Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

La formation Objectif IA développée par l’Institut Montaigne et OpenClassrooms en partenariat avec la Fondation Abeona présente certains exemples d'initiatives qui font usage d'intelligence artificielle dans le domaine de l’éducation, par exemple pour complémenter l’apprentissage de la lecture et de l’écriture. En quoi l’IA et l’apprentissage machine peuvent-elles être utilisées au service…

Zusammenfassung:

Seit März hat die Corona-Pandemie Deutschland fest im Griff. Weitreichende Beschränkungen des sozialen Lebens wurden vor allem zum Schutz älterer und weiterer besonders gefährdeter Menschen erlassen. Seit Mai werden diese Maßnahmen  schrittweise gelockert. Dabei stellt sich verstärkt die Frage, wie trotz der Lockerungen vulnerable Teile der Bevölkerung geschützt werden können. In vielen Ländern wird eine Umkehrisolation diskutiert: So sollen die Jungen und Gesunden das soziale Leben allmählich wiederaufnehmen, während die Älteren und weitere besonders gefährdete Gruppen isoliert bleiben. In diesem Zusammenhang ist es aber wichtig, die soziale Situation der älteren Menschen nicht aus dem Blick zu verlieren. Die vorliegende Studie beschreibt daher die soziale Situation älterer Menschen in Deutschland unter besonderer Berücksichtigung ihrer mentalen Gesundheit und möglicher Risikofaktoren sozialer Vereinsamung.[1]

Trop peu a été dit au sujet de la diversité des postures internationales de la Chine ces derniers jours. Xi Jinping a d’abord proposé 2 milliards de dollars pour les pays en développement afin d’aider l'Organisation mondiale de la santé dans sa lutte contre le Covid-19, et a promis de nombreuses initiatives médicales en Afrique. En parallèle, Liu He, le négociateur commercial en chef de la Chine, a réitéré son engagement à appliquer en 2020 l'…

Asien gehört zu den vom Klimawandel besonders betroffenen Gebieten: Von den zehn Ländern, die von 1999 bis 2018 am meisten von Extremwetter geschädigt wurden, liegen sieben in Asien. Sehr schwer getroffen ist derzeit die Mekong-Region, die von einer Jahrhundertdürre geplagt wird. Ernteausfälle, Nahrungsmittelknappheit und Wassermangel sind nur einige Auswirkungen. Verschärft werden sie durch den Bau von Staudämmen am Oberlauf des Mekong, was oft lokale wie zwischenstaatliche Kon­flikte nach sich zieht. Daher ist es notwendig, ein nachhaltiges transnationales Wasser­management für den Mekong zu etablieren. Unter dem Gesichtspunkt einer globalen Klimapolitik sollte Deutschland sich weiterhin dafür engagieren.

In East Africa, and particularly in the Horn of Africa, several crises are currently overlapping. For some time now, climate events such as droughts have been creating major food supply bottlenecks in addition to fuelling conflict and war. These events are being exacerbated by a locust swarm that originated in Yemen and has been growing exponentially since October 2019. One of the reasons for the phenomenon is the increasingly frequent climatic event the “India Ocean Drop”, which has led to high levels of humidity and flooding in recent years. By June 2020, locusts are expected to multiply a further 500 times, which poses a massive threat to the crops in the coming harvest, previously forecast to be profitable.

Covid-19 comes as an additional problem, and it is unclear how widespread the virus has already become in East Africa, as there has been little testing. But the official figures are rising, and the number of unreported cases is probably high. What is certain is that the confluence of the pandemic with other crises, as well as the responses to them, will lead to a cascade of problems – a dynamic known from the policy area of civil protection. As a result, a doubling of the number of people affected by extreme hunger has to be expected. 

