Agrégateur de flux

Le journal d'Erasme propose une rubrique destinée à éclairer le lecteur sur les mécanismes de l'UEM ainsi que sur les réformes en cours en son sein. Cette rubrique prolonge celle du blog ...

Le journal d'Erasme propose une rubrique destinée à éclairer le lecteur sur les mécanismes de l'UEM ainsi que sur les réformes en cours en son sein. Cette rubrique prolonge celle du blog ...

Ce blog est destiné à informer les citoyens sur les grands sujets européens en leur permettant de mieux comprendre la construction et le fonctionnement de l'Union européenne, et de partager des...

Ce blog est destiné à informer les citoyens sur les grands sujets européens en leur permettant de mieux comprendre la construction et le fonctionnement de l'Union européenne, et de partager des...

Belgian FN FAL Automatic Rifle

Politique - Participez au sondage : La France doit-elle sortir de l'OTAN ?

Politique - Participez au sondage : La France doit-elle sortir de l'OTAN ?

Izraelben új rádiólokátorokkal látják el a Boeing F-15I vadászbombázókat. A hírek szerint az APG-70-ek a Raytheon APG-82(V)1 váltja majd le a Sasok orrában.

További Izraellel kapcsolatos hír, hogy a héten már kezdetét vette az első pilótanövendék oktatása az Aermacchi M-346 Lavi sugárhajtású kiképzőgépen. A Hatzerim légibázison ezzel egy négy évtizedes A-4 Skyhawk uralmat törtek meg, már ami a pilótaképzést illeti. Az első repülést természetesen több hetes felkészülés előzte meg, amit a realisztikus szimulátoron végzett feladatok tettek életszerűbbé.

Egy francia napilap, a La Tribune számolt be arról, hogy Egyiptom jelentős fegyverbeszerzésre készül Párizstól. A lap megbízhatónak mondott információi szerint két FREMM-osztályú fregatt mellett, 20 Rafale vadászbombázót tartalmazna a közel hat milliárd eurós fegyverbeszerzési megállapodás. A DCNS a hajókért 1,8 milliárd, míg a repülőgépeket gyártó Dassault 3,6 milliárd euróval lenne gazdagabb, de a mindkét üzletben érdekelt MBDA is jól járna.

Malajziában a még szolgálatban álló Sea King helikopterek további modernizálásáról született döntés. A helyiek által csak S61A-4 Nuri-nak hívott Sikorsky forgószárnyasok egy része már éjjellátó szemüvegekkel kompatibilis, színes kijelzőkkel ellátott pilótafülkét kapott, de a jövőben új farok- és főrotorlapátok, valamint reduktorok is felszerelésre kerülnének. Ezeket digitális adatátviteli rendszer, önvédelmi eszközök és páncélozás egészítené ki. Az 1967 és 1978 között 38 darabos mennyiségben rendszeresített, a 2012-ben tervezett kivonását alaposan túlélő típus 29 példánya jelenleg 3 századnál repül 2 VIP feladatokra használt AS-61N1-el közösen. Ezekből várhatólag 26 kerülhet modernizálásra, mivel a beszerzett 12 Eurocopter EC 725-ös kevésnek bizonyul a feladatok ellátására.

Január 15-én a 200000. landolást is végrehajtották a USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN 71) NIMITZ-osztályú repülőgép-hordozó fedélzetén.

Ez évnyarától Japánba kerül a USS CHANCELLORSVILLE (CG 62) TICONDEROGA-osztályú cirkáló. A hajóosztály egyik legmodernebb, jelenleg még San Diego-i anyakikötővel rendelkező egysége a folyamatosan az ázsiai országban állomásozó előretolt flottakötelékbe lesz besorolva.  

Novemberben egy sikeres kémelhárító akciót hajtottak végre az Egyesült Államokban. Az egyiptomi származású Musztafa Ahmed Awad mérnökként dolgozott az új USS GERALD R. FORD (CVN 78) repülőgép-hordozó építésénél. A 2007-ben egy amerikai nőt feleségül vevő és így amerikai állampolgárságot szerző mérnők készpénzért adott át titkos dokumentumokat az egyiptomi hírszerzésnek a készülő egységről. Awad úgy tudta, hogy az általa megszerzett információk Kína, Oroszország, vagy Irán számára is továbbadásra kerülhetnek. Lebukása mellett az is hidegzuhanyként érhette, hogy az egyiptomi hírszerzés helyett valójában az FBI-nak dolgozott, akik ezzel a csapdával tették próbára hűségét új hazája iránt.

