough?

As many will know, Education Cannot Wait is a global platform in the UN system, hosted by UNICEF. It is made up of our High-Level Steering Group, our Executive Committee and our Secretariat, along with strategic public and private donor partners, Ministers of Education and numerous admirable and hard-working UN and civil society partners, as well as communities.

ECW is able to deliver with speed because it is a catalyst that brings together partners who operate with the same level of commitment, energy and determination. We are also able to deliver with depth and quality because we share the same vision of a child-centered approach and learning outcomes.

In the midst of this very dark year, Education Cannot Wat delivered on its mission, making more than US$228 million in investments, including US$44 million in First Emergency Responses, US$176 million in Multi-Year Resilience Programmes and US$8 million in Acceleration Facility grants – the latter for piloting innovative approaches.

Our funding gap was further closed as we reached nearly US$1 billion in financial resources for our 2023-2026 Strategic Plan. But more resources are urgently needed if we are to cater to the actual needs and reach, at minimum, 20 million children (pre-school, primary and secondary) and their teachers by the end of this strategic period.

With an additional US$570 million, we can completely close this gap. It is possible. When annual military expenditures worldwide stand at US$2.4 trillion, there is no justification whatsoever to fail in investing a minimum of US$570 million for Education Cannot Wait to support lifesaving and life-sustaining education for children enduring the brunt of man-made and climate crises; as well as to invest substantive financial resources to our sister-funds, such as the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) and the International Finance Facility for Education (IFFEd).

As our ongoing analysis and research at Education Cannot Wait indicates, the number of children in emergencies and protracted crises – who are denied or deprived an education – is getting closer to a quarter of a billion children and adolescents. We can prevent this.

While we are all trying to do something, we can and must do so much more. It is possible.

This leads me to the founder and outgoing High-Level Steering Group Chair of Education Cannot Wait, The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown, the UN Special Envoy for Global Education. He had a vision that led to the creation of Education Cannot Wait. Joined by strategic partners in governments, the UN and civil society, he pulled through its establishment at the World Humanitarian Summit.

In just a few years, this vision has turned into over 11 million children, adolescents and teachers benefitting from a quality education in the harshest circumstances around the globe.

In the immortal words of Viktor Frankl: “The world is in a bad state, but everything will become still worse unless each of us does his [and her] best.”

The Rt. Hon. Gordon Brown did his best and has made an incredible difference transforming millions of lives and generations to come.

Let his legacy inspire us all.

With this, on behalf of the whole Education Cannot Wait family, I wish you Happy Holidays. May 2025 be a brighter year.

Yasmine Sherif is Executive Director of Education Cannot Wait

IPS UN Bureau

 

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The IOM estimates that one billion people live without legal identity, limiting their access to vital services and restricting their mobility. Credit: Shutterstock

By Baher Kamal
MADRID, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Perhaps demographers would consider designing a new classification system to separate from their estimates of the world’s total population –eight billion plus– the billion humans who live without legal identity and, thus, are deprived from the most basic rights.

The one billion figure seems to fall short if you consider that there are at least 150 million unregistered births.

 

The Facts

The United Nations specialised body: the International Organization for Migration (IOM) informs that “one in eight people in the world do not have legal identity and cannot have access to services.”

Today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration
Jens Godtfredsen

Specifically, the IOM reveals that “an estimated one billion people are living without legal identity and remain invisible to states, limiting their access to services and restricting their mobility, pushing them to undertake longer, more perilous, irregular routes.”

In view of this finding, the IOM brought together government representatives from Europe, Africa, Middle East and Central America for the Legal Identity and Rights-Based Return Management Conference at the UN City in Copenhagen.

The conference, held at the end of last October, convened government officials from countries of origin and destination and served to promote cross-regional exchanges on legal identity as a core enabler of safer and regular migration.

 

No Human Rights for Them

On this, Jens Godtfredsen, Ambassador for Migration, Return and Readmission at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark, said during the conference that “today, one billion people do not have proof of legal identity hampering their access to social services, taxes, voting, a bank account, and driving irregular migration.”

That’s why it’s critical to come together to discuss concrete solutions to migration challenges, such as the global identity gap, by adopting a whole of government approach, stressed the Danish Government’s representative.

During this international conference, the Governments recognised that readmission processes for migrants are often “hindered by obstacles that can be eliminated or reduced by strengthening a state’s legal identity capacity, consular support, and collaboration among relevant government agencies.”

 

A Persistent Crisis

Despite these discussions, the grim reality persists. Rather, it is one continuous rise if you take the other dramatic fate of the millions of babies and children that are also ‘inexistente’

A 10 December 2024 report from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reveals significant progress in ending the problem of the “invisible” millions of babies each year who go unregistered.

Nearly eight in 10 children under five were successfully registered at birth in the last five years.

However, the report, The Right Start in Life: Global Levels and Trends in Birth Registration, also highlights a troubling reality: 150 million children under five still go unregistered, meaning they don’t officially exist as far as government systems.