Covid-19 measures exacerbate the food supply crisis

Health policy responses to Covid-19 are taking place within a frame of extremely limited medical capacities: In Somalia there are 0.028 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants; in Kenya it is just under 0.2 (Germany: 4.2). As in other countries, efforts are being made to expand health capacities and implement hygiene rules. However, the latter are often limited due to poor water infrastructure. In reaction to these limitations, countries in East Africa rely heavily on border closures, travel restrictions, and strict lockdowns to flatten the infection curve. However, it is precisely these measures that make securing the food supply and controlling the locust population more difficult, which in turn leads to further food shortages. This shows that an approach which focuses only on one crisis can exacerbate other crises. There are also different crisis dynamics in urban and rural areas, for which individual responses must be made. At the same time, they influence each other and must be considered together.

Covid-19 and the reactive measures to it reach the populations in cities first and fastest. Here, many of the people who work in the informal sector often live in very confined spaces. They are particularly hard hit by the mobility restrictions, as they are unable to generate income, build up food reserves, or provide for their families. In urban centres, however, it is in principle easier to deliver aid to the suffering populations than in the countrysides – even though Corona restrictions can disrupt the market connections to rural producers with limited mobility. The other heavily affected group is comprised of refugees – in East Africa there are more than 10 million internally displaced persons who are receiving hardly any support. Refugees living in camps are particularly vulnerable to Covid-19, but unlike the day labourers in the cities, they are supplied by external aid organisations.

The lower population densities in rural areas and the widespread subsistence economy tend to make the populations there less susceptible to health and supply risks than city dwellers. However, the majority of farmers still have to buy additional food because their own harvests are not sufficient. They are thus also affected by price increases and supply bottlenecks for food, but also for seeds and fodder, which can be due to the locusts as well as Corona-related border closures and mobility restrictions.

Reconciling health protection and security of supply

How should solutions be tailored to do justice to this complex situation with its many interdependent crises and problems? First of all, government agencies must find ways to connect towns and countrysides to supply markets in the towns and cities and enable providers in the countrysides to make a living. African experience in dealing with Ebola can also be drawn on, according to which health protection and security of supply could be well reconciled. In West Africa, for example, there were collection points for the domestic trade of food, in which only a few people – using personal protective equipment – were involved. East Africa and the Horn are also pioneers in cashless financial transactions. This makes it possible to provide direct financial support to endangered population groups instead of direct food aid. Aid is thus distributed more fairly, the population can decide for itself how best to use the money, depending on the local situation, and the domestic market is strengthened.

At the regional level, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development could provide coordination for the crisis response: Based on excellent networking, it has proven to be essential for information about Covid-19 in the region.

International efforts should be made to ensure the trade in food and feed, insecticides, and drones; trade restrictions on these essential goods in particular must be dismantled. It must also be ensured that aid workers can move freely on the ground. Rapid financial assistance is also needed to respond to the expected increase in locust swarms, something that has been decided now by donors such as the World Bank and the EU.

In all local, regional, and international approaches, the longer-term problem of climate change should be considered an underlying major driver for several crises.

This text was also published at fairobserver.com.

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How COVID-19 and measures to curb its spread have amplified the vulnerabilities of civilians caught in conflict and raised new challenges for protection actors like humanitarian workers, peacekeepers, and human rights defenders was the subject of a May 28th IPI virtual policy forum. Co-hosting the event with IPI were the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and the Permanent Missions of the United Kingdom, Estonia, Niger, and Canada to the UN.

“The health crisis is quickly becoming a protection crisis,” declared Natacha Emerson of OCHA. “Collective and urgent action is needed to strengthen the protection of civilians so that we can tackle the pandemic and safeguard humanity. For people already struggling to cope with conflict, displacement, and hunger, COVID-19 adds another layer of insecurity, and in conflict settings the virus can easily grab hold and overwhelm crippled health care systems with deadly consequences.”

IPI Senior Fellow Dr. Namie Di Razza, who heads IPI’s Protection of Civilians (POC) program, introduced the discussion with the observation that COVID-19 “has had major disruptive effects, but it has not stopped atrocities, violence and abuse. On the contrary, the pandemic has raised new protection concerns for humanitarian workers, peacekeepers, and human rights defenders.”

