The National Interest

Peter Suciu

B-1 Lancer, Americas

The bomber can't be enlarged, but efforts are underway to "supersize" its carriage capabilities.

Here's What You Need to Know: The U.S. Air Force still expects to fly the B-1B into the early 2030s.

(This article first appeared in December 2020.)

The U.S. Air Force's B-1B Lancer bomber can't be enlarged, but efforts are now underway to "supersize" its carriage capabilities. Last month one of the Cold War-era bombers took part in an external captive carry flight over the skies of Edwards Air Force Base, and that demonstration could pave the way for the B-1B to carry hypersonic weapons externally.

The flight test involved a B-1B Lancer assigned to the 412th Test Wing's 419th Flight Test Squadron, Global Power Combined Test Force, during which the bomber carried an inert Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) under an external pylon for the first time.

"Adapting a small number of our healthiest B-1s to carry hypersonic weapons is vital to bridge between the bomber force we have today, to the force of tomorrow," said Gen. Timothy Ray, commander of Air Force Global Strike Command. "This is a major step forward in our global precision fires capability and it is important we pursue these technologies to remain ahead of our competitors. My goal is to have a limited number of B-1s modified to become the roving linebacker of the western Pacific and the North Atlantic."

For the Air Force, the captive carry flight was the culmination of the numerous ground tests that began last year with an expanded carriage demonstration. It included a modified internal bomb bay, which featured a moveable bulkhead. Last month's test flight at Edwards Air Force Base further demonstrated a configuration of the B-1 that could allow the aircraft to carry larger-sized weapons both internally and externally.

"We're essentially displaying our external weapons carriage capability," added Maj. Bret Cunningham, a B-1B test pilot with the 419th FLTS. "We have a JASSM weapon on what is traditionally the targeting pod pylon on the forward right hard point, so we are demonstrating that the B-1 has the capability to carry weapons and employ them externally."

The B-1B, which was produced from 1983-1988, was designed with three internal weapons bays with an internal payload of 75,000 pounds, as well as with a movable bulkhead and usable external hardpoints for its original nuclear mission. The maximum external weapons payload could include an additional 59,000 pounds – however, the United States shifted the aircraft's mission to conventional weapons in 1994. That physical conversion to conventional-only armaments started in 2007 with the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), and the modifications were completed in 2011.

Adapting the Old War Bird

The recent extensive engineering review could now help the Air Force understand where it needs to focus to maintain the aging warbird as a multi-mission weapon system, which could lay the groundwork for the integration of future weapons on the aircraft.

The Air Force still expects the B-1B to fly off in the sunset, or at least be retired from service by the early 2030s, but it needs the aging bomber to remain operational for current threats. It could still be sometime before its replacement, the B-21 Raider, is fully operational. In the meantime, the B-1B continues to be updated and adapted for the changing geopolitical situation.

The current expanded carriage demonstration will thus be able to keep the aircraft compliant with the New START agreement, which means the B-1 can still be utilized to deliver convention weapons. The proposed increase in capacity with the external carriage could also be a force multiplier of sorts as two bombers would equal three bombers worth of weapons.

"Since the long-bay demo last year, this has really been our key focus point in 2020; getting ready for this external weapons-release demo as kind of the next step in that progression towards external weapons carriage and hypersonic capabilities for the B-1," Cunningham said. "We're pretty close to the culmination of this demo event and reaching that next milestone."

Following the recent captive carry mission, engineers will review the data before moving on to the next phase of testing, which will be an external weapons release.

"For us, we're looking to do this safely since this is the first time we will release a weapon from the external hard point in over 30 years," said Agustin Martinez, project test lead. "So, we focused on doing a safe build-up approach … to make sure the JASSM and the B-1 are communicating correctly; the JASSM has correct surface deployment timelines. Once it does get released, it will safely separate."

The U.S. Air Force has continued to keep its B-1B bomber fleet updated and upgraded. In September, an eight-year-long project to install the Integrated Battle Station (IBS) on the bombers was completed ahead of schedule. A total of sixty of the late Cold War-era aircraft went through the modification process, which began in late 2012. It was reported to be the largest and most complicated modification performed to date on the B-1 and it gave the flight deck a completely new look.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear, including A Gallery of Military Headdress.

This article first appeared in December 2020.

Image: U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Airmen Corey Hook

Kris Osborn

Iran, Middle East

Iranian provocateurs may not be familiar with substantial upgrades the Navy has made to its patrol fleet in recent years.

Iran is once again exhibiting threatening and provocative behavior in the Strait of Hormuz. The country has used its small boats to flex its military prowess as U.S. and Coast Guard ships recently transited the area.

As many as thirteen Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy fast-in-shore attack craft came within just several hundred yards of a small contingent of U.S. Navy and U.S. Coast Guard ships transiting the region, traveling at dangerous speeds greater than thirty-three knots, according to a Navy report.

What seems significant about the most recent incident on May 10 is that Iran reacted poorly to the presence of only one large U.S. Navy warship, a guided-missile cruiser, and smaller Coast Guard and Navy patrol craft. The ships were guiding or leading the well-known SSGN USS Georgia, a guided-missile cruiser, through the region.

Did the Iranians think they could successfully intimate smaller Navy patrol craft—especially since they are not large warships? Certainly, the Iranians know that the Navy coastal ships are armed; however, Iranian provocateurs may be less familiar with substantial upgrades the Navy has made to its patrol fleet in recent years, equipping them with a much greater degree of lethality, weaponry and attack range, in part to address and deter this kind of small-boat threat.

In recent years, the Navy has been arming its patrol ships with Raytheon-built Griffin B surface-launched, laser-guided missiles able to hit targets four kilometers away. The idea is to give the 179-foot long, shallow-water patrol ships the ability to destroy targets at ranges farther than their onboard guns can reach, Therefore, a Griffin-armed ship would be in a position to target and destroy approaching Iranian small boats at much greater standoff ranges and with much higher assured destruction.

Extended-range offensive firepower is intended to give the patrol ships enhanced surface warfare technology to position the craft for modern surface and shallow water threats. Laser-guided Griffin missiles, reaching what Raytheon developers describe as “beyond gun range,” give the boats the ability to strike threats such as swarming small boats at greater standoff distances. The attack capability enhancements, fortified by advanced sensors, better enable patrol ships to simultaneously address multiple threats or respond to approaching enemy fire more quickly. The Griffin can provide 360-degree coverage for the ship.

The weapons adjustments are particularly well suited for the Navy’s 5th Fleet area of operations, which covers much of the Middle East including flashpoint areas such as the Straits of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy is certainly no stranger to these kinds of Iranian provocations in the area, as it is something Iranian small boats have done on multiple occasions.

The Navy upgrades also include unmanned aerial surveillance systems for 5th Fleet’s patrol ships, Navy officials said several years ago. This brings the prospect of networking intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets with targeting sensors and weapons to improve attack possibilities by relaying targeting information across longer distances. The Mk 52 7.62-millimeter and MK 38 25-millimeter guns are also being upgraded.

The sweeping patrol ship modernization overhaul is intended to extend the service life of the 1990s-era ship fleet into the mid-2020s and beyond. The expected service life of a patrol ship is roughly thirty years

The Griffin employs a dual-mode navigational technology using semi-active laser technology and a GPS-aided Inertial Navigation System, according to Raytheon developers.

The weapons upgrade process begins with the installation of the launcher and weapons control system, Forward-Looking Infra-Red Systems’ BRITE Star II sensor/laser designator, and Raytheon’s Griffin B (Block II) missile, Navy officials said.

The twenty-five-foot wide patrol ships have an eight-foot draft and can reach speeds up to thirty-five knots. With a crew of twenty-eight, the ships are equipped to stay at sea for periods up to ten days. Many patrol ships stationed at 5th fleet headquarters in Bahrain are equipped with enhanced communication suites, improved navigation systems and an improved diesel engine control system. They also have two stabilized, electro-optic twenty-five-millimeter gun mounts, Navy data explains. 

Kris Osborn is the defense editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a master’s degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Image: Reuters

Stephen Silver

Tucker Carlson Gasoline,

"From that monologue, Tucker Carlson’s audience will be left with the impression that the Biden Administration not only may have lied about the cyberattack but that they are objectively in favor of gas shortages and price spikes. That’s obviously and glaringly untrue." 

Last week’s cyberattack on one of the nation’s most important fuel pipelines, the Colonial Pipeline, is already beginning to cause shortages in the Southeastern part of the country, and with it higher gas prices.