According to UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell, it is crucial that we provide “stronger efforts to ensure that every child, everywhere, is registered at birth.”

 

Beyond Formality: Why Birth Registration Matters

Birth registration is more than a legal formality – it is the gateway to rights and protections. It ensures a child’s legal identity, prevents statelessness, and facilitates access to essential services like healthcare, education, and social protection.

“Yet over 50 million children with registered births still lack birth certificates, a critical document for proving registration and securing nationality.”

 

Africa leads the disparities

Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, and Central and Southern Asia lead the way with less than 30 percent of unregistered births.

Lagging is Sub-Saharan Africa home to half of the world’s unregistered children.

Within this region, the disparities are stark: Southern Africa reaches 88 per cent of registrations while Eastern and Middle Africa remain behind at just 41 per cent.

“Rapid population growth in the region will exacerbate the challenge, with projections suggesting over 100 million unregistered children by 2030 if current trends persist.”

 

Barriers to Registration

Families face numerous barriers to registration, UNICEF explains.

They often mention long distances and multiple visits to registration facilities, a lack of awareness about the process and discrimination based on gender, ethnicity, or religion. High costs also cause recurrent issues.

 

Stateless and Displaced: The Unseen Millions

Add to all the above, the millions of statelessness who are forced to flee to nowhere as a consequence of the ongoing armed conflicts taking place in some of the most impoverished countries as it is the case of DR. Congo, Sudan, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Chad, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Yemen, Haiti, Central America…

Let alone Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria.

Please do not forget the millions of victims of the climate carnage who are forced to be displaced across borders they most probably know nothing about, and as such pariahs are not formally recognised by states.

Still talking about human rights, democracy, equality…?

Maria Aparecida dos Anjos points to where the stream, now reduced to a trickle of water, reaches when flooded in the community of Santa Helena do Inglês, one of the riverside towns along the Rio Negro, a large tributary of the Amazon, in Brazil

By Mario Osava
MANAUS, Brazil, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The flow of the igarapé always dropped for three months every year, but now it has been dry for two years in a row, complains Maria Aparecida dos Anjos, looking at the trickle of water that when flooded reaches the stilts of her wooden house, 50 metres away and on a slope of more than 10 metres high.

The stream, known as igarapé to the riverside dwellers, flows into the Negro river, the great northern tributary of the Amazon, whose flow has dropped by more than 15 metres compared to the rainy season, affecting the essential river transport and the fish-based diet of the local population.

The unprecedented drought temporarily interrupted the growing bonanza of the 30 families of the Santa Helena do Inglês community since they received electricity from the government’s Light for All programme in 2012, reinforced in 2020 by solar energy provided by the non-governmental  Sustainable Amazon Foundation (FAS).“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn't work”: Nelson Brito de Mendonça.

The Vista Rio Negro community lodge, with eight rooms, has had to suspend its activities since August this year because of the drought. Ecotourism is an important source of income for the community near Anavilhanas, an attractive river archipelago.

Half of the lodge’s income is share among the community, while the rest goes to salaries, expenses and maintenance.

The guests would spread the word on “the suffering to get to the lodge”, having to walk hundreds of metres on uneven ground and mud, given the distance from the riverbank, and “no one would come anymore”, explained Nelson Brito de Mendonça, 48 and president of the community for the last 22 years, when IPS visited the place.

Berth at the Santa Helena do Inglês lodge, where the Negro River flows during the rainy season in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Communities only accessible by river

Santa Helena is only accessible by river. It takes an hour and a half by speedboat to travel the 64-kilometre distance between the community and Manaus, the Amazonian capital of 2.2 million people. The “Englishman’s” addition comes from a British couple who lived there in the past.

“The inn used to receive occasional guests during the dry period, but it only closed completely in 2023 and 2004,” the two years of severe drought, said Keith-Ivan Oliveira, 54 and manager of the establishment, located at the entrance to the community, with a berth where the water comes in, but now hundreds of metres from the river.

He hopes to reopen the inn in January. For that “the water has to rise a lot, otherwise the big boats can’t reach it,” because of the risk of getting stuck on the sandbanks, he said.

Ecotourism, also practised by several local families in their small individual dwellings, was only made viable by electricity, especially from solar energy, which complemented the energy transmitted by cables, which was insufficient and frequently interrupted by trees blown down by rain and winds.

Air conditioning, indispensable for tourist comfort in the Amazonian heat, takes a lot of energy.

The Pousada Vista Rio de Negro, opened in 2014 as a source of income for the Santa Helena do Inglês community, home to 30 families of fisherpeople, cassava farmers and artisans in the Brazilian Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

No power, no water, no food

“Other communities suffer water shortages, but we don’t because we have two sources of energy, the cable network and solar power. If there is no electricity, there is no water, which is then pumped,” Oliveira said.

Santa Helena uses water from an 86-metre deep well that reaches three elevated reservoirs in the highest part of the community. From there, the water drains by gravity to the consumption premises.