Felszállási tilalom alatt állnak a kolumbiai légierő Kfir C.10-es vadászbombázói. A típussal december 31-én történt egy baleset, akkor kis magasságban állt le az egyik gép hajtóműve, amiből a pilóta biztonságosan katapultált. A baleset kivizsgálása már kizárta madárral való ütközés lehetőségét. Most az izraeli IAI Lahav által átépített J79-GE J1EQD hajtóműveket vizsgálják át. Ezek az F-104G és az F-4E és F gépekből ismert változatok 8120 kg-os maximális tólóereje helyett már 8500 kg-os tolóerővel rendelkeznek. A kolumbiaiak szeretnék amerikai szakértők segítségét is igénybe venni a hajtóművek ellenőrzése során.

Helyben a CIAC repülőgépgyár segítségével hajtják végre a T-27 Tucano kiképzőgépek modernizálását és üzemidő-hosszabbítását Kolumbiában. A Caman projekt 14 gépet érint, ennek során digitális kijelzőkkel váltják fel a pilótafülke analóg műszereit, valamint nagyjavításra kerül a sárkányszerkezet is. Ennek köszönhetően az 1980 és 1990 között gyártott gépek üzemideje további 20 évvel lesz hosszabb.

Brazíliában megkezdték a harmadik SCORPENE 2000 osztályú dízel-elektromos tengeralattjáró építését is. A TONELERO (S 42) első acéllemezének vágása egy 2020-ban befejeződő építési folyamat első lépése volt. Testvérhajói közül a RIACHUELO (S 40) 2018-ban, a HUMAITÁ (S 41) 2019-ben, az ANGOSTURA (S 43) 2022-ben készül el.

 

NETARZENÁL GALÉRIA

LTV TA-7C Corsair II.

Saab AJ37 Viggen.

General Dynamics F-111E Aardvark.

Dassault Mirage IIIE.

Boeing AH-64D Apache Longbow.

Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet.

Lockheed Martin F-16C Fighting Falcon.

Sikorsky CH-53A Yasur 2025.

McDonnell Douglas F-4M Phantom FGR.2.

Grumman F-14A Tomcat.

Dassault Mirage IIIRS.

LTV Aerospace A-7D Corsair II.

Aerospatiale SA-330S1 Puma.

Your browser does not support the video tag.

The video shows a single, fully armed Russian Air Force Su-27 Flanker jet as it intercepts and shadows a P-3 Orion, reportedly flying over the Baltics. This unclassified video was filmed in November 2014 by “one of the sensors carried by a Portuguese Air Force P-3 Orion MPA – Maritime Patrol Aircraft – during a mission over the Baltic Sea.” It’s pretty standard for the Russian Air Force to launch a single fighter jet to identify and escort NATO surveillance planes. This video proves that even the Russians keep an eye on NATO, as well as non-NATO states' surveillance- and intelligence-gathering activities in the region.

Source

Novi Pazarban, a szerbiai muzulmánok fellegvárának, Szandzsáknak a legnagyobb városában a pénteki imádkozás után ötezren vonultak az utcára,  Mohamed prófétát éltető transzparensekkel és Allah Akbar-felkiáltásokkal. Irfan Malić helyi imám tartott beszédet. Elmondta, hogy az iszlám békés vallás, ám nem terroristák voltak az újságírókat lemészárlók, hanem merénylők.

[...] Bővebben!

Autiste ! Sourde ! Aveugle ! Irréfléchie ! Aliénée ! Abandonnée à des objectifs et intérêts étrangers à tout projet politique durable et partageable à la fois par la majorité de ses propres citoyens et par celle de ses grands partenaires internationaux...

Autiste ! Sourde ! Aveugle ! Irréfléchie ! Aliénée ! Abandonnée à des objectifs et intérêts étrangers à tout projet politique durable et partageable à la fois par la majorité de ses propres citoyens et par celle de ses grands partenaires internationaux...

Provides overview, key facts and events, timelines and leader profiles along with current news about Equatorial Guinea

Présentation :
Cet ouvrage de 278 pages tout en quadrichromie est composé d'une centaine de cartes accompagnées de leurs notices-commentaires.
Il s'agit d'un exceptionnel outil de documentation et de référence construit à partir des cours que Bernard Lugan dispense à l'Ecole de Guerre et aux Ecoles de Saint-Cyr Coëtquidan.
Il est composé de deux parties. Dans la première sont étudiés les conflits et les crises actuels ; la seconde traite de ceux de demain.
Sa vocation est d'être  directement utilisable par tous ceux, civils et militaires qui sont concernés par l'Afrique.

