The National Interest

Caleb Larson

Fighter Jets, Eurasia

Like the F-22 Raptor, the MiG 1.44 was supposed to do it all. On paper at least, the MiG combined stealthy characteristics with excellent maneuverability, which designers hoped would result in excellent fighting capabilities. 

Here's What You Need to Remember: In an interview with the Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik, a Russian defense commentator said that he believed China’s Chengdu J-20 makes use of some of the MiG 1.44’s features.

In response to the United State’s Advanced Tactical Fighter program — which spawned the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor — the Soviet Union initiated a crash project to produce a comparable fighter. What they got was the MiG 1.44.

Jack of All Trades

Like the F-22 Raptor, the MiG 1.44 was supposed to do it all. On paper at least, the MiG combined stealthy characteristics with excellent maneuverability, which designers hoped would result in excellent fighting capabilities. 

In addition to weight-saving materials used in airframe and wing construction, radar-absorbent materials were incorporated on the airframe, with special attention given to the airframe’s radar “hotspots” like the wing edges and engine intakes.

Rather than straight-through engine intakes, the MiG 1.44’s were curved, “serpentine” intakes that could bounce incoming radar inside them, hopefully dissipating or eliminating a return signal.

Despite a few stealthy characteristics the MiG 1.44 may not have been all that stealthy.

Stealthy — or Not?

Though intended as a stealthy jet, a few features call into question the degree to which the MiG 1.44 can be considered a stealthy design. One of these is the MiG’s canards.

Canards are control surfaces — essentially ‘winglets’ usually just aft or below the cockpit that provide additional lift or aid in control during certain flight scenarios. Although not incompatible with stealthy designs, they are not ideal and can amplify an airframe’s radar signature. 

Popular Science explains why airframes with a canard design are difficult to make stealthy. “Designing a stealthy canard is difficult, particularly if the canards are big enough to enable the airplane to recover quickly from an extreme nose-up attitude.” This is due to the extra surfaces that can return a radar signal — more surfaces, more return signal.

The issue is the MiG’s apparent canard-wing (mis)alignment. Stealthy jets, like the F-22 Raptor, minimize the radar reflection of control surfaces like wings and tail assembly. When viewed from a head-on position, the F-22’s tail assembly is ‘hidden’ behind the wings, reducing the number of surfaces that would be visible to radar.

The MiG 1.44 does not follow this design principle. When viewed from the front, the two canards are not on the same horizontal plane as the wings, creating a “louder” or more reflective radar signature — and possibly compromising its stealth characteristics.

Oddly, the MiG 1.44 had prominent pylons on its wings for attaching weapons or fuel tanks — which would have further decreased the jet’s stealth. The F-35 can optionally carry fuel or ordinance on its wings, but when not in use, the pylons are removed so as not to degrade stealth.

Another Stolen Bird?

In an interview with the Russian state-owned news agency Sputnik, a Russian defense commentator said that he believed China’s Chengdu J-20 makes use of some of the MiG 1.44’s features.

"In my opinion, the machine is based on the Russian MiG 1.44. That plane was created to compete with the PAK FA at the preliminary design stage, and made its maiden flight in 2000. The Chinese plane is very similar," the commentator explained.

“Although it hasn't been announced officially, the J-20 uses our AL-31F engine, developed by Salut, which the Chinese bought for half a billion dollars,” a nod to Russia and China’s budding — if contentious — defense relationship.

All for Naught?

Russia’s stealth ambitions are…grounded. One of their newest heavy fighters/interceptors, the Su-57, has had a number of teething issues. The Su-57 fleet totals only about a dozen airframes. Though certainly a more refined design than the MiG 1.44, stealth appears to be easier to say than to do.

Caleb Larson is a Defense Writer with The National Interest. He holds a Master of Public Policy and covers U.S. and Russian security, European defense issues, and German politics and culture.

Peter Suciu

Carrier-Killer,

The PLAAF conducted "simulated missile attacks" on the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) last month.

Here's What You Need to Remember: While in this recent PLAAF drill the H-6 bombers may have been out of range, that may not be the case in the coming months. The H-6Ks, which are a Chinese copy of the Cold War Soviet Tu-15 bomber, could be armed with hypersonic weapons, which could be used against targets upwards of 3,000 km (1,864 miles) away.

Last September the China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) posted a video via its Weibo social media account that showed a simulated attack on the U.S. military base on Guam. Titled "The god of war H-6K goes on the Attack!," the 15-second video, which was noted for its high production values and even its use of dramatic music, featured a Chinese heavy bomber attacking Andersen Air Force Base.

A Growing Threat

Now it seems that the PLAAF has taken it a bit further, as it conducted "simulated missile attacks" on the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) last month. According to The Aviationist, as many as twenty-eight aircraft including as many as eight H-6 bombers "intruded" into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) between Jan. 23 and 24 – just three days after President Joe Biden took office.

While the Chinese aircraft remained more than 250 nautical miles from the U.S. carrier and its strike group, pilots of the H-6K bombers could be heard in cockpit conversations confirming orders for the simulated targeting and release of anti-ship missiles, The Financial Times reported. The U.S. warships would have been outside the estimated range of the YJ-12 anti-ship cruise missiles carried on the H-6K.

"The Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group closely monitored all People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) activity, and at no time did they pose a threat to U.S. Navy ships, aircraft, or Sailors," U.S. Indo-Pacific Command spokesperson Capt. Mike Kafka said via an emailed statement.

"The PLA activities highlighted here, are the latest in a string of aggressive and destabilizing actions," Kafka added. "These actions reflect a continued PLA attempt to use its military as a tool to intimidate or coerce those operating in international waters and airspace, to include their neighbors and those with competing territorial claims. The United States will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, demonstrating resolve through our operational presence throughout the region."

South China Sea Tensions

The U.S. Navy had announced the same day as the Chinese PLAAF's drills that the Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group (TRCSG) entered the South China Sea, Jan. 23, to conduct routine operations. TRCSG was on its scheduled deployment to the U.S. 7th Fleet to ensure freedom of the seas, build partnerships that foster maritime security, and conduct a wide range of operations.

TRCSG consists of USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 11, the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52), Destroyer Squadron 23, and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers USS Russell (DDG 59) and USS John Finn (DDG 113).

Theodore Roosevelt departed San Diego for a scheduled deployment to the Indo-Pacific, Dec. 23.

While in this recent PLAAF drill the H-6 bombers may have been out of range, that may not be the case in the coming months. The H-6Ks, which are a Chinese copy of the Cold War Soviet Tu-15 bomber, could be armed with hypersonic weapons, which could be used against targets upwards of 3,000 km (1,864 miles) away. The PLAAF has been modifying a small number of the H-6s to carry a new anti-ship missile, possibly a variant of the DF-21D ballistic anti-ship missile. That could pose a serious danger to the U.S. Navy in the western Pacific.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com. This article is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Wikipedia.

Trevor Filseth

Stimulus Payment Help,

If you qualify for a payment and haven’t yet received one, it’s possible that your check has been misplaced, lost in the mail, or simply hasn’t been delivered yet.

Here's What You Need to Remember: To reiterate, there is no rush – the payments do not expire, and the IRS is still mailing out the third batch of stimulus checks, so it is possible that yours is still on the way. However, almost nine out of every ten of them have already arrived, so it might be worth checking in any case

It has now been more than two months since the March 2021 American Rescue Plan Act sent out the third round of $1400 stimulus checks.