For Dos Anjos, who is 59 and heads a typical local family with eight children and six grandchildren, most of them living in Santa Helena, electricity means the comfort of having a refrigerator and not having to keep meat in salt, as well as fans to keep out the heat, television and other electrical appliances.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, 39, who also has eight children, benefits doubly. She is a cook at the inn, which earns her about 700 reais (US$120) a month when it is open, and she prepares ready-made food at home that she sells in the community. The refrigerator and electric oven are indispensable to her.

Keith-Ivan Oliveira, manager of the Pousada Vista Rio Negro, at the entrance of the ice factory under construction, which will have its own solar energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

She highlights the educational improvement for the children. “The school now has air conditioning, which is turned on when it is very hot, a benefit for everyone,” she said.

The electricity also favoured the internet connection that allows for virtual classes, which is necessary since the local school only covers the first five years of Brazilian primary education.

Elizabeth Ferreira da Silva, 16, a granddaughter of Dos Anjos, is completing her ninth and final year of primary school online. The knowledge she has accumulated on the web has facilitated the work she does with the inn’s communications, which is essential in attracting tourists from far away, including foreigners.

The community actually tried solar energy before, in 2011, but it was a very small plant that was soon rendered useless by lightning. Now it has a modern plant with 132 panels and 54 lithium batteries, installed by UCB Power, a company specialising in energy storage, which is sharing the project with FAS.

The solar panels of the plant that will supply the ice factory in the Amazonian community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in the Brazilian state of Amazonas. It will produce three tonnes per day. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

Ice empowers fishing

In addition, Santa Helena already has another plant, with 84 panels, for the operation of an ice factory that is expected to be launched in a few months, with a capacity of three tonnes per day.

This is another project promoted by the FAS and vital to enhance the income of the Amazonian coastal villages, fisherpeople by nature.

“With our ice, we will no longer have to buy it in Manaus, to preserve the fish and sell it at a better price,” Mendonça celebrated. The inhabitants often lose their fish for lack of ice and “already had to give it for free to the trading companies,” he said.

“Energy is life, or perhaps the river is life, but without energy it doesn’t work,” he said, admitting that the ice factory only came about because the community managed to get help for the second solar plant.

The network of electricity distribution cables reached the Brazilian Amazonian community of Santa Helena in 2012, but with insufficient power and frequent interruptions. Solar plants installed later overcame the shortfall, but encourage activities that increase demand and require more energy. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

The river dwellers are gaining independence as fisherpeople and reducing their conservation and transport costs, which results in higher profits and better productivity and quality of the fish, Oliveira summarised.

This process points to the beginning of transformations in Santa Helena and the other 18 communities of the Rio Negro Sustainable Development Reserve (RDS), an environmental conservation area of 103,086 hectares in which its inhabitants remain, taking advantage of their natural resources but in a sustainable way.

The reserve was created in 2008 after eleven dwellers were arrested for illegal logging and sparked a movement for traditional peoples’ rights, sources of income and dignified livelihoods.

Negotiations with the Amazonas state authorities in the capital Manaus resulted in the creation of the RDS. As a result, the inhabitants of the reserve gained the exclusive right to fish in the local section of the Negro River and the departure of the companies that carried out industrial and predatory fishing.

The riverside dwellers became fisherpeople on a commercial scale and today have 13 boats, almost all of them with a capacity of five tons of fish. The ice factory has taken activity to a new level, even if the drought temporarily threatens the activity.

Timber extraction is limited to personal use and sustainably managed forests. Fishing, ecotourism and the cultivation of cassava (manioc), from which flour is made in the various “flour houses”, are the main sources of income.

Lucilene Ferreira de Oliveira, the inn’s cook, also produces meals for sale at her home, an activity that requires sufficient energy for her refrigerators and electric oven, in the small community of Santa Helena do Inglês, in Brazil’s northeastern Amazon. Credit: Mario Osava / IPS

An example

This is a model to be replicated in the many Amazonian riverside communities, according to Valcleia dos Santos Lima, manager of sustainable community development at FAS.

The community of Bauana, in the municipality of Carauari, in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon, has already installed a plant with 80 photovoltaic panels and 32 batteries. In this case, the idea was to launch “a productive chain of factories that benefit from andiroba and murumuru oil,” this graduate in public policy management told IPS.

These are two Amazonian species, respectively a tree and a palm tree (Carapa guianensis and astrocaryum murumuru) whose fruits produce oils for medicinal and cosmetic use.

Energy is key for Amazonians to thrive, to add value to bio-economy products and to promote community-based tourism. In addition, almost one million inhabitants of the Amazon do not have electricity and 313 of the 582 communities in which the FAS operates only have it for four hours a day, Lima recalled.

“In this context, it is important that renewable energy can meet social demands as well as the demands of the economy and employment,” she concluded.

Jonathan Fonati Koffa insists he is innocent after being questioned by police.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres briefs reporters on the situation in Syria. Credit: UN Photo/Eskinder-Debebe

By Naureen Hossain
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

In overthrowing Bashar al-Assad and his regime, Syria reaches the process of re-affirming its sovereignty, a process that the United Nations chief asserts must be led by the Syrian people.