Ilze Brands Kehris, Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, said that human rights violations were rapidly rising in conflict situations in the world, with parties to the conflicts exploiting the circumstances of the pandemic to their advantage, further endangering the most vulnerable people. “So it is in this time of global crisis that universal values and norms, as guaranteed in international law, need more urgent attention than ever, and it also directly engages the responsibilities of states and other duty bearers to uphold their obligations under the law.”

She said that people infected with COVID-19 or suspected of being infected were being stigmatized, attacked and denied medical assistance, and even media representatives who report on the virus were being targeted. “Efforts to fight impunity are significantly impacted [and] governments are focused on the health response, so investigations and trials are de facto put on hold,’’ she said. As a consequence, there could be a premature release of grave human rights violators under the pretext of decongesting prisons for public health reasons. “The UN system must do better in better protecting people in pulling together different mandates and operational activities into one coherent whole under one and the same understanding of protection, putting human rights at the center.”

Laetitia Courtois, Head of Delegation to the UN, International Committee of the Red Cross, said that her organization was used to dealing with epidemics, but never with a pandemic of this “scope and impact.“ She broke down ICRC’s major protection concerns, and outlined four “asks” that would serve to mitigate and alleviate the repercussions of COVID-19:

• Insist that member states and parties to the conflict respect International Humanitarian Law (IHL);
• Prevent COVID-19 restrictions from hampering the movement of humanitarian staff and essential services;
• Protect medical equipment and medical personnel at all times; and
• Ensure that ICRC and other impartial organizations are allowed to continue working with non-state armed groups, and keep counterterrorism measures from impeding them from engaging with the groups, even those designated as “terrorist.”

Heather Barr, Acting Co-Director, Women’s Rights Division, Human Rights Watch, said the COVID-19 crisis had become “a global crisis for women.” She said there had been “huge spikes” in gender-based violence; waves of restrictions, staff shortages and shutdowns at clinics that provide sexual reproductive services; loss of income and jobs for health care workers, 70 percent of whom are women; and widespread closures of schools for girls, which adversely affects rates of child marriage, pregnancy, and sexual violence.

She pointed to water and sanitation as an example of how COVID-19, gender, and preexisting crises “come together in a really harmful way. We all know that washing your hands is important, but often they can’t safely access toilets, latrines, and water points because of concerns about sexual violence, poorly designed camps, lack of freedom of movement for women and girls, and that’s really a crisis in this situation.” She added that long term recovery planning must be gender responsive and “has to think about what impact there’s been on women and how we repair that.”

Caitlin Brady, Director of Programme Development and Quality for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Save the Children, gave a stark account of the effects of epidemics on children, based on past experience. “Border closures and impacts on trade will increase economic hardship everywhere, of course, creating a range of risks, one of them hunger, malnutrition, and associated diseases, and vulnerability to sexual exploitation and abuse, as we saw in the West African Ebola response. We’ll see very weak health facilities, which are already directly targeted by armed groups or are collateral damage when explosive weapons are used in populated areas. Having to respond not just to existing illness and childbirth, but also to COVID-19 will increase excessive maternal and infant mortality.” She forecast that children would be subject to recruitment by armed groups and harsh labor like working in mines.

It was imperative, she said, that school feeding programs be maintained even if the schools themselves were closed. “Yes, the pandemic is a public health emergency, but it’s exacerbating existing protection crises and patterns of marginalization. It’s important that while countries try to respond to the epidemic, they continue with commitments to address child protection and other humanitarian needs.”

Koffi Wogomebu, Senior Protection Adviser, UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), said that steps to curb the virus like limitations on the ability to travel into the field were inadvertently impeding the peacekeeping mission’s POC work. “I just want to say that COVID-19 itself did not constitute a physical violence against civilians falling under our POC mandate, but it is seriously having direct and indirect consequences on the protection of civilians. Measures taken to protect public health such as scaling back activity to prevent the spread of the disease are certainly posing a serious risk to the protection of civilians.”