By now, it is estimated that 165 million payments have been sent out, roughly ninety percent of the total, and checks will continue to be mailed in smaller numbers for the rest of the year. However, if you qualify for a payment and haven’t yet received one, it’s possible that your check has been misplaced, lost in the mail, or simply hasn’t been delivered yet.

In this case, it might be useful to request a payment trace from the IRS. Here’s how.

1) Make Sure You Qualify

Before engaging the services of the IRS, it’s helpful to make sure that you qualify for payments.

Depending on your circumstances, you might also qualify for additional payments. The IRS has begun issuing “plus-up” payments supplementing the regular stimulus check, based on your 2020 tax return. If you had a child during the pandemic, for instance, you probably qualify for a plus-up payment.

2) Use the Get My Payment Tool

The IRS has provided a web tool updating users on the status of their stimulus checks. To use it, you need to enter your Social Security number, your address, and your date of birth. Once this is done, the IRS will display the status of your check and whether it has been dispatched or not.

 If the site says that your check has not yet been mailed out (or deposited directly), you have nothing to worry about – except bureaucratic inertia. If, however, the stimulus payment is recorded as having been dispatched several weeks ago, you might be in trouble.

3) Wait

To keep people from delaying them with unnecessary requests, the IRS has requested that a waiting period be observed before a payment trace is requested.

Therefore, you should wait for the specified time after the date the IRS says the payment was dispatched. For direct deposit, this cooling-off period is five days, and for domestic addresses, it’s four weeks. Forwarding addresses are six weeks, while international addresses are nine weeks.

To reiterate, there is no rush – the payments do not expire, and the IRS is still mailing out the third batch of stimulus checks, so it is possible that yours is still on the way. However, almost nine out of every ten of them have already arrived, so it might be worth checking in any case.

On the other hand, if you never received a stimulus check from the earlier rounds of payments – one in March 2020, and a second in December 2020 – and you have determined that you are eligible, it’s certainly time to request a payment trace.

4) Request a Payment Trace

If the waiting period has been observed and there is still no sign of your payment, it is time to request the trace. To do this, call the IRS at (800) 919 9835 or mail or fax the agency’s Form 3911 to their office.

5) Wait Some More

Fortunately, if your direct deposit never arrived and you never cashed your initial stimulus check, the IRS will mail you a replacement. The agency claims that this will on average take another six weeks, although the office’s staffing shortages and the ongoing mailing of stimulus checks and plus-up payments could delay it longer.

Lastly, if the missing check arrives during this time, the IRS instructs you to destroy it, rather than trying to cash the same check twice.

Trevor Filseth is a news reporter and writer for the National Interest. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

Caleb Larson

Russian Air Force, Eurasia

Although still under development, the PAK DA will undoubtedly be Russia’s deadliest bomber. Once fielded, the PAK DA will eventually replace both the Tu-160 supersonic bomber and the earlier Tu-95.

Here's What You Need To Remember: If Russian military history can teach us anything, the Tu-22M, -95 and -160 will probably be maintained and upgraded for many years to come. When and if the PAK DA becomes operational, it would put an important arrow in Russia’s quiver—a theoretically very capable stealth bomber.

Most military equipment in Russian arsenals today is legacy Soviet hardware. Russian bombers are no exception. Although some airframes in Russian inventories are quite old, they remain potent thanks to airframe, electronics and radar upgrades, along with improvements in standoff missiles and precision-guided munitions.  Here are Russia’s most dangerous bombers.

Tu-95 “Bear”

In 1950, Andrei Tupolev was tasked with designing the Soviet Union’s new long-range heavy bomber, the Tu-95. It was to be able to carry a 24,200-pound payload with a range of nearly 5,000 miles—and thus threaten important targets in the United States.

Tupolev needed to balance speed and performance with range. Jet engines at the time would given a long-range strategic bomber the needed speed, but guzzled fuel, limiting range. Although Tupolev was already a highly successful designer, he tasked a group of German and Austrian aircraft engineers that had been captured after World War II with the design. They designed the most powerful turboprop engine ever made, the venerable KN-12.

Using two sets of contra-rotating propellers, the KN-12 is still used on the Tu-95 today. Although the engines are extremely powerful, the are also incredibly loud. Still, when mission requirements are massive payload rather than stealthiness, the Bear can do the job.

Repeated upgrades have greatly extended the airframe’s service life, and increasingly sophisticated stand-off cruise missiles have kept the Tu-95 potent. It is planned to operate until the 2040s.

Tu-22M “Backfire”

Sometimes called “Backfire” by NATO, the Tu-22M variant was developed to address design deficiencies inherent in the Tu-22 parent design. The Tu-22M uses a variable-sweep wing design that provided a balance between favorable landing and take-off handling, with good cruising and high-speed flight.

The Tu-22M carries a respectable bomb load, and can fly at a maximum speed of Mach 1.88. Interestingly, it has a twin-barreled 23mm cannon in the tail that is remotely controlled.

The introduction of the Tu-22M in the early 1970s was an odd time for supersonic bombers, as the superiority of ICBMs was widely recognized. Despite the Tu-22M’s technical obsolescence, continuous upgrades to radar and electronics, combined with improved air-to-surface missiles have kept the Tu-22M platform relevant.

Tu-160 “Blackjack”

The Tu-160 is truly a beast of an aircraft with several firsts and world records to its name. Visually similar to the Tu-22M or the American Rockwell B-1 Lancer, the Tu-160 was the last strategic bomber designed by the Soviet Union.

Also known as the “Blackjack” it is the heaviest bomber in service in any country, and tops out at Mach 2.05. In contrast to the B-1 Lancer, the Blackjack is more of a stand-off weapons platform rather than a traditional bomber, although its tow large weapons bays allow it to carry a payload of 88,000 pounds and allows the delivery of conventional, precision, and nuclear munitions. The Blackjack is the only Soviet bomber designed without any defensive weapons.

Again, upgrades to radar and targeting, along with the restart of airframe production in 2019 is keeping the Blackjack airborne, probably for many more years to come.

Tupolev PAK DA

Although still under development, the PAK DA will undoubtedly be Russia’s deadliest bomber. Once fielded, the PAK DA will eventually replace both the Tu-160 supersonic bomber and the earlier Tu-95.

PAK DA is essentially a next-gen long-range stealth bomber, similar to the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit bomber. Like the B-2, the PAK DA will probably have a flying wing design, although this is only known from promotional material. No known prototypes currently exist. This would be the first truly Russian bomber— not simply a legacy Soviet design, or improvements upon them.

The first PAK DA prototype flight was delayed from 2019 to sometime in the 2021–2023 timeframe. As already pointed out, upgraded variants of the Tu-160 are currently conducting flight trials, so it will likely be some time before we have any photos or more concrete info on Russia’s first true stealth bomber.

Future Flight

If Russian military history can teach us anything, the Tu-22M, -95 and -160 will probably be maintained and upgraded for many years to come. When and if the PAK DA becomes operational, it would put an important arrow in Russia’s quiver—a theoretically very capable stealth bomber. Still, if that can be managed affordably remains to be seen. The relatively low price of oil has severely constrained Russian military spending, and designing a brand-new stealth platform is no easy thing.

Caleb Larson holds a Master of Public Policy degree from the Willy Brandt School of Public Policy. He lives in Berlin and writes on U.S. and Russian foreign and defense policy, German politics, and culture.