On Thursday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke to reporters outside the Security Council, where he affirmed the UN’s commitment to support Syria during this period of transition. Under the caretaker government, the political process should follow the principles outlined in Security Council resolution 2254, which provides a roadmap for this transition and calls for a ceasefire, the establishment of non-sectarian governance, and free and fair elections to be held within 18 months.

“All communities must be fully integrated into the new Syria,” said Guterres.

The UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson, was in Damascus meeting with the leaders of the factions in Syria, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), where he observed that there was “a lot of hope” among civilians for “the beginning of a new Syria.”

“A new Syria that, in line with Security Council resolution 2254, will adopt a new constitution that will ensure that there is a social contract, a new social contract for all Syrians,” said Pederson.

Pressing issues remain that require urgent action. One such issue is the high number of missing persons in Syria. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in Syria reported registering over 35,000 missing persons cases, with the caveat that this number is likely much higher.

In light of this, the UN General Assembly created the Independent Institution on Missing Persons in Syria. Since its conception in June 2023, this office has been investigating the whereabouts and fates of missing persons in the country and to provide support to their family members.

UN Spokesperson for the Secretary General, Stéphane Dujarric, remarked that the issue of missing persons has been a part of the ongoing dialogue with the caretaker government. “It is such an emotional issue. Such a human issue that it should be at the forefront of everyone’s work,” said Dujarric.

Guterres announced on Thursday that Karla Quintana would be heading the institution, remarking that she and her team must be allowed to carry out their mandate. A human rights expert and legal scholar, Quintana was previously the National Commissioner for the Search of Missing Persons in Mexico from 2019 to 2023. During her tenure, she oversaw over 100,000 cases of disappearances and 70,000 unidentified bodies. She is expected to join the institution soon in Geneva, where their office is based.

The humanitarian response in Syria will also adapt during the “still rapidly shifting” conditions in the wake of the regime change. The UN and its partners have begun the rehabilitation of certain key facilities, such as hospitals and roads, in the more stable areas. Still, over 16 million people require humanitarian support. Even as humanitarian actors respond to pressing needs, issues emerge that present challenges to long-term stability. According to Dujarric, more than 1.3 million people have received food assistance since November 27. Yet, the “rapid devaluation” of Syrian currency has been impacting the availability of food.

“We need immediate humanitarian assistance, but we also need to make sure that Syria can be rebuilt, that we can see economic recovery and that we can hopefully see the beginning where we start the process to end sanctions,” said Pederson.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has called for donors to increase their funding for the humanitarian and recovery response plan. The Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria in 2024 called for USD 4.07 billion in funding, yet this has only been funded at 32 percent. The humanitarian plan for 2025 has yet to be announced.

There are also reports of hostilities in the northeast, even as the security situation is stabilizing in major cities like Damascus and Aleppo. Guterres remarked that ISIL continues to be a present threat in the country and that Israeli airstrikes have been recurring in the weeks since Assad’s departure. These attacks violate Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they must come to an immediate end, he warned.

“This is a decisive moment—a moment of hope and history, but also one of great uncertainty,” he said. “Some will try to exploit the situation for their own narrow ends. But it is the obligation of the international community to stand with the people of Syria who have suffered so much.”

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Benin head coach Gernot Rohr claims it is "dangerous and unsafe" for international football matches to be played in Libya.

A selection of the week's best photos from across the African continent and beyond.

A selection of the week's best photos from across the African continent and beyond.

A piece from Emo de Medeiros’s series Vodunaut in the “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” exhibit in La Conciergerie in Paris, France. The smartphones within the cowry shell-decorated helmets feature videos taken on four different continents. Credit: Megan Fahrney/IPS

By Megan Fahrney
COTONOU, Benin, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

Construction of the new Museum of Modern Art is underway in Cotonou, Benin’s largest city. The museum, along with three others being built throughout the country, are part of the Beninese government’s extensive plan to ramp up the nation’s tourism industry and preserve its culture. It is expected to open at the end of 2026.

A traveling exhibition entitled “Revelation! Contemporary art from Benin” serves as the precursor to the new modern art museum. Originally, the exhibition launched in Cotonou in 2022 under the name “Art of Benin From Yesterday and Today: From Restitution to Revelation.” It then traveled to Morocco, Martinique, and it is now in Paris.

At the heart of the initiatives is the repatriation of 26 pieces of stolen art to Benin from France in 2021. The returned royal artefacts were showcased alongside the contemporary art in the original exhibition in Cotonou, and they have remained in the nation’s reserves since.

The exhibition brings together over one hundred pieces of art by 42 artists from Benin and the Beninese diaspora.

Yassine Lassissi, director of visual arts at the Agency for the Development of the Arts and Culture (ADAC), said the exhibit unites works from both distinguished, well-known Beninese artists and emerging young creators.