La table des matières de l'ouvrage est indiquée ci-dessous.
Vous pouvez trouver l'exemple d'une carte et de sa notice :






























IMPORTANT : Cet ouvrage est exclusivement disponible auprès de l'Afrique Réelle.

Prix :
- 45€ (livraison colissimo et TVA compris)
- 47€ pour livraison Suisse/UE
- 50€ pour livraison monde
- Pour toute commande à partir de 5 exemplaires, 37€ par exemplaire.

Pour le commander, deux possibilités :

1) Par carte bleue ou Paypal

Livraison France €42,65 EUR Europe €44,55 EUR Monde €47,39 EUR
2) Par chèque, avec ce bon de commande :
















Table des matières

Première partie : les guerres d'aujourd'hui

I- Présentation

- La conflictualité africaine en 2014 (carte)
- La conflictualité africaine en 2014 (notice)
- Les guerres africaines de 1960 à aujourd'hui (notice)
- Les guerres africaines de 1970 à 2000 (carte)
- Les frontières sont-elles la cause des conflits africains? (notice)
- L'Afrique politique (carte)
- L'Afrique, un continent qui s'arme (notice)
- Les 12 premiers budgets militaires africains en 2013-2014 (carte)

II- Définitions et constantes

- La terre et l’eau (notice)
- La végétation (carte)
- Le pastoralisme et ses problèmes (notice)
- L'Afrique entre le désert et la forêt (carte)
- La géopolitique de la mer (notice)
- L'Afrique enclavée (carte)
- Les langues et les populations (notice)
- L'Afrique ethno-linguistique (carte)
- La question religieuse (notice)
- Les religions (carte)
- L'Afrique francophone (carte)
- L'Afrique anglophone (carte)
- Economie: l'état des lieux (notice)
- Les cinq pays africains les moins performants (carte)
- Les dix pays africains les plus performants (carte)
- La géopolitique du pétrole et du gaz (notice)
- Pétrole et gaz en Afrique sud-saharienne (carte)
- La géopolitique du pétrole dans l'espace saharo-soudanais (notice)
- La géopolitique du pétrole enclavé (carte)

III- Les Afriques embrasées

A- L'Afrique du Nord

- Les "printemps arabes" entre mythe et réalité (notice)
- Les "printemps arabes" au Maghreb et au Machrek (1 carte)
- La désintégration de la Libye (notice)
- La Libye ethnique et tribale (carte)
- Les confédérations tribales de Libye (carte)
- Les alliances tribales  de Libye (notice)
- La guerre de Libye (mars-octobre 2011) (carte)
- Libye:pétrole et gaz (carte)
- La Libye:porte d'entrée du Sahara (carte)
- Les Berbères de Libye, acteurs essentiels de la guerre civile (notice)
- La contagion libyenne (carte et notice)

B- Le Sahel

- Les guerres du Sahel (notice)
- L'espace sahélo-soudanais: un archipel de conflits (carte)
- Le Sahel (carte)
- Les grandes définitions (notice)
- Les quatre grands verrous de la zone sahélo-saharienne (carte)
- Les quatre principaux peuples du Sahara (carte)
- Maures,Touareg,Toubou et Zaghawa (notice)
- La complémentarité entre l' Afrique du Nord et le Sahel (notice)
- Les relations entre l'Afrique du Nord et le Sahel à l'époque précoloniale (carte)
- Le Maroc dans sa plus grande extension (XVII°-XVIII° siècles) (carte)
- La zone sahélo-saharienne: un monde de tradition jihadiste (notice)
- Le Sahel: un monde de Jihad (carte)
- Le Sahel, plaque tournante du trafic de la cocaïne (notice)
- La cocaïne et l'"autoroute n°10" (carte)
- La question du Mali ( notice)
- Mali : les trois Azawad (carte)

C- La région Tchad-Nigeria

- Le verrou tchadien et ses fragilités (notice)
- Le verrou tchadien (carte)
- Les ethnies du Tchad (carte)
- Les trois Tchad (carte)
- Le Nigeria, un mastodonte éclaté (notice)
- Le Nigeria et la guerre de Boko Haram (carte)
- Les deux Nigeria (carte)
- La guerre de Boko Haram (notice)