A Russian ransomware group called Darkside has claimed responsibility for the attack, which caused the Colonial Pipeline to shut down completely last Friday. The FBI has said that Darkside was indeed responsible. The company that owns the Pipeline has said that it hopes to have it back online by the end of the week.

The White House, meanwhile, issued a fact sheet Tuesday, promising what it called an “All-of-Government Effort to Address Colonial Pipeline Incident.”

“The Administration is focused on avoiding potential energy supply disruptions to impacted communities, the U.S. military, and other facilities reliant on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other refined petroleum products. The Administration is continually assessing the pipeline shutdown’s impact on the U.S. fuel supply, as well as what additional actions are available to mitigate the impact of the pipeline’s shutdown,” the White House’s statement said.

However, according to one prominent commentator, the shutdown of the pipeline is in fact consistent with the president’s energy policies.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson, in his monologue Tuesday night, blamed the Biden Administration’s policies for the shortages and price spike, and stated that the White House “approves of” the shortages, in accordance with their energy plans.

“In case 2021 didn’t remind you enough of a grimmer version of the 1970s, we now have serious gas shortages, in a country that just recently was energy independent,” Carlson said on the show, per a Fox News transcript. “All along the east coast of the country today, people couldn't fill up their cars. The footage looks like Venezuela.”  

In a flourish of conspiracism, Carlson then stated that “the official explanation is that some mysterious gang of cybercriminals hacked the software at a major American fuel supplier called Colonial Pipeline.”

“What is this about?” Carlson went on to say. “Well, you know. On some level — let’s be honest about it — the White House approves of this disaster.”

Carlson’s argument is that the gas stations being closed is consistent with the Biden Administration’s policies of transitioning away from fossil fuels towards clean energy. Biden, after all, had cancelled the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline on the first day of his presidency.

“Yes, some gas stations are closed tonight. But soon enough, the lunatics plan to close them all — every gas station in the entire United States, shuttered forever, to make way for some new, as-yet-undefined means of transportation that will magically replace the gasoline engines we’ve used for more than 100 years,” Carlson said. “This is a green revolution. So who cares about some old pipeline?”

“In the state of California, the average price of a gallon of gas is over $4.00,” Carlson went on to argue, tying the increase to Biden policies. “A year ago it was $2.70… Why? This is the result of policy decisions made by the new administration. This is the Green New Deal. We’ve got it already. And if you love gas shortages and electricity blackouts and $80 plywood, this is the program for you.”

Carlson closed by tying the pipeline shutdown to the Texas energy crisis earlier this year.

“The answer, as you may have guessed, is that bad federal policies are distorting the price of everything in this country, from two by fours, to diesel fuel to corn dogs. None of this is an accident. Just as it wasn’t an accident when the power went out in Texas over the winter. It wasn’t a cold snap that did it, it was a federal policy that encouraged the state to rely on windmills that don’t actually work. So, it’s not a natural cycle. Somebody did this to us on purpose.”

Carlson is wrong, from top to bottom, in just about every key assertion in the monologue.

Yes, there are gas shortages, and spiking prices, in the Southeast right now. They came about as a result of a specific event, a cyberattack that shuttered a pipeline. Despite Carlson trying to sow doubt, where none exists, in calling the cyberattack “the official explanation,” that’s what happened. And while there’s certainly pain in gas shortages, it appears likely that the supply crunch will be a temporary one, lasting a matter of days.

The Biden Administration very clearly does not “approve of” the pipeline disruption; if anything, it’s a major political headache for them and they would prefer the problem be solved as quickly as possible. Furthermore, the Biden Administration’s energy policies do not advocate removing every oil pipeline immediately, or closing every gas station, nor anything close to that, but rather transitioning to cleaner energy over a longer period of time. And besides, Biden has only been president for four months, and his energy policies have barely been implemented.

Also, the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline did not affect fuel supply or raise prices, because it was not yet online. The Texas energy crisis, contra Carlson, had almost nothing to do with windmills or any other element of the Biden energy agenda, but rather the failure of the traditional energy grid in extreme weather, per an ERCOT analysis in April.

As for the Green New Deal, it was a specific legislative proposal, by Congressional Democrats during the Trump Administration, which is not the same thing as Biden’s energy policies, nor has it been passed into law.

And there’s a simple reason why gas prices are considerably higher than they were at this time in 2020: The spring of 2020 was the opening stage of the pandemic, stay-at-home orders were in place, and demand for gasoline was at historic lows. In 2021, even before the cyberattack, demand for fuel has risen, bringing prices up along with it.

From that monologue, Tucker Carlson’s audience will be left with the impression that the Biden Administration not only may have lied about the cyberattack but that they are objectively in favor of gas shortages and price spikes. That’s obviously and glaringly untrue.

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Amitai Etzioni

U.S. Politics, Americas

Millions of Americans who still support Donald Trump see themselves as a persecuted White “minority”—and that’s a problem.

Arthur Schlesinger Jr. believed that American history oscillated between conservative and liberal periods. Another way to see it is as a narrative with a lasting conservative bent—with short liberal interludes. The fact that President Biden’s successful first hundred days have resulted so far only in an approval rating of about 53 percent, the likelihood that he will lose control of Congress in 2022, and the prospect of the election of a “competent Trump” in 2024, supports the second view of American history. The main reason for concern is that the Biden administration is viewing the Reagan Democrats, the working-class Whites who vote Republican, who need to be returned to the fold, as homo economicus—offering them jobs, raises, and a whole slew of benefits—while they are people with strong so-called cultural concerns that also need to be addressed. 

Millions of Americans who still support Trump see themselves as a persecuted White minority. They hear from right-wing news outlets that demographic trends dictate that the United States is on its way to becoming a majority/minority county. These people believe that they have worked hard all their lives only so that immigrants and members of minority groups can cut ahead of them in the various lines for admission into colleges, good jobs, government assistance, and more. These people believe that their traditional values are being assaulted by cultural changes, such as men seeking to identify as women competing with girls on the sports field. Also, college-educated individuals typically snub them by referring to them as rednecks and “deplorables.” Their feelings, which have been egged on by racial whistles and conspiracy theories, cannot be changed by the provision of jobs, health insurance, and child care alone—even though these are all good programs.

Some people may argue that as President Joe Biden successfully oversees the rollout of vaccines to the coronavirus across America and as his efforts to restore the economy become more evident, support for him will broaden. Unfortunately, unless these feelings of resentment are addressed, that support will be quite limited. The United States is undergoing a series of social changes that are inflicting pain on major groups. It would be wrong and unwise to ignore it. The values and feelings of those who must learn to live with these changes must be addressed.

One place to start might be to stop the rhetoric of minority triumphalism, which implies that because people of color are soon to become the majority, they can rule and ignore the Whites, who have long lorded over them, exercising their privileges. Statistically, this view is empirically mistaken. Instead, the main theme should be that forming a more perfect union entails forging a fair society, one in which everyone is treated with full respect and dignity, and receives their dues. This of course means that those who suffered disproportional deprivations in the past now need additional help—but the goal is to make all whole.

The argument for increasing diversity in colleges and public office, to make them reflect the nation as it is, is a strong one. However, it needs to be extended to include not just racial and ethnic minorities or people of different sexual orientations, but also people from parts of the country in which there are large aggregations of rural and working-class Whites.

Some liberal advocates come across as if they favor open borders, accepting however many refugees can prove some kind of insecurity in their country of origin. This leaves many Americans with a sense of loss of control. The Biden administration needs an immigration policy that includes a high number of legal immigrants, as long as it also entails gaining control of the border. 

Biden’s proposals to provide assistance for child care needs to be properly understood as pro-family, because these proposals provide tax credits for parents. This means that parents are free to use these funds to make it easier for one of them to work at home while the children are young, instead of having to put the children into child care centers, which is not the preferred option by parents with infants.      

Biden’s economy-focused agenda has a strong moral message: to correct for the injustices inflicted upon minorities. However, in order to sustain his drive, his administration will have to find ways to address the very large number of Americans who see themselves as a persecuted minority. 

Amitai Etzioni is a University Professor and professor of international affairs at The George Washington University. His latest book is Reclaiming Patriotism. Please visit his new platform for discussion, CivilDialogueS.org. 

Image: Reuters

Ethen Kim Lieser

Joe Biden Stimulus Letter,

Many Americans have already received a letter signed by President Joe Biden after their coronavirus stimulus checks under the American Rescue Plan were issued. Don't get scared. 