The featured pieces represent a range of different forms and artistic mediums, Lassissi said.

“There is really a diversity of techniques,” said Lassissi. “We have paintings, sculptures, installations, multimedia techniques, drawings, and photography.”

Artist Emo de Medeiros showcases two works in the exhibition: a series of fixtures entitled Vodunaut and a short film by the name “Tigritude I.”

De Medeiros said “Tigritude I” was inspired by a quote by Nigerian activist and author Wole Soyinka, who said, “A tiger doesn’t proclaim his tigritude, he pounces.” De Medeiros explores the role of the African diaspora in uniting technology and spirituality through the piece.

“It features an alternative past,” said de Medeiros. “An alternative futurism that is very dystopic with the intervention of futuristic tigers.”

Upon the return of the exhibition to Cotonou from Paris this January, Lassissi said she hopes the artwork can continue to travel to new destinations until the opening of the museum in 2026, including potentially to the United States.

While in Cotonou, the exhibition drew more than 220,000 visitors in just sixty days of opening.

“It was really a historic event,” Lassissi said.

In addition to the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou, Benin is constructing the International Museum of Memory and Slavery in Ouidah, the Museum of the Epic of the Amazons and Kings of Dahomey in Abomey, and the International Museum of Arts and Civilizations of Vodun in Porto-Novo.

The majority of contemporary art pieces from the traveling exhibition will be housed in the Museum of Modern Art in Cotonou. The 26 returned royal artefacts will be displayed in the new museum in Abomey.

The government plans to situate the Museum of Modern Art within an entirely new Cultural and Creative Neighborhood, which would also consist of the Franco-Beninese Institute, coworking spaces, the Art Gallery, the artisanal village, and artists’ residences.

The nation hopes the museums will strengthen its culture and tourism industry, which it projects to be the second pillar of its economy after agriculture.

De Medeiros said he believes Cotonou had been “sorely missing” a contemporary art museum.

“This was something that was necessary,” said de Medeiros. “I think this definitely should be a platform [where] Beninese artists can showcase their work to the world.”

Note: Megan Fahrney is a U.S. Fulbright fellow. The views expressed are solely the author’s and do not represent the views of the United States government.

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Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. Credit: UNDP

By Javier Bronfman
SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

As many middle-income countries in the world, Chile finds itself at a critical juncture. The country has made significant progress over the past decades in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction, yet many structural challenges remain.

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report highlights some of the most pressing issues facing the country today, answering a fundamental question: Why is it so hard to change? At the core of this question are institutional, cultural, and socio-economic factors that have made meaningful reforms difficult to implement.

Below, some important insights coming out of the report.

Institutional Difficulties

Chile’s political and legislative landscape has become increasingly fragmented, creating a gridlock that hinders the passage of much-needed reforms. The report emphasizes how the institutional structure of the country, and especially how the political parties and electoral system fosters a culture of revenge that promoted a constant blocking of the needed legislation and reforms.

Chile’s political system, characterized by a multi-party system with highly polarized factions, has increasing struggles to find common ground and reach agreements. Legislative deadlock arises when parties fail to collaborate, leading to stalled policies.

This institutional impasse is exacerbated by the requirement for supermajorities to pass key reforms, especially constitutional amendments, making it extremely challenging to address deep-rooted issues education, pension reform, or healthcare access.

Even though there is agreement on what reforms are needed, we observe a prevailing culture of revenge that ends up blocking most policy reform effort. Political discourse has become increasingly adversarial, making cooperation across political divides nearly impossible.

Instead of focusing on policy issues, political energy is often spent on character attacks and undermining the opposition. As a result, the public grows increasingly cynical, and trust in the political process erodes.

The inability to foster a culture of dialogue and mutual respect between political actors prevents any meaningful long-term change. Politicians are locked into short-term battles that perpetuate a cycle of revenge, further polarizing society and making structural reforms even harder to achieve, while people wait for things to change.

Difficulties in reconciling growth and inequality: a lack of Future Perspectives

The report also identifies a growing crisis of the future, a deep sense among many Chileans, particularly the youth, that the future is uncertain and precarious.

This “crisis of the future” is characterized by a lack of clear opportunities for advancement, whether in terms of social mobility, career prospects, or general quality of life.

In a society where inequality persists, many young people feel that the traditional paths to success, such as education and employment, no longer guarantee a better future. The rising cost of living, combined with the difficulty of finding secure, well-paying jobs, contributes to a sense of hopelessness.

This crisis is not just economic; it is also emotional and psychological, as more Chileans feel disconnected from the idea of progress and personal development.

This feeling of a “lost future” is also compounded by the existential threat of climate change, which is hitting Chile particularly hard. From severe droughts to devastating wildfires, the environmental crises further erode any sense of stability, reinforcing the feeling that the future is uncertain and full of risk.

A path forward

The 2024 Chilean Human Development Report offers a sobering analysis of why change is so hard in Chile today. Institutional blockages, a culture of retaliation in politics, social inequality, and a pervasive crisis of future perspectives all converge to create a challenging landscape for reform.