He said too that the 14 armed groups in the Central African Republic, despite the UN Secretary-General’s call for a global ceasefire, were exploiting the lockdown situation to advance their own aims. “We believe that they take advantage of the fact that we are no longer moving a lot to within their territory, and in doing so, they are committing some serious human rights violations.” In addition, he said, there was an “anti-MINUSCA sentiment” arising out of the misperception that it was the responsibility of the UN mission to slow the spread of the virus and produce a remedy. “This has a put another pressure on the mission,” he said.

James Roscoe, Acting Deputy Representative of the United Kingdom to the UN, said that the UK, working with other countries, had made four pledges in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak. He listed them as supporting an effective health response led by the World Health Organization (WHO); reinforcing resilience in the most vulnerable countries; pursuing treatments and vaccines; and helping to “shore up” the global economy. As for POC and the COVID-19 crisis, he said, the United Kingdom would work to expedite access and needed equipment and to guarantee “unfettered humanitarian access.”

In concluding remarks, Gert Auväärt, Deputy Permanent Representative of Estonia to the UN, lamented that some conflict parties have “sought to take advantage of the situation, and regrettably it has provided a pretext to adopt repressive measures for purposes unrelated to the pandemic.” The main message, he said, was that “we need more protection, not less.”

Mohammad Koba, Deputy Permanent Representative of Indonesia to the UN, observed that “what is more important now with the spread of coronavirus already and international cooperation is to support those who are most vulnerable to the virus, particularly in armed conflict.” Furthermore, he reiterated that Indonesia “fully support[s] the call for the immediate global ceasefire. It is an extremely important call for all parties to the conflict, to focus on the handling the impact of COVID-19, provide respite for civilians, facilitate the delivery of humanitarian assistance, and offer space for continued diplomacy.”

Abdou Abarry, Permanent Representative of Niger, remarked that “one of the unfortunate unintended consequences of COVID-19 is the worldwide alarming increase of gender-based violence and violence against our children,” which exacerbated existing inequalities “particularly in African countries where women constitute the majority of the work force.” He said that direct and indiscriminate attacks on schools had deprived over one half million African children of education. “An attack on education is an attack on the future,” he declared. Looking ahead, he said that when a safe and effective vaccine would be developed, “let it be the people’s vaccine, available to all. This would be a cornerstone of the POC agenda.”

Richard Arbeiter, Deputy Permanent Representative of Canada to the UN, commended participants for ensuring that the just concluded POC week “was not a casualty of COVID-19 as well.” He praised the POC community’s work, saying that “the POC community is very sophisticated and it has evolved over twenty years. I am amazed by how quickly all parts of this community has been able to identify and analyze the situations locally and what that means globally for all of us. [Panelists] had ground-truth reality recommendations, both to acknowledge what is working, where the gaps and inequalities have been exacerbated as well. It’s really quite something to stand back from it and see how quickly and ably we are able to figure out what needs to change in order for those that are most vulnerable to receive the support that they need.”

Dr. Di Razza moderated the discussion.

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Lancering af DIIS-rapport om den sikkerhedspolitiske situation i Arktis

Addressing resilience in Denmark’s development policy

Les maladies psychiatriques sont des maladies comme les autres : elles peuvent se prévenir et se guérir. Pourtant, dans l'ouvrage Psychiatrie : l'état d'urgence (Fayard, 2018) l’Institut Montaigne faisait le constat que ces maladies sont toujours mal connues, stigmatisées, alors qu'elles touchent un Français sur cinq. Les professionnels de santé ne sont pas épargnés…

Since Turkey’s controversial acquisition of the S-400 missile system from Russia, the narrative that the EU is facing a twin challenge from the East has been gaining currency in European capitals. Turkey and Russia are often portrayed as two authori­tarian regimes led by strong leaders who favour an omnipotent state at the expense of fundamental freedoms and liberal democratic institutions. Yet, putting these two countries into the same basket and formulating policies accordingly is problematic. The EU has separate sets of relations with Russia and Turkey. Ankara remains part of NATO and the EU’s Customs Union. That said, Turkey is quickly approaching a critical crossroad on its turbulent political journey: The country will either consolidate its authoritarian regime or return to democracy. The EU has a high stake in this matter, and thus it needs to take a proactive stance in favour of pro-democracy forces.