Many Americans have already received a letter signed by President Joe Biden after their coronavirus stimulus checks under the American Rescue Plan were issued.

But some are wondering if this is some sort of a scam, as the letter outlines how much money was disbursed to your account and tells you to visit a website for more information.

In response, the Internal Revenue Service has confirmed in a statement that this is indeed legitimate correspondence from the White House.

“After each of the three Economic Impact Payments is issued, the IRS is required to mail a notice to each recipient’s last known address. The notice provides information about the amount of the payment, how it was made and how to report any payment that wasn’t received. Some people may receive multiple notices about each payment. Most people will simply file the notice with their tax records and won’t need to contact the IRS or take any further action,” the agency said.

“People should keep any IRS notices they receive about Economic Impact Payments with other tax records. The IRS cannot issue replacement copies of these notices. Taxpayers who don’t have their notices can view the amounts of their Economic Impact Payments through their online account,” it added.

Much like Biden’s predecessor former President Donald Trump, the White House used similar letter formatting to detail Biden’s role in successfully delivering millions of payments to financially struggling individuals and families.

“On March 11, 2021, I signed into law the American Rescue Plan, a law that will help vaccinate America and deliver immediate economic relief to hundreds of million Americans, including you,” the letter said. “A key part of the American Rescue Plan is direct payments of $1,400 per person for most American households. … This fulfills a promise I made to you, and will help get Americans through the crisis.”

Biden later added: “When I took office, I promised the American people that help was on the way. The American Rescue Plan makes good on that promise. … I truly believe there’s nothing we can’t do as a nation, as long as we do it together.”

During a recent press briefing, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki defended the letter and its content, saying that it was “pretty standard” and was “not intended to make it about him—it’s about the American people.”

Like the IRS’ notice, she added that the letter “should be kept with tax year 2021 records.”

The IRS and the Treasury Department are currently in the final weeks of sending out the remaining third round of stimulus checks to eligible Americans, of which only about 15 percent have yet to be disbursed.

In all, roughly one hundred sixty-four million payments worth $386 billion have landed in bank accounts and mailboxes.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.
 

Caleb Larson

Nuclear Submarines,

Technology is great, but it's still no match for mother nature. 

Here's What You Need to Remember: The bow of the USS San Francisco was shattered, the frontal thirty feet or so were crushed and exposed to the sea. Water was rushing into the sub—it was critical that an emergency blow be initiated in which air is pumped into the submarine's ballast tanks to bring it up to the surface. 

In 2005, a U.S. Navy nuclear submarine ran around on a mountain. No, it wasn’t out of the water—it hit an underground mountain, and nearly sank. 

USS San Francisco

The USS San Francisco is an American nuclear-powered submarine, one of the large Los Angeles-class submarines first laid down in 1972 and are among the U.S. Navy’s quietest submarines. 

At the time of the collision, or grounding in Navy parlance, the USS San Francisco was near Guam on a peacetime training mission en route to Australia. The sub was at a depth of about 525 feet and skipping along at a crisp thirty-ish miles per hour. 

The grounding was massive. Sailors in the dining room were tossed up to twenty-five feet across the mess hall. One of the sub’s Petty Officers, Brian Barnes, recalled the incident during an interview with 60 minutes. “I remember just bodies everywhere,” he said. “Broken glass, stepping on plates, your shipmates moaning because they’re in pain, yelling.” 

The bow of the USS San Francisco was shattered, the frontal thirty feet or so were crushed and exposed to the sea. Water was rushing into the sub—it was critical that an emergency blow be initiated in which air is pumped into the submarine's ballast tanks to bring it up to the surface. 

Full Complement

The San Francisco’s normal complement was 127 souls, 12 officers, and 115 men. 98 suffered injuries during the collision and many of which were unable to man their stations due to their injuries. One sailor, Machinist’s Mate Second Class Joseph Allen Ashely would later die of a head injury. 

The sailor who opened the submarine's air valves to fill the ballast tanks—the emergency blow—did so with two broken arms. 

Danny Hager, who was monitoring the submarine’s depth gauge, had a harrowing experience after the valves were opened. 

“I told them 525 feet 0 acceleration. And I’m waiting, you know, 5 seconds, 10 seconds, I don’t know how long it was, you know, 525 feet, 0 acceleration,” Hager explained to 60 Minutes.
“And it was just absolute silence in control because they’re waiting for me to report that we were accelerating upwards.” 

The problem was that the forward ballast tanks had been ruptured in the collision. Air was bleeding out into the ocean. A full 60 seconds passed with no change in depth. 

Then, the rear of the submarine began to tilt upwards as the rear ballast tanks gradually filled with air. Hager was relieved. “You could feel the pregnant pause, and the almost the relief when I said 500 feet acceleration upwards.” 

Eventually, the USS San Francisco bobbed to the surface, but the journey home was not complete. Luckily the nuclear reactor hadn’t been damaged in the grounding, and the crew limped homeward at a slow ten miles per hour, taking them fifty-two hours to get to Guam. 

Unstoppable Force, Immovable Object

Despite its awesome firepower and nuclear propulsion, the USS San Francisco, like all submarines, was dependent on sea charts that map out the seafloor below. In the aftermath of the investigation, the Navy found that the submarine had been using outdated charts that described the area where the grounding happened as “discolored water,” indicating likely seamounts in the area. 

The commanding officer, Commander Kevin Mooney was reprimanded. Several sailors were commended for their actions, earning the Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medal, and the Navy and Marine Corps Commendation Medal. There is a tribute to Ashley at the Navy Memorial in Washington, D.C. 

Caleb Larson is a defense writer for the National Interest. He holds a Master of Public Policy and covers U.S. and Russian security, European defense issues, and German politics and culture.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Carey Kuebeler Mott

Digital Currency, Asia

In the race to digitize the world’s major currencies, China will secure greater influence within the yuan bloc.

Next February, Beijing plans to debut the digital yuan to the world at the Winter Olympic Games. Will the United States have a digital dollar by the time Los Angeles hosts the Summer Olympic Games in 2028? 

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long sought to gain greater monetary influence by internationalizing the yuan. In other words, China would like to borrow from foreigners at low-interest rates, restrict the supply of the yuan to punish rivals, and exploit the “exorbitant privilege” of global reserve status, which the United States alone now enjoys. Research by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows the yuan bloc accounts for 30 percent of global GDP, second to the dollar at 40 percent, and much has been said about a digital yuan hastening the dollar’s downfall.

But the dollar—comprising roughly 60 percent of foreign exchange reserves, half of all international trade, and 90 percent of all foreign exchange market transactions—has network effects that will take decades to break down.

Moreover, China’s aggressive foreign policy and top-down economic control make it unlikely that the dollar will be dethroned by the yuan. China has opened its bond markets to foreign investors and it could encourage natural demand for the yuan by further loosening its governmental controls. But actions such as seizing control of Hong Kong and curbing the growth of its largest tech companies suggests China will pursue an aggressive approach of forced adoption of the yuan in order for the CCP to maintain its market control. This is precisely what precludes China from offering the sort of safe assets and deep, accessible capital markets that are a prerequisite of any international reserve currency.

U.S. policymakers, convinced of the dollar’s enduring role as the dominant global reserve currency, fail to see that digitization may rebalance reserves enough to secure China greater influence in Asia and endow the People’s Bank of China with new advantages. China does not need global reserve status to realize the benefits of increased reserves within the region. It will gain many of the accompanying geopolitical and economic benefits—exerting greater control over neighbors, bolstering Chinese companies in competing markets, and damaging regional U.S. interests—by simply expanding adoption within the current yuan bloc.

Going Digital: More Yuan in a Bigger Bloc

While digitization holds promise for any currency—more efficient payments, greater financial inclusion, simpler stimulus funding, and facilitated monetary policy within their currency blocs—nations like China see the additional prospect of escaping American digital surveillance.

Over a hundred countries owe $5 trillion in debt to China, and some of it will be repaid using the current system of SWIFT messages and U.S. correspondent banks. As China continues to extend credit, the ability to conceal its lending and monitor its borrowers is appealing enough that the terms of China’s loan agreements, already obfuscated, may begin to require future payments in digital yuan using its alternative to SWIFT, called CIPS.