Yet, despite these difficulties, the report also points to the potential for new paths forward. Building a more inclusive, forward-looking society requires a shift in political culture, one, as well as economic models that prioritize equality and sustainability.

The challenges are daunting, but they are not insurmountable. By fostering greater political cooperation, addressing institutional inefficiencies, and creating a shared vision of a more equitable future, Chile has the opportunity to break through these barriers.

This will only be possible if the current political and electoral system are reformed towards one that fosters dialogue and long-term compromises. Fortunately, most political sectors agree on those needed reforms, will they be able to come to a national agreement, remains to be seen.

Javier Bronfman is Regional Adviser on SDG Integration

Source: UNDP

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Credit: Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNOHCR)

By Thalif Deen
UNITED NATIONS, Dec 20 2024 (IPS)

The United States, long described as a country built largely by immigrants, is planning to clamp down on migrants, refugees and asylum seekers entering the country—which averaged about 2.4 million in 2022-2023, according to the US Congressional Budget Office.

The incoming Trump administration is calling for “mass deportations” of mostly illegal aliens and undocumented workers.

As he plans to continue his hardline on migration policies, President-elect Donald Trump, who takes office a second time beginning January 20, has also pledged to end birthright citizenship for children born in the United States—which is guaranteed by the 14th amendment of the US constitution.

Trump has also warned Canada and Mexico that he will penalize both countries by imposing 25 percent tariffs on goods– unless they restrict the flow of undocumented migrants and drugs into the US.

During his last presidency (2017-2021), Trump triggered a global backlash when he singled out both Haiti and African nations as “shithole countries” eliciting protests from the 55-member African Union (AU). Trump also came under fire for his insulting statements that “all Haitians have AIDS” and Nigerians who visit the US “would never go back to their huts.”

Meanwhile, in the Middle East, the good news is the toppling of the authoritarian Bashar administration in Syria. But the bad news is that millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey (estimated at more than three million) may be forced to return to Syria. So will Syrian refugees in Germany.

In a report December 14, the New York Times said no other European nation has welcomed as many Syrian refugees as Germany.

While more than 100,000 are now German citizens, the influx is blamed for helping to fuel the rise of the xenophobic far-right political party, Alternative for Germany, which routinely denigrates single young men from Syria and Afghanistan, the Times said.

The rising number of refugees and asylum seekers in the US have been triggered by a surge in political violence and authoritarianism in Venezuela and gang violence in Haiti.

Joseph Chamie, a consulting demographer and a former director of the United Nations Population Division, told IPS the world is in the midst of the Great Migration Clash, which is a bitter struggle between those who “want out” of their countries and those who want others to “keep out” of their countries.

More than a billion people would like to move permanently to another country and no less than a billion people say fewer or no immigrants should be allowed to move into their countries, he pointed out.

“Powerful forces, including demographics, climate change, poverty, hunger, violence and armed conflict, are continuing to fuel the worldwide migration struggle. The supply of potential migrants in developing countries greatly exceeds the demand for migrants in developed countries”.

Increasing numbers of men, women and children who want out of their countries are resorting to irregular migration with many upon arrival claiming asylum, he said.

“The populations with the largest percentages wanting to emigrate are generally found in poor and violence ridden countries. In many of those nations, half or more of the populations say they would like to migrate permanently to another country, typically to Europe and North America”, said Chamie, author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.

According to Cable News Network (CNN) December 19, President-elect Donald Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan said plans are underway to deport undocumented immigrants on a large scale and that he’ll need funding from Congress to do so.

In a CNN interview, Homan said he will need a minimum of 100,000 beds to detain undocumented immigrants — more than doubling the 40,000 detention beds ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) is currently funded for — and needs more ICE agents to carry out Trump’s mass deportation promises.

Homan also said the incoming administration plans to construct new deportation facilities in large metropolitan areas and bring back mass worksite immigration raids — a potentially significant development for some industries that rely on undocumented immigrants’ labor.

At a press conference outside the US Capitol last year, Congresswoman Yvette D. Clarke (NY-09) joined New York City Public Advocate Jumaane D. Williams, members of New York’s Congressional delegation, and immigration activists, to call for federal action on an agenda to address the immediate asylum seeker crisis as well as reform immigration policy infrastructure for the long-term.

“We live in a country where everyone’s family has, at some point, chosen to come to these shores seeking freedom or a better life. That’s why we hear American politicians, and even Americans themselves, love to call themselves “a nation of immigrants”.

“It’s been nearly 250 years since the founding of our nation, and still, America has managed to maintain that self-image – whether through the forced migration of millions of African slaves, restrictive immigration laws based on unjust fears of “inferior” races, and nativist movements that encouraged immigrants to assimilate or leave”.

But the true reality of America’s immigrant heritage is much more complicated beyond myth, she said.

As a senior member of the House Homeland Security Committee, Co-Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Foreign Affairs and Immigration Task Force, and founding co-chair of the House Caribbean and House Haiti Caucuses, “I have seen the glaring inequities and civil rights violations plaguing our immigrants in this nation”.