Image: Flickr

Caleb Larson

Tanks, Europe

It's hard to compete with that tried and true German engineering. 

Here's What You Need to Remember:

The Leopard I was West Germany’s first post-war domestically designed and manufactured tank. The German designs was good—so good, that it is still in service with a number of countries. Here’s why.

Post-War Blues

In post-war West Germany, the Bundeswehr, the West German Army, was equipped with American-supplied M47 and M48 Patton Main Battle Tanks. Though capable, it was increasingly obvious that the Pattons were becoming outmatched by Warsaw Pact armored firepower and were in serious danger of becoming obsolete.

West Germany had considered buying the larger British Chieftain tank, or the American M60, 45 and 51 tons respectively. They were both rejected by Bonn as too heavy and not mobile enough. So West Germans decided to build something at home—something that could be the new European standard.

Design-a-Tank

The design rules were stringent: the tank had to have a high power-to-weight ratio of 30 horsepower per ton, have onboard protection from radiation and chemical weapons, and be able to withstand direct hits from 20 millimeter cannon fire.

The emphasis was centered on high mobility and high firepower, with armored protection coming second. German designers settled on a British-made 105 millimeter tank gun to provide the necessary firepower.

Tactical planning at the time assumed that shaped charges—explosive projectiles that can shoot superplasticized jets of metal through thick amounts of armor—could not be adequately defended against. Doctrine maintained that if you couldn’t resist them, then instead hopefully outrun and out shoot the enemy.

The result was the Leopard I. That tank became a legend and was quickly snapped up by many NATO member countries—Australia, Belgium, Canada, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Turkey were allured by the relatively high speeds—40 miles per hour—and the price point—$250,000.

Upgrades

Incremental upgrades were given to the machine throughout its life—armored skirts to protect the tracks and a barrel sleeve to better regulate internal barrel temperatures when firing. Germany also added improved armor, computerized fire control, and bolt-on composite or plastic armor panels, which has resulted in a dizzying number of Leopard I variants.

Thanks to an attractive price point and a plethora of upgrade choices, the Leopard I remains in use with a number of countries worldwide. Leopard’s company website says that the Leopard I has been an “international success story…Since 1965, more than 4,700 units have been manufactured and remain in service in eleven countries on five continents.”

What makes the Leopard still attractive over half a century after inception is its customization and upgradability. “Thanks to its continuous upgrading and modernization process, the LEOPARD 1 remains a state-of-the-art design. Users of earlier versions have the choice of several retrofit kits to adapt the product configuration, putting corresponding emphasis on firepower, protection, mobility and logistics as needed.”

Still, the Leopard I platform did face some challenges while under Turkish command in Syria.

Twenty-First-Century

The Leopard website probably summarizes the future of the Leopard I best stating, “the modular design allows the deployment of this battle tank well into the middle of the 21st century, always well adapted for any threat scenario.” Time will tell, but the Leopard I probably won’t drive off into the sunset just yet.

Caleb Larson is a Defense Writer with The National Interest. He holds a Master of Public Policy and covers U.S. and Russian security, European defense issues, and German politics and culture.

Image: Reuters

Caleb Larson

Fighter Jets,

Russia called. They want their fighter jet back. 

Here's What You Need to Remember: It is obvious why China would want to domestically produce the Su-27 Flanker—it’s agile, has a high top speed, and good range. In fact, the Su-27 is supermaneuverable. For a time, it was the airframe of choice for the Russian Knights, an aerobatic demonstration team similar to the U.S. Navy’s Blue Angels.

China’s J-11 looks like an exact copy of Russia’s Su-27. And it almost is—but it’s nowhere near as reliable or capable. 

Export Time

The Su-27 was developed by the Soviet Union at the tail end of the Cold War and was intended to play more or less the same role as the American F-14 or F-15 fighters—a fast and maneuverable air escort or air superiority fighter. Moscow’s Flankers would have protected the Soviet Union’s long-range bombers like the Tu-22, Tu-95, and Tu-160. Today, it still serves in this role with the Russian Air Force. 

It is obvious why China would want to domestically produce the Su-27 Flanker—it’s agile, has a high top speed, and good range. In fact, the Su-27 is supermaneuverable. For a time, it was the airframe of choice for the Russian Knights, an aerobatic demonstration team similar to the U.S. Navy’s Blue Angels.

It is also well-armed with ten external hardpoints for an extensive weapons loadout, and an internally housed 30 millimeter cannon. One of the critical drawbacks of the Su-27 is that it is not capable of aerial refueling and so can’t feed its thirsty twin-engine design. 

In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s dissolution, a cash-strapped Russia turned to the outside world for potential weapons export customers and found a receptive client—China. 

Production

Beijing received seventy-six fighters from Moscow in 1992 to replace their aging Soviet-supplied fighters. They were liked so much that China negotiated a deal with Russia which meant up to two-hundred licensed copies of the Su-27 could be manufactured in China using Russian-supplied kits. 

Fast forward to 2003, and Chinese copies of the Su-27—the J-11—are being built, possibly without Russian consent. It is possible that these airframes were reverse-engineered copies not covered by the earlier licensing agreement. 

Russian media raised alarm bells. In an interview, the director of Rosoboronexport said that “the Chinese side outwardly copied the Su-27 is what the Russian side was talking about. Maybe this is a fact…” It may be hard to prove definitively, as outside appearances do not necessarily indicate what the “guts” of the airframe are made of. 

Engine Light On

Two crucial pieces of equipment not covered by the technology transfer agreement between the two countries were engines and avionics.

China had struggled for many years to master domestic engine production and the Su-27/J-11 was no exception. Early copies suffered from poor engine reliability. Russian defense experts were quoted as saying that “China is still dependent on us [Russia] and will stay that way for some time to come.” 

Some of the lessons learned from the J-11 were incorporated into the J-15, another knock-off copy of the Su-27, though that airframe is also unreliable and dangerous for pilots and aircraft carriers. 

Knock-off

Even though the J-11 designs are capable, their capabilities are also somewhat limited. The designs that they were based on are from the late 1970s—making them nearly forty years old. They are also not stealthy—and crucially do not support aerial refueling which is a severe hindrance. 

Still, there is absolutely no question that the J-11 draws very heavily from the Su-27 Flanker design. But at this point, considering the age of the design, it probably doesn’t matter much. 

Caleb Larson is a Defense Writer with The National Interest. He holds a Master of Public Policy and covers U.S. and Russian security, European defense issues, and German politics and culture.

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Ethen Kim Lieser

Stimulus Payment,

It now appears that millions of Americans will be eligible for new payments this coming fall thanks to health insurance companies.

Here's What You Need to Remember: The other “stimulus check” will enter eligible Americans’ bank accounts beginning July 15. The White House has stated that approximately forty million families will start receiving monthly $250 or $300 payments till the end of the year from the expanded child tax credits.

The $1,400 coronavirus stimulus payments under President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan that are currently being fast-tracked to financially struggling Americans may just be the beginning of other “stimulus” checks.

It now appears that millions of Americans will be eligible for new payments this coming fall thanks to health insurance companies. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, private insurance companies will eventually distribute $2.1 billion in rebates via the Affordable Care Act.

Throughout the ongoing pandemic, it was made mandatory that health insurers spend at least 80 percent of premium revenue on health-care claims or quality-improvement activities.

