European Union

Written by Ralf Drachenberg.

The last European Council meeting of 2024 will be the first to be prepared and chaired by the institution’s new President, António Costa. The agenda has a heavy external relations component, including, besides Ukraine, a strategic discussion on the ‘EU in the world’. This exchange over dinner, not designed to lead to written conclusions, will cover transatlantic relations, EU-UK relations and enlargement. In addition, EU leaders will discuss the situation in the Middle East and developments in Moldova and Georgia. Other items on the agenda include migration and readiness for future crises. The European Council meeting will be preceded by an EU-Western Balkans Summit on 18 December.

1.     EU-Western Balkans Summit

The EU-Western Balkans Summit is scheduled for the evening before the European Council meeting, on 18 December. At the summit, leaders will discuss: (i) implementation of the growth plan; (ii) regional integration efforts; (iii) further integration possibilities; and (iv) shared geopolitical challenges. In preparation for the meeting, President Costa had an informal dinner with the leaders of the Western Balkan countries on 3 December, also attended by the Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, and the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy/Vice‑President (HR/VP), Kaja Kallas. After the dinner, Costa tweeted: ‘The future of the Western Balkans is in the EU. Let’s work to make it happen’.

2.     European Council meeting General

Following the customary opening address by the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, an in-person discussion with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is envisaged. As usual at the end of every 6-month presidency of the Council of the EU, the 19 December European Council meeting will conclude with a report by the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, on the achievements of the Hungarian Presidency.

Before taking over the European Council presidency on 1 December, António Costa announced that he wanted to introduce a number of changes to the European Council’s working methods. His aim is to improve interinstitutional relations, shorten European Council meetings and close the gap between Europe’s citizens and the EU institutions. He appears to be off to a promising start. After a first meeting with the presidents of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, and of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on 2 December, Costa attended the European Parliament’s Conference of Presidents meeting on 11 December. His invitation letter to the European Council meeting was sent 2 weeks ahead, contrasting with the last-minute missives of his predecessor. In line with the aim of shortening the European Council meetings, this first meeting is scheduled to last 1 day only.

Costa has also published a new leaders’ agenda for the European Council, setting out a work programme for the European Council for the whole of 2025, whereas the most recent editions issued by former President Charles Michel often only covered a couple of months. A first observation is that Ukraine and the Middle East will be on the agenda of the European Council at each meeting in 2025 for ‘as long as needed’. Moreover, the topics that were salient in the European Council in 2024 – and highlighted as priorities in the 2024-2029 strategic agenda, notably competitiveness, security and defence, and migration – also feature prominently on the agenda for 2025. However, the leaders’ agenda also envisages working sessions on topics that are rarely discussed by EU Heads of State or Government, such as oceans and housing. Regarding the latter, Costa most likely wants to make good on his promise to discuss ‘the problems of the citizens’.

Another innovation is Costa’s suggestion that the European Council should join the other EU institutions in the Interinstitutional Ethics Body, which will thereby also cover the position of the European Council President himself. If this proposal is confirmed by EU leaders, former European Council President Herman Van Rompuy will represent the European Council in this body.

Since the change at the helm, there also seems to be new impetus in the area of justice and home affairs. The Council has approved the ‘strategic guidelines for legislative and operational planning within the area of freedom, security and justice’, which, according to Article 68 TFEU, need to be adopted by the European Council for each institutional cycle. For the last 5 years, the European Council did not comply with this Treaty obligation; EU leaders should now endorse the guidelines.

Ukraine

On his first day as President of the European Council, Costa was in Kyiv and held meetings with Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, Speaker of the Parliament, Ruslan Stefanchuk, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, followed by a joint press conference with the latter. Costa continued the messaging often reiterated by the European Council, emphasising that ‘we will stand with you for as long as necessary and whatever it takes. We stand firmly on the side of your right to self-defence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. And we will do our utmost to see you in the European Union as a free European nation as soon as possible’.

EU leaders are expected to emphasise that Russia must not win the war, and to call for increased efforts to help Ukraine, particularly in terms of air defence systems, ammunition and missiles. At the 19 November Foreign Affairs Council meeting, it was announced that the EU had almost reached the target of delivering 1 million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine – a target that should have been met 8 months ago. In view of past delays, EU leaders could discuss the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s own defence industry and deepening its cooperation with the EU defence industry. The European Council is likely to call for efforts to strengthen the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine and for the decisions taken under the European Peace Facility (EPC) to be implemented. Reportedly, Hungary continues to refuse to participate in the proposal on voluntary contributions to the EPC.

The European Council is likely to welcome the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, which was adopted by the Council on 16 December. It may also reiterate previous calls for sanctions to be fully and effectively enforced. In addition, EU leaders are likely to condemn any support provided to Russia by third countries, namely military support from Iran and North Korea as well as the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia in order to participate in the war against Ukraine. EU leaders will condemn Russia’s continued attacks against civilian and energy infrastructure. They will also most likely call for extra support to keep Ukraine’s energy infrastructure running and for further integration of the Ukrainian and Moldovan systems in the EU’s energy network.