“Let me be very clear: Our immigration system is broken, and I will not relent until our immigration system reflects a modern and equitable approach to this issue. The time has come for the values of our nation to be reflected in our immigration policies.”

“We need innovative policies and community support to reimagine the immigration system in a humane, just, and fair manner. I’m proud to stand here with my colleagues to demand additional federal aid to address the asylum seeker crisis.

“They came here fleeing everything from political and economic conflict to natural disasters and health crises. They came seeking a better life. They came and made this nation a better and more prosperous place. We are a nation of immigrants, founded by immigrants, so we must do better for our immigrants”, Clarke said.

In contrast to migrant-origin countries, Chamie said, life in the migrant-destination countries is a comparative dreamland, offering a wide array of opportunities, freedoms, rights, safeguards and security for migrants and their children.

The Great Migration Clash is complicated by the asymmetry of migration-related human rights. While everyone has the basic human right to leave their country and return, they do not have the right to enter another country, he pointed out.

Opposition to immigration is reflected in the rise of xenophobia, racism, hostility and violence toward immigrants. Far-right political leaders often depict migrants, refugees and asylum seekers as invaders, infiltrators, criminals, rapists and terrorists, and call for them to go home and to be deported.

The United Nations, the international agencies and governments, especially in destination countries, have been largely ineffective in addressing the Great Migration Clash, which is expected to continue throughout the 21st century, warned Chamie.

Speaking on International Migrants Day December 18, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “this is a day to remind ourselves of the challenges migrants can face — from prejudice and discrimination to outright violence and abuse, and the unimaginable cruelty of human trafficking”.

And, in a joint call to action, the UN Refugee Agency, the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), and the UN Special Rapporteurs on Trafficking in Persons, alongside humanitarian organizations, called on States to protect refugees and migrants in distress-at-sea.

“The call is prompted by the rising casualties that we often talk about here. Each year, thousands of refugees and migrants risk deadly journeys in desperate attempts to escape violence, persecution, and poverty,” said Guterres.

IPS UN Bureau Report

 

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Nelson Amenya is hailed as a hero in Kenya after sharing details of a plan to lease the main airport.

Nelson Amenya is hailed as a hero in Kenya after sharing details of a plan to lease the main airport.

Nelson Amenya is hailed as a hero in Kenya after sharing details of a plan to lease the main airport.

Credit: Masson/shutterstock.com

By Herbert Wulf
DUISBURG, Germany, Dec 19 2024 (IPS)

Donald Trump, president-elect of the USA, wants to end the Ukraine war within a day, as he has emphasized several times, but without saying how. Despite the brutal clashes on the ground in Ukraine, do negotiations now have a chance? Are we near to a “ripe moment” for negotiations?

The war continues unabated. There is no end in sight. Can we hope that Donald Trump will find a personal connection to Vladimir Putin to end this war? The phone call on 15 November between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Putin – the first telephone contact in two years – was sobering because Putin only reaffirmed his already known positions: He is ready for negotiations, but only on his terms. In other words, recognition of the “new territorial realities” and “consideration of Russian security interests”. In concrete terms, this would mean the handover of the four regions in eastern Ukraine, parts of which are occupied by Russia, and Crimea. Scholz called for negotiations with the aim of a “just and lasting peace”, which is primarily aimed at the withdrawal of Russian troops.

The Russian attack and Ukrainian defence have turned into a war of exhaustion, with current military advantages for Russia. The Russian strategy can be described as an escalation with the hope of a military victory. So far, Ukraine and its supporters have reacted with intense resistance. Western support has escalated with the delivery of more effective weapons and belief that victory is still possible. But increasingly a certain fatigue can be felt among them and Trump has made it clear that the massive support will no longer come from the USA.

What is the consequence for the Ukraine war, and what is the alternative to this battle with more and more deaths? Negotiations now? Is there a chance for peace without military victory? But neither side is ready yet for serious negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky was not happy about Scholz’s initiative and spoke of a policy of appeasement, also because the call counteracts Putin’s international isolation.

The American political scientist William Zartman speaks of the necessary “ripeness” of a conflict as a prerequisite for the success of negotiations. The concept of “ripe moments” centres, according to Zartman, on the adversaries’ perceptions of “hurting stalemates”. The willingness to negotiate increases when both sides realize that a military victory is not possible and that the military potential, i.e. soldiers and weapons, is no longer sufficient. The depressing conclusion is that today, even after almost 1,000 days of war, this situation does not exist in Russia or Ukraine. But the increasing logistical bottlenecks on both sides, the irreplaceable, irrecoverable and permanent losses are perhaps an indication that the conflict is in a process of maturing for negotiations. Even Russia, with its present territorial advances, seems not able to replace its casualties. The arrival of about 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia raises the question of whether the Kremlin can make up for its enormous losses.

Different scenarios

Four scenarios are conceivable, all of which are far from an ideal solution.