In this way, a digital Belt and Road could link together yuan-dependent ATMs and banking services, encouraging greater adoption either directly, by forced participation on CIPS and requirements for yuan-denominated transactions; or indirectly, by creating network effects that make it infeasible to use alternative systems—which, at any rate, the state is unlikely to tolerate.

Greater regional adoption of the yuan means more of it will be held by Asian central banks, further exposing regional economies to the monetary policy of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). Unlike the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank (ECB), China’s central bank is not strictly independent of its government. Recent calls to boycott the Olympic Games over the exploitation and subjugation in Xinjiang shine a light on how economic prowess is merging with cultural control under China’s current regime. For yuan-users, the CCP’s regional and political ambitions will easily blur with the PBOC’s economic policy, which could be wielded—and weaponized—in unprecedented ways.

Monetary Policy as Regional Power

As use of the yuan spreads, the PBOC may take advantage of those dependent on it. After the Asian Financial Crisis highlighted the region’s susceptibility to economic contagion, its crisis management framework began to include currency swap agreements, a form of standing credit line. Used in normal times to settle trade and balance reserves, in a crisis these arrangements are a lifeline to local banks. Tapping regional central banks for credit means they do not have to reach out to the IMF or other international organizations, and local banks have come to expect that central banks will provide this liquidity.

But China’s willingness could change with its evolving ambitions. Moreover, as digital currencies enter the mix China can dictate the protocols for their interoperability. Easy credit may be extended to Iran, which could be permitted to issue a digital rial, while a country such as Taiwan is starved of liquidity and forced to adopt the digital yuan.

China may intervene as a practical matter. Increasing reserves of the yuan put upward pressure on its value. A strong yuan raises the prices of China’s goods relative to goods produced by other exporting countries. There’s little doubt that a digital yuan would be manipulated to retain a competitive edge for its export producers and limit the growth of rival exporters.

In response to the pandemic, China’s relatively small stimulus propped up specific industries through structural monetary policies that risked making entire sectors dependent on the PBOC. With the ability to send yuan to digital wallets across the region, the PBOC could take a similarly selective approach to future crisis relief by issuing funds to foreign economies viewed favorably by the CCP at the risk of making entire foreign economies dependent on its generosity.

Balancing Global Monetary Influence

For these reasons, few desire a dominant yuan. However, many central bankers still hope to dampen the dollar’s power. The Bank of England’s Mark Carney has called for a single supranational currency to supplant the dollar and suppress the yuan. While fanciful, his idea echoes the frustrations with the status quo among U.S. allies and rivals alike, but there are few alternatives to dollar dominance.

Concentrating power in any hegemon has consequences for global financial stability. If an economic shock, political instability, or profligate debt issuance caused creditors to lose faith in the United States, a run on the Federal Reserve may occur, which would certainly trigger a global crisis. It can be argued that a few powerful central banks overseeing clearly divided, equally balanced currency blocs would reduce exposure to any one bloc’s policies and help contain a financial crisis from spreading.

But such a fractured network complicates global trade, and research suggests a multipolar system is a less stable system with fewer reserves overall. With multiple safe assets to choose from, economies flit quickly between different currencies attempting to find the safest one—not unlike the volatility of reserves seen during the transition between the pound sterling and the dollar after World War I.

Although the European Union may like to compete for reserves, the ECB has not taken the necessary steps for the euro to become a global reserve currency, instead choosing to focus on domestic policy and stability within its bloc. With eight members refusing to use the euro, the European Union is already a multi-currency bloc challenged to effectively implement monetary policy across its twenty-seven member states. If it can prevent further currency defection, a digital euro might facilitate monetary policy, but first the ECB must persuade Germany, its largest shareholder.

Although the ECB’s negative interest rates currently see them swimming in deposits, Germany’s ailing banks risk losing much of them in the move to a digital euro. Because retail deposits of digital currencies at central banks take away from their lending base, private banks have floated a cap on the amount that each citizen can hold at the central bank or penalizing balances over a certain threshold.

Buy-in from banks is also crucial for a digital dollar, as digitizing wholesale cross-border payments depresses the correspondent banking business, an attractive revenue stream for an industry challenged by emerging technology. The G20’s Financial Stability Board recently called for public-private collaboration to simplify the cross-border payment process, but private sector partnerships could go further in the United States.

Different Structures Call for Different Solutions

China issued a digital yuan to circumvent competition from foreign companies, such as Facebook, and to check the duopoly power of AliPay and WeChat at home. With an independent monetary authority that relies on the private sector to facilitate its policies, the United States should not view private or nonstate currencies as a threat, but as an opportunity.

The United States should tap the private sector to update payments systems and help issue a secure digital currency. Private sector developers would welcome co-developing a digital currency that grants the privacy assured by cryptocurrencies and stablecoins with the stability of central bank currencies. Doing so is not far-fetched. Governments want to be able to track money laundering and tax evasion; developers could let private banks vet customers before they can open their digital wallets without monitoring the spending of the dollar itself.

It is also true that the Fed’s structure could pose the biggest obstacle to minting a digital currency. Digital dollars and central bank accounts have consequences for central bank independence. After a year when the Fed’s market support, municipal lending, and climate consciousness were cast as egregious mandate expansion, policymakers must motivate politicians wary of a larger Federal Reserve by appealing to a competitive stance on China.

In announcing its digital currency, China has called for interoperability, promised anonymity, and insisted on its use for foreign exchange, while at the same time pursuing territorial expansion, purloining foreign technology, and weaponizing trade. In engaging with China, U.S. policymakers must insist that China separate the PBOC’s monetary policy from the political objectives of the CCP. With waning power to levy sanctions, the United States must also provide a secure, efficient alternative to a Chinese payments system.

In 2028, when the United States hosts the Summer Olympics, China is projected to be the largest economy in the world. In the absence of its own digital currency, U.S. calls for independence of monetary policy and interoperability between currencies will sound to China more like flexing hegemony than a sincere push for efficiency, security, and interconnectedness. That may be enough for China to secure the regional influence it desires. 

Carey K. Mott is an International & Domestic Markets Associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  He is the 2021 Economics Fellow for Young Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP).  The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Image: Reuters.

Stephen Silver

Tax Refunds,

The number of tax refunds being held up by the IRS is 29 million, CBS News reported this week, citing the IRS’ Taxpayer Advocate Service.

Here's What You Need to Remember: The IRS is handling a lot more than just usual tax season- they’re also grappling with what the American Rescue Plan, and the 2020 Consolidated Appropriations Act before that, means for tax laws, as well as the functions of the IRS.

The number of tax refunds being held up by the IRS is 29 million, CBS News reported this week, citing the IRS’ Taxpayer Advocate Service. This followed a recent warning from the IRS that tax refunds may take longer than usual this year.

The 29 million figure came from a blog post, from the National Taxpayer Advocate blog, late last month. It is possible that that number has changed to some degree in the two weeks since.

“Over the years, the IRS has gotten quite good at processing tax returns and issuing refunds quickly and efficiently. The IRS website says that normal It’s processing time for an electronically filed return is 21 days, but in reality, millions of taxpayers receive their refunds even quicker — sometimes within a week, sometimes in days,” that blog post said.

“Similar to past years, IRS employees are working tirelessly to get taxpayers their much-needed refunds as quickly as possible. However, a combination of the high volume of 2020 tax returns requiring manual processing, the backlog of unprocessed 2019 paper tax returns, congressional mandates to issue economic impact payments (EIPs) and provide other relief to taxpayers during the pandemic, limited resources, and technology issues have contributed to more refund delays and longer refund delays than are typical in a normal filing season.”

The post went on to say that 91 million 1040 tax forms have already been processed, with 68 million refunds processed to date.

However, the tax season has been “challenging at best” so far, the blog post said. That’s because the IRS is handling a lot more than just usual tax season- they’re also grappling with what the American Rescue Plan, and the 2020 Consolidated Appropriations Act before that, means for tax laws, as well as the functions of the IRS.

“Any inconsistencies between the IRS’s records for the EIP and the recovery rebate credit (RRC) reflected on a taxpayer’s 2020 Form 1040 or Form 1040-SR, U.S. Tax Return for Seniors, require manual review and corrections before processing,” the report said. “A manual review of a tax return is also required if the taxpayer elected the 2019 ‘income lookback’ to calculate the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC.)

According to the CBS report, taxpayers have been taking to social media complaining about the wait times for their tax refunds. In part, that’s because the IRS has limited abilities to help people access their refunds, as the agency itself warned in March.