D- L'Afrique orientale et la Corne

- L'Afrique orientale (carte)
- La géopolitique de la Corne de l'Afrique (notice)
- L'Ethiopie et ses périphéries (carte)
- Soudan: la Nubie contre ses périphéries ( notice)
- Les guerres du Soudan (carte)
- Soudan: un pays éclaté (carte)
- Les principales tribus non "arabes" du Darfour (carte)
- La guerre du Darfour (notice)
- Les guerres de Somalie (notice)
- La guerre de Somalie (carte)
- Le Somaliland, poumon de l'Ethiopie? (carte)
- La question du Somaliland (notice)
- Les guerres ethniques du Kenya (notice)
- Le Kenya ethnique (carte)
- La mosaïque ethnique du Kenya (carte)
- Le Kenya, le terrorisme somalien et le Jubaland (notice)
- La question du Jubaland (carte)

E- L'Afrique centrale et la région interlacustre

- L'arc de crise de l'Afrique centrale (carte)
- La guerre ethnique du Soudan du Sud (notice)
- Soudan du Sud: la mosaïque des populations nilotiques (carte)
- La géopolitique de la région interlacustre (notice)
- La région interlacustre ou " l'Afrique de la vache et de la lance" (carte)
- L'interminable guerre du Kivu (notice)
- Le Kivu (carte)
- Le Nord Kivu (carte)
- RDC: la zone d'influence du Rwanda (carte)
- Centrafrique: d'une guerre ethnique à une guerre religieuse (notice)
- La conquête de la République centrafricaine par la Séléka (carte)

Deuxième partie : les guerres de demain

- Est-il possible de prévoir les futurs conflits africains ? (notice)
- Les zones de conflits futurs (carte)

I- Les principaux conflits ethniques en sommeil

1- La Guinée

- La Guinée menacée par son ethnocratie (notice)
- Langues et peuples de Guinée (carte)
- Les élections  présidentielles de 2010, résultats nationaux (carte)
- Les élections présidentielles de 2010, résultat nationaux (notice)

2- La Côte d'Ivoire

- Côte d'Ivoire : tous les problèmes demeurent (notice)
- La Côte d'Ivoire point de rupture de la tectonique ethnique de l'Ouest-africain atlantique (carte)
- Les peuples de Côte d'Ivoire (carte)
- La population de Côte d'Ivoire (carte)
- Résultats du deuxième tour des élections présidentielles de 2010 (carte)
- Les religions de Côte d'Ivoire (carte)

3- La RDC

- La République démocratique du Congo (carte)
- Les menaces d'éclatement de la RDC (notice)
- RDC : les cinq principales ethnies (carte)
- Les langues véhiculaires en RDC (carte)
- L'ethno-fédéralisme de la RDC (carte)

4- L'Ituri

- La question de l'Ituri n'est pas réglée (notice)
- Les populations de l'Ituri (carte)

5- L'Ethiopie

- La mosaïque ethnique éthiopienne peut-elle tenir ? (notice)
- Les ethnies d'Ethiopie (carte)
- Les ethnies d'Ethiopie (tableau)

6- L'Ouganda

- L'Ouganda et sa question ethnique (notice)
- Ouganda: les trois grandes populations (carte)

7- Le Mozambique

- Le Mozambique, un pays coupé en deux (notice)
- Le Mozambique ethnique (carte)
- Mozambique: les élections de 1994 (carte)

8- La Casamance

- Casamance et Guinée Bissau: la question Diola (carte)
- La question de la Casamance (notice)

II- Les conflits frontaliers potentiels

1- Le Sahara occidental

- La question du Sahara occidental (notice)
- Le contentieux territorial entre le Maroc et l'Algérie (carte)
- La guerre du Sahara occidental (carte)

2- Le Soudan

- La guerre des deux Soudan aura-t-elle lieu ? (notice)
- Les deux Soudan (carte)
- Le pétrole des deux Soudan (carte)

3- Ethiopie-Erythrée : la guerre est-elle inévitable ? (notice)

- L'enclavement de l'Ethiopie (carte)

4- Le pétrole du lac Albert peut-il provoquer un conflit régional ? (notice)

- Photos

5- Le pipe line de Lamu : un projet crisogène ? (notice)

- Les projets de désenclavement pétrolier du Soudan du Sud et de l'Ouganda (carte)

6- Gabon-Guinée Equatoriale: la question  de Mbagné (carte)

- Ghana-Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon-Guinée équatoriale: de futurs pétro-conflits ? (notice)
- Le contentieux pétrolier Ghana-Côte d'Ivoire (carte)

7- Une guerre pour les eaux du Nil est-elle possible ?