EU in the world

In his invitation letter, Costa announced that the EU’s engagement with the world would be the second core theme of the December meeting. EU leaders are to hold a ‘comprehensive and strategic discussion’ on the subject over dinner, but without agreeing on written conclusions. Costa has also highlighted three main topics for that strategic discussion. Enlargement, as ‘the main geopolitical investment we can make in our neighbourhood’, will be one of them, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia having given new impetus to the enlargement debate. The topic, which was not mentioned at all in the 2019-2024 Strategic Agenda, was given a prominent place in the 2024-2029 Strategic Agenda, which describes enlargement as ‘a geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability and prosperity‘. At the December meeting, EU leaders may discuss both aspects of the enlargement debate: the external aspect (the progress, or backsliding, of applicant states) and the internal aspect (the internal reforms announced at the June 2024 European Council meeting).

Transatlantic relations will also be part of the discussion on the EU in the world. The December European Council meeting will be the first formal meeting since Donald Trump’s election, and the last before he is sworn in for his second term as President of the United States. EU leaders are likely to discuss what his presidency will entail for European security and defence, and for the EU economy, and how best to work with the Trump administration on matters of interest to both sides. They might also follow up on EU foreign ministers’ recent discussion on EU-US relations, and its implications for Ukraine and the Middle East.

The third topic EU leaders will discuss over dinner are post-Brexit relations between the EU and the United Kingdom, which have improved since the Labour party came into government in July 2024. Two weeks after the UK election, at the European Political Community meeting in Oxfordshire, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer made it clear that he wanted to reset the EU-UK relationship. The war in Ukraine and the unknowns brought about by the upcoming Trump presidency have led the EU and the UK to be increasingly open to cooperation in the area of security and defence. In October 2024, the British Foreign Secretary attended a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers on shared security challenges facing Europe. In a joint statement, the HR/VP and the UK Foreign Secretary emphasised the importance of regular exchanges and the need to be close partners in security and defence. The EU and the UK are reportedly working on a joint security pact.

Middle East

EU leaders will reiterate calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages, improved humanitarian access to Gaza, and the EU’s commitment to peace based on the two-state solution. They may also emphasise their commitment to providing humanitarian aid to the most vulnerable in the Middle East, notably in Gaza, where extreme food shortages have been reported. As regards Lebanon, the ceasefire agreement brokered between Israel and Hezbollah in November has been violated on numerous occasions. Thus, EU leaders may call on all parties to respect the ceasefire and work towards lasting peace in Lebanon.

EU leaders are also expected to address the situation in Syria. After an offensive launched by rebel groups on 27 November, the regime was toppled and deposed President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow. In a tweet, Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob stated that he was looking forward to discussing with EU leaders ways of helping the Syrian people and achieving a ‘dignified, secure, and stable future’. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk pointed to the links between Russia and the Assad regime, and others expressed concerns about the transition and the protection of civilians.

Given that one of the main rebel groups, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), formerly had links to Al-Qaida and Islamic State (Da’esh), EU leaders are expected to discuss how the EU should interact (or not) with the new powers in Syria. Even if HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani/Ahmed al-Sharaa, has promised that Syrians, including minorities, will be safe, the stability of Syria and security of religious/ethnic groups is a matter of concern. In that context, EU leaders may discuss whether it is safe to return Syrians who have sought refuge in the EU since 2011. Some EU countries have halted the processing of Syrian asylum applications; the Austrian Interior Minister has even been preparing a repatriation and deportation programme. Conversely, Spain has said it will continue to process asylum applications. Thus, EU leaders are likely to discuss the implications of developments in Syria for security in the broader Middle East.

Resilience, preparedness, crisis prevention and response

EU leaders will discuss the report by the former President of Finland and Special Adviser to the President of the European Commission, Sauli Niinistö, on how to enhance the EU’s civilian and military preparedness and its readiness for future crises. Reflecting the changing geopolitical environment, the report follows the same logic seen in the 2024-2029 Strategic Agenda, building on an integrated approach to internal and external policies that links the internal and external aspects of security and economic policy. The report presents around 80 recommendations for short-, medium- and long-term actions, to help guide upcoming Commission initiatives, notably the ‘Preparedness Union’ strategy and the white paper on the future of European defence.

Migration

The main aim of the discussion on migration is for EU leaders to review the implementation of the previous European Council conclusions from the October 2024 meeting. The discussion will be informed by a letter from the European Commission President providing an overview of recent and upcoming activities. The two most concrete areas of activity concern returns and cooperation with third countries. On the former, the Commission is expected to present, within the first 100 days of the new Commission’s term, a proposal for a directive on returning third-country nationals who are staying illegally in the EU. On the latter, a series of memoranda of understanding for comprehensive partnership packages with third countries of origin and transit – following the model of the EU‑Tunisia agreement and the strategic and comprehensive partnership between Egypt and the EU – are currently being prepared with Lebanon, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Ethiopia.

EU leaders might also continue their discussions on ‘innovative solutions’, notably return hubs, and possibly try to anticipate the impact of the situation in Syria on migration flows from that area. However, the conclusions on migration are expected to be rather short.

External relations

EU leaders may congratulate Moldova on the running of its presidential elections and of the referendum, despite Russian attempts to undermine the democratic process. They may also reiterate their support for Moldova on its European path and for its territorial integrity. Echoing the joint statement by leading MEPs, the European Council may express its regret about the Georgian government’s decision to halt the country’s EU accession process until 2028. Georgians took to the streets to protest against the decision, and EU leaders may condemn the violence against these protestors by the Georgian authorities.

Read this briefing on ‘Outlook for the EU leaders’ meetings on 18-19 December 2024‘ in the Think Tank pages of the European Parliament.

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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Source : © European Union, 2024 - EP

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