“TAS understands the frustrations and hardships caused by these unprecedented circumstances. Please be patient if you learn your refund claim is not yet processed and understand why TAS cannot accept your case at this time. We continue to work with the IRS to identify ways to address this backlog,” TAS said.

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

Peter Suciu

Taxes, Americas

A full-time employee who doesn't do any work on the side wouldn’t likely see a 1099 form. Instead, they receive a W-2 form, which is typically sent by an employer to report all wage and salary information for employees.

Many self-employed or freelance workers expect to receive 1099 forms, but few realize that if they were hired to do work and paid more than $600, then they need to send a 1099 form. It is a bit more complicated than just downloading a form and mailing it.

In addition to sending out a 1099 form by January 31, a copy must be sent to the IRS by February 28, while the electronic filing deadline is March 31.

The IRS will impose a penalty/fine for the failure to file an accurate 1099-MISC form on time and the minimum penalty is a fine of $30 for each return if a person files the correct information within thirty days of the filing date, which is Feb. 28.

There are also two versions of the 1099 form now. One is the 1099-MISC form and the other is the 1099-NEC form. They are similar but used for different types of income.

What is the 1099-MISC?

A full-time employee who doesn't do any work on the side wouldn’t likely see a 1099 form. Instead, they receive a W-2 form, which is typically sent by an employer to report all wage and salary information for employees.

First, there is 1099-MISC, which is sent to each person to whom an employer may have paid during the year including those who made at least $10 in royalties or broker payments in lieu of dividends or tax-exempt interest.

It is also sent for those who made at least $600 in rents, prizes and awards, other income payments, health and medical care payments, crop insurance proceeds and even for cash payments for fish (or other aquatic life) that an individual may purchase from those engaged in the trade or business of catching fish. A 1099-MISC form can also be sent for cash paid to a notional principal contract to an individual partnership, or estate.

The 1099-MISC form is also used to report any direct sales of at least $5,000 of consumer products to a buyer for resale anywhere other than a permanent retail establishment.

1099-NEC

To further complicate matters, beginning with Tax Year 2020, there is the 1099-NEC form, or Nonemployee Compensation, which is used to report payments of nonemployee compensation (NEC) previously reported in box 7 on Form 1099-MISC.

It is the form business owners will use to report nonemployee compensation. This form is only used to report non-employee compensation to independent contractors, and not other types of payment.

In other words, Form 1099-NEC did not replace Form 1099-MISC. It just took over the nonemployee compensation portion of 1099-MISC. It is used for each person paid who is not an employee; if the payment was for services in the course of a trade or business; or if a person made a payment to an individual, a partnership, an estate, or a corporation; and payments to the payee was at least $600 during the year.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters

Rachel Bucchino

Stimulus Money Stolen,

More than $300 million worth of stimulus payments have been stolen—a figure that’s likely to jump as the third round of relief continues to be pumped out, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).

More than $300 million worth of stimulus payments have been stolen—a figure that’s likely to jump as the third round of relief continues to be pumped out, according to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC).

The FTC said that stimulus scammers are using people’s personal information to get access to the direct payments.

“These scams around COVID stimulus checks, coronavirus, are being undertaken by hackers and scammers in a more sophisticated way because they have easy, cheap access to more of our personal information,” Rob Shavell, a data privacy security expert, told NBC-affiliate WCNC Charlotte.

Shavell added, “Unfortunately, it's just too easy to google somebody's personal information now, buy it for 99 cents from a data broker, and go do something with it. I can find out somebody's date of birth, I can find out their company, I can find out their mother's maiden name, their employer, their past employer, their past addresses, email and phone.”

Scammers are reportedly using personal information to convince stimulus payment recipients that they are affiliated with a government agency or even with that person’s employer. Some have offered recipients help with depositing the direct payments, in which they would then steal the federal funds. 

The FTC claimed that scammers have stolen more than $300 million through this method, but Shavell thinks the figure falls short of how much has actually been seized.

“That is actually just the people that complain by filing a report to the FTC,” Shavell told the network. “Our estimate is the amount of actual loss is probably 10 times that. It's probably $3 billion, not $300 million.”

Shavell went on to say, “You can create a better scam when you have better data. The more personal it is and it sounds, the more believable it can be.”

Scammers get access to the personal information from data brokers, who gather and sell the information to businesses, advertisers and even individual hackers. 

Data brokers, however, not only collect the information from online searches and internet activity, but also from state entities. 

Just last year, the North Carolina Department of Motor Vehicles earned almost $41.5 million by selling millions of drivers’ license information to more than 20 third-party companies and 230,000 individuals. 

“It is unbelievable that all of these institutions and DMVs across every state are able to sell our data, make money from it without us having a say in it,” Shavell said. “That's why we need a combination of legislation and technology to enable that legislation and make it easier for people to control their data because it's our data. It's not somebody else's.”

Experts encourage Americans to be cautious in trusting others with banking information, as they could be associated with a massive stimulus scam.

“The new round of stimulus, we want people to be very careful,” Shavell said.

Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.

Trevor Filseth

Stimulus Check,

If your third stimulus check is lost, stolen, or destroyed, you can ask the IRS to perform a “payment trace.” This amounts to an audit on what happened to your check. If it is proven to have been delivered erroneously or destroyed, or if a certain period of time goes by without it being cashed, you can request a new payment through the IRS’ website.

By now, the third round of stimulus checks – negotiated by the American Rescue Plan of March 2020 – have nearly all been sent out by the IRS. If you earn less than $75,000 per year, the chances are high that you have been paid by now, either through direct deposit or through a check in the mail.

So what do you do if your check never arrives?

It’s a fact of life that things sometimes get lost in the mail. Stimulus checks are no different. Given the massive number that have been sent out, it’s inevitable that some will disappear into the system. Another danger is theft; since stimulus checks are easily identifiable in the mail, they have sometimes been stolen.

This is one of the reasons that the IRS recommends direct deposit. However, if you ordered a snail-mail check and it has not arrived yet, the IRS has tools to assist you in tracking it.

If your third stimulus check is lost, stolen, or destroyed, you can ask the IRS to perform a “payment trace.” This amounts to an audit on what happened to your check. If it is proven to have been delivered erroneously or destroyed, or if a certain period of time goes by without it being cashed, you can request a new payment through the IRS’ website.

There are some caveats to this, however. First, the process will take a long time. Between the standards of government bureaucracy, the IRS’ acute staffing shortage, and the mountain of paperwork remaining in their system, it is a virtual guarantee that you will be waiting.

Second, the bureaucracy of requesting a duplicate stimulus check is long and complicated, and it is essential that each step is completed accurately.

The first step is to complete the IRS’ “Get My Payment” tool. This tool provides information on your stimulus check, including method of delivery and an estimated arrival date. If the tool shows that a payment was issued to you and you have not yet cashed it, it will provide the option to request a payment trace.

If you requested a direct deposit, it might be necessary to wait up to a week for the bank to process the payment. Banks have also been backlogged by stimulus checks, although by May the overwhelming majority should have been deposited.

The timeframe is far longer for a mailed check. The IRS asks not to initiate payment traces until it has been 30 days since the check was mailed (or longer, if you have a forwarding or foreign address). Once this time period has elapsed, you can request a payment trace by calling the IRS at 1-800-919-9835 or by mailing a completed Form 3911 to the IRS. (Pick one or the other; don’t do both.)

Once this has been done, the IRS should initiate the payment trace and, finding that your check has been lost, will send you another. Keep in mind that it may take another month to arrive.

Trevor Filseth is a news reporter and writer for the National Interest.

Caleb Larson

Submarines,

Despite many years as a strictly littoral force, the People’s Liberation Army Navy has made steady advances in submarine design — and maybe leaving the United States behind. Here’s why.

Here's What You Need To Remember: The newer Type 095 submarines are just beginning to enter the water or will be able to in the near future. Would it be reasonable to assume the Type 095 would be even more advanced — that is quieter — than its predecessors? Absolutely.

Despite many years as a strictly littoral force, the People’s Liberation Army Navy has made steady advances in submarine design — and maybe leaving the United States behind. Here’s why.

Party Over Proficiency

For many years, China was the subject of ridicule in naval circles. The Korean War put the brakes on Chinese naval innovations (all innovations really), and the Cultural Revolution also hindered naval advancement in the name of the party.

Despite these setbacks, China has steadily developed its naval capabilities. Though Chinese naval advancement was initially focused on near-shore capabilities like smaller diesel submarines, shore-based missile defense, or fast littoral boats, China is now possibly capable of fielding a true blue-water submarine force.