- Le bassin du Nil (carte)

III- Autres questions crisogènes

- Algérie: la crise de fond va-t-elle se transformer en révolution ? (notice)
- L'Algérie des islamistes (carte)
- La démographie va conduire à la guerre (notice)
- La population en 2014 (carte)
- La population mondiale (carte)
- La question berbère pourrait-elle prendre la forme d'une seconde décolonisation ? (notice)
- Les berbérophones aujourd'hui (carte)

IV- Afrique du Sud : l' "arc-en ciel" avant le tsunami ? 

- Le naufrage économique sud-africain va-t-il déboucher sur un chaos social et racial ? (notice)
- Le secteur minier fait couler l'économie  (notice)
- Les principaux gisements miniers sud-africains (carte)
- Le délitement de la fragile mosaïque raciale sud-africaine (notice)
- Les quatre grands blocs ethniques sud-africains (carte)
- Les évolutions démographiques sud-africaines (notice)
- Evolution de la population sud-africaine de 1899 à 2013 (tableau)
- La population par province en 2007 (carte)
- La population par province en 2013 (carte)
- Les Blancs face à un apartheid à rebours (notice)
- Le changement de population dans la région du Cap entre 1994 et 2013 (tableau)

From Arlene Kushner:
January 22, 2015
Seeking Sparks of Light

I’m going to do something different today: Start with good news items.  We need to hear that good news, with all the clouds hanging over us. 

The first is the matter of Israeli-Japanese relations, which have blossomed astonishingly in the past year.  This is true in the areas of diplomatic relations, industrial and scientific technology and trade.  On Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived here for a three-day visit (which ultimately had to be cut short because of an ISIS hostage situation he had to contend with at home).  And it was on Sunday that Prime Minister Netanyahu, referring to the Islamization of Europe, spoke about the need to increase Asian markets. He spoke as well about the “historic opportunity” to join Israeli and Japanese capabilities for mutual benefit.


Abe brought with him 100 Japanese diplomatic and business leaders; he and Netanyahu attended a forum on science and business.


Credit: Marc Israel Sellem/Jpost

And so the essential lesson here is that we are not alone as a nation, and we should not imagine that the world begins and ends with Europe.

~~~~~~~~~~

And then we have the absolutely remarkable speech of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of just weeks ago.  It is possible that you have not heard about this, and I am, quite frankly, remiss for not having shared it sooner.

C
Credit: Reuters/Philippe Wojazer

~~~~~~~~~~

Egypt is an astonishment in any event.  When Mubarak was ousted in June 2012, and the Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Morsi became president, it seemed the handwriting was on the wall for Egypt, as the grip of the Brotherhood waxed ever tighter.  But then, in July 2013, the military took over, and a Brotherhood-hating al-Sisi subsequently morphed from general to president, surprising many and turning the tide in a manner that has been significant for Israel.  He has, for example, acted decisively in many spheres against Hamas – a Brotherhood spinoff - in Gaza.

On December 28, 2014, an extraordinarily courageous al-Sisi spoke in Al-Azhar University, in Cairo, to key Islamic clerics and academics.  He differentiated between core Islamic beliefs and an overlay of ideology or “thinking” that has been destructive.  His tone was calm and reasoned, not frenzied.  In part, he said (emphasis added):

“It’s inconceivable that the thinking that we hold most sacred should cause the entire umma (multinational community of Muslim believers) to be a source of anxiety, danger, killing and destruction for the rest of the world.  Impossible!

“That thinking – I am not saying ‘religion’ but ‘thinking’ – that corpus of texts and ideas that we have sacralized over the years, to the point that departing from them has become almost impossible, is antagonizing the entire world. It’s antagonizing the entire world!