∎ Deutschland ist über die »nukleare Teilhabe« in die atomare Ab­schreckungspolitik der Nato eingebunden. Die Fähigkeit, mit deutschen Flugzeugen die in Deutschland gelagerten amerikanischen Atombomben einzusetzen, soll nach den Vorstellungen des Bundesverteidigungs­ministeriums nahtlos gewährleistet bleiben.

∎ Für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland spielte die nukleare Teilhabe unter den Bedingungen des Ost-West-Konflikts eine wichtige Rolle. Aufgrund der geographischen Lage Deutschlands als primärem potentiellem Schlachtfeld gab es genuin deutsche Interessen, die in der Nato durch­gesetzt werden sollten.

∎ Nicht recht erkennbar ist, was über die Bewahrung des Status quo und die allianzpolitische Symbolik hinaus die spezifisch deutschen Interessen und Ziele sind, die unter heutigen Bedingungen im Rahmen der nuklearen Teilhabe geltend gemacht werden sollen.

∎ Deutschland wird sich auf Dauer schwerlich der nuklearen Debatte ent­ziehen können, die von den USA in die Nato ausstrahlt. Glaubwürdige Abschreckung beruht im amerikanischen Verständnis auf der Fähigkeit zur nuklearen Kriegsführung.

∎ Dies ist eine Herausforderung für die im deutschen sicherheitspolitischen Denken tradierte Trennung von Abschreckung und Kriegsführung. Deutsches Abschreckungsdenken ist nach wie vor geprägt von einer Sicht, in der Nuklearwaffen vor allem »politische Waffen« sind.

The current public health crisis has become a major challenge for European economies. It particularly affects countries in the southern part of the euro area, as they are still suffering from the effects of the euro crisis. In the absence of a convincing fiscal policy response from the European Union (EU) or the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) has once again stepped in to stabilise the common currency. An intervention by the ECB costs little politically: It does not require a decision by the heads of state and government, nor does it require the approval of the parliaments of the Member States. Without the rapid intervention of the ECB in this very volatile crisis, the single currency would most likely already have been seriously threatened.

Even in the euro crisis, the ECB’s expansive monetary policy had supported the affected economies. In the face of low interest rates, governments saved hundreds of billions of euros for debt servicing at the time. However, the ECB’s stabilisation policy had various undesirable side effects. Low interest rates hurt savers and inflated the real estate bubble. The purchase of Member States’ debt securities also led to the increased involvement of the ECB in their economic and fiscal policies. Pressure from the central bank on the Irish government in 2010 to bail out distressed banks with taxpayers’ money is evidence of this. Another example is the secret letters sent by the central bank to the Italian and Spanish governments in August 2011, giving them an ultimatum to initiate reforms. The recent large-scale purchases of government bonds in response to the pandemic could – if the ECB continues its policy in this way for a longer period of time – once again make the ECB a hostage of the economic policies of the affected countries.

Legally questionable commitment of the ECB

It is also problematic that such a massive engagement by the ECB goes beyond its designed role and raises legal questions, as shown by the recent ruling of the German Federal Constitutional Court (BVerfG). The central bank’s main weapon is its potential ability to intervene indefinitely in the financial markets, including the purchase of government bonds. However, the BVerfG has formulated conditions for the purchase of assets, including an upper limit per issuer and a time limit for these transactions. With these limitations, the Eurosystem’s ability to effectively stabilise public debt over the course of several years is brought into question.

The euro area countries should use the time given to them through the ECB intervention to reduce their dependence on the ECB’s monetary policy. First and foremost, they must address their structural problems.