Speaking last year at a Naval event, Captain Chester Parks, commanding officer of the Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, said that foreign adversaries "are definitely catching up to us,” in the realm of submarine technology.

The Office of Naval Intelligence concurred, saying “the PLA(N) is currently transitioning from older, less reliable attack submarines like the Romeo SS, Ming SS and Han SSN to the more modern Kilo SS, Yuan SS, Shang SSN, and the Type 095 SSN,” later calling the Type 095 “advanced.”

Marco

Submarines try to stay hidden when puttering around underwater. Put simply, there are two important variables at play when submarines play hide-and-seek: how loud a submarine is, and how good submarines are at detecting other submarines.

The naval expert H I Sutton detailed that ambient ocean noise is around 90 decibels, or roughly a motorcycle at 25 feet away. Submarines try to get to that noise level, or below there.

According to Sutton, western submarines made it to about the 90-decibel threshold twenty to thirty years ago. The U.S. Navy’s improved Los Angeles-class subs are near 110 decibels.

“Ten years ago the latest Chinese attack submarines were considered to be as quiet as the latest Russian Akula Class submarines” H I Sutton remarked. "Since these estimates were published in 2007, China has launched two improved variants of the Type-093 submarine. So it is a reasonable assumption that the latest Chinese boats will already be quieter.”

One commentator found it likely that the Type 095 would have electronic noise-cancellation technology, like your noise-canceling headphones, a shaftless drive, and a single hull. All of these would be a huge step forward for China’s submarine program.

The newer Type 095 submarines are just beginning to enter the water or will be able to in the near future. Would it be reasonable to assume the Type 095 would be even more advanced — that is quieter — than its predecessors? Absolutely.

Polo

The other factor, detection, is difficult to gauge.

Submarines use sonar to detect other subs. Sonar systems are typically trailed out behind submarines on lines. They can also be arrayed along the sides of the sub. Chinese submarines make use of both systems. How advanced are Chinese designs? Hard to say definitely — but almost certainly getting better and better.

Steady March into the Deep

While it is hard to estimate Chines submarine abilities with absolute certainty, submarine quietness trends are clear — they’re not getting any louder.

The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence may have said it best, “the PLA(N) will progress to the Type 095 SSN, which may provide a generational improvement in many areas such as quieting and weapon capacity.” Sailors beware.

Caleb Larson is a Defense Writer with The National Interest. He holds a Master of Public Policy and covers U.S. and Russian security, European defense issues, and German politics and culture. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

Eli Fuhrman

Golden State Stimulus,

Residents of California hoping for more payments may be in luck. Many eligible Californians will already have received additional help from the state in the form of $600 or $1,200 stimulus payments as part of California’s Golden State Stimulus program, which was tied to qualifications based on 2020 tax returns.

With the distribution of federal stimulus payments looking as though it is approaching the terminal stage, many Americans who are still dependent on these payments for their financial security for the remainder of the pandemic may be facing an uncertain future. For residents of at least one state, however, additional help may be on the way.

With its most recent batch of payments, the IRS has now sent 164 million stimulus payments worth roughly $386 billion dollars to eligible Americans, but has now also sent out over 85 percent of the funds earmarked for use in stimulus payments. The most recent batch was also the smallest batch distributed so far, and was focused primarily on sending payments to those Americans who were only eligible following the filing of their 2020 tax returns. This suggests that the majority of eligible Americans may now have received their payments.

With stimulus payments set to wind down soon, many Americans are now looking to the future and calling for additional payments, with several online petitions now cumulatively including over two million signatures advocating for further payments. They have been joined by a growing number of Congressional Democrats who have also been calling on the Biden administration to push for additional stimulus payments.

Residents of California hoping for more payments may be in luck. Many eligible Californians will already have received additional help from the state in the form of $600 or $1,200 stimulus payments as part of California’s Golden State Stimulus program, which was tied to qualifications based on 2020 tax returns.

Now, California Governor Gavin Newsom has announced plans for an additional relief program that will reportedly cost the state $100 billion, including $8 billion in direct stimulus payments. As part of the plan, Californian’s who make up to $75,000 in gross annual adjusted income will be eligible for a one-time payment of $600, with an additional $500 available to families with dependents. Worth noting, Californian’s who already received a stimulus payment from the state earlier in the year will not be eligible for the $600 payment, but families with dependents will still be eligible for the $500 payment.

Also included in the proposed plan is $5.2 billion for rental assistance, which will aim to cover 100 percent of back rent owed by residents of California that have been heavily impacted by the pandemic, along with $2 billion designed to help Californians pay off overdue utility bills.

The plan has not yet been approved by California’s state legislature, with the governor’s budget plan not due until the end of this week. The legislature will then have until June 15 to pass the budget.

The announcement of Governor Newsom’s plan comes as the federal government recently distributed guidelines to state and local governments regarding funding as part of the State and Local Coronavirus Fiscal Recovery Fund, which could result in additional stimulus payments for some Americans. 

Eli Fuhrman is a contributing writer for The National Interest.

Ethen Kim Lieser

Tax Refunds,

“Time is quickly running out for these taxpayers. There’s only a three-year window to claim these refunds, and the window closes on May 17,” IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig recently said in a statement.

It is indeed true that most of the headlines are focused on the current third round of coronavirus stimulus checks sent out under President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan.

But what many cash-strapped Americans might not be aware is that the Internal Revenue Service is holding onto a hefty sum of tax refunds from previous years. Just last month, the agency confirmed that $1.3 billion in tax refunds remain unclaimed for an estimated 1.3 million U.S. taxpayers who have yet to file their 2017 tax returns.

The bad news is that these individuals only have one week left to collect the money.

“Time is quickly running out for these taxpayers. There’s only a three-year window to claim these refunds, and the window closes on May 17,” IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig recently said in a statement.

“We want to help people get these refunds, but they will need to quickly file a 2017 tax return,” he added.

The IRS has estimated that the midpoint for the potential refunds for 2017 is $865—which means that “half of the refunds are more than $865 and half are less,” the agency stated.

If the money remains unclaimed past the deadline, it will become the property of the U.S. Treasury.

The IRS has reminded “taxpayers seeking a 2017 tax refund that their checks may be held if they have not filed tax returns for 2018 and 2019. In addition, the refund will be applied to any amounts still owed to the IRS or a state tax agency and may be used to offset unpaid child support or past due federal debts, such as student loans.”

For this particular tax season, the IRS has noted that it has received more than ninety-three million individual tax returns and more than sixty-two million refunds have been disbursed. The average refund to date has been estimated to be $2,900.

However, with new tax codes to implement and more than a hundred sixty million stimulus checks being sent out, the agency has found it increasingly difficult to quickly get these refunds into taxpayers’ hands. Moreover, according to the National Taxpayer Advocate, the IRS is holding nearly thirty million tax returns for manual processing, which is only further delaying the refunds.

Know that for many early filers, there have been reports that the average wait time for a refund has been about six to eight weeks, which is much longer than the usual wait of three weeks or less.

For those individuals who have already filed their tax returns, be aware that there are ways to track the refunds. Two of the most popular options are the IRS tool Where’s My Refund and the mobile app called IRS2Go.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.

Caleb Larson

Iran Missiles, Middle East

As if things couldn't get worse. This missile could very well eventually carry a nuclear warhead. 

Here's What You Need to Remember: It is possible that there are several versions of the Sejjil missile. 

One of Iran’s more capable missile designs is the Sejjil—and remarkably it is probably produced domestically. It could potentially hit parts of Europe—and carry a nuclear warhead. 

Origins

Beginning the mid-to-late-1990s, Iran began working on a medium-range ballistic missile that had a decent range and good payload. Tehran wanted a weapon that could carry both conventional high-explosive ordnance, as well as be nuclear-capable, should Iran achieve the required know-how. What came out of those design requirements was the Sejjil missile. 

The Sejjil has several features that make it so deadly. First, it is road-mobile, meaning it can be transported via a multi-wheeled launcher, like the kind that is seen on Red Square in Moscow during Russian Victory Day parades. Moreover, unlike some of Iran’s other missiles, the Sejjil uses solid-fuel propellant. Solid-fuel missiles can be launched much more quickly than liquid-fueled missiles, and do not require pre-flight refueling. 

Additionally, Iranian state-owned media has reported some Sejjil launches as Sejjil 2 launches. It is therefore possible that there are several versions of the Sejjil missile. 