“Is it possible that 1.6 billion [Muslims] should want to kill the rest of the world’s inhabitants – that is 7 billion – so that they themselves may live? Impossible!…

“I say and repeat again that we are in need of a religious revolution. You, imams, are responsible before Allah. The entire world, I say it again, the entire world is waiting for your next move…because this umma is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost – and it is being lost by our own hands."
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/189700#.VMDybZv9nIU

~~~~~~~~~~

Here you have a MEMRI clip of his talk:




~~~~~~~~~~

I also count as very good news the invitation that has now been extended to Prime Minister Netanyahu by Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) to address the joint houses of Congress in February on the issues of Islamic extremism and Iran.  This is an expression of very solid support for Israel within Congress, and marks a readiness by America’s elected representatives to take seriously what our prime minister has to say about these issues.


Credit: USA Today

Netanyahu promptly accepted. 

~~~~~~~~~~

Obama’s nose was seriously out of joint because of this invitation.  It was a breach of protocol, intoned White House press secretary Josh Earnst.  Protocol, he said, would require Israel to inform the president of potential plans to visit the country before proceeding with an acceptance. 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/white-house-invite-to-netanyahu-a-breach-of-protocol/

But the key source of irritation, I would imagine, was the failure of Boehner to consult the president before proceeding with the invitation.  Obama was, quite simply, out of the loop.  It is, of course, very much to the point that this invitation followed on the heels of Obama’s State of the Union Address, which left many in Congress severely disgruntled.  And that Obama knows he will not be pleased with what Netanyahu will say.

~~~~~~~~~~

Binyamin Netanyahu has consistently promoted a position of strong sanctions against Iran, to use as leverage in negotiations.  This is a position that he will undoubtedly reiterate in Washington. 

It runs directly counter to Obama’s position – stated once again in his State of the Union address this week - that he would veto any sanctions bill advanced by Congress because of the splendid progress he is making in negotiations.

http://www.algemeiner.com/2015/01/20/obama-pledges-to-veto-iran-sanctions-bill-in-state-of-the-union-address/

I hope to return to this deplorable situation for a closer examination.

But today, a report surfaced in Bloomberg News claiming that the Mossad disagrees with Netanyahu.  It indicated that Mossad officials advised US senators who were visiting Israel recently to hold off on further Iran sanctions, because they would hamper efforts to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear program.

The appearance of this report – presumably authoritative – shortly before Netanyahu is scheduled to address Congress had the immediate effect of undercutting him.

~~~~~~~~~~

Now the head of the Mossad has taken the unusual action of issuing a public denial of this report (emphasis added):

“Mossad Head Tamir Pardo met on January 19, 2015, with a delegation of US senators.  The meeting was held at the request of the senators and with the prime minister’s approval. At the meeting, the Head of the Mossad stressed the extraordinary effectiveness of the sanctions that have been placed on Iran for several years in bringing Iran to the negotiating table.

“The Head of the Mossad noted that in negotiating with Iran, a policy of ‘carrots and sticks’ must be adopted, and there are not enough ‘sticks’ nowadsays.”
Additionally, according to the Mossad statement, Pardo “said specifically that the agreement that is being formed with Iran is bad and could lead to a regional arms race.”

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/190349#.VMEZ5Zv9nIU