If they failed to follow the guidelines, they are on the hook to refund a part of the premiums they received.

The latest estimates suggest that nearly eleven million Americans will get some form of a refund, which comes out to about $300 for those individuals who paid for their own health insurance.

For people with employer health insurance coverage, the refunds could range from $100 to $130.

Keep in mind that among the proposals in Biden’s highly ambitious American Families Plan is an indefinite extension of the expanded Obamacare subsidies.

Moreover, don’t forget about two other sizeable payments that are headed to eligible Americans in the coming weeks.

According to a Treasury report, roughly 7.3 million tax returns already processed by the Internal Revenue Service qualify for unemployment tax refunds. This is thanks to Biden’s legislation that was able to waive federal tax on up to $10,200 of unemployment benefits—or $20,400 for married couples filing jointly—that were received in 2020. The IRS has confirmed that it will issue the refunds automatically to taxpayers who qualify.

However, take note that households with $150,000 or more in income are ineligible for the new benefits.

The other “stimulus check” will enter eligible Americans’ bank accounts beginning July 15. The White House has stated that approximately forty million families will start receiving monthly $250 or $300 payments till the end of the year from the expanded child tax credits.

Biden’s stimulus bill enabled the expansion of these particular credits that generally allowed families to claim a credit of up to $2,000 for children under the age of seventeen. But they now have been extended to even more families—and they qualify to collect as much as $3,600 per year for a child under the age of six and up to $3,000 for children between ages six and seventeen.

“The American Rescue Plan is delivering critical tax relief to middle class and hard-pressed working families with children,” Biden said in a statement.

“For working families with children, this tax cut sends a clear message: help is here,” he added.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

Trevor Filseth

Stimulus Payment Help,

By now, it is estimated that 165 million payments have been sent out, roughly ninety percent of the total, and checks will continue to be mailed in smaller numbers for the rest of the year.

Here's What You Need to Remember: Fortunately, if your direct deposit never arrived and you never cashed your initial stimulus check, the IRS will mail you a replacement. The agency claims that this will on average take another six weeks, although the office’s staffing shortages and the ongoing mailing of stimulus checks and plus-up payments could delay it longer.

It has now been more than two months since the March 2021 American Rescue Plan Act sent out the third round of $1400 stimulus checks.

By now, it is estimated that 165 million payments have been sent out, roughly ninety percent of the total, and checks will continue to be mailed in smaller numbers for the rest of the year. However, if you qualify for a payment and haven’t yet received one, it’s possible that your check has been misplaced, lost in the mail, or simply hasn’t been delivered yet.

In this case, it might be useful to request a payment trace from the IRS. Here’s how.

1) Make Sure You Qualify

Before engaging the services of the IRS, it’s helpful to make sure that you qualify for payments.

Depending on your circumstances, you might also qualify for additional payments. The IRS has begun issuing “plus-up” payments supplementing the regular stimulus check, based on your 2020 tax return. If you had a child during the pandemic, for instance, you probably qualify for a plus-up payment.

2) Use the Get My Payment Tool

The IRS has provided a web tool updating users on the status of their stimulus checks. To use it, you need to enter your Social Security number, your address, and your date of birth. Once this is done, the IRS will display the status of your check and whether it has been dispatched or not.

 If the site says that your check has not yet been mailed out (or deposited directly), you have nothing to worry about – except bureaucratic inertia. If, however, the stimulus payment is recorded as having been dispatched several weeks ago, you might be in trouble.

3) Wait

To keep people from delaying them with unnecessary requests, the IRS has requested that a waiting period be observed before a payment trace is requested.

Therefore, you should wait for the specified time after the date the IRS says the payment was dispatched. For direct deposit, this cooling-off period is five days, and for domestic addresses, it’s four weeks. Forwarding addresses are six weeks, while international addresses are nine weeks.

To reiterate, there is no rush – the payments do not expire, and the IRS is still mailing out the third batch of stimulus checks, so it is possible that yours is still on the way. However, almost nine out of every ten of them have already arrived, so it might be worth checking in any case.

On the other hand, if you never received a stimulus check from the earlier rounds of payments – one in March 2020, and a second in December 2020 – and you have determined that you are eligible, it’s certainly time to request a payment trace.

4) Request a Payment Trace

If the waiting period has been observed and there is still no sign of your payment, it is time to request the trace. To do this, call the IRS at (800) 919 9835 or mail or fax the agency’s Form 3911 to their office.

5) Wait Some More

Fortunately, if your direct deposit never arrived and you never cashed your initial stimulus check, the IRS will mail you a replacement. The agency claims that this will on average take another six weeks, although the office’s staffing shortages and the ongoing mailing of stimulus checks and plus-up payments could delay it longer.

Lastly, if the missing check arrives during this time, the IRS instructs you to destroy it, rather than trying to cash the same check twice.

Trevor Filseth is a news reporter and writer for the National Interest. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

Ethen Kim Lieser

Stimulus Payment Bonus,

In all, the IRS already has made more than six million of these supplemental payments this year and has put many minds at ease by confirming that it will continue to automatically calculate and send out these bonus checks.

Here's What You Need to Remember: These potentially generous payments are also from Biden’s stimulus bill, which waived federal tax on up to $10,200 of unemployment benefits—or $20,400 for married couples filing jointly—that were collected last year.

The Internal Revenue Service has confirmed that a sizeable number of the most recent batches of coronavirus stimulus checks under President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan are the so-called “plus-up” or supplemental payments.

Take note that the latest ninth batch of checks included four hundred sixty thousand of these payments and some are still likely in transit if they were mailed off using USPS.

According to the IRS, these particular funds are “for people who earlier in March received payments based on their 2019 tax returns but are eligible for a new or larger payment based on their recently processed 2020 tax returns.”

For example, the agency continued, they “could include a situation where a person’s income dropped in 2020 compared to 2019, or a person had a new child or dependent on their 2020 tax return, and other situations.”

In all, the IRS already has made more than six million of these supplemental payments this year and has put many minds at ease by confirming that it will continue to automatically calculate and send out these bonus checks.

Keep in mind that another large portion of the recent batches went to recent tax filers who previously did not have the necessary information on file at the agency.

“Although payments are automatic for most people, the IRS continues to urge people who don’t normally file a tax return and haven’t received Economic Impact Payments to file a 2020 tax return to get all the benefits they’re entitled to under the law, including tax credits such as the 2020 Recovery Rebate Credit, the Child Tax Credit, and the Earned Income Tax Credit,” the IRS stated.

The May 17 Tax Day deadline may have already passed, but the agency has said that Americans can still get their hands on the missing payments. All they have to do is apply for an extension of time to file and complete all the forms by the October 15 tax-filing extension deadline. However, know that taxpayers are still responsible for interest and penalties that could continue to accrue on any tax owed.

Another government-issued check to be on the lookout for is from the tax refunds on 2020 unemployment benefits, and they are expected to start landing in eligible bank accounts beginning this month.

These potentially generous payments are also from Biden’s stimulus bill, which waived federal tax on up to $10,200 of unemployment benefits—or $20,400 for married couples filing jointly—that were collected last year.

The IRS recently announced that it will automatically adjust tax returns if individuals qualify for a refund.

“Because the change occurred after some people filed their taxes, the IRS will take steps in the spring and summer to make the appropriate change to their return, which may result in a refund. The first refunds are expected to be made in May and will continue into the summer,” the IRS said.