First, it is not inconceivable that the war, which has now lasted almost three years, with all its destruction and loss of life, will continue for another few years without an end in sight.

Second, Donald Trump could actually strike a deal with Vladimir Putin, presumably at the expense of Ukraine. Trump believes in deals. Russia would receive the parts of Ukraine it occupies, a demilitarized zone would be established along this border within Ukraine, Ukraine would receive security guarantees (from NATO, the United Nations, or a grouping of neutral states), and a peace treaty would be postponed until later. And “later” could mean decades without a peace treaty.

Third, one side could win militarily. Unlikely, but not completely out of the question. The Kremlin firmly believes in this possibility and is assured by its territorial gains in recent weeks. At the same time, the Russian leadership underestimated Ukraine’s will to resist at the beginning of the full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and then had to significantly limit its war goals, the overthrow of the government in Kyiv and the integration of Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

The fourth scenario, a ceasefire and a frozen conflict. There are a number of conflicts that are in this state of having no real solution. In recent years, the situation in Korea has been referred to several times in order to consider a similar solution to the Ukraine war. This scenario is perhaps the most likely.

Ceasefire and a frozen conflict: The Korean solution

Of course, every conflict is different, and the respective conditions also differ. Nevertheless, there might be both conflict patterns and patterns of conflict resolution that could provide clues to Ukraine’s future. Sergey Radchenko, a historian at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in the US, pointed out parallels to the Korean War in an op-ed in the New York Times after a year of the Ukraine war. More than 70 years ago, in July 1953, an armistice agreement and the establishment of a demilitarized zone led to the freezing of this war and the division of Korea into two separate states.

Recently, Joseph S. Nye, one of the most influential political scientists in the USA, pointed to a “Korean solution” in an article entitled “What Would Victory in Ukraine Look Like?”. He writes: “If Ukraine defines victory as the return of all land that Russia has occupied since 2014, victory is not in sight. But if it aims to maintain its independence as a prosperous democracy linked to Europe, while reserving its right to the ultimate return of its territory, victory remains possible.” The Korean War also swayed back and forth from 1950 to 1953. Like what is happening now in Ukraine, neither the north nor the south, nor their respective supporters, were prepared to end the war quickly because of hopes of a military victory. The Korean armistice agreement of July 1953 stipulated the status quo ante with the division of the country at the 38th parallel. Korea is still a divided country, and the conflict is a frozen one. A peace treaty was never concluded and the so-called demilitarized zone along the border between the two states is one of the most militarized borders in the world. A permanent ceasefire was reached without a peace agreement.

Proponents of a “Korean solution” point out that the destruction and loss of life has ended, and that South Korea has now become a resilient democracy and emerging economic power. Democratic development and integration in Western Europe could then follow in the same way in Ukraine.

Critics of such a solution describe the Korean ceasefire as a “non-solution”. The Swiss historian Roland Popp, who researches at the Military Academy of the University ETH Zurich, writes that this Korean solution “also covers four decades of one of the most brutal dictatorships in the world, massacres of tens of thousands of civilians … or the assassination of the president by the director of the South Korean CIA in 1979.” And he points to the immense costs and uncertainties for Western Europe.

In 1953, a Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission was set up in Korea. In the more than seven decades of the existence of the armistice agreement there have been numerous military skirmishes on the border. North Korea’s nuclear weapons program is a threat, just as the North calls the South Korean military with its ally the United States a threat. Precisely for this reason, is it remarkable that this agreement has prevented a new war with heavy losses for more than seven decades. The consequences of a Korean solution for the situation in Europe would probably also mean, as in the case of the Korean peninsula, arms races as during the early days of the Cold War

Neutral states could also play an important role in ending the Ukraine war: for example, India, South Africa, Brazil or Switzerland. If neither side makes significant gains in Ukraine, a ceasefire would not be impossible. Presumably, the Ukrainians would not regain all the territories occupied by Russia. Russia could interpret the abandonment of its actual goal as a partial victory in order to save face. The conflict would be frozen. Not a nice result, but still the end of the war. A frozen conflict is better than a hot war. But the history of frozen wars shows that they can turn into hot wars again at any time. In the case of Ukraine, the imposition of an unfair solution could possibly result in Ukrainian partisan resistance.

A possible fifth scenario, a peace agreement that is binding under international law, with an agreement between Russia and Ukraine, currently seems to be completely out of the question.

Related articles by this author:
– Agonizing over Europe’s Defence: Some Narratives are Getting Ahead of the Facts
– Boots on the ground
– Ten Take-Aways on Russia’s War and Five Ideas for the Future of Ukraine and Beyond

Herbert Wulf is a Professor of International Relations and former Director of the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies (BICC). He is presently a Senior Fellow at BICC, an Adjunct Senior Researcher at the Institute for Development and Peace, University of Duisburg/Essen, Germany, and a Research Affiliate at the National Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Otago, New Zealand. He serves on the Scientific Council of SIPRI.

This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from the original with their permission.

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