~~~~~~~~~~

And so what is going on here? The Obama administration – furious about the invitation to Netanyahu and concerned about his message – was playing dirty.  Out-and-out lying, actually.  Presumably not anticipating that the Mossad would come forward and directly counter what was “leaked.”

~~~~~~~~~~

More apparent disinformation on another matter:

After the attack on the convoy in the Golan, which took out high level Hezbollah and Iranian personnel, Reuters came out with a story that a security source in Israel said the military had no idea that an Iranian general was being targeted -  that it was simply thought that some guerrillas were in the convoy. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/20/us-mideast-crisis-israel-syria-idUSKBN0KT1HQ20150120

I, of course, do not know who the “source” was, but this seemed blatantly an attempt on someone’s part to partially defuse a volatile situation, or to downplay Israel’s accomplishment.  Whatever the case, this “report” was carried broadly. 

Now here I cite from Al-Arabiya, as reported in IMRA (emphasis added):

”[The attack] is also one of the biggest losses inflicted on Hezbollah by Israel in recent years...
“Analysts, speaking to Al-Arabiya News, said the attack represented a major breach to Hezbollah’s security and a tactical misjudgment on the part of the Iranian-backed militant group.

“’This was a colossal failure … because they [Hezbollah] put this number of senior figures in one spot and at the same observation point and at the same time,” Wehbe Katicha, a former Lebanese army general, told Al Arabiya News.

“’You rarely see armies committing such a mistake,’ he said.

“This is represents a weak point of Hezbollah because of this behavior,” he added.

“While not describing it as a failure, Dr. Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, said the incident was a ‘major security breach’ to Hezbollah’s security apparatus.

“’Hezbollah moves secretly and a number of ranking officials are even tighter. The fact is Israel had information from within,’ he said.”
http://imra.org.il/story.php3?id=66152

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I started with the good news, and must end with bad:  There was a terror attack in Tel Aviv yesterday morning, when an Arab from Tulkarem, in Samaria, boarded a bus and attacked passengers and the driver with a knife, seriously injuring four.  We are grateful that no one was killed.

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Three-stabbed-on-Tel-Aviv-bus-388417

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© Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by Arlene Kushner, functioning as an independent journalist. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution. 

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Technorati Tag: Israel and Japan and Congress and Shinzo Abe.

Brazilian Agrale Marrua Light Utility Vehicle

Ce cours, offert par le GCSP, grâce à la subvention du Département de la Défense, de la Protection de la Population et des Sports de la Suisse, sera organisé en partenariat avec l’Etat-major général des Armées du Sénégal et le Centre des Hautes Etudes de Défense et de Sécurité (CHEDS), et pourra compter sur la contribution des Forces Armées Suisses.

Les objectifs du cours sont:
• de consolider les compétences et la compréhension des participants sur des thèmes spécifiques liés à la politique de sécurité internationale
• d’assurer une base solide pour leurs futurs défis professionnels en tant qu’attachés de défense
• de familiariser les futurs attachés de défense au travail multilatéral et multiculturel

Since I wrote my previous post for Oxford Analytica several months ago, additional information has come out about what is contained in Russia’s shipbuilding program — which reportedly includes a naval development plan going out to 2050. Today, Konstantin Bogdanov at Lenta.ru has published a major update on these plans. The following is based on his article and on conversations with other Russian naval experts.

Submarines

Strategic nuclear deterrence will remain the number one mission of the Russian Navy. As the three remaining Delta IIIs will be retired in the next five years and the six Delta IVs in the 2020s, Russia expects to replace them with a total of 12 Borei SSBNs. Eight are already contracted to be built in the next few years, with another four expected to be ordered in the next decade. The new subs are likely to be an updated version of the current Borei II subclass, with improved electronics and other updated components. The navy plans to locate six in the Northern Fleet and six in the Pacific Fleet.

There has been a great deal of controversy over the Yasen SSGN class, which was initially expected to replace both Oscar class SSGNs and various classes of smaller multi-purpose SSNs. Eight have been ordered so far and there is some debate on whether an additional four Yasen subs will be ordered for construction after 2020. This will depend on whether the cost of serial production can be brought down and on the success of the just started modernization of Oscar class SSGNs (which is expected to extend these subs’ lifespan by 15-20 years). The goal is to have a total of 12 SSGNs, again with six each in the Northern and Pacific Fleets.

However, there is now a plan to develop a new multi-purpose nuclear submarine class, with the goal of building something cheaper and smaller than the Yasen class. This would be an attack submarine with decreased missile armament, comparable to the American Virginia class. The navy hopes to begin construction of these subs as early as 2016, with the goal of building a total of 16-18 of them, with at least 15 completed by 2035. These submarines would be armed with 16 (4×4) VLS, 4-6 torpedo tubes, updated Kalibr missiles and Tsirkon missiles (which will replace Oniks).

As far as diesel submarines, no more Improved Kilo class submarines will be built after the current contract of six for the Black Sea Fleet is completed. Instead the navy is planning to order a new class of diesel-electric submarines that will in essence be a modernized version of the Lada class, with air-independent propulsion. The goal is to build 14-18 of these subs over a 15 year period, though mainly in the 2020s. These subs will have armaments analogous to the Lada class, though some may be optimized for special operations, with airlocks for swimmers. They will be build primarily at Admiralty Shipyards, though Krasnoe Sormovo may also be involved in the project. The second and third Lada hulls will also be completed, most likely in 2017.