“Any resulting overpayment of tax will be either refunded or applied to other outstanding taxes owed,” it added.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

Rachel Bucchino

Stimulus Check,

If a fourth stimulus payment or recurring direct checks passes, it’s likely that it would be approved by budget reconciliation, a legislative procedure that doesn’t require a single Republican vote.

Just last week, a group of House Democrats revived a party push for President Joe Biden to pass a massive relief measure that would send recurring stimulus payments to eligible Americans until the end of the pandemic.

Seven Democrats, all of which are members of the House Ways and Means Committee, wrote to Biden, urging him to implement “recurring direct payments tied to economic conditions,” since direct relief is one of the “most effective” forms of federal aid available.

The lawmakers continued, “The pandemic has served as a stark reminder that families and workers need certainty in a crisis. They deserve to know they can put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads. They should not be at the mercy of constantly shifting legislative timelines and ad hoc solutions.”

The Democrats who wrote to Biden include Reps. Jimmy Gomez (Calif.), Gwen Moore (Wis.), Earl Blumenauer (Ore.) and Judy Chu (Calif.).

A number of congressional Democrats have also written to the president in the past over providing Americans with a fourth stimulus check or recurring payments, bringing the total number of Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill fighting for additional direct relief to nearly 80.

So, the idea of another direct payment in the future might not be “dead,” yet.

Democrats contend that millions of Americans need more federal relief, as many individuals remain unemployed or unable to pay for essentials, like food and rent, due to decreased wages or cut hours.

Many polls have also indicated that voters generally support additional aid from the government. For example, a poll from Data for Progress found that 65 percent of voters, including 54 percent of Republicans, back a $2,000 recurring payment for every eligible American until the end of the pandemic. A petition has also been launched on Change.org, calling for $2,000 monthly checks that has over 2.2 million signatures.

Although several Democrats have called on Biden to consider implementing the measure, lawmakers behind the effort have provided little information on the specifics of it, like how large the payments should be and who would qualify.

The push is also likely a nonstarter, as moderate Democrats have expressed little interest in the provision and as congressional Republicans balk at offering Americans more direct aid. GOP lawmakers cite the labor shortages across the country that’s left businesses scrambling for people to work. Republicans argue that the stimulus money has disincentivized people from returning back to the labor market.

If a fourth stimulus payment or recurring direct checks passes, it’s likely that it would be approved by budget reconciliation, a legislative procedure that doesn’t require a single Republican vote. But even in that instance, the entire Democratic caucus in the Senate would have to unite in support of the measure, which will be an uphill battle as lawmakers like Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a centrist, are pushing for bipartisan support on any future bill that’s part of Biden’s Build Back Better agenda. 

But Biden hasn’t even indicated whether he would support a fourth stimulus payment or recurring checks. 

Earlier this month, however, White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked whether Americans will see additional direct relief in any future legislation and she replied, “We'll see what members of Congress propose, but those are not free.”

That comment appears to leave it up to Congress to consider the measure.

Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.

Ethen Kim Lieser

Child Tax Credit,

Biden’s stimulus bill enabled the expansion of child tax credits that generally allowed families to claim a credit of up to $2,000 for children under the age of seventeen.

Here's What You Need to Remember: “If passed, the families of tens of millions of children will continue to get regular payments,” she said. “Obviously, we’re continuing to evaluate what their needs are—to continue to get the pandemic under control, put people back to work, but we think that’s a proposal with a long-term benefit.”

In just a few weeks, nearly all of the $1,400 coronavirus stimulus checks will have been disbursed to eligible Americans under the American Rescue Plan.

But President Joe Biden’s administration is making sure that financially struggling parents will continue to get the help they need via the expanded child tax credit. 

It appears that this new benefit from the $1.9 trillion legislation could not come at a better time, as millions of Americans are still feeling the financial effects of the ongoing pandemic.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, it shows that about thirty-four million people live in poverty in the United States. And to lift twelve million of them out of such living conditions, a recent report by the Economic Security Project said that more rounds of stimulus checks could do just that.

It is true that the child tax credits aren’t technically stimulus checks, but the total amount sent out to Americans will easily eclipse the current third round’s $1,400 payments.

Know that Biden’s stimulus bill enabled the expansion of child tax credits that generally allowed families to claim a credit of up to $2,000 for children under the age of seventeen.

But now, they qualify to collect as much as $3,600 per year for a child under the age of six and up to $3,000 for children between ages six and seventeen. That means these parents can collect a $250 or $300 payment each month through the end of the year.

Moreover, eighteen-year-olds and full-time college students who are twenty-four and under can give parents a one-time $500 payment.

“About 90 percent of families with children will get this new tax relief automatically, starting in July,” Biden said in a statement.

“For working families with children, this tax cut sends a clear message: help is here,” he added.

Another notable perk from the American Rescue Plan is that parents who pay out of pocket for child care services now can claim those expenses in tax credits of $8,000 for one child and the maximum of $16,000 for two or more children.

Also, keep in mind that the child tax credit could be extended well beyond this year to 2025, as Biden and dozens of Democratic lawmakers are pushing for this to become a reality through the American Families Plan.

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki in a recent press briefing touted the bill’s potential reach if it receives Congress approval.  

“If passed, the families of tens of millions of children will continue to get regular payments,” she said. “Obviously, we’re continuing to evaluate what their needs are—to continue to get the pandemic under control, put people back to work, but we think that’s a proposal with a long-term benefit.”

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article first appeared earlier this year.

Image: Reuters.

TNI Staff

F-14 Tomcat,

With the end of the Cold War and declining budgets, the Navy simply could not afford to keep the incredibly maintenance intensive and unreliable Tomcat on the carrier flight deck.

Here's What You Need to Remember: The successor to the Super Hornet could have capabilities that resemble the F-14 Tomcat in terms of speed and range. However, the similarities will likely end there. The Tomcat was an antiquated and unreliable beast in the late 1980s and it simply was not up to par during the 1990s and the early 2000s in terms of its avionics.

The United States Navy retired the venerable Grumman F-14 Tomcat in 2006 after more than three decades in service. However, the Tomcat’s demise has left gaps in the carrier air wing that are only now being felt.

With the end of the Cold War and declining budgets, the Navy simply could not afford to keep the incredibly maintenance intensive and unreliable Tomcat on the carrier flight deck. Moreover, with the demise of the Soviet threat, the Tomcat’s primary mission of fleet defense has fallen by the wayside and the venerable jet was increasingly used in the strike role. But while the F-14 proved to be a competent strike aircraft, the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet was superior in most respects to the aging Tomcat as a strike fighter in the post-Cold War era. Particularly, the Super Hornet was far more reliable and cost effective—and with its much more modern avionics, it was mostly a more capable aircraft. However, there are still some gaps that the Super Hornet could not fill.

While the Super Hornet with its exceptional Raytheon AN/APG-79 active electronically scanned array radar, Harris AN/ALQ-214 Integrated Defensive Electronic Countermeasures (IDECM) Block IV system, advanced datalinks and other systems is a potent war machine, the F/A-18E/F has two weaknesses that the Navy has to address for the future which the service divested with the retirement of the Tomcat. Those two factors are range and speed—both of which the Super Hornet falls short on as new threats emerge in Western Pacific and the North Atlantic.