Truly Domestic?

According to missile experts at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, the Sejjil is likely a domestic design, which is a departure from typical Iranian designs, which have historically leaned on Soviet/Russian or Chinese components, particularly guidance systems: 

“Though some speculation has tied the missile to the Chinese DF-11 and DF-15, the size and specifications of the missile suggest that the Iranian missile is unique. Unlike earlier Iranian systems, the missile does not appear to be a copy of a previously-released North Korean missile. Of course, it is highly likely that the missile project has made significant gains through foreign assistance.” 

Range and Payload

In February, Iranian media published a video of what is claimed to be an underground Sejjil production facility, presumably to better protect from Israeli or American airstrikes. 

Back in 2009, former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates commented on a missile test that Iran had conducted, believed to be the Sejjil. He explained that the information that he had indicated “that it was a successful flight test. The missile will have a range of approximately 2,000 to 2,500 kilometers. Because of some of the problems they’ve had with their engines, we think, at least at this stage of the testing, it’s probably closer to the lower end of that range.” 

The Sejjil’s range is consistent with that estimate, guessed to be around 2,000 kilometers or about 1,250 miles. If true, this would put Egypt, parts of Sudan, most of Ukraine, parts of southern Russia, a part of western China, India, and large parts of the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean within range.

If it would eventually be nuclear-armed, this would be a terrifying prospect—though Iran does not have any missiles that could strike the United States, and would even struggle to hit parts of Western Europe.

Caleb Larson is a defense writer for the National Interest. He holds a Master of Public Policy and covers U.S. and Russian security, European defense issues, and German politics and culture.

Image: Reuters

Kris Osborn

F-22 Raptor,

Placing an F-22 jet potentially three hundred miles closer to a point of attack, as was done in this exercise, decreases the potential need for refueling, massively decreases time to attack.

It’s called the “Rapid Raptor” program . . . a multi-year Air Force program to ensure high-speed, rapid attack deployability for its fleet of F-22 fighter jets and deliver first strikes anywhere in the world within twenty-four hours.

The program is designed to ensure that at least four F-22 jets can attack anywhere on an urgent, fast-strike basis by in part being dispersed across the globe with ready crew, C-17 Globemaster III support, and fuel and weapons necessary for “first strike” capability in otherwise tough to reach parts of the world.

This “Rapid Raptor” program, which spans across key hotspots and remote areas throughout a wide range of potential operating environments, may likely be informing the Air Force’s “Agile Combat Employment” strategic exercises intended to disperse basing and staging areas to enable rapid deployment. In a recent exercise, F-22 jets from Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage flew to a smaller airport three hundred miles southwest.

“By operating from forward operating locations such a King Salmon, we are proving our strategic flexibility, freedom of movement and our ability to develop and to execute proactive and scalable options for future missions,” Brig. Gen. William Radiff, deputy commander of North American Aerospace Defense Command Alaska Region,” said on Twitter. 

First strike options are, according to military planners, of particular significance for the F-22 Raptor, given its technical focus on using stealth and air-to-air combat technology to attack heavily defended or “contested” enemy areas.

“If jets, no matter how technically advanced, tactically skilled and strategically sound in the air, can only leap from well-known base to well-known base, their first-strike threat is limited,” an Air Force statement from last year said.

Most air attack contingencies, it seems almost self-evident, are likely to include F-22 jets as among the first to strike; the aircraft is designed to engage and destroy enemy air threats and also use stealth to destroy enemy air defenses—creating an “air corridor” for other fighters. Although not intended to function as a higher altitude stealth bomber, an F-22 jet is well suited to a mission objective aimed at destroying enemy aircraft, including fighters, as well as air defenses.

Placing an F-22 jet potentially three hundred miles closer to a point of attack, as was done in this exercise, decreases the potential need for refueling, massively decreases time to attack and clearly helps mitigate the access and deployment challenges inherent to greatly dispersed or expansive geographical areas such as the Pacific theater or Arctic region.  

The Rapid Raptor program was actually developed by Air Force Pacific Command and has been expanded worldwide by Air Combat Command. It would make a lot of sense for this kind of program, which sent F-22 jets to Europe as far back as 2015, to grow worldwide to encompass key vast, difficult to reach areas in the Arctic.

Kris Osborn is the defense editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a master’s degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Image: Reuters

Eli Fuhrman

New Stimulus Check,

Even as the stimulus payments have proven to be key in generating an economic revival, it is also clear that not all Americans have seen the benefits.

The IRS is continuing to distribute the third-round of federal stimulus payments called for by the American Rescue Plan. Following the announcement that the IRS had begun distribution of the eighth batch of such payments, a total of 164 million payments worth roughly $386 billion have now been sent to eligible Americans.

There is evidence that these payments have played a significant role in helping to jumpstart an American economic recovery. These payments of up to $1,400 – the largest stimulus payments tied to COVID-19 relief so far – combined with greater rates of vaccination and the reopening of many businesses across the country are fueling an economic boom, with both consumer spending and household income on the rise.

These payments have also proven to be popular with many Americans, according to recent polling.

And even as the stimulus payments have proven to be key in generating an economic revival, it is also clear that not all Americans have seen the benefits. 61 percent of respondents to a recent Bankrate survey indicated that their $1,400 stimulus payment would only support their financial well-being for up to three months, with 21 percent of those respondents reporting that their payments would last only a month and an additional 14 percent believing that their payments would not meaningfully impact their financial situations.

In recognition of this, a growing number of Americans have been advocating for additional payments in the future. A number of online petitions calling for further payments, as well as ongoing recurring payments for the remainder of the pandemic, have received millions of signatures. In addition, a sizeable number of Congressional Democrats have also called on the Biden administration to pursue additional recurring stimulus payments to American families.

Despite this, the Biden administration has given no signals that it intends to pursue such payments in the near future, even as President Biden himself acknowledged the positive impact of stimulus payments in a recent address to Congress. More recently, White House press secretary threw administration support for a fourth-round of stimulus payments into question by suggesting that the issue would be left up to Congress, while also pointing out that additional payments would be difficult to pay for.

Ironically, the success of the stimulus payment program is likely to contribute to its ending. The economic revival brought on by the stimulus payments, including data suggesting that more Americans are using their third stimulus payments for activities such as paying down debt that was the case with previous payments, is likely to be used as ammunition against further stimulus payments.

Indeed, there has been little interest among Republicans for a fourth-round of stimulus payments, and it is unlikely that such a measure would generate support from the at least 10 Republican Senators that would be needed to prevent a filibuster.

Instead, the Biden administration appears set on generating support for its two proposed tax and spending bills that it argues will support long-term economic growth and revival.

Eli Fuhrman is a contributing writer for The National Interest.

David Forster

Amphibious Ships, United States

America needs a force structure tailored to handle multiple crises and flashpoints, one equipped with the right assets to tackle any contingency—political, military, or humanitarian.

An emboldened China seeks to carve out new spheres of influence, counter Western alliances, and become a major military power. Russia is modernizing its armed forces with advanced weaponry, expanding operations in the Arctic, and operating closer to our shores than ever. While the $715 billion defense budget President Joe Biden released earlier this month begins to address these challenges, one thing is for certain:

Without amphibious warships as a priority in this budget, we run the risk of losing an important strategic dynamic that has guided us through various crises.

Amphibious warships are like no other ship in our inventory. These ships—Wasp-class landing helicopter decks (LHDs), San Antonio-class landing platform/dock (LPDs), and America-class landing helicopter assault (LHAs)—are called the “Swiss Army Knives” of the fleet, and for good reason. They can launch a variety of aircraft, including helicopters, long-range tilt-rotor aircraft, and fifth-generation aircraft like the F-35B fighter. They can carry a full contingent of battle-ready Marines anywhere in the world. Their hospital and trauma facilities, along with their expansive cargo space, water production capabilities, and ability to launch and recover small boats, make them the ideal first responders in humanitarian crises. And their extensive C3I (command, control, communications, and intelligence) suites make them capable of coordinating the actions of other joint, allied and partner assets in a variety of scenarios.