Surface ships

The community of Russian naval experts has in recent months yet again been consumed by the question of whether the navy should build aircraft carriers and, if so, what kind? Bogdanov writes that construction of a carrier could begin no earlier than 2020 and would carry substantial financial and technical risks. The prospective carrier would be a descendant of the never finished Ulianovsk class aircraft carrier, with a deadweight of 65,000-80,000 tons and could carry 55-60 aircraft. The planes would probably be a naval version of the T-50 fifth generation fighter plane, as well as some long-range AWACS aircraft that would be more effective than existing Ka-31 helicopters. The prospective carrier would have air defense and ASW capabilities, but no strike armaments of its own.

Russian experts have noted that Russian shipyards could build a 60,000-70,000 ton carrier in 4-5 years, but could have difficulties if the military decides to build a larger supercarrier. One problem is the lack of a suitably large drydock, as Soviet carriers were built at Nikolayev, Ukraine. A small carrier (less than 60,000 tons) could be built at Baltiiskii Zavod, but the military does not want such a design. If the navy wants to avoid the delays that would come from having to build new construction facilities,  one option that has been floated for building a large carrier is to build two halves at Baltiiskii Zavod and the Vyborg shipyard, and then connect them afloat at Sevmash.

The navy is likely to build eight more Admiral Gorshkov class frigates, in addition to the eight already under contract, as well as a total of 20 corvettes of various versions. Three Admiral Grigorovich class frigates may also be built, in addition to the six currently under construction for the Black Sea Fleet. All of these ships are being armed with Oniks anti-ship missiles and Kalibr multi-purpose missiles, which can both be fired through universal vertical launch systems. The main question here is the extent to which the program for construction of these ships will be delayed due to the shift in turbine production that has resulted from the end of military industrial cooperation between Russia and Ukraine. Most Russian experts believe that two years will be sufficient to set up production of turbines in Russia, though the actual extent of the delay is likely to be clear by the middle of this year. In any case, Russia is believed to have already received turbines for the first four ships of each of these classes.

The navy is planning to begin production of large destroyers (15,000 tons) that some consider to be essentially missile cruisers in all but name. It has not been decided whether these ships will have nuclear or gas turbine propulsion systems. They will have a wide range of both offensive and defense armaments, including Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missiles and a naval version of the S-500 long-range air defense system, both of which are expected to be ready by the mid-2020s. The hope is to have the first ship of this class ready by 2023-25 and to eventually build a total of at least 12 (though other analysts believe that construction of these destroyers won’t begin before 2023).

A number of modernization projects are also in the works. Cruiser modernization is now under way, with the Admiral Nakhimov Kirov class cruiser scheduled to be ready for active duty in 2018 after the replacement of all of its armaments and electronic components. The Peter the Great cruiser may be modernized in a similar fashion once the Nakhimov’s refit is complete. Two or three Slava class cruisers will also be modernized in the next few years. Five to seven Udaloy class destroyers may also be modernized, with new armaments and universal vertical launch systems, while the largely useless Sovremennyi class destroyers will finally be retired as replacing their defective propulsion systems is considered unrealistic.

Regardless of the final resolution of the saga with the procurement of Mistral class amphibious ships from France, the navy is also planning to replace all existing amphibious ships with new classes. Specifically, it plans to build a new LPD type amphibious ship, similar to the Dutch Rotterdam class with a displacement of 14-16,000 tons and able to carry 500-600 naval infantry, six helicopters, and various amphibious vehicles. The goal is to have 2-3 such ships each in the Northern and Pacific Fleets, with construction to start late in this decade. In addition, progress is being made in the long-running construction saga of the Ivan Gren amphibious ship, with the lead ship expected to be commissioned in 2015 after more than ten years of construction. Previous delays were caused by irregular financing and frequent changes in design specifications. With the latter now pretty much set, subsequent ships can be expected to be built much faster as long as the financing is available. The goal is to have eight such ships, four each in the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets.

A brief assessment

As always with Russian military construction plans, this program sounds quite grandiose. And if it is fully implemented, the Russian navy will be back as a full-fledged oceangoing force by the end of the next decade. However, it seems to me that given their current capacities Russian shipyards will not be able to carry out the entire plan in the expected timelines. Furthermore, there is a big question over the ability of the Russian state to finance such a program given the economic difficulties that it is likely to face in the next several years. Over the last several years, we have seen repeated delays with the construction of new ship types even when the economic situation was much more positive and the ships being built much smaller and simpler than destroyers and aircraft carriers. The recently-completed long-running saga with the modernization of the Vikramaditya aircraft carrier for the Indian Navy shows the problems that Russia may face as it starts to build larger and more complex ships.

Nevertheless, it is clear that while the Russian Navy has resigned itself to focus on strategic deterrence and coastal defense missions in the short and medium terms, it still has ambitions of restoring its blue water navy in the long term.