The Navy gave up the sheer speed and the range of the Tomcat because the service did not have to contend with the prospect of fending off hordes of Soviet Tupolev Tu-22M Backfire bombers and their cruise missiles in the post-Soviet era. The F-14, of course, was originally the linchpin of the Navy’s Outer Air Battle concept that was designed to prevent a Soviet bomber force from destroying a carrier battle group. While that threat more or less evaporated after 1991, it is starting to reemerge as China rises and Russia reasserts itself on the world stage.

China is building a potent air launched anti-ship cruise missiles along with aircraft to carry those weapons. Meanwhile, the once-dormant Russian bomber force is back—though not in the numbers of the Soviet era. Moreover, with the emergence of new adversary stealth aircraft—some of which have the capability to fly very high and very fast—which are also armed with cruise missiles, the Navy will need the range and speed that the Tomcat offered to fend off those threats. The F/A-18E/F can do the job—but only to an extent.

Indeed, the Navy is looking at a platform or platforms—potentially a family of systems—that will offer greatly increased speed and range compared to the Super Hornet for its Next Generation Air Dominance study to replace the F/A-18E/F after 2040. “I tend to think of it not only as range, but as reach; not only how far my airplane flies, but how far do my weapons go on top of that,” Capt. Richard Brophy, who heads the Chief of Naval Operations N98 air warfare division’s NGAD Analysis of Alternatives team, said last year during a panel at the Office of Naval Research’s science and technology expo. “Reach also gets into propulsion, and when we look at propulsion, I’m looking for efficiency. The longer I can fly without having to go get gas, the better.”

While speed and range are priorities, the Navy remains skeptical of stealth technology as it always has. “We certainly need survivability. Stealth is just one piece of the survivability equation,” Brophy said. “I kind of look at stealth as sort of like chaff and flares. It’s not going to defeat [the enemy] every time, but it will help. Stealth is part of what any future design — if you look at any country, they’re going that way. So yes, it would probably be part of it.”

Thus, the successor to the Super Hornet could have capabilities that resemble the F-14 Tomcat in terms of speed and range. However, the similarities will likely end there. The Tomcat was an antiquated and unreliable beast in the late 1980s and it simply was not up to par during the 1990s and the early 2000s in terms of its avionics. New sensor, data-link and propulsion technologies—along with developments such as artificial intelligence—means that while a future NGAD aircraft might fill some of the gaps left behind by the F-14, it will not be a Tomcat.

This piece was first featured in 2018 and is being republished due to reader's interest. 

Image: Wikimedia Commons.

Stephen Silver

No Stimulus Check,

In addition, The Washington Post reported that Biden has been criticized for dropping promises of student debt forgiveness from his likely budget proposal, among other campaign promises from 2020.

Biden budget does not include a new round of stimulus checksThe Biden Administration is preparing its first fiscal year budget, the New York Times reported Thursday, citing leaked documents. The official budget will be unveiled Friday, ahead of the holiday weekend, and will include $6 trillion in spending in the fiscal year.

The president’s proposed American Families Plan and American Jobs Plan, and the assumption that they will pass, are incorporated into the budget. However, the budget does not include another round of direct stimulus checks, indicating once again that another round of direct payments to most Americans is unlikely to take place.

“The levels of taxation and spending in Mr. Biden’s plans would expand the federal fiscal footprint to levels rarely seen in the postwar era, to fund investments that his administration says are crucial to keeping America competitive,” the Times analysis said.

“That includes money for roads, water pipes, broadband internet, electric vehicle charging stations and advanced manufacturing research. It also envisions funding for affordable child care, universal prekindergarten, a national paid leave program and a host of other initiatives. Spending on national defense would also grow, though it would decline as a share of the economy.”

The newspaper also noted that the Administration doesn’t appear worried about deficits or inflation fears, with interest rates low.

“Writ large, the budget proposal, which the White House is expected to formally lay out on Friday, is an unabashed call for a bigger role for government in the U.S. economy, bringing spending to a quarter of the nation’s annual output, larger than any level before the pandemic,” The Hill said of the reports of Biden’s budget plans. The Hill added that the budget will assume an increase in military spending.

In addition, The Washington Post reported that Biden has been criticized for dropping promises of student debt forgiveness from his likely budget proposal, among other campaign promises from 2020.

"The President’s budget will focus on advancing the historic legislative agenda he’s already put forward for this year," Rob Friedlander, spokesman for the White House budget office, told the newspaper. "The budget won’t propose other new initiatives but will put together the full picture of how these proposals would advance economic growth and shared prosperity while also putting our country on a sound fiscal course.”

The budget, the Times said, is a request to Congress, and probably won’t pass in identical form to what was proposed by the administration. Often, the presidential proposal is more of a wish list, per Politifact, one that kicks off a long process which is then kicked to Congress. While Biden is dealing with Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, those majorities are slim, meaning the administration would likely have trouble getting everything it wants.

 Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Rachel Bucchino

Politics,

President Joe Biden is expected to unveil a $6 trillion budget on Friday as the White House pursues sweeping proposals to improve the nation’s infrastructure and U.S. economy, The New York Times reported.

President Joe Biden is expected to unveil a $6 trillion budget on Friday as the White House pursues sweeping proposals to improve the nation’s infrastructure and U.S. economy, The New York Times reported.

The proposal would bring federal spending levels to their highest sustained level since World War II, according to the Times.

Documents obtained by the publication indicate that the federal government would spend $6 trillion in the 2022 fiscal year, rising to $8.2 trillion by the year 2031.

The budget comes as negotiations between congressional Republicans and the White House over an infrastructure bill have hit a brick wall in recent weeks, as GOP lawmakers balk at supporting a multi-trillion-dollar initiative that isn’t targeted toward physical infrastructure. Instead, Senate Republicans introduced a $928 billion infrastructure counteroffer Thursday morning, one that’s already received pushback from Democrats. The budget, however, highlights the scope of the administration’s spending compared to Republicans.

Biden’s two-part agenda—Americans Jobs Plan and American Families Plan—would be funded by major tax hikes on wealthy individuals and corporations, which would largely shrink the budget deficits in the 2030s. Administration officials have also noted that the president’s legislative agenda would be offset by the tax increases over the next 15 years.

The agenda would, however, largely boost deficits in the meantime as the federal government pivots to borrowing to help fund its plans. That would raise the federal budget deficit to $1.8 trillion in 2022.

The country’s total debt burden would also climb to 117 percent of gross domestic product by the end of the decade, surpassing its World War II-era record in 2025, according to the Times.

It’s unusual for presidential budgets to be passed in their exact structure, as they’ve served primarily as a move for presidents to convey the administration’s legislative priorities.

“The President’s budget will focus on advancing the historic legislative agenda he’s already put forward for this year,” Rob Friedlander, a spokesman for the White House budget office, said in a statement last week. “The budget won’t propose other new initiatives but will put together the full picture of how these proposals would advance economic growth and shared prosperity while also putting our country on a sound fiscal course.”

The budget only contains the $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal, $1.8 trillion families plan and $1.5 trillion in proposed discretionary spending. It does not include other major proposals that Biden has stood behind, like the nation’s unemployment insurance program.

Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.

Stephen Silver

Propane Shortage,

Now, there are concerns about a different kind of gas shortage: one of propane gas.

Earlier this month, especially after the Colonial Pipeline shut down, there were concerns about gasoline shortages, that for some recalled the 1970s. The pipeline, however, was repaired within a week, making the crisis a short-lived one.