Amphibious warships also possess the perfect capabilities to counter a multitude of threats, specifically in those areas experts call “the gray zones”—places where challengers seek to gain an advantage without provoking a traditional military response. Today’s gray zones are global, found in places like the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the Arabian Gulf, the Black Sea, and the Arctic. There, amphibious warships are proving their value every day through their inherent maneuverability and flexible nature. During a recent expeditionary warfare panel, Rear Adm. Sinclair Harris, former Vice Director of Operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff and former Commander, U.S. Fourth Fleet, cited specific examples of how amphibious warships are dominating in the gray zone: by defeating terrorists; conducting military training with our allies; navigating counterpiracy operations; and providing humanitarian assistance, including hurricane and tsunami relief.

Gen. David H. Berger, Commandant of the Marine Corps, has referred to the need for a “stand-in force,” one strategically positioned to deter an enemy. Thanks to their capabilities and survivability, amphibious warships are fully capable of providing a true stand-in ability inside hostile weapon engagement zones in addition to their established role as the United States’ primary “9-1-1” crisis response force. That’s why in today’s geopolitical environment, one filled with gray zones and emerging threats, we need amphibious warships—and we need more of them. Recently, the Commandant called for a minimum of thirty amphibious warships, with a national fleet consisting of ten LHDs/LHAs, twenty San Antonio-class LPDs (Flights I and II), and thirty to thirty-five Light Amphibious Warships.

However, there are currently only thirty-two L-class warships in the Navy fleet. Twelve of these ships are Whidbey Island/Harpers Ferry class dock landing ships (LSDs), which are rapidly approaching the end of their service lives. Beginning in FY23, the Navy intends to replace them with LPD-Flight-II ships, beginning with LPD 30, though the current decommissioning schedule is outpacing the rate of new ship construction. The Navy currently also only has seven LHDs, two LHAs, and eleven LPDs, with LPDs 28, 29, 30, and 31 under contract and in construction. Based on Gen. Berger’s recent statements, the Navy will require an additional LHA and five LPDs to meet the demands of the future fight.

For the upcoming fiscal year, the Navy is seeking contracts for LHA 9 and long-lead-time material for LPDs 32 and 33. Historically, the amphibious warship program has been drastically underfunded, taking the backseat to other Navy shipbuilding programs. Recent discussions of implementing a multi-ship procurement strategy in FY22 signal the potential for significant cost savings for the Navy and taxpayers alike. Multi-ship procurement is not a new concept to the Navy—most recently in 2019, Congress approved the two-ship aircraft carrier purchase of CVNs (nuclear aircraft carriers) 80 and 81, and experts predict that this purchase will yield at least $4 billion in savings compared to separate contracts. Not to mention the consistency of orders would ensure stability for the industrial base, which is still recovering after a challenging year due to disruption from the Covid-19 pandemic.

That’s why it’s imperative to move forward with a multi-ship purchase of these amphibious ships, specifically the LPDs, in the spirit of the president’s goal of a lean and efficient defense budget. If a multi-ship buy is approved by the Navy and Congress, it would not only bring down the cost on these ships, but it could speed up the timeline for building more ships that our Navy needs and ensure predictability for the suppliers whose work supports local economies across the country.

The amphibious warship industrial base consists of 750 companies spread out over forty-three states and over 240 Congressional districts. The men and women who make up this team provide critical parts and other materials worth in excess of $1.83 billion. And this production line is “hot”—it’s up and running, keeping thousands of skilled laborers employed at a time when our economy needs it most. It is in our nation’s best interests to ensure that the FY22 Budget keeps these production lines stable and fully funded through a multi-ship buy.

We must do everything we can to ensure these remarkable vessels will be ready to heed the call for years to come. Our nation needs a comprehensive, multitiered strategy to deal with myriad challenges, one capable of adapting to meet changing realities and emerging threats. But it also needs a force structure tailored to handle multiple crises and flashpoints, one equipped with the right assets to tackle any contingency—political, military, or humanitarian.

And in today’s complex environment, there is no better asset than the amphibious warship.

Capt. David Forster (U.S. Navy, Retired) is vice president of business development – sea for Rolls-Royce North America, Inc. He serves as chairman for the Amphibious Warship Industrial Base Coalition (AWIBC), which represents more than 750 businesses in forty-three states that supply parts, equipment and services for the construction and maintenance of U.S. Navy amphibious warships.

Image: Flickr.

Stephen Silver

Stimulus Payments,

According to USA Today, the money will be distributed in a pair of tranches: One now, and another a year from now. The money must be spent by the end of 2024.

The American Rescue Plan, when it was passed by Congress in March, allocated $350 billion in emergency funds for state and local governments-much more than the $150 billion allocated by the CARES Act in 2020. Now, that money is finally available.

Earlier this week, the Department of the Treasury launched a web portal, dedicated to what’s described as Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds.

“The Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds provide a substantial infusion of resources to help turn the tide on the pandemic, address its economic fallout, and lay the foundation for a strong and equitable recovery,” the website says.

The funding, per the website, has several objectives-to directly support coronavirus relief efforts, to replace revenue that the local governments lost in the pandemic, to help stabilize homes and businesses, and to deal with more systemic challenges.

“The Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds provide substantial flexibility for each government to meet local needs—including support for households, small businesses, impacted industries, essential workers, and the communities hardest hit by the crisis,” the site says.  “These funds can also be used to make necessary investments in water, sewer, and broadband infrastructure.”

Governments can click the “request funding” button on the site.

According to USA Today, the money will be distributed in a pair of tranches: One now, and another a year from now. The money must be spent by the end of 2024.

Reports earlier this month stated that many city and state governments weren’t exactly sure how getting the money from that program would work, and had questions as to what they were allowed to do. The portal, seemingly, will answer some of those questions. For instance, local governments cannot use the money to offset tax cuts enacted after March 3, a rule that, per USA Today, has promoted Ohio’s state attorney general to sue the administration.

In addition, water and sewer and broadband infrastructure are acceptable uses for the money from the Rescue Plan, although most other forms of infrastructure spending are not allowed under the plan.

“The money we're going to be distributing now is going to make it possible for an awful lot of educators, first-responders and sanitation workers to go back to work,” President Biden said Monday, according to the USA Today account.

“Today, the Biden Administration has taken a strong step to protect the livelihoods of the millions of frontline heroic workers who are the lifeblood of our economy,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who was instrumental in marshaling the votes for the package, said in a statement.

“This important announcement is a tribute to House Democrats’ commitment to robust state, local, territorial and tribal funding.  It will save jobs, prevent layoffs, keep services running and help our economy recover from crisis, while prioritizing equity and flexibility for governments.”

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Rachel Bucchino

Stimulus Scam,

A pair of Indonesian hackers were arrested last month after stealing $60 million from pandemic aid, money set aside by the federal government that served to help Americans struggling in financial turmoil due to the pandemic.

A pair of Indonesian hackers were arrested last month after stealing $60 million from pandemic aid, money set aside by the federal government that served to help Americans struggling in financial turmoil due to the pandemic.

More than 20 million Americans received text messages that directed them to several fraud U.S. government websites, authorities in the Southeast Asian nation said.

Recipients of the messages entered personal information, including social security numbers, to the websites to obtain a $2,000 payment from an unemployment assistance program. 

But the information was, instead, used to steal millions of dollars worth of pandemic relief.

“Some 30,000 U.S. citizens were scammed and the government's financial loss is up to $60 million,” East Java police chief Nico Afinta told CBS News.

The duo behind the international scam was arrested in March after the police were alerted by U.S. authorities. The pair could get up to nine years in prison under the nation’s electronic information law.

Police in Indonesia didn’t note the duration of the scam.

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has also uncovered that Americans have already lost more than $300 million in stimulus scams from the first and second rounds of coronavirus relief, a figure that’s likely to be larger as the third stimulus payments start reaching the pockets of Americans.

The FTC says it’s very common for scammers to use people’s personal information to get access to federal aid.

Experts have pointed out that scammers can easily obtain a person’s date of birth, workplace, family history, past addresses, email, and phone, just by purchasing the data from a data broker for a small fee. With this type of information, scammers can convince government agency workers that they are, in fact, legitimate, enabling them to steal the stimulus payment.

Other methods include scammers making unsolicited phone calls, as well as sending emails, texts, or social media messages, where scammers claim to be the Internal Revenue Service or another government agency and ask for credit card information. The IRS and Treasury Department, however, never ask people for that information.

Scammers have also pressured recipients into thinking that a purchase is required to receive a direct payment, and have also even used high-pressure tactics, offered expedited delivery of the payment for a fee, and threatened loss of the money if there isn’t immediate action.

Experts have encouraged Americans to be cautious in trusting others with banking information, as they could be associated with a massive stimulus scam.

Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.