However, the measures adopted so far to combat the consequences of the pandemic have primarily been limited to financial support. For example, the EU has approved various aid instruments for the countries affected by the pandemic totalling up to €540 billion, including the instrument for short-time working (SURE). The Commission’s new draft for the EU’s multiannual financial framework will also take greater account of the costs of the pandemic crisis, including a new huge €750 billion recovery instrument, higher than the one proposed jointly by France and Germany. The financial solidarity expressed here is important, but money alone is not enough to alleviate the structural problems in southern European countries. Even before the euro crisis, the economic models of many of these countries were unsustainable in the long term due to insufficient competitiveness, excessive debt, and unfavourable demographic changes. The current crisis provides an opportunity to reflect on how economic models can be reoriented, for example towards digitalisation, environmental sustainability, investment in human capital, and a reduction in bureaucracy for businesses.

Stabilisation of Italy essential for the single currency

Although these issues affect, to varying degrees, each euro area Member State, including France and Germany, the main challenge to euro area stability is the development of the EU-19’s third largest economy, Italy. The impact of the pandemic has further worsened the economic situation of the country, and ambitious responses are now needed at the EU and euro area levels. In addition to the generous provision of concrete grants – not loans – it is a matter of skilfully engaging in dialogue on the necessary structural reforms and exerting political pressure from various sides: from the European Commission and the Eurogroup, but also from Berlin and Paris. A new EU strategy for Europe’s economic recovery and development until 2030, which could be adopted at the end of the German EU Council Presidency, would make sense here. It would make it possible to move away from the short-term focus on the immediate consequences of a pandemic. The decisive factor for its success, however, would be the willingness of the political class in Rome to take responsibility for serious reforms.

The pandemic could be a defining moment for the euro area. If this economic crisis – the most severe in decades – can be used as an opportunity for structural change that will reduce the level of mistrust between northern and southern Europe, the next logical step is the permanent joint issuance of bonds to stabilise the enormous increase in debt after the crisis. If the euro area fails on the reform path today, we will wake up tomorrow with more debt and face the same problems as before – but with less time and fewer instruments to deal with them.

This text was also published on fairobserver.com.

Klimakampen skal være en integreret del af udviklingssamarbejdet – DIIS-forskning ser på hvorfor og hvordan.

À l’heure où les pouvoirs publics se penchent au chevet de l’hôpital pour préparer un plan d’action dès cet été, nous appelons de nos vœux à une réflexion large pour repenser notre système de santé autour de trois piliers : les patients comme boussole de la réflexion, la sortie des corporatismes et des silos, et la nécessaire transformation digitale du système de santé.

Le discours de Mulhouse d’Emmanuel Macron a donné…

La chronologie

• 4 février : le premier cas de coronavirus en Belgique est confirmé. Il s'agit d'une femme qui fait partie des neufs Belges revenus de la ville de Wuhan en Chine.
• 11 mars : les trois premiers morts du coronavirus en Belgique sont annoncés, alors que l’OMS annonce une "pandémie mondiale".
• 12…

Depuis plusieurs semaines, d’étranges craquements se produisent dans le système en place autour de Bachar al-Assad.

Échange de messages entre Moscou et Damas

Tout d’abord, des articles inhabituels ont commencé à paraître début avril dans des médias russes : le régime de Damas, allié de la Russie, était présenté comme gangrené par la corruption, impuissant…

Nous accueillions le 30 avril dernier, dans le cadre d’un Webinar de l’Institut Montaigne, Christian Gollier, directeur de la Toulouse School of Economics, en échange avec Eric Chaney, notre conseiller économique. Comment organiser la période pour réussir au mieux le déconfinement entamé ? Voici les principaux points évoqués à cette occasion par nos deux intervenants.
 
Les projections des stratégies économiques et sanitaires de sortie de…

Se her hvor du stadig kan møde os, selvom DIIS fortsat er fysisk lukket

New book chapter explains the UN’s troubled position in the waning liberal order