Now, there are concerns about a different kind of gas shortage: one of propane gas.

WFSB reported this week that propane has been rising in price, with the vice president of Connecticut Propane telling the news station that demand has increased to the point of prices rising. That could mean trouble either for those who use propane to heat their pools or to power their barbecue grills.

“We are swamped now with customers calling for their pool heat right now because a lot of people are still at home because of the pandemic,” that vice president, Danielle Gjonbalaj, told the station. Much like with other power, supply was affected by the Texas deep freeze earlier this year.

“We’re just trying to secure enough for our customers. We know we have enough storage for our customers and we’re trying to keep that margin low,” she said.

CBS Los Angeles had reported earlier this month of a nationwide shortage of pool supplies, including chlorine tablets and propane tanks, with the price of chlorine tablets, in particular, doubling over the course of the last year.

Not only that, but Natural Gas Intelligence reported in early May about the threat of winter shortages of propane, citing natural gas producer Antero Resources Corp.

“U.S. domestic propane buyers will need to outbid export markets this summer to build sufficient inventories for this upcoming winter,” Antero’s David Cannelongo, vice president of liquids marketing and transportation, told that publication. “That, in turn, will drive U.S. and international liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pricing higher.”

The report added that propane supplies are “currently running about 34% below the five-year average and inventories are 30% below last year’s levels.”

LP Gas reported in late April, citing the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), that propane prices rose 30 percent during the 2020-’21 heating season (i.e., the winter) in the United States.

“U.S. average residential propane prices increased by more than 52 cents a gallon, or 30 percent, during the 2020-21 heating season, which began Oct. 1 and ended March 31,” the report said. “The increase in prices can be attributed primarily to higher crude oil prices, seasonal withdrawals from propane inventory and increased global demand for U.S. propane exports, the EIA says. The price change was the largest within-season increase in residential propane prices since the 2013-14 season when propane markets tightened because of a polar vortex and low inventories.”

Canada suffered a propane shortage in late 2019, following a strike by rail workers north of the border.

"The propane supplier yesterday, called and said, at this point the agricultural supply of propane is shut off, so we're done until we get a new supply of propane in harvesting,” a corn farmer told CTV News in Canada.

 Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Rachel Bucchino

2020 Election,

A majority of Republicans do not believe that President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election was legitimate, according to a new poll.

A majority of Republicans do not believe that President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election was legitimate, according to a new poll.

The poll, released by Quinnipiac University on Wednesday, found that 66 percent of Republican participants said that Biden’s election victory was not legitimate, while 25 percent of Republicans said it was legitimate. 

Among all poll participants, 64 percent said Biden’s victory was legitimate, while 29 percent said it was not.

The poll’s results come months after former President Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol building on Jan. 6, arguing that the 2020 presidential election results were “rigged” against Trump and “stolen.”

Another poll released this week found that 56 percent of Republicans believe the election was rigged or the result of illegal voting and 53 percent think Trump is still the rightful president.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, 66 percent of Republicans would like to see Trump run again after experiencing defeat in the 2020 presidential election and 85 percent of Republicans polled said they would prefer to see candidates running for office that mostly align and agree with Trump.

“The numbers fly in the face of any predictions that Donald Trump’s political future is in decline. By a substantial majority, Republicans: (1) believe the election was stolen from him, (2) want Trump to run again, and (3), if they can’t vote for Trump, prefer someone who agrees with him,” Tim Malloy, Quinnipiac University polling analyst, said.

The poll’s findings indicate that Trump still maintains an iron-like grip over the GOP, despite his inability to digitally communicate with voters as the former president has been banned either temporarily or permanently from major social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook for his involvement in the insurrection on the Capitol.

Trump has also been committed to winning back the House and Senate in the 2022 midterm elections, as he’s endorsed a number of candidates and is expected to host several political rallies.

The former president has been reportedly working with former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) to craft a new policy agenda and has sat down with former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) at Mar-a-Lago in recent weeks as Republicans pivot their focus on gaining seats in both congressional chambers.

The Quinnipiac University poll surveyed 1,316 adults between May 18 and 24 with a margin of error of 2.7 percent.

Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.

Eli Fuhrman

Stimulus Payments,

The IRS has announced that it has begun the process of distributing another batch of third-round federal stimulus payments.

The IRS has announced that it has begun the process of distributing another batch of third-round federal stimulus payments. With recent batches, the IRS has sought to distribute new payments on a weekly basis. The lack of an announcement last week regarding the distribution of a new batch of payments added to the speculation that the IRS’ campaign to distribute the payments is approaching its end.

In its announcement, however, the IRS indicated that the newest batch of stimulus payments includes two weeks’ worth of payments. The newest batch includes a total of 1.8 million payments worth a total of roughly $3.5 billion. This is larger than the previous two batches, which set consecutive markers for the smallest batches of third-round stimulus payments to date, although as mentioned this most recent batch is meant to include payments covering the last two weeks.

Like the other most recent batches of stimulus payments, this batch is made up primarily of payments sent out to those people whose eligibility for stimulus payments is dependent on the processing of their 2020 tax returns by the IRS. This includes more than 900,000 payments worth roughly $1.9 billion distributed to those people about whom the IRS did not have sufficient information to send payment prior to receiving their 2020 tax returns.

In addition, the most recent batch of payments includes over 900,000 of what the IRS calls “plus-up” payments. These supplemental payments are designed for those people whose initial eligibility for a third-round stimulus payment of up to $1,400 was made based on information contained in their 2019 tax returns, but whose 2020 returns indicate a loss of income or a change in dependent status that entitles them to more money. About $1.6 billion worth of supplemental plus-up payments were distributed as part of the most recent batch of payments.

About half of the payments sent out in the most recent batch were distributed as direct deposit payments, while the remaining 900,000 were sent as paper checks.

This batch of payments brings the total number of payments distributed as part of the third round of stimulus payments to almost 167 million, with a total value of roughly $391 billion. The American Rescue Plan earmarked $410 billion for use in the third round of stimulus payments.

The IRS has said that it will continue to distribute the remainder of the payments on a weekly basis.

Eli Fuhrman is a contributing writer for The National Interest.

Eli Fuhrman

PPP Loan,

Specifically, for a loan to be totally forgiven, employers must have maintained both the same number of employees and the same level of compensation for those employees – including wages, bonuses and benefits – and must have spent at least 60 percent of the loan money on payroll costs.

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is a small business loan program created by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act passed in March 2020, and subsequently reinforced by additional COVID-19 relief legislation passed in December of that year. The loan is potentially forgivable and is designed to help small businesses ensure that they can pay up to eight weeks’ worth of payroll costs as well as pay interest on mortgages, utilities, and rent. The PPP exists alongside relief measured targeted at specific industries, such as the Restaurant Revitalization Funds that are designed to support the particularly hard-hit restaurant and bar industries.

The PPP has run into some significant problems, however, with fraud, in particular, emerging as a major concern; rather than use the funds to pay and hire back workers, as they are intended for, some employers have used the money they have received from PPP loans to pay for personal expenses such as cars, housing, and other luxury items. In one such case, a New England man attempted to fake his own death to escape charges of fraud after he and an associate attempted to fraudulently claim a $500,000 PPP loan.

More recently, it was announced that the PPP program was nearly out of funds available for financing forgivable loans. This announcement came several weeks ahead of the May 31 deadline for PPP loan applications, and as a result, most new loan applications would not be considered. Now, the millions of potential applicants are scrambling in an effort to secure loans from the few overwhelmed lenders still offering them, while hundreds of thousands of people who had already submitted applications – some of them several weeks ago – are left wondering about the status of their PPP loan applications.

Under the PPP, roughly 3.3 million loans out of a total of 5.2 million loans made last year have been forgiven, while $81.5 billion worth of loans is under review with $159.1 billion available for applications for loan forgiveness.

For those with applications pending, or those hoping to submit applications for loan forgiveness, there are some important eligibility criteria that will determine whether or not an application will be approved.

Specifically, for a loan to be totally forgiven, employers must have maintained both the same number of employees and the same level of compensation for those employees – including wages, bonuses and benefits – and must have spent at least 60 percent of the loan money on payroll costs. In addition, the remainder of the money must have been spent on eligible expenses such as operating costs, mortgage payments, utilities, personal protective equipment for employees, and property damage that resulted from civil unrest and was not covered by insurance.

Important to note is that if employers spent most, but not all, of their loan money on eligible expenses they can still have the loan partially forgiven.

Eli Fuhrman is a contributing writer for The National Interest.

Eli Fuhrman

Plus-Up Payment,

The IRS is continuing to send out what it refers to as “plus-up” payments, or supplemental stimulus payments available to those people who did not receive all of the up to $1,400 that they were entitled to as part of the third round of federal stimulus payments.

The IRS is continuing to send out what it refers to as “plus-up” payments, or supplemental stimulus payments available to those people who did not receive all of the up to $1,400 that they were entitled to as part of the third round of federal stimulus payments.

When the IRS began to determine eligibility for third round stimulus payments, which were brought about as part of the American Rescue Plan passed in March, it did so based on information contained in people’s 2019 tax returns, which at the time represented the most recently available data. As people began to submit their 2020 tax returns, however, the IRS undertook a review of those returns to determine if those filers had experienced a loss of income or a change in dependent status in the last year that would entitle them to a larger stimulus payment than the one they initially received. Those who did have since become the targets of these supplemental plus-up payments.

The eligibility requirements themselves did not change: full payments of $1,400 are available to individuals making up to $75,000 and to heads of households and married couples filing jointly making up to $112,500 and $150,000, respectively. Partial payments are then available to individuals making up to $80,000, heads of households making up to $120,000, and to couples filing jointly who make up to $160,000. Those making more are not eligible for a payment.

The distribution of plus-up payments has been a major focus for the IRS in its most recent batches of stimulus payments, with the batch announced this week included 900,000 plus-up payments with a total value of roughly $1.6 billion. The IRS has so far distributed a total 7 million plus-up payments this year.

Along with plus-up payments, the IRS has also been focusing on sending payments to those people about whom it did not have sufficient information before receiving their 2020 tax returns.

Those people who are eligible for a plus-up payment but have not yet received one – along with those people who have not yet received their stimulus payment at all – will do so once the IRS finishes processing their returns. Prior to the May 17 tax day deadline, the IRS was still working through a significant backlog of unprocessed 2020 tax returns, resulting in delays to both tax refunds and stimulus payments dependent on the processing of returns.

Those people who filed for an extension on their taxes, and who believe they are eligible for a plus-up payment, can still receive their supplemental payment as long as their returns are filed and processed by August 16. For those who ultimately do not end up receiving their plus-up payments, they may be able to claim their outstanding money during next year’s tax season via a recovery rebate credit; in order to do so, it is important that they keep hold of the IRS-issued confirmation notice that they received along with their initial stimulus payment.

Eli Fuhrman is a contributing writer for The National Interest.

Kris Osborn

People's Liberation Army, China

It can't fly, but it does take some of the work off of its human wearer's muscles - which can be useful, especially at high altitudes with little oxygen.

Here's What You Need To Remember: Pictures of the Chinese exoskeleton closely resemble several U.S. systems which have been under development for several years. This is by no means surprising, as the PLA often produces platforms and technologies which bear striking similarities to U.S. systems often just a few years later. 

The Chinese military appears to have developed its own combat-specific Exoskeleton Iron Man suit intended to optimize warrior performance at high altitudes where human energy levels are compromised by atmospheric conditions. 

The Chinese government-backed Global Times newspaper announced that Chinese scientists have built a 4-kilogram exoskeleton to save up to 10 percent of the human energy typically expended during walking, climbing or carrying goods and about 80 percent of the energy needed to stand. 

“Thanks to the usage of carbon fiber materials, the exoskeleton weighs only about 4 kilograms, and it is very durable despite possible rough usages in high-altitude, mountainous regions, the developer said, noting that to counter the extreme cold and wear-and-tear issues, the equipment does not contain any plastic,” the Global Times reports. 

A Chinese scientist quoted by the paper says that certain standard kinds of equipment such as drones or robots might have trouble maneuvering in various kinds of rigorous, uneven, rocky or high-altitude terrain, necessitating a continued need for manual work and human activity. 

“But in high-altitude regions, due to the lack of oxygen, goods that weigh 1 kilogram feel like 5 kilograms, and at an elevation of 3,500 meters, a human being’s physical capabilities decay to only 70-75 percent of normal level, the Chinese expert said. 

Interestingly, pictures of the Chinese exoskeleton closely resemble several U.S. systems which have been under development for several years. This is by no means surprising, as the PLA often produces platforms and technologies which bear striking similarities to U.S. systems often just a few years later. 

However, despite the appearance of a potential “rip off,” it is by no means clear that Chinese exoskeletons could in any way mirror the fast-emerging series of U.S. iron-man-like suit technologies, many of which are already showing great promise. 

The Army is testing and prototyping self-generating “Ironman-like” soldier exoskeletons, designed to massively change combat missions by supporting soldier movement, generating electricity, powering weapons systems, and substantially lowering the weight burden of what troops carry in war.

The Army is currently exploring various configurations for exoskeletons, some of which include a suspended backpack, which can slide up and down on a spring, having little or no weight impact on the soldier.

For example, Army evaluators have been assessing a Lockheed-built FORTIS knee-stress-release-device exoskeleton with soldiers in recent years. Using independent actuators, motors and lightweight conformal structures, lithium ion battery powered FORTIS allows soldiers to carry 180 pounds up five flights of stairs while expending less energy.

FORTIS is built with a conformal upper structure that works on a belt attached to the waist. The belt connects with flexible hip sensors throughout the systems. These sensors tell the computer where the soldier is in space along with the speed and velocity of the movements.

Also, not only is the U.S. Army making fast progress toward near-term technologies, such as FORTIS, but the service is also deeply immersed in several scientific research projects intended to engineer a new generation of electrical power-generating exoskeleton technology. One system in particular, which involves experts with the Army Research Laboratory, is working on a breakthrough system able to produce electricity which can power batteries, increasing the longevity of soldier’s missions. The concept, mechanical engineers with the Army’s Communications Electronics Research, Development and Engineering Center told The National Interest earlier in the developmental process, is to design an energy-harvesting system which “can derive energy from the motion of a soldier as they are moving around.” 

An added advantage is that, while the technology harvests energy from the motion of soldiers, it also simultaneously eases the strain on their joints and muscles due to its apparatus, developers said. 

Kris Osborn is the defense editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

This article first appeared last year and is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters.